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boluo613

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IP属地：山东

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9主题

0勋章

11-06

‌$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$ ‌关键摇摆州的数据还没，感觉上次的曲线要上演了

10-09

朱雪莹是谁？高盛的CEO?

2023-03-13

‌$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ ‌我的麻,周五没加仓

2022-11-18

$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ 有看懂的吗？

2022-11-18

to the moon‌[龇牙] ‌

Provention Bio's type 1 diabetes med teplizumab wins FDA approval

2022-11-18

‌$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ ‌TZIELD™ (teplizumab-mzwv) approved by FDA as the first and only treatment indicated to delay the onset of Stage 3 type 1 diabetes (T1D) in adult and pediatric patients aged 8 years and older with Stage 2 T1D 由FDA批准的Tzield™（teplizumab-MZWV）是第一种也是唯一的治疗方法，该治疗方法延迟了8岁及8岁以上的成人和儿科患者的第3期1型糖尿病（T1D）的发作。

2022-10-12

死叉下面一直叉下去的操作, 营商环境越来越嚎的情况下,各位业余散户都不能的愚蠢操作,出现在专业的基金经理操作中, 越看越像笑话‌[捂脸] ‌

私募魔女李蓓已出手抄底，A股当前踏空风险大于被套风险

2022-08-05

‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$‌如果2.4-2.6差不多是底部附件的话，推荐SQQQ‌[得意] ‌

2022-08-04

‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$‌个人认为纳指超买了，通胀基本没变，油价还这么高如果纳指明天回调，，很难不被带下去，猜测明天到下周2.6+，好事多磨，别急各位。都是波浪哪有一柱擎天到月球的道理‌[微笑] ‌

2022-08-04

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$别忘了大盘貌似超买了，基本面通胀没变多少，悠着点

2022-08-03

‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$‌看一个机构在2.65入30.44万股，晚上一定有众多机构拉台一波拭目以待。咱们猜一猜最高能到多少，看谁接近，我先来：最高3.09。盘后到2.62‌[贱笑]

2022-08-02

‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$‌又是跟着纳指波形走。。。机构的区间交易很智能啊

2022-07-27

‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$‌今晚机构筑底筑地还可以

2021-10-26

$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ 今天有消息+10%是什么情况？

2021-06-22

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 筑底中要有耐心

2021-06-18

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 机构又在那买，小户又在那抛。。。。

2021-06-17

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 这么打的交易量，不起飞才怪，12.8+↑

2021-06-15

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 哇塞这么猛？

2021-06-14

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 4600万流通股，很容易被操纵，看能不能跟着机构找到时机，我觉得被套牢的兄弟别沮丧

