Homini的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Homini

Homini

求上得中

IP属地：未知

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0勋章

2021-12-06

朝100以下去了？

开盘：恒生科技指数低开逾2.5%，阿里重挫8%

2021-11-12

卖飞一张CC[笑哭]

@小虎活动:【晒单有奖】分享期权持仓，抢多重豪礼！

2021-10-25

卖点美孚的PUT[开心]

@Buy_Sell:🚀【10月25日】看本周关键事件，聊今日交易计划

2021-09-30

$XOM 20211001 53.0 PUT(XOM)$就当买保险

2021-07-06

人家黑客我们码农[生气]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

蚊子腿也是肉[笑哭]

2021-06-19

入手

京东发布618最终战报：累计下单金额超3438亿

2021-06-18

看好中国不等于看好A股[傲娇]

野村眼里未来十年的中国股市：表现将超过其他国家平均水平

2021-06-17

下周新系统[惊讶]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-17

跌跌更健康

部分WSB概念股下行，AMC院线跌超10%

2021-06-16

够喝一壶

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

IPO赚不到就没啥钱了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-09

$AMD(AMD)$开始建仓

2021-06-08

升降傻傻分不清

摩根大通：将埃克森美孚石油(XOM.N)目标价从74美元降至76美元。

2021-06-03

吃瓜看戏就好

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-31

投资人不买账

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-25

啥时候发福利[开心]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-07

一塌糊涂

大幅不及预期！美国4月非农就业仅新增26.6万

2021-05-05

不错可以加仓了

通用汽车盘前涨超4%，Q1净利润超出市场预期

2021-05-03

解任务

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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class=\"title\">\n开盘：恒生科技指数低开逾2.5%，阿里重挫8%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-06 09:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月6日，香港恒生指数开盘下跌346.25点，跌幅1.46%，报23420.44点；国企指数开盘下跌124.82点，跌幅1.48%，报8330.63点；红筹指数开盘下跌7.05点，跌幅0.18%，报3826.45点。</p>\n<p>恒生科技指数跌2.56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>低开8%再创新低，此前宣布组织调整和人事变动；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>跌超5%；</p>\n<p>造车新势力大幅低开，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">理想汽车-W</a>跌15%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车-W</a>跌超10%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>开跌7.11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>跌11.3%;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02137\">腾盛博药-B</a>高开7%，此前公告称新冠联合疗法获积极数据，今日获纳入港股通；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688180\">君实生物</a>逆势高开近7%，双抗体疗法获FDA批准紧急使用授权范围至12岁以下人群。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139254602","content_text":"12月6日，香港恒生指数开盘下跌346.25点，跌幅1.46%，报23420.44点；国企指数开盘下跌124.82点，跌幅1.48%，报8330.63点；红筹指数开盘下跌7.05点，跌幅0.18%，报3826.45点。\n恒生科技指数跌2.56%，阿里巴巴-SW低开8%再创新低，此前宣布组织调整和人事变动；网易-S、百度集团-SW跌超5%；\n造车新势力大幅低开，理想汽车-W跌15%，小鹏汽车-W跌超10%；\n中国恒大开跌7.11%，恒大汽车跌11.3%;\n腾盛博药-B高开7%，此前公告称新冠联合疗法获积极数据，今日获纳入港股通；\n君实生物逆势高开近7%，双抗体疗法获FDA批准紧急使用授权范围至12岁以下人群。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879934390,"gmtCreate":1636675845910,"gmtModify":1636675846081,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"卖飞一张CC[笑哭]","listText":"卖飞一张CC[笑哭]","text":"卖飞一张CC[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879934390","repostId":"870516837","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":870516837,"gmtCreate":1636632870826,"gmtModify":1636700313758,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【晒单有奖】分享期权持仓，抢多重豪礼！","htmlText":"近期行情波动愈发剧烈，导致各热门标的期权价格可谓是翻江倒海以<a 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/>\n<title>京东发布618最终战报：累计下单金额超3438亿</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n京东发布618最终战报：累计下单金额超3438亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-19 00:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>北京时间6月19日凌晨消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>发布618最终战报：2021年6月1日0时至6月18日24时，2021“京东618，18周年庆”累计下单金额超3438亿元，创下新的纪录！</p>\n<p>这是给消费者带来最佳体验的最好印证；也是创造良好运营环境以及大量帮扶措施，帮助合作伙伴实现强劲增长的最好成果；更是助力乡村振兴、促进就业、降低碳排放，为社会创造更多价值的最好体现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bdbbcff030412e8bba7e0b9f389964c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bdbbcff030412e8bba7e0b9f389964c","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146581762","content_text":"北京时间6月19日凌晨消息，京东发布618最终战报：2021年6月1日0时至6月18日24时，2021“京东618，18周年庆”累计下单金额超3438亿元，创下新的纪录！\n这是给消费者带来最佳体验的最好印证；也是创造良好运营环境以及大量帮扶措施，帮助合作伙伴实现强劲增长的最好成果；更是助力乡村振兴、促进就业、降低碳排放，为社会创造更多价值的最好体现。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168617817,"gmtCreate":1623973855539,"gmtModify":1631890247684,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好中国不等于看好A股[傲娇]&nbsp;","listText":"看好中国不等于看好A股[傲娇]&nbsp;","text":"看好中国不等于看好A股[傲娇]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168617817","repostId":"1133403338","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133403338","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623923469,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133403338?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 17:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"野村眼里未来十年的中国股市：表现将超过其他国家平均水平","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133403338","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"野村认为，目前全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注；相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价；投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n\n野村发表长篇报告，看多中国股市未来1","content":"<blockquote>\n 野村认为，目前全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注；相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价；投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n</blockquote>\n<p>野村发表长篇报告，看多中国股市未来10年发展前景。</p>\n<p>野村认为，随着中国经济进一步扩张，投资中国股市将使海外投资者直接接触有14亿消费者的单一市场，更多的投资比例将提供更高的回报和风险分散。</p>\n<p>相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价。从传统的投资方法出发，投资者将看到未来数年中国A股的股价比美股便宜，投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。