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2021-11-24

I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.

Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?

2021-12-15

Agree

U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%

2021-10-29

I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.

Apple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion

2021-12-15

Like

PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal

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:[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607486241","repostId":"1153017502","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607870979,"gmtCreate":1639528627062,"gmtModify":1639528627062,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607870979","repostId":"1101216534","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874138396,"gmtCreate":1637740755043,"gmtModify":1637740892058,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.&nbsp;","listText":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.&nbsp;","text":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874138396","repostId":"1158359024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158359024","pubTimestamp":1637714626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158359024?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 08:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158359024","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.That said, Tigress Financi","content":"<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p>\n<p>Apple stock&nbsp;made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p>\n<p>That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p>\n<p><b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p>\n<p>From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently&nbsp;in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p>\n<p>All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of&nbsp;strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p>\n<p><b>What history says</b></p>\n<p>History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p>\n<p>The Apple Maven has explained&nbsp;that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p>\n<p>Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p>\n<p>I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p>\n<p>I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-24 08:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?\nApple stock made new all-time highs in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158359024","content_text":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?\nApple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.\nFigure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.\nThat said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?\nWhat AAPL at $200 means\nFrom a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.\nAll the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.\nWhat history says\nHistory does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.\nThe Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.\nInstead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.\nFigure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.\nI would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854223037,"gmtCreate":1635463947889,"gmtModify":1635463947969,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.&nbsp;","listText":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.&nbsp;","text":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854223037","repostId":"1178207364","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":874138396,"gmtCreate":1637740755043,"gmtModify":1637740892058,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.&nbsp;","listText":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.&nbsp;","text":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874138396","repostId":"1158359024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158359024","pubTimestamp":1637714626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158359024?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 08:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158359024","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.That said, Tigress Financi","content":"<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p>\n<p>Apple stock&nbsp;made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p>\n<p>That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p>\n<p><b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p>\n<p>From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently&nbsp;in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p>\n<p>All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of&nbsp;strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p>\n<p><b>What history says</b></p>\n<p>History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p>\n<p>The Apple Maven has explained&nbsp;that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p>\n<p>Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p>\n<p>I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p>\n<p>I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-24 08:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?\nApple stock made new all-time highs in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158359024","content_text":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?\nApple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.\nFigure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.\nThat said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?\nWhat AAPL at $200 means\nFrom a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.\nAll the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.\nWhat history says\nHistory does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.\nThe Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.\nInstead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.\nFigure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.\nI would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607486241,"gmtCreate":1639579181245,"gmtModify":1639579211529,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree&nbsp;","listText":"Agree&nbsp;","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607486241","repostId":"1153017502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153017502","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639578803,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153017502?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 22:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153017502","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%","content":"<p>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&amp;P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.</p>\n<p>All eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.</p>\n<p>Specifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.</p>\n<p>\"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.</p>\n<p>Other pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>\"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.</p>\n<p>\"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.</p>\n<p>A number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.</p>\n<p>\"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"</p>\n<p>\"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-15 22:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&amp;P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.</p>\n<p>All eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.</p>\n<p>Specifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.</p>\n<p>\"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.</p>\n<p>Other pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>\"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.</p>\n<p>\"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.</p>\n<p>A number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.</p>\n<p>\"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"</p>\n<p>\"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153017502","content_text":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.\nAll eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.\nSpecifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.\n\"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.\nOther pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.\n\"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.\n\"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.\nA number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.\n\"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"\n\"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854223037,"gmtCreate":1635463947889,"gmtModify":1635463947969,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.&nbsp;","listText":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.&nbsp;","text":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854223037","repostId":"1178207364","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178207364","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635460531,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178207364?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 06:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178207364","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.\"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southe","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday,&nbsp;which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints&nbsp;on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.</p>\n<p>Apple fell 3.7% in extended trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3b61df2acaab5e8ff56c1872221c60\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>\"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.</p>\n<p>However, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29%&nbsp;and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>Here's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>EPS:</b>&nbsp;$1.24 vs. $1.24&nbsp;estimated</li>\n <li><b>Revenue:</b>&nbsp;$83.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;&nbsp;vs.