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火火先生
10-23
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@京城Z先生:德鲁肯米勒说他夏天卖出英伟达是个巨大的错误,不知道他说这句话时有没有想起00年他犯下的巨大错误: 99年底,德鲁认为科技股到头了卖掉了手里持仓的科技股大赚,但是00年一季度科技股持续飙升,德鲁肯米勒被市场涨的受不了,在00年2月底又重新上车,没过多久科技股崩盘。 德鲁肯米勒的这次骚操作直接导致了索罗斯投资公司清盘、改成了家族办公室,他自己也离开了索罗斯。 说这个并不是说科技股一定会怎么样、很早之前也聊过当下的科技股基本面已经远不是00年所比拟的。而是想说,如德鲁肯米勒这样投资的大佬,在面对卖飞时也会遭受内心的几大煎熬,20年前如此20年后依然,心性修炼是每个投资者的必修课、随意巴菲特说看接班人首要素质就是情绪稳定。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
火火先生
10-08
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
几乎没有放缓迹象,美股牛市将迎两周年!
火火先生
10-04
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@空军大队长:英伟达为什么涨不起来?
火火先生
08-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
法兴大空头:上周的市场暴跌,有一个很简单的解释
火火先生
08-23
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
看涨信号闪现!研究公司:美股明年或现两位数涨幅
火火先生
08-05
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
新AI芯片推迟上市 这对英伟达(NVDA.US)影响有多大?
火火先生
08-02
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@马虎恶魔号:
$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$
我想跟大家说一下,就是说为什么咱们现在的情况是要 我不知道大家有没有经历过当时特朗普最疯狂的那个时代,那个时代就是和现在一样往上去涨涨到爆,第2天全要砸下来。 就是像猴子一样,朝三暮四。但是这种情况对于资本大厂商来说是一个非常好的年代。为什么从最根本的话它会暴涨?是因为他正确掌握了情绪。在情绪里面他可以做杠杆去把这个拉得很高,吸进更多的人。但是人吸进之后,因为每股的t+0的机制可以立刻抛货,第2天把尾盘的货再抛掉。这样的话情绪就会砸到一个冰点,跟单人就会出逃。这个就是侯市战略。所以我建议大家去复盘一下,19年的时候特朗普最疯狂的贸易战。当时在底部吸筹的人,把战线拉长得到了什么我希望大家去看历史因为历史,出奇的相似。你能做到的就是一定要在低价把握上优质的资源。只要你能在这个震荡期收到你想要的筹码。你就是成功的不要看现在的浮亏。大家试想,如果2020年没有covid这个事儿,它的市值又会向怎么样方向发展,而且就算有这个问题。他还是有强烈的支撑。这也就是我为什么认为在这个震荡里面,很多人吸收了很多的筹码的原因。投资优质公司是最主要的总领思路。 但是问题是真正的思路非常简单就是资本家大货主大吵架赚不赚到钱?他们怎么才能赚得更多! 我希望可以看到我文章的这些粉丝,这些朋友能去理解主旨意思。 去摒弃原有的思维。 去像那些老坏逼大抄家。一样去思考这个市场。 然后把胆儿练得更大 我是马虎恶魔号 如果你能理解我的思维,就是我身边的一员 Good luck.
火火先生
07-31
AMD 2024Q2业绩电话会议 - 老虎社区
查看详情:
AMD 2024Q2业绩电话会议 - 老虎社区
AMD 2024Q2业绩电话会议 - 老虎社区 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户
AMD 2024Q2业绩电话会议 - 老虎社区
火火先生
07-31
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
Microsoft Ups Expenditures to Support AI -- Market Talk
火火先生
07-27
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
实时市场-盈利预期攀升
火火先生
07-26
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
“华尔街神算子”:小型股或在8月上涨逾15%!
火火先生
07-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@价值投资为王:科技巨头加码AI,英伟达继续赢麻!
火火先生
07-24
Nvdi
Leverage Shares unveils Europe’s first single stock covered call ETPs
火火先生
07-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
谷歌电话会四大要点:AI“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险
火火先生
07-18
最起码还要疯长三个季度,下跌就是大机会
台积电Q2营收6735.1亿新台币,同比增长40.1%
火火先生
07-15
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
报道:因Blackwell需求强劲,英伟达将其与台积电的晶圆订单量增加了25%
火火先生
07-12
算的很好,看到220,泡沫化300
@金蝉Catherine:
$英伟达(NVDA)$
持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。
火火先生
07-10
本周,更多迹象表明大量资金流入人工智能基础设施,私营数据中心运营商CyrusOne周一表示,已获得79亿美元的信贷额度,为美国现有和未来的开发项目提供资金。
Nvidia Stock Gains After Another Analyst Raises Price Target. How High It Could Go
火火先生
07-06
1.投机 2.信用的扩张 3.欺诈 4.投资者认为该资产的价格永远不会再下跌
Is NVIDIA in a Bubble?
火火先生
07-06
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
软银正计划借款100亿美元采购大量英伟达芯片
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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99年底,德鲁认为科技股到头了卖掉了手里持仓的科技股大赚,但是00年一季度科技股持续飙升,德鲁肯米勒被市场涨的受不了,在00年2月底又重新上车,没过多久科技股崩盘。 德鲁肯米勒的这次骚操作直接导致了索罗斯投资公司清盘、改成了家族办公室,他自己也离开了索罗斯。 说这个并不是说科技股一定会怎么样、很早之前也聊过当下的科技股基本面已经远不是00年所比拟的。而是想说,如德鲁肯米勒这样投资的大佬,在面对卖飞时也会遭受内心的几大煎熬,20年前如此20年后依然,心性修炼是每个投资者的必修课、随意巴菲特说看接班人首要素质就是情绪稳定。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> ","listText":"德鲁肯米勒说他夏天卖出英伟达是个巨大的错误,不知道他说这句话时有没有想起00年他犯下的巨大错误: 99年底,德鲁认为科技股到头了卖掉了手里持仓的科技股大赚,但是00年一季度科技股持续飙升,德鲁肯米勒被市场涨的受不了,在00年2月底又重新上车,没过多久科技股崩盘。 德鲁肯米勒的这次骚操作直接导致了索罗斯投资公司清盘、改成了家族办公室,他自己也离开了索罗斯。 说这个并不是说科技股一定会怎么样、很早之前也聊过当下的科技股基本面已经远不是00年所比拟的。而是想说,如德鲁肯米勒这样投资的大佬,在面对卖飞时也会遭受内心的几大煎熬,20年前如此20年后依然,心性修炼是每个投资者的必修课、随意巴菲特说看接班人首要素质就是情绪稳定。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> ","text":"德鲁肯米勒说他夏天卖出英伟达是个巨大的错误,不知道他说这句话时有没有想起00年他犯下的巨大错误: 99年底,德鲁认为科技股到头了卖掉了手里持仓的科技股大赚,但是00年一季度科技股持续飙升,德鲁肯米勒被市场涨的受不了,在00年2月底又重新上车,没过多久科技股崩盘。 德鲁肯米勒的这次骚操作直接导致了索罗斯投资公司清盘、改成了家族办公室,他自己也离开了索罗斯。 说这个并不是说科技股一定会怎么样、很早之前也聊过当下的科技股基本面已经远不是00年所比拟的。而是想说,如德鲁肯米勒这样投资的大佬,在面对卖飞时也会遭受内心的几大煎熬,20年前如此20年后依然,心性修炼是每个投资者的必修课、随意巴菲特说看接班人首要素质就是情绪稳定。$英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361180570558784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357837508456736,"gmtCreate":1728399385149,"gmtModify":1728399386790,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357837508456736","repostId":"2473379364","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2473379364","pubTimestamp":1728342000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2473379364?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-08 07:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"几乎没有放缓迹象,美股牛市将迎两周年!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2473379364","media":"智通财经","summary":"美国股市的牛市即将迎来两周年纪念,这是本轮反弹的最新里程碑,除了华尔街最乐观的投资者之外,此次反弹超出了几乎所有人的预期。数据显示,尽管过去三个月的上涨路径有些波动,整体牛市几乎没有放缓的迹象。Ned Davis Research的一组分析师深入研究了牛市在达到两周年时的表现。数据显示,自二战结束以来,有12次牛市持续了至少两年。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国股市的牛市即将迎来两周年纪念,这是本轮反弹的最<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002219\">新里程</a>碑,除了华尔街最乐观的投资者之外,此次反弹超出了几乎所有人的预期。</p><p>智通财经APP获悉,自2022年10月12日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数触及3,577.03的收盘低点以来,该指数已上涨超过60%,这一涨幅远远快于许多金融专业人士的预期,迫使华尔街机构多次上调其年终目标。</p><p>数据显示,尽管过去三个月的上涨路径有些波动,整体牛市几乎没有放缓的迹象。根据FactSet的数据,Cboe波动率指数(VIX),即“华尔街恐慌指数”,在8月5日全球市场大幅下跌时一度触及自2020年3月以来的盘中最高水平。然而,这一恐慌很快消退,股市也迅速反弹。类似的下跌也在9月第一周发生,但这一回调同样吸引了投资者低位买入的需求。</p><p>此后,标普500指数在今年前三季度表现强劲,创下自1990年代末以来的最佳表现。如果能保持当前涨势直到年底,标普500指数将连续两年涨幅超过20%,这是自1998年以来的首次。</p><p>然而,近期市场面临的潜在风险有所增加。当前美国股市的估值相较于历史水平较高,仅次于2021年底的峰值。此外,地缘政治风险再次浮现,以色列和伊朗之间的冲突重新升级,推动原油价格上涨,也令股市投资者感到紧张。</p><p>随着第三季度财报季的到来,投资者将密切关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US,GOOG.US)等巨型企业的财报,希望从中找到这些公司巨额投资何时能见回报的线索。随后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)的财报也将受到关注。英伟达在8月的上一轮财报中表现强劲,但仍未能提振股价。</p><p>此外,11月5日的美国大选也让许多交易员购买对冲工具,以防选举结果可能引发的波动,尤其是在选举结果可能出现争议的情况下。</p><p>由于这些不确定性,全球数百万投资者都在寻求市场下一步走势的指引。</p><p>Ned Davis Research的一组分析师深入研究了牛市在达到两周年时的表现。数据显示,自二战结束以来,有12次牛市持续了至少两年。如果本轮牛市能够延续到本周末,它将成为第13次。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e322d216c381dc6b2db852ac59637c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"566\"/></p><p>其中有7次牛市成功进入第三年,表明当前牛市继续延续的概率对投资者有利。根据Ned Davis的统计,过去12次牛市在两周年时的中位数涨幅为54.4%,这意味着过去两年的涨幅与历史相比并不算特别显著。</p><p>但未来走势则更加难以预测。根据Ned Davis团队的分析,牛市在第三年通常获得13.3%的中位数涨幅,但未能延续的牛市则出现了5.9%的回撤。</p><p>值得注意的是,牛市并不会因为“老龄化”而终结。Ned Davis的分析显示,每次牛市的终结都是由某种催化剂引发的。经济衰退是最常见的原因,在三次不同的牛市中导致了其在第三年结束。第四次例外发生在1966年10月,当时美联储通过紧缩货币政策以应对通胀,从而结束了牛市。</p><p>第五次例外是2009年3月开始的牛市,当时股市下滑是由标准普尔下调美国信用评级以及欧洲主权债务危机引发的全球恐慌导致的。</p><p>Ned Davis团队认为,只要以下三个条件得到满足,当前的牛市有望进入第三年。</p><p>首先,自2022年末开始的通胀回落趋势必须继续。如果投资者看到通胀再次加速的明确迹象,可能会引发市场波动。其次,美联储必须成功实现美国经济的“软着陆”,即在维持略微放缓但仍然正增长的情况下,将通胀控制在2%的目标范围内。如果经济进入衰退,股市可能会大幅下滑。不过,Ned Davis经济团队认为目前还没有太多理由担心这一点。</p><p>第三,美国最大的企业必须继续保持盈利增长。华尔街预计,受益于人工智能的“七巨头”企业的盈利增长将在今年晚些时候开始放缓。其他企业将需要填补这一缺口,尽管预测显示这有可能发生,但预测总是存在不确定性,最终还将取决于未来一年的经济表现。</p><p>周一,美股三大指数下跌,纳指跌超1.1%,标普500指数、道指跌近1%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>几乎没有放缓迹象,美股牛市将迎两周年!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n几乎没有放缓迹象,美股牛市将迎两周年!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-08 07:00 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1190697.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国股市的牛市即将迎来两周年纪念,这是本轮反弹的最新里程碑,除了华尔街最乐观的投资者之外,此次反弹超出了几乎所有人的预期。智通财经APP获悉,自2022年10月12日标普500指数触及3,577.03的收盘低点以来,该指数已上涨超过60%,这一涨幅远远快于许多金融专业人士的预期,迫使华尔街机构多次上调其年终目标。数据显示,尽管过去三个月的上涨路径有些波动,整体牛市几乎没有放缓的迹象。根据...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1190697.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1190697.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2473379364","content_text":"美国股市的牛市即将迎来两周年纪念,这是本轮反弹的最新里程碑,除了华尔街最乐观的投资者之外,此次反弹超出了几乎所有人的预期。智通财经APP获悉,自2022年10月12日标普500指数触及3,577.03的收盘低点以来,该指数已上涨超过60%,这一涨幅远远快于许多金融专业人士的预期,迫使华尔街机构多次上调其年终目标。数据显示,尽管过去三个月的上涨路径有些波动,整体牛市几乎没有放缓的迹象。根据FactSet的数据,Cboe波动率指数(VIX),即“华尔街恐慌指数”,在8月5日全球市场大幅下跌时一度触及自2020年3月以来的盘中最高水平。然而,这一恐慌很快消退,股市也迅速反弹。类似的下跌也在9月第一周发生,但这一回调同样吸引了投资者低位买入的需求。此后,标普500指数在今年前三季度表现强劲,创下自1990年代末以来的最佳表现。如果能保持当前涨势直到年底,标普500指数将连续两年涨幅超过20%,这是自1998年以来的首次。然而,近期市场面临的潜在风险有所增加。当前美国股市的估值相较于历史水平较高,仅次于2021年底的峰值。此外,地缘政治风险再次浮现,以色列和伊朗之间的冲突重新升级,推动原油价格上涨,也令股市投资者感到紧张。随着第三季度财报季的到来,投资者将密切关注微软(MSFT.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US,GOOG.US)等巨型企业的财报,希望从中找到这些公司巨额投资何时能见回报的线索。随后,英伟达(NVDA.US)的财报也将受到关注。英伟达在8月的上一轮财报中表现强劲,但仍未能提振股价。此外,11月5日的美国大选也让许多交易员购买对冲工具,以防选举结果可能引发的波动,尤其是在选举结果可能出现争议的情况下。由于这些不确定性,全球数百万投资者都在寻求市场下一步走势的指引。Ned Davis Research的一组分析师深入研究了牛市在达到两周年时的表现。数据显示,自二战结束以来,有12次牛市持续了至少两年。如果本轮牛市能够延续到本周末,它将成为第13次。其中有7次牛市成功进入第三年,表明当前牛市继续延续的概率对投资者有利。根据Ned Davis的统计,过去12次牛市在两周年时的中位数涨幅为54.4%,这意味着过去两年的涨幅与历史相比并不算特别显著。但未来走势则更加难以预测。根据Ned Davis团队的分析,牛市在第三年通常获得13.3%的中位数涨幅,但未能延续的牛市则出现了5.9%的回撤。值得注意的是,牛市并不会因为“老龄化”而终结。Ned Davis的分析显示,每次牛市的终结都是由某种催化剂引发的。经济衰退是最常见的原因,在三次不同的牛市中导致了其在第三年结束。第四次例外发生在1966年10月,当时美联储通过紧缩货币政策以应对通胀,从而结束了牛市。第五次例外是2009年3月开始的牛市,当时股市下滑是由标准普尔下调美国信用评级以及欧洲主权债务危机引发的全球恐慌导致的。Ned Davis团队认为,只要以下三个条件得到满足,当前的牛市有望进入第三年。首先,自2022年末开始的通胀回落趋势必须继续。如果投资者看到通胀再次加速的明确迹象,可能会引发市场波动。其次,美联储必须成功实现美国经济的“软着陆”,即在维持略微放缓但仍然正增长的情况下,将通胀控制在2%的目标范围内。如果经济进入衰退,股市可能会大幅下滑。不过,Ned Davis经济团队认为目前还没有太多理由担心这一点。第三,美国最大的企业必须继续保持盈利增长。华尔街预计,受益于人工智能的“七巨头”企业的盈利增长将在今年晚些时候开始放缓。其他企业将需要填补这一缺口,尽管预测显示这有可能发生,但预测总是存在不确定性,最终还将取决于未来一年的经济表现。周一,美股三大指数下跌,纳指跌超1.1%,标普500指数、道指跌近1%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356512055406984,"gmtCreate":1728041251418,"gmtModify":1728041253224,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356512055406984","repostId":"356502217212216","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":356502217212216,"gmtCreate":1728038651568,"gmtModify":1728229803474,"author":{"id":"74125836878304","authorId":"74125836878304","name":"空军大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491ac6b2de4e6f00b0c07853ca1c186b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"74125836878304","authorIdStr":"74125836878304"},"themes":[],"title":"英伟达为什么涨不起来?","htmlText":"纳斯达克连续跌两天了,但是大跌可能性也不大,毕竟道琼斯不断创新高,主要是降息以后,对股市是有双刺激的,一个是会有更多的资金流入股市,第二个方面就是降息以后,中小公司的收入增长速度会变快,这个才是本质的问题,因为股票上涨的本质是收入增长,所以降息对股市是实打实的利好,很多人担心跟2008年一样会大跌,这不可能的事情,因为情况不一样了,2007年的时候美股市值前几名除了微软之外,其他的全部是传统产业,像通用汽车,埃克森美孚石油,花旗银行这些周期性非常强的公司,这些公司经营杠杆高,不断加息就会破产,而现在Big 7 除了特斯拉是高财务杠杆经营外,其他六个公司都是现金流非常多的非周期性行业,虽然英伟达是周期性行业,但是英伟达没有贷款,现金多得要死,而银行保险地产这些产业的已经不是美国的重要支柱产业了,美国的支柱产业已经变成互联网,软件,芯片,医药这些轻资产的产业了,轻资产行业都是大把的现金流,所以不会出现2008年那种情况了。 今天我说一下为什么英伟达涨不起来,因为违反了我的数学模型,我的数学模型也简单,就是收入增长40%以上的股票不管怎么跌,后面都会涨起来,收入增长80%以上的股票,基本上不怎么跌,每个季度都会上涨,所以选股票只做收入增长80%以上的公司,但是有几种情况不做的,一种是非龙头行业不做,SMCI我就不做,因为不是龙头,市值太小或者收入规模太小也不做,还有就是收入增长速度环比下降的时候也不能做,英伟达的问题就出在这里了,英伟达连续两个季度收入增长速度环比下降,去年四季度收入增长265%,今年一季度收入增长只有262%,收入环比下降的第一个季度,股价还会上涨的,英伟达就大涨了,二季度收入增长122%,环比增长速度继续下降,按我的数学模型,就是收入环比增长下降两个季度股价就会跌,所以英伟达二季度财报出来就跌了,二季度本来预期是280亿美元,结果是300亿美元,虽然超出市场预","listText":"纳斯达克连续跌两天了,但是大跌可能性也不大,毕竟道琼斯不断创新高,主要是降息以后,对股市是有双刺激的,一个是会有更多的资金流入股市,第二个方面就是降息以后,中小公司的收入增长速度会变快,这个才是本质的问题,因为股票上涨的本质是收入增长,所以降息对股市是实打实的利好,很多人担心跟2008年一样会大跌,这不可能的事情,因为情况不一样了,2007年的时候美股市值前几名除了微软之外,其他的全部是传统产业,像通用汽车,埃克森美孚石油,花旗银行这些周期性非常强的公司,这些公司经营杠杆高,不断加息就会破产,而现在Big 7 除了特斯拉是高财务杠杆经营外,其他六个公司都是现金流非常多的非周期性行业,虽然英伟达是周期性行业,但是英伟达没有贷款,现金多得要死,而银行保险地产这些产业的已经不是美国的重要支柱产业了,美国的支柱产业已经变成互联网,软件,芯片,医药这些轻资产的产业了,轻资产行业都是大把的现金流,所以不会出现2008年那种情况了。 今天我说一下为什么英伟达涨不起来,因为违反了我的数学模型,我的数学模型也简单,就是收入增长40%以上的股票不管怎么跌,后面都会涨起来,收入增长80%以上的股票,基本上不怎么跌,每个季度都会上涨,所以选股票只做收入增长80%以上的公司,但是有几种情况不做的,一种是非龙头行业不做,SMCI我就不做,因为不是龙头,市值太小或者收入规模太小也不做,还有就是收入增长速度环比下降的时候也不能做,英伟达的问题就出在这里了,英伟达连续两个季度收入增长速度环比下降,去年四季度收入增长265%,今年一季度收入增长只有262%,收入环比下降的第一个季度,股价还会上涨的,英伟达就大涨了,二季度收入增长122%,环比增长速度继续下降,按我的数学模型,就是收入环比增长下降两个季度股价就会跌,所以英伟达二季度财报出来就跌了,二季度本来预期是280亿美元,结果是300亿美元,虽然超出市场预","text":"纳斯达克连续跌两天了,但是大跌可能性也不大,毕竟道琼斯不断创新高,主要是降息以后,对股市是有双刺激的,一个是会有更多的资金流入股市,第二个方面就是降息以后,中小公司的收入增长速度会变快,这个才是本质的问题,因为股票上涨的本质是收入增长,所以降息对股市是实打实的利好,很多人担心跟2008年一样会大跌,这不可能的事情,因为情况不一样了,2007年的时候美股市值前几名除了微软之外,其他的全部是传统产业,像通用汽车,埃克森美孚石油,花旗银行这些周期性非常强的公司,这些公司经营杠杆高,不断加息就会破产,而现在Big 7 除了特斯拉是高财务杠杆经营外,其他六个公司都是现金流非常多的非周期性行业,虽然英伟达是周期性行业,但是英伟达没有贷款,现金多得要死,而银行保险地产这些产业的已经不是美国的重要支柱产业了,美国的支柱产业已经变成互联网,软件,芯片,医药这些轻资产的产业了,轻资产行业都是大把的现金流,所以不会出现2008年那种情况了。 今天我说一下为什么英伟达涨不起来,因为违反了我的数学模型,我的数学模型也简单,就是收入增长40%以上的股票不管怎么跌,后面都会涨起来,收入增长80%以上的股票,基本上不怎么跌,每个季度都会上涨,所以选股票只做收入增长80%以上的公司,但是有几种情况不做的,一种是非龙头行业不做,SMCI我就不做,因为不是龙头,市值太小或者收入规模太小也不做,还有就是收入增长速度环比下降的时候也不能做,英伟达的问题就出在这里了,英伟达连续两个季度收入增长速度环比下降,去年四季度收入增长265%,今年一季度收入增长只有262%,收入环比下降的第一个季度,股价还会上涨的,英伟达就大涨了,二季度收入增长122%,环比增长速度继续下降,按我的数学模型,就是收入环比增长下降两个季度股价就会跌,所以英伟达二季度财报出来就跌了,二季度本来预期是280亿美元,结果是300亿美元,虽然超出市场预","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356502217212216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341990395924544,"gmtCreate":1724514375403,"gmtModify":1724514379275,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341990395924544","repostId":"2459394084","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2459394084","pubTimestamp":1723535043,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2459394084?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-13 15:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"法兴大空头:上周的市场暴跌,有一个很简单的解释","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2459394084","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"曾预见互联网泡沫崩盘的著名空头认为,近期市场大跌有个非常简单的解释——科技股乐观情绪见顶。当乐观情绪见顶并迅速消退,“我们很快就会发现是谁在裸泳。”","content":"<html><body><p>谈及上周“黑色星期一”背后的原因,主流论调无非是:对美国经济衰退的担忧、日元套利交易平仓、高估值科技股泡沫破裂、市场内部动态及策略转变……</p>\n<p>然而,在华尔街最悲观的分析师Albert Edwards看来,<strong>对于上周股市的大动荡,有一个更加简单粗暴的解释,即市场对科技股的乐观情绪触顶。</strong>Albert Edwards是著名空头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">法国兴业银行</a>的首席全球策略师,他曾成功预见到2000年互联网泡沫的崩盘。</p>\n<p>在机构最新的研报中,Edwards认为,近期市场动荡与分析师对科技公司盈利的乐观情绪达到顶峰有关。数据显示,在人工智能推动的股市上涨周期中,纳斯达克100指数的每股收益(EPS)的升势已经掉头向下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d5cc37dd-5a1a-4f88-be06-cb1bb9508a49.png\"/></p>\n<p>这位分析师警告称,当每股收益(EPS)<strong>乐观情绪开始下滑时,科技股就会失去动力,进而跌破200日移动平均线,大跌的程度将会与其此前过度上涨的幅度相当。</strong></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c392a4f0-ddfe-43c1-b912-210dfa5064a7.png\"/></p>\n<p>用MSCI科技股指数取代纳斯达克时,也可以观察到类似的情况。一旦乐观情绪达到顶峰,它往往会在相当长的一段时间内呈下降趋势,从而拖垮市场导致下跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3c7d6f8a-1868-4cbf-96a2-7aed7f2fa2b9.png\"/></p>\n<p>Edwards认为,对于美国经济衰退的担忧是近期市场崩盘的直接导火索,日元套利交易平仓等其他三个因素联合组成“暴打市场”的残忍凶手。而乐观情绪见顶是最近市场崩盘的一个更简单的解释。</p>\n<p>作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一,Edwards同样并不看好美国的经济数据。他认为,美国许多经济数据令人担忧,尤其是劳动力市场的疲弱。近期,美国失业率数据还触发了著名的“萨姆规则”,预示经济衰退。不过,“萨姆规则”提出者Claudia Sahm称,考虑到如今美国就业市场发生变化,萨姆规则有所失效,并不能证明美国经济已经陷入衰退。</p>\n<p>但<strong>在Edwards看来,标普指数追上劳动力市场(崩溃)的速度是迟早的事情。</strong>法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>研报的图表显示,历史上,美股与劳动力市场状况指数的波动通常是正向关系,二者背道而驰的脱节情况是极不寻常的。</p>\n<p>自2022年11月ChatGPT推出之后的AI热潮以来,美股一直背离劳动力市场状况。按照Edwards的观点,这种状况终将结束,标普指数将跟随劳动力市场一同崩溃。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/87594335-d6dc-4321-8642-1383d1eb0cb4.png\"/></p>\n<p>在研报的最后,Edwards又回到他的关键观点。他写道,<strong>既然每股收益乐观情绪已经达到顶峰并正在迅速消退,“我们很快就会发现是谁在裸泳。”</strong></p>\n<h2>著名大空头:美股正处于泡沫中</h2>\n<p>在过去的几个月中,Edwards一直在警告美国股市泡沫破裂的风险。7月19日,他再次强调,美国科技股的热潮可能即将结束。</p>\n<p>历史数据显示,市场崩溃前往往会出现极度集中的交易现象(比如集中交易科技股),这与2007-2008年全球金融危机和2022年熊市之前的市场情况相似。Edwards认为,没有理由相信这次会有所不同。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7706e6cf-7a6d-474b-b42d-587d6e2ae1d0.png\"/></p>\n<p>当时,<strong>Edwards认为纳斯达克的困境可能只是开始,并对支撑牛市的人工智能繁荣论点提出了质疑</strong>,这些论点曾助力美国主要股指创下历史新高。</p>\n<p>许多分析师强调“人工智能革命”将带来企业盈利的大幅增长。例如,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等大型科技公司的高估值似乎变得合理。然而,Edwards持有不同观点。他指出,过去对网络设备的大量投资曾使思科系统公司在互联网泡沫顶峰时短暂成为全球市值最高的公司,但随后其股价迅速暴跌。</p>\n<p>事实上,除了英伟达等少数公司外,人工智能尚未带来预期中的盈利增长。据媒体报道,在Edwards看来,前段时间美股上涨的真正动力似乎不是企业利润增长,而是美联储引入的充裕流动性。</p>\n<p>Edwards认为,将美联储的量化紧缩视为货币政策收紧的观点是不准确的。尽管美联储通过量化紧缩减少了债券持有量,但其货币市场操作,特别是通过美联储逆回购机制的持续放水,实际上向金融体系注入了更多资金,这抵消了流动性的流失。他进一步指出,这导致美国的货币基础在过去一年中持续扩大,这与美联储声称的从金融体系中抽走流动性的说法并不一致。</p>\n<p>今年4月,Edwards就警告到,<strong>人工智能热潮已经失控,美国股市过去五个月的上涨呈现出泡沫的所有特征。他认为,人工智能热潮加上美联储的“宽松”货币政策,已经助长了美国股市的又一个泡沫。</strong></p><div>风险提示及免责条款</div>\n<div>\n 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。\n </div>\n</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>法兴大空头:上周的市场暴跌,有一个很简单的解释</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n法兴大空头:上周的市场暴跌,有一个很简单的解释\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-13 15:44 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3723811><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>谈及上周“黑色星期一”背后的原因,主流论调无非是:对美国经济衰退的担忧、日元套利交易平仓、高估值科技股泡沫破裂、市场内部动态及策略转变……\n然而,在华尔街最悲观的分析师Albert Edwards看来,对于上周股市的大动荡,有一个更加简单粗暴的解释,即市场对科技股的乐观情绪触顶。Albert Edwards是著名空头法国兴业银行的首席全球策略师,他曾成功预见到2000年互联网泡沫的崩盘。\n在机构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3723811\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f2575683-08ab-4693-bb75-e7b792a71f1a.png","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","EPS":"WisdomTree U.S. LargeCap Fund","03086":"华夏纳指","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3723811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2459394084","content_text":"谈及上周“黑色星期一”背后的原因,主流论调无非是:对美国经济衰退的担忧、日元套利交易平仓、高估值科技股泡沫破裂、市场内部动态及策略转变……\n然而,在华尔街最悲观的分析师Albert Edwards看来,对于上周股市的大动荡,有一个更加简单粗暴的解释,即市场对科技股的乐观情绪触顶。Albert Edwards是著名空头法国兴业银行的首席全球策略师,他曾成功预见到2000年互联网泡沫的崩盘。\n在机构最新的研报中,Edwards认为,近期市场动荡与分析师对科技公司盈利的乐观情绪达到顶峰有关。数据显示,在人工智能推动的股市上涨周期中,纳斯达克100指数的每股收益(EPS)的升势已经掉头向下。\n\n这位分析师警告称,当每股收益(EPS)乐观情绪开始下滑时,科技股就会失去动力,进而跌破200日移动平均线,大跌的程度将会与其此前过度上涨的幅度相当。\n\n用MSCI科技股指数取代纳斯达克时,也可以观察到类似的情况。一旦乐观情绪达到顶峰,它往往会在相当长的一段时间内呈下降趋势,从而拖垮市场导致下跌。\n\nEdwards认为,对于美国经济衰退的担忧是近期市场崩盘的直接导火索,日元套利交易平仓等其他三个因素联合组成“暴打市场”的残忍凶手。而乐观情绪见顶是最近市场崩盘的一个更简单的解释。\n作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一,Edwards同样并不看好美国的经济数据。他认为,美国许多经济数据令人担忧,尤其是劳动力市场的疲弱。近期,美国失业率数据还触发了著名的“萨姆规则”,预示经济衰退。不过,“萨姆规则”提出者Claudia Sahm称,考虑到如今美国就业市场发生变化,萨姆规则有所失效,并不能证明美国经济已经陷入衰退。\n但在Edwards看来,标普指数追上劳动力市场(崩溃)的速度是迟早的事情。法国兴业银行研报的图表显示,历史上,美股与劳动力市场状况指数的波动通常是正向关系,二者背道而驰的脱节情况是极不寻常的。\n自2022年11月ChatGPT推出之后的AI热潮以来,美股一直背离劳动力市场状况。按照Edwards的观点,这种状况终将结束,标普指数将跟随劳动力市场一同崩溃。\n\n在研报的最后,Edwards又回到他的关键观点。他写道,既然每股收益乐观情绪已经达到顶峰并正在迅速消退,“我们很快就会发现是谁在裸泳。”\n著名大空头:美股正处于泡沫中\n在过去的几个月中,Edwards一直在警告美国股市泡沫破裂的风险。7月19日,他再次强调,美国科技股的热潮可能即将结束。\n历史数据显示,市场崩溃前往往会出现极度集中的交易现象(比如集中交易科技股),这与2007-2008年全球金融危机和2022年熊市之前的市场情况相似。Edwards认为,没有理由相信这次会有所不同。\n\n当时,Edwards认为纳斯达克的困境可能只是开始,并对支撑牛市的人工智能繁荣论点提出了质疑,这些论点曾助力美国主要股指创下历史新高。\n许多分析师强调“人工智能革命”将带来企业盈利的大幅增长。例如,英伟达等大型科技公司的高估值似乎变得合理。然而,Edwards持有不同观点。他指出,过去对网络设备的大量投资曾使思科系统公司在互联网泡沫顶峰时短暂成为全球市值最高的公司,但随后其股价迅速暴跌。\n事实上,除了英伟达等少数公司外,人工智能尚未带来预期中的盈利增长。据媒体报道,在Edwards看来,前段时间美股上涨的真正动力似乎不是企业利润增长,而是美联储引入的充裕流动性。\nEdwards认为,将美联储的量化紧缩视为货币政策收紧的观点是不准确的。尽管美联储通过量化紧缩减少了债券持有量,但其货币市场操作,特别是通过美联储逆回购机制的持续放水,实际上向金融体系注入了更多资金,这抵消了流动性的流失。他进一步指出,这导致美国的货币基础在过去一年中持续扩大,这与美联储声称的从金融体系中抽走流动性的说法并不一致。\n今年4月,Edwards就警告到,人工智能热潮已经失控,美国股市过去五个月的上涨呈现出泡沫的所有特征。他认为,人工智能热潮加上美联储的“宽松”货币政策,已经助长了美国股市的又一个泡沫。风险提示及免责条款\n\n 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341503554912328,"gmtCreate":1724415412338,"gmtModify":1724415413837,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341503554912328","repostId":"1167725620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167725620","pubTimestamp":1724392765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167725620?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-23 13:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"看涨信号闪现!研究公司:美股明年或现两位数涨幅","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167725620","media":"金十数据","summary":"美股刚刚闪现出一个看涨的技术指标,表明标普500指数明年将有两位数的涨幅。但从那时起,标普500指数反弹了近10%,距离历史高点仅差1%。克利索德表示,他希望在三个月内看到至少五次广度推力信号闪现,以确定股市未来还有更多上涨空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美股刚刚闪现出一个看涨的技术指标,表明标普500指数(SPX)明年将有两位数的涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈德-戴维斯研究公司(Ned Davis Research)策略师埃德-克利索德(Ed Clissold)周三撰文称,继8月初的抛售之后,<strong>股市已进入筑底过程的第四阶段</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在7月份就业报告疲软、日元套利交易平仓、巴菲特减持苹果股份等一系列风险事件的影响下,8月初美股下跌超过5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但从那时起,标普500指数反弹了近10%,距离历史高点仅差1%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利索德解释说:“新的广度推力信号确认市场正处于筑底过程的第四步,并已越过近期的回调。股市筑底的四个阶段是超卖、反弹、回测和广度推力。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">股市很少会在极短时间内从超卖摇摆到超买,一旦迅速出现这种情况,那么就形成罕见的广度推力信号。8月19日,广度推力信号闪现,即股市从极少数股票参与上涨迅速过渡到许多股票同时走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利索德说:“这是个看涨信号的理由是,如果少数股票陷入困境,其他股票就会推动热门股指走高。重大走势的开端往往以广度推力信号为标志,即极高比例的股票共同反弹。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一,当NDR内部多重市值股票系列(Multi-Cap Equity Series)中超过90%的股票跳涨至10日移动均线以上时,广度推力“爆发”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这样的情况自1980年以来共发生过42次,且股市在随后一年内有95%的时间上涨,平均涨幅为10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果从目前的水平上涨,<strong>标普500指数将略高于6100点</strong>,这几乎与一位华尔街多头预测的2025年目标一致。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8月8日,股市出现了“11:1的上涨日”,即上涨股票的成交量是下跌股票累计成交量的11倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利索德表示,他希望在三个月内看到至少五次广度推力信号闪现,以确定股市未来还有更多上涨空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该报告称,自7月16日以来,迄今已有三次信号闪烁,但即使到10月中旬不能再看到两次信号闪烁,由于预期利率会下降,股市也可能处于有利位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利索德说:“我们可能得不到五次广度推力信号,但其他趋势指标正在转向看涨。利率下降是另一个对多头有利的因素。”</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>看涨信号闪现!研究公司:美股明年或现两位数涨幅</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n看涨信号闪现!研究公司:美股明年或现两位数涨幅\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-23 13:59 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/146554><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股刚刚闪现出一个看涨的技术指标,表明标普500指数(SPX)明年将有两位数的涨幅。奈德-戴维斯研究公司(Ned Davis Research)策略师埃德-克利索德(Ed Clissold)周三撰文称,继8月初的抛售之后,股市已进入筑底过程的第四阶段。在7月份就业报告疲软、日元套利交易平仓、巴菲特减持苹果股份等一系列风险事件的影响下,8月初美股下跌超过5%。但从那时起,标普500指数反弹了近10%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/146554\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/146554","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167725620","content_text":"美股刚刚闪现出一个看涨的技术指标,表明标普500指数(SPX)明年将有两位数的涨幅。