</p>\n<p>全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注</p>\n<p>野村表示，中国股市在MSCI全球指数中的占比在过去10年显著提高，权重已从2011年的2.2%上升至2021年的4.9%。随着中国向海外投资者开放市场，这一上升趋势未来还将延续。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffbd0de1420d3241eea93df19ad8a3c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在占比提高的同时，中国经济依然在快速增长，<b>有望超越美国成为全球第一大经济体。</b></p>\n<p>IMF此前预测认为，从现在到2026年，中国经济将有望增长45%。同期美国经济增长将增长22%。如果预测成真且人民币继续升值，<b>中国成为全球第一大经济体的时间点最早或提前到2026年。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fb483128bd2f37af317dfca1676aa6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>尽管中国的规模和广度如此之大，但全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注，在大多数全球投资组合中，中国的代表性不足。</p>\n<p>野村研究发现，全球最大主权财富基金Norges（挪威主权财富基金）、美国最大退休基金CalPERS（加州公务员退休基金）等全球知名基金所配置的中国资产占比不到4%。Norges对中国的投资规模甚至低于对英国等发达市场的投资。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4874f2dfacfdc1e32c95facb0efefe2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这可能是因为MSCI等全球指数编制公司将中国归入新兴市场类别，并因外资所有权限制和自由流通限制而限制了中国的权重。</p>\n<p>同时基金的“母国偏好”也加剧了这一现象的发展，全球最大的养老金和主权基金，如GPIF(日本)、NPS(韩国)、CPPIB(加拿大)和Norges(挪威)，更倾向于投资于本国市场，而不是其他地区。</p>\n<p><b>但随着信息壁垒减少、对冲技术更加先进，以及许多当地股市规模较小，“母国偏好”的概念已经过时。现在是时候将中国视作独立的资产类别，并加码资源和资金投入。</b></p>\n<p>野村表示，全球最大的一些养老金和主权基金最近几年开始重新调整市场权重，增加对国际股票的敞口。随着全球各大养老基金这一过程的实施，<b>中国股市将成为最大的资产类别受益者。</b></p>\n<p>加拿大退休金计划投资委员会（CPPIB）是其中的典型代表。该机构2016年对中国的投资比例不到5%，目前占比已提升至13%。最新计划则是到2025年将中国投资的比例提高至六分之一（17%）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb392f57de9e1a839ae622c4bf7d4aad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>投资中国存在显著的多元化好处</p>\n<p>野村表示，投资中国股市还存在明显的多元化好处。</p>\n<p>中国GDP在过去10年里上涨了1倍多，这种变化也反映在中国股市的构成占比上。</p>\n<p>在MSCI中国指数中，金融类股票的占比已经从2011年的近35%降至目前的14.5%。</p>\n<p>与此同时，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>为代表的非必须消费品的占比从2011年的6.2%攀升至目前的34%。而以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>为代表的通信服务板块占比也攀升至20.5%。医疗保健行业占比同样在提升，从10年前的不到1%上升到目前的6.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79675430d519dd1770875f4fe7bc1575\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>野村强调，阿里、腾讯等中国互联网巨头几乎完全是国内企业。这与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>显著不同，后者超过四分之三的收入来自英国以外的国家。</p>\n<p>这意味中国股市在其他地区的收入流失有限，<b>海外投资者可以通过直接投资中国股市来改善风险分散化。</b></p>\n<p><b>投资中国股市也可以让海外投资者直接接触到有14亿消费者的单一实体市场，更多的投资比例将为资产所有者提供更高的回报和风险分散。</b></p>\n<p>中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价</p>\n<p><b>野村表示，相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价。</b></p>\n<p>在盈利预期增长方面，路透终端统计显示，目前市场分析师给予MSCI中国指数2021—2023年的年盈利增长都在16%以上，2020—2022年的年复合增长更是高达17.5%。这较MSCI美国和MSCI日本同期预测值要稳定的多。后两个市场在这一时期的利润增长波动较大，到2023年利润增长将大幅放缓。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82979d23d9b99c03223f0fbc05a21f2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">与美国股市相比，中国股市还具备显著的折价。美国与亚洲的估值差距目前处于6年来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>MSCI美国指数的2021年预期市盈率已经攀升至22.8。与此同时，MSCI亚洲(不包括日本)和MSCI中国的2021年市盈率分别为15.8和15.9。<b>这意味着美国股票的投资者需要支付比亚洲地区股票高43%的溢价。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c85d1a251d7013a9faa5d518c278ed9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">在PEG角度，相关结论也是类似的。</p>\n<p>按照目前市场预期数据，MSCI中国指数2021—2023年EPS的年复合增长将达到16.7%，而该指数2021年的市盈率仅为15.9。这使得MSCI中国的PEG指标为0.95。</p>\n<p>与之相对，市场预期MSCI美国指数同期的EPS增长仅为10.8%，而指数2021年的市盈率则高达22.8，这使得MSCI美国的PEG比率达到2.11，<b>是MSCI中国的两倍多。</b></p>\n<p>野村同时提醒投资者，<b>目前市场对于MSCI美国的盈利并没有反映出美国可能的公司税新政。</b></p>\n<p>拜登的民主党政府一个重大政策选择就是提高公司税。如果美国政府上调企业税率，目前的盈利预期将受到挤压，美国股市的PEG比率将进一步上升。</p>\n<p>野村总结称，从传统的投资方法出发，投资者将看到未来数年中国A股的股价比美股便宜，投资者应当摒弃固有的偏见，<b>在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>野村眼里未来十年的中国股市：表现将超过其他国家平均水平</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n野村眼里未来十年的中国股市：表现将超过其他国家平均水平\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-17 17:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>野村认为，目前全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注；相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价；投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n\n野村发表长篇报告，看多中国股市未来10年发展前景。\n野村认为，随着中国经济进一步扩张，投资中国股市将使海外投资者直接接触有14亿消费者的单一市场，更多的投资比例将提供更高的回报和风险分散。\n相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133403338","content_text":"野村认为，目前全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注；相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价；投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n\n野村发表长篇报告，看多中国股市未来10年发展前景。\n野村认为，随着中国经济进一步扩张，投资中国股市将使海外投资者直接接触有14亿消费者的单一市场，更多的投资比例将提供更高的回报和风险分散。\n相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价。从传统的投资方法出发，投资者将看到未来数年中国A股的股价比美股便宜，投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注\n野村表示，中国股市在MSCI全球指数中的占比在过去10年显著提高，权重已从2011年的2.2%上升至2021年的4.9%。随着中国向海外投资者开放市场，这一上升趋势未来还将延续。\n\n在占比提高的同时，中国经济依然在快速增长，有望超越美国成为全球第一大经济体。\nIMF此前预测认为，从现在到2026年，中国经济将有望增长45%。同期美国经济增长将增长22%。如果预测成真且人民币继续升值，中国成为全球第一大经济体的时间点最早或提前到2026年。\n尽管中国的规模和广度如此之大，但全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注，在大多数全球投资组合中，中国的代表性不足。\n野村研究发现，全球最大主权财富基金Norges（挪威主权财富基金）、美国最大退休基金CalPERS（加州公务员退休基金）等全球知名基金所配置的中国资产占比不到4%。Norges对中国的投资规模甚至低于对英国等发达市场的投资。\n这可能是因为MSCI等全球指数编制公司将中国归入新兴市场类别，并因外资所有权限制和自由流通限制而限制了中国的权重。\n同时基金的“母国偏好”也加剧了这一现象的发展，全球最大的养老金和主权基金，如GPIF(日本)、NPS(韩国)、CPPIB(加拿大)和Norges(挪威)，更倾向于投资于本国市场，而不是其他地区。\n但随着信息壁垒减少、对冲技术更加先进，以及许多当地股市规模较小，“母国偏好”的概念已经过时。现在是时候将中国视作独立的资产类别，并加码资源和资金投入。\n野村表示，全球最大的一些养老金和主权基金最近几年开始重新调整市场权重，增加对国际股票的敞口。随着全球各大养老基金这一过程的实施，中国股市将成为最大的资产类别受益者。\n加拿大退休金计划投资委员会（CPPIB）是其中的典型代表。该机构2016年对中国的投资比例不到5%，目前占比已提升至13%。最新计划则是到2025年将中国投资的比例提高至六分之一（17%）。\n\n投资中国存在显著的多元化好处\n野村表示，投资中国股市还存在明显的多元化好处。\n中国GDP在过去10年里上涨了1倍多，这种变化也反映在中国股市的构成占比上。