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2021-11-21

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沈南鹏对话Yuri Milner：未来文明的使命是理解和探索宇宙

2021-11-11

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2021-11-10

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2021-11-09

這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看看

@koolgal:SPY vs VOO ETF!

2021-11-08

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2021-11-06

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2021-11-01

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2021-10-31

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2021-10-29

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2021-10-28

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2021-10-25

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2021-10-24

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2021-10-23

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2021-10-21

$DraftKings Inc.(DKNG)$[开心]

2021-10-20

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2021-10-19

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2021-10-19

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2021-10-18

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2021-10-17

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2021-10-16

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Milner则表示，元宇宙平台只可能由大型公司创建。“因为真正要建立核心平台需要很多的投资，每年都需要投入几十亿美金或者更多，而且需要持续10-20年之久，这种做法只有大型企业才能做到。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11cc4b5e3e0b81dccec4e6adaccfa99a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>以下为沈南鹏与Yuri Milner精彩对话的实录：</b></p>\n<p><b>创始人的动机是初创企业挑战巨头最大的动力来源</b></p>\n<p><b>沈南鹏：</b>DST的投资覆盖全球，包括中国、北美、拉美、欧洲、印度、东南亚，所以您能否从高屋建瓴的角度，谈谈对未来技术发展趋势的展望？</p>\n<p><b>Yuri Milner：</b>我是从2000年开始创业的，那是我的第一家创业企业，2010年该公司成功上市，在此之后我就专注于做职业投资人。今天我主要跟大家分享一下我在过去十年里的一些心得体会，以及对下一个十年的展望。</p>\n<p>过去的十年是非凡的十年，尤其是互联网技术得到了蓬勃发展。