奈德-戴维斯研究公司(Ned Davis Research)策略师埃德-克利索德(Ed Clissold)周三撰文称,继8月初的抛售之后,股市已进入筑底过程的第四阶段。在7月份就业报告疲软、日元套利交易平仓、巴菲特减持苹果股份等一系列风险事件的影响下,8月初美股下跌超过5%。但从那时起,标普500指数反弹了近10%,距离历史高点仅差1%。克利索德解释说:“新的广度推力信号确认市场正处于筑底过程的第四步,并已越过近期的回调。股市筑底的四个阶段是超卖、反弹、回测和广度推力。”股市很少会在极短时间内从超卖摇摆到超买,一旦迅速出现这种情况,那么就形成罕见的广度推力信号。8月19日,广度推力信号闪现,即股市从极少数股票参与上涨迅速过渡到许多股票同时走高。克利索德说:“这是个看涨信号的理由是,如果少数股票陷入困境,其他股票就会推动热门股指走高。重大走势的开端往往以广度推力信号为标志,即极高比例的股票共同反弹。”周一,当NDR内部多重市值股票系列(Multi-Cap Equity Series)中超过90%的股票跳涨至10日移动均线以上时,广度推力“爆发”。这样的情况自1980年以来共发生过42次,且股市在随后一年内有95%的时间上涨,平均涨幅为10%。如果从目前的水平上涨,标普500指数将略高于6100点,这几乎与一位华尔街多头预测的2025年目标一致。8月8日,股市出现了“11:1的上涨日”,即上涨股票的成交量是下跌股票累计成交量的11倍。克利索德表示,他希望在三个月内看到至少五次广度推力信号闪现,以确定股市未来还有更多上涨空间。该报告称,自7月16日以来,迄今已有三次信号闪烁,但即使到10月中旬不能再看到两次信号闪烁,由于预期利率会下降,股市也可能处于有利位置。克利索德说:“我们可能得不到五次广度推力信号,但其他趋势指标正在转向看涨。利率下降是另一个对多头有利的因素。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334989701017688,"gmtCreate":1722817639997,"gmtModify":1722817641373,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334989701017688","repostId":"2456010932","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456010932","pubTimestamp":1722737129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2456010932?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-04 10:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新AI芯片推迟上市 这对英伟达(NVDA.US)影响有多大?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456010932","media":"智通财经网","summary":"据分析师预测,B200芯片延迟发布后,售价可能定为3万到4万美元之间,截至2025年1月的季度发货量将达到约32500块,营收贡献将达到30亿美元,占当季总预期收入的9%。","content":"<html><body><div> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)推迟出货B200,对营收影响几何?</p><p>据科技媒体The Information报道,英伟达向其客户表示,新款Blackwell B200芯片将延迟发布三个月或更长时间,批量出货或延迟至明年Q1。</p><p>Blackwell芯片原计划于2024年10月开始批量生产,若因延期而推迟至2025年4月,将直接影响英伟达的季度收益。对此,英伟达回应媒体称,对Hopper芯片的强劲需求和Blackwell芯片的生产计划并未改变。</p><p>英伟达发言人表示:</p><p>“正如我们之前所说,Hopper的需求非常强劲。大规模的Blackwell采样工作已经完成,下半年的生产将按计划进行。除此之外,我们不对传言发表评论。”</p><p><strong>这意味着,即使B200延迟上市,对英伟达营收的影响程度可能不会特别大,因为Hopper芯片的市场需求依然旺盛。</strong></p><p>目前,Blackwell GPU架构已知的芯片款式有B100、B200和GB200超级芯片三类。如果B200芯片延迟发布,据Mizuho分析师Vijay Rakesh估算,其售价可能定为3万到4万美元之间,GB200可能定价在5万到7万美元之间。</p><p>瑞银分析师Timothy Arcuri则预测,到截至2025年1月的季度中,B200和GB200的发货量将分别达到约32500块和43400块,但仅占当季所有芯片发货量的7%,大多数发货的仍是Hopper芯片。</p><p><strong>结合两位分析师的估算,B200产品明年1月当季的营收贡献将达到30亿美元,占当季总预期收入(345亿美元)的9%。</strong></p><p>对英伟达的客户来说,芯片推迟可能会加剧其对收货时点的担忧。据悉,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和Facebook母公司Meta在内的科技巨头二季度的资本支出总计近600亿美元,同比增长三分之二,其中很大一部分流向了英伟达。</p><p>the Information还报道称,Meta现已定下价值至少100亿美元的订单,而微软在近几周内将其订单规模增加了20%,并计划在2025年Q1之前为OpenAI准备好55000-65000块GB200芯片。</p><p>此外,设计缺陷还将影响英伟达NVLink服务器机架的生产和交付,因为从事服务器工作的公司必须等待新的芯片样品,然后才能最终确定服务器机架设计。</p><p>不过,仍有观点指出,英伟达在销售和营收方面的小幅波动不太可能改变其在华尔街的受欢迎程度。截至周五,英伟达股价收于107美元,其按今年预期盈利计算的市盈率为40倍,明年预期市盈率为30倍,仍处于高位。</p><p><strong>本文转自“华尔街见闻”;智通财经编辑:陈筱亦</strong></p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新AI芯片推迟上市 这对英伟达(NVDA.US)影响有多大?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新AI芯片推迟上市 这对英伟达(NVDA.US)影响有多大?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-04 10:05 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1159656.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英伟达(NVDA.US)推迟出货B200,对营收影响几何?据科技媒体The Information报道,英伟达向其客户表示,新款Blackwell B200芯片将延迟发布三个月或更长时间,批量出货或延迟至明年Q1。Blackwell芯片原计划于2024年10月开始批量生产,若因延期而推迟至2025年4月,将直接影响英伟达的季度收益。对此,英伟达回应媒体称,对Hopper芯片的强劲需求和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1159656.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20240804/20240804100540_47210.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1159656.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2456010932","content_text":"英伟达(NVDA.US)推迟出货B200,对营收影响几何?据科技媒体The Information报道,英伟达向其客户表示,新款Blackwell B200芯片将延迟发布三个月或更长时间,批量出货或延迟至明年Q1。Blackwell芯片原计划于2024年10月开始批量生产,若因延期而推迟至2025年4月,将直接影响英伟达的季度收益。对此,英伟达回应媒体称,对Hopper芯片的强劲需求和Blackwell芯片的生产计划并未改变。英伟达发言人表示:“正如我们之前所说,Hopper的需求非常强劲。大规模的Blackwell采样工作已经完成,下半年的生产将按计划进行。除此之外,我们不对传言发表评论。”这意味着,即使B200延迟上市,对英伟达营收的影响程度可能不会特别大,因为Hopper芯片的市场需求依然旺盛。目前,Blackwell GPU架构已知的芯片款式有B100、B200和GB200超级芯片三类。如果B200芯片延迟发布,据Mizuho分析师Vijay Rakesh估算,其售价可能定为3万到4万美元之间,GB200可能定价在5万到7万美元之间。瑞银分析师Timothy Arcuri则预测,到截至2025年1月的季度中,B200和GB200的发货量将分别达到约32500块和43400块,但仅占当季所有芯片发货量的7%,大多数发货的仍是Hopper芯片。结合两位分析师的估算,B200产品明年1月当季的营收贡献将达到30亿美元,占当季总预期收入(345亿美元)的9%。对英伟达的客户来说,芯片推迟可能会加剧其对收货时点的担忧。据悉,包括谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、微软和Facebook母公司Meta在内的科技巨头二季度的资本支出总计近600亿美元,同比增长三分之二,其中很大一部分流向了英伟达。the Information还报道称,Meta现已定下价值至少100亿美元的订单,而微软在近几周内将其订单规模增加了20%,并计划在2025年Q1之前为OpenAI准备好55000-65000块GB200芯片。此外,设计缺陷还将影响英伟达NVLink服务器机架的生产和交付,因为从事服务器工作的公司必须等待新的芯片样品,然后才能最终确定服务器机架设计。不过,仍有观点指出,英伟达在销售和营收方面的小幅波动不太可能改变其在华尔街的受欢迎程度。截至周五,英伟达股价收于107美元,其按今年预期盈利计算的市盈率为40倍,明年预期市盈率为30倍,仍处于高位。本文转自“华尔街见闻”;智通财经编辑:陈筱亦","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334039563116648,"gmtCreate":1722585569469,"gmtModify":1722585574089,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334039563116648","repostId":"333980289744936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":333980289744936,"gmtCreate":1722571132257,"gmtModify":1722579023865,"author":{"id":"3458349567571181","authorId":"3458349567571181","name":"马虎恶魔号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5309b4545d61bcba8ee06c42836bf26f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458349567571181","authorIdStr":"3458349567571181"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ </a> 我想跟大家说一下,就是说为什么咱们现在的情况是要 我不知道大家有没有经历过当时特朗普最疯狂的那个时代,那个时代就是和现在一样往上去涨涨到爆,第2天全要砸下来。 就是像猴子一样,朝三暮四。但是这种情况对于资本大厂商来说是一个非常好的年代。为什么从最根本的话它会暴涨?是因为他正确掌握了情绪。在情绪里面他可以做杠杆去把这个拉得很高,吸进更多的人。但是人吸进之后,因为每股的t+0的机制可以立刻抛货,第2天把尾盘的货再抛掉。这样的话情绪就会砸到一个冰点,跟单人就会出逃。这个就是侯市战略。所以我建议大家去复盘一下,19年的时候特朗普最疯狂的贸易战。当时在底部吸筹的人,把战线拉长得到了什么我希望大家去看历史因为历史,出奇的相似。你能做到的就是一定要在低价把握上优质的资源。只要你能在这个震荡期收到你想要的筹码。你就是成功的不要看现在的浮亏。大家试想,如果2020年没有covid这个事儿,它的市值又会向怎么样方向发展,而且就算有这个问题。他还是有强烈的支撑。这也就是我为什么认为在这个震荡里面,很多人吸收了很多的筹码的原因。投资优质公司是最主要的总领思路。 但是问题是真正的思路非常简单就是资本家大货主大吵架赚不赚到钱?他们怎么才能赚得更多! 我希望可以看到我文章的这些粉丝,这些朋友能去理解主旨意思。 去摒弃原有的思维。 去像那些老坏逼大抄家。一样去思考这个市场。 然后把胆儿练得更大 我是马虎恶魔号 如果你能理解我的思维,就是我身边的一员 Good luck.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ </a> 我想跟大家说一下,就是说为什么咱们现在的情况是要 我不知道大家有没有经历过当时特朗普最疯狂的那个时代,那个时代就是和现在一样往上去涨涨到爆,第2天全要砸下来。 就是像猴子一样,朝三暮四。但是这种情况对于资本大厂商来说是一个非常好的年代。为什么从最根本的话它会暴涨?是因为他正确掌握了情绪。在情绪里面他可以做杠杆去把这个拉得很高,吸进更多的人。但是人吸进之后,因为每股的t+0的机制可以立刻抛货,第2天把尾盘的货再抛掉。这样的话情绪就会砸到一个冰点,跟单人就会出逃。这个就是侯市战略。所以我建议大家去复盘一下,19年的时候特朗普最疯狂的贸易战。当时在底部吸筹的人,把战线拉长得到了什么我希望大家去看历史因为历史,出奇的相似。你能做到的就是一定要在低价把握上优质的资源。只要你能在这个震荡期收到你想要的筹码。你就是成功的不要看现在的浮亏。大家试想,如果2020年没有covid这个事儿,它的市值又会向怎么样方向发展,而且就算有这个问题。他还是有强烈的支撑。这也就是我为什么认为在这个震荡里面,很多人吸收了很多的筹码的原因。投资优质公司是最主要的总领思路。 但是问题是真正的思路非常简单就是资本家大货主大吵架赚不赚到钱?他们怎么才能赚得更多! 我希望可以看到我文章的这些粉丝,这些朋友能去理解主旨意思。 去摒弃原有的思维。 去像那些老坏逼大抄家。一样去思考这个市场。 然后把胆儿练得更大 我是马虎恶魔号 如果你能理解我的思维,就是我身边的一员 Good luck.","text":"$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ 我想跟大家说一下,就是说为什么咱们现在的情况是要 我不知道大家有没有经历过当时特朗普最疯狂的那个时代,那个时代就是和现在一样往上去涨涨到爆,第2天全要砸下来。 就是像猴子一样,朝三暮四。但是这种情况对于资本大厂商来说是一个非常好的年代。为什么从最根本的话它会暴涨?是因为他正确掌握了情绪。在情绪里面他可以做杠杆去把这个拉得很高,吸进更多的人。但是人吸进之后,因为每股的t+0的机制可以立刻抛货,第2天把尾盘的货再抛掉。这样的话情绪就会砸到一个冰点,跟单人就会出逃。这个就是侯市战略。所以我建议大家去复盘一下,19年的时候特朗普最疯狂的贸易战。当时在底部吸筹的人,把战线拉长得到了什么我希望大家去看历史因为历史,出奇的相似。你能做到的就是一定要在低价把握上优质的资源。只要你能在这个震荡期收到你想要的筹码。你就是成功的不要看现在的浮亏。大家试想,如果2020年没有covid这个事儿,它的市值又会向怎么样方向发展,而且就算有这个问题。他还是有强烈的支撑。这也就是我为什么认为在这个震荡里面,很多人吸收了很多的筹码的原因。投资优质公司是最主要的总领思路。 但是问题是真正的思路非常简单就是资本家大货主大吵架赚不赚到钱?他们怎么才能赚得更多! 我希望可以看到我文章的这些粉丝,这些朋友能去理解主旨意思。 去摒弃原有的思维。 去像那些老坏逼大抄家。一样去思考这个市场。 然后把胆儿练得更大 我是马虎恶魔号 如果你能理解我的思维,就是我身边的一员 Good luck.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fb0304d0353f441579c65cff837d5","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333980289744936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333230677577824,"gmtCreate":1722380930604,"gmtModify":1722391254795,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"title":"AMD 2024Q2业绩电话会议 - 老虎社区","htmlText":"查看详情:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/9qvB7t\">AMD 2024Q2业绩电话会议 - 老虎社区</a> AMD 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此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333230677577824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333227253793040,"gmtCreate":1722379956188,"gmtModify":1722379957912,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333227253793040","repostId":"2455999894","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2455999894","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1722372900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2455999894?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-31 04:55","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Ups Expenditures to Support AI -- Market Talk","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2455999894","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"1655 ET - Infrastructure to support artificial intelligence innovations doesn't come cheap. Microsoft in its fiscal 4Q spends $13.9 billion, up 55% from the previous year, as it doubles down on building out data centers and hardware to power its growing AI business. These increased expenditures are supported by higher revenue, driven by AI. The tech giant's cloud revenue, which includes its AI offerings in partnership with OpenAI, increases 21%. Overall revenue rises 15%. ","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n 1655 ET - Infrastructure to support artificial intelligence innovations doesn't come cheap. Microsoft in its fiscal 4Q spends $13.9 billion, up 55% from the previous year, as it doubles down on building out data centers and hardware to power its growing AI business. These increased expenditures are supported by higher revenue, driven by AI. The tech giant's cloud revenue, which includes its AI offerings in partnership with OpenAI, increases 21%. Overall revenue rises 15%. (connor.hart@wsj.com; @connorhart22) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n July 30, 2024 16:55 ET (20:55 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Ups Expenditures to Support AI -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Ups Expenditures to Support AI -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-31 04:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n 1655 ET - Infrastructure to support artificial intelligence innovations doesn't come cheap. Microsoft in its fiscal 4Q spends $13.9 billion, up 55% from the previous year, as it doubles down on building out data centers and hardware to power its growing AI business. These increased expenditures are supported by higher revenue, driven by AI. The tech giant's cloud revenue, which includes its AI offerings in partnership with OpenAI, increases 21%. Overall revenue rises 15%. (connor.hart@wsj.com; @connorhart22) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n July 30, 2024 16:55 ET (20:55 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4097":"系统软件","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1 Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","MSFT":"微软","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2455999894","content_text":"1655 ET - Infrastructure to support artificial intelligence innovations doesn't come cheap. Microsoft in its fiscal 4Q spends $13.9 billion, up 55% from the previous year, as it doubles down on building out data centers and hardware to power its growing AI business. These increased expenditures are supported by higher revenue, driven by AI. The tech giant's cloud revenue, which includes its AI offerings in partnership with OpenAI, increases 21%. Overall revenue rises 15%. (connor.hart@wsj.com; @connorhart22) \n\n\n \n\n\n (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n July 30, 2024 16:55 ET (20:55 GMT)\n\n\n Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331806064390224,"gmtCreate":1722014081228,"gmtModify":1722014082582,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331806064390224","repostId":"2454373844","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2454373844","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1722013784,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2454373844?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-27 01:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"实时市场-盈利预期攀升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2454373844","media":"Reuters","summary":"根据 LSEG 分析师 Tajinder Dhillon 的最新报告,在已经公布的 206 份报告中,华尔街对第二季度盈利增长的混合预期,目前为同比增长 12.1%,如果不包括能源行业,则为同比增长 13%。LSEG 称,总的来说,各公司报告的盈利比预期高出 4.4%,高于 1994 年以来,但低于过去四个季度 7.3% 的超预期率。目前预计第二季度增长 4.8%,如果剔除能源因素,这一预期不会改变。","content":"<html><body><p>((自动化翻译由路透提供,请见免责声明 ))</p><p> * </p><p> 美国股票指数反弹:道指涨幅居前,上涨 ~2</p><p> * </p><p> 标准普尔 500 指数所有板块均上涨;工业板块涨幅居前,涨幅大于 2</p><p> * </p><p> 美元走红;黄金上涨 ~1%;比特币上涨 >3%;原油下跌 >1</p><p> * </p><p> 美国 10 年期国债收益率跌至 ~4.21</p><p> 7月26日 - 欢迎来到路透记者为您带来的市场实时报道之家。您可以通过以下网址与我们分享您的想法 </p><p>盈利预期攀升</p><p>尽管本周不太引人注目的财报在市场上引起了不小的轰动 (link),但伦敦证交所的最新数据显示,随着财报季的深入,市场对标准普尔 500 指数 的预期逐步提高。 </p><p>根据 LSEG 分析师 Tajinder Dhillon 的最新报告,在已经公布的 206 份报告中,华尔街对第二季度盈利增长的混合预期(,包括预期和实际报告),目前为同比增长 12.1%,如果不包括能源行业,则为同比增长 13%。 </p><p>在上周五的报告(7 月 19 日) 中,混合预期为 11.1%,剔除能源行业后为 12.0%。</p><p>LSEG 称,总的来说,各公司报告的盈利比预期高出 4.4%,高于 1994 年以来(4.2% 的长期超预期率),但低于过去四个季度 7.3% 的超预期率。</p><p>目前预计第二季度增长 4.8%,如果剔除能源因素,这一预期不会改变。增长预期从上周五的 4.5% 上调。 </p><p>在预期变化方面,金融行业 的变化最大,该行业目前预计每股收益将增长 17.6%,而在 7 月 1 日财报开始前,(,预期为 8.8%)。不过,需要注意的是,金融行业大多在财报季初期公布业绩。 </p><p>不过,请抓紧时间,系好安全带,等待(8 月 2 日的下一份周报),因为在接下来的几天里,市场重量级企业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> 将于周二发布财报,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a> 将于周四发布财报。 </p><p>(Sinéad Carew)</p><p>***** </p><p>查看周五早些时候的实时市场文章:</p><p>个人投资者牛市暴跌,熊市暴涨 - Aaii - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>周五数据奥林匹克:PCE(几乎) 坚持着陆 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>美国股市上涨,因通胀数据指向降息 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>美股期货在 PCE 之后小幅收窄涨幅 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>不要称之为轮动 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>市场对不存在的经济衰退做出反应 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>盈利帮助欧洲指数 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>忙忙碌碌 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>股市在疯狂一周后站稳脚跟 - 点击此处 (link) </p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>实时市场-盈利预期攀升</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n实时市场-盈利预期攀升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-27 01:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>((自动化翻译由路透提供,请见免责声明 ))</p><p> * </p><p> 美国股票指数反弹:道指涨幅居前,上涨 ~2</p><p> * </p><p> 标准普尔 500 指数所有板块均上涨;工业板块涨幅居前,涨幅大于 2</p><p> * </p><p> 美元走红;黄金上涨 ~1%;比特币上涨 >3%;原油下跌 >1</p><p> * </p><p> 美国 10 年期国债收益率跌至 ~4.21</p><p> 7月26日 - 欢迎来到路透记者为您带来的市场实时报道之家。您可以通过以下网址与我们分享您的想法 </p><p>盈利预期攀升</p><p>尽管本周不太引人注目的财报在市场上引起了不小的轰动 (link),但伦敦证交所的最新数据显示,随着财报季的深入,市场对标准普尔 500 指数 的预期逐步提高。 </p><p>根据 LSEG 分析师 Tajinder Dhillon 的最新报告,在已经公布的 206 份报告中,华尔街对第二季度盈利增长的混合预期(,包括预期和实际报告),目前为同比增长 12.1%,如果不包括能源行业,则为同比增长 13%。 </p><p>在上周五的报告(7 月 19 日) 中,混合预期为 11.1%,剔除能源行业后为 12.0%。</p><p>LSEG 称,总的来说,各公司报告的盈利比预期高出 4.4%,高于 1994 年以来(4.2% 的长期超预期率),但低于过去四个季度 7.3% 的超预期率。</p><p>目前预计第二季度增长 4.8%,如果剔除能源因素,这一预期不会改变。增长预期从上周五的 4.5% 上调。 </p><p>在预期变化方面,金融行业 的变化最大,该行业目前预计每股收益将增长 17.6%,而在 7 月 1 日财报开始前,(,预期为 8.8%)。不过,需要注意的是,金融行业大多在财报季初期公布业绩。 </p><p>不过,请抓紧时间,系好安全带,等待(8 月 2 日的下一份周报),因为在接下来的几天里,市场重量级企业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> 将于周二发布财报,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a> 将于周四发布财报。 </p><p>(Sinéad Carew)</p><p>***** </p><p>查看周五早些时候的实时市场文章:</p><p>个人投资者牛市暴跌,熊市暴涨 - Aaii - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>周五数据奥林匹克:PCE(几乎) 坚持着陆 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>美国股市上涨,因通胀数据指向降息 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>美股期货在 PCE 之后小幅收窄涨幅 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>不要称之为轮动 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>市场对不存在的经济衰退做出反应 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>盈利帮助欧洲指数 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>忙忙碌碌 - 点击此处 (link) </p><p>股市在疯狂一周后站稳脚跟 - 点击此处 (link) </p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DJX":"1/100道琼斯","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) 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ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","NVDA":"英伟达",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4220":"综合零售","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MSFT":"微软","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4538":"云计算","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2454373844","content_text":"((自动化翻译由路透提供,请见免责声明 )) * 美国股票指数反弹:道指涨幅居前,上涨 ~2 * 标准普尔 500 指数所有板块均上涨;工业板块涨幅居前,涨幅大于 2 * 美元走红;黄金上涨 ~1%;比特币上涨 >3%;原油下跌 >1 * 美国 10 年期国债收益率跌至 ~4.21 7月26日 - 欢迎来到路透记者为您带来的市场实时报道之家。您可以通过以下网址与我们分享您的想法 盈利预期攀升尽管本周不太引人注目的财报在市场上引起了不小的轰动 (link),但伦敦证交所的最新数据显示,随着财报季的深入,市场对标准普尔 500 指数 的预期逐步提高。 根据 LSEG 分析师 Tajinder Dhillon 的最新报告,在已经公布的 206 份报告中,华尔街对第二季度盈利增长的混合预期(,包括预期和实际报告),目前为同比增长 12.1%,如果不包括能源行业,则为同比增长 13%。 在上周五的报告(7 月 19 日) 中,混合预期为 11.1%,剔除能源行业后为 12.0%。LSEG 称,总的来说,各公司报告的盈利比预期高出 4.4%,高于 1994 年以来(4.2% 的长期超预期率),但低于过去四个季度 7.3% 的超预期率。目前预计第二季度增长 4.8%,如果剔除能源因素,这一预期不会改变。增长预期从上周五的 4.5% 上调。 在预期变化方面,金融行业 的变化最大,该行业目前预计每股收益将增长 17.6%,而在 7 月 1 日财报开始前,(,预期为 8.8%)。不过,需要注意的是,金融行业大多在财报季初期公布业绩。 不过,请抓紧时间,系好安全带,等待(8 月 2 日的下一份周报),因为在接下来的几天里,市场重量级企业微软 将于周二发布财报,苹果 和亚马逊 将于周四发布财报。 (Sinéad Carew)***** 查看周五早些时候的实时市场文章:个人投资者牛市暴跌,熊市暴涨 - Aaii - 点击此处 (link) 周五数据奥林匹克:PCE(几乎) 坚持着陆 - 点击此处 (link) 美国股市上涨,因通胀数据指向降息 - 点击此处 (link) 美股期货在 PCE 之后小幅收窄涨幅 - 点击此处 (link) 不要称之为轮动 - 点击此处 (link) 市场对不存在的经济衰退做出反应 - 点击此处 (link) 盈利帮助欧洲指数 - 点击此处 (link) 忙忙碌碌 - 点击此处 (link) 股市在疯狂一周后站稳脚跟 - 点击此处 (link)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331738568814808,"gmtCreate":1721997879013,"gmtModify":1721997880685,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331738568814808","repostId":"2454136357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2454136357","pubTimestamp":1721967059,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2454136357?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-26 12:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“华尔街神算子”:小型股或在8月上涨逾15%!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2454136357","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师预测,罗素2000指数反弹将持续大约10周,从8月开始,最终涨幅达到40%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>分析师预测,罗素2000指数反弹将持续大约10周,从8月开始,最终涨幅达到40%。</p></blockquote><p>随着科技板块的下跌,小型股正在接管夏季股票市场。</p><p>有“华尔街神算子”之称的Fundstrat联合创始人Tom Lee表示,如果历史可以作为参考的话,<strong>专注于小型股的罗素2000指数在8月份可能会增长15%或更多。</strong></p><p>罗素2000指数在整个7月已经实现了大幅增长,截至周四收盘,该指数本月已攀升超过10%。</p><p>Lee表示,<strong>市场对于即将来临的美联储降息(预计从9月开始)的信心正在推动小型股的反弹。</strong>这些公司有更多的债务负担,因此将从较低的借贷成本中受益最多。相反,持续的高利率被认为是近年来罗素2000指数表现不佳的原因之一。</p><p>Lee表示,同样值得注意的是小型股指数<strong>是逐步上升的,而不是急剧的、不可持续的增长。</strong>他指出,罗素2000指数在过去11个交易日中的10个交易日上涨了1%。</p><p>他说:“<strong>自1979年以来这种情况共出现九次,即使在熊市中,数月后我们都会看到100%的增长。</strong>这种情景出现后的12个月平均涨幅达到了40%。”</p><p>Lee此前预测,<strong>罗素2000指数反弹将持续大约10周,从8月开始,最终涨幅达到40%。</strong>现在他的预测更加具体,强调8月是一个涨幅特别显著的时期。</p><p>他表示:“在8月份,小型股可能会实现超过15%的增长,因为它们之前的表现相当落后。过去两周的走势表明,小型股可能正处于一次大幅上涨的开端。”</p><p>除了降息因素外,Lee还提到了即将到来的美国大选前景,这有助于推动罗素2000指数的上涨。</p><p>Lee指出,博彩市场显示特朗普有可能当选总统,投资者或因此被小型股吸引,<strong>因为特朗普的政策可能会促进放松监管、并购活动以及地区银行的发展。</strong></p><p>另一方面,随着人工智能热潮逐渐降温,<strong>Lee认为投资者正在转向大型股以外的投资</strong>,关注自由现金流或市盈率的投资者会发现小型股更具吸引力。</p><p>然而,并非所有人都赞同Lee的乐观看法。尽管罗素2000指数出现了飙升,华尔街的一些人士对这次反弹的持久性持怀疑态度,鉴于小型股的盈利、收入和利润率不佳。</p><p>此外,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>质疑美联储的潜在降息对小型股的影响,称从历史上看,小型股通常在货币政策首次宽松时表现不佳。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“华尔街神算子”:小型股或在8月上涨逾15%!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“华尔街神算子”:小型股或在8月上涨逾15%!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-26 12:10 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144307&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>分析师预测,罗素2000指数反弹将持续大约10周,从8月开始,最终涨幅达到40%。随着科技板块的下跌,小型股正在接管夏季股票市场。有“华尔街神算子”之称的Fundstrat联合创始人Tom Lee表示,如果历史可以作为参考的话,专注于小型股的罗素2000指数在8月份可能会增长15%或更多。罗素2000指数在整个7月已经实现了大幅增长,截至周四收盘,该指数本月已攀升超过10%。Lee表示,市场对于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144307&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953bd9ce1e43b5e313b0f4627cd9f067","relate_stocks":{"IWM":"罗素2000指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144307&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2454136357","content_text":"分析师预测,罗素2000指数反弹将持续大约10周,从8月开始,最终涨幅达到40%。随着科技板块的下跌,小型股正在接管夏季股票市场。有“华尔街神算子”之称的Fundstrat联合创始人Tom Lee表示,如果历史可以作为参考的话,专注于小型股的罗素2000指数在8月份可能会增长15%或更多。罗素2000指数在整个7月已经实现了大幅增长,截至周四收盘,该指数本月已攀升超过10%。Lee表示,市场对于即将来临的美联储降息(预计从9月开始)的信心正在推动小型股的反弹。这些公司有更多的债务负担,因此将从较低的借贷成本中受益最多。相反,持续的高利率被认为是近年来罗素2000指数表现不佳的原因之一。Lee表示,同样值得注意的是小型股指数是逐步上升的,而不是急剧的、不可持续的增长。他指出,罗素2000指数在过去11个交易日中的10个交易日上涨了1%。他说:“自1979年以来这种情况共出现九次,即使在熊市中,数月后我们都会看到100%的增长。这种情景出现后的12个月平均涨幅达到了40%。”Lee此前预测,罗素2000指数反弹将持续大约10周,从8月开始,最终涨幅达到40%。现在他的预测更加具体,强调8月是一个涨幅特别显著的时期。他表示:“在8月份,小型股可能会实现超过15%的增长,因为它们之前的表现相当落后。过去两周的走势表明,小型股可能正处于一次大幅上涨的开端。”除了降息因素外,Lee还提到了即将到来的美国大选前景,这有助于推动罗素2000指数的上涨。Lee指出,博彩市场显示特朗普有可能当选总统,投资者或因此被小型股吸引,因为特朗普的政策可能会促进放松监管、并购活动以及地区银行的发展。另一方面,随着人工智能热潮逐渐降温,Lee认为投资者正在转向大型股以外的投资,关注自由现金流或市盈率的投资者会发现小型股更具吸引力。然而,并非所有人都赞同Lee的乐观看法。尽管罗素2000指数出现了飙升,华尔街的一些人士对这次反弹的持久性持怀疑态度,鉴于小型股的盈利、收入和利润率不佳。此外,巴克莱银行质疑美联储的潜在降息对小型股的影响,称从历史上看,小型股通常在货币政策首次宽松时表现不佳。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331054524526672,"gmtCreate":1721830599816,"gmtModify":1721830601299,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331054524526672","repostId":"331025158947032","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331025158947032,"gmtCreate":1721823706682,"gmtModify":1721823745098,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"科技巨头加码AI,英伟达继续赢麻!","htmlText":"周二,谷歌、特斯拉两大科技巨头公布财报,其中,谷歌业绩超预期,而特斯拉却推迟了Robotaxi,导致股价大跌! 谷歌的业绩也有瑕疵,比如Youtube广告收入未达预期。 财报公布后,两大巨头的股价出现明显下跌。 关于财报,已经有很多分析内容,这里不再赘述,今天来聊聊通过谷歌和特斯拉的财报,我们能捕捉到怎样的AI趋势? 