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高山有水
2021-04-08
选择的是陈薇院士团队和康希诺合作的康希诺一针型疫苗,之所以选这一款主要基于两点考虑:一是我怕针,扎一针都要思量好久;二是目前军队都是采用的康希诺,我选择相信。
高山有水
2021-04-08
无可否认,很多蓝筹股的价格已经飙升。已经没有在低估的状态下。哪这时候应该专注于哪些股呢?这是我个人的关注表,只供参考,并非投资建议。主要是了解我的思路,而不能只盲跟 - 哪可是输钱的肯定套路!
高山有水
2021-03-27
这么多公司要抵制新疆棉,结果受到了全国人民的抵制,真是自作自受。别的不多说,新疆产棉量占全球的1/5,全国80%以上的棉品及供应链都是多多少少都能用到新疆棉的。
高山有水
2021-03-27
这么多公司要抵制新疆棉,结果受到了全国人民的抵制,真是自作自受。别的不多说,新疆产棉量占全球的1/5,全国80%以上的棉品及供应链都是多多少少都能用到新疆棉的。
高山有水
2021-03-27
//
@高山有水
: 这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@高山有水:个人见解
高山有水
2021-03-27
从数据层面来看,小米这次财报确实不够理想,那么到底是什么原因导致小米不及预期?小米的财报差在哪里?具体来看
高山有水
2021-03-23
一方面,大家都感叹,现在的半导体真的是一个好的行业,似乎任何一个讲的通的商业计划,或者是存在国产替代可能性的项目都能估值几亿甚至几十亿。有些半导体投资人甚至打趣道,已经不敢去看芯片项目了;
高山有水
2021-03-22
以最近交易日收盘价对应公司当前市值为1739亿美元,借Q4财报释放的财务信息,可为我们提供视角:本次杀跌是否意味着上车机会,拼多多未来是否继续光明。
高山有水
2021-03-09
不错
@高山有水:配置方面,如果投资周期是以季度为窗口,当前美股仍具备较强的配置价值,但在美债利率抬升趋势可能贯穿全年的情况下,建议超配周期股,价值股(银行、工业、航空等);标配科技成长股。
高山有水
2021-03-09
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@高山有水:拥有庞大的刺激计划非常重要。经济上的疤痕是比通胀更大的风险。希望在未来两周内看到刺激法案的进展。给个人的刺激支票将有助于推动经济发展,并帮助生活困难的家庭。刺激计划的永久部分不会增加政府的长期赤字。
高山有水
2021-03-09
配置方面,如果投资周期是以季度为窗口,当前美股仍具备较强的配置价值,但在美债利率抬升趋势可能贯穿全年的情况下,建议超配周期股,价值股(银行、工业、航空等);标配科技成长股。
高山有水
2021-02-22
拥有庞大的刺激计划非常重要。经济上的疤痕是比通胀更大的风险。希望在未来两周内看到刺激法案的进展。给个人的刺激支票将有助于推动经济发展,并帮助生活困难的家庭。刺激计划的永久部分不会增加政府的长期赤字。
高山有水
2021-02-21
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@高山有水:关于投机市场的兴盛是不是没有道理的!
高山有水
2021-02-21
根据以往纳入港股通的表现,我的关注重点在于次新股(上市一年内新股),主要原因是港交所每半年会调整一次港股通名单,上市超过一年的旧股,如果是当下时点纳入,必然市值规模过小,小即意味着缺陷,关注的意义不大。
高山有水
2021-02-21
没有什么2月5日瑞幸咖啡申请破产保护这个大利空,没机会从15美金打三折到5美金的,国际机构全部在抢,和一年前在4元抢蔚来汽车一样,现在开始才是真正的大投资,只有类似蔚来这样的机会,才值得我出手,嘉楠科技的,十天就翻了四倍了,6美金到近25美金了
高山有水
2021-02-21
中国投资者重返市场后,发现很难踏准市场节奏,游戏玩儿法全都变了。本周几个交易日市场的走势几乎没有一天是因为新闻事件而引发的,每当市场“大涨或大跌后”人们几乎找不到合理的理由。基本面静悄悄,但市场走势又不简单,很多人一脸困惑,到底是哪出问题了?
高山有水
2021-02-21
好
华尔街空前紧张:通货膨胀存危机,10年期美债收益率会不会破1.50%?
