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2021-07-30

$IT科技包装(ITP)$冲鸭

2021-07-14

$东北社区银行(NECB)$什么鬼？

2021-07-12

$IT科技包装(ITP)$$上为集团(SGOC)$什么时候你能这么拉下？[难过]

2021-04-15

利好哪个票

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-26

$Ctd Holdings Inc(CYTH)$搞什么？？增发了？？？什么价格增发？

2021-03-20

什么意思？

BRIEF-Cyclo Therapeutics Files For Mixed Shelf Of Up To $100 Mln

2021-03-17

这是打击报复吗[开心]

5000亿贝壳的幻象

2021-03-14

很好

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-26

华为永不造车[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

华为回应造车传闻：重申不造车，帮助车企造好车

2021-02-22

梭哈✈️

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-22

$Ctd Holdings Inc(CYTH)$起飞🛫

2021-02-19

$IT科技包装(ITP)$暴风雨前的宁静

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Inc(CYTH)$搞什么？？增发了？？？什么价格增发？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356638966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350266401,"gmtCreate":1616213740203,"gmtModify":1616213740203,"author":{"id":"3574295790470636","authorId":"3574295790470636","name":"粉肠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0107bea6eb0c464151aeef32ea6d6f18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么意思？","listText":"什么意思？","text":"什么意思？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350266401","repostId":"2120499112","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2120499112","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, 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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-Cyclo Therapeutics Files For Mixed Shelf Of Up To $100 Mln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Cyclo Therapeutics Files For Mixed Shelf Of Up To $100 Mln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-20 04:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>March 19 (Reuters) - Cyclo Therapeutics Inc   :</p><p>   * CYCLO THERAPEUTICS FILES FOR MIXED SHELF OF UP TO $100 MILLION - SEC FILING</p><p>Source : () Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","APR":"Apria, Inc.","CYTH":"Cyclo 