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2021-07-30
$IT科技包装(ITP)$
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$东北社区银行(NECB)$
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2021-07-12
$IT科技包装(ITP)$
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2021-04-15
利好哪个票
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2021-03-26
$Ctd Holdings Inc(CYTH)$
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2021-03-20
什么意思?
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2021-03-17
这是打击报复吗[开心]
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2021-03-14
很好
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2021-02-26
华为永不造车[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
华为回应造车传闻:重申不造车,帮助车企造好车
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2021-02-22
梭哈✈️
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2021-02-22
$Ctd Holdings Inc(CYTH)$
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2021-02-19
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","listText":"这是打击报复吗[开心] ","text":"这是打击报复吗[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324171528","repostId":"2120904478","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326720113,"gmtCreate":1615716450432,"gmtModify":1703492353097,"author":{"id":"3574295790470636","authorId":"3574295790470636","name":"粉肠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0107bea6eb0c464151aeef32ea6d6f18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很好","listText":"很好","text":"很好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326720113","repostId":"2119993619","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368662697,"gmtCreate":1614319311319,"gmtModify":1703476299469,"author":{"id":"3574295790470636","authorId":"3574295790470636","name":"粉肠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0107bea6eb0c464151aeef32ea6d6f18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华为永不造车[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"华为永不造车[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"华为永不造车[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368662697","repostId":"1163942481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163942481","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614319025,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163942481?