高山有水
2021-02-19
美股研究社讯,德意志银行分析师Jeffrey Rand将ROKU(ROKU.O)的目标价从400美元上调至500美元,并维持对该股的买入评级。分析师在一份研究报告中告诉投资者,Roku财报显示,随着向流媒体的快速转型,该公司的季度业绩表现强劲。他认为,Roku的内容分发和广告业务都面临着强劲的需求。然而,分析师表示,由于该公司目前的交易水平接近高增长的数字广告同行,进一步的估值扩张已变得更加有限。
高山有水
2021-02-13
不知道这机构什么情况,水平这么低,这话说的弯弯绕绕,但是表达的最终观点还很模糊,我隐约觉得风向不太好。
高山有水
2021-02-13
我们不妨想想,如何在网上塑造一个好人人设?其实交给公关,花点钱就行了:找个靠谱的摄影师,咔咔咔拍几百张照片,挑几张最好的PS一下,然后找两个影子写手,帮你整个自传,加入一些似是而非,半真半假的“轶事”,不能保证千万粉丝,圈个几万、几十万问题不大。
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09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街空前紧张:通货膨胀存危机,10年期美债收益率会不会破1.50%?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112984716","media":"智通财经网","summary":"全球重要的指标——美国10年期国债收益率已经突破1.3%关口,达到去年疫情爆发以来最高水平。花旗最近认为,美国股市回调10%可能性很大。那么话说回来,10年期美债收益率会不会破“1.50%”?今年迄今为止策略师的共识一直是做空美国国债;在这种共识下,大部分人又认为10年期国债收益率将在1.5%-2%的区间内交投。","content":"<html><body><p><font>本文来自 微信公众号“华尔街情报圈”。</font></p><p><font><font>——如果有什么事值得担心,那就是通货膨胀,危险就在于此。</font></font></p><p>周五全球市场走出了“大事将至”的模式:</p><p>美国股市持续在历史高位附近窄幅徘徊,似乎是在等什么大消息;</p><p>国际金价急跌之后翻盘;</p><p>美元指数在下跌途中也出现急刹车。</p><p>中国投资者重返市场后,发现很难踏准市场节奏,游戏玩儿法全都变了。本周几个交易日市场的走势几乎没有一天是因为新闻事件而引发的,每当市场“大涨或大跌后”人们几乎找不到合理的理由。基本面静悄悄,但市场走势又不简单,很多人一脸困惑,到底是哪出问题了?</p><p>实际上,现在市场关注点不是美联储,也不是白宫。交易员每一分每一秒都在紧盯美国国债收益率走势,就像2015年底开始每天屏住呼吸等待人民币中间价一样。</p><p>全球重要的指标——美国10年期国债收益率(这一重要定价利率)已经突破1.3%关口,达到去年疫情爆发以来最高水平。现在很多交易员都有一种同样的预感,美债的疯狂走势才刚刚启幕。</p><div></div><p><font>接下来会发生什么?</font></p><p>大家可能对美债收益率具体的数据不太敏感,只需要记住“1.50%”是一个重要数字,一旦10年期美债收益率突破1.50%,很可能导致游戏规则彻底改变(全球市场大变盘)。</p><p>从股市到黄金到公司债都难以幸免,本周金价下跌的主要原因就是美债收益率大涨。中国投资者不要认为跟自己没关系,美债收益率涨幅过大会引发资金流出新兴市场股市,也会利空人民币。</p><p>当然,美债收益率上涨对于身处历史高位的美国股市来说,也带来了压力,本周美股走势就说明了问题。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>最近认为,美国股市回调10%可能性很大。</p><p>花旗首席美国股票策略师Tobias Levkovich在报告中称,我们目前的谨慎态度反映了几个因素,包括高昂的信心读数,过高的估值水平和下滑的业绩修正势头。美国股市没有处在泡沫之中,并且与21世纪初没有可比性,因为当前经济正在摆脱,而非陷入衰退,而且美联储也没有在加息,这表明股市不太可能出现深跌。尽管股票可能回调10%-20%,但我们并不预计50%以上的深跌。标普500指数的年底目标位在3800点,波动范围在3600至4000点。</p><p>那么话说回来,10年期美债收益率会不会破“1.50%”?</p><p>很可能会。</p><p>今年迄今为止策略师的共识一直是做空美国国债;在这种共识下,大部分人又认为10年期国债收益率将在1.5%-2%的区间内交投。未来几个月将至关重要。</p><p>期权盈亏平衡分析显示交易员正预期10年期国债收益率要么升到去年2月触及过的1.6%,要么跌回1%。意味着存在1%和1.60%的可能性,同时也预示着收益率更高的风险上升。</p><p><font>华尔街空前紧张</font></p><p>交易员们之所以紧张,是因为在这股趋势背后,不是简单的“某”一条新闻引发的,而是三方面联合作用:</p><p>1)通货膨胀预期</p><p>强劲的经济反弹和大规模美国刺激措施的前景,令人们对通货膨胀预期发生了改变。</p><p>2)能源价格上涨</p><p>美国德州极寒天气正演变成全球油市的一场危机,美国已停产每日逾400万桶的产能,接近全美原油产量40%。过去这种天气干扰很大程度上只影响美国,但现在变成了全球性问题。布伦特原油期货本周一度升至每桶65美元,就在十个月前价格曾跌破16美元。