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止盈止损从容

2020-08-07

a股创业板的pe好像比纳指高吧？

当心美股估值泡沫，警惕回调风险

止盈止损从容

10-02

免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号

查看详情：免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号巴菲特Q2买了什么？即刻追踪伯克希尔最新投资组合！此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号

止盈止损从容

08-29

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎说英股:用ETP进行3X做多做空明星科技股和指数

止盈止损从容

08-24

杠杆基金做空

@小虎说英股:用ETP进行3X做多做空明星科技股和指数

止盈止损从容

2022-02-07

$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ 技术性调整

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Shares的交易所交易产品提供当日最火热的投资产品的日线多头(+5倍、+3倍、+2倍) 与空头(-1倍、-2倍、-3倍)投资机会。比较热门的LEVERAGE SHARES ETP 就是5X多纳斯达克100指数：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ5.UK\">$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(QQQ5.UK)$</a>&nbsp;和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5QQQ.UK\">$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(5QQQ.UK)$</a>&nbsp;以及3X多特斯拉<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSL3.UK\">$LEVSHARES 3X TESLA ETP(TSL3.UK)$</a>&nbsp;5X多标普五百<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY5.UK\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 UCITS ETF(SPY5.UK)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;LEVERAGE SHARES 全ETP列表在这里","text":"以下内容是英国资产管理公司和ETP发行公司LEVERAGE SHARES的官方内容关于他们证券。空头及杠杆交易所交易产品Leverage Shares公司是提供空头及杠杆交易所交易产品(英:ETP)买卖机会的首家金融公司。 近年，投资者对投资产品的安全性、透明性、简易性的要求有所提高，因此本公司于2017年创立此 类产品。Leverage Shares的交易所交易产品提供当日最火热的投资产品的日线多头(+5倍、+3倍、+2倍) 与空头(-1倍、-2倍、-3倍)投资机会。比较热门的LEVERAGE SHARES ETP 就是5X多纳斯达克100指数：$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(QQQ5.UK)$ 和$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(5QQQ.UK)$ 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全ETP列表在这里","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c5031b0e0d0c61ba535d85387adffa","width":"632","height":"245"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746c394dda7e814b0399f7e985e9df84","width":"632","height":"472"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bccdad6d05096d7143552be95b1535","width":"632","height":"458"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635636966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341561665085512,"gmtCreate":1724429599392,"gmtModify":1724430539633,"author":{"id":"3558642797357978","authorId":"3558642797357978","name":"止盈止损从容","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558642797357978","authorIdStr":"3558642797357978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"杠杆基金做空","listText":"杠杆基金做空","text":"杠杆基金做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341561665085512","repostId":"635636966","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":635636966,"gmtCreate":1646970234571,"gmtModify":1646998898186,"author":{"id":"3528966054893519","authorId":"3528966054893519","name":"小虎说英股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444754ad4cb8cbfaf0dcb4fb2537c79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528966054893519","authorIdStr":"3528966054893519"},"themes":[],"title":"用ETP进行3X做多做空明星科技股和指数","htmlText":"以下内容是英国资产管理公司和ETP发行公司LEVERAGE 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Shares的交易所交易产品提供当日最火热的投资产品的日线多头(+5倍、+3倍、+2倍) 与空头(-1倍、-2倍、-3倍)投资机会。