我在刚开始做投资的时候，全球技术类企业的市值加起来只有一万亿美元，现在已经是十万亿，实现了十倍的总市值提升。从中我还观察到以下几点：</p>\n<p>第一，市场上更多的价值进入到了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">新生</a>企业，还有一些传统企业在数字化转型过程中受益，价值也得到了提升。在西方市场，有70%的技术价值来自以线上为先的企业，他们从创立之初就在做技术类的服务；当然还有一些成立几十年的传统企业，他们也在尝试进行调整，但这个调整可能没办法去捕获足量的价值。而在中国，这个比例甚至更高，有90%的技术价值是由初创期的纯技术企业创造的。</p>\n<p>第二，回顾过去十年的发展，大家发现大部分价值产生自美国企业。现实也确实如此，数据显示，大概有2/3的价值是由美国企业创造的，另有25%出自中国企业。在过去十年里，中国取得了非常蓬勃的发展，已经成为了数字时代的大国。</p>\n<p>第三，还有一个比较有意思的维度来考察过去十年，就是市场上的价值一半来自非常成功的上市企业，比如说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>；而另一半则是由初创企业以及未上市的企业创造出来的。我认为这样的比例可能还会持续，而且没有理由相信它不会这样持续下去，因此，现在仍然是初创企业的好时代。</p>\n<p>另一个观察维度就是有多少比例的价值流向了大企业、中型企业和小微企业。数据显示，在过去20年间，头部的5家技术企业，占了60%的价值，接下来的15家是20%的占比，剩下的部分占了20%的价值，所以是6：2：2的比例，这样的金字塔还是非常稳定的。整个体量在变化，但是金字塔的形态没有变化，这对创业者意味着什么？如果想要获取大部分的价值，那么公司就要做大，如果你很长时间都无法做大的话，那可能只是在金字塔的底端做一个小企业。所以要尽可能的快速做大才能更快的获取到顶部的更大价值。</p>\n<p><b>沈南鹏：</b>刚才你说的数字非常有意思，对于初创企业的创始人，包括在中国的创业者们来说，也是一种鼓舞。他们都有机会超过现有的大企业，这是我们所有人都乐意看到的，我们也非常高兴能听到中国是全球整个技术发展大潮的重要组成部分。</p>\n<p><b>Yuri Milner：</b>有时候人们会问我，小公司资源少，如何去挑战那些有几十亿现金储备的巨头。我认为虽然初创公司占据劣势，但他们之所以能挑战巨头，最大的动力来源于创始人的动机。创始人的动机转化成为他们对公司的主人翁精神，以及努力去招聘最好的人才，并且让他们共同持有公司股份。即便是最好的工程师，他们在这些大的成熟企业中也没办法获得足够的股权，所以这些初创企业创始人最有效的武器，就是给团队合理的股份，一起去分享未来的成功。这就是创企业能够与巨头竞争的最有效的武器。</p>\n<p><b>元宇宙平台更适合由大型公司创建</b></p>\n<p><b>沈南鹏：</b>我们讲到新的趋势，最近Facebook把名字改成了Meta，而且Metaverse也变成了新兴词，成为了人们津津乐道的话题。您是怎么看Metaverse的？大概两年之前，我记得我们一起看了电影《头号玩家》，讨论这可能就是未来虚拟世界的样子，我们会花费大量的时间沉浸在这个世界中。</p>\n<p><b>Yuri Milner：</b>是的，当我们看那部电影的时候，实际上工程师们已经在创造相关产品了。现在元宇宙最大的应用就是在游戏方面，但是我相信这仅仅是一个开端。</p>\n<p>当我们在讨论Metaverse的时候，我们需要先去思考几个问题：</p>\n<p>第一，如果你想参与进Metaverse中来，究竟应该采取怎样的策略？我认为Metaverse平台只可能由那些大型公司创建，比如说Facebook、腾讯，或者是其他的大型成熟公司。因为真正要建立核心平台需要很多的投资，每年都需要投入几十亿美金或者更多，而且需要持续投资10-20年，我相信这种做法只有大型企业才能做到。</p>\n<p>第二，Metaverse不仅仅对软件，同时也对新的硬件开发，甚至是新的处理器有要求，而硬件投资也同样需要很大的投入。Metaverse需要使用大量的传感器，才能做到和人体无缝协作和互动，去模仿人类的动作，而且传感器还得足够小，不能打扰人的正常动作，这本身也要求非常大的投资。另一方面，Metaverse是一个极为开放的环境，需要围绕这些硬件做大量的应用程序开发。