</p><p>3)刺激预期</p><p>种种迹象来看,拜登政府即将推出1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划,这将是美国历史上第二大规模的经济刺激。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021220/179/w626h353/20210220/70f8-kkciesr7250138.png/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>不过,这些还不是最令人担心的,最可怕的是如今市场对货币政策还没有共识。</span></div><p>过去在大家的印象中,对美联储什么时候加息,什么时候缩减QE,都会有很强的共识。市场走势一直是根据共识预期变化的,而现在这种共识消失了。</p><p>下面给大家看一张图:</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021220/777/w1080h497/20210220/4fed-kkciesr7250144.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>这张图上下两部分在讲不同的故事,上部分说经济还不错,下部分说经济还不行,很明显两者出现了背离。</p><p>而下方这张图的四条曲线没有在一个方向,说明市场对货币政策还没有共识。</p><p>如果说上半部分是对的,那么下半部分四条曲线会往上走,说明美国货币政策会收紧。如果下半部分是对的,那么上半部分曲线或往下走,对应的是经济不景气,铜价要跌,油价要跌。</p><p>没有共识意味着市场会陷入无序巨震,这就可怕了。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街空前紧张:通货膨胀存危机,10年期美债收益率会不会破1.50%?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-20 09:40 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-02-20/doc-ikftpnny8532399.shtml><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自 微信公众号“华尔街情报圈”。——如果有什么事值得担心,那就是通货膨胀,危险就在于此。周五全球市场走出了“大事将至”的模式:美国股市持续在历史高位附近窄幅徘徊,似乎是在等什么大消息;国际金价急跌之后翻盘;美元指数在下跌途中也出现急刹车。中国投资者重返市场后,发现很难踏准市场节奏,游戏玩儿法全都变了。本周几个交易日市场的走势几乎没有一天是因为新闻事件而引发的,每当市场“大涨或大跌后”人们几乎...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-02-20/doc-ikftpnny8532399.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-02-20/doc-ikftpnny8532399.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112984716","content_text":"本文来自 微信公众号“华尔街情报圈”。——如果有什么事值得担心,那就是通货膨胀,危险就在于此。周五全球市场走出了“大事将至”的模式:美国股市持续在历史高位附近窄幅徘徊,似乎是在等什么大消息;国际金价急跌之后翻盘;美元指数在下跌途中也出现急刹车。中国投资者重返市场后,发现很难踏准市场节奏,游戏玩儿法全都变了。本周几个交易日市场的走势几乎没有一天是因为新闻事件而引发的,每当市场“大涨或大跌后”人们几乎找不到合理的理由。基本面静悄悄,但市场走势又不简单,很多人一脸困惑,到底是哪出问题了?实际上,现在市场关注点不是美联储,也不是白宫。交易员每一分每一秒都在紧盯美国国债收益率走势,就像2015年底开始每天屏住呼吸等待人民币中间价一样。全球重要的指标——美国10年期国债收益率(这一重要定价利率)已经突破1.3%关口,达到去年疫情爆发以来最高水平。现在很多交易员都有一种同样的预感,美债的疯狂走势才刚刚启幕。接下来会发生什么?大家可能对美债收益率具体的数据不太敏感,只需要记住“1.50%”是一个重要数字,一旦10年期美债收益率突破1.50%,很可能导致游戏规则彻底改变(全球市场大变盘)。从股市到黄金到公司债都难以幸免,本周金价下跌的主要原因就是美债收益率大涨。中国投资者不要认为跟自己没关系,美债收益率涨幅过大会引发资金流出新兴市场股市,也会利空人民币。当然,美债收益率上涨对于身处历史高位的美国股市来说,也带来了压力,本周美股走势就说明了问题。花旗最近认为,美国股市回调10%可能性很大。花旗首席美国股票策略师Tobias Levkovich在报告中称,我们目前的谨慎态度反映了几个因素,包括高昂的信心读数,过高的估值水平和下滑的业绩修正势头。美国股市没有处在泡沫之中,并且与21世纪初没有可比性,因为当前经济正在摆脱,而非陷入衰退,而且美联储也没有在加息,这表明股市不太可能出现深跌。尽管股票可能回调10%-20%,但我们并不预计50%以上的深跌。标普500指数的年底目标位在3800点,波动范围在3600至4000点。那么话说回来,10年期美债收益率会不会破“1.50%”?很可能会。今年迄今为止策略师的共识一直是做空美国国债;在这种共识下,大部分人又认为10年期国债收益率将在1.5%-2%的区间内交投。