2021-04-23

你是盖了医院了，还是盖的学校了，还是增加福利了，让百姓生

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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‌关键摇摆州的数据还没，感觉上次的曲线要上演了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1245fd31a08ed25b0878b8437c08721","width":"200","height":"200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367901368438992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4165787134050210","authorId":"4165787134050210","name":"业余的全职专业投资人","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4165787134050210","authorIdStr":"4165787134050210"},"content":"特朗普己领先，特朗普胜选总统的概率非常大，特朗普有望胜选！【美国大选开票结果】最新进展是：特朗普目前领先。汇通财经据已报的开票数据统计，截止至北京时间11月6日9:30，结合最新结果“开票统计”显示，哈里斯(民主党)合计赢得36张选举人票(4个选区)。特朗普(共和党)合计赢得99张选举人票(9个选区)。特朗普目前领先；美国总统大选以选举人票数决定大选结果，总计538张选举人票，获得过半者即≥270张就赢得大选。","text":"特朗普己领先，特朗普胜选总统的概率非常大，特朗普有望胜选！【美国大选开票结果】最新进展是：特朗普目前领先。汇通财经据已报的开票数据统计，截止至北京时间11月6日9:30，结合最新结果“开票统计”显示，哈里斯(民主党)合计赢得36张选举人票(4个选区)。特朗普(共和党)合计赢得99张选举人票(9个选区)。特朗普目前领先；美国总统大选以选举人票数决定大选结果，总计538张选举人票，获得过半者即≥270张就赢得大选。","html":"特朗普己领先，特朗普胜选总统的概率非常大，特朗普有望胜选！【美国大选开票结果】最新进展是：特朗普目前领先。汇通财经据已报的开票数据统计，截止至北京时间11月6日9:30，结合最新结果“开票统计”显示，哈里斯(民主党)合计赢得36张选举人票(4个选区)。特朗普(共和党)合计赢得99张选举人票(9个选区)。特朗普目前领先；美国总统大选以选举人票数决定大选结果，总计538张选举人票，获得过半者即≥270张就赢得大选。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358069173780616,"gmtCreate":1728437915810,"gmtModify":1728437917779,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"朱雪莹是谁？高盛的CEO?","listText":"朱雪莹是谁？高盛的CEO?","text":"朱雪莹是谁？高盛的CEO?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358069173780616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627788185,"gmtCreate":1678694969647,"gmtModify":1678695137855,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRVB\">$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ &nbsp;</a>有看懂的吗？","text":"$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ 有看懂的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667200738","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"content":"学习了，虽然不全懂。不知道我想的对不对：是不是空只是暂时的，做多期权太多了，吃完才能起来，因为早已板上钉钉的大利好。感觉一直跟纳指反向相关，感觉流通股少比较容易被操作","text":"学习了，虽然不全懂。不知道我想的对不对：是不是空只是暂时的，做多期权太多了，吃完才能起来，因为早已板上钉钉的大利好。感觉一直跟纳指反向相关，感觉流通股少比较容易被操作","html":"学习了，虽然不全懂。不知道我想的对不对：是不是空只是暂时的，做多期权太多了，吃完才能起来，因为早已板上钉钉的大利好。感觉一直跟纳指反向相关，感觉流通股少比较容易被操作"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667606941,"gmtCreate":1668739138383,"gmtModify":1668739140289,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"to the moon‌<a href=\"\">[龇牙]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"to the moon‌<a href=\"\">[龇牙]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"to the moon‌[龇牙] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667606941","repostId":"2284745607","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2284745607","pubTimestamp":1668726089,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2284745607?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-18 07:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Provention Bio's type 1 diabetes med teplizumab wins FDA approval","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284745607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The US FDA has granted approval to Provention Bio (NASDAQ:PRVB) for Tzield (teplizumab) to delay the","content":"<html><body> <ul> <li>The US FDA has granted approval to Provention Bio (<span>NASDAQ:PRVB</span>) for Tzield (teplizumab) to delay the onset of stage 3 of type 1 diabetes (T1D).