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ray7
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Down 30% from here","listText":"Bad info. Down 30% from here","text":"Bad info. Down 30% from here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151838727","repostId":"2130217320","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2130217320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619573110,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2130217320?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 09:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy These 2 New Stocks Before They Jump Over 60%, Says Goldman Sachs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130217320","media":"TipRanks","summary":"The S&P 500 is showing a 6-month gain of 24%. Stocks generally have been gainers as the coronavirus ","content":"<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 is showing a 6-month gain of 24%. Stocks generally have been gainers as the coronavirus crisis recedes, economies reopen, and the Federal Reserve remains committed to low-rate regime. In ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-2-stocks-jump-over-144110998.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy These 2 New Stocks Before They Jump Over 60%, Says Goldman Sachs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy These 2 New Stocks Before They Jump Over 60%, Says Goldman Sachs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-28 09:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-2-stocks-jump-over-144110998.html><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 is showing a 6-month gain of 24%. Stocks generally have been gainers as the coronavirus crisis recedes, economies reopen, and the Federal Reserve remains committed to low-rate regime. In ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-2-stocks-jump-over-144110998.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COMP":"Compass, Inc.","GS":"高盛","EM":"怪兽充电","NGD":"New Gold"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-2-stocks-jump-over-144110998.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2130217320","content_text":"The S&P 500 is showing a 6-month gain of 24%. Stocks generally have been gainers as the coronavirus crisis recedes, economies reopen, and the Federal Reserve remains committed to low-rate regime. In this environment, it’s no wonder that many companies are considering going public through an IPO.\nThe high-return environment we’re experiencing right now makes the IPO attractive as a way to not just raise capital but to also cash in on the rising stock market. With interest rates at historic lows, stocks have become the go-to vehicle for investors seeking growth, and for companies seeking investors – the cohort conducting or contemplating IPOs – the partnership is natural. An IPO brings costs with it, in the form of compliance and disclosure rules – the market’s rapid gains outweigh them for the present.\nThis brings us to Goldman Sachs. The banking firm’s stock analysts have been looking for the equities primed to gain in current conditions. And just this week, they’ve tapped two stocks new to the public markets as likely to jump 60% or more in coming months – a solid return that investors should note. We ran the two through TipRanks database to see what other Wall Street's analysts have to say about them.\nCompass, Inc. (COMP)\nTech meets real estate in Compass, Inc., a technology company founded in 2012 to make relevant, cloud-based tools available to realtors. The company’s platform facilitates buying, renting, and selling real estate. The company aims to replace the real estate industry’s antiquated ‘paper’ model with a seamless digital experience that empowers agents and satisfies both buyers and sellers.\nThe company’s large size, and its agent-centered approach, give it advantages over online rivals such as Redfin and Zillow. Compass boasts a 4% market share in the crowded residential segment; by comparison, competitor Redfin’s market share is 1%.\nLooking at Compass by the numbers paints an impressive picture. In its fiscal year 2020, Compass employed over 19,000 real estate agents, facilitated over 145,000 transactions with a total gross value of $152 billion, saw top-line revenues of $3.7 billion, and operated in 46 markets across 16 states.\nBased on that performance, on April 1, the company went public. Compass put 25 million shares of common stock on the market, at price of $18 each, and netted $450 million.\nAmong the bulls is Goldman analyst Michael Ng, who likes the fundamental of this newly public stock.\n“Compass is the largest independent U.S. real estate brokerage by gross transaction value (GTV) and differentiates itself from competing brokerages by providing its residential real estate agents with a first party, end-to-end platform for workflow and customer management, driving higher annual commissions for Compass agents over time. Compass targets the $2 trillion existing home sales addressable market in the US and, within that, ~$95 bn in annual real estate agent commissions,” the analyst wrote.