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clo_2008

clo_2008

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IP属地：天津

28关注

1粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2021-12-02

$纽柯钢铁(NUE)$该入坑吗？

2021-09-04

棒棒的

纳指翻红台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%

2021-09-04

学习[强]

聪明钱闻风而动！新能源革命的又一个爆发领域？

2021-08-31

垃圾了吧？

2021-07-15

分享

@桃李春风益点财:解密：股神巴菲特的四大财富密码

2021-06-24

人人有份大家发财

2021-05-11

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@躬行学堂:个股关注：FSLY财报后大跌28%，是抄底的机会吗？

2021-04-30

必须👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-30

因为坚持价值投资？呵呵

美国传奇投资人跳楼自杀，坚持价值投资数十载

2021-04-17

段落重复为啥子

芯片行业景气度如何跟踪？看台积电的资本开支

2021-03-26

还OK吧？

2021-03-06

凉凉的....

2021-03-05

$理想汽车(LI)$登高望远[捂脸] [捂脸]

2021-02-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@桃李春风益点财:加拿大两大大麻公司Aphria$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$ 和Tilray$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ 宣布2020年12月16日合并。他们的合并对于投资者意味着什么？如何挑选一家优质的大麻股公司？现在上车算早吗？贝瑞研究CEO James Early 专访资深北美分析师Thomas Carroll，一探究竟！

2021-02-19

$苹果(AAPL)$稳如老牛

2021-02-12

左右逢源

Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'