</li> <li>The first-in-class medicine is given via intravenous infusion daily for 14 consecutive days.</li> <li>The therapy works by binding to specific immune system cells. It may also deactivate the immune cells that attack insulin-producing cells, while increasing the amount of cells that can moderate an immune response.</li> <li>Approval was based on the results of a placebo-controlled trial that showed over a median follow-up of 51 months, 45% of patients who received Tzield were later diagnosed with stage 3 T1D, compared to 72% of those on a placebo.</li> <li>Provention Bio (PRVB) shares soared earlier in November after the FDA issued proposed labeling for teplizumab.</li> </ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Provention Bio's type 1 diabetes med teplizumab wins FDA approval</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProvention Bio's type 1 diabetes med teplizumab wins FDA approval\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-18 07:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909501-provention-bio-type-1-diabetes-med-teplizumab-wins-fda-approval><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The US FDA has granted approval to Provention Bio (NASDAQ:PRVB) for Tzield (teplizumab) to delay the onset of stage 3 of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The first-in-class medicine is given via intravenous ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909501-provention-bio-type-1-diabetes-med-teplizumab-wins-fda-approval\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/810721154/image_810721154.jpg","relate_stocks":{"PRVB":"Provention Bio, Inc","BK4007":"制药"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909501-provention-bio-type-1-diabetes-med-teplizumab-wins-fda-approval","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2284745607","content_text":"The US FDA has granted approval to Provention Bio (NASDAQ:PRVB) for Tzield (teplizumab) to delay the onset of stage 3 of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The first-in-class medicine is given via intravenous infusion daily for 14 consecutive days. The therapy works by binding to specific immune system cells. It may also deactivate the immune cells that attack insulin-producing cells, while increasing the amount of cells that can moderate an immune response. Approval was based on the results of a placebo-controlled trial that showed over a median follow-up of 51 months, 45% of patients who received Tzield were later diagnosed with stage 3 T1D, compared to 72% of those on a placebo. Provention Bio (PRVB) shares soared earlier in November after the FDA issued proposed labeling for teplizumab.