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((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324171528,"gmtCreate":1615978661564,"gmtModify":1703495811843,"author":{"id":"3574295790470636","authorId":"3574295790470636","name":"粉肠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0107bea6eb0c464151aeef32ea6d6f18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是打击报复吗[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"这是打击报复吗[开心]&nbsp;","text":"这是打击报复吗[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324171528","repostId":"2120904478","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2120904478","pubTimestamp":1615963501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2120904478?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 14:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"5000亿贝壳的幻象","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120904478","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"贝壳找房（以下简称贝壳）董事长左晖，是2020年开发商最羡慕的人。\n2020年房地产行业的大事件，除了恒大债务危机，就是贝壳上市，市值超万科了，这带给开发商大佬们的震撼、慨叹、启迪，至今未息。\n如果说","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>找房（以下简称贝壳）董事长左晖，是2020年开发商最羡慕的人。</p>\n<p>2020年房地产行业的大事件，除了恒大债务危机，就是贝壳上市，市值超万科了，这带给开发商大佬们的震撼、慨叹、启迪，至今未息。</p>\n<p>如果说，房地产的互联网化在此之前还是镜花水月，是大佬们的不屑一顾或求而不得，贝壳的上市，则让他们看到了一个惊人的事实：房地产互联网真的可以变现，原本看不上的中介，身价也几百亿了。资本的游戏如此美妙。</p>\n<p>不过，左晖自有他的烦恼。3月16日，贝壳发布上市后的首份年报，虽然首次实现了盈利，但<b>其中超过一半是由新房交易带来的，贝壳引以为傲的ACN、楼盘字典，所谓护城河，并没能带来强劲的收入和利润增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>相反，新房、二手房正在接近天花板，扩张进入瓶颈期，且都面临区域市场更严厉的调控，以及规模增长、定价权带来的垄断风险。</b></p>\n<p>贝壳这个“独角兽”，撕下互联网的外衣，靠什么继续支撑5000亿的市值？在恒大、万科、龙湖等地产商纷纷自建平台，甚至介入二手房之后，贝壳的业务又如何增长？它的盈利状况，是否可持续？</p>\n<p>上市从来不是终点。摆在左晖面前的，都是难题。</p>\n<h2><b>沦为开发商代理？</b></h2>\n<p>毋庸置疑，贝壳已成为中国居住领域绝对的巨头。</p>\n<p>2020年，贝壳GTV（平台交易总额）3.5万亿，仅次于阿里，相当于3个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、5个美团。</p>\n<p>其中，新房1.38万亿GTV，占全国新房交易量的8%，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>的1.8倍；1.94万亿的二手房GTV，占全国二手房交易量约四分之一。</p>\n<p>目前贝壳平台连接的经纪门店数量为4.69万家，经纪人接近50万，达到全国总量的四分之一。左晖的目标是，未来扩展到10万家门店、100万经纪人。</p>\n<p>2020年，<b>贝壳的新房交易营收首次超过了存量房交易营收，前者为379亿元，同比增长87.1%，高于后者的306亿元（同比仅增24.4%）。</b></p>\n<p>其中，非链家连接渠道完成的新房交易GTV同比增长102.7%至1.11万亿，贝壳没有公布由此带来的收入是多少。</p>\n<p>而非链家连接经纪人贡献的二手房GTV，虽然同比增长109.9%至9,281亿，但因此带来的收入仅有30亿。</p>\n<p><b>营收结构及增速的变化表明，新房交易已成为贝壳的主打业务和主要收入来源。</b></p>\n<p>两年前，左晖曾将链家比作开发商的“夜壶”，市场不好被拿来用，好了再放回去，“2019年新房GMV有15万亿+，真正通过外面渠道销售约20%，绝大多数还是靠开发商自销。二手房仍是贝壳的核心业务，新房GMV大概只占30%。”</p>\n<p><b>然而今天的贝壳，正在变得越来越像一家开发商代理公司。</b>占比40%－45%的新房交易量，以及超过一半的营收，让他们苦心建立的经纪人、楼盘“护城河”，越来越被服务于开发商了。