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艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-18
A股开工大吉,港股跌绿
是资金都跑A股包大红包了吗?可这红包还没飞一会就下去了,A股高开低走。港股跌成翔……小米也高开低走,跌了2.2%
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米集团-W (01810)沪深300 (000300.SH)恒生指数 (HSI)
A股开工大吉,港股跌绿
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-08
立讯精密突然崩盘,咋啦?
$立讯精密(002475)$
立讯精密今天是发生了什么?这个飞刀一刀下去是行权了,还是乌龙指,还是有什么重大利空?立讯精密
立讯精密突然崩盘,咋啦?
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-05
$小米集团-W(01810)$
四曲瀑布屏也没能带你飞[呆住] [呆住]
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-04
打新未中,抄小米咯
心情像过山车,满心期待得心砰砰跳,收到短信就……咔嚓,给激动的情绪按了暂停键。这两天就从期待开始,以失望暂停……真是无情[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] 心通医药-B打新,未中签快手科技打新,未中签阿西吧~[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] 算了,收起哇凉哇凉滴心情!没中签暗盘也没什么搞头,吃不到肉,心通医药-B一上来就在发行价上涨百分之六七十,第一天上市还跌了个稀巴烂,快手一来就整百分之两百,默默走开。姐姐我抄了
$小米集团-W(01810)$
,小米他不香吗?哼╭(╯^╰)╮ 又抄一把
$德琪医药-B(06996)$
A股
$立讯精密(002475)$
实在诱惑,在老公的强烈建议下抄了个老底,好,干了!小米集团-W (01810)德琪医药-B (06996)立讯精密 (002475)
打新未中,抄小米咯
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-04
$快手科技(01024)$
[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] 未中,无情啊
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-03
$快手科技(01024)$
求中签啊,明天来点惊喜,让我开心开心可否?
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-03
$心通医疗-B(02160)$
我的怎么还是待公布呢
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-03
$中手游(00302)$
中手游,加油!起飞🛫
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-03
$心通医疗-B(02160)$
好运呀[梭哈]
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-02
中国宝安,开盘10分钟涨停
$中国宝安(000009)$
中国宝安真的出乎意料,今日高开,并且开盘10分钟被大单给干停了,还没反应过来呢,明天情况走势如何,拭目以待!中国宝安
中国宝安,开盘10分钟涨停
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-01
经历了上周的盘整,今日港股短线机会很多
今日A股和港股都有回升!恒生指数 (HSI)上证指数 (000001.SH)深证成指 (399001)
$中手游(00302)$
中手游今日上涨6.56%,原来系快手概念股,与快手等渠道合作获得机构看好,机构评级目标价4.1。中手游 (00302)
$星盛商业(06668)$
星胜商业今日上涨7.25%星盛商业 (06668)
$京东方精电(00710)$
京东方精电今日上涨12.37%京东方精电 (00710)经历了上周的盘整,今日港股很多机会,医渡科技、中芯国际、荣昌生物-B、德琪医药、锦欣生殖、美团-W。
经历了上周的盘整,今日港股短线机会很多
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-01
中国宝安,本周总能解套了吧?
$中国宝安(000009)$
上周五连跌,曾经因为“深圳40周年”的深圳概念不慎被埋在了下坡途中……不小心被套,然后一路装死,几个月过去了,回看发现装死不行,8.8元的成本何时才能解套呀,还得积极采取行动……[捂脸] [捂脸] 中国宝安上周整周的阴跌,五连跌,我在周三、周四、周五逢低买入,终于将成本从8.8降至了7.47,今日6.88开盘,涨到了7.2了,感觉看到了黎明前的曙光,还差两毛五,本周有望解套吗???[可爱] [可爱] 中国宝安
中国宝安,本周总能解套了吧?
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-02-01
$星盛商业(06668)$
要不要面子了?要面子的快上来
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-01-29
大盘又跌,都影响夫妻感情了
昨天和前天,
$深证成指(399001)$
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
$恒生指数(HSI)$
都报复性下跌恒生指数 (HSI)深证成指 (399001)上证指数 (000001.SH)昨天我老公一下班回来就问,基金卖的怎么样了,赶紧卖……我心想我盈利的已经卖了,只不过留了点底仓了。又不是股灾来了,不想全卖了,留点底还可以观望一下后市。他就一直纠结我怎么不卖,巴拉巴拉巴一堆,说那么多也没啥建设性意见或者讯息给我!整的我心思烦躁!我突然觉得怎么回事,我老公是不是不爱我了?大盘涨势好的时候赚钱,我老公就不问啥也不说啥,就说老婆真厉害!大盘大跌的时候亏钱,我老公就问你投资逻辑是什么,为什么不卖,我……晚上睡觉都不想抱在一起了
大盘又跌,都影响夫妻感情了
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-01-27
大盘又跌了,瑟瑟发抖
A股和港股昨天已经狠狠跌一波,今天又来,大盘又狂跌了,感觉大势不妙啊心疼我的基……不敢加仓呀,走一波盈利的基金再说咯,先落袋为安,再找机会上车年前是一波大盘整的节奏呀深证成指上证指数恒生指数
大盘又跌了,瑟瑟发抖
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-01-26
新股快手太吸金了吧?!