</p>\n<p><b>成功创始人的三大共性</b></p>\n<p><b>沈南鹏：</b>我们所有人都期待看到新的数据化以及新的应用出现，您投资了全世界很多的知名公司，从小米、美团这些中国公司到Robinhood、Spotify等欧美企业。您觉得这些优秀的创始人、CEO有什么共性？共同的特点是怎样的？</p>\n<p><b>Yuri Milner：</b>在过去十年中，有10家私有企业达到了一千亿美元的估值，而且我们非常幸运地投资了其中的8家。当然，我相信将来会有越来越多这样的公司出现，他们甚至能够超过一千亿美元的估值。</p>\n<p>但就目前来看，通过我对这几家企业的观察，我认为所有成功创始人都拥有以下三点共性：</p>\n<p>1、好奇心。当我和他们待的时间足够长之后，我发现他们所有人都拥有强烈的好奇心。他们的好奇心不仅仅围绕在他们建立的公司上，而且是对广泛事物的好奇。</p>\n<p>2、结构化的思维方式。依靠这种思维方式，他们不仅仅要深入理解用户，并要以此来设计产品，还要知道如何建设组织，而且这样的结构性思维是可以同等应用在公司内外的。他们当中很多人创造了独特技术和产品，并不仅仅是为了用户，也为了他们的员工和内部团队，帮助他们进行组织的管理。</p>\n<p>3、对人的理解。我们把它称作心理学，因为需要有非常强的理解能力和共情能力，才能够吸引最好的团队成员，吸引到最好的工程师，去理解不同的人背后的动机，根据不同的人去调整，因为人们背后的驱动动机是完全不同的，所以我觉得深度了解心理学的才能成为成功的创业者。</p>\n<p>我认为这三点远远超过于他们所从事的商业本身。</p>\n<p><b>坚持投资基础科学</b></p>\n<p><b>试图了解和探索宇宙</b></p>\n<p><b>沈南鹏：</b>谈到技术投资，以及未来的趋势，我们要做的是脚踏实地的行动，同时探索星辰大海。</p>\n<p>前几天，红杉中国在上海捐赠了世界顶尖科学家协会奖，这是一个面向全球的鼓励原创基础科研的大奖。我知道您和一些企业家也创立了“突破奖”。所以我们想要听一下您为什么要创立这个奖项，您是如何看待非盈利性投入的？</p>\n<p><b>Yuri Milner：</b>我前十年的职业生涯都投入到了科学研究，可以说科学和我之间有着密切的关系。在商界周游了一圈后，我希望能为科学做出一些贡献，所以我的第一个想法就是设立奖项。全世界已经有很多奖项了，其中一些可能像诺贝尔奖这么重量级，那为什么还要多一个奖呢？</p>\n<p>据我观察，虽然有一些奖项更为知名，但是他们并没有花很多的时间去宣传。科学家是文明进步的领航员，时代的英雄，推广或者公关活动能让这些科学家为众人所知，所以我们并不仅仅建立了全球最大的科学奖（三百万美元），还在宣传方面进行了巨大的投资，每年的11月我们会在硅谷举办颁奖典礼。</p>\n<p>如今，这个奖项也受到了众多创始人的支持，其中包括Facebook、腾讯、谷歌的创始人，毫无疑问这是全球性的奖项。而我们奖项的获奖者也来自于全世界各地，分成三个领域：生命科学、物理学和数学。但这个奖项的核心目的还是推广这些科学家，我们做了一些短视频，数百万人在互联网上观看了颁奖仪式。而且我们大量去宣传科学家的发现、发明，甚至为他们提供经济奖励，这就是关于我们科学奖的目的。</p>\n<p>有很多项目可能我们没有提，作为非盈利性的项目，它们都和科学有着紧密的联系。最早推出的一个项目是“Breakthrough Listen”，这是全球最重要的探测外星文明信号的研究项目，也就是探测来自外星人的信号，如果它们存在的话。我并不是假设它们存在，而是通过科学实验，并以非常严格的方式找出是否有任何无线电信号从外太空传给我们。因为如果另外一个文明确实存在，那么不可避免地会使用无线电作为远距离通信成本最低的方式。因此，我们通过使用世界上最大的射电望远镜，包括参与此项目的中国射电望远镜，看看是否有任何来自宇宙的信号。</p>\n<p>几个月前，我们发现了第一个有待进一步考证的信号，是来自于最近的半人马座Alpha星。在这个星球中可能会有生命存在，因为它的温度和地球很接近，我们还在继续研究这样的信号，同时也在看其他的投资，有些杂志已经发表了关于这个话题的文章。这个话题仍然很神秘，同时也吸引着我们的兴趣。</p>\n<p>第二个项目是“Starstruck”，这是一种以非常严格的工程方式开发星际间旅行技术的尝试。埃隆·马斯克和杰夫·贝索斯都在研究太阳系的旅行，埃隆·马斯克正在考虑去火星，而杰夫·贝索斯则更关注月球。但这些探索都是使用更传统的化学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTEK\">燃料技术</a>在太阳系中旅行，我们也在看有没有其他的技术，可以用来让我们旅行得更远、更快，能够让人类前往外星旅行。