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":667843701,"gmtCreate":1668726575903,"gmtModify":1668726577328,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRVB\">$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ &nbsp;</a>‌TZIELD™ (teplizumab-mzwv) approved by FDA as the first and only treatment indicated to delay the onset of Stage 3 type 1 diabetes (T1D) in adult and pediatric patients aged 8 years and older with Stage 2 T1D 由FDA批准的Tzield™（teplizumab-MZWV）是第一种也是唯一的治疗方法，该治疗方法延迟了8岁及8岁以上的成人和儿科患者的第3期1型糖尿病（T1D）的发作。","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRVB\">$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ &nbsp;</a>‌TZIELD™ (teplizumab-mzwv) approved by FDA as the first and only treatment indicated to delay the onset of Stage 3 type 1 diabetes (T1D) in adult and pediatric patients aged 8 years and older with Stage 2 T1D 由FDA批准的Tzield™（teplizumab-MZWV）是第一种也是唯一的治疗方法，该治疗方法延迟了8岁及8岁以上的成人和儿科患者的第3期1型糖尿病（T1D）的发作。","text":"‌$Provention Bio, Inc(PRVB)$ ‌TZIELD™ (teplizumab-mzwv) approved by FDA as the first and only treatment indicated to delay the onset of Stage 3 type 1 diabetes (T1D) in adult and pediatric patients aged 8 years and older with Stage 2 T1D 由FDA批准的Tzield™（teplizumab-MZWV）是第一种也是唯一的治疗方法，该治疗方法延迟了8岁及8岁以上的成人和儿科患者的第3期1型糖尿病（T1D）的发作。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667843701","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666880901,"gmtCreate":1665548164603,"gmtModify":1665550905771,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"死叉下面一直叉下去的操作, 营商环境越来越嚎的情况下,各位业余散户都不能的愚蠢操作,出现在专业的基金经理操作中, 越看越像笑话‌<a href=\"\">[捂脸]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"死叉下面一直叉下去的操作, 营商环境越来越嚎的情况下,各位业余散户都不能的愚蠢操作,出现在专业的基金经理操作中, 越看越像笑话‌<a href=\"\">[捂脸]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"死叉下面一直叉下去的操作, 营商环境越来越嚎的情况下,各位业余散户都不能的愚蠢操作,出现在专业的基金经理操作中, 越看越像笑话‌[捂脸] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666880901","repostId":"2274571145","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2274571145","pubTimestamp":1665532450,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2274571145?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-12 07:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"私募魔女李蓓已出手抄底，A股当前踏空风险大于被套风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274571145","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"投资逻辑值得回味。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今年来对大势判断准确的李蓓，或已开始动手抄底A股。</p><p>李蓓在最新发给持有人的报告中称，<b>9月末开始她逐步抄底A股，虽然市场仍存在进一步下跌空间，但当前踏空的风险已经大于被套的风险，值得左侧逐渐入场。</b></p><p>李蓓还态度积极地表示：后续（A股）市场的潜在下跌空间已经非常有限，由于当前市场情绪悲观，基本面底有可能提前出现。</p><p>李蓓是内地私募业界少有的兼具“专业”和“流量”的明星人物。她语言率直、立场鲜明、敢说敢言、专业背景突出。</p><p>她尤其善于从宏观波动中寻找投资机会。她曾就职于交银施罗德基金，后在私募机构泓湖投资合伙人、投资总监，2015年发起创立宏观策略的半夏投资，目前受托管理规模超过50亿元。</p><h2><b>现在要警惕踏空的风险</b></h2><p>李蓓在落款日期为2022年10月10日的基金月报中指出：旗下基金9月初的股票类(个股+期货+期权)仓位为个位数，但9月末开始逐步抄底加仓。</p><p>她透露了年内基金操作的细节：</p><blockquote>4-5月参与阶段性的A股反弹后，从6月开始重新降低了A股仓位，等待机会。</blockquote><blockquote>7月到9月A股再度大幅下跌。但7月-9月的A股下跌中，（半夏投资）选择轻仓躲避风险，而没有做空，预判这是A股两年弱市的最后一波下跌。</blockquote><blockquote>9月末开始，半夏投资逐步抄底A股。虽然当时知道市场依然处于左侧，但是，当前踏空的风险已经大于被套的风险，值得左侧逐渐入场。</blockquote><h2><b>A股牛市将现</b></h2><p>李蓓还从五个维度阐述了新一轮A股牛市的投资逻辑：</p><p>第一，从估值来看，当前A股市场各主要指数，无论以PE，PB，还是风险溢价衡量，都已经处于历史最低估值区间附近，即便下跌到历史最低估值，也仅有10%左右的下跌空间。</p><p>第二、从情绪来看，当前私募基金仓位仅50%多，处于历史最低水平附近，保险公司股票仓位也在历史低位附近。机构情绪低迷。散户情绪同样低迷，融资余额和融资买入占比，都跌破4月低点。</p><p>第三，从流动性角度，国内货币增速持续走高，利率维持低位。中国实现了非常难得的一点：货币政策的自主性。不用被迫跟随美国加息，兑一篮子货币的汇率，依然保持了稳定。因为货币政策和利率自主，资产价格就有了自主性的可能，不用跟着美国跌。