</p>\n<p>虽然，开发商们并不希望通过贝壳这样的渠道卖房，因为佣金太高。渠道佣金起步1%，多则到10％，显然，通过渠道销售的房子越多，开发商的利润也就被分走的越多。</p>\n<p>但2018年四季度以来，市场的低迷让开发商找客户成了困难，链家和贝壳的“渠道费”高涨。有北京开发商人士对华尔街见闻表示，2017年之前链家收的北京新房渠道费用都在1%以下，2018年后逐渐提升到了3%以上。市场中也总有“贝壳推高房价”的质疑，因为高昂的渠道费，总要转嫁到购房者身上。</p>\n<h2><b>虚幻的“科技”标签</b></h2>\n<p>越来越多帮开发商卖房子的贝壳，与它讲给资本市场的故事，并不相符。</p>\n<p>10多年前，在北京干房屋中介的左晖，没想到有一天自己可以身价千亿，成为互联网大佬。</p>\n<p>但他确实是一个对互联网极其敏锐的人。2014年，在其他中介都还苦苦跑线下之时，链家网问世，同时开启上市计划，进行多轮融资。</p>\n<p>在资本的助推下，链家从北京到深圳、上海，疯狂收并购，高速网罗门店和经纪人；2018年年初，开放平台贝壳找房宣布成立，左晖把链家装进了贝壳，并邀请其他中介公司加入，引发了著名的贝壳、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>之战。</p>\n<p><b>2020年9月，贝壳上市，抛出产业互联网、科技公司的故事，市场和投资者给予极高的热情。</b></p>\n<p>贝壳股价很快超过了地产龙头万科的3000亿，摸高到6000亿，令一众开发商羡慕不已。作为股东的万科、融创，都在中期业绩会上，表达了对“互联网”贝壳的关注。</p>\n<p>在美股中概股里，贝壳股价仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、阿里、拼多多、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>。上市以来，贝壳股价涨幅已超过226%。</p>\n<p>贝壳的核心业务模式，是房屋交易平台、ACN（经纪人合作网络）模式，彭永东称，这是一个“门槛极高、大赛道，值得往十年去做”的领域。</p>\n<p><b>但时至今日，贝壳的收入和盈利模式仍来自于佣金和渠道费／分成，2020年，来自平台服务费的收入只有30亿。</b></p>\n<p>而当新房交易营收大过二手房，它和其他的中介代理比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002285\">世联行</a>、易居，又有什么区别？</p>\n<p><b>与其说它是平台，不如说是建立了统一规则的中介联盟，尤其是在新房交易上，对开发商拥有了很大的话语权。</b></p>\n<p>这样的贝壳值多少钱？资本市场是否高估？5029亿的市值，对应27.78亿元的净利润，市盈率为181，即便按美国会计准则调整后的57.20亿元来算，市盈率也在87.9，远高于其他科技公司。</p>\n<p>有人说，贝壳不应该算市盈率，应该看市销率、用PCF估值法，有人反驳，“亏损之前，投资人可以各种估值法说它股价多合理，赚钱了反而就打破幻想，原来这业务就赚这么点钱。”这时候反而觉得它更贵了。</p>\n<p>从股价表现来看，贝壳上市后股价最高涨至79.4美元/股，但随后贝壳给出一个定增，股价便再没上过79。</p>\n<p>“贝壳去年刚上市募资20多亿美金，三个月后又定增25亿，说明非常缺钱。股价70多美金的时候，定增价格定在58，说明贝壳自己都觉得贵”，一名投资者说。</p>\n<h2><b>定价权与垄断的风险</b></h2>\n<p>贝壳5000亿的市值，是基于GTV给出的，也就是规模，然而规模与垄断之间，天然地存在悖论。</p>\n<p><b>一方面，贝壳通过快速收并购，让投资者看到了它的规模和增长，并且拥有了区域市场的定价权，但另一方面，垄断或接近垄断面临政策风险。</b></p>\n<p>目前，贝壳并没有下沉到四五线市场，在它重点布局的部分一二线、强三线城市，占据市场成交量的50%。</p>\n<p><b>贝壳最被诟病的动作是垄断性定价。中原地产首席分析师张大伟指出，除了在部分区域市场实际上垄断外，贝壳最大的问题是拥有了定价权。</b></p>\n<p>首先是新房渠道业务针对B端开发商提价，由于2019年房地产新房市场普遍低迷，贝壳在部分城市的新房渠道费率上涨。比如在北京，2017年之前，新房渠道费率在1%以下，从2018年起提到2%-3%，2019年起开始达到5%-8%，部分去化艰难项目达到10%以上。</p>\n<p>从财报看，粗略来说，贝壳2020年新房的佣金费率（收入／GTV）大约为2.75%。</p>\n<p>2019年，包括天津等地城市政府部门专门发文，狙击渠道费，比如规定不能超过6%等。</p>\n<p><b>2020年，阿里旗下的天猫好房成立，郁亮、莫斌作为贝壳的股东方，也和其他200多家地产商都去站台，背后正是他们对贝壳高昂渠道费的反感。</b></p>\n<p>其次是针对C端普通购房者的佣金涨价。目前，全国主流城市大部分中介的佣金费率在1-2%之间，贝壳、链家的佣金费则往往更高。</p>\n<p>业绩会上，有人问贝壳CEO彭永东，贝壳在有些城市佣金已经提高到3%了，会不会推广到其他地方？