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顶你个肺a
不要哭着叫爸爸
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顶你个肺a
2021-03-10
$跟谁学(GSX)$
今晚跌30个点行不行
顶你个肺a
2021-03-06
$唯品会(VIPS)$
牛股
顶你个肺a
2021-03-06
$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$
竟然回到了我刚开始玩美股的价格[笑哭] [捂脸]
顶你个肺a
2021-03-02
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
庄家做空意愿这么大?
顶你个肺a
2021-03-01
$SpectraSCIENCE, Inc.(SCIE)$
这个刺激[龇牙] [龇牙]
顶你个肺a
2021-02-25
$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$
能跌成这样算你牛
顶你个肺a
2021-02-24
$Novation Holdings Inc.(NOHO)$
?
顶你个肺a
2021-02-20
$Enzolytics Inc.(ENZC)$
快上车
顶你个肺a
2021-02-20
$旭日升科技(ASTI)$
现在买还不晚
顶你个肺a
2021-02-20
$Blink Charging(BLNK)$
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🌙
顶你个肺a
2021-02-18
$RushNet, Inc.(RSHN)$
买了两百万股,大家随意
顶你个肺a
2021-02-18
$RushNet, Inc.(RSHN)$
这个现在立刻买
顶你个肺a
2021-02-18
$Blue Sphere Corp.(BLSP)$
现在买 最低价[OK]
顶你个肺a
2021-02-18
$如涵控股(RUHN)$
有没有机会
顶你个肺a
2021-02-17
$旭日升科技(ASTI)$
要起飞了
顶你个肺a
2021-02-16
$Bio-Path Holdings, Inc.(BPTH)$
要是真的就好了
顶你个肺a
2021-02-12
$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
打爆空头🚀
顶你个肺a
2021-02-12
$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
给爷打爆空头🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
顶你个肺a
2021-02-12
$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
顶你个肺a
2021-02-12
$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
🚀🚀🚀
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"浑水公司:跟谁学就是一个骗局,股价会跌至个位数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104367018","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"今年以来,跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”。","content":"<p>12月14日消息,知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示:<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败,股价就会跌至个位数</b>。</p><p>跟谁学盘前下挫,现跌1.75%。</p><p>今年以来,跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”,包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投,乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告,总数达十余份,指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假,注册用户造假,流量刷单,乃至证券欺诈等问题,一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动,但是回望全年,该股依然涨幅惊人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ebbfbd674b67aacd6004c666c704886\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><b>复盘第三季度财报</b></p><p>11月20日,跟谁学发布第三季度财报称,公司当季通用会计准则(GAAP)每股ADR(美国存托凭证)亏损0.57美元,净营收19.66亿元人民币,约合2.9亿美元,同比增长253%,延续了第二季度的强势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e01126a6408e1b614176a925d043ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\"></p><p>截至季度结束,跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人,同比增长134%,颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中,各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度,使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a6be98605265e990c4d5da6cf6a6df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>然而,这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战,为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务,他们的相关支出,从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是,这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速,使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。</p><p>更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%,远超过营收,导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称,这与销售支出,比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是,换个视角来看,这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上,客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因,他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币,约合1.46亿美元,超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币,而去年第三季度,他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。</p><p><b>企业财测与市场预期</b></p><p>目前,跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间,意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现,以及当下的货币汇率,华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e48eddcb2ffd3f6cefa96c7bbff66d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"></p><p>展望来年,市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%,之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提,这就是今年入学的新生不流失,同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面,跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损,只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。</p><p><b>分析与评论</b></p><p>虽然过去一年时间当中,跟谁学股价涨幅可观,但是近几个月以来,波动也极为剧烈,较之8月的141美元下得55%以上,哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之,虽然营收增长令人印象深刻,但是盈利,乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望,该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。</p><p>长期而言,中国市场的竞争将持续激烈,而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才,就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才,则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言,高增长都会伴随着挑战,但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时,要保证所有人都满意,这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下,他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出,而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2270f719183fc42b53ab41eb017c4a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是,一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然,2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年,但是具体分析,跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子,而到了明年,伴随全球疫情退却,他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。</p><p>估值方面,该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍,2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍,2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看,这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于,虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的,但是他们需要给老师发工资,定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长,这也就意味着,它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是,跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司,或者是软件app公司等量齐观了,尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14bf13ffc922f55d858586c6c304ed65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>现在,中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家,比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元,远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆,但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方,也实现了盈利。此外,还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域,业务模式也不尽相同,但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变,而这就可能会转化为价格压力,让跟谁学未来增长受限。</p><p><b>最终结论</b></p><p>当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观,而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言,该公司和股票的麻烦在于:</p><p>——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛,但是运营亏损却在扩大。