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Palantir: Buy The Dip
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","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325632287","repostId":"1134955391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387513635,"gmtCreate":1613753852427,"gmtModify":1634552339803,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387513635","repostId":"1100960455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100960455","pubTimestamp":1613717993,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100960455?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 14:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Buy The Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100960455","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disapp","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.</li>\n <li>Palantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.</li>\n <li>Palantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.</li>\n <li>Palantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!</li>\n</ul>\n<p>One of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.</p>\n<p><b>Who Are They?</b></p>\n<p>If you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.</p>\n<p>Palantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.</p>\n<p>The company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.</p>\n<p>Pretty cool hey?</p>\n<p><b>What Is Driving The Company?</b></p>\n<p>Revenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2926257ca97794e55159ce8c6021a745\" tg-width=\"2978\" tg-height=\"992\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TIKR.com)</p>\n<p>The shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.</p>\n<p>Data has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.</p>\n<p>Some of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9284f5fd3e26d0c55fcd9b2f6355371e\" tg-width=\"1752\" tg-height=\"983\"></p>\n<p>(Company Presentation)</p>\n<p>So all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>What Are The Risks?</b></p>\n<p>One of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.</p>\n<p>Something to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.</p>\n<p>That said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.</p>\n<p><b>What's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?</b></p>\n<p>The one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n</blockquote>\n<p>What is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.</p>\n<p>So what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n</blockquote>\n<p>It means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.</p>\n<p>Where are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.</p>\n<p><b>What Does The Price Say?</b></p>\n<p>Taking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b568bf73db2c1b38aaa1546a10427dc\" tg-width=\"3837\" tg-height=\"1813\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TC2000.com)</p>\n<p>When a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3505c465c407b7387cbedf16a1b233\" tg-width=\"3840\" tg-height=\"1808\"></p>\n<p>(Source: TC2000.com)</p>\n<p>When trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.</p>\n<p><b>Wrap-Up</b></p>\n<p>As you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Buy The Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Buy The Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-19 14:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100960455","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\nPalantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.\nPalantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!\n\nOne of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.\nWho Are They?\nIf you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.\nPalantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.\nThe company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.\nPretty cool hey?\nWhat Is Driving The Company?\nRevenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.\n\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThe shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.\nData has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.\nSome of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.\n\n(Company Presentation)\nSo all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.\nWhat Are The Risks?\nOne of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.\nSomething to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.\nThat said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.\nWhat's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?\nThe one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.\n\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n\nWhat is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.\nSo what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:\n\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n\nIt means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.\nWhere are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.\nWhat Does The Price Say?\nTaking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.\nWrap-Up\nAs you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":877096580,"gmtCreate":1637836444480,"gmtModify":1637836444561,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877096580","repostId":"1105943125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105943125","pubTimestamp":1637829564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105943125?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-25 16:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Only Berkshire Hathaway Had Listened To Us, And Why It's Time To Exit Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105943125","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOur original recommendation for Berkshire Hathaway to buy Apple was predicated partially on","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Our original recommendation for Berkshire Hathaway to buy Apple was predicated partially on our opinion that the company was undervalued.</li>\n <li>At this point, even with the tax expenses of selling, we feel the valuation has hit a point where Berkshire Hathaway should be selling.</li>\n <li>Berkshire Hathaway has a cash problem that's not to be trivialized, however, that doesn't justify holding onto overvalued assets.