今日
$快手科技(01024)$
申购日,是都跑去快手打新了吗,港股一片绿油油,要是的话这威力也无敌了……恒指都跌了,不过最近涨势有点过头,也是该回调一下了我的神操作:刚上市的
$星盛商业(06668)$
成功被套了,为了快手的筹码只好把潜力股@
$德琪医药-B(06996)$
给出了,非常舍不得出还是出了
新股快手太吸金了吧?!
艾莉娜糍粑
2021-01-26
$星盛商业(06668)$
星盛就这样了?
艾莉娜糍粑
2020-12-24
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@美股解毒师:2020年港股IPO启示录:怎样打新更赚钱?
艾莉娜糍粑
2020-11-08
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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11:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"蚂蚁暂缓上市救了无数股民,从这件事聊聊排雷技巧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159579603","media":"唐书房","summary":"煮熟的鸭子,居然张开翅膀,嘎嘎嘎地飞走了。","content":"<p><b>近日,舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到,监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠,从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里,挽救韭菜无数。</b></p><p>中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还,这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏,似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。</p><p>可以预计,伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点,马云牵着他的蚂蚁,悄悄地就退场了。</p><p>从8月25日递交上市申请,到9月18日获准上市,满打满算也就用了25天(19个工作日),蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO”记录。</p><p>随后便是以153.69倍市盈率的估值定价发行,最终以人民币68.8元/股(港币80元/股)合计发行AH股约38.4亿股,相当于出让了蚂蚁集团12.4%的股份,换来约2650亿,估值超过2.1万亿。</p><p>本来周四就应该上市交易的。可以想象,上市第一天蚂蚁的市值就将超过茅台,成为A股第一巨头,一只巨无霸蚂蚁。</p><p>可惜,马云或许是一时得意忘形,或许是意图利用自己的影响力左右舆论,在10月24日的金融峰会上炮轰监管。</p><p>结果事情峰回路转,煮熟的鸭子,居然张开翅膀,嘎嘎嘎地飞走了<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e0ff27051304fa524aeb148b478c51\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>阿里内部那些正计划怎么花销那1300多亿股权激励的巨富们,一定和杭州的豪宅炒家们一样失落——虽然没有披露享受这1300多亿股权激励的具体人数,但即便按照蚂蚁集团总计约1.7万名员工平摊,人均也超过800万元。</p><p>互联网的舆论热点,集中在监管和创新的冲突问题上,很少有人注意到这件事情背后隐藏的诡异,也很少有人注意到那个给数百万投资者挖好的巨坑。</p><p>我们看到的事情,发生的顺序是这酱紫的:</p><p>①9月18日,蚂蚁获准上市;→②10月24日,马云在外滩金融峰会发表演讲,炮轰银行是当铺思维,巴塞尔协议是老年人俱乐部;→</p><p>③11月2日,人民银行、证监会、银保监会、外管局联合约谈蚂蚁实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明;→</p><p>④11月2日,人民银行和银保监会联合发布《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法(征求意见稿)》(下称《暂行办法》);→</p><p>⑤11月3日,上交所宣布蚂蚁集团暂缓上市;→⑥11月4日,H股冻结资金开始退款;→⑦11月6日,A股中签新股认购款开始退款。</p><p>事情的顺序仿佛是:上市成功,得意忘形,批评监管,遭到报复。</p><p>但是,用马云在外滩金融峰会的演讲内容,对照9天后公开披露的《暂行办法》内容,我们会发现,事情的顺序可能不是表面看上去的样子。</p><p>马云10月24日炮轰的目标,就是11月2日公开的这份《暂行办法》。</p><p>这份《暂行办法》如果最终落实,将对于蚂蚁集团的业务构成重大打击,其核心主要是两条(其他打击还有,只是这两条比较致命):</p><p><b>第十二条:经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍;通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。</b></p><p><b>第十五条第三款:在单笔联合贷款中,经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。</b></p><p>为什么这两条比较致命呢?</p><p>简单的说,蚂蚁的业务,就是利用自己所掌控的大数据,发放小微企业贷款及消费贷。</p><p>目前总规模约2万亿,其中小微企业贷占比约20%,消费贷(我们熟悉的借呗、花呗)占比约80%。</p><p>这两万亿资金从哪里来呢?</p><p>属于蚂蚁集团自有资本金的,大约占比不到2%,其余98%左右的资金主要是两个来源:</p><p>第一,通过联合贷款的方式,利用银行或其他金融机构的资金;</p><p>第二,以资产证券化的方式,上述债权为抵押,发行理财产品、信托产品募集资金。