比较热门的LEVERAGE SHARES ETP 就是5X多纳斯达克100指数：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ5.UK\">$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(QQQ5.UK)$</a>&nbsp;和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5QQQ.UK\">$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(5QQQ.UK)$</a>&nbsp;以及3X多特斯拉<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSL3.UK\">$LEVSHARES 3X TESLA ETP(TSL3.UK)$</a>&nbsp;5X多标普五百<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY5.UK\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 UCITS ETF(SPY5.UK)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;LEVERAGE SHARES 全ETP列表在这里","text":"以下内容是英国资产管理公司和ETP发行公司LEVERAGE SHARES的官方内容关于他们证券。空头及杠杆交易所交易产品Leverage Shares公司是提供空头及杠杆交易所交易产品(英:ETP)买卖机会的首家金融公司。 近年，投资者对投资产品的安全性、透明性、简易性的要求有所提高，因此本公司于2017年创立此 类产品。Leverage Shares的交易所交易产品提供当日最火热的投资产品的日线多头(+5倍、+3倍、+2倍) 与空头(-1倍、-2倍、-3倍)投资机会。比较热门的LEVERAGE SHARES ETP 就是5X多纳斯达克100指数：$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(QQQ5.UK)$ 和$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(5QQQ.UK)$ 以及3X多特斯拉$LEVSHARES 3X TESLA ETP(TSL3.UK)$ 5X多标普五百$SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF(SPY5.UK)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ LEVERAGE SHARES 全ETP列表在这里","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c5031b0e0d0c61ba535d85387adffa","width":"632","height":"245"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746c394dda7e814b0399f7e985e9df84","width":"632","height":"472"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bccdad6d05096d7143552be95b1535","width":"632","height":"458"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635636966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633523766,"gmtCreate":1644231671300,"gmtModify":1644231671300,"author":{"id":"3558642797357978","authorId":"3558642797357978","name":"止盈止损从容","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558642797357978","authorIdStr":"3558642797357978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>技术性调整","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>技术性调整","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ 技术性调整","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633523766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944142252,"gmtCreate":1596811146376,"gmtModify":1704213746212,"author":{"id":"3558642797357978","authorId":"3558642797357978","name":"止盈止损从容","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558642797357978","authorIdStr":"3558642797357978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"a股创业板的pe好像比纳指高吧？","listText":"a股创业板的pe好像比纳指高吧？","text":"a股创业板的pe好像比纳指高吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944142252","repostId":"1133697351","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133697351","pubTimestamp":1596789949,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133697351?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-07 16:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"当心美股估值泡沫，警惕回调风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133697351","media":"期货日报","summary":"7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美","content":"<div>\n<p>7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美联储美元加码宽松的情况下，美股估值存在调整的风险。\n展望后市，美股调整的风险并没有完全消除，尤其是盈利下滑带来的估值去泡沫调整还将持续。影响股指走势的因素：一是企业盈利，这和经济增长前景有很大关系；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hf3xGxJ6YKbo1jR3OInrgg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"qihuoribao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当心美股估值泡沫，警惕回调风险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n当心美股估值泡沫，警惕回调风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-07 16:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hf3xGxJ6YKbo1jR3OInrgg><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美联储美元加码宽松的情况下，美股估值存在调整的风险。\n展望后市，美股调整的风险并没有完全消除，尤其是盈利下滑带来的估值去泡沫调整还将持续。