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Jonathan_nie

Jonathan_nie

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01-10

$拼多多(PDD)$ 拼多多东西再不行，架不住穷人就是大多数，都是要图个实惠

2022-08-08

$大健云仓(GCT)$核心优势就是有仓储作为护城河，只要运营合理得当，随着经济的发展水涨船高

2022-04-22

阅

市场综述 | 现在就是底！千亿券商首席怒放狠话

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16:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场综述 | 现在就是底！千亿券商首席怒放狠话","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171329155","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：恒生科指反弹0.28%止步3连跌；沪指缩量反弹涨0.23%，北向资金净买入超50亿；美股股指期货小幅震荡，部分中概股盘前反弹；原油期货小幅下跌；黄金期货日内走高。港股港股低开高走，三大指数收盘涨","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：</b>恒生科指反弹0.28%止步3连跌；沪指缩量反弹涨0.23%，北向资金净买入超50亿；美股股指期货小幅震荡，部分中概股盘前反弹；原油期货小幅下跌；黄金期货日内走高。</blockquote><p><b>港股</b></p><p>港股低开高走，三大指数收盘涨跌各异。恒指跌0.21%，录得4连跌，恒生科技指数涨0.28%，止步3连跌行情。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94849db3902742b3091dd943bf4d5ee\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，电力股、煤炭股涨幅亮眼，重型机械股、餐饮股、半导体股多数上涨，物管股与内房股携手反弹；连续下跌的大型科技股部分反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>涨2.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>小幅上涨。另一方面，影视娱乐股、濠赌股跌幅最大；汽车股、保险股、教育股、生物医药股普遍萎靡。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">知乎-W</a>上市首日跌近24%。</p><p><b>A股</b></p><p>三大指数走势分化，上证指数震荡小幅反弹，创业板指震荡下跌再创调整新低。截止收盘，沪指涨0.23%，深成指跌0.29%，创业板指跌0.69%。北向资金全天净买入67.65亿，其中沪股通净买入36.11亿，深股通净买入31.54亿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a844d34ea20f143d1b0a8559429c6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，服装纺织板块大涨，板块内个股掀涨停潮。电力股震荡走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600863\">内蒙华电</a>等多股涨停。次新股大涨，今日上市的新股N清研上涨100.05%。下跌方面，农业相关板块集体走低。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超2900只个股下跌，近百股跌停或跌超10%。沪深两市今日成交额7533亿，较上个交易日缩量674亿。板块方面，服装纺织、电力、油气开采、港口、次新股等板块涨幅居前，农业种植、预制菜、化肥、旅游等板块跌幅居前。</p><p><b>张夏发朋友圈：现在就是底，打脸也站直</b></p><p>今天市场上，比较有意思的就是，千亿龙头券商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>的策略首席张夏老师发了朋友圈，强调现在就是市场底部，并直言“就算打脸，也会站直”！</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4160dbd0fc10212b94bace94073fd7ab\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"931\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“白纸黑字，2.7万人共同见证，就算打脸，也会站直，现在就是底！你们喜欢的爱的因为贵涨多了错过的标的，都跌到了十几倍，20倍，梦寐以求的价格摆在眼前，总之，股票之道，在于人弃我取！”</p><p>同时，他还转发了自己在1月23日、3月19日发布的两篇报告，其中的1月的研报观点称：</p><p>2021年12月以来国内降准降息，而美国则从Taper到加速Taper，3月美联储加息预期强烈，新一轮中美货币政策背离已经开启，5月前后可能成为A股见底的关键时点。本轮中美货币政策背离过程中，3月美联储开启加息几成定局，之后如果美元指数大幅走弱可能意味着市场对美联储5月或6月加息的预期在降低；一季报公布后业绩加速下滑的不利因素释放；3月召开两会后，5月公布的4月社融数据可能超预期上行。综合以上因素，本轮调整结束很可能发生在5月。但如果市场很快形成一致预期则可能提前。</p><p>另外，3月的研报称：</p><p>本轮市场见底五大大底信号与新上行周期起点。信号一：新增社融增速已经转正，但静候中长期社融增速转正与减速改善确立经济拐点。在两会之后政府和企业部门稳增长发力的背景下，新增中长期社融增速未来有望进一步回升。信号二：截至22年3月15日阶段性低点，Wind全A非金融石油石化的估值水平降至24.8倍，考虑盈利变化，4月底估值降低至22倍。与过去7次大底的平均水平相吻合。估值已经见底。信号三：未来随着俄乌局势缓和，中美监管沟通，衍生的金融风险将会逐渐降低。信号四：静候美国利率和美元指数见顶回落。信号五：静候换手率和成交金额阶段性持续回落，A股二次探底不创新低，出现类似W的形状。目前A股已经出现了多个见底信号，若上述见底信号能够同时满足，A股将会迎来更加确定的上行“完美风暴”。