未来几个月将至关重要。期权盈亏平衡分析显示交易员正预期10年期国债收益率要么升到去年2月触及过的1.6%,要么跌回1%。意味着存在1%和1.60%的可能性,同时也预示着收益率更高的风险上升。华尔街空前紧张交易员们之所以紧张,是因为在这股趋势背后,不是简单的“某”一条新闻引发的,而是三方面联合作用:1)通货膨胀预期强劲的经济反弹和大规模美国刺激措施的前景,令人们对通货膨胀预期发生了改变。2)能源价格上涨美国德州极寒天气正演变成全球油市的一场危机,美国已停产每日逾400万桶的产能,接近全美原油产量40%。过去这种天气干扰很大程度上只影响美国,但现在变成了全球性问题。布伦特原油期货本周一度升至每桶65美元,就在十个月前价格曾跌破16美元。3)刺激预期种种迹象来看,拜登政府即将推出1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划,这将是美国历史上第二大规模的经济刺激。不过,这些还不是最令人担心的,最可怕的是如今市场对货币政策还没有共识。过去在大家的印象中,对美联储什么时候加息,什么时候缩减QE,都会有很强的共识。市场走势一直是根据共识预期变化的,而现在这种共识消失了。下面给大家看一张图:这张图上下两部分在讲不同的故事,上部分说经济还不错,下部分说经济还不行,很明显两者出现了背离。而下方这张图的四条曲线没有在一个方向,说明市场对货币政策还没有共识。如果说上半部分是对的,那么下半部分四条曲线会往上走,说明美国货币政策会收紧。如果下半部分是对的,那么上半部分曲线或往下走,对应的是经济不景气,铜价要跌,油价要跌。没有共识意味着市场会陷入无序巨震,这就可怕了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387259489,"gmtCreate":1613750381141,"gmtModify":1613750381141,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股研究社讯,德意志银行分析师Jeffrey Rand将ROKU(ROKU.O)的目标价从400美元上调至500美元,并维持对该股的买入评级。分析师在一份研究报告中告诉投资者,Roku财报显示,随着向流媒体的快速转型,该公司的季度业绩表现强劲。他认为,Roku的内容分发和广告业务都面临着强劲的需求。然而,分析师表示,由于该公司目前的交易水平接近高增长的数字广告同行,进一步的估值扩张已变得更加有限。","listText":"美股研究社讯,德意志银行分析师Jeffrey Rand将ROKU(ROKU.O)的目标价从400美元上调至500美元,并维持对该股的买入评级。分析师在一份研究报告中告诉投资者,Roku财报显示,随着向流媒体的快速转型,该公司的季度业绩表现强劲。他认为,Roku的内容分发和广告业务都面临着强劲的需求。然而,分析师表示,由于该公司目前的交易水平接近高增长的数字广告同行,进一步的估值扩张已变得更加有限。","text":"美股研究社讯,德意志银行分析师Jeffrey 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家庭。刺激计划的永久部分不会增加政府的长期赤字。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360531821","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334720398,"gmtCreate":1610987162014,"gmtModify":1703747398951,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我们都知道,自2020年3月份疫情爆发以来,美国在疯狂印钞。从央行资产负债表规模来看,从2020年初的4.14万亿美元。变到现在的7.33万亿美元,印了3.2万亿,相当于目前美联储资产负债表的44%,都是过去一年买出来的;","listText":"我们都知道,自2020年3月份疫情爆发以来,美国在疯狂印钞。从央行资产负债表规模来看,从2020年初的4.14万亿美元。变到现在的7.33万亿美元,印了3.2万亿,相当于目前美联储资产负债表的44%,都是过去一年买出来的;","text":"我们都知道,自2020年3月份疫情爆发以来,美国在疯狂印钞。从央行资产负债表规模来看,从2020年初的4.14万亿美元。变到现在的7.33万亿美元,印了3.2万亿,相当于目前美联储资产负债表的44%,都是过去一年买出来的;","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334720398","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335733731,"gmtCreate":1610640763523,"gmtModify":1703745939598,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以关注一下","listText":"可以关注一下","text":"可以关注一下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae52e0c47654cffe8fb6be35169ee977","width":"1080","height":"3061"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335733731","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972061229,"gmtCreate":1600012362361,"gmtModify":1703820078105,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"由于我们上期文章《巨鳄出现!200亿美金的疯狂赌注!》