</p><p>在传统的银行放贷活动中,银行收取的利率不会超过7%——以行业翘楚招商银行的2020年半年报数据为例,对公贷款平均利率4.14%,对私贷款平均利率6.1%。</p><p>而蚂蚁集团通过借呗花呗等渠道发放的贷款,可以做到利率15%~24%。</p><p>所以蚂蚁只需要分出不到一半利息收入,就足以让银行掌柜们捧上资金在门口排队叫马爸爸。</p><p>以联合贷款为例,按照蚂蚁IPO文件数据,蚂蚁是以360亿出资,撬动了1.8万亿联合贷款。</p><p>假设我们以15%利率,蚂蚁和出资银行五五分账计算,蚂蚁就是用360亿本金,一年赚18000×7.5%=1350亿利息。</p><p>这样的生意给150倍市盈率可以理解,毕竟投资者可能畅想明年有了1350+360=1710亿本金,或许会赚来几千亿利息,届时估值就不高了。</p><p>资产证券化也是一样。</p><p>蚂蚁放贷100亿,然后用这100亿债权抵押,发行90亿收益率6%的理财产品然后放贷90亿;用这90亿债权抵押,发行81亿收益率6%的理财产品……</p><p>循环滚动,很容易就可以撬动千亿规模,高杠杆之下回报率自然高的吓人。</p><p>然而,监管部门看到的是,如此高的杠杆叠加,一旦底层债权的偿还出现问题(比如你花呗借呗剁手痛快,结果公司裁员,突然失去收入,无力偿还),其连锁反应,就是2008年美国次贷危机的中国版。</p><p>届时曾经吃的脑满肠肥的蚂蚁们,还不是照样两手一摊,要求政府出面救助,否则各大银行真可能会亲自死给人民看,导致整个金融系统瘫痪。</p><p>甚至届时始作俑者轻飘飘地就可以抢占道德制高点:能不能先不急着划分责任,金融体系正在崩溃,人民财富正在灰飞烟灭。让我们携手先拯救国家,拯救人民吧!</p><p>Yes,you can,政府怎么办?《暂行办法》就是来堵这个窟窿的。</p><p>通过非标融资(银行借款、股东借款等)上限不得超过净资产的1倍;通过标准化产品融资(债券、资产证券化等)上限不得超过其净资产的4倍;联合贷款中出资比例不得低于30%——三招全部瞄准着杠杆倍数的七寸。</p><p>最终蚂蚁的贷款规模必须受到蚂蚁自有资金的限制,蚂蚁的业务和利润毫无疑问都将受到巨大打击。</p><p>马云的演讲,炮轰的就是这些“落后的”当铺思维,“僵化的”老年人俱乐部规则。</p><p>创新和监管的边界和关系,话题很深,需要的专业知识超出了老唐的能力范围,留给专家和学者去辩论吧——坦率说,我站在监管一边,但我不敢保证我的看法一定对——我们就看我们能力范围内的事情就好。</p><p>现在,先不论监管和创新谁对谁错。让我们回头想<b>三个简单而可怕的问题</b>:</p><p>①这份《暂行办法》如果实施,对于蚂蚁集团的经营是重大利空,这是无疑的。对不?</p><p>②我们知道,我国相关行业监管文件出台前,都会提前小范围征求业内看法、专家意见,通过征集意见进行讨论和完善。</p><p>这也是马云在《暂行办法》公开披露前,就能够以它为目标开炮的前提条件。</p><p>如果此推论属实,意味着在《暂行办法》发布前,马云及蚂蚁的核心管理层已经知道公司可能会面临巨大利空打击。对吧?</p><p>③接下来的事情,就细思极恐了。马云及蚂蚁管理层怎么处理这可能的利空呢?</p><p>第一是保密——这无可厚非。</p><p>第二是动用一切力量,以创纪录的速度上市,以蚂蚁将继续以过去的模式扩张和获利为假设前提,对企业进行估值,给新股定价。</p><p>他们做到了,他们真的做到了。赶在监管层对社会公开《暂行办法》前,就完成了新股发行。</p><p>甚至我怀疑,原本《暂行办法》计划的公开时间要更晚些。</p><p>只是因为11月4日蚂蚁的新股将上市交易,届时可能就生米熟饭无可挽回了,所以才被迫于11月2日匆忙公开。</p><p>如果这个推论属实,我们隔着屏幕就可以猜出蚂蚁内部会议上的讲话。</p><p>马云先生可能是这样慷慨激昂地发表演说——以下言论,纯属虚构。如有雷同,实属巧合:</p><p><b>兄弟们,加油啊,拼命啊,一定要抢在《暂行办法》公开前,将那些瓜娃子的钱拿到我们手上。</b></p><p><b>否则,一旦他们知道我们以后不可能用以前的方式去赚钱了,他们绝不可能接受按2.1万亿的估值出价!</b></p><p><b>兄弟们,这是生死攸关的时刻,我们必须要发扬红军飞夺泸定桥的精神,与时间赛跑。</b></p><p><b>只要抢在瓜娃子们知道监管规则巨变之前,顺利登陆资本市场,就是蚂蚁人的伟大丰碑,是阿里人的伟大胜利。</b></p><p><b>只要我们登陆成功,各位不仅有机会兑现千亿股权激励,豪宅豪车美女统统滴有、大大滴有。</b></p><p><b>更关键的是,我们将在《暂行办法》出台前获得两千多亿的资本金,从而在未来更严格的资本要求下,取得相对同行的碾压式优势。</b></p><p><b>兄弟们,几千亿面前,睡觉太奢侈了。我要求你们放弃996,直接007。</b></p><p><b>你们每个人的名字,都将在蚂蚁的史册里闪闪发光。兄弟们,你人生里最大的一次历史机遇摆在你的面前了,抓不抓的住猪,就看你的了!</b></p><p>哗哗哗……雷鸣般的掌声持续了6688秒<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00591cd10d29240d23e0e432c72d560e\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>至于上市成功后,监管意见出台,当投资者发现蚂蚁根本不可能再像过去那样,以极少的自有资本去赚取高额利润时,股价暴跌到哪里,那就是瓜娃子股民自己的事情了。</p><p>今天,这种作法不触犯刑法吗?我不懂,但觉着应该有一条法律来界定。</p><p>法律如果不管,我们只能靠自己照顾自己——又想起小时候听老父亲说的那句朴素理解:社会就这样,主义自己拿,这就叫社会主义<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e85624dd67e5295e79dc1f11b317f220\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>这件事带给我的经验就是:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596d782e6ba98a04ba9eb3e4eaa31566\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"635\"></p><p>这不奇怪,早在两年前,有朋友在书房问我为什么投腾讯不投阿里,我当时就是回答“因为不喜欢马云”。