\n在MSCI中国指数中，金融类股票的占比已经从2011年的近35%降至目前的14.5%。\n与此同时，以阿里巴巴为代表的非必须消费品的占比从2011年的6.2%攀升至目前的34%。而以腾讯为代表的通信服务板块占比也攀升至20.5%。医疗保健行业占比同样在提升，从10年前的不到1%上升到目前的6.7%。\n\n野村强调，阿里、腾讯等中国互联网巨头几乎完全是国内企业。这与亚马逊、苹果显著不同，后者超过四分之三的收入来自英国以外的国家。\n这意味中国股市在其他地区的收入流失有限，海外投资者可以通过直接投资中国股市来改善风险分散化。\n投资中国股市也可以让海外投资者直接接触到有14亿消费者的单一实体市场，更多的投资比例将为资产所有者提供更高的回报和风险分散。\n中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价\n野村表示，相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价。\n在盈利预期增长方面，路透终端统计显示，目前市场分析师给予MSCI中国指数2021—2023年的年盈利增长都在16%以上，2020—2022年的年复合增长更是高达17.5%。这较MSCI美国和MSCI日本同期预测值要稳定的多。后两个市场在这一时期的利润增长波动较大，到2023年利润增长将大幅放缓。\n与美国股市相比，中国股市还具备显著的折价。美国与亚洲的估值差距目前处于6年来的最高水平。\nMSCI美国指数的2021年预期市盈率已经攀升至22.8。与此同时，MSCI亚洲(不包括日本)和MSCI中国的2021年市盈率分别为15.8和15.9。这意味着美国股票的投资者需要支付比亚洲地区股票高43%的溢价。在PEG角度，相关结论也是类似的。\n按照目前市场预期数据，MSCI中国指数2021—2023年EPS的年复合增长将达到16.7%，而该指数2021年的市盈率仅为15.9。这使得MSCI中国的PEG指标为0.95。\n与之相对，市场预期MSCI美国指数同期的EPS增长仅为10.8%，而指数2021年的市盈率则高达22.8，这使得MSCI美国的PEG比率达到2.11，是MSCI中国的两倍多。\n野村同时提醒投资者，目前市场对于MSCI美国的盈利并没有反映出美国可能的公司税新政。\n拜登的民主党政府一个重大政策选择就是提高公司税。如果美国政府上调企业税率，目前的盈利预期将受到挤压，美国股市的PEG比率将进一步上升。\n野村总结称，从传统的投资方法出发，投资者将看到未来数年中国A股的股价比美股便宜，投资者应当摒弃固有的偏见，在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163242241,"gmtCreate":1623887389483,"gmtModify":1631890247688,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"下周新系统[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"下周新系统[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"下周新系统[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163242241","repostId":"1145772293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163257469,"gmtCreate":1623887201251,"gmtModify":1631890247691,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"跌跌更健康","listText":"跌跌更健康","text":"跌跌更健康","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163257469","repostId":"1146756294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146756294","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623856744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146756294?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">黑莓</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">ContextLogic</a>跌超4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbeb078de2de6d1611ad66c88cca74b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","BB":"黑莓","AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146756294","content_text":"6月16日，部分WSB概念股下行，AMC院线跌超10%，黑莓跌超8%，游戏驿站、ContextLogic跌超4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160491673,"gmtCreate":1623803664592,"gmtModify":1631890247693,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"够喝一壶","listText":"够喝一壶","text":"够喝一壶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160491673","repostId":"1188387561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187636038,"gmtCreate":1623751581524,"gmtModify":1631890247697,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"IPO赚不到就没啥钱了","listText":"IPO赚不到就没啥钱了","text":"IPO赚不到就没啥钱了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187636038","repostId":"1126133700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180780875,"gmtCreate":1623226991697,"gmtModify":1631890247699,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecccb954c9a03cd26d576ebec5c96d6","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021060814240379c36667&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2141125762","content_text":"摩根大通：将埃克森美孚石油(XOM.N)目标价从74美元降至76美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":111444884,"gmtCreate":1622695695548,"gmtModify":1631890247710,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"吃瓜看戏就好","listText":"吃瓜看戏就好","text":"吃瓜看戏就好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111444884","repostId":"2140444621","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110160911,"gmtCreate":1622431175433,"gmtModify":1631890247714,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"投资人不买账","listText":"投资人不买账","text":"投资人不买账","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110160911","repostId":"2139870487","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":138605830,"gmtCreate":1621931432620,"gmtModify":1631890247711,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啥时候发福利[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"啥时候发福利[开心]&nbsp;","text":"啥时候发福利[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138605830","repostId":"1135607867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104201924,"gmtCreate":1620390909468,"gmtModify":1631890247720,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一塌糊涂","listText":"一塌糊涂","text":"一塌糊涂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104201924","repostId":"1180692702","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180692702","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620390640,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180692702?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大幅不及预期！美国4月非农就业仅新增26.6万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180692702","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美国4月非农就业人口变动 26.6万，预期 99.8万，前值 91.6万；美国4月失业率 6.1%，预期 5.8%，前值 6%。5月7日公布的数据显示，美国4月非农就业大幅不及预期，失业率抬升。","content":"<blockquote>摘要：美国4月非农就业人口变动 26.6万，预期 99.8万，前值 91.6万；美国4月失业率 6.1%，预期 5.8%，前值 6%。</blockquote><p>5月7日公布的数据显示，美国4月非农就业大幅不及预期，失业率抬升。</p><p>美国4月非农就业人口增加26.6万，预期增加99.8万，前值增加91.6万。