</p><p><b>美股</b></p><p>美股股指期货小幅震荡，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.09%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.08%，标普500指数期货跌0.09%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ef14be493ce3ab60ee56b0ae3cd882\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>部分中概股盘前反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨3.17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨2.54%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车涨2.62%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨2.36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨2.43%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨4.34%，公司董事会正考虑宣布和支付现金特别股息。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>盘前跌12.67%，此前宣布子品牌Old Navy的CEO南希·格林将于本周末离职，并预计第一季度销售下降幅度将超过最初的预期。</p><p><b>欧股</b></p><p>欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌1.27%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.38%，法国CAC40跌1.08%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ac9e2b68fe88b7cd692c606e0ea201\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货小幅下跌，截止发稿，WTI原油报103.07美元/桶，跌0.69%；布油现报107.63美元/桶，跌0.65%。</p><p>尽管欧美考虑对俄罗斯石油实施禁令，但俄乌局势似乎“雷声大、雨点小”，短线支撑作用减弱，而且加息前景、全球经济增长疲软以及亚洲防疫封控累及需求、美元强势，令油价短线的下行压力有所增加。技术面短线也略微偏向空头。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46da66b73b2d689f79f558b46fdee111\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c16fa5580611187b99d23f7cf09f380d\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货日内走高，现涨0.16%，报1951.3美元/盎司。</p><p>国际金价基本持稳，但周线料时隔两周后重新收跌，因美元指数继续保持强势，美联储官员对收紧货币政策采取强硬态度，巩固了其将大举加息来应对通胀飙升的预期。鲍威尔还表示，投资者预计美联储年内多次加息0.5个百分点，总体上是对美联储应对物价上涨的新举措做出了适当的反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17916e45012b137f57cff66900df893\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场综述 | 现在就是底！千亿券商首席怒放狠话</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场综述 | 现在就是底！千亿券商首席怒放狠话\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-22 16:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：</b>恒生科指反弹0.28%止步3连跌；沪指缩量反弹涨0.23%，北向资金净买入超50亿；美股股指期货小幅震荡，部分中概股盘前反弹；原油期货小幅下跌；黄金期货日内走高。</blockquote><p><b>港股</b></p><p>港股低开高走，三大指数收盘涨跌各异。恒指跌0.21%，录得4连跌，恒生科技指数涨0.28%，止步3连跌行情。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94849db3902742b3091dd943bf4d5ee\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，电力股、煤炭股涨幅亮眼，重型机械股、餐饮股、半导体股多数上涨，物管股与内房股携手反弹；连续下跌的大型科技股部分反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>涨2.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>小幅上涨。另一方面，影视娱乐股、濠赌股跌幅最大；汽车股、保险股、教育股、生物医药股普遍萎靡。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">知乎-W</a>上市首日跌近24%。</p><p><b>A股</b></p><p>三大指数走势分化，上证指数震荡小幅反弹，创业板指震荡下跌再创调整新低。截止收盘，沪指涨0.23%，深成指跌0.29%，创业板指跌0.69%。北向资金全天净买入67.65亿，其中沪股通净买入36.11亿，深股通净买入31.54亿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a844d34ea20f143d1b0a8559429c6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，服装纺织板块大涨，板块内个股掀涨停潮。