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上车小米

上车小米

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2023-05-16

$小米集团-W(01810)$

2023-04-28

$腾讯控股(00700)$ [开心] [开心] [开心]

2023-01-04

$腾讯控股(00700)$

2022-10-25

$腾讯控股(00700)$为国护盘，打爆空头

2022-10-24

一直看好海天

千禾难以“渔利”海天

2022-10-20

$腾讯控股(00700)$

2022-03-15

$腾讯控股(00700)$卧槽啊😱

2022-03-11

$满帮(YMM)$毁灭吧累了😔

2022-02-04

$腾盛博药-B(02137)$倒闭算了

2022-01-28

$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$累了，毁灭吧

2022-01-28

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$退市算了

2021-12-30

$满帮(YMM)$退市吧

2021-08-12

$华虹半导体(01347)$长期持有

2021-08-11

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$筹码图全是散户牛

2021-08-10

$满帮(YMM)$22本快点来解套

2021-08-10

$腾讯控股(00700)$不容易啊

2021-07-28

$腾讯控股(00700)$老马我王者荣耀充钱了，你咋还跌呢？[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-07-27

$腾讯控股(00700)$两字合适，卧槽

2021-06-29

$满帮(YMM)$哎高点买的被套了

2021-06-28

$百度集团-SW(09888)$终于等到你绝不放弃你

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08:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"千禾难以“渔利”海天","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275606539","media":"格隆汇","summary":"即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。","content":"<html><body><h1><span>同行是冤家。</span><br/></h1><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">海天味业</a>出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。</span></p><p><span>小老弟<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603027\">千禾味业</a></span></span><span>跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。</span></p><p><span>资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/45c51-ea4071d8-3458-4367-bd7a-af0bb3231591.png\"/><span>图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾想要通过趁他人之病，打破调味品行业既有的马太效应，存在三座难以逾越的大山——</span></p><p><span>◆产能规模差距；</span></p><p><span>◆渠道差距；</span></p><p><span>◆以及缺乏技术壁垒。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>01</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>产能规模差距：短期难以弥补</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾面对的第一座大山，就是“装备严重不足”。</span></p><p><span>营收端：海天2021年的营收达到了250.04亿，而千禾仅为19.25亿，不足海天的十分之一；净利润海天达到了66.71亿，千禾仅为2.21亿，接近海天的1/30。</span></p><p><span>营收差距的背后，是双方产能的巨大差距。</span></p><p><span>以2021年的数据为例，千禾的实际产量仅为37.13万吨，不足海天的十分之一，设计产能方面千禾55.3万吨，海天460万吨，双方不是一个数量级，哪怕对比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600872\">中炬高新</a>的产能，千禾味业也不及其一半。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/bfe6e-b11bcc26-4833-4405-8030-40e063fab799.png\"/><span>图：上市调味品公司产能数据，来源：企业财报</span></p><p><span>所以我们看到，这次突发“利好”后，<span>千禾</span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>都出现了不同程度的缺货。