+关注
准备好成为传说吧
暂无个人介绍
IP属地：中国香港
31
关注
1
粉丝
4
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
准备好成为传说吧
2023-12-15
应该不会创新低了，最多在现在的点数附近徘徊，等明年美国降息就有希望！
准备好成为传说吧
2023-12-15
作为小米的迷你股东必须站小米啊，等哪天华为上市了再考虑站华为
准备好成为传说吧
2023-12-14
假如时光倒流，我会早点开始炒股，从中吸取经验，不会在2021年入市做韭菜
准备好成为传说吧
2023-12-14
最疯狂的一次其实是上10倍杠杆打新港股，结果浪费1000多利息还没中签。。。
准备好成为传说吧
2023-12-14
好久没来啦，打个卡。大家今年赚钱了吗？
准备好成为传说吧
2022-05-16
👍
@格隆汇:若2008年重现，第一个倒下的国家会是谁？
准备好成为传说吧
2022-01-05
首次发帖试一下
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3574510287275991","uuid":"3574510287275991","gmtCreate":1611416777945,"gmtModify":1641324856252,"name":"准备好成为传说吧","pinyin":"zbhcwcsbzhunbeihaochengweichuanshuoba","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":31,"tweetSize":7,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":4,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"中国香港","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":252116681306336,"gmtCreate":1702570234095,"gmtModify":1702570235869,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该不会创新低了，最多在现在的点数附近徘徊，等明年美国降息就有希望！","listText":"应该不会创新低了，最多在现在的点数附近徘徊，等明年美国降息就有希望！","text":"应该不会创新低了，最多在现在的点数附近徘徊，等明年美国降息就有希望！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252116681306336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252115429609480,"gmtCreate":1702570018457,"gmtModify":1702570020280,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作为小米的迷你股东必须站小米啊，等哪天华为上市了再考虑站华为","listText":"作为小米的迷你股东必须站小米啊，等哪天华为上市了再考虑站华为","text":"作为小米的迷你股东必须站小米啊，等哪天华为上市了再考虑站华为","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252115429609480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252108977426656,"gmtCreate":1702568353265,"gmtModify":1702568355930,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"假如时光倒流，我会早点开始炒股，从中吸取经验，不会在2021年入市做韭菜","listText":"假如时光倒流，我会早点开始炒股，从中吸取经验，不会在2021年入市做韭菜","text":"假如时光倒流，我会早点开始炒股，从中吸取经验，不会在2021年入市做韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252108977426656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252108555141376,"gmtCreate":1702568288309,"gmtModify":1702568367501,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最疯狂的一次其实是上10倍杠杆打新港股，结果浪费1000多利息还没中签。。。","listText":"最疯狂的一次其实是上10倍杠杆打新港股，结果浪费1000多利息还没中签。。。","text":"最疯狂的一次其实是上10倍杠杆打新港股，结果浪费1000多利息还没中签。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252108555141376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252103893172480,"gmtCreate":1702567150133,"gmtModify":1702567210374,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好久没来啦，打个卡。