彭永东没有正面回答，但他表示，<b>希望佣金的比例能符合中介提供的服务水准。</b></p>\n<p><b>事实上，华尔街见闻发现，贝壳在多个城市已经提价。</b>去年12月底，郑州贝壳系所有门店宣布上调中介收费标准至3%，今年2月18日起，重庆贝壳系宣布服务费用调整为卖方1%、买方2%，此前则为卖方0%，买方2%。</p>\n<p>房产交易是普通<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>一生中最大的财产交易，针对C端的佣金上调，引发大批购房者的反对呼声；2019年以来，业内多个“反壳联盟”横空出世，反对“贝壳一家独大”。</p>\n<p>景晖智库首席经济学家景晖认为，<b>今年贝壳还有可能增加中介经纪公司的平台费。</b></p>\n<p>“贝壳为了做独角兽，为了获得资本认可，一直采取高投入策略，走向垄断，而一旦形成垄断，各方面都会涨价。”胡景晖指出，定价权和垄断越高，风险越大。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFUN\">房天下控股</a>董事长莫天全认为，在二手房住房市场，如果一家公司或平台的市场占有率超过30%，理论上来说这家企业就可以左右市场价格走向，决定供需情况，更不用说交易环节费用的上涨。</p>\n<p><b>在二手房交易市场即将达到这一占有率的公司，只有贝壳。</b></p>\n<p>而针对互联网大平台的反垄断，国家层面的动作越来越多。去年11月至今，监管部门多次提出强化反垄断、防止资本无序扩张。</p>\n<p>对此贝壳不以为意。彭永东去年底回应，反垄断针对取得巨大市场份额的大型互联网公司，而贝壳成立刚两年半，未来还有很大的增长空间。</p>\n<p>胡景晖则认为，在房地产行业内，贝壳已经被打上垄断标签，“贝壳一直标榜流量、数据，在某种程度上，已经踩到线了”。</p>\n<h2><b>扩张陷入瓶颈</b></h2>\n<p>抛开垄断与否，看似风光的贝壳，暗流汹涌，扩张已经遇到了阻碍。</p>\n<p>贝壳整体交易额、净利润的增长，跟去年的特殊年份有很大关系。3月份，中国迅速走出疫情后，开发商急着卖房，叠加货币因素，新房交易量达到17.4万亿，再创历史新高。所以去年贝壳收入增长最快、最大的一部分，仍然是新房交易。</p>\n<p>胡景晖认为，新房市场越是接近峰值，越是意味着拐点到来，新房的再增长，最长维持不超过3-5年。</p>\n<p><b>贝壳还将面临更多的竞争者，分食市场。去年底，恒大房车宝上线，对标贝壳，万科、碧桂园、龙湖等大型房企，也纷纷成立了自己的房屋交易平台，这都将可能分走贝壳的流量。</b></p>\n<p>此外，过去几年，贝壳规模扩张太快，门店和经纪人数量的扩张，接下来面临瓶颈。据华尔街见闻了解，去年就有不少“退壳”的企业，“贝壳管理风格强硬，很多入驻企业并不适应，用统一标准来做全国市场是会出现问题的。”一些中介从业者说。</p>\n<p>而贝壳的立身之本，二手房市场，正面临前所未有的严厉调控。今年春节前后，以深圳、上海、杭州为代表的重点城市，首次出现强管控二手房房价的做法，并且针对中介平台不断出招。</p>\n<p>1月底，北京政府部门约谈中介机构，要求不能渲染、炒作房屋成交信息，减少带看次数等，其后贝壳开始隐藏每个小区的历史成交价格。</p>\n<p>没过几天，楼市火热的深圳出台二手房成交参考价新政，彻底打破了以贝壳为首的中介在二手房定价中的惯常玩法，贝壳的房源挂牌价格被迫下线。</p>\n<p>3月，杭州开始整顿中介市场秩序，贝壳系的链家门店、德佑门店被点名批评。杭州房管局还要求，中介平台展示的房源价格，和监管平台挂牌价格必须一致——这意味着，杭州也拿回了二手房价话语权。</p>\n<p><b>多个城市的二手房买卖陷入了博弈，交易量迅速转冷，巨变正在发生。</b></p>\n<p>从历史经验看，二手房市场在密集调控后会走入低谷，交易量的下滑，对贝壳这样的中间商的影响是巨大的。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>便指出，贝壳面临的风险包括，房地产市场周期性和潜在的监管逆风、竞争加剧，以及与网络商店/开发商的关系管理，不如预期。</p>\n<p><b>胡景晖认为，政府针对中介平台的强监管不会放松，贝壳想要继续扩张，面临很大挑战，尤其是反垄断，“房产交易关乎国计民生，这些不可能由一个上市公司掌控”。</b></p>\n<p>上市前，市场传言，贝壳在B轮融资中签署了对赌协议，若无法在2020年上市成功，则需要返还64亿元+8%的利息。</p>\n<p>如今，身价千亿的左晖，终究也不过是个资本工具人罢了。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5000亿贝壳的幻象</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5000亿贝壳的幻象\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 14:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624003><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>贝壳找房（以下简称贝壳）董事长左晖，是2020年开发商最羡慕的人。