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Gavin20
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她跌的都快清仓了,
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17:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“铁口”李蓓:未来中国股市或有“二十年一遇”行情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2401840984","media":"wallstreet","summary":"去年最后一个月净值继续回落。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>去年最后一个月净值继续回落。</p></blockquote><p>净值继续跌,而她继续看好。</p><p>这可能就是李蓓吧。</p><p>1月8日,市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报(2023年12月月报)。</p><p>这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报,在月报中,基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作,并再次重申牛市观点:</p><p>当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部,而不仅仅是小周期底部;</p><p>将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别,是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。</p><p>(将来的股市行情)大概率超越5年一遇的级别,可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。</p><p>然而,在“大喊机会”的同时,李蓓的一只低波动主题(私募)基金在2023年录得近15个点的跌幅,更跑输了大盘指数。</p><p>这可能会让她有点烦心吧。</p><p><strong>2023年“受挫”</strong></p><p>根据业内流传的投资月报,一个隶属于半夏投资低波动系列的私募产品,在2023年实现-14.70%的年度收益,跑输沪深300指数约三个百分点。</p><p>这让半夏无法重复2022年的辉煌,相反在一批百亿私募同行中暂时排名居于中下游之列。</p><p>对于去年12月的操作,李蓓复盘称:<strong>权益类持仓跌幅则大于沪深300指数,一方面是期权权利金在指数低波动背景下面临时间价值的损失,一方面是个股持仓走势弱于沪深300。</strong></p><p>虽然业绩不理想,但李蓓依然信心满满:由于债券和商品市场都并没有大机会,我们把大部分的风险预算留给权益仓位。</p><p>她还指出:“政策沿着预期的方向和节奏循序渐进的落地,后续几个月的时间,效果会逐渐显现出来。资金流动是过去一段时间更主要的矛盾。”</p><p><strong>提及年初“黑天鹅”</strong></p><p>李蓓还提及了2024年开年的行情,并认为:年初市场出现了明显的下跌,尤其基金重仓股下跌惨烈。开年的戏剧一幕再一次提醒我们一个道理,世界充满了黑天鹅,不确定性始终存在。</p><p>但她认为市场出现了增量资金,有如下分析:</p><p>ETF净申购是12月最大的增量,对市场的稳定起了很大的托底作用。</p><p>其它类别的机构,无论私募,保险还是外资仓位,仓位出清的过程都基本完成,仓位的绝对水平都是历史低位。</p><p><strong>给出三点“提示”</strong></p><p>李蓓在月报中给投资人强调以下三点:</p><p><strong>其一,后续要继续规避公募集体超配的行业和个股。</strong>更本质的是:主动公募和主观私募所面临的资金流出趋势,在未来一年都很难逆转。</p><p><strong>其二,这一波公募的卖出降仓位结束后,市场上所有的存量投资者就都会完成仓位出清。</strong>所以虽然年初市场表现的确低于预期,但中期上涨的障碍进一步的扫清了。</p><p><strong>其三,保险资金的入场,是我们之前一直预期的2024年主要的资金增量。</strong>从开年的表现来看,基本上也可以确定这种趋势已经正在发生,保险偏好的高股息类公司,开年后的相对跑赢比之前更加地流畅。</p><p><strong>再提大牛市</strong></p><p>数月以来,李蓓非常坚定看好未来大牛市趋势。</p><p>她在此份月报中再次唱多,指出:当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部,而不仅仅是小周期底部,<strong>将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别,是会超过过去的2、3轮小牛市的,大概率超越5年一遇的级别,可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。</strong></p><p>她更把增量资金和市场演变的顺序,做了一番“演绎”:</p><blockquote><p>国家队托底,保险入市推动第一波触底回升;</p><p>基本面担忧缓解后,外资逆转,机构持续加仓引发第二波上涨;</p><p>赚钱效应引发存款搬家推动第三波泡沫化。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“铁口”李蓓:未来中国股市或有“二十年一遇”行情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-08 17:50 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875><strong>wallstreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>去年最后一个月净值继续回落。净值继续跌,而她继续看好。这可能就是李蓓吧。1月8日,市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报(2023年12月月报)。这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报,在月报中,基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作,并再次重申牛市观点:当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部,而不仅仅是小周期底部;将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别,是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。(将来的股市行情)大概率超越5年一遇的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2401840984","content_text":"去年最后一个月净值继续回落。净值继续跌,而她继续看好。这可能就是李蓓吧。1月8日,市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报(2023年12月月报)。这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报,在月报中,基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作,并再次重申牛市观点:当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部,而不仅仅是小周期底部;将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别,是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。(将来的股市行情)大概率超越5年一遇的级别,可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。然而,在“大喊机会”的同时,李蓓的一只低波动主题(私募)基金在2023年录得近15个点的跌幅,更跑输了大盘指数。这可能会让她有点烦心吧。2023年“受挫”根据业内流传的投资月报,一个隶属于半夏投资低波动系列的私募产品,在2023年实现-14.70%的年度收益,跑输沪深300指数约三个百分点。这让半夏无法重复2022年的辉煌,相反在一批百亿私募同行中暂时排名居于中下游之列。对于去年12月的操作,李蓓复盘称:权益类持仓跌幅则大于沪深300指数,一方面是期权权利金在指数低波动背景下面临时间价值的损失,一方面是个股持仓走势弱于沪深300。虽然业绩不理想,但李蓓依然信心满满:由于债券和商品市场都并没有大机会,我们把大部分的风险预算留给权益仓位。她还指出:“政策沿着预期的方向和节奏循序渐进的落地,后续几个月的时间,效果会逐渐显现出来。资金流动是过去一段时间更主要的矛盾。”提及年初“黑天鹅”李蓓还提及了2024年开年的行情,并认为:年初市场出现了明显的下跌,尤其基金重仓股下跌惨烈。开年的戏剧一幕再一次提醒我们一个道理,世界充满了黑天鹅,不确定性始终存在。但她认为市场出现了增量资金,有如下分析:ETF净申购是12月最大的增量,对市场的稳定起了很大的托底作用。其它类别的机构,无论私募,保险还是外资仓位,仓位出清的过程都基本完成,仓位的绝对水平都是历史低位。给出三点“提示”李蓓在月报中给投资人强调以下三点:其一,后续要继续规避公募集体超配的行业和个股。更本质的是:主动公募和主观私募所面临的资金流出趋势,在未来一年都很难逆转。其二,这一波公募的卖出降仓位结束后,市场上所有的存量投资者就都会完成仓位出清。所以虽然年初市场表现的确低于预期,但中期上涨的障碍进一步的扫清了。其三,保险资金的入场,是我们之前一直预期的2024年主要的资金增量。从开年的表现来看,基本上也可以确定这种趋势已经正在发生,保险偏好的高股息类公司,开年后的相对跑赢比之前更加地流畅。再提大牛市数月以来,李蓓非常坚定看好未来大牛市趋势。她在此份月报中再次唱多,指出:当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部,而不仅仅是小周期底部,将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别,是会超过过去的2、3轮小牛市的,大概率超越5年一遇的级别,可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。她更把增量资金和市场演变的顺序,做了一番“演绎”:国家队托底,保险入市推动第一波触底回升;基本面担忧缓解后,外资逆转,机构持续加仓引发第二波上涨;赚钱效应引发存款搬家推动第三波泡沫化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}