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啥名字好呢

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啥名字好呢

2024-07-30

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

美联储降息在即，当心首降沦为“枷锁”！

啥名字好呢

2023-08-08

$理想汽车(LI)$ 财报这么好居然跌了，看不懂[喷血]

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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144560&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>彭博编委会最近撰文表示，金融市场等待的不是美联储的一次降息，而是进一步的政策转向，但这种期待让美联储下一次行动的重要性过高，并且可能会在条件变化时束缚住美联储的手脚。 以下是彭博编委会的观点：\n美联储主席鲍威尔最近表示，在降息之前他希望看到更多关于通胀的好消息。他似乎得到了他想要的结果。\n6月份的总体CPI年率降至3%，而5月份总体CPI年率为3.3%，核心CPI年率则从3.4%放缓至3.3%。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144560&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce609e9c6e7c8358f07634a7a505663e","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144560&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2455604660","content_text":"彭博编委会最近撰文表示，金融市场等待的不是美联储的一次降息，而是进一步的政策转向，但这种期待让美联储下一次行动的重要性过高，并且可能会在条件变化时束缚住美联储的手脚。 以下是彭博编委会的观点：\n美联储主席鲍威尔最近表示，在降息之前他希望看到更多关于通胀的好消息。他似乎得到了他想要的结果。\n6月份的总体CPI年率降至3%，而5月份总体CPI年率为3.3%，核心CPI年率则从3.4%放缓至3.3%。投资者随即提高了对美联储将在9月份降息的预期，并开始猜测降息是否可能就在本月末发生。\n没有理由排除7月或9月降息的可能性。考虑到经济放缓的风险，现在适度放宽货币政策似乎是正确的。\n虽然通胀仍然处于高位，但最新的数据表明，略低的政策利率应该仍然具有足够限制性，以达到美联储希望通胀回到2%的目标。美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率录得2.8%，虽然这一数值比预期略高，但也确认了与去年相比经济已经明显降温。\n在本周的美联储政策会议上，政策制定者们可以合理地得出结论——短期利率可以被削减。\n然而，有一个问题比现在或两个月后降息更重要，那就是鲍威尔和他的同事们之后的意图是什么。如果他们明智的话，他们会留有余地。\n美联储正确地承诺将依赖数据行动。然而，金融市场期待的不仅是单次降息，而是一个“转向”更低利率的路径。这种看法并不有利，它让美联储下一次行动的重要性过高，并且可能会在条件变化时束缚住美联储的手脚。\n诚然，市场的期望是有逻辑依据的，它源于美联储希望逐步和可预测地调整政策、避免意外发生的愿望。稳定是好的，但渐进主义和数据依赖有时会指向不同的方向。当事实发生变化时，美联储官员需要自由地改变他们的想法。如果他们将政策与某个真实的或想象的时间表绑定在一起，那么最终往往会面临更大且更严重的意外。\n目前5.25%至5.5%的政策利率正在牢牢地抑制需求。尤其是到目前为止一直很顽固的住房通胀已经减弱；除去住房和能源的核心服务通胀是一个受到密切关注的指标，该指标在6月份连续第二个月下降。至关重要的是，之前过热的劳动力市场已经冷却。职位空缺大幅减少，失业率上升至4.1%。风险平衡已经发生了变化，降息的理由看起来很充分。\n关键点在于——如果美联储真的降息，它应该解释这一举措是在数据支持下产生的结果，而不是进一步宽松的前奏。如果后续数据表明通胀稳定在2%以上，那么宽松政策就需要逆转，美联储应当提醒投资者存在这种可能性。\n此外，回到正常政策利率路径的说法假定了美联储知道这个“正常”的数字是多少，但实际上美联储并不知道，也没有其他人知道。最终，只有数据能给出答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":206660841185448,"gmtCreate":1691485853360,"gmtModify":1691486447961,"author":{"id":"3558141885886277","authorId":"3558141885886277","name":"啥名字好呢","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558141885886277","authorIdStr":"3558141885886277"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$&nbsp;</a>财报这么好居然跌了，看不懂[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$&nbsp;</a>财报这么好居然跌了，看不懂[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$ 