\nGetting to the bottom line, Ng adds, “[We] believe that attractive valuation and adjacent services optionality create a positive risk-reward…”\nTo this end, Ng rates Compass shares a Buy along with a $32 price target. Investors stand to pocket ~79% gain should the analyst's thesis play out. (To view Ng's track record, click here)\nAfter less than month in the public markets, Compass has already picked up 9 analyst reviews. These break down to 5 Buys and 4 Holds, giving the stock a Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating. The average price target of $23 implies an upside of 28% from the current trading price of $17.89. (See COMP stock analysis on TipRanks)\n\nSmart Share Global (EM)\nSmart Share Global, also called Energy Monster, is a Chinese firm that has staked out a fascinating niche in the digital world: it rents out power banks. The company has backing from Alibaba, and in the last three years has secured a 34% market share and over 219 million users, making it the largest charging service provider in China’s mobile device ecosystem.\nLarge market share in a large market has brought in the cash. The company’s revenue in 2020 hit 2.8 billion yuan, or $431 million at current exchange rates, and has spread out to encompass a network of 664,000 power bank rental spots across more than 1,500 of the country’s 2,846 counties and local districts. The user base expanded by 47% in 2020.\nSmart Share Global started trading on the NASDAQ on April 1, with the offering of 17.65 million shares to the public at an initial price of $8.50. The stock actually opened at $10, and closed that first day at $8.54, putting the total capital raised in the neighborhood of $150 million.\nAnalyst Ronald Keung, of Goldman Sachs, sees plenty of reasons to buy into Smart Share Global, and in his initiation report on the stock he lays them out.\n\"We like EM’s: (1) growing network effect, with an extensive national network of 5mn power banks at 664k POIs across 1,500cities (by YE2020), driving better user experience and brand recognition... (2) better-than-peer unit economics with the company picking POIs of high margin/monetization potential, thereby generating Rmb2 daily revenue per power bank, vs peers’Rmb1-1.5. As a result, EM has a very fast cash payback period of five quarters per power bank, which we estimate will lead to double digit net profit margin by 2022; and (3) improving revenue visibility, thanks to key accounts (KA) such as Disney, HTHT, and KFC that are exclusive and long term in nature,\" Keung wrote.\nKeung puts a $13.90 price target on the stock, to go along with his Buy rating. At current levels, that suggests a one-year upside potential of ~65% for the shares. (To watch Keung’s track record, click here)\nThe Goldman review is the first on file for this company, which is currently trading for $8.43 per share. (See EM stock analysis on TipRanks)\n\nTo find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.\nDisclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104143081,"gmtCreate":1620367358443,"gmtModify":1634205717860,"author":{"id":"3573661710609035","authorId":"3573661710609035","name":"ray7","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573661710609035","authorIdStr":"3573661710609035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104143081","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul><p>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p>Some explanations:</p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul><p>Here is the model itself:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p>Final thoughts</p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 12:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company><strong>Seeking alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100587974,"gmtCreate":1619621860198,"gmtModify":1634211250633,"author":{"id":"3573661710609035","authorId":"3573661710609035","name":"ray7","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573661710609035","authorIdStr":"3573661710609035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100587974","repostId":"2130217320","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":104143081,"gmtCreate":1620367358443,"gmtModify":1634205717860,"author":{"id":"3573661710609035","authorId":"3573661710609035","name":"ray7","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573661710609035","authorIdStr":"3573661710609035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104143081","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100587974,"gmtCreate":1619621860198,"gmtModify":1634211250633,"author":{"id":"3573661710609035","authorId":"3573661710609035","name":"ray7","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573661710609035","authorIdStr":"3573661710609035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100587974","repostId":"2130217320","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151838727,"gmtCreate":1625070432869,"gmtModify":1633945131887,"author":{"id":"3573661710609035","authorId":"3573661710609035","name":"ray7","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573661710609035","authorIdStr":"3573661710609035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad info. Down 30% from here","listText":"Bad info. Down 30% from here","text":"Bad info. Down 30% from here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151838727","repostId":"2130217320","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
