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荷马先生
01-13
商汤是压住买入韭菜的石头,也是不断融资和减持的吸血鬼
当大模型公司扎堆上市,港股二次AI定价开启:谁是AI新时代的"压舱石"?
荷马先生
01-09
科学是反复论证
目标反复横跳!特斯拉FSD承诺再度泡汤,马斯克又提新条件
荷马先生
2025-12-26
不影响华尔街想炒作的步伐
特斯拉四季度交付量或同比环比双双下滑 有消息称将低于44万辆
荷马先生
2025-12-18
反指
异动解读 | 摩根士丹利上调目标价,Lumentum盘中大涨6.88%
荷马先生
2025-12-18
共同做局骗股市资金
市场消息:特朗普媒体科技集团将与TAE科技进行全股票交易合并
荷马先生
2025-12-17
都是大跌
美光今日盘后公布业绩:华尔街希望这家存储芯片制造商交出怎样的答卷?
荷马先生
2025-12-17
没有资金愿意投入数据中心项目
甲骨文100亿美元数据中心融资受阻,甲骨文:仍按计划进行,推进情况合预期
荷马先生
2025-12-11
华尔街杀猪骗筹码
抱歉,原内容已删除
荷马先生
2025-12-11
161亿营收
抱歉,原内容已删除
荷马先生
2025-12-01
喜新厌旧
软银CEO孙正义:我不想出售一股英伟达的股份,但我需要资金投资于OpenAI及我们的机会
荷马先生
2025-11-26
打脸
申万宏源维持谷歌-A买入评级 目标价386美元
荷马先生
2025-11-25
空头为了做空赚钱,自以为像对待那些小型公司那样喊喊嘴巴就能成功,而且对企业经营细节陌生得令人惊讶,简直是想赚钱疯狂的意淫
反击大空头!英伟达致信华尔街分析师,反驳会计丑闻等指控
荷马先生
2025-11-25
Google说还没有下单,急什么急,没出息
一文读懂“谷歌链”:AI全栈式创新,TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络
荷马先生
2025-11-25
竞争中也有合作
美银:OpenAI造成两难局面,给科技巨头带来冲击
荷马先生
2025-11-25
做空的来争夺话语权了
阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱
荷马先生
2025-11-25
认同产业分析师
知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论:DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张
荷马先生
2025-11-21
人家赖得搭理你还卖翘,浪费生命时间,马斯克连巴菲特都看不起,认为一生不为社会创造价值。
段永平:我不想跟马斯克做朋友,但投资特斯拉还是可以的
荷马先生
2025-11-21
没有独立分析能力,嚼他人残渣蔬菜,不配引领投资
泉果基金刚登峰:需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会
荷马先生
2025-11-21
作者明显不懂企业财务,不懂企业账务处理规则流程,更不懂金融运作模式,典型老登思维偏见先入为主
英伟达财报后走势“诡异”,6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘?
荷马先生
2025-11-20
老登看不懂ai,也就看不清ai未来
没被英伟达财报说服?“大空头”继续炮轰AI:真实需求“少得可笑”
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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13:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"当大模型公司扎堆上市,港股二次AI定价开启:谁是AI新时代的\"压舱石\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603713965","media":"格隆汇","summary":"商汤所代表的全栈模式的价值正在被重新发现","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>商汤所代表的全栈模式的价值正在被重新发现</p></blockquote><p>在近期,AI相关资产正在被全球资本以前所未有的密度重新定价。</p><p>国产AI芯片"四小龙"密集推进资本化进程,市场表现大超预期。</p><p>几乎在同一时间,中国市场也出现了另一条清晰的信号线。智谱、MiniMax等大模型公司相继在港交所上市,AI企业开始成规模地站到港股资本市场面前。这意味着港股市场将从"仅有商汤一家纯正AI标的"进入一个"AI公司同台竞技"的新阶段。</p><p><strong>在越来越多的AI公司面前,资本市场对AI的认知也在悄然发生转变。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3355124645\">一、逻辑切换:关于AI企业,港股亟需更新价值评估标准</h2><p>这些事件本身并不复杂,但它们叠加在一起,却让投资者的价值判断变得困难起来。</p><p>一方面,AI的长期想象空间十分具备吸引力;但另一方面,原有的投资直觉判断正在失效。</p><p>首先,是对AI价值来源的重新审视。MiniMax的2026年预期市销率大约在50-60倍左右;而基于同样的计算标准,商汤目前的交易倍数仅为13倍。未来是否会发生投资者定价的变化导致这一数字变化?</p><p>因此,市场讨论迅速分化:AI的价值,究竟来自模型本身、应用层产品,还是更底层的系统整合能力?</p><p>其次,是港股市场供给结构的实质性变化。</p><p>过去,投资AI很大程度上是投资其技术的"稀缺性"。市场可以用相对粗线条的方式下注未来,用"有没有AI"、"是不是行业代表"来完成判断。</p><p>当现在,港股AI板块第一次出现了"多路径同时接受定价"的局面。不同公司在模型研发、应用切入点、商业化节奏上的差异,被同步放大。AI投资开始具备横向比较的现实基础。</p><p>在这样的背景下,技术的光环逐渐让位于商业的实绩、新的"价值坐标系"开始浮现,从对单一技术节点的关注,升级为对<strong>全栈能力、商业模式韧性与可持续增长潜力</strong>的系统性评判。</p><p>当前涌入资本市场的AI公司,大致可分为三种技术路径与商业模式,它们面临着截然不同的机遇与挑战:</p><p><strong>1、纯大模型公司:</strong></p><p>它们呈现出典型的"三高"特征:高研发投入、高算力依赖、高商业化不确定性。优势是技术上限高,一旦突破可能通吃上下游。但挑战同样巨大:<strong>其严重依赖外购芯片或者云服务,收入增长要与恐怖的算力成本赛跑,盈利周期长,且极易陷入同质化价格战。</strong></p><p>招商证券的报告指出,这类公司70-80%的研发投入都用于支付算力服务费,财务表现上普遍呈现"收入高增长,亏损同步扩大"的特征。</p><p>根据招商证券研究所,智谱2025年上半年收入达1.91亿元人民币,同比增长325%;MiniMax2025年前三季度收入为5340万美元(约3.7亿元人民币),同比增长175%。两家公司虽然都保持高速增长,但亏损也在扩大,最新报告期亏损分别为17.6亿元人民币和1.9亿美元。</p><p><strong>2、应用型/Agent型公司:</strong></p><p>凭借直接面向用户的产品,它们能够快速积累用户和数据,增长曲线陡峭,故事情感性强。Manus就是典型代表,通过自动筛选简历、生成旅行攻略等具体应用场景快速打开市场。</p><p>但隐患在于,其商业模式本质是"用模型换用户",护城河较浅,可替代性强,极易面临巨头降维打击或行业内的激烈竞争,用户获取成本高企与留存难题是长期挑战。</p><p><strong>3、平台/系统型公司:构建"智能操作系统"。</strong></p><p>这类公司致力于打造"算力基础设施-大模型研发-行业应用"的全栈式能力。它们不满足于只做一环,而是要打通从底层算力调度、模型训练到上层应用落地的全链路。其商业模式更重,但盈利弹性更高、想象空间也更大,兼具技术深度与生态广度。</p><p>例如,商汤科技提出的"大装置-大模型-应用"三位一体战略正是这一路径的代表。这种模式的挑战在于对资金、技术、生态运营能力要求极高,需要极强的战略耐性和执行力。</p><p>简而言之,如果从单点爆发力看,纯模型公司和应用型公司更容易制造短期行情;但<strong>如果从板块稳定性、资本可持续投入与长期估值锚定能力看,真正能够承担"压舱石"角色的,只可能是具备全栈能力的平台/系统型公司。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3542209050\">二、为什么是商汤:生态产业链"链主",具备全栈能力与AI新时代的压舱石</h2><p>商汤被认为是港股AI板块"压舱石",除了上述原因,还具备两方面核心优势。</p><p>其一,是其构建的全栈能力已成为行业共性需求,<strong>无论是大模型公司,还是应用层企业,在基础设施与商业化落地环节均难以绕开商汤所形成的生态体系;</strong></p><p>其二,作为国内极少数的"双周期"企业,其从AI 1.0时代稳健步入AI 2.0时代的完整经验,构成了其应对不确定性的独特壁垒。</p><p>商汤提出的"大装置-大模型-应用"的"三位一体"战略是关键。其核心在于构建一个从底层算力调度、模型研发到上层行业应用的高效闭环。</p><p><strong>1、算力是基石:不只是成本中心,更是效率引擎</strong></p><p>商汤大装置(SenseCore)的本质,是一个专为AI原生设计的超大规模计算平台。截至2025年,商汤大装置的总算力达到约2.5万 PetaFLOPS。</p><p>但它的价值不仅仅在于其庞大的算力规模。</p><p>当前登陆资本市场的国产GPU企业,包括壁仞科技、摩尔线程、沐曦股份还是天数智芯,均与商汤保持着长期、稳定的合作关系。双方围绕"算力供给—算法需求"形成了技术互补、场景互补的协同机制。</p><p>这意味着,在国产算力生态不断扩张的过程中,商汤并不是被动接受者,而是一个<strong>难以被绕开的生态产业链"链主"。</strong></p><p>尤其是,在国产芯片异构混训这一行业难题上,商汤大装置在国产芯片异构混调上,其实现了约5000卡规模的月级稳定运行,集群利用率达80%,异构训练效率接近同构的95%。这意味着商汤在享受国产化供应链安全的同时,并未牺牲掉太多的计算效率,这在当前地缘政治背景下构成了独特的竞争优势。</p><p><strong>更重要的是,大装置不仅是支撑内部研发的成本中心,更是可对外服务的利润中心。</strong>此外, 基于此,商汤得以洞察不同行业客户最前沿的模型训练与推理需求,为其自身的大模型研发提供了珍贵的数据反馈和场景验证。</p><p><strong>2、大模型是核心,以多模态融合引领性能突破</strong></p><p>基于大装置提供的强大算力底座,商汤的"日日新"大模型系列得以快速迭代。</p><p>商汤大模型的技术路径核心特征是坚定地走向多模态深度融合。在权威大模型评测基准SuperCLUE发布《中文多模态视觉语言模型测评基准12月报告》显示,商汤日日新V6.5位列国内第一,斩获金牌,并在视觉推理维度上拿下国内最高分。</p><p><strong>3、实行"AI之道在于百姓之日用"的落地应用策略,商业化渗透兼顾广度与深度</strong></p><p>商汤集团层面的商业化路径可概括为"一基两翼":以"日日新"大模型为基石,分别提供"生产力工具"和"交互工具"。这一布局涵盖了B端和C端,形成了多元化的收入结构。目前,商汤已覆盖了具身智能、视频生成、AI4S等新兴产业,以及金融、互联网、教育等传统行业,包括银河通用、众擎机器人等具身智能企业,头部的有银行,领先的互联网科技公司、三大运营商等都是商汤的客户。</p><p>值得一提的是,商汤通过"1+X"组织战略的推进,快速释放了AI在垂直行业的商业化潜力,各"X"创新业务成立独立子公司,市场化运营和融资。据市场公开消息和不完全统计,目前还在商汤集团体系内的"X业务",如AI医疗善萃获得2轮融资、AI零售善惠获得由金沙江创投领投的首轮融资。</p><p>这种"航母舰队"式的布局,使商汤能够在保持核心大模型专注度的同时,广泛卡位未来高潜力赛道。</p><p>在AI这场马拉松中,商汤科技作为AI生产力跃迁的关键推动者,其大装置提供的算力服务、日日新大模型的技术赋能、以及跨行业解决方案的经验积累,正成为整个AI产业发展的底层支撑。</p><p>这比追逐任何一个短期热点都更有可能走得更稳、更远,也为投资者提供了一种新的价值评估视角。</p><h2 id=\"id_1940014236\">三、长期主义穿越了几个不可复制的周期:行业发展周期、经济周期和黑天鹅事件</h2><p>在近年来复杂多变的宏观环境下,得益于全栈布局,商汤科技展现了出色的风险应对能力。面对芯片管制、技术封锁等地缘政治挑战,商汤<strong>跨越完整行业发展周期依然保持稳健发展。这正是资本市场在不确定性中最为看重的品质。</strong></p><p>商汤的全栈布局能力,在实践中展现出三重协同效应,这是其同时在AI 1.0时代、AI 2.0时代保持领先的关键。</p><p><strong>首先,全栈布局放大了研发与商业化的飞轮效应。</strong></p><p>大装置为模型研发提供算力保障,强大的模型能力吸引更多应用场景客户,海量的应用数据又反哺模型优化,同时客户的真实需求指引着算力基础设施的演进方向。</p><p>此外,这个闭环使得商汤不必过度依赖单一技术路线或商业模式,无论产业热点如何轮动,其全栈布局都能确保自身处于价值传导链的核心位置。</p><p><strong>其次,是抗风险能力的系统化提升。</strong></p><p>当模型技术路线变迁时,商汤具备快速迭代的工程化能力;当全球技术竞争加剧时,其在中国市场的深厚积累构成了基本盘。</p><p>与纯应用公司相比,商汤的技术底座提供了更深的护城河与灵活性。当应用场景变化时,商汤拥有多行业积累的迁移经验。</p><p><strong>在生成式AI之外,商汤在计算机视觉(CV)领域连续九年保持市场份额第一。</strong>2024年,商汤在面临行业调整时,视觉AI业务仍能保持稳定且出现反弹,客户复购率按年提升31个百分点,合作超过3年的长期客户达到389家,印证了其模式的韧性。</p><p><strong>第三,是财务结构的优化与盈利路径的明晰。</strong></p><p>尽管商汤目前仍处于战略性投入期,但其收入质量与结构正在持续改善。22025年上半年,商汤生成式AI业务收入占比已提升至77%,经调整亏损净额同比收窄50%。</p><p><strong>从人均效率看,商汤2024财年实现营收37.72亿元,达到同行10倍以上,人均年收入120万元为同行2-3倍。</strong></p><p>更值得关注的是现金流状况的改善,2025年上半年,商汤贸易应收回款额32亿元人民币,同比提升96%,应收周转天数同比缩短49%,显示销售与交付闭环效率显著改善,<strong>现金储备更是高于同行一个数量级。</strong></p><p><strong>这些已经跑通收入结构、拥有现金流基本盘的公司,其价值明显被低估了。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4152761061\">小结:确定性重于爆发性</h2><p>值的一提的是,商汤是上市后鲜少能对配售投资的投资者创造收益的企业。</p><p>商汤已历经四次配售定价,从结果层面看,这意味着四轮配售参与者在账面上均处于盈利状态,且越早参与,回报越高。这意味着新资金进入后,并没有通过持续稀释把风险转嫁给旧资金,反而共同分享了公司价值抬升的结果。</p><p>经历了股票解禁,目前商汤的股权机构越来越均衡、健康。目前,公司股东包括国际顶尖财团、中长期价值投资基金及具有战略协同效应的产业资本。,同时公司也注重引入带来战略资源的投资者,这些投资者更侧重于长期持有。</p><p>近半年来,包括高盛、华泰证券、国泰海通证券、汇丰银行等在内的多家知名券商和机构密集发布研报,普遍对商汤科技给予"买入"或"增持"评级,并接连上调其目标价。</p><p>在AI公司不断涌现、技术叙事快速轮动的阶段,资本市场或终将意识到一个规律:</p><p>一个板块真正成熟的标志,不是明星公司越来越多,不是涌现短期内创造最炫目的增长故事,而是出现了能够稳定预期、穿越周期的"压舱石型资产"。</p><p>当前,资本市场开始告别"唯参数论"的狂热,日益重视关注技术的落地实效、商业模式的健康度与企业的长期生存能力,商汤所代表的全栈模式的价值正在被重新发现。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当大模型公司扎堆上市,港股二次AI定价开启:谁是AI新时代的\"压舱石\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n当大模型公司扎堆上市,港股二次AI定价开启:谁是AI新时代的\"压舱石\"?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-13 13:45 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3566675><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>商汤所代表的全栈模式的价值正在被重新发现在近期,AI相关资产正在被全球资本以前所未有的密度重新定价。国产AI芯片\"四小龙\"密集推进资本化进程,市场表现大超预期。几乎在同一时间,中国市场也出现了另一条清晰的信号线。智谱、MiniMax等大模型公司相继在港交所上市,AI企业开始成规模地站到港股资本市场面前。这意味着港股市场将从\"仅有商汤一家纯正AI标的\"进入一个\"AI公司同台竞技\"的新阶段。在越来越多...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3566675\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39f5931d4cf3fccc49c0e890fceb462","relate_stocks":{"00100":"MINIMAX-WP","02513":"智谱","00020":"商汤-W"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3566675","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2603713965","content_text":"商汤所代表的全栈模式的价值正在被重新发现在近期,AI相关资产正在被全球资本以前所未有的密度重新定价。国产AI芯片\"四小龙\"密集推进资本化进程,市场表现大超预期。几乎在同一时间,中国市场也出现了另一条清晰的信号线。智谱、MiniMax等大模型公司相继在港交所上市,AI企业开始成规模地站到港股资本市场面前。这意味着港股市场将从\"仅有商汤一家纯正AI标的\"进入一个\"AI公司同台竞技\"的新阶段。在越来越多的AI公司面前,资本市场对AI的认知也在悄然发生转变。一、逻辑切换:关于AI企业,港股亟需更新价值评估标准这些事件本身并不复杂,但它们叠加在一起,却让投资者的价值判断变得困难起来。一方面,AI的长期想象空间十分具备吸引力;但另一方面,原有的投资直觉判断正在失效。首先,是对AI价值来源的重新审视。MiniMax的2026年预期市销率大约在50-60倍左右;而基于同样的计算标准,商汤目前的交易倍数仅为13倍。未来是否会发生投资者定价的变化导致这一数字变化?因此,市场讨论迅速分化:AI的价值,究竟来自模型本身、应用层产品,还是更底层的系统整合能力?其次,是港股市场供给结构的实质性变化。过去,投资AI很大程度上是投资其技术的\"稀缺性\"。市场可以用相对粗线条的方式下注未来,用\"有没有AI\"、\"是不是行业代表\"来完成判断。当现在,港股AI板块第一次出现了\"多路径同时接受定价\"的局面。不同公司在模型研发、应用切入点、商业化节奏上的差异,被同步放大。AI投资开始具备横向比较的现实基础。在这样的背景下,技术的光环逐渐让位于商业的实绩、新的\"价值坐标系\"开始浮现,从对单一技术节点的关注,升级为对全栈能力、商业模式韧性与可持续增长潜力的系统性评判。当前涌入资本市场的AI公司,大致可分为三种技术路径与商业模式,它们面临着截然不同的机遇与挑战:1、纯大模型公司:它们呈现出典型的\"三高\"特征:高研发投入、高算力依赖、高商业化不确定性。优势是技术上限高,一旦突破可能通吃上下游。但挑战同样巨大:其严重依赖外购芯片或者云服务,收入增长要与恐怖的算力成本赛跑,盈利周期长,且极易陷入同质化价格战。招商证券的报告指出,这类公司70-80%的研发投入都用于支付算力服务费,财务表现上普遍呈现\"收入高增长,亏损同步扩大\"的特征。根据招商证券研究所,智谱2025年上半年收入达1.91亿元人民币,同比增长325%;MiniMax2025年前三季度收入为5340万美元(约3.7亿元人民币),同比增长175%。两家公司虽然都保持高速增长,但亏损也在扩大,最新报告期亏损分别为17.6亿元人民币和1.9亿美元。2、应用型/Agent型公司:凭借直接面向用户的产品,它们能够快速积累用户和数据,增长曲线陡峭,故事情感性强。Manus就是典型代表,通过自动筛选简历、生成旅行攻略等具体应用场景快速打开市场。但隐患在于,其商业模式本质是\"用模型换用户\",护城河较浅,可替代性强,极易面临巨头降维打击或行业内的激烈竞争,用户获取成本高企与留存难题是长期挑战。3、平台/系统型公司:构建\"智能操作系统\"。这类公司致力于打造\"算力基础设施-大模型研发-行业应用\"的全栈式能力。它们不满足于只做一环,而是要打通从底层算力调度、模型训练到上层应用落地的全链路。其商业模式更重,但盈利弹性更高、想象空间也更大,兼具技术深度与生态广度。例如,商汤科技提出的\"大装置-大模型-应用\"三位一体战略正是这一路径的代表。这种模式的挑战在于对资金、技术、生态运营能力要求极高,需要极强的战略耐性和执行力。简而言之,如果从单点爆发力看,纯模型公司和应用型公司更容易制造短期行情;但如果从板块稳定性、资本可持续投入与长期估值锚定能力看,真正能够承担\"压舱石\"角色的,只可能是具备全栈能力的平台/系统型公司。二、为什么是商汤:生态产业链\"链主\",具备全栈能力与AI新时代的压舱石商汤被认为是港股AI板块\"压舱石\",除了上述原因,还具备两方面核心优势。其一,是其构建的全栈能力已成为行业共性需求,无论是大模型公司,还是应用层企业,在基础设施与商业化落地环节均难以绕开商汤所形成的生态体系;其二,作为国内极少数的\"双周期\"企业,其从AI 1.0时代稳健步入AI 2.0时代的完整经验,构成了其应对不确定性的独特壁垒。商汤提出的\"大装置-大模型-应用\"的\"三位一体\"战略是关键。其核心在于构建一个从底层算力调度、模型研发到上层行业应用的高效闭环。1、算力是基石:不只是成本中心,更是效率引擎商汤大装置(SenseCore)的本质,是一个专为AI原生设计的超大规模计算平台。截至2025年,商汤大装置的总算力达到约2.5万 PetaFLOPS。但它的价值不仅仅在于其庞大的算力规模。当前登陆资本市场的国产GPU企业,包括壁仞科技、摩尔线程、沐曦股份还是天数智芯,均与商汤保持着长期、稳定的合作关系。双方围绕\"算力供给—算法需求\"形成了技术互补、场景互补的协同机制。这意味着,在国产算力生态不断扩张的过程中,商汤并不是被动接受者,而是一个难以被绕开的生态产业链\"链主\"。尤其是,在国产芯片异构混训这一行业难题上,商汤大装置在国产芯片异构混调上,其实现了约5000卡规模的月级稳定运行,集群利用率达80%,异构训练效率接近同构的95%。这意味着商汤在享受国产化供应链安全的同时,并未牺牲掉太多的计算效率,这在当前地缘政治背景下构成了独特的竞争优势。更重要的是,大装置不仅是支撑内部研发的成本中心,更是可对外服务的利润中心。此外, 基于此,商汤得以洞察不同行业客户最前沿的模型训练与推理需求,为其自身的大模型研发提供了珍贵的数据反馈和场景验证。2、大模型是核心,以多模态融合引领性能突破基于大装置提供的强大算力底座,商汤的\"日日新\"大模型系列得以快速迭代。商汤大模型的技术路径核心特征是坚定地走向多模态深度融合。在权威大模型评测基准SuperCLUE发布《中文多模态视觉语言模型测评基准12月报告》显示,商汤日日新V6.5位列国内第一,斩获金牌,并在视觉推理维度上拿下国内最高分。3、实行\"AI之道在于百姓之日用\"的落地应用策略,商业化渗透兼顾广度与深度商汤集团层面的商业化路径可概括为\"一基两翼\":以\"日日新\"大模型为基石,分别提供\"生产力工具\"和\"交互工具\"。这一布局涵盖了B端和C端,形成了多元化的收入结构。目前,商汤已覆盖了具身智能、视频生成、AI4S等新兴产业,以及金融、互联网、教育等传统行业,包括银河通用、众擎机器人等具身智能企业,头部的有银行,领先的互联网科技公司、三大运营商等都是商汤的客户。值得一提的是,商汤通过\"1+X\"组织战略的推进,快速释放了AI在垂直行业的商业化潜力,各\"X\"创新业务成立独立子公司,市场化运营和融资。据市场公开消息和不完全统计,目前还在商汤集团体系内的\"X业务\",如AI医疗善萃获得2轮融资、AI零售善惠获得由金沙江创投领投的首轮融资。这种\"航母舰队\"式的布局,使商汤能够在保持核心大模型专注度的同时,广泛卡位未来高潜力赛道。在AI这场马拉松中,商汤科技作为AI生产力跃迁的关键推动者,其大装置提供的算力服务、日日新大模型的技术赋能、以及跨行业解决方案的经验积累,正成为整个AI产业发展的底层支撑。这比追逐任何一个短期热点都更有可能走得更稳、更远,也为投资者提供了一种新的价值评估视角。三、长期主义穿越了几个不可复制的周期:行业发展周期、经济周期和黑天鹅事件在近年来复杂多变的宏观环境下,得益于全栈布局,商汤科技展现了出色的风险应对能力。面对芯片管制、技术封锁等地缘政治挑战,商汤跨越完整行业发展周期依然保持稳健发展。这正是资本市场在不确定性中最为看重的品质。商汤的全栈布局能力,在实践中展现出三重协同效应,这是其同时在AI 1.0时代、AI 2.0时代保持领先的关键。首先,全栈布局放大了研发与商业化的飞轮效应。大装置为模型研发提供算力保障,强大的模型能力吸引更多应用场景客户,海量的应用数据又反哺模型优化,同时客户的真实需求指引着算力基础设施的演进方向。此外,这个闭环使得商汤不必过度依赖单一技术路线或商业模式,无论产业热点如何轮动,其全栈布局都能确保自身处于价值传导链的核心位置。