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2021-02-10

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Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?

2021-06-18

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@小虎活动:【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金

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Column: The FDA's hasty approval of a new Alzheimer's drug is looking worse than ever

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go to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","listText":"Let’s go to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","text":"Let’s go to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159219960","repostId":"1128482198","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126835564,"gmtCreate":1624550631058,"gmtModify":1631890002896,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go","listText":"Let’s go","text":"Let’s go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126835564","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198422658","pubTimestamp":1624533829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198422658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 19:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198422658","media":"The Street","summary":"Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?At first glance, Apple  -Get Report and Amazon  -Get Report stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.First, I find it hig","content":"<blockquote>\n Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n</blockquote>\n<p>At first glance, Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.</p>\n<p>But the Amazon Maven has unearthed an interesting finding. Both AAPL and AMZN are worth almost the same, in P/E terms, if one were to look forward to 2025. At comparable valuations, which is a better buy-and-hold through the mid-2020s?</p>\n<p><b>AAPL and AMZN: same valuation?</b></p>\n<p>The P/E multiple is a popular valuation metric that adds context to a stock’s market price. The numerator tends to be prior-year (trailing), current-year or next-year (forward) earnings per share.</p>\n<p>Amazon commands a higher multiple, among other reasons, because of the company’s more aggressive growth profile. Wall Street expects the e-commerce giant to increase EPS by a factor of four in the next five years. Apple, on the other hand, is project to “only” double earnings in the same period.</p>\n<p>By 2025, this is what analysts expect of each company’s bottom line, and what the stock’s P/E would be if share prices remained unchanged:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Amazon</b>: 2025 EPS of $172.30, for a P/E of<b>20.4</b>times</li>\n <li><b>Apple</b>: fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.30, for a P/E of<b>21.2</b>times</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Given enough time and assuming that current earnings projections are close enough to accurate, Amazon tends to become a less aggressively valued stock by the year. Maybe one day, in the not-too-distant future, shares could even start to look more appealing to value investors.</p>\n<p><b>Which is the best bet?</b></p>\n<p>If Amazon and Apple are valued at roughly the same 2025 P/E, one fair question to ask is: which stock might perform best in the next five years? I can use the earnings multiple as a guide to think through this question.</p>\n<p>From the P/E formula, one can derive the following: future stock price is determined by the company’s earnings delivered (the denominator “E”) and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings (the valuation multiple). Therefore, in the Amazon vs. Apple race to 2025, whichever does best at delivering EPS above consensus and/or commanding a richer earnings multiple wins.</p>\n<p>Clearly, this is open for debate since the future in uncertain. But I believe that Amazon stock has a better chance of producing higher gains than Apple through 2025.</p>\n<p>First, I find it highly unlikely that AMZN’s earnings multiple will converge from the 60s of today to the low 20s in 2025. This would only be feasible if the company’s growth opportunities dried out quickly, which I am not counting on. On the other hand, Apple’s P/E is more likely to stay around 20 to 25 times, given the more mature profile of the company relative to Amazon.</p>\n<p>This is not to say that I expect Amazon’s P/E to expand from 64 times. The opposite is more likely to happen, as the company ages. But if the stock is valued at, say, 40 times EPS in 2025, Amazon would not even need to deliver results beyond expectations to see its stock price double in five years.</p>\n<p>Regarding consensus, I also think that Amazon can beat expectations by a wider margin than Apple could. The e-commerce giant has been more aggressive at investing back in the business. The green- and brown-field revenue growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem better.</p>\n<p>In addition, Amazon’s margins could expand substantially (see five-year trend below), if or once the company’s online retail business gets closer to maturity. Apple could also improve its margin profile but probably much less so, given how profitable the company already is.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e59ae6a459751303dfd48c45ae47f99\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Figure 2: AMZN gross margin vs. operating margin.</i></p>\n<p><i>Stock Rover</i></p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>Fun fact: Amazon and Apple stock trade at roughly the same 2025 P/E (i.e. 2025 earnings in the denominator) of around 21 times, even though AMZN seems much more expensive at today’s valuations. Which do you think will produce more gains in the next five years?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56ed880cf0d62550fc0ee752a46efff\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 19:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n\nAt first glance, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198422658","content_text":"Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n\nAt first glance, Apple (AAPL) -Get Report and Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.\nBut the Amazon Maven has unearthed an interesting finding. Both AAPL and AMZN are worth almost the same, in P/E terms, if one were to look forward to 2025. At comparable valuations, which is a better buy-and-hold through the mid-2020s?\nAAPL and AMZN: same valuation?\nThe P/E multiple is a popular valuation metric that adds context to a stock’s market price. The numerator tends to be prior-year (trailing), current-year or next-year (forward) earnings per share.\nAmazon commands a higher multiple, among other reasons, because of the company’s more aggressive growth profile. Wall Street expects the e-commerce giant to increase EPS by a factor of four in the next five years. Apple, on the other hand, is project to “only” double earnings in the same period.\nBy 2025, this is what analysts expect of each company’s bottom line, and what the stock’s P/E would be if share prices remained unchanged:\n\nAmazon: 2025 EPS of $172.30, for a P/E of20.4times\nApple: fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.30, for a P/E of21.2times\n\nGiven enough time and assuming that current earnings projections are close enough to accurate, Amazon tends to become a less aggressively valued stock by the year. Maybe one day, in the not-too-distant future, shares could even start to look more appealing to value investors.\nWhich is the best bet?\nIf Amazon and Apple are valued at roughly the same 2025 P/E, one fair question to ask is: which stock might perform best in the next five years? I can use the earnings multiple as a guide to think through this question.\nFrom the P/E formula, one can derive the following: future stock price is determined by the company’s earnings delivered (the denominator “E”) and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings (the valuation multiple). Therefore, in the Amazon vs. Apple race to 2025, whichever does best at delivering EPS above consensus and/or commanding a richer earnings multiple wins.\nClearly, this is open for debate since the future in uncertain. But I believe that Amazon stock has a better chance of producing higher gains than Apple through 2025.\nFirst, I find it highly unlikely that AMZN’s earnings multiple will converge from the 60s of today to the low 20s in 2025. This would only be feasible if the company’s growth opportunities dried out quickly, which I am not counting on. On the other hand, Apple’s P/E is more likely to stay around 20 to 25 times, given the more mature profile of the company relative to Amazon.\nThis is not to say that I expect Amazon’s P/E to expand from 64 times. The opposite is more likely to happen, as the company ages. But if the stock is valued at, say, 40 times EPS in 2025, Amazon would not even need to deliver results beyond expectations to see its stock price double in five years.\nRegarding consensus, I also think that Amazon can beat expectations by a wider margin than Apple could. The e-commerce giant has been more aggressive at investing back in the business. The green- and brown-field revenue growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem better.\nIn addition, Amazon’s margins could expand substantially (see five-year trend below), if or once the company’s online retail business gets closer to maturity. Apple could also improve its margin profile but probably much less so, given how profitable the company already is.\nFigure 2: AMZN gross margin vs. operating margin.\nStock Rover\nTwitter speaks\nFun fact: Amazon and Apple stock trade at roughly the same 2025 P/E (i.e. 2025 earnings in the denominator) of around 21 times, even though AMZN seems much more expensive at today’s valuations. Which do you think will produce more gains in the next five years?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167424104,"gmtCreate":1624282951408,"gmtModify":1631890002905,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💎🙌","listText":"💎🙌","text":"💎🙌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167424104","repostId":"1151942722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162923648,"gmtCreate":1624032184584,"gmtModify":1631890002915,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162923648","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168654637,"gmtCreate":1623974842029,"gmtModify":1631890002928,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull?","listText":"Bull?","text":"Bull?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168654637","repostId":"1198660084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198660084","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623937153,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198660084?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198660084","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading，GOLD and RGLD shares tumbled nearly 3%,KGC shares dropped","content":"<p>Gold&nbsp;sector&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading，GOLD&nbsp;and&nbsp;RGLD&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%,KGC&nbsp;shares&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d4ade715c0085abc49f388d1a668f1e\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"578\">Gold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.</p>\n<p>The metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.</p>\n<p>The central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.</p>\n<p>“We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”</p>\n<p>Spot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold sector stocks fell in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 21:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Gold&nbsp;sector&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading，GOLD&nbsp;and&nbsp;RGLD&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%,KGC&nbsp;shares&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d4ade715c0085abc49f388d1a668f1e\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"578\">Gold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.</p>\n<p>The metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.</p>\n<p>The central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.</p>\n<p>“We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”</p>\n<p>Spot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KGC":"金罗斯黄金","RGLD":"皇家黄金","GOLD":"巴里克黄金"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198660084","content_text":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading，GOLD and RGLD shares tumbled nearly 3%,KGC shares dropped more than 4%.\nGold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.\nThe metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.\nThe central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.\n“We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”\nSpot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168652509,"gmtCreate":1623974793501,"gmtModify":1631890002939,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168652509","repostId":"1162782159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168650537,"gmtCreate":1623974670229,"gmtModify":1631890002947,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😨","listText":"😨","text":"😨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168650537","repostId":"2144690742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144690742","pubTimestamp":1623942044,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144690742?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Column: The FDA's hasty approval of a new Alzheimer's drug is looking worse than ever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144690742","media":"LA Times","summary":"The FDA's decision on Aduhelm sets up a healthcare spending crisis. \nFollowing a year in which the F","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a6526be3c93006ee9d37664f7f4650b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The FDA's decision on Aduhelm sets up a healthcare spending crisis.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Following a year in which the Food and Drug Administration meekly allowed President Trump to denigrate its integrity and undermine its judgment, it wasn't clear that the agency could fall even lower in public and professional esteem.</p>\n<p>It's clear now. The FDA's widely criticized decision on June 7 to approve the new Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm despite a nearly complete absence of evidence that it works is looking worse and worse with every day that passes.</p>\n<p>The latest data point underscoring the disastrous consequences of the FDA approval is related to the sky-high average price of $56,000 a year for the drug set by its U.S. manufacturer, Biogen.</p>\n<blockquote>\n The limited evidence for the efficacy of Aduhelm raises the question of whether its large impact on health spending is justified.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Altarum consultants</p>\n<p>According to a report by the nonprofit healthcare consulting organization Altarum, if the drug is prescribed for only 1 million patients a year — the low end of Biogen's marketing expectations — by the mid-2020s it will account for more than 1% of all national health spending. In 2025, for instance, when total spending is expected to reach abut $5.3 trillion, $57 billion of that will be spent on Aduhelm.</p>\n<p>The drug will increase all prescription drug spending by 8% and non-retail drug spending — that is, for drugs that have to be administered in hospitals or doctors' offices — by 25%. If the patient caseload doubles, so will those figures. And the FDA's approval would allow Aduhelm to be prescribed for any of the nation's Alzheimer's patients, who currently number more than 6 million.</p>\n<p>That will impose higher costs on 56 million Americans enrolled in Medicare Part B even if they don't suffer from Alzheimer's, the Kaiser Family Foundation observes. That's because Medicare is required by law to cover all prescription medicines approved by the FDA. Part B premiums rise with Medicare's expenses, so the higher spending on Adulhelm will hit all premium payers in the pocketbook.</p>\n<p>If 1 million Part B members take Aduhelm, the program's 80% share of the drug's cost would come to nearly $45 billion, or well more than the $37 billion Medicare paid for all Part B drugs in 2019.</p>\n<p>Many Medicare patients taking the drug will be hard-pressed to afford it, KFF notes. Their 20%, uncapped share of Part B drug and services costs would mean an average bill of $11,200 per year for the drug. That's almost 40% of the $29,650 median income of Medicare Part B members.</p>\n<p>It gets worse. Altarum's estimates don't encompass the ancillary costs that will be associated with taking Aduhelm. Because the clinical trials revealed that about 30% of patients receiving a high dose of the drug experienced brain swelling, patients will have to undergo regular MRI tests to watch out for this dangerous side effect. They'll have to pay their share of that, too.</p>\n<p>This isn't the first time that a new drug has threatened to break the national healthcare bank. The best comparison may be the hepatitis-C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni, which were priced by their developer, Gilead, at $84,000 and nearly $100,000 per year, respectively.</p>\n<p>Those drugs drove annual growth in retail prescription spending from 2.2% in 2013 to 13.5% in 2014, after their introduction, Altarum says.</p>\n<p>But there are differences. Sovaldi and Harvoni cured more than 90% of hepatitis-C patients after a single round of treatment, so the spending on any patient lasted less than a year; measuring their cost against the cost of treating hepatitis-C patients indefinitely made the cost-benefit balance obvious. Indeed, by 2016, when most patients had been treated, the prescription growth rate fell back to 1.7%,</p>\n<p>But Aduhelm is neither a cure nor a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-time treatment. \"Aduhelm is to be administered repeatedly throughout the patient’s lifetime or until the patient and his or her physician elect to discontinue treatment,\" Altarum explains. \"The resultant growth in spending will therefore be sustained for the foreseeable future.\"</p>\n<p>The organization's bottom line: \"The limited evidence for the efficacy of Aduhelm raises the question of whether its large impact on health spending is justified.\"</p>\n<p>As bad as the FDA's decision is looking today, it didn't start out as a widely praised action, either. As we reported last week, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> member of the FDA scientific advisory committee that had examined results from the drug's clinical trials pronounced the action \"probably the worst drug approval decision in recent U.S. history” in a letter resigning from the committee.</p>\n<p>The 11-member committee had advised almost unanimously against the approval. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> other members also resigned after the FDA ignored the panel's recommendation.</p>\n<p>Alzheimer's specialists are concerned about the FDA decision for more than financial reasons. They fear that the existence of a drug with the FDA's imprimatur, as questionable as it is, will interfere with efforts to develop and test other treatments that may turn out to be more promising.</p>\n<p>Patients may be reluctant to enroll in trials of alternative drugs instead of taking Aduhelm, for example. And researchers trying to recruit trial subjects will have to reject anyone who has been treated with Aduhelm, because it will be difficult, if not impossible, to determine whether a given result is due to Aduhelm or the new drug.</p>\n<p>The longest-lasting effect, however, may be on the FDA's reputation for imposing rigorous safety and efficacy standards. The pharmaceutical industry has long groused about the agency's painstaking approval process, even though it has given the American drug market an image as the safest in the world.</p>\n<p>The drugmakers have consistently pushed for faster approvals and the acceptance of ever more sketchy evidence from clinical trials.</p>\n<p>Aaron S. Kesselheim, the Harvard professor who delivered that damning judgment about the FDA approval before resigning from its advisory panel, has called for the creation of a new agency to oversee drug approvals, presumably inoculated from pressure from Big Pharma.</p>\n<p>The FDA's approval of a high-priced, apparently low-value drug that will yield billions of dollars in profits for its manufacturer may even spur Congress finally to take America's drug-price crisis in hand and find a solution. That could be the silver lining around the cloud of the FDA's action.</p>\n<p>But it will be a shame that an agency that reigned as a bulwark against unsafe and ineffective drugs since its founding in 1906 had to fall so low to achieve that goal.</p>\n<p>This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Column: The FDA's hasty approval of a new Alzheimer's drug is looking worse than ever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nColumn: The FDA's hasty approval of a new Alzheimer's drug is looking worse than ever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-fdas-hasty-approval-alzheimers-144244083.html><strong>LA Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The FDA's decision on Aduhelm sets up a healthcare spending crisis. \nFollowing a year in which the Food and Drug Administration meekly allowed President Trump to denigrate its integrity and undermine ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-fdas-hasty-approval-alzheimers-144244083.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-fdas-hasty-approval-alzheimers-144244083.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2144690742","content_text":"The FDA's decision on Aduhelm sets up a healthcare spending crisis. \nFollowing a year in which the Food and Drug Administration meekly allowed President Trump to denigrate its integrity and undermine its judgment, it wasn't clear that the agency could fall even lower in public and professional esteem.\nIt's clear now. The FDA's widely criticized decision on June 7 to approve the new Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm despite a nearly complete absence of evidence that it works is looking worse and worse with every day that passes.\nThe latest data point underscoring the disastrous consequences of the FDA approval is related to the sky-high average price of $56,000 a year for the drug set by its U.S. manufacturer, Biogen.\n\n The limited evidence for the efficacy of Aduhelm raises the question of whether its large impact on health spending is justified.\n\nAltarum consultants\nAccording to a report by the nonprofit healthcare consulting organization Altarum, if the drug is prescribed for only 1 million patients a year — the low end of Biogen's marketing expectations — by the mid-2020s it will account for more than 1% of all national health spending. In 2025, for instance, when total spending is expected to reach abut $5.3 trillion, $57 billion of that will be spent on Aduhelm.\nThe drug will increase all prescription drug spending by 8% and non-retail drug spending — that is, for drugs that have to be administered in hospitals or doctors' offices — by 25%. If the patient caseload doubles, so will those figures. And the FDA's approval would allow Aduhelm to be prescribed for any of the nation's Alzheimer's patients, who currently number more than 6 million.\nThat will impose higher costs on 56 million Americans enrolled in Medicare Part B even if they don't suffer from Alzheimer's, the Kaiser Family Foundation observes. That's because Medicare is required by law to cover all prescription medicines approved by the FDA. Part B premiums rise with Medicare's expenses, so the higher spending on Adulhelm will hit all premium payers in the pocketbook.\nIf 1 million Part B members take Aduhelm, the program's 80% share of the drug's cost would come to nearly $45 billion, or well more than the $37 billion Medicare paid for all Part B drugs in 2019.\nMany Medicare patients taking the drug will be hard-pressed to afford it, KFF notes. Their 20%, uncapped share of Part B drug and services costs would mean an average bill of $11,200 per year for the drug. That's almost 40% of the $29,650 median income of Medicare Part B members.\nIt gets worse. Altarum's estimates don't encompass the ancillary costs that will be associated with taking Aduhelm. Because the clinical trials revealed that about 30% of patients receiving a high dose of the drug experienced brain swelling, patients will have to undergo regular MRI tests to watch out for this dangerous side effect. They'll have to pay their share of that, too.\nThis isn't the first time that a new drug has threatened to break the national healthcare bank. The best comparison may be the hepatitis-C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni, which were priced by their developer, Gilead, at $84,000 and nearly $100,000 per year, respectively.\nThose drugs drove annual growth in retail prescription spending from 2.2% in 2013 to 13.5% in 2014, after their introduction, Altarum says.\nBut there are differences. Sovaldi and Harvoni cured more than 90% of hepatitis-C patients after a single round of treatment, so the spending on any patient lasted less than a year; measuring their cost against the cost of treating hepatitis-C patients indefinitely made the cost-benefit balance obvious. Indeed, by 2016, when most patients had been treated, the prescription growth rate fell back to 1.7%,\nBut Aduhelm is neither a cure nor a one-time treatment. \"Aduhelm is to be administered repeatedly throughout the patient’s lifetime or until the patient and his or her physician elect to discontinue treatment,\" Altarum explains. \"The resultant growth in spending will therefore be sustained for the foreseeable future.\"\nThe organization's bottom line: \"The limited evidence for the efficacy of Aduhelm raises the question of whether its large impact on health spending is justified.\"\nAs bad as the FDA's decision is looking today, it didn't start out as a widely praised action, either. As we reported last week, one member of the FDA scientific advisory committee that had examined results from the drug's clinical trials pronounced the action \"probably the worst drug approval decision in recent U.S. history” in a letter resigning from the committee.\nThe 11-member committee had advised almost unanimously against the approval. Two other members also resigned after the FDA ignored the panel's recommendation.\nAlzheimer's specialists are concerned about the FDA decision for more than financial reasons. They fear that the existence of a drug with the FDA's imprimatur, as questionable as it is, will interfere with efforts to develop and test other treatments that may turn out to be more promising.\nPatients may be reluctant to enroll in trials of alternative drugs instead of taking Aduhelm, for example. And researchers trying to recruit trial subjects will have to reject anyone who has been treated with Aduhelm, because it will be difficult, if not impossible, to determine whether a given result is due to Aduhelm or the new drug.\nThe longest-lasting effect, however, may be on the FDA's reputation for imposing rigorous safety and efficacy standards. The pharmaceutical industry has long groused about the agency's painstaking approval process, even though it has given the American drug market an image as the safest in the world.\nThe drugmakers have consistently pushed for faster approvals and the acceptance of ever more sketchy evidence from clinical trials.\nAaron S. Kesselheim, the Harvard professor who delivered that damning judgment about the FDA approval before resigning from its advisory panel, has called for the creation of a new agency to oversee drug approvals, presumably inoculated from pressure from Big Pharma.\nThe FDA's approval of a high-priced, apparently low-value drug that will yield billions of dollars in profits for its manufacturer may even spur Congress finally to take America's drug-price crisis in hand and find a solution. That could be the silver lining around the cloud of the FDA's action.\nBut it will be a shame that an agency that reigned as a bulwark against unsafe and ineffective drugs since its founding in 1906 had to fall so low to achieve that goal.\nThis story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169575110,"gmtCreate":1623845672030,"gmtModify":1631890002963,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169575110","repostId":"1181966550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169572160,"gmtCreate":1623845648650,"gmtModify":1631890002972,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169572160","repostId":"1179402047","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169576163,"gmtCreate":1623845578852,"gmtModify":1631890002979,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169576163","repostId":"2143768355","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169578899,"gmtCreate":1623845552211,"gmtModify":1631891365929,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169578899","repostId":"1120443371","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169571372,"gmtCreate":1623845501896,"gmtModify":1631891365934,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169571372","repostId":"1109582645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109582645","pubTimestamp":1623808952,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109582645?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109582645","media":"TheStreet","summary":"After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following stron","content":"<p>After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even&nbsp;following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and&nbsp;changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p>\n<p>The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p>\n<p><b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p>\n<p>At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint&nbsp;at the start of the 5G cycle.</p>\n<p>The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p>\n<p>Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p>\n<p><b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p>\n<p>Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after&nbsp;the Cupertino company crushed expectations&nbsp;and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays&nbsp;in the launch of the new device.</p>\n<p>Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p>\n<p>These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p>\n<p><b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p>\n<p>According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p>\n<p>On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p>\n<p>Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p>\n<p>While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 10:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and changed his ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109582645","content_text":"After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.\nThe Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.\niPhone at the center of the bear case\nAt the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:\n\n “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”\n\nTo be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.\nThe plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.\nTherefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.\nFigure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).\nWhen Goldman Sachs fell off the horse\nGoldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.\nApple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.\nThese numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.\nHow Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward\nAccording to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.\nOn the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.\nThe Apple Maven's take\nRod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.\nWhile stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169573892,"gmtCreate":1623845476116,"gmtModify":1631891365937,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Expected","listText":"Expected","text":"Expected","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169573892","repostId":"1191543581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187731997,"gmtCreate":1623764140919,"gmtModify":1631891365939,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fantastic","listText":"Fantastic","text":"Fantastic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187731997","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1631884627596,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金","htmlText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","listText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","text":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ 戳我即可参与活动 \u0001如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。\u0001如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。\u0001 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab28db31a19b458d604a8bf02becddd3","width":"415","height":"125"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5227ebb594fe55b532c840acef147d7b","width":"415","height":"495"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104323352,"gmtCreate":1620357312676,"gmtModify":1631891365942,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go","listText":"Let’s go","text":"Let’s go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104323352","repostId":"1137949521","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104329542,"gmtCreate":1620357282186,"gmtModify":1631891365945,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The only way is up now","listText":"The only way is up now","text":"The only way is up now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104329542","repostId":"1186778449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186778449","pubTimestamp":1620341777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186778449?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow closes at record high after upbeat jobless claims report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186778449","media":"Reuters","summary":"The Dow Jones Industrial Averageclosed at a record high on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat weekly jobless claims report, while shares of vaccine makers dipped after U.S. President Joe Biden backed plans to waive patents on COVID-19 shots.Lifted by $Apple$ Inc, the S&P 500 rose after a Labor Department report showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 498,000 for the week ended May 1, compared with 590,000 in the prior week.$Investors$ were awaiting a mor","content":"<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)closed at a record high on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat weekly jobless claims report, while shares of vaccine makers dipped after U.S. President Joe Biden backed plans to waive patents on COVID-19 shots.</p><p>Lifted by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc(AAPL.O), the S&amp;P 500 rose after a Labor Department report showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 498,000 for the week ended May 1, compared with 590,000 in the prior week.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> were awaiting a more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday for clues on the strength of the labor market and potentially the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy.</p><p>\"Investors are encouraged by the low-interest rates and the stimulus that the government is putting into the economy. We're also seeing substantial increases in economic projections and earnings forecasts,\" said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.</p><p>Pharmaceutical companies dropped after the White House said Biden made the decision to back a proposed waiver for COVID-19 vaccine intellectual property rights.</p><p>Shares in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a> Inc(PFE.N), Moderna Inc(MRNA.O)and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a> Inc(NVAX.O), all involved in the making of COVID-19 vaccines, fell. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00179\">Johnson</a> &amp; Johnson(JNJ.N)was near unchanged.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 healthcare sector index(.SPXHC)slipped, while the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> biotechnology index &lt;.NBI&gt; also dropped.</p><p>Moderna's shares cut some losses after it said countries around the globe would continue buying its COVID-19 vaccine for years even if patents on the shots are waived.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financials index(.SPSY)was among the top performers.</p><p>\"One sector we are seeing a lot of opportunities in is the financial sector. We see it as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> that should benefit from higher interest rates and a stronger economic recovery,\" said Ann Guntli, portfolio manager at Chicago-based RMB Capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp(MSFT.O), Apple(AAPL.O)and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> Incwere up under 1% for most of the session.</p><p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 0.92% to end at 34,545.11 points, while the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 0.82% to 4,201.58.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)climbed 0.37% to 13,632.84.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a> Wholesale(COST.O)jumped after the retailer said late on Wednesday that its April sales surged 33.5%. That rally helped push the S&amp;P 500 consumers staple index higher.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a> Inc(REGN.O)rose after the drugmaker reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit and said it expected demand for its COVID-19 antibody therapy to hold up.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a> Technologies Inc(UBER.N)tumbled after it signaled it would pay drivers more to get cars back on the road as the pandemic recedes, and disclosed a $600 million charge to provide UK drivers with benefits.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123939866\" target=\"_blank\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> gets a bitcoin boost with revenue up 266%</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159007289\" target=\"_blank\">Beyond Meat swings to a loss as grocery sales growth slows</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1170281328\" target=\"_blank\">Roku Q1 Active Account Growth Slows, Revenue Booms 79%</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1131126697\" target=\"_blank\">Peloton Crushes Forecasts But Cuts <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GUID\">Guidance</a> Amid Treadmill Recall</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2133576548\" target=\"_blank\">AMC Chain Posts $567.2 Million Loss as Film Fans Trickle Back</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow closes at record high after upbeat jobless claims report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow closes at record high after upbeat jobless claims report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 06:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/business/dow-closes-record-high-after-upbeat-jobless-claims-report-2021-05-06/><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)closed at a record high on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat weekly jobless claims report, while shares of vaccine makers dipped after U.S. President Joe Biden ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/dow-closes-record-high-after-upbeat-jobless-claims-report-2021-05-06/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc","MSFT":"微软",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","REGN":"再生元制药公司",".DJI":"道琼斯","JNJ":"强生","AAPL":"苹果",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQ":"Block","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","UBER":"优步","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","PFE":"辉瑞","COST":"好市多"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/dow-closes-record-high-after-upbeat-jobless-claims-report-2021-05-06/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186778449","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)closed at a record high on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat weekly jobless claims report, while shares of vaccine makers dipped after U.S. President Joe Biden backed plans to waive patents on COVID-19 shots.Lifted by Apple Inc(AAPL.O), the S&P 500 rose after a Labor Department report showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 498,000 for the week ended May 1, compared with 590,000 in the prior week.Investors were awaiting a more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday for clues on the strength of the labor market and potentially the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy.\"Investors are encouraged by the low-interest rates and the stimulus that the government is putting into the economy. We're also seeing substantial increases in economic projections and earnings forecasts,\" said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.Pharmaceutical companies dropped after the White House said Biden made the decision to back a proposed waiver for COVID-19 vaccine intellectual property rights.Shares in Pfizer Inc(PFE.N), Moderna Inc(MRNA.O)and Novavax Inc(NVAX.O), all involved in the making of COVID-19 vaccines, fell. Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.N)was near unchanged.The S&P 500 healthcare sector index(.SPXHC)slipped, while the Nasdaq biotechnology index <.NBI> also dropped.Moderna's shares cut some losses after it said countries around the globe would continue buying its COVID-19 vaccine for years even if patents on the shots are waived.The S&P 500 financials index(.SPSY)was among the top performers.\"One sector we are seeing a lot of opportunities in is the financial sector. We see it as one that should benefit from higher interest rates and a stronger economic recovery,\" said Ann Guntli, portfolio manager at Chicago-based RMB Capital.Microsoft Corp(MSFT.O), Apple(AAPL.O)and Amazon.com Incwere up under 1% for most of the session.Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 0.92% to end at 34,545.11 points, while the S&P 500(.SPX)gained 0.82% to 4,201.58.The Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)climbed 0.37% to 13,632.84.Costco Wholesale(COST.O)jumped after the retailer said late on Wednesday that its April sales surged 33.5%. That rally helped push the S&P 500 consumers staple index higher.Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc(REGN.O)rose after the drugmaker reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit and said it expected demand for its COVID-19 antibody therapy to hold up.Uber Technologies Inc(UBER.N)tumbled after it signaled it would pay drivers more to get cars back on the road as the pandemic recedes, and disclosed a $600 million charge to provide UK drivers with benefits.Square gets a bitcoin boost with revenue up 266%Beyond Meat swings to a loss as grocery sales growth slowsRoku Q1 Active Account Growth Slows, Revenue Booms 79%Peloton Crushes Forecasts But Cuts Guidance Amid Treadmill RecallAMC Chain Posts $567.2 Million Loss as Film Fans Trickle Back","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345964717,"gmtCreate":1618273365439,"gmtModify":1631891365948,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment?","listText":"Comment?","text":"Comment?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345964717","repostId":"2126060329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126060329","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1618241700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2126060329?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 23:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stocks edge back to kick off earnings week as Powell says U.S. economy at 'inflection point'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126060329","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday at the start of a week that will see the unofficial start o","content":"<p>U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday at the start of a week that will see the unofficial start of first-quarter earnings, headlined by some of the nation's largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$(JPM)$</a> and Goldman Sachs Group<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$(GS)$</a>.</p>\n<p>Market participants were also weighing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke during a \"60 Minutes\" interview that aired on Sunday.</p>\n<p><b>How are stock benchmarks performing?</b></p>\n<p>On Friday , the S&amp;P 500 booked a 2.7% weekly gain, the Dow rose 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite logged a 3.1% weekly rise. The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow booked their third straight weekly gain, while the Nasdaq has climbed for two weeks in a row.</p>\n<p><b>What's driving the market?</b></p>\n<p>On Sunday, Powell said that the economy is going to start growing strongly in the second half of the year, but emphasized that that rebound shouldn't lead anyone to believe that the central bank would dial up interest rates in 2021.</p>\n<p>\"I think it's unlikely that we would raise rates anything like this year,\" Powell said during the \"60 minutes\" interview which was taped at the Fed's headquarters on Wednesday and aired Sunday evening.</p>\n<p>The Fed chief said the economy \"seems to be at an inflection point,\" with strong growth coming \"right now\" and the weakness caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the rearview mirror.</p>\n<p>Powell's comments come as Wall Street is positioning for the start of first-quarter corporate results, which could offer further clues about whether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the market's biggest fears is coming to fruition: a too-hot economy and surge in inflation that compels policy makers to substantially raise rates and dial back accommodative policies sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>So far, Fed officials have said they expect a rise in inflation to be transitory and have repeatedly stated that they would be focused on ensuring that the labor market makes a full recovery before considering easing policy.</p>\n<p>As earnings season kicks off, \"I'm waiting to see how the market reacts,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist for Truist Advisory Services. \"A lot has been priced in and the market is looking for earnings to confirm that that's the correct move. The hurdle rate for positive surprises has moved up.\"</p>\n<p>Lerner thinks the Fed will remain \"supportive\" and even if bond yields rise, the market should absorb the next leg higher as long as it isn't too steep.</p>\n<p>\"We've had a very gradual, but steady, low-volatility move to new highs,\" Lerner said in an interview. \"I still think the primary market trend is higher, but as we head into earnings, I suspect we start trading a little more rangebound. When the primary trend is higher, you don't want to worry about the hiccups.\"</p>\n<p>Some strategists fear, however, that stock valuations remain elevated despite uncertainties that include inflation and the tax regime.</p>\n<p>Stocks mostly ended at records last week and the Nasdaq Composite, after falling into correction in March --defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak--stands less than 2% from its Feb. 12 all-time closing high. Gains for equity benchmarks have come despite concerns about out-of-control inflation and the possibility that President Joe Biden will raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% to help fund his $2.4 trillion infrastructure proposal.</p>\n<p>\"The investment community is too upbeat in our opinion, not showing any concern for plausible tax increases being proposed by the Biden administration,\" wrote Citigroup research analysts, Tobias Levkovich, Lorraine Schmitt and Jennifer Stahmer, in a research note dated April 7.</p>\n<p>\"Indeed, all developments are perceived as positive news. Yet, such <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-sided views are not usually a good starting point,\" the Citi researchers wrote.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Germany was preparing new COVID-inspired legislation which would enable the eurozone's largest economy to impose national restrictions without regional government approval. England, meanwhile, reopened pubs for outdoor drinking, and hairdressers.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks edge back to kick off earnings week as Powell says U.S. economy at 'inflection point'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks edge back to kick off earnings week as Powell says U.S. economy at 'inflection point'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-12 23:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday at the start of a week that will see the unofficial start of first-quarter earnings, headlined by some of the nation's largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$(JPM)$</a> and Goldman Sachs Group<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$(GS)$</a>.</p>\n<p>Market participants were also weighing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke during a \"60 Minutes\" interview that aired on Sunday.</p>\n<p><b>How are stock benchmarks performing?</b></p>\n<p>On Friday , the S&amp;P 500 booked a 2.7% weekly gain, the Dow rose 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite logged a 3.1% weekly rise. The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow booked their third straight weekly gain, while the Nasdaq has climbed for two weeks in a row.</p>\n<p><b>What's driving the market?</b></p>\n<p>On Sunday, Powell said that the economy is going to start growing strongly in the second half of the year, but emphasized that that rebound shouldn't lead anyone to believe that the central bank would dial up interest rates in 2021.</p>\n<p>\"I think it's unlikely that we would raise rates anything like this year,\" Powell said during the \"60 minutes\" interview which was taped at the Fed's headquarters on Wednesday and aired Sunday evening.</p>\n<p>The Fed chief said the economy \"seems to be at an inflection point,\" with strong growth coming \"right now\" and the weakness caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the rearview mirror.</p>\n<p>Powell's comments come as Wall Street is positioning for the start of first-quarter corporate results, which could offer further clues about whether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the market's biggest fears is coming to fruition: a too-hot economy and surge in inflation that compels policy makers to substantially raise rates and dial back accommodative policies sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>So far, Fed officials have said they expect a rise in inflation to be transitory and have repeatedly stated that they would be focused on ensuring that the labor market makes a full recovery before considering easing policy.</p>\n<p>As earnings season kicks off, \"I'm waiting to see how the market reacts,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist for Truist Advisory Services. \"A lot has been priced in and the market is looking for earnings to confirm that that's the correct move. The hurdle rate for positive surprises has moved up.\"</p>\n<p>Lerner thinks the Fed will remain \"supportive\" and even if bond yields rise, the market should absorb the next leg higher as long as it isn't too steep.</p>\n<p>\"We've had a very gradual, but steady, low-volatility move to new highs,\" Lerner said in an interview. \"I still think the primary market trend is higher, but as we head into earnings, I suspect we start trading a little more rangebound. When the primary trend is higher, you don't want to worry about the hiccups.\"</p>\n<p>Some strategists fear, however, that stock valuations remain elevated despite uncertainties that include inflation and the tax regime.</p>\n<p>Stocks mostly ended at records last week and the Nasdaq Composite, after falling into correction in March --defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak--stands less than 2% from its Feb. 12 all-time closing high. Gains for equity benchmarks have come despite concerns about out-of-control inflation and the possibility that President Joe Biden will raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% to help fund his $2.4 trillion infrastructure proposal.</p>\n<p>\"The investment community is too upbeat in our opinion, not showing any concern for plausible tax increases being proposed by the Biden administration,\" wrote Citigroup research analysts, Tobias Levkovich, Lorraine Schmitt and Jennifer Stahmer, in a research note dated April 7.</p>\n<p>\"Indeed, all developments are perceived as positive news. Yet, such <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-sided views are not usually a good starting point,\" the Citi researchers wrote.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Germany was preparing new COVID-inspired legislation which would enable the eurozone's largest economy to impose national restrictions without regional government approval. England, meanwhile, reopened pubs for outdoor drinking, and hairdressers.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"POWL":"Powell Industries"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126060329","content_text":"U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday at the start of a week that will see the unofficial start of first-quarter earnings, headlined by some of the nation's largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. $(JPM)$ and Goldman Sachs Group$(GS)$.\nMarket participants were also weighing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke during a \"60 Minutes\" interview that aired on Sunday.\nHow are stock benchmarks performing?\nOn Friday , the S&P 500 booked a 2.7% weekly gain, the Dow rose 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite logged a 3.1% weekly rise. The S&P 500 and the Dow booked their third straight weekly gain, while the Nasdaq has climbed for two weeks in a row.\nWhat's driving the market?\nOn Sunday, Powell said that the economy is going to start growing strongly in the second half of the year, but emphasized that that rebound shouldn't lead anyone to believe that the central bank would dial up interest rates in 2021.\n\"I think it's unlikely that we would raise rates anything like this year,\" Powell said during the \"60 minutes\" interview which was taped at the Fed's headquarters on Wednesday and aired Sunday evening.\nThe Fed chief said the economy \"seems to be at an inflection point,\" with strong growth coming \"right now\" and the weakness caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the rearview mirror.\nPowell's comments come as Wall Street is positioning for the start of first-quarter corporate results, which could offer further clues about whether one of the market's biggest fears is coming to fruition: a too-hot economy and surge in inflation that compels policy makers to substantially raise rates and dial back accommodative policies sooner than expected.\nSo far, Fed officials have said they expect a rise in inflation to be transitory and have repeatedly stated that they would be focused on ensuring that the labor market makes a full recovery before considering easing policy.\nAs earnings season kicks off, \"I'm waiting to see how the market reacts,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist for Truist Advisory Services. \"A lot has been priced in and the market is looking for earnings to confirm that that's the correct move. The hurdle rate for positive surprises has moved up.\"\nLerner thinks the Fed will remain \"supportive\" and even if bond yields rise, the market should absorb the next leg higher as long as it isn't too steep.\n\"We've had a very gradual, but steady, low-volatility move to new highs,\" Lerner said in an interview. \"I still think the primary market trend is higher, but as we head into earnings, I suspect we start trading a little more rangebound. When the primary trend is higher, you don't want to worry about the hiccups.\"\nSome strategists fear, however, that stock valuations remain elevated despite uncertainties that include inflation and the tax regime.\nStocks mostly ended at records last week and the Nasdaq Composite, after falling into correction in March --defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak--stands less than 2% from its Feb. 12 all-time closing high. Gains for equity benchmarks have come despite concerns about out-of-control inflation and the possibility that President Joe Biden will raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% to help fund his $2.4 trillion infrastructure proposal.\n\"The investment community is too upbeat in our opinion, not showing any concern for plausible tax increases being proposed by the Biden administration,\" wrote Citigroup research analysts, Tobias Levkovich, Lorraine Schmitt and Jennifer Stahmer, in a research note dated April 7.\n\"Indeed, all developments are perceived as positive news. Yet, such one-sided views are not usually a good starting point,\" the Citi researchers wrote.\nMeanwhile, Germany was preparing new COVID-inspired legislation which would enable the eurozone's largest economy to impose national restrictions without regional government approval. England, meanwhile, reopened pubs for outdoor drinking, and hairdressers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345934604,"gmtCreate":1618271717208,"gmtModify":1631891365951,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Naise","listText":"Naise","text":"Naise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345934604","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194635432","pubTimestamp":1618236146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194635432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194635432","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.</li><li>With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.</li><li>Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.</li><li>Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.</li></ul><p>I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?</p><p>At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory Landscape</b></p><p>The US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.</p><p>Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings</p><p>Coin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.</p><p>Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at &gt;20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.</p><p>SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)</p><p>In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.</p><p>XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.</p><p>Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.</p><p>Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf68da62452a794c5daaa60ac989840\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCap</p><p><b>Other Regulatory Risks</b></p><p>Regulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.</p><p>Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.</p><p>Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All Market</b></p><p>There are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.</p><p>Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.</p><p>On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.</p><p>In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).</p><p>Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.</p><p>In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ca6dafd2b567bd920c5e9f8edc8fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>The tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.</p><p>Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8396c363230e04130e43f63d653956\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2327ad800bd3524a3aaa57e3a0b17f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 5:Coinbase's Historical Valuations<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1fd86395ee1b0e38f1f6fd472f84bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Verdict</b></p><p>In my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.</p><p>The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194635432","content_text":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Source:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsSource:BusinessofAppsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382705269,"gmtCreate":1613481168151,"gmtModify":1631891365953,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382705269","repostId":"1108705396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108705396","pubTimestamp":1613469786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108705396?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 18:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108705396","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a doubl","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington&nbsp;and millions of families were about to&nbsp;lose crucial benefits.</p>\n<p>Fast forward two months, and the&nbsp;economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p>\n<p>Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p>\n<p>The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the&nbsp;health crisis is easing&nbsp;and Uncle Sam is&nbsp;coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p>\n<p>After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p>\n<p>\"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p>\n<p>The turning point happened last month&nbsp;when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p>\n<p><b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p>\n<p>Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a&nbsp;forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p>\n<p>\"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p>\n<p>Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p>\n<p>Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p>\n<p>\"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p>\n<p>Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p>\n<p>The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p>\n<p>The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p>\n<p>For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p>\n<p>At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p>\n<p>\"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p>\n<p>Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States&nbsp;added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p>\n<p>Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p>\n<p><b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p>\n<p>But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p>\n<p>Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p>\n<p>And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday&nbsp;that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p>\n<p>All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p>\n<p>That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants&nbsp;force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p>\n<p><b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p>\n<p>\"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p>\n<p>Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p>\n<p>Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p>\n<p>\"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p>\n<p>However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p>\n<p>\"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p>\n<p><b>'Bring it on'</b></p>\n<p>Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington&nbsp;overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p>\n<p>\"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p>\n<p>And that in turn would spook the&nbsp;red-hot stock market.</p>\n<p>Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p>\n<p>Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p>\n<p>Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p>\n<p>\"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 18:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html><strong>CNN Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108705396","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and millions of families were about to lose crucial benefits.\nFast forward two months, and the economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.\nEconomists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.\nThe renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the health crisis is easing and Uncle Sam is coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.\nAfter supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.\n\"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.\nThe turning point happened last month when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.\n'Summer mini-boom'\nBefore the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\n\"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.\nOxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.\nLikewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"\n\"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.\nIndeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.\nThe rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.\nDouble-dip recession averted\nThe Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.\nFor months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.\nAt the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.\n\"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.\nSlammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States added just 49,000 jobs in January.\nJobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.\nVaccines to the rescue\nBut there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.\nCritically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.\nAnd Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.\nAll of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.\nThat's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.\nLow-wage workers are still hurting badly\nAgainst this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.\n\"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"\nDoing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.\nEmployment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.\n\"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.\nHowever, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.\n\"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.\n'Bring it on'\nSome economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington overheats the economy by injecting too much support.\n\"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.\nAnd that in turn would spook the red-hot stock market.\nFed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.\nCiting \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.\nZandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.\n\"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386049562,"gmtCreate":1613120183556,"gmtModify":1631891365955,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386049562","repostId":"1113849351","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113849351","pubTimestamp":1612948278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113849351?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-10 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113849351","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through finan","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.</li>\n <li>The bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a structurally unprofitable car company.</li>\n <li>Even assuming flawless execution from here, Tesla shares face over 90% downside.</li>\n <li>This extreme downside risk makes Tesla an excellent candidate for hedging against today's mania.</li>\n <li>I detail an options trade on Tesla designed to hedge against a broader bear market.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If you had any doubts before, thememe stock frenzyof the last few weeks should make one thing abundantly clear...</p>\n<p>Yes, it's a mania.</p>\n<p>In late December, I wrote about thespeculative excessesbubbling up in the financial markets. Things have only accelerated so far this year, with coordinated short squeezes sending the stocks of distressed businesses like GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) into the stratosphere,new record highs in margin debt,or my personal favorite - the relentless buying spree in speculative options among retail traders:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed1ad33fcdca94e8598947008f34056\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Of course, no one knows when this ends... but we all know how it ends. The recent U-turn in meme stocks thatwiped out $167 billion in a matter of daysis a preview for what awaits the broader financial markets. That's why it's never been more important to have a plan in place for hedging the downside. Some investors prefer cash or government bonds - both fine options. But for those willing to get a little more exotic, buying put options on overvalued stocks provides another alternative.</p>\n<p>First, we must identify a company with enough downside to make the bet worthwhile. And for my money, no better stock meets that criteria than electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA). From 2014 through mid-2019, Tesla shares traded in a range between $30 - $80 (split-adjusted). Then, starting in the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla shares entered ludicrous mode - rallying 1,700% from $50 to a recent price of around $850.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b909a9b8f4b39d30a319177076aeab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In today's article, I'll show that virtually nothing changed in Tesla's core business to justify this 17-fold increase in value since Q4 2019. I'll then make the case for why Tesla shares risk revisiting $50, even assuming an aggressive bull case in its future earnings trajectory.</p>\n<p>Given this 95% downside risk in Tesla's share price today, it makes for an excellent candidate to hedge a portfolio against the inevitable unwinding of today's mania. I'll detail a basic put option trade with more than 1,000% upside should this risk materialize going forward.</p>\n<p>Let's begin by first addressing the core thesis bulls use to justify Tesla's stratospheric valuation...</p>\n<p><b>Tesla, More than a Car Company?</b></p>\n<p>There's one simple reason why Tesla bulls need the stock narrative to reflect more just a car company: your average car company trades for less than 0.5x sales. Even Toyota, the world's most profitable mass market automaker, trades at just 0.7x sales. And then, there's Tesla...</p>\n<p>Based on a fully diluted 1.2 billion share count, Tesla currently commands a $1 trillion valuation at $850 per share. This valuation reflects a more than 30x sales multiple, or more expensive that many of the most dominant, and most profitable tech companies on the planet. The bulls argue that this valuation is justified, because Tesla is, in fact, a tech company. Why? Here's one explanation fromCleanTechnica:</p>\n<blockquote>\n What Makes Tesla a Tech Company?Tesla is creating software, a lot of software. Software is at the essence of Tesla’s unique infotainment system, user experience, and autonomous-driving features. Tesla has implemented over-the-air updates for years, while other automakers are just about to try this.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Of course, no one will deny that Tesla vehicles contain a lot of cool software and other technology (just like every other modern-day automobile). There's just one problem: each piece of software Tesla sells has a car attached to it. Examining Tesla's financials reveals no standalone software segment. In fact, 94% of Tesla’s revenue last year came from automotive sales, leasing and service. That, dear readers, makes it a car company:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d1d7eb8b41fba5e2fbeb67c89ec10f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>I'll save the analysis of Tesla's energy business for future articles, except to note that this battery/solar segment suffers even lower margins than Tesla's unprofitable car business. Back to the original point...</p>\n<p>The narrative of Tesla as a \"tech company\" is exactly that - an empty narrative, divorced from financial reality. Tesla is only a tech company in the same way that Toyota or Volkswagen are - they all produce vehicles that contain software and other advanced \"technology\". But this alone doesn’t magically transform the economics of manufacturing automobiles.</p>\n<p>And the truth is, the car business suffers from pretty dismal economics, especially compared with the software business. Perhaps more than any other single factor, it's this basic financial reality that explains why Tesla shares face 95% downside risk, even assuming perfect execution going forward. So let's explore this point in greater detail, by comparing the economics of making cars versus making software...</p>\n<p><b>Software vs Autos: A Tale of Two Industries</b></p>\n<p>The reason why dominant software companies trade at rich valuation multiples of 10-20x sales has nothing to do with so-called \"disruption\" or even innovation. Instead, it's all about the basic business fundamentals of margins, capital requirements and competitive dynamics. Let's consider the case of Microsoft, focusing on the simplified example of its Office software product (ignoring the growing cloud business and other segments for simplicity).</p>\n<p>For starters, a software product like Microsoft Office enjoys tremendous margins. After the upfront investment of developing the software code, the incremental costs of selling each additional unit are miniscule - especially in today's world of downloadable software. Compare this with producing an automobile, which comes with massive variable costs - including both input materials and labor. This critical difference in unit economics explains why software companies like Microsoft earn 30 - 40% net margins versus carmakers like Tesla that suffer from razor thin, single-digit profitability:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c083675b47070a5e8bd130702a838e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Next, let's talk competition. Given the fat margins in a product like Microsoft Office, why has no competitor emerged to steal away any meaningful market share in the last 25 years? After all, we're not exactly talking rocket science to replicate the basic Office software code. The answer is all about network effects and switching costs. The world already runs on Office products, like Excel. So if you want to share your spreadsheets with the outside world, for example, you have no choice but to use Excel. Meanwhile, who wants the hassle of learning a new spreadsheet interface, and for what upside? To save maybe $20 per year?</p>\n<p>In short, Microsoft's profitability has nothing to do with narratives like innovation or disruption. It's all about excellent unit economics combined with a virtually impenetrable moat insulating the business against competitors. This moat means Microsoft doesn't need to constantly invest money reinventing the wheel - it merely needs to maintain the status quo functionality of the Office product. So instead of diverting a big chunk of profits back into new product development, those profits instead flow back to shareholders.</p>\n<p>The mass market car business operates on the exact opposite dynamics, where consumers constantly shop around for the latest vehicle features and designs, delivered at the lowest cost. There are no meaningful competitive moats that prevent consumers from switching brands, or from competitors replicating the latest vehicle designs and technology. That's why, instead of the monopoly-like powers enjoyed by the big tech companies, the car business trends towards commoditization over time. We see evidence of this in the brutally low margins, and in the fact that no single car company owns more than 15% of global market share.</p>\n<p>Many of the bulls mistakenly view Tesla's \"first mover\" status in the EV market as some kind of fundamental competitive advantage, but that ignores the basic competitive dynamics of the car business. First mover advantage doesn't really exist in the commoditized world of auto manufacturing, and Tesla is already providing a perfect case study for those who car to look. In the world's largest EV market - Europe - Tesla's market share has collapsed from undisputed leader as recently as 2019 to third place today, thanks to a flood of new EV competition from legacy auto makers:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c2ce6fbcf99c716e30ea76507893618\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As the world's largest and most competitive EV market, Europe is a bellwether for the future competitive pressures Tesla will face in the U.S. and China. The success of the recently launchedFord Mustang Mach-Eshows that legacy automakers can and will produce compelling EVs on par with, or perhaps even better than Tesla's current offerings. The growing competition is showing up in another key metric:Tesla's relentless price cutsacross all vehicle models, including a$3,000 cut in the Model Y priceonly a few months after initial production.</p>\n<p>Clearly, Tesla does not enjoy any meaningful competitive moat, or else it wouldn't be surrendering market share and slashing prices across the board. That means Tesla will need to constantly invest huge sums of money just to keep its head above water earning razor thin margins, as it fights for market share in what is already becoming a highly commoditized EV industry.</p>\n<p>So to summarize...</p>\n<p><b>Tesla: It's a Car Company</b></p>\n<p>Despite the bullish narrative about the tremendous \"technology\" Tesla produces, the objective reality in the financial statements shows that Tesla is a car company which happens to produce software. It doesn't enjoy any of the economic benefits that a pure play software producer, like Microsoft enjoys - things like excellent unit economics and a monopoly-like competitive position.</p>\n<p>The reason companies like Microsoft command valuation premiums of 10x sales or more, is simply because of the high returns on invested capital the business generates. Conversely, even the most profitable car company on the planet - Toyota - trades at less than 1x sales. That's simply a reflection of the brutal economics of high operating costs and intense competitive pressures, which translate into fundamentally low returns on capital. Tesla is not immune from this basic economic reality. If you strip away the hype and just examine the numbers, Tesla looks exactly like your average car company:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05782c8583b26edd51aeb769b32ced1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>But here's the thing - Tesla actually suffers far worse unit economics than your average car company. The chart above reflects the financials of a one-time outlier year of profitability. Before 2020, Tesla lost money in every year of its existence:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07426fdf2d4f750a787924e8bc48775f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's 2020 financial results led many bulls to believe the company had finally turned the corner towards sustained profitability. But here again, the objective reality in the financials tell a different story.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla Still Loses Money Making Cars</b></p>\n<p>The truth is, Tesla lost money making cars in 2020 - just like every other year in its existence. Tesla only managed to manufacture a one-time profit thanks to a bonanza in government-mandated wealth transfers from the very legacy automakers Tesla seeks to \"disrupt\". Let me explain...</p>\n<p>Governments around the globe have established regulations designed to move the auto industry away from the internal combustion engine (ICE) towards zero emission vehicles. These regulations establish a maximum emissions threshold associated with ICE vehicle sales. So companies that sell too many ICE vehicles incur fines if they exceed the emission threshold. Conversely, companies that produce zero emission vehicles - like Tesla - earn regulatory credits, which they can then sell to other manufacturers to offset the emission tallies from ICE vehicle sales.</p>\n<p>The key point here is that Tesla incurs virtually zero costs when selling these regulatory credits. This 100% pure profit margin revenue provides a major boost to Tesla's otherwise dismal financials. Last year, Tesla earned a whopping $1.6 billion in regulatory credits, up more than 150% from the $600 million earned in 2019. Now here's the thing - Tesla only grew its vehicle sales by less than 40% last year. So how do we explain the pace of emission credits massively outpacing its vehicle sales growth?</p>\n<p>One potential answer lies in Tesla's mushrooming accounts receivables balance, which grew by about half a billion dollars last year. In Tesla's10Q filing from Q3 2020, the company describes a large transaction involving regulatory credit sales that contributed to its account receivables balance:</p>\n<blockquote>\n As of September 30, 2020, one entity represented 10% or more of our total accounts receivable balance, which was related to sales of regulatory credits. As of December 31, 2019, no entity represented 10% of our total accounts receivable balance.