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夏天的颜色

夏天的颜色

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IP属地：江苏

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夏天的颜色

2022-08-26

粉丝专供股

夏天的颜色

2021-12-01

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

云音乐暗盘报200港元，预期将于12月2日挂牌上市

夏天的颜色

2021-08-28

刚吃完瓜，等尘埃落定再抄吧吧不然怕是关灯吃面楼顶见面

抱歉，原内容已删除

夏天的颜色

2021-08-27

$腾讯音乐(TME)$为了升级

夏天的颜色

2021-08-27

$墨菲石油(MUR)$为了升级

夏天的颜色

2021-08-20

好了，立马下跪认错。股价跌一波

抱歉，原内容已删除

夏天的颜色

2021-08-12

$美国铝业(AA)$。

夏天的颜色

2021-07-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@ushj:$腾讯音乐(TME)$护成河没了，腾讯的市场份额要被其他平台一点点的吃掉了

夏天的颜色

2021-07-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@李四张三的李四:$滴滴(DIDI)$$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$滴滴和AHT两位卧龙凤雏一个都没跑掉

夏天的颜色

2021-04-23

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

夏天的颜色

2020-12-29

转载

美股暴跌，只剩6个月？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c43d1a922db4732134480f05fff0da4\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">根据香港公开发售初步提呈发售的香港发售股份已获轻微超额认购。合共接获25,916份有效申请，认购合共1427.41万股香港发售股份，相当于香港公开发售项下初步可供认购香港发售股份总数约8.92倍。国际发售项下初步提呈发售的发售股份已获温和超额认购，占国际发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约1.7倍。</p>\n<p>根据最终发售价每股发售股份205.00港元及基石投资协议，基石投资者已按最终发售价认购合共1330.35万股，总认购额为3.50亿美元(相当于约27.27亿港元)，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份数目(任何超额配股权获行使前)约83.15%及占紧随全球发售完成后已发行股份约6.40%。</p>\n<p>假设超额配股权并无获行使，则根据每股发售股份最终发售价205.00港元，估计公司从全球发售收取的募集资金净额约为31.24亿港元。公司拟将募集资金净额约40%用作继续深耕公司的社区；约40%预计将用作继续创新并提高技术能力；约10%预计将用作甄选合并、收购及战略投资，包括继续物色能够与公司的业务和资源产生协同效应的潜在业务和资产，特别是在内容采购、数据和音频技术等领域；约10%预计将用作营运资金及一般企业用途。假设超额配股权获悉数行使，则公司将就超额配股权获行使后将予发行的240万股额外股份收取约4.85亿港元的额外募集资金净额。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n云音乐暗盘报200港元，预期将于12月2日挂牌上市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-01 15:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>12月1日消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09899\">云音乐</a>暗盘报200港元，较发行价跌2.44%。公司每股定价205港元，每手50股，将于12月2日（周四）港股挂牌上市。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b3fcc5da8af8beec093da2946a2087\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在此前的公开认购阶段，共有25,916人申购云音乐，中签人数10,785人，一手中签率20%，认购倍数8.92倍。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3d6fc8385fd32bf4e881b3800b243e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>分配结果</b></p>\n<p>甲组每手50股，一手中签率20%，申购8手稳中一手。</p>\n<p>乙组头为600手（30000股），获配120手（6000股）。