影响股指走势的因素：一是企业盈利，这和经济增长前景有很大关系；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hf3xGxJ6YKbo1jR3OInrgg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hf3xGxJ6YKbo1jR3OInrgg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133697351","content_text":"7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美联储美元加码宽松的情况下，美股估值存在调整的风险。\n展望后市，美股调整的风险并没有完全消除，尤其是盈利下滑带来的估值去泡沫调整还将持续。影响股指走势的因素：一是企业盈利，这和经济增长前景有很大关系；二是流动性和信用扩张，这与无风险利率变动有很大关系；三是股票估值，由于估值和市场利率有很大关系，如果流动性变化，那么也会带来股指估值的变动。\n疫情抑制美国经济复苏力度\n因疫情持续，且疫苗上市还需要时间，所以美国经济预期不会出现强劲复苏。经济数据显示，美国制造业复苏还在持续。7月美国制造业ISM采购经理人指数为54.2，高于市场预期的53.5，创2019年3月以来最高，6月前值曾以52.6创2019年4月以来最高。\n但是服务业消费需求与复工进度还是受到疫情影响，美国红皮书商业零售同比降幅再度扩大至-8.7%，并且7月消费者信心指数也出现回落。根据Apple Map的统计数据，目前美国是交通出行修复状况最弱的国家，修复至四成左右。\n就业市场修复也在放缓，甚至倒退。截至7月25日当周，美国初请失业金人数连续第二周增加，达到140万人，而且这还不包括80多万份大规模失业援助申请。\n关注救济政策对经济的影响\n7月30日，美联储将基准利率维持在接近零的水平不变，并誓言将动用所有工具来支持受疫情冲击的经济。发布的政策决议与此前相比几无变化，继续维稳各项政策措施的同时依旧强调了疫情对经济的冲击，但也重申之前采取的措施已经产生效果，而未来的政策走向仍要基于疫情发展而定，因而购债力度将维持在当前水平。\n值得关注的是疫情对经济的“反通胀”作用，这意味着美元流动性泛滥继续推动铜价的难度会越来越大，只有通胀大幅攀升，铜等周期性商品上涨空间才会打开。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，经济的复苏道路将在很大程度上取决于疫情的发展进程。这场仍在暴虐的公共卫生危机将在短期内严重影响经济活动、工作和通胀，并对中期经济远景构成相当大的危险。\n8月3日，美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯表示，美联储在任何时候可能都不会动用负利率这种政策选项。眼下包括补充性失业救济和暂停驱逐令在内的救济政策即将到期，总需求问题正在酝酿之中，财政政策对于推动经济复苏至关重要。\n需当心下半年美股估值回调\n为应对疫情冲击，美国推出大规模财政刺激政策，让国会成了决定货币供应量的掌舵人，“直升机撒钱”措施推动M2货币供应出现史上最大升幅，这实际上利好股票。目前，美股领涨的依然是成长型股票和科技股，都是货币流动性的受益者。\n然而，因为美联储宽松政策没有加码，美股估值会相应调整。截至8月4日，标普500指数ShillerPERatio依旧高达30.45倍，还高于1930年大萧条时期“黑色星期二”时的最高纪录，仅仅低于2000年互联网泡沫时期创下的纪录高点44.19倍。\n图为标普500指数ShillerPE\n美国企业盈利下滑不可避免\n与中国不同的是，疫情对于美国经济和企业盈利的影响更多体现在二季度。虽然一季度标普500EPS也同比大幅下滑13.4％，但其中一半都是银行计提贷款损失拨备影响前置所致，因此，二季度大概率是美股盈利年内最差季度。根据Factset汇总预期，目前市场预计标普500指数二季度净利润（可比口径）同比下降-45％，较一季度大幅下滑；预计纳斯达克综指二季度同比下滑-38%。除EPS外，标普500指数和纳斯达克EBIT利润预计同样下滑明显，标普500指数及纳斯达克综指均下滑32%，反映了疫情较严重阶段的冲击。\n不过，由于美股回购的力度在二季度卷土重来，这对美股估值挤泡沫调整有对冲作用，因此美股表现相对坚挺。不过，可以确定的是美股股息分红大概率会下降。美国股市是一个成熟的市场，是按国际惯例按季分红，每年上市公司赚到的利润有50%—70%是用于现金分红，但可以确定的是美股股息分红大概率会下降。\n芝商所高级经济学家Bluford Putnam和Erik Norland的研究结果显示，尽管目前标普500的股价从低点反弹了25%，且接近历史高点，但跟4月初相比，2028年、2029年和2030年股息支付的情况并不乐观。截至7月初， 2030年的预期股息支付为58.1指数点，略低于2019年的预期水平，并且比4月初股息指数触底时的预期水平低约9%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":944142252,"gmtCreate":1596811146376,"gmtModify":1704213746212,"author":{"id":"3558642797357978","authorId":"3558642797357978","name":"止盈止损从容","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558642797357978","authorIdStr":"3558642797357978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"a股创业板的pe好像比纳指高吧？","listText":"a股创业板的pe好像比纳指高吧？","text":"a股创业板的pe好像比纳指高吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944142252","repostId":"1133697351","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133697351","pubTimestamp":1596789949,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133697351?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-07 16:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"当心美股估值泡沫，警惕回调风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133697351","media":"期货日报","summary":"7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美","content":"<div>\n<p>7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美联储美元加码宽松的情况下，美股估值存在调整的风险。\n展望后市，美股调整的风险并没有完全消除，尤其是盈利下滑带来的估值去泡沫调整还将持续。影响股指走势的因素：一是企业盈利，这和经济增长前景有很大关系；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hf3xGxJ6YKbo1jR3OInrgg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"qihuoribao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当心美股估值泡沫，警惕回调风险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n当心美股估值泡沫，警惕回调风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-07 16:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hf3xGxJ6YKbo1jR3OInrgg><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美联储美元加码宽松的情况下，美股估值存在调整的风险。