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Unfortunately, Tesla provides few additional details explaining what's going on with the accounts receivable balance - a subjectDavid Einhorn has publicly questioned Elon Musk about. But if I were to speculate, it looks like Tesla pulled forward a substantial sum of regulatory credit sales associated with future vehicle sales into the 2020 fiscal year, allowing it to print a one-time profit of $721 million. But if we take away these credit sales (including backing out the estimated taxes paid), Tesla's \"profit\" in 2020 transforms into a $568 million loss:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac66da8f996eb6f7089a2c90e7dda12c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\"><span>(Source: Author, using Tesla filings)</span></p>\n<p>In other words, Tesla's core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable. 2020 was not a turning point, but merely an outlier driven by a $1.6 billion bonanza in regulatory emission credits. And the language in its SEC filings indicate that at least some portion of these regulatory credit sales were pulled forward from future years and booked into the accounts receivable balance.</p>\n<p>In any event, the bottom line is clear: instead of disrupting the legacy automakers, in my view Tesla essentially relies on wealth transfers from its profitable competitors to offset the endless red ink flowing from its own manufacturing operations. Of course, the bulls might argue that it doesn't where the money comes from - profit is profit, right? But here's the problem - Tesla's corporate welfare gravy train will soon hit a brick wall, with nearly every major automaker introducingdozens of new EV modelsthis year and next. And that's just the start. By 2025, hundreds of billions of dollars will have been deployed into new EV models by legacy automakers:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05cf0587c2addcd549edab52ba39f82f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The coming tsunami of new EVs offerings means regulatory emission credit supply will soar and demand will plunge, and thus killing their value. Within a few short years, Tesla will no longer be able to paper over the losses from its core business with regulatory credit sales. That's not just my opinion - Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn confirmed the temporary nature of Tesla's credit sales during the company'sQ2 2020 earnings call:</p>\n<blockquote>\n ...we don't manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute in a significant way to the future... eventually, the stream of regulatory credits will reduce.\n</blockquote>\n<p>That means no, not all profit is created equal. An ongoing profit stream from a viable business deserves a valuation multiple. Conversely, a temporary profit stream should be looked through when assessing the long-term value of a business. Since Tesla investors can not count on regulatory credits continuing beyond the next few years, it only makes sense to strip out their impact from the income statement. When you do that, you see that virtually nothing to justify Tesla's manic share price rally in 2020 - the core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35bc24f3b93c083529b291bfa499d17c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, it's not just the rearview financials in the core business that remain unchanged.Jim Chanos recently notedhow the forward analyst estimates for Tesla's 2022 - 2023 earnings are the same as in mid-2019, back when shares traded for $50:</p>\n<blockquote>\n That kind of tells you a little bit about what's happened in the marketplace in that valuations have just gone parabolic for basically a company that's still, in the eyes of analysts, earning at or below where they thought it would be earning two years ago. That's kind of incredible.\n</blockquote>\n<p>So if neither the trailing business fundamentals nor the forward earnings outlook changed, that leaves only one variable left to explain what sent Tesla shares from $50 to $850: investor psychology. More specifically, manic psychology, fueling a mad scramble for unprofitable companies across the board:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ddc266e80382c1f5544c7bf8e51828\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Thus, Tesla's parabolic price appreciation is merely one of the countless cases of speculative excess playing out across the financial markets. Make no mistake, the coming unwind of this excess is a question of when, not if. When that day comes, the fallout will likely spread throughout financial markets, taking down the innocent bystanders as collateral damage. That's why I'm betting against Tesla as a hedge against this coming unwind. And the reason Tesla makes such a compelling candidate for a price re-rating is, well... how many other trillion dollar companies do you know of that don't make money in their core business?</p>\n<p>Take away the regulatory profit stream - which will start happening this year - and there's no reason why Tesla should trade for anything above the net cash on the balance sheet - which currently sits at around $7 billion, or about $6 per share on a fully diluted basis. Meanwhile, what's the upside case in the scenario where Tesla transforms itself into a profitable car company? Let's briefly consider that scenario...</p>\n<p>Tesla Shares Face 90% Downside, Even with Perfect Execution</p>\n<p>Let's suspend disbelief for a moment and give Tesla full credit for flawless execution on both top line growth and bottom line profitability going forward. For the top line growth assumption, let's simply use the forecast fromTesla's most recent earnings release, where the company guided for 50% annual growth rate in vehicle deliveries going forward. Before moving on, I'll simply note that this projection seems wildly optimistic given Tesla's depleted product pipeline. Both the Tesla Semi and Roadster have missed their original production deadlines by over a year, with no clear timeline yet on when production will begin. Meanwhile, the CyberTruck - Tesla's only mass market vehicle in the pipeline -also appears delayeduntil sometime between 2022 - 2023.</p>\n<p>But even if we give Tesla full credit for this growth, one thing is clear - it will require massive capital investment. That means significant future equity issuance. Meanwhile, Tesla pays a significant portion of its employee salary expense via stock compensation, including Elon Musk's record shattering$56 billion stock bonus plan(saving the planet ain't cheap, apparently). The bottom line: equity dilution is a real issue for Tesla shareholders. Over the last five years, Tesla shareholders have suffered more than 50% dilution. Given the healthy cash pile currently on the balance sheet, let's conservatively assume the dilution rate slows to 5% annually going forward, starting from today's 1.2 billion fully diluted share count.</p>\n<p>Next, let's talk earnings. Remember, this is our aggressive bull case... so let's hold nothing back. We'll assume that Tesla transforms from a structurally unprofitable automaker into one of the most profitable car companies on the planet - matching the 6% net margins earned by Toyota, the mass market industry leader in profitability.</p>\n<p>Finally, let's give Tesla a best-in-class 25x earnings multiple. That's a more than 300% valuation premium over the industry average of roughly 8x earnings, and more than twice the earnings multiple on Toyota. Putting it all together, the table below shows the key assumptions and annual price targets out to 2025:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381ad84108e848b2bfe8fc2001b57800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In other words...</p>\n<p><i><b>Tesla shares face more than 90% downside risk through 2022, even in the aggressive bull case scenario.</b></i></p>\n<p>In future articles, I'll dive deeper into the weeds to show why there's very little chance of Tesla achieving anything close to the targets outlined above. For now, the key takeaway is that even these fantasy fundamentals barely justify a $50 price target.</p>\n<p>Before wrapping up this analysis and moving on to the trade idea, let me address the final key talking point bulls use to justify Tesla's trillion dollar valuation...</p>\n<p>What About the Robotaxis?</p>\n<p>Starting in late 2016,Elon Musk has promisedthe imminent release of Level 5 full self driving capability in all Tesla vehicles. The promise all along has been that, every Tesla rolling off the assembly line contained the necessary hardware for full self driving, and it was only a matter of developing the software to achieve Level 5 autonomy.</p>\n<p>As a brief bit of background, Level 5 is the highest of6 SAE-defined levels of vehicle autonomy(ranging from 0 to 5). A level 5 vehicle can fully navigate through all environments with zero human supervision. Over the last several years, Musk has made a series of autonomy promises to both consumers and investors which have so far failed to materialize. This includes a2019 capital raise, during which Musk promised a future \"robotaxi\" network that would include a million autonomous Tesla's on the road by 2020. Musk has even claimed that Tesla owners could lend their vehicles out to this future robotaxi network andearn as much as $30,000 per year.</p>\n<p>Those were the promises, but here's the reality... more than four years after making the original promise, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 autonomy. As described in the graphic below, Level 2 autonomy is nothing more than a basic driver assistance feature, which many other automakers currently offer:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a572a2cdf3f9b0161fb7fef5abce9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source (notations by author)</span></p>\n<p>Despite the endless string of autonomy promises that have gone unfulfilled for more than four years, Musk remains undeterred in continuing to make aggressive projections to investors. On the company's latest earnings, Musk talked up a forecast of $50 billion in future earnings from the non-existent robotaxi network,as CNBC reports:</p>\n<blockquote>\n On the company’s earnings call on Wednesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the valuation makes sense if you assume that billions of dollars worth of cars become robotaxis.He said $50 billion in car sales could produce another $50 billion in “incremental profit” with software margins.\n</blockquote>\n<p>In other words - ignore the broken autonomy promises over the last four years, and just assume this non-existent robotaxi network will become one of the world's most profitable businesses in the future. I'll save the full autonomy analysis for the future, except to say - if you buy into this projection, then sure, a trillion dollar valuation for Tesla stock can make sense. I'll happily take the other side of that bet.</p>\n<p>And without a miracle windfall from robotaxis, there's nothing to stop Mr. Market from repricing Tesla as the unprofitable automaker that it is when today's mania unravels. Which brings us to the final point of this article - the Tesla options trade I'm using to hedge against the unraveling of speculative excess in today's market.</p>\n<p><b>A Tesla Hedging Trade with Over 10x Upside</b></p>\n<p>The full discussion of put option mechanics goes beyond the scope of today's article, but for a high level overview, think of put options as the stock market's version of an insurance policy. Just like your monthly car insurance premiums, most put options expire worthless... but during a crash, they can pay off in a big way.</p>\n<p>Put options achieve this pay off structure by providing short exposure to 100 shares of an underlying stock at the option strike price, up until the expiration date. You pay a premium for the privilege of gaining this short exposure, in the form of the upfront price of the option contract. The reason most options expire worthless is because the stock price must move far enough below the strike price to offset the cost of the option, within a limited time frame (i.e. before the expiration date).</p>\n<p>And that brings us to the two key elements of selecting a put option: a target price and a time frame. I just explained the fundamental case for a downside target of $50 in Tesla shares. And from a technical perspective, Tesla based at around $50 in the fourth quarter of 2019 before launching into a parabolic melt-up. The history of parabolic advances says that, when they end, the stock price often revisits the launch pad - which would bring Tesla back to around $50. Meanwhile, in order to give this trade plenty of time, I'm looking out to January 2022 as a rough time frame.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ca705542b208fa6c8afca0795f80259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So this time frame gives a straight forward decision on the option expiration date of January 21, 2022. Meanwhile, in order to give the position plenty of room to be wrong and still pay off, I'll select a strike price of $300. There's a delicate balance when selecting strike prices - a lower strike would provide a higher return, but also come with a lower probability of pay off. As I'll show below, selecting a $300 strike price still provides the chance of earning a decent return even if my $50 downside target proves too aggressive.</p>\n<p>But before considering the return potential, we have to know the price of the option. At the close of trading on Monday, the $300 strike Tesla put option expiring on January 21, 2022 traded for around $15.75, as shown below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18b6b326a4fadbe5a0dae10c0355ac6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"38\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Given the 100-share multiplier, the $15.75 quoted price translates into a total cost of $1,575 (plus fees/commissions). With this information, we can determine the return potential of the option for a range of scenarios. In the case where Tesla closes at or above $300 by the expiration date, the option expires worthless, resulting in a 100% loss. Alternatively, if Tesla closes below $300, then the option gains $100 in value for every $1 below the $300 strike price. The table below summarizes this range of scenarios:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33d0ec6d30e3088aad23b0bf644728ab\" tg-width=\"453\" tg-height=\"244\"><span>(Note: for simplicity, I assume the option is held until just before the expiration date, and then closed out without exercising the contract).</span></p>\n<p>So in the downside scenario outlined earlier, where Tesla trades down to $50 by the January 2022 expiration date, the option value grows from $1,650 to $25,000 - for a gain of about 1,400%. However, even if this downside target proves too aggressive, there's still scope to make a reasonable return. If shares only fall to, say $200, the option still returns roughly 500%.</p>\n<p>As you can see, it only take a small allocation within an overall portfolio to gain substantial hedging exposure with a trade like this. Of course, recency bias might make $50 or even $200 per share seem outlandish for a stock trading near $850 today. But let's not forget that Tesla was within“single digit weeks” of bankruptcyas recently as 2018. And in May of 2019, topTesla analyst Adam Jonasdescribed the company as “a distressed credit and restructuring story”, with a $10 downside price target (or $2 pre-split).</p>\n<p>The core business remains virtually unchanged from 2018 and 2019 - when terms like \"bankruptcy\" and \"restructuring\" were on the table. The only key difference is that Tesla now enjoys a positive net cash balance, which takes an immediate bankruptcy scenario off the table. But with less than $10 per share in net cash, this should provide little consolation for the bulls as a valuation floor.</p>\n<p>All that really needs to happen is for Tesla to continue on its current path of losing money in its core business, and catastrophic downside is in store for the stock. And that's not just my opinion - Elon Musk himself fully recognizes this risk, as he noted in a recentemail to employees:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer!\n</blockquote>\n<p>Going forward, my money's on the sledgehammer, not the soufflé.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.\nThe bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1113849351","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.\nThe bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a structurally unprofitable car company.\nEven assuming flawless execution from here, Tesla shares face over 90% downside.\nThis extreme downside risk makes Tesla an excellent candidate for hedging against today's mania.\nI detail an options trade on Tesla designed to hedge against a broader bear market.\n\nIf you had any doubts before, thememe stock frenzyof the last few weeks should make one thing abundantly clear...\nYes, it's a mania.\nIn late December, I wrote about thespeculative excessesbubbling up in the financial markets. Things have only accelerated so far this year, with coordinated short squeezes sending the stocks of distressed businesses like GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) into the stratosphere,new record highs in margin debt,or my personal favorite - the relentless buying spree in speculative options among retail traders:\n\nOf course, no one knows when this ends... but we all know how it ends. The recent U-turn in meme stocks thatwiped out $167 billion in a matter of daysis a preview for what awaits the broader financial markets. That's why it's never been more important to have a plan in place for hedging the downside. Some investors prefer cash or government bonds - both fine options. But for those willing to get a little more exotic, buying put options on overvalued stocks provides another alternative.\nFirst, we must identify a company with enough downside to make the bet worthwhile. And for my money, no better stock meets that criteria than electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA). From 2014 through mid-2019, Tesla shares traded in a range between $30 - $80 (split-adjusted). Then, starting in the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla shares entered ludicrous mode - rallying 1,700% from $50 to a recent price of around $850.\n\nIn today's article, I'll show that virtually nothing changed in Tesla's core business to justify this 17-fold increase in value since Q4 2019. I'll then make the case for why Tesla shares risk revisiting $50, even assuming an aggressive bull case in its future earnings trajectory.\nGiven this 95% downside risk in Tesla's share price today, it makes for an excellent candidate to hedge a portfolio against the inevitable unwinding of today's mania. I'll detail a basic put option trade with more than 1,000% upside should this risk materialize going forward.\nLet's begin by first addressing the core thesis bulls use to justify Tesla's stratospheric valuation...\nTesla, More than a Car Company?\nThere's one simple reason why Tesla bulls need the stock narrative to reflect more just a car company: your average car company trades for less than 0.5x sales. Even Toyota, the world's most profitable mass market automaker, trades at just 0.7x sales. And then, there's Tesla...\nBased on a fully diluted 1.2 billion share count, Tesla currently commands a $1 trillion valuation at $850 per share. This valuation reflects a more than 30x sales multiple, or more expensive that many of the most dominant, and most profitable tech companies on the planet. The bulls argue that this valuation is justified, because Tesla is, in fact, a tech company. Why? Here's one explanation fromCleanTechnica:\n\n What Makes Tesla a Tech Company?Tesla is creating software, a lot of software. Software is at the essence of Tesla’s unique infotainment system, user experience, and autonomous-driving features. Tesla has implemented over-the-air updates for years, while other automakers are just about to try this.\n\nOf course, no one will deny that Tesla vehicles contain a lot of cool software and other technology (just like every other modern-day automobile). There's just one problem: each piece of software Tesla sells has a car attached to it. Examining Tesla's financials reveals no standalone software segment. In fact, 94% of Tesla’s revenue last year came from automotive sales, leasing and service. That, dear readers, makes it a car company:\n\nI'll save the analysis of Tesla's energy business for future articles, except to note that this battery/solar segment suffers even lower margins than Tesla's unprofitable car business. Back to the original point...\nThe narrative of Tesla as a \"tech company\" is exactly that - an empty narrative, divorced from financial reality. Tesla is only a tech company in the same way that Toyota or Volkswagen are - they all produce vehicles that contain software and other advanced \"technology\". But this alone doesn’t magically transform the economics of manufacturing automobiles.\nAnd the truth is, the car business suffers from pretty dismal economics, especially compared with the software business. Perhaps more than any other single factor, it's this basic financial reality that explains why Tesla shares face 95% downside risk, even assuming perfect execution going forward. So let's explore this point in greater detail, by comparing the economics of making cars versus making software...\nSoftware vs Autos: A Tale of Two Industries\nThe reason why dominant software companies trade at rich valuation multiples of 10-20x sales has nothing to do with so-called \"disruption\" or even innovation. Instead, it's all about the basic business fundamentals of margins, capital requirements and competitive dynamics. Let's consider the case of Microsoft, focusing on the simplified example of its Office software product (ignoring the growing cloud business and other segments for simplicity).\nFor starters, a software product like Microsoft Office enjoys tremendous margins. After the upfront investment of developing the software code, the incremental costs of selling each additional unit are miniscule - especially in today's world of downloadable software. Compare this with producing an automobile, which comes with massive variable costs - including both input materials and labor. This critical difference in unit economics explains why software companies like Microsoft earn 30 - 40% net margins versus carmakers like Tesla that suffer from razor thin, single-digit profitability:\n\nNext, let's talk competition. Given the fat margins in a product like Microsoft Office, why has no competitor emerged to steal away any meaningful market share in the last 25 years? After all, we're not exactly talking rocket science to replicate the basic Office software code. The answer is all about network effects and switching costs. The world already runs on Office products, like Excel. So if you want to share your spreadsheets with the outside world, for example, you have no choice but to use Excel. Meanwhile, who wants the hassle of learning a new spreadsheet interface, and for what upside? To save maybe $20 per year?\nIn short, Microsoft's profitability has nothing to do with narratives like innovation or disruption. It's all about excellent unit economics combined with a virtually impenetrable moat insulating the business against competitors. This moat means Microsoft doesn't need to constantly invest money reinventing the wheel - it merely needs to maintain the status quo functionality of the Office product. So instead of diverting a big chunk of profits back into new product development, those profits instead flow back to shareholders.\nThe mass market car business operates on the exact opposite dynamics, where consumers constantly shop around for the latest vehicle features and designs, delivered at the lowest cost. There are no meaningful competitive moats that prevent consumers from switching brands, or from competitors replicating the latest vehicle designs and technology. That's why, instead of the monopoly-like powers enjoyed by the big tech companies, the car business trends towards commoditization over time. We see evidence of this in the brutally low margins, and in the fact that no single car company owns more than 15% of global market share.\nMany of the bulls mistakenly view Tesla's \"first mover\" status in the EV market as some kind of fundamental competitive advantage, but that ignores the basic competitive dynamics of the car business. First mover advantage doesn't really exist in the commoditized world of auto manufacturing, and Tesla is already providing a perfect case study for those who car to look. In the world's largest EV market - Europe - Tesla's market share has collapsed from undisputed leader as recently as 2019 to third place today, thanks to a flood of new EV competition from legacy auto makers:\n\nAs the world's largest and most competitive EV market, Europe is a bellwether for the future competitive pressures Tesla will face in the U.S. and China. The success of the recently launchedFord Mustang Mach-Eshows that legacy automakers can and will produce compelling EVs on par with, or perhaps even better than Tesla's current offerings. The growing competition is showing up in another key metric:Tesla's relentless price cutsacross all vehicle models, including a$3,000 cut in the Model Y priceonly a few months after initial production.\nClearly, Tesla does not enjoy any meaningful competitive moat, or else it wouldn't be surrendering market share and slashing prices across the board. That means Tesla will need to constantly invest huge sums of money just to keep its head above water earning razor thin margins, as it fights for market share in what is already becoming a highly commoditized EV industry.\nSo to summarize...\nTesla: It's a Car Company\nDespite the bullish narrative about the tremendous \"technology\" Tesla produces, the objective reality in the financial statements shows that Tesla is a car company which happens to produce software. It doesn't enjoy any of the economic benefits that a pure play software producer, like Microsoft enjoys - things like excellent unit economics and a monopoly-like competitive position.\nThe reason companies like Microsoft command valuation premiums of 10x sales or more, is simply because of the high returns on invested capital the business generates. Conversely, even the most profitable car company on the planet - Toyota - trades at less than 1x sales. That's simply a reflection of the brutal economics of high operating costs and intense competitive pressures, which translate into fundamentally low returns on capital. Tesla is not immune from this basic economic reality. If you strip away the hype and just examine the numbers, Tesla looks exactly like your average car company:\n\nBut here's the thing - Tesla actually suffers far worse unit economics than your average car company. The chart above reflects the financials of a one-time outlier year of profitability. Before 2020, Tesla lost money in every year of its existence:\nTesla's 2020 financial results led many bulls to believe the company had finally turned the corner towards sustained profitability. But here again, the objective reality in the financials tell a different story.\nTesla Still Loses Money Making Cars\nThe truth is, Tesla lost money making cars in 2020 - just like every other year in its existence. Tesla only managed to manufacture a one-time profit thanks to a bonanza in government-mandated wealth transfers from the very legacy automakers Tesla seeks to \"disrupt\". Let me explain...\nGovernments around the globe have established regulations designed to move the auto industry away from the internal combustion engine (ICE) towards zero emission vehicles. These regulations establish a maximum emissions threshold associated with ICE vehicle sales. So companies that sell too many ICE vehicles incur fines if they exceed the emission threshold. Conversely, companies that produce zero emission vehicles - like Tesla - earn regulatory credits, which they can then sell to other manufacturers to offset the emission tallies from ICE vehicle sales.\nThe key point here is that Tesla incurs virtually zero costs when selling these regulatory credits. This 100% pure profit margin revenue provides a major boost to Tesla's otherwise dismal financials. Last year, Tesla earned a whopping $1.6 billion in regulatory credits, up more than 150% from the $600 million earned in 2019. Now here's the thing - Tesla only grew its vehicle sales by less than 40% last year. So how do we explain the pace of emission credits massively outpacing its vehicle sales growth?\nOne potential answer lies in Tesla's mushrooming accounts receivables balance, which grew by about half a billion dollars last year. In Tesla's10Q filing from Q3 2020, the company describes a large transaction involving regulatory credit sales that contributed to its account receivables balance:\n\n As of September 30, 2020, one entity represented 10% or more of our total accounts receivable balance, which was related to sales of regulatory credits. As of December 31, 2019, no entity represented 10% of our total accounts receivable balance.\n\nUnfortunately, Tesla provides few additional details explaining what's going on with the accounts receivable balance - a subjectDavid Einhorn has publicly questioned Elon Musk about. But if I were to speculate, it looks like Tesla pulled forward a substantial sum of regulatory credit sales associated with future vehicle sales into the 2020 fiscal year, allowing it to print a one-time profit of $721 million. But if we take away these credit sales (including backing out the estimated taxes paid), Tesla's \"profit\" in 2020 transforms into a $568 million loss:\n(Source: Author, using Tesla filings)\nIn other words, Tesla's core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable. 2020 was not a turning point, but merely an outlier driven by a $1.6 billion bonanza in regulatory emission credits. And the language in its SEC filings indicate that at least some portion of these regulatory credit sales were pulled forward from future years and booked into the accounts receivable balance.\nIn any event, the bottom line is clear: instead of disrupting the legacy automakers, in my view Tesla essentially relies on wealth transfers from its profitable competitors to offset the endless red ink flowing from its own manufacturing operations. Of course, the bulls might argue that it doesn't where the money comes from - profit is profit, right? But here's the problem - Tesla's corporate welfare gravy train will soon hit a brick wall, with nearly every major automaker introducingdozens of new EV modelsthis year and next. And that's just the start. By 2025, hundreds of billions of dollars will have been deployed into new EV models by legacy automakers:\n\nThe coming tsunami of new EVs offerings means regulatory emission credit supply will soar and demand will plunge, and thus killing their value. Within a few short years, Tesla will no longer be able to paper over the losses from its core business with regulatory credit sales. That's not just my opinion - Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn confirmed the temporary nature of Tesla's credit sales during the company'sQ2 2020 earnings call:\n\n ...we don't manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute in a significant way to the future... eventually, the stream of regulatory credits will reduce.\n\nThat means no, not all profit is created equal. An ongoing profit stream from a viable business deserves a valuation multiple. Conversely, a temporary profit stream should be looked through when assessing the long-term value of a business. Since Tesla investors can not count on regulatory credits continuing beyond the next few years, it only makes sense to strip out their impact from the income statement. When you do that, you see that virtually nothing to justify Tesla's manic share price rally in 2020 - the core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable:\n\nMeanwhile, it's not just the rearview financials in the core business that remain unchanged.Jim Chanos recently notedhow the forward analyst estimates for Tesla's 2022 - 2023 earnings are the same as in mid-2019, back when shares traded for $50:\n\n That kind of tells you a little bit about what's happened in the marketplace in that valuations have just gone parabolic for basically a company that's still, in the eyes of analysts, earning at or below where they thought it would be earning two years ago. That's kind of incredible.\n\nSo if neither the trailing business fundamentals nor the forward earnings outlook changed, that leaves only one variable left to explain what sent Tesla shares from $50 to $850: investor psychology. More specifically, manic psychology, fueling a mad scramble for unprofitable companies across the board:\n\nThus, Tesla's parabolic price appreciation is merely one of the countless cases of speculative excess playing out across the financial markets. Make no mistake, the coming unwind of this excess is a question of when, not if. When that day comes, the fallout will likely spread throughout financial markets, taking down the innocent bystanders as collateral damage. That's why I'm betting against Tesla as a hedge against this coming unwind. And the reason Tesla makes such a compelling candidate for a price re-rating is, well... how many other trillion dollar companies do you know of that don't make money in their core business?\nTake away the regulatory profit stream - which will start happening this year - and there's no reason why Tesla should trade for anything above the net cash on the balance sheet - which currently sits at around $7 billion, or about $6 per share on a fully diluted basis. Meanwhile, what's the upside case in the scenario where Tesla transforms itself into a profitable car company? Let's briefly consider that scenario...\nTesla Shares Face 90% Downside, Even with Perfect Execution\nLet's suspend disbelief for a moment and give Tesla full credit for flawless execution on both top line growth and bottom line profitability going forward. For the top line growth assumption, let's simply use the forecast fromTesla's most recent earnings release, where the company guided for 50% annual growth rate in vehicle deliveries going forward. Before moving on, I'll simply note that this projection seems wildly optimistic given Tesla's depleted product pipeline. Both the Tesla Semi and Roadster have missed their original production deadlines by over a year, with no clear timeline yet on when production will begin. Meanwhile, the CyberTruck - Tesla's only mass market vehicle in the pipeline -also appears delayeduntil sometime between 2022 - 2023.\nBut even if we give Tesla full credit for this growth, one thing is clear - it will require massive capital investment. That means significant future equity issuance. Meanwhile, Tesla pays a significant portion of its employee salary expense via stock compensation, including Elon Musk's record shattering$56 billion stock bonus plan(saving the planet ain't cheap, apparently). The bottom line: equity dilution is a real issue for Tesla shareholders. Over the last five years, Tesla shareholders have suffered more than 50% dilution. Given the healthy cash pile currently on the balance sheet, let's conservatively assume the dilution rate slows to 5% annually going forward, starting from today's 1.2 billion fully diluted share count.\nNext, let's talk earnings. Remember, this is our aggressive bull case... so let's hold nothing back. We'll assume that Tesla transforms from a structurally unprofitable automaker into one of the most profitable car companies on the planet - matching the 6% net margins earned by Toyota, the mass market industry leader in profitability.\nFinally, let's give Tesla a best-in-class 25x earnings multiple. That's a more than 300% valuation premium over the industry average of roughly 8x earnings, and more than twice the earnings multiple on Toyota. Putting it all together, the table below shows the key assumptions and annual price targets out to 2025:\n\nIn other words...\nTesla shares face more than 90% downside risk through 2022, even in the aggressive bull case scenario.\nIn future articles, I'll dive deeper into the weeds to show why there's very little chance of Tesla achieving anything close to the targets outlined above. For now, the key takeaway is that even these fantasy fundamentals barely justify a $50 price target.\nBefore wrapping up this analysis and moving on to the trade idea, let me address the final key talking point bulls use to justify Tesla's trillion dollar valuation...\nWhat About the Robotaxis?\nStarting in late 2016,Elon Musk has promisedthe imminent release of Level 5 full self driving capability in all Tesla vehicles. The promise all along has been that, every Tesla rolling off the assembly line contained the necessary hardware for full self driving, and it was only a matter of developing the software to achieve Level 5 autonomy.\nAs a brief bit of background, Level 5 is the highest of6 SAE-defined levels of vehicle autonomy(ranging from 0 to 5). A level 5 vehicle can fully navigate through all environments with zero human supervision. Over the last several years, Musk has made a series of autonomy promises to both consumers and investors which have so far failed to materialize. This includes a2019 capital raise, during which Musk promised a future \"robotaxi\" network that would include a million autonomous Tesla's on the road by 2020. Musk has even claimed that Tesla owners could lend their vehicles out to this future robotaxi network andearn as much as $30,000 per year.\nThose were the promises, but here's the reality... more than four years after making the original promise, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 autonomy. As described in the graphic below, Level 2 autonomy is nothing more than a basic driver assistance feature, which many other automakers currently offer:\nSource (notations by author)\nDespite the endless string of autonomy promises that have gone unfulfilled for more than four years, Musk remains undeterred in continuing to make aggressive projections to investors. On the company's latest earnings, Musk talked up a forecast of $50 billion in future earnings from the non-existent robotaxi network,as CNBC reports:\n\n On the company’s earnings call on Wednesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the valuation makes sense if you assume that billions of dollars worth of cars become robotaxis.He said $50 billion in car sales could produce another $50 billion in “incremental profit” with software margins.\n\nIn other words - ignore the broken autonomy promises over the last four years, and just assume this non-existent robotaxi network will become one of the world's most profitable businesses in the future. I'll save the full autonomy analysis for the future, except to say - if you buy into this projection, then sure, a trillion dollar valuation for Tesla stock can make sense. I'll happily take the other side of that bet.\nAnd without a miracle windfall from robotaxis, there's nothing to stop Mr. Market from repricing Tesla as the unprofitable automaker that it is when today's mania unravels. Which brings us to the final point of this article - the Tesla options trade I'm using to hedge against the unraveling of speculative excess in today's market.\nA Tesla Hedging Trade with Over 10x Upside\nThe full discussion of put option mechanics goes beyond the scope of today's article, but for a high level overview, think of put options as the stock market's version of an insurance policy. Just like your monthly car insurance premiums, most put options expire worthless... but during a crash, they can pay off in a big way.\nPut options achieve this pay off structure by providing short exposure to 100 shares of an underlying stock at the option strike price, up until the expiration date. You pay a premium for the privilege of gaining this short exposure, in the form of the upfront price of the option contract. The reason most options expire worthless is because the stock price must move far enough below the strike price to offset the cost of the option, within a limited time frame (i.e. before the expiration date).\nAnd that brings us to the two key elements of selecting a put option: a target price and a time frame. I just explained the fundamental case for a downside target of $50 in Tesla shares. And from a technical perspective, Tesla based at around $50 in the fourth quarter of 2019 before launching into a parabolic melt-up. The history of parabolic advances says that, when they end, the stock price often revisits the launch pad - which would bring Tesla back to around $50. Meanwhile, in order to give this trade plenty of time, I'm looking out to January 2022 as a rough time frame.\n\nSo this time frame gives a straight forward decision on the option expiration date of January 21, 2022. Meanwhile, in order to give the position plenty of room to be wrong and still pay off, I'll select a strike price of $300. There's a delicate balance when selecting strike prices - a lower strike would provide a higher return, but also come with a lower probability of pay off. As I'll show below, selecting a $300 strike price still provides the chance of earning a decent return even if my $50 downside target proves too aggressive.\nBut before considering the return potential, we have to know the price of the option. At the close of trading on Monday, the $300 strike Tesla put option expiring on January 21, 2022 traded for around $15.75, as shown below:\n\nGiven the 100-share multiplier, the $15.75 quoted price translates into a total cost of $1,575 (plus fees/commissions). With this information, we can determine the return potential of the option for a range of scenarios. In the case where Tesla closes at or above $300 by the expiration date, the option expires worthless, resulting in a 100% loss. Alternatively, if Tesla closes below $300, then the option gains $100 in value for every $1 below the $300 strike price. The table below summarizes this range of scenarios:\n(Note: for simplicity, I assume the option is held until just before the expiration date, and then closed out without exercising the contract).