其次,是抗风险能力的系统化提升。当模型技术路线变迁时,商汤具备快速迭代的工程化能力;当全球技术竞争加剧时,其在中国市场的深厚积累构成了基本盘。与纯应用公司相比,商汤的技术底座提供了更深的护城河与灵活性。当应用场景变化时,商汤拥有多行业积累的迁移经验。在生成式AI之外,商汤在计算机视觉(CV)领域连续九年保持市场份额第一。2024年,商汤在面临行业调整时,视觉AI业务仍能保持稳定且出现反弹,客户复购率按年提升31个百分点,合作超过3年的长期客户达到389家,印证了其模式的韧性。第三,是财务结构的优化与盈利路径的明晰。尽管商汤目前仍处于战略性投入期,但其收入质量与结构正在持续改善。22025年上半年,商汤生成式AI业务收入占比已提升至77%,经调整亏损净额同比收窄50%。从人均效率看,商汤2024财年实现营收37.72亿元,达到同行10倍以上,人均年收入120万元为同行2-3倍。更值得关注的是现金流状况的改善,2025年上半年,商汤贸易应收回款额32亿元人民币,同比提升96%,应收周转天数同比缩短49%,显示销售与交付闭环效率显著改善,现金储备更是高于同行一个数量级。这些已经跑通收入结构、拥有现金流基本盘的公司,其价值明显被低估了。小结:确定性重于爆发性值的一提的是,商汤是上市后鲜少能对配售投资的投资者创造收益的企业。商汤已历经四次配售定价,从结果层面看,这意味着四轮配售参与者在账面上均处于盈利状态,且越早参与,回报越高。这意味着新资金进入后,并没有通过持续稀释把风险转嫁给旧资金,反而共同分享了公司价值抬升的结果。经历了股票解禁,目前商汤的股权机构越来越均衡、健康。目前,公司股东包括国际顶尖财团、中长期价值投资基金及具有战略协同效应的产业资本。,同时公司也注重引入带来战略资源的投资者,这些投资者更侧重于长期持有。近半年来,包括高盛、华泰证券、国泰海通证券、汇丰银行等在内的多家知名券商和机构密集发布研报,普遍对商汤科技给予\"买入\"或\"增持\"评级,并接连上调其目标价。在AI公司不断涌现、技术叙事快速轮动的阶段,资本市场或终将意识到一个规律:一个板块真正成熟的标志,不是明星公司越来越多,不是涌现短期内创造最炫目的增长故事,而是出现了能够稳定预期、穿越周期的\"压舱石型资产\"。当前,资本市场开始告别\"唯参数论\"的狂热,日益重视关注技术的落地实效、商业模式的健康度与企业的长期生存能力,商汤所代表的全栈模式的价值正在被重新发现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02513":2,"00100":2,"00020":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520110127354320,"gmtCreate":1767953156728,"gmtModify":1767953160493,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"科学是反复论证","listText":"科学是反复论证","text":"科学是反复论证","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520110127354320","repostId":"2602403603","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2602403603","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767940051,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602403603?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-09 14:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"目标反复横跳!特斯拉FSD承诺再度泡汤,马斯克又提新条件","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602403603","media":"环球Tech","summary":"更值得关注的是,马斯克当日再度调整目标,称特斯拉需积累100亿英里行驶数据才能实现“安全无监督自动驾驶”,而当前其FSD系统行驶数据仅略超70亿英里。事实上,马斯克对自动驾驶的目标门槛多次变动。分析认为,特斯拉法律团队或为决策核心。当前FSD属L2级有监督系统,驾驶员需承担主要责任,特斯拉可规避多数事故赔偿风险。目前,Waymo等竞争对手已获得无监督自动驾驶相关许可,特斯拉的滞后引发市场对其技术实力的质疑。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【环球网科技综合报道】1月9日消息,据外媒The Verge报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克关于全自动驾驶(FSD)的目标再度未能兑现。此前他承诺2025年底前推出无监督运行的自动驾驶出租车服务并覆盖美国50%以上人口,但现实情况与预期相去甚远。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109143043987v2017ov59238gcy\"/><p>外媒报道称,目前特斯拉仅在奥斯汀和旧金山试点的“自动驾驶出租车”服务,仍需配备工作人员值守并可启动紧急停止开关,且未向所有用户开放,试点城市人口也远未达到美国总人口的50%。更值得关注的是,马斯克当日再度调整目标,称特斯拉需积累100亿英里行驶数据才能实现“安全无监督自动驾驶”,而当前其FSD系统行驶数据仅略超70亿英里。</p><p>事实上,马斯克对自动驾驶的目标门槛多次变动。2016年他曾提出需60亿英里数据即可获得监管批准,如今已将标准提升至100亿英里。业内质疑,既然知晓未达新指标,为何此前仍作出2025年底落地的承诺。</p><p>分析认为,特斯拉法律团队或为决策核心。当前FSD属L2级有监督系统,驾驶员需承担主要责任,特斯拉可规避多数事故赔偿风险。而一旦进入无监督阶段,公司将面临巨额责任压力。目前,Waymo等竞争对手已获得无监督自动驾驶相关许可,特斯拉的滞后引发市场对其技术实力的质疑。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>目标反复横跳!特斯拉FSD承诺再度泡汤,马斯克又提新条件</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n目标反复横跳!特斯拉FSD承诺再度泡汤,马斯克又提新条件\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-09 14:27 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109143146a705ff53&s=b><strong>环球Tech</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【环球网科技综合报道】1月9日消息,据外媒The Verge报道,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克关于全自动驾驶(FSD)的目标再度未能兑现。此前他承诺2025年底前推出无监督运行的自动驾驶出租车服务并覆盖美国50%以上人口,但现实情况与预期相去甚远。外媒报道称,目前特斯拉仅在奥斯汀和旧金山试点的“自动驾驶出租车”服务,仍需配备工作人员值守并可启动紧急停止开关,且未向所有用户开放,试点城市人口也远未达到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109143146a705ff53&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) 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DIS USD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109143146a705ff53&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2602403603","content_text":"【环球网科技综合报道】1月9日消息,据外媒The Verge报道,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克关于全自动驾驶(FSD)的目标再度未能兑现。此前他承诺2025年底前推出无监督运行的自动驾驶出租车服务并覆盖美国50%以上人口,但现实情况与预期相去甚远。外媒报道称,目前特斯拉仅在奥斯汀和旧金山试点的“自动驾驶出租车”服务,仍需配备工作人员值守并可启动紧急停止开关,且未向所有用户开放,试点城市人口也远未达到美国总人口的50%。更值得关注的是,马斯克当日再度调整目标,称特斯拉需积累100亿英里行驶数据才能实现“安全无监督自动驾驶”,而当前其FSD系统行驶数据仅略超70亿英里。事实上,马斯克对自动驾驶的目标门槛多次变动。2016年他曾提出需60亿英里数据即可获得监管批准,如今已将标准提升至100亿英里。业内质疑,既然知晓未达新指标,为何此前仍作出2025年底落地的承诺。分析认为,特斯拉法律团队或为决策核心。当前FSD属L2级有监督系统,驾驶员需承担主要责任,特斯拉可规避多数事故赔偿风险。而一旦进入无监督阶段,公司将面临巨额责任压力。目前,Waymo等竞争对手已获得无监督自动驾驶相关许可,特斯拉的滞后引发市场对其技术实力的质疑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UFO":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":514934037214264,"gmtCreate":1766746686520,"gmtModify":1766746688823,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不影响华尔街想炒作的步伐","listText":"不影响华尔街想炒作的步伐","text":"不影响华尔街想炒作的步伐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514934037214264","repostId":"2594264850","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2594264850","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766733050,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594264850?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-26 15:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉四季度交付量或同比环比双双下滑 有消息称将低于44万辆","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594264850","media":"TechWeb.com.cn","summary":"对于特斯拉四季度的交付量,外媒称华尔街目前普遍预计在44万辆左右,但也有分析师预计交付41.5万辆,有机构预计在41.5万辆到43.5万辆。如果特斯拉四季度的交付量低于44万辆或在44万辆左右,就意味着他们这一季度的交付量,同比环比将双双下滑。从特斯拉公布的季度产量和交付量来看,他们在去年四季度生产459,445辆电动汽车,向预订者交付495,570辆,今年三季度生产447,450辆,交付497,099辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>12月26日消息,据外媒报道,四季度临近尾声,各大厂商会交出一份什么样的业绩也备受关注,投行和分析师也在给出相关的预期,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>电动汽车的交付量预期就已有分析师和投行给出。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251226151050276v152w3l6qfqf8pf\"/><p>对于特斯拉四季度的交付量,外媒称华尔街目前普遍预计在44万辆左右,但也有分析师预计交付41.5万辆,有机构预计在41.5万辆到43.5万辆。</p><p>如果特斯拉四季度的交付量低于44万辆或在44万辆左右,就意味着他们这一季度的交付量,同比环比将双双下滑。</p><p>从特斯拉公布的季度产量和交付量来看,他们在去年四季度生产459,445辆电动汽车,向预订者交付495,570辆,今年三季度生产447,450辆,交付497,099辆。</p><p>外媒在报道中提到,投行给出44万辆左右甚至低于44万辆的预期,与美国取消7500美元的联邦税收抵免有关。美国是特斯拉电动汽车最大的市场,他们给予电动汽车购买者7500美元的联邦税收抵免,在今年9月30日之后已不再提供,投行和分析师认为这影响了特斯拉电动汽车在美国市场的需求,进而给出了同比环比均下滑的预期。</p><p>但至于特斯拉四季度最终的交付量如何,要在他们公布产量和交付量之后才会揭晓,他们通常是在每一季度结束之后的第二天就公布季度产量和交付量,今年四季度大概率也会如此。(海蓝)</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉四季度交付量或同比环比双双下滑 有消息称将低于44万辆</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉四季度交付量或同比环比双双下滑 有消息称将低于44万辆\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-26 15:10 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251226151050953bae5a&s=b><strong>TechWeb.com.cn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月26日消息,据外媒报道,四季度临近尾声,各大厂商会交出一份什么样的业绩也备受关注,投行和分析师也在给出相关的预期,特斯拉电动汽车的交付量预期就已有分析师和投行给出。对于特斯拉四季度的交付量,外媒称华尔街目前普遍预计在44万辆左右,但也有分析师预计交付41.5万辆,有机构预计在41.5万辆到43.5万辆。如果特斯拉四季度的交付量低于44万辆或在44万辆左右,就意味着他们这一季度的交付量,同比...</p>\n\n<a 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Inc.(LITE)今日盘中大涨6.88%,成为市场焦点。</p><p>消息面上,摩根士丹利将Lumentum的目标价从190美元大幅上调至304美元,这一乐观调整显著提升了市场对该股的信心。目标价的上调反映了机构对Lumentum在光通信领域未来发展潜力的看好,直接推动了股价的强劲表现。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LITE":"Lumentum Holdings Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124976550","content_text":"Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)今日盘中大涨6.88%,成为市场焦点。消息面上,摩根士丹利将Lumentum的目标价从190美元大幅上调至304美元,这一乐观调整显著提升了市场对该股的信心。目标价的上调反映了机构对Lumentum在光通信领域未来发展潜力的看好,直接推动了股价的强劲表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LITE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512154121467040,"gmtCreate":1766064667771,"gmtModify":1766064670143,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"共同做局骗股市资金","listText":"共同做局骗股市资金","text":"共同做局骗股市资金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512154121467040","repostId":"1181462115","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181462115","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1766057586,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181462115?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-18 19:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息:特朗普媒体科技集团将与TAE科技进行全股票交易合并","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181462115","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月18日,$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$盘前飙升近24%!市场消息:该公司将与TAE科技进行全股票交易合并,交易预计于2026年年中完成。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月18日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DJT\">特朗普媒体科技集团</a>飙升逾30%!市场消息:该公司将与TAE科技进行全股票交易合并,交易预计于2026年年中完成。合并后公司预计将于2026年选址并开始建设首座公用事业规模的核聚变发电厂 。聚变能源将为美国的人工智能主导地位和能源安全开辟道路。交易结束后,公司将成为“真相社交”(Truth Social)、“真相+”(Truth+)、“真相金融”(Truth.FI)、TAE、TAE Power Solutions以及TAE Life Sciences的控股公司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f40b994753f7ef7dc779c6f369a2361\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息:特朗普媒体科技集团将与TAE科技进行全股票交易合并</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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class=\"h-time\">2025-12-18 19:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月18日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DJT\">特朗普媒体科技集团</a>飙升逾30%!市场消息:该公司将与TAE科技进行全股票交易合并,交易预计于2026年年中完成。合并后公司预计将于2026年选址并开始建设首座公用事业规模的核聚变发电厂 。聚变能源将为美国的人工智能主导地位和能源安全开辟道路。交易结束后,公司将成为“真相社交”(Truth Social)、“真相+”(Truth+)、“真相金融”(Truth.FI)、TAE、TAE Power Solutions以及TAE Life Sciences的控股公司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f40b994753f7ef7dc779c6f369a2361\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181462115","content_text":"12月18日,特朗普媒体科技集团飙升逾30%!市场消息:该公司将与TAE科技进行全股票交易合并,交易预计于2026年年中完成。合并后公司预计将于2026年选址并开始建设首座公用事业规模的核聚变发电厂 。聚变能源将为美国的人工智能主导地位和能源安全开辟道路。交易结束后,公司将成为“真相社交”(Truth Social)、“真相+”(Truth+)、“真相金融”(Truth.FI)、TAE、TAE Power Solutions以及TAE Life Sciences的控股公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DJT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511806264815656,"gmtCreate":1765979655492,"gmtModify":1765979658030,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"都是大跌","listText":"都是大跌","text":"都是大跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511806264815656","repostId":"1108810337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108810337","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1765959223,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108810337?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-17 16:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美光今日盘后公布业绩:华尔街希望这家存储芯片制造商交出怎样的答卷?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108810337","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"要点预计 $美光科技$ 将公布的第一财季营收129亿美元,调整后每股收益为3.96美元。美光股价今年以来上涨175%,大幅跑赢纳斯达克综合指数19%的涨幅。美光科技将于周三美股收盘后公布其第一财季业绩。投资者希望,这家芯片制造商给出的业绩指引能够好于当前市场一致预期。周二,Needham 分析师 N·奎因·博尔顿将美光科技的目标股价从200美元上调至300美元,并重申对该股的“买入”评级。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>要点</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>预计 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a> 将公布的第一财季营收129亿美元,调整后每股收益为3.96美元。</p></li><li><p>Needham 分析师 N·奎因·博尔顿将美光科技的目标价从200美元上调至300美元,并维持“买入”评级。</p></li><li><p>美光股价今年以来上涨175%,大幅跑赢纳斯达克综合指数19%的涨幅。</p></li></ul><p>美光科技(MU)将于周三美股收盘后公布其第一财季业绩。投资者希望,这家芯片制造商给出的业绩指引能够好于当前市场一致预期。</p><p>华尔街预计,美光将在截至11月的季度实现营收129亿美元,调整后每股收益为3.96美元。分析师对当前季度的预测为:营收143亿美元,每股收益4.78美元。</p><p>美光是动态随机存取存储器(DRAM)市场的领导者,其产品广泛用于台式电脑和服务器;同时也是闪存领域的重要厂商,相关产品应用于智能手机和固态硬盘。近年来,美光还成为人工智能服务器所需高带宽存储器(HBM)的关键供应商。</p><p>周二,Needham 分析师 N·奎因·博尔顿将美光科技的目标股价从200美元上调至300美元,并重申对该股的“买入”评级。</p><p>他在报告中写道:“数据中心市场的需求状况依然强劲。我们预计,现货市场中存储芯片价格的飙升,将在未来几个季度推动合约价格进一步走高。”</p><p>今年以来,美光股价累计上涨175%,相比之下,纳斯达克综合指数(COMP)同期仅上涨19%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美光今日盘后公布业绩:华尔街希望这家存储芯片制造商交出怎样的答卷?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美光今日盘后公布业绩:华尔街希望这家存储芯片制造商交出怎样的答卷?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-17 16:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>要点</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>预计 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a> 将公布的第一财季营收129亿美元,调整后每股收益为3.96美元。