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/559eee30eec0c6adaf2d699f4fce535c\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c43d1a922db4732134480f05fff0da4\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">根据香港公开发售初步提呈发售的香港发售股份已获轻微超额认购。合共接获25,916份有效申请，认购合共1427.41万股香港发售股份，相当于香港公开发售项下初步可供认购香港发售股份总数约8.92倍。国际发售项下初步提呈发售的发售股份已获温和超额认购，占国际发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约1.7倍。</p>\n<p>根据最终发售价每股发售股份205.00港元及基石投资协议，基石投资者已按最终发售价认购合共1330.35万股，总认购额为3.50亿美元(相当于约27.27亿港元)，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份数目(任何超额配股权获行使前)约83.15%及占紧随全球发售完成后已发行股份约6.40%。</p>\n<p>假设超额配股权并无获行使，则根据每股发售股份最终发售价205.00港元，估计公司从全球发售收取的募集资金净额约为31.24亿港元。公司拟将募集资金净额约40%用作继续深耕公司的社区；约40%预计将用作继续创新并提高技术能力；约10%预计将用作甄选合并、收购及战略投资，包括继续物色能够与公司的业务和资源产生协同效应的潜在业务和资产，特别是在内容采购、数据和音频技术等领域；约10%预计将用作营运资金及一般企业用途。假设超额配股权获悉数行使，则公司将就超额配股权获行使后将予发行的240万股额外股份收取约4.85亿港元的额外募集资金净额。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fb0a544aa253b668379d9f58bbe5a9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188192452","content_text":"12月1日消息，云音乐暗盘报200港元，较发行价跌2.44%。公司每股定价205港元，每手50股，将于12月2日（周四）港股挂牌上市。\n在此前的公开认购阶段，共有25,916人申购云音乐，中签人数10,785人，一手中签率20%，认购倍数8.92倍。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：分配结果\n甲组每手50股，一手中签率20%，申购8手稳中一手。\n乙组头为600手（30000股），获配120手（6000股）。\n根据香港公开发售初步提呈发售的香港发售股份已获轻微超额认购。合共接获25,916份有效申请，认购合共1427.41万股香港发售股份，相当于香港公开发售项下初步可供认购香港发售股份总数约8.92倍。国际发售项下初步提呈发售的发售股份已获温和超额认购，占国际发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约1.7倍。\n根据最终发售价每股发售股份205.00港元及基石投资协议，基石投资者已按最终发售价认购合共1330.35万股，总认购额为3.50亿美元(相当于约27.27亿港元)，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份数目(任何超额配股权获行使前)约83.15%及占紧随全球发售完成后已发行股份约6.40%。\n假设超额配股权并无获行使，则根据每股发售股份最终发售价205.00港元，估计公司从全球发售收取的募集资金净额约为31.24亿港元。公司拟将募集资金净额约40%用作继续深耕公司的社区；约40%预计将用作继续创新并提高技术能力；约10%预计将用作甄选合并、收购及战略投资，包括继续物色能够与公司的业务和资源产生协同效应的潜在业务和资产，特别是在内容采购、数据和音频技术等领域；约10%预计将用作营运资金及一般企业用途。假设超额配股权获悉数行使，则公司将就超额配股权获行使后将予发行的240万股额外股份收取约4.85亿港元的额外募集资金净额。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":819483617,"gmtCreate":1630087996539,"gmtModify":1704955827571,"author":{"id":"3565648799653728","authorId":"3565648799653728","name":"夏天的颜色","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87af777622c4b28f52a1ff7d23b894d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"刚吃完瓜，等尘埃落定再抄吧吧不然怕是关灯吃面楼顶见面","listText":"刚吃完瓜，等尘埃落定再抄吧吧不然怕是关灯吃面楼顶见面","text":"刚吃完瓜，等尘埃落定再抄吧吧不然怕是关灯吃面楼顶见面","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