</li>\n <li>The company can use its cash to make significant additional investments in other businesses where it's growing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Just over three years ago, we wrote an article discussing how Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B)should utilize its massive cash pile to acquire Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). As we'll see throughout this article, while that trade would have panned out well, it's time for Berkshire Hathaway to exit its massive Apple investment.</p>\n<p>The Acquisition</p>\n<p>Our original recommendation for the acquisition price with premium was a $1.23 trillion acquisition. Since then, Apple's market capitalization has more than doubled to $2.6 trillion. That's on the basis of substantial strength during COVID-19, where the company's FCF went from almost $65 billion to more than $90 billion.</p>\n<p>New product lines for the business are growing well and it can be expected to continue growing going forward. Our pessimistic acquisition time assumption was Apple's FCF would stay constant at $65 billion while debt was paid out, however, this new FCF would have helped greatly accelerate the debt pay down for the company.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway's market capitalization, with the expansion in value, would be 3x as large. The company would have $865 billion in debt and have earned almost $150 billion in FCF in the most recent year. The giant would be a valuable long-term investment.</p>\n<p>Apple Buffett Investment</p>\n<p>Apple's Buffett investment has been arguably the best investment he's ever made.</p>\n<p>Warren Buffett's Apple investment has cost him roughly $40 billion. As Apple hits all-time highs, the most recent valuation of Apple's stake is almost $150 billion, implying paper profits of more than $100 billion. The peak capital gains tax rate is roughly 20%, implying ~$22 billion in taxes for the profits that the portfolio has seen so far.</p>\n<p>That means that if he were to sell the investment, he'd turn $40 billion of cash into $125 billion of cash. That'd take Berkshire Hathaway's total cash position to roughly $260 billion.</p>\n<p>Apple Valuation</p>\n<p>Our thesis for selling Apple is based on the company's recent massive multiple expansion.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5459716333b52cbca613111fcee56e\" tg-width=\"1844\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple P/E Ratio - MacroTrends</span></p>\n<p>A significant part of Apple's returns over the past five years have been the company's massive multiple expansion. The company's PE ratio has gone from just over 10 to almost 30. That 3x expansion means that the company's PE yield is just over 3%. It's worth noting it's been expanding EPS and aggressively buying back shares supporting EPS.</p>\n<p>However, the takeaway here is that multiple expansion can't be expected to continue forever and the law of large numbers exists. That means that Apple's upcoming five-year returns can be expected to not match with the past five-year returns. As Apple becomes bigger and bigger, it becomes more and more a vehicle for the S&P 500 with individual company risk.</p>\n<p>Our Recommendation</p>\n<p>Our recommendation is that Berkshire Hathaway should sell Apple. For normal investors who hold Apple in their individual portfolios, we recommend the same. The reason is threefold.</p>\n<p>1. Apple's size means that continuing to provide market-beating returns is unlikely.</p>\n<p>2. The company's majority of share price performance has been multiple expansion, which can't be guaranteed to continue.</p>\n<p>3. Apple has enjoyed a peer-leading industry position, however, historically in tech, that's extremely difficult to maintain.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway will be left with a massive pile of cash and there are several ways we can see the company deploying it. For note, that $260 billion initial post tax cash will be almost half of its market capitalization. In our view, we can see several different ways that the company can utilize this cash to maximize shareholder rewards.</p>\n<p>1. Simply invest in the S&P 500. It has a 0.7% higher dividend yield than Apple meaning rolling the $150 billion cash into that would add more than $1 billion in additional dividend for the company. Berkshire Hathaway has discussed how beating the S&P 500 is difficult, and this is a simple solution to a complex problem.</p>\n<p>2. Buybacks. The remainder of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio is incredibly strong and generates massive FCF. The company has been buying back stock to the tune of roughly $20 billion annualized. It can accelerate that, enabling the value in the rest of its portfolio to be much more magnified. Buying back a significant amount at market value is tough, but it could buy back a reasonable amount.</p>\n<p>3. Acquisitions. There are a few industries that Berkshire Hathaway has been willing to touch in the existing market. Energy,such as the recent almost $10 billion Dominion acquisition, has been one of them. There's plenty of larger companies in the energy markets, and Berkshire Hathaway could make a stab for a larger one towards a $100 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Any of these paths, or some combination, in our opinion, could help Berkshire Hathaway drive more substantial shareholder rewards.</p>\n<p>Why Discuss</p>\n<p>A classic question for all Seeking Alpha articles, but why are we discussing Berkshire Hathaway portfolio recommendations with you? What's the actionable advice?</p>\n<p>The first is that we believe, for the same reasons, Apple investors should sell their current investments in Apple. The company is a great company, no doubt about it, however, that doesn't make it a great investment, especially at the current valuation. The law of large numbers limits upside, but as an individual company, there's still substantial downside.</p>\n<p>The second is that Berkshire Hathaway investors should pay close attention to how the company treats its Apple stake as well. The investment now makes up almost 25% of the company's portfolio. That means leaving it invested in Apple, which we expect will underperform, can present a drag on the rest of the company's portfolio and hurt its value as an investment.