先来看谷歌,今年二季度,谷歌的资本支出达到了132亿美元,创历史记录,同比暴增91%! 巨额资本开支主要用于AI投资,有分析认为,当前的AI技术还处于早期阶段,尚未看到大规模的应用场景,有投资者担忧过高的投入是否会造成投资损失。 谷歌CEO Sundar Pichai认为,当前AI确实处于早期阶段,但如果不积极投资,谷歌很难承担投资不足带来的风险。 而且,他认为AI基础设施有很长的生命周期,潜台词是不用担心浪费! 特斯拉对AI 的投入更直观且猛烈,在二季报中,公司计划在今年年底将AI训练能力较当前至少提升2倍! 由此来看,科技巨头的AI竞赛尚未结束,英伟达或继续赢麻了! <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>","listText":"周二,谷歌、特斯拉两大科技巨头公布财报,其中,谷歌业绩超预期,而特斯拉却推迟了Robotaxi,导致股价大跌! 谷歌的业绩也有瑕疵,比如Youtube广告收入未达预期。 财报公布后,两大巨头的股价出现明显下跌。 关于财报,已经有很多分析内容,这里不再赘述,今天来聊聊通过谷歌和特斯拉的财报,我们能捕捉到怎样的AI趋势? 先来看谷歌,今年二季度,谷歌的资本支出达到了132亿美元,创历史记录,同比暴增91%! 巨额资本开支主要用于AI投资,有分析认为,当前的AI技术还处于早期阶段,尚未看到大规模的应用场景,有投资者担忧过高的投入是否会造成投资损失。 谷歌CEO Sundar Pichai认为,当前AI确实处于早期阶段,但如果不积极投资,谷歌很难承担投资不足带来的风险。 而且,他认为AI基础设施有很长的生命周期,潜台词是不用担心浪费! 特斯拉对AI 的投入更直观且猛烈,在二季报中,公司计划在今年年底将AI训练能力较当前至少提升2倍! 由此来看,科技巨头的AI竞赛尚未结束,英伟达或继续赢麻了! <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>","text":"周二,谷歌、特斯拉两大科技巨头公布财报,其中,谷歌业绩超预期,而特斯拉却推迟了Robotaxi,导致股价大跌! 谷歌的业绩也有瑕疵,比如Youtube广告收入未达预期。 财报公布后,两大巨头的股价出现明显下跌。 关于财报,已经有很多分析内容,这里不再赘述,今天来聊聊通过谷歌和特斯拉的财报,我们能捕捉到怎样的AI趋势? 先来看谷歌,今年二季度,谷歌的资本支出达到了132亿美元,创历史记录,同比暴增91%! 巨额资本开支主要用于AI投资,有分析认为,当前的AI技术还处于早期阶段,尚未看到大规模的应用场景,有投资者担忧过高的投入是否会造成投资损失。 谷歌CEO Sundar Pichai认为,当前AI确实处于早期阶段,但如果不积极投资,谷歌很难承担投资不足带来的风险。 而且,他认为AI基础设施有很长的生命周期,潜台词是不用担心浪费! 特斯拉对AI 的投入更直观且猛烈,在二季报中,公司计划在今年年底将AI训练能力较当前至少提升2倍! 由此来看,科技巨头的AI竞赛尚未结束,英伟达或继续赢麻了! $谷歌(GOOG)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad6bd6015c718864da844c831889f2df","width":"1345","height":"598"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331025158947032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331041325273176,"gmtCreate":1721827529228,"gmtModify":1721827531083,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nvdi","listText":"Nvdi","text":"Nvdi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331041325273176","repostId":"2453002295","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2453002295","pubTimestamp":1721808000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2453002295?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-24 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Leverage Shares unveils Europe’s first single stock covered call ETPs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453002295","media":"ETF stream","summary":"Leverage Shares has launched Europe’s first exchange-traded products (ETPs) offering covered calls on single securities.The firm listed a trio of ETPs on the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday:IncomeSha","content":"<html><body><article><p>Leverage Shares has launched Europe’s first exchange-traded products (ETPs) offering covered calls on single securities.</p><p>The firm listed a trio of ETPs on the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday:</p><ul><li><p>IncomeShares NVIDIA (NVDA) Options ETP (NVDI)</p></li><li><p>IncomeShares Tesla (TSLA) Options ETP (TSLI)</p></li><li><p>IncomeShares Gold+ Yield ETP (GLDE)</p></li></ul><p>The two single stock ETPs carry total expense ratios (TERs) of 0.55%, while the gold ETP carries a TER of 0.35%.</p><p>NVDI and TSLI directly purchase physical shares of their underlying, while GLDE buys shares of SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to gain physical exposure to gold. Leverage Shares then sells weekly call options with strike prices 3-5% out-of-the-money.</p><p>This limits an investor’s potential upside return but provides a consistent monthly premium which mitigates some downside risk if the price of the underlying falls.</p><p>Oktay Kavrak, director of strategy and communications at Leverage Shares, commented: \"Structured products are a European specialty, yet the US has overtaken us in the widespread adoption of such strategies and the ETF wrapper played a crucial role in this shift.</p><p>“We want to bring that same access to options strategies for investors across Europe and the UK.”</p><p>Leverage Shares noted it plans to add to its covered call IncomeShares ETP range “in the coming months”.</p><p>The new launches come after the firm unveiled an eight-strong range of ETPs offering short and leveraged exposure to the ‘magnificent seven’, semiconductor and AI stocks in April.</p></article></body></html>","source":"etfstream_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Leverage Shares unveils Europe’s first single stock covered call ETPs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\nLeverage Shares unveils Europe’s first single stock covered call ETPs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-24 16:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.etfstream.com/articles/leverage-shares-unveils-europe-s-first-single-stock-covered-call-etps><strong>ETF stream</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Leverage Shares has launched Europe’s first exchange-traded products (ETPs) offering covered calls on single securities.The firm listed a trio of ETPs on the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday:...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.etfstream.com/articles/leverage-shares-unveils-europe-s-first-single-stock-covered-call-etps\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com///images.ctfassets.net/lr0atmu04u9z/2mXvINF9Dh1dTGLQeI41Ax/d7b8ec005d464be49c7fad98045365d3/Nvidia_office_large.jpg?op=imageView2&mode=2&width=256&height=256&quality=70&format=png","relate_stocks":{"LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) 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ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.etfstream.com/articles/leverage-shares-unveils-europe-s-first-single-stock-covered-call-etps","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453002295","content_text":"Leverage Shares has launched Europe’s first exchange-traded products (ETPs) offering covered calls on single securities.The firm listed a trio of ETPs on the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday:IncomeShares NVIDIA (NVDA) Options ETP (NVDI)IncomeShares Tesla (TSLA) Options ETP (TSLI)IncomeShares Gold+ Yield ETP (GLDE)The two single stock ETPs carry total expense ratios (TERs) of 0.55%, while the gold ETP carries a TER of 0.35%.NVDI and TSLI directly purchase physical shares of their underlying, while GLDE buys shares of SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to gain physical exposure to gold. Leverage Shares then sells weekly call options with strike prices 3-5% out-of-the-money.This limits an investor’s potential upside return but provides a consistent monthly premium which mitigates some downside risk if the price of the underlying falls.Oktay Kavrak, director of strategy and communications at Leverage Shares, commented: \"Structured products are a European specialty, yet the US has overtaken us in the widespread adoption of such strategies and the ETF wrapper played a crucial role in this shift.“We want to bring that same access to options strategies for investors across Europe and the UK.”Leverage Shares noted it plans to add to its covered call IncomeShares ETP range “in the coming months”.The new launches come after the firm unveiled an eight-strong range of ETPs offering short and leveraged exposure to the ‘magnificent seven’, semiconductor and AI stocks in April.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330774222155968,"gmtCreate":1721786386698,"gmtModify":1721786388559,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330774222155968","repostId":"2453018656","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2453018656","pubTimestamp":1721780018,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2453018656?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-24 08:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"谷歌电话会四大要点:AI“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453018656","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"谷歌预计,2024财年营业利润率将高于去年,但第三季度可能受折旧和高支出影响而落后。","content":"<html><body><p>周二美股盘后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet发布超预期业绩,其中云服务和搜索业务表现强劲,AI助攻Q2云收入首超百亿美元。</p>\n<p>随后谷歌召开财报电话会,公司高管向投资者更新了公司在AI投资、未来展望等方面的最新情况。以下是电话会要点:</p>\n<h2>1、AI“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险</h2>\n<p>电话会上,谷歌首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊强调,对于Alphabet而言,在AI领域投资不足的风险远远大于过度投资的风险。</p>\n<p>他指出,即使出现过度投资的情况,当前用于数据中心等基础设施的投资也可以用于其他任务,而不在AI竞赛中保持领先地位将对公司造成更为严重的负面影响。</p>\n<h2>2、AI驱动的搜索改进提高搜索使用率和用户满意度</h2>\n<p>谷歌表示,公司推出的AI概览工具取得了积极成效,该工具能在搜索页面顶部总结内容,提升了搜索使用率和用户满意度,尤其吸引了更多年轻用户。皮查伊表示,AI不仅扩展了谷歌能够处理的查询类型,还为搜索开辟了强大的新方式。</p>\n<h2>3、AI产品助攻云业务增长</h2>\n<p>生成式AI产品为谷歌云业务增添了新的增长动力。谷歌首席财务官露丝·波拉特表示,谷歌云百强客户中的大多数都在使用Alphabet的生成式AI解决方案。第二季度谷歌云业务利润率有所提升,反映出该部门的收入实力和公司的效率提升。</p>\n<h2>4、2024财年营业利润率将高于去年,但第三季度可能会落后</h2>\n<p>首席财务官露丝·波拉特表示,预计公司2024财年全年营业利润率将高于2023年,但第三季度可能受到折旧和更高支出的负面影响,部分原因是AI投资增加,此外新一代Pixel手机的发布也将推高支出。</p>\n<p>波拉特还透露,第二季度资本支出达130亿美元,预计2024年剩余时间每季度支出将维持在120亿美元左右。</p>\n<p>在财报电话会议后,Alphabet股价在美股盘后交易中跌超2%,截至目前报183.6美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/e203950b-b2f1-422a-967b-f959d24d4177.png\"/></p><div>风险提示及免责条款</div>\n<div>\n 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。\n </div>\n</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌电话会四大要点:AI“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌电话会四大要点:AI“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-24 08:13 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3720713><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周二美股盘后,谷歌母公司Alphabet发布超预期业绩,其中云服务和搜索业务表现强劲,AI助攻Q2云收入首超百亿美元。\n随后谷歌召开财报电话会,公司高管向投资者更新了公司在AI投资、未来展望等方面的最新情况。以下是电话会要点:\n1、AI“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险\n电话会上,谷歌首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊强调,对于Alphabet而言,在AI领域投资不足的风险远远大于过度投资的风险。\n他...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3720713\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3d27c5b1-ed01-4b81-a545-f0964909c839.png","relate_stocks":{"LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0130518102.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"R\" INC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0203202063.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A2X\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A 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ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3720713","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453018656","content_text":"周二美股盘后,谷歌母公司Alphabet发布超预期业绩,其中云服务和搜索业务表现强劲,AI助攻Q2云收入首超百亿美元。\n随后谷歌召开财报电话会,公司高管向投资者更新了公司在AI投资、未来展望等方面的最新情况。以下是电话会要点:\n1、AI“投资不足”风险远大于“过度投资”风险\n电话会上,谷歌首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊强调,对于Alphabet而言,在AI领域投资不足的风险远远大于过度投资的风险。\n他指出,即使出现过度投资的情况,当前用于数据中心等基础设施的投资也可以用于其他任务,而不在AI竞赛中保持领先地位将对公司造成更为严重的负面影响。\n2、AI驱动的搜索改进提高搜索使用率和用户满意度\n谷歌表示,公司推出的AI概览工具取得了积极成效,该工具能在搜索页面顶部总结内容,提升了搜索使用率和用户满意度,尤其吸引了更多年轻用户。皮查伊表示,AI不仅扩展了谷歌能够处理的查询类型,还为搜索开辟了强大的新方式。\n3、AI产品助攻云业务增长\n生成式AI产品为谷歌云业务增添了新的增长动力。谷歌首席财务官露丝·波拉特表示,谷歌云百强客户中的大多数都在使用Alphabet的生成式AI解决方案。第二季度谷歌云业务利润率有所提升,反映出该部门的收入实力和公司的效率提升。\n4、2024财年营业利润率将高于去年,但第三季度可能会落后\n首席财务官露丝·波拉特表示,预计公司2024财年全年营业利润率将高于2023年,但第三季度可能受到折旧和更高支出的负面影响,部分原因是AI投资增加,此外新一代Pixel手机的发布也将推高支出。\n波拉特还透露,第二季度资本支出达130亿美元,预计2024年剩余时间每季度支出将维持在120亿美元左右。\n在财报电话会议后,Alphabet股价在美股盘后交易中跌超2%,截至目前报183.6美元。\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328769877967016,"gmtCreate":1721281976326,"gmtModify":1721281982619,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最起码还要疯长三个季度,下跌就是大机会","listText":"最起码还要疯长三个季度,下跌就是大机会","text":"最起码还要疯长三个季度,下跌就是大机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328769877967016","repostId":"1190782277","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190782277","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1721280649,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190782277?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-18 13:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电Q2营收6735.1亿新台币,同比增长40.1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190782277","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"台积电第二季度净利润2478亿元台币,预估2350亿元台币。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月18日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>发布2024年第二季度业绩。财报显示,第二季度营收6735.1亿新台币,市场预期6581.4亿新台币,去年同期4808.41亿新台币;净利润2478.45亿新台币,市场预期2350亿新台币,去年同期1818亿新台币;每股收益9.56新台币,去年同期7.01新台币。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本季度毛利率为53.2%,营业利润率为42.5%,净利润率为36.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第二季度,3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的15%;5纳米占35%;7纳米占17%。先进技术(定义为7纳米及更先进的技术)占晶圆总收入的67%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39188bac1f747c7d3e6cf1e2fb6aece\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"538\"/></p><p><strong>财报电话会:</strong></p><p>台积电在随后的电话会议上表示:</p><blockquote><p>预计第三季度营收为224-232亿美元(上年同期为173亿美元);</p><p>预计第三季度毛利率为53.5-55.5%(第二季度为53.2%);</p><p>预计第三季度营运利润率为42.5-44.5%(第二季度为42.5%);</p><p>预计第三季度业务将受到强劲的智能手机和人工智能相关需求的支持;</p><p>预计全年资本支出300亿美元至320亿美元,此前预计280-320亿美元,市场预估295.5亿美元;</p><p>2024年以美元计价收入增幅将略高于25%左右(此前预测增幅在20—25%左右);</p><p>预计2024年芯片代工业务将增长接近10%;</p><p>预计2024年将是台积电的一个强劲增长年。</p></blockquote><p>财报发布后,台积电美股夜盘涨幅扩大至4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d8bd199ce7733d3cea9e61e82b545\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"825\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电Q2营收6735.1亿新台币,同比增长40.1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电Q2营收6735.1亿新台币,同比增长40.1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-18 13:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月18日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>发布2024年第二季度业绩。财报显示,第二季度营收6735.1亿新台币,市场预期6581.4亿新台币,去年同期4808.41亿新台币;净利润2478.45亿新台币,市场预期2350亿新台币,去年同期1818亿新台币;每股收益9.56新台币,去年同期7.01新台币。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本季度毛利率为53.2%,营业利润率为42.5%,净利润率为36.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第二季度,3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的15%;5纳米占35%;7纳米占17%。先进技术(定义为7纳米及更先进的技术)占晶圆总收入的67%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39188bac1f747c7d3e6cf1e2fb6aece\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"538\"/></p><p><strong>财报电话会:</strong></p><p>台积电在随后的电话会议上表示:</p><blockquote><p>预计第三季度营收为224-232亿美元(上年同期为173亿美元);</p><p>预计第三季度毛利率为53.5-55.5%(第二季度为53.2%);</p><p>预计第三季度营运利润率为42.5-44.5%(第二季度为42.5%);</p><p>预计第三季度业务将受到强劲的智能手机和人工智能相关需求的支持;</p><p>预计全年资本支出300亿美元至320亿美元,此前预计280-320亿美元,市场预估295.5亿美元;</p><p>2024年以美元计价收入增幅将略高于25%左右(此前预测增幅在20—25%左右);</p><p>预计2024年芯片代工业务将增长接近10%;</p><p>预计2024年将是台积电的一个强劲增长年。</p></blockquote><p>财报发布后,台积电美股夜盘涨幅扩大至4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d8bd199ce7733d3cea9e61e82b545\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"825\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab46ee73bd1bbc4ed7da6a69f14e5d5","relate_stocks":{"03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU2491050071.SGD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0264606111.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 USD","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2491050154.USD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","TSM":"台积电","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190782277","content_text":"7月18日,台积电发布2024年第二季度业绩。财报显示,第二季度营收6735.1亿新台币,市场预期6581.4亿新台币,去年同期4808.41亿新台币;净利润2478.45亿新台币,市场预期2350亿新台币,去年同期1818亿新台币;每股收益9.56新台币,去年同期7.01新台币。本季度毛利率为53.2%,营业利润率为42.5%,净利润率为36.8%。第二季度,3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的15%;5纳米占35%;7纳米占17%。先进技术(定义为7纳米及更先进的技术)占晶圆总收入的67%。财报电话会:台积电在随后的电话会议上表示:预计第三季度营收为224-232亿美元(上年同期为173亿美元);预计第三季度毛利率为53.5-55.5%(第二季度为53.2%);预计第三季度营运利润率为42.5-44.5%(第二季度为42.5%);预计第三季度业务将受到强劲的智能手机和人工智能相关需求的支持;预计全年资本支出300亿美元至320亿美元,此前预计280-320亿美元,市场预估295.5亿美元;2024年以美元计价收入增幅将略高于25%左右(此前预测增幅在20—25%左右);预计2024年芯片代工业务将增长接近10%;预计2024年将是台积电的一个强劲增长年。财报发布后,台积电美股夜盘涨幅扩大至4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327721231958048,"gmtCreate":1721021036197,"gmtModify":1721021037748,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327721231958048","repostId":"1169200078","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169200078","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1721004894,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169200078?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-15 08:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"报道:因Blackwell需求强劲,英伟达将其与台积电的晶圆订单量增加了25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169200078","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月15日,据台湾经济日报,英伟达Blackwell架构GPU被誉为「地表最强AI芯片」,配备2,080亿个电晶体,采用台积电客制化4纳米制程制造,两倍光罩尺寸GPU裸晶通过每秒10TB的芯片到芯片互连连接成单个、统一GPU,且支援AI训练和即时大型语言模型推理,模型可扩展至10兆个参数。业界人士透露,亚马逊、戴尔、Google、Meta、微软等国际大厂都将导入英伟达Blackwell架构GPU打造AI服务器,量能超乎预期,为此,英伟达调高对台积电下单量约25%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月15日,据台湾经济日报,业界人士透露,亚马逊、戴尔、Google、Meta、微软等国际大厂都将导入英伟达Blackwell架构GPU打造AI服务器,量能超乎预期,为此,英伟达调高对台积电下单量约25%。</p><p>分析师预估,以Blackwell架构打造的英伟达B100 GPU平均售价(ASP)为3万美元至3.5万美元,串联Grace CPU与B200 GPU的超级芯片GB200售价则介于6万美元至7万美元甚至更高,也就是说,英伟达相关芯片是台积电历来打造终端售价最贵的芯片。</p><p>英伟达Blackwell架构GPU被誉为「地表最强AI芯片」,配备2,080亿个电晶体,采用台积电客制化4纳米制程制造,两倍光罩尺寸GPU裸晶通过每秒10TB的芯片到芯片互连连接成单个、统一GPU,且支援AI训练和即时大型语言模型推理,模型可扩展至10兆个参数。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>报道:因Blackwell需求强劲,英伟达将其与台积电的晶圆订单量增加了25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n报道:因Blackwell需求强劲,英伟达将其与台积电的晶圆订单量增加了25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-15 08:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月15日,据台湾经济日报,业界人士透露,亚马逊、戴尔、Google、Meta、微软等国际大厂都将导入英伟达Blackwell架构GPU打造AI服务器,量能超乎预期,为此,英伟达调高对台积电下单量约25%。</p><p>分析师预估,以Blackwell架构打造的英伟达B100 GPU平均售价(ASP)为3万美元至3.5万美元,串联Grace CPU与B200 GPU的超级芯片GB200售价则介于6万美元至7万美元甚至更高,也就是说,英伟达相关芯片是台积电历来打造终端售价最贵的芯片。</p><p>英伟达Blackwell架构GPU被誉为「地表最强AI芯片」,配备2,080亿个电晶体,采用台积电客制化4纳米制程制造,两倍光罩尺寸GPU裸晶通过每秒10TB的芯片到芯片互连连接成单个、统一GPU,且支援AI训练和即时大型语言模型推理,模型可扩展至10兆个参数。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169200078","content_text":"7月15日,据台湾经济日报,业界人士透露,亚马逊、戴尔、Google、Meta、微软等国际大厂都将导入英伟达Blackwell架构GPU打造AI服务器,量能超乎预期,为此,英伟达调高对台积电下单量约25%。分析师预估,以Blackwell架构打造的英伟达B100 GPU平均售价(ASP)为3万美元至3.5万美元,串联Grace CPU与B200 GPU的超级芯片GB200售价则介于6万美元至7万美元甚至更高,也就是说,英伟达相关芯片是台积电历来打造终端售价最贵的芯片。英伟达Blackwell架构GPU被誉为「地表最强AI芯片」,配备2,080亿个电晶体,采用台积电客制化4纳米制程制造,两倍光罩尺寸GPU裸晶通过每秒10TB的芯片到芯片互连连接成单个、统一GPU,且支援AI训练和即时大型语言模型推理,模型可扩展至10兆个参数。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326694971281416,"gmtCreate":1720761209660,"gmtModify":1720761211617,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"算的很好,看到220,泡沫化300","listText":"算的很好,看到220,泡沫化300","text":"算的很好,看到220,泡沫化300","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326694971281416","repostId":"326409579991264","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":326409579991264,"gmtCreate":1720691441611,"gmtModify":1720693020813,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48978458c14aa1ff705298ea37d3811","width":"600","height":"335"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326409579991264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325925091246176,"gmtCreate":1720573070193,"gmtModify":1720573072559,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"本周,更多迹象表明大量资金流入人工智能基础设施,私营数据中心运营商CyrusOne周一表示,已获得79亿美元的信贷额度,为美国现有和未来的开发项目提供资金。","listText":"本周,更多迹象表明大量资金流入人工智能基础设施,私营数据中心运营商CyrusOne周一表示,已获得79亿美元的信贷额度,为美国现有和未来的开发项目提供资金。","text":"本周,更多迹象表明大量资金流入人工智能基础设施,私营数据中心运营商CyrusOne周一表示,已获得79亿美元的信贷额度,为美国现有和未来的开发项目提供资金。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325925091246176","repostId":"2450844011","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2450844011","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1720536216,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2450844011?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-09 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Gains After Another Analyst Raises Price Target. How High It Could Go","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2450844011","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia was rising Tuesday as chip stocks looked set for another positive day. There are further signs of huge spending on infrastructure to support artificial-intelligence technology.Nvidia shares were up 0.9% at $129.40 in premarket trading. The stock rose 1.9% on Monday.After a brief fall into correction territory late last month, Nvidia looks to be heading up again and threatening its record closing high of $135.58, once adjusted for its recent 10-for-1 stock split. Related stocks are also on a roll as chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing hit a record high on Monday.Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was up 0.6% and Intel was rising 3.9% in premarket trading. Server maker Super Micro Computer gained 0.7%.CyrusOne's data centers house its customers' equipment, so it isn't a direct customer of Nvidia. However, it's another sign of the expectations that AI will continue to grow, boosting demand for chips and data center sites. In North America, data center ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia stock was rising Tuesday as chip stocks looked set for another positive day. Bullish analysts and further signs of huge spending on infrastructure to support artificial-intelligence technology are likely helping shares move higher.</p><p>Nvidia shares were up 3.7% at $132.89 in morning trading. The stock rose 1.9% on Monday. </p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ac0dbc54d46e1070db56975f0a93f61\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>After a brief fall into correction territory late last month, Nvidia looks to be heading up again and threatening its record closing high of $135.58, once adjusted for its recent 10-for-1 stock split.