尤其是线下端，根据千禾电话交流透露，缺货比例达到了30%-40%。</span></p><p><span>“0添加”的爆火福利，千禾只能吞下很小的一部分。舆论优势来得快去得也快，很显然千禾虽然一直致力于“0添加”产品，但是风口来了后，千禾的受力面积并不大，不会像市场想象的那样乘风飞翔。</span></p><p><span><span>其次就是不得不谈的规模劣势，产销规模牵一发而动全身，千禾2021年报员工数量为2334人，海天为6678人，人数规模差距三倍，人均应收、净利、产量都是海天更高。综合所得人均投产比</span><span>（人均营收/人均费用）</span><span>海天为12.9，而千禾为3.5，差距4倍左右。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a992c-690c133b-bb50-41d5-a53f-3956d96dd654.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天人均数据对比，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>我们再通过另一项指标来透视千禾的规模劣势：通过海天和千禾2021年财报披露的成本结构中看出，千禾的人工成本和制造成本分摊，远低于规模更大的海天。</span></p><p><span>千禾2021年生产成本中，17.76%花在了人工和制造费用上，而同期海天仅为10.15%；按照营收计算，千禾成本中人工和制造费用占比达到10.49%，而海天仅为5.77%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b3f10-e7a88242-cb48-45f4-bd3f-7e9f7a9b3ac2.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天制造成本对比，来源：企业财报</span></p><p><span>总的来说，以目前千禾的产能规模来看，完全不足以接住舆论优势传过来的“好球”，并且从各项规模指标来看，千禾想要吃掉海天的利润，难上加难。</span></p><p><span>当然除了产能和规模，渠道方面的劣势也不可忽视。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>02</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>渠道劣势：B端难以突破逆向棘轮</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾要翻过的“第二座山”就是“行军路线”，即渠道差距。尤其是在逆向棘轮效应下，面向B端那几乎不可跨越的鸿沟。</span></p><p><span>首先我们对比二者的渠道差距，千禾的经销商数量为1900家左右，而海天的经销商达到了7000家以上。先发优势让海天建立了渗透率高、成本率低的经销体系，千禾目前的销售人员占比达到了48.97%，而海天仅为30.29%。</span></p><p><span>海天的渠道完善可以实现花小钱办大事的效果，而千禾则还处于需要依赖人员规模实现地推和管理的阶段。</span></p><p><span>再看B端，以2021年为例，B端销售占海天营收的50%以上，而千禾B端的收入占比很小。</span></p><p><span>“抓住厨师就是抓住市场”，餐饮业B端的消费量非常大，这也是海天能够实现快速增长的根源之一。当然目前千禾也盯上了这块蛋糕，推出了多款低端产品想要切入B端市场，前景却不够乐观，主要的原因在于餐饮界B端是典型的逆向棘轮效应。</span></p><p><span>所谓棘轮效应，指的是人的消费习惯形成之后有不可逆性，即易于向上调整，而难于向下调整。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/53794-e2db60a1-eb13-47a4-9a67-0f5d1465e75e.png\"/><span>图：棘轮效应，来源：网络图片</span></p><p><span>首先海天通过与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>等厨师学校的合作，培养了厨师们使用海天调味品的习惯。其次逆向棘轮在于，B端市场对成本的敏感性要远高于C端市场，即易于向下调整，而难于向上调整。毕竟商家也不愿意蚕食自身的利润。</span></p><p><span>这个时候海天的成本优势就凸显出来，低端产品线布局很广，B端的消费者也不会轻易切换到其他品牌的产品上去，这就使得海天在B端的优势被无限放大。</span></p><p><span>B端消费者稳定的特征有益于企业的发展，我们从同业上市公司进行对比可以发现，像海天这样B端市场占比较大的公司，整体的营运能力是要显著高于同行的：</span></p><p><span>无论是下游存货管理，还是应收账款管理，亦或是包含整个供应链的营业周期，海天已经借助B端市场的稳定形成了完整的供应链体系和内外良性的现金流循环。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/5d77f-c00ad774-d200-46b6-8b38-3302a4c94b59.png\"/><span>图：调味品上市公司营运能力数据，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>我国目前调味品市场的占比为餐饮业40%-50%、家庭30%-40%，工业10%。千禾的渠道市场还是以C端家庭为主，在B端千禾既没有成本优势，又缺乏消费者心智。</span></p><p><span>所以说，千禾仅靠舆论风波想要实现指数性的市占率提升，并不现实。