昊天牛牛牛的个人主页 - 老虎社区

昊天牛牛牛

昊天牛牛牛

无相无我，相由心生！

IP属地：广东

1307关注

282粉丝

10主题

0勋章

昊天牛牛牛

2022-12-30

好

@品玩:还在跟风唱衰明年？外贸人们，这些判断也许能让你冷静下来

昊天牛牛牛

2022-10-03

好

@Ivan_甘灿荣:10月重点之月来临，出现拐点的概率很高

昊天牛牛牛

2022-10-01

好

马斯克要拜贾跃亭为师，准备造擎天柱了？

昊天牛牛牛

2022-10-01

好

提醒：国庆、重阳节港股、A股休市安排

昊天牛牛牛

2022-09-13

好

@新行情:知名演员吐槽火了，一瓶饮料竟有232种配料

昊天牛牛牛

2022-08-06

最早的社交软件用QQ，那时候的情感很纯真，见过一个聊了很久的网友，线下见面一起吃了饭，去河边玩了一个下午，感觉很开心，后来就没有以后了，接下来就用了微信，刚开始加了很多以前的同学朋友，都聊的热火朝天，没多久就没什么聊的了，一切又恢复了平静，最后用了陌陌，就感觉是为了找找刺激，宣泄宣泄情绪，有同感的顶起