819483617","repostId":"1162324682","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810701259,"gmtCreate":1630002440071,"gmtModify":1704954442714,"author":{"id":"3565648799653728","authorId":"3565648799653728","name":"夏天的颜色","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87af777622c4b28f52a1ff7d23b894d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHT\">$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$</a>滴滴和AHT两位卧龙凤雏一个都没跑掉","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$滴滴和AHT两位卧龙凤雏一个都没跑掉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0708dcae0ddc3aed66414d15cafb784b","width":"286","height":"258"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157607297","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376653717,"gmtCreate":1619114038839,"gmtModify":1619114038839,"author":{"id":"3565648799653728","authorId":"3565648799653728","name":"夏天的颜色","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87af777622c4b28f52a1ff7d23b894d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376653717","repostId":"1154223077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333690033,"gmtCreate":1609250552022,"gmtModify":1703738413368,"author":{"id":"3565648799653728","authorId":"3565648799653728","name":"夏天的颜色","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87af777622c4b28f52a1ff7d23b894d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"转载","listText":"转载","text":"转载","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333690033","repostId":"2095573820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2095573820","pubTimestamp":1609245600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2095573820?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-29 20:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美股暴跌，只剩6个月？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2095573820","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"2000年、2008年和2018年，这个风险指数都分别达到了10年来的最高水平，美股随后都遭遇了暴跌。结果，就是疫情袭击之下，2020年3月份的暴跌，高盛惨遭打脸。现在，2020年即将过去，美股不仅反弹至前高，还远超出前高，高盛这个“美股风险模型”的高度预见性，由此可略见一斑。就用美股估值、失业率、通胀率、ISM指数和收益率曲线扁平程度这5个指标来进行平均，目前的美股风险指数大约是68%。","content":"<p>在2017年9月份的时候，顶级投行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>出了一份报告，报告的题目，叫做：<b>熊市的必要条件（Bear Necessities）。</b></p><p>具体的内容呢，就是分析了美股过去200年来的30次股票市场大跌的情况，找出他们之间最大的共同点。