</span></p><p><span>除此之外，即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>03</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>“0添加”不是零和游戏，调味品马太效应明显</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾要面临的“第三座大山”，就是自身的“武力”不足。</span></p><p><span><span>千禾前身恒泰实业，自身是以向其他企业出售添加剂</span><span>（焦糖色）</span><span>起家，2001年拓展产品线进军调味品行业，于2008年首推了“0添加”调味品，而此时海天的营收规模已经达到了40亿量级。</span></span></p><p><span>千禾想要开辟市场，“0添加”的差异化赛道便成了其押宝的重点。</span></p><p><span>多年以来千禾确实一直在宣传推广其“0添加”的产品，整体“0添加”产品的销售占比也超过了一半，似乎多年的深耕就在等待着市场消费者心智的转变，从而实现跨越。</span></p><p><span>但是，正如我们开头举的例子，在消费品行业想要实现弯道超车，需要有技术壁垒支撑，等待科技或政策东风。</span></p><p><span>就比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>就是依靠功能机向智能机转变的风口，以自身深耕多年的信息技术立足，推出跨时代的产品一举超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>；又比如茅台就是依赖天然的地理优势，发挥酱香优势和其独一无二的金融属性，一举超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>；再比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>就是依靠多年在新能源领域的深耕，迎来市场政策导向的东风从而一举超车。</span></p><p><span>但是，在调味品领域，实际上科技属性并不强，资本在研发层面的支出，不会因为时间长短形成显著差异。以酱油为例，经历了二十多年的发展，无外乎在味道，配料比来回变动。最终比来比去，还是依靠渠道和成本。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/d0d01-b863661f-046f-4459-b85d-e2bcdbabad64.png\"/><span>图：商品酱油品类发展历程，来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">东兴证券</a>研究所</span></p><p><span><span>换句话说，就算消费者最终都转向“0添加”的产品，千禾能做，海天也能做，厨邦</span><span>（中炬高新）</span><span>、李锦记、加加也都能做，而且本身就有布局产品线，你千禾能有什么优势？</span></span></p><p><strong><span>别说优势，甚至可能还存在劣势。</span></strong></p><p><span>传统消费品市场，马太效应也非常明显，比如同样是推广市场，海天每年会赞助《青春环游记》、《吐槽大会》、《中国诗词大会》等一众网络电视节目，而千禾2021年上半年因为选择了电视广告的投放，净利润同比下降58.09%，导致其后来放弃了线上投放，转而进行成本较低的线下推广。</span><span>二者的自由现金流和流动资产的差距过于明显。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/04118-233a5df6-3b72-4d55-a6a2-650c5e04bd83.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天自由现金流、流动资产对比，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>海天拥有的自由现金流更多，如果“0添加”有机食品真的崛起，完全可以加大投入宣传自家的“0添加”产品，也可以对现有生产线进行改造。而反观千禾，自由现金流2021年仅为-0.99亿，能够用于增资扩产的钱明显不足，所以自然很难承接新的市场。</span></p><p><span>再来看研发投入，即便在调味品行业这个技术成熟度较高的行业，</span><span>海天的研发投入也是其他三家上市公司之和的两倍之多</span><span>。</span></p><p><span>有钱任性，保不准海天在“0添加”的基础上，通过研发实现技术升级，在口味上保持相同的口感，从而进一步提升市场占有率。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a1f9e-381b39c4-4b70-4912-bc43-60136d3006c1.png\"/><span>图：2018-2021年调味品企业研发投入，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>所以说，“0添加”的游戏不是“零和博弈”，即便海天短期内蒙受了部分销量和市值的损失，得益的肯定也不完全是千禾，千禾无论是产品技术端，还是资本储备端，都不具备任何优势。</span></p><p><span>长期来看即便真的实现了调味品的消费升级，最终能够承接市场，或者进行进一步技术升级的还是海天，马太效应明显。</span></p><p><span>以上，所谓“海天跌倒，千禾吃饱”的说法，可休矣。