\n2020年房地产行业的大事件，除了恒大债务危机，就是贝壳上市，市值超万科了，这带给开发商大佬们的震撼、慨叹、启迪，至今未息。\n如果说，房地产的互联网化在此之前还是镜花水月，是大佬们的不屑一顾或求而不得，贝壳的上市，则让他们看到了一个惊人的事实：房地产互联网真的可以变现，原本看不上的中介，身价也几百亿了。资本的游戏如此美妙。\n不过，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624003\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b535c9a2fb31d3a8e79d1d3d90fd21a","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624003","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120904478","content_text":"贝壳找房（以下简称贝壳）董事长左晖，是2020年开发商最羡慕的人。\n2020年房地产行业的大事件，除了恒大债务危机，就是贝壳上市，市值超万科了，这带给开发商大佬们的震撼、慨叹、启迪，至今未息。\n如果说，房地产的互联网化在此之前还是镜花水月，是大佬们的不屑一顾或求而不得，贝壳的上市，则让他们看到了一个惊人的事实：房地产互联网真的可以变现，原本看不上的中介，身价也几百亿了。资本的游戏如此美妙。\n不过，左晖自有他的烦恼。3月16日，贝壳发布上市后的首份年报，虽然首次实现了盈利，但其中超过一半是由新房交易带来的，贝壳引以为傲的ACN、楼盘字典，所谓护城河，并没能带来强劲的收入和利润增长。\n相反，新房、二手房正在接近天花板，扩张进入瓶颈期，且都面临区域市场更严厉的调控，以及规模增长、定价权带来的垄断风险。\n贝壳这个“独角兽”，撕下互联网的外衣，靠什么继续支撑5000亿的市值？在恒大、万科、龙湖等地产商纷纷自建平台，甚至介入二手房之后，贝壳的业务又如何增长？它的盈利状况，是否可持续？\n上市从来不是终点。摆在左晖面前的，都是难题。\n沦为开发商代理？\n毋庸置疑，贝壳已成为中国居住领域绝对的巨头。\n2020年，贝壳GTV（平台交易总额）3.5万亿，仅次于阿里，相当于3个拼多多、5个美团。\n其中，新房1.38万亿GTV，占全国新房交易量的8%，是碧桂园的1.8倍；1.94万亿的二手房GTV，占全国二手房交易量约四分之一。\n目前贝壳平台连接的经纪门店数量为4.69万家，经纪人接近50万，达到全国总量的四分之一。左晖的目标是，未来扩展到10万家门店、100万经纪人。\n2020年，贝壳的新房交易营收首次超过了存量房交易营收，前者为379亿元，同比增长87.1%，高于后者的306亿元（同比仅增24.4%）。\n其中，非链家连接渠道完成的新房交易GTV同比增长102.7%至1.11万亿，贝壳没有公布由此带来的收入是多少。\n而非链家连接经纪人贡献的二手房GTV，虽然同比增长109.9%至9,281亿，但因此带来的收入仅有30亿。\n营收结构及增速的变化表明，新房交易已成为贝壳的主打业务和主要收入来源。\n两年前，左晖曾将链家比作开发商的“夜壶”，市场不好被拿来用，好了再放回去，“2019年新房GMV有15万亿+，真正通过外面渠道销售约20%，绝大多数还是靠开发商自销。二手房仍是贝壳的核心业务，新房GMV大概只占30%。”\n然而今天的贝壳，正在变得越来越像一家开发商代理公司。占比40%－45%的新房交易量，以及超过一半的营收，让他们苦心建立的经纪人、楼盘“护城河”，越来越被服务于开发商了。\n虽然，开发商们并不希望通过贝壳这样的渠道卖房，因为佣金太高。渠道佣金起步1%，多则到10％，显然，通过渠道销售的房子越多，开发商的利润也就被分走的越多。\n但2018年四季度以来，市场的低迷让开发商找客户成了困难，链家和贝壳的“渠道费”高涨。有北京开发商人士对华尔街见闻表示，2017年之前链家收的北京新房渠道费用都在1%以下，2018年后逐渐提升到了3%以上。市场中也总有“贝壳推高房价”的质疑，因为高昂的渠道费，总要转嫁到购房者身上。\n虚幻的“科技”标签\n越来越多帮开发商卖房子的贝壳，与它讲给资本市场的故事，并不相符。\n10多年前，在北京干房屋中介的左晖，没想到有一天自己可以身价千亿，成为互联网大佬。\n但他确实是一个对互联网极其敏锐的人。2014年，在其他中介都还苦苦跑线下之时，链家网问世，同时开启上市计划，进行多轮融资。\n在资本的助推下，链家从北京到深圳、上海，疯狂收并购，高速网罗门店和经纪人；2018年年初，开放平台贝壳找房宣布成立，左晖把链家装进了贝壳，并邀请其他中介公司加入，引发了著名的贝壳、58同城之战。\n2020年9月，贝壳上市，抛出产业互联网、科技公司的故事，市场和投资者给予极高的热情。\n贝壳股价很快超过了地产龙头万科的3000亿，摸高到6000亿，令一众开发商羡慕不已。作为股东的万科、融创，都在中期业绩会上，表达了对“互联网”贝壳的关注。\n在美股中概股里，贝壳股价仅次于台积电、阿里、拼多多、京东及百度。上市以来，贝壳股价涨幅已超过226%。\n贝壳的核心业务模式，是房屋交易平台、ACN（经纪人合作网络）模式，彭永东称，这是一个“门槛极高、大赛道，值得往十年去做”的领域。