昊天牛牛牛

2022-05-19

好

@小虎综合资讯:东南亚独角兽Grab一季度净亏损同比收窄35%

昊天牛牛牛

2022-02-11

@SellPutAlpha:$ZM 20220211 125.0 PUT$ 卖put赚点小钱

昊天牛牛牛

2021-12-16

@Buy_Sell:🔥【12月15日】美股再跌，新能源汽车股走低，今天买点啥？

昊天牛牛牛

2021-11-19

大家早上好啊

昊天牛牛牛

2021-11-15

大家早上好啊

昊天牛牛牛

2021-11-14

大家早上好啊

昊天牛牛牛

2021-11-13

抱歉，原内容已删除

昊天牛牛牛

2021-11-10

大家早上好啊

昊天牛牛牛

2021-11-03

大家早上好啊

昊天牛牛牛

2021-11-03

大家早上好啊

昊天牛牛牛

2021-11-02

大家早上好

昊天牛牛牛

2021-10-31

大家早上好啊

昊天牛牛牛

2021-10-29

大家早上好啊

昊天牛牛牛

2021-10-28

大家早上好啊

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价时，告诉大家的油价调整低点。虽然消息面上还并未完美匹配，但不得不防此处就是油价低点的高概率（假如突发利空消息，那只能重新评估）。因此想抄底油价的朋友们，就需要利用好手头上的工具了，做多期货然后买看跌期权对冲。或者小量金字塔布局远期原油期货。三、黄金影响黄金价格的重要消息在下周的CPI数据上，因此还不好断定金价是否见底。当然，下跌速度在上周帖子里说过，由于俄罗斯的军事动员令，使得军事冲突会加剧，使得金价避险情绪有所提升，跌速也有所收窄，因此下个金价重要节点前，估计金价震荡下行为主，等待下次美联储议息会","listText":"10月重点之月来临首先祝大家国庆节快乐。国庆节期间，通常是外盘搞事情的时候，或高开或低开，反正有消息出来则波动较大。而10月第一周的消息主要在OPEC会议是否会出现减产的情况，和美股是否在美联储鸽派放风的情况下触底。鉴于10月存在诸多不确定性，因此往往这个月份在某个消息带动下见拐点的概率很高。一、美股指在标普3600点苦苦支撑的时候，美联储的二把手副主席布雷纳德终于鸽派放话了：“她承认美联储面临加息过度和加息太少的两重风险”，这与近两周联储官员一直鹰派讲话的态度，明显出现了分歧，当然最终结果如何一切要看10月公布的CPI数据。估计只要10月CPI数据不太超预期，美联储加息75基点的动力就会下降，股市自然得到喘息。技术上，在10月素来是美股的重要时间点，同时今年还是全球共振的时间点，经常是拐点出现的时间，所以需要大家密切关注。总之做了多头的朋友，买点期权对冲即可，也可以等消息明确股指反弹时，追买期货或期权。二、原油原油下周OPEC+开会，传闻减产100万桶/日，在没有其它利空消息的情况下（如伊核协议或原油增产等），对油价总有提振作用。一旦减产规模落实，油价恐怕会阶段性见底，那么75美元的油价就是未来一段时间油价的低点，想抄底的朋友要注意了。技术上，75美元就是我此前在100美元油价时，告诉大家的油价调整低点。虽然消息面上还并未完美匹配，但不得不防此处就是油价低点的高概率（假如突发利空消息，那只能重新评估）。因此想抄底油价的朋友们，就需要利用好手头上的工具了，做多期货然后买看跌期权对冲。或者小量金字塔布局远期原油期货。三、黄金影响黄金价格的重要消息在下周的CPI数据上，因此还不好断定金价是否见底。当然，下跌速度在上周帖子里说过，由于俄罗斯的军事动员令，使得军事冲突会加剧，使得金价避险情绪有所提升，跌速也有所收窄，因此下个金价重要节点前，估计金价震荡下行为主，等待下次美联储议息会","text":"10月重点之月来临首先祝大家国庆节快乐。国庆节期间，通常是外盘搞事情的时候，或高开或低开，反正有消息出来则波动较大。而10月第一周的消息主要在OPEC会议是否会出现减产的情况，和美股是否在美联储鸽派放风的情况下触底。鉴于10月存在诸多不确定性，因此往往这个月份在某个消息带动下见拐点的概率很高。一、美股指在标普3600点苦苦支撑的时候，美联储的二把手副主席布雷纳德终于鸽派放话了：“她承认美联储面临加息过度和加息太少的两重风险”，这与近两周联储官员一直鹰派讲话的态度，明显出现了分歧，当然最终结果如何一切要看10月公布的CPI数据。估计只要10月CPI数据不太超预期，美联储加息75基点的动力就会下降，股市自然得到喘息。技术上，在10月素来是美股的重要时间点，同时今年还是全球共振的时间点，经常是拐点出现的时间，所以需要大家密切关注。总之做了多头的朋友，买点期权对冲即可，也可以等消息明确股指反弹时，追买期货或期权。二、原油原油下周OPEC+开会，传闻减产100万桶/日，在没有其它利空消息的情况下（如伊核协议或原油增产等），对油价总有提振作用。一旦减产规模落实，油价恐怕会阶段性见底，那么75美元的油价就是未来一段时间油价的低点，想抄底的朋友要注意了。技术上，75美元就是我此前在100美元油价时，告诉大家的油价调整低点。虽然消息面上还并未完美匹配，但不得不防此处就是油价低点的高概率（假如突发利空消息，那只能重新评估）。因此想抄底油价的朋友们，就需要利用好手头上的工具了，做多期货然后买看跌期权对冲。或者小量金字塔布局远期原油期货。三、黄金影响黄金价格的重要消息在下周的CPI数据上，因此还不好断定金价是否见底。当然，下跌速度在上周帖子里说过，由于俄罗斯的军事动员令，使得军事冲突会加剧，使得金价避险情绪有所提升，跌速也有所收窄，因此下个金价重要节点前，估计金价震荡下行为主，等待下次美联储议息会","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1793a0394f845bbe2600ab19a8ad48","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8225104c7f46cae5f38b84a87455b5aa","width":"2229","height":"1507"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432808ef34ca7a34ab126f4f0f67ea01","width":"2245","height":"