</p><p>第四，企业盈利的下滑正在兑现，三季度很有可能就是基本面最差的阶段，是盈利最差的一个单季度业绩。也就是利空正在出尽。</p><p>第五，美国本轮衰退，大概率以软着陆形式实现，需求不会大幅下滑。国内消费地产的双重企稳回升，足以抵消出口下滑的影响。</p><h2><b>新一轮朱格拉周期将启动</b></h2><p>李蓓还指出：过去的十年是制造业投资增速长期大幅下行，制造业去杠杆完成的十年。</p><p>这也就意味着未来的十年，<b>中国制造业有了更好的起点和基础，将会迎来新的一轮朱格拉周期，也就是产能投资周期。</b></p><p>她预期，随着本轮地产的调整逐步结束，在欧美经济的衰退兑现后，中美欧等经济体的总需求会企稳。到时新兴市场的需求会带动全球总需求再次进入新的上升周期，后者也会带动企业盈利进入新的上升周期。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>私募魔女李蓓已出手抄底，A股当前踏空风险大于被套风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n私募魔女李蓓已出手抄底，A股当前踏空风险大于被套风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-12 07:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672114><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年来对大势判断准确的李蓓，或已开始动手抄底A股。李蓓在最新发给持有人的报告中称，9月末开始她逐步抄底A股，虽然市场仍存在进一步下跌空间，但当前踏空的风险已经大于被套的风险，值得左侧逐渐入场。李蓓还态度积极地表示：后续（A股）市场的潜在下跌空间已经非常有限，由于当前市场情绪悲观，基本面底有可能提前出现。李蓓是内地私募业界少有的兼具“专业”和“流量”的明星人物。她语言率直、立场鲜明、敢说敢言、专业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672114\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672114","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274571145","content_text":"今年来对大势判断准确的李蓓，或已开始动手抄底A股。李蓓在最新发给持有人的报告中称，9月末开始她逐步抄底A股，虽然市场仍存在进一步下跌空间，但当前踏空的风险已经大于被套的风险，值得左侧逐渐入场。李蓓还态度积极地表示：后续（A股）市场的潜在下跌空间已经非常有限，由于当前市场情绪悲观，基本面底有可能提前出现。李蓓是内地私募业界少有的兼具“专业”和“流量”的明星人物。她语言率直、立场鲜明、敢说敢言、专业背景突出。她尤其善于从宏观波动中寻找投资机会。她曾就职于交银施罗德基金，后在私募机构泓湖投资合伙人、投资总监，2015年发起创立宏观策略的半夏投资，目前受托管理规模超过50亿元。现在要警惕踏空的风险李蓓在落款日期为2022年10月10日的基金月报中指出：旗下基金9月初的股票类(个股+期货+期权)仓位为个位数，但9月末开始逐步抄底加仓。她透露了年内基金操作的细节：4-5月参与阶段性的A股反弹后，从6月开始重新降低了A股仓位，等待机会。7月到9月A股再度大幅下跌。但7月-9月的A股下跌中，（半夏投资）选择轻仓躲避风险，而没有做空，预判这是A股两年弱市的最后一波下跌。9月末开始，半夏投资逐步抄底A股。虽然当时知道市场依然处于左侧，但是，当前踏空的风险已经大于被套的风险，值得左侧逐渐入场。A股牛市将现李蓓还从五个维度阐述了新一轮A股牛市的投资逻辑：第一，从估值来看，当前A股市场各主要指数，无论以PE，PB，还是风险溢价衡量，都已经处于历史最低估值区间附近，即便下跌到历史最低估值，也仅有10%左右的下跌空间。第二、从情绪来看，当前私募基金仓位仅50%多，处于历史最低水平附近，保险公司股票仓位也在历史低位附近。机构情绪低迷。散户情绪同样低迷，融资余额和融资买入占比，都跌破4月低点。第三，从流动性角度，国内货币增速持续走高，利率维持低位。中国实现了非常难得的一点：货币政策的自主性。不用被迫跟随美国加息，兑一篮子货币的汇率，依然保持了稳定。因为货币政策和利率自主，资产价格就有了自主性的可能，不用跟着美国跌。第四，企业盈利的下滑正在兑现，三季度很有可能就是基本面最差的阶段，是盈利最差的一个单季度业绩。也就是利空正在出尽。第五，美国本轮衰退，大概率以软着陆形式实现，需求不会大幅下滑。国内消费地产的双重企稳回升，足以抵消出口下滑的影响。新一轮朱格拉周期将启动李蓓还指出：过去的十年是制造业投资增速长期大幅下行，制造业去杠杆完成的十年。这也就意味着未来的十年，中国制造业有了更好的起点和基础，将会迎来新的一轮朱格拉周期，也就是产能投资周期。她预期，随着本轮地产的调整逐步结束，在欧美经济的衰退兑现后，中美欧等经济体的总需求会企稳。到时新兴市场的需求会带动全球总需求再次进入新的上升周期，后者也会带动企业盈利进入新的上升周期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685510078,"gmtCreate":1659707592999,"gmtModify":1659707592999,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a 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Future(FFIE)$</a>别忘了大盘貌似超买了，基本面通胀没变多少，悠着点","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$别忘了大盘貌似超买了，基本面通胀没变多少，悠着点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685603890","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685356159,"gmtCreate":1659449676473,"gmtModify":1659449676473,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>‌又是跟着纳指波形走。。。机构的区间交易很智能啊","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>‌又是跟着纳指波形走。。。机构的区间交易很智能啊","text":"‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$‌又是跟着纳指波形走。。。机构的区间交易很智能啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65f72b145f479b3d33080bef95886bf","width":"200","height":"200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685356159","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398625413,"gmtCreate":1606895840032,"gmtModify":1703845170760,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拜登个老年痴呆，说着都能睡着的人。