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 13:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华为回应造车传闻:重申不造车,帮助车企造好车","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163942481","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月26日,消息人士:华为计划推出自有品牌电动汽车;华为正和长安汽车、北汽蓝谷协商代工制造。受此消息影响,北汽蓝谷直线涨停,长安汽车大涨7%。就市场再次盛传的造车传闻,华为回应表示,公司策略不变:华为","content":"<p>2月26日,消息人士:华为计划推出自有品牌电动汽车;华为正和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>、<a 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Cyclo Therapeutics Files For Mixed Shelf Of Up To $100 Mln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-20 04:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>March 19 (Reuters) - Cyclo Therapeutics Inc :</p><p> * CYCLO THERAPEUTICS FILES FOR MIXED SHELF OF UP TO $100 MILLION - SEC FILING</p><p>Source : () Further company coverage: </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APR":"Apria, Inc.","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","CYTH":"Cyclo Therapeutics","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120499112","content_text":"March 19 (Reuters) - Cyclo Therapeutics Inc : * CYCLO THERAPEUTICS FILES FOR MIXED SHELF OF UP TO $100 MILLION - SEC FILINGSource : () Further company coverage: ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324171528,"gmtCreate":1615978661564,"gmtModify":1703495811843,"author":{"id":"3574295790470636","authorId":"3574295790470636","name":"粉肠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0107bea6eb0c464151aeef32ea6d6f18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是打击报复吗[开心] ","listText":"这是打击报复吗[开心] ","text":"这是打击报复吗[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324171528","repostId":"2120904478","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2120904478","pubTimestamp":1615963501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2120904478?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 14:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"5000亿贝壳的幻象","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120904478","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"贝壳找房(以下简称贝壳)董事长左晖,是2020年开发商最羡慕的人。