&nbsp;$84.85&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 29% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>iPhone revenue:</b>&nbsp;$38.87&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $41.51&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 47% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>Services revenue:</b>&nbsp;$18.28&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $17.64&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 25.6% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>Other Products revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.33&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>Mac revenue:</b>&nbsp;$9.18&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>iPad revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.25&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>Gross margin:</b>&nbsp;42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated</li>\n</ul>\n<p>iPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.</p>\n<p>Apple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.</p>\n<p>Apple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>The results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Apple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>Apple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com&nbsp;forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.</p>\n<p>Apple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.</p>\n<p><b>MISSES</b></p>\n<p>Apple missed expectations in two key categories.</p>\n<p>Apple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>Cook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.</p>\n<p>\"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.</p>\n<p>The company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>Other segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>The company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.</p>\n<p>\"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.</p>\n<p>Another bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.</p>\n<p>The company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-29 06:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday,&nbsp;which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints&nbsp;on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.</p>\n<p>Apple fell 3.7% in extended trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3b61df2acaab5e8ff56c1872221c60\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>\"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.</p>\n<p>However, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29%&nbsp;and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>Here's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>EPS:</b>&nbsp;$1.24 vs. $1.24&nbsp;estimated</li>\n <li><b>Revenue:</b>&nbsp;$83.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;&nbsp;vs.&nbsp;$84.85&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 29% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>iPhone revenue:</b>&nbsp;$38.87&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $41.51&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 47% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>Services revenue:</b>&nbsp;$18.28&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $17.64&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 25.6% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>Other Products revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.33&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>Mac revenue:</b>&nbsp;$9.18&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>iPad revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.25&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year</li>\n <li><b>Gross margin:</b>&nbsp;42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated</li>\n</ul>\n<p>iPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.</p>\n<p>Apple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.</p>\n<p>Apple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>The results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Apple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>Apple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com&nbsp;forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.</p>\n<p>Apple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.</p>\n<p><b>MISSES</b></p>\n<p>Apple missed expectations in two key categories.</p>\n<p>Apple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>Cook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.</p>\n<p>\"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.</p>\n<p>The company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>Other segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>The company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.</p>\n<p>\"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.</p>\n<p>Another bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.</p>\n<p>The company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178207364","content_text":"Apple revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.\nApple fell 3.7% in extended trading.\n\n\"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.\nHowever, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29% and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.\nHere's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:\n\nEPS: $1.24 vs. $1.24 estimated\nRevenue: $83.36 billion  vs. $84.85 billion estimated, up 29% year-over-year\niPhone revenue: $38.87 billion vs. $41.51 billion estimated, up 47% year-over-year\nServices revenue: $18.28 billion vs. $17.64 billion estimated, up 25.6% year-over-year\nOther Products revenue: $8.79 billion vs. $9.33 billion estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year\nMac revenue: $9.18 billion vs. $9.23 billion estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year\niPad revenue: $8.25 billion vs. $7.23 billion estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year\nGross margin: 42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated\n\niPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.\nApple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.\nApple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nThe results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.\nApple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.\nApple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.\nApple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.\nMISSES\nApple missed expectations in two key categories.\nApple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nCook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.\n\"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.\nThe company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nOther segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nThe company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.\n\"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.\nAnother bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.\nThe company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607870979,"gmtCreate":1639528627062,"gmtModify":1639528627062,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607870979","repostId":"1101216534","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101216534","pubTimestamp":1639525158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101216534?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101216534","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>PayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.</li>\n <li>The company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.</li>\n <li>I believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.</li>\n <li>Advancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.</li>\n</ul>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>PayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>PayPal's Underperformance</b></p>\n<p>In order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>PYPL return on invested capital</p>\n<p>Data by YCharts</p>\n<p>One of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Transaction And Credit Losses</b></p>\n<p>From my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>As you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>For this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>In order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>For this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&amp;A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.</p>\n<p>My final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>I thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>As you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>FinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind</b></p>\n<p>When PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Between China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Why I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>To conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.</p>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-15 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.\nThe company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101216534","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.\nThe company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.\nI believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.\nAdvancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.\n\n\n\nInvestment Thesis\nPayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.\n\nPayPal's Underperformance\nIn order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.\n\nPYPL return on invested capital\nData by YCharts\nOne of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.\n\nTransaction And Credit Losses\nFrom my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.\n\nAs you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.\n\nFor this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.\n\nValuation\nIn order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).\n\nFor this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.\nMy final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.\n\nI thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.\n\nAs you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.\n\nFinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind\nWhen PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.\n\nBetween China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.\n\n\nWhy I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts\nTo conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}