一堆贪官污吏组建内阁。执政47年无所作为的人，你指望他还能干点啥？上来就喊着加税，市场是靠加税起来的吗？","listText":"拜登个老年痴呆，说着都能睡着的人。一堆贪官污吏组建内阁。执政47年无所作为的人，你指望他还能干点啥？上来就喊着加税，市场是靠加税起来的吗？","text":"拜登个老年痴呆，说着都能睡着的人。一堆贪官污吏组建内阁。执政47年无所作为的人，你指望他还能干点啥？上来就喊着加税，市场是靠加税起来的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398625413","repostId":"2088722821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2088722821","pubTimestamp":1606880621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2088722821?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-02 11:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"展望2021：货币宽松经济复苏，看多美股A股人民币","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2088722821","media":"第一财经","summary":"摘要：2021年全球维持疫情后经济复苏趋势，货币政策偏宽松，经济恢复上行，股强于债，看多美股，尤其人民币升值背景下，看多A股。2021年美国社会分裂的修复过程，伴随着货币宽松与经济复苏，将推高通胀。通","content":"<div>\n<p>摘要：2021年全球维持疫情后经济复苏趋势，货币政策偏宽松，经济恢复上行，股强于债，看多美股，尤其人民币升值背景下，看多A股。2021年美国社会分裂的修复过程，伴随着货币宽松与经济复苏，将推高通胀。通胀预期，配合经济复苏后原油需求反弹，以及抗通胀资金对原油的被动配置，叠加OPEC+能够维持减产，原油价格可能经历趋势性复苏，建议关注相关原油基金、原油石化类股票。一、2020年回顾：疫情下的货币大宽松...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/100860759.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>展望2021：货币宽松经济复苏，看多美股A股人民币</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n展望2021：货币宽松经济复苏，看多美股A股人民币\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-02 11:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.yicai.com/news/100860759.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：2021年全球维持疫情后经济复苏趋势，货币政策偏宽松，经济恢复上行，股强于债，看多美股，尤其人民币升值背景下，看多A股。2021年美国社会分裂的修复过程，伴随着货币宽松与经济复苏，将推高通胀。通胀预期，配合经济复苏后原油需求反弹，以及抗通胀资金对原油的被动配置，叠加OPEC+能够维持减产，原油价格可能经历趋势性复苏，建议关注相关原油基金、原油石化类股票。一、2020年回顾：疫情下的货币大宽松...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/100860759.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/100860759.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2088722821","content_text":"摘要：2021年全球维持疫情后经济复苏趋势，货币政策偏宽松，经济恢复上行，股强于债，看多美股，尤其人民币升值背景下，看多A股。2021年美国社会分裂的修复过程，伴随着货币宽松与经济复苏，将推高通胀。通胀预期，配合经济复苏后原油需求反弹，以及抗通胀资金对原油的被动配置，叠加OPEC+能够维持减产，原油价格可能经历趋势性复苏，建议关注相关原油基金、原油石化类股票。一、2020年回顾：疫情下的货币大宽松2020年新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延，打破了2019年底所有经济复苏计划。为应对全球经济2018年10月以来下行，美联储2019年9月带头开启降息，并重启QE。实际上，我们2019年底判断美国经济再开始周期性复苏，但2020年的疫情打断了这样的进程。在2020年经济本已经周期性复苏、美国重启库存周期之前，我们简单回顾2018~2019年的情况。2018年10月全球经济结束2016年以来复苏，A股从3500点一路回落到2500点，布伦特原油期货也从85美元/桶左右的高位一路跌到50美元/桶左右。2018年有三件事情超出市场预期：第一，2018年3月开始的中美贸易摩擦，影响中国最重要的外需市场，导致市场风险偏好回落；第二，2018年管理层设计的漂亮去杠杆路径，无意中伤害到国内中小企业经营，导致民营企业杠杆率被动上升，市场对这方面政策影响力出现低估；第三，以美联储加息为代表的全球流动性偏紧。2019年市场没有从2018年10月开启的下跌中缓过来。在中美贸易摩擦背景下，2019年美欧日中PMI持续下行，欧元区PMI从2017年12月份的60.6一路下行到2019年9月份的45.7；美国经济自2018年6月份以来持续下行，到2019年9月份GDP增速不变价折年数2.03%。面对经济下行压力，美联储紧急开启“预判式”降息——2019年7月、9月、10月连续三次降息，并于2019年9月份开始实际“扩表”，在美联储带头开启降息背景下，全球包括中国在内20余家央行在9月份先后宣布降息，虽然2019年美国经济偏弱，但欧洲更弱，美股与美元指数超预期上行。受中美贸易摩擦以及央行偏紧的货币政策影响，2019年经济面临较大下行压力。2020年全球新冠肺炎疫情暴发是最大“黑天鹅事件”事件，打断了2020年初全球经济周期性复苏预期，但“货币宽松一把梭”的逻辑在2020年演绎得非常完美。美联储吸取了2008年金融危机教训，在3月份紧急降息之后，紧接着推出了无限量QE，承接了金融市场枯竭的流动性。货币宽松直接传导到资产价格上涨，随后美股、原油等大宗商品全线反弹。美国财政部3月份紧急推出2.9万亿美元财政纾困方案，支持了居民消费支出的复苏。