</p></li><li><p>Needham 分析师 N·奎因·博尔顿将美光科技的目标价从200美元上调至300美元,并维持“买入”评级。</p></li><li><p>美光股价今年以来上涨175%,大幅跑赢纳斯达克综合指数19%的涨幅。</p></li></ul><p>美光科技(MU)将于周三美股收盘后公布其第一财季业绩。投资者希望,这家芯片制造商给出的业绩指引能够好于当前市场一致预期。</p><p>华尔街预计,美光将在截至11月的季度实现营收129亿美元,调整后每股收益为3.96美元。分析师对当前季度的预测为:营收143亿美元,每股收益4.78美元。</p><p>美光是动态随机存取存储器(DRAM)市场的领导者,其产品广泛用于台式电脑和服务器;同时也是闪存领域的重要厂商,相关产品应用于智能手机和固态硬盘。近年来,美光还成为人工智能服务器所需高带宽存储器(HBM)的关键供应商。</p><p>周二,Needham 分析师 N·奎因·博尔顿将美光科技的目标股价从200美元上调至300美元,并重申对该股的“买入”评级。</p><p>他在报告中写道:“数据中心市场的需求状况依然强劲。我们预计,现货市场中存储芯片价格的飙升,将在未来几个季度推动合约价格进一步走高。”</p><p>今年以来,美光股价累计上涨175%,相比之下,纳斯达克综合指数(COMP)同期仅上涨19%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108810337","content_text":"要点预计 美光科技 将公布的第一财季营收129亿美元,调整后每股收益为3.96美元。Needham 分析师 N·奎因·博尔顿将美光科技的目标价从200美元上调至300美元,并维持“买入”评级。美光股价今年以来上涨175%,大幅跑赢纳斯达克综合指数19%的涨幅。美光科技(MU)将于周三美股收盘后公布其第一财季业绩。投资者希望,这家芯片制造商给出的业绩指引能够好于当前市场一致预期。华尔街预计,美光将在截至11月的季度实现营收129亿美元,调整后每股收益为3.96美元。分析师对当前季度的预测为:营收143亿美元,每股收益4.78美元。美光是动态随机存取存储器(DRAM)市场的领导者,其产品广泛用于台式电脑和服务器;同时也是闪存领域的重要厂商,相关产品应用于智能手机和固态硬盘。近年来,美光还成为人工智能服务器所需高带宽存储器(HBM)的关键供应商。周二,Needham 分析师 N·奎因·博尔顿将美光科技的目标股价从200美元上调至300美元,并重申对该股的“买入”评级。他在报告中写道:“数据中心市场的需求状况依然强劲。我们预计,现货市场中存储芯片价格的飙升,将在未来几个季度推动合约价格进一步走高。”今年以来,美光股价累计上涨175%,相比之下,纳斯达克综合指数(COMP)同期仅上涨19%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511799581737424,"gmtCreate":1765978116718,"gmtModify":1765978119447,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没有资金愿意投入数据中心项目","listText":"没有资金愿意投入数据中心项目","text":"没有资金愿意投入数据中心项目","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511799581737424","repostId":"1109714733","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1109714733","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1765977768,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109714733?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-17 21:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"甲骨文100亿美元数据中心融资受阻,甲骨文:仍按计划进行,推进情况合预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109714733","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"12月17日,$甲骨文(ORCL)$、$Blue Owl(OBDE)$盘前均跌超3%!报道称甲骨文耗资100亿美元的密歇根数据中心项目因$Blue Owl(OBDE)$基金融资谈判陷入僵局而前景不明。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>据报道,三位知情人士透露,Blue Owl此前一直在与贷款方及甲骨文洽谈,计划投资位于密歇根州Saline Township的一个规划容量达1千兆瓦的数据中心。然而,随着谈判陷入停滞,Blue Owl原计划安排高达100亿美元融资并进行大额股权投资的协议将无法推进。不过,甲骨文随后回应表示,有关项目的股权交易最终谈判“进展按计划进行”,整体推进情况符合预期。甲骨文股价周三早盘跌超4.8%,公司回应之后股价刷新日低。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体报道,甲骨文公司在该公司雄心勃勃的人工智能(AI)基础设施扩张计划上遭遇重大挫折,其最大的数据中心合作伙伴Blue Owl Capital已决定不再支持一项价值100亿美元的数据中心项目。不过,甲骨文随后回应称,该项目的谈判仍然按计划进行,整体推进情况符合预期,且交易中不包括蓝猫头鹰资本(Blue Owl Capital)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12月17日,据英国金融时报消息,三位知情人士透露,Blue Owl此前一直在与贷款方及甲骨文洽谈,计划投资位于密歇根州Saline Township的一个规划容量达1GW的数据中心。然而,<strong>随着谈判陷入停滞,Blue Owl原计划安排高达100亿美元融资并进行大额股权投资的协议将无法推进。</strong>这座数据中心原计划为OpenAI提供服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报道指出,这一融资合作的破裂使得该项目的资金来源陷入不确定状态。知情人士称,<strong>尽管黑石(Blackstone)已就作为财务合作伙伴介入进行了谈判,但目前尚未签署任何投资协议,这令该密歇根设施的融资前景充满不确定性。</strong>目前,甲骨文尚未与新的支持者正式签署协议。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文股价在消息传出后立即下挫,并拖累科技板块整体走低。分析称,这一事件凸显出,<strong>当私募信贷市场开始收紧资金供给时,支撑AI基础设施建设的资金链条可能面临断裂风险。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517e1c2c92550dc6064fc71fccc503e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"666\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9d80e73361d9d74f0e46979b31544c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"626\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>不过,甲骨文公司随后回应表示,有关其位于密歇根州的数据中心项目的股权交易,最终谈判“进展按计划进行”,整体推进情况符合预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文在一份声明中称,该项目的开发合作伙伴Related Digital已经在多项竞争性方案中选定了“最佳的股权合作伙伴”,并补充表示,这一合作伙伴将不会是Blue Owl Capital。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析指出,此次融资动荡直接暴露了甲骨文AI基础设施战略日益紧张的资金链。该公司近几个月的大规模支出和激进的债务融资行为已引发市场警觉,导致其股价较9月的高点下跌超过40%,过去一个月跌近15%,债券亦遭到抛售。周三早盘,甲骨文股价跌超4.8%,公司回应之后股价刷新日低。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/362f9500d6c0f7dbe1ea1546ff9b2a0b\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"564\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2589096189\">融资条款收紧与债务担忧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报道称,据知情人士透露,Blue Owl退出的核心原因在于市场情绪的转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>鉴于包括甲骨文自身承诺在内的巨额AI支出以及不断攀升的债务水平,贷款方开始推动实施更严格的租赁和债务条款。这使得该交易对Blue Owl而言,在财务吸引力上不如早期的项目。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文的债务状况正成为投资者和评级机构关注的焦点。据华尔街见闻文章,甲骨文最新的财报显示,截至11月底,甲骨文包括租赁义务在内的净债务约为1050亿美元,高于一年前的近780亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大摩预测,到2028年,这一数字将飙升至约2900亿美元。此外,监管文件显示,甲骨文的总租赁承诺在截至11月底的三个月内从1000亿美元激增至2480亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报道称,一位熟悉甲骨文与贷款方及数据中心运营商交易结构的人士指出,与亚马逊和微软等竞争对手相比,甲骨文在租赁上面临更苛刻的条款。该人士表示,贷款方更倾向于与经验更丰富、项目投机性较低的“超大规模企业”合作。</p><h2 id=\"id_1319372907\">项目延期风险与建设挑战</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了财务条款分歧外,<strong>项目的执行风险也是Blue Owl退出的考量因素之一。</strong>Blue Owl担心由开发商Related Digital承建的Saline Township基地可能会面临延期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该项目作为甲骨文与OpenAI达成的3000亿美元协议的一部分,旨在未来五年内提供4.5GW的算力。然而,该项目自8月启动以来便面临诸多问题,包括当地政府最初拒绝重新分区申请从而引发诉讼。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管案件已和解且预计明年第一季度动工,但早期的波折加剧了投资方对项目进展的担忧。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">私募信贷收紧或威胁AI基础设施建设</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析指出,Blue Owl的突然退出引发市场对AI投资周期能否持续的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">作为甲骨文数据中心项目的主要资金提供方,该机构过去一直为这类项目投入自有资金并筹集数十亿美元债务融资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Blue Owl通常通过投入自有资金并筹集数十亿美元债务来建设设施,拥有数据中心的所有权,并将其长期租赁给甲骨文。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种模式曾在得克萨斯州Abilene价值150亿美元的基地和新墨西哥州180亿美元的园区项目中得到应用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而,<strong>随着密歇根项目谈判的破裂,这种依赖特定私募资本合作伙伴进行资产负债表外融资的模式正面临考验。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场分析人士指出,如果连私募信贷机构都开始对AI基础设施项目说"不",那么整个AI投资周期能否顺利完成将面临重大疑问。这对数据中心生态系统和甲骨文本身都可能构成严重利空。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早在2024年6月就有市场观察者警告,支撑这类大规模资本支出的债务融资最终将面临临界点。如今这一预警似乎正在成为现实,私募信贷市场对科技企业债务负担和AI支出回报的担忧正在从隐忧转为实际行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据报道,甲骨文目前正在与多家美国银行洽谈筹集380亿美元的债务融资,试图在该关键时刻填补资金缺口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文方面回应称,其开发合作伙伴Related Digital已从竞争者中选择了“最佳股权合作伙伴”,并称最终谈判正按计划进行。Related Digital方面则仅表示正处于“尽职调查的最后阶段”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文100亿美元数据中心融资受阻,甲骨文:仍按计划进行,推进情况合预期</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文100亿美元数据中心融资受阻,甲骨文:仍按计划进行,推进情况合预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2025-12-17 21:22 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据报道,三位知情人士透露,Blue Owl此前一直在与贷款方及甲骨文洽谈,计划投资位于密歇根州Saline Township的一个规划容量达1千兆瓦的数据中心。然而,随着谈判陷入停滞,Blue Owl原计划安排高达100亿美元融资并进行大额股权投资的协议将无法推进。不过,甲骨文随后回应表示,有关项目的股权交易最终谈判“进展按计划进行”,整体推进情况符合预期。甲骨文股价周三早盘跌超4.8%,公司回应...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c35c8a27605936ee42c5dc8842ec36a","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文","OBDE":"Blue Owl Capital Corp III"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109714733","content_text":"据报道,三位知情人士透露,Blue Owl此前一直在与贷款方及甲骨文洽谈,计划投资位于密歇根州Saline Township的一个规划容量达1千兆瓦的数据中心。然而,随着谈判陷入停滞,Blue Owl原计划安排高达100亿美元融资并进行大额股权投资的协议将无法推进。不过,甲骨文随后回应表示,有关项目的股权交易最终谈判“进展按计划进行”,整体推进情况符合预期。甲骨文股价周三早盘跌超4.8%,公司回应之后股价刷新日低。媒体报道,甲骨文公司在该公司雄心勃勃的人工智能(AI)基础设施扩张计划上遭遇重大挫折,其最大的数据中心合作伙伴Blue Owl Capital已决定不再支持一项价值100亿美元的数据中心项目。不过,甲骨文随后回应称,该项目的谈判仍然按计划进行,整体推进情况符合预期,且交易中不包括蓝猫头鹰资本(Blue Owl Capital)。12月17日,据英国金融时报消息,三位知情人士透露,Blue Owl此前一直在与贷款方及甲骨文洽谈,计划投资位于密歇根州Saline Township的一个规划容量达1GW的数据中心。然而,随着谈判陷入停滞,Blue Owl原计划安排高达100亿美元融资并进行大额股权投资的协议将无法推进。这座数据中心原计划为OpenAI提供服务。报道指出,这一融资合作的破裂使得该项目的资金来源陷入不确定状态。知情人士称,尽管黑石(Blackstone)已就作为财务合作伙伴介入进行了谈判,但目前尚未签署任何投资协议,这令该密歇根设施的融资前景充满不确定性。目前,甲骨文尚未与新的支持者正式签署协议。甲骨文股价在消息传出后立即下挫,并拖累科技板块整体走低。分析称,这一事件凸显出,当私募信贷市场开始收紧资金供给时,支撑AI基础设施建设的资金链条可能面临断裂风险。不过,甲骨文公司随后回应表示,有关其位于密歇根州的数据中心项目的股权交易,最终谈判“进展按计划进行”,整体推进情况符合预期。甲骨文在一份声明中称,该项目的开发合作伙伴Related Digital已经在多项竞争性方案中选定了“最佳的股权合作伙伴”,并补充表示,这一合作伙伴将不会是Blue Owl Capital。分析指出,此次融资动荡直接暴露了甲骨文AI基础设施战略日益紧张的资金链。该公司近几个月的大规模支出和激进的债务融资行为已引发市场警觉,导致其股价较9月的高点下跌超过40%,过去一个月跌近15%,债券亦遭到抛售。周三早盘,甲骨文股价跌超4.8%,公司回应之后股价刷新日低。融资条款收紧与债务担忧报道称,据知情人士透露,Blue Owl退出的核心原因在于市场情绪的转变。鉴于包括甲骨文自身承诺在内的巨额AI支出以及不断攀升的债务水平,贷款方开始推动实施更严格的租赁和债务条款。这使得该交易对Blue Owl而言,在财务吸引力上不如早期的项目。甲骨文的债务状况正成为投资者和评级机构关注的焦点。据华尔街见闻文章,甲骨文最新的财报显示,截至11月底,甲骨文包括租赁义务在内的净债务约为1050亿美元,高于一年前的近780亿美元。大摩预测,到2028年,这一数字将飙升至约2900亿美元。此外,监管文件显示,甲骨文的总租赁承诺在截至11月底的三个月内从1000亿美元激增至2480亿美元。报道称,一位熟悉甲骨文与贷款方及数据中心运营商交易结构的人士指出,与亚马逊和微软等竞争对手相比,甲骨文在租赁上面临更苛刻的条款。该人士表示,贷款方更倾向于与经验更丰富、项目投机性较低的“超大规模企业”合作。项目延期风险与建设挑战除了财务条款分歧外,项目的执行风险也是Blue Owl退出的考量因素之一。Blue Owl担心由开发商Related Digital承建的Saline Township基地可能会面临延期。该项目作为甲骨文与OpenAI达成的3000亿美元协议的一部分,旨在未来五年内提供4.5GW的算力。然而,该项目自8月启动以来便面临诸多问题,包括当地政府最初拒绝重新分区申请从而引发诉讼。尽管案件已和解且预计明年第一季度动工,但早期的波折加剧了投资方对项目进展的担忧。私募信贷收紧或威胁AI基础设施建设分析指出,Blue Owl的突然退出引发市场对AI投资周期能否持续的担忧。作为甲骨文数据中心项目的主要资金提供方,该机构过去一直为这类项目投入自有资金并筹集数十亿美元债务融资。Blue Owl通常通过投入自有资金并筹集数十亿美元债务来建设设施,拥有数据中心的所有权,并将其长期租赁给甲骨文。这种模式曾在得克萨斯州Abilene价值150亿美元的基地和新墨西哥州180亿美元的园区项目中得到应用。然而,随着密歇根项目谈判的破裂,这种依赖特定私募资本合作伙伴进行资产负债表外融资的模式正面临考验。市场分析人士指出,如果连私募信贷机构都开始对AI基础设施项目说\"不\",那么整个AI投资周期能否顺利完成将面临重大疑问。这对数据中心生态系统和甲骨文本身都可能构成严重利空。早在2024年6月就有市场观察者警告,支撑这类大规模资本支出的债务融资最终将面临临界点。如今这一预警似乎正在成为现实,私募信贷市场对科技企业债务负担和AI支出回报的担忧正在从隐忧转为实际行动。据报道,甲骨文目前正在与多家美国银行洽谈筹集380亿美元的债务融资,试图在该关键时刻填补资金缺口。甲骨文方面回应称,其开发合作伙伴Related Digital已从竞争者中选择了“最佳股权合作伙伴”,并称最终谈判正按计划进行。Related 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16:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"软银CEO孙正义:我不想出售一股英伟达的股份,但我需要资金投资于OpenAI及我们的机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178636822","media":"美股速递","summary":"软银CEO孙正义表示,他并不想出售一股英伟达的股份,但他需要资金来投资于OpenAI和其他机会。","content":"<p>软银CEO孙正义表示,他并不想出售一股英伟达的股份,但他需要资金来投资于OpenAI和其他机会。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>软银CEO孙正义:我不想出售一股英伟达的股份,但我需要资金投资于OpenAI及我们的机会</title>\n<style 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16:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>软银CEO孙正义表示,他并不想出售一股英伟达的股份,但他需要资金来投资于OpenAI和其他机会。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0788109477.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0094547139.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","LU2077746001.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A2 SGD-H","LU0724617625.USD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) 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19:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"申万宏源维持谷歌-A买入评级 目标价386美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586597322","media":"格隆汇","summary":"申万宏源维持谷歌-A(GOOGL.US)买入评级,目标价386美元,受益于Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro技术领先,AI搜索、API及Veo视频驱动Tokens消耗高增,TPU","content":"<html><body><p>申万宏源维持谷歌-A(GOOGL.US)买入评级,目标价386美元,受益于Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro技术领先,AI搜索、API及Veo视频驱动Tokens消耗高增,TPU v7获Anthropic百万卡订单,云业务增速上修。上调25-27年净利润至1291/1370/1607亿美元,AI进展兑现支撑34x PE估值,目标价对应21%上涨空间。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>申万宏源维持谷歌-A买入评级 目标价386美元</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","LU2404859667.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0477156797.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0477156953.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0690374961.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) INC","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) 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11:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"反击大空头!