</p>\n<p>我刚才讲到了半人马座Alpha星，我们也在投上亿美元的基金，进行人类工程方面的挑战。看有哪些技术可以让我们以大约10%的光速去做星际旅行，能够让我们抵达比较近地系的，比如说千光年以外的星，而不是说更远的光年外的星，看需要哪些技术的储备。</p>\n<p><b>沈南鹏：</b>“Breakthrough Listen”项目主要寻找外星文明，有哪些不同的做法？与早期研究这个方向的类似项目相比，这个项目用了哪些不同的方法？</p>\n<p><b>Yuri Milner：</b>最早是在60年代推出过这样的尝试，但现在技术日新月异的发展，比如射电天文望远镜，我们能够调动地球上全部的现有资源来研究我们的课题。过去的研究主要采用地球上已有的无线电射电望远镜，现在我们大概借用其1/4的时间和算力去研究课题，这个之前是没有过的，之前可能是很小的时间比例，这是第一点。</p>\n<p>第二，我们有软硬件结合的方法，我们现在有更加高量级的服务器，有AI来做信号的解读和处理。因为每秒钟传来的信号量是非常大的，只有AI才能帮助我们梳理这些信号的数据，试图找出一些比较有潜力的、可以仔细观察的信号。</p>\n<p><b>沈南鹏：</b>当下的确是非常令人振奋的时期，之前我们可能没办法开展这方面的工作，因为现在有了AI这样的技术，给了我们更好的机会去探索外太空。您最近也写了一本书，叫Eureka Manifesto（《尤里卡宣言》，尤里卡是古希腊语，意为“我找到了！”“我发现了！”），很有意思的名字。能不能跟我们讲一下这本书您想传达什么样的观点，想跟我们的听众、读者传达什么样的信号？您谈到了整个文明的使命，是什么使命？</p>\n<p><b>Yuri Milner：</b>我过去20年一直在琢磨怎么写这本书，终于在过去一年半里，借疫情无法出行的时间，利用周末写成了。我简单介绍一下这本书的内容：我们每一个获得成功的组织，比如说成功的企业，都需要有自己的使命宣言，比如说谷歌的使命宣言是“把全球信息组织起来，让全球可及”，或者Facebook是“希望连接世界，给每个人发声的机会”。</p>\n<p>如果你把我们的文明作为一个整体来看，实际上并没有提出过任何合理的使命，没有这一使命意味着我们无法共同作出重大的一致努力来实现某些目标。所以我问自己，如果现在给整个文明确立一个使命，这个使命会是什么。我提出了一个我认为可能的选择，那就是了解和探索宇宙。</p>\n<p>我认为这是一个最为有机、自然的使命。为什么说是非常有机的？因为对于我们人类而言，这是与生俱来就存在的使命。从4亿年前细胞分裂的第一刻开始，纯粹去探索宇宙的初心就已经存在，因为这是最优的生存策略。我们的细胞、多细胞生物体都是如此，还有哺乳动物、人类，都是在某种程度上去探索周围的世界，当然这也是宇宙的一部分，我们试图去理解、领会，然后获得与其他物种间的竞争优势。我认为现在已经到达了这样的时刻：每个人都要思考能不能达成统一的使命，然后通过集体努力，去更好地追求这个使命，更好地探究、了解宇宙。</p>\n<p>为什么这个使命非常重要？有些人可能会说不太务实，确实我们还存在很多棘手、紧迫的现实问题需要我们去关注和解决，解决了这些我们才能去想这些更抽象、更远大的问题。我的回答是，如果大家看过去500年的科学进步的话，它发生的背后都是因为一些非常纯粹的由求知欲推动的科学研究，科学家的求知欲带来了一些科技的突破和进步。</p>\n<p>举个例子，我们现在能用到手机，不需要有线缆，也是因为在19世纪有一位英国的科学家，叫做麦克斯韦，他预测无线电将会普及，于是带着纯粹的心态进行了探索。几十年之后，德国的一位科学家赫兹发现了这样的无线电波，有了无线电波之后，我们现在慢慢有了无线手机。如果没有他这种纯粹的智慧上的探索，或是只是有想法没动手的话，我们或许仍没有手机可以使用。</p>\n<p>另外一个例子，量子力学。量子力学大概是在一百年前被提出的，当时不是因为已经有了一些应用，而是人们希望解决一些物理学中的现象。过了几十年后我们看到已经有人开始将量子力学应用在晶体管里了，而晶体管现在又被用在了电脑里。</p>\n<p>以上这两个例子表明，如果我们在支持基础科学研究的同时，再怀抱试图了解宇宙的使命，我们就能够在更深刻理解宇宙的同时去想出一些突破，这些突破可能是我们现在没办法想出来的，有些也会惠及人们，比如说现在的量子计算机，很多技术型企业都在做量子计算机的攻关。就是因为在100年前的求知欲推动着我们发明了量子力学，所以才使现在的量子计算机成为可能，所以在纯粹的探索和实际应用之间总是有直接的联系。