2021-02-12

分享

Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out

2021-02-11

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-10

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-06

$Zoom(ZM)$有起色

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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22:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纳指翻红 台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164806868","media":"格隆汇","summary":"纳指盘初拉升翻红，现涨0.2%，科技股集体拉升，台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%，英伟达(NVDA.US)涨1%，苹果(AAPL.US)、高通(QCOM.US)、谷歌A(GOOGL.US)涨约0.3%...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=106.TSM&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　纳指盘初拉升翻红，现涨0.2%，科技股集体拉升，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a></span><span></span>(TSM.US)涨2.5%，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span><span></span>(NVDA.US)涨1%，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></span><span></span>(AAPL.US)、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a></span><span></span>(QCOM.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>(GOOGL.US)涨约0.3%。</p><p>（文章来源：格隆汇）</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纳指翻红 台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纳指翻红 台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 22:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202109032081410621.html><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>纳指盘初拉升翻红，现涨0.2%，科技股集体拉升，台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%，英伟达(NVDA.US)涨1%，苹果(AAPL.US)、高通(QCOM.US)、谷歌A(GOOGL.US)涨约0.3%。（文章来源：格隆汇）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202109032081410621.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TSM":"台积电","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202109032081410621.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164806868","content_text":"纳指盘初拉升翻红，现涨0.2%，科技股集体拉升，台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%，英伟达(NVDA.US)涨1%，苹果(AAPL.US)、高通(QCOM.US)、谷歌A(GOOGL.US)涨约0.3%。（文章来源：格隆汇）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814064725,"gmtCreate":1630729329967,"gmtModify":1630729329967,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学习[强]&nbsp;","listText":"学习[强]&nbsp;","text":"学习[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814064725","repostId":"2164840520","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164840520","pubTimestamp":1630639626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164840520?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"聪明钱闻风而动！新能源革命的又一个爆发领域？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164840520","media":"格隆汇","summary":"看看机构在推什么？","content":"<p>可以说，过去及未来相当长的一段时间，我们会围绕这个图进行投资，从能源生产端到能源消纳端，再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是，不同的时点，市场关注的方向不同而已。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b2701013b2e0f1fc8cae67aa0be96d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>风电昨天变成了市场大热门，在wind的概念板块中，以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一，整个板块28只个股，17只钉在了涨停板上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdba05a1d348078ae80060dd5cf4e576\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从消息的角度，全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示，将暂停在中国的风机销售业务，并在全球范围内涨价5％。Nauen表示，和许多西方其他整机供应商一样，西门子歌美飒在中国本土整机商崛起后，竞争力已大不如前。因此，中国市场已经不是的西门子歌美飒关注的重点，同时正在考虑放弃的还有俄罗斯和土耳其市场。</p>\n<p>另外一个，中国正在规划风电光伏大基地项目，预计整体总量为400GW，预计有一半的规模将在十四五建成，这是继整县推进之后，新能源国家的又一重大规划，将推动中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>项目建设再上新台阶，预计十四五年均新增装机将从100GW上调到130-150GW，比预期提升30%-50%。其中预计风电光伏各占一半，另有少量光热项目。</p>\n<p>这两个消息也是引爆昨天市场的一个导火索。</p>\n<p>看了下风电的行业情况</p>\n<p>行业空间，未来的世界肯定是可再生能源的，这个肯定没错，而可再生能源的几个种类，水电资源禀赋的天花板很明显，核电生物能等等这些也无法上量，唯二能够大规模上量的，只有光伏和风电。</p>\n<p>风电的行业空间，在2022-2025年大概平均年复合的新增装机容量增速大概是15%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8553d825d3734f02de69b9d6b88f576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>15%按理说是个很高的增速，但是和光伏比下，就稍微低一点，光伏预计未来几年的年复合增速在25%，保守一点，也在20%之上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff58e2dc2dfd383eb7e4e3ab62f252e6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从成本角度来说，陆上风电的平准化度电成本是要低于光伏的，但总安装成本，还是没有光伏下降但快，而且预计未来光伏下降的更快。这些也是市场喜欢光伏，但不喜欢风电的主要几个原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f735d96f16012bc996bcd4eb3487e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d18a9a93342f5702ef6398af8215c02\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>行业格局，从过去两年风机市占率的情况看，这个行业的格局还是比较乱，19年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002202\">金风科技</a>，远景能源，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601615\">明阳智能</a>占比较高，三家占比超过50%。2020年，头部公司又多了一个上海电器。到2021年上半年，行业格局几乎又换一个样子，变成了远景，中车风电，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02208\">金风科技</a>和运达风电。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc769c1a0c1143159890a2a60c62060\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec613039aab219f8b06bc31ad00f3b43\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这样的竞争格局，基本可以说明一件事，这个行业的技术门槛不是很高，公司可能拼的是成本控制，销售，或者渠道等其他因素。</p>\n<p>虽然风电这个行业似乎不如光伏，但是架不住，风电板块的估值低啊。在通威，隆基50倍估值的时候，风电的几个龙头，金风科技18倍，明阳智能23倍。</p>\n<p>然后从产业链的角度来说，风塔和叶片占了主要的成本。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78759df9faf7a3d92a0310b019f4385a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b546de023df94847dff4e21bf20b01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>关于投资主线，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>建议关注两条主线——主机厂和核心零部件</p>\n<p><b>一、主机厂短期业绩弹性大</b></p>\n<p>主机厂短期业绩弹性大。一般主机厂收入确认中当年新签订单约占 25%，去年新签订单占比50%和前年新签订单占比25%。1)从招标量来看，2019年、2020年国内风电机组招标量分别为65.2GW、31.1GW；2)从招标价格来看，以3MW机组为例，2019年6-12月平均价格为3875元/KW、2020年平均价格为3618 元/KW(不含塔筒价格)，而2021年3、4月平均招标价格为2672元/KW，同比2019年6-12月下降31%，同比 2020年下降26%，因此主机厂2021年确认收入中将有75%左右来自2019年、2002年签订的高价订单；3)从零部件价格来看，陆上风电经历2019年、2020年大幅抢装，2021年不再补贴后零部件供应价格也出现一定程度的下降。高价订单确认收入和陆上风电零部件价格下跌带来的剪刀差扩大将提升主机厂的毛利率。建议关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300772\">运达股份</a>、明阳智能和金风科技。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa505d0e88b857fc14545a4a48deb885\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、核心零部件</b></p>\n<p>核心零部件看好市场规模较大、竞争格局良好的细分领域龙头。推荐具备全球竞争优势、领先布局大型化铸件的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603218\">日月股份</a>、行业集中度高的主轴供应商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300443\">金雷股份</a>、国产化程的度低的轴承生产商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300850\">新强联</a>，关注市场空间大、竞争格局较为分散的塔筒龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002531\">天顺风能</a>、叶片供应商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002080\">中材科技</a>。</p>\n<p>风力发电机组主要部件包括叶片、变频器、齿轮箱、电气控制系统、发电机、主轴、轮毂等。因驱动方式的不同，双馈式和直驱式风机零部件有所差异，主要涉及到有无齿 轮箱。以明阳智能 2.0MW 的双馈式风力发电机组风机为例:单台风机售价639万元，成 本 528万元，其中叶片占材料成本比重最高(23.89%)，依次为齿轮箱(18.67%)、变桨 控制系统(17.05%)、发电机(6.67%)。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a77598ee15052bf7beb0aefa5e65d4bd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"769\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n聪明钱闻风而动！新能源革命的又一个爆发领域？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 11:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>可以说，过去及未来相当长的一段时间，我们会围绕这个图进行投资，从能源生产端到能源消纳端，再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是，不同的时点，市场关注的方向不同而已。\n风电昨天变成了市场大热门，在wind的概念板块中，以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一，整个板块28只个股，17只钉在了涨停板上。\n\n从消息的角度，全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace8009badd158895dca20fb627e1735","relate_stocks":{"159875":"新能源","160640":"新能源","399941":"新能源","000941.SH":"新能源"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2164840520","content_text":"可以说，过去及未来相当长的一段时间，我们会围绕这个图进行投资，从能源生产端到能源消纳端，再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是，不同的时点，市场关注的方向不同而已。\n风电昨天变成了市场大热门，在wind的概念板块中，以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一，整个板块28只个股，17只钉在了涨停板上。\n\n从消息的角度，全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示，将暂停在中国的风机销售业务，并在全球范围内涨价5％。Nauen表示，和许多西方其他整机供应商一样，西门子歌美飒在中国本土整机商崛起后，竞争力已大不如前。因此，中国市场已经不是的西门子歌美飒关注的重点，同时正在考虑放弃的还有俄罗斯和土耳其市场。\n另外一个，中国正在规划风电光伏大基地项目，预计整体总量为400GW，预计有一半的规模将在十四五建成，这是继整县推进之后，新能源国家的又一重大规划，将推动中国新能源项目建设再上新台阶，预计十四五年均新增装机将从100GW上调到130-150GW，比预期提升30%-50%。其中预计风电光伏各占一半，另有少量光热项目。\n这两个消息也是引爆昨天市场的一个导火索。\n看了下风电的行业情况\n行业空间，未来的世界肯定是可再生能源的，这个肯定没错，而可再生能源的几个种类，水电资源禀赋的天花板很明显，核电生物能等等这些也无法上量，唯二能够大规模上量的，只有光伏和风电。\n风电的行业空间，在2022-2025年大概平均年复合的新增装机容量增速大概是15%\n\n15%按理说是个很高的增速，但是和光伏比下，就稍微低一点，光伏预计未来几年的年复合增速在25%，保守一点，也在20%之上。\n\n从成本角度来说，陆上风电的平准化度电成本是要低于光伏的，但总安装成本，还是没有光伏下降但快，而且预计未来光伏下降的更快。这些也是市场喜欢光伏，但不喜欢风电的主要几个原因。\n\n\n行业格局，从过去两年风机市占率的情况看，这个行业的格局还是比较乱，19年金风科技，远景能源，明阳智能占比较高，三家占比超过50%。2020年，头部公司又多了一个上海电器。到2021年上半年，行业格局几乎又换一个样子，变成了远景，中车风电，金风科技和运达风电。\n\n\n这样的竞争格局，基本可以说明一件事，这个行业的技术门槛不是很高，公司可能拼的是成本控制，销售，或者渠道等其他因素。\n虽然风电这个行业似乎不如光伏，但是架不住，风电板块的估值低啊。在通威，隆基50倍估值的时候，风电的几个龙头，金风科技18倍，明阳智能23倍。\n然后从产业链的角度来说，风塔和叶片占了主要的成本。\n\n\n关于投资主线，浙商证券建议关注两条主线——主机厂和核心零部件\n一、主机厂短期业绩弹性大\n主机厂短期业绩弹性大。一般主机厂收入确认中当年新签订单约占 25%，去年新签订单占比50%和前年新签订单占比25%。1)从招标量来看，2019年、2020年国内风电机组招标量分别为65.2GW、31.1GW；2)从招标价格来看，以3MW机组为例，2019年6-12月平均价格为3875元/KW、2020年平均价格为3618 元/KW(不含塔筒价格)，而2021年3、4月平均招标价格为2672元/KW，同比2019年6-12月下降31%，同比 2020年下降26%，因此主机厂2021年确认收入中将有75%左右来自2019年、2002年签订的高价订单；3)从零部件价格来看，陆上风电经历2019年、2020年大幅抢装，2021年不再补贴后零部件供应价格也出现一定程度的下降。高价订单确认收入和陆上风电零部件价格下跌带来的剪刀差扩大将提升主机厂的毛利率。建议关注运达股份、明阳智能和金风科技。\n\n二、核心零部件\n核心零部件看好市场规模较大、竞争格局良好的细分领域龙头。推荐具备全球竞争优势、领先布局大型化铸件的日月股份、行业集中度高的主轴供应商金雷股份、国产化程的度低的轴承生产商新强联，关注市场空间大、竞争格局较为分散的塔筒龙头天顺风能、叶片供应商中材科技。\n风力发电机组主要部件包括叶片、变频器、齿轮箱、电气控制系统、发电机、主轴、轮毂等。因驱动方式的不同，双馈式和直驱式风机零部件有所差异，主要涉及到有无齿 轮箱。以明阳智能 2.0MW 的双馈式风力发电机组风机为例:单台风机售价639万元，成 本 528万元，其中叶片占材料成本比重最高(23.89%)，依次为齿轮箱(18.67%)、变桨 控制系统(17.05%)、发电机(6.67%)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818307424,"gmtCreate":1630374104068,"gmtModify":1704959298734,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"垃圾了吧？","listText":"垃圾了吧？","text":"垃圾了吧？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df377c452f3cf47dc3fea366d79cb246","width":"750","height":"2117"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818307424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":147205190,"gmtCreate":1626358178010,"gmtModify":1626358178010,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分享","listText":"分享","text":"分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147205190","repostId":"149781351","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":149781351,"gmtCreate":1625748818373,"gmtModify":1626531330237,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"解密：股神巴菲特的四大财富密码","htmlText":"摘要：清洁工一生清贫，身后竟留下800万美元遗产，他的生财之道是什么？本金不多，也想在股市分一杯羹？空有本金，却担心股市风险太大不敢下手？如何手持少量资金科学投资，做到以钱生钱？【注意！文末有福利！】本文聚焦：●&nbsp;PART 1：四大财富密码●&nbsp;&nbsp;PART 2：怎么选股票？什么样的股票值得入？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流。你身边的清洁工很可能是隐形富豪？！那他/她怕是拿了罗纳德·里德的剧本。你可能会问，罗纳德·里德何许人也？不同于含着金汤勺出生的富N代们，他在军队服过役，在加油站打过工，也当过清洁工，只是平平无奇一介草根。但是，重点来了，直至其92岁去世，这位清洁工身后竟然留下了将近800万美元的遗产——他把其中120万美元捐赠给了当地一家图书馆，另有480万美元捐给了伯瑞特波罗纪念医院，因为过去他常在那吃早餐。明明这份人生履历看起来平平无奇，里德究竟是如何凭借微薄的薪水成为千万富翁的呢？PART 1：四大财富密码1.花在刀刃上的钱里德平时很“抠门”，会把赚来的每一分钱都攒起来：●&nbsp;外套坏了就用别针固定，一件新的都不舍得买；●甚至最后一辆车还是辆二手车——一辆老掉牙的丰田雅力士；●还常常宁愿把车停到几个街区外再走到目的地，不愿付停车费。最奢侈的爱好就是偶尔去当地的一家咖啡店吃早餐，不过有一回他去结账，却发现别人已经帮他买单了，因为那人觉得他看起来像是付不起的样子......毕竟看看他的工作、衣服、车、房子，谁能想到他是这座城市最富有的人之一呢2.只买对的不买贵的那他究竟是如何实现财富增长的呢？图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者这要从他另一个爱好，炒股说起。里德通常只买他熟悉和了解的股票，这对于投资者来说应该是基本操作，且他买的都是蓝筹股，这种股票有两个特点：●&nbsp;股息高●&nbsp;","listText":"摘要：清洁工一生清贫，身后竟留下800万美元遗产，他的生财之道是什么？本金不多，也想在股市分一杯羹？空有本金，却担心股市风险太大不敢下手？如何手持少量资金科学投资，做到以钱生钱？【注意！文末有福利！】本文聚焦：●&nbsp;PART 1：四大财富密码●&nbsp;&nbsp;PART 2：怎么选股票？什么样的股票值得入？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流。你身边的清洁工很可能是隐形富豪？！那他/她怕是拿了罗纳德·里德的剧本。你可能会问，罗纳德·里德何许人也？不同于含着金汤勺出生的富N代们，他在军队服过役，在加油站打过工，也当过清洁工，只是平平无奇一介草根。但是，重点来了，直至其92岁去世，这位清洁工身后竟然留下了将近800万美元的遗产——他把其中120万美元捐赠给了当地一家图书馆，另有480万美元捐给了伯瑞特波罗纪念医院，因为过去他常在那吃早餐。明明这份人生履历看起来平平无奇，里德究竟是如何凭借微薄的薪水成为千万富翁的呢？PART 1：四大财富密码1.花在刀刃上的钱里德平时很“抠门”，会把赚来的每一分钱都攒起来：●&nbsp;外套坏了就用别针固定，一件新的都不舍得买；●甚至最后一辆车还是辆二手车——一辆老掉牙的丰田雅力士；●还常常宁愿把车停到几个街区外再走到目的地，不愿付停车费。最奢侈的爱好就是偶尔去当地的一家咖啡店吃早餐，不过有一回他去结账，却发现别人已经帮他买单了，因为那人觉得他看起来像是付不起的样子......毕竟看看他的工作、衣服、车、房子，谁能想到他是这座城市最富有的人之一呢2.只买对的不买贵的那他究竟是如何实现财富增长的呢？图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者这要从他另一个爱好，炒股说起。里德通常只买他熟悉和了解的股票，这对于投资者来说应该是基本操作，且他买的都是蓝筹股，这种股票有两个特点：●&nbsp;股息高●&nbsp;","text":"摘要：清洁工一生清贫，身后竟留下800万美元遗产，他的生财之道是什么？本金不多，也想在股市分一杯羹？空有本金，却担心股市风险太大不敢下手？如何手持少量资金科学投资，做到以钱生钱？【注意！文末有福利！】本文聚焦：● PART 1：四大财富密码● PART 2：怎么选股票？什么样的股票值得入？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流。你身边的清洁工很可能是隐形富豪？！那他/她怕是拿了罗纳德·里德的剧本。你可能会问，罗纳德·里德何许人也？不同于含着金汤勺出生的富N代们，他在军队服过役，在加油站打过工，也当过清洁工，只是平平无奇一介草根。但是，重点来了，直至其92岁去世，这位清洁工身后竟然留下了将近800万美元的遗产——他把其中120万美元捐赠给了当地一家图书馆，另有480万美元捐给了伯瑞特波罗纪念医院，因为过去他常在那吃早餐。明明这份人生履历看起来平平无奇，里德究竟是如何凭借微薄的薪水成为千万富翁的呢？PART 1：四大财富密码1.花在刀刃上的钱里德平时很“抠门”，会把赚来的每一分钱都攒起来：● 外套坏了就用别针固定，一件新的都不舍得买；●甚至最后一辆车还是辆二手车——一辆老掉牙的丰田雅力士；●还常常宁愿把车停到几个街区外再走到目的地，不愿付停车费。最奢侈的爱好就是偶尔去当地的一家咖啡店吃早餐，不过有一回他去结账，却发现别人已经帮他买单了，因为那人觉得他看起来像是付不起的样子......毕竟看看他的工作、衣服、车、房子，谁能想到他是这座城市最富有的人之一呢2.只买对的不买贵的那他究竟是如何实现财富增长的呢？图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者这要从他另一个爱好，炒股说起。里德通常只买他熟悉和了解的股票，这对于投资者来说应该是基本操作，且他买的都是蓝筹股，这种股票有两个特点：● 股息高●","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5ed34bb360e0b6f94ad8087137eed3","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77f6a51969063769cbcd1be1f1a1c9a","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce288708279d47809d8b0eab0deccc7b","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149781351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"您好，您的福利来啦！欢迎关注贝瑞研究老虎空间站，获取更多北美视角下的投资干货！我们的口号是：保护血汗钱！","text":"您好，您的福利来啦！欢迎关注贝瑞研究老虎空间站，获取更多北美视角下的投资干货！我们的口号是：保护血汗钱！","html":"您好，您的福利来啦！欢迎关注贝瑞研究老虎空间站，获取更多北美视角下的投资干货！我们的口号是：保护血汗钱！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126090883,"gmtCreate":1624535863342,"gmtModify":1624535863342,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"人人有份 大家发财","listText":"人人有份 大家发财","text":"人人有份 大家发财","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daf7cb9ee807c29fd69f54e1e3ebd73f","width":"828","height":"1583"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126090883","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193960873,"gmtCreate":1620745527992,"gmtModify":1620745527992,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193960873","repostId":"107769455","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":107769455,"gmtCreate":1620540186277,"gmtModify":1620540186277,"author":{"id":"3472529065899309","authorId":"3472529065899309","name":"躬行学堂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25ebe24e2fe38bb8fb8166727ef2b97e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"个股关注：FSLY财报后大跌28%，是抄底的机会吗？","htmlText":"今天我们来看看📉跌的比较惨的一支票<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLY\">$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$</a>。它因为财报不好大跌，群里有许多小伙伴就问我能不能抄底？先来看一下它的技术形态：工具之前给出了一个看涨的2B形态， 黄框区域的趋势并没有被突破，是一个失败的看涨2B形态。再来看看看跌的2B形态，这也是明显跌破了的：接下来再看看头肩顶形态（看跌），一个小小的头肩顶，严格意义上也不算是，但是这个小形态也是找出来了。扩散形态的下沿也是跌破了，继续往下走。如果是做短线交易的小伙伴，一般这种形态就要暂时回避一下。资金方面，大跌的这一天，是有资金净流入的，有将近2200万美元的资金净流入，同样在周五也有6000万美元的资金流入。过去一段时间的资金流入，也不代表未来持续的资金流入，所以接下来我们要关注一些重要的支撑。在6个月内都是新低，所以在12月内的图里，它是跌破了一个比较重要的支撑42.6-43附近。如果之后能回到这个区间，调整调整是有机会往上走的。如果是继续往下行，下方比较强的支撑在35.7附近。所以目前我个人的看法是，不着急捡它，因为它还没有完全筑底，想博反弹可能有机会，但是想拿久一点的话，目前不合适。🌟如果大家对其他个股的资金流向和价格形态感兴趣，欢迎评论或私信我交流讨论。⚠️本文所提及的个股均为躬行量价模型的筛选，并非买卖建议，躬行量价模型也是致力于分享重要的交易数据，并非推荐个股，交易的决定取决于对数据的理解。⚠️股市有风险，投资需谨慎！希望今天的内容对你有帮助，你的点赞、收藏及分享是对我莫大的支持❤️","listText":"今天我们来看看📉跌的比较惨的一支票<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLY\">$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$</a>。它因为财报不好大跌，群里有许多小伙伴就问我能不能抄底？先来看一下它的技术形态：工具之前给出了一个看涨的2B形态， 黄框区域的趋势并没有被突破，是一个失败的看涨2B形态。再来看看看跌的2B形态，这也是明显跌破了的：接下来再看看头肩顶形态（看跌），一个小小的头肩顶，严格意义上也不算是，但是这个小形态也是找出来了。扩散形态的下沿也是跌破了，继续往下走。如果是做短线交易的小伙伴，一般这种形态就要暂时回避一下。资金方面，大跌的这一天，是有资金净流入的，有将近2200万美元的资金净流入，同样在周五也有6000万美元的资金流入。过去一段时间的资金流入，也不代表未来持续的资金流入，所以接下来我们要关注一些重要的支撑。在6个月内都是新低，所以在12月内的图里，它是跌破了一个比较重要的支撑42.6-43附近。如果之后能回到这个区间，调整调整是有机会往上走的。如果是继续往下行，下方比较强的支撑在35.7附近。所以目前我个人的看法是，不着急捡它，因为它还没有完全筑底，想博反弹可能有机会，但是想拿久一点的话，目前不合适。🌟如果大家对其他个股的资金流向和价格形态感兴趣，欢迎评论或私信我交流讨论。⚠️本文所提及的个股均为躬行量价模型的筛选，并非买卖建议，躬行量价模型也是致力于分享重要的交易数据，并非推荐个股，交易的决定取决于对数据的理解。⚠️股市有风险，投资需谨慎！希望今天的内容对你有帮助，你的点赞、收藏及分享是对我莫大的支持❤️","text":"今天我们来看看📉跌的比较惨的一支票$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$。它因为财报不好大跌，群里有许多小伙伴就问我能不能抄底？先来看一下它的技术形态：工具之前给出了一个看涨的2B形态， 黄框区域的趋势并没有被突破，是一个失败的看涨2B形态。再来看看看跌的2B形态，这也是明显跌破了的：接下来再看看头肩顶形态（看跌），一个小小的头肩顶，严格意义上也不算是，但是这个小形态也是找出来了。扩散形态的下沿也是跌破了，继续往下走。如果是做短线交易的小伙伴，一般这种形态就要暂时回避一下。资金方面，大跌的这一天，是有资金净流入的，有将近2200万美元的资金净流入，同样在周五也有6000万美元的资金流入。过去一段时间的资金流入，也不代表未来持续的资金流入，所以接下来我们要关注一些重要的支撑。在6个月内都是新低，所以在12月内的图里，它是跌破了一个比较重要的支撑42.6-43附近。如果之后能回到这个区间，调整调整是有机会往上走的。如果是继续往下行，下方比较强的支撑在35.7附近。所以目前我个人的看法是，不着急捡它，因为它还没有完全筑底，想博反弹可能有机会，但是想拿久一点的话，目前不合适。🌟如果大家对其他个股的资金流向和价格形态感兴趣，欢迎评论或私信我交流讨论。⚠️本文所提及的个股均为躬行量价模型的筛选，并非买卖建议，躬行量价模型也是致力于分享重要的交易数据，并非推荐个股，交易的决定取决于对数据的理解。⚠️股市有风险，投资需谨慎！希望今天的内容对你有帮助，你的点赞、收藏及分享是对我莫大的支持❤️","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cc391792cc349024fde94cce3b68f2","width":"688","height":"431"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d66cf94e65f9e3374c7a8a1f6ec0b18","width":"688","height":"431"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c909139c675e28d64d29fe649dc64c1","width":"688","height":"427"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107769455","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":103974997,"gmtCreate":1619745686119,"gmtModify":1619745686119,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"必须👍","listText":"必须👍","text":"必须👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103974997","repostId":"1186572745","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":103972486,"gmtCreate":1619745635645,"gmtModify":1619745635645,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为坚持价值投资？ 呵呵","listText":"因为坚持价值投资？ 呵呵","text":"因为坚持价值投资？ 呵呵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103972486","repostId":"1146507377","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146507377","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1619687381,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146507377?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 17:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国传奇投资人跳楼自杀，坚持价值投资数十载","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146507377","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"沃克斯是深度价值投资者，其管理的基金鼎盛时期规模曾达200亿美元。","content":"<p>作者：俞涛</p><p>据媒体报道，本周一下午，著名价值投资者沃克斯(Charles&nbsp;de&nbsp;Vaulx)被发现自杀身亡。这一消息令资产管理业界震惊不已。</p><p>纽约警方向巴伦周刊证实，沃克斯从曼哈顿一幢大楼的十层纵身跃下。</p><p>沃克斯是International&nbsp;value&nbsp;Advisors（以下简称IVA）的联合创始人。3月10日，IVA突然宣布将对基金进行清算并停止业务，并已于4月19日完成清算。</p><p>享年59岁的沃克斯是两个孩子的父亲，同时也是一名坚定价值投资者。在沃克斯漫长的职业生涯中， 他青睐投资被低估和冷门的股票，并且从未偏离过自己的深度价值投资方法。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb72c1111e6804b28f2b1622933fe612\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>但也因如此，其管理的基金在过去十年的收益率，大幅跑输市场上的成长型股票。