英伟达致信华尔街分析师,反驳会计丑闻等指控","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586448652","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英伟达 针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录,反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达直接回击“大空头”英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控,称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录,反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好,并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。</p></blockquote><p>上周,在英伟达公布第三财季财报后,华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对他的指控,英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录,对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。</p><h2 id=\"id_931209130\" style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达直接回击“大空头”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控,称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论,强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体(SPV),不依赖供应商融资,并且只有一项披露的担保,其公允价值微不足道。</p><p>在财务细节上,英伟达表示付款条款依然严格,销售未达账项天数(DSO)保持在53天,与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题,备忘录回应称,今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性,且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外,公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查,并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控,英伟达在备忘录中澄清,其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元,年初至今约为47亿美元,这仅占其营收的一小部分,所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调,其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司还强调,投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>反驳财务指控</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称,华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中,他指出,这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示:“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出,这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行,不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burry估计,从2026年到2028年,整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元,并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司,其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还透露,截至9月30日,他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸,包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出,<strong>强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好,并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元,自由现金流量为221亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2018财年以来,长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示,库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。</strong>英伟达向分析师表示,今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性,并且这一情况已得到恰当核算,而坏账费用微不足道,计入了一般及管理费用中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它还表示,目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动,而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控,该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。<strong>Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道,关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。</strong></p><p>除了具体的财务澄清,英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后,也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论,”黄仁勋表示,“但从我们的角度来看,我们看到的是截然不同的景象(From our vantage point, we see something very different)。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739558f5b7f538e207daad422037ad1c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>反击大空头!英伟达致信华尔街分析师,反驳会计丑闻等指控</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n反击大空头!英伟达致信华尔街分析师,反驳会计丑闻等指控\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-25 11:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录,反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好,并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。</p></blockquote><p>上周,在英伟达公布第三财季财报后,华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对他的指控,英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录,对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。</p><h2 id=\"id_931209130\" style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达直接回击“大空头”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控,称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论,强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体(SPV),不依赖供应商融资,并且只有一项披露的担保,其公允价值微不足道。</p><p>在财务细节上,英伟达表示付款条款依然严格,销售未达账项天数(DSO)保持在53天,与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题,备忘录回应称,今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性,且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外,公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查,并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控,英伟达在备忘录中澄清,其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元,年初至今约为47亿美元,这仅占其营收的一小部分,所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调,其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该公司还强调,投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>反驳财务指控</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称,华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中,他指出,这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示:“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出,这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行,不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burry估计,从2026年到2028年,整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元,并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司,其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还透露,截至9月30日,他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸,包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出,<strong>强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好,并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元,自由现金流量为221亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2018财年以来,长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示,库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。</strong>英伟达向分析师表示,今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性,并且这一情况已得到恰当核算,而坏账费用微不足道,计入了一般及管理费用中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它还表示,目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动,而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控,该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。<strong>Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道,关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。</strong></p><p>除了具体的财务澄清,英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后,也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论,”黄仁勋表示,“但从我们的角度来看,我们看到的是截然不同的景象(From our vantage point, we see something very different)。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739558f5b7f538e207daad422037ad1c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6954d1dc2b34c5f605b752cf346a1934","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125104633977da988&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2586448652","content_text":"英伟达针对知名空头投资人Michael Burry的指控发布了一份详尽的备忘录,反驳了有关欺诈、会计丑闻和循环融资等指控。英伟达强调其收入质量良好,并对利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控进行了澄清。上周,在英伟达公布第三财季财报后,华尔街知名的“大空头”、因高调做空AI热门股引发关注的Michael Burry就在社交平台上指责各大科技巨头对自己的营收作出了不实陈述。针对他的指控,英伟达已向华尔街分析师们发布了一份详尽的备忘录,对与“大空头”Michael Burry有关的欺诈指控以及题为“能发现6100亿美元欺诈行为的算法”的文章予以反驳。英伟达直接回击“大空头”英伟达直接回应了“大空头”Burry的每一项指控,称这些指控对公司的业务实践、财务披露以及当前人工智能投资周期的动态进行了错误描述。该备忘录拒绝将此事与过去的会计丑闻相提并论,强调英伟达不使用特殊目的实体(SPV),不依赖供应商融资,并且只有一项披露的担保,其公允价值微不足道。在财务细节上,英伟达表示付款条款依然严格,销售未达账项天数(DSO)保持在53天,与过去几年一致。对于Burry重点攻击的折旧与利润率问题,备忘录回应称,今年较高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性,且已进行了适当的会计处理。此外,公司明确表示不知道有任何SEC调查,并指出加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。针对市场上广泛流传的“6100亿美元循环融资”指控,英伟达在备忘录中澄清,其战略投资在第三季度仅为37亿美元,年初至今约为47亿美元,这仅占其营收的一小部分,所谓巨额循环融资毫无根据。公司还强调,其投资组合公司主要筹集的是第三方资金。该公司还强调,投资组合中的公司主要通过第三方筹集资金。反驳财务指控因《大空头》一书而闻名的Burry此前曾警告称,华尔街大型科技公司可能低估了与人工智能基础设施相关的折旧费用。在最近的一篇推文中,他指出,这些科技巨头以一种“人为地提高收益”的方式延长了资产的预计使用寿命——这是现代较为常见的欺诈行为之一。他表示:“通过购买英伟达芯片/服务器来大幅增加资本支出,这种做法在2-3年的产品周期内进行,不应导致计算设备使用寿命的延长。”Burry估计,从2026年到2028年,整个行业在折旧方面的数据可能会低估约1760亿美元,并指出像甲骨文和Meta这样的公司,其利润在接下来的十年可能会高估超过20%。他还透露,截至9月30日,他持有大量针对几只与人工智能相关的股票的看跌期权头寸,包括与英伟达和 Palantir Technologies相关的押注。不过,英伟达为其会计和运营做法进行了辩护。该公司指出,强劲的现金转换情况证明了其收入质量良好,并公布了第三季度的运营现金流量为238亿美元,自由现金流量为221亿美元。自2018财年以来,长期自由现金流量一直约占公认会计准则净利润的98%。该公司表示,库存趋势反映了正常的产品生产节奏和前瞻性指引。这份备忘录还反驳了有关利润率、折旧和监管风险的指控。英伟达向分析师表示,今年更高的保修成本反映了Blackwell架构的复杂性,并且这一情况已得到恰当核算,而坏账费用微不足道,计入了一般及管理费用中。它还表示,目前并未得知美国证券交易委员会有任何调查行动,而且加密货币价格波动与其会计核算无关。关于内幕交易的指控,该公司称这是对第三方基金行为的错误解读。这一反击得到了部分华尔街分析师的支持。Raymond James分析师Simon Leopold在研报中写道,关于“系统性欺诈”的叙事与英伟达的基本面不符。他认为英伟达在AI相关机会上的投资是适当的。除了具体的财务澄清,英伟达CEO黄仁勋在上周财报发布后,也针对宏观层面的“泡沫论”做出了直接回应:“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论,”黄仁勋表示,“但从我们的角度来看,我们看到的是截然不同的景象(From our vantage point, we see something very different)。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504032959164752,"gmtCreate":1764064550001,"gmtModify":1764064552380,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Google说还没有下单,急什么急,没出息","listText":"Google说还没有下单,急什么急,没出息","text":"Google说还没有下单,急什么急,没出息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504032959164752","repostId":"2586879428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2586879428","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1764059977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586879428?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 16:39","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"一文读懂“谷歌链”:AI全栈式创新,TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586879428","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"中泰证券认为,本轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。本质上是用物理光路直接传输数据,彻底抛弃了“光—电—光”的信号转换过程。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS(光电路交换机)技术,谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈,更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。谷歌已围绕芯片(TPU)—网络(OCS)—模型(Gemini)—应用(云计算/搜索/广告等)全栈优势构筑AI护城河。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在AI军备竞赛日益白热化的背景下,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>正凭借其从芯片到网络的“全栈式”创新构筑独特的算力护城河。</p><p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">中泰证券</a>看来,这一轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS(光电路交换机)技术,谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈,更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。</p><p>TPU与OCS的深度耦合,不仅支撑了Gemini等大模型的高效迭代,也直接带动了上游光模块(特别是1.6T)、MEMS芯片、光器件等产业链环节的增量需求。AI数据中心正从静态架构向动态光子互联演进。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22dd80a7200875634ac7e26a556be416\" tg-width=\"1318\" tg-height=\"263\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_645066037\">TPU v7“Ironwood”放量:ASIC市场的主导力量</h2><p>中泰证券认为,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>I已围绕芯片(TPU)—网络(OCS)—模型(Gemini)—应用(云计算/搜索/广告等)全栈优势构筑护城河。</p><p>从2011年谷歌成立谷歌大脑 (Google Brain)实验室开始涉足AI开始,一系列具有影响力的AI研究相继问世,包括2017年发布Transformer架构到2023年推出多模态大模型Gemini,目前已形成从芯片到集群架构到大模型再到应用端的布局,谷歌将AI逐步整合到多元业务流程中,这些业务为谷歌获取了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>,用于训练完善AI。</p><p>分析师强调,<strong>谷歌自研芯片的跨越式发展是其算力战略的核心。</strong></p><p>即将全面上市的TPU v7(Ironwood)在性能上实现了质的飞跃,单芯片计算能力较上一代TPU v5p提升超过十倍,峰值带宽达7.4 TB/s。</p><p>在集群架构上,Ironwood继续沿用且优化了3D Torus(三维环面)拓扑结构。该架构允许将多个“4×4×4”的立方体构建块动态组合,单集群规模可扩展至9216颗芯片。为<strong>了匹配这一极高的算力密度,TPU v7开始配置1.6T光模块,这也带动了市场对高速光模块需求的预期上修。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d66ead2b02cb9ca1f149b4ca41a9e71\" tg-width=\"1573\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p><strong>供应链调研指出,2026年谷歌TPU将成为全球自研ASIC市场的主力,预计出货量远高于AWS Trainium或Microsoft Maia等竞品。随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>GB200与谷歌TPU v7的双重拉动,2026年行业1.6T光模块需求有望上修至2000万只以上。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c77cb83d19af7d01f492810c883f623c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"350\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3408044160\">OCS:打破传统电交换瓶颈的关键技术</h2><p>中泰证券表示,<strong>谷歌在AI数据中心大规模引入OCS(光电路交换机)的核心逻辑在于解决大规模扩展(Scale-Out)带来的功耗与效率难题。</strong></p><p>传统数据中心架构正在失效。在传统Clos架构中,随着算力集群规模指数级扩张,基于电信号的分组交换机(EPS)面临着严重的功耗散热问题和昂贵的布线成本。