</p><p>——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大,包括教师薪酬、营销支出等,这将严重限制盈利潜力。</p><p>——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势,但是到2021年,伴随疫情结束,局面就可能反转过来。</p><p>——强势增长之下,学生数以百万计,教师也成千上万,这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc04985ddbb33452465c5ca9a971c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈,若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群,这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。</p><p>——在本年度现金流为负数,且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下,跟谁学股票的市销率却很高,意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。</p><p>很可能,从下一个季度往后,市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期,给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显,市场情绪也将急转直下,使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。</p><p>如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生,那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能,同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面,投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标,以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>浑水公司:跟谁学就是一个骗局,股价会跌至个位数</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n浑水公司:跟谁学就是一个骗局,股价会跌至个位数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-14 22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月14日消息,知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示:<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败,股价就会跌至个位数</b>。</p><p>跟谁学盘前下挫,现跌1.75%。</p><p>今年以来,跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”,包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投,乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告,总数达十余份,指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假,注册用户造假,流量刷单,乃至证券欺诈等问题,一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动,但是回望全年,该股依然涨幅惊人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ebbfbd674b67aacd6004c666c704886\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><b>复盘第三季度财报</b></p><p>11月20日,跟谁学发布第三季度财报称,公司当季通用会计准则(GAAP)每股ADR(美国存托凭证)亏损0.57美元,净营收19.66亿元人民币,约合2.9亿美元,同比增长253%,延续了第二季度的强势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e01126a6408e1b614176a925d043ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\"></p><p>截至季度结束,跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人,同比增长134%,颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中,各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度,使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a6be98605265e990c4d5da6cf6a6df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>然而,这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战,为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务,他们的相关支出,从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是,这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速,使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。</p><p>更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%,远超过营收,导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称,这与销售支出,比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是,换个视角来看,这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上,客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因,他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币,约合1.46亿美元,超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币,而去年第三季度,他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。</p><p><b>企业财测与市场预期</b></p><p>目前,跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间,意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现,以及当下的货币汇率,华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e48eddcb2ffd3f6cefa96c7bbff66d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"></p><p>展望来年,市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%,之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提,这就是今年入学的新生不流失,同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面,跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损,只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。</p><p><b>分析与评论</b></p><p>虽然过去一年时间当中,跟谁学股价涨幅可观,但是近几个月以来,波动也极为剧烈,较之8月的141美元下得55%以上,哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之,虽然营收增长令人印象深刻,但是盈利,乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望,该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。</p><p>长期而言,中国市场的竞争将持续激烈,而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才,就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才,则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言,高增长都会伴随着挑战,但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时,要保证所有人都满意,这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下,他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出,而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2270f719183fc42b53ab41eb017c4a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是,一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然,2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年,但是具体分析,跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子,而到了明年,伴随全球疫情退却,他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。</p><p>估值方面,该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍,2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍,2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看,这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于,虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的,但是他们需要给老师发工资,定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长,这也就意味着,它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是,跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司,或者是软件app公司等量齐观了,尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14bf13ffc922f55d858586c6c304ed65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>现在,中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家,比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元,远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆,但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方,也实现了盈利。此外,还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域,业务模式也不尽相同,但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变,而这就可能会转化为价格压力,让跟谁学未来增长受限。</p><p><b>最终结论</b></p><p>当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观,而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言,该公司和股票的麻烦在于:</p><p>——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛,但是运营亏损却在扩大。</p><p>——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大,包括教师薪酬、营销支出等,这将严重限制盈利潜力。</p><p>——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势,但是到2021年,伴随疫情结束,局面就可能反转过来。</p><p>——强势增长之下,学生数以百万计,教师也成千上万,这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc04985ddbb33452465c5ca9a971c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈,若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群,这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。