</p><p>沃克斯和其他三名合伙人在2008年创立International value Advisors（以下简称IVA）之初，他们的价值投资方法在金融危机期间非常受欢迎。并且很快就吸引了大量资金。</p><p>根据晨星的数据，截至2010年底，IVA国际（IVIQX）已积累了23亿美元的资产，而IVA全球（IVWIX）已累计积累93亿美元。IVA在鼎盛时期管理的资产超过200亿美元，但截至去年底，IVA所管理的资金规模已缩减至8.63亿美元，有两位联合创始人也先后离开。</p><p>这位来自法国的基金经理，曾在2001年与其导师Jea Marie Eveillard共同被评为晨星公司的年度国际基金经理。2006年，他再次获得了该奖项的亚军。</p><p>其导师Eveillard也表示了对沃克斯的缅怀：我会永远怀念这个1987年在SoGen基金需要支持时，一直帮助我的实习生。沃克斯之后在First Eagle Funds的工作也一如既往。</p><p>First Eagle Fund的官网也表达了对沃克斯的致敬，他们表示：沃克斯在投资管理行业，和在那些与他合作过的人身上，留下了不可磨灭的印记。他也是First Eagle Fund价值团队的主要贡献者。</p><p>晨星公司的高级分析师Gregg Wolper如此形容沃克斯：</p><blockquote>他践行着自下而上的投资策略，他对公司进行深入的研究，并对这些公司的价值热情辩护。全球积累了十分高企的债务水平，无论是公司还是个人，而这些困扰着他。另外，市场上公司的估值都很高，使得沃克斯这一价值投资者在股市疯狂上涨时仍坚持持有现金。他之所以坚持这点，并不是因为他固执。而是他认为，这是保护股东们免受亏损的最佳投资方式。这是他在行使他的义务。</blockquote><p>但正是这些理念，令他赢得了业界的尊重。</p><p>GoodHaven资本的基金经理Larry Pitkowsky也称：</p><blockquote>Valux是一位有思想、有才华、纪律严明、规避风险的投资者，他同时也是众多资产管理公司的朋友。</blockquote><p>“沃克斯纵身一跃，归于自己的宿命，但价值已开始回归”，巴伦周刊如此写到。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国传奇投资人跳楼自杀，坚持价值投资数十载\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-04-29 17:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：俞涛据媒体报道，本周一下午，著名价值投资者沃克斯(Charles de Vaulx)被发现自杀身亡。这一消息令资产管理业界震惊不已。纽约警方向巴伦周刊证实，沃克斯从曼哈顿一幢大楼的十层纵身跃下。沃克斯是International value Advisors（以下简称IVA）的联合创始人。3月10日，IVA突然宣布将对基金进行清算并停止业务，并已于4月19日完成清算。享年59岁的沃克斯是两个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2267b427fdb940c6c89c4eba2323002d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146507377","content_text":"作者：俞涛据媒体报道，本周一下午，著名价值投资者沃克斯(Charles de Vaulx)被发现自杀身亡。这一消息令资产管理业界震惊不已。纽约警方向巴伦周刊证实，沃克斯从曼哈顿一幢大楼的十层纵身跃下。沃克斯是International value Advisors（以下简称IVA）的联合创始人。3月10日，IVA突然宣布将对基金进行清算并停止业务，并已于4月19日完成清算。享年59岁的沃克斯是两个孩子的父亲，同时也是一名坚定价值投资者。在沃克斯漫长的职业生涯中， 他青睐投资被低估和冷门的股票，并且从未偏离过自己的深度价值投资方法。但也因如此，其管理的基金在过去十年的收益率，大幅跑输市场上的成长型股票。沃克斯和其他三名合伙人在2008年创立International value Advisors（以下简称IVA）之初，他们的价值投资方法在金融危机期间非常受欢迎。并且很快就吸引了大量资金。根据晨星的数据，截至2010年底，IVA国际（IVIQX）已积累了23亿美元的资产，而IVA全球（IVWIX）已累计积累93亿美元。IVA在鼎盛时期管理的资产超过200亿美元，但截至去年底，IVA所管理的资金规模已缩减至8.63亿美元，有两位联合创始人也先后离开。这位来自法国的基金经理，曾在2001年与其导师Jea Marie Eveillard共同被评为晨星公司的年度国际基金经理。2006年，他再次获得了该奖项的亚军。其导师Eveillard也表示了对沃克斯的缅怀：我会永远怀念这个1987年在SoGen基金需要支持时，一直帮助我的实习生。沃克斯之后在First Eagle Funds的工作也一如既往。First Eagle Fund的官网也表达了对沃克斯的致敬，他们表示：沃克斯在投资管理行业，和在那些与他合作过的人身上，留下了不可磨灭的印记。他也是First Eagle Fund价值团队的主要贡献者。晨星公司的高级分析师Gregg Wolper如此形容沃克斯：他践行着自下而上的投资策略，他对公司进行深入的研究，并对这些公司的价值热情辩护。全球积累了十分高企的债务水平，无论是公司还是个人，而这些困扰着他。另外，市场上公司的估值都很高，使得沃克斯这一价值投资者在股市疯狂上涨时仍坚持持有现金。他之所以坚持这点，并不是因为他固执。而是他认为，这是保护股东们免受亏损的最佳投资方式。这是他在行使他的义务。但正是这些理念，令他赢得了业界的尊重。GoodHaven资本的基金经理Larry Pitkowsky也称：Valux是一位有思想、有才华、纪律严明、规避风险的投资者，他同时也是众多资产管理公司的朋友。“沃克斯纵身一跃，归于自己的宿命，但价值已开始回归”，巴伦周刊如此写到。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370408469,"gmtCreate":1618617261151,"gmtModify":1618617261151,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"段落重复 为啥子","listText":"段落重复 为啥子","text":"段落重复 为啥子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370408469","repostId":"1194421768","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194421768","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1618566364,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194421768?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 17:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"芯片行业景气度如何跟踪？看台积电的资本开支","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194421768","media":"Wind万得","summary":"1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。","content":"<p><b>核心观点</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。</p>\n<p>2、原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，它们的盈利有明显的提升，而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应。</p>\n<p>3、台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划。它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往伴随着行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透，第一波是PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，第三次就是现在。</p>\n<p>4、台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪半导体行业景气度的指标。</p>\n<p>5、智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，对应的单车半导体新增需求量至少在800美金，甚至可以高达1800-2000美金以上。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>01&nbsp;<b>全球缺芯，最受益的是哪些环节？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>站在当前的时点，全球芯片缺成一片，中国的芯片行业从年报预告和一季报预告来看，进入了非常强的爆发期，资产价格和行业基本面出现了明显的背离，行业龙头目前具备非常强的配置价值。</p>\n<p>产能的持续紧张是大家最关心的一个问题，这要从供需两方面看：</p>\n<p><b>从供给来看，过去三年全球的产能扩张并不顺利，由于中美的贸易问题和全球的疫情，导致全球的供给端连续三年下修；从需求看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，</b>包括手机需求，汽车的智能化，以及矿机等等。因此整个产业链出现了缺货的情况。</p>\n<p>从上游的核心原材料，到中游代工，到下游封装测试，全面出现了吃紧、涨价，我们重点要关注产业链价格传导的能力，<b>原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，</b>因为现在是产能为王，所以它们的盈利有明显的提升。而<b>设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应，</b>对于有议价能力的公司，我们也能在接下来的财报中看到他们的盈利能力提升。今年对大部分半导体公司来说，迎来的是从量到价到盈利能力的三击。半导体的估值经过了前一段时间的下跌消化，如果接下来迎来环比超预期的业绩，半导体在当下时点是非常值得关注的。</p>\n<p>从各环节来看，包括设计公司、重资产的代工、封装测试，以及材料和设备，<b>目前最缺的是在材料端和产能端。</b>这一轮半导体的高景气，最受益的是晶圆代工厂，具有自有产能的IDM厂商，以及配套的材料厂商，还有封测环节，这几个环节目前处于卖方市场，他们具备很强的议价能力和订单挑选能力，由于高毛利的订单做不过来，低毛利和不愿接受涨价的订单，就会面临调整，<b>由于产能利用率满载和结构改善，重资产的代工厂会出现明显的毛利率上升，</b>当然营收端也会有很不错的表现。</p>\n<p>着眼全球，台积电是最受益的，它现在处于绝对的强势地位，包括中芯国际（00981）、华虹（01347）、华润微，以及具备IDM产能的闻泰的安世、扬杰等等，这些公司都处于产能利用率满载的阶段。封测领域包括长电、晶方、通富、华天等等，也都是满载状态。材料环节，日系、韩系、美系的材料厂商是最为受益的，现在最缺的两个环节，一个是IC载板，尤其是用在高性能运算的CPU的IC载板，另一个是硅片。在材料短缺的情况下，国产化的进度会有加速，尤其是在当前的国际形势下，硅片、载板、光刻胶等会有国产化加速。相应的公司包括光刻胶领域的彤程新材、晶瑞股份以及上海新阳，IC载板领域包括兴森、深南，硅片领域包括沪硅、立昂微等。</p>\n<p><b>设计环节会出现分化，</b>有人受益有人受损，<b>小厂家是受损的一方，</b>由于是散单，在产能紧张的情况下，代工厂对它们的涨价力度会更大，现在绝大部分的上市公司，它们在各自的细分领域都是做到了龙头的地位，至少行业前三、前五的位置，<b>对于行业龙头来说，如果能顺利把材料成本的上涨转嫁给客户，由于还有固定成本的存在，它的毛利率肯定会上升，</b>因此它们的盈利能力也会有比较明显的提升，其中韦尔股份是最为受益的，也包括卓胜微、兆易，刚刚讲的IDM的闻泰、华润微等。</p>\n<p>另外一类就是Driver IC，驱动芯片这一块也是缺货最为严峻的环节，包括几家做驱动芯片的公司，晶丰明源、明微电子，以及韦尔股份，现在也都是处在一个毛利率大幅度提升的状况。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>02&nbsp;<b>台积电的资本开支规划是行业景气度的最好跟踪指标</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>剩下还有一个板块是设备，设备相对来讲属于更后周期一些。因为在产能不足的情况下，所有的厂家今年都在陆续恢复甚至上调自己的资本开支，<b>台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月2号左右再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划，</b>在这个作用之下，整个设备环节也是会被拉动一波。如果国内这些代工厂跟随龙头台积电，有一个资本开支的复苏和上调，国内的国产化设备肯定也会受益，包括北方华创、中微、精测、至纯、华峰测控。</p>\n<p>我们在去年的报告中做了一张图，就是台积电的资本开支和它的收入、股价的对应。我们复盘台积电过去二十多年的历史，<b>它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，</b>背后往往是伴随着一个行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透。<b>第一波，PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，</b>分别发生在2001年到2003年，2010年到2012年这两个时间段。<b>第三次资本开支的跃升其实就是发生现在，</b>在2018年、2019年之前，它平均每年的资本开支大概在90到100亿美金，在2019年，它把这个数字上调了50%，上调到了150亿美金，此后，又连续上调了三次，现在基本上它的资本开支规划三年1000亿，也就是说比之前多了三倍。</p>\n<p>我们认为台积电的资本开支上调一定是它看到有这么多的新增需求，未来至少五到十年间，能够看到这么多新增需求来匹配这么多的产能，它才会作出这个决定，我觉得<b>台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪指标，</b>这一轮全球半导体之所以反弹，也是发生在台积电给了这么积极的资本开支的指引之后。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>03&nbsp;<b>需求来自哪些方面？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>需求端最大的几块来自于HPC、高性能运算以及汽车的智能化和新能源化。简单点讲，<b>现在的智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，</b>它对应着半导体新增的需求量，8寸硅片，<b>新能源车这块的增量基本上都在800美金以上，</b>相当于现在高端8寸硅片的报价。一部车至少需要一片，智能化一部车需要一个算力最先进的电脑和相应的存储和传感器，一<b>部具备智能化的新能源车整个单车的新增需求，</b>我们只讲增量需求，<b>大概在1800到2000美金以上。</b>这个增量如果迅速开始渗透是相当巨大的一个数字，现有的产能肯定是没有办法去满足这块的新增需求。正是因为有越来越多的造车新势力，包括特斯拉这种厂家开始在这块发力，本轮汽车缺芯是历史上罕见的情况。</p>\n<p>HPC这一块相对来说比较难量化，因为有很多东西其实不是在一个公开透明的市场，比如说挖矿，但我们从另外一个观测的指标，显卡的销量和显卡的二手加价的幅度来看，可见一斑。基本上现在英伟达307的显卡都需要加价30%以上，甚至有的系列需要加价70%以上，这中间很多原因就是大量显卡被用于挖矿。</p>\n<p><b>HPC这一块的需求，一块是矿机，另外一块是服务器的复苏，</b>今年开始，英特尔的新平台，AMD的新平台从下半年开始有一个更新换代，这会带来服务器这一块增量需求的一波复苏，同样对于整个高端制程会产生非常大的缺口。</p>\n<p>还是要重申一点，行业需求有多好或者持续性大概有多久，我觉得看龙头的动作是最直观的。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>04&nbsp;<b>一季报的业绩高增长会不会有去年低基数的影响？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>传统的制造业，比如说被动元器件、面板，包括消费电子在内，去年因为疫情直接影响了开工，在业绩上属于低基数，</b>在这个低基数的作用下，这次一季报这些环节的增速都会非常亮眼。</p>\n<p><b>芯片板块其实相对来说去年基数的影响更小一些，</b>为什么？去年一季度是疫情发生的第一个季度，芯片环节，尤其是设计公司，他们的订单基本都在代工厂，中芯、台积电等等，在这些代工厂高度自动化的条件下去生产、运转，我们在去年一季度的时候，当时面对市场的担忧，我们把十几家上市公司拉出来聊过，当时基本上很多公司都是处在高产能利用率运转的状态。因此，去年对于芯片公司、半导体公司来讲，疫情的影响是更小一些的，或者去年因为全球担心疫情对供应链的干扰，去年一季度很多公司都是加大马力在运转。所以我们看到以韦尔股份为例，去年一季度它的收入增速是44%，在2019年四季度的基础上，增速还在增加，归母净利润的增速由于并表的影响同比增长了800%，也有接近4.5亿左右的单季度净利润，环比2019年的四季度还在继续往上。对于这种公司来讲，去年基数的影响其实不大，他们去年并不算低基数，我觉得这一波更多还是体现在他们自身的新产品以及整个行业的高景气带来的订单高速增长和盈利能力的增加。</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n芯片行业景气度如何跟踪？看台积电的资本开支\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-16 17:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>核心观点</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。</p>\n<p>2、原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，它们的盈利有明显的提升，而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应。</p>\n<p>3、台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划。它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往伴随着行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透，第一波是PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，第三次就是现在。</p>\n<p>4、台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪半导体行业景气度的指标。</p>\n<p>5、智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，对应的单车半导体新增需求量至少在800美金，甚至可以高达1800-2000美金以上。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>01&nbsp;<b>全球缺芯，最受益的是哪些环节？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>站在当前的时点，全球芯片缺成一片，中国的芯片行业从年报预告和一季报预告来看，进入了非常强的爆发期，资产价格和行业基本面出现了明显的背离，行业龙头目前具备非常强的配置价值。</p>\n<p>产能的持续紧张是大家最关心的一个问题，这要从供需两方面看：</p>\n<p><b>从供给来看，过去三年全球的产能扩张并不顺利，由于中美的贸易问题和全球的疫情，导致全球的供给端连续三年下修；从需求看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，</b>包括手机需求，汽车的智能化，以及矿机等等。因此整个产业链出现了缺货的情况。</p>\n<p>从上游的核心原材料，到中游代工，到下游封装测试，全面出现了吃紧、涨价，我们重点要关注产业链价格传导的能力，<b>原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，</b>因为现在是产能为王，所以它们的盈利有明显的提升。而<b>设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应，</b>对于有议价能力的公司，我们也能在接下来的财报中看到他们的盈利能力提升。今年对大部分半导体公司来说，迎来的是从量到价到盈利能力的三击。半导体的估值经过了前一段时间的下跌消化，如果接下来迎来环比超预期的业绩，半导体在当下时点是非常值得关注的。</p>\n<p>从各环节来看，包括设计公司、重资产的代工、封装测试，以及材料和设备，<b>目前最缺的是在材料端和产能端。</b>这一轮半导体的高景气，最受益的是晶圆代工厂，具有自有产能的IDM厂商，以及配套的材料厂商，还有封测环节，这几个环节目前处于卖方市场，他们具备很强的议价能力和订单挑选能力，由于高毛利的订单做不过来，低毛利和不愿接受涨价的订单，就会面临调整，<b>由于产能利用率满载和结构改善，重资产的代工厂会出现明显的毛利率上升，</b>当然营收端也会有很不错的表现。</p>\n<p>着眼全球，台积电是最受益的，它现在处于绝对的强势地位，包括中芯国际（00981）、华虹（01347）、华润微，以及具备IDM产能的闻泰的安世、扬杰等等，这些公司都处于产能利用率满载的阶段。封测领域包括长电、晶方、通富、华天等等，也都是满载状态。材料环节，日系、韩系、美系的材料厂商是最为受益的，现在最缺的两个环节，一个是IC载板，尤其是用在高性能运算的CPU的IC载板，另一个是硅片。在材料短缺的情况下，国产化的进度会有加速，尤其是在当前的国际形势下，硅片、载板、光刻胶等会有国产化加速。相应的公司包括光刻胶领域的彤程新材、晶瑞股份以及上海新阳，IC载板领域包括兴森、深南，硅片领域包括沪硅、立昂微等。</p>\n<p><b>设计环节会出现分化，</b>有人受益有人受损，<b>小厂家是受损的一方，</b>由于是散单，在产能紧张的情况下，代工厂对它们的涨价力度会更大，现在绝大部分的上市公司，它们在各自的细分领域都是做到了龙头的地位，至少行业前三、前五的位置，<b>对于行业龙头来说，如果能顺利把材料成本的上涨转嫁给客户，由于还有固定成本的存在，它的毛利率肯定会上升，</b>因此它们的盈利能力也会有比较明显的提升，其中韦尔股份是最为受益的，也包括卓胜微、兆易，刚刚讲的IDM的闻泰、华润微等。</p>\n<p>另外一类就是Driver IC，驱动芯片这一块也是缺货最为严峻的环节，包括几家做驱动芯片的公司，晶丰明源、明微电子，以及韦尔股份，现在也都是处在一个毛利率大幅度提升的状况。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>02&nbsp;<b>台积电的资本开支规划是行业景气度的最好跟踪指标</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>剩下还有一个板块是设备，设备相对来讲属于更后周期一些。因为在产能不足的情况下，所有的厂家今年都在陆续恢复甚至上调自己的资本开支，<b>台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月2号左右再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划，</b>在这个作用之下，整个设备环节也是会被拉动一波。如果国内这些代工厂跟随龙头台积电，有一个资本开支的复苏和上调，国内的国产化设备肯定也会受益，包括北方华创、中微、精测、至纯、华峰测控。</p>\n<p>我们在去年的报告中做了一张图，就是台积电的资本开支和它的收入、股价的对应。我们复盘台积电过去二十多年的历史，<b>它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，</b>背后往往是伴随着一个行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透。<b>第一波，PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，</b>分别发生在2001年到2003年，2010年到2012年这两个时间段。<b>第三次资本开支的跃升其实就是发生现在，</b>在2018年、2019年之前，它平均每年的资本开支大概在90到100亿美金，在2019年，它把这个数字上调了50%，上调到了150亿美金，此后，又连续上调了三次，现在基本上它的资本开支规划三年1000亿，也就是说比之前多了三倍。</p>\n<p>我们认为台积电的资本开支上调一定是它看到有这么多的新增需求，未来至少五到十年间，能够看到这么多新增需求来匹配这么多的产能，它才会作出这个决定，我觉得<b>台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪指标，</b>这一轮全球半导体之所以反弹，也是发生在台积电给了这么积极的资本开支的指引之后。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>03&nbsp;<b>需求来自哪些方面？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>需求端最大的几块来自于HPC、高性能运算以及汽车的智能化和新能源化。简单点讲，<b>现在的智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，</b>它对应着半导体新增的需求量，8寸硅片，<b>新能源车这块的增量基本上都在800美金以上，</b>相当于现在高端8寸硅片的报价。一部车至少需要一片，智能化一部车需要一个算力最先进的电脑和相应的存储和传感器，一<b>部具备智能化的新能源车整个单车的新增需求，</b>我们只讲增量需求，<b>大概在1800到2000美金以上。</b>这个增量如果迅速开始渗透是相当巨大的一个数字，现有的产能肯定是没有办法去满足这块的新增需求。正是因为有越来越多的造车新势力，包括特斯拉这种厂家开始在这块发力，本轮汽车缺芯是历史上罕见的情况。</p>\n<p>HPC这一块相对来说比较难量化，因为有很多东西其实不是在一个公开透明的市场，比如说挖矿，但我们从另外一个观测的指标，显卡的销量和显卡的二手加价的幅度来看，可见一斑。基本上现在英伟达307的显卡都需要加价30%以上，甚至有的系列需要加价70%以上，这中间很多原因就是大量显卡被用于挖矿。</p>\n<p><b>HPC这一块的需求，一块是矿机，另外一块是服务器的复苏，</b>今年开始，英特尔的新平台，AMD的新平台从下半年开始有一个更新换代，这会带来服务器这一块增量需求的一波复苏，同样对于整个高端制程会产生非常大的缺口。</p>\n<p>还是要重申一点，行业需求有多好或者持续性大概有多久，我觉得看龙头的动作是最直观的。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>04&nbsp;<b>一季报的业绩高增长会不会有去年低基数的影响？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>传统的制造业，比如说被动元器件、面板，包括消费电子在内，去年因为疫情直接影响了开工，在业绩上属于低基数，</b>在这个低基数的作用下，这次一季报这些环节的增速都会非常亮眼。</p>\n<p><b>芯片板块其实相对来说去年基数的影响更小一些，</b>为什么？去年一季度是疫情发生的第一个季度，芯片环节，尤其是设计公司，他们的订单基本都在代工厂，中芯、台积电等等，在这些代工厂高度自动化的条件下去生产、运转，我们在去年一季度的时候，当时面对市场的担忧，我们把十几家上市公司拉出来聊过，当时基本上很多公司都是处在高产能利用率运转的状态。因此，去年对于芯片公司、半导体公司来讲，疫情的影响是更小一些的，或者去年因为全球担心疫情对供应链的干扰，去年一季度很多公司都是加大马力在运转。所以我们看到以韦尔股份为例，去年一季度它的收入增速是44%，在2019年四季度的基础上，增速还在增加，归母净利润的增速由于并表的影响同比增长了800%，也有接近4.5亿左右的单季度净利润，环比2019年的四季度还在继续往上。对于这种公司来讲，去年基数的影响其实不大，他们去年并不算低基数，我觉得这一波更多还是体现在他们自身的新产品以及整个行业的高景气带来的订单高速增长和盈利能力的增加。</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194421768","content_text":"核心观点\n\n\n\n\n\n1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。\n2、原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，它们的盈利有明显的提升，而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应。\n3、台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划。它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往伴随着行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透，第一波是PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，第三次就是现在。\n4、台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪半导体行业景气度的指标。\n5、智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，对应的单车半导体新增需求量至少在800美金，甚至可以高达1800-2000美金以上。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n01 全球缺芯，最受益的是哪些环节？\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n站在当前的时点，全球芯片缺成一片，中国的芯片行业从年报预告和一季报预告来看，进入了非常强的爆发期，资产价格和行业基本面出现了明显的背离，行业龙头目前具备非常强的配置价值。\n产能的持续紧张是大家最关心的一个问题，这要从供需两方面看：\n从供给来看，过去三年全球的产能扩张并不顺利，由于中美的贸易问题和全球的疫情，导致全球的供给端连续三年下修；从需求看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机需求，汽车的智能化，以及矿机等等。因此整个产业链出现了缺货的情况。\n从上游的核心原材料，到中游代工，到下游封装测试，全面出现了吃紧、涨价，我们重点要关注产业链价格传导的能力，原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，所以它们的盈利有明显的提升。而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应，对于有议价能力的公司，我们也能在接下来的财报中看到他们的盈利能力提升。今年对大部分半导体公司来说，迎来的是从量到价到盈利能力的三击。半导体的估值经过了前一段时间的下跌消化，如果接下来迎来环比超预期的业绩，半导体在当下时点是非常值得关注的。\n从各环节来看，包括设计公司、重资产的代工、封装测试，以及材料和设备，目前最缺的是在材料端和产能端。这一轮半导体的高景气，最受益的是晶圆代工厂，具有自有产能的IDM厂商，以及配套的材料厂商，还有封测环节，这几个环节目前处于卖方市场，他们具备很强的议价能力和订单挑选能力，由于高毛利的订单做不过来，低毛利和不愿接受涨价的订单，就会面临调整，由于产能利用率满载和结构改善，重资产的代工厂会出现明显的毛利率上升，当然营收端也会有很不错的表现。\n着眼全球，台积电是最受益的，它现在处于绝对的强势地位，包括中芯国际（00981）、华虹（01347）、华润微，以及具备IDM产能的闻泰的安世、扬杰等等，这些公司都处于产能利用率满载的阶段。封测领域包括长电、晶方、通富、华天等等，也都是满载状态。材料环节，日系、韩系、美系的材料厂商是最为受益的，现在最缺的两个环节，一个是IC载板，尤其是用在高性能运算的CPU的IC载板，另一个是硅片。在材料短缺的情况下，国产化的进度会有加速，尤其是在当前的国际形势下，硅片、载板、光刻胶等会有国产化加速。相应的公司包括光刻胶领域的彤程新材、晶瑞股份以及上海新阳，IC载板领域包括兴森、深南，硅片领域包括沪硅、立昂微等。\n设计环节会出现分化，有人受益有人受损，小厂家是受损的一方，由于是散单，在产能紧张的情况下，代工厂对它们的涨价力度会更大，现在绝大部分的上市公司，它们在各自的细分领域都是做到了龙头的地位，至少行业前三、前五的位置，对于行业龙头来说，如果能顺利把材料成本的上涨转嫁给客户，由于还有固定成本的存在，它的毛利率肯定会上升，因此它们的盈利能力也会有比较明显的提升，其中韦尔股份是最为受益的，也包括卓胜微、兆易，刚刚讲的IDM的闻泰、华润微等。\n另外一类就是Driver IC，驱动芯片这一块也是缺货最为严峻的环节，包括几家做驱动芯片的公司，晶丰明源、明微电子，以及韦尔股份，现在也都是处在一个毛利率大幅度提升的状况。\n\n\n\n\n\n02 台积电的资本开支规划是行业景气度的最好跟踪指标\n\n\n\n\n\n剩下还有一个板块是设备，设备相对来讲属于更后周期一些。因为在产能不足的情况下，所有的厂家今年都在陆续恢复甚至上调自己的资本开支，台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月2号左右再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划，在这个作用之下，整个设备环节也是会被拉动一波。如果国内这些代工厂跟随龙头台积电，有一个资本开支的复苏和上调，国内的国产化设备肯定也会受益，包括北方华创、中微、精测、至纯、华峰测控。\n我们在去年的报告中做了一张图，就是台积电的资本开支和它的收入、股价的对应。我们复盘台积电过去二十多年的历史，它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往是伴随着一个行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透。第一波，PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，分别发生在2001年到2003年，2010年到2012年这两个时间段。第三次资本开支的跃升其实就是发生现在，在2018年、2019年之前，它平均每年的资本开支大概在90到100亿美金，在2019年，它把这个数字上调了50%，上调到了150亿美金，此后，又连续上调了三次，现在基本上它的资本开支规划三年1000亿，也就是说比之前多了三倍。\n我们认为台积电的资本开支上调一定是它看到有这么多的新增需求，未来至少五到十年间，能够看到这么多新增需求来匹配这么多的产能，它才会作出这个决定，我觉得台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪指标，这一轮全球半导体之所以反弹，也是发生在台积电给了这么积极的资本开支的指引之后。\n\n\n\n\n\n03 需求来自哪些方面？\n\n\n\n\n\n需求端最大的几块来自于HPC、高性能运算以及汽车的智能化和新能源化。简单点讲，现在的智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，它对应着半导体新增的需求量，8寸硅片，新能源车这块的增量基本上都在800美金以上，相当于现在高端8寸硅片的报价。一部车至少需要一片，智能化一部车需要一个算力最先进的电脑和相应的存储和传感器，一部具备智能化的新能源车整个单车的新增需求，我们只讲增量需求，大概在1800到2000美金以上。这个增量如果迅速开始渗透是相当巨大的一个数字，现有的产能肯定是没有办法去满足这块的新增需求。正是因为有越来越多的造车新势力，包括特斯拉这种厂家开始在这块发力，本轮汽车缺芯是历史上罕见的情况。\nHPC这一块相对来说比较难量化，因为有很多东西其实不是在一个公开透明的市场，比如说挖矿，但我们从另外一个观测的指标，显卡的销量和显卡的二手加价的幅度来看，可见一斑。基本上现在英伟达307的显卡都需要加价30%以上，甚至有的系列需要加价70%以上，这中间很多原因就是大量显卡被用于挖矿。\nHPC这一块的需求，一块是矿机，另外一块是服务器的复苏，今年开始，英特尔的新平台，AMD的新平台从下半年开始有一个更新换代，这会带来服务器这一块增量需求的一波复苏，同样对于整个高端制程会产生非常大的缺口。\n还是要重申一点，行业需求有多好或者持续性大概有多久，我觉得看龙头的动作是最直观的。\n\n\n\n\n\n04 一季报的业绩高增长会不会有去年低基数的影响？\n\n\n\n\n\n传统的制造业，比如说被动元器件、面板，包括消费电子在内，去年因为疫情直接影响了开工，在业绩上属于低基数，在这个低基数的作用下，这次一季报这些环节的增速都会非常亮眼。\n芯片板块其实相对来说去年基数的影响更小一些，为什么？去年一季度是疫情发生的第一个季度，芯片环节，尤其是设计公司，他们的订单基本都在代工厂，中芯、台积电等等，在这些代工厂高度自动化的条件下去生产、运转，我们在去年一季度的时候，当时面对市场的担忧，我们把十几家上市公司拉出来聊过，当时基本上很多公司都是处在高产能利用率运转的状态。因此，去年对于芯片公司、半导体公司来讲，疫情的影响是更小一些的，或者去年因为全球担心疫情对供应链的干扰，去年一季度很多公司都是加大马力在运转。所以我们看到以韦尔股份为例，去年一季度它的收入增速是44%，在2019年四季度的基础上，增速还在增加，归母净利润的增速由于并表的影响同比增长了800%，也有接近4.5亿左右的单季度净利润，环比2019年的四季度还在继续往上。对于这种公司来讲，去年基数的影响其实不大，他们去年并不算低基数，我觉得这一波更多还是体现在他们自身的新产品以及整个行业的高景气带来的订单高速增长和盈利能力的增加。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358490984,"gmtCreate":1616720318248,"gmtModify":1616720318248,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还OK吧？","listText":"还OK吧？","text":"还OK吧？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6ef9015191f6972f00363e04a800ec","width":"750","height":"2176"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358490984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320011953,"gmtCreate":1614989557272,"gmtModify":1703483950896,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"凉凉的....","listText":"凉凉的....","text":"凉凉的....","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecb78e5f7df5bd2d381a8ac6f159baf","width":"750","height":"2285"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320011953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367969112,"gmtCreate":1614904126736,"gmtModify":1703482726830,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e42e61e5ff51755eb90ad1bf9db17c4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367969112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369309906,"gmtCreate":1614002166805,"gmtModify":1614002166805,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369309906","repostId":"387138263","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":387138263,"gmtCreate":1613726605752,"gmtModify":1613859192598,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"【贝瑞专访】Thomas Carroll: 认清这三点 轻松挑选大麻股","htmlText":"\n \n \n  加拿大两大大麻公司Aphria<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APHA\">$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$</a>&nbsp;和Tilray<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>&nbsp;宣布2020年12月16日合并。