\n2020年房地产行业的大事件,除了恒大债务危机,就是贝壳上市,市值超万科了,这带给开发商大佬们的震撼、慨叹、启迪,至今未息。\n如果说","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>找房(以下简称贝壳)董事长左晖,是2020年开发商最羡慕的人。</p>\n<p>2020年房地产行业的大事件,除了恒大债务危机,就是贝壳上市,市值超万科了,这带给开发商大佬们的震撼、慨叹、启迪,至今未息。</p>\n<p>如果说,房地产的互联网化在此之前还是镜花水月,是大佬们的不屑一顾或求而不得,贝壳的上市,则让他们看到了一个惊人的事实:房地产互联网真的可以变现,原本看不上的中介,身价也几百亿了。资本的游戏如此美妙。</p>\n<p>不过,左晖自有他的烦恼。3月16日,贝壳发布上市后的首份年报,虽然首次实现了盈利,但<b>其中超过一半是由新房交易带来的,贝壳引以为傲的ACN、楼盘字典,所谓护城河,并没能带来强劲的收入和利润增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>相反,新房、二手房正在接近天花板,扩张进入瓶颈期,且都面临区域市场更严厉的调控,以及规模增长、定价权带来的垄断风险。</b></p>\n<p>贝壳这个“独角兽”,撕下互联网的外衣,靠什么继续支撑5000亿的市值?在恒大、万科、龙湖等地产商纷纷自建平台,甚至介入二手房之后,贝壳的业务又如何增长?它的盈利状况,是否可持续?</p>\n<p>上市从来不是终点。摆在左晖面前的,都是难题。</p>\n<h2><b>沦为开发商代理?</b></h2>\n<p>毋庸置疑,贝壳已成为中国居住领域绝对的巨头。</p>\n<p>2020年,贝壳GTV(平台交易总额)3.5万亿,仅次于阿里,相当于3个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、5个美团。</p>\n<p>其中,新房1.38万亿GTV,占全国新房交易量的8%,是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>的1.8倍;1.94万亿的二手房GTV,占全国二手房交易量约四分之一。</p>\n<p>目前贝壳平台连接的经纪门店数量为4.69万家,经纪人接近50万,达到全国总量的四分之一。左晖的目标是,未来扩展到10万家门店、100万经纪人。</p>\n<p>2020年,<b>贝壳的新房交易营收首次超过了存量房交易营收,前者为379亿元,同比增长87.1%,高于后者的306亿元(同比仅增24.4%)。</b></p>\n<p>其中,非链家连接渠道完成的新房交易GTV同比增长102.7%至1.11万亿,贝壳没有公布由此带来的收入是多少。</p>\n<p>而非链家连接经纪人贡献的二手房GTV,虽然同比增长109.9%至9,281亿,但因此带来的收入仅有30亿。</p>\n<p><b>营收结构及增速的变化表明,新房交易已成为贝壳的主打业务和主要收入来源。</b></p>\n<p>两年前,左晖曾将链家比作开发商的“夜壶”,市场不好被拿来用,好了再放回去,“2019年新房GMV有15万亿+,真正通过外面渠道销售约20%,绝大多数还是靠开发商自销。二手房仍是贝壳的核心业务,新房GMV大概只占30%。”</p>\n<p><b>然而今天的贝壳,正在变得越来越像一家开发商代理公司。</b>占比40%-45%的新房交易量,以及超过一半的营收,让他们苦心建立的经纪人、楼盘“护城河”,越来越被服务于开发商了。</p>\n<p>虽然,开发商们并不希望通过贝壳这样的渠道卖房,因为佣金太高。渠道佣金起步1%,多则到10%,显然,通过渠道销售的房子越多,开发商的利润也就被分走的越多。</p>\n<p>但2018年四季度以来,市场的低迷让开发商找客户成了困难,链家和贝壳的“渠道费”高涨。有北京开发商人士对华尔街见闻表示,2017年之前链家收的北京新房渠道费用都在1%以下,2018年后逐渐提升到了3%以上。市场中也总有“贝壳推高房价”的质疑,因为高昂的渠道费,总要转嫁到购房者身上。</p>\n<h2><b>虚幻的“科技”标签</b></h2>\n<p>越来越多帮开发商卖房子的贝壳,与它讲给资本市场的故事,并不相符。</p>\n<p>10多年前,在北京干房屋中介的左晖,没想到有一天自己可以身价千亿,成为互联网大佬。</p>\n<p>但他确实是一个对互联网极其敏锐的人。2014年,在其他中介都还苦苦跑线下之时,链家网问世,同时开启上市计划,进行多轮融资。</p>\n<p>在资本的助推下,链家从北京到深圳、上海,疯狂收并购,高速网罗门店和经纪人;2018年年初,开放平台贝壳找房宣布成立,左晖把链家装进了贝壳,并邀请其他中介公司加入,引发了著名的贝壳、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>之战。</p>\n<p><b>2020年9月,贝壳上市,抛出产业互联网、科技公司的故事,市场和投资者给予极高的热情。</b></p>\n<p>贝壳股价很快超过了地产龙头万科的3000亿,摸高到6000亿,令一众开发商羡慕不已。作为股东的万科、融创,都在中期业绩会上,表达了对“互联网”贝壳的关注。