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eyue99
2021-12-17
把股市砸下来,人们就出去找工作了🤓
比鹰派美联储更可怕!警惕未来这两大风险
eyue99
2021-05-04
业绩提升不了就辞职
抱歉,原内容已删除
eyue99
2021-04-11
老虎自己没有交易通道?怎么用的是盈透的通道?
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去老虎APP查看更多动态
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CreditSights 的欧洲信贷策略师 Tomas Hirst 所指出的那样,很难完全相信两个月前被休假的数百万人立即找到了全职工作。同时,对采购经理的调查显示,英国经济已经受到 Omicron 的影响。结果,期待英国央行更加谨慎的交易员对加息措手不及。</p>\n<p>同样,美国的政策制定者也可能忽略,劳动年龄人口在就业中的比例仍低于疫情前的水平,英国和欧元区的情况也是如此。一些经济学家正在推动这些经济体已经处于充分就业状态的想法,因为疫情带来了根深蒂固的变化,这将使一些人不想重返劳动力市场。但这与 2008 年危机后所支持的观点出奇地相似,后者最终导致劳动力市场复苏乏力且缓慢。</p>\n<p>更有可能的是,求职者只是需要时间与雇主进行匹配,并且可以达到或超过疫情前的就业率。然而,尽管新的新冠变异增加了不确定性,但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>在此之前就已经开始了紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>今天定价的加息并不是特别令人担忧,但正如低通胀不断提高所谓充分就业的标准一样,高通胀可能会继续降低它。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比鹰派美联储更可怕!警惕未来这两大风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比鹰派美联储更可怕!警惕未来这两大风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-17 09:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月议息会议上,美联储加快收紧政策步伐,而风险资产此前已开始为全球央行政策转向进行定价。不过展望未来,有两大风险仍未被市场消化。</p>\n<p>12月议息会议上,美联储为明年提前加息,以及加息幅度超过此前预期做好了准备。其在明年3月之前完成债券购买的举措为春季首次加息提供了可能性。这种转变有两个主要原因:第一,通胀的上升并不像美联储想象的那样转瞬即逝,尤其是一直在推高商品价格的供应链问题。第二,尽管对工人的需求高涨,但许多人还没有重新进入劳动力市场。这将提高工资水平,而且在企业能够将成本转嫁给消费者的程度上,可能会加剧整体通胀。</p>\n<p>但一个尚未被市场消化的风险是,明年三次加息可能不足以冷却通胀。例如,新型冠状病毒变异进一步加剧供应链瓶颈,或者可能人们继续拒绝回去找工作,工资压力进一步增加。更高的通胀也可能在消费者预期中变得根深蒂固,很难再恢复到从前。</p>\n<p>在这种情况下,美联储会不断将利率预期上调——这对投资者来说尤其令人担忧,因为从历史上看,当美联储落后于收益率曲线,它往往最终会加快收紧步伐,让经济陷入衰退。</p>\n<p>另一个风险是,美联储可能过早地失去了耐心。最近,有迹象表明供应链问题正在缓解,而11月份的就业报告显示,有大批人进入劳动力市场。家庭似乎不会在2022年得到政府的另一轮救济款项,这将使需求的一个重要来源消失,通胀和经济都可能比美联储预期的要冷。</p>\n<p>最好的结果是,美联储在12月议息会议上转鹰之后,通胀和就业都能朝目标方向发展。最糟糕的情况是,Omicron变异病例激增,造成了巨大的经济损失,而美联储已启动紧缩周期。</p>\n<p><b>欧美央行转鹰,或忽视了就业目标</b></p>\n<p>在美联储转鹰之后,英国央行周四出乎市场意料地加息。上个月,英国央行以即将出炉的劳动力市场报告为条件,该报告据称将澄清英国9月份结束休假计划是否导致失业率上升。当数据公布时,情况几乎没有恶化,这为之后英国央行的行动打开了大门。</p>\n<p>然而,正如 CreditSights 的欧洲信贷策略师 Tomas Hirst 所指出的那样,很难完全相信两个月前被休假的数百万人立即找到了全职工作。同时,对采购经理的调查显示,英国经济已经受到 Omicron 的影响。结果,期待英国央行更加谨慎的交易员对加息措手不及。</p>\n<p>同样,美国的政策制定者也可能忽略,劳动年龄人口在就业中的比例仍低于疫情前的水平,英国和欧元区的情况也是如此。一些经济学家正在推动这些经济体已经处于充分就业状态的想法,因为疫情带来了根深蒂固的变化,这将使一些人不想重返劳动力市场。但这与 2008 年危机后所支持的观点出奇地相似,后者最终导致劳动力市场复苏乏力且缓慢。</p>\n<p>更有可能的是,求职者只是需要时间与雇主进行匹配,并且可以达到或超过疫情前的就业率。然而,尽管新的新冠变异增加了不确定性,但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>在此之前就已经开始了紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>今天定价的加息并不是特别令人担忧,但正如低通胀不断提高所谓充分就业的标准一样,高通胀可能会继续降低它。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196651481","content_text":"12月议息会议上,美联储加快收紧政策步伐,而风险资产此前已开始为全球央行政策转向进行定价。不过展望未来,有两大风险仍未被市场消化。\n12月议息会议上,美联储为明年提前加息,以及加息幅度超过此前预期做好了准备。其在明年3月之前完成债券购买的举措为春季首次加息提供了可能性。这种转变有两个主要原因:第一,通胀的上升并不像美联储想象的那样转瞬即逝,尤其是一直在推高商品价格的供应链问题。第二,尽管对工人的需求高涨,但许多人还没有重新进入劳动力市场。这将提高工资水平,而且在企业能够将成本转嫁给消费者的程度上,可能会加剧整体通胀。\n但一个尚未被市场消化的风险是,明年三次加息可能不足以冷却通胀。例如,新型冠状病毒变异进一步加剧供应链瓶颈,或者可能人们继续拒绝回去找工作,工资压力进一步增加。更高的通胀也可能在消费者预期中变得根深蒂固,很难再恢复到从前。\n在这种情况下,美联储会不断将利率预期上调——这对投资者来说尤其令人担忧,因为从历史上看,当美联储落后于收益率曲线,它往往最终会加快收紧步伐,让经济陷入衰退。\n另一个风险是,美联储可能过早地失去了耐心。最近,有迹象表明供应链问题正在缓解,而11月份的就业报告显示,有大批人进入劳动力市场。家庭似乎不会在2022年得到政府的另一轮救济款项,这将使需求的一个重要来源消失,通胀和经济都可能比美联储预期的要冷。\n最好的结果是,美联储在12月议息会议上转鹰之后,通胀和就业都能朝目标方向发展。最糟糕的情况是,Omicron变异病例激增,造成了巨大的经济损失,而美联储已启动紧缩周期。\n欧美央行转鹰,或忽视了就业目标\n在美联储转鹰之后,英国央行周四出乎市场意料地加息。上个月,英国央行以即将出炉的劳动力市场报告为条件,该报告据称将澄清英国9月份结束休假计划是否导致失业率上升。当数据公布时,情况几乎没有恶化,这为之后英国央行的行动打开了大门。\n然而,正如 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