\nSo in the downside scenario outlined earlier, where Tesla trades down to $50 by the January 2022 expiration date, the option value grows from $1,650 to $25,000 - for a gain of about 1,400%. However, even if this downside target proves too aggressive, there's still scope to make a reasonable return. If shares only fall to, say $200, the option still returns roughly 500%.\nAs you can see, it only take a small allocation within an overall portfolio to gain substantial hedging exposure with a trade like this. Of course, recency bias might make $50 or even $200 per share seem outlandish for a stock trading near $850 today. But let's not forget that Tesla was within“single digit weeks” of bankruptcyas recently as 2018. And in May of 2019, topTesla analyst Adam Jonasdescribed the company as “a distressed credit and restructuring story”, with a $10 downside price target (or $2 pre-split).\nThe core business remains virtually unchanged from 2018 and 2019 - when terms like \"bankruptcy\" and \"restructuring\" were on the table. The only key difference is that Tesla now enjoys a positive net cash balance, which takes an immediate bankruptcy scenario off the table. But with less than $10 per share in net cash, this should provide little consolation for the bulls as a valuation floor.\nAll that really needs to happen is for Tesla to continue on its current path of losing money in its core business, and catastrophic downside is in store for the stock. And that's not just my opinion - Elon Musk himself fully recognizes this risk, as he noted in a recentemail to employees:\n\n Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer!\n\nGoing forward, my money's on the sledgehammer, not the soufflé.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":381608649,"gmtCreate":1612958731981,"gmtModify":1703767463641,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381608649","repostId":"1186964240","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186964240","pubTimestamp":1612954337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186964240?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-10 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Baidu in talks to raise money for a standalone A.I. chip company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186964240","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nChinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intell","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nChinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intelligence semiconductor company, a person with knowledge of the matter told CNBC.\nVenture capital firms...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/baidu-in-talks-to-raise-money-for-a-standalone-ai-chip-company-.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Baidu in talks to raise money for a standalone A.I. chip company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBaidu in talks to raise money for a standalone A.I. chip company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 18:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/baidu-in-talks-to-raise-money-for-a-standalone-ai-chip-company-.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nChinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intelligence semiconductor company, a person with knowledge of the matter told CNBC.\nVenture capital firms...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/baidu-in-talks-to-raise-money-for-a-standalone-ai-chip-company-.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/baidu-in-talks-to-raise-money-for-a-standalone-ai-chip-company-.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1186964240","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nChinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intelligence semiconductor company, a person with knowledge of the matter told CNBC.\nVenture capital firms GGV and IDG Capital are involved discussions to pour money into Baidu’s chip firm.\nThe semiconductor business would aim to sell to chips to customers in various industries including automakers.\n\nGUANGZHOU, China — Chinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intelligence semiconductor company, a person with knowledge of the matter told CNBC.\nThe move is emblematic of an ongoing push among China’s biggest technology firms to boost their prowess in the chip sector. And for Baidu, it marks a further effort to diversify its business well beyond advertising.\nBaidu’s Nasdaq-traded shares jumped more than 3.5% after hours. They climbed 6.67% on Tuesday.\nBaidu’s chip company would be a subsidiary, with the search giant likely to be the majority shareholder, the person said. Venture capital firms GGV and IDG Capital are involved in early stage discussions to invest in Baidu’s chip firm, the source added. Both firms have extensive investments in China.\nBaidu declined to comment when contacted by CNBC. IDG Capital was not immediately available for comment.Calls to GGV’s offices in Singapore, Shanghai and Beijing went unanswered.\nCurrently, Baidu has an in-house chip unit that has helped to develop its Kunlun semiconductors, designed to process huge amounts of data for artificial intelligence applications. But a standalone chip company is seen helping Baidu to better commercialize its technology, the source said.\nThe semiconductor business would aim to sell chips to customers in several industries including automakers, which are currently facing a global chip shortage.\nA standalone chip maker could also tie into other parts of Baidu’s businesses, such as its driverless car software.\nDiversification flurry\nBaidu’s move is part of push by the company to diversify its broader business — an effort which since September alone has seen the Chinese technology giant raise money for a biotech firm and a standalone electric vehicle company.\nAdvertising accounts for most of Baidu’s revenue currently, but other operations are contributing a growing percentage of sales. Ad-related revenue, which the company refers to in its earnings statements as online marketing services, accounted for around 80% of total revenue in 2018. That proportion fell to 71% in the third quarter of 2020, the most recent published results.\nBaidu’s semiconductor focus comes as the Chinese government tries to boost domestic independence around that critical technology — a trend that has accelerated during China’s trade war with the United States.\nChinese internet giant Tencent, the owner of messaging app WeChat,recently invested in an AI chip start-up.\nIn 2019, e-commerce company Alibaba launched its first chip to power artificial intelligence processes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386049562,"gmtCreate":1613120183556,"gmtModify":1631891365955,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386049562","repostId":"1113849351","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113849351","pubTimestamp":1612948278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113849351?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-10 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113849351","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through finan","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.</li>\n <li>The bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a structurally unprofitable car company.</li>\n <li>Even assuming flawless execution from here, Tesla shares face over 90% downside.</li>\n <li>This extreme downside risk makes Tesla an excellent candidate for hedging against today's mania.</li>\n <li>I detail an options trade on Tesla designed to hedge against a broader bear market.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If you had any doubts before, thememe stock frenzyof the last few weeks should make one thing abundantly clear...</p>\n<p>Yes, it's a mania.</p>\n<p>In late December, I wrote about thespeculative excessesbubbling up in the financial markets. Things have only accelerated so far this year, with coordinated short squeezes sending the stocks of distressed businesses like GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) into the stratosphere,new record highs in margin debt,or my personal favorite - the relentless buying spree in speculative options among retail traders:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed1ad33fcdca94e8598947008f34056\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Of course, no one knows when this ends... but we all know how it ends. The recent U-turn in meme stocks thatwiped out $167 billion in a matter of daysis a preview for what awaits the broader financial markets. That's why it's never been more important to have a plan in place for hedging the downside. Some investors prefer cash or government bonds - both fine options. But for those willing to get a little more exotic, buying put options on overvalued stocks provides another alternative.</p>\n<p>First, we must identify a company with enough downside to make the bet worthwhile. And for my money, no better stock meets that criteria than electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA). From 2014 through mid-2019, Tesla shares traded in a range between $30 - $80 (split-adjusted). Then, starting in the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla shares entered ludicrous mode - rallying 1,700% from $50 to a recent price of around $850.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b909a9b8f4b39d30a319177076aeab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In today's article, I'll show that virtually nothing changed in Tesla's core business to justify this 17-fold increase in value since Q4 2019. I'll then make the case for why Tesla shares risk revisiting $50, even assuming an aggressive bull case in its future earnings trajectory.</p>\n<p>Given this 95% downside risk in Tesla's share price today, it makes for an excellent candidate to hedge a portfolio against the inevitable unwinding of today's mania. I'll detail a basic put option trade with more than 1,000% upside should this risk materialize going forward.</p>\n<p>Let's begin by first addressing the core thesis bulls use to justify Tesla's stratospheric valuation...</p>\n<p><b>Tesla, More than a Car Company?</b></p>\n<p>There's one simple reason why Tesla bulls need the stock narrative to reflect more just a car company: your average car company trades for less than 0.5x sales. Even Toyota, the world's most profitable mass market automaker, trades at just 0.7x sales. And then, there's Tesla...</p>\n<p>Based on a fully diluted 1.2 billion share count, Tesla currently commands a $1 trillion valuation at $850 per share. This valuation reflects a more than 30x sales multiple, or more expensive that many of the most dominant, and most profitable tech companies on the planet. The bulls argue that this valuation is justified, because Tesla is, in fact, a tech company. Why? Here's one explanation fromCleanTechnica:</p>\n<blockquote>\n What Makes Tesla a Tech Company?Tesla is creating software, a lot of software. Software is at the essence of Tesla’s unique infotainment system, user experience, and autonomous-driving features. Tesla has implemented over-the-air updates for years, while other automakers are just about to try this.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Of course, no one will deny that Tesla vehicles contain a lot of cool software and other technology (just like every other modern-day automobile). There's just one problem: each piece of software Tesla sells has a car attached to it. Examining Tesla's financials reveals no standalone software segment. In fact, 94% of Tesla’s revenue last year came from automotive sales, leasing and service. That, dear readers, makes it a car company:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d1d7eb8b41fba5e2fbeb67c89ec10f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>I'll save the analysis of Tesla's energy business for future articles, except to note that this battery/solar segment suffers even lower margins than Tesla's unprofitable car business. Back to the original point...</p>\n<p>The narrative of Tesla as a \"tech company\" is exactly that - an empty narrative, divorced from financial reality. Tesla is only a tech company in the same way that Toyota or Volkswagen are - they all produce vehicles that contain software and other advanced \"technology\". But this alone doesn’t magically transform the economics of manufacturing automobiles.</p>\n<p>And the truth is, the car business suffers from pretty dismal economics, especially compared with the software business. Perhaps more than any other single factor, it's this basic financial reality that explains why Tesla shares face 95% downside risk, even assuming perfect execution going forward. So let's explore this point in greater detail, by comparing the economics of making cars versus making software...</p>\n<p><b>Software vs Autos: A Tale of Two Industries</b></p>\n<p>The reason why dominant software companies trade at rich valuation multiples of 10-20x sales has nothing to do with so-called \"disruption\" or even innovation. Instead, it's all about the basic business fundamentals of margins, capital requirements and competitive dynamics. Let's consider the case of Microsoft, focusing on the simplified example of its Office software product (ignoring the growing cloud business and other segments for simplicity).</p>\n<p>For starters, a software product like Microsoft Office enjoys tremendous margins. After the upfront investment of developing the software code, the incremental costs of selling each additional unit are miniscule - especially in today's world of downloadable software. Compare this with producing an automobile, which comes with massive variable costs - including both input materials and labor. This critical difference in unit economics explains why software companies like Microsoft earn 30 - 40% net margins versus carmakers like Tesla that suffer from razor thin, single-digit profitability:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c083675b47070a5e8bd130702a838e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Next, let's talk competition. Given the fat margins in a product like Microsoft Office, why has no competitor emerged to steal away any meaningful market share in the last 25 years? After all, we're not exactly talking rocket science to replicate the basic Office software code. The answer is all about network effects and switching costs. The world already runs on Office products, like Excel. So if you want to share your spreadsheets with the outside world, for example, you have no choice but to use Excel. Meanwhile, who wants the hassle of learning a new spreadsheet interface, and for what upside? To save maybe $20 per year?</p>\n<p>In short, Microsoft's profitability has nothing to do with narratives like innovation or disruption. It's all about excellent unit economics combined with a virtually impenetrable moat insulating the business against competitors. This moat means Microsoft doesn't need to constantly invest money reinventing the wheel - it merely needs to maintain the status quo functionality of the Office product. So instead of diverting a big chunk of profits back into new product development, those profits instead flow back to shareholders.</p>\n<p>The mass market car business operates on the exact opposite dynamics, where consumers constantly shop around for the latest vehicle features and designs, delivered at the lowest cost. There are no meaningful competitive moats that prevent consumers from switching brands, or from competitors replicating the latest vehicle designs and technology. That's why, instead of the monopoly-like powers enjoyed by the big tech companies, the car business trends towards commoditization over time. We see evidence of this in the brutally low margins, and in the fact that no single car company owns more than 15% of global market share.</p>\n<p>Many of the bulls mistakenly view Tesla's \"first mover\" status in the EV market as some kind of fundamental competitive advantage, but that ignores the basic competitive dynamics of the car business. First mover advantage doesn't really exist in the commoditized world of auto manufacturing, and Tesla is already providing a perfect case study for those who car to look. In the world's largest EV market - Europe - Tesla's market share has collapsed from undisputed leader as recently as 2019 to third place today, thanks to a flood of new EV competition from legacy auto makers:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c2ce6fbcf99c716e30ea76507893618\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As the world's largest and most competitive EV market, Europe is a bellwether for the future competitive pressures Tesla will face in the U.S. and China. The success of the recently launchedFord Mustang Mach-Eshows that legacy automakers can and will produce compelling EVs on par with, or perhaps even better than Tesla's current offerings. The growing competition is showing up in another key metric:Tesla's relentless price cutsacross all vehicle models, including a$3,000 cut in the Model Y priceonly a few months after initial production.</p>\n<p>Clearly, Tesla does not enjoy any meaningful competitive moat, or else it wouldn't be surrendering market share and slashing prices across the board. That means Tesla will need to constantly invest huge sums of money just to keep its head above water earning razor thin margins, as it fights for market share in what is already becoming a highly commoditized EV industry.</p>\n<p>So to summarize...</p>\n<p><b>Tesla: It's a Car Company</b></p>\n<p>Despite the bullish narrative about the tremendous \"technology\" Tesla produces, the objective reality in the financial statements shows that Tesla is a car company which happens to produce software. It doesn't enjoy any of the economic benefits that a pure play software producer, like Microsoft enjoys - things like excellent unit economics and a monopoly-like competitive position.</p>\n<p>The reason companies like Microsoft command valuation premiums of 10x sales or more, is simply because of the high returns on invested capital the business generates. Conversely, even the most profitable car company on the planet - Toyota - trades at less than 1x sales. That's simply a reflection of the brutal economics of high operating costs and intense competitive pressures, which translate into fundamentally low returns on capital. Tesla is not immune from this basic economic reality. If you strip away the hype and just examine the numbers, Tesla looks exactly like your average car company:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05782c8583b26edd51aeb769b32ced1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>But here's the thing - Tesla actually suffers far worse unit economics than your average car company. The chart above reflects the financials of a one-time outlier year of profitability. Before 2020, Tesla lost money in every year of its existence:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07426fdf2d4f750a787924e8bc48775f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's 2020 financial results led many bulls to believe the company had finally turned the corner towards sustained profitability. But here again, the objective reality in the financials tell a different story.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla Still Loses Money Making Cars</b></p>\n<p>The truth is, Tesla lost money making cars in 2020 - just like every other year in its existence. Tesla only managed to manufacture a one-time profit thanks to a bonanza in government-mandated wealth transfers from the very legacy automakers Tesla seeks to \"disrupt\". Let me explain...</p>\n<p>Governments around the globe have established regulations designed to move the auto industry away from the internal combustion engine (ICE) towards zero emission vehicles. These regulations establish a maximum emissions threshold associated with ICE vehicle sales. So companies that sell too many ICE vehicles incur fines if they exceed the emission threshold. Conversely, companies that produce zero emission vehicles - like Tesla - earn regulatory credits, which they can then sell to other manufacturers to offset the emission tallies from ICE vehicle sales.</p>\n<p>The key point here is that Tesla incurs virtually zero costs when selling these regulatory credits. This 100% pure profit margin revenue provides a major boost to Tesla's otherwise dismal financials. Last year, Tesla earned a whopping $1.6 billion in regulatory credits, up more than 150% from the $600 million earned in 2019. Now here's the thing - Tesla only grew its vehicle sales by less than 40% last year. So how do we explain the pace of emission credits massively outpacing its vehicle sales growth?</p>\n<p>One potential answer lies in Tesla's mushrooming accounts receivables balance, which grew by about half a billion dollars last year. In Tesla's10Q filing from Q3 2020, the company describes a large transaction involving regulatory credit sales that contributed to its account receivables balance:</p>\n<blockquote>\n As of September 30, 2020, one entity represented 10% or more of our total accounts receivable balance, which was related to sales of regulatory credits. As of December 31, 2019, no entity represented 10% of our total accounts receivable balance.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Unfortunately, Tesla provides few additional details explaining what's going on with the accounts receivable balance - a subjectDavid Einhorn has publicly questioned Elon Musk about. But if I were to speculate, it looks like Tesla pulled forward a substantial sum of regulatory credit sales associated with future vehicle sales into the 2020 fiscal year, allowing it to print a one-time profit of $721 million. But if we take away these credit sales (including backing out the estimated taxes paid), Tesla's \"profit\" in 2020 transforms into a $568 million loss:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac66da8f996eb6f7089a2c90e7dda12c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\"><span>(Source: Author, using Tesla filings)</span></p>\n<p>In other words, Tesla's core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable. 2020 was not a turning point, but merely an outlier driven by a $1.6 billion bonanza in regulatory emission credits. And the language in its SEC filings indicate that at least some portion of these regulatory credit sales were pulled forward from future years and booked into the accounts receivable balance.</p>\n<p>In any event, the bottom line is clear: instead of disrupting the legacy automakers, in my view Tesla essentially relies on wealth transfers from its profitable competitors to offset the endless red ink flowing from its own manufacturing operations. Of course, the bulls might argue that it doesn't where the money comes from - profit is profit, right? But here's the problem - Tesla's corporate welfare gravy train will soon hit a brick wall, with nearly every major automaker introducingdozens of new EV modelsthis year and next. And that's just the start. By 2025, hundreds of billions of dollars will have been deployed into new EV models by legacy automakers:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05cf0587c2addcd549edab52ba39f82f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The coming tsunami of new EVs offerings means regulatory emission credit supply will soar and demand will plunge, and thus killing their value. Within a few short years, Tesla will no longer be able to paper over the losses from its core business with regulatory credit sales. That's not just my opinion - Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn confirmed the temporary nature of Tesla's credit sales during the company'sQ2 2020 earnings call:</p>\n<blockquote>\n ...we don't manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute in a significant way to the future... eventually, the stream of regulatory credits will reduce.\n</blockquote>\n<p>That means no, not all profit is created equal. An ongoing profit stream from a viable business deserves a valuation multiple. Conversely, a temporary profit stream should be looked through when assessing the long-term value of a business. Since Tesla investors can not count on regulatory credits continuing beyond the next few years, it only makes sense to strip out their impact from the income statement. When you do that, you see that virtually nothing to justify Tesla's manic share price rally in 2020 - the core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35bc24f3b93c083529b291bfa499d17c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, it's not just the rearview financials in the core business that remain unchanged.Jim Chanos recently notedhow the forward analyst estimates for Tesla's 2022 - 2023 earnings are the same as in mid-2019, back when shares traded for $50:</p>\n<blockquote>\n That kind of tells you a little bit about what's happened in the marketplace in that valuations have just gone parabolic for basically a company that's still, in the eyes of analysts, earning at or below where they thought it would be earning two years ago. That's kind of incredible.\n</blockquote>\n<p>So if neither the trailing business fundamentals nor the forward earnings outlook changed, that leaves only one variable left to explain what sent Tesla shares from $50 to $850: investor psychology. More specifically, manic psychology, fueling a mad scramble for unprofitable companies across the board:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ddc266e80382c1f5544c7bf8e51828\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Thus, Tesla's parabolic price appreciation is merely one of the countless cases of speculative excess playing out across the financial markets. Make no mistake, the coming unwind of this excess is a question of when, not if. When that day comes, the fallout will likely spread throughout financial markets, taking down the innocent bystanders as collateral damage. That's why I'm betting against Tesla as a hedge against this coming unwind. And the reason Tesla makes such a compelling candidate for a price re-rating is, well... how many other trillion dollar companies do you know of that don't make money in their core business?</p>\n<p>Take away the regulatory profit stream - which will start happening this year - and there's no reason why Tesla should trade for anything above the net cash on the balance sheet - which currently sits at around $7 billion, or about $6 per share on a fully diluted basis. Meanwhile, what's the upside case in the scenario where Tesla transforms itself into a profitable car company? Let's briefly consider that scenario...</p>\n<p>Tesla Shares Face 90% Downside, Even with Perfect Execution</p>\n<p>Let's suspend disbelief for a moment and give Tesla full credit for flawless execution on both top line growth and bottom line profitability going forward. For the top line growth assumption, let's simply use the forecast fromTesla's most recent earnings release, where the company guided for 50% annual growth rate in vehicle deliveries going forward. Before moving on, I'll simply note that this projection seems wildly optimistic given Tesla's depleted product pipeline. Both the Tesla Semi and Roadster have missed their original production deadlines by over a year, with no clear timeline yet on when production will begin. Meanwhile, the CyberTruck - Tesla's only mass market vehicle in the pipeline -also appears delayeduntil sometime between 2022 - 2023.</p>\n<p>But even if we give Tesla full credit for this growth, one thing is clear - it will require massive capital investment. That means significant future equity issuance. Meanwhile, Tesla pays a significant portion of its employee salary expense via stock compensation, including Elon Musk's record shattering$56 billion stock bonus plan(saving the planet ain't cheap, apparently). The bottom line: equity dilution is a real issue for Tesla shareholders. Over the last five years, Tesla shareholders have suffered more than 50% dilution. Given the healthy cash pile currently on the balance sheet, let's conservatively assume the dilution rate slows to 5% annually going forward, starting from today's 1.2 billion fully diluted share count.</p>\n<p>Next, let's talk earnings. Remember, this is our aggressive bull case... so let's hold nothing back. We'll assume that Tesla transforms from a structurally unprofitable automaker into one of the most profitable car companies on the planet - matching the 6% net margins earned by Toyota, the mass market industry leader in profitability.</p>\n<p>Finally, let's give Tesla a best-in-class 25x earnings multiple. That's a more than 300% valuation premium over the industry average of roughly 8x earnings, and more than twice the earnings multiple on Toyota. Putting it all together, the table below shows the key assumptions and annual price targets out to 2025:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381ad84108e848b2bfe8fc2001b57800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In other words...</p>\n<p><i><b>Tesla shares face more than 90% downside risk through 2022, even in the aggressive bull case scenario.</b></i></p>\n<p>In future articles, I'll dive deeper into the weeds to show why there's very little chance of Tesla achieving anything close to the targets outlined above. For now, the key takeaway is that even these fantasy fundamentals barely justify a $50 price target.</p>\n<p>Before wrapping up this analysis and moving on to the trade idea, let me address the final key talking point bulls use to justify Tesla's trillion dollar valuation...</p>\n<p>What About the Robotaxis?</p>\n<p>Starting in late 2016,Elon Musk has promisedthe imminent release of Level 5 full self driving capability in all Tesla vehicles. The promise all along has been that, every Tesla rolling off the assembly line contained the necessary hardware for full self driving, and it was only a matter of developing the software to achieve Level 5 autonomy.</p>\n<p>As a brief bit of background, Level 5 is the highest of6 SAE-defined levels of vehicle autonomy(ranging from 0 to 5). A level 5 vehicle can fully navigate through all environments with zero human supervision. Over the last several years, Musk has made a series of autonomy promises to both consumers and investors which have so far failed to materialize. This includes a2019 capital raise, during which Musk promised a future \"robotaxi\" network that would include a million autonomous Tesla's on the road by 2020. Musk has even claimed that Tesla owners could lend their vehicles out to this future robotaxi network andearn as much as $30,000 per year.</p>\n<p>Those were the promises, but here's the reality... more than four years after making the original promise, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 autonomy. As described in the graphic below, Level 2 autonomy is nothing more than a basic driver assistance feature, which many other automakers currently offer:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a572a2cdf3f9b0161fb7fef5abce9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source (notations by author)</span></p>\n<p>Despite the endless string of autonomy promises that have gone unfulfilled for more than four years, Musk remains undeterred in continuing to make aggressive projections to investors. On the company's latest earnings, Musk talked up a forecast of $50 billion in future earnings from the non-existent robotaxi network,as CNBC reports:</p>\n<blockquote>\n On the company’s earnings call on Wednesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the valuation makes sense if you assume that billions of dollars worth of cars become robotaxis.He said $50 billion in car sales could produce another $50 billion in “incremental profit” with software margins.\n</blockquote>\n<p>In other words - ignore the broken autonomy promises over the last four years, and just assume this non-existent robotaxi network will become one of the world's most profitable businesses in the future. I'll save the full autonomy analysis for the future, except to say - if you buy into this projection, then sure, a trillion dollar valuation for Tesla stock can make sense. I'll happily take the other side of that bet.</p>\n<p>And without a miracle windfall from robotaxis, there's nothing to stop Mr. Market from repricing Tesla as the unprofitable automaker that it is when today's mania unravels. Which brings us to the final point of this article - the Tesla options trade I'm using to hedge against the unraveling of speculative excess in today's market.</p>\n<p><b>A Tesla Hedging Trade with Over 10x Upside</b></p>\n<p>The full discussion of put option mechanics goes beyond the scope of today's article, but for a high level overview, think of put options as the stock market's version of an insurance policy. Just like your monthly car insurance premiums, most put options expire worthless... but during a crash, they can pay off in a big way.</p>\n<p>Put options achieve this pay off structure by providing short exposure to 100 shares of an underlying stock at the option strike price, up until the expiration date. You pay a premium for the privilege of gaining this short exposure, in the form of the upfront price of the option contract. The reason most options expire worthless is because the stock price must move far enough below the strike price to offset the cost of the option, within a limited time frame (i.e. before the expiration date).</p>\n<p>And that brings us to the two key elements of selecting a put option: a target price and a time frame. I just explained the fundamental case for a downside target of $50 in Tesla shares. And from a technical perspective, Tesla based at around $50 in the fourth quarter of 2019 before launching into a parabolic melt-up. The history of parabolic advances says that, when they end, the stock price often revisits the launch pad - which would bring Tesla back to around $50. Meanwhile, in order to give this trade plenty of time, I'm looking out to January 2022 as a rough time frame.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ca705542b208fa6c8afca0795f80259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So this time frame gives a straight forward decision on the option expiration date of January 21, 2022. Meanwhile, in order to give the position plenty of room to be wrong and still pay off, I'll select a strike price of $300. There's a delicate balance when selecting strike prices - a lower strike would provide a higher return, but also come with a lower probability of pay off. As I'll show below, selecting a $300 strike price still provides the chance of earning a decent return even if my $50 downside target proves too aggressive.</p>\n<p>But before considering the return potential, we have to know the price of the option. At the close of trading on Monday, the $300 strike Tesla put option expiring on January 21, 2022 traded for around $15.75, as shown below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18b6b326a4fadbe5a0dae10c0355ac6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"38\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Given the 100-share multiplier, the $15.75 quoted price translates into a total cost of $1,575 (plus fees/commissions). With this information, we can determine the return potential of the option for a range of scenarios. In the case where Tesla closes at or above $300 by the expiration date, the option expires worthless, resulting in a 100% loss. Alternatively, if Tesla closes below $300, then the option gains $100 in value for every $1 below the $300 strike price. The table below summarizes this range of scenarios:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33d0ec6d30e3088aad23b0bf644728ab\" tg-width=\"453\" tg-height=\"244\"><span>(Note: for simplicity, I assume the option is held until just before the expiration date, and then closed out without exercising the contract).</span></p>\n<p>So in the downside scenario outlined earlier, where Tesla trades down to $50 by the January 2022 expiration date, the option value grows from $1,650 to $25,000 - for a gain of about 1,400%. However, even if this downside target proves too aggressive, there's still scope to make a reasonable return. If shares only fall to, say $200, the option still returns roughly 500%.</p>\n<p>As you can see, it only take a small allocation within an overall portfolio to gain substantial hedging exposure with a trade like this. Of course, recency bias might make $50 or even $200 per share seem outlandish for a stock trading near $850 today. But let's not forget that Tesla was within“single digit weeks” of bankruptcyas recently as 2018. And in May of 2019, topTesla analyst Adam Jonasdescribed the company as “a distressed credit and restructuring story”, with a $10 downside price target (or $2 pre-split).</p>\n<p>The core business remains virtually unchanged from 2018 and 2019 - when terms like \"bankruptcy\" and \"restructuring\" were on the table. The only key difference is that Tesla now enjoys a positive net cash balance, which takes an immediate bankruptcy scenario off the table. But with less than $10 per share in net cash, this should provide little consolation for the bulls as a valuation floor.</p>\n<p>All that really needs to happen is for Tesla to continue on its current path of losing money in its core business, and catastrophic downside is in store for the stock. And that's not just my opinion - Elon Musk himself fully recognizes this risk, as he noted in a recentemail to employees:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer!\n</blockquote>\n<p>Going forward, my money's on the sledgehammer, not the soufflé.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.\nThe bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1113849351","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.\nThe bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a structurally unprofitable car company.\nEven assuming flawless execution from here, Tesla shares face over 90% downside.\nThis extreme downside risk makes Tesla an excellent candidate for hedging against today's mania.\nI detail an options trade on Tesla designed to hedge against a broader bear market.\n\nIf you had any doubts before, thememe stock frenzyof the last few weeks should make one thing abundantly clear...\nYes, it's a mania.\nIn late December, I wrote about thespeculative excessesbubbling up in the financial markets. Things have only accelerated so far this year, with coordinated short squeezes sending the stocks of distressed businesses like GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) into the stratosphere,new record highs in margin debt,or my personal favorite - the relentless buying spree in speculative options among retail traders:\n\nOf course, no one knows when this ends... but we all know how it ends. The recent U-turn in meme stocks thatwiped out $167 billion in a matter of daysis a preview for what awaits the broader financial markets. That's why it's never been more important to have a plan in place for hedging the downside. Some investors prefer cash or government bonds - both fine options. But for those willing to get a little more exotic, buying put options on overvalued stocks provides another alternative.\nFirst, we must identify a company with enough downside to make the bet worthwhile. And for my money, no better stock meets that criteria than electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA). From 2014 through mid-2019, Tesla shares traded in a range between $30 - $80 (split-adjusted). Then, starting in the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla shares entered ludicrous mode - rallying 1,700% from $50 to a recent price of around $850.\n\nIn today's article, I'll show that virtually nothing changed in Tesla's core business to justify this 17-fold increase in value since Q4 2019. I'll then make the case for why Tesla shares risk revisiting $50, even assuming an aggressive bull case in its future earnings trajectory.\nGiven this 95% downside risk in Tesla's share price today, it makes for an excellent candidate to hedge a portfolio against the inevitable unwinding of today's mania. I'll detail a basic put option trade with more than 1,000% upside should this risk materialize going forward.\nLet's begin by first addressing the core thesis bulls use to justify Tesla's stratospheric valuation...\nTesla, More than a Car Company?\nThere's one simple reason why Tesla bulls need the stock narrative to reflect more just a car company: your average car company trades for less than 0.5x sales. Even Toyota, the world's most profitable mass market automaker, trades at just 0.7x sales. And then, there's Tesla...