提前挖掘出美国科技股异动,并且在市场刚出现松动之际提出由于大量的期权交易形成的循环反馈导致市场波动率加大,获得了业内的大量关注。在我们的文章发布一天后,金融时报以及华尔街日报俩家媒体揭开了谜底,原来这个大鳄是孙正义执掌的软银(这个和我们之前的分析一致:这种交易不太像传统对冲基金以及公募基金惯用的手法), 而且交易量竟然比我们预估的还高。正因为这个,媒体给他一个形象的称呼-“Gamma鲸”。在上篇文章中我们解释了为何当大量资金流入期权之后,会形成Gamma效应。虽然Gamma效应本身不是造成股市反转的原因,但是由于巨量Gamma敞口的存在会大幅放大原本市场的波动。这也导致了美国大盘科技股(下图特斯拉)最近的过山车般的走势。","listText":"由于我们上期文章《巨鳄出现!200亿美金的疯狂赌注!》提前挖掘出美国科技股异动,并且在市场刚出现松动之际提出由于大量的期权交易形成的循环反馈导致市场波动率加大,获得了业内的大量关注。在我们的文章发布一天后,金融时报以及华尔街日报俩家媒体揭开了谜底,原来这个大鳄是孙正义执掌的软银(这个和我们之前的分析一致:这种交易不太像传统对冲基金以及公募基金惯用的手法), 而且交易量竟然比我们预估的还高。正因为这个,媒体给他一个形象的称呼-“Gamma鲸”。在上篇文章中我们解释了为何当大量资金流入期权之后,会形成Gamma效应。虽然Gamma效应本身不是造成股市反转的原因,但是由于巨量Gamma敞口的存在会大幅放大原本市场的波动。这也导致了美国大盘科技股(下图特斯拉)最近的过山车般的走势。","text":"由于我们上期文章《巨鳄出现!200亿美金的疯狂赌注!》提前挖掘出美国科技股异动,并且在市场刚出现松动之际提出由于大量的期权交易形成的循环反馈导致市场波动率加大,获得了业内的大量关注。在我们的文章发布一天后,金融时报以及华尔街日报俩家媒体揭开了谜底,原来这个大鳄是孙正义执掌的软银(这个和我们之前的分析一致:这种交易不太像传统对冲基金以及公募基金惯用的手法), 而且交易量竟然比我们预估的还高。正因为这个,媒体给他一个形象的称呼-“Gamma鲸”。在上篇文章中我们解释了为何当大量资金流入期权之后,会形成Gamma效应。虽然Gamma效应本身不是造成股市反转的原因,但是由于巨量Gamma敞口的存在会大幅放大原本市场的波动。这也导致了美国大盘科技股(下图特斯拉)最近的过山车般的走势。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972061229","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329826460,"gmtCreate":1615222471750,"gmtModify":1703485983947,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错","listText":"不错","text":"不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329826460","repostId":"329880642","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":329880642,"gmtCreate":1615220224986,"gmtModify":1703485946554,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"配置方面,如果投资周期是以季度为窗口,当前美股仍具备较强的配置价值,但在美债利率抬升趋势可能贯穿全年的情况下,建议超配周期股,价值股(银行、工业、航空等);标配科技成长股。","listText":"配置方面,如果投资周期是以季度为窗口,当前美股仍具备较强的配置价值,但在美债利率抬升趋势可能贯穿全年的情况下,建议超配周期股,价值股(银行、工业、航空等);标配科技成长股。","text":"配置方面,如果投资周期是以季度为窗口,当前美股仍具备较强的配置价值,但在美债利率抬升趋势可能贯穿全年的情况下,建议超配周期股,价值股(银行、工业、航空等);标配科技成长股。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329880642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319084208,"gmtCreate":1611417290304,"gmtModify":1703750425740,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在市场中跌跌撞撞,在生涯伊始有过无杠杆条件下第一年就超50%的辉煌(同期标普500只有1.38%的涨幅),也有在随后开始接触杠杆后,在市场剧震时期亏光所有盈利并本金腰斩的惨痛经历。","listText":"在市场中跌跌撞撞,在生涯伊始有过无杠杆条件下第一年就超50%的辉煌(同期标普500只有1.38%的涨幅),也有在随后开始接触杠杆后,在市场剧震时期亏光所有盈利并本金腰斩的惨痛经历。","text":"在市场中跌跌撞撞,在生涯伊始有过无杠杆条件下第一年就超50%的辉煌(同期标普500只有1.38%的涨幅),也有在随后开始接触杠杆后,在市场剧震时期亏光所有盈利并本金腰斩的惨痛经历。