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4fdfd6cc906c9f66861c649da51a49\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>美国4月失业率6.1%，预期5.8%，前值6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2755943e54d0cd79b7bfd069be1ddd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>目前，美国仍然比疫情前少了820万个工作岗位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c9539b2aa8c9920ac5fb403961d45\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>劳动参与率也令人失望，为61.7％，即便高于预期的61.6％。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2f847e0f027978a4350d61df857fdbb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>有机构表示，美国4月非农数据录得26.6万人，大幅不及预期，失业率上升至6.1%，而可用劳动力的短缺加剧。 雇主发现招聘困难，这种状况阻碍了劳动力市场的发展势头。这意味着美联储的超宽松货币政策是正确的。</p><p>美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策，希望我们能看到雇主们提高工资，许多财政支持仍在酝酿之中。他还表示，对华尔街批评美联储政策的人“没有同情”，有近900万到1000万美国人仍然没有工作，我坚定地认为应提供大量支持，目前在恢复充分就业方面仍处于“深坑”中。</p><p>此前多家机构给出乐观预期</p><p>值得注意的是，非农数据公布前，主要投行对4月非农就业人口的增幅预期较为乐观，但各投行之间的预期差距较大。</p><p>分析人士也表示，此次投行集体预测失误，已经可以记入史册。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96b84d3383be6955f6308c2879f77a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>具体而言，美国4月季调后非农就业人口增幅料介于85万至150万，失业率料介于5.5%-5.9%，平均时薪年率增幅料介于-0.6%至-0.2%。</p><p>其中，渣打银行全球外汇研究部负责人史蒂夫·英格兰Steve Englander给出了非农增加150万人的乐观预测。</p><p>值得一提的是，WilmingtonTrust首席分析师LukeTilley称，仅从市场角度来看，若就业人数连续增加100万，将对市场不利。而外汇经纪商OANDA高级市场分析师Edward Moya表示，如果这一数字超过150万，可能导致美债收益率飙升，为美元提供一些暂时支撑。渣打银行全球外汇研究部负责人Steve Englander认为，只有非农数据增加200万以上时，美联储才会改变立场，并认为经济过热，并超出可接受的范围。</p><p>当然，也有许多机构给出了非农就业低于预期的风险。所有的79家机构中有2家预测非农就业低于80万。此前，有分析人士指出，非农低于100万将导致美债温和反弹，收益率温和下挫并跌破1.5%。</p><p><b>市场反应</b></p><p>消息公布后，美元指数短线走低40点至90.53，10年期美债收益率下跌10BP至1.48%。现货黄金短线走高约10美元，报1826.43美元/盎司。美股股指期货短线急速拉升，纳指期货涨幅扩大至1.3%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大幅不及预期！美国4月非农就业仅新增26.6万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大幅不及预期！美国4月非农就业仅新增26.6万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>摘要：美国4月非农就业人口变动 26.6万，预期 99.8万，前值 91.6万；美国4月失业率 6.1%，预期 5.8%，前值 6%。</blockquote><p>5月7日公布的数据显示，美国4月非农就业大幅不及预期，失业率抬升。</p><p>美国4月非农就业人口增加26.6万，预期增加99.8万，前值增加91.6万。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4fdfd6cc906c9f66861c649da51a49\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>美国4月失业率6.1%，预期5.8%，前值6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2755943e54d0cd79b7bfd069be1ddd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>目前，美国仍然比疫情前少了820万个工作岗位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c9539b2aa8c9920ac5fb403961d45\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>劳动参与率也令人失望，为61.7％，即便高于预期的61.6％。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2f847e0f027978a4350d61df857fdbb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>有机构表示，美国4月非农数据录得26.6万人，大幅不及预期，失业率上升至6.1%，而可用劳动力的短缺加剧。 雇主发现招聘困难，这种状况阻碍了劳动力市场的发展势头。这意味着美联储的超宽松货币政策是正确的。</p><p>美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策，希望我们能看到雇主们提高工资，许多财政支持仍在酝酿之中。他还表示，对华尔街批评美联储政策的人“没有同情”，有近900万到1000万美国人仍然没有工作，我坚定地认为应提供大量支持，目前在恢复充分就业方面仍处于“深坑”中。</p><p>此前多家机构给出乐观预期</p><p>值得注意的是，非农数据公布前，主要投行对4月非农就业人口的增幅预期较为乐观，但各投行之间的预期差距较大。</p><p>分析人士也表示，此次投行集体预测失误，已经可以记入史册。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96b84d3383be6955f6308c2879f77a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>具体而言，美国4月季调后非农就业人口增幅料介于85万至150万，失业率料介于5.5%-5.9%，平均时薪年率增幅料介于-0.6%至-0.2%。</p><p>其中，渣打银行全球外汇研究部负责人史蒂夫·英格兰Steve Englander给出了非农增加150万人的乐观预测。</p><p>值得一提的是，WilmingtonTrust首席分析师LukeTilley称，仅从市场角度来看，若就业人数连续增加100万，将对市场不利。而外汇经纪商OANDA高级市场分析师Edward Moya表示，如果这一数字超过150万，可能导致美债收益率飙升，为美元提供一些暂时支撑。渣打银行全球外汇研究部负责人Steve Englander认为，只有非农数据增加200万以上时，美联储才会改变立场，并认为经济过热，并超出可接受的范围。</p><p>当然，也有许多机构给出了非农就业低于预期的风险。所有的79家机构中有2家预测非农就业低于80万。此前，有分析人士指出，非农低于100万将导致美债温和反弹，收益率温和下挫并跌破1.5%。</p><p><b>市场反应</b></p><p>消息公布后，美元指数短线走低40点至90.53，10年期美债收益率下跌10BP至1.48%。现货黄金短线走高约10美元，报1826.43美元/盎司。美股股指期货短线急速拉升，纳指期货涨幅扩大至1.3%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9963fdf0bdb1101a0e95978b643c3c62","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180692702","content_text":"摘要：美国4月非农就业人口变动 26.6万，预期 99.8万，前值 91.6万；美国4月失业率 6.1%，预期 5.8%，前值 6%。5月7日公布的数据显示，美国4月非农就业大幅不及预期，失业率抬升。美国4月非农就业人口增加26.6万，预期增加99.8万，前值增加91.6万。美国4月失业率6.1%，预期5.8%，前值6%。目前，美国仍然比疫情前少了820万个工作岗位。劳动参与率也令人失望，为61.7％，即便高于预期的61.6％。有机构表示，美国4月非农数据录得26.6万人，大幅不及预期，失业率上升至6.1%，而可用劳动力的短缺加剧。 雇主发现招聘困难，这种状况阻碍了劳动力市场的发展势头。这意味着美联储的超宽松货币政策是正确的。美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策，希望我们能看到雇主们提高工资，许多财政支持仍在酝酿之中。他还表示，对华尔街批评美联储政策的人“没有同情”，有近900万到1000万美国人仍然没有工作，我坚定地认为应提供大量支持，目前在恢复充分就业方面仍处于“深坑”中。此前多家机构给出乐观预期值得注意的是，非农数据公布前，主要投行对4月非农就业人口的增幅预期较为乐观，但各投行之间的预期差距较大。分析人士也表示，此次投行集体预测失误，已经可以记入史册。具体而言，美国4月季调后非农就业人口增幅料介于85万至150万，失业率料介于5.5%-5.9%，平均时薪年率增幅料介于-0.6%至-0.2%。其中，渣打银行全球外汇研究部负责人史蒂夫·英格兰Steve Englander给出了非农增加150万人的乐观预测。值得一提的是，WilmingtonTrust首席分析师LukeTilley称，仅从市场角度来看，若就业人数连续增加100万，将对市场不利。而外汇经纪商OANDA高级市场分析师Edward Moya表示，如果这一数字超过150万，可能导致美债收益率飙升，为美元提供一些暂时支撑。渣打银行全球外汇研究部负责人Steve Englander认为，只有非农数据增加200万以上时，美联储才会改变立场，并认为经济过热，并超出可接受的范围。当然，也有许多机构给出了非农就业低于预期的风险。所有的79家机构中有2家预测非农就业低于80万。此前，有分析人士指出，非农低于100万将导致美债温和反弹，收益率温和下挫并跌破1.5%。市场反应消息公布后，美元指数短线走低40点至90.53，10年期美债收益率下跌10BP至1.48%。现货黄金短线走高约10美元，报1826.43美元/盎司。美股股指期货短线急速拉升，纳指期货涨幅扩大至1.3%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":102261793,"gmtCreate":1620218827012,"gmtModify":1631890247715,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错 可以加仓了","listText":"不错 可以加仓了","text":"不错 可以加仓了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102261793","repostId":"1196579812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196579812","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620214885,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196579812?