</p>\n<p>在美股中概股里,贝壳股价仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、阿里、拼多多、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>。上市以来,贝壳股价涨幅已超过226%。</p>\n<p>贝壳的核心业务模式,是房屋交易平台、ACN(经纪人合作网络)模式,彭永东称,这是一个“门槛极高、大赛道,值得往十年去做”的领域。</p>\n<p><b>但时至今日,贝壳的收入和盈利模式仍来自于佣金和渠道费/分成,2020年,来自平台服务费的收入只有30亿。</b></p>\n<p>而当新房交易营收大过二手房,它和其他的中介代理比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002285\">世联行</a>、易居,又有什么区别?</p>\n<p><b>与其说它是平台,不如说是建立了统一规则的中介联盟,尤其是在新房交易上,对开发商拥有了很大的话语权。</b></p>\n<p>这样的贝壳值多少钱?资本市场是否高估?5029亿的市值,对应27.78亿元的净利润,市盈率为181,即便按美国会计准则调整后的57.20亿元来算,市盈率也在87.9,远高于其他科技公司。</p>\n<p>有人说,贝壳不应该算市盈率,应该看市销率、用PCF估值法,有人反驳,“亏损之前,投资人可以各种估值法说它股价多合理,赚钱了反而就打破幻想,原来这业务就赚这么点钱。”这时候反而觉得它更贵了。</p>\n<p>从股价表现来看,贝壳上市后股价最高涨至79.4美元/股,但随后贝壳给出一个定增,股价便再没上过79。</p>\n<p>“贝壳去年刚上市募资20多亿美金,三个月后又定增25亿,说明非常缺钱。股价70多美金的时候,定增价格定在58,说明贝壳自己都觉得贵”,一名投资者说。</p>\n<h2><b>定价权与垄断的风险</b></h2>\n<p>贝壳5000亿的市值,是基于GTV给出的,也就是规模,然而规模与垄断之间,天然地存在悖论。</p>\n<p><b>一方面,贝壳通过快速收并购,让投资者看到了它的规模和增长,并且拥有了区域市场的定价权,但另一方面,垄断或接近垄断面临政策风险。</b></p>\n<p>目前,贝壳并没有下沉到四五线市场,在它重点布局的部分一二线、强三线城市,占据市场成交量的50%。</p>\n<p><b>贝壳最被诟病的动作是垄断性定价。中原地产首席分析师张大伟指出,除了在部分区域市场实际上垄断外,贝壳最大的问题是拥有了定价权。</b></p>\n<p>首先是新房渠道业务针对B端开发商提价,由于2019年房地产新房市场普遍低迷,贝壳在部分城市的新房渠道费率上涨。比如在北京,2017年之前,新房渠道费率在1%以下,从2018年起提到2%-3%,2019年起开始达到5%-8%,部分去化艰难项目达到10%以上。</p>\n<p>从财报看,粗略来说,贝壳2020年新房的佣金费率(收入/GTV)大约为2.75%。</p>\n<p>2019年,包括天津等地城市政府部门专门发文,狙击渠道费,比如规定不能超过6%等。</p>\n<p><b>2020年,阿里旗下的天猫好房成立,郁亮、莫斌作为贝壳的股东方,也和其他200多家地产商都去站台,背后正是他们对贝壳高昂渠道费的反感。</b></p>\n<p>其次是针对C端普通购房者的佣金涨价。目前,全国主流城市大部分中介的佣金费率在1-2%之间,贝壳、链家的佣金费则往往更高。</p>\n<p>业绩会上,有人问贝壳CEO彭永东,贝壳在有些城市佣金已经提高到3%了,会不会推广到其他地方?彭永东没有正面回答,但他表示,<b>希望佣金的比例能符合中介提供的服务水准。</b></p>\n<p><b>事实上,华尔街见闻发现,贝壳在多个城市已经提价。</b>去年12月底,郑州贝壳系所有门店宣布上调中介收费标准至3%,今年2月18日起,重庆贝壳系宣布服务费用调整为卖方1%、买方2%,此前则为卖方0%,买方2%。</p>\n<p>房产交易是普通<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>一生中最大的财产交易,针对C端的佣金上调,引发大批购房者的反对呼声;2019年以来,业内多个“反壳联盟”横空出世,反对“贝壳一家独大”。</p>\n<p>景晖智库首席经济学家景晖认为,<b>今年贝壳还有可能增加中介经纪公司的平台费。</b></p>\n<p>“贝壳为了做独角兽,为了获得资本认可,一直采取高投入策略,走向垄断,而一旦形成垄断,各方面都会涨价。”胡景晖指出,定价权和垄断越高,风险越大。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFUN\">房天下控股</a>董事长莫天全认为,在二手房住房市场,如果一家公司或平台的市场占有率超过30%,理论上来说这家企业就可以左右市场价格走向,决定供需情况,更不用说交易环节费用的上涨。</p>\n<p><b>在二手房交易市场即将达到这一占有率的公司,只有贝壳。</b></p>\n<p>而针对互联网大平台的反垄断,国家层面的动作越来越多。去年11月至今,监管部门多次提出强化反垄断、防止资本无序扩张。</p>\n<p>对此贝壳不以为意。