</p><p>——在本年度现金流为负数,且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下,跟谁学股票的市销率却很高,意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。</p><p>很可能,从下一个季度往后,市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期,给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显,市场情绪也将急转直下,使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。</p><p>如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生,那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能,同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面,投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标,以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f49cfbbad938b58f9d764c4f5e672e9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104367018","content_text":"12月14日消息,知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示:跟谁学就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败,股价就会跌至个位数。跟谁学盘前下挫,现跌1.75%。今年以来,跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”,包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投,乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告,总数达十余份,指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假,注册用户造假,流量刷单,乃至证券欺诈等问题,一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动,但是回望全年,该股依然涨幅惊人。复盘第三季度财报11月20日,跟谁学发布第三季度财报称,公司当季通用会计准则(GAAP)每股ADR(美国存托凭证)亏损0.57美元,净营收19.66亿元人民币,约合2.9亿美元,同比增长253%,延续了第二季度的强势。截至季度结束,跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人,同比增长134%,颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中,各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度,使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。然而,这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战,为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务,他们的相关支出,从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是,这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速,使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%,远超过营收,导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称,这与销售支出,比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是,换个视角来看,这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上,客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因,他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币,约合1.46亿美元,超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币,而去年第三季度,他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。企业财测与市场预期目前,跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间,意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现,以及当下的货币汇率,华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。展望来年,市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%,之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提,这就是今年入学的新生不流失,同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面,跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损,只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。分析与评论虽然过去一年时间当中,跟谁学股价涨幅可观,但是近几个月以来,波动也极为剧烈,较之8月的141美元下得55%以上,哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之,虽然营收增长令人印象深刻,但是盈利,乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望,该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。长期而言,中国市场的竞争将持续激烈,而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才,就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才,则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言,高增长都会伴随着挑战,但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时,要保证所有人都满意,这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下,他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出,而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是,一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然,2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年,但是具体分析,跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子,而到了明年,伴随全球疫情退却,他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。估值方面,该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍,2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍,2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看,这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于,虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的,但是他们需要给老师发工资,定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长,这也就意味着,它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是,跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司,或者是软件app公司等量齐观了,尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。现在,中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家,比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元,远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆,但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方,也实现了盈利。此外,还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域,业务模式也不尽相同,但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变,而这就可能会转化为价格压力,让跟谁学未来增长受限。最终结论当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观,而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言,该公司和股票的麻烦在于:——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛,但是运营亏损却在扩大。——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大,包括教师薪酬、营销支出等,这将严重限制盈利潜力。——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势,但是到2021年,伴随疫情结束,局面就可能反转过来。——强势增长之下,学生数以百万计,教师也成千上万,这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈,若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群,这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。——在本年度现金流为负数,且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下,跟谁学股票的市销率却很高,意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。很可能,从下一个季度往后,市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期,给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显,市场情绪也将急转直下,使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生,那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能,同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面,投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标,以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554248912702629","authorId":"3554248912702629","name":"王萨妮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059a338c1ac3da0516e1794f6b99f9b1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554248912702629","idStr":"3554248912702629"},"content":"下载个跟谁学app看一下就知道了","text":"下载个跟谁学app看一下就知道了","html":"下载个跟谁学app看一下就知道了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388410392,"gmtCreate":1613077349116,"gmtModify":1613077349116,"author":{"id":"3569249573186268","authorId":"3569249573186268","name":"顶你个肺a","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22b054ec8d4b7c7295e4bb69b7e7ddf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569249573186268","idStr":"3569249573186268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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