财报这么好居然跌了，看不懂[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/206660841185448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":333063168884824,"gmtCreate":1722340000184,"gmtModify":1722342886034,"author":{"id":"3558141885886277","authorId":"3558141885886277","name":"啥名字好呢","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558141885886277","authorIdStr":"3558141885886277"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333063168884824","repostId":"2455604660","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2455604660","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1722336336,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2455604660?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-30 18:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美联储降息在即，当心首降沦为“枷锁”！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2455604660","media":"金十数据","summary":"如果美联储真的降息，它应该解释这一举措是在数据支持下产生的结果，而不是进一步宽松的前奏。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>彭博编委会最近撰文表示，金融市场等待的不是美联储的一次降息，而是进一步的政策转向，但这种期待让美联储下一次行动的重要性过高，并且可能会在条件变化时束缚住美联储的手脚。 以下是彭博编委会的观点：</p>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔最近表示，在降息之前他希望看到更多关于通胀的好消息。<strong>他</strong><strong>似乎得到了他想要的结果。</strong></p>\n<p>6月份的总体CPI年率降至3%，而5月份总体CPI年率为3.3%，核心CPI年率则从3.4%放缓至3.3%。投资者随即提高了对美联储将在9月份降息的预期，并开始猜测降息是否可能就在本月末发生。</p>\n<p><strong>没有理由排除7月或9月降息的可能性</strong><strong>。考虑到经济放缓的风险，现在适度放宽货币政策似乎是正确的。</strong></p>\n<p>虽然通胀仍然处于高位，但最新的数据表明，略低的政策利率应该仍然具有足够限制性，以达到美联储希望通胀回到2%的目标。美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率录得2.8%，虽然这一数值比预期略高，但也确认了与去年相比经济已经明显降温。</p>\n<p>在本周的美联储政策会议上，政策制定者们可以合理地得出结论——短期利率可以被削减。</p>\n<p><strong>然而，有一个问题比现在或两个月后降息更重要，</strong><strong>那就是鲍威尔和他的同事们之后的意图是什么。如果他们明智的话，他们会留有余地。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>美联储正确地承诺将依赖数据行动。然而，金融市场期待的不仅是单次降息，而是一个</strong><strong>“转向”更低利率的路径。</strong>这种看法并不有利，它让美联储下一次行动的重要性过高，并且可能会在条件变化时束缚住美联储的手脚。</p>\n<p>诚然，市场的期望是有逻辑依据的，它源于美联储希望逐步和可预测地调整政策、避免意外发生的愿望。稳定是好的，但渐进主义和数据依赖有时会指向不同的方向。当事实发生变化时，美联储官员需要自由地改变他们的想法。<strong>如果他们将政策与某个真实的或想象的时间表绑定在一起，那么最终往往</strong><strong>会面临更大且更严重的意外。</strong></p>\n<p>目前5.25%至5.5%的政策利率正在牢牢地抑制需求。尤其是到目前为止一直很顽固的住房通胀已经减弱；除去住房和能源的核心服务通胀是一个受到密切关注的指标，该指标在6月份连续第二个月下降。至关重要的是，之前过热的劳动力市场已经冷却。职位空缺大幅减少，失业率上升至4.1%。风险平衡已经发生了变化，降息的理由看起来很充分。</p>\n<p>关键点在于——<strong>如果美联储真的降息，它应该解释这一举措是在数据支持下产生的结果</strong><strong>，而不是进一步宽松的前奏。</strong>如果后续数据表明通胀稳定在2%以上，那么宽松政策就需要逆转，美联储应当提醒投资者存在这种可能性。</p>\n<p>此外，<strong>回到正常政策利率路径的</strong><strong>说法假定了美联储知道这个“正常”的数字是多少，但实际上美联储</strong><strong>并不知道</strong>，也没有其他人知道。最终，只有数据能给出答案。