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幸运鑫
2022-12-13
吃相太难看
法拉第未来盘中暴涨超70%,将举办全球投资人会议
幸运鑫
2021-11-29
路边社消息求证 小牛有意进入新能源汽车制造?
幸运鑫
2021-07-24
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
预计洗盘洗半个月吧,还是有很大部分一级市场的股份获利了结的。
幸运鑫
2021-07-22
$法拉第未来(FFIE)$
起码拿一年到量产吧,光想着短线赚差价,散户哪里这么多技术高手
幸运鑫
2020-08-11
清楚情况的有人说下?谢谢
蔚来跌超6%,此前一度涨超8%
幸运鑫
2020-08-11
看好两家
蔚来,小鹏,理想汽车,谁的股票最值得持有?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周一,法拉第未来盘中暴涨,截至发稿涨幅超70%!公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议,会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be04d5b8308380c27ca4415d5024054\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ac86bdab506d9898920e00d5d818b2","relate_stocks":{"FFIE":"Faraday Future"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130486131","content_text":"周一,法拉第未来盘中暴涨,截至发稿涨幅超70%!公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议,会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463057643110414","authorId":"3463057643110414","name":"躺平躺到地狱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5631398706333ec0e71a2194d3b45cc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3463057643110414","authorIdStr":"3463057643110414"},"content":"元旦快乐!感谢支持!祝:2024年交大运,发大财!","text":"元旦快乐!感谢支持!祝:2024年交大运,发大财!","html":"元旦快乐!感谢支持!祝:2024年交大运,发大财!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600787630,"gmtCreate":1638198254116,"gmtModify":1638198254116,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557304068319584","authorIdStr":"3557304068319584"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"路边社消息求证 小牛有意进入新能源汽车制造?","listText":"路边社消息求证 小牛有意进入新能源汽车制造?","text":"路边社消息求证 小牛有意进入新能源汽车制造?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600787630","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":174956385,"gmtCreate":1627061891247,"gmtModify":1627061891247,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557304068319584","authorIdStr":"3557304068319584"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>预计洗盘洗半个月吧,还是有很大部分一级市场的股份获利了结的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>预计洗盘洗半个月吧,还是有很大部分一级市场的股份获利了结的。","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$预计洗盘洗半个月吧,还是有很大部分一级市场的股份获利了结的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174956385","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172532271,"gmtCreate":1626965588393,"gmtModify":1626965588393,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557304068319584","authorIdStr":"3557304068319584"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$法拉第未来(FFIE)$</a>起码拿一年到量产吧,光想着短线赚差价,散户哪里这么多技术高手","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$法拉第未来(FFIE)$</a>起码拿一年到量产吧,光想着短线赚差价,散户哪里这么多技术高手","text":"$法拉第未来(FFIE)$起码拿一年到量产吧,光想着短线赚差价,散户哪里这么多技术高手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172532271","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947935758,"gmtCreate":1597158008574,"gmtModify":1704214733914,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557304068319584","authorIdStr":"3557304068319584"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"清楚情况的有人说下?