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 19:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"通用汽车盘前涨超4%，Q1净利润超出市场预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196579812","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月5日，通用汽车盘前发布财报，财报显示：2021财年Q1营收324.7亿美元，市场预期326.7亿美元，去年同期327.09亿美元。2021年Q1净利润29.76亿美元，市场预期15.92亿美元，去","content":"<p>5月5日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>盘前发布财报，财报显示：2021财年Q1营收324.7亿美元，市场预期326.7亿美元，去年同期327.09亿美元。</p><p>2021年Q1净利润<b>29.76</b>亿美元，市场预期15.92亿美元，去年同期2.47亿美元。</p><p>每股收益为2.25美元，前值为0.62美元，预期值为1.04美元，超出市场预期116.35%。</p><p>第一季度北美业务调整后EBIT31亿美元，同比+41%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>：预测全年汽车部门调整后自由现金流10亿美元至20亿美元。预测全年调整后每股收益4.50美元至5.25美元。预计财年调整后的息税前利润将达到100亿至110亿美元区间高端。</p><p>受此消息影响，通用汽车盘前涨超4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b7f54547dd0722504c66fd132604ca8\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>通用汽车盘前涨超4%，Q1净利润超出市场预期</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n通用汽车盘前涨超4%，Q1净利润超出市场预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-05 19:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月5日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>盘前发布财报，财报显示：2021财年Q1营收324.7亿美元，市场预期326.7亿美元，去年同期327.09亿美元。</p><p>2021年Q1净利润<b>29.76</b>亿美元，市场预期15.92亿美元，去年同期2.47亿美元。</p><p>每股收益为2.25美元，前值为0.62美元，预期值为1.04美元，超出市场预期116.35%。</p><p>第一季度北美业务调整后EBIT31亿美元，同比+41%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>：预测全年汽车部门调整后自由现金流10亿美元至20亿美元。预测全年调整后每股收益4.50美元至5.25美元。预计财年调整后的息税前利润将达到100亿至110亿美元区间高端。</p><p>受此消息影响，通用汽车盘前涨超4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b7f54547dd0722504c66fd132604ca8\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b52dcf2364ab7b67870432b56c8df399","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196579812","content_text":"5月5日，通用汽车盘前发布财报，财报显示：2021财年Q1营收324.7亿美元，市场预期326.7亿美元，去年同期327.09亿美元。2021年Q1净利润29.76亿美元，市场预期15.92亿美元，去年同期2.47亿美元。每股收益为2.25美元，前值为0.62美元，预期值为1.04美元，超出市场预期116.35%。第一季度北美业务调整后EBIT31亿美元，同比+41%。通用汽车：预测全年汽车部门调整后自由现金流10亿美元至20亿美元。预测全年调整后每股收益4.50美元至5.25美元。预计财年调整后的息税前利润将达到100亿至110亿美元区间高端。受此消息影响，通用汽车盘前涨超4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":108640345,"gmtCreate":1620022356487,"gmtModify":1631890247717,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559715451352051","authorIdStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"解任务","listText":"解任务","text":"解任务","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108640345","repostId":"1138745518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":343774464,"gmtCreate":1617758936058,"gmtModify":1631890247736,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559715451352051","idStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"WSB再次来袭逼空AMC，机构侮辱智商式割韭菜","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140444621","media":"三思期权","summary":"那么这次”逼空“会以皆大欢喜的结局收场吗？\n\n","content":"<p><b>五月初比特币开始下跌后，币圈一时熄火，耐不住寂寞的散户，又重回了Meme股。</b>Reddit论坛上的WBS板块这几天又沸腾了，散户以各种互相吹捧晒单方式宣布：WSB又回来了！</p><p>5月以来，GME涨幅已经达到了60%以上。而这次的主角AMC，涨幅500%-- 仅仅上个交易日一天股价便上涨超过100%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15aefa064deb369a528bf5df83ddd384\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CNBC证实AMC CEO Adam股票价值已从1月的8百万美金升至2.6亿美金。妥妥靠散户“躺赢“。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4ed93fc24d8144bfbec5fcb0276ca3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>相比上次GME的逼空，这次WSB又使用了同样的杠杆工具--价外看涨期权撬动市场。不同的是，这次连机构都参与进来，用了十分难看的吃相割了一波韭菜之后又将逼空推向了高潮。</p><p>这次又发生了到底什么？我们再次通过衍生品交易员的视角为大家专业的解读前方战况！</p><h3><b>价外看涨期权</b></h3><p>先回顾一下一月份逼空GME的行情当中，WSB就通过了价外的看涨期权自带的杠杆把GME股价搞得天翻地覆。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6ccceacb0960702394db3f62f648d5\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>和上次一样，WSB又是通过了价外看涨期权这个高杠杆的工具， 通过做市商把AMC逼起飞了。</b>昨天一天AMC的期权交易量就超过了世界上期权流动性最好的ETF-- 标普500ETF SPY。</p><p>其实散户的行动从上周开始了，从下图可以看到每天AMC看涨期权Call的交易量和未平仓数逐日上涨，周五看涨期权的交易量达到了金250万张合约。（深蓝色为期权交易量，浅蓝色为期权未平仓数）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b7dea6b2ac3973218eef5a7a89a4ae\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>对比一下标普500ETFSPY上周的交易量，热门股Tesla的交易数量，就能显出AMC的期权交易量有多夸张。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc305c834a49ab8d8a9bd95f2bae854\" tg-width=\"442\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(图出自Spotgamma）</p><p>GME的交易量这次从数量上逊色不少，只有GME的1/7,但GME周五收盘的股价是8倍多，所以期权名义价值的交易额相差并不多。</p><p>周三开盘后AMC直接从跳涨至$36之后一去不返，最高达到$72.5。马上就要超过期权最高的行权价$73了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9383ac692aa012c512a84be0c6963ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"896\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>如果大家记得3月份GME那次逼空，期权做市商就是在股价超过了最高行权价后，变得素手无策的。</p><p>当时以Deepfxxkingvalue为首的散户们针对做空了GME股票的对冲基金\"宣战\"。（所谓\"逼空\"，目的是为了让做空了的对冲基金随着股价上涨而不断亏损，直到没有足够的保证金，被迫清盘，从市场上买回股票。理想情况下，散户在对冲基金清盘的时候卖出股票利益是最大化的。）</p><p>AMC周三收盘价在$62左右，离最高行权价$73 只有20%&nbsp;，如果明天散户和/或其他投资机构一起把股价拉高超过73，不管交易所是否推出更高执行价格，做市商又要难受了。</p><h3><b>侮辱智商式的割韭菜</b></h3><p><b>这两天AMC暴涨的行情的催化剂却是华尔街的一只对冲基金Mudrick Capital Management 割韭菜的行为引起的。</b></p><p>我们首先了解一下&nbsp;Mudrick Capital Management。它的创始人兼首席投资官是Jason Mudrick，早在2009年创办了这家专门从事不良信贷投资的投资公司。刚开始时管理的资产仅为500万美元。截至2021年5月，主要为机构客户提供的总额已增至约38亿美元。</p><p><b>今年一月份的逼空GME就出现了它的身影。当时通过购买看涨期权，以及AMC的债券在一月份净赚2亿美金！</b></p><p>就是这么一家对冲基金又在本周二明目张胆的通过AMC增发的方式割了一波韭菜！</p><p>首先，AMC周二表示，它向Mudrick增发了股票来补充资本：达成的协议是以每股 27.12美元的价格购买850万股普通股，总价为2亿3千万美金。与我们一般了解增发不同，这次购买的同时股票将“可自由交易”，<b>这意味着该公司可以在任何时候或以它选择的任何数量出售股票</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb98948c8e43bf6c609dd95f8ba984cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>由于协议购买的价格<b>比上周收盘价格26美金有一定溢价，因此市场解读为大利好， 周二开盘直接拉升30%</b>。