</p><p>然后一位朋友在留言区追问为什么,老唐当时回复如下:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8105543100b99f225a8eff55576cbf1\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"776\"></p><p>什么样的道德观、价值观和世界观,决定了不同的人在同样的选择下,会做出的什么选择。</p><p>一家企业管理团队的历史决策所依据的道德观和价值观,绝对是我们排除企业的重要依据之一。</p><p>这或许可能让我们错过牛股,但同样会保护我们避免掉进一些可怕的陷阱。</p><p>由此,老唐又联想到书房里的一个历史案例,同样是用管理层行为排除掉的一个企业。</p><p>上周周记下面,好几位朋友询问上海机场。老唐瞄了眼,有点兴趣——顺带说一句,我今天66.66买了1000股观察仓。</p><p>然后想起三年前曾经点杀过另一间机场:白云机场(链接在此:<b>《岭上白云有疑点(上)》《岭上白云有疑点(下)》,发表于2017年10月21日</b>)</p><p>翻了翻旧文,挺有意思的。</p><p>当时白云机场270亿市值,市场一片看好之声,基本预测2018年净利润在17~20亿之间,年产自由现金25~30亿,2018年之后确定增长,270亿市值“严重低估”。</p><p>老唐当时记录大家看好的理由和预测:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65e6fd10615ee00b05c0f518ca901c5d\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"1034\"></p><p>老唐当时只花了大半天时间阅读财报,我没有去关注它的利润和增长,而是从管理层的一个行为观察,发现事情可能不像大家预想的那么乐观,遂成文泼下两大桶+五小杯冷水。</p><p>其中第一桶冷水,就是通过白云机场发行可转债以及控股股东和管理层对可转债的处理方式,得出大股东和管理层不看好白云机场的未来,认为270亿市值高估的结论。</p><p>详细论证过程,我就不在这里重复了,感兴趣的朋友直接阅读《白云之上有疑点》上下篇即可(向书房发送“机场”即可提取)——特意强调:尤其不要错过留言区。实时记录了当时的市场气氛和多空观点,我觉着比文章本身的价值更大<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e99ba5f192e4e7d8118db610186d0d\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>这个大半天得出的结论,相比那些深入挖掘企业资产负债及利润增长的研究报告,结果如何呢?</p><p>沾时间这把无情刻刀的光,今天我们可以用上帝视角,回看白云机场的经营情况了:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315c1a4d27b85f17a2725ed74d75c80e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"640\"></p><p>疫情冲击下的2020年,咱们排除不看。就看正常经营的2018和2019年。</p><p>2018年不仅没有17~20亿,反而同比下跌约30%,只有11亿——考虑到当时已经是2017年10月底,对2018年的预测偏差,恐怕只能用脱靶二字评价了。</p><p>至于2019年的确定性增长,更是没有看见,净利润进一步下滑至10亿。</p><p>而且还不能推给意外,因为扣非净利润数据趋势是一致的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b21dd1acfdf5aa2d92e75999d7e84efe\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"></p><p>三年后的今天,白云机场市值306亿。也还不错,涨了13%,年化收益率约4%出头,还是比存银行收益高。</p><p>但是,这13%的涨幅,是市盈率从17倍变成30多倍赠送的,企业经营本身是负面贡献。</p><p>上述两个例子,就是老唐今天想说的:通过观察核心股东或管理层的行为,可以让我们规避一些投资道路上的陷阱。</p><p>当然,必须要强调的是:以管理层的表现作为排除企业的依据,只是意味着你躲开了某些心生邪念的管理层,被算计的概率<b>大大降低</b>。</p><p>但,它并不意味着这些管理层掌控的公司股票不会上涨。</p><p>最有说服的反例恐怕就是:老唐通过此秘方,成功地躲开了泸州老窖这只7年14倍的大牛股<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8adf2281fb5c60ac1b1450cec584d4\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p>","source":"lsy1604720364158","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蚂蚁暂缓上市救了无数股民,从这件事聊聊排雷技巧</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蚂蚁暂缓上市救了无数股民,从这件事聊聊排雷技巧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-07 11:42 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ><strong>唐书房</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日,舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到,监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠,从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里,挽救韭菜无数。