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储降息在即，当心首降沦为“枷锁”！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储降息在即，当心首降沦为“枷锁”！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-30 18:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144560&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>彭博编委会最近撰文表示，金融市场等待的不是美联储的一次降息，而是进一步的政策转向，但这种期待让美联储下一次行动的重要性过高，并且可能会在条件变化时束缚住美联储的手脚。 以下是彭博编委会的观点：\n美联储主席鲍威尔最近表示，在降息之前他希望看到更多关于通胀的好消息。他似乎得到了他想要的结果。\n6月份的总体CPI年率降至3%，而5月份总体CPI年率为3.3%，核心CPI年率则从3.4%放缓至3.3%。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144560&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce609e9c6e7c8358f07634a7a505663e","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144560&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2455604660","content_text":"彭博编委会最近撰文表示，金融市场等待的不是美联储的一次降息，而是进一步的政策转向，但这种期待让美联储下一次行动的重要性过高，并且可能会在条件变化时束缚住美联储的手脚。 以下是彭博编委会的观点：\n美联储主席鲍威尔最近表示，在降息之前他希望看到更多关于通胀的好消息。他似乎得到了他想要的结果。\n6月份的总体CPI年率降至3%，而5月份总体CPI年率为3.3%，核心CPI年率则从3.4%放缓至3.3%。投资者随即提高了对美联储将在9月份降息的预期，并开始猜测降息是否可能就在本月末发生。\n没有理由排除7月或9月降息的可能性。考虑到经济放缓的风险，现在适度放宽货币政策似乎是正确的。\n虽然通胀仍然处于高位，但最新的数据表明，略低的政策利率应该仍然具有足够限制性，以达到美联储希望通胀回到2%的目标。美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率录得2.8%，虽然这一数值比预期略高，但也确认了与去年相比经济已经明显降温。\n在本周的美联储政策会议上，政策制定者们可以合理地得出结论——短期利率可以被削减。\n然而，有一个问题比现在或两个月后降息更重要，那就是鲍威尔和他的同事们之后的意图是什么。如果他们明智的话，他们会留有余地。\n美联储正确地承诺将依赖数据行动。然而，金融市场期待的不仅是单次降息，而是一个“转向”更低利率的路径。这种看法并不有利，它让美联储下一次行动的重要性过高，并且可能会在条件变化时束缚住美联储的手脚。\n诚然，市场的期望是有逻辑依据的，它源于美联储希望逐步和可预测地调整政策、避免意外发生的愿望。稳定是好的，但渐进主义和数据依赖有时会指向不同的方向。当事实发生变化时，美联储官员需要自由地改变他们的想法。如果他们将政策与某个真实的或想象的时间表绑定在一起，那么最终往往会面临更大且更严重的意外。\n目前5.25%至5.5%的政策利率正在牢牢地抑制需求。尤其是到目前为止一直很顽固的住房通胀已经减弱；除去住房和能源的核心服务通胀是一个受到密切关注的指标，该指标在6月份连续第二个月下降。至关重要的是，之前过热的劳动力市场已经冷却。职位空缺大幅减少，失业率上升至4.1%。风险平衡已经发生了变化，降息的理由看起来很充分。\n关键点在于——如果美联储真的降息，它应该解释这一举措是在数据支持下产生的结果，而不是进一步宽松的前奏。如果后续数据表明通胀稳定在2%以上，那么宽松政策就需要逆转，美联储应当提醒投资者存在这种可能性。\n此外，回到正常政策利率路径的说法假定了美联储知道这个“正常”的数字是多少，但实际上美联储并不知道，也没有其他人知道。最终，只有数据能给出答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":206660841185448,"gmtCreate":1691485853360,"gmtModify":1691486447961,"author":{"id":"3558141885886277","authorId":"3558141885886277","name":"啥名字好呢","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558141885886277","authorIdStr":"3558141885886277"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$&nbsp;</a>财报这么好居然跌了，看不懂[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$&nbsp;</a>财报这么好居然跌了，看不懂[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$ 财报这么好居然跌了，看不懂[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/206660841185448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}