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>04</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>结语：滴水穿石，非一日之功</span></font></h3><p><span>其实拿千禾与海天进行对比，本身就是不太公平的事，按照成立年限算，千禾做调味品比海天晚了二十多年。甚至可以说“海天吃的盐，比千禾吃的饭都多”。</span></p><p><span>目前来看，千禾确实受到了“海克斯酱油”事件的正向影响，市值短短一周增长了超过20%，根据渠道商交流，国庆期间线上线下市场整体销量增幅较预期增长了25%左右。</span></p><p><span><span>但是千禾无论是产能渠道还是技术规模层面，都不足以承接海天的市场，千禾想要上演“勇者斗恶龙”，前面甚至还有中炬高新</span><span>（厨邦）</span><span>，李锦记等传统调味品公司做拦路虎。</span></span></p><p><span>所以那些呼吁千禾代替海天的观点，情绪上可以理解；但是如果天真的以为这就是未来趋势，那只能劝告他：尽量保护好自己的钱包。</span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>千禾难以“渔利”海天</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n千禾难以“渔利”海天\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-14 08:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>同行是冤家。海天味业出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。小老弟千禾味业跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1a443-7f8e714c-3f82-419f-8c06-d3298bbfcba3.jpg","relate_stocks":{"603027":"千禾味业","603288":"海天味业","BK0175":"白马股","BK0132":"高送转概念","BK0226":"食品制造","BK0028":"国家队","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0201":"可转债","BK0196":"行业龙头"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2275606539","content_text":"同行是冤家。海天味业出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。小老弟千禾味业跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾想要通过趁他人之病，打破调味品行业既有的马太效应，存在三座难以逾越的大山——◆产能规模差距；◆渠道差距；◆以及缺乏技术壁垒。01产能规模差距：短期难以弥补千禾面对的第一座大山，就是“装备严重不足”。营收端：海天2021年的营收达到了250.04亿，而千禾仅为19.25亿，不足海天的十分之一；净利润海天达到了66.71亿，千禾仅为2.21亿，接近海天的1/30。营收差距的背后，是双方产能的巨大差距。以2021年的数据为例，千禾的实际产量仅为37.13万吨，不足海天的十分之一，设计产能方面千禾55.3万吨，海天460万吨，双方不是一个数量级，哪怕对比中炬高新的产能，千禾味业也不及其一半。图：上市调味品公司产能数据，来源：企业财报所以我们看到，这次突发“利好”后，千禾线上线下都出现了不同程度的缺货。尤其是线下端，根据千禾电话交流透露，缺货比例达到了30%-40%。“0添加”的爆火福利，千禾只能吞下很小的一部分。舆论优势来得快去得也快，很显然千禾虽然一直致力于“0添加”产品，但是风口来了后，千禾的受力面积并不大，不会像市场想象的那样乘风飞翔。其次就是不得不谈的规模劣势，产销规模牵一发而动全身，千禾2021年报员工数量为2334人，海天为6678人，人数规模差距三倍，人均应收、净利、产量都是海天更高。综合所得人均投产比（人均营收/人均费用）海天为12.9，而千禾为3.5，差距4倍左右。图：千禾海天人均数据对比，来源：Choice金融客户端我们再通过另一项指标来透视千禾的规模劣势：通过海天和千禾2021年财报披露的成本结构中看出，千禾的人工成本和制造成本分摊，远低于规模更大的海天。千禾2021年生产成本中，17.76%花在了人工和制造费用上，而同期海天仅为10.15%；按照营收计算，千禾成本中人工和制造费用占比达到10.49%，而海天仅为5.77%。图：千禾海天制造成本对比，来源：企业财报总的来说，以目前千禾的产能规模来看，完全不足以接住舆论优势传过来的“好球”，并且从各项规模指标来看，千禾想要吃掉海天的利润，难上加难。当然除了产能和规模，渠道方面的劣势也不可忽视。02渠道劣势：B端难以突破逆向棘轮千禾要翻过的“第二座山”就是“行军路线”，即渠道差距。尤其是在逆向棘轮效应下，面向B端那几乎不可跨越的鸿沟。首先我们对比二者的渠道差距，千禾的经销商数量为1900家左右，而海天的经销商达到了7000家以上。先发优势让海天建立了渗透率高、成本率低的经销体系，千禾目前的销售人员占比达到了48.97%，而海天仅为30.29%。海天的渠道完善可以实现花小钱办大事的效果，而千禾则还处于需要依赖人员规模实现地推和管理的阶段。再看B端，以2021年为例，B端销售占海天营收的50%以上，而千禾B端的收入占比很小。“抓住厨师就是抓住市场”，餐饮业B端的消费量非常大，这也是海天能够实现快速增长的根源之一。当然目前千禾也盯上了这块蛋糕，推出了多款低端产品想要切入B端市场，前景却不够乐观，主要的原因在于餐饮界B端是典型的逆向棘轮效应。