中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还,这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏,似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。可以预计,伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点,马云牵着他的蚂蚁,悄悄地就退场了。从8月25日递交上市申请,到9月18日获准上市,满打满算也就用了25天(19个工作日),蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92890b55f8b70709c23ff81ddac0242d","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159579603","content_text":"近日,舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到,监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠,从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里,挽救韭菜无数。中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还,这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏,似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。可以预计,伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点,马云牵着他的蚂蚁,悄悄地就退场了。从8月25日递交上市申请,到9月18日获准上市,满打满算也就用了25天(19个工作日),蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO”记录。随后便是以153.69倍市盈率的估值定价发行,最终以人民币68.8元/股(港币80元/股)合计发行AH股约38.4亿股,相当于出让了蚂蚁集团12.4%的股份,换来约2650亿,估值超过2.1万亿。本来周四就应该上市交易的。可以想象,上市第一天蚂蚁的市值就将超过茅台,成为A股第一巨头,一只巨无霸蚂蚁。可惜,马云或许是一时得意忘形,或许是意图利用自己的影响力左右舆论,在10月24日的金融峰会上炮轰监管。结果事情峰回路转,煮熟的鸭子,居然张开翅膀,嘎嘎嘎地飞走了阿里内部那些正计划怎么花销那1300多亿股权激励的巨富们,一定和杭州的豪宅炒家们一样失落——虽然没有披露享受这1300多亿股权激励的具体人数,但即便按照蚂蚁集团总计约1.7万名员工平摊,人均也超过800万元。互联网的舆论热点,集中在监管和创新的冲突问题上,很少有人注意到这件事情背后隐藏的诡异,也很少有人注意到那个给数百万投资者挖好的巨坑。我们看到的事情,发生的顺序是这酱紫的:①9月18日,蚂蚁获准上市;→②10月24日,马云在外滩金融峰会发表演讲,炮轰银行是当铺思维,巴塞尔协议是老年人俱乐部;→③11月2日,人民银行、证监会、银保监会、外管局联合约谈蚂蚁实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明;→④11月2日,人民银行和银保监会联合发布《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法(征求意见稿)》(下称《暂行办法》);→⑤11月3日,上交所宣布蚂蚁集团暂缓上市;→⑥11月4日,H股冻结资金开始退款;→⑦11月6日,A股中签新股认购款开始退款。事情的顺序仿佛是:上市成功,得意忘形,批评监管,遭到报复。但是,用马云在外滩金融峰会的演讲内容,对照9天后公开披露的《暂行办法》内容,我们会发现,事情的顺序可能不是表面看上去的样子。马云10月24日炮轰的目标,就是11月2日公开的这份《暂行办法》。这份《暂行办法》如果最终落实,将对于蚂蚁集团的业务构成重大打击,其核心主要是两条(其他打击还有,只是这两条比较致命):第十二条:经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍;通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。第十五条第三款:在单笔联合贷款中,经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。为什么这两条比较致命呢?简单的说,蚂蚁的业务,就是利用自己所掌控的大数据,发放小微企业贷款及消费贷。目前总规模约2万亿,其中小微企业贷占比约20%,消费贷(我们熟悉的借呗、花呗)占比约80%。这两万亿资金从哪里来呢?属于蚂蚁集团自有资本金的,大约占比不到2%,其余98%左右的资金主要是两个来源:第一,通过联合贷款的方式,利用银行或其他金融机构的资金;第二,以资产证券化的方式,上述债权为抵押,发行理财产品、信托产品募集资金。在传统的银行放贷活动中,银行收取的利率不会超过7%——以行业翘楚招商银行的2020年半年报数据为例,对公贷款平均利率4.14%,对私贷款平均利率6.1%。而蚂蚁集团通过借呗花呗等渠道发放的贷款,可以做到利率15%~24%。所以蚂蚁只需要分出不到一半利息收入,就足以让银行掌柜们捧上资金在门口排队叫马爸爸。以联合贷款为例,按照蚂蚁IPO文件数据,蚂蚁是以360亿出资,撬动了1.8万亿联合贷款。假设我们以15%利率,蚂蚁和出资银行五五分账计算,蚂蚁就是用360亿本金,一年赚18000×7.5%=1350亿利息。这样的生意给150倍市盈率可以理解,毕竟投资者可能畅想明年有了1350+360=1710亿本金,或许会赚来几千亿利息,届时估值就不高了。资产证券化也是一样。蚂蚁放贷100亿,然后用这100亿债权抵押,发行90亿收益率6%的理财产品然后放贷90亿;用这90亿债权抵押,发行81亿收益率6%的理财产品……循环滚动,很容易就可以撬动千亿规模,高杠杆之下回报率自然高的吓人。