1518"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668266997","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668602794,"gmtCreate":1664585703522,"gmtModify":1664585703522,"author":{"id":"3569054309729017","authorId":"3569054309729017","name":"昊天牛牛牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de14a743a6e1264f1c20038c6ce0da1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569054309729017","authorIdStr":"3569054309729017"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668602794","repostId":"1119092920","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119092920","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664579577,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119092920?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-01 07:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克要拜贾跃亭为师，准备造擎天柱了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119092920","media":"Newsweek 网络","summary":"美国东部时间9月30日，$特斯拉$举办的年度AI Day大会中，埃隆·马斯克公布了最新的双足$机器人$原型擎天柱。马斯克对外宣称，“擎天柱”投入生产的时间远远短于市场预期：实现量产也就在2023年。今年4月，马斯克在TED活动中再次提到了“擎天柱”。马斯克曾称“擎天柱”可以用来从事重复性的无聊劳动，比如重物搬运。在马斯克宣布AI日推迟之后，小米抢在8月11日发布了昵称为“铁大”的人形仿生机器人CyberOne。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>地上跑，天上飞，这些项目已经不能满足马斯克了。</p><p>美国东部时间9月30日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>举办的年度AI Day大会中，埃隆·马斯克公布了最新的双足<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>原型擎天柱。在特斯拉公布的参数中，双足机器人可以行走，可以提20公斤的重物，每小时可以走5英里，采用了自动驾驶的技术，可以完成大部分无聊的工作。</p><p>这些好看的参数很显然不是业内吐槽的关键。科技行业关注的点，是马斯克的一以贯之的过度承诺。</p><p>在马斯克眼中，擎天柱就是特斯拉的Next Big Thing，就是特斯拉的第二增长曲线，这条业务线价值将远远超过汽车业务线的价值：对于一度万亿美元市值（特斯拉最新市值为8500亿美元左右）的特斯拉来说，投资者和分析师的兴奋之情自然溢于言表，学习特斯拉的科技企业也纷纷推出自己的机器人计划。</p><p>马斯克对外宣称，“擎天柱”投入生产的时间远远短于市场预期：实现量产也就在2023年。</p><p>马斯克的变形金刚计划会是“火星移民计划”后的又一噱头吗？</p><p><b>1、</b><b><b>PPT造变形金刚</b></b></p><p><b>其实马斯克的“擎天柱计划”在2021年8月就已经公布，该计划在2021年特斯拉AI日压轴登场，向全世界公布特斯拉会推出人形机器人Tesla Bot的消息，并宣称原型机会在2022年问世，2023年量产。</b></p><p>彼时，在没有拿出任何样品和零部件的情况下，马斯克仅靠着几页PPT将这款被命名为“擎天柱（Optimus）”的产品吹得天花乱坠。据他所言，“擎天柱”会拥有和人类尺寸及重量相近的物理特性，未来能帮助人类处理“无聊、重复和危险的工作”。</p><p>华尔街有分析师指出，这一点不禁让人马上联想到贾跃亭的“PPT造车计划”。过去两年，贾跃亭在美国利用 SPAC 的监管空白，靠着一张PPT，在二级市场卷走数十亿美元。现在，SEC都没堵上这个漏洞。</p><p>或许是知道现场媒体会有所质疑，马斯克将特斯拉汽车比喻成“有四个轮子的机器人”，强调机器人所需要的技术，特斯拉早有介入。发布会现场，秉着“只要我不尴尬，尴尬的就是别人”的态度，<b>马斯克请来舞者穿上机器人外观的紧身衣尬舞，彰显“擎天柱”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>灵动。</b></p><p>“制造机器人是比造汽车更重要的业务！”</p><p>甭管外界信不信，马斯克对自己能鼓捣出量产人形机器人深信不疑。据美媒报道，特斯拉近两年放出了多个与“擎天柱”相关的招聘岗位，内部和机器人相关的会议密集程度呈直线上升状态，特斯拉的自动驾驶团队也参与了研发。</p><p>根据特斯拉目前公布的参数，<b>“擎天柱”人形机器人身高约1.73米，体重57千克，AI域采用FSD Computer作为算力核心，配备8个Autopilot Camera作为传感器，这也是特斯拉汽车感知世界的硬件基础。</b>同时，机器人头部配有显示器，便于显示信息，实现交互。“擎天柱”会用轻量材料打造，外观触感光滑，行走时速可以达到5英里/小时。</p><p>今年4月，马斯克在TED活动中再次提到了“擎天柱”。</p><p>马斯克称，人形机器人不仅可以用于家务劳动，还能照顾老人小孩，甚至成为人类的伴侣。