</p>\n<p>All of this, and what happens with the remainder of the company's cash position, is something we recommend investors pay close attention to.</p>\n<p>Thesis Risk</p>\n<p>The risk to our thesis is that Apple is focused on consistent growth and the company has performed well recently. That's especially true given new projects Apple is focused on,like recent news about the Apple Car. There's a chance, with a limit of the law of large numbers, Apple can for at least some period of time continue outperforming the market.</p>\n<p>It's also worth noting that Berkshire Hathaway will need to, because of the 20% tax rate, find a way to reinvest at slightly higher returns.</p>\n<p>Conclusion</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway's massive Apple investment is now almost 25% of its valuation as a company. Even by historical norms with other companies, that's incredibly high in a single business. That single business has seen those returns primarily through multiple expansion (at the P/E of 10, the $40 billion investment would be $50 billion versus $150 billion).</p>\n<p>Our view is that Berkshire Hathaway should eat the tax expense and grab the cash. In our view, there are numerous things the company can do over the coming years to achieve higher returns than its Apple investment would. Whether the company does those things is important because underperformance of Apple could drag the rest of its portfolio.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Only Berkshire Hathaway Had Listened To Us, And Why It's Time To Exit Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Only Berkshire Hathaway Had Listened To Us, And Why It's Time To Exit Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-25 16:39 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471860-if-only-buffett-had-listened-to-us-and-why-its-time-to-exit-apple><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nOur original recommendation for Berkshire Hathaway to buy Apple was predicated partially on our opinion that the company was undervalued.\nAt this point, even with the tax expenses of selling,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471860-if-only-buffett-had-listened-to-us-and-why-its-time-to-exit-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471860-if-only-buffett-had-listened-to-us-and-why-its-time-to-exit-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1105943125","content_text":"Summary\n\nOur original recommendation for Berkshire Hathaway to buy Apple was predicated partially on our opinion that the company was undervalued.\nAt this point, even with the tax expenses of selling, we feel the valuation has hit a point where Berkshire Hathaway should be selling.\nBerkshire Hathaway has a cash problem that's not to be trivialized, however, that doesn't justify holding onto overvalued assets.\nThe company can use its cash to make significant additional investments in other businesses where it's growing.\n\nJust over three years ago, we wrote an article discussing how Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B)should utilize its massive cash pile to acquire Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). As we'll see throughout this article, while that trade would have panned out well, it's time for Berkshire Hathaway to exit its massive Apple investment.\nThe Acquisition\nOur original recommendation for the acquisition price with premium was a $1.23 trillion acquisition. Since then, Apple's market capitalization has more than doubled to $2.6 trillion. That's on the basis of substantial strength during COVID-19, where the company's FCF went from almost $65 billion to more than $90 billion.\nNew product lines for the business are growing well and it can be expected to continue growing going forward. Our pessimistic acquisition time assumption was Apple's FCF would stay constant at $65 billion while debt was paid out, however, this new FCF would have helped greatly accelerate the debt pay down for the company.\nBerkshire Hathaway's market capitalization, with the expansion in value, would be 3x as large. The company would have $865 billion in debt and have earned almost $150 billion in FCF in the most recent year. The giant would be a valuable long-term investment.\nApple Buffett Investment\nApple's Buffett investment has been arguably the best investment he's ever made.\nWarren Buffett's Apple investment has cost him roughly $40 billion. As Apple hits all-time highs, the most recent valuation of Apple's stake is almost $150 billion, implying paper profits of more than $100 billion. The peak capital gains tax rate is roughly 20%, implying ~$22 billion in taxes for the profits that the portfolio has seen so far.\nThat means that if he were to sell the investment, he'd turn $40 billion of cash into $125 billion of cash. That'd take Berkshire Hathaway's total cash position to roughly $260 billion.\nApple Valuation\nOur thesis for selling Apple is based on the company's recent massive multiple expansion.\nApple P/E Ratio - MacroTrends\nA significant part of Apple's returns over the past five years have been the company's massive multiple expansion. The company's PE ratio has gone from just over 10 to almost 30. That 3x expansion means that the company's PE yield is just over 3%. It's worth noting it's been expanding EPS and aggressively buying back shares supporting EPS.\nHowever, the takeaway here is that multiple expansion can't be expected to continue forever and the law of large numbers exists. That means that Apple's upcoming five-year returns can be expected to not match with the past five-year returns. As Apple becomes bigger and bigger, it becomes more and more a vehicle for the S&P 500 with individual company risk.\nOur Recommendation\nOur recommendation is that Berkshire Hathaway should sell Apple. For normal investors who hold Apple in their individual portfolios, we recommend the same. The reason is threefold.\n1. Apple's size means that continuing to provide market-beating returns is unlikely.\n2. The company's majority of share price performance has been multiple expansion, which can't be guaranteed to continue.\n3. Apple has enjoyed a peer-leading industry position, however, historically in tech, that's extremely difficult to maintain.