\n展望后市，美股调整的风险并没有完全消除，尤其是盈利下滑带来的估值去泡沫调整还将持续。影响股指走势的因素：一是企业盈利，这和经济增长前景有很大关系；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hf3xGxJ6YKbo1jR3OInrgg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hf3xGxJ6YKbo1jR3OInrgg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133697351","content_text":"7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美联储美元加码宽松的情况下，美股估值存在调整的风险。\n展望后市，美股调整的风险并没有完全消除，尤其是盈利下滑带来的估值去泡沫调整还将持续。影响股指走势的因素：一是企业盈利，这和经济增长前景有很大关系；二是流动性和信用扩张，这与无风险利率变动有很大关系；三是股票估值，由于估值和市场利率有很大关系，如果流动性变化，那么也会带来股指估值的变动。\n疫情抑制美国经济复苏力度\n因疫情持续，且疫苗上市还需要时间，所以美国经济预期不会出现强劲复苏。经济数据显示，美国制造业复苏还在持续。7月美国制造业ISM采购经理人指数为54.2，高于市场预期的53.5，创2019年3月以来最高，6月前值曾以52.6创2019年4月以来最高。\n但是服务业消费需求与复工进度还是受到疫情影响，美国红皮书商业零售同比降幅再度扩大至-8.7%，并且7月消费者信心指数也出现回落。根据Apple Map的统计数据，目前美国是交通出行修复状况最弱的国家，修复至四成左右。\n就业市场修复也在放缓，甚至倒退。截至7月25日当周，美国初请失业金人数连续第二周增加，达到140万人，而且这还不包括80多万份大规模失业援助申请。\n关注救济政策对经济的影响\n7月30日，美联储将基准利率维持在接近零的水平不变，并誓言将动用所有工具来支持受疫情冲击的经济。发布的政策决议与此前相比几无变化，继续维稳各项政策措施的同时依旧强调了疫情对经济的冲击，但也重申之前采取的措施已经产生效果，而未来的政策走向仍要基于疫情发展而定，因而购债力度将维持在当前水平。\n值得关注的是疫情对经济的“反通胀”作用，这意味着美元流动性泛滥继续推动铜价的难度会越来越大，只有通胀大幅攀升，铜等周期性商品上涨空间才会打开。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，经济的复苏道路将在很大程度上取决于疫情的发展进程。这场仍在暴虐的公共卫生危机将在短期内严重影响经济活动、工作和通胀，并对中期经济远景构成相当大的危险。\n8月3日，美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯表示，美联储在任何时候可能都不会动用负利率这种政策选项。眼下包括补充性失业救济和暂停驱逐令在内的救济政策即将到期，总需求问题正在酝酿之中，财政政策对于推动经济复苏至关重要。\n需当心下半年美股估值回调\n为应对疫情冲击，美国推出大规模财政刺激政策，让国会成了决定货币供应量的掌舵人，“直升机撒钱”措施推动M2货币供应出现史上最大升幅，这实际上利好股票。目前，美股领涨的依然是成长型股票和科技股，都是货币流动性的受益者。\n然而，因为美联储宽松政策没有加码，美股估值会相应调整。截至8月4日，标普500指数ShillerPERatio依旧高达30.45倍，还高于1930年大萧条时期“黑色星期二”时的最高纪录，仅仅低于2000年互联网泡沫时期创下的纪录高点44.19倍。\n图为标普500指数ShillerPE\n美国企业盈利下滑不可避免\n与中国不同的是，疫情对于美国经济和企业盈利的影响更多体现在二季度。虽然一季度标普500EPS也同比大幅下滑13.4％，但其中一半都是银行计提贷款损失拨备影响前置所致，因此，二季度大概率是美股盈利年内最差季度。根据Factset汇总预期，目前市场预计标普500指数二季度净利润（可比口径）同比下降-45％，较一季度大幅下滑；预计纳斯达克综指二季度同比下滑-38%。除EPS外，标普500指数和纳斯达克EBIT利润预计同样下滑明显，标普500指数及纳斯达克综指均下滑32%，反映了疫情较严重阶段的冲击。\n不过，由于美股回购的力度在二季度卷土重来，这对美股估值挤泡沫调整有对冲作用，因此美股表现相对坚挺。不过，可以确定的是美股股息分红大概率会下降。美国股市是一个成熟的市场，是按国际惯例按季分红，每年上市公司赚到的利润有50%—70%是用于现金分红，但可以确定的是美股股息分红大概率会下降。\n芝商所高级经济学家Bluford Putnam和Erik Norland的研究结果显示，尽管目前标普500的股价从低点反弹了25%，且接近历史高点，但跟4月初相比，2028年、2029年和2030年股息支付的情况并不乐观。截至7月初， 2030年的预期股息支付为58.1指数点，略低于2019年的预期水平，并且比4月初股息指数触底时的预期水平低约9%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355702062997816,"gmtCreate":1727843301417,"gmtModify":1727848295343,"author":{"id":"3558642797357978","authorId":"3558642797357978","name":"止盈止损从容","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558642797357978","authorIdStr":"3558642797357978"},"themes":[],"title":"免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号","htmlText":"查看详情： <a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/marketing/TBNZdashihao?actionID=31b51529f9597d1dc37cb407a705ba02&amp;skin=2&amp;os=iOS&amp;account_id=6132004&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=5a8758f2497db44102a41c80170caa9b&amp;invite=76JYJF&amp;lang=zh_CN\">免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号</a> 巴菲特Q2买了什么？即刻追踪伯克希尔最新投资组合！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情： <a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/marketing/TBNZdashihao?actionID=31b51529f9597d1dc37cb407a705ba02&amp;skin=2&amp;os=iOS&amp;account_id=6132004&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=5a8758f2497db44102a41c80170caa9b&amp;invite=76JYJF&amp;lang=zh_CN\">免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号</a> 巴菲特Q2买了什么？