马斯克还承诺，“擎天柱”的定价不会高的恐怖，能负担得起的消费者规模并不小，<b>“或许会比一辆车的价格更低”。</b></p><p>8月，马斯克在特斯拉的股东大会上又强调“擎天柱”有着广袤的市场前景，特斯拉可以利用其在人工智能和关键部件方面的专业知识实现大规模开发和生产，机器人比新能源汽车更有价值，会彻底改变人类生活和经济方式。</p><p>据路透社报道，特斯拉已经在德克萨斯州的工厂中生产部署了数千台“擎天柱”原型机，既是测试产品的使用效果，也是在为大规模量产做准备。</p><p>马斯克曾称“擎天柱”可以用来从事重复性的无聊劳动，比如重物搬运。试想一下，<b>特斯拉工厂里的工人们现在可能正目睹着成千台人形机器人担任货物搬运工的场景，</b>不知该说是科技感十足，还是氛围诡异。</p><p>当然，早已经对马斯克炒作能力感到疲倦的外媒还是在质疑Tesla Bot的可行性和实际效果。有专业人士表示，“擎天柱”只有能展现出具备执行多样化非明确指令行为的能力才可以说是取得了初步的成功。</p><p>若仍是设计好的几个简单动作，完成不复杂的互动，这不过是给早就推出的各类人形机器人产品套上了一层新的外衣。除了展览和引流外，很难想象这些推出多年也不温不热的产品还能掀起什么像样的市场需求。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/defe7503d46916f33bd76e006cb30772\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2、</b><b><b>机器人风口来了？</b></b></p><p>人形机器人概念很早就在科幻小说和电影中出现了，但是从概念诞生之日起，<b>大众就对人形机器人就有着担忧和不安，对自己会被取而代之的恐惧。</b></p><p>2016年爆火美剧《西部世界》讲述了一群在游乐园中满足人类杀戮和欲望的人性机器人逐渐唤醒了自主意识和思维，进而觉醒反抗人类的故事。可以说，在人形机器人的研制之路上，除了技术和成本外，伦理也是一项难以解决的问题。</p><p>不可否认，目前科技界已经刮起了一场机器人的春风，但是从经济效益的角度来看，选择人形机器人作为产品发力点并非是明智之举。</p><p>目前，全球范围内最为知名的机器人公司是1992年创立的波士顿动力Atlas。Atlas已经开发出成熟的软硬件系统，其ROS系统基于运动库的调用可以让机器人具有稳定的行走、跑跳、搬运及避障防跌倒能力，同时液压动力的执行器让四肢有着强大的力量。</p><p>由于单一产品的制造成本超过12万美元，Atlas仍处于实验室阶段，没有量产面向市场。此外，或许是为了降成本，或许是为了区分清机器和人的界限，Atlas的机器人产品都保留着原装金属结构外观。</p><p>因此，即将问世的“擎天柱”是否可以在具备基础工作能力的同时，压低成本价格已经让外界充满担忧，更不用说其它更为复杂的互动和功能了。</p><p>但对这位掌握流量密码的世界首富而言，他只想做最能出风头的事情。眼下，在火星生活的故事对大众已经失去了新鲜感和吸引力，人形机器人才有看点。</p><p>但是马斯克已经做出了很多疯狂的事情，哪怕多离谱的概念，他似乎都能鼓捣出东西，很多人仍相信马斯克对未来的判断力，也深信他可以将幻想转为现实。自从马斯克大张旗鼓搞起Tesla Bot之后，行业内跟进的企业也不在少数，这其中最为知名的就是雷军了。</p><p>在马斯克宣布AI日推迟之后，<b>小米抢在8月11日发布了昵称为“</b>铁大<b>”的人形仿生机器人CyberOne。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b380627f685c1e222f9295ac99a3eb9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>与“擎天柱”和人体肌肉接近的流线型概念造型相比，“铁大”四肢的关节相分离，反倒让它看上去没有那么诡异。</p><p>据小米官方介绍，<b>CyberOne的关键技术全部由小米机器人实验室自研完成，支持21个关节自由度</b>。搭载的Mi-Sense深度视觉模组结合AI交互算法使其拥有完整的三维空间感知能力，能够实现人脸、动作、表情识别。在运动上，“铁大”四肢强健，可以实现双足运动姿态平衡。</p><p>雷军在发布会上非常自豪地表示，人形仿生机器人的技术集成度高、难度大，此次发布体现出小米对未来科技生态的探索，也是小米多元融合技术体系的最新成果。只不过，“铁大”每台成本高达六、七十万元，无法实现量产。因此，它还是一款实验室产品，不会推向市场。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/319a6ef2bc01612fe42f38fc356834d7\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3、</b><b><b>擎天柱或只是噱头</b></b></p><p>在发布会上，雷军强调CyberOne每天都在学习新的技能，他相信未来智能机器人一定会走进人们的生活。</p><p>这一番坚定的表态颇有雷军在替马斯克向市场喊话的感觉。当行业大佬们纷纷涌入之后，标杆企业的态度足够掀起不小的市场波澜，无论人形机器人最终能否成功推入“寻常百姓家”，最近几年机器人行业的商业化进程也会被带快，或许新的爆发式增长点就在其中潜藏。</p><p><b>研究机构Marketsandmarkets预测，全球人形机器人市场规模将从2022年的15亿美元提升至2027年的173亿美元。</b></p><p>据业内人士介绍，人形机器人与智能汽车在智能化领域的供应链高度重叠，硬件主要包括伺服电机、减速器、控制器、传感器等，软件包括机器视觉、人机交互、机器学习、系统控制等。</p><p>在近期的券商研报中，多家机构建议在短期内关注人形机器人增量零部件，特别是技术路径有利于小型化、轻量化、低成本的硬件公司，人形机器人三大核心零部件减速器、伺服系统和控制器领域目前都有一些小而美的企业，它们都有机会被“擎天柱”一同带飞。</p><p>回到“擎天柱”本身，即便是多家企业被马斯克成功“带货”入局相关产业链，但是他们从特斯拉方面获取直接收益的可能性也不大。从目前消息看，“擎天柱”更有可能是搬运并整合特斯拉电动车相关的硬件和系统。