\nBerkshire Hathaway will be left with a massive pile of cash and there are several ways we can see the company deploying it. For note, that $260 billion initial post tax cash will be almost half of its market capitalization. In our view, we can see several different ways that the company can utilize this cash to maximize shareholder rewards.\n1. Simply invest in the S&P 500. It has a 0.7% higher dividend yield than Apple meaning rolling the $150 billion cash into that would add more than $1 billion in additional dividend for the company. Berkshire Hathaway has discussed how beating the S&P 500 is difficult, and this is a simple solution to a complex problem.\n2. Buybacks. The remainder of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio is incredibly strong and generates massive FCF. The company has been buying back stock to the tune of roughly $20 billion annualized. It can accelerate that, enabling the value in the rest of its portfolio to be much more magnified. Buying back a significant amount at market value is tough, but it could buy back a reasonable amount.\n3. Acquisitions. There are a few industries that Berkshire Hathaway has been willing to touch in the existing market. Energy,such as the recent almost $10 billion Dominion acquisition, has been one of them. There's plenty of larger companies in the energy markets, and Berkshire Hathaway could make a stab for a larger one towards a $100 billion valuation.\nAny of these paths, or some combination, in our opinion, could help Berkshire Hathaway drive more substantial shareholder rewards.\nWhy Discuss\nA classic question for all Seeking Alpha articles, but why are we discussing Berkshire Hathaway portfolio recommendations with you? What's the actionable advice?\nThe first is that we believe, for the same reasons, Apple investors should sell their current investments in Apple. The company is a great company, no doubt about it, however, that doesn't make it a great investment, especially at the current valuation. The law of large numbers limits upside, but as an individual company, there's still substantial downside.\nThe second is that Berkshire Hathaway investors should pay close attention to how the company treats its Apple stake as well. The investment now makes up almost 25% of the company's portfolio. That means leaving it invested in Apple, which we expect will underperform, can present a drag on the rest of the company's portfolio and hurt its value as an investment.\nAll of this, and what happens with the remainder of the company's cash position, is something we recommend investors pay close attention to.\nThesis Risk\nThe risk to our thesis is that Apple is focused on consistent growth and the company has performed well recently. That's especially true given new projects Apple is focused on,like recent news about the Apple Car. There's a chance, with a limit of the law of large numbers, Apple can for at least some period of time continue outperforming the market.\nIt's also worth noting that Berkshire Hathaway will need to, because of the 20% tax rate, find a way to reinvest at slightly higher returns.\nConclusion\nBerkshire Hathaway's massive Apple investment is now almost 25% of its valuation as a company. Even by historical norms with other companies, that's incredibly high in a single business. That single business has seen those returns primarily through multiple expansion (at the P/E of 10, the $40 billion investment would be $50 billion versus $150 billion).\nOur view is that Berkshire Hathaway should eat the tax expense and grab the cash. In our view, there are numerous things the company can do over the coming years to achieve higher returns than its Apple investment would. Whether the company does those things is important because underperformance of Apple could drag the rest of its portfolio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325632287,"gmtCreate":1615892847549,"gmtModify":1703494577438,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325632287","repostId":"1134955391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134955391","pubTimestamp":1615889550,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134955391?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 18:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Nasdaq Is Acting Strange. What That Means for Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134955391","media":"Barrons","summary":"On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperfor","content":"<p>On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 3.5 percentage points—3.59, to be exact.</p>\n<p>Some believe it to be bullish for the market as a whole for the tech-heavy Nasdaq to outperform the blue chips by this much. But a careful reading of history suggests otherwise: Large divergences in the two indexes aren’t healthy.</p>\n<p>If you were to focus on just one trading session to make this point, consider the day when the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by the greatest amount: Jan. 3, 2001. On that day the Nasdaq’s outperformance (or alpha) over the Dow was an incredible 11.4 percentage points. No other day since the Nasdaq was created in February 1971 has come close to that large an alpha. Yet it was hardly a bullish omen. In fact, it came in the middle of the bear market that was caused by the bursting of the dot-com bubble.</p>\n<p>That’s just one data point, of course, but it’s consistent with the historical record. More often than not, an increased frequency of days with large Nasdaq alphas has been a sign of imminent market weakness.</p>\n<p>We certainly saw that at the top of the dot-com bubble. Over the three months prior to that top, there were no fewer than 14 trading sessions in which the Nasdaq’s alpha over the Dow was at least two percentage points. No other three-month period over the past 50 years has seen as many large positive alphas between the two indexes.</p>\n<p>In fact, during the nearly 11-year secular bull market between the March 2009 low and the February 2020 high, there was just one trading session with that big of a Nasdaq alpha. Ominously, there have been two such days over the past month alone.</p>\n<p>It’s not just positive Nasdaq alphas that are concerning. Large negative alphas are too. That’s noteworthy, since there has been a pickup recently in the number of such days as well. Over the past three months, for example, there have been four trading sessions with a Nasdaq alpha of greater than minus two percentage points. That brings the total number of large negative or positive alphas to six over the trailing six months. That’s the most since 2002.