大家今年赚钱了吗？","listText":"好久没来啦，打个卡。大家今年赚钱了吗？","text":"好久没来啦，打个卡。大家今年赚钱了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252103893172480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615910421,"gmtCreate":1652716140663,"gmtModify":1652716949507,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615910421","repostId":"615998755","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615998755,"gmtCreate":1652711239877,"gmtModify":1652715360301,"author":{"id":"39105730803552","authorId":"39105730803552","name":"格隆汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8774dfe20eceb38c9645128bb6e60684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"39105730803552","authorIdStr":"39105730803552"},"themes":[],"title":"若2008年重现，第一个倒下的国家会是谁？","htmlText":"历史上，美国通过美元霸权收割过很多国家。上世纪70年代，为了应对“滞涨”，美联储开启宽松货币政策。泛滥的美元资本涌入巴西、阿根廷等拉美国家，后者依靠大量举债外资发展经济，从1970年的212亿美元急速飙升至1980年的3287亿美元，累计增长15.5倍。没过多久，美联储调整货币政策，拉美国家债务危机爆发，资产价格因此大幅暴跌。等跌到白菜价了，美元资本强势杀回，狠狠收割了拉美国家。此后，拉美一蹶不振，无奈陷入“中等收入陷阱”。再后来，美元的霸权镰刀伸向日本。1985年，美英德法同日本在美国纽约广场饭店签订广场协议，逼迫日元大幅升值。大量的美元流入日本，导致日本国内的货币变轻，商品变重。楼市、股市一飞冲天，等火候差不多的时候，美元加息紧缩刺破泡沫，大量资本流出日本，金融资产持续暴跌。海量财富被卷走了，日本失去了30年。日本街头同样的套路，美元霸权攻击了泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚等东南亚国家，用金融手段洗劫、掏空这些国家积攒数十年的财富家底，还屡屡得手。但针对中国及中国香港，并不顺利。在2008年的激烈博弈中，美国内部危机先被引爆，危机蔓延并转嫁全球。有人说，今年新冠疫情大流行+全球大通胀+极高的债务水平（2021年债务303万亿，占全球GDP的351%）+全球楼市大泡沫等大背景下，海外主流央行开启疯狂的货币紧转弯，其实所面临的风险可能要超过2008年次贷危机之前的水平。2008年，美国次贷风暴点燃不过半个月的时间内，冰岛陷入全面崩盘，国家陷入“破产”。冰岛损失惨重，超过了1000多亿美元的外债，但国家 GDP 只有不到200亿美元。倘若2008年不幸再现，那么第一个倒下的会是谁？是阿根廷、巴西，还是目前资本看好的越南？01、洗劫泰国1970年代末，泰国推行出口导向国家经济发展战略。在当时欧美日低端附加值产业链也急需转移的大背景下，宽松的国际资本持续涌入泰国，泰国经济得以","listText":"历史上，美国通过美元霸权收割过很多国家。上世纪70年代，为了应对“滞涨”，美联储开启宽松货币政策。泛滥的美元资本涌入巴西、阿根廷等拉美国家，后者依靠大量举债外资发展经济，从1970年的212亿美元急速飙升至1980年的3287亿美元，累计增长15.5倍。没过多久，美联储调整货币政策，拉美国家债务危机爆发，资产价格因此大幅暴跌。等跌到白菜价了，美元资本强势杀回，狠狠收割了拉美国家。此后，拉美一蹶不振，无奈陷入“中等收入陷阱”。再后来，美元的霸权镰刀伸向日本。1985年，美英德法同日本在美国纽约广场饭店签订广场协议，逼迫日元大幅升值。大量的美元流入日本，导致日本国内的货币变轻，商品变重。楼市、股市一飞冲天，等火候差不多的时候，美元加息紧缩刺破泡沫，大量资本流出日本，金融资产持续暴跌。海量财富被卷走了，日本失去了30年。日本街头同样的套路，美元霸权攻击了泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚等东南亚国家，用金融手段洗劫、掏空这些国家积攒数十年的财富家底，还屡屡得手。但针对中国及中国香港，并不顺利。在2008年的激烈博弈中，美国内部危机先被引爆，危机蔓延并转嫁全球。有人说，今年新冠疫情大流行+全球大通胀+极高的债务水平（2021年债务303万亿，占全球GDP的351%）+全球楼市大泡沫等大背景下，海外主流央行开启疯狂的货币紧转弯，其实所面临的风险可能要超过2008年次贷危机之前的水平。2008年，美国次贷风暴点燃不过半个月的时间内，冰岛陷入全面崩盘，国家陷入“破产”。冰岛损失惨重，超过了1000多亿美元的外债，但国家 GDP 只有不到200亿美元。倘若2008年不幸再现，那么第一个倒下的会是谁？是阿根廷、巴西，还是目前资本看好的越南？01、洗劫泰国1970年代末，泰国推行出口导向国家经济发展战略。