\nBased on a fully diluted 1.2 billion share count, Tesla currently commands a $1 trillion valuation at $850 per share. This valuation reflects a more than 30x sales multiple, or more expensive that many of the most dominant, and most profitable tech companies on the planet. The bulls argue that this valuation is justified, because Tesla is, in fact, a tech company. Why? Here's one explanation fromCleanTechnica:\n\n What Makes Tesla a Tech Company?Tesla is creating software, a lot of software. Software is at the essence of Tesla’s unique infotainment system, user experience, and autonomous-driving features. Tesla has implemented over-the-air updates for years, while other automakers are just about to try this.\n\nOf course, no one will deny that Tesla vehicles contain a lot of cool software and other technology (just like every other modern-day automobile). There's just one problem: each piece of software Tesla sells has a car attached to it. Examining Tesla's financials reveals no standalone software segment. In fact, 94% of Tesla’s revenue last year came from automotive sales, leasing and service. That, dear readers, makes it a car company:\n\nI'll save the analysis of Tesla's energy business for future articles, except to note that this battery/solar segment suffers even lower margins than Tesla's unprofitable car business. Back to the original point...\nThe narrative of Tesla as a \"tech company\" is exactly that - an empty narrative, divorced from financial reality. Tesla is only a tech company in the same way that Toyota or Volkswagen are - they all produce vehicles that contain software and other advanced \"technology\". But this alone doesn’t magically transform the economics of manufacturing automobiles.\nAnd the truth is, the car business suffers from pretty dismal economics, especially compared with the software business. Perhaps more than any other single factor, it's this basic financial reality that explains why Tesla shares face 95% downside risk, even assuming perfect execution going forward. So let's explore this point in greater detail, by comparing the economics of making cars versus making software...\nSoftware vs Autos: A Tale of Two Industries\nThe reason why dominant software companies trade at rich valuation multiples of 10-20x sales has nothing to do with so-called \"disruption\" or even innovation. Instead, it's all about the basic business fundamentals of margins, capital requirements and competitive dynamics. Let's consider the case of Microsoft, focusing on the simplified example of its Office software product (ignoring the growing cloud business and other segments for simplicity).\nFor starters, a software product like Microsoft Office enjoys tremendous margins. After the upfront investment of developing the software code, the incremental costs of selling each additional unit are miniscule - especially in today's world of downloadable software. Compare this with producing an automobile, which comes with massive variable costs - including both input materials and labor. This critical difference in unit economics explains why software companies like Microsoft earn 30 - 40% net margins versus carmakers like Tesla that suffer from razor thin, single-digit profitability:\n\nNext, let's talk competition. Given the fat margins in a product like Microsoft Office, why has no competitor emerged to steal away any meaningful market share in the last 25 years? After all, we're not exactly talking rocket science to replicate the basic Office software code. The answer is all about network effects and switching costs. The world already runs on Office products, like Excel. So if you want to share your spreadsheets with the outside world, for example, you have no choice but to use Excel. Meanwhile, who wants the hassle of learning a new spreadsheet interface, and for what upside? To save maybe $20 per year?\nIn short, Microsoft's profitability has nothing to do with narratives like innovation or disruption. It's all about excellent unit economics combined with a virtually impenetrable moat insulating the business against competitors. This moat means Microsoft doesn't need to constantly invest money reinventing the wheel - it merely needs to maintain the status quo functionality of the Office product. So instead of diverting a big chunk of profits back into new product development, those profits instead flow back to shareholders.\nThe mass market car business operates on the exact opposite dynamics, where consumers constantly shop around for the latest vehicle features and designs, delivered at the lowest cost. There are no meaningful competitive moats that prevent consumers from switching brands, or from competitors replicating the latest vehicle designs and technology. That's why, instead of the monopoly-like powers enjoyed by the big tech companies, the car business trends towards commoditization over time. We see evidence of this in the brutally low margins, and in the fact that no single car company owns more than 15% of global market share.\nMany of the bulls mistakenly view Tesla's \"first mover\" status in the EV market as some kind of fundamental competitive advantage, but that ignores the basic competitive dynamics of the car business. First mover advantage doesn't really exist in the commoditized world of auto manufacturing, and Tesla is already providing a perfect case study for those who car to look. In the world's largest EV market - Europe - Tesla's market share has collapsed from undisputed leader as recently as 2019 to third place today, thanks to a flood of new EV competition from legacy auto makers:\n\nAs the world's largest and most competitive EV market, Europe is a bellwether for the future competitive pressures Tesla will face in the U.S. and China. The success of the recently launchedFord Mustang Mach-Eshows that legacy automakers can and will produce compelling EVs on par with, or perhaps even better than Tesla's current offerings. The growing competition is showing up in another key metric:Tesla's relentless price cutsacross all vehicle models, including a$3,000 cut in the Model Y priceonly a few months after initial production.\nClearly, Tesla does not enjoy any meaningful competitive moat, or else it wouldn't be surrendering market share and slashing prices across the board. That means Tesla will need to constantly invest huge sums of money just to keep its head above water earning razor thin margins, as it fights for market share in what is already becoming a highly commoditized EV industry.\nSo to summarize...\nTesla: It's a Car Company\nDespite the bullish narrative about the tremendous \"technology\" Tesla produces, the objective reality in the financial statements shows that Tesla is a car company which happens to produce software. It doesn't enjoy any of the economic benefits that a pure play software producer, like Microsoft enjoys - things like excellent unit economics and a monopoly-like competitive position.\nThe reason companies like Microsoft command valuation premiums of 10x sales or more, is simply because of the high returns on invested capital the business generates. Conversely, even the most profitable car company on the planet - Toyota - trades at less than 1x sales. That's simply a reflection of the brutal economics of high operating costs and intense competitive pressures, which translate into fundamentally low returns on capital. Tesla is not immune from this basic economic reality. If you strip away the hype and just examine the numbers, Tesla looks exactly like your average car company:\n\nBut here's the thing - Tesla actually suffers far worse unit economics than your average car company. The chart above reflects the financials of a one-time outlier year of profitability. Before 2020, Tesla lost money in every year of its existence:\nTesla's 2020 financial results led many bulls to believe the company had finally turned the corner towards sustained profitability. But here again, the objective reality in the financials tell a different story.\nTesla Still Loses Money Making Cars\nThe truth is, Tesla lost money making cars in 2020 - just like every other year in its existence. Tesla only managed to manufacture a one-time profit thanks to a bonanza in government-mandated wealth transfers from the very legacy automakers Tesla seeks to \"disrupt\". Let me explain...\nGovernments around the globe have established regulations designed to move the auto industry away from the internal combustion engine (ICE) towards zero emission vehicles. These regulations establish a maximum emissions threshold associated with ICE vehicle sales. So companies that sell too many ICE vehicles incur fines if they exceed the emission threshold. Conversely, companies that produce zero emission vehicles - like Tesla - earn regulatory credits, which they can then sell to other manufacturers to offset the emission tallies from ICE vehicle sales.\nThe key point here is that Tesla incurs virtually zero costs when selling these regulatory credits. This 100% pure profit margin revenue provides a major boost to Tesla's otherwise dismal financials. Last year, Tesla earned a whopping $1.6 billion in regulatory credits, up more than 150% from the $600 million earned in 2019. Now here's the thing - Tesla only grew its vehicle sales by less than 40% last year. So how do we explain the pace of emission credits massively outpacing its vehicle sales growth?\nOne potential answer lies in Tesla's mushrooming accounts receivables balance, which grew by about half a billion dollars last year. In Tesla's10Q filing from Q3 2020, the company describes a large transaction involving regulatory credit sales that contributed to its account receivables balance:\n\n As of September 30, 2020, one entity represented 10% or more of our total accounts receivable balance, which was related to sales of regulatory credits. As of December 31, 2019, no entity represented 10% of our total accounts receivable balance.\n\nUnfortunately, Tesla provides few additional details explaining what's going on with the accounts receivable balance - a subjectDavid Einhorn has publicly questioned Elon Musk about. But if I were to speculate, it looks like Tesla pulled forward a substantial sum of regulatory credit sales associated with future vehicle sales into the 2020 fiscal year, allowing it to print a one-time profit of $721 million. But if we take away these credit sales (including backing out the estimated taxes paid), Tesla's \"profit\" in 2020 transforms into a $568 million loss:\n(Source: Author, using Tesla filings)\nIn other words, Tesla's core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable. 2020 was not a turning point, but merely an outlier driven by a $1.6 billion bonanza in regulatory emission credits. And the language in its SEC filings indicate that at least some portion of these regulatory credit sales were pulled forward from future years and booked into the accounts receivable balance.\nIn any event, the bottom line is clear: instead of disrupting the legacy automakers, in my view Tesla essentially relies on wealth transfers from its profitable competitors to offset the endless red ink flowing from its own manufacturing operations. Of course, the bulls might argue that it doesn't where the money comes from - profit is profit, right? But here's the problem - Tesla's corporate welfare gravy train will soon hit a brick wall, with nearly every major automaker introducingdozens of new EV modelsthis year and next. And that's just the start. By 2025, hundreds of billions of dollars will have been deployed into new EV models by legacy automakers:\n\nThe coming tsunami of new EVs offerings means regulatory emission credit supply will soar and demand will plunge, and thus killing their value. Within a few short years, Tesla will no longer be able to paper over the losses from its core business with regulatory credit sales. That's not just my opinion - Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn confirmed the temporary nature of Tesla's credit sales during the company'sQ2 2020 earnings call:\n\n ...we don't manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute in a significant way to the future... eventually, the stream of regulatory credits will reduce.\n\nThat means no, not all profit is created equal. An ongoing profit stream from a viable business deserves a valuation multiple. Conversely, a temporary profit stream should be looked through when assessing the long-term value of a business. Since Tesla investors can not count on regulatory credits continuing beyond the next few years, it only makes sense to strip out their impact from the income statement. When you do that, you see that virtually nothing to justify Tesla's manic share price rally in 2020 - the core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable:\n\nMeanwhile, it's not just the rearview financials in the core business that remain unchanged.Jim Chanos recently notedhow the forward analyst estimates for Tesla's 2022 - 2023 earnings are the same as in mid-2019, back when shares traded for $50:\n\n That kind of tells you a little bit about what's happened in the marketplace in that valuations have just gone parabolic for basically a company that's still, in the eyes of analysts, earning at or below where they thought it would be earning two years ago. That's kind of incredible.\n\nSo if neither the trailing business fundamentals nor the forward earnings outlook changed, that leaves only one variable left to explain what sent Tesla shares from $50 to $850: investor psychology. More specifically, manic psychology, fueling a mad scramble for unprofitable companies across the board:\n\nThus, Tesla's parabolic price appreciation is merely one of the countless cases of speculative excess playing out across the financial markets. Make no mistake, the coming unwind of this excess is a question of when, not if. When that day comes, the fallout will likely spread throughout financial markets, taking down the innocent bystanders as collateral damage. That's why I'm betting against Tesla as a hedge against this coming unwind. And the reason Tesla makes such a compelling candidate for a price re-rating is, well... how many other trillion dollar companies do you know of that don't make money in their core business?\nTake away the regulatory profit stream - which will start happening this year - and there's no reason why Tesla should trade for anything above the net cash on the balance sheet - which currently sits at around $7 billion, or about $6 per share on a fully diluted basis. Meanwhile, what's the upside case in the scenario where Tesla transforms itself into a profitable car company? Let's briefly consider that scenario...\nTesla Shares Face 90% Downside, Even with Perfect Execution\nLet's suspend disbelief for a moment and give Tesla full credit for flawless execution on both top line growth and bottom line profitability going forward. For the top line growth assumption, let's simply use the forecast fromTesla's most recent earnings release, where the company guided for 50% annual growth rate in vehicle deliveries going forward. Before moving on, I'll simply note that this projection seems wildly optimistic given Tesla's depleted product pipeline. Both the Tesla Semi and Roadster have missed their original production deadlines by over a year, with no clear timeline yet on when production will begin. Meanwhile, the CyberTruck - Tesla's only mass market vehicle in the pipeline -also appears delayeduntil sometime between 2022 - 2023.\nBut even if we give Tesla full credit for this growth, one thing is clear - it will require massive capital investment. That means significant future equity issuance. Meanwhile, Tesla pays a significant portion of its employee salary expense via stock compensation, including Elon Musk's record shattering$56 billion stock bonus plan(saving the planet ain't cheap, apparently). The bottom line: equity dilution is a real issue for Tesla shareholders. Over the last five years, Tesla shareholders have suffered more than 50% dilution. Given the healthy cash pile currently on the balance sheet, let's conservatively assume the dilution rate slows to 5% annually going forward, starting from today's 1.2 billion fully diluted share count.\nNext, let's talk earnings. Remember, this is our aggressive bull case... so let's hold nothing back. We'll assume that Tesla transforms from a structurally unprofitable automaker into one of the most profitable car companies on the planet - matching the 6% net margins earned by Toyota, the mass market industry leader in profitability.\nFinally, let's give Tesla a best-in-class 25x earnings multiple. That's a more than 300% valuation premium over the industry average of roughly 8x earnings, and more than twice the earnings multiple on Toyota. Putting it all together, the table below shows the key assumptions and annual price targets out to 2025:\n\nIn other words...\nTesla shares face more than 90% downside risk through 2022, even in the aggressive bull case scenario.\nIn future articles, I'll dive deeper into the weeds to show why there's very little chance of Tesla achieving anything close to the targets outlined above. For now, the key takeaway is that even these fantasy fundamentals barely justify a $50 price target.\nBefore wrapping up this analysis and moving on to the trade idea, let me address the final key talking point bulls use to justify Tesla's trillion dollar valuation...\nWhat About the Robotaxis?\nStarting in late 2016,Elon Musk has promisedthe imminent release of Level 5 full self driving capability in all Tesla vehicles. The promise all along has been that, every Tesla rolling off the assembly line contained the necessary hardware for full self driving, and it was only a matter of developing the software to achieve Level 5 autonomy.\nAs a brief bit of background, Level 5 is the highest of6 SAE-defined levels of vehicle autonomy(ranging from 0 to 5). A level 5 vehicle can fully navigate through all environments with zero human supervision. Over the last several years, Musk has made a series of autonomy promises to both consumers and investors which have so far failed to materialize. This includes a2019 capital raise, during which Musk promised a future \"robotaxi\" network that would include a million autonomous Tesla's on the road by 2020. Musk has even claimed that Tesla owners could lend their vehicles out to this future robotaxi network andearn as much as $30,000 per year.\nThose were the promises, but here's the reality... more than four years after making the original promise, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 autonomy. As described in the graphic below, Level 2 autonomy is nothing more than a basic driver assistance feature, which many other automakers currently offer:\nSource (notations by author)\nDespite the endless string of autonomy promises that have gone unfulfilled for more than four years, Musk remains undeterred in continuing to make aggressive projections to investors. On the company's latest earnings, Musk talked up a forecast of $50 billion in future earnings from the non-existent robotaxi network,as CNBC reports:\n\n On the company’s earnings call on Wednesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the valuation makes sense if you assume that billions of dollars worth of cars become robotaxis.He said $50 billion in car sales could produce another $50 billion in “incremental profit” with software margins.\n\nIn other words - ignore the broken autonomy promises over the last four years, and just assume this non-existent robotaxi network will become one of the world's most profitable businesses in the future. I'll save the full autonomy analysis for the future, except to say - if you buy into this projection, then sure, a trillion dollar valuation for Tesla stock can make sense. I'll happily take the other side of that bet.\nAnd without a miracle windfall from robotaxis, there's nothing to stop Mr. Market from repricing Tesla as the unprofitable automaker that it is when today's mania unravels. Which brings us to the final point of this article - the Tesla options trade I'm using to hedge against the unraveling of speculative excess in today's market.\nA Tesla Hedging Trade with Over 10x Upside\nThe full discussion of put option mechanics goes beyond the scope of today's article, but for a high level overview, think of put options as the stock market's version of an insurance policy. Just like your monthly car insurance premiums, most put options expire worthless... but during a crash, they can pay off in a big way.\nPut options achieve this pay off structure by providing short exposure to 100 shares of an underlying stock at the option strike price, up until the expiration date. You pay a premium for the privilege of gaining this short exposure, in the form of the upfront price of the option contract. The reason most options expire worthless is because the stock price must move far enough below the strike price to offset the cost of the option, within a limited time frame (i.e. before the expiration date).\nAnd that brings us to the two key elements of selecting a put option: a target price and a time frame. I just explained the fundamental case for a downside target of $50 in Tesla shares. And from a technical perspective, Tesla based at around $50 in the fourth quarter of 2019 before launching into a parabolic melt-up. The history of parabolic advances says that, when they end, the stock price often revisits the launch pad - which would bring Tesla back to around $50. Meanwhile, in order to give this trade plenty of time, I'm looking out to January 2022 as a rough time frame.\n\nSo this time frame gives a straight forward decision on the option expiration date of January 21, 2022. Meanwhile, in order to give the position plenty of room to be wrong and still pay off, I'll select a strike price of $300. There's a delicate balance when selecting strike prices - a lower strike would provide a higher return, but also come with a lower probability of pay off. As I'll show below, selecting a $300 strike price still provides the chance of earning a decent return even if my $50 downside target proves too aggressive.\nBut before considering the return potential, we have to know the price of the option. At the close of trading on Monday, the $300 strike Tesla put option expiring on January 21, 2022 traded for around $15.75, as shown below:\n\nGiven the 100-share multiplier, the $15.75 quoted price translates into a total cost of $1,575 (plus fees/commissions). With this information, we can determine the return potential of the option for a range of scenarios. In the case where Tesla closes at or above $300 by the expiration date, the option expires worthless, resulting in a 100% loss. Alternatively, if Tesla closes below $300, then the option gains $100 in value for every $1 below the $300 strike price. The table below summarizes this range of scenarios:\n(Note: for simplicity, I assume the option is held until just before the expiration date, and then closed out without exercising the contract).\nSo in the downside scenario outlined earlier, where Tesla trades down to $50 by the January 2022 expiration date, the option value grows from $1,650 to $25,000 - for a gain of about 1,400%. However, even if this downside target proves too aggressive, there's still scope to make a reasonable return. If shares only fall to, say $200, the option still returns roughly 500%.\nAs you can see, it only take a small allocation within an overall portfolio to gain substantial hedging exposure with a trade like this. Of course, recency bias might make $50 or even $200 per share seem outlandish for a stock trading near $850 today. But let's not forget that Tesla was within“single digit weeks” of bankruptcyas recently as 2018. And in May of 2019, topTesla analyst Adam Jonasdescribed the company as “a distressed credit and restructuring story”, with a $10 downside price target (or $2 pre-split).\nThe core business remains virtually unchanged from 2018 and 2019 - when terms like \"bankruptcy\" and \"restructuring\" were on the table. The only key difference is that Tesla now enjoys a positive net cash balance, which takes an immediate bankruptcy scenario off the table. But with less than $10 per share in net cash, this should provide little consolation for the bulls as a valuation floor.\nAll that really needs to happen is for Tesla to continue on its current path of losing money in its core business, and catastrophic downside is in store for the stock. And that's not just my opinion - Elon Musk himself fully recognizes this risk, as he noted in a recentemail to employees:\n\n Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer!\n\nGoing forward, my money's on the sledgehammer, not the soufflé.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312996792,"gmtCreate":1611986425516,"gmtModify":1703757305814,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312996792","repostId":"1130139919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130139919","pubTimestamp":1611908401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130139919?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-29 16:20","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Should You Buy GameStop? A Guide for the Uninitiated Investor","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130139919","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"You know hype can be dangerous. You know stock picking is risky, and you’re unlikely to beat the mar","content":"<p>You know hype can be dangerous. You know stock picking is risky, and you’re unlikely to beat the market consistently.</p><p>So you maxed out your 401(k) contributions, you bought some low-cost index funds. And you’re socking away cash for a rainy day.</p><p>And yet.</p><p>Wealth For YouHelp us deliver more relevant content for you by telling us about yourself. Answer 3 questions to tailor your experience.Get started</p><p>Your friends have been texting you about just one thing this week: GameStop Corp.Its share price has surged. Back in April, the brick-and-mortar video-game retailer was trading at $2.80. On Wednesday, it hit $380. Reddit is obsessed with it. Elon Musk tweeted about it.People are making some serious money off this single stock.</p><p>And it looks like this behavior could be repeated: Reddit posters are already searching for the next company to pounce on. Shares of AMC Entertainment, BlackBerry, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond and Expresshave soared, too.</p><p>It might be just enough to make you wonder: Am I missing something?</p><p>We polled financial advisers on both sides of the Atlantic and asked them that question. This is what they want you to know now right now:</p><p>Yes, You’re Smart. Don’t Let That Hurt You</p><p>With more time and cash than usual, many home-bound workers have started paying closer attention to markets. Many have been finding something surprising: they understand some pretty complex trading strategies.</p><p>Advisers caution that this doesn’t mean you should hop in.</p><p>“Just because you read an Investopedia article and you now know what a short squeeze is, there are enough other people out there who have also read that same article,” said Mike Caligiuri, founder and chief executive of Caligiuri Financial in New Albany, Ohio, describing one phenomenon behind GameStop’s performance this week.</p><p>Also read:&nbsp;What’s the $23 Billion GameStop Really Worth? Maybe $2 Billion</p><p>This collective knowledge has probably already increased shares to a peak, he said. “Eventually once they squeeze enough of these short sellers out, the opportunity for people to pile in and keep pushing up the share price is going to evaporate.”</p><p>You’re Not a Hedge Fund</p><p>One of the striking developments about this week’s Reddit wave was that GameStop boosters on social media effectively forced Melvin Capital, a $12.5 billion hedge fund, toback down from its short position on the stock—&nbsp;or its bet that shares of the video-game retailer will drop.</p><p>This might make you feel empowered to join in on the action. But advisers caution that one win for Reddit users is unlikely to translate into continuous, long-term gains for you.</p><p>“On the institutional side they’re all unified in their position and their rationale behind what they're doing,” said Dana Menard, the founder and CEO of Twin Cities Wealth Strategies Inc. Yet on a decentralized, digital community like Reddit, users will undoubtedly have myriad motives for boosting a stock, and your financial wellbeing is likely not one of them.</p><p>Large financial firms also have access to information individual investors just can’t get. Because of this, Menard says investors should be wary of stock boosters promoting their own research.</p><p>“While they’ve read about a couple indicators here or there, they certainly are not privy to the information that institutional investors have,” said Menard. “Unless these people are actually going into GameStop to interview the CEO and getting access to their books like institutional investors do, then it’s completely hearsay.”</p><p>You’re Probably Not Running for Governor of California</p><p>Yes, wealthy investors have recently revealed their stakes in GameStop, pumping the share price even more. Ryan Cohen, co-founder of Chewy Inc., is one of them. Chamath Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist and former Facebook Inc. executive, is another.</p><p>But they’re both billionaires. On Monday, Palihapitiya bothannounced he was running for governor of Californiaand invested in twoSPAC deals. Someone making those kinds of bets can likely afford to lose money on an investment.</p><p>Chances are your balance sheet looks a bit different. Menard encourages retail investors to think twice about any money they put in speculative shares, and only allocate what they can afford to lose completely.</p><p>That said, he recognizes that some investors may want to get in on the frenzy. And that’s fine, as long as it’s just a small portion of a portfolio.</p><p>“I call it their play money. What it does is it gives them the ability to be irrational, to have fun, to play around, to follow the trends, just to do it responsibly,” he said.</p><p>Patience Will Be Rewarded</p><p>Finally, the focus for any individual investors should be about their long-term investment goals and not headlines, said James McManus, chief investment officer of Nutmeg, an online investment-management firm based in London.</p><p>“Focusing on having patience rather than chasing the story of today, that holds true in down market as well as an up market,” he said, noting that historically investors have been rewarded for diversification, patience, and discipline.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$(SNDL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">$(NOK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$(BB)$</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a7716a22752d664a8d3df0796d86a29\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1334\"></p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy GameStop? A Guide for the Uninitiated Investor</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy GameStop? A Guide for the Uninitiated Investor\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-29 16:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/gamestop-gme-should-you-buy-hyped-reddit-stocks-amc-express-expr-bbby-bb><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You know hype can be dangerous. You know stock picking is risky, and you’re unlikely to beat the market consistently.So you maxed out your 401(k) contributions, you bought some low-cost index funds. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/gamestop-gme-should-you-buy-hyped-reddit-stocks-amc-express-expr-bbby-bb\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓","AMC":"AMC院线","BBBY":"3B家居","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/gamestop-gme-should-you-buy-hyped-reddit-stocks-amc-express-expr-bbby-bb","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130139919","content_text":"You know hype can be dangerous. You know stock picking is risky, and you’re unlikely to beat the market consistently.So you maxed out your 401(k) contributions, you bought some low-cost index funds. And you’re socking away cash for a rainy day.And yet.Wealth For YouHelp us deliver more relevant content for you by telling us about yourself. Answer 3 questions to tailor your experience.Get startedYour friends have been texting you about just one thing this week: GameStop Corp.Its share price has surged. Back in April, the brick-and-mortar video-game retailer was trading at $2.80. On Wednesday, it hit $380. Reddit is obsessed with it. Elon Musk tweeted about it.People are making some serious money off this single stock.And it looks like this behavior could be repeated: Reddit posters are already searching for the next company to pounce on. Shares of AMC Entertainment, BlackBerry, Bed Bath & Beyond and Expresshave soared, too.It might be just enough to make you wonder: Am I missing something?We polled financial advisers on both sides of the Atlantic and asked them that question. This is what they want you to know now right now:Yes, You’re Smart. Don’t Let That Hurt YouWith more time and cash than usual, many home-bound workers have started paying closer attention to markets. Many have been finding something surprising: they understand some pretty complex trading strategies.Advisers caution that this doesn’t mean you should hop in.“Just because you read an Investopedia article and you now know what a short squeeze is, there are enough other people out there who have also read that same article,” said Mike Caligiuri, founder and chief executive of Caligiuri Financial in New Albany, Ohio, describing one phenomenon behind GameStop’s performance this week.Also read: What’s the $23 Billion GameStop Really Worth? Maybe $2 BillionThis collective knowledge has probably already increased shares to a peak, he said. “Eventually once they squeeze enough of these short sellers out, the opportunity for people to pile in and keep pushing up the share price is going to evaporate.”You’re Not a Hedge FundOne of the striking developments about this week’s Reddit wave was that GameStop boosters on social media effectively forced Melvin Capital, a $12.5 billion hedge fund, toback down from its short position on the stock— or its bet that shares of the video-game retailer will drop.This might make you feel empowered to join in on the action. But advisers caution that one win for Reddit users is unlikely to translate into continuous, long-term gains for you.“On the institutional side they’re all unified in their position and their rationale behind what they're doing,” said Dana Menard, the founder and CEO of Twin Cities Wealth Strategies Inc. Yet on a decentralized, digital community like Reddit, users will undoubtedly have myriad motives for boosting a stock, and your financial wellbeing is likely not one of them.Large financial firms also have access to information individual investors just can’t get. Because of this, Menard says investors should be wary of stock boosters promoting their own research.“While they’ve read about a couple indicators here or there, they certainly are not privy to the information that institutional investors have,” said Menard. “Unless these people are actually going into GameStop to interview the CEO and getting access to their books like institutional investors do, then it’s completely hearsay.”You’re Probably Not Running for Governor of CaliforniaYes, wealthy investors have recently revealed their stakes in GameStop, pumping the share price even more. Ryan Cohen, co-founder of Chewy Inc., is one of them. Chamath Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist and former Facebook Inc. executive, is another.But they’re both billionaires. On Monday, Palihapitiya bothannounced he was running for governor of Californiaand invested in twoSPAC deals. Someone making those kinds of bets can likely afford to lose money on an investment.Chances are your balance sheet looks a bit different. Menard encourages retail investors to think twice about any money they put in speculative shares, and only allocate what they can afford to lose completely.That said, he recognizes that some investors may want to get in on the frenzy. And that’s fine, as long as it’s just a small portion of a portfolio.“I call it their play money. What it does is it gives them the ability to be irrational, to have fun, to play around, to follow the trends, just to do it responsibly,” he said.Patience Will Be RewardedFinally, the focus for any individual investors should be about their long-term investment goals and not headlines, said James McManus, chief investment officer of Nutmeg, an online investment-management firm based in London.“Focusing on having patience rather than chasing the story of today, that holds true in down market as well as an up market,” he said, noting that historically investors have been rewarded for diversification, patience, and discipline.$(GME)$$(AMC)$$(SNDL)$$(NOK)$$(BB)$","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159219960,"gmtCreate":1624969501950,"gmtModify":1631890002871,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","listText":"Let’s go to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","text":"Let’s go to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159219960","repostId":"1128482198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128482198","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624968506,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128482198?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128482198","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. futures drift after tech drives U.S. gauges to records\n\n\nTreasuries steady; oil dips as gold he","content":"<ul>\n <li>U.S. futures drift after tech drives U.S. gauges to records</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>Treasuries steady; oil dips as gold heads for monthly drop</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Stocks were mixed and U.S. futures fluctuated on Tuesday as concerns over a highly infectious Covid-19 strain spurred caution among investors. The dollar strengthened.</p>\n<p>At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 3 points, or 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 24.50 points, or 0.17%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935accd8480c3f8c58f58577a4c7c3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley&nbsp;jumped 3.2% in premarket trading, leading gains among the big lenders after saying it would double its dividend to 70 cents per share in the third quarter.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co&nbsp;and Goldman Sachs Group(GS.N)gained 0.2% and 1.1%, as they hiked their capital payouts after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave them a clean bill of health following their annual \"stress tests\" last week.</p>\n<p>A reading of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, set to be release at 10 a.m. ET, is expected to rise to 119 this month after steadying in May.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p>\n<p><b>Big banks</b> –Goldman Sachs(GS),Bank of America(BAC),Morgan Stanley(MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM) and&nbsp;Wells Fargo(WFC) all announced dividend increases after passing the Fed’s latest stress tests. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo bothdoubled their dividends, whileCitigroup(C) was the only one of the six largest banks to keep its dividend unchanged. Morgan Stanley rose 3.2% in the premarket, with Goldman up 1.1%.</p>\n<p><b>Facebook&nbsp;(FB)</b> – Facebook remains on watch after a late Monday jump which saw itsurge past the $1 trillion markin market value. That followed a court decision thatdismissed both federal and state antitrust complaintsagainst the social media giant.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA)</b> – UBS cut its price target on Tesla shares to $660 from $730, while maintaining a “neutral” rating, noting increasing competition as well as operational delays.</p>\n<p><b>Boeing&nbsp;(BA)</b> – Boeingwon a 200 jet orderfromUnited Airlines(UAL), which also ordered 70 Airbus jets as it modernizes its fleet. United will buy a variety of Max jets from Boeing and A321neo models from Airbus.</p>\n<p><b>FactSet&nbsp;(FDS)</b> – The financial information company earned $2.72 per share for its fiscal third quarter, 3 cents a share shy of estimates. Revenue came in above Wall Street forecasts. FactSet expects earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share for the fiscal year ending in August, compared to a current consensus estimate of $11.14 a share.</p>\n<p><b>Herman Miller&nbsp;(MLHR)</b> – Herman Miller reported quarterly profit of 56 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate of 39 cents a share. The office furniture maker’s revenue came in above estimates as well. Herman Miller gave a lower-than-expected earnings forecast, however, and its shares fell 1.7% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>Jefferies Financial&nbsp;(JEF)</b> – Jefferies beat Wall Street forecasts for both profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and the financial services firm also announced a 25% dividend increase. Jefferies rallied 3.3% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>XPO Logistics&nbsp;(XPO)</b> – XPO announced that its public offering of 5 million common shares was priced at $138 per share, compared to Monday’s close of $140.61. The transportation and logistics company plans to use the funds to pay down debt and for general corporate purposes. XPO fell 1.5% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>Herbalife Nutrition&nbsp;(HLF)</b> – Herbalife was rated “buy” in new coverage at B Riley Securities, with a price target of $70 per share. The nutritional products maker’s stock closed at $53.34 on Monday. B Riley notes Herbalife’s global leadership in weight management supplements as an increasing presence in the sports/fitness category.