所谓棘轮效应，指的是人的消费习惯形成之后有不可逆性，即易于向上调整，而难于向下调整。图：棘轮效应，来源：网络图片首先海天通过与新东方等厨师学校的合作，培养了厨师们使用海天调味品的习惯。其次逆向棘轮在于，B端市场对成本的敏感性要远高于C端市场，即易于向下调整，而难于向上调整。毕竟商家也不愿意蚕食自身的利润。这个时候海天的成本优势就凸显出来，低端产品线布局很广，B端的消费者也不会轻易切换到其他品牌的产品上去，这就使得海天在B端的优势被无限放大。B端消费者稳定的特征有益于企业的发展，我们从同业上市公司进行对比可以发现，像海天这样B端市场占比较大的公司，整体的营运能力是要显著高于同行的：无论是下游存货管理，还是应收账款管理，亦或是包含整个供应链的营业周期，海天已经借助B端市场的稳定形成了完整的供应链体系和内外良性的现金流循环。图：调味品上市公司营运能力数据，来源：Choice金融客户端我国目前调味品市场的占比为餐饮业40%-50%、家庭30%-40%，工业10%。千禾的渠道市场还是以C端家庭为主，在B端千禾既没有成本优势，又缺乏消费者心智。所以说，千禾仅靠舆论风波想要实现指数性的市占率提升，并不现实。除此之外，即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。03“0添加”不是零和游戏，调味品马太效应明显千禾要面临的“第三座大山”，就是自身的“武力”不足。千禾前身恒泰实业，自身是以向其他企业出售添加剂（焦糖色）起家，2001年拓展产品线进军调味品行业，于2008年首推了“0添加”调味品，而此时海天的营收规模已经达到了40亿量级。千禾想要开辟市场，“0添加”的差异化赛道便成了其押宝的重点。多年以来千禾确实一直在宣传推广其“0添加”的产品，整体“0添加”产品的销售占比也超过了一半，似乎多年的深耕就在等待着市场消费者心智的转变，从而实现跨越。但是，正如我们开头举的例子，在消费品行业想要实现弯道超车，需要有技术壁垒支撑，等待科技或政策东风。就比如苹果就是依靠功能机向智能机转变的风口，以自身深耕多年的信息技术立足，推出跨时代的产品一举超过诺基亚；又比如茅台就是依赖天然的地理优势，发挥酱香优势和其独一无二的金融属性，一举超过五粮液；再比如比亚迪就是依靠多年在新能源领域的深耕，迎来市场政策导向的东风从而一举超车。但是，在调味品领域，实际上科技属性并不强，资本在研发层面的支出，不会因为时间长短形成显著差异。以酱油为例，经历了二十多年的发展，无外乎在味道，配料比来回变动。最终比来比去，还是依靠渠道和成本。图：商品酱油品类发展历程，来源：东兴证券研究所换句话说，就算消费者最终都转向“0添加”的产品，千禾能做，海天也能做，厨邦（中炬高新）、李锦记、加加也都能做，而且本身就有布局产品线，你千禾能有什么优势？别说优势，甚至可能还存在劣势。传统消费品市场，马太效应也非常明显，比如同样是推广市场，海天每年会赞助《青春环游记》、《吐槽大会》、《中国诗词大会》等一众网络电视节目，而千禾2021年上半年因为选择了电视广告的投放，净利润同比下降58.09%，导致其后来放弃了线上投放，转而进行成本较低的线下推广。二者的自由现金流和流动资产的差距过于明显。图：千禾海天自由现金流、流动资产对比，来源：Choice金融客户端海天拥有的自由现金流更多，如果“0添加”有机食品真的崛起，完全可以加大投入宣传自家的“0添加”产品，也可以对现有生产线进行改造。而反观千禾，自由现金流2021年仅为-0.99亿，能够用于增资扩产的钱明显不足，所以自然很难承接新的市场。再来看研发投入，即便在调味品行业这个技术成熟度较高的行业，海天的研发投入也是其他三家上市公司之和的两倍之多。有钱任性，保不准海天在“0添加”的基础上，通过研发实现技术升级，在口味上保持相同的口感，从而进一步提升市场占有率。图：2018-2021年调味品企业研发投入，来源：Choice金融客户端所以说，“0添加”的游戏不是“零和博弈”，即便海天短期内蒙受了部分销量和市值的损失，得益的肯定也不完全是千禾，千禾无论是产品技术端，还是资本储备端，都不具备任何优势。长期来看即便真的实现了调味品的消费升级，最终能够承接市场，或者进行进一步技术升级的还是海天，马太效应明显。以上，所谓“海天跌倒，千禾吃饱”的说法，可休矣。04结语：滴水穿石，非一日之功其实拿千禾与海天进行对比，本身就是不太公平的事，按照成立年限算，千禾做调味品比海天晚了二十多年。甚至可以说“海天吃的盐，比千禾吃的饭都多”。目前来看，千禾确实受到了“海克斯酱油”事件的正向影响，市值短短一周增长了超过20%，根据渠道商交流，国庆期间线上线下市场整体销量增幅较预期增长了25%左右。但是千禾无论是产能渠道还是技术规模层面，都不足以承接海天的市场，千禾想要上演“勇者斗恶龙”，前面甚至还有中炬高新（厨邦），李锦记等传统调味品公司做拦路虎。所以那些呼吁千禾代替海天的观点，情绪上可以理解；但是如果天真的以为这就是未来趋势，那只能劝告他：尽量保护好自己的钱包。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662168729,"gmtCreate":1666264870562,"gmtModify":1666264871830,"author":{"id":"3559880360271757","authorId":"3559880360271757","name":"上车小米","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51af148b846ad9b565c22d061e6f6dbb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559880360271757","authorIdStr":"3559880360271757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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