</p><p>此外，站在经济角度，特斯拉的人形机器人业务在近期也不可能超过汽车。2021年，特斯拉电动车的销售总额高达538.23亿美元。人形机器人若是想追上相等规模，<b>以马斯克曾经暗示过2.5万美元/台的报价计算，“擎天柱”的年度销量至少要达到216万台。</b></p><p>即便是对马斯克能力深信不疑的研究机构，对“擎天柱”销量的乐观预期也就是在5年内达到50万台。</p><p>不过，在资本市场，只要能讲好故事，让投资者看到未来发展的可能性就足够产生立竿见影的效果。今年的美股市场堪称一片哀嚎，相较而言，特斯拉股价下跌22%已算是不错的表现。只是对已经习惯看到特斯拉股价“坐火箭”的市场而言，马斯克是时候拿出新卖点了。</p><p>“擎天柱”现在已经正式亮相，能否达到马斯克所言的“颠覆世界”，时间会给我们答案。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1599017514431","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克要拜贾跃亭为师，准备造擎天柱了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克要拜贾跃亭为师，准备造擎天柱了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-01 07:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/or5-rTonYfG9Ra7SV7bjZQ><strong>Newsweek 网络</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>地上跑，天上飞，这些项目已经不能满足马斯克了。美国东部时间9月30日，特斯拉举办的年度AI Day大会中，埃隆·马斯克公布了最新的双足机器人原型擎天柱。在特斯拉公布的参数中，双足机器人可以行走，可以提20公斤的重物，每小时可以走5英里，采用了自动驾驶的技术，可以完成大部分无聊的工作。这些好看的参数很显然不是业内吐槽的关键。科技行业关注的点，是马斯克的一以贯之的过度承诺。在马斯克眼中，擎天柱就是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/or5-rTonYfG9Ra7SV7bjZQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76a05acbee175d3c8fb34f90e67b893f","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4511":"特斯拉概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/or5-rTonYfG9Ra7SV7bjZQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119092920","content_text":"地上跑，天上飞，这些项目已经不能满足马斯克了。美国东部时间9月30日，特斯拉举办的年度AI Day大会中，埃隆·马斯克公布了最新的双足机器人原型擎天柱。在特斯拉公布的参数中，双足机器人可以行走，可以提20公斤的重物，每小时可以走5英里，采用了自动驾驶的技术，可以完成大部分无聊的工作。这些好看的参数很显然不是业内吐槽的关键。科技行业关注的点，是马斯克的一以贯之的过度承诺。在马斯克眼中，擎天柱就是特斯拉的Next Big Thing，就是特斯拉的第二增长曲线，这条业务线价值将远远超过汽车业务线的价值：对于一度万亿美元市值（特斯拉最新市值为8500亿美元左右）的特斯拉来说，投资者和分析师的兴奋之情自然溢于言表，学习特斯拉的科技企业也纷纷推出自己的机器人计划。马斯克对外宣称，“擎天柱”投入生产的时间远远短于市场预期：实现量产也就在2023年。马斯克的变形金刚计划会是“火星移民计划”后的又一噱头吗？1、PPT造变形金刚其实马斯克的“擎天柱计划”在2021年8月就已经公布，该计划在2021年特斯拉AI日压轴登场，向全世界公布特斯拉会推出人形机器人Tesla Bot的消息，并宣称原型机会在2022年问世，2023年量产。彼时，在没有拿出任何样品和零部件的情况下，马斯克仅靠着几页PPT将这款被命名为“擎天柱（Optimus）”的产品吹得天花乱坠。据他所言，“擎天柱”会拥有和人类尺寸及重量相近的物理特性，未来能帮助人类处理“无聊、重复和危险的工作”。华尔街有分析师指出，这一点不禁让人马上联想到贾跃亭的“PPT造车计划”。过去两年，贾跃亭在美国利用 SPAC 的监管空白，靠着一张PPT，在二级市场卷走数十亿美元。现在，SEC都没堵上这个漏洞。或许是知道现场媒体会有所质疑，马斯克将特斯拉汽车比喻成“有四个轮子的机器人”，强调机器人所需要的技术，特斯拉早有介入。发布会现场，秉着“只要我不尴尬，尴尬的就是别人”的态度，马斯克请来舞者穿上机器人外观的紧身衣尬舞，彰显“擎天柱”的智能灵动。“制造机器人是比造汽车更重要的业务！”甭管外界信不信，马斯克对自己能鼓捣出量产人形机器人深信不疑。据美媒报道，特斯拉近两年放出了多个与“擎天柱”相关的招聘岗位，内部和机器人相关的会议密集程度呈直线上升状态，特斯拉的自动驾驶团队也参与了研发。根据特斯拉目前公布的参数，“擎天柱”人形机器人身高约1.73米，体重57千克，AI域采用FSD Computer作为算力核心，配备8个Autopilot Camera作为传感器，这也是特斯拉汽车感知世界的硬件基础。同时，机器人头部配有显示器，便于显示信息，实现交互。“擎天柱”会用轻量材料打造，外观触感光滑，行走时速可以达到5英里/小时。今年4月，马斯克在TED活动中再次提到了“擎天柱”。马斯克称，人形机器人不仅可以用于家务劳动，还能照顾老人小孩，甚至成为人类的伴侣。马斯克还承诺，“擎天柱”的定价不会高的恐怖，能负担得起的消费者规模并不小，“或许会比一辆车的价格更低”。8月，马斯克在特斯拉的股东大会上又强调“擎天柱”有着广袤的市场前景，特斯拉可以利用其在人工智能和关键部件方面的专业知识实现大规模开发和生产，机器人比新能源汽车更有价值，会彻底改变人类生活和经济方式。