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2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else

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up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692346597","repostId":"1190455875","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190455875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640849654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190455875?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 15:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190455875","media":"Realmoney","summary":"We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&amp;P 500 and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.</p><p>These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.</p><p>However, the big story this year isn&#39;t how well the indexes have performed --  it&#39;s how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.</p><p>The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.</p><blockquote>If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.</blockquote><blockquote>— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021</blockquote><p>One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>, close to 85% were trailing the S&amp;P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> stated, &#34;if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&amp;P 500.&#34;</p><p>Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.</p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.</p><p>There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.</p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.</p><p>For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> (GME) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.</p><p>These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with &#34;diamond hands&#34; eventually gave up.</p><p>This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.</p><p>In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO&#39;ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.</p><p>A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p>There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.</p><p>SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p>Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.</p><p>Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 15:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611><strong>Realmoney</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190455875","content_text":"We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as Apple (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.However, the big story this year isn't how well the indexes have performed --  it's how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. Just 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to TheStreet, close to 85% were trailing the S&P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday Goldman Sachs stated, \"if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&P 500.\"Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with \"diamond hands\" eventually gave up.This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO'ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is one asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696528173,"gmtCreate":1640737966793,"gmtModify":1640737967066,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696528173","repostId":"1186633322","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698481129,"gmtCreate":1640492569777,"gmtModify":1640492570036,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698481129","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698230902,"gmtCreate":1640400310268,"gmtModify":1640400310511,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698230902","repostId":"1195213621","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195213621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640324974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195213621?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195213621","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempe","content":"<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p>\n<p>Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p>\n<p>Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p>\n<p>Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p>\n<p>Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p>\n<p>\"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p>\n<p>\"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p>\n<p>Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p>\n<p>In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p>\n<p>Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p>\n<p>The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p>\n<p>\"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p>\n<p>The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p>\n<p>Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p>\n<p>\"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p>\n<p>JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p>\n<p>\"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p>\n<p>\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>\"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p>\n<p>DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p>\n<p>\"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p>\n<p>The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p>\n<p>\"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p>\n<p>Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p>\n<p>\"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p>\n<p>Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p>\n<p>The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p>\n<p>Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p>\n<p>\"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p>\n<p>\"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p>\n<p>In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p>\n<p>Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p>\n<p>\"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p>\n<p>Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p>\n<p>While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p>\n<p>\"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p>\n<p>Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p>\n<p>\"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p>\n<p>\"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p>\n<p>As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p>\n<p>\"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-24 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.\nAgainst a backdrop of vaccinations, easing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195213621","content_text":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.\nAgainst a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&P 500 rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.\n\nThe S&P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.\nHere's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.\n—\nOppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'\nOppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.\nOppenheimer's outlook sees the S&P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.\n\"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.\nStoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"\nIn terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nCredit Suisse (5,200): S&P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'\nCredit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.\nThe firm raised its 2022 S&P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.\nThe firm also raised its 2022 S&P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.\nCredit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.\n\"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nJPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'\nJPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.\nThe firm forecasted that the S&P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.\n\"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nDWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'\nDWS Group expects the S&P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.\n\"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"\nThe firm expects to see the S&P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"\nBianco expects the S&P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.\n\"Our view is that the equity market, the S&P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"\nBianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nBank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'\nThe S&P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.\nThe firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.\nExpectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.\n\"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"\n\"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"\nIn terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nGoldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'\nCorporate profits are set to be the driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.\nA trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)\n\"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"\nCompanies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.