他们的合并对于投资者意味着什么？如何挑选一家优质的大麻股公司？现在上车算早吗？贝瑞研究CEO James Early 专访资深北美分析师Thomas Carroll，一探究竟！\n \n","listText":"加拿大两大大麻公司Aphria<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APHA\">$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$</a>&nbsp;和Tilray<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>&nbsp;宣布2020年12月16日合并。他们的合并对于投资者意味着什么？如何挑选一家优质的大麻股公司？现在上车算早吗？贝瑞研究CEO James Early 专访资深北美分析师Thomas Carroll，一探究竟！","text":"加拿大两大大麻公司Aphria$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$ 和Tilray$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ 宣布2020年12月16日合并。他们的合并对于投资者意味着什么？如何挑选一家优质的大麻股公司？现在上车算早吗？贝瑞研究CEO James Early 专访资深北美分析师Thomas Carroll，一探究竟！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271ab5a6307cfda8e2f4388b7abf6666","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387138263","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"bff48d8d5649459f8bf14b11819bb7bb","tweetId":"387138263","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/4008690c5285890814436214458/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271ab5a6307cfda8e2f4388b7abf6666"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387870636,"gmtCreate":1613741174625,"gmtModify":1613744143037,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>稳如老牛","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>稳如老牛","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$稳如老牛","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f219280f7c6bc72839eeb5cdc08e310a","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387870636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388750724,"gmtCreate":1613100438268,"gmtModify":1613100438268,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"左右逢源","listText":"左右逢源","text":"左右逢源","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388750724","repostId":"2110218160","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2110218160","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1613075160,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110218160?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-12 04:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110218160","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n\n\n  By Mark DeCambre \n\n\n","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n</p>\n<p>\n  By Mark DeCambre \n</p>\n<p>\n  'You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages' Cramer says, adding that the stock market is on 'a highway to the danger zone.' \n</p>\n<p>\n  Investors are observing the U.S. stock market's assault on fresh record highs with a certain measure of unease--and perhaps for a good reason. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The pandemic is still at or near full-strength, although hope remains strong that effective vaccines will quell the spread. A hoped-for recovery in the second half of the year seems a ways away and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said as much during a webcast talk hosted by the Economics Club of New York on Wednesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Workers and households who struggle to find their place in the post-pandemic economy are likely to need continued support,\" Powell said . \"The same is true for many small businesses that are likely to prosper again once the pandemic is behind us.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Read: The stock market is echoing 2009-10 -- and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn  \n</p>\n<p>\n  In other words, easy-money policies, with interest rates at or around 0%, will remain in force for the foreseeable future. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Set against the expectations of trillions of dollars of further government aid spending championed by the Biden administration, it is no wonder that pockets of euphoria amid superlow interest rates have materialized. \n</p>\n<p>\n  From special-purpose acquisition company, or SPACs, which have been the vehicle du jour to bring companies to public markets, to meme stocks represented by bricks-and-mortar businesses with a questionable future in the middle of the COVID health crisis like GameStop Corp <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>., AMC Entertainment Holdings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, signs of froth in the system appear to be prevalent. \n</p>\n<p>\n  That is perhaps whyJim Cramer, host of CNBC's \"Mad Money,\"  on his show on Wednesday described markets as on uncertain footing to say the least. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages\" Cramer said, adding that the stock market is on \"a highway to the danger zone.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  He cautioned that investors should exercise a modicum of caution: \"I am not saying sell everything. I am simply begging you to exercise some discipline and sell something because nobody ever got hurt taking a profit.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Cramer isn't alone. The appetite for stories on MarketWatch and our sister publication Barrons.com about potential market corrections have been ravenously consumed. And that is not out of some sort of schadenfreude, or a sense of reveling in the possibility of a downturn, but because there is so much angst around this rebound from a COVID-19 economic demolition with few modern day playbooks for the road to recovery. \n</p>\n<p>\n  A couple of weeks ago, the market was gripped with genuine fear that a downturn might be at hand, spurred by a collective uprising from individual investors and powered by social-media platforms Reddit and Discord, but the market has powered back after momentarily losing grip on year-to-date gains. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Now investors are piling into (and out of) pot stocks, at a furious pace, with stocks of companies like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> (TLRY), Aphria (APHA.T) and the exchange-traded fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJX\">ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJ\">$(MJ)$</a> seeing violent shifts in momentum. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Amid that fervor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.4% over the roughly 28 trading days of 2021, the S&amp;P 500 index  has gained nearly 4% and the Nasdaq Composite Index  is enjoying an 8.5% year-to-date turn so far. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Cramer said that investors are getting too greedy. Perhaps, investors have been overeager. \n</p>\n<p>\n  However, CNN's fear and greed index is only a few points over neutral at 56, far from the extreme levels that tend to indicate that excess is building up in the system. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC on Thursday, during the business networks \"Halftime Report,\" said that he's not seeing signs of  euphoria  and, while pockets of excess are prevalent in \"meme\" trading trends and in pot stocks, they are not suggestive of inflated values throughout the system. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Analysts like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Michael Wilson said that he thinks the markets are fragile but may only see halting pullbacks of around 5% and Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that the market isn't giving itself enough credit for the solid earnings reports that have thus far been released for the fourth quarter. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we don't see bubble conditions more broadly,\" Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n  At the end of the day, maintaining a prudent investing stance is the best way to approach these or any markets. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Timing the market is tough task and it is impossible to know precisely when markets will fall into a danger zone a la Kenny Loggins: \n</p>\n<p>\n  And even if problems arise in the market, it is hard to know how long they will last and which areas will be the hardest hit. Such was the case with this pandemic, when markets blasted off their March 2020 lows and have yet to retrace  significantly. \n</p>\n<p>\n  That may suggest that long-term, consistent investing is a road to riches rather than a highway to danger. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 11, 2021 15:26 ET (20:26 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-12 04:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n</p>\n<p>\n  By Mark DeCambre \n</p>\n<p>\n  'You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages' Cramer says, adding that the stock market is on 'a highway to the danger zone.' \n</p>\n<p>\n  Investors are observing the U.S. stock market's assault on fresh record highs with a certain measure of unease--and perhaps for a good reason. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The pandemic is still at or near full-strength, although hope remains strong that effective vaccines will quell the spread. A hoped-for recovery in the second half of the year seems a ways away and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said as much during a webcast talk hosted by the Economics Club of New York on Wednesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Workers and households who struggle to find their place in the post-pandemic economy are likely to need continued support,\" Powell said . \"The same is true for many small businesses that are likely to prosper again once the pandemic is behind us.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Read: The stock market is echoing 2009-10 -- and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn  \n</p>\n<p>\n  In other words, easy-money policies, with interest rates at or around 0%, will remain in force for the foreseeable future. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Set against the expectations of trillions of dollars of further government aid spending championed by the Biden administration, it is no wonder that pockets of euphoria amid superlow interest rates have materialized. \n</p>\n<p>\n  From special-purpose acquisition company, or SPACs, which have been the vehicle du jour to bring companies to public markets, to meme stocks represented by bricks-and-mortar businesses with a questionable future in the middle of the COVID health crisis like GameStop Corp <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>., AMC Entertainment Holdings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, signs of froth in the system appear to be prevalent. \n</p>\n<p>\n  That is perhaps whyJim Cramer, host of CNBC's \"Mad Money,\"  on his show on Wednesday described markets as on uncertain footing to say the least. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages\" Cramer said, adding that the stock market is on \"a highway to the danger zone.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  He cautioned that investors should exercise a modicum of caution: \"I am not saying sell everything. I am simply begging you to exercise some discipline and sell something because nobody ever got hurt taking a profit.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Cramer isn't alone. The appetite for stories on MarketWatch and our sister publication Barrons.com about potential market corrections have been ravenously consumed. And that is not out of some sort of schadenfreude, or a sense of reveling in the possibility of a downturn, but because there is so much angst around this rebound from a COVID-19 economic demolition with few modern day playbooks for the road to recovery. \n</p>\n<p>\n  A couple of weeks ago, the market was gripped with genuine fear that a downturn might be at hand, spurred by a collective uprising from individual investors and powered by social-media platforms Reddit and Discord, but the market has powered back after momentarily losing grip on year-to-date gains. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Now investors are piling into (and out of) pot stocks, at a furious pace, with stocks of companies like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> (TLRY), Aphria (APHA.T) and the exchange-traded fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJX\">ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJ\">$(MJ)$</a> seeing violent shifts in momentum. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Amid that fervor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.4% over the roughly 28 trading days of 2021, the S&amp;P 500 index  has gained nearly 4% and the Nasdaq Composite Index  is enjoying an 8.5% year-to-date turn so far. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Cramer said that investors are getting too greedy. Perhaps, investors have been overeager. \n</p>\n<p>\n  However, CNN's fear and greed index is only a few points over neutral at 56, far from the extreme levels that tend to indicate that excess is building up in the system. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC on Thursday, during the business networks \"Halftime Report,\" said that he's not seeing signs of  euphoria  and, while pockets of excess are prevalent in \"meme\" trading trends and in pot stocks, they are not suggestive of inflated values throughout the system. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Analysts like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Michael Wilson said that he thinks the markets are fragile but may only see halting pullbacks of around 5% and Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that the market isn't giving itself enough credit for the solid earnings reports that have thus far been released for the fourth quarter. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we don't see bubble conditions more broadly,\" Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n  At the end of the day, maintaining a prudent investing stance is the best way to approach these or any markets. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Timing the market is tough task and it is impossible to know precisely when markets will fall into a danger zone a la Kenny Loggins: \n</p>\n<p>\n  And even if problems arise in the market, it is hard to know how long they will last and which areas will be the hardest hit. Such was the case with this pandemic, when markets blasted off their March 2020 lows and have yet to retrace  significantly. \n</p>\n<p>\n  That may suggest that long-term, consistent investing is a road to riches rather than a highway to danger. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 11, 2021 15:26 ET (20:26 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","MJ":"Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110218160","content_text":"MW Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n\n\n  By Mark DeCambre \n\n\n  'You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages' Cramer says, adding that the stock market is on 'a highway to the danger zone.' \n\n\n  Investors are observing the U.S. stock market's assault on fresh record highs with a certain measure of unease--and perhaps for a good reason. \n\n\n  The pandemic is still at or near full-strength, although hope remains strong that effective vaccines will quell the spread. A hoped-for recovery in the second half of the year seems a ways away and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said as much during a webcast talk hosted by the Economics Club of New York on Wednesday. \n\n\n  \"Workers and households who struggle to find their place in the post-pandemic economy are likely to need continued support,\" Powell said . \"The same is true for many small businesses that are likely to prosper again once the pandemic is behind us.\" \n\n\n  Read: The stock market is echoing 2009-10 -- and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn  \n\n\n  In other words, easy-money policies, with interest rates at or around 0%, will remain in force for the foreseeable future. \n\n\n  Set against the expectations of trillions of dollars of further government aid spending championed by the Biden administration, it is no wonder that pockets of euphoria amid superlow interest rates have materialized. \n\n\n  From special-purpose acquisition company, or SPACs, which have been the vehicle du jour to bring companies to public markets, to meme stocks represented by bricks-and-mortar businesses with a questionable future in the middle of the COVID health crisis like GameStop Corp $(GME)$., AMC Entertainment Holdings $(AMC)$, signs of froth in the system appear to be prevalent. \n\n\n  That is perhaps whyJim Cramer, host of CNBC's \"Mad Money,\"  on his show on Wednesday described markets as on uncertain footing to say the least. \n\n\n  \"You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages\" Cramer said, adding that the stock market is on \"a highway to the danger zone.\" \n\n\n  He cautioned that investors should exercise a modicum of caution: \"I am not saying sell everything. I am simply begging you to exercise some discipline and sell something because nobody ever got hurt taking a profit.