在当时欧美日低端附加值产业链也急需转移的大背景下，宽松的国际资本持续涌入泰国，泰国经济得以","text":"历史上，美国通过美元霸权收割过很多国家。上世纪70年代，为了应对“滞涨”，美联储开启宽松货币政策。泛滥的美元资本涌入巴西、阿根廷等拉美国家，后者依靠大量举债外资发展经济，从1970年的212亿美元急速飙升至1980年的3287亿美元，累计增长15.5倍。没过多久，美联储调整货币政策，拉美国家债务危机爆发，资产价格因此大幅暴跌。等跌到白菜价了，美元资本强势杀回，狠狠收割了拉美国家。此后，拉美一蹶不振，无奈陷入“中等收入陷阱”。再后来，美元的霸权镰刀伸向日本。1985年，美英德法同日本在美国纽约广场饭店签订广场协议，逼迫日元大幅升值。大量的美元流入日本，导致日本国内的货币变轻，商品变重。楼市、股市一飞冲天，等火候差不多的时候，美元加息紧缩刺破泡沫，大量资本流出日本，金融资产持续暴跌。海量财富被卷走了，日本失去了30年。日本街头同样的套路，美元霸权攻击了泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚等东南亚国家，用金融手段洗劫、掏空这些国家积攒数十年的财富家底，还屡屡得手。但针对中国及中国香港，并不顺利。在2008年的激烈博弈中，美国内部危机先被引爆，危机蔓延并转嫁全球。有人说，今年新冠疫情大流行+全球大通胀+极高的债务水平（2021年债务303万亿，占全球GDP的351%）+全球楼市大泡沫等大背景下，海外主流央行开启疯狂的货币紧转弯，其实所面临的风险可能要超过2008年次贷危机之前的水平。2008年，美国次贷风暴点燃不过半个月的时间内，冰岛陷入全面崩盘，国家陷入“破产”。冰岛损失惨重，超过了1000多亿美元的外债，但国家 GDP 只有不到200亿美元。倘若2008年不幸再现，那么第一个倒下的会是谁？是阿根廷、巴西，还是目前资本看好的越南？01、洗劫泰国1970年代末，泰国推行出口导向国家经济发展战略。在当时欧美日低端附加值产业链也急需转移的大背景下，宽松的国际资本持续涌入泰国，泰国经济得以","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad8aa40231c49ed1f40acd0364b3e59"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00397ee757676468ba8f37154175129d"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a160bba613c831a981c6c9a8c11c6141"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615998755","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695396264,"gmtCreate":1641320094755,"gmtModify":1641320094755,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"首次发帖试一下","listText":"首次发帖试一下","text":"首次发帖试一下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695396264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":252108977426656,"gmtCreate":1702568353265,"gmtModify":1702568355930,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"假如时光倒流，我会早点开始炒股，从中吸取经验，不会在2021年入市做韭菜","listText":"假如时光倒流，我会早点开始炒股，从中吸取经验，不会在2021年入市做韭菜","text":"假如时光倒流，我会早点开始炒股，从中吸取经验，不会在2021年入市做韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252108977426656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252115429609480,"gmtCreate":1702570018457,"gmtModify":1702570020280,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作为小米的迷你股东必须站小米啊，等哪天华为上市了再考虑站华为","listText":"作为小米的迷你股东必须站小米啊，等哪天华为上市了再考虑站华为","text":"作为小米的迷你股东必须站小米啊，等哪天华为上市了再考虑站华为","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252115429609480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252116681306336,"gmtCreate":1702570234095,"gmtModify":1702570235869,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该不会创新低了，最多在现在的点数附近徘徊，等明年美国降息就有希望！","listText":"应该不会创新低了，最多在现在的点数附近徘徊，等明年美国降息就有希望！","text":"应该不会创新低了，最多在现在的点数附近徘徊，等明年美国降息就有希望！