谢谢","listText":"清楚情况的有人说下?谢谢","text":"清楚情况的有人说下?谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947935758","repostId":"1119278918","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119278918","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1597157610,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119278918?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-11 22:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来跌超6%,此前一度涨超8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119278918","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二美股盘中,蔚来跌超6%,此前一度涨超8%。今日蔚来发布二季度财报,业绩表现亮眼。【相关阅读】蔚来二季度营收增146.5%,成功实现毛利率转正。","content":"<p>周二美股盘中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超6%,此前一度涨超8%。今日蔚来发布二季度财报,业绩表现亮眼。</p><p>【相关阅读】<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/news/1144952940\" target=\"_blank\">蔚来二季度营收增146.5%,成功实现毛利率转正。</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274f9b22e06d52e463abb17b554d03ce\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来跌超6%,此前一度涨超8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来跌超6%,此前一度涨超8%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-11 22:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周二美股盘中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超6%,此前一度涨超8%。今日蔚来发布二季度财报,业绩表现亮眼。</p><p>【相关阅读】<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/news/1144952940\" target=\"_blank\">蔚来二季度营收增146.5%,成功实现毛利率转正。</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274f9b22e06d52e463abb17b554d03ce\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090cc485ea4ba6d267489389e83608b","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119278918","content_text":"周二美股盘中,蔚来跌超6%,此前一度涨超8%。今日蔚来发布二季度财报,业绩表现亮眼。【相关阅读】蔚来二季度营收增146.5%,成功实现毛利率转正。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3473239093042706","authorId":"3473239093042706","name":"看一眼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a84f5e344772736e621cec9cf6efdc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3473239093042706","authorIdStr":"3473239093042706"},"content":"机构趁利好出货","text":"机构趁利好出货","html":"机构趁利好出货"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944461727,"gmtCreate":1597086710069,"gmtModify":1704214361214,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557304068319584","authorIdStr":"3557304068319584"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好两家","listText":"看好两家","text":"看好两家","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944461727","repostId":"2058257566","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2058257566","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1597076036,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2058257566?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-11 00:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来,小鹏,理想汽车,谁的股票最值得持有?