彭永东去年底回应,反垄断针对取得巨大市场份额的大型互联网公司,而贝壳成立刚两年半,未来还有很大的增长空间。</p>\n<p>胡景晖则认为,在房地产行业内,贝壳已经被打上垄断标签,“贝壳一直标榜流量、数据,在某种程度上,已经踩到线了”。</p>\n<h2><b>扩张陷入瓶颈</b></h2>\n<p>抛开垄断与否,看似风光的贝壳,暗流汹涌,扩张已经遇到了阻碍。</p>\n<p>贝壳整体交易额、净利润的增长,跟去年的特殊年份有很大关系。3月份,中国迅速走出疫情后,开发商急着卖房,叠加货币因素,新房交易量达到17.4万亿,再创历史新高。所以去年贝壳收入增长最快、最大的一部分,仍然是新房交易。</p>\n<p>胡景晖认为,新房市场越是接近峰值,越是意味着拐点到来,新房的再增长,最长维持不超过3-5年。</p>\n<p><b>贝壳还将面临更多的竞争者,分食市场。去年底,恒大房车宝上线,对标贝壳,万科、碧桂园、龙湖等大型房企,也纷纷成立了自己的房屋交易平台,这都将可能分走贝壳的流量。</b></p>\n<p>此外,过去几年,贝壳规模扩张太快,门店和经纪人数量的扩张,接下来面临瓶颈。据华尔街见闻了解,去年就有不少“退壳”的企业,“贝壳管理风格强硬,很多入驻企业并不适应,用统一标准来做全国市场是会出现问题的。”一些中介从业者说。</p>\n<p>而贝壳的立身之本,二手房市场,正面临前所未有的严厉调控。今年春节前后,以深圳、上海、杭州为代表的重点城市,首次出现强管控二手房房价的做法,并且针对中介平台不断出招。</p>\n<p>1月底,北京政府部门约谈中介机构,要求不能渲染、炒作房屋成交信息,减少带看次数等,其后贝壳开始隐藏每个小区的历史成交价格。</p>\n<p>没过几天,楼市火热的深圳出台二手房成交参考价新政,彻底打破了以贝壳为首的中介在二手房定价中的惯常玩法,贝壳的房源挂牌价格被迫下线。</p>\n<p>3月,杭州开始整顿中介市场秩序,贝壳系的链家门店、德佑门店被点名批评。杭州房管局还要求,中介平台展示的房源价格,和监管平台挂牌价格必须一致——这意味着,杭州也拿回了二手房价话语权。</p>\n<p><b>多个城市的二手房买卖陷入了博弈,交易量迅速转冷,巨变正在发生。</b></p>\n<p>从历史经验看,二手房市场在密集调控后会走入低谷,交易量的下滑,对贝壳这样的中间商的影响是巨大的。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>便指出,贝壳面临的风险包括,房地产市场周期性和潜在的监管逆风、竞争加剧,以及与网络商店/开发商的关系管理,不如预期。</p>\n<p><b>胡景晖认为,政府针对中介平台的强监管不会放松,贝壳想要继续扩张,面临很大挑战,尤其是反垄断,“房产交易关乎国计民生,这些不可能由一个上市公司掌控”。</b></p>\n<p>上市前,市场传言,贝壳在B轮融资中签署了对赌协议,若无法在2020年上市成功,则需要返还64亿元+8%的利息。</p>\n<p>如今,身价千亿的左晖,终究也不过是个资本工具人罢了。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5000亿贝壳的幻象</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5000亿贝壳的幻象\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 14:45 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624003><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>贝壳找房(以下简称贝壳)董事长左晖,是2020年开发商最羡慕的人。\n2020年房地产行业的大事件,除了恒大债务危机,就是贝壳上市,市值超万科了,这带给开发商大佬们的震撼、慨叹、启迪,至今未息。\n如果说,房地产的互联网化在此之前还是镜花水月,是大佬们的不屑一顾或求而不得,贝壳的上市,则让他们看到了一个惊人的事实:房地产互联网真的可以变现,原本看不上的中介,身价也几百亿了。资本的游戏如此美妙。\n不过,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624003\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b535c9a2fb31d3a8e79d1d3d90fd21a","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624003","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120904478","content_text":"贝壳找房(以下简称贝壳)董事长左晖,是2020年开发商最羡慕的人。\n2020年房地产行业的大事件,除了恒大债务危机,就是贝壳上市,市值超万科了,这带给开发商大佬们的震撼、慨叹、启迪,至今未息。\n如果说,房地产的互联网化在此之前还是镜花水月,是大佬们的不屑一顾或求而不得,贝壳的上市,则让他们看到了一个惊人的事实:房地产互联网真的可以变现,原本看不上的中介,身价也几百亿了。