然而,监管部门看到的是,如此高的杠杆叠加,一旦底层债权的偿还出现问题(比如你花呗借呗剁手痛快,结果公司裁员,突然失去收入,无力偿还),其连锁反应,就是2008年美国次贷危机的中国版。届时曾经吃的脑满肠肥的蚂蚁们,还不是照样两手一摊,要求政府出面救助,否则各大银行真可能会亲自死给人民看,导致整个金融系统瘫痪。甚至届时始作俑者轻飘飘地就可以抢占道德制高点:能不能先不急着划分责任,金融体系正在崩溃,人民财富正在灰飞烟灭。让我们携手先拯救国家,拯救人民吧!Yes,you can,政府怎么办?《暂行办法》就是来堵这个窟窿的。通过非标融资(银行借款、股东借款等)上限不得超过净资产的1倍;通过标准化产品融资(债券、资产证券化等)上限不得超过其净资产的4倍;联合贷款中出资比例不得低于30%——三招全部瞄准着杠杆倍数的七寸。最终蚂蚁的贷款规模必须受到蚂蚁自有资金的限制,蚂蚁的业务和利润毫无疑问都将受到巨大打击。马云的演讲,炮轰的就是这些“落后的”当铺思维,“僵化的”老年人俱乐部规则。创新和监管的边界和关系,话题很深,需要的专业知识超出了老唐的能力范围,留给专家和学者去辩论吧——坦率说,我站在监管一边,但我不敢保证我的看法一定对——我们就看我们能力范围内的事情就好。现在,先不论监管和创新谁对谁错。让我们回头想三个简单而可怕的问题:①这份《暂行办法》如果实施,对于蚂蚁集团的经营是重大利空,这是无疑的。对不?②我们知道,我国相关行业监管文件出台前,都会提前小范围征求业内看法、专家意见,通过征集意见进行讨论和完善。这也是马云在《暂行办法》公开披露前,就能够以它为目标开炮的前提条件。如果此推论属实,意味着在《暂行办法》发布前,马云及蚂蚁的核心管理层已经知道公司可能会面临巨大利空打击。对吧?③接下来的事情,就细思极恐了。马云及蚂蚁管理层怎么处理这可能的利空呢?第一是保密——这无可厚非。第二是动用一切力量,以创纪录的速度上市,以蚂蚁将继续以过去的模式扩张和获利为假设前提,对企业进行估值,给新股定价。他们做到了,他们真的做到了。赶在监管层对社会公开《暂行办法》前,就完成了新股发行。甚至我怀疑,原本《暂行办法》计划的公开时间要更晚些。只是因为11月4日蚂蚁的新股将上市交易,届时可能就生米熟饭无可挽回了,所以才被迫于11月2日匆忙公开。如果这个推论属实,我们隔着屏幕就可以猜出蚂蚁内部会议上的讲话。马云先生可能是这样慷慨激昂地发表演说——以下言论,纯属虚构。如有雷同,实属巧合:兄弟们,加油啊,拼命啊,一定要抢在《暂行办法》公开前,将那些瓜娃子的钱拿到我们手上。否则,一旦他们知道我们以后不可能用以前的方式去赚钱了,他们绝不可能接受按2.1万亿的估值出价!兄弟们,这是生死攸关的时刻,我们必须要发扬红军飞夺泸定桥的精神,与时间赛跑。只要抢在瓜娃子们知道监管规则巨变之前,顺利登陆资本市场,就是蚂蚁人的伟大丰碑,是阿里人的伟大胜利。只要我们登陆成功,各位不仅有机会兑现千亿股权激励,豪宅豪车美女统统滴有、大大滴有。更关键的是,我们将在《暂行办法》出台前获得两千多亿的资本金,从而在未来更严格的资本要求下,取得相对同行的碾压式优势。兄弟们,几千亿面前,睡觉太奢侈了。我要求你们放弃996,直接007。你们每个人的名字,都将在蚂蚁的史册里闪闪发光。兄弟们,你人生里最大的一次历史机遇摆在你的面前了,抓不抓的住猪,就看你的了!哗哗哗……雷鸣般的掌声持续了6688秒至于上市成功后,监管意见出台,当投资者发现蚂蚁根本不可能再像过去那样,以极少的自有资本去赚取高额利润时,股价暴跌到哪里,那就是瓜娃子股民自己的事情了。今天,这种作法不触犯刑法吗?我不懂,但觉着应该有一条法律来界定。法律如果不管,我们只能靠自己照顾自己——又想起小时候听老父亲说的那句朴素理解:社会就这样,主义自己拿,这就叫社会主义这件事带给我的经验就是:这不奇怪,早在两年前,有朋友在书房问我为什么投腾讯不投阿里,我当时就是回答“因为不喜欢马云”。然后一位朋友在留言区追问为什么,老唐当时回复如下:什么样的道德观、价值观和世界观,决定了不同的人在同样的选择下,会做出的什么选择。一家企业管理团队的历史决策所依据的道德观和价值观,绝对是我们排除企业的重要依据之一。这或许可能让我们错过牛股,但同样会保护我们避免掉进一些可怕的陷阱。由此,老唐又联想到书房里的一个历史案例,同样是用管理层行为排除掉的一个企业。上周周记下面,好几位朋友询问上海机场。老唐瞄了眼,有点兴趣——顺带说一句,我今天66.66买了1000股观察仓。然后想起三年前曾经点杀过另一间机场:白云机场(链接在此:《岭上白云有疑点(上)》《岭上白云有疑点(下)》,发表于2017年10月21日)翻了翻旧文,挺有意思的。当时白云机场270亿市值,市场一片看好之声,基本预测2018年净利润在17~20亿之间,年产自由现金25~30亿,2018年之后确定增长,270亿市值“严重低估”。老唐当时记录大家看好的理由和预测:老唐当时只花了大半天时间阅读财报,我没有去关注它的利润和增长,而是从管理层的一个行为观察,发现事情可能不像大家预想的那么乐观,遂成文泼下两大桶+五小杯冷水。其中第一桶冷水,就是通过白云机场发行可转债以及控股股东和管理层对可转债的处理方式,得出大股东和管理层不看好白云机场的未来,认为270亿市值高估的结论。详细论证过程,我就不在这里重复了,感兴趣的朋友直接阅读《白云之上有疑点》上下篇即可(向书房发送“机场”即可提取)——特意强调:尤其不要错过留言区。实时记录了当时的市场气氛和多空观点,我觉着比文章本身的价值更大这个大半天得出的结论,相比那些深入挖掘企业资产负债及利润增长的研究报告,结果如何呢?沾时间这把无情刻刀的光,今天我们可以用上帝视角,回看白云机场的经营情况了:疫情冲击下的2020年,咱们排除不看。就看正常经营的2018和2019年。2018年不仅没有17~20亿,反而同比下跌约30%,只有11亿——考虑到当时已经是2017年10月底,对2018年的预测偏差,恐怕只能用脱靶二字评价了。至于2019年的确定性增长,更是没有看见,净利润进一步下滑至10亿。而且还不能推给意外,因为扣非净利润数据趋势是一致的。三年后的今天,白云机场市值306亿。也还不错,涨了13%,年化收益率约4%出头,还是比存银行收益高。但是,这13%的涨幅,是市盈率从17倍变成30多倍赠送的,企业经营本身是负面贡献。上述两个例子,就是老唐今天想说的:通过观察核心股东或管理层的行为,可以让我们规避一些投资道路上的陷阱。当然,必须要强调的是:以管理层的表现作为排除企业的依据,只是意味着你躲开了某些心生邪念的管理层,被算计的概率大大降低。但,它并不意味着这些管理层掌控的公司股票不会上涨。