<strong>据Cisco测算,数据中心交换系统的总功耗在过去十余年间提升了22倍。</strong></p><p><strong>谷歌引入OCS,本质上是用物理光路直接传输数据,彻底抛弃了“光—电—光”的信号转换过程。</strong></p><p>这其中,OCS是实现服务器解耦(Server Disaggregation)的关键,它允许计算资源跨机架动态编排,像搭积木一样组合算力,从而突破了静态机架的资源浪费瓶颈。在Ironwood集群中,48台OCS交换机连接了9216个TPU芯片,构建了一个低延迟、高带宽的动态光子网络。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b3e33d0d1457a0c2d0be835df9c4d8f\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"354\"/></p><p>数据证明了这一技术路线的优越性:<strong>引入OCS定制化网络后,谷歌网络的吞吐量提升了30%,功耗降低了40%,网络宕机时间减少了50倍,最关键的是,它让资本开支减少了30%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ded48346a0435ddce8a6f92992fa25e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3899894281\">解构谷歌OCS:独特的MEMS技术与定制光器件价值</h2><p>中泰证券表示,理解“谷歌链”的投资价值,必须理解OCS的物理构成。</p><p>目前谷歌主流的Palomar OCS基于MEMS(微机电系统)方案,拥有136个光路通道(实际使用128路)。其核心工作原理是通过2D MEMS微镜阵列反射光信号,实现毫秒级的光路切换,无需光收发器进行电信号转换。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/323818e7cb4e9ba64d2f47146605ddad\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><p>这套系统带来了一系列独特的硬件需求。</p><p>首先是定制光模块,谷歌在光模块中内置了环形器(Circulator),实现了单根光纤的双向传输,这使得所需的端口和光缆数量不仅比传统胖树架构减少了40%,还创造了环形器这一增量市场。</p><p>其次是核心光学元件,包括MEMS阵列、准直器、2D透镜阵列等,这些精密光学元器件的单机价值量极高。此外,虽然谷歌目前主推MEMS方案,但也正在探索液晶、压电陶瓷和硅光波导等新技术路径,为供应链上的技术创新者提供了潜在的入局机会。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c9e1253661a8d67a5a0f55ae29ab37c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p>OCS技术的崛起为光通信产业链带来了全新的增量环节。随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>等其他云服务商也开始探索OCS应用,Lightcounting预测2024-2029年OCS市场将以28%的复合增速增长,行业正迎来技术与需求的双重爆发期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37c5c90bcd64f66787a9b18a2bfa699e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一文读懂“谷歌链”:AI全栈式创新,TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一文读懂“谷歌链”:AI全栈式创新,TPU+OCS共塑下一代智算网络\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-25 16:39 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760084><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在AI军备竞赛日益白热化的背景下,谷歌正凭借其从芯片到网络的“全栈式”创新构筑独特的算力护城河。在中泰证券看来,这一轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS(光电路交换机)技术,谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈,更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。TPU与OCS的深度耦合,不仅支撑了Gemini等大模型的高效迭代,也直接带动了上游...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760084\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69bda624dad1064625bad9c30f3beafa","relate_stocks":{"LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1059921491.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY \"HB\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760084","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2586879428","content_text":"在AI军备竞赛日益白热化的背景下,谷歌正凭借其从芯片到网络的“全栈式”创新构筑独特的算力护城河。在中泰证券看来,这一轮“谷歌链”爆发的关键技术变量在于OCS光交换技术的全面引入。通过深度整合自研TPU芯片与OCS(光电路交换机)技术,谷歌不仅突破了传统数据中心的能效与扩展瓶颈,更为下一代智算网络确立了新的架构标准。TPU与OCS的深度耦合,不仅支撑了Gemini等大模型的高效迭代,也直接带动了上游光模块(特别是1.6T)、MEMS芯片、光器件等产业链环节的增量需求。AI数据中心正从静态架构向动态光子互联演进。TPU v7“Ironwood”放量:ASIC市场的主导力量中泰证券认为,谷歌AI已围绕芯片(TPU)—网络(OCS)—模型(Gemini)—应用(云计算/搜索/广告等)全栈优势构筑护城河。从2011年谷歌成立谷歌大脑 (Google Brain)实验室开始涉足AI开始,一系列具有影响力的AI研究相继问世,包括2017年发布Transformer架构到2023年推出多模态大模型Gemini,目前已形成从芯片到集群架构到大模型再到应用端的布局,谷歌将AI逐步整合到多元业务流程中,这些业务为谷歌获取了海量数据,用于训练完善AI。分析师强调,谷歌自研芯片的跨越式发展是其算力战略的核心。即将全面上市的TPU v7(Ironwood)在性能上实现了质的飞跃,单芯片计算能力较上一代TPU v5p提升超过十倍,峰值带宽达7.4 TB/s。在集群架构上,Ironwood继续沿用且优化了3D Torus(三维环面)拓扑结构。该架构允许将多个“4×4×4”的立方体构建块动态组合,单集群规模可扩展至9216颗芯片。为了匹配这一极高的算力密度,TPU v7开始配置1.6T光模块,这也带动了市场对高速光模块需求的预期上修。供应链调研指出,2026年谷歌TPU将成为全球自研ASIC市场的主力,预计出货量远高于AWS Trainium或Microsoft Maia等竞品。随着英伟达GB200与谷歌TPU v7的双重拉动,2026年行业1.6T光模块需求有望上修至2000万只以上。OCS:打破传统电交换瓶颈的关键技术中泰证券表示,谷歌在AI数据中心大规模引入OCS(光电路交换机)的核心逻辑在于解决大规模扩展(Scale-Out)带来的功耗与效率难题。传统数据中心架构正在失效。在传统Clos架构中,随着算力集群规模指数级扩张,基于电信号的分组交换机(EPS)面临着严重的功耗散热问题和昂贵的布线成本。据Cisco测算,数据中心交换系统的总功耗在过去十余年间提升了22倍。谷歌引入OCS,本质上是用物理光路直接传输数据,彻底抛弃了“光—电—光”的信号转换过程。这其中,OCS是实现服务器解耦(Server Disaggregation)的关键,它允许计算资源跨机架动态编排,像搭积木一样组合算力,从而突破了静态机架的资源浪费瓶颈。在Ironwood集群中,48台OCS交换机连接了9216个TPU芯片,构建了一个低延迟、高带宽的动态光子网络。数据证明了这一技术路线的优越性:引入OCS定制化网络后,谷歌网络的吞吐量提升了30%,功耗降低了40%,网络宕机时间减少了50倍,最关键的是,它让资本开支减少了30%。解构谷歌OCS:独特的MEMS技术与定制光器件价值中泰证券表示,理解“谷歌链”的投资价值,必须理解OCS的物理构成。目前谷歌主流的Palomar OCS基于MEMS(微机电系统)方案,拥有136个光路通道(实际使用128路)。其核心工作原理是通过2D MEMS微镜阵列反射光信号,实现毫秒级的光路切换,无需光收发器进行电信号转换。这套系统带来了一系列独特的硬件需求。首先是定制光模块,谷歌在光模块中内置了环形器(Circulator),实现了单根光纤的双向传输,这使得所需的端口和光缆数量不仅比传统胖树架构减少了40%,还创造了环形器这一增量市场。其次是核心光学元件,包括MEMS阵列、准直器、2D透镜阵列等,这些精密光学元器件的单机价值量极高。此外,虽然谷歌目前主推MEMS方案,但也正在探索液晶、压电陶瓷和硅光波导等新技术路径,为供应链上的技术创新者提供了潜在的入局机会。OCS技术的崛起为光通信产业链带来了全新的增量环节。随着微软、Meta等其他云服务商也开始探索OCS应用,Lightcounting预测2024-2029年OCS市场将以28%的复合增速增长,行业正迎来技术与需求的双重爆发期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":1.5,"GOOG":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504028146819216,"gmtCreate":1764063939258,"gmtModify":1764063941596,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"竞争中也有合作","listText":"竞争中也有合作","text":"竞争中也有合作","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504028146819216","repostId":"1191898700","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191898700","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1764061059,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191898700?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 16:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银:OpenAI造成两难局面,给科技巨头带来冲击","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191898700","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>由OpenAI推动的庞大资本支出循环,是今年最重要的市场趋势之一,但美银发表的研究报告认为,最终可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。</p><p>OpenAI处于风险边缘,美银分析师Justin Post近日点出一个尴尬情况:AI超大规模运算业者一方面急着与OpenAI签约,另一方面却同时在与这家ChatGPT开发商竞争。</p><p>外界一直在思考,<strong>OpenAI的烧钱扩张到底能持续多久、规模能到多大,特别是该公司投入的资金已超过其可预期的营收。</strong>不过,美银分析师Justin Post指出,最终可能出现更多问题的,其实是那些与OpenAI签订合作的大型科技公司。Post表示,投资者应把格局拉大,因为OpenAI正在重塑更广泛的科技版图。他说:“战略风险是双面的。如果OpenAI成功,它就会成为更大的竞争威胁;但如果公司未达内部目标,可能无法充分使用已签约的运算资源,进而造成产能过剩、拖累云端产业营收。”</p><p>但是,有风险的并不只有这些超大规模运算业者。随这家新创持续扩张,美银也认为OpenAI将在短期内争夺行销与广告预算,对Meta与YouTube等巨头产生负面影响。如何达到收入目标,均是大家心中的问题,而OpenAI到底会否拓展广告业务,亦未可料。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美银:OpenAI造成两难局面,给科技巨头带来冲击</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银:OpenAI造成两难局面,给科技巨头带来冲击\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-25 16:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>由OpenAI推动的庞大资本支出循环,是今年最重要的市场趋势之一,但美银发表的研究报告认为,最终可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。</p><p>OpenAI处于风险边缘,美银分析师Justin Post近日点出一个尴尬情况:AI超大规模运算业者一方面急着与OpenAI签约,另一方面却同时在与这家ChatGPT开发商竞争。</p><p>外界一直在思考,<strong>OpenAI的烧钱扩张到底能持续多久、规模能到多大,特别是该公司投入的资金已超过其可预期的营收。</strong>不过,美银分析师Justin Post指出,最终可能出现更多问题的,其实是那些与OpenAI签订合作的大型科技公司。Post表示,投资者应把格局拉大,因为OpenAI正在重塑更广泛的科技版图。他说:“战略风险是双面的。如果OpenAI成功,它就会成为更大的竞争威胁;但如果公司未达内部目标,可能无法充分使用已签约的运算资源,进而造成产能过剩、拖累云端产业营收。”</p><p>但是,有风险的并不只有这些超大规模运算业者。随这家新创持续扩张,美银也认为OpenAI将在短期内争夺行销与广告预算,对Meta与YouTube等巨头产生负面影响。如何达到收入目标,均是大家心中的问题,而OpenAI到底会否拓展广告业务,亦未可料。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760056d3ed9e8c1a595c0d9f2094cc4d","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","GOOG":"谷歌","MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191898700","content_text":"由OpenAI推动的庞大资本支出循环,是今年最重要的市场趋势之一,但美银发表的研究报告认为,最终可能会为美国科技巨头带来麻烦。OpenAI处于风险边缘,美银分析师Justin Post近日点出一个尴尬情况:AI超大规模运算业者一方面急着与OpenAI签约,另一方面却同时在与这家ChatGPT开发商竞争。外界一直在思考,OpenAI的烧钱扩张到底能持续多久、规模能到多大,特别是该公司投入的资金已超过其可预期的营收。不过,美银分析师Justin Post指出,最终可能出现更多问题的,其实是那些与OpenAI签订合作的大型科技公司。Post表示,投资者应把格局拉大,因为OpenAI正在重塑更广泛的科技版图。他说:“战略风险是双面的。如果OpenAI成功,它就会成为更大的竞争威胁;但如果公司未达内部目标,可能无法充分使用已签约的运算资源,进而造成产能过剩、拖累云端产业营收。”但是,有风险的并不只有这些超大规模运算业者。随这家新创持续扩张,美银也认为OpenAI将在短期内争夺行销与广告预算,对Meta与YouTube等巨头产生负面影响。如何达到收入目标,均是大家心中的问题,而OpenAI到底会否拓展广告业务,亦未可料。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":2,"TSLA":2,"NVDA":2,"MSFT":2,"META":2,"AMZN":2,"AAPL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504027646542656,"gmtCreate":1764063695006,"gmtModify":1764063697307,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"做空的来争夺话语权了","listText":"做空的来争夺话语权了","text":"做空的来争夺话语权了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504027646542656","repostId":"2586255444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2586255444","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764061740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586255444?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 17:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586255444","media":"Ofweek光电信息网","summary":"但这背后,实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争,甚至对于强大的阿里,只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。阿里的压力也很大,多个领域同时开战。▌1、全面竞争的陷阱大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张,雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。电商和AI,阿里都面临着强敌的竞争,阿里既要守住电商的大本营,又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。","content":"<html><body><article><p>一片掌声之下,阿里开始变得不对劲。</p><p>最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”,比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩,一个是首周下载突破千万,一个是上线6天下载突破200万。</p><p>更早之前,是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户,淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。</p><p>这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向:电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量,一个是以AI为代表的技术线找突破。</p><p>阿里新业务看上去形势一片大好。</p><p>但是业界也有人士评论阿里的高调宣传之下,“宣传是很加分,猛一看,还以为阿里已经打完仗赢了呢。”</p><p>但这背后,实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争,甚至对于强大的阿里,只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。</p><p>阿里的压力也很大,多个领域同时开战。</p><p>说实话,要不是这家公司是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>,如此多业务同时开展,换做任何一家其他公司身上,都会被扣上盲目扩张、战略失焦、多元化陷阱等“帽子”。</p><p><strong>▌1、全面竞争的陷阱</strong></p><p>大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张,雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。</p><p>一家在移动互联网时代买下半个互联网的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>,一家“富可敌国“、被称作”史上从来没出现过的庞然大物”的阿里巴巴。</p><p>这是曾经阿里的“荣誉称号”,但这并不代表阿里巴巴当下的处境以及应对策略是最优的,以及可被理解的。</p><p>阿里早已经不是那个“一超多强”下的阿里了。</p><p>他的对手诸如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、字节,早已经不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>。当年资金、资源雄厚的阿里巴巴用钱都砸不死的创业公司,凭什么现在就能打赢呢?</p><p>另外,阿里巴巴从前也没有过在多个战场、多线作战的经验。</p><p>阿里巴巴曾经在电商、移动互联网、支付、云服务等多个业务场景和国内的巨头掰手腕,但是不难发现阿里都是凭借在上一个阶段的优势,拿下下一个阶段的胜利。</p><p>比如从电商到支付,从移动互联网到云服务,这些都是基于过往的业务优势。</p><p>正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>从QQ到微信,从移动互联网入口到整个内容生态,双方结果也是并没有在对方的领域里讨到好处。</p><p>现在的竞争状态完全不同。电商和AI,阿里都面临着强敌的竞争,阿里既要守住电商的大本营,又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。</p><p>AI大模型领域,阿里是开源强,并非是C端强。</p><p>千问的改版和Gemini 3的发布就差了一天,但是口碑却“天差地别”。</p><p>同样是铺天盖地的宣传和报道,但Gemini 3是自来水。在这一天,很多尝试过Gemini 3的都感叹,大模型的竞争要结束了。</p><p>相比之下,千问还在理不清定位和名字的阶段。从千问的对外宣传来看,还在基础的作图、识图、对话这些基本的功能上。</p><p>这么说话可能有点重。</p><p>但是,千问不是一个新推出的应用啊。</p><p>2023年阿里就推出了通义千问大模型,到现在2年半了阿里还在改通义千问的名字,说实话属于依然没想清楚的阶段。</p><p>相信很多人之前都听到一种说法,阿里的大模型全球第一,李飞飞都是用的通义做训练。</p><p>其实这和千问不是一个层面的问题。阿里大模型是开源第一,相比于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>的llama衍生模型更多。</p><p>举个例子,这就好比阿里云市场份额第一,但是阿里的APP依然弹窗一堆,体验非常差。</p><p>阿里的开源大模型就好比阿里云,是基础设施、是行业第一,但是C端的大模型就像是阿里的APP,这两个没有必然联系。</p><p><strong>▌2、阿里还是“阿Q”?</strong></p><p>最近阿里公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩,一个是首周下载突破千万,一个是上线6天下载突破200万。</p><p>铺天盖地的宣传,不禁想起了一个月前的高德扫街榜。</p><p>同样配方。</p><p>高德扫街榜推出前几日,互联网上渲染出阿里保密3个月的神秘项目,并且高德扫街榜被宣传为阿里对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>点评的核心产品。</p><p>在不久后的国庆节假期,阿里对高德扫肩棒进行了高密度的宣传和推广。</p><p>尤其是在假期之后,阿里对高德的成果的定义是达到了4亿的日活。</p><p>这种通过小道消息放料预热、产品发出后正面宣传的结合,是阿里多年来手到擒来的拿手好戏,当年最著名的就是阿里巴巴和苏宁的重大资本合作,通过保密→放料→预热→发布,这一路径给市场带来了充分的噱头。</p><p>千问改版前,也有消息传出阿里已抽调上百名工程师秘密办公,杭州总部园区两层办公楼被划为项目专属区域,同时研发面向全球市场的国际版千问APP,计划与ChatGPT争夺海外用户。</p><p>并且还有戏剧性的传闻,阿里的保密项目因为“食堂的粤菜窗口开始排起长龙,烧鸭饭都要卖脱销了”这一野史般的小道消息,被外界判断阿里的项目和AI有关,因为业内有个传闻,“中国AI看广东”,比如DeepSeek创始人、Qwen大语言模型负责人等AI大佬都是广东人。</p><p>并非说宣传是加分项还是减分项,但是市场越来越偏向于理工科的行事方式,也越来越倾向于直来直去、专心业务的打法,而不是这种花里胡哨的行为。