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319084208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388210848,"gmtCreate":1613057116784,"gmtModify":1703768998537,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"8、冬天的时候去冰岛旅游,只要待上两周时间,就一定能看到极光,这也是冰岛每年冬天人口暴增的因素之一","listText":"8、冬天的时候去冰岛旅游,只要待上两周时间,就一定能看到极光,这也是冰岛每年冬天人口暴增的因素之一","text":"8、冬天的时候去冰岛旅游,只要待上两周时间,就一定能看到极光,这也是冰岛每年冬天人口暴增的因素之一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388210848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334720123,"gmtCreate":1610987236662,"gmtModify":1703747398436,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"美国老长久不了","htmlText":"我们都知道,自2020年3月份疫情爆发以来,美国在疯狂印钞。从央行资产负债表规模来看,从2020年初的4.14万亿美元。变到现在的7.33万亿美元,印了3.2万亿,相当于目前美联储资产负债表的44%,都是过去一年买出来的;","listText":"我们都知道,自2020年3月份疫情爆发以来,美国在疯狂印钞。从央行资产负债表规模来看,从2020年初的4.14万亿美元。变到现在的7.33万亿美元,印了3.2万亿,相当于目前美联储资产负债表的44%,都是过去一年买出来的;","text":"我们都知道,自2020年3月份疫情爆发以来,美国在疯狂印钞。从央行资产负债表规模来看,从2020年初的4.14万亿美元。变到现在的7.33万亿美元,印了3.2万亿,相当于目前美联储资产负债表的44%,都是过去一年买出来的;","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334720123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"美国佬长久不了","text":"美国佬长久不了","html":"美国佬长久不了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331648595,"gmtCreate":1609600304817,"gmtModify":1703739829881,"author":{"id":"3560382232476420","authorId":"3560382232476420","authorIdStr":"3560382232476420","name":"高山有水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611c1a3fe4b6ac994a4b7e91a36b79b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为缘起了,慢慢接触了Options,叹为观止,觉得这个工具太有意思了。抱着边学习边操作的心态,每天会做intraday trading(主要标的是NIO的期权,主要是因为长期看好NIO,并且流通性和波动率很高)。收益占到总体的30%左右。仅仅一次过夜,未来会开始开仓持有一段时间或者购买LEAP来做一些长期的看好的股票。Option就像乐高,怎么用自己的头脑设计相关的策略来搭出自己的option模型真的是一件挺有意思的。","listText":"因为缘起了,慢慢接触了Options,叹为观止,觉得这个工具太有意思了。抱着边学习边操作的心态,每天会做intraday trading(主要标的是NIO的期权,主要是因为长期看好NIO,并且流通性和波动率很高)。收益占到总体的30%左右。仅仅一次过夜,未来会开始开仓持有一段时间或者购买LEAP来做一些长期的看好的股票。Option就像乐高,怎么用自己的头脑设计相关的策略来搭出自己的option模型真的是一件挺有意思的。","text":"因为缘起了,慢慢接触了Options,叹为观止,觉得这个工具太有意思了。抱着边学习边操作的心态,每天会做intraday trading(主要标的是NIO的期权,主要是因为长期看好NIO,并且流通性和波动率很高)。收益占到总体的30%左右。仅仅一次过夜,未来会开始开仓持有一段时间或者购买LEAP来做一些长期的看好的股票。Option就像乐高,怎么用自己的头脑设计相关的策略来搭出自己的option模型真的是一件挺有意思的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331648595","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}