有时我们会失去这种联系，因为它没有得到清晰的解释和阐述，但这种联系确实存在，我们需要继续投资于基础科学，以寻找我们今天都无法想象的未来技术。</p>\n<p><b>沈南鹏：</b>科学发现和创造的本意不是去解决一些生活中的问题，但恰恰科学正是我们解决现实生活中短期和中期技术挑战的唯一方法，而且更像你所说的，是我们仰望星空、探求文明使命的唯一方法。</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沈南鹏对话Yuri Milner：未来文明的使命是理解和探索宇宙</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-21 11:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-11-20/doc-iktzscyy6699052.shtml><strong>投中网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“有时候人们会问我，小公司资源少，如何去挑战那些有几十亿现金储备的巨头。我认为虽然初创公司占据劣势，但他们之所以能挑战巨头，最大的动力来源于创始人的动机。”\n11月19日，在2021红杉数字科技全球领袖峰会上，红杉全球执行合伙人沈南鹏与DST Global（俄罗斯投资集团）创始人Yuri Milner以《科技，重绘产业图谱》为题进行了深入探讨。\n在对话中，Yuri Milner率先回顾并展望了全球...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-11-20/doc-iktzscyy6699052.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdebdfe62273ac806dc3a657b1ca6182","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-11-20/doc-iktzscyy6699052.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2185823788","content_text":"“有时候人们会问我，小公司资源少，如何去挑战那些有几十亿现金储备的巨头。我认为虽然初创公司占据劣势，但他们之所以能挑战巨头，最大的动力来源于创始人的动机。”\n11月19日，在2021红杉数字科技全球领袖峰会上，红杉全球执行合伙人沈南鹏与DST Global（俄罗斯投资集团）创始人Yuri Milner以《科技，重绘产业图谱》为题进行了深入探讨。\n在对话中，Yuri Milner率先回顾并展望了全球的科技发展情况及趋势，他表示，过去十年市场上的技术价值50%来自非常成功的上市企业，另一半则是由初创企业以及未上市的企业创造出来的。他认为这样的比例还将继续持续，现在对于初创企业来说，仍是个好时代。\n过去十年是互联网技术蓬勃发展的十年。数据显示，全球技术类企业的累计市值已由过去的一万亿美元提升至十万亿美元，与此同时也诞生了10家估值超一千亿美元的科技企业。值得一提的是，10家公司中有8家是Yuri Milner 所投资的公司。\n在分享如何能够挖掘出成功的创业者时，Yuri Milner认为所有的成功创始人都拥有三点共性，即强烈的好奇心、结构化的思维方式，以及非常强的理解能力和共情能力。他认为这三点远远超过于创始人所从事的商业本身。\n而聊到关于时下大热的元宇宙话题时，Yuri Milner则表示，元宇宙平台只可能由大型公司创建。“因为真正要建立核心平台需要很多的投资，每年都需要投入几十亿美金或者更多，而且需要持续10-20年之久，这种做法只有大型企业才能做到。”\n\n以下为沈南鹏与Yuri Milner精彩对话的实录：\n创始人的动机是初创企业挑战巨头最大的动力来源\n沈南鹏：DST的投资覆盖全球，包括中国、北美、拉美、欧洲、印度、东南亚，所以您能否从高屋建瓴的角度，谈谈对未来技术发展趋势的展望？\nYuri Milner：我是从2000年开始创业的，那是我的第一家创业企业，2010年该公司成功上市，在此之后我就专注于做职业投资人。今天我主要跟大家分享一下我在过去十年里的一些心得体会，以及对下一个十年的展望。\n过去的十年是非凡的十年，尤其是互联网技术得到了蓬勃发展。