\n但时至今日，贝壳的收入和盈利模式仍来自于佣金和渠道费／分成，2020年，来自平台服务费的收入只有30亿。\n而当新房交易营收大过二手房，它和其他的中介代理比如世联行、易居，又有什么区别？\n与其说它是平台，不如说是建立了统一规则的中介联盟，尤其是在新房交易上，对开发商拥有了很大的话语权。\n这样的贝壳值多少钱？资本市场是否高估？5029亿的市值，对应27.78亿元的净利润，市盈率为181，即便按美国会计准则调整后的57.20亿元来算，市盈率也在87.9，远高于其他科技公司。\n有人说，贝壳不应该算市盈率，应该看市销率、用PCF估值法，有人反驳，“亏损之前，投资人可以各种估值法说它股价多合理，赚钱了反而就打破幻想，原来这业务就赚这么点钱。”这时候反而觉得它更贵了。\n从股价表现来看，贝壳上市后股价最高涨至79.4美元/股，但随后贝壳给出一个定增，股价便再没上过79。\n“贝壳去年刚上市募资20多亿美金，三个月后又定增25亿，说明非常缺钱。股价70多美金的时候，定增价格定在58，说明贝壳自己都觉得贵”，一名投资者说。\n定价权与垄断的风险\n贝壳5000亿的市值，是基于GTV给出的，也就是规模，然而规模与垄断之间，天然地存在悖论。\n一方面，贝壳通过快速收并购，让投资者看到了它的规模和增长，并且拥有了区域市场的定价权，但另一方面，垄断或接近垄断面临政策风险。\n目前，贝壳并没有下沉到四五线市场，在它重点布局的部分一二线、强三线城市，占据市场成交量的50%。\n贝壳最被诟病的动作是垄断性定价。中原地产首席分析师张大伟指出，除了在部分区域市场实际上垄断外，贝壳最大的问题是拥有了定价权。\n首先是新房渠道业务针对B端开发商提价，由于2019年房地产新房市场普遍低迷，贝壳在部分城市的新房渠道费率上涨。比如在北京，2017年之前，新房渠道费率在1%以下，从2018年起提到2%-3%，2019年起开始达到5%-8%，部分去化艰难项目达到10%以上。\n从财报看，粗略来说，贝壳2020年新房的佣金费率（收入／GTV）大约为2.75%。\n2019年，包括天津等地城市政府部门专门发文，狙击渠道费，比如规定不能超过6%等。\n2020年，阿里旗下的天猫好房成立，郁亮、莫斌作为贝壳的股东方，也和其他200多家地产商都去站台，背后正是他们对贝壳高昂渠道费的反感。\n其次是针对C端普通购房者的佣金涨价。目前，全国主流城市大部分中介的佣金费率在1-2%之间，贝壳、链家的佣金费则往往更高。\n业绩会上，有人问贝壳CEO彭永东，贝壳在有些城市佣金已经提高到3%了，会不会推广到其他地方？彭永东没有正面回答，但他表示，希望佣金的比例能符合中介提供的服务水准。\n事实上，华尔街见闻发现，贝壳在多个城市已经提价。去年12月底，郑州贝壳系所有门店宣布上调中介收费标准至3%，今年2月18日起，重庆贝壳系宣布服务费用调整为卖方1%、买方2%，此前则为卖方0%，买方2%。\n房产交易是普通老百姓一生中最大的财产交易，针对C端的佣金上调，引发大批购房者的反对呼声；2019年以来，业内多个“反壳联盟”横空出世，反对“贝壳一家独大”。\n景晖智库首席经济学家景晖认为，今年贝壳还有可能增加中介经纪公司的平台费。\n“贝壳为了做独角兽，为了获得资本认可，一直采取高投入策略，走向垄断，而一旦形成垄断，各方面都会涨价。”胡景晖指出，定价权和垄断越高，风险越大。\n房天下控股董事长莫天全认为，在二手房住房市场，如果一家公司或平台的市场占有率超过30%，理论上来说这家企业就可以左右市场价格走向，决定供需情况，更不用说交易环节费用的上涨。\n在二手房交易市场即将达到这一占有率的公司，只有贝壳。\n而针对互联网大平台的反垄断，国家层面的动作越来越多。去年11月至今，监管部门多次提出强化反垄断、防止资本无序扩张。\n对此贝壳不以为意。彭永东去年底回应，反垄断针对取得巨大市场份额的大型互联网公司，而贝壳成立刚两年半，未来还有很大的增长空间。\n胡景晖则认为，在房地产行业内，贝壳已经被打上垄断标签，“贝壳一直标榜流量、数据，在某种程度上，已经踩到线了”。\n扩张陷入瓶颈\n抛开垄断与否，看似风光的贝壳，暗流汹涌，扩张已经遇到了阻碍。\n贝壳整体交易额、净利润的增长，跟去年的特殊年份有很大关系。3月份，中国迅速走出疫情后，开发商急着卖房，叠加货币因素，新房交易量达到17.4万亿，再创历史新高。所以去年贝壳收入增长最快、最大的一部分，仍然是新房交易。\n胡景晖认为，新房市场越是接近峰值，越是意味着拐点到来，新房的再增长，最长维持不超过3-5年。\n贝壳还将面临更多的竞争者，分食市场。去年底，恒大房车宝上线，对标贝壳，万科、碧桂园、龙湖等大型房企，也纷纷成立了自己的房屋交易平台，这都将可能分走贝壳的流量。\n此外，过去几年，贝壳规模扩张太快，门店和经纪人数量的扩张，接下来面临瓶颈。据华尔街见闻了解，去年就有不少“退壳”的企业，“贝壳管理风格强硬，很多入驻企业并不适应，用统一标准来做全国市场是会出现问题的。”一些中介从业者说。\n而贝壳的立身之本，二手房市场，正面临前所未有的严厉调控。今年春节前后，以深圳、上海、杭州为代表的重点城市，首次出现强管控二手房房价的做法，并且针对中介平台不断出招。\n1月底，北京政府部门约谈中介机构，要求不能渲染、炒作房屋成交信息，减少带看次数等，其后贝壳开始隐藏每个小区的历史成交价格。