</p><p>但是就在周二当天<b>(对，你没看错就是当天),&nbsp;</b>Mudrick&nbsp;就发了公告，说已经全数把购买的股票在二级市场抛售。按当天平均价格31美金来算，大概一天的收益率为15%，妥妥进账三千五百万美金。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187669a4aae02f6156674c600ae5592e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>但是离奇的是，散户并没有被这个“坏消息”给打垮，反而是因为这个的热点WSB的交易热情完全被点燃，这也就出现了我们文章开头提到的那一幕，AMC股价被推升100%。</p><p>看到这里，貌似AMC，散户，机构，所有多头都是赢家，做市商也许被逼空赔了但也未必，毕竟做市商已经不是第一次碰到这种情况了。这次还没有看到某个对冲基金冤大头，换句话说，这次“逼空”远没有GME那次有目的。</p><p>那么这次”逼空“会以皆大欢喜的结局收场吗？</p><p>一定不会！被忽悠晚进场的散户，将在高位解盘，长期套牢或低位含泪亏损卖出结束。</p><p>不过好消息是，AMC CEO刚推出给投资人（韭菜）免费爆米花的活动。只是高位接盘的股东，恐怕要吃很久很久的免费爆米花才能回本。</p>","source":"lsy1607924588218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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仅仅上个交易日一天股价便上涨超过100%。CNBC证实AMC CEO Adam股票价值已从1月的8百万美金升至2.6亿美金。妥妥靠散户“躺赢“。相比...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UjyEkYSHdWF87tJDQWO_HA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cb6569f9230bfb39b0076dfdd9477a","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UjyEkYSHdWF87tJDQWO_HA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140444621","content_text":"五月初比特币开始下跌后，币圈一时熄火，耐不住寂寞的散户，又重回了Meme股。Reddit论坛上的WBS板块这几天又沸腾了，散户以各种互相吹捧晒单方式宣布：WSB又回来了！5月以来，GME涨幅已经达到了60%以上。而这次的主角AMC，涨幅500%-- 仅仅上个交易日一天股价便上涨超过100%。CNBC证实AMC CEO Adam股票价值已从1月的8百万美金升至2.6亿美金。妥妥靠散户“躺赢“。相比上次GME的逼空，这次WSB又使用了同样的杠杆工具--价外看涨期权撬动市场。不同的是，这次连机构都参与进来，用了十分难看的吃相割了一波韭菜之后又将逼空推向了高潮。这次又发生了到底什么？我们再次通过衍生品交易员的视角为大家专业的解读前方战况！价外看涨期权先回顾一下一月份逼空GME的行情当中，WSB就通过了价外的看涨期权自带的杠杆把GME股价搞得天翻地覆。和上次一样，WSB又是通过了价外看涨期权这个高杠杆的工具， 通过做市商把AMC逼起飞了。昨天一天AMC的期权交易量就超过了世界上期权流动性最好的ETF-- 标普500ETF SPY。其实散户的行动从上周开始了，从下图可以看到每天AMC看涨期权Call的交易量和未平仓数逐日上涨，周五看涨期权的交易量达到了金250万张合约。（深蓝色为期权交易量，浅蓝色为期权未平仓数）对比一下标普500ETFSPY上周的交易量，热门股Tesla的交易数量，就能显出AMC的期权交易量有多夸张。(图出自Spotgamma）GME的交易量这次从数量上逊色不少，只有GME的1/7,但GME周五收盘的股价是8倍多，所以期权名义价值的交易额相差并不多。周三开盘后AMC直接从跳涨至$36之后一去不返，最高达到$72.5。马上就要超过期权最高的行权价$73了。如果大家记得3月份GME那次逼空，期权做市商就是在股价超过了最高行权价后，变得素手无策的。当时以Deepfxxkingvalue为首的散户们针对做空了GME股票的对冲基金\"宣战\"。（所谓\"逼空\"，目的是为了让做空了的对冲基金随着股价上涨而不断亏损，直到没有足够的保证金，被迫清盘，从市场上买回股票。理想情况下，散户在对冲基金清盘的时候卖出股票利益是最大化的。）AMC周三收盘价在$62左右，离最高行权价$73 只有20% ，如果明天散户和/或其他投资机构一起把股价拉高超过73，不管交易所是否推出更高执行价格，做市商又要难受了。侮辱智商式的割韭菜这两天AMC暴涨的行情的催化剂却是华尔街的一只对冲基金Mudrick Capital Management 割韭菜的行为引起的。我们首先了解一下 Mudrick Capital Management。它的创始人兼首席投资官是Jason Mudrick，早在2009年创办了这家专门从事不良信贷投资的投资公司。刚开始时管理的资产仅为500万美元。截至2021年5月，主要为机构客户提供的总额已增至约38亿美元。今年一月份的逼空GME就出现了它的身影。当时通过购买看涨期权，以及AMC的债券在一月份净赚2亿美金！就是这么一家对冲基金又在本周二明目张胆的通过AMC增发的方式割了一波韭菜！首先，AMC周二表示，它向Mudrick增发了股票来补充资本：达成的协议是以每股 27.12美元的价格购买850万股普通股，总价为2亿3千万美金。与我们一般了解增发不同，这次购买的同时股票将“可自由交易”，这意味着该公司可以在任何时候或以它选择的任何数量出售股票。由于协议购买的价格比上周收盘价格26美金有一定溢价，因此市场解读为大利好， 周二开盘直接拉升30%。但是就在周二当天(对，你没看错就是当天), Mudrick 就发了公告，说已经全数把购买的股票在二级市场抛售。按当天平均价格31美金来算，大概一天的收益率为15%，妥妥进账三千五百万美金。但是离奇的是，散户并没有被这个“坏消息”给打垮，反而是因为这个的热点WSB的交易热情完全被点燃，这也就出现了我们文章开头提到的那一幕，AMC股价被推升100%。看到这里，貌似AMC，散户，机构，所有多头都是赢家，做市商也许被逼空赔了但也未必，毕竟做市商已经不是第一次碰到这种情况了。这次还没有看到某个对冲基金冤大头，换句话说，这次“逼空”远没有GME那次有目的。那么这次”逼空“会以皆大欢喜的结局收场吗？一定不会！被忽悠晚进场的散户，将在高位解盘，长期套牢或低位含泪亏损卖出结束。不过好消息是，AMC 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688180\">君实生物</a>逆势高开近7%，双抗体疗法获FDA批准紧急使用授权范围至12岁以下人群。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139254602","content_text":"12月6日，香港恒生指数开盘下跌346.25点，跌幅1.46%，报23420.44点；国企指数开盘下跌124.82点，跌幅1.48%，报8330.63点；红筹指数开盘下跌7.05点，跌幅0.18%，报3826.45点。\n恒生科技指数跌2.56%，阿里巴巴-SW低开8%再创新低，此前宣布组织调整和人事变动；网易-S、百度集团-SW跌超5%；\n造车新势力大幅低开，理想汽车-W跌15%，小鹏汽车-W跌超10%；\n中国恒大开跌7.11%，恒大汽车跌11.3%;\n腾盛博药-B高开7%，此前公告称新冠联合疗法获积极数据，今日获纳入港股通；\n君实生物逆势高开近7%，双抗体疗法获FDA批准紧急使用授权范围至12岁以下人群。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879934390,"gmtCreate":1636675845910,"gmtModify":1636675846081,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559715451352051","idStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"卖飞一张CC[笑哭]","listText":"卖飞一张CC[笑哭]","text":"卖飞一张CC[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879934390","repostId":"870516837","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":870516837,"gmtCreate":1636632870826,"gmtModify":1636700313758,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【晒单有奖】分享期权持仓，抢多重豪礼！","htmlText":"近期行情波动愈发剧烈，导致各热门标的期权价格可谓是翻江倒海以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为例，11月12日到期，行权价是1110的call，最高的时候一度到过154美元，1手相当于15400，才过了不到一周，这张call就曾跌到了3美元，1手相当于300美元，还不足之前的零头。如此剧烈的价格波动，也让有些人“一夜暴富”，有些人“一夜吃土”。近期剧烈波动的行情下，你的期权交易收益如何呢？欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的期权表现如何？晒晒你赚/亏了多少钱？以及近期有什么操作计划？ 【参与方式】 在本帖评论区晒出你的期权收益单（正负盈亏皆可），丰厚好礼等你来拿！ 如何参与晒单？ 点击APP的“交易”页面，选择交易的股票，点击持仓盈亏分享，即可解锁萌萌的小虎表情包。（更新到6.8.9以上版本的虎友们，除了分享单只股票涨跌幅之外，还可以分享你赚、亏了多少钱哦）【活动奖励】 凡是参与晒单的虎友均可获得66虎币，除此之外，还有机会获得以下奖励： 人气奖：我们会选取评论获赞量最高的虎友赠予小虎玩偶一个 暴富奖：我们会选取晒单收益最高的虎友，赠予期权免佣卡一张 吃土奖：我们会选取晒单收益最低的虎友，赠予小虎眼罩一个 欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的期权表现如何？晒晒你赚/亏了多少钱？以及近期有什么操作计划？多重豪礼等你来！ 心动不如行动，速度晒单吧！","listText":"近期行情波动愈发剧烈，导致各热门标的期权价格可谓是翻江倒海以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为例，11月12日到期，行权价是1110的call，最高的时候一度到过154美元，1手相当于15400，才过了不到一周，这张call就曾跌到了3美元，1手相当于300美元，还不足之前的零头。如此剧烈的价格波动，也让有些人“一夜暴富”，有些人“一夜吃土”。近期剧烈波动的行情下，你的期权交易收益如何呢？欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的期权表现如何？晒晒你赚/亏了多少钱？以及近期有什么操作计划？ 【参与方式】 在本帖评论区晒出你的期权收益单（正负盈亏皆可），丰厚好礼等你来拿！ 如何参与晒单？ 点击APP的“交易”页面，选择交易的股票，点击持仓盈亏分享，即可解锁萌萌的小虎表情包。（更新到6.8.9以上版本的虎友们，除了分享单只股票涨跌幅之外，还可以分享你赚、亏了多少钱哦）【活动奖励】 凡是参与晒单的虎友均可获得66虎币，除此之外，还有机会获得以下奖励： 人气奖：我们会选取评论获赞量最高的虎友赠予小虎玩偶一个 暴富奖：我们会选取晒单收益最高的虎友，赠予期权免佣卡一张 吃土奖：我们会选取晒单收益最低的虎友，赠予小虎眼罩一个 欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的期权表现如何？晒晒你赚/亏了多少钱？以及近期有什么操作计划？多重豪礼等你来！ 