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia got another boost from Wall Street as KeyBanc analyst John Vinh raised his target price on the stock to $180 from $130, while keeping an Overweight rating on the stock. The new target is 33% higher than the stock’s recent price. Vinh was the seventh analyst to raise Nvidia’s target in July, according to FactSet, though the average price target remains at $130.92, below where Nvidia is currently trading. Expect more target increases in the future.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Related stocks are also on a roll as chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing hit arecord highon Monday. </p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 0.8% and Intel was rising 0.4% in morning trading. Server makerSuper Micro Computer gained 3.0%. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More signs of the huge amounts of money flowing into AI infrastructure came this week when privately held data center operator CyrusOne said Monday that it had secured a $7.9 billion line of credit to fund existing and future development projects in the U.S.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">CyrusOne’s data centers house its customers’ equipment, so it isn’t a direct customer of Nvidia. However, it’s another sign of the expectations that AI will continue to grow, boosting demand for chips and data center sites. In North America, data center inventory grew by 24% during the first three months of 2024 from the same period a year earlier, according to commercial real estate company CBRE.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Gains After Another Analyst Raises Price Target. How High It Could Go</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Gains After Another Analyst Raises Price Target. How High It Could Go\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-09 22:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia stock was rising Tuesday as chip stocks looked set for another positive day. Bullish analysts and further signs of huge spending on infrastructure to support artificial-intelligence technology are likely helping shares move higher.</p><p>Nvidia shares were up 3.7% at $132.89 in morning trading. The stock rose 1.9% on Monday. </p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ac0dbc54d46e1070db56975f0a93f61\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>After a brief fall into correction territory late last month, Nvidia looks to be heading up again and threatening its record closing high of $135.58, once adjusted for its recent 10-for-1 stock split.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia got another boost from Wall Street as KeyBanc analyst John Vinh raised his target price on the stock to $180 from $130, while keeping an Overweight rating on the stock. The new target is 33% higher than the stock’s recent price. Vinh was the seventh analyst to raise Nvidia’s target in July, according to FactSet, though the average price target remains at $130.92, below where Nvidia is currently trading. Expect more target increases in the future.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Related stocks are also on a roll as chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing hit arecord highon Monday. </p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 0.8% and Intel was rising 0.4% in morning trading. Server makerSuper Micro Computer gained 3.0%. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More signs of the huge amounts of money flowing into AI infrastructure came this week when privately held data center operator CyrusOne said Monday that it had secured a $7.9 billion line of credit to fund existing and future development projects in the U.S.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">CyrusOne’s data centers house its customers’ equipment, so it isn’t a direct customer of Nvidia. However, it’s another sign of the expectations that AI will continue to grow, boosting demand for chips and data center sites. In North America, data center inventory grew by 24% during the first three months of 2024 from the same period a year earlier, according to commercial real estate company CBRE.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","AMD":"美国超微公司","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","INTC":"英特尔","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2450844011","content_text":"Nvidia stock was rising Tuesday as chip stocks looked set for another positive day. Bullish analysts and further signs of huge spending on infrastructure to support artificial-intelligence technology are likely helping shares move higher.Nvidia shares were up 3.7% at $132.89 in morning trading. The stock rose 1.9% on Monday. After a brief fall into correction territory late last month, Nvidia looks to be heading up again and threatening its record closing high of $135.58, once adjusted for its recent 10-for-1 stock split.Nvidia got another boost from Wall Street as KeyBanc analyst John Vinh raised his target price on the stock to $180 from $130, while keeping an Overweight rating on the stock. The new target is 33% higher than the stock’s recent price. Vinh was the seventh analyst to raise Nvidia’s target in July, according to FactSet, though the average price target remains at $130.92, below where Nvidia is currently trading. Expect more target increases in the future.Related stocks are also on a roll as chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing hit arecord highon Monday. Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 0.8% and Intel was rising 0.4% in morning trading. Server makerSuper Micro Computer gained 3.0%. More signs of the huge amounts of money flowing into AI infrastructure came this week when privately held data center operator CyrusOne said Monday that it had secured a $7.9 billion line of credit to fund existing and future development projects in the U.S.CyrusOne’s data centers house its customers’ equipment, so it isn’t a direct customer of Nvidia. However, it’s another sign of the expectations that AI will continue to grow, boosting demand for chips and data center sites. In North America, data center inventory grew by 24% during the first three months of 2024 from the same period a year earlier, according to commercial real estate company CBRE.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324613784952920,"gmtCreate":1720280466923,"gmtModify":1720280469624,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1.投机 2.信用的扩张 3.欺诈 4.投资者认为该资产的价格永远不会再下跌","listText":"1.投机 2.信用的扩张 3.欺诈 4.投资者认为该资产的价格永远不会再下跌","text":"1.投机 2.信用的扩张 3.欺诈 4.投资者认为该资产的价格永远不会再下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324613784952920","repostId":"2449246255","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2449246255","pubTimestamp":1720218600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2449246255?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-06 06:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is NVIDIA in a Bubble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2449246255","media":"Zacks","summary":"(0:30 - Should You Be Buying NVDIA For Your Portfolio Right Now? - Breaking Down NVDIA’s Stock Performance: Will The Price Continue To Rise?This week, she went solo to take another look at NVIDIA . Since she last covered NVIDIA on the podcast in the spring of 2024, the stock has continued to rally and hit another round of new all-time highs.Is this just a bull rally or is the stock now in a bubble?Tracey might also add the “barbecue test.” Is she being asked about a certain stock at summer barbeques by people who have never bought stocks before?NVIDIA’s fundamentals may be looking stretched but the company is still executing. Analysts are looking for earnings growth of 106% in Fiscal 2025 and another 25.7% in Fiscal 2026. And NVIDIA is still a Zacks Rank #1 as analysts have been raising estimates over the last 30 days.So, is NVIDIA in a bubble, or not?","content":"<html><body>\n<ul>\n<li>(0:30 - Should You Be Buying NVDIA For Your Portfolio Right Now?</li>\n<li>(5:15) - Breaking Down NVDIA’s Stock Performance: Will The Price Continue To Rise?</li>\n<li>(18:30) - Episode Roundup: NVDA, BKNG, CMG</li>\n<li> Podcast@Zacks.com</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Welcome to Episode #407 of the Zacks Market Edge Podcast.</p>\n<p>Every week, host and Zacks stock strategist, Tracey Ryniec, will be joined by guests to discuss the hottest investing topics in stocks, bonds, and ETFs and how it impacts your life.</p>\n<p>This week, she went solo to take another look at <strong>NVIDIA (</strong>NVDA<strong>)</strong>. Since she last covered NVIDIA on the podcast in the spring of 2024, the stock has continued to rally and hit another round of new all-time highs.</p>\n<p>Is this just a bull rally or is the stock now in a bubble?</p>\n<p><strong>Criteria of a Bubble</strong></p>\n<p>An asset bubble is not defined just the price of that asset rising and/or hitting new highs. If it were, we’d have bubbles every day. There are other criteria that need to be present for it to be considered a bubble. Those can include:</p>\n<p>1. Speculation</p>\n<p>2. Expansion of credit</p>\n<p>3. Fraud</p>\n<p>4. The belief, by investors, that the price of that asset will never fall again</p>\n<p>Tracey might also add the “barbecue test.” Is she being asked about a certain stock at summer barbeques by people who have never bought stocks before?</p>\n<p><strong>NVIDIA’s Fundamentals: Bull or Bubble?</strong></p>\n<p>NVIDIA’s fundamentals may be looking stretched but the company is still executing. Analysts are looking for earnings growth of 106% in Fiscal 2025 and another 25.7% in Fiscal 2026. And NVIDIA is still a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) as analysts have been raising estimates over the last 30 days.</p>\n<p>While NVIDIA’s forward P/E is 47.8, which obviously isn’t cheap, it has a PEG ratio of just 1.3. A PEG ratio under 1.0 indicates a company has both growth and value. A PEG ratio of 1.3 is still attractive.</p>\n<p>Shares of NVIDIA have soared 154% year-to-date.</p>\n<p>So, is NVIDIA in a bubble, or not?</p>\n<p>Find out the answer in this week’s video podcast.</p>\n<p>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report</p>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report</p>\n<p>To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</p>\n<p>Zacks Investment Research</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is NVIDIA in a Bubble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs NVIDIA in a Bubble?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-06 06:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-bubble-223000337.html><strong>Zacks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(0:30 - Should You Be Buying NVDIA For Your Portfolio Right Now?\n(5:15) - Breaking Down NVDIA’s Stock Performance: Will The Price Continue To Rise?\n(18:30) - Episode Roundup: NVDA, BKNG, CMG\n ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-bubble-223000337.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/pXM1demKWkcUam5GodRDIw--~B/aD00MDA7dz02MzU7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/zacks.com/cbfcc2d36e5d5391b79e00de30b0354f","relate_stocks":{"IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-bubble-223000337.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2449246255","content_text":"(0:30 - Should You Be Buying NVDIA For Your Portfolio Right Now?\n(5:15) - Breaking Down NVDIA’s Stock Performance: Will The Price Continue To Rise?\n(18:30) - Episode Roundup: NVDA, BKNG, CMG\n Podcast@Zacks.com\n\nWelcome to Episode #407 of the Zacks Market Edge Podcast.\nEvery week, host and Zacks stock strategist, Tracey Ryniec, will be joined by guests to discuss the hottest investing topics in stocks, bonds, and ETFs and how it impacts your life.\nThis week, she went solo to take another look at NVIDIA (NVDA). Since she last covered NVIDIA on the podcast in the spring of 2024, the stock has continued to rally and hit another round of new all-time highs.\nIs this just a bull rally or is the stock now in a bubble?\nCriteria of a Bubble\nAn asset bubble is not defined just the price of that asset rising and/or hitting new highs. If it were, we’d have bubbles every day. There are other criteria that need to be present for it to be considered a bubble. Those can include:\n1. Speculation\n2. Expansion of credit\n3. Fraud\n4. The belief, by investors, that the price of that asset will never fall again\nTracey might also add the “barbecue test.” Is she being asked about a certain stock at summer barbeques by people who have never bought stocks before?\nNVIDIA’s Fundamentals: Bull or Bubble?\nNVIDIA’s fundamentals may be looking stretched but the company is still executing. Analysts are looking for earnings growth of 106% in Fiscal 2025 and another 25.7% in Fiscal 2026. And NVIDIA is still a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) as analysts have been raising estimates over the last 30 days.\nWhile NVIDIA’s forward P/E is 47.8, which obviously isn’t cheap, it has a PEG ratio of just 1.3. A PEG ratio under 1.0 indicates a company has both growth and value. A PEG ratio of 1.3 is still attractive.\nShares of NVIDIA have soared 154% year-to-date.\nSo, is NVIDIA in a bubble, or not?\nFind out the answer in this week’s video podcast.\nWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report\nNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report\nTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.\nZacks Investment Research","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324612073132280,"gmtCreate":1720280196361,"gmtModify":1720280198461,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324612073132280","repostId":"2449424689","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2449424689","pubTimestamp":1720221468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2449424689?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-06 07:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"软银正计划借款100亿美元采购大量英伟达芯片","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2449424689","media":"鞭牛士Bianews","summary":"据 The Information 周四报道,这一最新举措似乎是软银首席执行官孙正义更广泛计划的一部分,该计划旨在将软银定位为人工智能技术领域的领导者,为此,软银已开始与银行讨论借款事宜,为受人工智能需求推动的能源相关项目提供高达 100 亿美元的资金。相反,他把所有的希望都寄托在软银于 2016 年收购的英国芯片设计公司 Arm 身上。","content":"<html><body><p>鞭牛士报道,7月5日消息,据外电报道,专注于技术的日本投资者软银正在讨论寻找一种方法来确保大量<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的图形处理单元 (GPU),这对于人工智能 (AI) 开发至关重要。</p><p>据 The Information 周四报道,这一最新举措似乎是软银首席执行官孙正义更广泛计划的一部分,该计划旨在将软银定位为人工智能技术领域的领导者,为此,软银已开始与银行讨论借款事宜,为受人工智能需求推动的能源相关项目提供高达 100 亿美元的资金。</p><p>软银是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、T Mobile、10x Genomics(纳斯达克股票代码: TXG )和 Automation Anywhere 等公司的支持者,它可能会考虑创建一家特殊目的公司,用借来的资金购买 GPU,然后将 GPU 租赁给软银,从而使该公司无需承担资产负债表上的债务。</p><p>正在进行的讨论表明软银有意增加其在人工智能基础设施方面的投资。其计划获得 Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ) GPU,这表明这些芯片在推进人工智能技术方面的重要性日益增加,尤其是在处理复杂的人工智能算法方面。</p><p>与此同时,软银也在研究能源投资,以满足人工智能数据中心的电力需求。他们正在考虑可再生能源和核技术的创新,以确保这些中心有足够的电力供应。</p><p>相反,孙正义迄今仍回避投资生成式人工智能公司,而这些公司最近已成为各地区投资者的宠儿。据 The Information 报道,他甚至阻止软银愿景基金投资总部位于巴黎的开源模型开发商 Mistral。</p><p>相反,他把所有的希望都寄托在软银于 2016 年收购的英国芯片设计公司 Arm 身上。孙正义将 Arm 视为其 AI 雄心的核心,其设计对未来 AI 芯片的发展至关重要。Arm 最近的 IPO 及其不断增长的市值巩固了软银在 AI 硬件领域的地位。</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>软银正计划借款100亿美元采购大量英伟达芯片</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n软银正计划借款100亿美元采购大量英伟达芯片\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-06 07:17 北京时间 <a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8azMsJMnPM5><strong>鞭牛士Bianews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鞭牛士报道,7月5日消息,据外电报道,专注于技术的日本投资者软银正在讨论寻找一种方法来确保大量英伟达的图形处理单元 (GPU),这对于人工智能 (AI) 开发至关重要。据 The Information 周四报道,这一最新举措似乎是软银首席执行官孙正义更广泛计划的一部分,该计划旨在将软银定位为人工智能技术领域的领导者,为此,软银已开始与银行讨论借款事宜,为受人工智能需求推动的能源相关项目提供高达 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8azMsJMnPM5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4543":"AI","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8azMsJMnPM5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2449424689","content_text":"鞭牛士报道,7月5日消息,据外电报道,专注于技术的日本投资者软银正在讨论寻找一种方法来确保大量英伟达的图形处理单元 (GPU),这对于人工智能 (AI) 开发至关重要。据 The Information 周四报道,这一最新举措似乎是软银首席执行官孙正义更广泛计划的一部分,该计划旨在将软银定位为人工智能技术领域的领导者,为此,软银已开始与银行讨论借款事宜,为受人工智能需求推动的能源相关项目提供高达 100 亿美元的资金。软银是腾讯、T Mobile、10x Genomics(纳斯达克股票代码: TXG )和 Automation Anywhere 等公司的支持者,它可能会考虑创建一家特殊目的公司,用借来的资金购买 GPU,然后将 GPU 租赁给软银,从而使该公司无需承担资产负债表上的债务。正在进行的讨论表明软银有意增加其在人工智能基础设施方面的投资。其计划获得 Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ) GPU,这表明这些芯片在推进人工智能技术方面的重要性日益增加,尤其是在处理复杂的人工智能算法方面。与此同时,软银也在研究能源投资,以满足人工智能数据中心的电力需求。他们正在考虑可再生能源和核技术的创新,以确保这些中心有足够的电力供应。相反,孙正义迄今仍回避投资生成式人工智能公司,而这些公司最近已成为各地区投资者的宠儿。据 The Information 报道,他甚至阻止软银愿景基金投资总部位于巴黎的开源模型开发商 Mistral。相反,他把所有的希望都寄托在软银于 2016 年收购的英国芯片设计公司 Arm 身上。孙正义将 Arm 视为其 AI 雄心的核心,其设计对未来 AI 芯片的发展至关重要。Arm 最近的 IPO 及其不断增长的市值巩固了软银在 AI 硬件领域的地位。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":272368256942320,"gmtCreate":1707534045331,"gmtModify":1707534046311,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 能突破1000[得意] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 能突破1000[得意] ","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 能突破1000[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/272368256942320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":280353185988632,"gmtCreate":1709467017937,"gmtModify":1709467020042,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"非常客观,英伟达涨势远远没有结束,但是到了2025年尤其是下半年要特别注意风险。半导体下行周期到了。","listText":"非常客观,英伟达涨势远远没有结束,但是到了2025年尤其是下半年要特别注意风险。半导体下行周期到了。","text":"非常客观,英伟达涨势远远没有结束,但是到了2025年尤其是下半年要特别注意风险。半导体下行周期到了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/280353185988632","repostId":"2416695275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2416695275","pubTimestamp":1709381100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2416695275?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-02 20:05","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Still May Not Be Nearly As Expensive As You Think","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2416695275","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There are risks for Nvidia's business, but the year ahead might yield some incredible business expansion.","content":"<html><body><ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Nvidia might be the smallest of the Magnificent Seven stocks as measured by sales, but it may not stay that way for long.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Nvidia could be sitting on massive profit potential in the coming years.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>That said, the stock still trades for a high premium, so new investors in particular should tread lightly.</div>\n</li>\n</ul><div><p><strong>Nvidia </strong><span>(NVDA<span> 4.00%</span>)</span> keeps going from strength to strength. It passed up mighty <strong>Alphabet </strong>and <strong>Amazon</strong> to become the third-most-valuable \"Magnificent Seven\" stock, and it briefly topped a $2 trillion market cap valuation. And yet, though it's the third largest business of the Magnificent Seven by market cap, it's still the smallest as measured by annual sales.</p><p>Some evidence of this fact is that Nvidia stock trades for a whopping 66 times trailing-12-month earnings per share. However, Nvidia may not be nearly as expensive as it appears to be, even after the stock's incredible 400%-plus run higher since the start of 2023. </p><div><app :collapse_on_load=\"false\" :instrument_id=\"204770\" :show_benchmark_compare=\"false\" amount_change=\"31.67\" average_volume=\"46,393,945\" company_name=\"Nvidia\" current_price=\"822.79\" daily_high=\"823.00\" daily_low=\"794.35\" default_period=\"OneYear\" dividend_yield=\"0.02%\" exchange=\"NASDAQ\" fifty_two_week_high=\"823.94\" fifty_two_week_low=\"222.97\" gross_margin=\"72.72\" logo=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/NVDA.png\" market_cap=\"$2,057B\" pe_ratio=\"68.93\" percent_change=\"4.00\" symbol=\"NVDA\" volume=\"47,913,510\"></app></div><h2>It's all about the future</h2><p>Much can be said about Nvidia's rise, the current data center investment supercycle driven by generative artificial intelligence (AI) that Nvidia helped spawn, and whether semiconductor peers can catch up and take some of Nvidia's market share.</p><p>But as far as Nvidia is concerned, calendar year 2024 (fiscal 2025 for Nvidia, the 12-month period that will end in January 2025) could be another epic year. After reporting full-year revenue of $60.9 billion, a 126% increase over the depressed results from calendar year 2022 during the bear market, management is forecasting $24 billion in sales for fiscal 2025's Q1, the three months that will end in April 2024. That's 40% of all of last year's sales in a single quarter. </p><p>CEO Jensen Huang said on the earnings call that Nvidia's supply of computing accelerator system parts is improving. However, Huang and company still expect overall demand this next year to be <em>higher </em>than what Nvidia and its partners can crank out. That implies quarterly sales could continue to tick higher from the end of Q1 and on. </p><div><div></div></div><p>But even if we simply annualize Nvidia's Q1 expected revenue, we arrive at just shy of $100 billion in this year's sales, about a 57% increase from last year. For the record, that would dramatically help Nvidia catch up to the other Magnificent Seven in terms of annual sales (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://media.ycharts.com/charts/870f446d7767d8f83fa7dbecb255e7d1.png\"/></p><p>NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p><p>And if we factor for a bit of gross profit margin contraction, resulting from a benefit from favorable parts supply at the moment, annual operating expenses of $14 billion (the Q1 outlook for operating expenses of $3.5 billion multiplied by four), and a tax rate of 17%, Nvidia could be pacing toward $50 billion in operating income or more. That would be a 50% increase over last year. </p><p>Based on these back-of-the-envelope expectations, Nvidia stock is trading for about 35 to 40 times this year's earnings, far lower than the aforementioned 66 times trailing-12-month earnings ($2 trillion market cap divided by $50 billion in net income and/or free cash flow).