\n没过几天，楼市火热的深圳出台二手房成交参考价新政，彻底打破了以贝壳为首的中介在二手房定价中的惯常玩法，贝壳的房源挂牌价格被迫下线。\n3月，杭州开始整顿中介市场秩序，贝壳系的链家门店、德佑门店被点名批评。杭州房管局还要求，中介平台展示的房源价格，和监管平台挂牌价格必须一致——这意味着，杭州也拿回了二手房价话语权。\n多个城市的二手房买卖陷入了博弈，交易量迅速转冷，巨变正在发生。\n从历史经验看，二手房市场在密集调控后会走入低谷，交易量的下滑，对贝壳这样的中间商的影响是巨大的。\n高盛便指出，贝壳面临的风险包括，房地产市场周期性和潜在的监管逆风、竞争加剧，以及与网络商店/开发商的关系管理，不如预期。\n胡景晖认为，政府针对中介平台的强监管不会放松，贝壳想要继续扩张，面临很大挑战，尤其是反垄断，“房产交易关乎国计民生，这些不可能由一个上市公司掌控”。\n上市前，市场传言，贝壳在B轮融资中签署了对赌协议，若无法在2020年上市成功，则需要返还64亿元+8%的利息。\n如今，身价千亿的左晖，终究也不过是个资本工具人罢了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopSt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[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368662697","repostId":"1163942481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163942481","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614319025,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163942481?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 13:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华为回应造车传闻：重申不造车，帮助车企造好车","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163942481","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月26日，消息人士：华为计划推出自有品牌电动汽车；华为正和长安汽车、北汽蓝谷协商代工制造。受此消息影响，北汽蓝谷直线涨停，长安汽车大涨7%。就市场再次盛传的造车传闻，华为回应表示，公司策略不变：华为","content":"<p>2月26日，消息人士：华为计划推出自有品牌电动汽车；华为正和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600733\">北汽蓝谷</a>协商代工制造。</p><p>受此消息影响，北汽蓝谷直线涨停，长安汽车大涨7%。</p><p>就市场再次盛传的造车传闻，华为回应表示，公司策略不变：华为不造车，聚焦ICT技术，做智能汽车增量部件供应商，帮助车企造好车。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3915d43ab96ccb3317c92124a87a74f0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49db11bea99d0ddbfbddf3def6c64e9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华为回应造车传闻：重申不造车，帮助车企造好车</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600733\">北汽蓝谷</a>协商代工制造。</p><p>受此消息影响，北汽蓝谷直线涨停，长安汽车大涨7%。</p><p>就市场再次盛传的造车传闻，华为回应表示，公司策略不变：华为不造车，聚焦ICT技术，做智能汽车增量部件供应商，帮助车企造好车。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3915d43ab96ccb3317c92124a87a74f0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49db11bea99d0ddbfbddf3def6c64e9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8776326a073f38b9df528ccba693d04","relate_stocks":{"600733":"北汽蓝谷"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163942481","content_text":"2月26日，消息人士：华为计划推出自有品牌电动汽车；华为正和长安汽车、北汽蓝谷协商代工制造。受此消息影响，北汽蓝谷直线涨停，长安汽车大涨7%。