最有说服的反例恐怕就是:老唐通过此秘方,成功地躲开了泸州老窖这只7年14倍的大牛股","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384373365,"gmtCreate":1613619921557,"gmtModify":1613620014442,"author":{"id":"3567735562545432","authorId":"3567735562545432","name":"艾莉娜糍粑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c773fe18a5e1c108139da86482b0db4d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567735562545432","idStr":"3567735562545432"},"themes":[],"title":"A股开工大吉,港股跌绿","htmlText":"是资金都跑A股包大红包了吗?可这红包还没飞一会就下去了,A股高开低走。港股跌成翔……小米也高开低走,跌了2.2% <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 小米集团-W (01810)沪深300 (000300.SH)恒生指数 (HSI)","listText":"是资金都跑A股包大红包了吗?可这红包还没飞一会就下去了,A股高开低走。港股跌成翔……小米也高开低走,跌了2.2% <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 小米集团-W (01810)沪深300 (000300.SH)恒生指数 (HSI)","text":"是资金都跑A股包大红包了吗?可这红包还没飞一会就下去了,A股高开低走。港股跌成翔……小米也高开低走,跌了2.2% $小米集团-W(01810)$ 小米集团-W (01810)沪深300 (000300.SH)恒生指数 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">$中手游(00302)$</a>中手游,加油!起飞🛫","text":"$中手游(00302)$中手游,加油!起飞🛫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314126313","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315810418,"gmtCreate":1612230312134,"gmtModify":1703759050995,"author":{"id":"3567735562545432","authorId":"3567735562545432","name":"艾莉娜糍粑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c773fe18a5e1c108139da86482b0db4d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567735562545432","idStr":"3567735562545432"},"themes":[],"title":"中国宝安,开盘10分钟涨停","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000009\">$中国宝安(000009)$</a> 中国宝安真的出乎意料,今日高开,并且开盘10分钟被大单给干停了,还没反应过来呢,明天情况走势如何,拭目以待!中国宝安","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000009\">$中国宝安(000009)$</a> 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中国宝安真的出乎意料,今日高开,并且开盘10分钟被大单给干停了,还没反应过来呢,明天情况走势如何,拭目以待!中国宝安","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41499a7beff28bb895847306f44aa2a7","width":"560","height":"360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315810418","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339189319,"gmtCreate":1608793398531,"gmtModify":1703736797770,"author":{"id":"3567735562545432","authorId":"3567735562545432","name":"艾莉娜糍粑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c773fe18a5e1c108139da86482b0db4d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567735562545432","idStr":"3567735562545432"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339189319","repostId":"397228462","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":397228462,"gmtCreate":1608280120549,"gmtModify":1703852203094,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440721572920950","idStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"2020年港股IPO启示录:怎样打新更赚钱?","htmlText":"2020年即将落下帷幕,回顾这一年,IPO发行数量受疫情影响大幅萎缩,但打新热情空前高涨,超额认购超千倍已成家常便饭,“抢额度”成为打新族挥之不去的痛! 