</p><div><div></div></div><h2>How long can Nvidia keep growing?</h2><p>Of course, even this forward-looking earnings multiple hardly makes Nvidia stock cheap. Far from it, this valuation is in anticipation of Nvidia remaining in high-growth mode for quite some time. Wild estimates like seeing global AI infrastructure reach $400 billion in annual spending by 2027 -- an estimate <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has cited a few times now, which assumes a roughly doubling in global data center value from $1 trillion this past year to $2 trillion in three years -- has many investors are putting gobs of cash on the line with this as an assumption. </p><p>But it's important to remember that Nvidia's business has always been cyclical -- periods of multi-year growth are followed by a year or two of contraction, before fresh highs are reached again. This isn't likely to change.</p><p>Thus, investors should be on guard for a significant slowdown, or even a pullback, in AI infrastructure spending, perhaps late this year or in 2025. That could send Nvidia stock spiraling, much as past cyclical downturns have done.</p><p><img src=\"https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9e528ee04bb790de5f6b95249f7f2802.png\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts.</p><div><div></div></div><p>Does that mean Nvidia stock is to be avoided right now? I'm not ready to say that just yet. If the AI infrastructure market does keep growing through 2027, Nvidia stock may not be done just yet. But given the current valuation, investors looking to get in on the action should be cautious. Consider using a dollar-cost average plan to scale into a position over time, taking advantage of any inevitable dips along the way. In the meantime, there are a lot of other great semiconductor stocks out there right now as well.</p><div></div></div></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Still May Not Be Nearly As Expensive As You Think</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Still May Not Be Nearly As Expensive As You Think\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-02 20:05 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/02/nvidia-stock-still-may-not-be-nearly-as-expensive/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia might be the smallest of the Magnificent Seven stocks as measured by sales, but it may not stay that way for long.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia could be sitting on massive profit potential in the coming years...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/02/nvidia-stock-still-may-not-be-nearly-as-expensive/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F766988%2Fcloud-infrastructure-data-centers.jpg&op=resize&w=165&h=104","relate_stocks":{"BK4523":"印度概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","TTM":"塔塔汽车","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/02/nvidia-stock-still-may-not-be-nearly-as-expensive/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2416695275","content_text":"Nvidia might be the smallest of the Magnificent Seven stocks as measured by sales, but it may not stay that way for long.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia could be sitting on massive profit potential in the coming years.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThat said, the stock still trades for a high premium, so new investors in particular should tread lightly.\n\nNvidia (NVDA 4.00%) keeps going from strength to strength. It passed up mighty Alphabet and Amazon to become the third-most-valuable \"Magnificent Seven\" stock, and it briefly topped a $2 trillion market cap valuation. And yet, though it's the third largest business of the Magnificent Seven by market cap, it's still the smallest as measured by annual sales.Some evidence of this fact is that Nvidia stock trades for a whopping 66 times trailing-12-month earnings per share. However, Nvidia may not be nearly as expensive as it appears to be, even after the stock's incredible 400%-plus run higher since the start of 2023. It's all about the futureMuch can be said about Nvidia's rise, the current data center investment supercycle driven by generative artificial intelligence (AI) that Nvidia helped spawn, and whether semiconductor peers can catch up and take some of Nvidia's market share.But as far as Nvidia is concerned, calendar year 2024 (fiscal 2025 for Nvidia, the 12-month period that will end in January 2025) could be another epic year. After reporting full-year revenue of $60.9 billion, a 126% increase over the depressed results from calendar year 2022 during the bear market, management is forecasting $24 billion in sales for fiscal 2025's Q1, the three months that will end in April 2024. That's 40% of all of last year's sales in a single quarter. CEO Jensen Huang said on the earnings call that Nvidia's supply of computing accelerator system parts is improving. However, Huang and company still expect overall demand this next year to be higher than what Nvidia and its partners can crank out. That implies quarterly sales could continue to tick higher from the end of Q1 and on. But even if we simply annualize Nvidia's Q1 expected revenue, we arrive at just shy of $100 billion in this year's sales, about a 57% increase from last year. For the record, that would dramatically help Nvidia catch up to the other Magnificent Seven in terms of annual sales (see chart below).NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsAnd if we factor for a bit of gross profit margin contraction, resulting from a benefit from favorable parts supply at the moment, annual operating expenses of $14 billion (the Q1 outlook for operating expenses of $3.5 billion multiplied by four), and a tax rate of 17%, Nvidia could be pacing toward $50 billion in operating income or more. That would be a 50% increase over last year. Based on these back-of-the-envelope expectations, Nvidia stock is trading for about 35 to 40 times this year's earnings, far lower than the aforementioned 66 times trailing-12-month earnings ($2 trillion market cap divided by $50 billion in net income and/or free cash flow).How long can Nvidia keep growing?Of course, even this forward-looking earnings multiple hardly makes Nvidia stock cheap. Far from it, this valuation is in anticipation of Nvidia remaining in high-growth mode for quite some time. Wild estimates like seeing global AI infrastructure reach $400 billion in annual spending by 2027 -- an estimate Advanced Micro Devices has cited a few times now, which assumes a roughly doubling in global data center value from $1 trillion this past year to $2 trillion in three years -- has many investors are putting gobs of cash on the line with this as an assumption. But it's important to remember that Nvidia's business has always been cyclical -- periods of multi-year growth are followed by a year or two of contraction, before fresh highs are reached again. This isn't likely to change.Thus, investors should be on guard for a significant slowdown, or even a pullback, in AI infrastructure spending, perhaps late this year or in 2025. That could send Nvidia stock spiraling, much as past cyclical downturns have done.Data by YCharts.Does that mean Nvidia stock is to be avoided right now? I'm not ready to say that just yet. If the AI infrastructure market does keep growing through 2027, Nvidia stock may not be done just yet. But given the current valuation, investors looking to get in on the action should be cautious. Consider using a dollar-cost average plan to scale into a position over time, taking advantage of any inevitable dips along the way. In the meantime, there are a lot of other great semiconductor stocks out there right now as well.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282"},"content":"还以为我自己发的 [捂脸]","text":"还以为我自己发的 [捂脸]","html":"还以为我自己发的 [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310435436445880,"gmtCreate":1716817773832,"gmtModify":1716869282866,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达的持续强劲增长,加上AMD和英特尔不温不火的人工智能前景,进一步证明了英伟达不懈的技术进步战略在抵御竞争方面非常有效。 AMD产能过低,英伟达生产周期很短,持续看涨。","listText":"英伟达的持续强劲增长,加上AMD和英特尔不温不火的人工智能前景,进一步证明了英伟达不懈的技术进步战略在抵御竞争方面非常有效。 AMD产能过低,英伟达生产周期很短,持续看涨。","text":"英伟达的持续强劲增长,加上AMD和英特尔不温不火的人工智能前景,进一步证明了英伟达不懈的技术进步战略在抵御竞争方面非常有效。 AMD产能过低,英伟达生产周期很短,持续看涨。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310435436445880","repostId":"2438068052","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2438068052","pubTimestamp":1716814800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2438068052?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-27 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Nvidia Is Leaving Competitors In The Dust","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2438068052","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Nvidia Corporation continues to grow rapidly as competitors struggle to gain a foothold in AI accelerators.Nvidia's aggressive technological progress and capacity expansion have made it very difficult","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia Corporation continues to grow rapidly as competitors struggle to gain a foothold in AI accelerators.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia's aggressive technological progress and capacity expansion have made it very difficult for others to compete.</p></li><li><p>Consequently, I expect Nvidia to see strong growth through the rest of 2024 and 2025.</p></li><li><p>Overall, I maintain a strong buy rating for Nvidia stock.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/511678a5bd019be7b0484bf99d116003\" alt=\"BlackJack3D\" title=\"BlackJack3D\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"429\"/><span>BlackJack3D</span></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported fiscal Q1 2025 earnings on Wednesday, May 22. The company posted a strong beat yet again, and guided continued growth for the current quarter (fiscal Q2, 2025). On the earnings call, management also provided updates pertaining to its competitive positioning for the next few quarters.</p><p>Combined with comments we have heard from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) this earnings season, I am now convinced that Nvidia will manage to stay well ahead of the competition in the data center AI accelerator market for quite some time. Nvidia continues to see increasing demand for its AI chips, while AMD and Intel struggle to grow their backlogs even amidst an enormous boom. I think there are good reasons for this divergence in performance, and they have to do with Nvidia’s very aggressive strategy to keep competition at bay. In this article, I take a closer look at this strategy and explain why I believe it is proving successful.</p><p>Overall, I maintain a Strong Buy rating for Nvidia stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_2304760273\">The Competitive Landscape</h2><p>Over the last year, there have been various concerns about Nvidia’s competitive moat in data center GPUs and the company’s ability to stave off competition from the other major chipmakers (especially AMD, and to some extent Intel). I have also written about this topic previously.</p><p>The last few months have yielded further clarity on the subject of competitiveness. Specifically, both AMD and Intel have struggled to win orders for their MI300 and Gaudi 3 accelerators, respectively. As I discussed in detail in a recent article, AMD had reported that the MI300 backlog was $2 billion in December and $3.5 billion in January. However, their update at the start of May showed only a $500 million increase in the MI300 backlog to $4 billion. Intel also expects only $500 million in revenue for Gaudi 3 accelerators in 2024.</p><p>Meanwhile, Nvidia continues to grow at a strong clip. Not only have data center sales continue to grow by several billion dollars each quarter, Nvidia even reported that “demand for [current-generation] Hopper [accelerators] during the quarter continues to increase.” This is in stark contrast to the tepid demand outlooks from competitors.</p><p>In addition, (i) Nvidia’s Grace Hopper super chips (CPU + GPU) are now “shipping in volume”; (ii) refreshed H200 accelerators start shipping in Q2; and (iii) next-generation Blackwell are in full production and management expects “a lot of Blackwell revenue this year.” AMD and Intel are already struggling to make inroads against the H100, so Nvidia’s aggressive roadmap for the remainder of this year and next bodes well for Nvidia’s competitive position.</p><p>Nvidia is also accelerating its cadence of chip launches, and is looking to move from a two-year update cycle to a one-year cycle.</p><h2 id=\"id_1563780422\">Nvidia’s Relentless Technological Progress</h2><p>It seems that instead of ceding market share or competing aggressively on price, Nvidia’s primary strategy for addressing competition from other chipmakers is to relentlessly advance its technology. It makes sense why this would be the preferred approach for Nvidia — although difficult to pull off, it can help preserve both market share and profit margins.</p><p>As I discussed in a recent AMD article, the MI300X looked quite competitive (hardware-wise) when it launched in Q4 2023. MI300X chips benchmarked similarly to the H100 in training and better in inference. However, MI300 chips take seven months to manufacture and AMD won’t have much supply until most likely Q4 2024. This means that the MI300 won’t just be going up against the H100. By the time there is decent supply available, the MI300 will be going up against both the refreshed H200 and also the next-generation B100 (and then B200 next year). The comparison is likely to become much less favorable for AMD, especially given the strong expected improvements in power efficiency and total cost of ownership for Blackwell chips.</p><p>Intel lags even further behind AMD in AI accelerators, so their competitive position is even worse.</p><p>Moreover, Nvidia continues to strengthen its AI chip offerings beyond data center GPUs as well. Nvidia’s Jetson chips for robotics seem to be taking off in various use cases. Nvidia management also reported that its automotive chips are meeting with good success among customers, and that the next-generation Thor chips (due to launch next year) have won a number of design wins with auto manufacturers. Although Intel does have significant inroads into automotive compute with its stake in Mobileye Global (MBLY), AMD does not — and neither is as well-positioned in robotics.</p><p>Finally, of course, Nvidia continues to rapidly strengthen its already dominant position in AI software. During the GTC Keynote in March, Nvidia showcased an impressive slew of new and updated AI software including pre-trained models that customers can fine tune for their specific needs, along with specialized offerings for various use cases like robotics, simulation, and forecasting.</p><p>With all these updates to Nvidia’s software portfolio, it seems fair to say that on the software front, the other chipmakers are nowhere close to where Nvidia is today. For instance, even if AMD were to succeed in turning ROCm into a viable competitor to CUDA (already a very difficult task), that would still leave their software offerings far behind Nvidia’s in areas like simulation, robotics, automotive, etc.</p><p>Given all this progress in both hardware and software, Nvidia continues to be in an excellent position against other major chipmakers. The continuing strong growth from Nvidia, paired with the tepid AI outlooks from AMD and Intel, provides further evidence that Nvidia’s strategy of relentless technological progress is working very well to stave off the competition.</p><h2 id=\"id_2413002422\">The Best Ability Is Availability</h2><p>One factor that had created an opening for competitors in the data center GPU space over the last year was the low availability of Nvidia’s H100 GPUs and the associated long lead times for procuring them. It made sense for customers to look elsewhere for GPUs under these conditions. However, H100 lead times have reportedly dropped from about a year to only 2–3 months. As such, it would seem that customers looking to buy many GPUs today could receive delivery of H100s sooner than they could receive delivery of AMD’s MI300s (and possibly Intel’s Gaudi 3). Hence, there is now one less reason for customers to look beyond Nvidia.</p><p>H200 and B100 accelerators should be ramping quickly over the rest of the year, and although they are likely to see supply constraints and longer lead times this year, their availability (even in limited amounts) should further strengthen the case for customers to choose Nvidia over the alternatives.</p><p>As a result, I expect that Nvidia’s great work in terms of expanding its capacity over the last few quarters is likely to yield significant benefits in terms of staving off competitors both this year and next year.</p><h2 id=\"id_2754160876\">Conclusion</h2><p>When I last covered Nvidia stock in February, I had assigned an end-of-year price target of $930, but noted that I saw significant upside beyond $1,000. This was based on an expectation of $35 billion revenue, 50% net profit margin, and $28 run-rate EPS in the last quarter of this year.</p><p>In Q1, Nvidia reported $26 billion revenue versus my expectation of $24 billion, and is guiding $28 billion for Q2. EPS also came in at a $24 run-rate versus my expectation of $22. Given the ongoing ramps for H200 and B100, I would say that Nvidia is solidly on track to meet (and perhaps to exceed) both my $35 billion revenue expectation and my $28 run-rate EPS expectation for the end of the year. Nvidia also seems to be on track to meet or exceed my net profit margin expectation — I had modeled a decline of 6 percentage points compared to fiscal Q4 2024, but Nvidia seems to be guiding a gross margin decline of about 3-5 percentage points for the remainder of the year.</p><p>Given Nvidia’s strong execution compared to my expectations, along with the significant blows that Nvidia seems to have dealt to the competition, I would say that Nvidia’s current price (around $1040) makes sense and is well-deserved. I do think that Nvidia is about fairly valued relative to my expectations for the end of this year, so I wonder if the stock price may stall for a little bit. But we are almost in June, so it is not a significant knock on Nvidia that the stock price is already where I expected to be around the end of the year. Moreover, given how effectively Nvidia seems to be shaking off its competitors, I now feel quite confident that the company will see strong top and bottom-line growth in 2025, and that a significantly higher share price will be warranted exiting next year. As such, overall, Nvidia remains a strong buy for me, and I continue to expect the stock to generate excess returns going forward.</p><p>When I initiated Nvidia as a strong buy a year ago, I had argued that investors should be patient and allow Nvidia to keep growing its top and bottom lines. I had reiterated this view in November. Today, I still think it makes sense for investors to maintain a tight grip on their Nvidia holdings and allow the company to keep growing.</p><p>As discussed, conditions are very favorable for continued strong Nvidia Corporation growth both this year and next (and perhaps beyond as well). Nvidia’s leadership position in AI is quite unique, and Nvidia continues to be a near-monopoly with excellent technology, execution, and leadership. As such, in my opinion, there is no very compelling reason to jump ship today.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Nvidia Is Leaving Competitors In The Dust</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Nvidia Is Leaving Competitors In The Dust\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-27 21:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695486-how-nvidia-is-leaving-competitors-in-the-dust><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation continues to grow rapidly as competitors struggle to gain a foothold in AI accelerators.Nvidia's aggressive technological progress and capacity expansion have made it very difficult...