我在刚开始做投资的时候，全球技术类企业的市值加起来只有一万亿美元，现在已经是十万亿，实现了十倍的总市值提升。从中我还观察到以下几点：\n第一，市场上更多的价值进入到了新生企业，还有一些传统企业在数字化转型过程中受益，价值也得到了提升。在西方市场，有70%的技术价值来自以线上为先的企业，他们从创立之初就在做技术类的服务；当然还有一些成立几十年的传统企业，他们也在尝试进行调整，但这个调整可能没办法去捕获足量的价值。而在中国，这个比例甚至更高，有90%的技术价值是由初创期的纯技术企业创造的。\n第二，回顾过去十年的发展，大家发现大部分价值产生自美国企业。现实也确实如此，数据显示，大概有2/3的价值是由美国企业创造的，另有25%出自中国企业。在过去十年里，中国取得了非常蓬勃的发展，已经成为了数字时代的大国。\n第三，还有一个比较有意思的维度来考察过去十年，就是市场上的价值一半来自非常成功的上市企业，比如说腾讯、谷歌；而另一半则是由初创企业以及未上市的企业创造出来的。我认为这样的比例可能还会持续，而且没有理由相信它不会这样持续下去，因此，现在仍然是初创企业的好时代。\n另一个观察维度就是有多少比例的价值流向了大企业、中型企业和小微企业。数据显示，在过去20年间，头部的5家技术企业，占了60%的价值，接下来的15家是20%的占比，剩下的部分占了20%的价值，所以是6：2：2的比例，这样的金字塔还是非常稳定的。整个体量在变化，但是金字塔的形态没有变化，这对创业者意味着什么？如果想要获取大部分的价值，那么公司就要做大，如果你很长时间都无法做大的话，那可能只是在金字塔的底端做一个小企业。所以要尽可能的快速做大才能更快的获取到顶部的更大价值。\n沈南鹏：刚才你说的数字非常有意思，对于初创企业的创始人，包括在中国的创业者们来说，也是一种鼓舞。他们都有机会超过现有的大企业，这是我们所有人都乐意看到的，我们也非常高兴能听到中国是全球整个技术发展大潮的重要组成部分。\nYuri Milner：有时候人们会问我，小公司资源少，如何去挑战那些有几十亿现金储备的巨头。我认为虽然初创公司占据劣势，但他们之所以能挑战巨头，最大的动力来源于创始人的动机。创始人的动机转化成为他们对公司的主人翁精神，以及努力去招聘最好的人才，并且让他们共同持有公司股份。即便是最好的工程师，他们在这些大的成熟企业中也没办法获得足够的股权，所以这些初创企业创始人最有效的武器，就是给团队合理的股份，一起去分享未来的成功。这就是创企业能够与巨头竞争的最有效的武器。\n元宇宙平台更适合由大型公司创建\n沈南鹏：我们讲到新的趋势，最近Facebook把名字改成了Meta，而且Metaverse也变成了新兴词，成为了人们津津乐道的话题。您是怎么看Metaverse的？大概两年之前，我记得我们一起看了电影《头号玩家》，讨论这可能就是未来虚拟世界的样子，我们会花费大量的时间沉浸在这个世界中。\nYuri Milner：是的，当我们看那部电影的时候，实际上工程师们已经在创造相关产品了。现在元宇宙最大的应用就是在游戏方面，但是我相信这仅仅是一个开端。\n当我们在讨论Metaverse的时候，我们需要先去思考几个问题：\n第一，如果你想参与进Metaverse中来，究竟应该采取怎样的策略？我认为Metaverse平台只可能由那些大型公司创建，比如说Facebook、腾讯，或者是其他的大型成熟公司。因为真正要建立核心平台需要很多的投资，每年都需要投入几十亿美金或者更多，而且需要持续投资10-20年，我相信这种做法只有大型企业才能做到。\n第二，Metaverse不仅仅对软件，同时也对新的硬件开发，甚至是新的处理器有要求，而硬件投资也同样需要很大的投入。Metaverse需要使用大量的传感器，才能做到和人体无缝协作和互动，去模仿人类的动作，而且传感器还得足够小，不能打扰人的正常动作，这本身也要求非常大的投资。另一方面，Metaverse是一个极为开放的环境，需要围绕这些硬件做大量的应用程序开发。\n成功创始人的三大共性\n沈南鹏：我们所有人都期待看到新的数据化以及新的应用出现，您投资了全世界很多的知名公司，从小米、美团这些中国公司到Robinhood、Spotify等欧美企业。您觉得这些优秀的创始人、CEO有什么共性？共同的特点是怎样的？\nYuri Milner：在过去十年中，有10家私有企业达到了一千亿美元的估值，而且我们非常幸运地投资了其中的8家。当然，我相信将来会有越来越多这样的公司出现，他们甚至能够超过一千亿美元的估值。\n但就目前来看，通过我对这几家企业的观察，我认为所有成功创始人都拥有以下三点共性：\n1、好奇心。