锐信资本的个人主页 - 老虎社区

锐信资本

锐信资本

职业投资人，清华大学计算机硕士，美国伯克利HAAS商学院MBA，长江商学院 EMBA，CFA；如有问题咨询请私信。

IP属地：四川

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797粉丝

2主题

0勋章

01-20 19:18

收购格陵兰岛的确定**易

收购格陵兰岛的确定**易

01-19 20:25

牛哄哄的韩国股市

牛哄哄的韩国股市

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美国K型经济的又一证据3（住房）

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沃什当美联储主席就会很鹰派吗？

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01-16

市场总结与展望热点交流：一、时间：2025年01月18日晚20-21:30 二、形式：线上三、内容： 1.锐信财经本周三大核心投资思路拆解 1.1 美国25Q4财报和交易思路 1.2： 1月美股趋势研判和对冲思路 1.3： A股盆接思路和纺锤配置 2.嘉宾分享: 2.1：分享主题一个今年重点的美股套利标的分享嘉宾：曾总：某个香港大型投资机构基金经理，私董会会员 2.2：分享主题当前A，H半导体行业更新和标的选择分享嘉宾：路博士： 15年以上半导体资深业内人士，国内某大型半导体公司资深战略研究员，私董会成员 3.群友交流围绕当前市场具确定性的机会进行深度交流与碰撞