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695486-how-nvidia-is-leaving-competitors-in-the-dust\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4543":"AI","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695486-how-nvidia-is-leaving-competitors-in-the-dust","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2438068052","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation continues to grow rapidly as competitors struggle to gain a foothold in AI accelerators.Nvidia's aggressive technological progress and capacity expansion have made it very difficult for others to compete.Consequently, I expect Nvidia to see strong growth through the rest of 2024 and 2025.Overall, I maintain a strong buy rating for Nvidia stock.BlackJack3DNvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported fiscal Q1 2025 earnings on Wednesday, May 22. The company posted a strong beat yet again, and guided continued growth for the current quarter (fiscal Q2, 2025). On the earnings call, management also provided updates pertaining to its competitive positioning for the next few quarters.Combined with comments we have heard from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) this earnings season, I am now convinced that Nvidia will manage to stay well ahead of the competition in the data center AI accelerator market for quite some time. Nvidia continues to see increasing demand for its AI chips, while AMD and Intel struggle to grow their backlogs even amidst an enormous boom. I think there are good reasons for this divergence in performance, and they have to do with Nvidia’s very aggressive strategy to keep competition at bay. In this article, I take a closer look at this strategy and explain why I believe it is proving successful.Overall, I maintain a Strong Buy rating for Nvidia stock.The Competitive LandscapeOver the last year, there have been various concerns about Nvidia’s competitive moat in data center GPUs and the company’s ability to stave off competition from the other major chipmakers (especially AMD, and to some extent Intel). I have also written about this topic previously.The last few months have yielded further clarity on the subject of competitiveness. Specifically, both AMD and Intel have struggled to win orders for their MI300 and Gaudi 3 accelerators, respectively. As I discussed in detail in a recent article, AMD had reported that the MI300 backlog was $2 billion in December and $3.5 billion in January. However, their update at the start of May showed only a $500 million increase in the MI300 backlog to $4 billion. Intel also expects only $500 million in revenue for Gaudi 3 accelerators in 2024.Meanwhile, Nvidia continues to grow at a strong clip. Not only have data center sales continue to grow by several billion dollars each quarter, Nvidia even reported that “demand for [current-generation] Hopper [accelerators] during the quarter continues to increase.” This is in stark contrast to the tepid demand outlooks from competitors.In addition, (i) Nvidia’s Grace Hopper super chips (CPU + GPU) are now “shipping in volume”; (ii) refreshed H200 accelerators start shipping in Q2; and (iii) next-generation Blackwell are in full production and management expects “a lot of Blackwell revenue this year.” AMD and Intel are already struggling to make inroads against the H100, so Nvidia’s aggressive roadmap for the remainder of this year and next bodes well for Nvidia’s competitive position.Nvidia is also accelerating its cadence of chip launches, and is looking to move from a two-year update cycle to a one-year cycle.Nvidia’s Relentless Technological ProgressIt seems that instead of ceding market share or competing aggressively on price, Nvidia’s primary strategy for addressing competition from other chipmakers is to relentlessly advance its technology. It makes sense why this would be the preferred approach for Nvidia — although difficult to pull off, it can help preserve both market share and profit margins.As I discussed in a recent AMD article, the MI300X looked quite competitive (hardware-wise) when it launched in Q4 2023. MI300X chips benchmarked similarly to the H100 in training and better in inference. However, MI300 chips take seven months to manufacture and AMD won’t have much supply until most likely Q4 2024. This means that the MI300 won’t just be going up against the H100. By the time there is decent supply available, the MI300 will be going up against both the refreshed H200 and also the next-generation B100 (and then B200 next year). The comparison is likely to become much less favorable for AMD, especially given the strong expected improvements in power efficiency and total cost of ownership for Blackwell chips.Intel lags even further behind AMD in AI accelerators, so their competitive position is even worse.Moreover, Nvidia continues to strengthen its AI chip offerings beyond data center GPUs as well. Nvidia’s Jetson chips for robotics seem to be taking off in various use cases. Nvidia management also reported that its automotive chips are meeting with good success among customers, and that the next-generation Thor chips (due to launch next year) have won a number of design wins with auto manufacturers. Although Intel does have significant inroads into automotive compute with its stake in Mobileye Global (MBLY), AMD does not — and neither is as well-positioned in robotics.Finally, of course, Nvidia continues to rapidly strengthen its already dominant position in AI software. During the GTC Keynote in March, Nvidia showcased an impressive slew of new and updated AI software including pre-trained models that customers can fine tune for their specific needs, along with specialized offerings for various use cases like robotics, simulation, and forecasting.With all these updates to Nvidia’s software portfolio, it seems fair to say that on the software front, the other chipmakers are nowhere close to where Nvidia is today. For instance, even if AMD were to succeed in turning ROCm into a viable competitor to CUDA (already a very difficult task), that would still leave their software offerings far behind Nvidia’s in areas like simulation, robotics, automotive, etc.Given all this progress in both hardware and software, Nvidia continues to be in an excellent position against other major chipmakers. The continuing strong growth from Nvidia, paired with the tepid AI outlooks from AMD and Intel, provides further evidence that Nvidia’s strategy of relentless technological progress is working very well to stave off the competition.The Best Ability Is AvailabilityOne factor that had created an opening for competitors in the data center GPU space over the last year was the low availability of Nvidia’s H100 GPUs and the associated long lead times for procuring them. It made sense for customers to look elsewhere for GPUs under these conditions. However, H100 lead times have reportedly dropped from about a year to only 2–3 months. As such, it would seem that customers looking to buy many GPUs today could receive delivery of H100s sooner than they could receive delivery of AMD’s MI300s (and possibly Intel’s Gaudi 3). Hence, there is now one less reason for customers to look beyond Nvidia.H200 and B100 accelerators should be ramping quickly over the rest of the year, and although they are likely to see supply constraints and longer lead times this year, their availability (even in limited amounts) should further strengthen the case for customers to choose Nvidia over the alternatives.As a result, I expect that Nvidia’s great work in terms of expanding its capacity over the last few quarters is likely to yield significant benefits in terms of staving off competitors both this year and next year.ConclusionWhen I last covered Nvidia stock in February, I had assigned an end-of-year price target of $930, but noted that I saw significant upside beyond $1,000. This was based on an expectation of $35 billion revenue, 50% net profit margin, and $28 run-rate EPS in the last quarter of this year.In Q1, Nvidia reported $26 billion revenue versus my expectation of $24 billion, and is guiding $28 billion for Q2. EPS also came in at a $24 run-rate versus my expectation of $22. Given the ongoing ramps for H200 and B100, I would say that Nvidia is solidly on track to meet (and perhaps to exceed) both my $35 billion revenue expectation and my $28 run-rate EPS expectation for the end of the year. Nvidia also seems to be on track to meet or exceed my net profit margin expectation — I had modeled a decline of 6 percentage points compared to fiscal Q4 2024, but Nvidia seems to be guiding a gross margin decline of about 3-5 percentage points for the remainder of the year.Given Nvidia’s strong execution compared to my expectations, along with the significant blows that Nvidia seems to have dealt to the competition, I would say that Nvidia’s current price (around $1040) makes sense and is well-deserved. I do think that Nvidia is about fairly valued relative to my expectations for the end of this year, so I wonder if the stock price may stall for a little bit. But we are almost in June, so it is not a significant knock on Nvidia that the stock price is already where I expected to be around the end of the year. Moreover, given how effectively Nvidia seems to be shaking off its competitors, I now feel quite confident that the company will see strong top and bottom-line growth in 2025, and that a significantly higher share price will be warranted exiting next year. As such, overall, Nvidia remains a strong buy for me, and I continue to expect the stock to generate excess returns going forward.When I initiated Nvidia as a strong buy a year ago, I had argued that investors should be patient and allow Nvidia to keep growing its top and bottom lines. I had reiterated this view in November. Today, I still think it makes sense for investors to maintain a tight grip on their Nvidia holdings and allow the company to keep growing.As discussed, conditions are very favorable for continued strong Nvidia Corporation growth both this year and next (and perhaps beyond as well). Nvidia’s leadership position in AI is quite unique, and Nvidia continues to be a near-monopoly with excellent technology, execution, and leadership. As such, in my opinion, there is no very compelling reason to jump ship today.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323441654874184,"gmtCreate":1719974259403,"gmtModify":1719974260932,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 为啥就英伟达跌,想不明白","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 为啥就英伟达跌,想不明白","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 为啥就英伟达跌,想不明白","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323441654874184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3484262864630055","authorId":"3484262864630055","name":"斑马爸爸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3484262864630055","authorIdStr":"3484262864630055"},"content":"回调很正常,别急,放长线钓大鱼","text":"回调很正常,别急,放长线钓大鱼","html":"回调很正常,别急,放长线钓大鱼"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317744537395272,"gmtCreate":1718613486771,"gmtModify":1718613488507,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 总感觉要回调在涨,这一个多月涨得太快了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 总感觉要回调在涨,这一个多月涨得太快了。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 总感觉要回调在涨,这一个多月涨得太快了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317744537395272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576790050773511","authorId":"3576790050773511","name":"JUDY1976","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e3414fb9b20f2c698cc2992388d6db1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576790050773511","authorIdStr":"3576790050773511"},"content":"也就一两周就该回调了,没有一直涨的票,技术上也不支持","text":"也就一两周就该回调了,没有一直涨的票,技术上也不支持","html":"也就一两周就该回调了,没有一直涨的票,技术上也不支持"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":277120451989752,"gmtCreate":1708685512325,"gmtModify":1708686824614,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"市盈率才60,而且每股收益还在不断提高。你说贵不贵?","listText":"市盈率才60,而且每股收益还在不断提高。你说贵不贵?","text":"市盈率才60,而且每股收益还在不断提高。你说贵不贵?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/277120451989752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297016361640232,"gmtCreate":1713542634376,"gmtModify":1713542637894,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 凉凉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 凉凉","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 凉凉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297016361640232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285061117718536,"gmtCreate":1710601318100,"gmtModify":1710601320364,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"黄仁勋进军AI应用端,后期不仅仅是一家卖铲子的巨头。","listText":"黄仁勋进军AI应用端,后期不仅仅是一家卖铲子的巨头。","text":"黄仁勋进军AI应用端,后期不仅仅是一家卖铲子的巨头。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285061117718536","repostId":"2419118309","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669969200,"gmtCreate":1662038569800,"gmtModify":1662038570914,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"原来是这样,通过率这么高","listText":"原来是这样,通过率这么高","text":"原来是这样,通过率这么高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669969200","repostId":"1122599582","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122599582","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点,观察市场,提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662037609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122599582?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 21:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎点评:美国要断供高端GPU?别再被标题党骗了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122599582","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"英伟达的申请被通过的比例可能是97.8%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>看自媒体的标题总会莫名其妙恐慌,从英伟达芯片禁止出口中国(游戏迷倒吸一口冷气)到两家芯片厂商宣布断供高端GPU,再配合“突发”两个字的点缀,总会让人觉得世界大战即将来袭。我个人觉得这个问题也不能全怪自媒体,一来是所有自媒体都喜欢这么搞,你不搞就没有流量;二来是人的情绪会被引导,即使我心理建设知道“突发”类新闻都是噱头,但是看见这两个字我还是要点开,因为害怕不点开就会错过重要的事情——但为什么美国的新闻不会出现这样的描述呢?</p><p>现在回到这个事情本身。根据英伟达向SEC提交的文件,英伟达的A100和H100(H100是A100的升级版)芯片向中国出口的时候,需要向美国政府申请许可证。英伟达会向美国政府申请许可,但是不保证会得到批准。所以并非美国政府直接禁止英伟达出口高端芯片,更不是美国政府禁止中国人民买3080/3090显卡玩游戏,而是从今往后,英伟达的两款非游戏用的高端芯片出口的时候,需要向商务部申请许可证。</p><p>所以下一个问题就是,美国商务部对于申请出口许可证是什么态度?</p><p>美国国会在2018年制定/修订了法律,会管控向中国出口的军民两用产品,具体执行这个法律的是美国商务部。在美国向中国出口的货物中,81.6%不需要管控,剩下的18.1%需要管控。而在需要管控的出口产品种,绝大多数(17.4%)的产品不需要许可证,0.4%的产品可以申请豁免,只有0.4%的产品需要许可证,可以说是非常小的范围需要申请许可证。目前英伟达的两款芯片,就落入到这0.4%的范围内。具体的比例分配如下图,来自于美国国会研究(Congressional Research Service)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bab0d1ce17f584ba7f4862c0695185\" tg-width=\"454\" tg-height=\"220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据商务部的数据,2020年商务部一共接受了$1,120亿出口中国的申请(大部分产品不需要申请),但是只否定了$4.7亿产品出口,占比2.2%(这个比例表面上看起来不太对,是因为有一部分申请被退回不会计入否决比例,商家可以重新申请)。所以按照统计数字来看,英伟达的申请被通过的比例可能是97.8%。</p><p>为什么英伟达的两款芯片原来出口中国都没问题,商务部突然就要求其申请许可证了呢?原因可能是右派媒体华尔街日报8月初的一篇报道,题目是“U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows”(美国几乎批准了所有出口到中国的科技产品)</p><p>在这篇报道中,华尔街日报称2020年出口到中国的科技产品许可证批准率是94%,2021年是88%(需要记住,需要向商务部申请许可证的比例非常小),报道对拜登政府大量批准非常不满,为了激情民愤,报道还故意开通了读者评论,美国民粹精神在评论上展现得淋漓尽致。</p><p>英伟达在这件事有一个很大的失误,就是它不应该向SEC披露这个消息(披露的原因是它们认为可能会对收入产生影响。英伟达一年收入$270亿,这两款芯片在中国的销售是$4亿,占比仅仅1.4%,真的有披露的义务吗?还是被公司律师坑了?)。这个消息一披露,那么事情无疑又变成两国焦点,本来正常申请许可证有98%的批准率,但现在美国商务部骑虎难下了,哪里敢批准英伟达的申请。</p><p>AMD就很老练,到现在也没说话,只是英伟达披露之后,AMD可能也被迫披露。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎点评:美国要断供高端GPU?别再被标题党骗了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎点评:美国要断供高端GPU?别再被标题党骗了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-01 21:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>看自媒体的标题总会莫名其妙恐慌,从英伟达芯片禁止出口中国(游戏迷倒吸一口冷气)到两家芯片厂商宣布断供高端GPU,再配合“突发”两个字的点缀,总会让人觉得世界大战即将来袭。我个人觉得这个问题也不能全怪自媒体,一来是所有自媒体都喜欢这么搞,你不搞就没有流量;二来是人的情绪会被引导,即使我心理建设知道“突发”类新闻都是噱头,但是看见这两个字我还是要点开,因为害怕不点开就会错过重要的事情——但为什么美国的新闻不会出现这样的描述呢?</p><p>现在回到这个事情本身。根据英伟达向SEC提交的文件,英伟达的A100和H100(H100是A100的升级版)芯片向中国出口的时候,需要向美国政府申请许可证。英伟达会向美国政府申请许可,但是不保证会得到批准。所以并非美国政府直接禁止英伟达出口高端芯片,更不是美国政府禁止中国人民买3080/3090显卡玩游戏,而是从今往后,英伟达的两款非游戏用的高端芯片出口的时候,需要向商务部申请许可证。</p><p>所以下一个问题就是,美国商务部对于申请出口许可证是什么态度?</p><p>美国国会在2018年制定/修订了法律,会管控向中国出口的军民两用产品,具体执行这个法律的是美国商务部。在美国向中国出口的货物中,81.6%不需要管控,剩下的18.1%需要管控。而在需要管控的出口产品种,绝大多数(17.4%)的产品不需要许可证,0.4%的产品可以申请豁免,只有0.4%的产品需要许可证,可以说是非常小的范围需要申请许可证。目前英伟达的两款芯片,就落入到这0.4%的范围内。具体的比例分配如下图,来自于美国国会研究(Congressional Research Service)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bab0d1ce17f584ba7f4862c0695185\" tg-width=\"454\" tg-height=\"220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据商务部的数据,2020年商务部一共接受了$1,120亿出口中国的申请(大部分产品不需要申请),但是只否定了$4.7亿产品出口,占比2.2%(这个比例表面上看起来不太对,是因为有一部分申请被退回不会计入否决比例,商家可以重新申请)。所以按照统计数字来看,英伟达的申请被通过的比例可能是97.8%。</p><p>为什么英伟达的两款芯片原来出口中国都没问题,商务部突然就要求其申请许可证了呢?原因可能是右派媒体华尔街日报8月初的一篇报道,题目是“U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows”(美国几乎批准了所有出口到中国的科技产品)</p><p>在这篇报道中,华尔街日报称2020年出口到中国的科技产品许可证批准率是94%,2021年是88%(需要记住,需要向商务部申请许可证的比例非常小),报道对拜登政府大量批准非常不满,为了激情民愤,报道还故意开通了读者评论,美国民粹精神在评论上展现得淋漓尽致。</p><p>英伟达在这件事有一个很大的失误,就是它不应该向SEC披露这个消息(披露的原因是它们认为可能会对收入产生影响。英伟达一年收入$270亿,这两款芯片在中国的销售是$4亿,占比仅仅1.4%,真的有披露的义务吗?还是被公司律师坑了?)。这个消息一披露,那么事情无疑又变成两国焦点,本来正常申请许可证有98%的批准率,但现在美国商务部骑虎难下了,哪里敢批准英伟达的申请。</p><p>AMD就很老练,到现在也没说话,只是英伟达披露之后,AMD可能也被迫披露。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122599582","content_text":"看自媒体的标题总会莫名其妙恐慌,从英伟达芯片禁止出口中国(游戏迷倒吸一口冷气)到两家芯片厂商宣布断供高端GPU,再配合“突发”两个字的点缀,总会让人觉得世界大战即将来袭。我个人觉得这个问题也不能全怪自媒体,一来是所有自媒体都喜欢这么搞,你不搞就没有流量;二来是人的情绪会被引导,即使我心理建设知道“突发”类新闻都是噱头,但是看见这两个字我还是要点开,因为害怕不点开就会错过重要的事情——但为什么美国的新闻不会出现这样的描述呢?现在回到这个事情本身。根据英伟达向SEC提交的文件,英伟达的A100和H100(H100是A100的升级版)芯片向中国出口的时候,需要向美国政府申请许可证。英伟达会向美国政府申请许可,但是不保证会得到批准。所以并非美国政府直接禁止英伟达出口高端芯片,更不是美国政府禁止中国人民买3080/3090显卡玩游戏,而是从今往后,英伟达的两款非游戏用的高端芯片出口的时候,需要向商务部申请许可证。所以下一个问题就是,美国商务部对于申请出口许可证是什么态度?美国国会在2018年制定/修订了法律,会管控向中国出口的军民两用产品,具体执行这个法律的是美国商务部。在美国向中国出口的货物中,81.6%不需要管控,剩下的18.1%需要管控。而在需要管控的出口产品种,绝大多数(17.4%)的产品不需要许可证,0.4%的产品可以申请豁免,只有0.4%的产品需要许可证,可以说是非常小的范围需要申请许可证。目前英伟达的两款芯片,就落入到这0.4%的范围内。具体的比例分配如下图,来自于美国国会研究(Congressional Research Service)。根据商务部的数据,2020年商务部一共接受了$1,120亿出口中国的申请(大部分产品不需要申请),但是只否定了$4.7亿产品出口,占比2.2%(这个比例表面上看起来不太对,是因为有一部分申请被退回不会计入否决比例,商家可以重新申请)。所以按照统计数字来看,英伟达的申请被通过的比例可能是97.8%。为什么英伟达的两款芯片原来出口中国都没问题,商务部突然就要求其申请许可证了呢?原因可能是右派媒体华尔街日报8月初的一篇报道,题目是“U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows”(美国几乎批准了所有出口到中国的科技产品)在这篇报道中,华尔街日报称2020年出口到中国的科技产品许可证批准率是94%,2021年是88%(需要记住,需要向商务部申请许可证的比例非常小),报道对拜登政府大量批准非常不满,为了激情民愤,报道还故意开通了读者评论,美国民粹精神在评论上展现得淋漓尽致。英伟达在这件事有一个很大的失误,就是它不应该向SEC披露这个消息(披露的原因是它们认为可能会对收入产生影响。英伟达一年收入$270亿,这两款芯片在中国的销售是$4亿,占比仅仅1.4%,真的有披露的义务吗?还是被公司律师坑了?)。这个消息一披露,那么事情无疑又变成两国焦点,本来正常申请许可证有98%的批准率,但现在美国商务部骑虎难下了,哪里敢批准英伟达的申请。AMD就很老练,到现在也没说话,只是英伟达披露之后,AMD可能也被迫披露。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326694971281416,"gmtCreate":1720761209660,"gmtModify":1720761211617,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"算的很好,看到220,泡沫化300","listText":"算的很好,看到220,泡沫化300","text":"算的很好,看到220,泡沫化300","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326694971281416","repostId":"326409579991264","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":326409579991264,"gmtCreate":1720691441611,"gmtModify":1720693020813,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48978458c14aa1ff705298ea37d3811","width":"600","height":"335"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326409579991264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303791004254368,"gmtCreate":1715187979687,"gmtModify":1715187981931,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在大选年,标普500指数在夏季上涨的概率约为75%,平均回报率为7.3%。 坚定持有","listText":"在大选年,标普500指数在夏季上涨的概率约为75%,平均回报率为7.3%。 坚定持有","text":"在大选年,标普500指数在夏季上涨的概率约为75%,平均回报率为7.3%。 坚定持有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303791004254368","repostId":"2433072014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2433072014","pubTimestamp":1715182200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2433072014?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-08 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银喊话投资者:现在走人将错过夏季大涨!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2433072014","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国银行驳斥了“五月卖出然后走人”的说法,并预计市场可能会在今年夏天大幅上涨。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美国银行驳斥了“五月卖出然后走人”的说法,并预计市场可能会在今年夏天大幅上涨。</p></blockquote><p>美国银行表示,投资者应该忽略有关5月抛售股票的说法,因为大选前的夏季大涨可能即将到来。</p><p>该公司技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特梅尔(Stephen Suttmeier)在周二的一份报告中告诉客户,“不要在‘五月卖出然后走人’”。</p><p>这是一个众所周知但备受争议的说法,它源于这样一个事实:自1950年以来,道琼斯工业平均指数(DJI)在5月初至10月底期间平均上涨0.8%,远低于11月1日至次年4月30日期间通常出现的7.3%的涨幅。</p><p>然而,萨特梅尔从不同的角度看待这些数据。他指出,<strong>6月至8月是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数(SPX)自1928年以来第二强劲的三个月表现。</strong></p><p>美国银行的数据显示,在这三个月里,大盘指数有65%的时间都在上涨,平均回报率为3.2%。这可能表明,如果历史重演,市场可能会在今年夏天大幅上涨。</p><p>在萨特梅尔看来,有一个关键因素会让今年夏天的股市表现变得更好,那就是总统大选。<strong>在大选年,标普500指数在夏季上涨的概率约为75%,平均回报率为7.3%</strong>。</p><p>在萨特梅尔做出上述预测之际,市场正处于不确定时期。继2023年和今年第一季度强劲上涨之后,由于美联储何时开始降息的前景更加变幻莫测,美股4月大幅回调。</p><p>不过,美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示,尽管在抑制通胀方面进展甚微,使得政策制定者很难预测何时可以开始降息,但下一步行动不太可能是加息。这一言论部分缓解了市场的担忧。</p><p>此外,萨特梅尔指出,衡量市场中期动能的28周威廉指标(W%R)已回到超买区域。不过,他指出,目前处于超买状态的美股仍然应该被视为健康的。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银喊话投资者:现在走人将错过夏季大涨!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-08 23:30 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=138271&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行驳斥了“五月卖出然后走人”的说法,并预计市场可能会在今年夏天大幅上涨。美国银行表示,投资者应该忽略有关5月抛售股票的说法,因为大选前的夏季大涨可能即将到来。该公司技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特梅尔(Stephen Suttmeier)在周二的一份报告中告诉客户,“不要在‘五月卖出然后走人’”。这是一个众所周知但备受争议的说法,它源于这样一个事实:自1950年以来,道琼斯工业平均指数(DJI)在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=138271&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=138271&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2433072014","content_text":"美国银行驳斥了“五月卖出然后走人”的说法,并预计市场可能会在今年夏天大幅上涨。美国银行表示,投资者应该忽略有关5月抛售股票的说法,因为大选前的夏季大涨可能即将到来。该公司技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特梅尔(Stephen Suttmeier)在周二的一份报告中告诉客户,“不要在‘五月卖出然后走人’”。这是一个众所周知但备受争议的说法,它源于这样一个事实:自1950年以来,道琼斯工业平均指数(DJI)在5月初至10月底期间平均上涨0.8%,远低于11月1日至次年4月30日期间通常出现的7.3%的涨幅。然而,萨特梅尔从不同的角度看待这些数据。他指出,6月至8月是标普500指数(SPX)自1928年以来第二强劲的三个月表现。美国银行的数据显示,在这三个月里,大盘指数有65%的时间都在上涨,平均回报率为3.2%。这可能表明,如果历史重演,市场可能会在今年夏天大幅上涨。在萨特梅尔看来,有一个关键因素会让今年夏天的股市表现变得更好,那就是总统大选。在大选年,标普500指数在夏季上涨的概率约为75%,平均回报率为7.3%。在萨特梅尔做出上述预测之际,市场正处于不确定时期。继2023年和今年第一季度强劲上涨之后,由于美联储何时开始降息的前景更加变幻莫测,美股4月大幅回调。