当我和他们待的时间足够长之后，我发现他们所有人都拥有强烈的好奇心。他们的好奇心不仅仅围绕在他们建立的公司上，而且是对广泛事物的好奇。\n2、结构化的思维方式。依靠这种思维方式，他们不仅仅要深入理解用户，并要以此来设计产品，还要知道如何建设组织，而且这样的结构性思维是可以同等应用在公司内外的。他们当中很多人创造了独特技术和产品，并不仅仅是为了用户，也为了他们的员工和内部团队，帮助他们进行组织的管理。\n3、对人的理解。我们把它称作心理学，因为需要有非常强的理解能力和共情能力，才能够吸引最好的团队成员，吸引到最好的工程师，去理解不同的人背后的动机，根据不同的人去调整，因为人们背后的驱动动机是完全不同的，所以我觉得深度了解心理学的才能成为成功的创业者。\n我认为这三点远远超过于他们所从事的商业本身。\n坚持投资基础科学\n试图了解和探索宇宙\n沈南鹏：谈到技术投资，以及未来的趋势，我们要做的是脚踏实地的行动，同时探索星辰大海。\n前几天，红杉中国在上海捐赠了世界顶尖科学家协会奖，这是一个面向全球的鼓励原创基础科研的大奖。我知道您和一些企业家也创立了“突破奖”。所以我们想要听一下您为什么要创立这个奖项，您是如何看待非盈利性投入的？\nYuri Milner：我前十年的职业生涯都投入到了科学研究，可以说科学和我之间有着密切的关系。在商界周游了一圈后，我希望能为科学做出一些贡献，所以我的第一个想法就是设立奖项。全世界已经有很多奖项了，其中一些可能像诺贝尔奖这么重量级，那为什么还要多一个奖呢？\n据我观察，虽然有一些奖项更为知名，但是他们并没有花很多的时间去宣传。科学家是文明进步的领航员，时代的英雄，推广或者公关活动能让这些科学家为众人所知，所以我们并不仅仅建立了全球最大的科学奖（三百万美元），还在宣传方面进行了巨大的投资，每年的11月我们会在硅谷举办颁奖典礼。\n如今，这个奖项也受到了众多创始人的支持，其中包括Facebook、腾讯、谷歌的创始人，毫无疑问这是全球性的奖项。而我们奖项的获奖者也来自于全世界各地，分成三个领域：生命科学、物理学和数学。但这个奖项的核心目的还是推广这些科学家，我们做了一些短视频，数百万人在互联网上观看了颁奖仪式。而且我们大量去宣传科学家的发现、发明，甚至为他们提供经济奖励，这就是关于我们科学奖的目的。\n有很多项目可能我们没有提，作为非盈利性的项目，它们都和科学有着紧密的联系。最早推出的一个项目是“Breakthrough Listen”，这是全球最重要的探测外星文明信号的研究项目，也就是探测来自外星人的信号，如果它们存在的话。我并不是假设它们存在，而是通过科学实验，并以非常严格的方式找出是否有任何无线电信号从外太空传给我们。因为如果另外一个文明确实存在，那么不可避免地会使用无线电作为远距离通信成本最低的方式。因此，我们通过使用世界上最大的射电望远镜，包括参与此项目的中国射电望远镜，看看是否有任何来自宇宙的信号。\n几个月前，我们发现了第一个有待进一步考证的信号，是来自于最近的半人马座Alpha星。在这个星球中可能会有生命存在，因为它的温度和地球很接近，我们还在继续研究这样的信号，同时也在看其他的投资，有些杂志已经发表了关于这个话题的文章。这个话题仍然很神秘，同时也吸引着我们的兴趣。\n第二个项目是“Starstruck”，这是一种以非常严格的工程方式开发星际间旅行技术的尝试。埃隆·马斯克和杰夫·贝索斯都在研究太阳系的旅行，埃隆·马斯克正在考虑去火星，而杰夫·贝索斯则更关注月球。但这些探索都是使用更传统的化学燃料技术在太阳系中旅行，我们也在看有没有其他的技术，可以用来让我们旅行得更远、更快，能够让人类前往外星旅行。\n我刚才讲到了半人马座Alpha星，我们也在投上亿美元的基金，进行人类工程方面的挑战。看有哪些技术可以让我们以大约10%的光速去做星际旅行，能够让我们抵达比较近地系的，比如说千光年以外的星，而不是说更远的光年外的星，看需要哪些技术的储备。\n沈南鹏：“Breakthrough Listen”项目主要寻找外星文明，有哪些不同的做法？与早期研究这个方向的类似项目相比，这个项目用了哪些不同的方法？\nYuri Milner：最早是在60年代推出过这样的尝试，但现在技术日新月异的发展，比如射电天文望远镜，我们能够调动地球上全部的现有资源来研究我们的课题。过去的研究主要采用地球上已有的无线电射电望远镜，现在我们大概借用其1/4的时间和算力去研究课题，这个之前是没有过的，之前可能是很小的时间比例，这是第一点。\n第二，我们有软硬件结合的方法，我们现在有更加高量级的服务器，有AI来做信号的解读和处理。