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252116681306336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252108555141376,"gmtCreate":1702568288309,"gmtModify":1702568367501,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最疯狂的一次其实是上10倍杠杆打新港股，结果浪费1000多利息还没中签。。。","listText":"最疯狂的一次其实是上10倍杠杆打新港股，结果浪费1000多利息还没中签。。。","text":"最疯狂的一次其实是上10倍杠杆打新港股，结果浪费1000多利息还没中签。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252108555141376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":252103893172480,"gmtCreate":1702567150133,"gmtModify":1702567210374,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好久没来啦，打个卡。大家今年赚钱了吗？","listText":"好久没来啦，打个卡。大家今年赚钱了吗？","text":"好久没来啦，打个卡。大家今年赚钱了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252103893172480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615910421,"gmtCreate":1652716140663,"gmtModify":1652716949507,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615910421","repostId":"615998755","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615998755,"gmtCreate":1652711239877,"gmtModify":1652715360301,"author":{"id":"39105730803552","authorId":"39105730803552","name":"格隆汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8774dfe20eceb38c9645128bb6e60684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"39105730803552","authorIdStr":"39105730803552"},"themes":[],"title":"若2008年重现，第一个倒下的国家会是谁？","htmlText":"历史上，美国通过美元霸权收割过很多国家。上世纪70年代，为了应对“滞涨”，美联储开启宽松货币政策。泛滥的美元资本涌入巴西、阿根廷等拉美国家，后者依靠大量举债外资发展经济，从1970年的212亿美元急速飙升至1980年的3287亿美元，累计增长15.5倍。没过多久，美联储调整货币政策，拉美国家债务危机爆发，资产价格因此大幅暴跌。等跌到白菜价了，美元资本强势杀回，狠狠收割了拉美国家。此后，拉美一蹶不振，无奈陷入“中等收入陷阱”。再后来，美元的霸权镰刀伸向日本。1985年，美英德法同日本在美国纽约广场饭店签订广场协议，逼迫日元大幅升值。大量的美元流入日本，导致日本国内的货币变轻，商品变重。楼市、股市一飞冲天，等火候差不多的时候，美元加息紧缩刺破泡沫，大量资本流出日本，金融资产持续暴跌。海量财富被卷走了，日本失去了30年。日本街头同样的套路，美元霸权攻击了泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚等东南亚国家，用金融手段洗劫、掏空这些国家积攒数十年的财富家底，还屡屡得手。但针对中国及中国香港，并不顺利。在2008年的激烈博弈中，美国内部危机先被引爆，危机蔓延并转嫁全球。有人说，今年新冠疫情大流行+全球大通胀+极高的债务水平（2021年债务303万亿，占全球GDP的351%）+全球楼市大泡沫等大背景下，海外主流央行开启疯狂的货币紧转弯，其实所面临的风险可能要超过2008年次贷危机之前的水平。2008年，美国次贷风暴点燃不过半个月的时间内，冰岛陷入全面崩盘，国家陷入“破产”。冰岛损失惨重，超过了1000多亿美元的外债，但国家 GDP 只有不到200亿美元。倘若2008年不幸再现，那么第一个倒下的会是谁？是阿根廷、巴西，还是目前资本看好的越南？01、洗劫泰国1970年代末，泰国推行出口导向国家经济发展战略。在当时欧美日低端附加值产业链也急需转移的大背景下，宽松的国际资本持续涌入泰国，泰国经济得以","listText":"历史上，美国通过美元霸权收割过很多国家。上世纪70年代，为了应对“滞涨”，美联储开启宽松货币政策。泛滥的美元资本涌入巴西、阿根廷等拉美国家，后者依靠大量举债外资发展经济，从1970年的212亿美元急速飙升至1980年的3287亿美元，累计增长15.5倍。