据路透社报道，特斯拉已经在德克萨斯州的工厂中生产部署了数千台“擎天柱”原型机，既是测试产品的使用效果，也是在为大规模量产做准备。马斯克曾称“擎天柱”可以用来从事重复性的无聊劳动，比如重物搬运。试想一下，特斯拉工厂里的工人们现在可能正目睹着成千台人形机器人担任货物搬运工的场景，不知该说是科技感十足，还是氛围诡异。当然，早已经对马斯克炒作能力感到疲倦的外媒还是在质疑Tesla Bot的可行性和实际效果。有专业人士表示，“擎天柱”只有能展现出具备执行多样化非明确指令行为的能力才可以说是取得了初步的成功。若仍是设计好的几个简单动作，完成不复杂的互动，这不过是给早就推出的各类人形机器人产品套上了一层新的外衣。除了展览和引流外，很难想象这些推出多年也不温不热的产品还能掀起什么像样的市场需求。2、机器人风口来了？人形机器人概念很早就在科幻小说和电影中出现了，但是从概念诞生之日起，大众就对人形机器人就有着担忧和不安，对自己会被取而代之的恐惧。2016年爆火美剧《西部世界》讲述了一群在游乐园中满足人类杀戮和欲望的人性机器人逐渐唤醒了自主意识和思维，进而觉醒反抗人类的故事。可以说，在人形机器人的研制之路上，除了技术和成本外，伦理也是一项难以解决的问题。不可否认，目前科技界已经刮起了一场机器人的春风，但是从经济效益的角度来看，选择人形机器人作为产品发力点并非是明智之举。目前，全球范围内最为知名的机器人公司是1992年创立的波士顿动力Atlas。Atlas已经开发出成熟的软硬件系统，其ROS系统基于运动库的调用可以让机器人具有稳定的行走、跑跳、搬运及避障防跌倒能力，同时液压动力的执行器让四肢有着强大的力量。由于单一产品的制造成本超过12万美元，Atlas仍处于实验室阶段，没有量产面向市场。此外，或许是为了降成本，或许是为了区分清机器和人的界限，Atlas的机器人产品都保留着原装金属结构外观。因此，即将问世的“擎天柱”是否可以在具备基础工作能力的同时，压低成本价格已经让外界充满担忧，更不用说其它更为复杂的互动和功能了。但对这位掌握流量密码的世界首富而言，他只想做最能出风头的事情。眼下，在火星生活的故事对大众已经失去了新鲜感和吸引力，人形机器人才有看点。但是马斯克已经做出了很多疯狂的事情，哪怕多离谱的概念，他似乎都能鼓捣出东西，很多人仍相信马斯克对未来的判断力，也深信他可以将幻想转为现实。自从马斯克大张旗鼓搞起Tesla Bot之后，行业内跟进的企业也不在少数，这其中最为知名的就是雷军了。在马斯克宣布AI日推迟之后，小米抢在8月11日发布了昵称为“铁大”的人形仿生机器人CyberOne。与“擎天柱”和人体肌肉接近的流线型概念造型相比，“铁大”四肢的关节相分离，反倒让它看上去没有那么诡异。据小米官方介绍，CyberOne的关键技术全部由小米机器人实验室自研完成，支持21个关节自由度。搭载的Mi-Sense深度视觉模组结合AI交互算法使其拥有完整的三维空间感知能力，能够实现人脸、动作、表情识别。在运动上，“铁大”四肢强健，可以实现双足运动姿态平衡。雷军在发布会上非常自豪地表示，人形仿生机器人的技术集成度高、难度大，此次发布体现出小米对未来科技生态的探索，也是小米多元融合技术体系的最新成果。只不过，“铁大”每台成本高达六、七十万元，无法实现量产。因此，它还是一款实验室产品，不会推向市场。3、擎天柱或只是噱头在发布会上，雷军强调CyberOne每天都在学习新的技能，他相信未来智能机器人一定会走进人们的生活。这一番坚定的表态颇有雷军在替马斯克向市场喊话的感觉。当行业大佬们纷纷涌入之后，标杆企业的态度足够掀起不小的市场波澜，无论人形机器人最终能否成功推入“寻常百姓家”，最近几年机器人行业的商业化进程也会被带快，或许新的爆发式增长点就在其中潜藏。研究机构Marketsandmarkets预测，全球人形机器人市场规模将从2022年的15亿美元提升至2027年的173亿美元。据业内人士介绍，人形机器人与智能汽车在智能化领域的供应链高度重叠，硬件主要包括伺服电机、减速器、控制器、传感器等，软件包括机器视觉、人机交互、机器学习、系统控制等。在近期的券商研报中，多家机构建议在短期内关注人形机器人增量零部件，特别是技术路径有利于小型化、轻量化、低成本的硬件公司，人形机器人三大核心零部件减速器、伺服系统和控制器领域目前都有一些小而美的企业，它们都有机会被“擎天柱”一同带飞。回到“擎天柱”本身，即便是多家企业被马斯克成功“带货”入局相关产业链，但是他们从特斯拉方面获取直接收益的可能性也不大。从目前消息看，“擎天柱”更有可能是搬运并整合特斯拉电动车相关的硬件和系统。此外，站在经济角度，特斯拉的人形机器人业务在近期也不可能超过汽车。2021年，特斯拉电动车的销售总额高达538.23亿美元。人形机器人若是想追上相等规模，以马斯克曾经暗示过2.5万美元/台的报价计算，“擎天柱”的年度销量至少要达到216万台。即便是对马斯克能力深信不疑的研究机构，对“擎天柱”销量的乐观预期也就是在5年内达到50万台。不过，在资本市场，只要能讲好故事，让投资者看到未来发展的可能性就足够产生立竿见影的效果。今年的美股市场堪称一片哀嚎，相较而言，特斯拉股价下跌22%已算是不错的表现。只是对已经习惯看到特斯拉股价“坐火箭”的市场而言，马斯克是时候拿出新卖点了。“擎天柱”现在已经正式亮相，能否达到马斯克所言的“颠覆世界”，时间会给我们答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668602629,"gmtCreate":1664585616168,"gmtModify":1664585616168,"author":{"id":"3569054309729017","authorId":"3569054309729017","name":"昊天牛牛牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de14a743a6e1264f1c20038c6ce0da1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569054309729017","authorIdStr":"3569054309729017"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668602629","repostId":"1132038640","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132038640","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663840864,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132038640?