因为每秒钟传来的信号量是非常大的，只有AI才能帮助我们梳理这些信号的数据，试图找出一些比较有潜力的、可以仔细观察的信号。\n沈南鹏：当下的确是非常令人振奋的时期，之前我们可能没办法开展这方面的工作，因为现在有了AI这样的技术，给了我们更好的机会去探索外太空。您最近也写了一本书，叫Eureka Manifesto（《尤里卡宣言》，尤里卡是古希腊语，意为“我找到了！”“我发现了！”），很有意思的名字。能不能跟我们讲一下这本书您想传达什么样的观点，想跟我们的听众、读者传达什么样的信号？您谈到了整个文明的使命，是什么使命？\nYuri Milner：我过去20年一直在琢磨怎么写这本书，终于在过去一年半里，借疫情无法出行的时间，利用周末写成了。我简单介绍一下这本书的内容：我们每一个获得成功的组织，比如说成功的企业，都需要有自己的使命宣言，比如说谷歌的使命宣言是“把全球信息组织起来，让全球可及”，或者Facebook是“希望连接世界，给每个人发声的机会”。\n如果你把我们的文明作为一个整体来看，实际上并没有提出过任何合理的使命，没有这一使命意味着我们无法共同作出重大的一致努力来实现某些目标。所以我问自己，如果现在给整个文明确立一个使命，这个使命会是什么。我提出了一个我认为可能的选择，那就是了解和探索宇宙。\n我认为这是一个最为有机、自然的使命。为什么说是非常有机的？因为对于我们人类而言，这是与生俱来就存在的使命。从4亿年前细胞分裂的第一刻开始，纯粹去探索宇宙的初心就已经存在，因为这是最优的生存策略。我们的细胞、多细胞生物体都是如此，还有哺乳动物、人类，都是在某种程度上去探索周围的世界，当然这也是宇宙的一部分，我们试图去理解、领会，然后获得与其他物种间的竞争优势。我认为现在已经到达了这样的时刻：每个人都要思考能不能达成统一的使命，然后通过集体努力，去更好地追求这个使命，更好地探究、了解宇宙。\n为什么这个使命非常重要？有些人可能会说不太务实，确实我们还存在很多棘手、紧迫的现实问题需要我们去关注和解决，解决了这些我们才能去想这些更抽象、更远大的问题。我的回答是，如果大家看过去500年的科学进步的话，它发生的背后都是因为一些非常纯粹的由求知欲推动的科学研究，科学家的求知欲带来了一些科技的突破和进步。\n举个例子，我们现在能用到手机，不需要有线缆，也是因为在19世纪有一位英国的科学家，叫做麦克斯韦，他预测无线电将会普及，于是带着纯粹的心态进行了探索。几十年之后，德国的一位科学家赫兹发现了这样的无线电波，有了无线电波之后，我们现在慢慢有了无线手机。如果没有他这种纯粹的智慧上的探索，或是只是有想法没动手的话，我们或许仍没有手机可以使用。\n另外一个例子，量子力学。量子力学大概是在一百年前被提出的，当时不是因为已经有了一些应用，而是人们希望解决一些物理学中的现象。过了几十年后我们看到已经有人开始将量子力学应用在晶体管里了，而晶体管现在又被用在了电脑里。\n以上这两个例子表明，如果我们在支持基础科学研究的同时，再怀抱试图了解宇宙的使命，我们就能够在更深刻理解宇宙的同时去想出一些突破，这些突破可能是我们现在没办法想出来的，有些也会惠及人们，比如说现在的量子计算机，很多技术型企业都在做量子计算机的攻关。就是因为在100年前的求知欲推动着我们发明了量子力学，所以才使现在的量子计算机成为可能，所以在纯粹的探索和实际应用之间总是有直接的联系。有时我们会失去这种联系，因为它没有得到清晰的解释和阐述，但这种联系确实存在，我们需要继续投资于基础科学，以寻找我们今天都无法想象的未来技术。\n沈南鹏：科学发现和创造的本意不是去解决一些生活中的问题，但恰恰科学正是我们解决现实生活中短期和中期技术挑战的唯一方法，而且更像你所说的，是我们仰望星空、探求文明使命的唯一方法。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870887861,"gmtCreate":1636600767807,"gmtModify":1636600768149,"author":{"id":"3570220781625377","authorId":"3570220781625377","name":"XiaoZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a906c12b69962b4dd222f51848e4d05","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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