就市场再次盛传的造车传闻，华为回应表示，公司策略不变：华为不造车，聚焦ICT技术，做智能汽车增量部件供应商，帮助车企造好车。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369110419,"gmtCreate":1614007759131,"gmtModify":1614007759131,"author":{"id":"3574295790470636","authorId":"3574295790470636","name":"粉肠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0107bea6eb0c464151aeef32ea6d6f18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"梭哈✈️","listText":"梭哈✈️","text":"梭哈✈️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369110419","repostId":"2113805379","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369197800,"gmtCreate":1614007322200,"gmtModify":1614007322200,"author":{"id":"3574295790470636","authorId":"3574295790470636","name":"粉肠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0107bea6eb0c464151aeef32ea6d6f18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600733\">北汽蓝谷</a>协商代工制造。</p><p>受此消息影响，北汽蓝谷直线涨停，长安汽车大涨7%。</p><p>就市场再次盛传的造车传闻，华为回应表示，公司策略不变：华为不造车，聚焦ICT技术，做智能汽车增量部件供应商，帮助车企造好车。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3915d43ab96ccb3317c92124a87a74f0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49db11bea99d0ddbfbddf3def6c64e9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华为回应造车传闻：重申不造车，帮助车企造好车</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600733\">北汽蓝谷</a>协商代工制造。</p><p>受此消息影响，北汽蓝谷直线涨停，长安汽车大涨7%。</p><p>就市场再次盛传的造车传闻，华为回应表示，公司策略不变：华为不造车，聚焦ICT技术，做智能汽车增量部件供应商，帮助车企造好车。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3915d43ab96ccb3317c92124a87a74f0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49db11bea99d0ddbfbddf3def6c64e9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8776326a073f38b9df528ccba693d04","relate_stocks":{"600733":"北汽蓝谷"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163942481","content_text":"2月26日，消息人士：华为计划推出自有品牌电动汽车；华为正和长安汽车、北汽蓝谷协商代工制造。受此消息影响，北汽蓝谷直线涨停，长安汽车大涨7%。就市场再次盛传的造车传闻，华为回应表示，公司策略不变：华为不造车，聚焦ICT技术，做智能汽车增量部件供应商，帮助车企造好车。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":144964923,"gmtCreate":1626262519262,"gmtModify":1626262519262,"author":{"id":"3574295790470636","authorId":"3574295790470636","name":"粉肠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0107bea6eb0c464151aeef32ea6d6f18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NECB\">$东北社区银行(NECB)$</a>什么鬼？","listText":"<a 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