</p><p>报告分析了40个宏观指标、市场指标和技术指标，结果发现，并没有任何一个指标能包打天下，每一次都准确指示股市即将大跌，但的确有一些指标还是非常有指示性——例如，从宏观经济来看，熊市基本都发生在经济增长变缓、股市高估值且央行即将升息的环境中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffff917a9aaa41a3acaa22c3f0ea8bbb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"370\"></p><p>为此，该报告提出了5个股市即将大跌的必要指标异常：</p><p><b>1）估值水平（一般用Shiller PE表示）</b></p><p>如果股市本身在低位，跌也跌不了多少，所以股市估值高位是大跌的一个必要条件，但，反过来并不成立——股市估值高，并不一定马上引发大跌，高估值可以持续很久。</p><p><b>2）失业率</b></p><p>如果经济遭遇衰退，企业利润受到打击，一定会造成失业率大幅度上升，所以，在股市大跌之前，失业率一定有一个不断走低的过程，然后才会出现上升。</p><p><b>3）通胀率</b></p><p>通货膨胀上升，通常是经济繁荣周期末的信号，而且可能促使央行收紧货币政策，引发经济融资成本上升，造成经济衰退和熊市——不过，由于央行对利率的操纵，导致利率变化滞后于经济中的自然利率，通货膨胀在走高的时候，股市通常就已经先跌为敬，通胀高点是大跌的滞后指标。</p><p><b>4）ISM指数</b></p><p>ISM的全称是“美国供应管理协会（Instituteof Supply Management）”，其每月公布的采购经理人指数（PMI）及制造业指数（通常被简称为ISM指数），代表着着美国乃至全球经济在生产领域的状态，当这两个指标由高点开始回落的时候，通常意味着经济开始变差，公司的盈利减少，是非常明显的经济领先指标。</p><p><b>5）收益率曲线</b></p><p>“收益率曲线（YC）”概念，我以往曾多次普及过，而在股市大跌之前，通常都会出现收益率曲线扁平化的现象——长期利率（通常用10年期国债收益率）与短期利率（2年或3个月国债收益率）趋同甚至倒挂，通常是短期的国债收益率上升（央行加息），而长期的国债收益率下降（避险资金涌入抬高国债价格），收益率扁平化会让商业银行丧失向经济体投放信贷的动力，所以预示着经济短期内的回落，股市可能面临大跌。</p><p>到了2019年，高盛又对这个报告进行了补充，特意补充了一个指标：</p><p><b>6）私营部门的收支平衡，</b>通过计算居民及企业收入与支出差额，衡量金融过热风险。</p><p>&nbsp;然后，对上述6项指标所处的历史百分位数取平均值，就可以得到美股的<b>“风险指数”</b>了。</p><p>下图，就是1955-2019年底65年的美股风险指数（灰色竖条为美股暴跌期）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fac8e477374a5b945fed4520731154\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"594\"></p><p>一般而言，这个风险指数高于60%，那么回撤的风险会明显加大，风险指数越高，回撤幅度通常也越大，如果到达顶点（通常在70%以上），基本意味着大跌在即；当风险指数低于40%时，股市上涨的可能性更大，而且其值越低，股市的上涨的空间也越大。</p><p>高盛的报告，还将美股暴跌分为突发事件类熊市（半年即可恢复）、经济衰退类熊市（2年左右才能恢复）、结构错位类熊市（超预期的经济深度衰退，恢复时间可长达10年），而高盛所发明的这个美股风险指标，除个别突发事件类熊市之外，对于所有类型的美股暴跌，都具有良好的指示作用。</p><p>2000年、2008年和2018年，这个风险指数都分别达到了10年来的最高水平，美股随后都遭遇了暴跌。2018年大跌之后，由于2019年该指数持续下降，所以，高盛2019年底大胆预测，2020年美国不会遭遇经济衰退，美股牛市将延续……</p><p>结果，就是疫情袭击之下，2020年3月份的暴跌，高盛惨遭打脸。</p><p>但是，我并不想说这个指标无效——恰恰相反的是，我认为这个指数非常有效，2020年的疫情袭击叠加沙特原油价格战叠加美国公司债危机，才使得2020年3月份的暴跌如此迅猛。</p><p>然而，就在美股暴跌至最低点的时候，根据上述模型，高盛又发出了明确的预测，声称2020年结束的时候，美股标普500的点位将恢复到3200点左右，我特意还将那张图保留下来（见下图）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5924125783b94574bb5f36676130a503\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"587\"></p><p>现在，2020年即将过去，美股不仅反弹至前高，还远超出前高，高盛这个“美股风险模型”的高度预见性，由此可略见一斑。</p><p>目前，高盛并没有公布，最新的美股风险值到底是多少，但我们可以通过分解指标来测算一下。