随后在特朗普没有实施经济封锁背景下，美国承受了疫情确诊与死亡人数上升风险，人们被迫加入工作，在市场对8月后经济复苏持续性存疑过程中，美国PMI及销售持续超预期复苏，硬是抵消了政府支出下降的影响，但美国社会也变更加分裂。二、2021年政策展望：全球维持宽货币，美国财政输出可能推高通胀美国方面，拜登上台后可能推动系列政策改变。2021年1月，拜登任职总统后，与特朗普政府政策将有很大差异，主要差异可能包括：1）最低工资水平与全民医保计划。拜登上台后一个重要任务是降低贫富差距，弥合美国社会矛盾，这体现民主党“大政府”执政理念，同样也会相应增加财政支出；2）大规模基建。按照拜登此前主张的2.2万亿美元的基建计划，通过增加政府支出来推进经济复苏，也会增加相应的财政支出；3）增加税收计划。将个人所得税的最高税率从37%提高到39.6%，将美国联邦企业所得税率从21%提高到28%等，该计划执行对科技股不利，但可能受到国会阻挠；4）对外政策缓和，有利全球经济与贸易恢复。另外11月23日，拜登提名耶伦为财政部部长，提升了市场对2021年美国的通胀预期。上一次美联储主席担任财政部长是上世纪70年代，当时也是民主党的卡特总统，把美联储主席米勒调到财政部担任部长，同时任命沃尔克为美联储主席，米勒担任财政部长期间伴随了严重的通货膨胀和高失业率，历史不会重复，但会押着同样韵脚。从背景及过去行事风格来看，耶伦作风偏“鸽派”。耶伦师从诺贝尔经济学奖得主托宾、斯蒂格利茨，长期研究劳动经济学，其丈夫是著名经济学家阿克尔洛夫，研究问题包括贫困、家庭、犯罪、歧视、货币政策等。2014年2月耶伦就任美联储主席后，2014年10月，美联储宣布退出量化宽松政策，在稳就业与稳通胀问题上选择了前者。2015~2016年联邦基金利率只完成了一次加息，随后迫于通胀上升压力开始收紧货币政策，耶伦任期结束共连续加息4次，将联邦基金目标利率提高0.75%~1.5%。耶伦上任财政部部长面临很大挑战。首先，耶伦是否能够在国会斡旋，让国会通过财政方案，面临挑战。耶伦非大公司CEO或大银行家出生，跟以前的财政部部长不一样（2008年金融危机期间，保尔森是高盛前CEO、盖特纳是纽约储备银行前行长，都有很强的关系斡旋能力），她能否在意见不合的国会斡旋，面临不确定性，当然耶伦的美联储背景将很好连接财政部与美联储的关系。其次，如果耶伦不能按照民主党计划推出一些财政支出，将可能得罪部分集团，而这些财政支出计划是非常庞大的。拜登政府的财政支出方案，包括3万亿美元新冠病毒相关失业救济、3万亿美元新能源产业投资、免除学生贷款的2万亿美元支出、对各州和地方财政的2万亿美元的补贴计划，还有4万亿美元左右的基础设施建设投资规划。这些支出很大程度上是迎合民主党选民对于社会财富分配不公、债务负担过重的财政救助愿景，但如何协调这些支出计划是个巨大的挑战。总结来讲，拜登政府将更加重视疫情、重视贫富分化问题，将加大财政支出以支持受损个人与企业。2020年8月后，在财政纾困资金缺乏的背景下，特朗普政府承受了疫情确诊人数与死亡病例上升风险（这也导致了他的下台。拜登上台后会否定特朗普的做法，在应对疫情方面采取更多的政府行动，增加财政支出。而在拜登实施新一轮财政计划之前，美国经济在2020年12月~2021年3月将承受一定的下行压力。如果拜登和耶伦的财政计划被国会通过，市场对美国财政赤字不可持续的担忧，将在2021年进一步推动美元指数下行。在美国财政赤字率攀升背景下，美国国债总额一路攀升，从2008年的10万亿美元一路上升到2020年11月的27万亿美元，占GDP比重接近130%，大量国债将使美国经济在无法快速复苏的情况下，美元信用受损。美联储方面，从11月议息会议看，美联储2021年可能维持当前的货币宽松政策，包括持续规模稳定的QE（每月约1200亿美元）以及维持联邦基金利率在0~0.25%。当前美国失业率依旧处于较高位置，预期2021年美联储货币政策只会宽松，不会收紧，按照目前QE速度，预期美联储2021年底总资产规模到9万亿美元左右。另外，1200亿美元/月的QE规模是否能够足以支持经济复苏，也是未知数，鲍威尔认为财政部应该更积极推出新一轮财政纾困政策。中国方面，随着中国经济复苏，中国央行货币将可能边际收紧，同时欧美经济复苏后，中国出口增速可能趋缓，但不改变中国名义经济增速以及工业企业利润在货币宽松后持续复苏的趋势。三、对2021年经济与资产的几大看法回顾2020年最大的投资机会来自于：1）商品及风险资产价格大幅反弹。在美联储前所未有的货币宽松政策下，全球商品伴随通胀预期大幅反弹；2）人民币汇率强势走强。中国补充欧美库存，出口强劲，人民币汇率5月以后趋势性升值机会，利多美元负债多的企业，包括造纸、航空等，另外强劲的出口推高了集装箱运价，利多海运。2021年，我们预期最大的机会：1）商品与风险资产，看好股票，尤其A股；2）依然看多人民币升值，美元趋势贬值；3）原油将伴随通胀预期，可能经历一轮报复反弹。3.1交易拜登预期：空美元美债、多美股人民币我们整体认为，拜登当选更有利于经济复苏，利好美股、黄金及原油，相对利空美元，利多人民币：1.美债长端利率走高。拜登当选后，美国新一轮财政纾困方案会较快出台，而且规模估计会超2万亿美元，这无疑将推升美债收益率以及通胀预期，长短期利差走高。2.短期利空美元，利多人民币。一方面拜登可能推行更高的财政纾困计划，导致美国财政赤字增加；另一方面，拜登在外交政策方面反对单边关税，同时希望加强盟友之间关系，更利于全球化和美元对外输出，在经济复苏初期，会导致美元周期性走弱。3.对原油有利。尽管拜登上台后可能跟伊朗关系缓和，导致伊朗原油出口，增加原油市场供应，但OPEC+减产以及拜登对页岩油开采的政策限制，将抵消这部分不利影响。此外，经济复苏与通胀预期将推高原油价格。拜登财政纾困以及降低贫富差距政策，可能更有利于经济复苏，通胀预期以及国债收益率上行。4.美元趋势走弱背景下，黄金不具备趋势走弱基础，但难有大趋势。2016年8月后，市场开始交易特朗普财政减税和基础设施投资政策，美债实际收益率开始走强，黄金下跌，但拜登当选后，通货膨胀相比经济复苏有更大可能：a.拜登可能推出新一轮财政纾困刺激，将推升财政赤字持续上升，美国CPI当月同比可能达到4%以上（超过2008年金融危机时期）；b.没有了再次减税来吸引个人部门投资，经济受税收刺激影响增长可能性较低，反而增加税收可能拖累经济；c.美国企业的高债务，可能限制美国企业资产负债表扩张，美国实际经济增长率在疫情后需要面临较长时间修复。3.2美国经济将经历补库周期，2021年上半年债熊股牛我们在2019年底即认为，美联储2019年9月开启“预判式”降息后，美国2019年底便开启新一轮补库周期——从美国销售总额同比、库存增速同比，以及PMI和OECD指标可以观察到这样一个周期，但2020年3月因为疫情，这一周期被打断，直到2020年9月开始重启，我们认为2021年这一轮补库周期会持续，背后逻辑是美国经济在货币宽松背景下的周期性复苏。同时，在补库周期下，美国经济将实现疫后恢复性增长。美国经济增长的信心主要来自消费，而消费主要看工资与失业率。2020年三季度，美国经济分析局公布的美国劳动者报酬应计薪金折年数9.30万亿美元，同比增长-0.29%；截至2020年9月，美国个人消费支出季调折年数同比-0.65%，个人消费支出尚未回到去年同期水平；9月份，美国销售总额季调同比增速0.85%，已经恢复超过去年同期水平；10月份，美国失业率季调后为6.9%，失业率持续回落。3.3美国通胀预期上行，将推动油价补涨单独把通胀拿出来说，是因为2020年美联储与美国财政部大规模纾困，可能让后续通胀成为2021年一个大趋势，对大类资产形成影响。