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-22 18:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"提醒：国庆、重阳节港股、A股休市安排","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132038640","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国国庆节与重阳节即将到来，港股和A股市场将受到影响。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>尊敬的投资者：</p><p>中国国庆节与重阳节到来，香港市场和A股市场的交易活动将受到影响。请留意股市休市时间，并提前安排好您的投资计划。具体休市安排如下：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34859bcd3aa96e09017a7d9bf33803b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>香港市场将于2022年10月4日（星期二）因重阳节假期休市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d9f458d67a4264998960febec22402\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>港股：</b></p><p>10月4日（周二）休市。10月5日（周三）起照常开市。</p><p><b>A股：</b></p><p>10月3日（周一）至10月7日（周五）休市。10月10日（周一）起照常开市。</p><p><b>沪股通和深股通：</b></p><p>10月3日（周一）至10月7日（周五）关闭。10月10日（周一）起照常开通。</p><p><b>港股通：</b></p><p>9月29日（周四）至10月7日（周五）关闭。10月10日（周一）起照常开通。</p><p><b>美股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</b></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：国庆、重阳节港股、A股休市安排</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：国庆、重阳节港股、A股休市安排\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-22 18:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>尊敬的投资者：</p><p>中国国庆节与重阳节到来，香港市场和A股市场的交易活动将受到影响。请留意股市休市时间，并提前安排好您的投资计划。具体休市安排如下：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34859bcd3aa96e09017a7d9bf33803b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>香港市场将于2022年10月4日（星期二）因重阳节假期休市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d9f458d67a4264998960febec22402\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>港股：</b></p><p>10月4日（周二）休市。10月5日（周三）起照常开市。</p><p><b>A股：</b></p><p>10月3日（周一）至10月7日（周五）休市。10月10日（周一）起照常开市。</p><p><b>沪股通和深股通：</b></p><p>10月3日（周一）至10月7日（周五）关闭。10月10日（周一）起照常开通。</p><p><b>港股通：</b></p><p>9月29日（周四）至10月7日（周五）关闭。10月10日（周一）起照常开通。</p><p><b>美股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</b></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d6748d2cab65706b3d0ac543064a3bd","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132038640","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：中国国庆节与重阳节到来，香港市场和A股市场的交易活动将受到影响。请留意股市休市时间，并提前安排好您的投资计划。具体休市安排如下：香港市场将于2022年10月4日（星期二）因重阳节假期休市。港股：10月4日（周二）休市。10月5日（周三）起照常开市。A股：10月3日（周一）至10月7日（周五）休市。10月10日（周一）起照常开市。沪股通和深股通：10月3日（周一）至10月7日（周五）关闭。10月10日（周一）起照常开通。港股通：9月29日（周四）至10月7日（周五）关闭。10月10日（周一）起照常开通。