即刻追踪伯克希尔最新投资组合！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情： 免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号 巴菲特Q2买了什么？即刻追踪伯克希尔最新投资组合！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff98eccfaff055c5a7c86bee57069e0c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355702062997816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343488217956456,"gmtCreate":1724888690081,"gmtModify":1724894668467,"author":{"id":"3558642797357978","authorId":"3558642797357978","name":"止盈止损从容","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558642797357978","authorIdStr":"3558642797357978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343488217956456","repostId":"635636966","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":635636966,"gmtCreate":1646970234571,"gmtModify":1646998898186,"author":{"id":"3528966054893519","authorId":"3528966054893519","name":"小虎说英股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444754ad4cb8cbfaf0dcb4fb2537c79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528966054893519","authorIdStr":"3528966054893519"},"themes":[],"title":"用ETP进行3X做多做空明星科技股和指数","htmlText":"以下内容是英国资产管理公司和ETP发行公司LEVERAGE SHARES的官方内容关于他们证券。空头及杠杆交易所交易产品Leverage Shares公司是提供空头及杠杆交易所交易产品(英:ETP)买卖机会的首家金融公司。 近年，投资者对投资产品的安全性、透明性、简易性的要求有所提高，因此本公司于2017年创立此 类产品。Leverage Shares的交易所交易产品提供当日最火热的投资产品的日线多头(+5倍、+3倍、+2倍) 与空头(-1倍、-2倍、-3倍)投资机会。比较热门的LEVERAGE SHARES ETP 就是5X多纳斯达克100指数：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ5.UK\">$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(QQQ5.UK)$</a>&nbsp;和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5QQQ.UK\">$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(5QQQ.UK)$</a>&nbsp;以及3X多特斯拉<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSL3.UK\">$LEVSHARES 3X TESLA ETP(TSL3.UK)$</a>&nbsp;5X多标普五百<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY5.UK\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 UCITS ETF(SPY5.UK)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;LEVERAGE SHARES 全ETP列表在这里","listText":"以下内容是英国资产管理公司和ETP发行公司LEVERAGE SHARES的官方内容关于他们证券。空头及杠杆交易所交易产品Leverage Shares公司是提供空头及杠杆交易所交易产品(英:ETP)买卖机会的首家金融公司。 近年，投资者对投资产品的安全性、透明性、简易性的要求有所提高，因此本公司于2017年创立此 类产品。Leverage Shares的交易所交易产品提供当日最火热的投资产品的日线多头(+5倍、+3倍、+2倍) 与空头(-1倍、-2倍、-3倍)投资机会。比较热门的LEVERAGE SHARES ETP 就是5X多纳斯达克100指数：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ5.UK\">$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(QQQ5.UK)$</a>&nbsp;和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5QQQ.UK\">$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(5QQQ.UK)$</a>&nbsp;以及3X多特斯拉<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSL3.UK\">$LEVSHARES 3X TESLA ETP(TSL3.UK)$</a>&nbsp;5X多标普五百<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY5.UK\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 UCITS ETF(SPY5.UK)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;LEVERAGE SHARES 全ETP列表在这里","text":"以下内容是英国资产管理公司和ETP发行公司LEVERAGE SHARES的官方内容关于他们证券。空头及杠杆交易所交易产品Leverage Shares公司是提供空头及杠杆交易所交易产品(英:ETP)买卖机会的首家金融公司。 近年，投资者对投资产品的安全性、透明性、简易性的要求有所提高，因此本公司于2017年创立此 类产品。Leverage Shares的交易所交易产品提供当日最火热的投资产品的日线多头(+5倍、+3倍、+2倍) 与空头(-1倍、-2倍、-3倍)投资机会。比较热门的LEVERAGE SHARES ETP 就是5X多纳斯达克100指数：$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(QQQ5.UK)$ 和$LS 5X LONG QQQ ETP(5QQQ.UK)$ 以及3X多特斯拉$LEVSHARES 3X TESLA ETP(TSL3.UK)$ 5X多标普五百$SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF(SPY5.UK)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ LEVERAGE SHARES 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