</p><p>尤其是如果产品本身还不够能打的话,宣传就会在秋后算账中算作是减分项,因为你不仅混淆了市场的视听,自己也会被虚假的繁荣蒙蔽。</p><p>阿里这半年来给市场的数据也不是足够让人信服。</p><p>比如说高德扫街榜用户达到4亿这一数字,统计口径是如何的就并不是很清晰。</p><p>比如说抖音用了数年的时间,才达到了4亿的用户/日活。比如说视频号在微信的全力推广下,用了半年时间也才到2亿用户。</p><p>那么高德扫街榜的4亿用户是怎么计算的呢?</p><p>再比如说,通义千问已经上线了3年的基础上,改名为千问后首周下载突破千万,那么阿里为了达到这一数据在各个平台上投放了多少呢?这些数据综合起来看可能才会更加清晰。</p><p><strong>▌3、对账</strong></p><p>很多事情后来大家就发现不对劲了。</p><p>比如说,闪购打了几个月的补贴大战后,questmobile的数据显示淘宝的月活竟然增幅远远小于美团。</p><p>今年11月questmobile发布的秋季大数据显示,淘宝在今年9月份的月活跃用户为9.8亿,同比增长4.1%。美团的月活用户为5.2亿,同比增长7%,而大众点评的月活用户为1.59亿,同比增长28.8%,是这三者中增速最高的。</p><p>值得注意的是,这个数据是同比的数据。也就说闪购给淘宝带来的月活规模增长并没有那么明显,闪购只算是激活了淘宝的老用户,而不是拉来了新用户。</p><p>要知道,2025年自然年第二季度销售和市场费用从327亿元大幅增长到532亿元,增幅高达62.7%,多花了200多亿元,新用户就增长了4.1%,相当于每个新用户的获取成本就高达500元。</p><p>高德扫街榜在一波热潮之下,主观感受来讲,现在也较少被阿里提及到了。</p><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member99956776/202511/25165855354109.png\"/><p>(淘宝同比增速较低,数据来自questmobile秋季大报告)</p><p>淘宝闪购的团购业务,最终的结果貌似也不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>。</p><p>今年9月淘宝闪购在外卖烧钱大战之后,开始启动到店团购业务,首批复盖上海、深圳、嘉兴三地的核心商业区域,涉及茶饮、甜品、正餐、自助餐及城市特色小吃等多个餐饮品类。</p><p>但是到了两个月后,据《第一财经》YiMagazine报道,团购业务已不再是淘宝闪购的业务重心,相关业务已转移到高德。</p><p>原因是,团购业务“没有做起来,第一批试点的水花没有那么大,淘宝闪购的团购业务在最初试点那几天部分商家核销是0单。”</p><p>阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。</p><p>财报显示二季度收入2476亿元同比增长2%,若不考虑银<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300801\">泰和</a>高新零售的已处置业务的收入,同口径收入同比增长将为10%,其中,电商业务收入为1186亿元同比增长10%,主要是take rate提升带动,而非GMV。</p><p>这意味着经历了几年较低的货币化率之后,阿里电商业务可能要重新提高货币化率,而货币化率是电商生态的关键指标,简单来说,就是货币化率越低,商家压力越小。</p><p>毕竟,电商业务是阿里的核心,希望不要在若干年后行业总结阿里的失败经验时提到,“因为错误地进行多元化尝试...,为对手创造机会...”。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里正陷入全面竞争的陷阱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-25 17:09 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b><strong>Ofweek光电信息网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一片掌声之下,阿里开始变得不对劲。最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”,比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩,一个是首周下载突破千万,一个是上线6天下载突破200万。更早之前,是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户,淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向:电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量,一个是以AI为代表的技术线找...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0545039389.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A2\" ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4558":"双十一","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA 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INC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251125171835a7104401&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586255444","content_text":"一片掌声之下,阿里开始变得不对劲。最近半年阿里频频公布“战绩”,比如像前两天公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩,一个是首周下载突破千万,一个是上线6天下载突破200万。更早之前,是阿里主打的点评类产品高德扫街榜上线23天突破4亿用户,淘宝闪购日订单量突破1亿。这也是阿里今年的两个战略核心方向:电商+AI。一个是以闪购为代表的电商业务线找增量,一个是以AI为代表的技术线找突破。阿里新业务看上去形势一片大好。但是业界也有人士评论阿里的高调宣传之下,“宣传是很加分,猛一看,还以为阿里已经打完仗赢了呢。”但这背后,实际上是今年以来阿里多个领域面临高度竞争,甚至对于强大的阿里,只能采取跟随战略来保证自身不掉队。阿里的压力也很大,多个领域同时开战。说实话,要不是这家公司是阿里巴巴,如此多业务同时开展,换做任何一家其他公司身上,都会被扣上盲目扩张、战略失焦、多元化陷阱等“帽子”。▌1、全面竞争的陷阱大家熟悉了曾经的阿里四面作战、到处扩张,雄厚的资金储备以及具备强劲盈利能力的电商业务为阿里提供了充足的试错空间。一家在移动互联网时代买下半个互联网的阿里巴巴,一家“富可敌国“、被称作”史上从来没出现过的庞然大物”的阿里巴巴。这是曾经阿里的“荣誉称号”,但这并不代表阿里巴巴当下的处境以及应对策略是最优的,以及可被理解的。阿里早已经不是那个“一超多强”下的阿里了。他的对手诸如美团、字节,早已经不是创业公司。当年资金、资源雄厚的阿里巴巴用钱都砸不死的创业公司,凭什么现在就能打赢呢?另外,阿里巴巴从前也没有过在多个战场、多线作战的经验。阿里巴巴曾经在电商、移动互联网、支付、云服务等多个业务场景和国内的巨头掰手腕,但是不难发现阿里都是凭借在上一个阶段的优势,拿下下一个阶段的胜利。比如从电商到支付,从移动互联网到云服务,这些都是基于过往的业务优势。正如腾讯从QQ到微信,从移动互联网入口到整个内容生态,双方结果也是并没有在对方的领域里讨到好处。现在的竞争状态完全不同。电商和AI,阿里都面临着强敌的竞争,阿里既要守住电商的大本营,又要和新贵们争夺AI高地。AI大模型领域,阿里是开源强,并非是C端强。千问的改版和Gemini 3的发布就差了一天,但是口碑却“天差地别”。同样是铺天盖地的宣传和报道,但Gemini 3是自来水。在这一天,很多尝试过Gemini 3的都感叹,大模型的竞争要结束了。相比之下,千问还在理不清定位和名字的阶段。从千问的对外宣传来看,还在基础的作图、识图、对话这些基本的功能上。这么说话可能有点重。但是,千问不是一个新推出的应用啊。2023年阿里就推出了通义千问大模型,到现在2年半了阿里还在改通义千问的名字,说实话属于依然没想清楚的阶段。相信很多人之前都听到一种说法,阿里的大模型全球第一,李飞飞都是用的通义做训练。其实这和千问不是一个层面的问题。阿里大模型是开源第一,相比于Meta的llama衍生模型更多。举个例子,这就好比阿里云市场份额第一,但是阿里的APP依然弹窗一堆,体验非常差。阿里的开源大模型就好比阿里云,是基础设施、是行业第一,但是C端的大模型就像是阿里的APP,这两个没有必然联系。▌2、阿里还是“阿Q”?最近阿里公布了旗下大模型APP千问和蚂蚁旗下大模型助手灵光APP的成绩,一个是首周下载突破千万,一个是上线6天下载突破200万。铺天盖地的宣传,不禁想起了一个月前的高德扫街榜。同样配方。高德扫街榜推出前几日,互联网上渲染出阿里保密3个月的神秘项目,并且高德扫街榜被宣传为阿里对标美团点评的核心产品。在不久后的国庆节假期,阿里对高德扫肩棒进行了高密度的宣传和推广。尤其是在假期之后,阿里对高德的成果的定义是达到了4亿的日活。这种通过小道消息放料预热、产品发出后正面宣传的结合,是阿里多年来手到擒来的拿手好戏,当年最著名的就是阿里巴巴和苏宁的重大资本合作,通过保密→放料→预热→发布,这一路径给市场带来了充分的噱头。千问改版前,也有消息传出阿里已抽调上百名工程师秘密办公,杭州总部园区两层办公楼被划为项目专属区域,同时研发面向全球市场的国际版千问APP,计划与ChatGPT争夺海外用户。并且还有戏剧性的传闻,阿里的保密项目因为“食堂的粤菜窗口开始排起长龙,烧鸭饭都要卖脱销了”这一野史般的小道消息,被外界判断阿里的项目和AI有关,因为业内有个传闻,“中国AI看广东”,比如DeepSeek创始人、Qwen大语言模型负责人等AI大佬都是广东人。并非说宣传是加分项还是减分项,但是市场越来越偏向于理工科的行事方式,也越来越倾向于直来直去、专心业务的打法,而不是这种花里胡哨的行为。尤其是如果产品本身还不够能打的话,宣传就会在秋后算账中算作是减分项,因为你不仅混淆了市场的视听,自己也会被虚假的繁荣蒙蔽。阿里这半年来给市场的数据也不是足够让人信服。比如说高德扫街榜用户达到4亿这一数字,统计口径是如何的就并不是很清晰。比如说抖音用了数年的时间,才达到了4亿的用户/日活。比如说视频号在微信的全力推广下,用了半年时间也才到2亿用户。那么高德扫街榜的4亿用户是怎么计算的呢?再比如说,通义千问已经上线了3年的基础上,改名为千问后首周下载突破千万,那么阿里为了达到这一数据在各个平台上投放了多少呢?这些数据综合起来看可能才会更加清晰。▌3、对账很多事情后来大家就发现不对劲了。比如说,闪购打了几个月的补贴大战后,questmobile的数据显示淘宝的月活竟然增幅远远小于美团。今年11月questmobile发布的秋季大数据显示,淘宝在今年9月份的月活跃用户为9.8亿,同比增长4.1%。美团的月活用户为5.2亿,同比增长7%,而大众点评的月活用户为1.59亿,同比增长28.8%,是这三者中增速最高的。值得注意的是,这个数据是同比的数据。也就说闪购给淘宝带来的月活规模增长并没有那么明显,闪购只算是激活了淘宝的老用户,而不是拉来了新用户。要知道,2025年自然年第二季度销售和市场费用从327亿元大幅增长到532亿元,增幅高达62.7%,多花了200多亿元,新用户就增长了4.1%,相当于每个新用户的获取成本就高达500元。高德扫街榜在一波热潮之下,主观感受来讲,现在也较少被阿里提及到了。(淘宝同比增速较低,数据来自questmobile秋季大报告)淘宝闪购的团购业务,最终的结果貌似也不理想。今年9月淘宝闪购在外卖烧钱大战之后,开始启动到店团购业务,首批复盖上海、深圳、嘉兴三地的核心商业区域,涉及茶饮、甜品、正餐、自助餐及城市特色小吃等多个餐饮品类。但是到了两个月后,据《第一财经》YiMagazine报道,团购业务已不再是淘宝闪购的业务重心,相关业务已转移到高德。原因是,团购业务“没有做起来,第一批试点的水花没有那么大,淘宝闪购的团购业务在最初试点那几天部分商家核销是0单。”阿里巴巴第二季度的业绩并不好。财报显示二季度收入2476亿元同比增长2%,若不考虑银泰和高新零售的已处置业务的收入,同口径收入同比增长将为10%,其中,电商业务收入为1186亿元同比增长10%,主要是take rate提升带动,而非GMV。这意味着经历了几年较低的货币化率之后,阿里电商业务可能要重新提高货币化率,而货币化率是电商生态的关键指标,简单来说,就是货币化率越低,商家压力越小。毕竟,电商业务是阿里的核心,希望不要在若干年后行业总结阿里的失败经验时提到,“因为错误地进行多元化尝试...,为对手创造机会...”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"BABA":1.5,"ALBmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503842529272160,"gmtCreate":1764030679362,"gmtModify":1764030681784,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"认同产业分析师","listText":"认同产业分析师","text":"认同产业分析师","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/503842529272160","repostId":"1137565525","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137565525","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764002964,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137565525?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-25 00:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论:DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137565525","media":"智通财经","summary":"并非财务异常。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 近期公布亮眼季度业绩与前瞻后股价反而下跌,使得市场看空声音有所升温。部分做空者将焦点放在应收账款天数(DSO)上升与库存增加这两项指标,引发对公司财务质量的担忧。然而,天风国际分析师郭明錤表示,这些质疑并无充分依据,也未正确理解英伟达当前的业务结构变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">智通财经APP获悉,郭明錤指出,英伟达本财年第三季度的应收账款天数从过去数年的平均46天上升至53天,被部分批评者视为“财务恶化甚至造假”的迹象,但这种看法忽略了应收账款集中度大幅提升这一关键因素。过去财年英伟达来自大客户的应收账款占比平均仅23.8%,在本季度则攀升至65%。随着账款更集中于少数大型客户,付款周期拉长是合理现象,尤其云端服务提供商(CSPs)一直以来都有较长账期,这是行业惯例,反映的是大客户更强的议价能力,而非财务异常。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,他批评做空者选择了错误的对标公司。多空双方对比的是并非主要服务云端客户的企业,因此得出的结论失真。若将英伟达与同样以CSPs为主要客户的厂商比较,例如Arista、Celestica 和Vertiv,这些公司的应收账款天数通常都超过60至70天。相较之下,英伟达目前53天的DSO不但不异常,反而位于合理区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于库存,市场也出现“需求不振”或“数据造假”的揣测,因为英伟达库存环比增长32%,似乎与黄仁勋口中的云端GPU“全部售罄”不符。郭明錤对此回应指出,做空者的比较基准同样存在事实错误。首先,FY23第二季度库存并未下降,而是环比增长约23%至38.89亿美元。其次,本季度库存的32%环比增长,与上游产能扩张趋势高度一致。台积电CoWoS(晶圆上芯片封装)月产能估计在今年第三季度环比增加25至30%,提升至每月约6万片。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更重要的是,本季度英伟达库存中“在制品”(Work-in-Process)占比最高,达到总库存的44.2%,金额环比大增98%至87.35亿美元。这主要反映今年第三季度开始大量量产全新Blackwell架构的B300 GPU,而非库存积压。郭明錤强调,这不仅不是财务异常,而是显示英伟达已提前为B300的强劲需求做准备。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤认为,市场对英伟达的财务指标出现误读,相关批评忽视了客户结构变化、行业账期特性与产能周期的影响。库存与应收账款天数的变化均可由业务扩张与新品量产解释,与所谓的“财务造假”毫无关联。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论:DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n知名分析师郭明錤驳斥英伟达做空论:DSO与库存上升属业务正常扩张\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-25 00:49 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1373004.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英伟达 近期公布亮眼季度业绩与前瞻后股价反而下跌,使得市场看空声音有所升温。部分做空者将焦点放在应收账款天数(DSO)上升与库存增加这两项指标,引发对公司财务质量的担忧。然而,天风国际分析师郭明錤表示,这些质疑并无充分依据,也未正确理解英伟达当前的业务结构变化。智通财经APP获悉,郭明錤指出,英伟达本财年第三季度的应收账款天数从过去数年的平均46天上升至53天,被部分批评者视为“财务恶化甚至造假”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1373004.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c9663e6a82dc37414aadf986627f512","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1373004.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1137565525","content_text":"英伟达 近期公布亮眼季度业绩与前瞻后股价反而下跌,使得市场看空声音有所升温。部分做空者将焦点放在应收账款天数(DSO)上升与库存增加这两项指标,引发对公司财务质量的担忧。然而,天风国际分析师郭明錤表示,这些质疑并无充分依据,也未正确理解英伟达当前的业务结构变化。智通财经APP获悉,郭明錤指出,英伟达本财年第三季度的应收账款天数从过去数年的平均46天上升至53天,被部分批评者视为“财务恶化甚至造假”的迹象,但这种看法忽略了应收账款集中度大幅提升这一关键因素。过去财年英伟达来自大客户的应收账款占比平均仅23.8%,在本季度则攀升至65%。随着账款更集中于少数大型客户,付款周期拉长是合理现象,尤其云端服务提供商(CSPs)一直以来都有较长账期,这是行业惯例,反映的是大客户更强的议价能力,而非财务异常。此外,他批评做空者选择了错误的对标公司。多空双方对比的是并非主要服务云端客户的企业,因此得出的结论失真。若将英伟达与同样以CSPs为主要客户的厂商比较,例如Arista、Celestica 和Vertiv,这些公司的应收账款天数通常都超过60至70天。相较之下,英伟达目前53天的DSO不但不异常,反而位于合理区间。关于库存,市场也出现“需求不振”或“数据造假”的揣测,因为英伟达库存环比增长32%,似乎与黄仁勋口中的云端GPU“全部售罄”不符。郭明錤对此回应指出,做空者的比较基准同样存在事实错误。首先,FY23第二季度库存并未下降,而是环比增长约23%至38.89亿美元。其次,本季度库存的32%环比增长,与上游产能扩张趋势高度一致。台积电CoWoS(晶圆上芯片封装)月产能估计在今年第三季度环比增加25至30%,提升至每月约6万片。更重要的是,本季度英伟达库存中“在制品”(Work-in-Process)占比最高,达到总库存的44.2%,金额环比大增98%至87.35亿美元。这主要反映今年第三季度开始大量量产全新Blackwell架构的B300 GPU,而非库存积压。郭明錤强调,这不仅不是财务异常,而是显示英伟达已提前为B300的强劲需求做准备。郭明錤认为,市场对英伟达的财务指标出现误读,相关批评忽视了客户结构变化、行业账期特性与产能周期的影响。库存与应收账款天数的变化均可由业务扩张与新品量产解释,与所谓的“财务造假”毫无关联。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502559968362536,"gmtCreate":1763723498828,"gmtModify":1763723501466,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"人家赖得搭理你还卖翘,浪费生命时间,马斯克连巴菲特都看不起,认为一生不为社会创造价值。","listText":"人家赖得搭理你还卖翘,浪费生命时间,马斯克连巴菲特都看不起,认为一生不为社会创造价值。","text":"人家赖得搭理你还卖翘,浪费生命时间,马斯克连巴菲特都看不起,认为一生不为社会创造价值。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502559968362536","repostId":"2585212115","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585212115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763718923,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585212115?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 17:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"段永平:我不想跟马斯克做朋友,但投资特斯拉还是可以的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585212115","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在近日的访谈中,段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友,我不想跟他做朋友”。然而,话音未落,他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。对此,段永平表示:“不做朋友但还是可以投资的。”面对部分网友的询问,段永平也进行了回应:“不是玩笑,是认真的。”另有网友询问段永平是直接购买股票,还是卖Put。但是特斯拉的电动车做出了差异化。不仅段永平对特斯拉的态度变了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>段永平近日表示已开始投资特斯拉,采用卖出短期认沽期权的方式。尽管他此前明确表示不喜欢马斯克品行、不想与其做朋友,但认可马斯克能力和特斯拉产品差异化优势。他坚持"做朋友是一回事,投资是另一回事",判断十年后回看这笔投资可能是对的。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">做朋友是一回事儿,投资是另一回事儿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在近日的访谈中,段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友,我不想跟他做朋友”。然而,话音未落,他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。对此,段永平表示:“不做朋友但还是可以投资的。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4116518923\" style=\"text-align: left;\">段永平买入特斯拉</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">11月20日,段永平在雪球上公开发文表示:“最近终于再多花了点时间看了很多马斯克的东西。面对他的那么多厉害的产品,我上个礼拜和这个礼拜已经开始投点在特斯拉上了,满意了吧?最近几年确实感受到马斯克的厉害,而且他的第一性原理我是很好理解的。不做朋友但还是可以投资的嘛,反正他也不打球。就当风投吧,我觉得10年后回头看,这个投资也许是对的。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一石激起千层浪,网友们对此议论纷纷。面对部分网友的询问,段永平也进行了回应:“不是玩笑,是认真的。