</p><p>1）美股当前的估值水平，按照席勒市盈率，仅次于2000年科技股泡沫，在Shiller PE所处的历史百分位为95%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c43ae1b1a4438ba190d2df0a899015\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"474\"></p><p>2）美国失业率：处于疫情爆发以来的低点，约处于近10年40%分位的水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e118d8a1a2574259a4dc3ae4e582a7f0\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"579\"></p><p>3）美元通货膨胀率：目前正在抬升，处于过去10年40%历史分位水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f46d4eaec42378fe64529d1ef773a\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"589\"></p><p>4）ISM指数：受益于美国疫情救助法案，美国的中小企业和居民收入暴增，美国人民有了钱，当然是买买买了，企业生产自然要迎合这种消费，所以目前美国的PMI，基本已经抬升到了近10年来的最高点，处于过去10年历史93%分位的水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6bff4af22a49dea04d93f615abd380\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"530\"></p><p>5）收益率曲线扁平程度，用10年期-2年期国债收益率表示，其扁平程度在2019年底到达顶点，在美联储将基准利率降至0之后，基差有所恢复，目前的长短利率差，约处于70%的历史低位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd7affdf8ef4739966f16e4e7618e84\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"581\"></p><p>6）私营部门收支平衡：这个指标我无法获取历史数据，暂且放弃。</p><p><b>就用美股估值、失业率、通胀率、ISM指数和收益率曲线扁平程度这5个指标来进行平均，目前的美股风险指数大约是68%。</b></p><p>68%的指标值，已经明显高于2019年底的61%，接近2018年底69%的水平。</p><p>就在这两天，美国又推出了9000亿美元的财政刺激计划，这必将进一步推升美国的通胀率，而美国的PMI已经处于高位下滑中，而长短债利差在美联储购买国债的操纵之下，也很难有效抬升，如果美国的失业率开始稳定，那么——<b>美股的大跌时刻，很快就会来临。</b></p><p>跳一次大神的话，我个人判断，如果美股在未来半年内继续上涨，并且上半年标普指数就涨至4000点左右的话，暴跌发生的时段，很可能在2021年年中前后。</p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股暴跌，只剩6个月？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴跌，只剩6个月？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-29 20:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-8SHIdpI44aF8KfuN0mD3g><strong>财主家的余粮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2017年9月份的时候，顶级投行高盛出了一份报告，报告的题目，叫做：熊市的必要条件（Bear Necessities）。具体的内容呢，就是分析了美股过去200年来的30次股票市场大跌的情况，找出他们之间最大的共同点。报告分析了40个宏观指标、市场指标和技术指标，结果发现，并没有任何一个指标能包打天下，每一次都准确指示股市即将大跌，但的确有一些指标还是非常有指示性——例如，从宏观经济来看，熊市基本...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-8SHIdpI44aF8KfuN0mD3g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31992235e2d733c9c23402f8622ffd51","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-8SHIdpI44aF8KfuN0mD3g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2095573820","content_text":"在2017年9月份的时候，顶级投行高盛出了一份报告，报告的题目，叫做：熊市的必要条件（Bear Necessities）。具体的内容呢，就是分析了美股过去200年来的30次股票市场大跌的情况，找出他们之间最大的共同点。报告分析了40个宏观指标、市场指标和技术指标，结果发现，并没有任何一个指标能包打天下，每一次都准确指示股市即将大跌，但的确有一些指标还是非常有指示性——例如，从宏观经济来看，熊市基本都发生在经济增长变缓、股市高估值且央行即将升息的环境中。为此，该报告提出了5个股市即将大跌的必要指标异常：1）估值水平（一般用Shiller PE表示）如果股市本身在低位，跌也跌不了多少，所以股市估值高位是大跌的一个必要条件，但，反过来并不成立——股市估值高，并不一定马上引发大跌，高估值可以持续很久。