01-16

美国两个制造业PMI数据的差异

美国两个制造业PMI数据的差异

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交易所改变了拔网线的方式

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美国11月的生产者物价指数PPI数据

美国11月的生产者物价指数PPI数据

01-14

美国11月的恐怖数据

美国11月的恐怖数据

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2026年整体宏观预测

2026年整体宏观预测

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美国12月的CPI数据

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美国的财政QE（量化宽松）

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周五美股重大事件和市场剧本

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白银短期的4大关键价格决定因数

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美国最近就业情况

01-07

高盛对2026的全球宏观预测

高盛对2026的全球宏观预测

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\n \n  美股Q2季报（31）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报我的观点是在自己的美股投资组合里面或多或少应该配置一点SAAS的股票。原因有三个： 第一. 长期看AAS公司股价表现都不错的。 这是前20大美股SAAS公司上市至今的表现。 平均涨了13.7倍。中位数是涨了9.4倍。 如果看年化回报IRR的话平均46%，中位数39%。 远远高于大市也是最高回报的行业之一了。 SAAS公司股价波动是很大。不过要追求高回报的话配一点我觉得挺好。 第二. SAAS一般是订阅模式，现金流和收入可预测性好。 而且用的Land and Expandion 策略。就是先给客户提供一些小的但是粘性很强的软件服务，然后在客户在你的软件平台上用的越来越多，信任的越来越强。就会买你更多功能。你也更了解客户的需求。 这种战略下，除非出现一些颠覆性的技术或者事件。公司一般开头难做以后是雪球越滚越大。 所以能上市的公司基本都相对稳定，投资的风险也会小一点。 最后：绝大部分美国SAAS公司都是TOB的。在企业客户使用过程发现要么帮企业省钱了要么逐渐变成了企业运作不可缺少的基础设施。 这个特点就让SAAS公司比较不容受到经济周期的影响。这点从很多SAAS公司财报就看的出来。 前两天我给大家说过一个网络安全龙头SAAS公司派拓网络就是这样。这两天发财报的跨平台云服务的SAAS公司Snowflake也是这样。 收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%。这基本是SAAS公司的天花板了。 75%毛利还在提高。 现金流也不错。non-gaap的运营利润率从去年负数到现在正的4%了。 自由现金流利润率同比还提高了10个点。 完全也是看不出来经济下滑对其影响对吧. 也说明我一直视频里面强调美国数据中心，云相关业务现在的确很强。 当然Snowflake也不是没有缺点。最大的不好就是不便宜的。 SAAS公司一般估值都贵，Sn\n \n","listText":"美股Q2季报（31）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报我的观点是在自己的美股投资组合里面或多或少应该配置一点SAAS的股票。原因有三个： 第一. 长期看AAS公司股价表现都不错的。 这是前20大美股SAAS公司上市至今的表现。 平均涨了13.7倍。中位数是涨了9.4倍。 如果看年化回报IRR的话平均46%，中位数39%。 远远高于大市也是最高回报的行业之一了。 SAAS公司股价波动是很大。不过要追求高回报的话配一点我觉得挺好。 第二. SAAS一般是订阅模式，现金流和收入可预测性好。 而且用的Land and Expandion 策略。就是先给客户提供一些小的但是粘性很强的软件服务，然后在客户在你的软件平台上用的越来越多，信任的越来越强。就会买你更多功能。你也更了解客户的需求。 这种战略下，除非出现一些颠覆性的技术或者事件。公司一般开头难做以后是雪球越滚越大。 所以能上市的公司基本都相对稳定，投资的风险也会小一点。 最后：绝大部分美国SAAS公司都是TOB的。在企业客户使用过程发现要么帮企业省钱了要么逐渐变成了企业运作不可缺少的基础设施。 这个特点就让SAAS公司比较不容受到经济周期的影响。这点从很多SAAS公司财报就看的出来。 前两天我给大家说过一个网络安全龙头SAAS公司派拓网络就是这样。这两天发财报的跨平台云服务的SAAS公司Snowflake也是这样。 收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%。这基本是SAAS公司的天花板了。 75%毛利还在提高。 现金流也不错。non-gaap的运营利润率从去年负数到现在正的4%了。 自由现金流利润率同比还提高了10个点。 完全也是看不出来经济下滑对其影响对吧. 也说明我一直视频里面强调美国数据中心，云相关业务现在的确很强。 当然Snowflake也不是没有缺点。最大的不好就是不便宜的。 SAAS公司一般估值都贵，Sn","text":"美股Q2季报（31）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报我的观点是在自己的美股投资组合里面或多或少应该配置一点SAAS的股票。原因有三个： 第一. 长期看AAS公司股价表现都不错的。 这是前20大美股SAAS公司上市至今的表现。 平均涨了13.7倍。中位数是涨了9.4倍。 如果看年化回报IRR的话平均46%，中位数39%。 远远高于大市也是最高回报的行业之一了。 SAAS公司股价波动是很大。不过要追求高回报的话配一点我觉得挺好。 第二. SAAS一般是订阅模式，现金流和收入可预测性好。 而且用的Land and Expandion 策略。