心动不如行动，速度晒单吧！","text":"近期行情波动愈发剧烈，导致各热门标的期权价格可谓是翻江倒海以$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 为例，11月12日到期，行权价是1110的call，最高的时候一度到过154美元，1手相当于15400，才过了不到一周，这张call就曾跌到了3美元，1手相当于300美元，还不足之前的零头。如此剧烈的价格波动，也让有些人“一夜暴富”，有些人“一夜吃土”。近期剧烈波动的行情下，你的期权交易收益如何呢？欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的期权表现如何？晒晒你赚/亏了多少钱？以及近期有什么操作计划？ 【参与方式】 在本帖评论区晒出你的期权收益单（正负盈亏皆可），丰厚好礼等你来拿！ 如何参与晒单？ 点击APP的“交易”页面，选择交易的股票，点击持仓盈亏分享，即可解锁萌萌的小虎表情包。（更新到6.8.9以上版本的虎友们，除了分享单只股票涨跌幅之外，还可以分享你赚、亏了多少钱哦）【活动奖励】 凡是参与晒单的虎友均可获得66虎币，除此之外，还有机会获得以下奖励： 人气奖：我们会选取评论获赞量最高的虎友赠予小虎玩偶一个 暴富奖：我们会选取晒单收益最高的虎友，赠予期权免佣卡一张 吃土奖：我们会选取晒单收益最低的虎友，赠予小虎眼罩一个 欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的期权表现如何？晒晒你赚/亏了多少钱？以及近期有什么操作计划？多重豪礼等你来！ 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n京东发布618最终战报：累计下单金额超3438亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-19 00:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>北京时间6月19日凌晨消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>发布618最终战报：2021年6月1日0时至6月18日24时，2021“京东618，18周年庆”累计下单金额超3438亿元，创下新的纪录！</p>\n<p>这是给消费者带来最佳体验的最好印证；也是创造良好运营环境以及大量帮扶措施，帮助合作伙伴实现强劲增长的最好成果；更是助力乡村振兴、促进就业、降低碳排放，为社会创造更多价值的最好体现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bdbbcff030412e8bba7e0b9f389964c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bdbbcff030412e8bba7e0b9f389964c","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146581762","content_text":"北京时间6月19日凌晨消息，京东发布618最终战报：2021年6月1日0时至6月18日24时，2021“京东618，18周年庆”累计下单金额超3438亿元，创下新的纪录！\n这是给消费者带来最佳体验的最好印证；也是创造良好运营环境以及大量帮扶措施，帮助合作伙伴实现强劲增长的最好成果；更是助力乡村振兴、促进就业、降低碳排放，为社会创造更多价值的最好体现。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168617817,"gmtCreate":1623973855539,"gmtModify":1631890247684,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559715451352051","idStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好中国不等于看好A股[傲娇]&nbsp;","listText":"看好中国不等于看好A股[傲娇]&nbsp;","text":"看好中国不等于看好A股[傲娇]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168617817","repostId":"1133403338","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133403338","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623923469,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133403338?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 17:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"野村眼里未来十年的中国股市：表现将超过其他国家平均水平","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133403338","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"野村认为，目前全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注；相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价；投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n\n野村发表长篇报告，看多中国股市未来1","content":"<blockquote>\n 野村认为，目前全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注；相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价；投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n</blockquote>\n<p>野村发表长篇报告，看多中国股市未来10年发展前景。</p>\n<p>野村认为，随着中国经济进一步扩张，投资中国股市将使海外投资者直接接触有14亿消费者的单一市场，更多的投资比例将提供更高的回报和风险分散。</p>\n<p>相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价。从传统的投资方法出发，投资者将看到未来数年中国A股的股价比美股便宜，投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。</p>\n<p>全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注</p>\n<p>野村表示，中国股市在MSCI全球指数中的占比在过去10年显著提高，权重已从2011年的2.2%上升至2021年的4.9%。随着中国向海外投资者开放市场，这一上升趋势未来还将延续。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffbd0de1420d3241eea93df19ad8a3c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在占比提高的同时，中国经济依然在快速增长，<b>有望超越美国成为全球第一大经济体。</b></p>\n<p>IMF此前预测认为，从现在到2026年，中国经济将有望增长45%。同期美国经济增长将增长22%。如果预测成真且人民币继续升值，<b>中国成为全球第一大经济体的时间点最早或提前到2026年。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fb483128bd2f37af317dfca1676aa6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>尽管中国的规模和广度如此之大，但全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注，在大多数全球投资组合中，中国的代表性不足。</p>\n<p>野村研究发现，全球最大主权财富基金Norges（挪威主权财富基金）、美国最大退休基金CalPERS（加州公务员退休基金）等全球知名基金所配置的中国资产占比不到4%。Norges对中国的投资规模甚至低于对英国等发达市场的投资。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4874f2dfacfdc1e32c95facb0efefe2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这可能是因为MSCI等全球指数编制公司将中国归入新兴市场类别，并因外资所有权限制和自由流通限制而限制了中国的权重。</p>\n<p>同时基金的“母国偏好”也加剧了这一现象的发展，全球最大的养老金和主权基金，如GPIF(日本)、NPS(韩国)、CPPIB(加拿大)和Norges(挪威)，更倾向于投资于本国市场，而不是其他地区。</p>\n<p><b>但随着信息壁垒减少、对冲技术更加先进，以及许多当地股市规模较小，“母国偏好”的概念已经过时。现在是时候将中国视作独立的资产类别，并加码资源和资金投入。</b></p>\n<p>野村表示，全球最大的一些养老金和主权基金最近几年开始重新调整市场权重，增加对国际股票的敞口。随着全球各大养老基金这一过程的实施，<b>中国股市将成为最大的资产类别受益者。</b></p>\n<p>加拿大退休金计划投资委员会（CPPIB）是其中的典型代表。该机构2016年对中国的投资比例不到5%，目前占比已提升至13%。最新计划则是到2025年将中国投资的比例提高至六分之一（17%）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb392f57de9e1a839ae622c4bf7d4aad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>投资中国存在显著的多元化好处</p>\n<p>野村表示，投资中国股市还存在明显的多元化好处。</p>\n<p>中国GDP在过去10年里上涨了1倍多，这种变化也反映在中国股市的构成占比上。</p>\n<p>在MSCI中国指数中，金融类股票的占比已经从2011年的近35%降至目前的14.5%。</p>\n<p>与此同时，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>为代表的非必须消费品的占比从2011年的6.2%攀升至目前的34%。而以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>为代表的通信服务板块占比也攀升至20.5%。医疗保健行业占比同样在提升，从10年前的不到1%上升到目前的6.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79675430d519dd1770875f4fe7bc1575\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>野村强调，阿里、腾讯等中国互联网巨头几乎完全是国内企业。这与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>显著不同，后者超过四分之三的收入来自英国以外的国家。</p>\n<p>这意味中国股市在其他地区的收入流失有限，<b>海外投资者可以通过直接投资中国股市来改善风险分散化。</b></p>\n<p><b>投资中国股市也可以让海外投资者直接接触到有14亿消费者的单一实体市场，更多的投资比例将为资产所有者提供更高的回报和风险分散。</b></p>\n<p>中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价</p>\n<p><b>野村表示，相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价。