电力股震荡走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600863\">内蒙华电</a>等多股涨停。次新股大涨，今日上市的新股N清研上涨100.05%。下跌方面，农业相关板块集体走低。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超2900只个股下跌，近百股跌停或跌超10%。沪深两市今日成交额7533亿，较上个交易日缩量674亿。板块方面，服装纺织、电力、油气开采、港口、次新股等板块涨幅居前，农业种植、预制菜、化肥、旅游等板块跌幅居前。</p><p><b>张夏发朋友圈：现在就是底，打脸也站直</b></p><p>今天市场上，比较有意思的就是，千亿龙头券商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>的策略首席张夏老师发了朋友圈，强调现在就是市场底部，并直言“就算打脸，也会站直”！</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4160dbd0fc10212b94bace94073fd7ab\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"931\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“白纸黑字，2.7万人共同见证，就算打脸，也会站直，现在就是底！你们喜欢的爱的因为贵涨多了错过的标的，都跌到了十几倍，20倍，梦寐以求的价格摆在眼前，总之，股票之道，在于人弃我取！”</p><p>同时，他还转发了自己在1月23日、3月19日发布的两篇报告，其中的1月的研报观点称：</p><p>2021年12月以来国内降准降息，而美国则从Taper到加速Taper，3月美联储加息预期强烈，新一轮中美货币政策背离已经开启，5月前后可能成为A股见底的关键时点。本轮中美货币政策背离过程中，3月美联储开启加息几成定局，之后如果美元指数大幅走弱可能意味着市场对美联储5月或6月加息的预期在降低；一季报公布后业绩加速下滑的不利因素释放；3月召开两会后，5月公布的4月社融数据可能超预期上行。综合以上因素，本轮调整结束很可能发生在5月。但如果市场很快形成一致预期则可能提前。</p><p>另外，3月的研报称：</p><p>本轮市场见底五大大底信号与新上行周期起点。信号一：新增社融增速已经转正，但静候中长期社融增速转正与减速改善确立经济拐点。在两会之后政府和企业部门稳增长发力的背景下，新增中长期社融增速未来有望进一步回升。信号二：截至22年3月15日阶段性低点，Wind全A非金融石油石化的估值水平降至24.8倍，考虑盈利变化，4月底估值降低至22倍。与过去7次大底的平均水平相吻合。估值已经见底。信号三：未来随着俄乌局势缓和，中美监管沟通，衍生的金融风险将会逐渐降低。信号四：静候美国利率和美元指数见顶回落。信号五：静候换手率和成交金额阶段性持续回落，A股二次探底不创新低，出现类似W的形状。目前A股已经出现了多个见底信号，若上述见底信号能够同时满足，A股将会迎来更加确定的上行“完美风暴”。</p><p><b>美股</b></p><p>美股股指期货小幅震荡，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.09%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.08%，标普500指数期货跌0.09%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ef14be493ce3ab60ee56b0ae3cd882\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>部分中概股盘前反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨3.17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨2.54%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车涨2.62%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨2.36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨2.43%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨4.34%，公司董事会正考虑宣布和支付现金特别股息。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>盘前跌12.67%，此前宣布子品牌Old Navy的CEO南希·格林将于本周末离职，并预计第一季度销售下降幅度将超过最初的预期。</p><p><b>欧股</b></p><p>欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌1.27%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.38%，法国CAC40跌1.08%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ac9e2b68fe88b7cd692c606e0ea201\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货小幅下跌，截止发稿，WTI原油报103.07美元/桶，跌0.69%；布油现报107.63美元/桶，跌0.65%。</p><p>尽管欧美考虑对俄罗斯石油实施禁令，但俄乌局势似乎“雷声大、雨点小”，短线支撑作用减弱，而且加息前景、全球经济增长疲软以及亚洲防疫封控累及需求、美元强势，令油价短线的下行压力有所增加。技术面短线也略微偏向空头。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46da66b73b2d689f79f558b46fdee111\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c16fa5580611187b99d23f7cf09f380d\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货日内走高，现涨0.16%，报1951.3美元/盎司。</p><p>国际金价基本持稳，但周线料时隔两周后重新收跌，因美元指数继续保持强势，美联储官员对收紧货币政策采取强硬态度，巩固了其将大举加息来应对通胀飙升的预期。