\" \n\n\n  Cramer isn't alone. The appetite for stories on MarketWatch and our sister publication Barrons.com about potential market corrections have been ravenously consumed. And that is not out of some sort of schadenfreude, or a sense of reveling in the possibility of a downturn, but because there is so much angst around this rebound from a COVID-19 economic demolition with few modern day playbooks for the road to recovery. \n\n\n  A couple of weeks ago, the market was gripped with genuine fear that a downturn might be at hand, spurred by a collective uprising from individual investors and powered by social-media platforms Reddit and Discord, but the market has powered back after momentarily losing grip on year-to-date gains. \n\n\n  Now investors are piling into (and out of) pot stocks, at a furious pace, with stocks of companies like Tilray Inc. (TLRY), Aphria (APHA.T) and the exchange-traded fund ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF $(MJ)$ seeing violent shifts in momentum. \n\n\n  Amid that fervor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.4% over the roughly 28 trading days of 2021, the S&P 500 index  has gained nearly 4% and the Nasdaq Composite Index  is enjoying an 8.5% year-to-date turn so far. \n\n\n  Cramer said that investors are getting too greedy. Perhaps, investors have been overeager. \n\n\n  However, CNN's fear and greed index is only a few points over neutral at 56, far from the extreme levels that tend to indicate that excess is building up in the system. \n\n\n  Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC on Thursday, during the business networks \"Halftime Report,\" said that he's not seeing signs of  euphoria  and, while pockets of excess are prevalent in \"meme\" trading trends and in pot stocks, they are not suggestive of inflated values throughout the system. \n\n\n  Analysts like Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson said that he thinks the markets are fragile but may only see halting pullbacks of around 5% and Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that the market isn't giving itself enough credit for the solid earnings reports that have thus far been released for the fourth quarter. \n\n\n  \"Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we don't see bubble conditions more broadly,\" Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday. \n\n\n  At the end of the day, maintaining a prudent investing stance is the best way to approach these or any markets. \n\n\n  Timing the market is tough task and it is impossible to know precisely when markets will fall into a danger zone a la Kenny Loggins: \n\n\n  And even if problems arise in the market, it is hard to know how long they will last and which areas will be the hardest hit. Such was the case with this pandemic, when markets blasted off their March 2020 lows and have yet to retrace  significantly. \n\n\n  That may suggest that long-term, consistent investing is a road to riches rather than a highway to danger. \n\n\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  February 11, 2021 15:26 ET (20:26 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388724293,"gmtCreate":1613100038112,"gmtModify":1613100038112,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分享","listText":"分享","text":"分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388724293","repostId":"2110026435","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2110026435","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1613063460,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110026435?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-12 01:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110026435","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW UPDATE: Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trad","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW UPDATE: Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out\n</p>\n<p>\n  One of the most popular ways to gain exposure to the cannabis industry was facing the worst single-day decline since it was created back in 2015, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJX\">ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJ\">$(MJ)$</a> on Thursday was down more than 20% and on track to snap a three-day win streak as it heads to its worst day since inception, Dec. 3 of 2015. Stunningly, the ETF was still nursing an 11% gain for the week and an 81% gain in the year to date, highlighting the nearly unfettered appetite for pot stocks that has gripped the market in recent days. The decline for the popular ETF comes as Cannabis shares were tumbling sharply across the board Thursday, with many of the sector's best performers a day earlier surrendering all those gains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> (TLRY), a recent market darling, was last down 42%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APHA\">Aphria Inc.</a> (APHA.T), with which it is merging, was down over 30%. Pot stocks have been reignited on bullish bets for positive political developments and a better legal landscape under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, the broader market was seeing tepid gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  was off 0.2%, the S&amp;P 500 index  trading flat and the Nasdaq Composite Index  gaining a modest 0.3% on the session. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 11, 2021 12:11 ET (17:11 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-12 01:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW UPDATE: Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out\n</p>\n<p>\n  One of the most popular ways to gain exposure to the cannabis industry was facing the worst single-day decline since it was created back in 2015, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJX\">ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJ\">$(MJ)$</a> on Thursday was down more than 20% and on track to snap a three-day win streak as it heads to its worst day since inception, Dec. 3 of 2015. Stunningly, the ETF was still nursing an 11% gain for the week and an 81% gain in the year to date, highlighting the nearly unfettered appetite for pot stocks that has gripped the market in recent days. The decline for the popular ETF comes as Cannabis shares were tumbling sharply across the board Thursday, with many of the sector's best performers a day earlier surrendering all those gains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> (TLRY), a recent market darling, was last down 42%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APHA\">Aphria Inc.</a> (APHA.T), with which it is merging, was down over 30%. Pot stocks have been reignited on bullish bets for positive political developments and a better legal landscape under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, the broader market was seeing tepid gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  was off 0.2%, the S&amp;P 500 index  trading flat and the Nasdaq Composite Index  gaining a modest 0.3% on the session. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 11, 2021 12:11 ET (17:11 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APHA":"Aphria Inc.","MJ":"Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF","TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110026435","content_text":"MW UPDATE: Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out\n\n\n  One of the most popular ways to gain exposure to the cannabis industry was facing the worst single-day decline since it was created back in 2015, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF $(MJ)$ on Thursday was down more than 20% and on track to snap a three-day win streak as it heads to its worst day since inception, Dec. 3 of 2015. Stunningly, the ETF was still nursing an 11% gain for the week and an 81% gain in the year to date, highlighting the nearly unfettered appetite for pot stocks that has gripped the market in recent days. The decline for the popular ETF comes as Cannabis shares were tumbling sharply across the board Thursday, with many of the sector's best performers a day earlier surrendering all those gains. Tilray Inc. (TLRY), a recent market darling, was last down 42%, while Aphria Inc. (APHA.T), with which it is merging, was down over 30%. Pot stocks have been reignited on bullish bets for positive political developments and a better legal landscape under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, the broader market was seeing tepid gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  was off 0.2%, the S&P 500 index  trading flat and the Nasdaq Composite Index  gaining a modest 0.3% on the session. \n\n\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  February 11, 2021 12:11 ET (17:11 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388384353,"gmtCreate":1613023760572,"gmtModify":1703768480872,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388384353","repostId":"1131026868","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381902217,"gmtCreate":1612918372239,"gmtModify":1703766892363,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381902217","repostId":"1131612823","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380762463,"gmtCreate":1612593743452,"gmtModify":1703763911351,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>有起色","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>有起色","text":"$Zoom(ZM)$有起色","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be95a9b2913a601313685210e81bab8","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380762463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":367969112,"gmtCreate":1614904126736,"gmtModify":1703482726830,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>登高望远[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>登高望远[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$登高望远[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e42e61e5ff51755eb90ad1bf9db17c4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367969112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380762463,"gmtCreate":1612593743452,"gmtModify":1703763911351,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>有起色","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>有起色","text":"$Zoom(ZM)$有起色","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be95a9b2913a601313685210e81bab8","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380762463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388750724,"gmtCreate":1613100438268,"gmtModify":1613100438268,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"左右逢源","listText":"左右逢源","text":"左右逢源","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388750724","repostId":"2110218160","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2110218160","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1613075160,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110218160?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-12 04:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110218160","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n\n\n  By Mark DeCambre \n\n\n","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n</p>\n<p>\n  By Mark DeCambre \n</p>\n<p>\n  'You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages' Cramer says, adding that the stock market is on 'a highway to the danger zone.' \n</p>\n<p>\n  Investors are observing the U.S. stock market's assault on fresh record highs with a certain measure of unease--and perhaps for a good reason. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The pandemic is still at or near full-strength, although hope remains strong that effective vaccines will quell the spread. A hoped-for recovery in the second half of the year seems a ways away and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said as much during a webcast talk hosted by the Economics Club of New York on Wednesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Workers and households who struggle to find their place in the post-pandemic economy are likely to need continued support,\" Powell said . \"The same is true for many small businesses that are likely to prosper again once the pandemic is behind us.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Read: The stock market is echoing 2009-10 -- and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn  \n</p>\n<p>\n  In other words, easy-money policies, with interest rates at or around 0%, will remain in force for the foreseeable future. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Set against the expectations of trillions of dollars of further government aid spending championed by the Biden administration, it is no wonder that pockets of euphoria amid superlow interest rates have materialized. \n</p>\n<p>\n  From special-purpose acquisition company, or SPACs, which have been the vehicle du jour to bring companies to public markets, to meme stocks represented by bricks-and-mortar businesses with a questionable future in the middle of the COVID health crisis like GameStop Corp <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>., AMC Entertainment Holdings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, signs of froth in the system appear to be prevalent. \n</p>\n<p>\n  That is perhaps whyJim Cramer, host of CNBC's \"Mad Money,\"  on his show on Wednesday described markets as on uncertain footing to say the least. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages\" Cramer said, adding that the stock market is on \"a highway to the danger zone.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  He cautioned that investors should exercise a modicum of caution: \"I am not saying sell everything. I am simply begging you to exercise some discipline and sell something because nobody ever got hurt taking a profit.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Cramer isn't alone. The appetite for stories on MarketWatch and our sister publication Barrons.com about potential market corrections have been ravenously consumed. And that is not out of some sort of schadenfreude, or a sense of reveling in the possibility of a downturn, but because there is so much angst around this rebound from a COVID-19 economic demolition with few modern day playbooks for the road to recovery. \n</p>\n<p>\n  A couple of weeks ago, the market was gripped with genuine fear that a downturn might be at hand, spurred by a collective uprising from individual investors and powered by social-media platforms Reddit and Discord, but the market has powered back after momentarily losing grip on year-to-date gains. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Now investors are piling into (and out of) pot stocks, at a furious pace, with stocks of companies like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> (TLRY), Aphria (APHA.T) and the exchange-traded fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJX\">ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJ\">$(MJ)$</a> seeing violent shifts in momentum. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Amid that fervor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.4% over the roughly 28 trading days of 2021, the S&amp;P 500 index  has gained nearly 4% and the Nasdaq Composite Index  is enjoying an 8.5% year-to-date turn so far. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Cramer said that investors are getting too greedy. Perhaps, investors have been overeager. \n</p>\n<p>\n  However, CNN's fear and greed index is only a few points over neutral at 56, far from the extreme levels that tend to indicate that excess is building up in the system. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC on Thursday, during the business networks \"Halftime Report,\" said that he's not seeing signs of  euphoria  and, while pockets of excess are prevalent in \"meme\" trading trends and in pot stocks, they are not suggestive of inflated values throughout the system. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Analysts like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Michael Wilson said that he thinks the markets are fragile but may only see halting pullbacks of around 5% and Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that the market isn't giving itself enough credit for the solid earnings reports that have thus far been released for the fourth quarter. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we don't see bubble conditions more broadly,\" Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n  At the end of the day, maintaining a prudent investing stance is the best way to approach these or any markets. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Timing the market is tough task and it is impossible to know precisely when markets will fall into a danger zone a la Kenny Loggins: \n</p>\n<p>\n  And even if problems arise in the market, it is hard to know how long they will last and which areas will be the hardest hit. Such was the case with this pandemic, when markets blasted off their March 2020 lows and have yet to retrace  significantly. \n</p>\n<p>\n  That may suggest that long-term, consistent investing is a road to riches rather than a highway to danger. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 11, 2021 15:26 ET (20:26 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-12 04:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n</p>\n<p>\n  By Mark DeCambre \n</p>\n<p>\n  'You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages' Cramer says, adding that the stock market is on 'a highway to the danger zone.' \n</p>\n<p>\n  Investors are observing the U.S. stock market's assault on fresh record highs with a certain measure of unease--and perhaps for a good reason. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The pandemic is still at or near full-strength, although hope remains strong that effective vaccines will quell the spread. A hoped-for recovery in the second half of the year seems a ways away and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said as much during a webcast talk hosted by the Economics Club of New York on Wednesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Workers and households who struggle to find their place in the post-pandemic economy are likely to need continued support,\" Powell said . \"The same is true for many small businesses that are likely to prosper again once the pandemic is behind us.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Read: The stock market is echoing 2009-10 -- and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn  \n</p>\n<p>\n  In other words, easy-money policies, with interest rates at or around 0%, will remain in force for the foreseeable future. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Set against the expectations of trillions of dollars of further government aid spending championed by the Biden administration, it is no wonder that pockets of euphoria amid superlow interest rates have materialized. \n</p>\n<p>\n  From special-purpose acquisition company, or SPACs, which have been the vehicle du jour to bring companies to public markets, to meme stocks represented by bricks-and-mortar businesses with a questionable future in the middle of the COVID health crisis like GameStop Corp <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>., AMC Entertainment Holdings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, signs of froth in the system appear to be prevalent. \n</p>\n<p>\n  That is perhaps whyJim Cramer, host of CNBC's \"Mad Money,\"  on his show on Wednesday described markets as on uncertain footing to say the least. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages\" Cramer said, adding that the stock market is on \"a highway to the danger zone.