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2058257566","media":"科技说","summary":"虽然蔚来在一级市场拿钱较为容易,对研发费用的支出总规模也最高,但在人均科研人员的支出上反而最弱,与之对应的是理想汽车:总研发费用最少,但人均规模与小鹏相差不大。蔚来和小鹏在上市前已经量产,但蔚来人均科研人员研发支出要远低于小鹏。在此可对上市之前的三家企业做如下总结:蔚来来钱最易,但最不珍惜,理想汽车融资最难,但花钱效率较高,小鹏汽车介于两者之间。","content":"<html><body><article><p>随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>正式提交招股书,王兴看好的三家造车新势力均进入了上市阶段(未来,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>和小鹏),但细分下,这三家企业有明显的模式、方向以及行业探索上的异同,对行业也有自己的的判断和思考。</p><p>判断三家企业的优劣也就相当不易,我们目的也并非购车指南评价,而是希望通过对数据的挖掘和整理,能够从产品思维之外,来验证企业的发展思路,并最终判断哪家企业更具有长期发展性。</p><p>先从一级市场入手,根据三家企业招股书,我们整理了企业在上市前的融资规模以及创始人股份,见下图</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200811001357307v2350gihzar3n6p\"/><p>如果用创始人股权/融资规模表示与一级市场的溢价能力,简单判断为:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>>小鹏>理想汽车,创始人撬动资本的能力有所不同。</p><p>其中,蔚来之所以领先并非是简单的「运营之成功」,更是以下原因使然:</p><p>蔚来成立于2014年11月,彼时一级市场尚处于「拿钱找项目的」热钱涌入周期,在最初多家头部互联网企业家出资创立,再到淡马锡、华平等机构进入,<strong>蔚来在融资上表现的极为积极,可谓是融资跑在运营前</strong>,小鹏汽车虽然也同期成立于2014年,但初期由研发为主,一直到2016年才完成Pre-A轮融资,错过了最佳外部环境。</p><p>理想汽车成立较晚,融资也顺延退后,待到2018年大量融资之时,随着去杠杆等行为带来的外部环境的变化,必然要面临融资成本上涨的问题,根据理想汽车招股书,<strong>从</strong><strong>2017</strong><strong>年末的</strong><strong>B-1</strong><strong>轮一直到</strong><strong>2019</strong><strong>年末的</strong><strong>C</strong><strong>轮,理想汽车的估值并未有明显变化</strong>(可转化可赎回优先股单价在两年时间由13.1元到2.23美金也验证此周期内理想汽车巨大的融资压力)。</p><p>用「生不逢时」难免夸张,「时过境迁」还是相对准确的。</p><p><strong>蔚来在一级市场的溢价能力或许有运气因素,而理想上市前估值保守也并不能完全证明业务不被认可。</strong></p><p>我们再思考这一问题:当融资环境不利时,对企业运营究竟会产生何等影响呢?</p><p>解决该问题之前,可先做以下假设:在未大规模量产之时,初创企业需要加快基础设施建设和科研攻关<strong>,运营效率体现在将所有者权益通过运营转化为资产的能力上</strong>,见下图</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200811001358038v235qczl5w88sb5\"/><p>蔚来发展初期外部环境一片大好,这固然是好事,但或许也因为「钱来的容易」,使得蔚来资产转化率要低于两家企业,我们对此也有疑虑:蔚来与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600418\">江淮汽车</a>合作量产,与其他两家要自建工厂要轻一些,是否因此影响了资产规模的膨胀呢?</p><p>为排除此干扰因素,我们选择用「研发费用」作为主要研究对象,在造车行业技术上存在诸多可探索空间前提下,评价研发费用的效率或许可以判得企业的运营效率,见下图。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200811001403651v2352ar482mrij0\"/><p>虽然蔚来在一级市场拿钱较为容易,对研发费用的支出总规模也最高,但在人均科研人员的支出上反而最弱,与之对应的是理想汽车:总研发费用最少,但人均规模与小鹏相差不大。</p><p>考虑到理想汽车在2019年末才量产,无论是出于控制总损益表情况抑或是出于实际业务的需求,此时的研发费用总规模低于其他两家是完全可以理解的。蔚来和小鹏在上市前已经量产,但蔚来人均科研人员研发支出要远低于小鹏。</p><p>蔚来在研发上采取了中美英多地多个中心的思路,很显然形成了「两头翘」的人员配置方式,上层研发和普通员工呈现极端化,收入悬差巨大,最终反而摊薄了人均支出,也就是说:<strong>蔚来在上市前存在一定的「浮夸之风」,追求表面繁荣和面子工程,不如其他两家脚踏实地。</strong></p><p>结合图二情况,若有浮夸之风,则意味着企业运营期间会有很大比例的跑冒滴漏,沉没成本比例高,部分股东融资未能转化为资产。</p><p>有时候钱来得太容易反而不会珍惜,这适用于创业期的蔚来,2019年蔚来遭遇连番风波,股价受挫,2019年采取了裁员措施,也算是对先前行为的一次校准。</p><p>在此可对上市之前的三家企业做如下总结:<strong>蔚来来钱最易,但最不珍惜,理想汽车融资最难,但花钱效率较高,小鹏汽车介于两者之间。</strong></p><p>接下来我们再看三家企业的产品,由于行业本身充满了不确定性,不同企业也采取了不同的发展策略,如理想汽车选择了六座的大型SUV作为突破口,蔚来汽车则从SUV到小型轿车,理论上判断,若企业产品在终端市场具有极强竞争力,势必会在定价中有所表示,也就是说,强竞争力必然会带来高毛利率,我们整理上市前三家企业的汽车毛利率情况,见下图</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200811001404750v235gdrlzg9xuqm\"/><p>蔚来上市之时虽然已经量产,但几乎是「卖一辆赔一辆」的负毛利率,小鹏汽车亦是如此,量产一定规模后,毛利率迟迟不能回正也很说明问题,只有理想汽车,选择了「增程式」电动汽车,确保了续航里程,且又以六座大型SUV切入了竞争力较小领域,故而有毛利率为正表现。