\nWhile the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.\n\"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"\n\"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nMorgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'Our key message centers around multiple contraction'\nMorgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.\nMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.\n\"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earningsuncertainty,\"Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"\n\"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"\nAs interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.\n\"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693931584,"gmtCreate":1639959091358,"gmtModify":1639959091617,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693931584","repostId":"1130472386","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605070575,"gmtCreate":1639097120696,"gmtModify":1639097120915,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commenting","listText":"Commenting","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605070575","repostId":"1154976653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606518993,"gmtCreate":1638891979810,"gmtModify":1638891980030,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment 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11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116775921","media":"Barrons","summary":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, an","content":"<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p>\n<p>The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p>\n<p>Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p>\n<p>As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p>\n<p>Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p>\n<p>Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p>\n<p>On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p>\n<p>The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p>\n<p>The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p>\n<p>Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p>\n<p>Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p>\n<p>Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p>\n<p>But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p>\n<p>Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p>\n<p>“Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p>\n<p>Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p>\n<p>She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p>\n<p>One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p>\n<p>Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p>\n<p>On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-17 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.\nThe horse race ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116775921","content_text":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.\nThe horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.\nSenate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.\nAs with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.\nPowell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.\nBrainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.\nOn matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.\nThe new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.\nThe Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.\nPowell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.\nBrainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.\nPowell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.\nBut more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”\nPowell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.\n“Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.\nBrainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.\nShe sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.\nOne final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.\nBefore that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.\nOn Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844398900,"gmtCreate":1636386641246,"gmtModify":1636386770292,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","text":"$Quantumscape 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Solar(CSIQ)$share","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522de52ff86eb2526b8027c451859238","width":"1440","height":"3700"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851990826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":862506267,"gmtCreate":1632886945307,"gmtModify":1632886945656,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments pls","listText":"Comments pls","text":"Comments pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862506267","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>\n <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>\n <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p>\n<p>Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>\n <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>\n <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–\n <i>Investopedia</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p>\n<p><b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p>\n<p>It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p>\n<p><b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p>\n<p>A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p>\n<p>Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li>\n</ol>\n<p>It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p>\n<p><b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p>\n<p>As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p>\n<p>As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p>\n<p>There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p>\n<p>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p>\n<p>It likely isn’t.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-29 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163410557,"gmtCreate":1623890999079,"gmtModify":1634026386083,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163410557","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":874053999,"gmtCreate":1637714169109,"gmtModify":1637714169283,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commenting&nbsp;","listText":"Commenting&nbsp;","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874053999","repostId":"2185336565","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859844569,"gmtCreate":1634689304563,"gmtModify":1634689304909,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>share coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>share coin","text":"$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$share coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4c59b61d0312f10ff26b5f095fdbc3","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859844569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127801914,"gmtCreate":1624841823738,"gmtModify":1633948172748,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127801914","repostId":"1119512620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119512620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624840548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119512620?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan says Goldman Sachs is its top investment banking stock — and picks 7 more to buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119512620","media":"CNBC","summary":"The future of investment banking is changing, and JPMorgan has named eight stocks that it thinks will benefit.“The Investment Banking  industry, in our view, is in a much better shape today compared to where it has ever been,” the bank said in an analyst note this week.It sees four primary reasons for that: Lower risk thanks to a shift to more sustainable and less capital-intensive business, higher barriers for entry, more “sustainable” revenue streams and an increasing share of captive wealth m","content":"<div>\n<p>The future of investment banking is changing, and JPMorgan has named eight stocks that it thinks will benefit.\n“The Investment Banking (IB) industry, in our view, is in a much better shape today ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/banking-stock-picks-jpmorgan-says-goldman-sachs-is-its-favorite-plus-7-more.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan says Goldman Sachs is its top investment banking stock — and picks 7 more to buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan says Goldman Sachs is its top investment banking stock — and picks 7 more to buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/banking-stock-picks-jpmorgan-says-goldman-sachs-is-its-favorite-plus-7-more.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The future of investment banking is changing, and JPMorgan has named eight stocks that it thinks will benefit.\n“The Investment Banking (IB) industry, in our view, is in a much better shape today ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/banking-stock-picks-jpmorgan-says-goldman-sachs-is-its-favorite-plus-7-more.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/banking-stock-picks-jpmorgan-says-goldman-sachs-is-its-favorite-plus-7-more.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1119512620","content_text":"The future of investment banking is changing, and JPMorgan has named eight stocks that it thinks will benefit.