</p>\n<p><b>General Electric&nbsp;(GE)</b> – Goldman Sachs named the stock a “top idea,” based in part on an upbeat view of GE’s cash flow prospects as the industrials sector recovers. Goldman rates GE “buy” with a price target of $16 compared to Monday’s close of $12.89. GE rose 1% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>Textron&nbsp;(TXT)</b> – Textron was upgraded to “overweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, based on a rebound in the use of business jets as well as the prospects for electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles.</p>\n<p><b>FedEx&nbsp;(FDX)</b> – Bank of America Securities added FedEx to its “US1” list of top picks, while maintaining a “buy” rating. BofA sees significant tailwinds for FedEx including increased pricing power, and notes that the stock is at the low end of its historical trading range.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-29 20:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>U.S. futures drift after tech drives U.S. gauges to records</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>Treasuries steady; oil dips as gold heads for monthly drop</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Stocks were mixed and U.S. futures fluctuated on Tuesday as concerns over a highly infectious Covid-19 strain spurred caution among investors. The dollar strengthened.</p>\n<p>At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 3 points, or 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 24.50 points, or 0.17%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935accd8480c3f8c58f58577a4c7c3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley&nbsp;jumped 3.2% in premarket trading, leading gains among the big lenders after saying it would double its dividend to 70 cents per share in the third quarter.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co&nbsp;and Goldman Sachs Group(GS.N)gained 0.2% and 1.1%, as they hiked their capital payouts after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave them a clean bill of health following their annual \"stress tests\" last week.</p>\n<p>A reading of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, set to be release at 10 a.m. ET, is expected to rise to 119 this month after steadying in May.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p>\n<p><b>Big banks</b> –Goldman Sachs(GS),Bank of America(BAC),Morgan Stanley(MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM) and&nbsp;Wells Fargo(WFC) all announced dividend increases after passing the Fed’s latest stress tests. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo bothdoubled their dividends, whileCitigroup(C) was the only one of the six largest banks to keep its dividend unchanged. Morgan Stanley rose 3.2% in the premarket, with Goldman up 1.1%.</p>\n<p><b>Facebook&nbsp;(FB)</b> – Facebook remains on watch after a late Monday jump which saw itsurge past the $1 trillion markin market value. That followed a court decision thatdismissed both federal and state antitrust complaintsagainst the social media giant.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA)</b> – UBS cut its price target on Tesla shares to $660 from $730, while maintaining a “neutral” rating, noting increasing competition as well as operational delays.</p>\n<p><b>Boeing&nbsp;(BA)</b> – Boeingwon a 200 jet orderfromUnited Airlines(UAL), which also ordered 70 Airbus jets as it modernizes its fleet. United will buy a variety of Max jets from Boeing and A321neo models from Airbus.</p>\n<p><b>FactSet&nbsp;(FDS)</b> – The financial information company earned $2.72 per share for its fiscal third quarter, 3 cents a share shy of estimates. Revenue came in above Wall Street forecasts. FactSet expects earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share for the fiscal year ending in August, compared to a current consensus estimate of $11.14 a share.</p>\n<p><b>Herman Miller&nbsp;(MLHR)</b> – Herman Miller reported quarterly profit of 56 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate of 39 cents a share. The office furniture maker’s revenue came in above estimates as well. Herman Miller gave a lower-than-expected earnings forecast, however, and its shares fell 1.7% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>Jefferies Financial&nbsp;(JEF)</b> – Jefferies beat Wall Street forecasts for both profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and the financial services firm also announced a 25% dividend increase. Jefferies rallied 3.3% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>XPO Logistics&nbsp;(XPO)</b> – XPO announced that its public offering of 5 million common shares was priced at $138 per share, compared to Monday’s close of $140.61. The transportation and logistics company plans to use the funds to pay down debt and for general corporate purposes. XPO fell 1.5% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>Herbalife Nutrition&nbsp;(HLF)</b> – Herbalife was rated “buy” in new coverage at B Riley Securities, with a price target of $70 per share. The nutritional products maker’s stock closed at $53.34 on Monday. B Riley notes Herbalife’s global leadership in weight management supplements as an increasing presence in the sports/fitness category.</p>\n<p><b>General Electric&nbsp;(GE)</b> – Goldman Sachs named the stock a “top idea,” based in part on an upbeat view of GE’s cash flow prospects as the industrials sector recovers. Goldman rates GE “buy” with a price target of $16 compared to Monday’s close of $12.89. GE rose 1% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>Textron&nbsp;(TXT)</b> – Textron was upgraded to “overweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, based on a rebound in the use of business jets as well as the prospects for electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles.</p>\n<p><b>FedEx&nbsp;(FDX)</b> – Bank of America Securities added FedEx to its “US1” list of top picks, while maintaining a “buy” rating. BofA sees significant tailwinds for FedEx including increased pricing power, and notes that the stock is at the low end of its historical trading range.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","WFC":"富国银行","GE":"GE航空航天","BA":"波音","TSLA":"特斯拉",".DJI":"道琼斯","MS":"摩根士丹利",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128482198","content_text":"U.S. futures drift after tech drives U.S. gauges to records\n\n\nTreasuries steady; oil dips as gold heads for monthly drop\n\nStocks were mixed and U.S. futures fluctuated on Tuesday as concerns over a highly infectious Covid-19 strain spurred caution among investors. The dollar strengthened.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 3 points, or 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 24.50 points, or 0.17%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nMorgan Stanley jumped 3.2% in premarket trading, leading gains among the big lenders after saying it would double its dividend to 70 cents per share in the third quarter.\nJPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group(GS.N)gained 0.2% and 1.1%, as they hiked their capital payouts after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave them a clean bill of health following their annual \"stress tests\" last week.\nA reading of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, set to be release at 10 a.m. ET, is expected to rise to 119 this month after steadying in May.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nBig banks –Goldman Sachs(GS),Bank of America(BAC),Morgan Stanley(MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM) and Wells Fargo(WFC) all announced dividend increases after passing the Fed’s latest stress tests. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo bothdoubled their dividends, whileCitigroup(C) was the only one of the six largest banks to keep its dividend unchanged. Morgan Stanley rose 3.2% in the premarket, with Goldman up 1.1%.\nFacebook (FB) – Facebook remains on watch after a late Monday jump which saw itsurge past the $1 trillion markin market value. That followed a court decision thatdismissed both federal and state antitrust complaintsagainst the social media giant.\nTesla (TSLA) – UBS cut its price target on Tesla shares to $660 from $730, while maintaining a “neutral” rating, noting increasing competition as well as operational delays.\nBoeing (BA) – Boeingwon a 200 jet orderfromUnited Airlines(UAL), which also ordered 70 Airbus jets as it modernizes its fleet. United will buy a variety of Max jets from Boeing and A321neo models from Airbus.\nFactSet (FDS) – The financial information company earned $2.72 per share for its fiscal third quarter, 3 cents a share shy of estimates. Revenue came in above Wall Street forecasts. FactSet expects earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share for the fiscal year ending in August, compared to a current consensus estimate of $11.14 a share.\nHerman Miller (MLHR) – Herman Miller reported quarterly profit of 56 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate of 39 cents a share. The office furniture maker’s revenue came in above estimates as well. Herman Miller gave a lower-than-expected earnings forecast, however, and its shares fell 1.7% in the premarket.\nJefferies Financial (JEF) – Jefferies beat Wall Street forecasts for both profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and the financial services firm also announced a 25% dividend increase. Jefferies rallied 3.3% in premarket trading.\nXPO Logistics (XPO) – XPO announced that its public offering of 5 million common shares was priced at $138 per share, compared to Monday’s close of $140.61. The transportation and logistics company plans to use the funds to pay down debt and for general corporate purposes. XPO fell 1.5% in the premarket.\nHerbalife Nutrition (HLF) – Herbalife was rated “buy” in new coverage at B Riley Securities, with a price target of $70 per share. The nutritional products maker’s stock closed at $53.34 on Monday. B Riley notes Herbalife’s global leadership in weight management supplements as an increasing presence in the sports/fitness category.\nGeneral Electric (GE) – Goldman Sachs named the stock a “top idea,” based in part on an upbeat view of GE’s cash flow prospects as the industrials sector recovers. Goldman rates GE “buy” with a price target of $16 compared to Monday’s close of $12.89. GE rose 1% in premarket trading.\nTextron (TXT) – Textron was upgraded to “overweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, based on a rebound in the use of business jets as well as the prospects for electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles.\nFedEx (FDX) – Bank of America Securities added FedEx to its “US1” list of top picks, while maintaining a “buy” rating. BofA sees significant tailwinds for FedEx including increased pricing power, and notes that the stock is at the low end of its historical trading range.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104323352,"gmtCreate":1620357312676,"gmtModify":1631891365942,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go","listText":"Let’s go","text":"Let’s go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104323352","repostId":"1137949521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137949521","pubTimestamp":1620356202,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137949521?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Top Fintech Stocks To Watch After PayPal Reported Record Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137949521","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"PayPal’s Strong Earnings Show That The Growth For Fintech Stocks Is Far From OverWhile many of the h","content":"<p>PayPal’s Strong Earnings Show That The Growth For Fintech Stocks Is Far From Over</p><p>While many of the hypergrowth names from 2020 continue to slide along with the recent tech rout,<i>fintech stocks</i>remain relatively resilient in the<b><i>stock market today</i></b>. Understandably, this is because of the vital role these companies have played over the past year. Amidst the current pandemic, the adoption of digital payments has and continues to accelerate at breakneck speeds. One doesn’t need to look far to see the impact of fintech on their life. From online payment for goods and services, sending money to trading stocks online, all can be done from your palm.</p><p>It was because of these reasons we could carry out our life with minimal disruptions. Merchants have been relying on fintech providers to keep their business going. For instance,<b>PayPal</b>(NASDAQ: PYPL) is a fintech ecosystem that provides everything a business or individual would need in the cashless world. The fintech giant reported its strongest quarter on record and beat Wall Streets’ estimates on Wednesday. The digital payments company processed a total of $285 billion in payments in the first quarter, up 50% year-over-year. Besides, it also added 14.5 million net new active customers.</p><p>Furthermore, another growing trend in the overall fintech space now would be cryptocurrencies. Venmo, the mobile wallet owned by PayPal, also allows customers to buy and sell cryptocurrencies likeBitcoinand Ethereum. With digital payments expected to be the norm in the future, it is not surprising investors have been looking for top fintech stocks to buy in thestock market. Be it the continuing innovation in fintech services or major adoption of cryptocurrencies, these trends are what many deem as the future of finance. If you are optimistic about what this sector has to offer, let’s look at fourtop fintech stocksto consider buying with plenty of growth opportunities ahead.</p><p>Best Fintech Stocks To Watch Right Now</p><ul><li><b>Square Inc.</b>(NYSE: SQ)</li><li><b>Paysafe Ltd</b>(NYSE: PSFE)</li><li><b>MercadoLibre Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: MELI)</li><li><b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE: SE)</li></ul><p>Square</p><p>Square is a financial services, merchant services aggregator, and mobile payment company that is based in San Francisco. The fintech giant operates two fintech ecosystems, one of which provides a commerce ecosystem that enables its sellers to start, run, and grow their businesses. But what’s sending Square stock over the roof is its Cash App, a growing segment for the company. This is unsurprising given how at the onset of the pandemic, there has been a steady increase in cashless adoption rates and contactless payments.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d08585cb725b55710b6b0fc1511f0e7\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">If anything, the pandemic had accelerated this shift to digital payments. From its last quarterly report in February, Square reported a quarterly gross profit of $804 million, up by 52% year-over-year. The company’s Cash App delivered strong growth, with a gross profit of $377 million, a staggering 162% year-over-year increase.</p><p>We saw that PayPal has reported its strongest quarter in history. It is natural that investors will be looking at SQ stock today as it will report its earnings after the closing bell today. Considering the accelerating adoption of fintech, will you consider buying SQ stock right now?</p><p>Paysafe</p><p>Paysafe is a leading specialized payments platform. Its core purpose is to enable businesses and consumers to connect and transact seamlessly. Particularly, the company specializes in payment processing, digital wallet, and online cash solutions. But Paysafe isn’t the same company as PayPal or Square. Rather, it’s primarily a payment processor. With over 20 years of online payment experience, the company boasts an annualized transactional volume of $92 billion in 2020.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8088f25bcf21646b7f801bd78c494fb\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">You might have come across Paysafe as a pioneer in digital commerce. That’s right, but there’s another angle that could contribute more value to the company’s business. And it is the company’s involvement in iGaming that has growth investors salivating. In fact, Paysafe is the exclusive online payment processor for DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG).</p><p>Should Paysafe be successful in growing its iGaming market, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a multi-bagger investment in the making. With the company’s impressive global reach, would you say that now is the right time to be one of the early investors before PSFE stock takes off?</p><p>MercadoLibre</p><p>MercadoLibre is the undisputed leader of e-commerce in the Latin American market. But there is also a high growth opportunity in the fintech segment of the company. If you have heard of this company, chances are you know it has a payment system by the name of Mercado Pago. And this is the Latin American answer to PayPal and Square. More importantly, this payment system has brought impressive results to the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b9980ac72bd6644243183a27df8474\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the company’s first-quarter results released on May 5, net revenue came in 158.4% higher year-over-year to $1.4 billion on a constant currency basis. Total payment transactions through Mercado Pago reached $14.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 81.8% and 129.2% on a constant currency basis. Total payment transactions rose 116.7% from a year ago, totaling 630.1 million transactions for the quarter.</p><p>With its leading position in both e-commerce and digital payments in its geographies, MercadoLibre certainly has a lot going for it. With the rising affluence in the countries that the company operates, is MELI stock a buy and hold for the decades to come?</p><p>Sea Ltd</p><p>Similar to MercadoLibre, Sea Ltd. core services consist of e-commerce, digital financial service, and digital entertainment. Sea Ltd gives investors exposure to the fast-growing e-commerce market in Southeast Asia. In particular, our focus today will be on SeaMoney, the leading digital payment and financial service provider in the region. This paired with its massive Shopee e-commerce platform has positioned Sea Limited to benefit from current online shopping trends. The company is slated to report earnings on May 18 before the opening bells.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb1277cbae57d0ba3a726157d2de65e\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It’s worth mentioning that the company’s digital wallet business has partnered with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), in which SeaMoney will be among the payment options for Google Play Store in Indonesia. The company has already partnered with Google in Thailand. With fast-growing economies and a big addressable market in Southeast Asia, the growth outlook seems robust.</p><p>Sure, the company’s e-commerce and digital financial services are yet to be profitable. And that’s okay considering the company is still at a growth stage. With all that in mind, would you bet on SE stock right now before the e-commerce and digital wallet segments start delivering positive earnings?</p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Top Fintech Stocks To Watch After PayPal Reported Record Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Top Fintech Stocks To Watch After PayPal Reported Record Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 10:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-top-fintech-stocks-to-watch-after-paypal-reported-record-earnings-2021-05-06><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>PayPal’s Strong Earnings Show That The Growth For Fintech Stocks Is Far From OverWhile many of the hypergrowth names from 2020 continue to slide along with the recent tech rout,fintech stocksremain ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-top-fintech-stocks-to-watch-after-paypal-reported-record-earnings-2021-05-06\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PSFE":"Paysafe Ltd","MELI":"MercadoLibre","SE":"Sea Ltd","SQ":"Block"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-top-fintech-stocks-to-watch-after-paypal-reported-record-earnings-2021-05-06","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137949521","content_text":"PayPal’s Strong Earnings Show That The Growth For Fintech Stocks Is Far From OverWhile many of the hypergrowth names from 2020 continue to slide along with the recent tech rout,fintech stocksremain relatively resilient in thestock market today. Understandably, this is because of the vital role these companies have played over the past year. Amidst the current pandemic, the adoption of digital payments has and continues to accelerate at breakneck speeds. One doesn’t need to look far to see the impact of fintech on their life. From online payment for goods and services, sending money to trading stocks online, all can be done from your palm.It was because of these reasons we could carry out our life with minimal disruptions. Merchants have been relying on fintech providers to keep their business going. For instance,PayPal(NASDAQ: PYPL) is a fintech ecosystem that provides everything a business or individual would need in the cashless world. The fintech giant reported its strongest quarter on record and beat Wall Streets’ estimates on Wednesday. The digital payments company processed a total of $285 billion in payments in the first quarter, up 50% year-over-year. Besides, it also added 14.5 million net new active customers.Furthermore, another growing trend in the overall fintech space now would be cryptocurrencies. Venmo, the mobile wallet owned by PayPal, also allows customers to buy and sell cryptocurrencies likeBitcoinand Ethereum. With digital payments expected to be the norm in the future, it is not surprising investors have been looking for top fintech stocks to buy in thestock market. Be it the continuing innovation in fintech services or major adoption of cryptocurrencies, these trends are what many deem as the future of finance. If you are optimistic about what this sector has to offer, let’s look at fourtop fintech stocksto consider buying with plenty of growth opportunities ahead.Best Fintech Stocks To Watch Right NowSquare Inc.(NYSE: SQ)Paysafe Ltd(NYSE: PSFE)MercadoLibre Inc.(NASDAQ: MELI)Sea Limited(NYSE: SE)SquareSquare is a financial services, merchant services aggregator, and mobile payment company that is based in San Francisco. The fintech giant operates two fintech ecosystems, one of which provides a commerce ecosystem that enables its sellers to start, run, and grow their businesses. But what’s sending Square stock over the roof is its Cash App, a growing segment for the company. This is unsurprising given how at the onset of the pandemic, there has been a steady increase in cashless adoption rates and contactless payments.If anything, the pandemic had accelerated this shift to digital payments. From its last quarterly report in February, Square reported a quarterly gross profit of $804 million, up by 52% year-over-year. The company’s Cash App delivered strong growth, with a gross profit of $377 million, a staggering 162% year-over-year increase.We saw that PayPal has reported its strongest quarter in history. It is natural that investors will be looking at SQ stock today as it will report its earnings after the closing bell today. Considering the accelerating adoption of fintech, will you consider buying SQ stock right now?PaysafePaysafe is a leading specialized payments platform. Its core purpose is to enable businesses and consumers to connect and transact seamlessly. Particularly, the company specializes in payment processing, digital wallet, and online cash solutions. But Paysafe isn’t the same company as PayPal or Square. Rather, it’s primarily a payment processor. With over 20 years of online payment experience, the company boasts an annualized transactional volume of $92 billion in 2020.You might have come across Paysafe as a pioneer in digital commerce. That’s right, but there’s another angle that could contribute more value to the company’s business. And it is the company’s involvement in iGaming that has growth investors salivating. In fact, Paysafe is the exclusive online payment processor for DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG).Should Paysafe be successful in growing its iGaming market, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a multi-bagger investment in the making. With the company’s impressive global reach, would you say that now is the right time to be one of the early investors before PSFE stock takes off?MercadoLibreMercadoLibre is the undisputed leader of e-commerce in the Latin American market. But there is also a high growth opportunity in the fintech segment of the company. If you have heard of this company, chances are you know it has a payment system by the name of Mercado Pago. And this is the Latin American answer to PayPal and Square. More importantly, this payment system has brought impressive results to the company.From the company’s first-quarter results released on May 5, net revenue came in 158.4% higher year-over-year to $1.4 billion on a constant currency basis. Total payment transactions through Mercado Pago reached $14.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 81.8% and 129.2% on a constant currency basis. Total payment transactions rose 116.7% from a year ago, totaling 630.1 million transactions for the quarter.With its leading position in both e-commerce and digital payments in its geographies, MercadoLibre certainly has a lot going for it. With the rising affluence in the countries that the company operates, is MELI stock a buy and hold for the decades to come?Sea LtdSimilar to MercadoLibre, Sea Ltd. core services consist of e-commerce, digital financial service, and digital entertainment. Sea Ltd gives investors exposure to the fast-growing e-commerce market in Southeast Asia. In particular, our focus today will be on SeaMoney, the leading digital payment and financial service provider in the region. This paired with its massive Shopee e-commerce platform has positioned Sea Limited to benefit from current online shopping trends. The company is slated to report earnings on May 18 before the opening bells.It’s worth mentioning that the company’s digital wallet business has partnered with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), in which SeaMoney will be among the payment options for Google Play Store in Indonesia. The company has already partnered with Google in Thailand. With fast-growing economies and a big addressable market in Southeast Asia, the growth outlook seems robust.Sure, the company’s e-commerce and digital financial services are yet to be profitable. And that’s okay considering the company is still at a growth stage. With all that in mind, would you bet on SE stock right now before the e-commerce and digital wallet segments start delivering positive earnings?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104329542,"gmtCreate":1620357282186,"gmtModify":1631891365945,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The only way is up now","listText":"The only way is up now","text":"The only way is up now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104329542","repostId":"1186778449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186778449","pubTimestamp":1620341777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186778449?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow closes at record high after upbeat jobless claims report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186778449","media":"Reuters","summary":"The Dow Jones Industrial Averageclosed at a record high on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat weekly jobless claims report, while shares of vaccine makers dipped after U.S. President Joe Biden backed plans to waive patents on COVID-19 shots.Lifted by $Apple$ Inc, the S&P 500 rose after a Labor Department report showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 498,000 for the week ended May 1, compared with 590,000 in the prior week.$Investors$ were awaiting a mor","content":"<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)closed at a record high on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat weekly jobless claims report, while shares of vaccine makers dipped after U.S. President Joe Biden backed plans to waive patents on COVID-19 shots.</p><p>Lifted by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc(AAPL.O), the S&amp;P 500 rose after a Labor Department report showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 498,000 for the week ended May 1, compared with 590,000 in the prior week.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> were awaiting a more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday for clues on the strength of the labor market and potentially the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy.</p><p>\"Investors are encouraged by the low-interest rates and the stimulus that the government is putting into the economy. We're also seeing substantial increases in economic projections and earnings forecasts,\" said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.</p><p>Pharmaceutical companies dropped after the White House said Biden made the decision to back a proposed waiver for COVID-19 vaccine intellectual property rights.</p><p>Shares in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a> Inc(PFE.N), Moderna Inc(MRNA.O)and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a> Inc(NVAX.O), all involved in the making of COVID-19 vaccines, fell. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00179\">Johnson</a> &amp; Johnson(JNJ.N)was near unchanged.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 healthcare sector index(.SPXHC)slipped, while the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> biotechnology index &lt;.NBI&gt; also dropped.</p><p>Moderna's shares cut some losses after it said countries around the globe would continue buying its COVID-19 vaccine for years even if patents on the shots are waived.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financials index(.SPSY)was among the top performers.</p><p>\"One sector we are seeing a lot of opportunities in is the financial sector. We see it as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> that should benefit from higher interest rates and a stronger economic recovery,\" said Ann Guntli, portfolio manager at Chicago-based RMB Capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp(MSFT.O), Apple(AAPL.O)and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> Incwere up under 1% for most of the session.</p><p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 0.92% to end at 34,545.11 points, while the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 0.82% to 4,201.58.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)climbed 0.37% to 13,632.84.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a> Wholesale(COST.O)jumped after the retailer said late on Wednesday that its April sales surged 33.5%. That rally helped push the S&amp;P 500 consumers staple index higher.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a> Inc(REGN.O)rose after the drugmaker reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit and said it expected demand for its COVID-19 antibody therapy to hold up.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a> Technologies Inc(UBER.N)tumbled after it signaled it would pay drivers more to get cars back on the road as the pandemic recedes, and disclosed a $600 million charge to provide UK drivers with benefits.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123939866\" target=\"_blank\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> gets a bitcoin boost with revenue up 266%</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159007289\" target=\"_blank\">Beyond Meat swings to a loss as grocery sales growth slows</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1170281328\" target=\"_blank\">Roku Q1 Active Account Growth Slows, Revenue Booms 79%</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1131126697\" target=\"_blank\">Peloton Crushes Forecasts But Cuts <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GUID\">Guidance</a> Amid Treadmill Recall</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2133576548\" target=\"_blank\">AMC Chain Posts $567.2 Million Loss as Film Fans Trickle Back</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow closes at record high after upbeat jobless claims report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow closes at record high after upbeat jobless claims report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 06:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/business/dow-closes-record-high-after-upbeat-jobless-claims-report-2021-05-06/><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)closed at a record high on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat weekly jobless claims report, while shares of vaccine makers dipped after U.S. President Joe Biden ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/dow-closes-record-high-after-upbeat-jobless-claims-report-2021-05-06/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc","MSFT":"微软",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","REGN":"再生元制药公司",".DJI":"道琼斯","JNJ":"强生","AAPL":"苹果",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQ":"Block","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","UBER":"优步","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","PFE":"辉瑞","COST":"好市多"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/dow-closes-record-high-after-upbeat-jobless-claims-report-2021-05-06/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186778449","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)closed at a record high on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat weekly jobless claims report, while shares of vaccine makers dipped after U.S. President Joe Biden backed plans to waive patents on COVID-19 shots.Lifted by Apple Inc(AAPL.O), the S&P 500 rose after a Labor Department report showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 498,000 for the week ended May 1, compared with 590,000 in the prior week.Investors were awaiting a more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday for clues on the strength of the labor market and potentially the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy.\"Investors are encouraged by the low-interest rates and the stimulus that the government is putting into the economy. We're also seeing substantial increases in economic projections and earnings forecasts,\" said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.Pharmaceutical companies dropped after the White House said Biden made the decision to back a proposed waiver for COVID-19 vaccine intellectual property rights.Shares in Pfizer Inc(PFE.N), Moderna Inc(MRNA.O)and Novavax Inc(NVAX.O), all involved in the making of COVID-19 vaccines, fell. Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.N)was near unchanged.The S&P 500 healthcare sector index(.SPXHC)slipped, while the Nasdaq biotechnology index <.NBI> also dropped.Moderna's shares cut some losses after it said countries around the globe would continue buying its COVID-19 vaccine for years even if patents on the shots are waived.The S&P 500 financials index(.SPSY)was among the top performers.\"One sector we are seeing a lot of opportunities in is the financial sector. We see it as one that should benefit from higher interest rates and a stronger economic recovery,\" said Ann Guntli, portfolio manager at Chicago-based RMB Capital.Microsoft Corp(MSFT.O), Apple(AAPL.O)and Amazon.com Incwere up under 1% for most of the session.Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 0.92% to end at 34,545.11 points, while the S&P 500(.SPX)gained 0.82% to 4,201.58.The Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)climbed 0.37% to 13,632.84.Costco Wholesale(COST.O)jumped after the retailer said late on Wednesday that its April sales surged 33.5%. That rally helped push the S&P 500 consumers staple index higher.Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc(REGN.O)rose after the drugmaker reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit and said it expected demand for its COVID-19 antibody therapy to hold up.Uber Technologies Inc(UBER.N)tumbled after it signaled it would pay drivers more to get cars back on the road as the pandemic recedes, and disclosed a $600 million charge to provide UK drivers with benefits.Square gets a bitcoin boost with revenue up 266%Beyond Meat swings to a loss as grocery sales growth slowsRoku Q1 Active Account Growth Slows, Revenue Booms 79%Peloton Crushes Forecasts But Cuts Guidance Amid Treadmill RecallAMC Chain Posts $567.2 Million Loss as Film Fans Trickle Back","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345964717,"gmtCreate":1618273365439,"gmtModify":1631891365948,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment?","listText":"Comment?","text":"Comment?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345964717","repostId":"2126060329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126060329","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1618241700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2126060329?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 23:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stocks edge back to kick off earnings week as Powell says U.S. economy at 'inflection point'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126060329","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday at the start of a week that will see the unofficial start o","content":"<p>U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday at the start of a week that will see the unofficial start of first-quarter earnings, headlined by some of the nation's largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$(JPM)$</a> and Goldman Sachs Group<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$(GS)$</a>.</p>\n<p>Market participants were also weighing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke during a \"60 Minutes\" interview that aired on Sunday.</p>\n<p><b>How are stock benchmarks performing?</b></p>\n<p>On Friday , the S&amp;P 500 booked a 2.7% weekly gain, the Dow rose 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite logged a 3.1% weekly rise. The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow booked their third straight weekly gain, while the Nasdaq has climbed for two weeks in a row.</p>\n<p><b>What's driving the market?</b></p>\n<p>On Sunday, Powell said that the economy is going to start growing strongly in the second half of the year, but emphasized that that rebound shouldn't lead anyone to believe that the central bank would dial up interest rates in 2021.</p>\n<p>\"I think it's unlikely that we would raise rates anything like this year,\" Powell said during the \"60 minutes\" interview which was taped at the Fed's headquarters on Wednesday and aired Sunday evening.</p>\n<p>The Fed chief said the economy \"seems to be at an inflection point,\" with strong growth coming \"right now\" and the weakness caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the rearview mirror.</p>\n<p>Powell's comments come as Wall Street is positioning for the start of first-quarter corporate results, which could offer further clues about whether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the market's biggest fears is coming to fruition: a too-hot economy and surge in inflation that compels policy makers to substantially raise rates and dial back accommodative policies sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>So far, Fed officials have said they expect a rise in inflation to be transitory and have repeatedly stated that they would be focused on ensuring that the labor market makes a full recovery before considering easing policy.</p>\n<p>As earnings season kicks off, \"I'm waiting to see how the market reacts,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist for Truist Advisory Services. \"A lot has been priced in and the market is looking for earnings to confirm that that's the correct move. The hurdle rate for positive surprises has moved up.\"</p>\n<p>Lerner thinks the Fed will remain \"supportive\" and even if bond yields rise, the market should absorb the next leg higher as long as it isn't too steep.</p>\n<p>\"We've had a very gradual, but steady, low-volatility move to new highs,\" Lerner said in an interview. \"I still think the primary market trend is higher, but as we head into earnings, I suspect we start trading a little more rangebound. When the primary trend is higher, you don't want to worry about the hiccups.\"</p>\n<p>Some strategists fear, however, that stock valuations remain elevated despite uncertainties that include inflation and the tax regime.