</p><p>值得注意的是,2019全年蔚来毛利率不仅未回正反而有扩大的势头,从表面看是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>入侵,不断挤压产品在终端市场的增值溢价能力<strong>,对比理想汽车情况,在特斯拉之下也隐含着对企业选择造车切入点合理性的反馈。</strong></p><p>小鹏汽车选择了15万-30万元的中低端市场,面临着上有特斯拉下有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>的竞争局面,在未能大规模量产降低制造端成本前提下,毛利是很难回正的。</p><p>虽然市场均认同智能汽车是未来方向和前景,这是大势所趋,但从细分市场来看,竞争已经相当残酷,给造车企业的机会其实已经不多。</p><p>最后,我们还想通过创始人持股比例来做分析。</p><p>虽然通过AB股设置,创始人都牢牢掌握了公司话语权,似乎可以忽略持股比例这一数字,但相当多分析其实并未注意到:造车行业无论是制造端、供应链还是研发端,都处在急剧的烧钱状态,创始人持股比例高,理论上企业通过增发、债转股形式融资的可能性就越高,反之亦然,换言之,<strong>在一个烧钱行业中,创始人投资比例绝对着通过资本市场募资的动力,也就是融资潜力问题。</strong></p><p>蔚来虽然在上市前融资容易,但IPO只是下轮融资的开始,现在所处阶段要相对困难许多。</p><p>小鹏和理想汽车有相对的优势,但资本定价也取决于企业经营情况,尽快跑起来,盈利,提高资本市场信心是下阶段降低融资成本的关键。</p><p>根据最新数据,蔚来汽车2020年7月交付3533台,ES8和ES6两款车型面世均超过一年以上,理想汽车在只有一款车型前提下,同期交付了2516台,环比增加33%,在有毛利,上市不满一年前提下,理想成绩要相对好于已经成熟运营了一年以上的蔚来(ES6环比增长仅为5%)。</p><p>此外强调一点,由于不同地方政府对增城模式的认可度不同,有地区并未认可其新能源汽车这一身份,联想汽车的竞争相较于其他两家要严峻许多,有以上成绩乃是相当不易。</p><p>如果王兴说造车新势力蔚来,理想汽车和小鹏汽车会是硕果仅存的三家,那么随着运营和行业变化的深入,这三家公司分化也会逐渐加剧(目前市值尚在同一区间,且三家互为定价标准,理想汽车的普通股拆ADS比例显然也参照了蔚来的股价),此后会有一家领跑行业,且差距会不断加大。</p><p>我已看好一家,你们呢?</p><p>编辑/emily</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来,小鹏,理想汽车,谁的股票最值得持有?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来,小鹏,理想汽车,谁的股票最值得持有?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-11 00:13 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008110014057a9c3bca&s=b><strong>科技说</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着小鹏汽车正式提交招股书,王兴看好的三家造车新势力均进入了上市阶段(未来,理想汽车和小鹏),但细分下,这三家企业有明显的模式、方向以及行业探索上的异同,对行业也有自己的的判断和思考。判断三家企业的优劣也就相当不易,我们目的也并非购车指南评价,而是希望通过对数据的挖掘和整理,能够从产品思维之外,来验证企业的发展思路,并最终判断哪家企业更具有长期发展性。先从一级市场入手,根据三家企业招股书,我们整理...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008110014057a9c3bca&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eebab619623966f6e7115434f653b888","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008110014057a9c3bca&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2058257566","content_text":"随着小鹏汽车正式提交招股书,王兴看好的三家造车新势力均进入了上市阶段(未来,理想汽车和小鹏),但细分下,这三家企业有明显的模式、方向以及行业探索上的异同,对行业也有自己的的判断和思考。判断三家企业的优劣也就相当不易,我们目的也并非购车指南评价,而是希望通过对数据的挖掘和整理,能够从产品思维之外,来验证企业的发展思路,并最终判断哪家企业更具有长期发展性。先从一级市场入手,根据三家企业招股书,我们整理了企业在上市前的融资规模以及创始人股份,见下图如果用创始人股权/融资规模表示与一级市场的溢价能力,简单判断为:蔚来>小鹏>理想汽车,创始人撬动资本的能力有所不同。其中,蔚来之所以领先并非是简单的「运营之成功」,更是以下原因使然:蔚来成立于2014年11月,彼时一级市场尚处于「拿钱找项目的」热钱涌入周期,在最初多家头部互联网企业家出资创立,再到淡马锡、华平等机构进入,蔚来在融资上表现的极为积极,可谓是融资跑在运营前,小鹏汽车虽然也同期成立于2014年,但初期由研发为主,一直到2016年才完成Pre-A轮融资,错过了最佳外部环境。理想汽车成立较晚,融资也顺延退后,待到2018年大量融资之时,随着去杠杆等行为带来的外部环境的变化,必然要面临融资成本上涨的问题,根据理想汽车招股书,从2017年末的B-1轮一直到2019年末的C轮,理想汽车的估值并未有明显变化(可转化可赎回优先股单价在两年时间由13.1元到2.23美金也验证此周期内理想汽车巨大的融资压力)。用「生不逢时」难免夸张,「时过境迁」还是相对准确的。蔚来在一级市场的溢价能力或许有运气因素,而理想上市前估值保守也并不能完全证明业务不被认可。我们再思考这一问题:当融资环境不利时,对企业运营究竟会产生何等影响呢?解决该问题之前,可先做以下假设:在未大规模量产之时,初创企业需要加快基础设施建设和科研攻关,运营效率体现在将所有者权益通过运营转化为资产的能力上,见下图蔚来发展初期外部环境一片大好,这固然是好事,但或许也因为「钱来的容易」,使得蔚来资产转化率要低于两家企业,我们对此也有疑虑:蔚来与江淮汽车合作量产,与其他两家要自建工厂要轻一些,是否因此影响了资产规模的膨胀呢?为排除此干扰因素,我们选择用「研发费用」作为主要研究对象,在造车行业技术上存在诸多可探索空间前提下,评价研发费用的效率或许可以判得企业的运营效率,见下图。虽然蔚来在一级市场拿钱较为容易,对研发费用的支出总规模也最高,但在人均科研人员的支出上反而最弱,与之对应的是理想汽车:总研发费用最少,但人均规模与小鹏相差不大。