投资者的疯狂让上市公司奇货可居,发行估值水涨船高,百倍PE已屡见不鲜,愤怒的投资者也只能抱怨一句“不讲武德”! 但骂归骂、闹归闹,打新依然是绝佳的投资策略。截止12月17日,新股首日破发概率只有34%。 赚了钱,什么都好说,但复盘2020年热闹非凡的IPO市场,在数据表现上,既有“一切正如我所料”,又有“出乎预料”,投资中的顺人性和逆人性现象皆有,投资者又到底该信奉什么? 带着问题,我们从10个角度对2020年的港股IPO进行了总结,希望能为投资者呈现一份打新秘籍——怎样打新更赚钱? 1.疫情之年,IPO数量锐减! 最近3年,港股IPO数量分别为204、164和137家,受到疫情影响,今年的打新机会比往年少了一些。 2.七月IPO最旺,八月最冷清! 港股IPO在月度数量上有明显差异,其中,1月、7月、10月、11月和12月为旺季,而4月和8月是机会最少的月份。 2020年由于疫情影响,2月上市数量只有2家,为全年最惨淡月份。 3.募资额越大,中签率越高? 2020年,年度募资TOP5,前两家被京东包揽,刘强东可谓是今年港股IPO市场最大的赢家。 将募资前5名新股和募资额最少的5支新股进行对比,相对来说,募资额较大的股票一手中签率更高! 这与投资者的常识相符,毕竟蛋糕大了,就可以分给更多的人。 4.超额认购倍数越高,首日上涨概率越大? 2020年投资者打新热情空前高涨,年内有9支新股超额认购倍数超过1000倍,年度超购王是物业股烨星集团,超购倍数1949倍! 2018年,超额认购超千倍的共有6支,2019年只有1支,2020年的疯狂可见一斑。 根据统计,2020年超额认购TOP10的新股,其首日上涨的概率为90%!其中,涨幅","listText":"2020年即将落下帷幕,回顾这一年,IPO发行数量受疫情影响大幅萎缩,但打新热情空前高涨,超额认购超千倍已成家常便饭,“抢额度”成为打新族挥之不去的痛! 投资者的疯狂让上市公司奇货可居,发行估值水涨船高,百倍PE已屡见不鲜,愤怒的投资者也只能抱怨一句“不讲武德”! 但骂归骂、闹归闹,打新依然是绝佳的投资策略。截止12月17日,新股首日破发概率只有34%。 赚了钱,什么都好说,但复盘2020年热闹非凡的IPO市场,在数据表现上,既有“一切正如我所料”,又有“出乎预料”,投资中的顺人性和逆人性现象皆有,投资者又到底该信奉什么? 带着问题,我们从10个角度对2020年的港股IPO进行了总结,希望能为投资者呈现一份打新秘籍——怎样打新更赚钱? 1.疫情之年,IPO数量锐减! 最近3年,港股IPO数量分别为204、164和137家,受到疫情影响,今年的打新机会比往年少了一些。 2.七月IPO最旺,八月最冷清! 港股IPO在月度数量上有明显差异,其中,1月、7月、10月、11月和12月为旺季,而4月和8月是机会最少的月份。 2020年由于疫情影响,2月上市数量只有2家,为全年最惨淡月份。 3.募资额越大,中签率越高? 2020年,年度募资TOP5,前两家被京东包揽,刘强东可谓是今年港股IPO市场最大的赢家。 将募资前5名新股和募资额最少的5支新股进行对比,相对来说,募资额较大的股票一手中签率更高! 这与投资者的常识相符,毕竟蛋糕大了,就可以分给更多的人。 4.超额认购倍数越高,首日上涨概率越大? 2020年投资者打新热情空前高涨,年内有9支新股超额认购倍数超过1000倍,年度超购王是物业股烨星集团,超购倍数1949倍! 2018年,超额认购超千倍的共有6支,2019年只有1支,2020年的疯狂可见一斑。 根据统计,2020年超额认购TOP10的新股,其首日上涨的概率为90%!其中,涨幅","text":"2020年即将落下帷幕,回顾这一年,IPO发行数量受疫情影响大幅萎缩,但打新热情空前高涨,超额认购超千倍已成家常便饭,“抢额度”成为打新族挥之不去的痛! 投资者的疯狂让上市公司奇货可居,发行估值水涨船高,百倍PE已屡见不鲜,愤怒的投资者也只能抱怨一句“不讲武德”! 但骂归骂、闹归闹,打新依然是绝佳的投资策略。截止12月17日,新股首日破发概率只有34%。 赚了钱,什么都好说,但复盘2020年热闹非凡的IPO市场,在数据表现上,既有“一切正如我所料”,又有“出乎预料”,投资中的顺人性和逆人性现象皆有,投资者又到底该信奉什么? 带着问题,我们从10个角度对2020年的港股IPO进行了总结,希望能为投资者呈现一份打新秘籍——怎样打新更赚钱? 1.疫情之年,IPO数量锐减! 最近3年,港股IPO数量分别为204、164和137家,受到疫情影响,今年的打新机会比往年少了一些。 2.七月IPO最旺,八月最冷清! 港股IPO在月度数量上有明显差异,其中,1月、7月、10月、11月和12月为旺季,而4月和8月是机会最少的月份。 2020年由于疫情影响,2月上市数量只有2家,为全年最惨淡月份。 3.募资额越大,中签率越高? 2020年,年度募资TOP5,前两家被京东包揽,刘强东可谓是今年港股IPO市场最大的赢家。 将募资前5名新股和募资额最少的5支新股进行对比,相对来说,募资额较大的股票一手中签率更高! 这与投资者的常识相符,毕竟蛋糕大了,就可以分给更多的人。 4.超额认购倍数越高,首日上涨概率越大? 2020年投资者打新热情空前高涨,年内有9支新股超额认购倍数超过1000倍,年度超购王是物业股烨星集团,超购倍数1949倍! 2018年,超额认购超千倍的共有6支,2019年只有1支,2020年的疯狂可见一斑。 根据统计,2020年超额认购TOP10的新股,其首日上涨的概率为90%!其中,涨幅","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc3414b558dca71a76ff93d1f9f70dd","width":"840","height":"450"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11fa54eb7250931a7364b5b1876a89c","width":"772","height":"240"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b61b4cf4f9a1552ae78d4dcdb09502","width":"777","height":"447"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397228462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}