\n“The Investment Banking (IB) industry, in our view, is in a much better shape today compared to where it has ever been,” the bank said in an analyst note this week.\nIt sees four primary reasons for that: Lower risk thanks to a shift to more sustainable and less capital-intensive business, higher barriers for entry, more “sustainable” revenue streams and an increasing share of captive wealth management. . Captive funds are usually described as private investments managed for a select group of people.\nIn the years since the 2008 financial crisis, investment banking revenues saw low growth as a result of regulatory headwinds leading to a reduction in capital. Now, the bank sees “most regulatory headwinds and litigation behind us,” and says the industry is positioned for “undiscounted growth.”\nHere are the bank’s top picks:\nWithin the global investment banking space, JPMorgan names its U.S. favorites asGoldman SachsandMorgan Stanley, with the former its top global investment bank pick.\n“We see GS as a contender given its agile culture, which allows it to move as a Fintech, and its strong IT platform to retain its strong market share growth momentum from Tier II players,” the bank’s analysts said in the research note.\nFor Europe, their winner is Barclays.\n“In Europe, Barclays is our preferred IB pick as we see it as a relative winner with its transaction bank providing an advantage along with its diversified IB revenue mix, allowing double-digit returns through the cycle — unlike all other European players,” the analysts wrote.\nSwiss lenderUBSis the next favorite on the list, despite the hit to its earnings earlier this year from thescandal involving Archegos Capital.\n“We see MS (Morgan Stanley) and UBS as Equity S&T (sales and trading) players” supported by their captive wealth management franchises\nIts next picks are French investment banks Societe Generale,BNP Paribas, Germany’sDeutsche Bankand Swiss lenderCredit Suisse.\nThe bank puts its long-term base case revenue assumptions at 5% per year. But it thinks these are “conservative,” given they don’t take into account things like market share gains, China opening up its capital markets, Europe’s securitization market slowly opening up, and the drive toward ESG (environmental, social and governance) changes introducing new innovations.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":605070575,"gmtCreate":1639097120696,"gmtModify":1639097120915,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commenting","listText":"Commenting","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605070575","repostId":"1154976653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127801628,"gmtCreate":1624841848064,"gmtModify":1631890705681,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127801628","repostId":"1133201828","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133201828","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624839570,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133201828?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 08:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Brookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133201828","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the Eur","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, beating out interest from rival Canadian investment firm Onex Corp.</p>\n<p>“We look forward to bringing our global scale and capabilities in owning and operating leading infrastructure services businesses to support Modulaire’s growth, in partnership with the management team,” Anuj Ranjan, managing partner of Brookfield Business Partners LP, said in a statement Sunday.</p>\n<p>Bloomberg News reported the parties were closing in on the deal earlier, citing people familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p>The deal ranks among the biggest private equity transactions in Europe this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also be among the largest-ever deals for the Canadian investment firm’s European private equity business.</p>\n<p>Modulaire designs modular buildings that can be rented for work and living, as well as portable storage units. Demand for these services have picked up amid the pandemic as businesses seek to cut costs and shy away from longer-term work-space contracts. The company operates across Europe and in Asia. TDR acquired the company in 2004 and has since expanded it through a string of acquisitions.</p>\n<p>The company reported a 27% increase in revenue, including from acquisitions, to 320 million euros in the first quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 44% during the period to 97 million euros, including acquisitions.</p>\n<p>Brookfield Business Partners is a unit of the Canadian firm which invests in business services and industrial sectors. The investment firm is weighing a sale of U.K.-based biofuel provider Greenergy, Bloomberg News reported in May.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 08:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBU":"Brookfield Business Partners"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133201828","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, beating out interest from rival Canadian investment firm Onex Corp.\n“We look forward to bringing our global scale and capabilities in owning and operating leading infrastructure services businesses to support Modulaire’s growth, in partnership with the management team,” Anuj Ranjan, managing partner of Brookfield Business Partners LP, said in a statement Sunday.\nBloomberg News reported the parties were closing in on the deal earlier, citing people familiar with the matter.\nThe deal ranks among the biggest private equity transactions in Europe this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also be among the largest-ever deals for the Canadian investment firm’s European private equity business.\nModulaire designs modular buildings that can be rented for work and living, as well as portable storage units. Demand for these services have picked up amid the pandemic as businesses seek to cut costs and shy away from longer-term work-space contracts. The company operates across Europe and in Asia. TDR acquired the company in 2004 and has since expanded it through a string of acquisitions.\nThe company reported a 27% increase in revenue, including from acquisitions, to 320 million euros in the first quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 44% during the period to 97 million euros, including acquisitions.\nBrookfield Business Partners is a unit of the Canadian firm which invests in business services and industrial sectors. The investment firm is weighing a sale of U.K.-based biofuel provider Greenergy, Bloomberg News reported in May.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182577095,"gmtCreate":1623593962917,"gmtModify":1634031338990,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182577095","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p>\n<p>The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p>\n<p>Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p>\n<p>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p>\n<p><b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p>\n<p><b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p>\n<p><b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p>\n<p>GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p>\n<p>Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p>\n<p><b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p>\n<p>PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p>\n<p>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p>\n<p>But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p>\n<p>The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 06:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220><strong>investors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居","PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense 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13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195213621","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempe","content":"<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p>\n<p>Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p>\n<p>Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p>\n<p>Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p>\n<p>Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p>\n<p>\"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p>\n<p>\"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p>\n<p>Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p>\n<p>In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p>\n<p>Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p>\n<p>The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p>\n<p>\"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p>\n<p>The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p>\n<p>Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p>\n<p>\"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p>\n<p>JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p>\n<p>The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p>\n<p>\"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p>\n<p>\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>\"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p>\n<p>DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p>\n<p>\"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p>\n<p>The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p>\n<p>\"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p>\n<p>Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p>\n<p>\"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p>\n<p>Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p>\n<p>The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p>\n<p>Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p>\n<p>\"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p>\n<p>\"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p>\n<p>In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p>\n<p>Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p>\n<p>\"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p>\n<p>Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p>\n<p>While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p>\n<p>\"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p>\n<p>—</p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p>\n<p>Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p>\n<p>\"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p>\n<p>\"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p>\n<p>As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p>\n<p>\"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p>\n<p><i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-24 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.\nAgainst a backdrop of vaccinations, easing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195213621","content_text":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.\nAgainst a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&P 500 rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.\n\nThe S&P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.\nHere's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.\n—\nOppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'\nOppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.\nOppenheimer's outlook sees the S&P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.\n\"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.\nStoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"\nIn terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nCredit Suisse (5,200): S&P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'\nCredit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.\nThe firm raised its 2022 S&P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.\nThe firm also raised its 2022 S&P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.\nCredit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.\n\"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nJPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'\nJPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.\nThe firm forecasted that the S&P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.\n\"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nDWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'\nDWS Group expects the S&P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.\n\"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"\nThe firm expects to see the S&P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"\nBianco expects the S&P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.\n\"Our view is that the equity market, the S&P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"\nBianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nBank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'\nThe S&P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.\nThe firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.\nExpectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.\n\"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"\n\"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"\nIn terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nGoldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'\nCorporate profits are set to be the driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.\nA trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)\n\"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"\nCompanies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.\nWhile the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.\n\"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"\n\"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nMorgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'Our key message centers around multiple contraction'\nMorgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.\nMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.\n\"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earningsuncertainty,\"Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"\n\"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"\nAs interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.\n\"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878085686,"gmtCreate":1637124421963,"gmtModify":1637124422393,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878085686","repostId":"1116775921","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116775921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637120007,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116775921?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-17 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116775921","media":"Barrons","summary":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, an","content":"<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p>\n<p>The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p>\n<p>Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p>\n<p>As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p>\n<p>Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p>\n<p>Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p>\n<p>On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p>\n<p>The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p>\n<p>The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p>\n<p>Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p>\n<p>Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p>\n<p>Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p>\n<p>But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p>\n<p>Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p>\n<p>“Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p>\n<p>Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p>\n<p>She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p>\n<p>One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p>\n<p>Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p>\n<p>On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-17 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.\nThe horse race ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116775921","content_text":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.\nThe horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.\nSenate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.\nAs with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.\nPowell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.\nBrainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.\nOn matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.\nThe new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.\nThe Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.\nPowell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.\nBrainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.\nPowell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.\nBut more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”\nPowell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.\n“Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.\nBrainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.\nShe sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.\nOne final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.\nBefore that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.\nOn Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844398900,"gmtCreate":1636386641246,"gmtModify":1636386770292,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a132ef1c401321c14384bb5e96687c48","width":"1440","height":"2442"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844398900","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827941530,"gmtCreate":1634396977152,"gmtModify":1634396977534,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>comment coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>comment coin","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$comment coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f343c732bd9c66d1017281520f6f9c5","width":"1440","height":"3942"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827941530","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822698695,"gmtCreate":1634123001347,"gmtModify":1634123001462,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>share coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>share coin","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$share coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20352531598e44a5a43edcffa2f0b8f6","width":"1440","height":"2113"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822698695","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}