</b></p>\n<p>在盈利预期增长方面，路透终端统计显示，目前市场分析师给予MSCI中国指数2021—2023年的年盈利增长都在16%以上，2020—2022年的年复合增长更是高达17.5%。这较MSCI美国和MSCI日本同期预测值要稳定的多。后两个市场在这一时期的利润增长波动较大，到2023年利润增长将大幅放缓。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82979d23d9b99c03223f0fbc05a21f2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">与美国股市相比，中国股市还具备显著的折价。美国与亚洲的估值差距目前处于6年来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>MSCI美国指数的2021年预期市盈率已经攀升至22.8。与此同时，MSCI亚洲(不包括日本)和MSCI中国的2021年市盈率分别为15.8和15.9。<b>这意味着美国股票的投资者需要支付比亚洲地区股票高43%的溢价。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c85d1a251d7013a9faa5d518c278ed9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">在PEG角度，相关结论也是类似的。</p>\n<p>按照目前市场预期数据，MSCI中国指数2021—2023年EPS的年复合增长将达到16.7%，而该指数2021年的市盈率仅为15.9。这使得MSCI中国的PEG指标为0.95。</p>\n<p>与之相对，市场预期MSCI美国指数同期的EPS增长仅为10.8%，而指数2021年的市盈率则高达22.8，这使得MSCI美国的PEG比率达到2.11，<b>是MSCI中国的两倍多。</b></p>\n<p>野村同时提醒投资者，<b>目前市场对于MSCI美国的盈利并没有反映出美国可能的公司税新政。</b></p>\n<p>拜登的民主党政府一个重大政策选择就是提高公司税。如果美国政府上调企业税率，目前的盈利预期将受到挤压，美国股市的PEG比率将进一步上升。</p>\n<p>野村总结称，从传统的投资方法出发，投资者将看到未来数年中国A股的股价比美股便宜，投资者应当摒弃固有的偏见，<b>在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>野村眼里未来十年的中国股市：表现将超过其他国家平均水平</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n野村眼里未来十年的中国股市：表现将超过其他国家平均水平\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-17 17:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>野村认为，目前全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注；相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价；投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n\n野村发表长篇报告，看多中国股市未来10年发展前景。\n野村认为，随着中国经济进一步扩张，投资中国股市将使海外投资者直接接触有14亿消费者的单一市场，更多的投资比例将提供更高的回报和风险分散。\n相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133403338","content_text":"野村认为，目前全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注；相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价；投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n\n野村发表长篇报告，看多中国股市未来10年发展前景。\n野村认为，随着中国经济进一步扩张，投资中国股市将使海外投资者直接接触有14亿消费者的单一市场，更多的投资比例将提供更高的回报和风险分散。\n相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价。从传统的投资方法出发，投资者将看到未来数年中国A股的股价比美股便宜，投资者应当在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。\n全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注\n野村表示，中国股市在MSCI全球指数中的占比在过去10年显著提高，权重已从2011年的2.2%上升至2021年的4.9%。随着中国向海外投资者开放市场，这一上升趋势未来还将延续。\n\n在占比提高的同时，中国经济依然在快速增长，有望超越美国成为全球第一大经济体。\nIMF此前预测认为，从现在到2026年，中国经济将有望增长45%。同期美国经济增长将增长22%。如果预测成真且人民币继续升值，中国成为全球第一大经济体的时间点最早或提前到2026年。\n尽管中国的规模和广度如此之大，但全球投资者没有给予中国应有的关注，在大多数全球投资组合中，中国的代表性不足。\n野村研究发现，全球最大主权财富基金Norges（挪威主权财富基金）、美国最大退休基金CalPERS（加州公务员退休基金）等全球知名基金所配置的中国资产占比不到4%。Norges对中国的投资规模甚至低于对英国等发达市场的投资。\n这可能是因为MSCI等全球指数编制公司将中国归入新兴市场类别，并因外资所有权限制和自由流通限制而限制了中国的权重。\n同时基金的“母国偏好”也加剧了这一现象的发展，全球最大的养老金和主权基金，如GPIF(日本)、NPS(韩国)、CPPIB(加拿大)和Norges(挪威)，更倾向于投资于本国市场，而不是其他地区。\n但随着信息壁垒减少、对冲技术更加先进，以及许多当地股市规模较小，“母国偏好”的概念已经过时。现在是时候将中国视作独立的资产类别，并加码资源和资金投入。\n野村表示，全球最大的一些养老金和主权基金最近几年开始重新调整市场权重，增加对国际股票的敞口。随着全球各大养老基金这一过程的实施，中国股市将成为最大的资产类别受益者。\n加拿大退休金计划投资委员会（CPPIB）是其中的典型代表。该机构2016年对中国的投资比例不到5%，目前占比已提升至13%。最新计划则是到2025年将中国投资的比例提高至六分之一（17%）。\n\n投资中国存在显著的多元化好处\n野村表示，投资中国股市还存在明显的多元化好处。\n中国GDP在过去10年里上涨了1倍多，这种变化也反映在中国股市的构成占比上。\n在MSCI中国指数中，金融类股票的占比已经从2011年的近35%降至目前的14.5%。\n与此同时，以阿里巴巴为代表的非必须消费品的占比从2011年的6.2%攀升至目前的34%。而以腾讯为代表的通信服务板块占比也攀升至20.5%。医疗保健行业占比同样在提升，从10年前的不到1%上升到目前的6.7%。\n\n野村强调，阿里、腾讯等中国互联网巨头几乎完全是国内企业。这与亚马逊、苹果显著不同，后者超过四分之三的收入来自英国以外的国家。\n这意味中国股市在其他地区的收入流失有限，海外投资者可以通过直接投资中国股市来改善风险分散化。\n投资中国股市也可以让海外投资者直接接触到有14亿消费者的单一实体市场，更多的投资比例将为资产所有者提供更高的回报和风险分散。\n中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价\n野村表示，相比于美股，中国A股的盈利增长水平更好，却存在明显估值折价。\n在盈利预期增长方面，路透终端统计显示，目前市场分析师给予MSCI中国指数2021—2023年的年盈利增长都在16%以上，2020—2022年的年复合增长更是高达17.5%。这较MSCI美国和MSCI日本同期预测值要稳定的多。后两个市场在这一时期的利润增长波动较大，到2023年利润增长将大幅放缓。\n与美国股市相比，中国股市还具备显著的折价。美国与亚洲的估值差距目前处于6年来的最高水平。\nMSCI美国指数的2021年预期市盈率已经攀升至22.8。与此同时，MSCI亚洲(不包括日本)和MSCI中国的2021年市盈率分别为15.8和15.9。这意味着美国股票的投资者需要支付比亚洲地区股票高43%的溢价。在PEG角度，相关结论也是类似的。\n按照目前市场预期数据，MSCI中国指数2021—2023年EPS的年复合增长将达到16.7%，而该指数2021年的市盈率仅为15.9。这使得MSCI中国的PEG指标为0.95。\n与之相对，市场预期MSCI美国指数同期的EPS增长仅为10.8%，而指数2021年的市盈率则高达22.8，这使得MSCI美国的PEG比率达到2.11，是MSCI中国的两倍多。\n野村同时提醒投资者，目前市场对于MSCI美国的盈利并没有反映出美国可能的公司税新政。\n拜登的民主党政府一个重大政策选择就是提高公司税。如果美国政府上调企业税率，目前的盈利预期将受到挤压，美国股市的PEG比率将进一步上升。\n野村总结称，从传统的投资方法出发，投资者将看到未来数年中国A股的股价比美股便宜，投资者应当摒弃固有的偏见，在基准指数给出指引之前就开始加码中国A股。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163242241,"gmtCreate":1623887389483,"gmtModify":1631890247688,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559715451352051","idStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"下周新系统[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"下周新系统[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"下周新系统[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163242241","repostId":"1145772293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160491673,"gmtCreate":1623803664592,"gmtModify":1631890247693,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559715451352051","idStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"够喝一壶","listText":"够喝一壶","text":"够喝一壶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160491673","repostId":"1188387561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187636038,"gmtCreate":1623751581524,"gmtModify":1631890247697,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559715451352051","idStr":"3559715451352051"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"IPO赚不到就没啥钱了","listText":"IPO赚不到就没啥钱了","text":"IPO赚不到就没啥钱了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187636038","repostId":"1126133700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}