就是先给客户提供一些小的但是粘性很强的软件服务，然后在客户在你的软件平台上用的越来越多，信任的越来越强。就会买你更多功能。你也更了解客户的需求。 这种战略下，除非出现一些颠覆性的技术或者事件。公司一般开头难做以后是雪球越滚越大。 所以能上市的公司基本都相对稳定，投资的风险也会小一点。 最后：绝大部分美国SAAS公司都是TOB的。在企业客户使用过程发现要么帮企业省钱了要么逐渐变成了企业运作不可缺少的基础设施。 这个特点就让SAAS公司比较不容受到经济周期的影响。这点从很多SAAS公司财报就看的出来。 前两天我给大家说过一个网络安全龙头SAAS公司派拓网络就是这样。这两天发财报的跨平台云服务的SAAS公司Snowflake也是这样。 收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%。这基本是SAAS公司的天花板了。 75%毛利还在提高。 现金流也不错。non-gaap的运营利润率从去年负数到现在正的4%了。 自由现金流利润率同比还提高了10个点。 完全也是看不出来经济下滑对其影响对吧. 也说明我一直视频里面强调美国数据中心，云相关业务现在的确很强。 当然Snowflake也不是没有缺点。最大的不好就是不便宜的。 SAAS公司一般估值都贵，Sn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":239,"commentSize":33,"repostSize":58,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660761920","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"134551e10d6c4b71ab248a1476b3e1b9","tweetId":"660761920","title":"美股Q季报（18）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报\n#美股 #商业思维 #经济 #美国 #商业","videoUrl":"https://aweme.snssdk.com/aweme/v1/playwm/?video_id=v0300fg10000cc7f5rrc77u5s58o49jg&ratio=720p&line=0","poster":"https://p26-sign.douyinpic.com/tos-cn-p-0015/b91cf0b42fe841f0aad072d013b86646~c5_300x400.jpeg?x-expires=1663138800&x-signature=LYRRwuJ6tXp5ojknzYEzykHSCnk%3D&from=4257465056_large&s=PackSourceEnum_DOUYIN_REFLOW&se=false&sc=cover&l=202208311543440102080160802500FED6","shareLink":"https://v.douyin.com/jwWUDma/"},"viewCount":22110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000220","authorId":"9000000000000220","name":"沙漠追光大海逐风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30b7f24ce0a6599dcdfa3567f958dea","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000220","idStr":"9000000000000220"},"content":"之前好像见你解读过这个公司，你对这个公司有情怀","text":"之前好像见你解读过这个公司，你对这个公司有情怀","html":"之前好像见你解读过这个公司，你对这个公司有情怀"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000561","authorId":"9000000000000561","name":"玉米地里吃亏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f17aeaa30e8039ae5934d80a1a1ba11","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000561","idStr":"9000000000000561"},"content":"收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%，就这个数据就能打动我","text":"收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%，就这个数据就能打动我","html":"收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%，就这个数据就能打动我"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291737479438584,"gmtCreate":1712250856740,"gmtModify":1712330474807,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"特斯拉和电动车行业的问题","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":29,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291737479438584","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"92a5666758eb48f385b926cf19680d15","tweetId":"291737479438584","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/696f2afc1397757888317331778/8gFWHf50YAoA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6950ffcd5dedaea9aa65b201ecd922c4"},"viewCount":37734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472640255046348","authorId":"3472640255046348","name":"回心转意","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f698175ab5e3e0270c3904f255ce30","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3472640255046348","idStr":"3472640255046348"},"content":"这种低质量的视频还是别放在推荐吧","text":"这种低质量的视频还是别放在推荐吧","html":"这种低质量的视频还是别放在推荐吧"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000222","authorId":"9000000000000222","name":"得失缘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/350e6f270c729270f949e2f6e0082308","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000222","idStr":"9000000000000222"},"content":"以前是交付问题，现在是销售问题","text":"以前是交付问题，现在是销售问题","html":"以前是交付问题，现在是销售问题"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":658488996,"gmtCreate":1682966394615,"gmtModify":1682988216869,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"第一共和银行破产收购的赢家和输家\n","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":95,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":26,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658488996","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"23631af469744c5bb2e8ec4232a290cf","tweetId":"658488996","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/a84e2a8f243791581533163544/nQAId3vKakoA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/580a0f4aebde2cbb44026cdbef5fbbc5"},"viewCount":20984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4120360017010400","authorId":"4120360017010400","name":"一个了不起的故事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee8ea6bdd1c0b0dad01fd85a077f35e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4120360017010400","idStr":"4120360017010400"},"content":"若是在A股，被收购应该7个涨停板。美股为啥成这个样子？[笑哭]","text":"若是在A股，被收购应该7个涨停板。美股为啥成这个样子？[笑哭]","html":"若是在A股，被收购应该7个涨停板。美股为啥成这个样子？[笑哭]"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010312","authorId":"10000000000010312","name":"微微软","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e0fafb6a0868fdff5a6626301b88f7c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010312","idStr":"10000000000010312"},"content":"总之这对于这银行股东肯定不是好事","text":"总之这对于这银行股东肯定不是好事","html":"总之这对于这银行股东肯定不是好事"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":219504473231408,"gmtCreate":1694627506203,"gmtModify":1694641240677,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么说中国现在是投资机会？","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images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\n \n  最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金 会员群朋友问我为什么特斯拉最近股价大跌。 这个和马斯克收购推特很有关系。 首先： 大家看他收购Twitter的资金结构。 费用利息加起来一共是465亿。 其中210亿是Equity股。 另外335亿是债。 债里面有125亿是马斯克哪自己特斯拉股票做抵押借的保证金贷款。 而这个钱就是出问题的关键。 其次 这个比贷款细节大家看这个表。列出了他在4月份刚签贷款协议和10月份已经特斯拉股价做了1拆三的拆股后他各自要抵押的特斯拉股份数量和股份价值。 