不过,美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示,尽管在抑制通胀方面进展甚微,使得政策制定者很难预测何时可以开始降息,但下一步行动不太可能是加息。这一言论部分缓解了市场的担忧。此外,萨特梅尔指出,衡量市场中期动能的28周威廉指标(W%R)已回到超买区域。不过,他指出,目前处于超买状态的美股仍然应该被视为健康的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296656929841288,"gmtCreate":1713463756725,"gmtModify":1713463758635,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我预测能上2200","listText":"我预测能上2200","text":"我预测能上2200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296656929841288","repostId":"2428302302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428302302","pubTimestamp":1713404150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428302302?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-18 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"机构预测:牛市情景下,英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428302302","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"$Evercore$ ISI本周发布报告称,尽管$英伟达$股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上,但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。该公司认为,在牛市情景下,英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元,较当前水平上涨81%。利帕西斯预计,到2030年,英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额,后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下,到本十年末,英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元,而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI本周发布报告称,尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上,但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的评级定为“跑赢大盘”,目标价为1160美元,较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为,在牛市情景下,英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元,较当前水平上涨81%。</p><p>Evercore表示,之所以设定如此高的目标价,是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司,尽管大多数投资者仍然只是这样认为。</p><p>Evercore分析师马克·利帕西斯(Mark Lipacis)表示:“我们认为投资者低估了:1)英伟达创建的芯片+硬件+软件生态系统的重要性;2)计算时代持续15-20年,通常由一家垂直整合的生态系统公司主导,其回报率在100- 1000倍之间。”</p><p>利帕西斯看涨的关键论点是,英伟达是一个人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>生态系统的参与者,它是一个新的计算平台的明显领导者,将在未来几年推动效率的提高。</p><p>利帕西斯表示:“这种‘生态系统玩家’通常占据了各自计算时代创造的价值的80%,而其他公司则争夺另外20%。”</p><p>利帕西斯预计,到2030年,英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额,后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下,到本十年末,英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元,而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。</p><p>利帕西斯表示:“我们认为,当前并行处理/物联网计算时代的结构性转变始于5至8年前,英伟达是并行处理领域的主导生态系统,而这只是为投资者带来巨大回报的开始阶段。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>机构预测:牛市情景下,英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n机构预测:牛市情景下,英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-18 09:35 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Evercore ISI本周发布报告称,尽管英伟达股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上,但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。Evercore将英伟达的评级定为“跑赢大盘”,目标价为1160美元,较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为,在牛市情景下,英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元,较当前水平上涨81%。Evercore表示,之所以设定如此高的目标价,是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司,尽管大多数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e69b1aea7f8e673c51aca46530f32d","relate_stocks":{"BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2428302302","content_text":"Evercore ISI本周发布报告称,尽管英伟达股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上,但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。Evercore将英伟达的评级定为“跑赢大盘”,目标价为1160美元,较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为,在牛市情景下,英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元,较当前水平上涨81%。Evercore表示,之所以设定如此高的目标价,是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司,尽管大多数投资者仍然只是这样认为。Evercore分析师马克·利帕西斯(Mark Lipacis)表示:“我们认为投资者低估了:1)英伟达创建的芯片+硬件+软件生态系统的重要性;2)计算时代持续15-20年,通常由一家垂直整合的生态系统公司主导,其回报率在100- 1000倍之间。”利帕西斯看涨的关键论点是,英伟达是一个人工智能生态系统的参与者,它是一个新的计算平台的明显领导者,将在未来几年推动效率的提高。利帕西斯表示:“这种‘生态系统玩家’通常占据了各自计算时代创造的价值的80%,而其他公司则争夺另外20%。”利帕西斯预计,到2030年,英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额,后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下,到本十年末,英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元,而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。利帕西斯表示:“我们认为,当前并行处理/物联网计算时代的结构性转变始于5至8年前,英伟达是并行处理领域的主导生态系统,而这只是为投资者带来巨大回报的开始阶段。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877292805,"gmtCreate":1637933110150,"gmtModify":1637933110150,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看来看去没啥用,坚定拿就行","listText":"看来看去没啥用,坚定拿就行","text":"看来看去没啥用,坚定拿就行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877292805","repostId":"1127535445","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127535445","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637930387,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127535445?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 20:39","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"盘前:恐慌情绪席卷市场!机构分析师们怎么看?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127535445","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月26日,美股三大股指期货全线下挫,截至发稿,道指期货跌2.21%;标普500指数期货跌1.65%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.89%;\n\nVIX恐慌指数涨幅扩大至近40%,报25.79\n\n本周五","content":"<p>11月26日,美股三大股指期货全线下挫,截至发稿,道指期货跌2.21%;标普500指数期货跌1.65%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.89%;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ea9b7b891d59256e95136940f836bc8\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>VIX恐慌指数涨幅扩大至近40%,报25.79</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdda64d7dfc6a56d1938961bc566e0c1\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>本周五,南非新发现的一种新冠病毒变种引发全球恐慌,投资者们纷纷涌向避险资产。</p>\n<p>目前在南非、博兹瓦纳和中国香港已经发现该种变种病毒的确诊病例。英国卫生安全局将其描述为“迄今为止最糟糕的一种”,与其他变异株相比,这种变种病毒刺突蛋白变化更多,突变数量是目前占主导地位的Delta毒株的两倍。目前人们对这种变异病毒知之甚少,不过科学家们说,这种病毒有一种不同寻常的突变组合,可能能够逃避疫苗的免疫反应,或更具传染性。</p>\n<p><b>以下是部分投资机构对于这种新冠变种病毒的看法:</b></p>\n<p>日本金融服务公司Monex首席战略师TAKASHI HIROKI:“这种变体对于市场来说是一种新的风险。我们不知道它躲过免疫的效果有多强。”</p>\n<p>澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略主管RAY ATTRILL:“人们对这(病毒变种)意味着什么尚不确定。不过当这种新闻爆发时,市场总习惯先开枪,然后再问问题。”</p>\n<p>新加坡银行外汇分析师Moh siong sim:“我们仍然不知道这种病毒的传染性有多大……这是一种普遍的不确定性。如果疫苗无效,市场将面临另一波全球感染的风险。重新开放的希望可能会破灭。”</p>\n<p>HYPERION资产管理公司首席信息官MARK ARNOLD:“我认为世界不会再回到疫情前的状态了。随着时间的推移,我们终究会感染变异病毒,而这会改变经济运作的方式。这就是现实。”</p>\n<p>巴克莱高级外汇策略师SHINICHIRO KADOTA:“我们看到德国正在考虑封锁,所以这种新变种病毒和新冠疫情的爆发对市场情绪总体上构成了一些风险。如果新冠疫情形势恶化,美元对日元的汇率可能进一步下跌,但同时,央行货币政策的分歧在中期内肯定会对日元造成压力。”</p>\n<p>澳州联邦银行固收部门主管MARTIN WHETTON:“要密切关注新的病毒变种。尽管我们都不是病毒学家,但我们都看到了这对央行政策和市场预期路径的影响。”</p>\n<p>OANDA分析师JEFFREY HALLEY:“英国已经暂停了来自南非和其他五个邻国的航班,我们可以预期在其他地方出现更多这样的情况。此前,世界在面对Delta变种病毒时的自满表现带来了惨痛的教训。”</p>\n<p><b>盘前行情</b></p>\n<p>美股区块链概念股盘前走低,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings</a>跌超8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">SOS Limited</a>跌超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>跌超4%;</p>\n<p>美股油气板块盘前下挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVE\">Cenovus能源</a>盘前跌8.88%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>盘前跌6.5%,荷兰皇家壳牌盘前跌5.86%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">道达尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>石油盘前跌5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>盘前跌4.43%;</p>\n<p>美股抗疫概念股盘前走高,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHPI\">联合保健产品</a>盘前涨超18%,Moderna盘前涨超10%,Ocugen盘前涨7.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>盘前涨6.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>盘前涨5.94%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>盘前涨超5%;</p>\n<p>美股大型科技股盘前普跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>跌近3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌2.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>跌超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>跌1.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>跌1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌1.04%;</p>\n<p>美股邮轮、航空股盘前集体重挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>跌超10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>跌超7%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">联合大陆航空</a>跌超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>跌超5%;</p>\n<p>中概股盘前多数下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌超6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>跌6.73%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>跌6.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌5.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近4.7%;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>盘前超6%,公司收到美国退市警告,要求60天内提交合规计划;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>盘前涨近8%,ARK基金持续买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video的股票;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>盘前跌超12%,国务院发布关于修改《中华人民共和国烟草专卖法实施条例》的决定,电子烟等新型烟草制品参照卷烟有关规定执行;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>盘前跌超18%,第三季度营收大幅不及市场预期。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲市场</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要股指全线下跌,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数跌2.78%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌2.66%、法国CAC40跌3.51%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382961580932d74b49a927a30d0e0427\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货加速重挫,截止发稿,WTI原油跌5.78%,报73.86美元/桶;布伦特原油跌5.48%,报77.74美元/桶。</p>\n<p>新发现的新冠病毒变体令投资者不安,而美国和其他国家释放原油储备后全球供应过剩可能在第一季度加剧。OPEC消息人士称,预计12月将出现40万桶/日的过剩规模,如果消费国继续释储,1月将扩大到过剩230万桶/日,2月达到370万桶/日。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/357c51bc559f9c2d7e024abe2ff4fda6\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8d62fd35ba99eb9a1d48838f719bc5\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货反弹,截止发稿,涨1.35%,报1808.3美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>因为对一种新发现的新冠病毒变体扩散的担忧提振了黄金的避险吸引力。不过由于对美联储可能转向更加鹰派的押注不断增加,金价将录得周线跌幅。加上与疫情相关的增长担忧应会削弱高风险货币,并最终支持美元,从而打击金价。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/394dafd07df27e392ef5795a32411594\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前:恐慌情绪席卷市场!机构分析师们怎么看?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前:恐慌情绪席卷市场!机构分析师们怎么看?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-26 20:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月26日,美股三大股指期货全线下挫,截至发稿,道指期货跌2.21%;标普500指数期货跌1.65%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.89%;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ea9b7b891d59256e95136940f836bc8\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>VIX恐慌指数涨幅扩大至近40%,报25.79</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdda64d7dfc6a56d1938961bc566e0c1\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>本周五,南非新发现的一种新冠病毒变种引发全球恐慌,投资者们纷纷涌向避险资产。</p>\n<p>目前在南非、博兹瓦纳和中国香港已经发现该种变种病毒的确诊病例。英国卫生安全局将其描述为“迄今为止最糟糕的一种”,与其他变异株相比,这种变种病毒刺突蛋白变化更多,突变数量是目前占主导地位的Delta毒株的两倍。目前人们对这种变异病毒知之甚少,不过科学家们说,这种病毒有一种不同寻常的突变组合,可能能够逃避疫苗的免疫反应,或更具传染性。</p>\n<p><b>以下是部分投资机构对于这种新冠变种病毒的看法:</b></p>\n<p>日本金融服务公司Monex首席战略师TAKASHI HIROKI:“这种变体对于市场来说是一种新的风险。我们不知道它躲过免疫的效果有多强。”</p>\n<p>澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略主管RAY ATTRILL:“人们对这(病毒变种)意味着什么尚不确定。不过当这种新闻爆发时,市场总习惯先开枪,然后再问问题。”</p>\n<p>新加坡银行外汇分析师Moh siong sim:“我们仍然不知道这种病毒的传染性有多大……这是一种普遍的不确定性。如果疫苗无效,市场将面临另一波全球感染的风险。重新开放的希望可能会破灭。”</p>\n<p>HYPERION资产管理公司首席信息官MARK ARNOLD:“我认为世界不会再回到疫情前的状态了。随着时间的推移,我们终究会感染变异病毒,而这会改变经济运作的方式。这就是现实。”</p>\n<p>巴克莱高级外汇策略师SHINICHIRO KADOTA:“我们看到德国正在考虑封锁,所以这种新变种病毒和新冠疫情的爆发对市场情绪总体上构成了一些风险。如果新冠疫情形势恶化,美元对日元的汇率可能进一步下跌,但同时,央行货币政策的分歧在中期内肯定会对日元造成压力。”</p>\n<p>澳州联邦银行固收部门主管MARTIN WHETTON:“要密切关注新的病毒变种。尽管我们都不是病毒学家,但我们都看到了这对央行政策和市场预期路径的影响。”</p>\n<p>OANDA分析师JEFFREY HALLEY:“英国已经暂停了来自南非和其他五个邻国的航班,我们可以预期在其他地方出现更多这样的情况。此前,世界在面对Delta变种病毒时的自满表现带来了惨痛的教训。”</p>\n<p><b>盘前行情</b></p>\n<p>美股区块链概念股盘前走低,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings</a>跌超8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">SOS Limited</a>跌超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>跌超4%;</p>\n<p>美股油气板块盘前下挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVE\">Cenovus能源</a>盘前跌8.88%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>盘前跌6.5%,荷兰皇家壳牌盘前跌5.86%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">道达尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>石油盘前跌5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>盘前跌4.43%;</p>\n<p>美股抗疫概念股盘前走高,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHPI\">联合保健产品</a>盘前涨超18%,Moderna盘前涨超10%,Ocugen盘前涨7.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>盘前涨6.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>盘前涨5.94%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>盘前涨超5%;</p>\n<p>美股大型科技股盘前普跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>跌近3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌2.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>跌超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>跌1.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>跌1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌1.04%;</p>\n<p>美股邮轮、航空股盘前集体重挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>跌超10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>跌超7%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">联合大陆航空</a>跌超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>跌超5%;</p>\n<p>中概股盘前多数下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌超6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>跌6.73%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>跌6.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌5.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近4.7%;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>盘前超6%,公司收到美国退市警告,要求60天内提交合规计划;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>盘前涨近8%,ARK基金持续买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video的股票;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>盘前跌超12%,国务院发布关于修改《中华人民共和国烟草专卖法实施条例》的决定,电子烟等新型烟草制品参照卷烟有关规定执行;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>盘前跌超18%,第三季度营收大幅不及市场预期。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲市场</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要股指全线下跌,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数跌2.78%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌2.66%、法国CAC40跌3.51%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382961580932d74b49a927a30d0e0427\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货加速重挫,截止发稿,WTI原油跌5.78%,报73.86美元/桶;布伦特原油跌5.48%,报77.74美元/桶。</p>\n<p>新发现的新冠病毒变体令投资者不安,而美国和其他国家释放原油储备后全球供应过剩可能在第一季度加剧。OPEC消息人士称,预计12月将出现40万桶/日的过剩规模,如果消费国继续释储,1月将扩大到过剩230万桶/日,2月达到370万桶/日。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/357c51bc559f9c2d7e024abe2ff4fda6\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8d62fd35ba99eb9a1d48838f719bc5\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货反弹,截止发稿,涨1.35%,报1808.3美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>因为对一种新发现的新冠病毒变体扩散的担忧提振了黄金的避险吸引力。不过由于对美联储可能转向更加鹰派的押注不断增加,金价将录得周线跌幅。加上与疫情相关的增长担忧应会削弱高风险货币,并最终支持美元,从而打击金价。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/394dafd07df27e392ef5795a32411594\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127535445","content_text":"11月26日,美股三大股指期货全线下挫,截至发稿,道指期货跌2.21%;标普500指数期货跌1.65%;纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.89%;\n\nVIX恐慌指数涨幅扩大至近40%,报25.79\n\n本周五,南非新发现的一种新冠病毒变种引发全球恐慌,投资者们纷纷涌向避险资产。\n目前在南非、博兹瓦纳和中国香港已经发现该种变种病毒的确诊病例。英国卫生安全局将其描述为“迄今为止最糟糕的一种”,与其他变异株相比,这种变种病毒刺突蛋白变化更多,突变数量是目前占主导地位的Delta毒株的两倍。目前人们对这种变异病毒知之甚少,不过科学家们说,这种病毒有一种不同寻常的突变组合,可能能够逃避疫苗的免疫反应,或更具传染性。\n以下是部分投资机构对于这种新冠变种病毒的看法:\n日本金融服务公司Monex首席战略师TAKASHI HIROKI:“这种变体对于市场来说是一种新的风险。我们不知道它躲过免疫的效果有多强。”\n澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略主管RAY ATTRILL:“人们对这(病毒变种)意味着什么尚不确定。不过当这种新闻爆发时,市场总习惯先开枪,然后再问问题。”\n新加坡银行外汇分析师Moh siong sim:“我们仍然不知道这种病毒的传染性有多大……这是一种普遍的不确定性。如果疫苗无效,市场将面临另一波全球感染的风险。重新开放的希望可能会破灭。”\nHYPERION资产管理公司首席信息官MARK ARNOLD:“我认为世界不会再回到疫情前的状态了。随着时间的推移,我们终究会感染变异病毒,而这会改变经济运作的方式。这就是现实。”\n巴克莱高级外汇策略师SHINICHIRO KADOTA:“我们看到德国正在考虑封锁,所以这种新变种病毒和新冠疫情的爆发对市场情绪总体上构成了一些风险。如果新冠疫情形势恶化,美元对日元的汇率可能进一步下跌,但同时,央行货币政策的分歧在中期内肯定会对日元造成压力。”\n澳州联邦银行固收部门主管MARTIN WHETTON:“要密切关注新的病毒变种。尽管我们都不是病毒学家,但我们都看到了这对央行政策和市场预期路径的影响。”\nOANDA分析师JEFFREY HALLEY:“英国已经暂停了来自南非和其他五个邻国的航班,我们可以预期在其他地方出现更多这样的情况。此前,世界在面对Delta变种病毒时的自满表现带来了惨痛的教训。”\n盘前行情\n美股区块链概念股盘前走低,Marathon Digital Holdings跌超8%,Bit Digital Inc、Riot Blockchain、嘉楠科技跌超7%,SOS Limited跌超6%,Coinbase跌超4%;\n美股油气板块盘前下挫,Cenovus能源盘前跌8.88%,英国石油盘前跌6.5%,荷兰皇家壳牌盘前跌5.86%,道达尔、埃克森美孚石油盘前跌5%,雪佛龙盘前跌4.43%;\n美股抗疫概念股盘前走高,联合保健产品盘前涨超18%,Moderna盘前涨超10%,Ocugen盘前涨7.89%,BioNTech SE盘前涨6.9%,诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前涨5.94%,辉瑞盘前涨超5%;\n美股大型科技股盘前普跌,台积电、英伟达跌近3.5%,特斯拉跌超3%,美光科技跌2.74%,高通、Meta Platforms跌超2%,苹果、英特尔跌1.9%,思科跌1.4%,微软跌1.04%;\n美股邮轮、航空股盘前集体重挫,嘉年华邮轮跌超10%,挪威邮轮跌超7%;达美航空、联合大陆航空跌超7%,美国航空跌超5%;\n中概股盘前多数下跌,滴滴跌超6%;金山云跌6.73%,好未来跌6.36%,爱奇艺跌5.6%,小鹏汽车、蔚来、贝壳跌超5%,阿里巴巴跌超4%,理想汽车跌近4.7%;\n法拉第未来盘前超6%,公司收到美国退市警告,要求60天内提交合规计划;\nZoom盘前涨近8%,ARK基金持续买入Zoom Video的股票;\n雾芯科技盘前跌超12%,国务院发布关于修改《中华人民共和国烟草专卖法实施条例》的决定,电子烟等新型烟草制品参照卷烟有关规定执行;\n拼多多盘前跌超18%,第三季度营收大幅不及市场预期。\n欧洲市场\n欧洲主要股指全线下跌,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数跌2.78%,英国富时100跌2.66%、法国CAC40跌3.51%。\n\n原油\n原油期货加速重挫,截止发稿,WTI原油跌5.78%,报73.86美元/桶;布伦特原油跌5.48%,报77.74美元/桶。\n新发现的新冠病毒变体令投资者不安,而美国和其他国家释放原油储备后全球供应过剩可能在第一季度加剧。OPEC消息人士称,预计12月将出现40万桶/日的过剩规模,如果消费国继续释储,1月将扩大到过剩230万桶/日,2月达到370万桶/日。\n\n黄金\n黄金期货反弹,截止发稿,涨1.35%,报1808.3美元/盎司。\n因为对一种新发现的新冠病毒变体扩散的担忧提振了黄金的避险吸引力。不过由于对美联储可能转向更加鹰派的押注不断增加,金价将录得周线跌幅。加上与疫情相关的增长担忧应会削弱高风险货币,并最终支持美元,从而打击金价。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363098203091256,"gmtCreate":1729669381834,"gmtModify":1729669383733,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363098203091256","repostId":"361180570558784","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":361180570558784,"gmtCreate":1729218865136,"gmtModify":1729219832511,"author":{"id":"3556065915296727","authorId":"3556065915296727","name":"京城Z先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da54e036041e5c8ebada295a54421b52","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556065915296727","authorIdStr":"3556065915296727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"德鲁肯米勒说他夏天卖出英伟达是个巨大的错误,不知道他说这句话时有没有想起00年他犯下的巨大错误: 99年底,德鲁认为科技股到头了卖掉了手里持仓的科技股大赚,但是00年一季度科技股持续飙升,德鲁肯米勒被市场涨的受不了,在00年2月底又重新上车,没过多久科技股崩盘。 德鲁肯米勒的这次骚操作直接导致了索罗斯投资公司清盘、改成了家族办公室,他自己也离开了索罗斯。 说这个并不是说科技股一定会怎么样、很早之前也聊过当下的科技股基本面已经远不是00年所比拟的。而是想说,如德鲁肯米勒这样投资的大佬,在面对卖飞时也会遭受内心的几大煎熬,20年前如此20年后依然,心性修炼是每个投资者的必修课、随意巴菲特说看接班人首要素质就是情绪稳定。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> ","listText":"德鲁肯米勒说他夏天卖出英伟达是个巨大的错误,不知道他说这句话时有没有想起00年他犯下的巨大错误: 99年底,德鲁认为科技股到头了卖掉了手里持仓的科技股大赚,但是00年一季度科技股持续飙升,德鲁肯米勒被市场涨的受不了,在00年2月底又重新上车,没过多久科技股崩盘。 德鲁肯米勒的这次骚操作直接导致了索罗斯投资公司清盘、改成了家族办公室,他自己也离开了索罗斯。 说这个并不是说科技股一定会怎么样、很早之前也聊过当下的科技股基本面已经远不是00年所比拟的。而是想说,如德鲁肯米勒这样投资的大佬,在面对卖飞时也会遭受内心的几大煎熬,20年前如此20年后依然,心性修炼是每个投资者的必修课、随意巴菲特说看接班人首要素质就是情绪稳定。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> ","text":"德鲁肯米勒说他夏天卖出英伟达是个巨大的错误,不知道他说这句话时有没有想起00年他犯下的巨大错误: 99年底,德鲁认为科技股到头了卖掉了手里持仓的科技股大赚,但是00年一季度科技股持续飙升,德鲁肯米勒被市场涨的受不了,在00年2月底又重新上车,没过多久科技股崩盘。 德鲁肯米勒的这次骚操作直接导致了索罗斯投资公司清盘、改成了家族办公室,他自己也离开了索罗斯。 说这个并不是说科技股一定会怎么样、很早之前也聊过当下的科技股基本面已经远不是00年所比拟的。而是想说,如德鲁肯米勒这样投资的大佬,在面对卖飞时也会遭受内心的几大煎熬,20年前如此20年后依然,心性修炼是每个投资者的必修课、随意巴菲特说看接班人首要素质就是情绪稳定。$英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361180570558784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357837508456736,"gmtCreate":1728399385149,"gmtModify":1728399386790,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357837508456736","repostId":"2473379364","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2473379364","pubTimestamp":1728342000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2473379364?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-08 07:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"几乎没有放缓迹象,美股牛市将迎两周年!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2473379364","media":"智通财经","summary":"美国股市的牛市即将迎来两周年纪念,这是本轮反弹的最新里程碑,除了华尔街最乐观的投资者之外,此次反弹超出了几乎所有人的预期。数据显示,尽管过去三个月的上涨路径有些波动,整体牛市几乎没有放缓的迹象。Ned Davis Research的一组分析师深入研究了牛市在达到两周年时的表现。数据显示,自二战结束以来,有12次牛市持续了至少两年。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国股市的牛市即将迎来两周年纪念,这是本轮反弹的最<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002219\">新里程</a>碑,除了华尔街最乐观的投资者之外,此次反弹超出了几乎所有人的预期。</p><p>智通财经APP获悉,自2022年10月12日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数触及3,577.03的收盘低点以来,该指数已上涨超过60%,这一涨幅远远快于许多金融专业人士的预期,迫使华尔街机构多次上调其年终目标。</p><p>数据显示,尽管过去三个月的上涨路径有些波动,整体牛市几乎没有放缓的迹象。根据FactSet的数据,Cboe波动率指数(VIX),即“华尔街恐慌指数”,在8月5日全球市场大幅下跌时一度触及自2020年3月以来的盘中最高水平。然而,这一恐慌很快消退,股市也迅速反弹。类似的下跌也在9月第一周发生,但这一回调同样吸引了投资者低位买入的需求。</p><p>此后,标普500指数在今年前三季度表现强劲,创下自1990年代末以来的最佳表现。如果能保持当前涨势直到年底,标普500指数将连续两年涨幅超过20%,这是自1998年以来的首次。</p><p>然而,近期市场面临的潜在风险有所增加。当前美国股市的估值相较于历史水平较高,仅次于2021年底的峰值。此外,地缘政治风险再次浮现,以色列和伊朗之间的冲突重新升级,推动原油价格上涨,也令股市投资者感到紧张。</p><p>随着第三季度财报季的到来,投资者将密切关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US,GOOG.US)等巨型企业的财报,希望从中找到这些公司巨额投资何时能见回报的线索。随后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)的财报也将受到关注。英伟达在8月的上一轮财报中表现强劲,但仍未能提振股价。</p><p>此外,11月5日的美国大选也让许多交易员购买对冲工具,以防选举结果可能引发的波动,尤其是在选举结果可能出现争议的情况下。</p><p>由于这些不确定性,全球数百万投资者都在寻求市场下一步走势的指引。</p><p>Ned Davis Research的一组分析师深入研究了牛市在达到两周年时的表现。数据显示,自二战结束以来,有12次牛市持续了至少两年。如果本轮牛市能够延续到本周末,它将成为第13次。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e322d216c381dc6b2db852ac59637c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"566\"/></p><p>其中有7次牛市成功进入第三年,表明当前牛市继续延续的概率对投资者有利。根据Ned Davis的统计,过去12次牛市在两周年时的中位数涨幅为54.4%,这意味着过去两年的涨幅与历史相比并不算特别显著。</p><p>但未来走势则更加难以预测。根据Ned Davis团队的分析,牛市在第三年通常获得13.3%的中位数涨幅,但未能延续的牛市则出现了5.9%的回撤。</p><p>值得注意的是,牛市并不会因为“老龄化”而终结。Ned Davis的分析显示,每次牛市的终结都是由某种催化剂引发的。经济衰退是最常见的原因,在三次不同的牛市中导致了其在第三年结束。第四次例外发生在1966年10月,当时美联储通过紧缩货币政策以应对通胀,从而结束了牛市。</p><p>第五次例外是2009年3月开始的牛市,当时股市下滑是由标准普尔下调美国信用评级以及欧洲主权债务危机引发的全球恐慌导致的。</p><p>Ned Davis团队认为,只要以下三个条件得到满足,当前的牛市有望进入第三年。</p><p>首先,自2022年末开始的通胀回落趋势必须继续。如果投资者看到通胀再次加速的明确迹象,可能会引发市场波动。其次,美联储必须成功实现美国经济的“软着陆”,即在维持略微放缓但仍然正增长的情况下,将通胀控制在2%的目标范围内。如果经济进入衰退,股市可能会大幅下滑。不过,Ned Davis经济团队认为目前还没有太多理由担心这一点。</p><p>第三,美国最大的企业必须继续保持盈利增长。华尔街预计,受益于人工智能的“七巨头”企业的盈利增长将在今年晚些时候开始放缓。其他企业将需要填补这一缺口,尽管预测显示这有可能发生,但预测总是存在不确定性,最终还将取决于未来一年的经济表现。