资本的游戏如此美妙。\n不过,左晖自有他的烦恼。3月16日,贝壳发布上市后的首份年报,虽然首次实现了盈利,但其中超过一半是由新房交易带来的,贝壳引以为傲的ACN、楼盘字典,所谓护城河,并没能带来强劲的收入和利润增长。\n相反,新房、二手房正在接近天花板,扩张进入瓶颈期,且都面临区域市场更严厉的调控,以及规模增长、定价权带来的垄断风险。\n贝壳这个“独角兽”,撕下互联网的外衣,靠什么继续支撑5000亿的市值?在恒大、万科、龙湖等地产商纷纷自建平台,甚至介入二手房之后,贝壳的业务又如何增长?它的盈利状况,是否可持续?\n上市从来不是终点。摆在左晖面前的,都是难题。\n沦为开发商代理?\n毋庸置疑,贝壳已成为中国居住领域绝对的巨头。\n2020年,贝壳GTV(平台交易总额)3.5万亿,仅次于阿里,相当于3个拼多多、5个美团。\n其中,新房1.38万亿GTV,占全国新房交易量的8%,是碧桂园的1.8倍;1.94万亿的二手房GTV,占全国二手房交易量约四分之一。\n目前贝壳平台连接的经纪门店数量为4.69万家,经纪人接近50万,达到全国总量的四分之一。左晖的目标是,未来扩展到10万家门店、100万经纪人。\n2020年,贝壳的新房交易营收首次超过了存量房交易营收,前者为379亿元,同比增长87.1%,高于后者的306亿元(同比仅增24.4%)。\n其中,非链家连接渠道完成的新房交易GTV同比增长102.7%至1.11万亿,贝壳没有公布由此带来的收入是多少。\n而非链家连接经纪人贡献的二手房GTV,虽然同比增长109.9%至9,281亿,但因此带来的收入仅有30亿。\n营收结构及增速的变化表明,新房交易已成为贝壳的主打业务和主要收入来源。\n两年前,左晖曾将链家比作开发商的“夜壶”,市场不好被拿来用,好了再放回去,“2019年新房GMV有15万亿+,真正通过外面渠道销售约20%,绝大多数还是靠开发商自销。二手房仍是贝壳的核心业务,新房GMV大概只占30%。”\n然而今天的贝壳,正在变得越来越像一家开发商代理公司。占比40%-45%的新房交易量,以及超过一半的营收,让他们苦心建立的经纪人、楼盘“护城河”,越来越被服务于开发商了。\n虽然,开发商们并不希望通过贝壳这样的渠道卖房,因为佣金太高。渠道佣金起步1%,多则到10%,显然,通过渠道销售的房子越多,开发商的利润也就被分走的越多。\n但2018年四季度以来,市场的低迷让开发商找客户成了困难,链家和贝壳的“渠道费”高涨。有北京开发商人士对华尔街见闻表示,2017年之前链家收的北京新房渠道费用都在1%以下,2018年后逐渐提升到了3%以上。市场中也总有“贝壳推高房价”的质疑,因为高昂的渠道费,总要转嫁到购房者身上。\n虚幻的“科技”标签\n越来越多帮开发商卖房子的贝壳,与它讲给资本市场的故事,并不相符。\n10多年前,在北京干房屋中介的左晖,没想到有一天自己可以身价千亿,成为互联网大佬。\n但他确实是一个对互联网极其敏锐的人。2014年,在其他中介都还苦苦跑线下之时,链家网问世,同时开启上市计划,进行多轮融资。\n在资本的助推下,链家从北京到深圳、上海,疯狂收并购,高速网罗门店和经纪人;2018年年初,开放平台贝壳找房宣布成立,左晖把链家装进了贝壳,并邀请其他中介公司加入,引发了著名的贝壳、58同城之战。\n2020年9月,贝壳上市,抛出产业互联网、科技公司的故事,市场和投资者给予极高的热情。\n贝壳股价很快超过了地产龙头万科的3000亿,摸高到6000亿,令一众开发商羡慕不已。作为股东的万科、融创,都在中期业绩会上,表达了对“互联网”贝壳的关注。\n在美股中概股里,贝壳股价仅次于台积电、阿里、拼多多、京东及百度。上市以来,贝壳股价涨幅已超过226%。\n贝壳的核心业务模式,是房屋交易平台、ACN(经纪人合作网络)模式,彭永东称,这是一个“门槛极高、大赛道,值得往十年去做”的领域。\n但时至今日,贝壳的收入和盈利模式仍来自于佣金和渠道费/分成,2020年,来自平台服务费的收入只有30亿。\n而当新房交易营收大过二手房,它和其他的中介代理比如世联行、易居,又有什么区别?\n与其说它是平台,不如说是建立了统一规则的中介联盟,尤其是在新房交易上,对开发商拥有了很大的话语权。\n这样的贝壳值多少钱?资本市场是否高估?5029亿的市值,对应27.78亿元的净利润,市盈率为181,即便按美国会计准则调整后的57.20亿元来算,市盈率也在87.9,远高于其他科技公司。\n有人说,贝壳不应该算市盈率,应该看市销率、用PCF估值法,有人反驳,“亏损之前,投资人可以各种估值法说它股价多合理,赚钱了反而就打破幻想,原来这业务就赚这么点钱。”这时候反而觉得它更贵了。\n从股价表现来看,贝壳上市后股价最高涨至79.4美元/股,但随后贝壳给出一个定增,股价便再没上过79。\n“贝壳去年刚上市募资20多亿美金,三个月后又定增25亿,说明非常缺钱。股价70多美金的时候,定增价格定在58,说明贝壳自己都觉得贵”,一名投资者说。\n定价权与垄断的风险\n贝壳5000亿的市值,是基于GTV给出的,也就是规模,然而规模与垄断之间,天然地存在悖论。\n一方面,贝壳通过快速收并购,让投资者看到了它的规模和增长,并且拥有了区域市场的定价权,但另一方面,垄断或接近垄断面临政策风险。