美国通胀上行的逻辑包括：1）通胀是供应和信用的函数，信用主要在于银行的货币扩张。截至2020年10月份，美国M2达到18.78万亿美元，同比增速创纪录达到24%，这将给广义通货膨胀带来压力；2）与2008年企业资产负债表坍塌的危机不同，此次把公共事件危机这个限制因素拿掉，美国需求缺口会很快补上来，特别是这次宽松政策也是史无前例的，所以很可能引发通胀超预期上涨，甚至恶性通胀；3）美联储实施平均通胀目标，乐见资产价格高企。通胀预期上行，将利空美债（体现长短端利差上行）、利多澳元对日元、原油以及周期性大宗商品。3.4全球经济复苏逻辑下，股强于债，A股看到3600~3800点，中国国债看到3.6%~3.8%影响股票市场逻辑主要包括流动性（货币政策周期）、工业企业利润与风险偏好。2021年我们认为A股市场依然趋势走强，逻辑包括：1）中国CPI可控、PPI复苏，经济尚未过热，同时人民币不存在贬值预期、经济在疫情后维持复苏趋势、金融债务风险相对可控（国有与民营企业杠杆率在房地产“三道红杠”背景下维持下行），以及美联储维持货币宽松背景下，中国央行不会太快收紧货币，中国企业将维持资产负债表扩张，流动性将支持A股走强；2）PPI在M1同比回升预期下走强，工业企业利润维持恢复趋势，利多A股走强；3）销售回升，中国维持产成品存货上升周期；4）拜登上台后，短期内中美关系出现缓和预期，股市整体风险偏好抬升；5）疫情后全球经济周期复苏。我们预期A股会有结构性复苏，商品周期类以及5G、新能源类值得持续关注。2021年10年期国债收益率维持上行，预期震荡回升至3.6%~3.8%，主要逻辑包括：1）经济逐渐复苏，央行逐渐退出货币宽松，流动性收紧，短端利率（7天逆回购、DR007）上行；2）2021年经济复苏主旋律下（只要CPI可控、经济不过热），叠加《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》到期表外回表内，我们预期银行明年信贷不会很快收紧，社融存量同比增速有望维持在13%~14%，社融M2利差维持走阔；3）2021年中国企业经营状况与名义经济增速持续恢复，工业企业利润维持复苏增长，推动国债长短端利差持续走高。3.5人民币汇率中枢看回到6.2~6.3汇率本质上是两种货币的相对价格——背后代表的是中国与美国政府信用。两国政府信用取决于：1）该国技术与经济增长水平；2）该国央行管理该国货币能力水平。从以上两方面来看，为什么说美元进入弱周期？原因在于：1）美联储对美元的管控能力趋弱。上世纪80年代沃尔克建立了当前的美元信用：面对上世纪80年代初美国“滞涨”压力，沃尔克“铁腕”升息，甚至不惜连累卡特总统下台，建立了市场对美联储及美元的信任。而当前，美国政府为应对经济衰退大量举债，导致财政赤字不断创历史新高，而经济增长因为美国内部社会矛盾等问题面临挑战，这种情况下，财政赤字问题只能被货币化，否则政府将面临违约风险，这是美联储被现代货币理论（MMT）绑架的一个背景。截至2020年10月份，美国财政赤字3.06万亿美元，前值2.78万亿美元，持续创下历史新高。美国财政赤字占比2020年折年GDP已经达14.46%，前值13.12%，预期年底超过14%。美国取消财政赤字上限后，短期内经济增长将比较难弥补财政赤字的增加。2）美国技术与经济增长水平面临挑战。代表性例子是中国5G技术相对美国领先，这是近两个世纪以来，中国首次在科技领域超越西方国家，中国在科技研发上的突破，带来产业和资本向东方转移。3）人民币汇率不能简单从美元一个角度来看，也要从人民币自身角度——中国经济与央行态度来观察。2019年以来，中国出口额占全球比重开始上行，尤其2020年新冠肺炎疫情下，中国出口承担了欧美经济补库存缺口，导致人民币汇率走强。从未来趋势看，随着中国经济体量在全球比重的增加，人民币国际支付定位将受到进一步支撑，支持人民币汇率走强，甚至可能升破6.0。总结来讲，我们维持2021年人民币汇率持续上行的逻辑包括：1）DR007、SHIBOR利率将预期上行。经济复苏、央行狭义流动性边际收紧将继续推高明年SHIBOR利率、中国国债收益率走强，支持人民币升值；2）美元在美联储货币宽松下维持弱势周期。关注人民币升值背景下，具有较高外债企业当期利润的会计调整，比如航空、纸业等。3.6 Brent中枢上升到60~65美元/桶在供需、库存、价格结构、利率美元指数与地缘冲突逻辑框架下，我们认为2021年油价面临上升压力，Brent原油期货价格区间回升到60~65美元/桶，建议关注相关原油基金、原油石化类股票。我们认为油价上行的核心逻辑在于需求复苏下的通胀预期与减产下的库存持续下降。1）2021年货币宽松下需求周期复苏，给油价带来上行动能。有几个指标对于政策验证比较重要，一个是OECD综合领先指标，另一个是摩根大通全球制造业PMI领先指标，两者同时显示经济周期复苏趋势。需求复苏的逻辑同样通过中国10年期国债收益率来观察。历次降息降准后都对应着需求复苏，本轮降息降准预期2021年维持，10年期国债收益率有望往3.6%~3.8%区间震荡，同期原油价格也将回升。2）以OPEC+深化减产为代表的供给下行，导致库存下降。截至2020年10月，OPEC原油产量2440万桶/天，跌破2002年最低产量水平，而彼时全美商业原油库存平均在2.9亿桶左右，当前全美商业原油库存约4.9亿桶，2020年库存增长超预期，随着OPEC+和美国原油产量增速下降，库存周期将从主动去库存到被动去库存。3）金融信号：美元指数下行压力及流动性扩张。美国经济困境给美元指数带来下行压力——美元资产收益回落，资金向新兴市场回流，会打开以美元计价的原油价格上行空间。此外，美联储等5家监管机构批准修改《多德-佛兰克华尔街改革与消费者保护法》中的“沃尔克规则”，以放松对银行机构参与衍生品市场限制，金融机构被动配置原油对冲通胀，将助推油价上行。4）减产叠加疫情后需求可能超预期复苏，将推动基差走强。基差走势对中短期是一个很好的判断指标，我们观察历史经验往往如此。回顾2002年、2016年，基差走强都是价格反转信号。5）需要关注的风险：俄罗斯可能不愿配合沙特减产，而俄罗斯能够承受的油价范围在40~45美元/桶；通胀不及预期。国会由两党分别主导，拜登成为“跛脚鸭”，政策推进受阻，美国经济复苏预期受阻。（李海涛系长江商学院金融学教授、杰出院长讲席教授、中文/金融MBA项目副院长，林锡系长江商学院研究助理）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166458137,"gmtCreate":1624023553929,"gmtModify":1624023553929,"author":{"id":"3569806649777366","authorId":"3569806649777366","name":"boluo613","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76878c45deee1566c2a4439d15dcd0b5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569806649777366","authorIdStr":"3569806649777366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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