</p>\n<p>Stocks mostly ended at records last week and the Nasdaq Composite, after falling into correction in March --defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak--stands less than 2% from its Feb. 12 all-time closing high. Gains for equity benchmarks have come despite concerns about out-of-control inflation and the possibility that President Joe Biden will raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% to help fund his $2.4 trillion infrastructure proposal.</p>\n<p>\"The investment community is too upbeat in our opinion, not showing any concern for plausible tax increases being proposed by the Biden administration,\" wrote Citigroup research analysts, Tobias Levkovich, Lorraine Schmitt and Jennifer Stahmer, in a research note dated April 7.</p>\n<p>\"Indeed, all developments are perceived as positive news. Yet, such <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-sided views are not usually a good starting point,\" the Citi researchers wrote.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Germany was preparing new COVID-inspired legislation which would enable the eurozone's largest economy to impose national restrictions without regional government approval. England, meanwhile, reopened pubs for outdoor drinking, and hairdressers.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks edge back to kick off earnings week as Powell says U.S. economy at 'inflection point'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks edge back to kick off earnings week as Powell says U.S. economy at 'inflection point'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-12 23:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday at the start of a week that will see the unofficial start of first-quarter earnings, headlined by some of the nation's largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$(JPM)$</a> and Goldman Sachs Group<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$(GS)$</a>.</p>\n<p>Market participants were also weighing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke during a \"60 Minutes\" interview that aired on Sunday.</p>\n<p><b>How are stock benchmarks performing?</b></p>\n<p>On Friday , the S&amp;P 500 booked a 2.7% weekly gain, the Dow rose 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite logged a 3.1% weekly rise. The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow booked their third straight weekly gain, while the Nasdaq has climbed for two weeks in a row.</p>\n<p><b>What's driving the market?</b></p>\n<p>On Sunday, Powell said that the economy is going to start growing strongly in the second half of the year, but emphasized that that rebound shouldn't lead anyone to believe that the central bank would dial up interest rates in 2021.</p>\n<p>\"I think it's unlikely that we would raise rates anything like this year,\" Powell said during the \"60 minutes\" interview which was taped at the Fed's headquarters on Wednesday and aired Sunday evening.</p>\n<p>The Fed chief said the economy \"seems to be at an inflection point,\" with strong growth coming \"right now\" and the weakness caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the rearview mirror.</p>\n<p>Powell's comments come as Wall Street is positioning for the start of first-quarter corporate results, which could offer further clues about whether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the market's biggest fears is coming to fruition: a too-hot economy and surge in inflation that compels policy makers to substantially raise rates and dial back accommodative policies sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>So far, Fed officials have said they expect a rise in inflation to be transitory and have repeatedly stated that they would be focused on ensuring that the labor market makes a full recovery before considering easing policy.</p>\n<p>As earnings season kicks off, \"I'm waiting to see how the market reacts,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist for Truist Advisory Services. \"A lot has been priced in and the market is looking for earnings to confirm that that's the correct move. The hurdle rate for positive surprises has moved up.\"</p>\n<p>Lerner thinks the Fed will remain \"supportive\" and even if bond yields rise, the market should absorb the next leg higher as long as it isn't too steep.</p>\n<p>\"We've had a very gradual, but steady, low-volatility move to new highs,\" Lerner said in an interview. \"I still think the primary market trend is higher, but as we head into earnings, I suspect we start trading a little more rangebound. When the primary trend is higher, you don't want to worry about the hiccups.\"</p>\n<p>Some strategists fear, however, that stock valuations remain elevated despite uncertainties that include inflation and the tax regime.</p>\n<p>Stocks mostly ended at records last week and the Nasdaq Composite, after falling into correction in March --defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak--stands less than 2% from its Feb. 12 all-time closing high. Gains for equity benchmarks have come despite concerns about out-of-control inflation and the possibility that President Joe Biden will raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% to help fund his $2.4 trillion infrastructure proposal.</p>\n<p>\"The investment community is too upbeat in our opinion, not showing any concern for plausible tax increases being proposed by the Biden administration,\" wrote Citigroup research analysts, Tobias Levkovich, Lorraine Schmitt and Jennifer Stahmer, in a research note dated April 7.</p>\n<p>\"Indeed, all developments are perceived as positive news. Yet, such <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-sided views are not usually a good starting point,\" the Citi researchers wrote.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Germany was preparing new COVID-inspired legislation which would enable the eurozone's largest economy to impose national restrictions without regional government approval. England, meanwhile, reopened pubs for outdoor drinking, and hairdressers.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"POWL":"Powell Industries"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126060329","content_text":"U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday at the start of a week that will see the unofficial start of first-quarter earnings, headlined by some of the nation's largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. $(JPM)$ and Goldman Sachs Group$(GS)$.\nMarket participants were also weighing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke during a \"60 Minutes\" interview that aired on Sunday.\nHow are stock benchmarks performing?\nOn Friday , the S&P 500 booked a 2.7% weekly gain, the Dow rose 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite logged a 3.1% weekly rise. The S&P 500 and the Dow booked their third straight weekly gain, while the Nasdaq has climbed for two weeks in a row.\nWhat's driving the market?\nOn Sunday, Powell said that the economy is going to start growing strongly in the second half of the year, but emphasized that that rebound shouldn't lead anyone to believe that the central bank would dial up interest rates in 2021.\n\"I think it's unlikely that we would raise rates anything like this year,\" Powell said during the \"60 minutes\" interview which was taped at the Fed's headquarters on Wednesday and aired Sunday evening.\nThe Fed chief said the economy \"seems to be at an inflection point,\" with strong growth coming \"right now\" and the weakness caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the rearview mirror.\nPowell's comments come as Wall Street is positioning for the start of first-quarter corporate results, which could offer further clues about whether one of the market's biggest fears is coming to fruition: a too-hot economy and surge in inflation that compels policy makers to substantially raise rates and dial back accommodative policies sooner than expected.\nSo far, Fed officials have said they expect a rise in inflation to be transitory and have repeatedly stated that they would be focused on ensuring that the labor market makes a full recovery before considering easing policy.\nAs earnings season kicks off, \"I'm waiting to see how the market reacts,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist for Truist Advisory Services. \"A lot has been priced in and the market is looking for earnings to confirm that that's the correct move. The hurdle rate for positive surprises has moved up.\"\nLerner thinks the Fed will remain \"supportive\" and even if bond yields rise, the market should absorb the next leg higher as long as it isn't too steep.\n\"We've had a very gradual, but steady, low-volatility move to new highs,\" Lerner said in an interview. \"I still think the primary market trend is higher, but as we head into earnings, I suspect we start trading a little more rangebound. When the primary trend is higher, you don't want to worry about the hiccups.\"\nSome strategists fear, however, that stock valuations remain elevated despite uncertainties that include inflation and the tax regime.\nStocks mostly ended at records last week and the Nasdaq Composite, after falling into correction in March --defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak--stands less than 2% from its Feb. 12 all-time closing high. Gains for equity benchmarks have come despite concerns about out-of-control inflation and the possibility that President Joe Biden will raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% to help fund his $2.4 trillion infrastructure proposal.\n\"The investment community is too upbeat in our opinion, not showing any concern for plausible tax increases being proposed by the Biden administration,\" wrote Citigroup research analysts, Tobias Levkovich, Lorraine Schmitt and Jennifer Stahmer, in a research note dated April 7.\n\"Indeed, all developments are perceived as positive news. Yet, such one-sided views are not usually a good starting point,\" the Citi researchers wrote.\nMeanwhile, Germany was preparing new COVID-inspired legislation which would enable the eurozone's largest economy to impose national restrictions without regional government approval. England, meanwhile, reopened pubs for outdoor drinking, and hairdressers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167424104,"gmtCreate":1624282951408,"gmtModify":1631890002905,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💎🙌","listText":"💎🙌","text":"💎🙌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167424104","repostId":"1151942722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168654637,"gmtCreate":1623974842029,"gmtModify":1631890002928,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull?","listText":"Bull?","text":"Bull?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168654637","repostId":"1198660084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198660084","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623937153,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198660084?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198660084","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading，GOLD and RGLD shares tumbled nearly 3%,KGC shares dropped","content":"<p>Gold&nbsp;sector&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading，GOLD&nbsp;and&nbsp;RGLD&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%,KGC&nbsp;shares&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d4ade715c0085abc49f388d1a668f1e\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"578\">Gold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.</p>\n<p>The metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.</p>\n<p>The central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.</p>\n<p>“We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”</p>\n<p>Spot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold sector stocks fell in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 21:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Gold&nbsp;sector&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;fell&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading，GOLD&nbsp;and&nbsp;RGLD&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%,KGC&nbsp;shares&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d4ade715c0085abc49f388d1a668f1e\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"578\">Gold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.</p>\n<p>The metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.</p>\n<p>The central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.</p>\n<p>“We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”</p>\n<p>Spot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KGC":"金罗斯黄金","RGLD":"皇家黄金","GOLD":"巴里克黄金"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198660084","content_text":"Gold sector stocks fell in morning trading，GOLD and RGLD shares tumbled nearly 3%,KGC shares dropped more than 4%.\nGold slumped below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve sped up its expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns over inflation.\nThe metal slipped to the lowest in six weeks on Thursday as the dollar continued to strengthen, the day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. It’s the first major hawkish turn from the central bank whose deluge of stimulus has been critical to bullion’s strong performance since the start of the pandemic.\nThe central bank also released forecasts that show it anticipates two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- which helped boost the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting gold. Bullion, which declined the most in five months on Wednesday, broke through a number of key technical support levels, including falling below its 100-day moving average.\n“We have a negative outlook, expecting gold to fall to $1,600 an ounce over the next six to 12 months,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “At some point the Fed will not talk about taper but also implement it.”\nSpot gold declined 1.7% to $1,780.97 an ounce as of 2:07 p.m. in London, after earlier dropping to $1,776.08, the lowest intraday level since May 5. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5% after rising 0.9% on Wednesday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162923648,"gmtCreate":1624032184584,"gmtModify":1631890002915,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162923648","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126835564,"gmtCreate":1624550631058,"gmtModify":1631890002896,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go","listText":"Let’s go","text":"Let’s go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126835564","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198422658","pubTimestamp":1624533829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198422658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 19:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198422658","media":"The Street","summary":"Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?At first glance, Apple  -Get Report and Amazon  -Get Report stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.First, I find it hig","content":"<blockquote>\n Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n</blockquote>\n<p>At first glance, Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.</p>\n<p>But the Amazon Maven has unearthed an interesting finding. Both AAPL and AMZN are worth almost the same, in P/E terms, if one were to look forward to 2025. At comparable valuations, which is a better buy-and-hold through the mid-2020s?</p>\n<p><b>AAPL and AMZN: same valuation?</b></p>\n<p>The P/E multiple is a popular valuation metric that adds context to a stock’s market price. The numerator tends to be prior-year (trailing), current-year or next-year (forward) earnings per share.</p>\n<p>Amazon commands a higher multiple, among other reasons, because of the company’s more aggressive growth profile. Wall Street expects the e-commerce giant to increase EPS by a factor of four in the next five years. Apple, on the other hand, is project to “only” double earnings in the same period.</p>\n<p>By 2025, this is what analysts expect of each company’s bottom line, and what the stock’s P/E would be if share prices remained unchanged:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Amazon</b>: 2025 EPS of $172.30, for a P/E of<b>20.4</b>times</li>\n <li><b>Apple</b>: fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.30, for a P/E of<b>21.2</b>times</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Given enough time and assuming that current earnings projections are close enough to accurate, Amazon tends to become a less aggressively valued stock by the year. Maybe one day, in the not-too-distant future, shares could even start to look more appealing to value investors.</p>\n<p><b>Which is the best bet?</b></p>\n<p>If Amazon and Apple are valued at roughly the same 2025 P/E, one fair question to ask is: which stock might perform best in the next five years? I can use the earnings multiple as a guide to think through this question.</p>\n<p>From the P/E formula, one can derive the following: future stock price is determined by the company’s earnings delivered (the denominator “E”) and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings (the valuation multiple). Therefore, in the Amazon vs. Apple race to 2025, whichever does best at delivering EPS above consensus and/or commanding a richer earnings multiple wins.</p>\n<p>Clearly, this is open for debate since the future in uncertain. But I believe that Amazon stock has a better chance of producing higher gains than Apple through 2025.</p>\n<p>First, I find it highly unlikely that AMZN’s earnings multiple will converge from the 60s of today to the low 20s in 2025. This would only be feasible if the company’s growth opportunities dried out quickly, which I am not counting on. On the other hand, Apple’s P/E is more likely to stay around 20 to 25 times, given the more mature profile of the company relative to Amazon.</p>\n<p>This is not to say that I expect Amazon’s P/E to expand from 64 times. The opposite is more likely to happen, as the company ages. But if the stock is valued at, say, 40 times EPS in 2025, Amazon would not even need to deliver results beyond expectations to see its stock price double in five years.</p>\n<p>Regarding consensus, I also think that Amazon can beat expectations by a wider margin than Apple could. The e-commerce giant has been more aggressive at investing back in the business. The green- and brown-field revenue growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem better.</p>\n<p>In addition, Amazon’s margins could expand substantially (see five-year trend below), if or once the company’s online retail business gets closer to maturity. Apple could also improve its margin profile but probably much less so, given how profitable the company already is.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e59ae6a459751303dfd48c45ae47f99\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Figure 2: AMZN gross margin vs. operating margin.</i></p>\n<p><i>Stock Rover</i></p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>Fun fact: Amazon and Apple stock trade at roughly the same 2025 P/E (i.e. 2025 earnings in the denominator) of around 21 times, even though AMZN seems much more expensive at today’s valuations. Which do you think will produce more gains in the next five years?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56ed880cf0d62550fc0ee752a46efff\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 19:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n\nAt first glance, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198422658","content_text":"Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n\nAt first glance, Apple (AAPL) -Get Report and Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.\nBut the Amazon Maven has unearthed an interesting finding. Both AAPL and AMZN are worth almost the same, in P/E terms, if one were to look forward to 2025. At comparable valuations, which is a better buy-and-hold through the mid-2020s?\nAAPL and AMZN: same valuation?\nThe P/E multiple is a popular valuation metric that adds context to a stock’s market price. The numerator tends to be prior-year (trailing), current-year or next-year (forward) earnings per share.\nAmazon commands a higher multiple, among other reasons, because of the company’s more aggressive growth profile. Wall Street expects the e-commerce giant to increase EPS by a factor of four in the next five years. Apple, on the other hand, is project to “only” double earnings in the same period.\nBy 2025, this is what analysts expect of each company’s bottom line, and what the stock’s P/E would be if share prices remained unchanged:\n\nAmazon: 2025 EPS of $172.30, for a P/E of20.4times\nApple: fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.30, for a P/E of21.2times\n\nGiven enough time and assuming that current earnings projections are close enough to accurate, Amazon tends to become a less aggressively valued stock by the year. Maybe one day, in the not-too-distant future, shares could even start to look more appealing to value investors.\nWhich is the best bet?\nIf Amazon and Apple are valued at roughly the same 2025 P/E, one fair question to ask is: which stock might perform best in the next five years? I can use the earnings multiple as a guide to think through this question.\nFrom the P/E formula, one can derive the following: future stock price is determined by the company’s earnings delivered (the denominator “E”) and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings (the valuation multiple). Therefore, in the Amazon vs. Apple race to 2025, whichever does best at delivering EPS above consensus and/or commanding a richer earnings multiple wins.\nClearly, this is open for debate since the future in uncertain. But I believe that Amazon stock has a better chance of producing higher gains than Apple through 2025.\nFirst, I find it highly unlikely that AMZN’s earnings multiple will converge from the 60s of today to the low 20s in 2025. This would only be feasible if the company’s growth opportunities dried out quickly, which I am not counting on. On the other hand, Apple’s P/E is more likely to stay around 20 to 25 times, given the more mature profile of the company relative to Amazon.\nThis is not to say that I expect Amazon’s P/E to expand from 64 times. The opposite is more likely to happen, as the company ages. But if the stock is valued at, say, 40 times EPS in 2025, Amazon would not even need to deliver results beyond expectations to see its stock price double in five years.\nRegarding consensus, I also think that Amazon can beat expectations by a wider margin than Apple could. The e-commerce giant has been more aggressive at investing back in the business. The green- and brown-field revenue growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem better.\nIn addition, Amazon’s margins could expand substantially (see five-year trend below), if or once the company’s online retail business gets closer to maturity. Apple could also improve its margin profile but probably much less so, given how profitable the company already is.\nFigure 2: AMZN gross margin vs. operating margin.\nStock Rover\nTwitter speaks\nFun fact: Amazon and Apple stock trade at roughly the same 2025 P/E (i.e. 2025 earnings in the denominator) of around 21 times, even though AMZN seems much more expensive at today’s valuations. Which do you think will produce more gains in the next five years?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168652509,"gmtCreate":1623974793501,"gmtModify":1631890002939,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168652509","repostId":"1162782159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169575110,"gmtCreate":1623845672030,"gmtModify":1631890002963,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169575110","repostId":"1181966550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187731997,"gmtCreate":1623764140919,"gmtModify":1631891365939,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fantastic","listText":"Fantastic","text":"Fantastic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187731997","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1631884627596,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金","htmlText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","listText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","text":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ 戳我即可参与活动 \u0001如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。\u0001如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。\u0001 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab28db31a19b458d604a8bf02becddd3","width":"415","height":"125"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5227ebb594fe55b532c840acef147d7b","width":"415","height":"495"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345934604,"gmtCreate":1618271717208,"gmtModify":1631891365951,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Naise","listText":"Naise","text":"Naise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345934604","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194635432","pubTimestamp":1618236146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194635432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194635432","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.</li><li>With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.</li><li>Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.</li><li>Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.</li></ul><p>I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?</p><p>At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory Landscape</b></p><p>The US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.</p><p>Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings</p><p>Coin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.</p><p>Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at &gt;20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.</p><p>SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)</p><p>In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.</p><p>XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.</p><p>Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.</p><p>Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf68da62452a794c5daaa60ac989840\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCap</p><p><b>Other Regulatory Risks</b></p><p>Regulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.</p><p>Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.</p><p>Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All Market</b></p><p>There are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.</p><p>Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.</p><p>On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.</p><p>In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).</p><p>Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.</p><p>In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ca6dafd2b567bd920c5e9f8edc8fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>The tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.</p><p>Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8396c363230e04130e43f63d653956\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2327ad800bd3524a3aaa57e3a0b17f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 5:Coinbase's Historical Valuations<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1fd86395ee1b0e38f1f6fd472f84bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Verdict</b></p><p>In my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.</p><p>The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194635432","content_text":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Source:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsSource:BusinessofAppsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382705269,"gmtCreate":1613481168151,"gmtModify":1631891365953,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382705269","repostId":"1108705396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108705396","pubTimestamp":1613469786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108705396?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 18:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108705396","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a doubl","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington&nbsp;and millions of families were about to&nbsp;lose crucial benefits.</p>\n<p>Fast forward two months, and the&nbsp;economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p>\n<p>Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p>\n<p>The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the&nbsp;health crisis is easing&nbsp;and Uncle Sam is&nbsp;coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p>\n<p>After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p>\n<p>\"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p>\n<p>The turning point happened last month&nbsp;when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p>\n<p><b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p>\n<p>Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a&nbsp;forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p>\n<p>\"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p>\n<p>Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p>\n<p>Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p>\n<p>\"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p>\n<p>Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p>\n<p>The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p>\n<p>The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p>\n<p>For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p>\n<p>At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p>\n<p>\"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p>\n<p>Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States&nbsp;added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p>\n<p>Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p>\n<p><b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p>\n<p>But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p>\n<p>Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p>\n<p>And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday&nbsp;that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p>\n<p>All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p>\n<p>That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants&nbsp;force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p>\n<p><b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p>\n<p>\"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p>\n<p>Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p>\n<p>Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p>\n<p>\"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p>\n<p>However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p>\n<p>\"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p>\n<p><b>'Bring it on'</b></p>\n<p>Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington&nbsp;overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p>\n<p>\"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p>\n<p>And that in turn would spook the&nbsp;red-hot stock market.</p>\n<p>Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p>\n<p>Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p>\n<p>Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p>\n<p>\"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 18:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html><strong>CNN Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108705396","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and millions of families were about to lose crucial benefits.\nFast forward two months, and the economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.\nEconomists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.\nThe renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the health crisis is easing and Uncle Sam is coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.\nAfter supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.\n\"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.\nThe turning point happened last month when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.\n'Summer mini-boom'\nBefore the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\n\"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.\nOxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.\nLikewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"\n\"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.\nIndeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.\nThe rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.\nDouble-dip recession averted\nThe Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.\nFor months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.\nAt the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.\n\"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.\nSlammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States added just 49,000 jobs in January.\nJobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.\nVaccines to the rescue\nBut there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.\nCritically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.\nAnd Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.\nAll of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.\nThat's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.\nLow-wage workers are still hurting badly\nAgainst this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.\n\"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"\nDoing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.\nEmployment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.\n\"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.\nHowever, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.\n\"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.\n'Bring it on'\nSome economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington overheats the economy by injecting too much support.\n\"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.\nAnd that in turn would spook the red-hot stock market.\nFed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.\nCiting \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.\nZandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.\n\"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386049023,"gmtCreate":1613120105662,"gmtModify":1631893562416,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💎🙌","listText":"💎🙌","text":"💎🙌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386049023","repostId":"2110425090","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2110425090","pubTimestamp":1612949548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2110425090?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-10 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Revives Fights Over Stock Tax, HFT Firms Buying Orders","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110425090","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation\nChanging the rules could be difficult","content":"<ul>\n <li>Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation</li>\n <li>Changing the rules could be difficult in a divided Congress</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Frenzied trading of&nbsp;GameStop Corp.and other companies last month is reviving debate in Washington about changes that Wall Street has long opposed, including taxing stock purchases, banning brokerages from selling their customers’ orders and reining in short-selling.</p>\n<p>The ideas being floated by some Democratic lawmakers have long been on the wish lists of consumer advocates, who argue they would prevent financial firms from preyingon retail investors and curb the excessive speculation that’s transformed the stock market into a casino, rather than a place where companies raise money to grow their businesses. But industry executives counter that policy revamps often have unintended consequences and that a transaction tax would ultimately increase trading costs for all shareholders.</p>\n<p>The January tumult -- sparked by readers of Reddit’s WallStreetBets chat room and users of&nbsp;Robinhood Markets’&nbsp;popular trading app -- will be examined by the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing next week and the Senate Banking Committee is planning to follow. While getting a rules overhaul through a bitterly divided Congress won’t be easy, here’s an overview from analysts, consumer advocates and other experts on what might be on the table:</p>\n<p><b>Payment for Order Flow</b></p>\n<p>At the heart of the zero-commission trading platforms offered by Robinhood and other online brokerages is so-called payment for order flow, in which the firms steer investor trades to high-volume market makers such as&nbsp;Citadel Securities&nbsp;in exchange for fees.</p>\n<p>The arrangements have helped expand access to stock markets by dramatically lowering costs for retail investors. Indeed, the free trades offered by Robinhood have become ubiquitous with competitors such as&nbsp;E*Trade Financial Corp.,Interactive Brokers Group Inc.and&nbsp;Charles Schwab Corp.all following suit.</p>\n<p>Citadel Securities,Virtu Financial Inc.and other firms that buy orders make money by taking advantage of minuscule price changes in the market -- seeking to almost instantaneously sell shares for more than they paid for them.</p>\n<p>Critics contend that payment for order flow can leave brokerages beholden to giant financial firms, including high-frequency traders, with their customers unaware of the potential conflicts. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also brought cases tied to the practice, including&nbsp;fining Robinhood $65 millionin December for allegedly failing to inform clients that it sold their orders -- claims that the firm didn’tadmitor deny.</p>\n<p>“Payment for order flow is essentially legalized bribery that creates conflict of interest that incentivize brokers to breach their duties to their clients,” said&nbsp;Better Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Dennis Kelleher, who wants to see it banned.</p>\n<p>Tyler Gellasch, a former Senate and SEC counsel who now leads the&nbsp;Healthy MarketsAssociation, offered a similarly caustic view.</p>\n<p>“In few other circumstances do we say, ‘Look on the one hand you have a duty to give customers the best prices; on the other hand you’re allowed to accept bribes and not pass it through, or even disclose to your customers how much they are,’” Gellasch said.</p>\n<p>But Graham Steele, a former Senate Banking Committee staff member who now leads the Corporations and Society Initiative at Stanford’s University’s Graduate School of Business, said challenges to payment for order flow have been raised in response to previous market disruptions, but lawmakers and the SEC have failed to find a way to address the problems it poses.</p>\n<p>“The same issues come up every time and there’s a reason that progress hasn’t been made,” Steele said. “A lot of the market participantsfeellike this is the worst option except for all the others.”</p>\n<p>One issue that might be particularly thorny for lawmakers who are skeptical of payment for order flow is that they probably have constituents who love trading stocks for free. Figuring out a way to boost safeguards while preserving that expectation for no-cost trades could be difficult.</p>\n<p>Financial Transaction Tax</p>\n<p>Discussion about imposing a tax on financial transactions dates back more than a decade, to when then-President Barack Obama’s administration thwarted plans for a levy that were advocated by congressional Democrats and the European Union after the 2008 financial crisis. More recently, Hillary Clinton campaigned for president in 2016 on a Democratic platform backing a transaction tax and Senator Bernie Sanders pushed the idea in his campaign for president last year.</p>\n<p>Transaction tax backers like Bartlett Naylor, a financial policy advocate for Public Citizen, say charging a few basis points every time a financial asset is traded would cut down on high-frequency trading and cause investors to think twice before making speculative bets. Opponents such as Tom Quaadman, who leads the&nbsp;U.S. Chamber of Commerce’ Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness, contend that such a tax would “increase the costs for pension funds and harm investors.”</p>\n<p>And even some supporters like Kelleher of Better Markets and Gellasch of Healthy Markets say a transaction tax wouldn’t have prevented the kind of wild trading that pushed GameStop shares to stratospheric levels.</p>\n<p>“I don’t think a financial transaction fee would have had any impact on the trading in the meme stocks,” Kelleher said, contending that the levels being proposed are too small to serve as a deterrent. Gellasch said high-frequency traders and other market intermediaries would simply pass their costs along to investors.</p>\n<p><b>Increased Disclosures for Short Sellers</b></p>\n<p>At present, hedge funds don’t have to disclose their positions when they bet against a company’s shares, as happened with GameStop. But should they be required to?</p>\n<p>Both Naylor of Public Citizen and Kelleher of Better Markets generally favor more regulation. “The world will not end if short-sellers have to disclose more information, because the world hasn’t ended in Europe,” Kelleher said.