\n目前,贝壳并没有下沉到四五线市场,在它重点布局的部分一二线、强三线城市,占据市场成交量的50%。\n贝壳最被诟病的动作是垄断性定价。中原地产首席分析师张大伟指出,除了在部分区域市场实际上垄断外,贝壳最大的问题是拥有了定价权。\n首先是新房渠道业务针对B端开发商提价,由于2019年房地产新房市场普遍低迷,贝壳在部分城市的新房渠道费率上涨。比如在北京,2017年之前,新房渠道费率在1%以下,从2018年起提到2%-3%,2019年起开始达到5%-8%,部分去化艰难项目达到10%以上。\n从财报看,粗略来说,贝壳2020年新房的佣金费率(收入/GTV)大约为2.75%。\n2019年,包括天津等地城市政府部门专门发文,狙击渠道费,比如规定不能超过6%等。\n2020年,阿里旗下的天猫好房成立,郁亮、莫斌作为贝壳的股东方,也和其他200多家地产商都去站台,背后正是他们对贝壳高昂渠道费的反感。\n其次是针对C端普通购房者的佣金涨价。目前,全国主流城市大部分中介的佣金费率在1-2%之间,贝壳、链家的佣金费则往往更高。\n业绩会上,有人问贝壳CEO彭永东,贝壳在有些城市佣金已经提高到3%了,会不会推广到其他地方?彭永东没有正面回答,但他表示,希望佣金的比例能符合中介提供的服务水准。\n事实上,华尔街见闻发现,贝壳在多个城市已经提价。去年12月底,郑州贝壳系所有门店宣布上调中介收费标准至3%,今年2月18日起,重庆贝壳系宣布服务费用调整为卖方1%、买方2%,此前则为卖方0%,买方2%。\n房产交易是普通老百姓一生中最大的财产交易,针对C端的佣金上调,引发大批购房者的反对呼声;2019年以来,业内多个“反壳联盟”横空出世,反对“贝壳一家独大”。\n景晖智库首席经济学家景晖认为,今年贝壳还有可能增加中介经纪公司的平台费。\n“贝壳为了做独角兽,为了获得资本认可,一直采取高投入策略,走向垄断,而一旦形成垄断,各方面都会涨价。”胡景晖指出,定价权和垄断越高,风险越大。\n房天下控股董事长莫天全认为,在二手房住房市场,如果一家公司或平台的市场占有率超过30%,理论上来说这家企业就可以左右市场价格走向,决定供需情况,更不用说交易环节费用的上涨。\n在二手房交易市场即将达到这一占有率的公司,只有贝壳。\n而针对互联网大平台的反垄断,国家层面的动作越来越多。去年11月至今,监管部门多次提出强化反垄断、防止资本无序扩张。\n对此贝壳不以为意。彭永东去年底回应,反垄断针对取得巨大市场份额的大型互联网公司,而贝壳成立刚两年半,未来还有很大的增长空间。\n胡景晖则认为,在房地产行业内,贝壳已经被打上垄断标签,“贝壳一直标榜流量、数据,在某种程度上,已经踩到线了”。\n扩张陷入瓶颈\n抛开垄断与否,看似风光的贝壳,暗流汹涌,扩张已经遇到了阻碍。\n贝壳整体交易额、净利润的增长,跟去年的特殊年份有很大关系。3月份,中国迅速走出疫情后,开发商急着卖房,叠加货币因素,新房交易量达到17.4万亿,再创历史新高。所以去年贝壳收入增长最快、最大的一部分,仍然是新房交易。\n胡景晖认为,新房市场越是接近峰值,越是意味着拐点到来,新房的再增长,最长维持不超过3-5年。\n贝壳还将面临更多的竞争者,分食市场。去年底,恒大房车宝上线,对标贝壳,万科、碧桂园、龙湖等大型房企,也纷纷成立了自己的房屋交易平台,这都将可能分走贝壳的流量。\n此外,过去几年,贝壳规模扩张太快,门店和经纪人数量的扩张,接下来面临瓶颈。据华尔街见闻了解,去年就有不少“退壳”的企业,“贝壳管理风格强硬,很多入驻企业并不适应,用统一标准来做全国市场是会出现问题的。”一些中介从业者说。\n而贝壳的立身之本,二手房市场,正面临前所未有的严厉调控。今年春节前后,以深圳、上海、杭州为代表的重点城市,首次出现强管控二手房房价的做法,并且针对中介平台不断出招。\n1月底,北京政府部门约谈中介机构,要求不能渲染、炒作房屋成交信息,减少带看次数等,其后贝壳开始隐藏每个小区的历史成交价格。\n没过几天,楼市火热的深圳出台二手房成交参考价新政,彻底打破了以贝壳为首的中介在二手房定价中的惯常玩法,贝壳的房源挂牌价格被迫下线。\n3月,杭州开始整顿中介市场秩序,贝壳系的链家门店、德佑门店被点名批评。杭州房管局还要求,中介平台展示的房源价格,和监管平台挂牌价格必须一致——这意味着,杭州也拿回了二手房价话语权。\n多个城市的二手房买卖陷入了博弈,交易量迅速转冷,巨变正在发生。\n从历史经验看,二手房市场在密集调控后会走入低谷,交易量的下滑,对贝壳这样的中间商的影响是巨大的。\n高盛便指出,贝壳面临的风险包括,房地产市场周期性和潜在的监管逆风、竞争加剧,以及与网络商店/开发商的关系管理,不如预期。\n胡景晖认为,政府针对中介平台的强监管不会放松,贝壳想要继续扩张,面临很大挑战,尤其是反垄断,“房产交易关乎国计民生,这些不可能由一个上市公司掌控”。\n上市前,市场传言,贝壳在B轮融资中签署了对赌协议,若无法在2020年上市成功,则需要返还64亿元+8%的利息。\n如今,身价千亿的左晖,终究也不过是个资本工具人罢了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1564,"authorTweetTopSt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