</p><p>周一,美股三大指数下跌,纳指跌超1.1%,标普500指数、道指跌近1%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>几乎没有放缓迹象,美股牛市将迎两周年!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n几乎没有放缓迹象,美股牛市将迎两周年!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-08 07:00 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1190697.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国股市的牛市即将迎来两周年纪念,这是本轮反弹的最新里程碑,除了华尔街最乐观的投资者之外,此次反弹超出了几乎所有人的预期。智通财经APP获悉,自2022年10月12日标普500指数触及3,577.03的收盘低点以来,该指数已上涨超过60%,这一涨幅远远快于许多金融专业人士的预期,迫使华尔街机构多次上调其年终目标。数据显示,尽管过去三个月的上涨路径有些波动,整体牛市几乎没有放缓的迹象。根据...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1190697.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1190697.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2473379364","content_text":"美国股市的牛市即将迎来两周年纪念,这是本轮反弹的最新里程碑,除了华尔街最乐观的投资者之外,此次反弹超出了几乎所有人的预期。智通财经APP获悉,自2022年10月12日标普500指数触及3,577.03的收盘低点以来,该指数已上涨超过60%,这一涨幅远远快于许多金融专业人士的预期,迫使华尔街机构多次上调其年终目标。数据显示,尽管过去三个月的上涨路径有些波动,整体牛市几乎没有放缓的迹象。根据FactSet的数据,Cboe波动率指数(VIX),即“华尔街恐慌指数”,在8月5日全球市场大幅下跌时一度触及自2020年3月以来的盘中最高水平。然而,这一恐慌很快消退,股市也迅速反弹。类似的下跌也在9月第一周发生,但这一回调同样吸引了投资者低位买入的需求。此后,标普500指数在今年前三季度表现强劲,创下自1990年代末以来的最佳表现。如果能保持当前涨势直到年底,标普500指数将连续两年涨幅超过20%,这是自1998年以来的首次。然而,近期市场面临的潜在风险有所增加。当前美国股市的估值相较于历史水平较高,仅次于2021年底的峰值。此外,地缘政治风险再次浮现,以色列和伊朗之间的冲突重新升级,推动原油价格上涨,也令股市投资者感到紧张。随着第三季度财报季的到来,投资者将密切关注微软(MSFT.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US,GOOG.US)等巨型企业的财报,希望从中找到这些公司巨额投资何时能见回报的线索。随后,英伟达(NVDA.US)的财报也将受到关注。英伟达在8月的上一轮财报中表现强劲,但仍未能提振股价。此外,11月5日的美国大选也让许多交易员购买对冲工具,以防选举结果可能引发的波动,尤其是在选举结果可能出现争议的情况下。由于这些不确定性,全球数百万投资者都在寻求市场下一步走势的指引。Ned Davis Research的一组分析师深入研究了牛市在达到两周年时的表现。数据显示,自二战结束以来,有12次牛市持续了至少两年。如果本轮牛市能够延续到本周末,它将成为第13次。其中有7次牛市成功进入第三年,表明当前牛市继续延续的概率对投资者有利。根据Ned Davis的统计,过去12次牛市在两周年时的中位数涨幅为54.4%,这意味着过去两年的涨幅与历史相比并不算特别显著。但未来走势则更加难以预测。根据Ned Davis团队的分析,牛市在第三年通常获得13.3%的中位数涨幅,但未能延续的牛市则出现了5.9%的回撤。值得注意的是,牛市并不会因为“老龄化”而终结。Ned Davis的分析显示,每次牛市的终结都是由某种催化剂引发的。经济衰退是最常见的原因,在三次不同的牛市中导致了其在第三年结束。第四次例外发生在1966年10月,当时美联储通过紧缩货币政策以应对通胀,从而结束了牛市。第五次例外是2009年3月开始的牛市,当时股市下滑是由标准普尔下调美国信用评级以及欧洲主权债务危机引发的全球恐慌导致的。Ned Davis团队认为,只要以下三个条件得到满足,当前的牛市有望进入第三年。首先,自2022年末开始的通胀回落趋势必须继续。如果投资者看到通胀再次加速的明确迹象,可能会引发市场波动。其次,美联储必须成功实现美国经济的“软着陆”,即在维持略微放缓但仍然正增长的情况下,将通胀控制在2%的目标范围内。如果经济进入衰退,股市可能会大幅下滑。不过,Ned Davis经济团队认为目前还没有太多理由担心这一点。第三,美国最大的企业必须继续保持盈利增长。华尔街预计,受益于人工智能的“七巨头”企业的盈利增长将在今年晚些时候开始放缓。其他企业将需要填补这一缺口,尽管预测显示这有可能发生,但预测总是存在不确定性,最终还将取决于未来一年的经济表现。周一,美股三大指数下跌,纳指跌超1.1%,标普500指数、道指跌近1%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356512055406984,"gmtCreate":1728041251418,"gmtModify":1728041253224,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356512055406984","repostId":"356502217212216","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":356502217212216,"gmtCreate":1728038651568,"gmtModify":1728229803474,"author":{"id":"74125836878304","authorId":"74125836878304","name":"空军大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491ac6b2de4e6f00b0c07853ca1c186b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"74125836878304","authorIdStr":"74125836878304"},"themes":[],"title":"英伟达为什么涨不起来?","htmlText":"纳斯达克连续跌两天了,但是大跌可能性也不大,毕竟道琼斯不断创新高,主要是降息以后,对股市是有双刺激的,一个是会有更多的资金流入股市,第二个方面就是降息以后,中小公司的收入增长速度会变快,这个才是本质的问题,因为股票上涨的本质是收入增长,所以降息对股市是实打实的利好,很多人担心跟2008年一样会大跌,这不可能的事情,因为情况不一样了,2007年的时候美股市值前几名除了微软之外,其他的全部是传统产业,像通用汽车,埃克森美孚石油,花旗银行这些周期性非常强的公司,这些公司经营杠杆高,不断加息就会破产,而现在Big 7 除了特斯拉是高财务杠杆经营外,其他六个公司都是现金流非常多的非周期性行业,虽然英伟达是周期性行业,但是英伟达没有贷款,现金多得要死,而银行保险地产这些产业的已经不是美国的重要支柱产业了,美国的支柱产业已经变成互联网,软件,芯片,医药这些轻资产的产业了,轻资产行业都是大把的现金流,所以不会出现2008年那种情况了。 今天我说一下为什么英伟达涨不起来,因为违反了我的数学模型,我的数学模型也简单,就是收入增长40%以上的股票不管怎么跌,后面都会涨起来,收入增长80%以上的股票,基本上不怎么跌,每个季度都会上涨,所以选股票只做收入增长80%以上的公司,但是有几种情况不做的,一种是非龙头行业不做,SMCI我就不做,因为不是龙头,市值太小或者收入规模太小也不做,还有就是收入增长速度环比下降的时候也不能做,英伟达的问题就出在这里了,英伟达连续两个季度收入增长速度环比下降,去年四季度收入增长265%,今年一季度收入增长只有262%,收入环比下降的第一个季度,股价还会上涨的,英伟达就大涨了,二季度收入增长122%,环比增长速度继续下降,按我的数学模型,就是收入环比增长下降两个季度股价就会跌,所以英伟达二季度财报出来就跌了,二季度本来预期是280亿美元,结果是300亿美元,虽然超出市场预","listText":"纳斯达克连续跌两天了,但是大跌可能性也不大,毕竟道琼斯不断创新高,主要是降息以后,对股市是有双刺激的,一个是会有更多的资金流入股市,第二个方面就是降息以后,中小公司的收入增长速度会变快,这个才是本质的问题,因为股票上涨的本质是收入增长,所以降息对股市是实打实的利好,很多人担心跟2008年一样会大跌,这不可能的事情,因为情况不一样了,2007年的时候美股市值前几名除了微软之外,其他的全部是传统产业,像通用汽车,埃克森美孚石油,花旗银行这些周期性非常强的公司,这些公司经营杠杆高,不断加息就会破产,而现在Big 7 除了特斯拉是高财务杠杆经营外,其他六个公司都是现金流非常多的非周期性行业,虽然英伟达是周期性行业,但是英伟达没有贷款,现金多得要死,而银行保险地产这些产业的已经不是美国的重要支柱产业了,美国的支柱产业已经变成互联网,软件,芯片,医药这些轻资产的产业了,轻资产行业都是大把的现金流,所以不会出现2008年那种情况了。 今天我说一下为什么英伟达涨不起来,因为违反了我的数学模型,我的数学模型也简单,就是收入增长40%以上的股票不管怎么跌,后面都会涨起来,收入增长80%以上的股票,基本上不怎么跌,每个季度都会上涨,所以选股票只做收入增长80%以上的公司,但是有几种情况不做的,一种是非龙头行业不做,SMCI我就不做,因为不是龙头,市值太小或者收入规模太小也不做,还有就是收入增长速度环比下降的时候也不能做,英伟达的问题就出在这里了,英伟达连续两个季度收入增长速度环比下降,去年四季度收入增长265%,今年一季度收入增长只有262%,收入环比下降的第一个季度,股价还会上涨的,英伟达就大涨了,二季度收入增长122%,环比增长速度继续下降,按我的数学模型,就是收入环比增长下降两个季度股价就会跌,所以英伟达二季度财报出来就跌了,二季度本来预期是280亿美元,结果是300亿美元,虽然超出市场预","text":"纳斯达克连续跌两天了,但是大跌可能性也不大,毕竟道琼斯不断创新高,主要是降息以后,对股市是有双刺激的,一个是会有更多的资金流入股市,第二个方面就是降息以后,中小公司的收入增长速度会变快,这个才是本质的问题,因为股票上涨的本质是收入增长,所以降息对股市是实打实的利好,很多人担心跟2008年一样会大跌,这不可能的事情,因为情况不一样了,2007年的时候美股市值前几名除了微软之外,其他的全部是传统产业,像通用汽车,埃克森美孚石油,花旗银行这些周期性非常强的公司,这些公司经营杠杆高,不断加息就会破产,而现在Big 7 除了特斯拉是高财务杠杆经营外,其他六个公司都是现金流非常多的非周期性行业,虽然英伟达是周期性行业,但是英伟达没有贷款,现金多得要死,而银行保险地产这些产业的已经不是美国的重要支柱产业了,美国的支柱产业已经变成互联网,软件,芯片,医药这些轻资产的产业了,轻资产行业都是大把的现金流,所以不会出现2008年那种情况了。 今天我说一下为什么英伟达涨不起来,因为违反了我的数学模型,我的数学模型也简单,就是收入增长40%以上的股票不管怎么跌,后面都会涨起来,收入增长80%以上的股票,基本上不怎么跌,每个季度都会上涨,所以选股票只做收入增长80%以上的公司,但是有几种情况不做的,一种是非龙头行业不做,SMCI我就不做,因为不是龙头,市值太小或者收入规模太小也不做,还有就是收入增长速度环比下降的时候也不能做,英伟达的问题就出在这里了,英伟达连续两个季度收入增长速度环比下降,去年四季度收入增长265%,今年一季度收入增长只有262%,收入环比下降的第一个季度,股价还会上涨的,英伟达就大涨了,二季度收入增长122%,环比增长速度继续下降,按我的数学模型,就是收入环比增长下降两个季度股价就会跌,所以英伟达二季度财报出来就跌了,二季度本来预期是280亿美元,结果是300亿美元,虽然超出市场预","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356502217212216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341990395924544,"gmtCreate":1724514375403,"gmtModify":1724514379275,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341990395924544","repostId":"2459394084","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2459394084","pubTimestamp":1723535043,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2459394084?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-13 15:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"法兴大空头:上周的市场暴跌,有一个很简单的解释","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2459394084","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"曾预见互联网泡沫崩盘的著名空头认为,近期市场大跌有个非常简单的解释——科技股乐观情绪见顶。当乐观情绪见顶并迅速消退,“我们很快就会发现是谁在裸泳。”","content":"<html><body><p>谈及上周“黑色星期一”背后的原因,主流论调无非是:对美国经济衰退的担忧、日元套利交易平仓、高估值科技股泡沫破裂、市场内部动态及策略转变……</p>\n<p>然而,在华尔街最悲观的分析师Albert Edwards看来,<strong>对于上周股市的大动荡,有一个更加简单粗暴的解释,即市场对科技股的乐观情绪触顶。</strong>Albert Edwards是著名空头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">法国兴业银行</a>的首席全球策略师,他曾成功预见到2000年互联网泡沫的崩盘。</p>\n<p>在机构最新的研报中,Edwards认为,近期市场动荡与分析师对科技公司盈利的乐观情绪达到顶峰有关。数据显示,在人工智能推动的股市上涨周期中,纳斯达克100指数的每股收益(EPS)的升势已经掉头向下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d5cc37dd-5a1a-4f88-be06-cb1bb9508a49.png\"/></p>\n<p>这位分析师警告称,当每股收益(EPS)<strong>乐观情绪开始下滑时,科技股就会失去动力,进而跌破200日移动平均线,大跌的程度将会与其此前过度上涨的幅度相当。</strong></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c392a4f0-ddfe-43c1-b912-210dfa5064a7.png\"/></p>\n<p>用MSCI科技股指数取代纳斯达克时,也可以观察到类似的情况。一旦乐观情绪达到顶峰,它往往会在相当长的一段时间内呈下降趋势,从而拖垮市场导致下跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3c7d6f8a-1868-4cbf-96a2-7aed7f2fa2b9.png\"/></p>\n<p>Edwards认为,对于美国经济衰退的担忧是近期市场崩盘的直接导火索,日元套利交易平仓等其他三个因素联合组成“暴打市场”的残忍凶手。而乐观情绪见顶是最近市场崩盘的一个更简单的解释。</p>\n<p>作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一,Edwards同样并不看好美国的经济数据。他认为,美国许多经济数据令人担忧,尤其是劳动力市场的疲弱。近期,美国失业率数据还触发了著名的“萨姆规则”,预示经济衰退。不过,“萨姆规则”提出者Claudia Sahm称,考虑到如今美国就业市场发生变化,萨姆规则有所失效,并不能证明美国经济已经陷入衰退。</p>\n<p>但<strong>在Edwards看来,标普指数追上劳动力市场(崩溃)的速度是迟早的事情。</strong>法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>研报的图表显示,历史上,美股与劳动力市场状况指数的波动通常是正向关系,二者背道而驰的脱节情况是极不寻常的。</p>\n<p>自2022年11月ChatGPT推出之后的AI热潮以来,美股一直背离劳动力市场状况。按照Edwards的观点,这种状况终将结束,标普指数将跟随劳动力市场一同崩溃。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/87594335-d6dc-4321-8642-1383d1eb0cb4.png\"/></p>\n<p>在研报的最后,Edwards又回到他的关键观点。他写道,<strong>既然每股收益乐观情绪已经达到顶峰并正在迅速消退,“我们很快就会发现是谁在裸泳。”</strong></p>\n<h2>著名大空头:美股正处于泡沫中</h2>\n<p>在过去的几个月中,Edwards一直在警告美国股市泡沫破裂的风险。7月19日,他再次强调,美国科技股的热潮可能即将结束。</p>\n<p>历史数据显示,市场崩溃前往往会出现极度集中的交易现象(比如集中交易科技股),这与2007-2008年全球金融危机和2022年熊市之前的市场情况相似。Edwards认为,没有理由相信这次会有所不同。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7706e6cf-7a6d-474b-b42d-587d6e2ae1d0.png\"/></p>\n<p>当时,<strong>Edwards认为纳斯达克的困境可能只是开始,并对支撑牛市的人工智能繁荣论点提出了质疑</strong>,这些论点曾助力美国主要股指创下历史新高。</p>\n<p>许多分析师强调“人工智能革命”将带来企业盈利的大幅增长。例如,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等大型科技公司的高估值似乎变得合理。然而,Edwards持有不同观点。他指出,过去对网络设备的大量投资曾使思科系统公司在互联网泡沫顶峰时短暂成为全球市值最高的公司,但随后其股价迅速暴跌。</p>\n<p>事实上,除了英伟达等少数公司外,人工智能尚未带来预期中的盈利增长。据媒体报道,在Edwards看来,前段时间美股上涨的真正动力似乎不是企业利润增长,而是美联储引入的充裕流动性。</p>\n<p>Edwards认为,将美联储的量化紧缩视为货币政策收紧的观点是不准确的。尽管美联储通过量化紧缩减少了债券持有量,但其货币市场操作,特别是通过美联储逆回购机制的持续放水,实际上向金融体系注入了更多资金,这抵消了流动性的流失。他进一步指出,这导致美国的货币基础在过去一年中持续扩大,这与美联储声称的从金融体系中抽走流动性的说法并不一致。</p>\n<p>今年4月,Edwards就警告到,<strong>人工智能热潮已经失控,美国股市过去五个月的上涨呈现出泡沫的所有特征。他认为,人工智能热潮加上美联储的“宽松”货币政策,已经助长了美国股市的又一个泡沫。</strong></p><div>风险提示及免责条款</div>\n<div>\n 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。\n </div>\n</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n法兴大空头:上周的市场暴跌,有一个很简单的解释\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-13 15:44 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3723811><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>谈及上周“黑色星期一”背后的原因,主流论调无非是:对美国经济衰退的担忧、日元套利交易平仓、高估值科技股泡沫破裂、市场内部动态及策略转变……\n然而,在华尔街最悲观的分析师Albert Edwards看来,对于上周股市的大动荡,有一个更加简单粗暴的解释,即市场对科技股的乐观情绪触顶。Albert Edwards是著名空头法国兴业银行的首席全球策略师,他曾成功预见到2000年互联网泡沫的崩盘。\n在机构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3723811\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f2575683-08ab-4693-bb75-e7b792a71f1a.png","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","EPS":"WisdomTree U.S. LargeCap Fund","03086":"华夏纳指","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3723811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2459394084","content_text":"谈及上周“黑色星期一”背后的原因,主流论调无非是:对美国经济衰退的担忧、日元套利交易平仓、高估值科技股泡沫破裂、市场内部动态及策略转变……\n然而,在华尔街最悲观的分析师Albert Edwards看来,对于上周股市的大动荡,有一个更加简单粗暴的解释,即市场对科技股的乐观情绪触顶。Albert Edwards是著名空头法国兴业银行的首席全球策略师,他曾成功预见到2000年互联网泡沫的崩盘。\n在机构最新的研报中,Edwards认为,近期市场动荡与分析师对科技公司盈利的乐观情绪达到顶峰有关。数据显示,在人工智能推动的股市上涨周期中,纳斯达克100指数的每股收益(EPS)的升势已经掉头向下。\n\n这位分析师警告称,当每股收益(EPS)乐观情绪开始下滑时,科技股就会失去动力,进而跌破200日移动平均线,大跌的程度将会与其此前过度上涨的幅度相当。\n\n用MSCI科技股指数取代纳斯达克时,也可以观察到类似的情况。一旦乐观情绪达到顶峰,它往往会在相当长的一段时间内呈下降趋势,从而拖垮市场导致下跌。\n\nEdwards认为,对于美国经济衰退的担忧是近期市场崩盘的直接导火索,日元套利交易平仓等其他三个因素联合组成“暴打市场”的残忍凶手。而乐观情绪见顶是最近市场崩盘的一个更简单的解释。\n作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一,Edwards同样并不看好美国的经济数据。他认为,美国许多经济数据令人担忧,尤其是劳动力市场的疲弱。近期,美国失业率数据还触发了著名的“萨姆规则”,预示经济衰退。不过,“萨姆规则”提出者Claudia Sahm称,考虑到如今美国就业市场发生变化,萨姆规则有所失效,并不能证明美国经济已经陷入衰退。\n但在Edwards看来,标普指数追上劳动力市场(崩溃)的速度是迟早的事情。法国兴业银行研报的图表显示,历史上,美股与劳动力市场状况指数的波动通常是正向关系,二者背道而驰的脱节情况是极不寻常的。\n自2022年11月ChatGPT推出之后的AI热潮以来,美股一直背离劳动力市场状况。按照Edwards的观点,这种状况终将结束,标普指数将跟随劳动力市场一同崩溃。\n\n在研报的最后,Edwards又回到他的关键观点。他写道,既然每股收益乐观情绪已经达到顶峰并正在迅速消退,“我们很快就会发现是谁在裸泳。”\n著名大空头:美股正处于泡沫中\n在过去的几个月中,Edwards一直在警告美国股市泡沫破裂的风险。7月19日,他再次强调,美国科技股的热潮可能即将结束。\n历史数据显示,市场崩溃前往往会出现极度集中的交易现象(比如集中交易科技股),这与2007-2008年全球金融危机和2022年熊市之前的市场情况相似。Edwards认为,没有理由相信这次会有所不同。\n\n当时,Edwards认为纳斯达克的困境可能只是开始,并对支撑牛市的人工智能繁荣论点提出了质疑,这些论点曾助力美国主要股指创下历史新高。\n许多分析师强调“人工智能革命”将带来企业盈利的大幅增长。例如,英伟达等大型科技公司的高估值似乎变得合理。然而,Edwards持有不同观点。他指出,过去对网络设备的大量投资曾使思科系统公司在互联网泡沫顶峰时短暂成为全球市值最高的公司,但随后其股价迅速暴跌。\n事实上,除了英伟达等少数公司外,人工智能尚未带来预期中的盈利增长。据媒体报道,在Edwards看来,前段时间美股上涨的真正动力似乎不是企业利润增长,而是美联储引入的充裕流动性。\nEdwards认为,将美联储的量化紧缩视为货币政策收紧的观点是不准确的。尽管美联储通过量化紧缩减少了债券持有量,但其货币市场操作,特别是通过美联储逆回购机制的持续放水,实际上向金融体系注入了更多资金,这抵消了流动性的流失。他进一步指出,这导致美国的货币基础在过去一年中持续扩大,这与美联储声称的从金融体系中抽走流动性的说法并不一致。\n今年4月,Edwards就警告到,人工智能热潮已经失控,美国股市过去五个月的上涨呈现出泡沫的所有特征。他认为,人工智能热潮加上美联储的“宽松”货币政策,已经助长了美国股市的又一个泡沫。风险提示及免责条款\n\n 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341503554912328,"gmtCreate":1724415412338,"gmtModify":1724415413837,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341503554912328","repostId":"1167725620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167725620","pubTimestamp":1724392765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167725620?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-23 13:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"看涨信号闪现!研究公司:美股明年或现两位数涨幅","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167725620","media":"金十数据","summary":"美股刚刚闪现出一个看涨的技术指标,表明标普500指数明年将有两位数的涨幅。但从那时起,标普500指数反弹了近10%,距离历史高点仅差1%。克利索德表示,他希望在三个月内看到至少五次广度推力信号闪现,以确定股市未来还有更多上涨空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美股刚刚闪现出一个看涨的技术指标,表明标普500指数(SPX)明年将有两位数的涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈德-戴维斯研究公司(Ned Davis Research)策略师埃德-克利索德(Ed Clissold)周三撰文称,继8月初的抛售之后,<strong>股市已进入筑底过程的第四阶段</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在7月份就业报告疲软、日元套利交易平仓、巴菲特减持苹果股份等一系列风险事件的影响下,8月初美股下跌超过5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但从那时起,标普500指数反弹了近10%,距离历史高点仅差1%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利索德解释说:“新的广度推力信号确认市场正处于筑底过程的第四步,并已越过近期的回调。股市筑底的四个阶段是超卖、反弹、回测和广度推力。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">股市很少会在极短时间内从超卖摇摆到超买,一旦迅速出现这种情况,那么就形成罕见的广度推力信号。8月19日,广度推力信号闪现,即股市从极少数股票参与上涨迅速过渡到许多股票同时走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利索德说:“这是个看涨信号的理由是,如果少数股票陷入困境,其他股票就会推动热门股指走高。重大走势的开端往往以广度推力信号为标志,即极高比例的股票共同反弹。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一,当NDR内部多重市值股票系列(Multi-Cap Equity Series)中超过90%的股票跳涨至10日移动均线以上时,广度推力“爆发”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这样的情况自1980年以来共发生过42次,且股市在随后一年内有95%的时间上涨,平均涨幅为10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果从目前的水平上涨,<strong>标普500指数将略高于6100点</strong>,这几乎与一位华尔街多头预测的2025年目标一致。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8月8日,股市出现了“11:1的上涨日”,即上涨股票的成交量是下跌股票累计成交量的11倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利索德表示,他希望在三个月内看到至少五次广度推力信号闪现,以确定股市未来还有更多上涨空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该报告称,自7月16日以来,迄今已有三次信号闪烁,但即使到10月中旬不能再看到两次信号闪烁,由于预期利率会下降,股市也可能处于有利位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利索德说:“我们可能得不到五次广度推力信号,但其他趋势指标正在转向看涨。利率下降是另一个对多头有利的因素。”</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n看涨信号闪现!研究公司:美股明年或现两位数涨幅\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-23 13:59 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/146554><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股刚刚闪现出一个看涨的技术指标,表明标普500指数(SPX)明年将有两位数的涨幅。奈德-戴维斯研究公司(Ned Davis Research)策略师埃德-克利索德(Ed Clissold)周三撰文称,继8月初的抛售之后,股市已进入筑底过程的第四阶段。在7月份就业报告疲软、日元套利交易平仓、巴菲特减持苹果股份等一系列风险事件的影响下,8月初美股下跌超过5%。但从那时起,标普500指数反弹了近10%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/146554\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/146554","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167725620","content_text":"美股刚刚闪现出一个看涨的技术指标,表明标普500指数(SPX)明年将有两位数的涨幅。奈德-戴维斯研究公司(Ned Davis Research)策略师埃德-克利索德(Ed Clissold)周三撰文称,继8月初的抛售之后,股市已进入筑底过程的第四阶段。在7月份就业报告疲软、日元套利交易平仓、巴菲特减持苹果股份等一系列风险事件的影响下,8月初美股下跌超过5%。但从那时起,标普500指数反弹了近10%,距离历史高点仅差1%。克利索德解释说:“新的广度推力信号确认市场正处于筑底过程的第四步,并已越过近期的回调。股市筑底的四个阶段是超卖、反弹、回测和广度推力。”股市很少会在极短时间内从超卖摇摆到超买,一旦迅速出现这种情况,那么就形成罕见的广度推力信号。8月19日,广度推力信号闪现,即股市从极少数股票参与上涨迅速过渡到许多股票同时走高。克利索德说:“这是个看涨信号的理由是,如果少数股票陷入困境,其他股票就会推动热门股指走高。重大走势的开端往往以广度推力信号为标志,即极高比例的股票共同反弹。”周一,当NDR内部多重市值股票系列(Multi-Cap Equity Series)中超过90%的股票跳涨至10日移动均线以上时,广度推力“爆发”。这样的情况自1980年以来共发生过42次,且股市在随后一年内有95%的时间上涨,平均涨幅为10%。如果从目前的水平上涨,标普500指数将略高于6100点,这几乎与一位华尔街多头预测的2025年目标一致。8月8日,股市出现了“11:1的上涨日”,即上涨股票的成交量是下跌股票累计成交量的11倍。克利索德表示,他希望在三个月内看到至少五次广度推力信号闪现,以确定股市未来还有更多上涨空间。该报告称,自7月16日以来,迄今已有三次信号闪烁,但即使到10月中旬不能再看到两次信号闪烁,由于预期利率会下降,股市也可能处于有利位置。克利索德说:“我们可能得不到五次广度推力信号,但其他趋势指标正在转向看涨。利率下降是另一个对多头有利的因素。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334989701017688,"gmtCreate":1722817639997,"gmtModify":1722817641373,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334989701017688","repostId":"2456010932","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456010932","pubTimestamp":1722737129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2456010932?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-04 10:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新AI芯片推迟上市 这对英伟达(NVDA.US)影响有多大?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456010932","media":"智通财经网","summary":"据分析师预测,B200芯片延迟发布后,售价可能定为3万到4万美元之间,截至2025年1月的季度发货量将达到约32500块,营收贡献将达到30亿美元,占当季总预期收入的9%。","content":"<html><body><div> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)推迟出货B200,对营收影响几何?</p><p>据科技媒体The Information报道,英伟达向其客户表示,新款Blackwell B200芯片将延迟发布三个月或更长时间,批量出货或延迟至明年Q1。</p><p>Blackwell芯片原计划于2024年10月开始批量生产,若因延期而推迟至2025年4月,将直接影响英伟达的季度收益。对此,英伟达回应媒体称,对Hopper芯片的强劲需求和Blackwell芯片的生产计划并未改变。</p><p>英伟达发言人表示:</p><p>“正如我们之前所说,Hopper的需求非常强劲。大规模的Blackwell采样工作已经完成,下半年的生产将按计划进行。除此之外,我们不对传言发表评论。”</p><p><strong>这意味着,即使B200延迟上市,对英伟达营收的影响程度可能不会特别大,因为Hopper芯片的市场需求依然旺盛。</strong></p><p>目前,Blackwell GPU架构已知的芯片款式有B100、B200和GB200超级芯片三类。如果B200芯片延迟发布,据Mizuho分析师Vijay Rakesh估算,其售价可能定为3万到4万美元之间,GB200可能定价在5万到7万美元之间。</p><p>瑞银分析师Timothy Arcuri则预测,到截至2025年1月的季度中,B200和GB200的发货量将分别达到约32500块和43400块,但仅占当季所有芯片发货量的7%,大多数发货的仍是Hopper芯片。</p><p><strong>结合两位分析师的估算,B200产品明年1月当季的营收贡献将达到30亿美元,占当季总预期收入(345亿美元)的9%。</strong></p><p>对英伟达的客户来说,芯片推迟可能会加剧其对收货时点的担忧。据悉,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和Facebook母公司Meta在内的科技巨头二季度的资本支出总计近600亿美元,同比增长三分之二,其中很大一部分流向了英伟达。</p><p>the Information还报道称,Meta现已定下价值至少100亿美元的订单,而微软在近几周内将其订单规模增加了20%,并计划在2025年Q1之前为OpenAI准备好55000-65000块GB200芯片。</p><p>此外,设计缺陷还将影响英伟达NVLink服务器机架的生产和交付,因为从事服务器工作的公司必须等待新的芯片样品,然后才能最终确定服务器机架设计。</p><p>不过,仍有观点指出,英伟达在销售和营收方面的小幅波动不太可能改变其在华尔街的受欢迎程度。截至周五,英伟达股价收于107美元,其按今年预期盈利计算的市盈率为40倍,明年预期市盈率为30倍,仍处于高位。</p><p><strong>本文转自“华尔街见闻”;智通财经编辑:陈筱亦</strong></p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新AI芯片推迟上市 这对英伟达(NVDA.US)影响有多大?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-04 10:05 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1159656.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英伟达(NVDA.US)推迟出货B200,对营收影响几何?据科技媒体The Information报道,英伟达向其客户表示,新款Blackwell B200芯片将延迟发布三个月或更长时间,批量出货或延迟至明年Q1。Blackwell芯片原计划于2024年10月开始批量生产,若因延期而推迟至2025年4月,将直接影响英伟达的季度收益。对此,英伟达回应媒体称,对Hopper芯片的强劲需求和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1159656.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20240804/20240804100540_47210.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) 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ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson 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Arcuri则预测,到截至2025年1月的季度中,B200和GB200的发货量将分别达到约32500块和43400块,但仅占当季所有芯片发货量的7%,大多数发货的仍是Hopper芯片。结合两位分析师的估算,B200产品明年1月当季的营收贡献将达到30亿美元,占当季总预期收入(345亿美元)的9%。对英伟达的客户来说,芯片推迟可能会加剧其对收货时点的担忧。据悉,包括谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、微软和Facebook母公司Meta在内的科技巨头二季度的资本支出总计近600亿美元,同比增长三分之二,其中很大一部分流向了英伟达。the Information还报道称,Meta现已定下价值至少100亿美元的订单,而微软在近几周内将其订单规模增加了20%,并计划在2025年Q1之前为OpenAI准备好55000-65000块GB200芯片。此外,设计缺陷还将影响英伟达NVLink服务器机架的生产和交付,因为从事服务器工作的公司必须等待新的芯片样品,然后才能最终确定服务器机架设计。不过,仍有观点指出,英伟达在销售和营收方面的小幅波动不太可能改变其在华尔街的受欢迎程度。截至周五,英伟达股价收于107美元,其按今年预期盈利计算的市盈率为40倍,明年预期市盈率为30倍,仍处于高位。本文转自“华尔街见闻”;智通财经编辑:陈筱亦","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334039563116648,"gmtCreate":1722585569469,"gmtModify":1722585574089,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573325047854143","authorIdStr":"3573325047854143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334039563116648","repostId":"333980289744936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":333980289744936,"gmtCreate":1722571132257,"gmtModify":1722579023865,"author":{"id":"3458349567571181","authorId":"3458349567571181","name":"马虎恶魔号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5309b4545d61bcba8ee06c42836bf26f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458349567571181","authorIdStr":"3458349567571181"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ </a> 我想跟大家说一下,就是说为什么咱们现在的情况是要 我不知道大家有没有经历过当时特朗普最疯狂的那个时代,那个时代就是和现在一样往上去涨涨到爆,第2天全要砸下来。 就是像猴子一样,朝三暮四。但是这种情况对于资本大厂商来说是一个非常好的年代。为什么从最根本的话它会暴涨?是因为他正确掌握了情绪。在情绪里面他可以做杠杆去把这个拉得很高,吸进更多的人。但是人吸进之后,因为每股的t+0的机制可以立刻抛货,第2天把尾盘的货再抛掉。这样的话情绪就会砸到一个冰点,跟单人就会出逃。这个就是侯市战略。所以我建议大家去复盘一下,19年的时候特朗普最疯狂的贸易战。当时在底部吸筹的人,把战线拉长得到了什么我希望大家去看历史因为历史,出奇的相似。你能做到的就是一定要在低价把握上优质的资源。只要你能在这个震荡期收到你想要的筹码。你就是成功的不要看现在的浮亏。大家试想,如果2020年没有covid这个事儿,它的市值又会向怎么样方向发展,而且就算有这个问题。他还是有强烈的支撑。这也就是我为什么认为在这个震荡里面,很多人吸收了很多的筹码的原因。投资优质公司是最主要的总领思路。 但是问题是真正的思路非常简单就是资本家大货主大吵架赚不赚到钱?他们怎么才能赚得更多! 我希望可以看到我文章的这些粉丝,这些朋友能去理解主旨意思。 去摒弃原有的思维。 去像那些老坏逼大抄家。一样去思考这个市场。 然后把胆儿练得更大 我是马虎恶魔号 如果你能理解我的思维,就是我身边的一员 Good luck.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ </a> 我想跟大家说一下,就是说为什么咱们现在的情况是要 我不知道大家有没有经历过当时特朗普最疯狂的那个时代,那个时代就是和现在一样往上去涨涨到爆,第2天全要砸下来。 就是像猴子一样,朝三暮四。但是这种情况对于资本大厂商来说是一个非常好的年代。为什么从最根本的话它会暴涨?是因为他正确掌握了情绪。在情绪里面他可以做杠杆去把这个拉得很高,吸进更多的人。但是人吸进之后,因为每股的t+0的机制可以立刻抛货,第2天把尾盘的货再抛掉。这样的话情绪就会砸到一个冰点,跟单人就会出逃。这个就是侯市战略。所以我建议大家去复盘一下,19年的时候特朗普最疯狂的贸易战。当时在底部吸筹的人,把战线拉长得到了什么我希望大家去看历史因为历史,出奇的相似。你能做到的就是一定要在低价把握上优质的资源。只要你能在这个震荡期收到你想要的筹码。你就是成功的不要看现在的浮亏。大家试想,如果2020年没有covid这个事儿,它的市值又会向怎么样方向发展,而且就算有这个问题。他还是有强烈的支撑。这也就是我为什么认为在这个震荡里面,很多人吸收了很多的筹码的原因。投资优质公司是最主要的总领思路。 但是问题是真正的思路非常简单就是资本家大货主大吵架赚不赚到钱?他们怎么才能赚得更多! 我希望可以看到我文章的这些粉丝,这些朋友能去理解主旨意思。 去摒弃原有的思维。 去像那些老坏逼大抄家。一样去思考这个市场。 然后把胆儿练得更大 我是马虎恶魔号 如果你能理解我的思维,就是我身边的一员 Good luck.","text":"$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ 我想跟大家说一下,就是说为什么咱们现在的情况是要 我不知道大家有没有经历过当时特朗普最疯狂的那个时代,那个时代就是和现在一样往上去涨涨到爆,第2天全要砸下来。 就是像猴子一样,朝三暮四。但是这种情况对于资本大厂商来说是一个非常好的年代。为什么从最根本的话它会暴涨?是因为他正确掌握了情绪。在情绪里面他可以做杠杆去把这个拉得很高,吸进更多的人。但是人吸进之后,因为每股的t+0的机制可以立刻抛货,第2天把尾盘的货再抛掉。这样的话情绪就会砸到一个冰点,跟单人就会出逃。这个就是侯市战略。所以我建议大家去复盘一下,19年的时候特朗普最疯狂的贸易战。当时在底部吸筹的人,把战线拉长得到了什么我希望大家去看历史因为历史,出奇的相似。你能做到的就是一定要在低价把握上优质的资源。只要你能在这个震荡期收到你想要的筹码。你就是成功的不要看现在的浮亏。大家试想,如果2020年没有covid这个事儿,它的市值又会向怎么样方向发展,而且就算有这个问题。他还是有强烈的支撑。这也就是我为什么认为在这个震荡里面,很多人吸收了很多的筹码的原因。投资优质公司是最主要的总领思路。 但是问题是真正的思路非常简单就是资本家大货主大吵架赚不赚到钱?他们怎么才能赚得更多! 我希望可以看到我文章的这些粉丝,这些朋友能去理解主旨意思。 去摒弃原有的思维。 去像那些老坏逼大抄家。一样去思考这个市场。 然后把胆儿练得更大 我是马虎恶魔号 如果你能理解我的思维,就是我身边的一员 Good luck.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fb0304d0353f441579c65cff837d5","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333980289744936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}