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01-03
比特币表示不慌，最好是衰退，脸着地
美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储会议纪要前瞻：鹰派将给市场泼冷水，“降息狂欢”恐迎来中场休息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-03 11:10 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)即将公布的会议纪要可能会给市场泼一盘冷水。外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。然而，来自世界上最强大的央行的任何寒意都可能是短暂的。市场被鸽派论调冲昏了头脑2024年三次降息——这是美联储12月13日的“点阵图”传达的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1049260.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2400813563","content_text":"美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)即将公布的会议纪要可能会给市场泼一盘冷水。外面仍然很冷，这可能是美联储即将发出的信息。然而，来自世界上最强大的央行的任何寒意都可能是短暂的。市场被鸽派论调冲昏了头脑2024年三次降息——这是美联储12月13日的“点阵图”传达的信息。美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事维持利率不变，并暗示借贷成本的下降幅度将超过此前的预期。美联储下调而非上调利率预期，标志着政策的转变，也标志着战胜通胀的胜利。市场喜欢这个观点——但可能太过了——预计2024年将有四到五次降息，第一次将在3月份。债券收益率暴跌，股市飙升，美元处于亏损状态。投资者倾向于先开枪后思考，而且可能做得太过了。根据债券市场的数据，利率将在3月份下调。美联储官员不希望长期借贷成本下降得如此强劲、如此迅速——这可能会鼓励放贷，而不是储蓄，有可能使抑制通胀的成果付之一炬。这时会议纪要就派上用场了。美联储使用会议记录来传达信息这些协议将记录下为期两天的会议上的言论，美联储的官员们在会上发表了各自的预测。当时，政策制定者受到消费者价格指数(CPI)数据(在他们审议的第一天公布)和生产者价格指数(PPI)的影响。但并非美联储董事会的所有成员都完全一致。由于会议纪要直到最后一刻都在修改，该纪要可能会强调官员们想要传达的信息——别着急。预计该报告将强调鹰派成员在降息前保持谨慎的愿望，并承诺在确定降息是必要的之前不会降息。这样一个鹰派的亮点将提振美元，并使股票投资者的沮丧。它也会冷却黄金。然而，分析师认为这种影响不会持续太久。首先，趋势强劲——投资者对软着陆的前景相当乐观，即通胀完全消失而不出现衰退。其次，市场对美联储的预测持怀疑态度。该机构很晚才承认通货膨胀不是暂时的，也很晚才承认自己已经做得够多了，或者做得太多了。第三点——这与第一点有关——美联储强调它依赖于数据。除非最新数据显示出通胀倾向，否则没有理由害怕鹰派的论调。总结预计美联储将发布相对强硬的会议纪要，引发“避险”市场走势。然而，这个行情不会持续太久。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":258975679897752,"gmtCreate":1704256457394,"gmtModify":1704261029526,"author":{"id":"3573712940563206","authorId":"3573712940563206","name":"TLB___","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffe82c201b7fa4da2e2dd8acce0bbff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712940563206","idStr":"3573712940563206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"比特币表示不慌，最好是衰退，脸着地","listText":"比特币表示不慌，最好是衰退，脸着地","text":"比特币表示不慌，最好是衰退，脸着地","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/258975679897752","repostId":"2400813563","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