核心大家看是这个20%的Loan to Value 就是贷款比上贷款加抵押品的比值简称LTV要求不高于20%。 高了就得补保证金。 第三： 那现在有2。59亿股。 借款125亿。 特斯拉股价到多了LTV就会高于20%要补保证金呢。 这个很好算对吧。算下来就是193 左右。 所以大家看到特斯拉股价跌到这个数就会继续有波大的跌幅，因为马斯克不得不卖股票去补保证金。而且越跌要卖的更多。 第四; 现在已经是跌下193了。 有人说看到新闻说马斯克和银行会从新协商这个保证金贷款。 这个没错。 这个协商对老马是不利的。 因为金融市场的恶化，大家看现在杠杆收购贷款的成本已经比当时收购Twitter的时候高了。这个LTV即使降一个-0.5%大家看。马斯克都要多抵押16亿美金的特斯拉股票。 现在特斯拉股票一直在跌。 看起来他要去卖股票的行为还停不下来。 大家看这几天他有卖了3个亿的股票。 所以综上所述。特斯拉的股价最近完全是被马斯克收购Twitter的融资结构和保证金贷款给坑了。 当然老马还有很多特斯拉股票肯定垮不了。特斯拉也是个好公司。 但是近期大家还是不要接这把下跌的飞刀比较好。 等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了。可是特斯拉就是一个非常诱人的进入时机了。 大家觉得呢？&nbsp;\n \n","listText":"最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金 会员群朋友问我为什么特斯拉最近股价大跌。 这个和马斯克收购推特很有关系。 首先： 大家看他收购Twitter的资金结构。 费用利息加起来一共是465亿。 其中210亿是Equity股。 另外335亿是债。 债里面有125亿是马斯克哪自己特斯拉股票做抵押借的保证金贷款。 而这个钱就是出问题的关键。 其次 这个比贷款细节大家看这个表。列出了他在4月份刚签贷款协议和10月份已经特斯拉股价做了1拆三的拆股后他各自要抵押的特斯拉股份数量和股份价值。 核心大家看是这个20%的Loan to Value 就是贷款比上贷款加抵押品的比值简称LTV要求不高于20%。 高了就得补保证金。 第三： 那现在有2。59亿股。 借款125亿。 特斯拉股价到多了LTV就会高于20%要补保证金呢。 这个很好算对吧。算下来就是193 左右。 所以大家看到特斯拉股价跌到这个数就会继续有波大的跌幅，因为马斯克不得不卖股票去补保证金。而且越跌要卖的更多。 第四; 现在已经是跌下193了。 有人说看到新闻说马斯克和银行会从新协商这个保证金贷款。 这个没错。 这个协商对老马是不利的。 因为金融市场的恶化，大家看现在杠杆收购贷款的成本已经比当时收购Twitter的时候高了。这个LTV即使降一个-0.5%大家看。马斯克都要多抵押16亿美金的特斯拉股票。 现在特斯拉股票一直在跌。 看起来他要去卖股票的行为还停不下来。 大家看这几天他有卖了3个亿的股票。 所以综上所述。特斯拉的股价最近完全是被马斯克收购Twitter的融资结构和保证金贷款给坑了。 当然老马还有很多特斯拉股票肯定垮不了。特斯拉也是个好公司。 但是近期大家还是不要接这把下跌的飞刀比较好。 等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了。可是特斯拉就是一个非常诱人的进入时机了。 大家觉得呢？&nbsp;","text":"最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金 会员群朋友问我为什么特斯拉最近股价大跌。 这个和马斯克收购推特很有关系。 首先： 大家看他收购Twitter的资金结构。 费用利息加起来一共是465亿。 其中210亿是Equity股。 另外335亿是债。 债里面有125亿是马斯克哪自己特斯拉股票做抵押借的保证金贷款。 而这个钱就是出问题的关键。 其次 这个比贷款细节大家看这个表。列出了他在4月份刚签贷款协议和10月份已经特斯拉股价做了1拆三的拆股后他各自要抵押的特斯拉股份数量和股份价值。 核心大家看是这个20%的Loan to Value 就是贷款比上贷款加抵押品的比值简称LTV要求不高于20%。 高了就得补保证金。 第三： 那现在有2。59亿股。 借款125亿。 特斯拉股价到多了LTV就会高于20%要补保证金呢。 这个很好算对吧。算下来就是193 左右。 所以大家看到特斯拉股价跌到这个数就会继续有波大的跌幅，因为马斯克不得不卖股票去补保证金。而且越跌要卖的更多。 第四; 现在已经是跌下193了。 有人说看到新闻说马斯克和银行会从新协商这个保证金贷款。 这个没错。 这个协商对老马是不利的。 因为金融市场的恶化，大家看现在杠杆收购贷款的成本已经比当时收购Twitter的时候高了。这个LTV即使降一个-0.5%大家看。马斯克都要多抵押16亿美金的特斯拉股票。 现在特斯拉股票一直在跌。 看起来他要去卖股票的行为还停不下来。 大家看这几天他有卖了3个亿的股票。 所以综上所述。特斯拉的股价最近完全是被马斯克收购Twitter的融资结构和保证金贷款给坑了。 当然老马还有很多特斯拉股票肯定垮不了。特斯拉也是个好公司。 但是近期大家还是不要接这把下跌的飞刀比较好。 等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了。可是特斯拉就是一个非常诱人的进入时机了。 大家觉得呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":113,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":14,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623662529","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"5050e0d99ca742b7b8eb35a1c1e165fe","tweetId":"623662529","title":"最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金\n#特斯拉 #马斯克 #商业思维 #财经 #金融 @DOU+上热门 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\n \n  天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是\n \n","listText":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是","text":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":89,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":6,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661278640","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"57585673e98848f3836be7135e11a456","tweetId":"661278640","title":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说\n#美股 #加息#商业思维 #投行 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可是他老爸Glenn ellison。 MIT经济学教授， 是这个人叫Gary的人以前的老板。 Gary是谁。 他可是现任美国证监会主席。 3月份的时候Gary牵线还安排SBF和拜登还举行一次被加密货币玩家称为不寻常的会议。 然后。在这次中期选举中FTX就成为了仅次于索罗斯的第二大民主党捐款人。还有报道说FTX还捐赠了美国商品期货委员会。 这可是负责监管加密货币的机构。 所以大家看到了这里面水有多深了吧？ 很可能这次暴雷还会是一个政治事件。 所以并没有结束。 让我们就拭目以待吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":96,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620999628","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"6e626f48f0fc4687936dbec54513d90b","tweetId":"620999628","title":"币圈暴雷后续（6）： FTX的幕后推手细思极恐\n#加密货币 #商业思维 #财经 #美国 #经济 @DOU+小助手 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我前两天讲日元走势预测的视频里面提到了日本政府说想把日元对美元汇率控制在145以下提出要干预汇市控制日元的贬值。这个干预昨天就正式开始了。 这是1998以来的第一次。 大家看昨天日元冲破了145，然后硬生生的被日本政府给砸下来了。 虽然我认为就算干预汇率只要日本国内还是保持低利率还在控制利率曲线也就是YCC的话， 那日元还是会最终跌破145。但是日本这种干预会对美债，美股，人民币以及A股港股带来连锁的后果。我给大家解释一下。 日本干预汇率怎么做。就是拿美元去买日元。其实不光日本。各个国家干预自己货币贬值都要这么做。 这些美元怎么来。美元现金不多的。 最后肯定就是要去卖自己持有美国国债。卖美债就会继续造成美债收益率提高， 大家看这两天美债收益率就在狂飙。 2年3年的都已经4.2%以上了。 我们国家房贷利率平均也才差不多.比美国国债还低。 这两个风险肯定不在一个等级上对吧。 所以这样搞肯定会加速全球资本换成美金回流美国。 这就造成的美元继续走高大家看 。 美元走高肯定也意味其他国家货币就走低了。比方说大家看人民币今天就破7.1了。美国国债利率被卖美国国债的国家推高后还有一个影响就是。 资本是逐利的国债收益率高了那股市吸引力自然没有这么大了对吧。 所以很多资金最近都从美股撤出来了去了债市。 其中很大部分也直接去了逆回购。现在逆回购利率是3.05%。 去拿这么高利率不比去股市爽啊。 所以昨天美联储就接纳了102个对手放的2.36万亿的逆回购大家看。创历史新高。这也导致美股市场被抽水最近一直跌跌不修走势是这样的。 这种抽水现象也会影响到港股和A股。 也造成的最近港股和A股的大跌。当然中国股市尤其是A股的跌也是有我们自身经济和抗疫的原因。 不过最近强烈的外资出逃也是肯定是其中一个重要因素。 所以大家看出来了吧。 整个世界的资金流现在陷入了一个恶性的循环。 我\n \n","listText":"日本干预汇市带来的连锁反应 我前两天讲日元走势预测的视频里面提到了日本政府说想把日元对美元汇率控制在145以下提出要干预汇市控制日元的贬值。这个干预昨天就正式开始了。 这是1998以来的第一次。 大家看昨天日元冲破了145，然后硬生生的被日本政府给砸下来了。 虽然我认为就算干预汇率只要日本国内还是保持低利率还在控制利率曲线也就是YCC的话， 那日元还是会最终跌破145。但是日本这种干预会对美债，美股，人民币以及A股港股带来连锁的后果。我给大家解释一下。 日本干预汇率怎么做。就是拿美元去买日元。其实不光日本。各个国家干预自己货币贬值都要这么做。 这些美元怎么来。美元现金不多的。 最后肯定就是要去卖自己持有美国国债。卖美债就会继续造成美债收益率提高， 大家看这两天美债收益率就在狂飙。 2年3年的都已经4.2%以上了。 我们国家房贷利率平均也才差不多.比美国国债还低。 这两个风险肯定不在一个等级上对吧。 所以这样搞肯定会加速全球资本换成美金回流美国。 这就造成的美元继续走高大家看 。 美元走高肯定也意味其他国家货币就走低了。比方说大家看人民币今天就破7.1了。美国国债利率被卖美国国债的国家推高后还有一个影响就是。 资本是逐利的国债收益率高了那股市吸引力自然没有这么大了对吧。 所以很多资金最近都从美股撤出来了去了债市。 其中很大部分也直接去了逆回购。现在逆回购利率是3.05%。 去拿这么高利率不比去股市爽啊。 所以昨天美联储就接纳了102个对手放的2.36万亿的逆回购大家看。创历史新高。这也导致美股市场被抽水最近一直跌跌不修走势是这样的。 这种抽水现象也会影响到港股和A股。 也造成的最近港股和A股的大跌。当然中国股市尤其是A股的跌也是有我们自身经济和抗疫的原因。 不过最近强烈的外资出逃也是肯定是其中一个重要因素。 所以大家看出来了吧。 整个世界的资金流现在陷入了一个恶性的循环。 我","text":"日本干预汇市带来的连锁反应 我前两天讲日元走势预测的视频里面提到了日本政府说想把日元对美元汇率控制在145以下提出要干预汇市控制日元的贬值。这个干预昨天就正式开始了。 这是1998以来的第一次。 大家看昨天日元冲破了145，然后硬生生的被日本政府给砸下来了。 