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb040b3ad4f6b4e0e44bd728135f7a1b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"699\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另有网友询问段永平是直接购买股票,还是卖Put。段永平表示:“我卖put了,我很可能会一直卖,除非我又又又改变想法了。目前以卖短期的put为主,因为年化比较高(我觉得也许不至于就一飞冲天了吧)。我卖put的时候最重要的就是想一点:这个价钱卖给我10年后回头看是个便宜的价钱吗?如果答案是不便宜,那这个put就不可以卖。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce522e5e0acc5774623225b49b68c42\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得一提的是,在近日与雪球创始人方三文的对话中,段永平曾谈及对特斯拉的看法。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示:“马斯克这个人厉害,他有很多想法,也确实是很先进的。但是投资我觉得比较难,从个人的角度来讲,我不是很喜欢这个人的品行。你投资实际上是在跟他做朋友,我不想跟他做朋友,哪怕给我钱我也不干。所以我没有那么喜欢这件事情,但是我认识到他确实是厉害。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在谈及特斯拉的时候,段永平表示,电动车这个生意不会太好,会很累,它差异化很小。但是特斯拉的电动车做出了差异化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他直言:“现在我不知道有多少家企业在做电动车,就像我们当年做游戏机一样,可能有几百家,卷到最后就剩几家,那几家是赚钱的,但这几百家都是要倒的。所以你现在看到的电动车大部分都会死掉,这个我可以肯定,谁会活下来我不知道。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1877356034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">新能源后市机会如何?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅段永平对特斯拉的态度变了。近期,国内市场对新能源板块的态度也发生了变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">经历多年调整,新能源板块终于否极泰来,短短两三个月时间,多只新能源主题ETF涨幅超过40%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">新能源板块后续机会如何也成为当前市场关注的焦点。诺德基金经理王恒楠发表观点称,当前A股市场呈现较鲜明的阶段性结构化行情特征,资金围绕高景气赛道轮动布局,整体活跃度较高。其中,新能源汽车产业链内部热点轮动频繁,从电池材料到智能化部件,技术迭代与旺季需求共同推动板块交替走强,或现结构性机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在工银瑞信基金看来,当前固态电池产业趋势确定,头部企业采用无负极的终局路线且效果较好,产业化进展超预期。固态电池的快速发展有望带来锂电池产业链的全面更新及设备价值量的大幅提升,电池、设备、材料等相关产业链环节有望迎来投资机会。具体来看,固态电池可关注等静压设备等设备端最新变化,以及硫化锂、碘化锂、无负极集流体等材料端相关环节。在电池端,龙头企业新产能投产并采取稳价策略,以争取市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“经过深度调整后,新能源板块各环节价格和盈利均处于低位,在市场因素与‘反内卷’政策共同作用下,供给端开始出现积极变化。”泉果基金经理赵诣此前在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示,“反内卷”为新能源板块创造了利好的政策环境,缓解了行业价格通缩,加速了供需改善,但更根本的还是要看需求端的表现。只有在需求持续旺盛的行业,才可能出现更大的投资机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从近期资金流向看,据Choice测算,多只新能源主题ETF吸引资金涌入。具体来看,四季度以来,截至11月19日,汇添富中证电池主题ETF净申购额为16.96亿元,易方达国证新能源电池ETF净申购额为15.58亿元,广发国证新能源车电池ETF净申购额也超过10亿元。</p></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平:我不想跟马斯克做朋友,但投资特斯拉还是可以的</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平:我不想跟马斯克做朋友,但投资特斯拉还是可以的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-21 17:55 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025112117162395126537&s=b><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>段永平近日表示已开始投资特斯拉,采用卖出短期认沽期权的方式。尽管他此前明确表示不喜欢马斯克品行、不想与其做朋友,但认可马斯克能力和特斯拉产品差异化优势。他坚持\"做朋友是一回事,投资是另一回事\",判断十年后回看这笔投资可能是对的。做朋友是一回事儿,投资是另一回事儿。在近日的访谈中,段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友,我不想跟他做朋友”。然而,话音未落,他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025112117162395126537&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025112117162395126537&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2585212115","content_text":"段永平近日表示已开始投资特斯拉,采用卖出短期认沽期权的方式。尽管他此前明确表示不喜欢马斯克品行、不想与其做朋友,但认可马斯克能力和特斯拉产品差异化优势。他坚持\"做朋友是一回事,投资是另一回事\",判断十年后回看这笔投资可能是对的。做朋友是一回事儿,投资是另一回事儿。在近日的访谈中,段永平公开表示“投资特斯拉实际上是在跟马斯克做朋友,我不想跟他做朋友”。然而,话音未落,他又公开称自己买了特斯拉的股票。对此,段永平表示:“不做朋友但还是可以投资的。”段永平买入特斯拉11月20日,段永平在雪球上公开发文表示:“最近终于再多花了点时间看了很多马斯克的东西。面对他的那么多厉害的产品,我上个礼拜和这个礼拜已经开始投点在特斯拉上了,满意了吧?最近几年确实感受到马斯克的厉害,而且他的第一性原理我是很好理解的。不做朋友但还是可以投资的嘛,反正他也不打球。就当风投吧,我觉得10年后回头看,这个投资也许是对的。”一石激起千层浪,网友们对此议论纷纷。面对部分网友的询问,段永平也进行了回应:“不是玩笑,是认真的。”另有网友询问段永平是直接购买股票,还是卖Put。段永平表示:“我卖put了,我很可能会一直卖,除非我又又又改变想法了。目前以卖短期的put为主,因为年化比较高(我觉得也许不至于就一飞冲天了吧)。我卖put的时候最重要的就是想一点:这个价钱卖给我10年后回头看是个便宜的价钱吗?如果答案是不便宜,那这个put就不可以卖。”值得一提的是,在近日与雪球创始人方三文的对话中,段永平曾谈及对特斯拉的看法。他表示:“马斯克这个人厉害,他有很多想法,也确实是很先进的。但是投资我觉得比较难,从个人的角度来讲,我不是很喜欢这个人的品行。你投资实际上是在跟他做朋友,我不想跟他做朋友,哪怕给我钱我也不干。所以我没有那么喜欢这件事情,但是我认识到他确实是厉害。”在谈及特斯拉的时候,段永平表示,电动车这个生意不会太好,会很累,它差异化很小。但是特斯拉的电动车做出了差异化。他直言:“现在我不知道有多少家企业在做电动车,就像我们当年做游戏机一样,可能有几百家,卷到最后就剩几家,那几家是赚钱的,但这几百家都是要倒的。所以你现在看到的电动车大部分都会死掉,这个我可以肯定,谁会活下来我不知道。”新能源后市机会如何?不仅段永平对特斯拉的态度变了。近期,国内市场对新能源板块的态度也发生了变化。经历多年调整,新能源板块终于否极泰来,短短两三个月时间,多只新能源主题ETF涨幅超过40%。新能源板块后续机会如何也成为当前市场关注的焦点。诺德基金经理王恒楠发表观点称,当前A股市场呈现较鲜明的阶段性结构化行情特征,资金围绕高景气赛道轮动布局,整体活跃度较高。其中,新能源汽车产业链内部热点轮动频繁,从电池材料到智能化部件,技术迭代与旺季需求共同推动板块交替走强,或现结构性机会。在工银瑞信基金看来,当前固态电池产业趋势确定,头部企业采用无负极的终局路线且效果较好,产业化进展超预期。固态电池的快速发展有望带来锂电池产业链的全面更新及设备价值量的大幅提升,电池、设备、材料等相关产业链环节有望迎来投资机会。具体来看,固态电池可关注等静压设备等设备端最新变化,以及硫化锂、碘化锂、无负极集流体等材料端相关环节。在电池端,龙头企业新产能投产并采取稳价策略,以争取市场份额。“经过深度调整后,新能源板块各环节价格和盈利均处于低位,在市场因素与‘反内卷’政策共同作用下,供给端开始出现积极变化。”泉果基金经理赵诣此前在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示,“反内卷”为新能源板块创造了利好的政策环境,缓解了行业价格通缩,加速了供需改善,但更根本的还是要看需求端的表现。只有在需求持续旺盛的行业,才可能出现更大的投资机会。从近期资金流向看,据Choice测算,多只新能源主题ETF吸引资金涌入。具体来看,四季度以来,截至11月19日,汇添富中证电池主题ETF净申购额为16.96亿元,易方达国证新能源电池ETF净申购额为15.58亿元,广发国证新能源车电池ETF净申购额也超过10亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502555341124272,"gmtCreate":1763722638882,"gmtModify":1763722641238,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没有独立分析能力,嚼他人残渣蔬菜,不配引领投资","listText":"没有独立分析能力,嚼他人残渣蔬菜,不配引领投资","text":"没有独立分析能力,嚼他人残渣蔬菜,不配引领投资","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502555341124272","repostId":"2585790193","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585790193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763696505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585790193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 11:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"泉果基金刚登峰:需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585790193","media":"东方财富","summary":"泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战,特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出,真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分,因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。那个时候,如果没有更多新收入,会受到比较大的挑战,还是需要对AI应用保持密切关注。","content":"<html><body><article><p>泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战,特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出,真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分,因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。他以OpenAI为例进行分析,OpenAI今年预计的收入大概在150亿美金,与很多云服务厂商都签订了千亿美金级CapEx的租赁服务协议,但它的收入和CapEx现在看起来是不匹配的。如果在整个应用层面没有更多的收入兑现的话,整个链条是没办法顺畅的循环下去的。</p><p>泉果基金通过测算发现,如果按现在的CapEx来说,头部的像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等企业在第一年和第二年的CapEx还不足以影响太多的<span>利润表</span>。但是如果按照现在的CapEx增长曲线下去的话,再过个两三年,他们的折旧就会影响很大。那个时候,如果没有更多新收入,会受到比较大的挑战,还是需要对AI应用保持密切关注。</p><p>友仑集团是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03623\">中国金融</a>科技领域的领军型投资机构,目前已经投出了日本最大的聚合支付平台NETSTARS和非洲最大的跨境数字支付平台Onafriq。其创始人李沛伦曾作为【泉果无限对话】的重磅嘉宾,与泉果投研团队深度复盘了在非洲投资Onafriq的整个投资决策逻辑。</p><p>(文章来源:界面新闻)</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>泉果基金刚登峰:需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泉果基金刚登峰:需密切关注AI应用的发展和机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-21 11:41 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511211141529511d4fb&s=b><strong>东方财富</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战,特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出,真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分,因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。他以OpenAI为例进行分析,OpenAI今年预计的收入大概在150亿美金,与很多云服务厂商都签订了千亿美金级CapEx的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511211141529511d4fb&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511211141529511d4fb&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2585790193","content_text":"泉果基金董事总经理刚登峰在友仑集团联合复旦大学国际金融学院等机构主办的“2025国际金融科技论坛”上深入剖析了AI产业链的投资机会与挑战,特别强调了AI应用层的重要性。刚登峰指出,真正杀手级的AI应用层面是目前大家争议最大的部分,因为这个才是整个产业链最后能够打通的关键环节。他以OpenAI为例进行分析,OpenAI今年预计的收入大概在150亿美金,与很多云服务厂商都签订了千亿美金级CapEx的租赁服务协议,但它的收入和CapEx现在看起来是不匹配的。如果在整个应用层面没有更多的收入兑现的话,整个链条是没办法顺畅的循环下去的。泉果基金通过测算发现,如果按现在的CapEx来说,头部的像英伟达、亚马逊、谷歌等企业在第一年和第二年的CapEx还不足以影响太多的利润表。但是如果按照现在的CapEx增长曲线下去的话,再过个两三年,他们的折旧就会影响很大。那个时候,如果没有更多新收入,会受到比较大的挑战,还是需要对AI应用保持密切关注。友仑集团是中国金融科技领域的领军型投资机构,目前已经投出了日本最大的聚合支付平台NETSTARS和非洲最大的跨境数字支付平台Onafriq。其创始人李沛伦曾作为【泉果无限对话】的重磅嘉宾,与泉果投研团队深度复盘了在非洲投资Onafriq的整个投资决策逻辑。(文章来源:界面新闻)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"AMZN":0.9,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"GOOG":0.9,"NVDD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"GOOGL":0.9,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502546486988800,"gmtCreate":1763720536617,"gmtModify":1763720539115,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"作者明显不懂企业财务,不懂企业账务处理规则流程,更不懂金融运作模式,典型老登思维偏见先入为主","listText":"作者明显不懂企业财务,不懂企业账务处理规则流程,更不懂金融运作模式,典型老登思维偏见先入为主","text":"作者明显不懂企业财务,不懂企业账务处理规则流程,更不懂金融运作模式,典型老登思维偏见先入为主","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502546486988800","repostId":"2585195463","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585195463","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"早报天天读,汇集天下事,做最好听的有声财经播报。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇APP","id":"11","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d"},"pubTimestamp":1763697735,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585195463?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 12:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达财报后走势“诡异”,6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585195463","media":"格隆汇APP","summary":"英伟达未结账款达334亿美元,一年内激增89%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>金融市场独立研究员佩雷拉(Shanaka Anslem Perera)发文称,昨日,一场史无前例的剧变发生。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 股价在财报发布后飙升5%,却在18小时内暴跌至负值区间。<strong>华尔街算法捕捉到了人类未能察觉的异常:账面数据存在严重矛盾。</strong></p><p>周五,英伟达夜盘股价短线“跳水”,截至发稿由涨转跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5f8ac56f4b709a46cfddf48cf18809\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><p><strong>具体发现如下:</strong></p><p><strong>英伟达披露未结账款达334亿美元,一年内激增89%。购买芯片的客户尚未付款,平均付款周期从46天延长至53天。这额外的一周意味着104亿美元可能永远无法收回。</strong>与此同时,英伟达库存积压芯片达198亿美元,三个月内增长32%。但管理层声称需求疯狂而供应受限。两者不可能同时成立。要么客户不愿购买,要么他们空手下单。现金流揭示了真相。英伟达实际产生145亿美元现金,却报告193亿美元利润。两者相差48亿美元。台积电和AMD等健康芯片企业能将95%以上利润转化为现金,英伟达仅能转化75%。这已达危机级别。</p><p>更令人发指的是:英伟达向xAI注资20亿美元,xAI却借贷125亿美元采购英伟达芯片;微软向OpenAI投入130亿美元,OpenAI承诺斥资500亿美元购买微软云服务;微软为该云平台订购价值1000亿美元的英伟达芯片;甲骨文向OpenAI提供3000亿美元云服务额度,OpenAI则为甲骨文数据中心订购英伟达芯片。同一笔资金在不同公司间循环往复,被多次计入营收。英伟达记账销售额,却无人真正付款。账单日益陈旧,库存不断堆积,现金流始终缺席。</p><p>上周AI公司CEO们已亲口承认。爱彼迎CEO称之为“氛围营收”。OpenAI每年烧掉93亿美元却仅赚37亿美元,年亏损达56亿美元。1570亿美元的估值需要3.1万亿美元的未来利润支撑,而麻省理工学院研究表明95%的人工智能项目永远无法实现这种盈利。<br/>硅谷风投教父彼得·蒂尔于11月9日抛售价值1亿美元的英伟达股票。软银集团11月11日抛售58亿美元持股。“大空头”迈克尔·伯里买入看跌期权,押注英伟达股价将在2026年3月前跌至140美元。</p><p>与人工智能投机密切相关的比特币,已从10月的12.6万美元跌至今日的89,567美元,跌幅达29%。人工智能初创企业持有价值268亿美元的比特币作为贷款抵押品。当英伟达股价再跌40%时,这些贷款将违约,迫使抛售230亿美元比特币,导致加密货币崩盘至5.2万美元。</p><p>时间线已然明朗:2026年2月,英伟达公布财报揭露逾期账款规模;2026年3月,评级机构下调信用评级;2026年4月,首次财务重述。这场耗时18个月构筑的骗局,在90天内土崩瓦解。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5f597ba02e9edfaeba010a07aa50e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1248\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达财报后走势“诡异”,6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达财报后走势“诡异”,6100亿美元“AI庞氏骗局”崩盘?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/11\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-21 12:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>金融市场独立研究员佩雷拉(Shanaka Anslem Perera)发文称,昨日,一场史无前例的剧变发生。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 股价在财报发布后飙升5%,却在18小时内暴跌至负值区间。<strong>华尔街算法捕捉到了人类未能察觉的异常:账面数据存在严重矛盾。</strong></p><p>周五,英伟达夜盘股价短线“跳水”,截至发稿由涨转跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5f8ac56f4b709a46cfddf48cf18809\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><p><strong>具体发现如下:</strong></p><p><strong>英伟达披露未结账款达334亿美元,一年内激增89%。购买芯片的客户尚未付款,平均付款周期从46天延长至53天。这额外的一周意味着104亿美元可能永远无法收回。</strong>与此同时,英伟达库存积压芯片达198亿美元,三个月内增长32%。但管理层声称需求疯狂而供应受限。两者不可能同时成立。要么客户不愿购买,要么他们空手下单。现金流揭示了真相。英伟达实际产生145亿美元现金,却报告193亿美元利润。两者相差48亿美元。台积电和AMD等健康芯片企业能将95%以上利润转化为现金,英伟达仅能转化75%。这已达危机级别。</p><p>更令人发指的是:英伟达向xAI注资20亿美元,xAI却借贷125亿美元采购英伟达芯片;微软向OpenAI投入130亿美元,OpenAI承诺斥资500亿美元购买微软云服务;微软为该云平台订购价值1000亿美元的英伟达芯片;甲骨文向OpenAI提供3000亿美元云服务额度,OpenAI则为甲骨文数据中心订购英伟达芯片。