</p>\n<p>“Greater transparency there would be better for everybody,” Gellasch said. “It would also dispel some of the misinformation out there.”</p>\n<p>Gellasch added that there are nascent efforts in Congress to require more disclosure, but he cautioned against taking steps that would undermine what he and others see as the crucial role played by short-sellers in helping to keep share prices in line with a company’s potential earnings. That clearly got out of whack with GameStop, which closed as high as $347.51 a share last month despite not being expected to post a profit for years.</p>\n<p>“You do want to be careful, I don’t think you want to overcook it,” Gellasch said.</p>\n<p>Lynn Turner, a former SEC chief accountant, has argued that another issue lawmakers and regulators should examine is the size of short bets. Amid the GameStop frenzy, many market observers were shocked to learn that hedge funds and other professional investors had made bearish wagers against some companies that exceeded 100% of their stock, trading that Turner said looks like manipulation.</p>\n<p><b>What’s Next?</b></p>\n<p>The House plans to hold the first&nbsp;hearing&nbsp;on the GameStop mania Feb. 18. Payment for order flow, a tax on trades and short-selling rules will be debated significantly by lawmakers and witnesses, Gellasch predicts, with all three issues standing a good chance of being part of legislative proposals that emerge after the hearing.</p>\n<p>While a transaction tax requires action by Congress, Gellasch contends that the SEC already has authority to crack down on payments to brokers and to boost disclosure of short bets. But a demand from Capitol Hill -- or even lawmakers issuing a bill that never becomes law -- is often needed to get the agency to get moving on divisive policies, he said.</p>\n<p>“There’s a big difference between what they’re authorized to do and what they do,” Gellasch said. “Congressional legislation can sometimes nudge the SEC to do something.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Revives Fights Over Stock Tax, HFT Firms Buying Orders</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Revives Fights Over Stock Tax, HFT Firms Buying Orders\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 17:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/gamestop-revives-fights-over-stock-tax-hft-firms-buying-orders><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation\nChanging the rules could be difficult in a divided Congress\n\nFrenzied trading of GameStop Corp.and other companies last month is reviving...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/gamestop-revives-fights-over-stock-tax-hft-firms-buying-orders\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AMC":"AMC院线",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/gamestop-revives-fights-over-stock-tax-hft-firms-buying-orders","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110425090","content_text":"Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation\nChanging the rules could be difficult in a divided Congress\n\nFrenzied trading of GameStop Corp.and other companies last month is reviving debate in Washington about changes that Wall Street has long opposed, including taxing stock purchases, banning brokerages from selling their customers’ orders and reining in short-selling.\nThe ideas being floated by some Democratic lawmakers have long been on the wish lists of consumer advocates, who argue they would prevent financial firms from preyingon retail investors and curb the excessive speculation that’s transformed the stock market into a casino, rather than a place where companies raise money to grow their businesses. But industry executives counter that policy revamps often have unintended consequences and that a transaction tax would ultimately increase trading costs for all shareholders.\nThe January tumult -- sparked by readers of Reddit’s WallStreetBets chat room and users of Robinhood Markets’ popular trading app -- will be examined by the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing next week and the Senate Banking Committee is planning to follow. While getting a rules overhaul through a bitterly divided Congress won’t be easy, here’s an overview from analysts, consumer advocates and other experts on what might be on the table:\nPayment for Order Flow\nAt the heart of the zero-commission trading platforms offered by Robinhood and other online brokerages is so-called payment for order flow, in which the firms steer investor trades to high-volume market makers such as Citadel Securities in exchange for fees.\nThe arrangements have helped expand access to stock markets by dramatically lowering costs for retail investors. Indeed, the free trades offered by Robinhood have become ubiquitous with competitors such as E*Trade Financial Corp.,Interactive Brokers Group Inc.and Charles Schwab Corp.all following suit.\nCitadel Securities,Virtu Financial Inc.and other firms that buy orders make money by taking advantage of minuscule price changes in the market -- seeking to almost instantaneously sell shares for more than they paid for them.\nCritics contend that payment for order flow can leave brokerages beholden to giant financial firms, including high-frequency traders, with their customers unaware of the potential conflicts. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also brought cases tied to the practice, including fining Robinhood $65 millionin December for allegedly failing to inform clients that it sold their orders -- claims that the firm didn’tadmitor deny.\n“Payment for order flow is essentially legalized bribery that creates conflict of interest that incentivize brokers to breach their duties to their clients,” said Better Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Dennis Kelleher, who wants to see it banned.\nTyler Gellasch, a former Senate and SEC counsel who now leads the Healthy MarketsAssociation, offered a similarly caustic view.\n“In few other circumstances do we say, ‘Look on the one hand you have a duty to give customers the best prices; on the other hand you’re allowed to accept bribes and not pass it through, or even disclose to your customers how much they are,’” Gellasch said.\nBut Graham Steele, a former Senate Banking Committee staff member who now leads the Corporations and Society Initiative at Stanford’s University’s Graduate School of Business, said challenges to payment for order flow have been raised in response to previous market disruptions, but lawmakers and the SEC have failed to find a way to address the problems it poses.\n“The same issues come up every time and there’s a reason that progress hasn’t been made,” Steele said. “A lot of the market participantsfeellike this is the worst option except for all the others.”\nOne issue that might be particularly thorny for lawmakers who are skeptical of payment for order flow is that they probably have constituents who love trading stocks for free. Figuring out a way to boost safeguards while preserving that expectation for no-cost trades could be difficult.\nFinancial Transaction Tax\nDiscussion about imposing a tax on financial transactions dates back more than a decade, to when then-President Barack Obama’s administration thwarted plans for a levy that were advocated by congressional Democrats and the European Union after the 2008 financial crisis. More recently, Hillary Clinton campaigned for president in 2016 on a Democratic platform backing a transaction tax and Senator Bernie Sanders pushed the idea in his campaign for president last year.\nTransaction tax backers like Bartlett Naylor, a financial policy advocate for Public Citizen, say charging a few basis points every time a financial asset is traded would cut down on high-frequency trading and cause investors to think twice before making speculative bets. Opponents such as Tom Quaadman, who leads the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’ Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness, contend that such a tax would “increase the costs for pension funds and harm investors.”\nAnd even some supporters like Kelleher of Better Markets and Gellasch of Healthy Markets say a transaction tax wouldn’t have prevented the kind of wild trading that pushed GameStop shares to stratospheric levels.\n“I don’t think a financial transaction fee would have had any impact on the trading in the meme stocks,” Kelleher said, contending that the levels being proposed are too small to serve as a deterrent. Gellasch said high-frequency traders and other market intermediaries would simply pass their costs along to investors.\nIncreased Disclosures for Short Sellers\nAt present, hedge funds don’t have to disclose their positions when they bet against a company’s shares, as happened with GameStop. But should they be required to?\nBoth Naylor of Public Citizen and Kelleher of Better Markets generally favor more regulation. “The world will not end if short-sellers have to disclose more information, because the world hasn’t ended in Europe,” Kelleher said.\n“Greater transparency there would be better for everybody,” Gellasch said. “It would also dispel some of the misinformation out there.”\nGellasch added that there are nascent efforts in Congress to require more disclosure, but he cautioned against taking steps that would undermine what he and others see as the crucial role played by short-sellers in helping to keep share prices in line with a company’s potential earnings. That clearly got out of whack with GameStop, which closed as high as $347.51 a share last month despite not being expected to post a profit for years.\n“You do want to be careful, I don’t think you want to overcook it,” Gellasch said.\nLynn Turner, a former SEC chief accountant, has argued that another issue lawmakers and regulators should examine is the size of short bets. Amid the GameStop frenzy, many market observers were shocked to learn that hedge funds and other professional investors had made bearish wagers against some companies that exceeded 100% of their stock, trading that Turner said looks like manipulation.\nWhat’s Next?\nThe House plans to hold the first hearing on the GameStop mania Feb. 18. Payment for order flow, a tax on trades and short-selling rules will be debated significantly by lawmakers and witnesses, Gellasch predicts, with all three issues standing a good chance of being part of legislative proposals that emerge after the hearing.\nWhile a transaction tax requires action by Congress, Gellasch contends that the SEC already has authority to crack down on payments to brokers and to boost disclosure of short bets. But a demand from Capitol Hill -- or even lawmakers issuing a bill that never becomes law -- is often needed to get the agency to get moving on divisive policies, he said.\n“There’s a big difference between what they’re authorized to do and what they do,” Gellasch said. “Congressional legislation can sometimes nudge the SEC to do something.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312996279,"gmtCreate":1611986398891,"gmtModify":1703757304964,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312996279","repostId":"1137182252","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137182252","pubTimestamp":1611909009,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137182252?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-29 16:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood Raises $1 Billion in Dash for Cash After Trader Revolt","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137182252","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"New York markets had just fired up, and the investing world was tuning in for Thursday’s episode of ","content":"<p>New York markets had just fired up, and the investing world was tuning in for Thursday’s episode of the continuing drama: Legions ofRobinhood Marketsinvestors versus hedge-fund Goliaths.</p><p>But within minutes, a shock wave invisible to the outside world rattled the mechanics of Wall Street -- sending Robinhood rushing for more than $1 billion of additional cash. The stock market’s central clearing hub had demanded large sums of collateral from brokerages including Robinhood that for weeks had facilitated spectacular jumps in shares such as GameStop Corp.</p><p>The Silicon Valley venture with the wildly popular no-fee trading app came to a crossroads. It reined in the risk to itself by banning certain trades and unwinding client bets -- igniting an outcry from customers and even U.S. political leaders. By that night, word was emerging that Robinhood had raised more than $1 billion from existing investors anddrawn hundreds of millions morefrom bank credit lines to weather the storm.</p><p>“Look, it is not negotiable for us to comply with our financial requirements and our clearinghouse deposits,” Robinhood Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev said in defending his firm’s decisions on Thursday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We have to do that.”</p><p>The capital injection is “a strong sign of confidence from investors that will help us continue to further serve our customers,” a Robinhood spokesperson later said in an emailed statement. The money will allow the firm to “continue to invest in record growth.”</p><p>When the history of this month’s stock mania is written, it may be a story of how retail traders set out from Reddit message boards to challenge Wall Street’s status quo -- and ended up battering their beloved brokerage too.</p><p>For weeks, Robinhood, with a mission “to democratize finance for all,” has been their trading platform of choice as they inflictedbillions of dollars of losseson hedge funds by sending stocks that those firms had shorted into the stratosphere -- a sort-of populist crusade into the staid world of finance.</p><p>Robinhood’s trading restrictions made virtually nobody happy Thursday, except perhaps the hedge funds. In a surreal scene, political archenemies Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ted Cruz found common ground in lashing the firm’s decisions. Conspiracy theories erupted online.</p><p>The question is whether such critics will dig into the industry’s inner workings, where pressure mounted on Robinhood and other firms to limit certain trades. That would put a rare spotlight on arcane parts of the market designed to prevent catastrophe, such as theDepository Trust &amp; Clearing Corp.</p><p>Not ‘Nefarious’What's moving marketsStart your day with the 5 Things newsletter.EmailBloomberg may send me offers and promotions.Sign UpBy submitting my information, I agree to thePrivacy Policyand&nbsp;Terms of Service.</p><p>One key consideration for brokers, particularly around high-flying and volatile stocks like GameStop, is in the money they must put up with the DTCC while waiting a few days for stock transactions to settle. Those outlays, which behave like margin in a brokerage account, can create a cash crunch on volatile days, say when GameStop falls from $483 to $112 like it did at one point during Thursday’s session.</p><p>“It’s not really Robinhood doing nefarious stuff,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Larry Tabb. “It’s the DTCC saying ‘This stuff is just too risky. We don’t trust that these guys have the cash to be able to withstand settling these things two days from now, because in two days, who knows what the price could be, it could be zero.’”</p><p>The trouble on Thursday began around 10 a.m., when after days of turbulence, the DTCC demanded significantly more collateral from member brokers, according to two people familiar with the matter.</p><p>A spokesman for the DTCC wouldn’t specify how much it required from specific firms but said that by the end of the day industrywide collateral requirements jumped to $33.5 billion, up from $26 billion.</p><p>‘Rare Circumstances’</p><p>Brokerage executives rushed to figure out how to come up with the funds. Robinhood’s reaction drew the most public attention, but the firm wasn’t alone in limiting trading of stocks such as GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.</p><p>In fact,Charles Schwab Corp.’s TD Ameritrade curbed transactions in both of those companies on Wednesday.Interactive Brokers Group Inc.andMorgan Stanley’s E*Trade took similar action Thursday.</p><p>Thomas Peterffy, the billionaire chairman of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Interactive Brokers, told Bloomberg TV the restrictions were prompted by concerns “about the integrity of the marketplace and the system.”</p><p>E*Trade stressed that its measures were a highly unusual. “We take actions like this seriously, and only initiate them in rare circumstances,” said spokesman Thayer Fox, adding that he expected normal trading to resume Friday.</p><p>Robinhood said after markets closed that it plans to allow “limited buys” to resume in affected securities. It also tried to assuage customer concerns with an email that evening: “This was a temporary decision made to best continue serving you, and was not an easy one to make.”</p><p>Credit Lines</p><p>The firm has tapped at least several hundred million dollars from its bank credit lines, a person with knowledge of the situation said. The company’s lenders includeJPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.andGoldman Sachs Group Inc., according todatacompiled by Bloomberg. Representatives for Robinhood and those banks declined to comment.</p><p>Robinhood’s capital remains “strong,” CEO Tenev told Bloomberg TV, underscoring that the restrictions helped protect both the brokerage and its clients.</p><p>One question is whether frustrated customers will forgive what some see as a betrayal in their campaign against Wall Street’s financial elite.</p><p>Douglas Bray, a software developer from Connecticut who’s been using Robinhood for about five years, said he plans to withdraw about $100,000 after the trading restrictions.</p><p>“I’m disappointed I could not keep my money in GME like any institutional investor could,” said Bray, 32, referring to GameStop’s ticker. “Hedge funds are on the brink of a massive short squeeze and appear to be calling in all the cavalry. So brokers are now ‘protecting’ customers as a facade so that they can appease their institutional backers. The entire community is outraged.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood Raises $1 Billion in Dash for Cash After Trader Revolt</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood Raises $1 Billion in Dash for Cash After Trader Revolt\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-29 16:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/for-robinhood-a-dash-for-cash-after-traders-took-on-wall-street?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York markets had just fired up, and the investing world was tuning in for Thursday’s episode of the continuing drama: Legions ofRobinhood Marketsinvestors versus hedge-fund Goliaths.But within ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/for-robinhood-a-dash-for-cash-after-traders-took-on-wall-street?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/for-robinhood-a-dash-for-cash-after-traders-took-on-wall-street?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137182252","content_text":"New York markets had just fired up, and the investing world was tuning in for Thursday’s episode of the continuing drama: Legions ofRobinhood Marketsinvestors versus hedge-fund Goliaths.But within minutes, a shock wave invisible to the outside world rattled the mechanics of Wall Street -- sending Robinhood rushing for more than $1 billion of additional cash. The stock market’s central clearing hub had demanded large sums of collateral from brokerages including Robinhood that for weeks had facilitated spectacular jumps in shares such as GameStop Corp.The Silicon Valley venture with the wildly popular no-fee trading app came to a crossroads. It reined in the risk to itself by banning certain trades and unwinding client bets -- igniting an outcry from customers and even U.S. political leaders. By that night, word was emerging that Robinhood had raised more than $1 billion from existing investors anddrawn hundreds of millions morefrom bank credit lines to weather the storm.“Look, it is not negotiable for us to comply with our financial requirements and our clearinghouse deposits,” Robinhood Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev said in defending his firm’s decisions on Thursday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We have to do that.”The capital injection is “a strong sign of confidence from investors that will help us continue to further serve our customers,” a Robinhood spokesperson later said in an emailed statement. The money will allow the firm to “continue to invest in record growth.”When the history of this month’s stock mania is written, it may be a story of how retail traders set out from Reddit message boards to challenge Wall Street’s status quo -- and ended up battering their beloved brokerage too.For weeks, Robinhood, with a mission “to democratize finance for all,” has been their trading platform of choice as they inflictedbillions of dollars of losseson hedge funds by sending stocks that those firms had shorted into the stratosphere -- a sort-of populist crusade into the staid world of finance.Robinhood’s trading restrictions made virtually nobody happy Thursday, except perhaps the hedge funds. In a surreal scene, political archenemies Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ted Cruz found common ground in lashing the firm’s decisions. Conspiracy theories erupted online.The question is whether such critics will dig into the industry’s inner workings, where pressure mounted on Robinhood and other firms to limit certain trades. That would put a rare spotlight on arcane parts of the market designed to prevent catastrophe, such as theDepository Trust & Clearing Corp.Not ‘Nefarious’What's moving marketsStart your day with the 5 Things newsletter.EmailBloomberg may send me offers and promotions.Sign UpBy submitting my information, I agree to thePrivacy Policyand Terms of Service.One key consideration for brokers, particularly around high-flying and volatile stocks like GameStop, is in the money they must put up with the DTCC while waiting a few days for stock transactions to settle. Those outlays, which behave like margin in a brokerage account, can create a cash crunch on volatile days, say when GameStop falls from $483 to $112 like it did at one point during Thursday’s session.“It’s not really Robinhood doing nefarious stuff,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Larry Tabb. “It’s the DTCC saying ‘This stuff is just too risky. We don’t trust that these guys have the cash to be able to withstand settling these things two days from now, because in two days, who knows what the price could be, it could be zero.’”The trouble on Thursday began around 10 a.m., when after days of turbulence, the DTCC demanded significantly more collateral from member brokers, according to two people familiar with the matter.A spokesman for the DTCC wouldn’t specify how much it required from specific firms but said that by the end of the day industrywide collateral requirements jumped to $33.5 billion, up from $26 billion.‘Rare Circumstances’Brokerage executives rushed to figure out how to come up with the funds. Robinhood’s reaction drew the most public attention, but the firm wasn’t alone in limiting trading of stocks such as GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.In fact,Charles Schwab Corp.’s TD Ameritrade curbed transactions in both of those companies on Wednesday.Interactive Brokers Group Inc.andMorgan Stanley’s E*Trade took similar action Thursday.Thomas Peterffy, the billionaire chairman of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Interactive Brokers, told Bloomberg TV the restrictions were prompted by concerns “about the integrity of the marketplace and the system.”E*Trade stressed that its measures were a highly unusual. “We take actions like this seriously, and only initiate them in rare circumstances,” said spokesman Thayer Fox, adding that he expected normal trading to resume Friday.Robinhood said after markets closed that it plans to allow “limited buys” to resume in affected securities. It also tried to assuage customer concerns with an email that evening: “This was a temporary decision made to best continue serving you, and was not an easy one to make.”Credit LinesThe firm has tapped at least several hundred million dollars from its bank credit lines, a person with knowledge of the situation said. The company’s lenders includeJPMorgan Chase & Co.andGoldman Sachs Group Inc., according todatacompiled by Bloomberg. Representatives for Robinhood and those banks declined to comment.Robinhood’s capital remains “strong,” CEO Tenev told Bloomberg TV, underscoring that the restrictions helped protect both the brokerage and its clients.One question is whether frustrated customers will forgive what some see as a betrayal in their campaign against Wall Street’s financial elite.Douglas Bray, a software developer from Connecticut who’s been using Robinhood for about five years, said he plans to withdraw about $100,000 after the trading restrictions.“I’m disappointed I could not keep my money in GME like any institutional investor could,” said Bray, 32, referring to GameStop’s ticker. “Hedge funds are on the brink of a massive short squeeze and appear to be calling in all the cavalry. So brokers are now ‘protecting’ customers as a facade so that they can appease their institutional backers. The entire community is outraged.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168650537,"gmtCreate":1623974670229,"gmtModify":1631890002947,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😨","listText":"😨","text":"😨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168650537","repostId":"2144690742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144690742","pubTimestamp":1623942044,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144690742?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Column: The FDA's hasty approval of a new Alzheimer's drug is looking worse than ever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144690742","media":"LA Times","summary":"The FDA's decision on Aduhelm sets up a healthcare spending crisis. \nFollowing a year in which the F","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a6526be3c93006ee9d37664f7f4650b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The FDA's decision on Aduhelm sets up a healthcare spending crisis.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Following a year in which the Food and Drug Administration meekly allowed President Trump to denigrate its integrity and undermine its judgment, it wasn't clear that the agency could fall even lower in public and professional esteem.</p>\n<p>It's clear now. The FDA's widely criticized decision on June 7 to approve the new Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm despite a nearly complete absence of evidence that it works is looking worse and worse with every day that passes.</p>\n<p>The latest data point underscoring the disastrous consequences of the FDA approval is related to the sky-high average price of $56,000 a year for the drug set by its U.S. manufacturer, Biogen.</p>\n<blockquote>\n The limited evidence for the efficacy of Aduhelm raises the question of whether its large impact on health spending is justified.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Altarum consultants</p>\n<p>According to a report by the nonprofit healthcare consulting organization Altarum, if the drug is prescribed for only 1 million patients a year — the low end of Biogen's marketing expectations — by the mid-2020s it will account for more than 1% of all national health spending. In 2025, for instance, when total spending is expected to reach abut $5.3 trillion, $57 billion of that will be spent on Aduhelm.</p>\n<p>The drug will increase all prescription drug spending by 8% and non-retail drug spending — that is, for drugs that have to be administered in hospitals or doctors' offices — by 25%. If the patient caseload doubles, so will those figures. And the FDA's approval would allow Aduhelm to be prescribed for any of the nation's Alzheimer's patients, who currently number more than 6 million.</p>\n<p>That will impose higher costs on 56 million Americans enrolled in Medicare Part B even if they don't suffer from Alzheimer's, the Kaiser Family Foundation observes. That's because Medicare is required by law to cover all prescription medicines approved by the FDA. Part B premiums rise with Medicare's expenses, so the higher spending on Adulhelm will hit all premium payers in the pocketbook.</p>\n<p>If 1 million Part B members take Aduhelm, the program's 80% share of the drug's cost would come to nearly $45 billion, or well more than the $37 billion Medicare paid for all Part B drugs in 2019.</p>\n<p>Many Medicare patients taking the drug will be hard-pressed to afford it, KFF notes. Their 20%, uncapped share of Part B drug and services costs would mean an average bill of $11,200 per year for the drug. That's almost 40% of the $29,650 median income of Medicare Part B members.</p>\n<p>It gets worse. Altarum's estimates don't encompass the ancillary costs that will be associated with taking Aduhelm. Because the clinical trials revealed that about 30% of patients receiving a high dose of the drug experienced brain swelling, patients will have to undergo regular MRI tests to watch out for this dangerous side effect. They'll have to pay their share of that, too.</p>\n<p>This isn't the first time that a new drug has threatened to break the national healthcare bank. The best comparison may be the hepatitis-C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni, which were priced by their developer, Gilead, at $84,000 and nearly $100,000 per year, respectively.</p>\n<p>Those drugs drove annual growth in retail prescription spending from 2.2% in 2013 to 13.5% in 2014, after their introduction, Altarum says.</p>\n<p>But there are differences. Sovaldi and Harvoni cured more than 90% of hepatitis-C patients after a single round of treatment, so the spending on any patient lasted less than a year; measuring their cost against the cost of treating hepatitis-C patients indefinitely made the cost-benefit balance obvious. Indeed, by 2016, when most patients had been treated, the prescription growth rate fell back to 1.7%,</p>\n<p>But Aduhelm is neither a cure nor a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-time treatment. \"Aduhelm is to be administered repeatedly throughout the patient’s lifetime or until the patient and his or her physician elect to discontinue treatment,\" Altarum explains. \"The resultant growth in spending will therefore be sustained for the foreseeable future.\"</p>\n<p>The organization's bottom line: \"The limited evidence for the efficacy of Aduhelm raises the question of whether its large impact on health spending is justified.\"</p>\n<p>As bad as the FDA's decision is looking today, it didn't start out as a widely praised action, either. As we reported last week, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> member of the FDA scientific advisory committee that had examined results from the drug's clinical trials pronounced the action \"probably the worst drug approval decision in recent U.S. history” in a letter resigning from the committee.</p>\n<p>The 11-member committee had advised almost unanimously against the approval. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> other members also resigned after the FDA ignored the panel's recommendation.</p>\n<p>Alzheimer's specialists are concerned about the FDA decision for more than financial reasons. They fear that the existence of a drug with the FDA's imprimatur, as questionable as it is, will interfere with efforts to develop and test other treatments that may turn out to be more promising.</p>\n<p>Patients may be reluctant to enroll in trials of alternative drugs instead of taking Aduhelm, for example. And researchers trying to recruit trial subjects will have to reject anyone who has been treated with Aduhelm, because it will be difficult, if not impossible, to determine whether a given result is due to Aduhelm or the new drug.</p>\n<p>The longest-lasting effect, however, may be on the FDA's reputation for imposing rigorous safety and efficacy standards. The pharmaceutical industry has long groused about the agency's painstaking approval process, even though it has given the American drug market an image as the safest in the world.</p>\n<p>The drugmakers have consistently pushed for faster approvals and the acceptance of ever more sketchy evidence from clinical trials.</p>\n<p>Aaron S. Kesselheim, the Harvard professor who delivered that damning judgment about the FDA approval before resigning from its advisory panel, has called for the creation of a new agency to oversee drug approvals, presumably inoculated from pressure from Big Pharma.</p>\n<p>The FDA's approval of a high-priced, apparently low-value drug that will yield billions of dollars in profits for its manufacturer may even spur Congress finally to take America's drug-price crisis in hand and find a solution. That could be the silver lining around the cloud of the FDA's action.</p>\n<p>But it will be a shame that an agency that reigned as a bulwark against unsafe and ineffective drugs since its founding in 1906 had to fall so low to achieve that goal.</p>\n<p>This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Column: The FDA's hasty approval of a new Alzheimer's drug is looking worse than ever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nColumn: The FDA's hasty approval of a new Alzheimer's drug is looking worse than ever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-fdas-hasty-approval-alzheimers-144244083.html><strong>LA Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The FDA's decision on Aduhelm sets up a healthcare spending crisis. \nFollowing a year in which the Food and Drug Administration meekly allowed President Trump to denigrate its integrity and undermine ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-fdas-hasty-approval-alzheimers-144244083.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-fdas-hasty-approval-alzheimers-144244083.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2144690742","content_text":"The FDA's decision on Aduhelm sets up a healthcare spending crisis. \nFollowing a year in which the Food and Drug Administration meekly allowed President Trump to denigrate its integrity and undermine its judgment, it wasn't clear that the agency could fall even lower in public and professional esteem.\nIt's clear now. The FDA's widely criticized decision on June 7 to approve the new Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm despite a nearly complete absence of evidence that it works is looking worse and worse with every day that passes.\nThe latest data point underscoring the disastrous consequences of the FDA approval is related to the sky-high average price of $56,000 a year for the drug set by its U.S. manufacturer, Biogen.\n\n The limited evidence for the efficacy of Aduhelm raises the question of whether its large impact on health spending is justified.\n\nAltarum consultants\nAccording to a report by the nonprofit healthcare consulting organization Altarum, if the drug is prescribed for only 1 million patients a year — the low end of Biogen's marketing expectations — by the mid-2020s it will account for more than 1% of all national health spending. In 2025, for instance, when total spending is expected to reach abut $5.3 trillion, $57 billion of that will be spent on Aduhelm.\nThe drug will increase all prescription drug spending by 8% and non-retail drug spending — that is, for drugs that have to be administered in hospitals or doctors' offices — by 25%. If the patient caseload doubles, so will those figures. And the FDA's approval would allow Aduhelm to be prescribed for any of the nation's Alzheimer's patients, who currently number more than 6 million.\nThat will impose higher costs on 56 million Americans enrolled in Medicare Part B even if they don't suffer from Alzheimer's, the Kaiser Family Foundation observes. That's because Medicare is required by law to cover all prescription medicines approved by the FDA. Part B premiums rise with Medicare's expenses, so the higher spending on Adulhelm will hit all premium payers in the pocketbook.\nIf 1 million Part B members take Aduhelm, the program's 80% share of the drug's cost would come to nearly $45 billion, or well more than the $37 billion Medicare paid for all Part B drugs in 2019.\nMany Medicare patients taking the drug will be hard-pressed to afford it, KFF notes. Their 20%, uncapped share of Part B drug and services costs would mean an average bill of $11,200 per year for the drug. That's almost 40% of the $29,650 median income of Medicare Part B members.\nIt gets worse. Altarum's estimates don't encompass the ancillary costs that will be associated with taking Aduhelm. Because the clinical trials revealed that about 30% of patients receiving a high dose of the drug experienced brain swelling, patients will have to undergo regular MRI tests to watch out for this dangerous side effect. They'll have to pay their share of that, too.\nThis isn't the first time that a new drug has threatened to break the national healthcare bank. The best comparison may be the hepatitis-C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni, which were priced by their developer, Gilead, at $84,000 and nearly $100,000 per year, respectively.\nThose drugs drove annual growth in retail prescription spending from 2.2% in 2013 to 13.5% in 2014, after their introduction, Altarum says.\nBut there are differences. Sovaldi and Harvoni cured more than 90% of hepatitis-C patients after a single round of treatment, so the spending on any patient lasted less than a year; measuring their cost against the cost of treating hepatitis-C patients indefinitely made the cost-benefit balance obvious. Indeed, by 2016, when most patients had been treated, the prescription growth rate fell back to 1.7%,\nBut Aduhelm is neither a cure nor a one-time treatment. \"Aduhelm is to be administered repeatedly throughout the patient’s lifetime or until the patient and his or her physician elect to discontinue treatment,\" Altarum explains. \"The resultant growth in spending will therefore be sustained for the foreseeable future.\"\nThe organization's bottom line: \"The limited evidence for the efficacy of Aduhelm raises the question of whether its large impact on health spending is justified.\"\nAs bad as the FDA's decision is looking today, it didn't start out as a widely praised action, either. As we reported last week, one member of the FDA scientific advisory committee that had examined results from the drug's clinical trials pronounced the action \"probably the worst drug approval decision in recent U.S. history” in a letter resigning from the committee.\nThe 11-member committee had advised almost unanimously against the approval. Two other members also resigned after the FDA ignored the panel's recommendation.\nAlzheimer's specialists are concerned about the FDA decision for more than financial reasons. They fear that the existence of a drug with the FDA's imprimatur, as questionable as it is, will interfere with efforts to develop and test other treatments that may turn out to be more promising.\nPatients may be reluctant to enroll in trials of alternative drugs instead of taking Aduhelm, for example. And researchers trying to recruit trial subjects will have to reject anyone who has been treated with Aduhelm, because it will be difficult, if not impossible, to determine whether a given result is due to Aduhelm or the new drug.\nThe longest-lasting effect, however, may be on the FDA's reputation for imposing rigorous safety and efficacy standards. The pharmaceutical industry has long groused about the agency's painstaking approval process, even though it has given the American drug market an image as the safest in the world.\nThe drugmakers have consistently pushed for faster approvals and the acceptance of ever more sketchy evidence from clinical trials.\nAaron S. Kesselheim, the Harvard professor who delivered that damning judgment about the FDA approval before resigning from its advisory panel, has called for the creation of a new agency to oversee drug approvals, presumably inoculated from pressure from Big Pharma.\nThe FDA's approval of a high-priced, apparently low-value drug that will yield billions of dollars in profits for its manufacturer may even spur Congress finally to take America's drug-price crisis in hand and find a solution. That could be the silver lining around the cloud of the FDA's action.\nBut it will be a shame that an agency that reigned as a bulwark against unsafe and ineffective drugs since its founding in 1906 had to fall so low to achieve that goal.\nThis story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169572160,"gmtCreate":1623845648650,"gmtModify":1631890002972,"author":{"id":"3559774895247525","authorId":"3559774895247525","name":"PotterHeads","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae925838b30f0e74fb1eae47a84c3b1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559774895247525","authorIdStr":"3559774895247525"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169572160","repostId":"1179402047","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}