2）失业率如果经济遭遇衰退，企业利润受到打击，一定会造成失业率大幅度上升，所以，在股市大跌之前，失业率一定有一个不断走低的过程，然后才会出现上升。3）通胀率通货膨胀上升，通常是经济繁荣周期末的信号，而且可能促使央行收紧货币政策，引发经济融资成本上升，造成经济衰退和熊市——不过，由于央行对利率的操纵，导致利率变化滞后于经济中的自然利率，通货膨胀在走高的时候，股市通常就已经先跌为敬，通胀高点是大跌的滞后指标。4）ISM指数ISM的全称是“美国供应管理协会（Instituteof Supply Management）”，其每月公布的采购经理人指数（PMI）及制造业指数（通常被简称为ISM指数），代表着着美国乃至全球经济在生产领域的状态，当这两个指标由高点开始回落的时候，通常意味着经济开始变差，公司的盈利减少，是非常明显的经济领先指标。5）收益率曲线“收益率曲线（YC）”概念，我以往曾多次普及过，而在股市大跌之前，通常都会出现收益率曲线扁平化的现象——长期利率（通常用10年期国债收益率）与短期利率（2年或3个月国债收益率）趋同甚至倒挂，通常是短期的国债收益率上升（央行加息），而长期的国债收益率下降（避险资金涌入抬高国债价格），收益率扁平化会让商业银行丧失向经济体投放信贷的动力，所以预示着经济短期内的回落，股市可能面临大跌。到了2019年，高盛又对这个报告进行了补充，特意补充了一个指标：6）私营部门的收支平衡，通过计算居民及企业收入与支出差额，衡量金融过热风险。 然后，对上述6项指标所处的历史百分位数取平均值，就可以得到美股的“风险指数”了。下图，就是1955-2019年底65年的美股风险指数（灰色竖条为美股暴跌期）。一般而言，这个风险指数高于60%，那么回撤的风险会明显加大，风险指数越高，回撤幅度通常也越大，如果到达顶点（通常在70%以上），基本意味着大跌在即；当风险指数低于40%时，股市上涨的可能性更大，而且其值越低，股市的上涨的空间也越大。高盛的报告，还将美股暴跌分为突发事件类熊市（半年即可恢复）、经济衰退类熊市（2年左右才能恢复）、结构错位类熊市（超预期的经济深度衰退，恢复时间可长达10年），而高盛所发明的这个美股风险指标，除个别突发事件类熊市之外，对于所有类型的美股暴跌，都具有良好的指示作用。2000年、2008年和2018年，这个风险指数都分别达到了10年来的最高水平，美股随后都遭遇了暴跌。2018年大跌之后，由于2019年该指数持续下降，所以，高盛2019年底大胆预测，2020年美国不会遭遇经济衰退，美股牛市将延续……结果，就是疫情袭击之下，2020年3月份的暴跌，高盛惨遭打脸。但是，我并不想说这个指标无效——恰恰相反的是，我认为这个指数非常有效，2020年的疫情袭击叠加沙特原油价格战叠加美国公司债危机，才使得2020年3月份的暴跌如此迅猛。然而，就在美股暴跌至最低点的时候，根据上述模型，高盛又发出了明确的预测，声称2020年结束的时候，美股标普500的点位将恢复到3200点左右，我特意还将那张图保留下来（见下图）。现在，2020年即将过去，美股不仅反弹至前高，还远超出前高，高盛这个“美股风险模型”的高度预见性，由此可略见一斑。目前，高盛并没有公布，最新的美股风险值到底是多少，但我们可以通过分解指标来测算一下。1）美股当前的估值水平，按照席勒市盈率，仅次于2000年科技股泡沫，在Shiller PE所处的历史百分位为95%。2）美国失业率：处于疫情爆发以来的低点，约处于近10年40%分位的水平。3）美元通货膨胀率：目前正在抬升，处于过去10年40%历史分位水平。4）ISM指数：受益于美国疫情救助法案，美国的中小企业和居民收入暴增，美国人民有了钱，当然是买买买了，企业生产自然要迎合这种消费，所以目前美国的PMI，基本已经抬升到了近10年来的最高点，处于过去10年历史93%分位的水平。5）收益率曲线扁平程度，用10年期-2年期国债收益率表示，其扁平程度在2019年底到达顶点，在美联储将基准利率降至0之后，基差有所恢复，目前的长短利率差，约处于70%的历史低位。6）私营部门收支平衡：这个指标我无法获取历史数据，暂且放弃。就用美股估值、失业率、通胀率、ISM指数和收益率曲线扁平程度这5个指标来进行平均，目前的美股风险指数大约是68%。68%的指标值，已经明显高于2019年底的61%，接近2018年底69%的水平。就在这两天，美国又推出了9000亿美元的财政刺激计划，这必将进一步推升美国的通胀率，而美国的PMI已经处于高位下滑中，而长短债利差在美联储购买国债的操纵之下，也很难有效抬升，如果美国的失业率开始稳定，那么——美股的大跌时刻，很快就会来临。跳一次大神的话，我个人判断，如果美股在未来半年内继续上涨，并且上半年标普指数就涨至4000点左右的话，暴跌发生的时段，很可能在2021年年中前后。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":894965534,"gmtCreate":1628783409728,"gmtModify":1628783409728,"author":{"id":"3565648799653728","authorId":"3565648799653728","name":"夏天的颜色","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87af777622c4b28f52a1ff7d23b894d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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