鲍威尔还表示，投资者预计美联储年内多次加息0.5个百分点，总体上是对美联储应对物价上涨的新举措做出了适当的反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17916e45012b137f57cff66900df893\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSCEI":"国企指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171329155","content_text":"摘要：恒生科指反弹0.28%止步3连跌；沪指缩量反弹涨0.23%，北向资金净买入超50亿；美股股指期货小幅震荡，部分中概股盘前反弹；原油期货小幅下跌；黄金期货日内走高。港股港股低开高走，三大指数收盘涨跌各异。恒指跌0.21%，录得4连跌，恒生科技指数涨0.28%，止步3连跌行情。盘面上，电力股、煤炭股涨幅亮眼，重型机械股、餐饮股、半导体股多数上涨，物管股与内房股携手反弹；连续下跌的大型科技股部分反弹，美团-W涨2.6%，京东集团-SW、小米集团-W小幅上涨。另一方面，影视娱乐股、濠赌股跌幅最大；汽车股、保险股、教育股、生物医药股普遍萎靡。知乎-W上市首日跌近24%。A股三大指数走势分化，上证指数震荡小幅反弹，创业板指震荡下跌再创调整新低。截止收盘，沪指涨0.23%，深成指跌0.29%，创业板指跌0.69%。北向资金全天净买入67.65亿，其中沪股通净买入36.11亿，深股通净买入31.54亿。盘面上，服装纺织板块大涨，板块内个股掀涨停潮。电力股震荡走强，内蒙华电等多股涨停。次新股大涨，今日上市的新股N清研上涨100.05%。下跌方面，农业相关板块集体走低。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超2900只个股下跌，近百股跌停或跌超10%。沪深两市今日成交额7533亿，较上个交易日缩量674亿。板块方面，服装纺织、电力、油气开采、港口、次新股等板块涨幅居前，农业种植、预制菜、化肥、旅游等板块跌幅居前。张夏发朋友圈：现在就是底，打脸也站直今天市场上，比较有意思的就是，千亿龙头券商招商证券的策略首席张夏老师发了朋友圈，强调现在就是市场底部，并直言“就算打脸，也会站直”！“白纸黑字，2.7万人共同见证，就算打脸，也会站直，现在就是底！你们喜欢的爱的因为贵涨多了错过的标的，都跌到了十几倍，20倍，梦寐以求的价格摆在眼前，总之，股票之道，在于人弃我取！”同时，他还转发了自己在1月23日、3月19日发布的两篇报告，其中的1月的研报观点称：2021年12月以来国内降准降息，而美国则从Taper到加速Taper，3月美联储加息预期强烈，新一轮中美货币政策背离已经开启，5月前后可能成为A股见底的关键时点。本轮中美货币政策背离过程中，3月美联储开启加息几成定局，之后如果美元指数大幅走弱可能意味着市场对美联储5月或6月加息的预期在降低；一季报公布后业绩加速下滑的不利因素释放；3月召开两会后，5月公布的4月社融数据可能超预期上行。综合以上因素，本轮调整结束很可能发生在5月。但如果市场很快形成一致预期则可能提前。另外，3月的研报称：本轮市场见底五大大底信号与新上行周期起点。信号一：新增社融增速已经转正，但静候中长期社融增速转正与减速改善确立经济拐点。在两会之后政府和企业部门稳增长发力的背景下，新增中长期社融增速未来有望进一步回升。信号二：截至22年3月15日阶段性低点，Wind全A非金融石油石化的估值水平降至24.8倍，考虑盈利变化，4月底估值降低至22倍。与过去7次大底的平均水平相吻合。估值已经见底。信号三：未来随着俄乌局势缓和，中美监管沟通，衍生的金融风险将会逐渐降低。信号四：静候美国利率和美元指数见顶回落。信号五：静候换手率和成交金额阶段性持续回落，A股二次探底不创新低，出现类似W的形状。目前A股已经出现了多个见底信号，若上述见底信号能够同时满足，A股将会迎来更加确定的上行“完美风暴”。美股美股股指期货小幅震荡，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.09%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.08%，标普500指数期货跌0.09%。部分中概股盘前反弹，拼多多涨3.17%，理想汽车涨2.54%，蔚来汽车涨2.62%，阿里巴巴涨2.36%，哔哩哔哩涨2.43%。京东盘前涨4.34%，公司董事会正考虑宣布和支付现金特别股息。Gap盘前跌12.67%，此前宣布子品牌Old Navy的CEO南希·格林将于本周末离职，并预计第一季度销售下降幅度将超过最初的预期。欧股欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌1.27%，英国富时100跌0.38%，法国CAC40跌1.08%。原油原油期货小幅下跌，截止发稿，WTI原油报103.07美元/桶，跌0.69%；布油现报107.63美元/桶，跌0.65%。尽管欧美考虑对俄罗斯石油实施禁令，但俄乌局势似乎“雷声大、雨点小”，短线支撑作用减弱，而且加息前景、全球经济增长疲软以及亚洲防疫封控累及需求、美元强势，令油价短线的下行压力有所增加。技术面短线也略微偏向空头。黄金黄金期货日内走高，现涨0.16%，报1951.3美元/盎司。国际金价基本持稳，但周线料时隔两周后重新收跌，因美元指数继续保持强势，美联储官员对收紧货币政策采取强硬态度，巩固了其将大举加息来应对通胀飙升的预期。鲍威尔还表示，投资者预计美联储年内多次加息0.5个百分点，总体上是对美联储应对物价上涨的新举措做出了适当的反应。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":261614581997816,"gmtCreate":1704897532672,"gmtModify":1704901243271,"author":{"id":"3573614034105977","authorId":"3573614034105977","name":"Jonathan_nie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc69c63e806b1795a07425403fc294a5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573614034105977","authorIdStr":"3573614034105977"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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