一大片天空的个人主页 - 老虎社区

一大片天空

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一大片天空

2023-10-26

阿里巴$阿里巴巴(BABA)$

一大片天空

2022-12-29

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@经济观察报:山东、山西省委主要负责同志职务调整

一大片天空

2022-09-27

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@玲儿小盯裆:凛冬已至，静待蛰伏｜写在9月FOMC之后

一大片天空

2022-06-14

什么时候涨

一大片天空

2022-05-13

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抱歉，原内容已删除

一大片天空

2022-05-09

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抱歉，原内容已删除

一大片天空

2022-04-29

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一大片天空

2022-03-11

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抱歉，原内容已删除

一大片天空

2022-03-03

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抱歉，原内容已删除

一大片天空

2021-08-27

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抱歉，原内容已删除

一大片天空

2021-08-25

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抱歉，原内容已删除

一大片天空

2021-08-21

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@旭阳特别帅:22万美金复盘

一大片天空

2021-06-17

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本周看完了联储的FOMC讲话，市场也变动的比较大，想和大家聊一下接下来怎么看。正如前文所预测的，联储下调了一系列的经济预期，具体来看数据是： 其实从图中也可以看出，联储一方面是预期管理，另一方面也披露了他们对于经济下滑的预期：虽然软着陆的信心下降，但是控制通胀的决心坚定。反过来说，通胀的尽头就是衰退。 关于terminal rate，J Powell表示维持jackson hole的立场，那也就是说起码要看到通胀回落2%的明确证据，笔者的想法是，需要失业率进一步抬升才行，比方说到4.5%可能才是一个trigger。 现阶段联储保持鹰派的预期当然有很多理由：1）美元的国际储备地位2）Fed的信用、决心3）美式政治正确4）阴谋论来说美元甚至是一种武器 美元的国际储备地位 从美元的地位来说，他的竞争者主要是欧元、英镑、日元等。现阶段看，欧元由于俄乌的冲突，导致了今年基本保持萎靡；而日元则是因为BOJ的YCC政策（人为压低jp10y），意图保持强出口、日元计价的资产价格不变、避免日本国内的通缩，所以Japan Yen在今年也大幅下跌。 EURUSD vs&nbsp;JPYUSD 插一句，欧洲接下来大概率比美国衰退的更早更深，对于任何一个经济体来说，其自身的长期动力来源于科技发展（即生产率的提高），而不是低利率疯狂印钞（各个部门加杠杆）。自俄乌战争打响，通胀中枢也许永久性地抬高了。可以说，欧洲的麻烦不是结束的开始，而是开始的结束。 Fe","text":"Abstract摘要 1）美联储大概率加息过度，但是痛苦Europe Union来承担 2）美联储可能在民主党中期选举为了政治正确保持hawkish。 3）短期来看，美股有反弹的可能；中期来看，美股仍然有下跌的空间。 4）当前各个大类资产对Fed-Fomc极其敏感，通过路径的演绎，FED转向的观察窗口可能是EURUSD，时间点可能是明年Q1或者Q2。 本周看完了联储的FOMC讲话，市场也变动的比较大，想和大家聊一下接下来怎么看。正如前文所预测的，联储下调了一系列的经济预期，具体来看数据是： 其实从图中也可以看出，联储一方面是预期管理，另一方面也披露了他们对于经济下滑的预期：虽然软着陆的信心下降，但是控制通胀的决心坚定。反过来说，通胀的尽头就是衰退。 关于terminal rate，J Powell表示维持jackson 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1）美联储大概率加息过度，但是痛苦Europe Union来承担 2）美联储可能在民主党中期选举为了政治正确保持hawkish。 3）短期来看，美股有反弹的可能；中期来看，美股仍然有下跌的空间。 4）当前各个大类资产对Fed-Fomc极其敏感，通过路径的演绎，FED转向的观察窗口可能是EURUSD，时间点可能是明年Q1或者Q2。 