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  He cautioned that investors should exercise a modicum of caution: \"I am not saying sell everything. I am simply begging you to exercise some discipline and sell something because nobody ever got hurt taking a profit.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Cramer isn't alone. The appetite for stories on MarketWatch and our sister publication Barrons.com about potential market corrections have been ravenously consumed. And that is not out of some sort of schadenfreude, or a sense of reveling in the possibility of a downturn, but because there is so much angst around this rebound from a COVID-19 economic demolition with few modern day playbooks for the road to recovery. \n</p>\n<p>\n  A couple of weeks ago, the market was gripped with genuine fear that a downturn might be at hand, spurred by a collective uprising from individual investors and powered by social-media platforms Reddit and Discord, but the market has powered back after momentarily losing grip on year-to-date gains. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Now investors are piling into (and out of) pot stocks, at a furious pace, with stocks of companies like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> (TLRY), Aphria (APHA.T) and the exchange-traded fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJX\">ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJ\">$(MJ)$</a> seeing violent shifts in momentum. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Amid that fervor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.4% over the roughly 28 trading days of 2021, the S&amp;P 500 index  has gained nearly 4% and the Nasdaq Composite Index  is enjoying an 8.5% year-to-date turn so far. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Cramer said that investors are getting too greedy. Perhaps, investors have been overeager. \n</p>\n<p>\n  However, CNN's fear and greed index is only a few points over neutral at 56, far from the extreme levels that tend to indicate that excess is building up in the system. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC on Thursday, during the business networks \"Halftime Report,\" said that he's not seeing signs of  euphoria  and, while pockets of excess are prevalent in \"meme\" trading trends and in pot stocks, they are not suggestive of inflated values throughout the system. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Analysts like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Michael Wilson said that he thinks the markets are fragile but may only see halting pullbacks of around 5% and Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that the market isn't giving itself enough credit for the solid earnings reports that have thus far been released for the fourth quarter. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we don't see bubble conditions more broadly,\" Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n  At the end of the day, maintaining a prudent investing stance is the best way to approach these or any markets. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Timing the market is tough task and it is impossible to know precisely when markets will fall into a danger zone a la Kenny Loggins: \n</p>\n<p>\n  And even if problems arise in the market, it is hard to know how long they will last and which areas will be the hardest hit. Such was the case with this pandemic, when markets blasted off their March 2020 lows and have yet to retrace  significantly. \n</p>\n<p>\n  That may suggest that long-term, consistent investing is a road to riches rather than a highway to danger. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 11, 2021 15:26 ET (20:26 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","MJ":"Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110218160","content_text":"MW Why CNBC's Cramer says stock market is on a 'highway to the danger zone'\n\n\n  By Mark DeCambre \n\n\n  'You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages' Cramer says, adding that the stock market is on 'a highway to the danger zone.' \n\n\n  Investors are observing the U.S. stock market's assault on fresh record highs with a certain measure of unease--and perhaps for a good reason. \n\n\n  The pandemic is still at or near full-strength, although hope remains strong that effective vaccines will quell the spread. A hoped-for recovery in the second half of the year seems a ways away and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said as much during a webcast talk hosted by the Economics Club of New York on Wednesday. \n\n\n  \"Workers and households who struggle to find their place in the post-pandemic economy are likely to need continued support,\" Powell said . \"The same is true for many small businesses that are likely to prosper again once the pandemic is behind us.\" \n\n\n  Read: The stock market is echoing 2009-10 -- and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn  \n\n\n  In other words, easy-money policies, with interest rates at or around 0%, will remain in force for the foreseeable future. \n\n\n  Set against the expectations of trillions of dollars of further government aid spending championed by the Biden administration, it is no wonder that pockets of euphoria amid superlow interest rates have materialized. \n\n\n  From special-purpose acquisition company, or SPACs, which have been the vehicle du jour to bring companies to public markets, to meme stocks represented by bricks-and-mortar businesses with a questionable future in the middle of the COVID health crisis like GameStop Corp $(GME)$., AMC Entertainment Holdings $(AMC)$, signs of froth in the system appear to be prevalent. \n\n\n  That is perhaps whyJim Cramer, host of CNBC's \"Mad Money,\"  on his show on Wednesday described markets as on uncertain footing to say the least. \n\n\n  \"You wouldn't know it from the sedate action in the averages\" Cramer said, adding that the stock market is on \"a highway to the danger zone.\" \n\n\n  He cautioned that investors should exercise a modicum of caution: \"I am not saying sell everything. I am simply begging you to exercise some discipline and sell something because nobody ever got hurt taking a profit.\" \n\n\n  Cramer isn't alone. The appetite for stories on MarketWatch and our sister publication Barrons.com about potential market corrections have been ravenously consumed. And that is not out of some sort of schadenfreude, or a sense of reveling in the possibility of a downturn, but because there is so much angst around this rebound from a COVID-19 economic demolition with few modern day playbooks for the road to recovery. \n\n\n  A couple of weeks ago, the market was gripped with genuine fear that a downturn might be at hand, spurred by a collective uprising from individual investors and powered by social-media platforms Reddit and Discord, but the market has powered back after momentarily losing grip on year-to-date gains. \n\n\n  Now investors are piling into (and out of) pot stocks, at a furious pace, with stocks of companies like Tilray Inc. (TLRY), Aphria (APHA.T) and the exchange-traded fund ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF $(MJ)$ seeing violent shifts in momentum. \n\n\n  Amid that fervor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.4% over the roughly 28 trading days of 2021, the S&P 500 index  has gained nearly 4% and the Nasdaq Composite Index  is enjoying an 8.5% year-to-date turn so far. \n\n\n  Cramer said that investors are getting too greedy. Perhaps, investors have been overeager. \n\n\n  However, CNN's fear and greed index is only a few points over neutral at 56, far from the extreme levels that tend to indicate that excess is building up in the system. \n\n\n  Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC on Thursday, during the business networks \"Halftime Report,\" said that he's not seeing signs of  euphoria  and, while pockets of excess are prevalent in \"meme\" trading trends and in pot stocks, they are not suggestive of inflated values throughout the system. \n\n\n  Analysts like Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson said that he thinks the markets are fragile but may only see halting pullbacks of around 5% and Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said that the market isn't giving itself enough credit for the solid earnings reports that have thus far been released for the fourth quarter. \n\n\n  \"Although there are frothy segments of the market that are detached from fundamentals, we don't see bubble conditions more broadly,\" Lerner wrote in a research report dated Tuesday. \n\n\n  At the end of the day, maintaining a prudent investing stance is the best way to approach these or any markets. \n\n\n  Timing the market is tough task and it is impossible to know precisely when markets will fall into a danger zone a la Kenny Loggins: \n\n\n  And even if problems arise in the market, it is hard to know how long they will last and which areas will be the hardest hit. Such was the case with this pandemic, when markets blasted off their March 2020 lows and have yet to retrace  significantly. \n\n\n  That may suggest that long-term, consistent investing is a road to riches rather than a highway to danger. \n\n\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  February 11, 2021 15:26 ET (20:26 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310336188,"gmtCreate":1611248850144,"gmtModify":1703749251937,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLY\">$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$</a>等","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLY\">$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$</a>等","text":"$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$等","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9521b5f1a05356ef7efbdc95b8da247","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310336188","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":147205190,"gmtCreate":1626358178010,"gmtModify":1626358178010,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分享","listText":"分享","text":"分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147205190","repostId":"149781351","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":149781351,"gmtCreate":1625748818373,"gmtModify":1626531330237,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"解密：股神巴菲特的四大财富密码","htmlText":"摘要：清洁工一生清贫，身后竟留下800万美元遗产，他的生财之道是什么？本金不多，也想在股市分一杯羹？空有本金，却担心股市风险太大不敢下手？如何手持少量资金科学投资，做到以钱生钱？【注意！文末有福利！】本文聚焦：●&nbsp;PART 1：四大财富密码●&nbsp;&nbsp;PART 2：怎么选股票？什么样的股票值得入？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流。你身边的清洁工很可能是隐形富豪？！那他/她怕是拿了罗纳德·里德的剧本。你可能会问，罗纳德·里德何许人也？不同于含着金汤勺出生的富N代们，他在军队服过役，在加油站打过工，也当过清洁工，只是平平无奇一介草根。但是，重点来了，直至其92岁去世，这位清洁工身后竟然留下了将近800万美元的遗产——他把其中120万美元捐赠给了当地一家图书馆，另有480万美元捐给了伯瑞特波罗纪念医院，因为过去他常在那吃早餐。明明这份人生履历看起来平平无奇，里德究竟是如何凭借微薄的薪水成为千万富翁的呢？PART 1：四大财富密码1.花在刀刃上的钱里德平时很“抠门”，会把赚来的每一分钱都攒起来：●&nbsp;外套坏了就用别针固定，一件新的都不舍得买；●甚至最后一辆车还是辆二手车——一辆老掉牙的丰田雅力士；●还常常宁愿把车停到几个街区外再走到目的地，不愿付停车费。最奢侈的爱好就是偶尔去当地的一家咖啡店吃早餐，不过有一回他去结账，却发现别人已经帮他买单了，因为那人觉得他看起来像是付不起的样子......毕竟看看他的工作、衣服、车、房子，谁能想到他是这座城市最富有的人之一呢2.只买对的不买贵的那他究竟是如何实现财富增长的呢？图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者这要从他另一个爱好，炒股说起。里德通常只买他熟悉和了解的股票，这对于投资者来说应该是基本操作，且他买的都是蓝筹股，这种股票有两个特点：●&nbsp;股息高●&nbsp;","listText":"摘要：清洁工一生清贫，身后竟留下800万美元遗产，他的生财之道是什么？本金不多，也想在股市分一杯羹？空有本金，却担心股市风险太大不敢下手？如何手持少量资金科学投资，做到以钱生钱？【注意！文末有福利！】本文聚焦：●&nbsp;PART 1：四大财富密码●&nbsp;&nbsp;PART 2：怎么选股票？什么样的股票值得入？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流。你身边的清洁工很可能是隐形富豪？！那他/她怕是拿了罗纳德·里德的剧本。你可能会问，罗纳德·里德何许人也？不同于含着金汤勺出生的富N代们，他在军队服过役，在加油站打过工，也当过清洁工，只是平平无奇一介草根。但是，重点来了，直至其92岁去世，这位清洁工身后竟然留下了将近800万美元的遗产——他把其中120万美元捐赠给了当地一家图书馆，另有480万美元捐给了伯瑞特波罗纪念医院，因为过去他常在那吃早餐。明明这份人生履历看起来平平无奇，里德究竟是如何凭借微薄的薪水成为千万富翁的呢？PART 1：四大财富密码1.花在刀刃上的钱里德平时很“抠门”，会把赚来的每一分钱都攒起来：●&nbsp;外套坏了就用别针固定，一件新的都不舍得买；●甚至最后一辆车还是辆二手车——一辆老掉牙的丰田雅力士；●还常常宁愿把车停到几个街区外再走到目的地，不愿付停车费。最奢侈的爱好就是偶尔去当地的一家咖啡店吃早餐，不过有一回他去结账，却发现别人已经帮他买单了，因为那人觉得他看起来像是付不起的样子......毕竟看看他的工作、衣服、车、房子，谁能想到他是这座城市最富有的人之一呢2.只买对的不买贵的那他究竟是如何实现财富增长的呢？图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者这要从他另一个爱好，炒股说起。里德通常只买他熟悉和了解的股票，这对于投资者来说应该是基本操作，且他买的都是蓝筹股，这种股票有两个特点：●&nbsp;股息高●&nbsp;","text":"摘要：清洁工一生清贫，身后竟留下800万美元遗产，他的生财之道是什么？本金不多，也想在股市分一杯羹？空有本金，却担心股市风险太大不敢下手？如何手持少量资金科学投资，做到以钱生钱？【注意！文末有福利！】本文聚焦：● PART 1：四大财富密码● PART 2：怎么选股票？什么样的股票值得入？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流。你身边的清洁工很可能是隐形富豪？！那他/她怕是拿了罗纳德·里德的剧本。你可能会问，罗纳德·里德何许人也？不同于含着金汤勺出生的富N代们，他在军队服过役，在加油站打过工，也当过清洁工，只是平平无奇一介草根。但是，重点来了，直至其92岁去世，这位清洁工身后竟然留下了将近800万美元的遗产——他把其中120万美元捐赠给了当地一家图书馆，另有480万美元捐给了伯瑞特波罗纪念医院，因为过去他常在那吃早餐。明明这份人生履历看起来平平无奇，里德究竟是如何凭借微薄的薪水成为千万富翁的呢？PART 1：四大财富密码1.花在刀刃上的钱里德平时很“抠门”，会把赚来的每一分钱都攒起来：● 外套坏了就用别针固定，一件新的都不舍得买；●甚至最后一辆车还是辆二手车——一辆老掉牙的丰田雅力士；●还常常宁愿把车停到几个街区外再走到目的地，不愿付停车费。最奢侈的爱好就是偶尔去当地的一家咖啡店吃早餐，不过有一回他去结账，却发现别人已经帮他买单了，因为那人觉得他看起来像是付不起的样子......毕竟看看他的工作、衣服、车、房子，谁能想到他是这座城市最富有的人之一呢2.只买对的不买贵的那他究竟是如何实现财富增长的呢？图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者这要从他另一个爱好，炒股说起。里德通常只买他熟悉和了解的股票，这对于投资者来说应该是基本操作，且他买的都是蓝筹股，这种股票有两个特点：● 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22:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纳指翻红 台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164806868","media":"格隆汇","summary":"纳指盘初拉升翻红，现涨0.2%，科技股集体拉升，台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%，英伟达(NVDA.US)涨1%，苹果(AAPL.US)、高通(QCOM.US)、谷歌A(GOOGL.US)涨约0.3%...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=106.TSM&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　纳指盘初拉升翻红，现涨0.2%，科技股集体拉升，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a></span><span></span>(TSM.US)涨2.5%，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span><span></span>(NVDA.US)涨1%，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></span><span></span>(AAPL.US)、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a></span><span></span>(QCOM.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>(GOOGL.US)涨约0.3%。</p><p>（文章来源：格隆汇）</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纳指翻红 台积电(TSM.US)涨2.5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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为啥子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370408469","repostId":"1194421768","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194421768","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1618566364,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194421768?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 17:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"芯片行业景气度如何跟踪？看台积电的资本开支","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194421768","media":"Wind万得","summary":"1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。","content":"<p><b>核心观点</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。</p>\n<p>2、原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，它们的盈利有明显的提升，而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应。</p>\n<p>3、台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划。它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往伴随着行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透，第一波是PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，第三次就是现在。</p>\n<p>4、台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪半导体行业景气度的指标。</p>\n<p>5、智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，对应的单车半导体新增需求量至少在800美金，甚至可以高达1800-2000美金以上。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>01&nbsp;<b>全球缺芯，最受益的是哪些环节？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>站在当前的时点，全球芯片缺成一片，中国的芯片行业从年报预告和一季报预告来看，进入了非常强的爆发期，资产价格和行业基本面出现了明显的背离，行业龙头目前具备非常强的配置价值。</p>\n<p>产能的持续紧张是大家最关心的一个问题，这要从供需两方面看：</p>\n<p><b>从供给来看，过去三年全球的产能扩张并不顺利，由于中美的贸易问题和全球的疫情，导致全球的供给端连续三年下修；从需求看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，</b>包括手机需求，汽车的智能化，以及矿机等等。因此整个产业链出现了缺货的情况。</p>\n<p>从上游的核心原材料，到中游代工，到下游封装测试，全面出现了吃紧、涨价，我们重点要关注产业链价格传导的能力，<b>原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，</b>因为现在是产能为王，所以它们的盈利有明显的提升。而<b>设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应，</b>对于有议价能力的公司，我们也能在接下来的财报中看到他们的盈利能力提升。今年对大部分半导体公司来说，迎来的是从量到价到盈利能力的三击。半导体的估值经过了前一段时间的下跌消化，如果接下来迎来环比超预期的业绩，半导体在当下时点是非常值得关注的。</p>\n<p>从各环节来看，包括设计公司、重资产的代工、封装测试，以及材料和设备，<b>目前最缺的是在材料端和产能端。</b>这一轮半导体的高景气，最受益的是晶圆代工厂，具有自有产能的IDM厂商，以及配套的材料厂商，还有封测环节，这几个环节目前处于卖方市场，他们具备很强的议价能力和订单挑选能力，由于高毛利的订单做不过来，低毛利和不愿接受涨价的订单，就会面临调整，<b>由于产能利用率满载和结构改善，重资产的代工厂会出现明显的毛利率上升，</b>当然营收端也会有很不错的表现。</p>\n<p>着眼全球，台积电是最受益的，它现在处于绝对的强势地位，包括中芯国际（00981）、华虹（01347）、华润微，以及具备IDM产能的闻泰的安世、扬杰等等，这些公司都处于产能利用率满载的阶段。封测领域包括长电、晶方、通富、华天等等，也都是满载状态。材料环节，日系、韩系、美系的材料厂商是最为受益的，现在最缺的两个环节，一个是IC载板，尤其是用在高性能运算的CPU的IC载板，另一个是硅片。在材料短缺的情况下，国产化的进度会有加速，尤其是在当前的国际形势下，硅片、载板、光刻胶等会有国产化加速。相应的公司包括光刻胶领域的彤程新材、晶瑞股份以及上海新阳，IC载板领域包括兴森、深南，硅片领域包括沪硅、立昂微等。</p>\n<p><b>设计环节会出现分化，</b>有人受益有人受损，<b>小厂家是受损的一方，</b>由于是散单，在产能紧张的情况下，代工厂对它们的涨价力度会更大，现在绝大部分的上市公司，它们在各自的细分领域都是做到了龙头的地位，至少行业前三、前五的位置，<b>对于行业龙头来说，如果能顺利把材料成本的上涨转嫁给客户，由于还有固定成本的存在，它的毛利率肯定会上升，</b>因此它们的盈利能力也会有比较明显的提升，其中韦尔股份是最为受益的，也包括卓胜微、兆易，刚刚讲的IDM的闻泰、华润微等。</p>\n<p>另外一类就是Driver IC，驱动芯片这一块也是缺货最为严峻的环节，包括几家做驱动芯片的公司，晶丰明源、明微电子，以及韦尔股份，现在也都是处在一个毛利率大幅度提升的状况。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>02&nbsp;<b>台积电的资本开支规划是行业景气度的最好跟踪指标</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>剩下还有一个板块是设备，设备相对来讲属于更后周期一些。因为在产能不足的情况下，所有的厂家今年都在陆续恢复甚至上调自己的资本开支，<b>台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月2号左右再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划，</b>在这个作用之下，整个设备环节也是会被拉动一波。如果国内这些代工厂跟随龙头台积电，有一个资本开支的复苏和上调，国内的国产化设备肯定也会受益，包括北方华创、中微、精测、至纯、华峰测控。</p>\n<p>我们在去年的报告中做了一张图，就是台积电的资本开支和它的收入、股价的对应。我们复盘台积电过去二十多年的历史，<b>它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，</b>背后往往是伴随着一个行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透。<b>第一波，PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，</b>分别发生在2001年到2003年，2010年到2012年这两个时间段。<b>第三次资本开支的跃升其实就是发生现在，</b>在2018年、2019年之前，它平均每年的资本开支大概在90到100亿美金，在2019年，它把这个数字上调了50%，上调到了150亿美金，此后，又连续上调了三次，现在基本上它的资本开支规划三年1000亿，也就是说比之前多了三倍。</p>\n<p>我们认为台积电的资本开支上调一定是它看到有这么多的新增需求，未来至少五到十年间，能够看到这么多新增需求来匹配这么多的产能，它才会作出这个决定，我觉得<b>台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪指标，</b>这一轮全球半导体之所以反弹，也是发生在台积电给了这么积极的资本开支的指引之后。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>03&nbsp;<b>需求来自哪些方面？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>需求端最大的几块来自于HPC、高性能运算以及汽车的智能化和新能源化。简单点讲，<b>现在的智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，</b>它对应着半导体新增的需求量，8寸硅片，<b>新能源车这块的增量基本上都在800美金以上，</b>相当于现在高端8寸硅片的报价。一部车至少需要一片，智能化一部车需要一个算力最先进的电脑和相应的存储和传感器，一<b>部具备智能化的新能源车整个单车的新增需求，</b>我们只讲增量需求，<b>大概在1800到2000美金以上。</b>这个增量如果迅速开始渗透是相当巨大的一个数字，现有的产能肯定是没有办法去满足这块的新增需求。正是因为有越来越多的造车新势力，包括特斯拉这种厂家开始在这块发力，本轮汽车缺芯是历史上罕见的情况。</p>\n<p>HPC这一块相对来说比较难量化，因为有很多东西其实不是在一个公开透明的市场，比如说挖矿，但我们从另外一个观测的指标，显卡的销量和显卡的二手加价的幅度来看，可见一斑。基本上现在英伟达307的显卡都需要加价30%以上，甚至有的系列需要加价70%以上，这中间很多原因就是大量显卡被用于挖矿。