同一笔资金在不同公司间循环往复,被多次计入营收。英伟达记账销售额,却无人真正付款。账单日益陈旧,库存不断堆积,现金流始终缺席。</p><p>上周AI公司CEO们已亲口承认。爱彼迎CEO称之为“氛围营收”。OpenAI每年烧掉93亿美元却仅赚37亿美元,年亏损达56亿美元。1570亿美元的估值需要3.1万亿美元的未来利润支撑,而麻省理工学院研究表明95%的人工智能项目永远无法实现这种盈利。<br/>硅谷风投教父彼得·蒂尔于11月9日抛售价值1亿美元的英伟达股票。软银集团11月11日抛售58亿美元持股。“大空头”迈克尔·伯里买入看跌期权,押注英伟达股价将在2026年3月前跌至140美元。</p><p>与人工智能投机密切相关的比特币,已从10月的12.6万美元跌至今日的89,567美元,跌幅达29%。人工智能初创企业持有价值268亿美元的比特币作为贷款抵押品。当英伟达股价再跌40%时,这些贷款将违约,迫使抛售230亿美元比特币,导致加密货币崩盘至5.2万美元。</p><p>时间线已然明朗:2026年2月,英伟达公布财报揭露逾期账款规模;2026年3月,评级机构下调信用评级;2026年4月,首次财务重述。这场耗时18个月构筑的骗局,在90天内土崩瓦解。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5f597ba02e9edfaeba010a07aa50e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1248\" tg-height=\"441\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251121120511a4b0a566&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585195463","content_text":"金融市场独立研究员佩雷拉(Shanaka Anslem Perera)发文称,昨日,一场史无前例的剧变发生。 英伟达 股价在财报发布后飙升5%,却在18小时内暴跌至负值区间。华尔街算法捕捉到了人类未能察觉的异常:账面数据存在严重矛盾。周五,英伟达夜盘股价短线“跳水”,截至发稿由涨转跌。具体发现如下:英伟达披露未结账款达334亿美元,一年内激增89%。购买芯片的客户尚未付款,平均付款周期从46天延长至53天。这额外的一周意味着104亿美元可能永远无法收回。与此同时,英伟达库存积压芯片达198亿美元,三个月内增长32%。但管理层声称需求疯狂而供应受限。两者不可能同时成立。要么客户不愿购买,要么他们空手下单。现金流揭示了真相。英伟达实际产生145亿美元现金,却报告193亿美元利润。两者相差48亿美元。台积电和AMD等健康芯片企业能将95%以上利润转化为现金,英伟达仅能转化75%。这已达危机级别。更令人发指的是:英伟达向xAI注资20亿美元,xAI却借贷125亿美元采购英伟达芯片;微软向OpenAI投入130亿美元,OpenAI承诺斥资500亿美元购买微软云服务;微软为该云平台订购价值1000亿美元的英伟达芯片;甲骨文向OpenAI提供3000亿美元云服务额度,OpenAI则为甲骨文数据中心订购英伟达芯片。同一笔资金在不同公司间循环往复,被多次计入营收。英伟达记账销售额,却无人真正付款。账单日益陈旧,库存不断堆积,现金流始终缺席。上周AI公司CEO们已亲口承认。爱彼迎CEO称之为“氛围营收”。OpenAI每年烧掉93亿美元却仅赚37亿美元,年亏损达56亿美元。1570亿美元的估值需要3.1万亿美元的未来利润支撑,而麻省理工学院研究表明95%的人工智能项目永远无法实现这种盈利。硅谷风投教父彼得·蒂尔于11月9日抛售价值1亿美元的英伟达股票。软银集团11月11日抛售58亿美元持股。“大空头”迈克尔·伯里买入看跌期权,押注英伟达股价将在2026年3月前跌至140美元。与人工智能投机密切相关的比特币,已从10月的12.6万美元跌至今日的89,567美元,跌幅达29%。人工智能初创企业持有价值268亿美元的比特币作为贷款抵押品。当英伟达股价再跌40%时,这些贷款将违约,迫使抛售230亿美元比特币,导致加密货币崩盘至5.2万美元。时间线已然明朗:2026年2月,英伟达公布财报揭露逾期账款规模;2026年3月,评级机构下调信用评级;2026年4月,首次财务重述。这场耗时18个月构筑的骗局,在90天内土崩瓦解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502282589774496,"gmtCreate":1763646154211,"gmtModify":1763646156648,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570605047103152","idStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"老登看不懂ai,也就看不清ai未来","listText":"老登看不懂ai,也就看不清ai未来","text":"老登看不懂ai,也就看不清ai未来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502282589774496","repostId":"2584907013","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2584907013","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763618500,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584907013?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-20 14:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"没被英伟达财报说服?“大空头”继续炮轰AI:真实需求“少得可笑”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584907013","media":"金十数据","summary":"伯里已披露做空英伟达和Palantir的头寸,并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测,称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。尽管伯里发出警告,但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%,提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票,并推高了美国股指期货。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>AI播客:换个方式听新闻</strong>下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成</p><p>电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告,声称<strong>人工智能(AI)的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模</strong>。这一评论是在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。</p><p>这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表,突出显示了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT)、OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL)和英伟达(NVDA)等主要科技巨头之间的AI投资协议。在图片旁边,他指责其中几家公司存在“可疑的收入确认”行为,暗示他们报告的增长可能并未反映真正的市场需求。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251120140142289d201nx50w2rwmvm\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251120140143483d2012m5vzpnj30d\"/><p>伯里认为,<strong>未来的观察者回顾这段时期时,会将当前的AI热潮视为欺诈而非变革。</strong>他认为<strong>“真实的终端需求少得可笑”</strong>,并声称<strong>许多推动AI增长的客户本身就由向他们销售AI技术的公司资助——描绘了一个自我强化的循环,而非可持续的普及应用。</strong></p><p>在后续帖子中,伯里称OpenAI是整个AI繁荣的“关键支柱”,并质疑这家初创公司审计师的可信度。自11月公开回归以来,他的这些警告延续了一系列对AI驱动的科技估值飙升的怀疑言论。伯里已披露做空英伟达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的头寸,并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。</p><p>他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测,称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。</p><p>尽管伯里发出警告,但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%,提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票,并推高了美国<span>股指期货</span>。</p><p>伯里本周早些时候表示,虽然他的对冲基金公司Scion Asset Management已办理注销注册,但<strong>他仍活跃于市场。</strong></p><p>“这最后一次的尝试本质上就是一个亲朋好友共同拥有的基金。”他在周二写道,“我没有像大多数人那样进行市场推广或管理,也没有试图通过引入我不认识的投资者来扩大<span>资产</span>规模。我不想再次遇到像创办Scion Capital时那样的问题。”</p><p>“我仍在管理我的资金并活跃于市场,”他补充道。</p><p>这位对冲基金经理在2008年成功做空美国住房市场后关闭了之前的公司Scion Capital,并于2013年开设了Scion Asset Management。不久前Scion Asset Management已终止在美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的注册状态,他在X上发帖表示“11月25日将去做更好的事”。</p><p>“我很高兴摆脱合规负担和我的文件引发的广泛误解,”伯里周二写道。“Scion Asset Management并没有关闭,因为它也是我运行其他投资项目的工具。它不再是RIA(注册投资顾问),也不再为外部投资者管理基金。”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>没被英伟达财报说服?“大空头”继续炮轰AI:真实需求“少得可笑”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没被英伟达财报说服?“大空头”继续炮轰AI:真实需求“少得可笑”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-20 14:01 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AI播客:换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告,声称人工智能(AI)的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模。这一评论是在英伟达发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表,突出显示了微软(MSFT)、OpenAI、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","MSFT":"微软","ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2584907013","content_text":"AI播客:换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告,声称人工智能(AI)的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模。这一评论是在英伟达发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表,突出显示了微软(MSFT)、OpenAI、甲骨文(ORCL)和英伟达(NVDA)等主要科技巨头之间的AI投资协议。在图片旁边,他指责其中几家公司存在“可疑的收入确认”行为,暗示他们报告的增长可能并未反映真正的市场需求。伯里认为,未来的观察者回顾这段时期时,会将当前的AI热潮视为欺诈而非变革。他认为“真实的终端需求少得可笑”,并声称许多推动AI增长的客户本身就由向他们销售AI技术的公司资助——描绘了一个自我强化的循环,而非可持续的普及应用。在后续帖子中,伯里称OpenAI是整个AI繁荣的“关键支柱”,并质疑这家初创公司审计师的可信度。自11月公开回归以来,他的这些警告延续了一系列对AI驱动的科技估值飙升的怀疑言论。伯里已披露做空英伟达和Palantir的头寸,并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测,称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。尽管伯里发出警告,但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%,提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票,并推高了美国股指期货。伯里本周早些时候表示,虽然他的对冲基金公司Scion Asset Management已办理注销注册,但他仍活跃于市场。“这最后一次的尝试本质上就是一个亲朋好友共同拥有的基金。”他在周二写道,“我没有像大多数人那样进行市场推广或管理,也没有试图通过引入我不认识的投资者来扩大资产规模。我不想再次遇到像创办Scion Capital时那样的问题。”“我仍在管理我的资金并活跃于市场,”他补充道。这位对冲基金经理在2008年成功做空美国住房市场后关闭了之前的公司Scion Capital,并于2013年开设了Scion Asset Management。不久前Scion Asset 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18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"小摩:2023年市场最大风险是经济不衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2308081283","media":"智通财经网","summary":"小摩策略师Mike Bell表示,目前市场面临的最大威胁是,如果经济衰退没有成为现实,将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场,这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息,股市和","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>小摩策略师Mike Bell表示,目前市场面临的最大威胁是,如果经济衰退没有成为现实,将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场,这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息,股市和债市都会下跌。</p><p>自去年3月以来,美联储一直在积极加息,以遏制通胀。一系列经济数据表明,物价正在降温,但由于紧缩的货币政策导致经济放缓,市场正在为衰退做准备。</p><p>标普500指数和纳斯达克指数过去一个月分别上涨近6%和11%,因为华尔街预计美联储将扭转为应对经济低迷而采取的紧缩政策。但如果美国经济仍未衰退,工资增长保持在高位,那么美联储将不会像预期的那样降息,而是不得不在今年下半年恢复加息,加息幅度将高于华尔街目前的预期。</p><p>但Bell表示,小摩基本预测2023年将出现经济衰退,这将缓和工资压力,那么美联储将在2024年降息。“我最乐观的猜测是,美联储将在2024年底前将利率降至2.5%左右”。</p><p>美联储为期两天的政策会议将于本周三结束,预计加息幅度将是近一年来最小的一次。本次预计加息25个基点,今年晚些时候将再加息25个基点,市场普遍预计这将使美联储利率升至4.75%-5.00%。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/869739.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小摩策略师Mike Bell表示,目前市场面临的最大威胁是,如果经济衰退没有成为现实,将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场,这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息,股市和债市都会下跌。自去年3月以来,美联储一直在积极加息,以遏制通胀。一系列经济数据表明,物价正在降温,但由于紧缩的货币政策导致经济放缓,市场正在为衰退做准备。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数过去一个月分别上涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/869739.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c9defb5a6364fafa902e502b1d3974","relate_stocks":{"LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) 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src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021127/433/w969h264/20210127/6280-kicwvzr0866546.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>作为中国市值最高的车企,比亚迪乘着新能源的东风,在资本市场上也是大放异彩,<font>随着比亚迪汉、刀片电池、全新插混DM平台等多个重磅产品、技术的发布,</font>比亚迪也受到了车迷、投资者更热烈的关注与欢迎。</p><p>从去年年初至今,比亚迪的市值已经暴涨了近300%,并且前景市场依旧被看好,大有在资本市场,复制特斯拉神话的势头。</p><p>当前,比亚迪已经是国内市值最高的车企,截止到今日收盘,<font>其在A股的股价为257元,市值为7011亿元。</font></p><p>与特斯拉不同的是,比亚迪的技术属性要更为浓厚一些。设计新能源汽车全产业链,比亚迪也都已通过自研方式贯通。</p><p><font>从电池、电机、三电系统、整车制造,比亚迪全部均有研发投入,目前也是国内为数不多的全产链自己制造的车企之一。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021127/204/w600h404/20210127/cd22-kicwvzr0732113.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>此外,前段时间,比亚迪发布了最新的“超级混动DM-i技术”,并且秦Plus是搭载该技术的首款车型。</p><p>与此前的DM车型相比较,DM-i更注重燃油经济性,<font>此前众多媒体实测秦Plus的亏电油耗,百公里仅2.6L左右,成绩相当惊人,直接超越以丰田、本田为代表的的油电混动油耗。</font></p><p>可以说,“超级混动DM-技术”的到来,直接把比亚迪的动力水平,拉到了全球第一梯队的水平。</p><p>而这势必也会为比亚迪带来更大的发展想象空间,资本向来都是抢先市场一步行动,特斯拉注意到比亚迪的迅猛发展势头,二者本身关系就是亦敌亦友,并且都作为全球知名的新能源汽车品牌,一同联手与传统汽车“作战”,也不是没有可能。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n媒体曝特斯拉欲斥资2300亿元买入比亚迪20%股份\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-27 20:05 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-01-27/doc-ikftpnny2339246.shtml><strong>cnBeta</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:媒体曝特斯拉欲斥资2300亿元买入比亚迪20%股份 来源:快科技今日,有媒体突然报道,美国特斯拉公司,寻求以360亿美元(约合人民币2327亿元)的资金,购入比亚迪20%的股份,支付方式为10%现金+10%特斯拉股权。不过,当前的消息准确性正在核实。作为中国市值最高的车企,比亚迪乘着新能源的东风,在资本市场上也是大放异彩,随着比亚迪汉、刀片电池、全新插混DM平台等多个重磅产品、技术的发布,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-01-27/doc-ikftpnny2339246.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e102e507c2847f752c0a95880de78e","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","TSLA":"特斯拉","002594":"比亚迪"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-01-27/doc-ikftpnny2339246.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2106528058","content_text":"原标题:媒体曝特斯拉欲斥资2300亿元买入比亚迪20%股份 来源:快科技今日,有媒体突然报道,美国特斯拉公司,寻求以360亿美元(约合人民币2327亿元)的资金,购入比亚迪20%的股份,支付方式为10%现金+10%特斯拉股权。不过,当前的消息准确性正在核实。作为中国市值最高的车企,比亚迪乘着新能源的东风,在资本市场上也是大放异彩,随着比亚迪汉、刀片电池、全新插混DM平台等多个重磅产品、技术的发布,比亚迪也受到了车迷、投资者更热烈的关注与欢迎。从去年年初至今,比亚迪的市值已经暴涨了近300%,并且前景市场依旧被看好,大有在资本市场,复制特斯拉神话的势头。当前,比亚迪已经是国内市值最高的车企,截止到今日收盘,其在A股的股价为257元,市值为7011亿元。与特斯拉不同的是,比亚迪的技术属性要更为浓厚一些。设计新能源汽车全产业链,比亚迪也都已通过自研方式贯通。从电池、电机、三电系统、整车制造,比亚迪全部均有研发投入,目前也是国内为数不多的全产链自己制造的车企之一。此外,前段时间,比亚迪发布了最新的“超级混动DM-i技术”,并且秦Plus是搭载该技术的首款车型。与此前的DM车型相比较,DM-i更注重燃油经济性,此前众多媒体实测秦Plus的亏电油耗,百公里仅2.6L左右,成绩相当惊人,直接超越以丰田、本田为代表的的油电混动油耗。可以说,“超级混动DM-技术”的到来,直接把比亚迪的动力水平,拉到了全球第一梯队的水平。而这势必也会为比亚迪带来更大的发展想象空间,资本向来都是抢先市场一步行动,特斯拉注意到比亚迪的迅猛发展势头,二者本身关系就是亦敌亦友,并且都作为全球知名的新能源汽车品牌,一同联手与传统汽车“作战”,也不是没有可能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"002594":1,"01211":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397437730,"gmtCreate":1608306687920,"gmtModify":1703852426780,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570605047103152","authorIdStr":"3570605047103152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>股价表现太臭,与A股德行一样,是不是就是A股机构投资者在玩。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>股价表现太臭,与A股德行一样,是不是就是A股机构投资者在玩。","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$股价表现太臭,与A股德行一样,是不是就是A股机构投资者在玩。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397437730","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}