虽然我认为就算干预汇率只要日本国内还是保持低利率还在控制利率曲线也就是YCC的话， 那日元还是会最终跌破145。但是日本这种干预会对美债，美股，人民币以及A股港股带来连锁的后果。我给大家解释一下。 日本干预汇率怎么做。就是拿美元去买日元。其实不光日本。各个国家干预自己货币贬值都要这么做。 这些美元怎么来。美元现金不多的。 最后肯定就是要去卖自己持有美国国债。卖美债就会继续造成美债收益率提高， 大家看这两天美债收益率就在狂飙。 2年3年的都已经4.2%以上了。 我们国家房贷利率平均也才差不多.比美国国债还低。 这两个风险肯定不在一个等级上对吧。 所以这样搞肯定会加速全球资本换成美金回流美国。 这就造成的美元继续走高大家看 。 美元走高肯定也意味其他国家货币就走低了。比方说大家看人民币今天就破7.1了。美国国债利率被卖美国国债的国家推高后还有一个影响就是。 资本是逐利的国债收益率高了那股市吸引力自然没有这么大了对吧。 所以很多资金最近都从美股撤出来了去了债市。 其中很大部分也直接去了逆回购。现在逆回购利率是3.05%。 去拿这么高利率不比去股市爽啊。 所以昨天美联储就接纳了102个对手放的2.36万亿的逆回购大家看。创历史新高。这也导致美股市场被抽水最近一直跌跌不修走势是这样的。 这种抽水现象也会影响到港股和A股。 也造成的最近港股和A股的大跌。当然中国股市尤其是A股的跌也是有我们自身经济和抗疫的原因。 不过最近强烈的外资出逃也是肯定是其中一个重要因素。 所以大家看出来了吧。 整个世界的资金流现在陷入了一个恶性的循环。 我","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":59,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661278233","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"6841dea61aec44b580e1ed273cc1f9f4","tweetId":"661278233","title":"日本干预对美债，美元，美股，人民币以及A股，港股的影响\n#美元 #美债 #美股 #日本 #美国","videoUrl":"https://aweme.snssdk.com/aweme/v1/playwm/?video_id=v0300fg10000ccn4skjc77u2e8dn88r0&ratio=720p&line=0","poster":"https://p3-sign.douyinpic.com/tos-cn-p-0015/f1145901b01c4614875b4ed0630f8ae4~c5_300x400.jpeg?x-expires=1665205200&x-signature=bKQGTYdncd0Havb31DR46WP%2Bh5Q%3D&from=3213915784_large&s=PackSourceEnum_DOUYIN_REFLOW&se=false&sc=cover&l=20220924130728010209137035364E9143","shareLink":"https://v.douyin.com/64PDRBH/"},"viewCount":14249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000663","authorId":"9000000000000663","name":"以肉克刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63628df5dc89c97600c23240f5960480","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000663","idStr":"9000000000000663"},"content":"咱们国家会不会干预汇率，如果日本干预的话","text":"咱们国家会不会干预汇率，如果日本干预的话","html":"咱们国家会不会干预汇率，如果日本干预的话"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197194275979280,"gmtCreate":1689172822597,"gmtModify":1689175808478,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"美国6月通胀CPI数据解读","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":124,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197194275979280","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"547023dea1114baeb672a7b5da8eabc6","tweetId":"197194275979280","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/7910b4dd3270835010123669916/D0EaF8taw3MA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d8d252018cdfd137866ff5ae67b662a"},"viewCount":5074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20722186463466","authorId":"20722186463466","name":"爱发红包的虎妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf27be178fbc21279d1959ce5bec4e7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"20722186463466","idStr":"20722186463466"},"content":"期待老师的更多分享[强][强]","text":"期待老师的更多分享[强][强]","html":"期待老师的更多分享[强][强]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}