本周看完了联储的FOMC讲话，市场也变动的比较大，想和大家聊一下接下来怎么看。正如前文所预测的，联储下调了一系列的经济预期，具体来看数据是： 其实从图中也可以看出，联储一方面是预期管理，另一方面也披露了他们对于经济下滑的预期：虽然软着陆的信心下降，但是控制通胀的决心坚定。反过来说，通胀的尽头就是衰退。 关于terminal rate，J Powell表示维持jackson hole的立场，那也就是说起码要看到通胀回落2%的明确证据，笔者的想法是，需要失业率进一步抬升才行，比方说到4.5%可能才是一个trigger。 现阶段联储保持鹰派的预期当然有很多理由：1）美元的国际储备地位2）Fed的信用、决心3）美式政治正确4）阴谋论来说美元甚至是一种武器 美元的国际储备地位 从美元的地位来说，他的竞争者主要是欧元、英镑、日元等。现阶段看，欧元由于俄乌的冲突，导致了今年基本保持萎靡；而日元则是因为BOJ的YCC政策（人为压低jp10y），意图保持强出口、日元计价的资产价格不变、避免日本国内的通缩，所以Japan Yen在今年也大幅下跌。 EURUSD vs&nbsp;JPYUSD 插一句，欧洲接下来大概率比美国衰退的更早更深，对于任何一个经济体来说，其自身的长期动力来源于科技发展（即生产率的提高），而不是低利率疯狂印钞（各个部门加杠杆）。自俄乌战争打响，通胀中枢也许永久性地抬高了。可以说，欧洲的麻烦不是结束的开始，而是开始的结束。 Fe","listText":"Abstract摘要 1）美联储大概率加息过度，但是痛苦Europe Union来承担 2）美联储可能在民主党中期选举为了政治正确保持hawkish。 3）短期来看，美股有反弹的可能；中期来看，美股仍然有下跌的空间。 4）当前各个大类资产对Fed-Fomc极其敏感，通过路径的演绎，FED转向的观察窗口可能是EURUSD，时间点可能是明年Q1或者Q2。 本周看完了联储的FOMC讲话，市场也变动的比较大，想和大家聊一下接下来怎么看。正如前文所预测的，联储下调了一系列的经济预期，具体来看数据是： 其实从图中也可以看出，联储一方面是预期管理，另一方面也披露了他们对于经济下滑的预期：虽然软着陆的信心下降，但是控制通胀的决心坚定。反过来说，通胀的尽头就是衰退。 关于terminal rate，J Powell表示维持jackson hole的立场，那也就是说起码要看到通胀回落2%的明确证据，笔者的想法是，需要失业率进一步抬升才行，比方说到4.5%可能才是一个trigger。 现阶段联储保持鹰派的预期当然有很多理由：1）美元的国际储备地位2）Fed的信用、决心3）美式政治正确4）阴谋论来说美元甚至是一种武器 美元的国际储备地位 从美元的地位来说，他的竞争者主要是欧元、英镑、日元等。现阶段看，欧元由于俄乌的冲突，导致了今年基本保持萎靡；而日元则是因为BOJ的YCC政策（人为压低jp10y），意图保持强出口、日元计价的资产价格不变、避免日本国内的通缩，所以Japan Yen在今年也大幅下跌。 EURUSD vs&nbsp;JPYUSD 插一句，欧洲接下来大概率比美国衰退的更早更深，对于任何一个经济体来说，其自身的长期动力来源于科技发展（即生产率的提高），而不是低利率疯狂印钞（各个部门加杠杆）。自俄乌战争打响，通胀中枢也许永久性地抬高了。可以说，欧洲的麻烦不是结束的开始，而是开始的结束。 Fe","text":"Abstract摘要 1）美联储大概率加息过度，但是痛苦Europe Union来承担 2）美联储可能在民主党中期选举为了政治正确保持hawkish。 3）短期来看，美股有反弹的可能；中期来看，美股仍然有下跌的空间。 4）当前各个大类资产对Fed-Fomc极其敏感，通过路径的演绎，FED转向的观察窗口可能是EURUSD，时间点可能是明年Q1或者Q2。 本周看完了联储的FOMC讲话，市场也变动的比较大，想和大家聊一下接下来怎么看。正如前文所预测的，联储下调了一系列的经济预期，具体来看数据是： 其实从图中也可以看出，联储一方面是预期管理，另一方面也披露了他们对于经济下滑的预期：虽然软着陆的信心下降，但是控制通胀的决心坚定。反过来说，通胀的尽头就是衰退。 关于terminal rate，J Powell表示维持jackson hole的立场，那也就是说起码要看到通胀回落2%的明确证据，笔者的想法是，需要失业率进一步抬升才行，比方说到4.5%可能才是一个trigger。 现阶段联储保持鹰派的预期当然有很多理由：1）美元的国际储备地位2）Fed的信用、决心3）美式政治正确4）阴谋论来说美元甚至是一种武器 美元的国际储备地位 从美元的地位来说，他的竞争者主要是欧元、英镑、日元等。现阶段看，欧元由于俄乌的冲突，导致了今年基本保持萎靡；而日元则是因为BOJ的YCC政策（人为压低jp10y），意图保持强出口、日元计价的资产价格不变、避免日本国内的通缩，所以Japan Yen在今年也大幅下跌。 EURUSD vs JPYUSD 插一句，欧洲接下来大概率比美国衰退的更早更深，对于任何一个经济体来说，其自身的长期动力来源于科技发展（即生产率的提高），而不是低利率疯狂印钞（各个部门加杠杆）。自俄乌战争打响，通胀中枢也许永久性地抬高了。可以说，欧洲的麻烦不是结束的开始，而是开始的结束。 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