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated by the accompanying chart, which shows the number of large positive or negative alphas by year since the early 1970s. Aside from the months immediately before the top of the dot-com bubble, and then the ensuing bear market, this year is shaping up to be a record.</p>\n<p>How worried should you be by all this? At least somewhat, according to an analysis conducted for Barron’s by performance-tracking firm Hulbert Ratings. That analysis examined all trading sessions since the Nasdaq Composite was created in 1971, focusing on those days in which there were large alphas (more than two percentage points, positive or negative). A higher frequency of such days was associated with below-average market performance over the subsequent three months. Though the correlation was modest, it nevertheless reached the 95% confidence level that statisticians typically use when determining that a pattern is significant.</p>\n<p>You shouldn’t be surprised by this result, since a healthy market is one that is firing on all cylinders. While tiny divergences probably don’t mean anything, and a big divergence unaccompanied by any others is probably not a big deal, it becomes a source of concern when large divergences become more frequent—as they have been recently.</p>\n<p>Even if you aren’t persuaded by this statistical significance, these results show that the market is risky right now. At a minimum, you should not be celebrating days like March 9 in which there was a large positive Nasdaq alpha over the Dow.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Nasdaq Is Acting Strange. What That Means for Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Nasdaq Is Acting Strange. What That Means for Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 18:12 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-nasdaq-is-acting-strange-what-that-means-for-stocks-51615859213?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 3.5 percentage points—3.59, to be exact.\nSome ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-nasdaq-is-acting-strange-what-that-means-for-stocks-51615859213?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-nasdaq-is-acting-strange-what-that-means-for-stocks-51615859213?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134955391","content_text":"On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 3.5 percentage points—3.59, to be exact.\nSome believe it to be bullish for the market as a whole for the tech-heavy Nasdaq to outperform the blue chips by this much. But a careful reading of history suggests otherwise: Large divergences in the two indexes aren’t healthy.\nIf you were to focus on just one trading session to make this point, consider the day when the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by the greatest amount: Jan. 3, 2001. On that day the Nasdaq’s outperformance (or alpha) over the Dow was an incredible 11.4 percentage points. No other day since the Nasdaq was created in February 1971 has come close to that large an alpha. Yet it was hardly a bullish omen. In fact, it came in the middle of the bear market that was caused by the bursting of the dot-com bubble.\nThat’s just one data point, of course, but it’s consistent with the historical record. More often than not, an increased frequency of days with large Nasdaq alphas has been a sign of imminent market weakness.\nWe certainly saw that at the top of the dot-com bubble. Over the three months prior to that top, there were no fewer than 14 trading sessions in which the Nasdaq’s alpha over the Dow was at least two percentage points. No other three-month period over the past 50 years has seen as many large positive alphas between the two indexes.\nIn fact, during the nearly 11-year secular bull market between the March 2009 low and the February 2020 high, there was just one trading session with that big of a Nasdaq alpha. Ominously, there have been two such days over the past month alone.\nIt’s not just positive Nasdaq alphas that are concerning. Large negative alphas are too. That’s noteworthy, since there has been a pickup recently in the number of such days as well. Over the past three months, for example, there have been four trading sessions with a Nasdaq alpha of greater than minus two percentage points. That brings the total number of large negative or positive alphas to six over the trailing six months. That’s the most since 2002.\nThis is illustrated by the accompanying chart, which shows the number of large positive or negative alphas by year since the early 1970s. Aside from the months immediately before the top of the dot-com bubble, and then the ensuing bear market, this year is shaping up to be a record.\nHow worried should you be by all this? At least somewhat, according to an analysis conducted for Barron’s by performance-tracking firm Hulbert Ratings. That analysis examined all trading sessions since the Nasdaq Composite was created in 1971, focusing on those days in which there were large alphas (more than two percentage points, positive or negative). A higher frequency of such days was associated with below-average market performance over the subsequent three months. Though the correlation was modest, it nevertheless reached the 95% confidence level that statisticians typically use when determining that a pattern is significant.\nYou shouldn’t be surprised by this result, since a healthy market is one that is firing on all cylinders. While tiny divergences probably don’t mean anything, and a big divergence unaccompanied by any others is probably not a big deal, it becomes a source of concern when large divergences become more frequent—as they have been recently.\nEven if you aren’t persuaded by this statistical significance, these results show that the market is risky right now. At a minimum, you should not be celebrating days like March 9 in which there was a large positive Nasdaq alpha over the Dow.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387513635,"gmtCreate":1613753852427,"gmtModify":1634552339803,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387513635","repostId":"1100960455","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