美股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663820144,"gmtCreate":1663113529489,"gmtModify":1663113530560,"author":{"id":"3569054309729017","authorId":"3569054309729017","name":"昊天牛牛牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de14a743a6e1264f1c20038c6ce0da1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569054309729017","authorIdStr":"3569054309729017"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663820144","repostId":"663147276","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":663147276,"gmtCreate":1663061805495,"gmtModify":1663062433490,"author":{"id":"4118811732193340","authorId":"4118811732193340","name":"新行情","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53982b18bded37810a2a68cf462dc810","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118811732193340","authorIdStr":"4118811732193340"},"themes":[],"title":"知名演员吐槽火了，一瓶饮料竟有232种配料","htmlText":"一款含有红橘、猕猴桃、白萝卜、西红柿、黄瓜、小茴香、红辣椒、花椒等232种配料的气泡水进入公众眼帘。 近日，曾出演过《人民的名义》赵瑞龙一角的演员冯雷发布了一段视频，视频里他称：买了一瓶饮料，发现配料表上竟标注有200多种配料，让人吃惊。 视频显示，该款饮料配料表包含了各种水果、蔬菜甚至香葱、花椒等，配料表占据了大半个瓶身。 关于饮料的口味，冯雷喝过后在视频中给出了答案——像“葡萄汁”。 很快，该视频和饮料引起网友热议。有网友戏称“菜市场和水果批发市场都没这个全。” 据了解，该款气泡水名为“ISDG茉汽 酵素气泡水葡萄味(汽水)”。 一些网店的宣传资料还显示，“232植物酵素是采用日本传统的发酵工艺，添加232种蔬菜水果、谷物、海藻、菌类等原料，经过处理后采用益生菌发酵所得的植物酵素。植物酵素不仅具有植物本身所含的营养精华，还含有益生菌和酶等功效成分，如低聚糖、有机酸、黄酮、皂苷、酚类、萜类、多糖等，对治疗便秘、调节免疫、优化体内环境、调节体内代谢、修复机体损伤都有一定的效果。” 有商家更宣传其可帮助“轻松躺赢好身材”。 引爆舆论后，这款气泡水的出品公司一名工作人员向媒体表示，他们添加的是一种含有232种植物元素的酵素粉，并不是真的添加了232种植物。 至于为何要将酵素粉所包含的232种植物元素都列出来，该工作人员表示，这是技术方面的问题，他也不清楚。其表示，他们的产品不是药品，不含有调节人体的功效，一些网传功效，是酵素本身含有的功效。 “人体每天摄入的食物和饮料不能单独分割开来说某一种益处有多大，更需要的是均衡而全面的饮食搭配。”解放军总医院第三医学中心营养科副主任医师陈巧指出，此类饮品添加的原料并非越多对人体越有益，反而原料越多，导致过敏的因素也会随之增多。 南京医科大学公共卫生学院妇幼营养学教授汪之顼表示，根据已有报道的情况，这款所谓含有几百种蔬菜水果的饮料，堪比“三","listText":"一款含有红橘、猕猴桃、白萝卜、西红柿、黄瓜、小茴香、红辣椒、花椒等232种配料的气泡水进入公众眼帘。 近日，曾出演过《人民的名义》赵瑞龙一角的演员冯雷发布了一段视频，视频里他称：买了一瓶饮料，发现配料表上竟标注有200多种配料，让人吃惊。 视频显示，该款饮料配料表包含了各种水果、蔬菜甚至香葱、花椒等，配料表占据了大半个瓶身。 关于饮料的口味，冯雷喝过后在视频中给出了答案——像“葡萄汁”。 很快，该视频和饮料引起网友热议。有网友戏称“菜市场和水果批发市场都没这个全。” 据了解，该款气泡水名为“ISDG茉汽 酵素气泡水葡萄味(汽水)”。 一些网店的宣传资料还显示，“232植物酵素是采用日本传统的发酵工艺，添加232种蔬菜水果、谷物、海藻、菌类等原料，经过处理后采用益生菌发酵所得的植物酵素。植物酵素不仅具有植物本身所含的营养精华，还含有益生菌和酶等功效成分，如低聚糖、有机酸、黄酮、皂苷、酚类、萜类、多糖等，对治疗便秘、调节免疫、优化体内环境、调节体内代谢、修复机体损伤都有一定的效果。” 有商家更宣传其可帮助“轻松躺赢好身材”。 引爆舆论后，这款气泡水的出品公司一名工作人员向媒体表示，他们添加的是一种含有232种植物元素的酵素粉，并不是真的添加了232种植物。 至于为何要将酵素粉所包含的232种植物元素都列出来，该工作人员表示，这是技术方面的问题，他也不清楚。其表示，他们的产品不是药品，不含有调节人体的功效，一些网传功效，是酵素本身含有的功效。 “人体每天摄入的食物和饮料不能单独分割开来说某一种益处有多大，更需要的是均衡而全面的饮食搭配。”解放军总医院第三医学中心营养科副主任医师陈巧指出，此类饮品添加的原料并非越多对人体越有益，反而原料越多，导致过敏的因素也会随之增多。 南京医科大学公共卫生学院妇幼营养学教授汪之顼表示，根据已有报道的情况，这款所谓含有几百种蔬菜水果的饮料，堪比“三","text":"一款含有红橘、猕猴桃、白萝卜、西红柿、黄瓜、小茴香、红辣椒、花椒等232种配料的气泡水进入公众眼帘。 近日，曾出演过《人民的名义》赵瑞龙一角的演员冯雷发布了一段视频，视频里他称：买了一瓶饮料，发现配料表上竟标注有200多种配料，让人吃惊。 视频显示，该款饮料配料表包含了各种水果、蔬菜甚至香葱、花椒等，配料表占据了大半个瓶身。 关于饮料的口味，冯雷喝过后在视频中给出了答案——像“葡萄汁”。 很快，该视频和饮料引起网友热议。有网友戏称“菜市场和水果批发市场都没这个全。” 据了解，该款气泡水名为“ISDG茉汽 酵素气泡水葡萄味(汽水)”。 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