没过多久，美联储调整货币政策，拉美国家债务危机爆发，资产价格因此大幅暴跌。等跌到白菜价了，美元资本强势杀回，狠狠收割了拉美国家。此后，拉美一蹶不振，无奈陷入“中等收入陷阱”。再后来，美元的霸权镰刀伸向日本。1985年，美英德法同日本在美国纽约广场饭店签订广场协议，逼迫日元大幅升值。大量的美元流入日本，导致日本国内的货币变轻，商品变重。楼市、股市一飞冲天，等火候差不多的时候，美元加息紧缩刺破泡沫，大量资本流出日本，金融资产持续暴跌。海量财富被卷走了，日本失去了30年。日本街头同样的套路，美元霸权攻击了泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚等东南亚国家，用金融手段洗劫、掏空这些国家积攒数十年的财富家底，还屡屡得手。但针对中国及中国香港，并不顺利。在2008年的激烈博弈中，美国内部危机先被引爆，危机蔓延并转嫁全球。有人说，今年新冠疫情大流行+全球大通胀+极高的债务水平（2021年债务303万亿，占全球GDP的351%）+全球楼市大泡沫等大背景下，海外主流央行开启疯狂的货币紧转弯，其实所面临的风险可能要超过2008年次贷危机之前的水平。2008年，美国次贷风暴点燃不过半个月的时间内，冰岛陷入全面崩盘，国家陷入“破产”。冰岛损失惨重，超过了1000多亿美元的外债，但国家 GDP 只有不到200亿美元。倘若2008年不幸再现，那么第一个倒下的会是谁？是阿根廷、巴西，还是目前资本看好的越南？01、洗劫泰国1970年代末，泰国推行出口导向国家经济发展战略。在当时欧美日低端附加值产业链也急需转移的大背景下，宽松的国际资本持续涌入泰国，泰国经济得以","text":"历史上，美国通过美元霸权收割过很多国家。上世纪70年代，为了应对“滞涨”，美联储开启宽松货币政策。泛滥的美元资本涌入巴西、阿根廷等拉美国家，后者依靠大量举债外资发展经济，从1970年的212亿美元急速飙升至1980年的3287亿美元，累计增长15.5倍。没过多久，美联储调整货币政策，拉美国家债务危机爆发，资产价格因此大幅暴跌。等跌到白菜价了，美元资本强势杀回，狠狠收割了拉美国家。此后，拉美一蹶不振，无奈陷入“中等收入陷阱”。再后来，美元的霸权镰刀伸向日本。1985年，美英德法同日本在美国纽约广场饭店签订广场协议，逼迫日元大幅升值。大量的美元流入日本，导致日本国内的货币变轻，商品变重。楼市、股市一飞冲天，等火候差不多的时候，美元加息紧缩刺破泡沫，大量资本流出日本，金融资产持续暴跌。海量财富被卷走了，日本失去了30年。日本街头同样的套路，美元霸权攻击了泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚等东南亚国家，用金融手段洗劫、掏空这些国家积攒数十年的财富家底，还屡屡得手。但针对中国及中国香港，并不顺利。在2008年的激烈博弈中，美国内部危机先被引爆，危机蔓延并转嫁全球。有人说，今年新冠疫情大流行+全球大通胀+极高的债务水平（2021年债务303万亿，占全球GDP的351%）+全球楼市大泡沫等大背景下，海外主流央行开启疯狂的货币紧转弯，其实所面临的风险可能要超过2008年次贷危机之前的水平。2008年，美国次贷风暴点燃不过半个月的时间内，冰岛陷入全面崩盘，国家陷入“破产”。冰岛损失惨重，超过了1000多亿美元的外债，但国家 GDP 只有不到200亿美元。倘若2008年不幸再现，那么第一个倒下的会是谁？是阿根廷、巴西，还是目前资本看好的越南？01、洗劫泰国1970年代末，泰国推行出口导向国家经济发展战略。在当时欧美日低端附加值产业链也急需转移的大背景下，宽松的国际资本持续涌入泰国，泰国经济得以","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad8aa40231c49ed1f40acd0364b3e59"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00397ee757676468ba8f37154175129d"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a160bba613c831a981c6c9a8c11c6141"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615998755","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695396264,"gmtCreate":1641320094755,"gmtModify":1641320094755,"author":{"id":"3574510287275991","authorId":"3574510287275991","name":"准备好成为传说吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0df268ab4fd1aa14a30c82c5bf93cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574510287275991","authorIdStr":"3574510287275991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"首次发帖试一下","listText":"首次发帖试一下","text":"首次发帖试一下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695396264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