</p>\n<p><b>HPC这一块的需求，一块是矿机，另外一块是服务器的复苏，</b>今年开始，英特尔的新平台，AMD的新平台从下半年开始有一个更新换代，这会带来服务器这一块增量需求的一波复苏，同样对于整个高端制程会产生非常大的缺口。</p>\n<p>还是要重申一点，行业需求有多好或者持续性大概有多久，我觉得看龙头的动作是最直观的。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>04&nbsp;<b>一季报的业绩高增长会不会有去年低基数的影响？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>传统的制造业，比如说被动元器件、面板，包括消费电子在内，去年因为疫情直接影响了开工，在业绩上属于低基数，</b>在这个低基数的作用下，这次一季报这些环节的增速都会非常亮眼。</p>\n<p><b>芯片板块其实相对来说去年基数的影响更小一些，</b>为什么？去年一季度是疫情发生的第一个季度，芯片环节，尤其是设计公司，他们的订单基本都在代工厂，中芯、台积电等等，在这些代工厂高度自动化的条件下去生产、运转，我们在去年一季度的时候，当时面对市场的担忧，我们把十几家上市公司拉出来聊过，当时基本上很多公司都是处在高产能利用率运转的状态。因此，去年对于芯片公司、半导体公司来讲，疫情的影响是更小一些的，或者去年因为全球担心疫情对供应链的干扰，去年一季度很多公司都是加大马力在运转。所以我们看到以韦尔股份为例，去年一季度它的收入增速是44%，在2019年四季度的基础上，增速还在增加，归母净利润的增速由于并表的影响同比增长了800%，也有接近4.5亿左右的单季度净利润，环比2019年的四季度还在继续往上。对于这种公司来讲，去年基数的影响其实不大，他们去年并不算低基数，我觉得这一波更多还是体现在他们自身的新产品以及整个行业的高景气带来的订单高速增长和盈利能力的增加。</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n芯片行业景气度如何跟踪？看台积电的资本开支\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-16 17:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>核心观点</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。</p>\n<p>2、原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，它们的盈利有明显的提升，而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应。</p>\n<p>3、台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划。它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往伴随着行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透，第一波是PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，第三次就是现在。</p>\n<p>4、台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪半导体行业景气度的指标。</p>\n<p>5、智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，对应的单车半导体新增需求量至少在800美金，甚至可以高达1800-2000美金以上。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>01&nbsp;<b>全球缺芯，最受益的是哪些环节？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>站在当前的时点，全球芯片缺成一片，中国的芯片行业从年报预告和一季报预告来看，进入了非常强的爆发期，资产价格和行业基本面出现了明显的背离，行业龙头目前具备非常强的配置价值。</p>\n<p>产能的持续紧张是大家最关心的一个问题，这要从供需两方面看：</p>\n<p><b>从供给来看，过去三年全球的产能扩张并不顺利，由于中美的贸易问题和全球的疫情，导致全球的供给端连续三年下修；从需求看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，</b>包括手机需求，汽车的智能化，以及矿机等等。因此整个产业链出现了缺货的情况。</p>\n<p>从上游的核心原材料，到中游代工，到下游封装测试，全面出现了吃紧、涨价，我们重点要关注产业链价格传导的能力，<b>原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，</b>因为现在是产能为王，所以它们的盈利有明显的提升。而<b>设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应，</b>对于有议价能力的公司，我们也能在接下来的财报中看到他们的盈利能力提升。今年对大部分半导体公司来说，迎来的是从量到价到盈利能力的三击。半导体的估值经过了前一段时间的下跌消化，如果接下来迎来环比超预期的业绩，半导体在当下时点是非常值得关注的。</p>\n<p>从各环节来看，包括设计公司、重资产的代工、封装测试，以及材料和设备，<b>目前最缺的是在材料端和产能端。</b>这一轮半导体的高景气，最受益的是晶圆代工厂，具有自有产能的IDM厂商，以及配套的材料厂商，还有封测环节，这几个环节目前处于卖方市场，他们具备很强的议价能力和订单挑选能力，由于高毛利的订单做不过来，低毛利和不愿接受涨价的订单，就会面临调整，<b>由于产能利用率满载和结构改善，重资产的代工厂会出现明显的毛利率上升，</b>当然营收端也会有很不错的表现。</p>\n<p>着眼全球，台积电是最受益的，它现在处于绝对的强势地位，包括中芯国际（00981）、华虹（01347）、华润微，以及具备IDM产能的闻泰的安世、扬杰等等，这些公司都处于产能利用率满载的阶段。封测领域包括长电、晶方、通富、华天等等，也都是满载状态。材料环节，日系、韩系、美系的材料厂商是最为受益的，现在最缺的两个环节，一个是IC载板，尤其是用在高性能运算的CPU的IC载板，另一个是硅片。在材料短缺的情况下，国产化的进度会有加速，尤其是在当前的国际形势下，硅片、载板、光刻胶等会有国产化加速。相应的公司包括光刻胶领域的彤程新材、晶瑞股份以及上海新阳，IC载板领域包括兴森、深南，硅片领域包括沪硅、立昂微等。</p>\n<p><b>设计环节会出现分化，</b>有人受益有人受损，<b>小厂家是受损的一方，</b>由于是散单，在产能紧张的情况下，代工厂对它们的涨价力度会更大，现在绝大部分的上市公司，它们在各自的细分领域都是做到了龙头的地位，至少行业前三、前五的位置，<b>对于行业龙头来说，如果能顺利把材料成本的上涨转嫁给客户，由于还有固定成本的存在，它的毛利率肯定会上升，</b>因此它们的盈利能力也会有比较明显的提升，其中韦尔股份是最为受益的，也包括卓胜微、兆易，刚刚讲的IDM的闻泰、华润微等。</p>\n<p>另外一类就是Driver IC，驱动芯片这一块也是缺货最为严峻的环节，包括几家做驱动芯片的公司，晶丰明源、明微电子，以及韦尔股份，现在也都是处在一个毛利率大幅度提升的状况。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>02&nbsp;<b>台积电的资本开支规划是行业景气度的最好跟踪指标</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>剩下还有一个板块是设备，设备相对来讲属于更后周期一些。因为在产能不足的情况下，所有的厂家今年都在陆续恢复甚至上调自己的资本开支，<b>台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月2号左右再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划，</b>在这个作用之下，整个设备环节也是会被拉动一波。如果国内这些代工厂跟随龙头台积电，有一个资本开支的复苏和上调，国内的国产化设备肯定也会受益，包括北方华创、中微、精测、至纯、华峰测控。</p>\n<p>我们在去年的报告中做了一张图，就是台积电的资本开支和它的收入、股价的对应。我们复盘台积电过去二十多年的历史，<b>它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，</b>背后往往是伴随着一个行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透。<b>第一波，PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，</b>分别发生在2001年到2003年，2010年到2012年这两个时间段。<b>第三次资本开支的跃升其实就是发生现在，</b>在2018年、2019年之前，它平均每年的资本开支大概在90到100亿美金，在2019年，它把这个数字上调了50%，上调到了150亿美金，此后，又连续上调了三次，现在基本上它的资本开支规划三年1000亿，也就是说比之前多了三倍。</p>\n<p>我们认为台积电的资本开支上调一定是它看到有这么多的新增需求，未来至少五到十年间，能够看到这么多新增需求来匹配这么多的产能，它才会作出这个决定，我觉得<b>台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪指标，</b>这一轮全球半导体之所以反弹，也是发生在台积电给了这么积极的资本开支的指引之后。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>03&nbsp;<b>需求来自哪些方面？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>需求端最大的几块来自于HPC、高性能运算以及汽车的智能化和新能源化。简单点讲，<b>现在的智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，</b>它对应着半导体新增的需求量，8寸硅片，<b>新能源车这块的增量基本上都在800美金以上，</b>相当于现在高端8寸硅片的报价。一部车至少需要一片，智能化一部车需要一个算力最先进的电脑和相应的存储和传感器，一<b>部具备智能化的新能源车整个单车的新增需求，</b>我们只讲增量需求，<b>大概在1800到2000美金以上。</b>这个增量如果迅速开始渗透是相当巨大的一个数字，现有的产能肯定是没有办法去满足这块的新增需求。正是因为有越来越多的造车新势力，包括特斯拉这种厂家开始在这块发力，本轮汽车缺芯是历史上罕见的情况。</p>\n<p>HPC这一块相对来说比较难量化，因为有很多东西其实不是在一个公开透明的市场，比如说挖矿，但我们从另外一个观测的指标，显卡的销量和显卡的二手加价的幅度来看，可见一斑。基本上现在英伟达307的显卡都需要加价30%以上，甚至有的系列需要加价70%以上，这中间很多原因就是大量显卡被用于挖矿。</p>\n<p><b>HPC这一块的需求，一块是矿机，另外一块是服务器的复苏，</b>今年开始，英特尔的新平台，AMD的新平台从下半年开始有一个更新换代，这会带来服务器这一块增量需求的一波复苏，同样对于整个高端制程会产生非常大的缺口。</p>\n<p>还是要重申一点，行业需求有多好或者持续性大概有多久，我觉得看龙头的动作是最直观的。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>04&nbsp;<b>一季报的业绩高增长会不会有去年低基数的影响？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>传统的制造业，比如说被动元器件、面板，包括消费电子在内，去年因为疫情直接影响了开工，在业绩上属于低基数，</b>在这个低基数的作用下，这次一季报这些环节的增速都会非常亮眼。</p>\n<p><b>芯片板块其实相对来说去年基数的影响更小一些，</b>为什么？去年一季度是疫情发生的第一个季度，芯片环节，尤其是设计公司，他们的订单基本都在代工厂，中芯、台积电等等，在这些代工厂高度自动化的条件下去生产、运转，我们在去年一季度的时候，当时面对市场的担忧，我们把十几家上市公司拉出来聊过，当时基本上很多公司都是处在高产能利用率运转的状态。因此，去年对于芯片公司、半导体公司来讲，疫情的影响是更小一些的，或者去年因为全球担心疫情对供应链的干扰，去年一季度很多公司都是加大马力在运转。所以我们看到以韦尔股份为例，去年一季度它的收入增速是44%，在2019年四季度的基础上，增速还在增加，归母净利润的增速由于并表的影响同比增长了800%，也有接近4.5亿左右的单季度净利润，环比2019年的四季度还在继续往上。对于这种公司来讲，去年基数的影响其实不大，他们去年并不算低基数，我觉得这一波更多还是体现在他们自身的新产品以及整个行业的高景气带来的订单高速增长和盈利能力的增加。</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194421768","content_text":"核心观点\n\n\n\n\n\n1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。\n2、原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，它们的盈利有明显的提升，而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应。\n3、台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划。它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往伴随着行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透，第一波是PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，第三次就是现在。\n4、台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪半导体行业景气度的指标。\n5、智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，对应的单车半导体新增需求量至少在800美金，甚至可以高达1800-2000美金以上。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n01 全球缺芯，最受益的是哪些环节？\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n站在当前的时点，全球芯片缺成一片，中国的芯片行业从年报预告和一季报预告来看，进入了非常强的爆发期，资产价格和行业基本面出现了明显的背离，行业龙头目前具备非常强的配置价值。\n产能的持续紧张是大家最关心的一个问题，这要从供需两方面看：\n从供给来看，过去三年全球的产能扩张并不顺利，由于中美的贸易问题和全球的疫情，导致全球的供给端连续三年下修；从需求看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机需求，汽车的智能化，以及矿机等等。因此整个产业链出现了缺货的情况。\n从上游的核心原材料，到中游代工，到下游封装测试，全面出现了吃紧、涨价，我们重点要关注产业链价格传导的能力，原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，所以它们的盈利有明显的提升。而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应，对于有议价能力的公司，我们也能在接下来的财报中看到他们的盈利能力提升。今年对大部分半导体公司来说，迎来的是从量到价到盈利能力的三击。半导体的估值经过了前一段时间的下跌消化，如果接下来迎来环比超预期的业绩，半导体在当下时点是非常值得关注的。\n从各环节来看，包括设计公司、重资产的代工、封装测试，以及材料和设备，目前最缺的是在材料端和产能端。这一轮半导体的高景气，最受益的是晶圆代工厂，具有自有产能的IDM厂商，以及配套的材料厂商，还有封测环节，这几个环节目前处于卖方市场，他们具备很强的议价能力和订单挑选能力，由于高毛利的订单做不过来，低毛利和不愿接受涨价的订单，就会面临调整，由于产能利用率满载和结构改善，重资产的代工厂会出现明显的毛利率上升，当然营收端也会有很不错的表现。\n着眼全球，台积电是最受益的，它现在处于绝对的强势地位，包括中芯国际（00981）、华虹（01347）、华润微，以及具备IDM产能的闻泰的安世、扬杰等等，这些公司都处于产能利用率满载的阶段。封测领域包括长电、晶方、通富、华天等等，也都是满载状态。材料环节，日系、韩系、美系的材料厂商是最为受益的，现在最缺的两个环节，一个是IC载板，尤其是用在高性能运算的CPU的IC载板，另一个是硅片。在材料短缺的情况下，国产化的进度会有加速，尤其是在当前的国际形势下，硅片、载板、光刻胶等会有国产化加速。相应的公司包括光刻胶领域的彤程新材、晶瑞股份以及上海新阳，IC载板领域包括兴森、深南，硅片领域包括沪硅、立昂微等。\n设计环节会出现分化，有人受益有人受损，小厂家是受损的一方，由于是散单，在产能紧张的情况下，代工厂对它们的涨价力度会更大，现在绝大部分的上市公司，它们在各自的细分领域都是做到了龙头的地位，至少行业前三、前五的位置，对于行业龙头来说，如果能顺利把材料成本的上涨转嫁给客户，由于还有固定成本的存在，它的毛利率肯定会上升，因此它们的盈利能力也会有比较明显的提升，其中韦尔股份是最为受益的，也包括卓胜微、兆易，刚刚讲的IDM的闻泰、华润微等。\n另外一类就是Driver IC，驱动芯片这一块也是缺货最为严峻的环节，包括几家做驱动芯片的公司，晶丰明源、明微电子，以及韦尔股份，现在也都是处在一个毛利率大幅度提升的状况。\n\n\n\n\n\n02 台积电的资本开支规划是行业景气度的最好跟踪指标\n\n\n\n\n\n剩下还有一个板块是设备，设备相对来讲属于更后周期一些。因为在产能不足的情况下，所有的厂家今年都在陆续恢复甚至上调自己的资本开支，台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月2号左右再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划，在这个作用之下，整个设备环节也是会被拉动一波。如果国内这些代工厂跟随龙头台积电，有一个资本开支的复苏和上调，国内的国产化设备肯定也会受益，包括北方华创、中微、精测、至纯、华峰测控。\n我们在去年的报告中做了一张图，就是台积电的资本开支和它的收入、股价的对应。我们复盘台积电过去二十多年的历史，它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往是伴随着一个行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透。第一波，PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，分别发生在2001年到2003年，2010年到2012年这两个时间段。第三次资本开支的跃升其实就是发生现在，在2018年、2019年之前，它平均每年的资本开支大概在90到100亿美金，在2019年，它把这个数字上调了50%，上调到了150亿美金，此后，又连续上调了三次，现在基本上它的资本开支规划三年1000亿，也就是说比之前多了三倍。\n我们认为台积电的资本开支上调一定是它看到有这么多的新增需求，未来至少五到十年间，能够看到这么多新增需求来匹配这么多的产能，它才会作出这个决定，我觉得台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪指标，这一轮全球半导体之所以反弹，也是发生在台积电给了这么积极的资本开支的指引之后。\n\n\n\n\n\n03 需求来自哪些方面？\n\n\n\n\n\n需求端最大的几块来自于HPC、高性能运算以及汽车的智能化和新能源化。简单点讲，现在的智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，它对应着半导体新增的需求量，8寸硅片，新能源车这块的增量基本上都在800美金以上，相当于现在高端8寸硅片的报价。一部车至少需要一片，智能化一部车需要一个算力最先进的电脑和相应的存储和传感器，一部具备智能化的新能源车整个单车的新增需求，我们只讲增量需求，大概在1800到2000美金以上。这个增量如果迅速开始渗透是相当巨大的一个数字，现有的产能肯定是没有办法去满足这块的新增需求。正是因为有越来越多的造车新势力，包括特斯拉这种厂家开始在这块发力，本轮汽车缺芯是历史上罕见的情况。\nHPC这一块相对来说比较难量化，因为有很多东西其实不是在一个公开透明的市场，比如说挖矿，但我们从另外一个观测的指标，显卡的销量和显卡的二手加价的幅度来看，可见一斑。基本上现在英伟达307的显卡都需要加价30%以上，甚至有的系列需要加价70%以上，这中间很多原因就是大量显卡被用于挖矿。\nHPC这一块的需求，一块是矿机，另外一块是服务器的复苏，今年开始，英特尔的新平台，AMD的新平台从下半年开始有一个更新换代，这会带来服务器这一块增量需求的一波复苏，同样对于整个高端制程会产生非常大的缺口。\n还是要重申一点，行业需求有多好或者持续性大概有多久，我觉得看龙头的动作是最直观的。\n\n\n\n\n\n04 一季报的业绩高增长会不会有去年低基数的影响？\n\n\n\n\n\n传统的制造业，比如说被动元器件、面板，包括消费电子在内，去年因为疫情直接影响了开工，在业绩上属于低基数，在这个低基数的作用下，这次一季报这些环节的增速都会非常亮眼。\n芯片板块其实相对来说去年基数的影响更小一些，为什么？去年一季度是疫情发生的第一个季度，芯片环节，尤其是设计公司，他们的订单基本都在代工厂，中芯、台积电等等，在这些代工厂高度自动化的条件下去生产、运转，我们在去年一季度的时候，当时面对市场的担忧，我们把十几家上市公司拉出来聊过，当时基本上很多公司都是处在高产能利用率运转的状态。因此，去年对于芯片公司、半导体公司来讲，疫情的影响是更小一些的，或者去年因为全球担心疫情对供应链的干扰，去年一季度很多公司都是加大马力在运转。所以我们看到以韦尔股份为例，去年一季度它的收入增速是44%，在2019年四季度的基础上，增速还在增加，归母净利润的增速由于并表的影响同比增长了800%，也有接近4.5亿左右的单季度净利润，环比2019年的四季度还在继续往上。对于这种公司来讲，去年基数的影响其实不大，他们去年并不算低基数，我觉得这一波更多还是体现在他们自身的新产品以及整个行业的高景气带来的订单高速增长和盈利能力的增加。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358490984,"gmtCreate":1616720318248,"gmtModify":1616720318248,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还OK吧？","listText":"还OK吧？","text":"还OK吧？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6ef9015191f6972f00363e04a800ec","width":"750","height":"2176"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358490984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320011953,"gmtCreate":1614989557272,"gmtModify":1703483950896,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"凉凉的....","listText":"凉凉的....","text":"凉凉的....","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecb78e5f7df5bd2d381a8ac6f159baf","width":"750","height":"2285"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320011953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387870636,"gmtCreate":1613741174625,"gmtModify":1613744143037,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>稳如老牛","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>稳如老牛","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$稳如老牛","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f219280f7c6bc72839eeb5cdc08e310a","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387870636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388724293,"gmtCreate":1613100038112,"gmtModify":1613100038112,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分享","listText":"分享","text":"分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388724293","repostId":"2110026435","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2110026435","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1613063460,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110026435?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-12 01:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110026435","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW UPDATE: Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trad","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW UPDATE: Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out\n</p>\n<p>\n  One of the most popular ways to gain exposure to the cannabis industry was facing the worst single-day decline since it was created back in 2015, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJX\">ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJ\">$(MJ)$</a> on Thursday was down more than 20% and on track to snap a three-day win streak as it heads to its worst day since inception, Dec. 3 of 2015. Stunningly, the ETF was still nursing an 11% gain for the week and an 81% gain in the year to date, highlighting the nearly unfettered appetite for pot stocks that has gripped the market in recent days. The decline for the popular ETF comes as Cannabis shares were tumbling sharply across the board Thursday, with many of the sector's best performers a day earlier surrendering all those gains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> (TLRY), a recent market darling, was last down 42%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APHA\">Aphria Inc.</a> (APHA.T), with which it is merging, was down over 30%. Pot stocks have been reignited on bullish bets for positive political developments and a better legal landscape under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, the broader market was seeing tepid gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  was off 0.2%, the S&amp;P 500 index  trading flat and the Nasdaq Composite Index  gaining a modest 0.3% on the session. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 11, 2021 12:11 ET (17:11 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-12 01:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW UPDATE: Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out\n</p>\n<p>\n  One of the most popular ways to gain exposure to the cannabis industry was facing the worst single-day decline since it was created back in 2015, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJX\">ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MJ\">$(MJ)$</a> on Thursday was down more than 20% and on track to snap a three-day win streak as it heads to its worst day since inception, Dec. 3 of 2015. Stunningly, the ETF was still nursing an 11% gain for the week and an 81% gain in the year to date, highlighting the nearly unfettered appetite for pot stocks that has gripped the market in recent days. The decline for the popular ETF comes as Cannabis shares were tumbling sharply across the board Thursday, with many of the sector's best performers a day earlier surrendering all those gains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> (TLRY), a recent market darling, was last down 42%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APHA\">Aphria Inc.</a> (APHA.T), with which it is merging, was down over 30%. Pot stocks have been reignited on bullish bets for positive political developments and a better legal landscape under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, the broader market was seeing tepid gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  was off 0.2%, the S&amp;P 500 index  trading flat and the Nasdaq Composite Index  gaining a modest 0.3% on the session. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 11, 2021 12:11 ET (17:11 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APHA":"Aphria Inc.","MJ":"Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF","TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110026435","content_text":"MW UPDATE: Pot stocks ETF tumbles 20% and faces its worst daily drop in its history as Cannabis trade flames out\n\n\n  One of the most popular ways to gain exposure to the cannabis industry was facing the worst single-day decline since it was created back in 2015, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF $(MJ)$ on Thursday was down more than 20% and on track to snap a three-day win streak as it heads to its worst day since inception, Dec. 3 of 2015. Stunningly, the ETF was still nursing an 11% gain for the week and an 81% gain in the year to date, highlighting the nearly unfettered appetite for pot stocks that has gripped the market in recent days. The decline for the popular ETF comes as Cannabis shares were tumbling sharply across the board Thursday, with many of the sector's best performers a day earlier surrendering all those gains. Tilray Inc. (TLRY), a recent market darling, was last down 42%, while Aphria Inc. (APHA.T), with which it is merging, was down over 30%. Pot stocks have been reignited on bullish bets for positive political developments and a better legal landscape under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, the broader market was seeing tepid gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  was off 0.2%, the S&P 500 index  trading flat and the Nasdaq Composite Index  gaining a modest 0.3% on the session. \n\n\n  -Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  February 11, 2021 12:11 ET (17:11 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388384353,"gmtCreate":1613023760572,"gmtModify":1703768480872,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388384353","repostId":"1131026868","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381902217,"gmtCreate":1612918372239,"gmtModify":1703766892363,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381902217","repostId":"1131612823","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314549173,"gmtCreate":1612364125892,"gmtModify":1703760917440,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啥情况？","listText":"啥情况？","text":"啥情况？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314549173","repostId":"2108769460","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2108769460","pubTimestamp":1612357200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2108769460?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-03 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"LAWSUIT FILED: QuantumScape Corp. Sued for Violations of the Federal Securities Laws; Investors Should Contact Block & Leviton LLP","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2108769460","media":"GlobeNewswire","summary":"BOSTON, Feb. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- On January 4, 2021, an article was published on SeekingAlp","content":"<html><body><p>BOSTON, Feb. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- On January 4, 2021, an article was published on <em>SeekingAlpha</em> flagging several risks associated with QuantumScape Corporation’s (NYSE: QS) solid-state batteries that make them “completely unacceptable for real world field electric vehicles.” Specifically, the article provided that the batteries’ power mean they “will only last for 260 cycles or about 75,000 miles of aggressive driving.” Because solid-state batteries are temperature-sensitive, “the power and cycle tests at 30 and 45 degrees above would have been significantly worse if run even a few degrees lower.” The market was stunned by this news, and the stock price fell $34.49 per share, to close at just $49.96. This represents a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day drop of approximately 41%, representing billions of dollars in lost market capitalization.<br/></p>\n<p>Lawsuits have been filed against QuantumScape and certain of its executives in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The lawsuits are captioned <em>Marliat v. QuantumScape Corp., et al.</em>, No. 3:21-cv-00058 (N.D. Cal.), and <em>Gowda v. QuantumScape Corp., et al.</em>, No. 3:21:cv-00070 (N.D. Cal.). The suits allege that after QuantumScape went public via a business combination in late 2020, QuantumScape misled investors as to the purported success of its solid-state battery power, battery life, and energy density. The lawsuit further alleges that QuantumScape misled investors as to its ability to scale its technology to the multi-layer cell necessary to power electric vehicles.</p>\n<p>If you purchased or acquired shares of QuantumScape between November 27, 2020 and December 31, 2020 and lost money, you are strongly encouraged to contact the nationally-recognized securities law firm Block &amp; Leviton LLP (www.blockleviton.com) at (617) 398-5600, via email at cases@blockleviton.com, or at https://www.blockleviton.com/cases/qs. The deadline to move the Court to be appointed lead plaintiff is March 8, 2021.</p>\n<p>Block &amp; Leviton LLP is a firm dedicated to representing investors and maintaining the integrity of the country’s financial markets. The firm represents many of the nation’s largest institutional investors as well as individual investors in securities litigation throughout the United States. The firm’s lawyers have recovered billions of dollars for its clients.</p>\n<p>This notice may constitute attorney advertising.</p>\n<p>CONTACT:<br/>BLOCK &amp; LEVITON LLP<br/>260 Franklin St., Suite 1860<br/>Boston, MA 02110<br/>Phone: (617) 398-5600<br/>Email: cases@blockleviton.com <br/>SOURCE: Block &amp; Leviton LLP<br/>www.blockleviton.com </p>\n<br/>\n<img height=\"1\" src=\"https://ml.globenewswire.com/release/track/e6347875-cb05-4e23-813e-8674034a44ba\" width=\"1\"/></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>LAWSUIT FILED: QuantumScape Corp. Sued for Violations of the Federal Securities Laws; Investors Should Contact Block & Leviton LLP</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLAWSUIT FILED: QuantumScape Corp. Sued for Violations of the Federal Securities Laws; Investors Should Contact Block & Leviton LLP\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-03 21:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lawsuit-filed-quantumscape-corp-sued-130000127.html><strong>GlobeNewswire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BOSTON, Feb. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- On January 4, 2021, an article was published on SeekingAlpha flagging several risks associated with QuantumScape Corporation’s (NYSE: QS) solid-state ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lawsuit-filed-quantumscape-corp-sued-130000127.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/o7KqpwiBaw6bgxBrqvgFeg--~B/aD0yMDE7dz02NzU7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/i4QpY2npwZC0uD_YlWi7OQ--~B/aD0yMDE7dz02NzU7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/globenewswire.com/750cd7a9026c9ad9e8a6e212ff6cf660","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lawsuit-filed-quantumscape-corp-sued-130000127.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2108769460","content_text":"BOSTON, Feb. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- On January 4, 2021, an article was published on SeekingAlpha flagging several risks associated with QuantumScape Corporation’s (NYSE: QS) solid-state batteries that make them “completely unacceptable for real world field electric vehicles.” Specifically, the article provided that the batteries’ power mean they “will only last for 260 cycles or about 75,000 miles of aggressive driving.” Because solid-state batteries are temperature-sensitive, “the power and cycle tests at 30 and 45 degrees above would have been significantly worse if run even a few degrees lower.” The market was stunned by this news, and the stock price fell $34.49 per share, to close at just $49.96. This represents a one-day drop of approximately 41%, representing billions of dollars in lost market capitalization.\nLawsuits have been filed against QuantumScape and certain of its executives in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The lawsuits are captioned Marliat v. QuantumScape Corp., et al., No. 3:21-cv-00058 (N.D. Cal.), and Gowda v. QuantumScape Corp., et al., No. 3:21:cv-00070 (N.D. Cal.). The suits allege that after QuantumScape went public via a business combination in late 2020, QuantumScape misled investors as to the purported success of its solid-state battery power, battery life, and energy density. The lawsuit further alleges that QuantumScape misled investors as to its ability to scale its technology to the multi-layer cell necessary to power electric vehicles.\nIf you purchased or acquired shares of QuantumScape between November 27, 2020 and December 31, 2020 and lost money, you are strongly encouraged to contact the nationally-recognized securities law firm Block & Leviton LLP (www.blockleviton.com) at (617) 398-5600, via email at cases@blockleviton.com, or at https://www.blockleviton.com/cases/qs. The deadline to move the Court to be appointed lead plaintiff is March 8, 2021.\nBlock & Leviton LLP is a firm dedicated to representing investors and maintaining the integrity of the country’s financial markets. The firm represents many of the nation’s largest institutional investors as well as individual investors in securities litigation throughout the United States. The firm’s lawyers have recovered billions of dollars for its clients.\nThis notice may constitute attorney advertising.\nCONTACT:BLOCK & LEVITON LLP260 Franklin St., Suite 1860Boston, MA 02110Phone: (617) 398-5600Email: cases@blockleviton.com SOURCE: Block & Leviton LLPwww.blockleviton.com","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312952800,"gmtCreate":1612001159000,"gmtModify":1703757385559,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312952800","repostId":"313046688","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":313046688,"gmtCreate":1611644753044,"gmtModify":1703751878699,"author":{"id":"3460459258865476","authorId":"3460459258865476","name":"新经济IPO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d817b2039a58fbb32ab93d2a5d56450","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"乱拳打死老师傅？美国大空头遭散户狙击，一夜浮亏500亿","htmlText":"因为新冠疫情，2020年全世界都目睹了很多前所未见的“意外”。2021年，这种意外和奇迹仍在继续，至少在股市上是如此。过去两周，美国散户和机构投资人在一只名不见经传的小股票游戏驿站&nbsp;(NYSE:GME)上，展开了生死搏杀，虽血不见刃，但过程之惊心动魄，足以载入世界股票市场经典案例史册。截至目前，这场战争的结果，以做多的散户大胜、做空机构惨败告终，做空机构累计损失预计高达100亿美元（约合700亿元人民币）。&nbsp;1月25日，游戏驿站&nbsp;(NYSE:GME)开盘96.73美元，涨幅超过48%，这一涨幅令该股的做空者目瞪口呆。实际上，在上周五，游戏驿站&nbsp;(NYSE:GME)涨幅就已高达78%，盘中至少四次熔断，截至收盘上涨51%，至65.01美元，市值为53亿美元。&nbsp;25日开盘后，游戏驿站&nbsp;股价继续飙升，最高达到159.17美元，涨幅接近145%！截至收盘涨幅缩水至18.12%，报76.79美元。过去两周，该股从20美元一路狂涨，累计涨幅高达384%，最高涨幅795%。伴随着股价的上涨，游戏驿站的交易量也很惊人。25日，该股成交总额为169.52亿美元，换手率255%，买卖双方都陷入了狂热状态。上周五，游戏驿站的成交量为118亿美元，换手率为282%。&nbsp;大空头香橼遭散户狙击&nbsp;游戏驿站股价飙升背后，是美国散户与机构博弈的一场经典战役。&nbsp;游戏驿站主要经营与电子游戏有关联的电子商务，售卖电子游戏机，电脑游戏，还有游戏杂志、攻略等，另外一块主要利润来自于从顾客手中回收旧版游戏与电影，再以更高价格卖出来。GameStop创立于1984年，在美国有6000多家分店，主要售卖游戏机和游戏碟，为全球最大电玩产品零售商。但是，随着移动互联网的发展，游戏玩家都在线下载游戏，GameStop的生意开始每况愈下，连续多","listText":"因为新冠疫情，2020年全世界都目睹了很多前所未见的“意外”。2021年，这种意外和奇迹仍在继续，至少在股市上是如此。过去两周，美国散户和机构投资人在一只名不见经传的小股票游戏驿站&nbsp;(NYSE:GME)上，展开了生死搏杀，虽血不见刃，但过程之惊心动魄，足以载入世界股票市场经典案例史册。截至目前，这场战争的结果，以做多的散户大胜、做空机构惨败告终，做空机构累计损失预计高达100亿美元（约合700亿元人民币）。&nbsp;1月25日，游戏驿站&nbsp;(NYSE:GME)开盘96.73美元，涨幅超过48%，这一涨幅令该股的做空者目瞪口呆。实际上，在上周五，游戏驿站&nbsp;(NYSE:GME)涨幅就已高达78%，盘中至少四次熔断，截至收盘上涨51%，至65.01美元，市值为53亿美元。&nbsp;25日开盘后，游戏驿站&nbsp;股价继续飙升，最高达到159.17美元，涨幅接近145%！截至收盘涨幅缩水至18.12%，报76.79美元。过去两周，该股从20美元一路狂涨，累计涨幅高达384%，最高涨幅795%。伴随着股价的上涨，游戏驿站的交易量也很惊人。25日，该股成交总额为169.52亿美元，换手率255%，买卖双方都陷入了狂热状态。上周五，游戏驿站的成交量为118亿美元，换手率为282%。&nbsp;大空头香橼遭散户狙击&nbsp;游戏驿站股价飙升背后，是美国散户与机构博弈的一场经典战役。&nbsp;游戏驿站主要经营与电子游戏有关联的电子商务，售卖电子游戏机，电脑游戏，还有游戏杂志、攻略等，另外一块主要利润来自于从顾客手中回收旧版游戏与电影，再以更高价格卖出来。GameStop创立于1984年，在美国有6000多家分店，主要售卖游戏机和游戏碟，为全球最大电玩产品零售商。但是，随着移动互联网的发展，游戏玩家都在线下载游戏，GameStop的生意开始每况愈下，连续多","text":"因为新冠疫情，2020年全世界都目睹了很多前所未见的“意外”。2021年，这种意外和奇迹仍在继续，至少在股市上是如此。过去两周，美国散户和机构投资人在一只名不见经传的小股票游戏驿站 (NYSE:GME)上，展开了生死搏杀，虽血不见刃，但过程之惊心动魄，足以载入世界股票市场经典案例史册。截至目前，这场战争的结果，以做多的散户大胜、做空机构惨败告终，做空机构累计损失预计高达100亿美元（约合700亿元人民币）。 1月25日，游戏驿站 (NYSE:GME)开盘96.73美元，涨幅超过48%，这一涨幅令该股的做空者目瞪口呆。实际上，在上周五，游戏驿站 (NYSE:GME)涨幅就已高达78%，盘中至少四次熔断，截至收盘上涨51%，至65.01美元，市值为53亿美元。 25日开盘后，游戏驿站 股价继续飙升，最高达到159.17美元，涨幅接近145%！截至收盘涨幅缩水至18.12%，报76.79美元。过去两周，该股从20美元一路狂涨，累计涨幅高达384%，最高涨幅795%。伴随着股价的上涨，游戏驿站的交易量也很惊人。25日，该股成交总额为169.52亿美元，换手率255%，买卖双方都陷入了狂热状态。上周五，游戏驿站的成交量为118亿美元，换手率为282%。 大空头香橼遭散户狙击 游戏驿站股价飙升背后，是美国散户与机构博弈的一场经典战役。 游戏驿站主要经营与电子游戏有关联的电子商务，售卖电子游戏机，电脑游戏，还有游戏杂志、攻略等，另外一块主要利润来自于从顾客手中回收旧版游戏与电影，再以更高价格卖出来。GameStop创立于1984年，在美国有6000多家分店，主要售卖游戏机和游戏碟，为全球最大电玩产品零售商。但是，随着移动互联网的发展，游戏玩家都在线下载游戏，GameStop的生意开始每况愈下，连续多","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc95f9fe1d00a2b14233b677b1590118","width":"763","height":"375"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313046688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603876939,"gmtCreate":1638402510503,"gmtModify":1638402510503,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUE\">$纽柯钢铁(NUE)$</a>该入坑吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUE\">$纽柯钢铁(NUE)$</a>该入坑吗？","text":"$纽柯钢铁(NUE)$该入坑吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860e4f295682689b507e04a1485abd0c","width":"750","height":"2104"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603876939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814064725,"gmtCreate":1630729329967,"gmtModify":1630729329967,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学习[强]&nbsp;","listText":"学习[强]&nbsp;","text":"学习[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814064725","repostId":"2164840520","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164840520","pubTimestamp":1630639626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164840520?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"聪明钱闻风而动！新能源革命的又一个爆发领域？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164840520","media":"格隆汇","summary":"看看机构在推什么？","content":"<p>可以说，过去及未来相当长的一段时间，我们会围绕这个图进行投资，从能源生产端到能源消纳端，再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是，不同的时点，市场关注的方向不同而已。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b2701013b2e0f1fc8cae67aa0be96d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>风电昨天变成了市场大热门，在wind的概念板块中，以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一，整个板块28只个股，17只钉在了涨停板上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdba05a1d348078ae80060dd5cf4e576\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从消息的角度，全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示，将暂停在中国的风机销售业务，并在全球范围内涨价5％。Nauen表示，和许多西方其他整机供应商一样，西门子歌美飒在中国本土整机商崛起后，竞争力已大不如前。因此，中国市场已经不是的西门子歌美飒关注的重点，同时正在考虑放弃的还有俄罗斯和土耳其市场。</p>\n<p>另外一个，中国正在规划风电光伏大基地项目，预计整体总量为400GW，预计有一半的规模将在十四五建成，这是继整县推进之后，新能源国家的又一重大规划，将推动中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>项目建设再上新台阶，预计十四五年均新增装机将从100GW上调到130-150GW，比预期提升30%-50%。其中预计风电光伏各占一半，另有少量光热项目。</p>\n<p>这两个消息也是引爆昨天市场的一个导火索。</p>\n<p>看了下风电的行业情况</p>\n<p>行业空间，未来的世界肯定是可再生能源的，这个肯定没错，而可再生能源的几个种类，水电资源禀赋的天花板很明显，核电生物能等等这些也无法上量，唯二能够大规模上量的，只有光伏和风电。</p>\n<p>风电的行业空间，在2022-2025年大概平均年复合的新增装机容量增速大概是15%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8553d825d3734f02de69b9d6b88f576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>15%按理说是个很高的增速，但是和光伏比下，就稍微低一点，光伏预计未来几年的年复合增速在25%，保守一点，也在20%之上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff58e2dc2dfd383eb7e4e3ab62f252e6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从成本角度来说，陆上风电的平准化度电成本是要低于光伏的，但总安装成本，还是没有光伏下降但快，而且预计未来光伏下降的更快。这些也是市场喜欢光伏，但不喜欢风电的主要几个原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f735d96f16012bc996bcd4eb3487e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d18a9a93342f5702ef6398af8215c02\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>行业格局，从过去两年风机市占率的情况看，这个行业的格局还是比较乱，19年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002202\">金风科技</a>，远景能源，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601615\">明阳智能</a>占比较高，三家占比超过50%。2020年，头部公司又多了一个上海电器。到2021年上半年，行业格局几乎又换一个样子，变成了远景，中车风电，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02208\">金风科技</a>和运达风电。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc769c1a0c1143159890a2a60c62060\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec613039aab219f8b06bc31ad00f3b43\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这样的竞争格局，基本可以说明一件事，这个行业的技术门槛不是很高，公司可能拼的是成本控制，销售，或者渠道等其他因素。</p>\n<p>虽然风电这个行业似乎不如光伏，但是架不住，风电板块的估值低啊。在通威，隆基50倍估值的时候，风电的几个龙头，金风科技18倍，明阳智能23倍。</p>\n<p>然后从产业链的角度来说，风塔和叶片占了主要的成本。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78759df9faf7a3d92a0310b019f4385a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b546de023df94847dff4e21bf20b01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>关于投资主线，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>建议关注两条主线——主机厂和核心零部件</p>\n<p><b>一、主机厂短期业绩弹性大</b></p>\n<p>主机厂短期业绩弹性大。一般主机厂收入确认中当年新签订单约占 25%，去年新签订单占比50%和前年新签订单占比25%。1)从招标量来看，2019年、2020年国内风电机组招标量分别为65.2GW、31.1GW；2)从招标价格来看，以3MW机组为例，2019年6-12月平均价格为3875元/KW、2020年平均价格为3618 元/KW(不含塔筒价格)，而2021年3、4月平均招标价格为2672元/KW，同比2019年6-12月下降31%，同比 2020年下降26%，因此主机厂2021年确认收入中将有75%左右来自2019年、2002年签订的高价订单；3)从零部件价格来看，陆上风电经历2019年、2020年大幅抢装，2021年不再补贴后零部件供应价格也出现一定程度的下降。高价订单确认收入和陆上风电零部件价格下跌带来的剪刀差扩大将提升主机厂的毛利率。建议关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300772\">运达股份</a>、明阳智能和金风科技。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa505d0e88b857fc14545a4a48deb885\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、核心零部件</b></p>\n<p>核心零部件看好市场规模较大、竞争格局良好的细分领域龙头。推荐具备全球竞争优势、领先布局大型化铸件的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603218\">日月股份</a>、行业集中度高的主轴供应商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300443\">金雷股份</a>、国产化程的度低的轴承生产商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300850\">新强联</a>，关注市场空间大、竞争格局较为分散的塔筒龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002531\">天顺风能</a>、叶片供应商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002080\">中材科技</a>。</p>\n<p>风力发电机组主要部件包括叶片、变频器、齿轮箱、电气控制系统、发电机、主轴、轮毂等。因驱动方式的不同，双馈式和直驱式风机零部件有所差异，主要涉及到有无齿 轮箱。以明阳智能 2.0MW 的双馈式风力发电机组风机为例:单台风机售价639万元，成 本 528万元，其中叶片占材料成本比重最高(23.89%)，依次为齿轮箱(18.67%)、变桨 控制系统(17.05%)、发电机(6.67%)。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a77598ee15052bf7beb0aefa5e65d4bd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"769\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>聪明钱闻风而动！新能源革命的又一个爆发领域？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n聪明钱闻风而动！新能源革命的又一个爆发领域？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 11:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>可以说，过去及未来相当长的一段时间，我们会围绕这个图进行投资，从能源生产端到能源消纳端，再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是，不同的时点，市场关注的方向不同而已。\n风电昨天变成了市场大热门，在wind的概念板块中，以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一，整个板块28只个股，17只钉在了涨停板上。\n\n从消息的角度，全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace8009badd158895dca20fb627e1735","relate_stocks":{"159875":"新能源","160640":"新能源","399941":"新能源","000941.SH":"新能源"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2164840520","content_text":"可以说，过去及未来相当长的一段时间，我们会围绕这个图进行投资，从能源生产端到能源消纳端，再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是，不同的时点，市场关注的方向不同而已。\n风电昨天变成了市场大热门，在wind的概念板块中，以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一，整个板块28只个股，17只钉在了涨停板上。\n\n从消息的角度，全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示，将暂停在中国的风机销售业务，并在全球范围内涨价5％。Nauen表示，和许多西方其他整机供应商一样，西门子歌美飒在中国本土整机商崛起后，竞争力已大不如前。因此，中国市场已经不是的西门子歌美飒关注的重点，同时正在考虑放弃的还有俄罗斯和土耳其市场。\n另外一个，中国正在规划风电光伏大基地项目，预计整体总量为400GW，预计有一半的规模将在十四五建成，这是继整县推进之后，新能源国家的又一重大规划，将推动中国新能源项目建设再上新台阶，预计十四五年均新增装机将从100GW上调到130-150GW，比预期提升30%-50%。其中预计风电光伏各占一半，另有少量光热项目。\n这两个消息也是引爆昨天市场的一个导火索。\n看了下风电的行业情况\n行业空间，未来的世界肯定是可再生能源的，这个肯定没错，而可再生能源的几个种类，水电资源禀赋的天花板很明显，核电生物能等等这些也无法上量，唯二能够大规模上量的，只有光伏和风电。\n风电的行业空间，在2022-2025年大概平均年复合的新增装机容量增速大概是15%\n\n15%按理说是个很高的增速，但是和光伏比下，就稍微低一点，光伏预计未来几年的年复合增速在25%，保守一点，也在20%之上。\n\n从成本角度来说，陆上风电的平准化度电成本是要低于光伏的，但总安装成本，还是没有光伏下降但快，而且预计未来光伏下降的更快。这些也是市场喜欢光伏，但不喜欢风电的主要几个原因。\n\n\n行业格局，从过去两年风机市占率的情况看，这个行业的格局还是比较乱，19年金风科技，远景能源，明阳智能占比较高，三家占比超过50%。2020年，头部公司又多了一个上海电器。到2021年上半年，行业格局几乎又换一个样子，变成了远景，中车风电，金风科技和运达风电。\n\n\n这样的竞争格局，基本可以说明一件事，这个行业的技术门槛不是很高，公司可能拼的是成本控制，销售，或者渠道等其他因素。\n虽然风电这个行业似乎不如光伏，但是架不住，风电板块的估值低啊。在通威，隆基50倍估值的时候，风电的几个龙头，金风科技18倍，明阳智能23倍。\n然后从产业链的角度来说，风塔和叶片占了主要的成本。\n\n\n关于投资主线，浙商证券建议关注两条主线——主机厂和核心零部件\n一、主机厂短期业绩弹性大\n主机厂短期业绩弹性大。一般主机厂收入确认中当年新签订单约占 25%，去年新签订单占比50%和前年新签订单占比25%。1)从招标量来看，2019年、2020年国内风电机组招标量分别为65.2GW、31.1GW；2)从招标价格来看，以3MW机组为例，2019年6-12月平均价格为3875元/KW、2020年平均价格为3618 元/KW(不含塔筒价格)，而2021年3、4月平均招标价格为2672元/KW，同比2019年6-12月下降31%，同比 2020年下降26%，因此主机厂2021年确认收入中将有75%左右来自2019年、2002年签订的高价订单；3)从零部件价格来看，陆上风电经历2019年、2020年大幅抢装，2021年不再补贴后零部件供应价格也出现一定程度的下降。高价订单确认收入和陆上风电零部件价格下跌带来的剪刀差扩大将提升主机厂的毛利率。建议关注运达股份、明阳智能和金风科技。\n\n二、核心零部件\n核心零部件看好市场规模较大、竞争格局良好的细分领域龙头。推荐具备全球竞争优势、领先布局大型化铸件的日月股份、行业集中度高的主轴供应商金雷股份、国产化程的度低的轴承生产商新强联，关注市场空间大、竞争格局较为分散的塔筒龙头天顺风能、叶片供应商中材科技。\n风力发电机组主要部件包括叶片、变频器、齿轮箱、电气控制系统、发电机、主轴、轮毂等。因驱动方式的不同，双馈式和直驱式风机零部件有所差异，主要涉及到有无齿 轮箱。以明阳智能 2.0MW 的双馈式风力发电机组风机为例:单台风机售价639万元，成 本 528万元，其中叶片占材料成本比重最高(23.89%)，依次为齿轮箱(18.67%)、变桨 控制系统(17.05%)、发电机(6.67%)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818307424,"gmtCreate":1630374104068,"gmtModify":1704959298734,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"垃圾了吧？","listText":"垃圾了吧？","text":"垃圾了吧？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df377c452f3cf47dc3fea366d79cb246","width":"750","height":"2117"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818307424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126090883,"gmtCreate":1624535863342,"gmtModify":1624535863342,"author":{"id":"3561628258171089","authorId":"3561628258171089","name":"clo_2008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b135a6198ca257e73012053c91acfa54","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"人人有份 大家发财","listText":"人人有份 大家发财","text":"人人有份 大家发财","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daf7cb9ee807c29fd69f54e1e3ebd73f","width":"828","height":"1583"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126090883","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}