考虑到理想汽车在2019年末才量产,无论是出于控制总损益表情况抑或是出于实际业务的需求,此时的研发费用总规模低于其他两家是完全可以理解的。蔚来和小鹏在上市前已经量产,但蔚来人均科研人员研发支出要远低于小鹏。蔚来在研发上采取了中美英多地多个中心的思路,很显然形成了「两头翘」的人员配置方式,上层研发和普通员工呈现极端化,收入悬差巨大,最终反而摊薄了人均支出,也就是说:蔚来在上市前存在一定的「浮夸之风」,追求表面繁荣和面子工程,不如其他两家脚踏实地。结合图二情况,若有浮夸之风,则意味着企业运营期间会有很大比例的跑冒滴漏,沉没成本比例高,部分股东融资未能转化为资产。有时候钱来得太容易反而不会珍惜,这适用于创业期的蔚来,2019年蔚来遭遇连番风波,股价受挫,2019年采取了裁员措施,也算是对先前行为的一次校准。在此可对上市之前的三家企业做如下总结:蔚来来钱最易,但最不珍惜,理想汽车融资最难,但花钱效率较高,小鹏汽车介于两者之间。接下来我们再看三家企业的产品,由于行业本身充满了不确定性,不同企业也采取了不同的发展策略,如理想汽车选择了六座的大型SUV作为突破口,蔚来汽车则从SUV到小型轿车,理论上判断,若企业产品在终端市场具有极强竞争力,势必会在定价中有所表示,也就是说,强竞争力必然会带来高毛利率,我们整理上市前三家企业的汽车毛利率情况,见下图蔚来上市之时虽然已经量产,但几乎是「卖一辆赔一辆」的负毛利率,小鹏汽车亦是如此,量产一定规模后,毛利率迟迟不能回正也很说明问题,只有理想汽车,选择了「增程式」电动汽车,确保了续航里程,且又以六座大型SUV切入了竞争力较小领域,故而有毛利率为正表现。值得注意的是,2019全年蔚来毛利率不仅未回正反而有扩大的势头,从表面看是特斯拉入侵,不断挤压产品在终端市场的增值溢价能力,对比理想汽车情况,在特斯拉之下也隐含着对企业选择造车切入点合理性的反馈。小鹏汽车选择了15万-30万元的中低端市场,面临着上有特斯拉下有比亚迪的竞争局面,在未能大规模量产降低制造端成本前提下,毛利是很难回正的。虽然市场均认同智能汽车是未来方向和前景,这是大势所趋,但从细分市场来看,竞争已经相当残酷,给造车企业的机会其实已经不多。最后,我们还想通过创始人持股比例来做分析。虽然通过AB股设置,创始人都牢牢掌握了公司话语权,似乎可以忽略持股比例这一数字,但相当多分析其实并未注意到:造车行业无论是制造端、供应链还是研发端,都处在急剧的烧钱状态,创始人持股比例高,理论上企业通过增发、债转股形式融资的可能性就越高,反之亦然,换言之,在一个烧钱行业中,创始人投资比例绝对着通过资本市场募资的动力,也就是融资潜力问题。蔚来虽然在上市前融资容易,但IPO只是下轮融资的开始,现在所处阶段要相对困难许多。小鹏和理想汽车有相对的优势,但资本定价也取决于企业经营情况,尽快跑起来,盈利,提高资本市场信心是下阶段降低融资成本的关键。根据最新数据,蔚来汽车2020年7月交付3533台,ES8和ES6两款车型面世均超过一年以上,理想汽车在只有一款车型前提下,同期交付了2516台,环比增加33%,在有毛利,上市不满一年前提下,理想成绩要相对好于已经成熟运营了一年以上的蔚来(ES6环比增长仅为5%)。此外强调一点,由于不同地方政府对增城模式的认可度不同,有地区并未认可其新能源汽车这一身份,联想汽车的竞争相较于其他两家要严峻许多,有以上成绩乃是相当不易。如果王兴说造车新势力蔚来,理想汽车和小鹏汽车会是硕果仅存的三家,那么随着运营和行业变化的深入,这三家公司分化也会逐渐加剧(目前市值尚在同一区间,且三家互为定价标准,理想汽车的普通股拆ADS比例显然也参照了蔚来的股价),此后会有一家领跑行业,且差距会不断加大。我已看好一家,你们呢?编辑/emily","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":629725547,"gmtCreate":1670866538490,"gmtModify":1670866540248,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557304068319584","authorIdStr":"3557304068319584"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"吃相太难看","listText":"吃相太难看","text":"吃相太难看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629725547","repostId":"1130486131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130486131","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670858037,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130486131?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-12 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n法拉第未来盘中暴涨超70%,将举办全球投资人会议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-12 23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周一,法拉第未来盘中暴涨,截至发稿涨幅超70%!公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议,会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be04d5b8308380c27ca4415d5024054\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ac86bdab506d9898920e00d5d818b2","relate_stocks":{"FFIE":"Faraday Future"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130486131","content_text":"周一,法拉第未来盘中暴涨,截至发稿涨幅超70%!公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议,会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463057643110414","authorId":"3463057643110414","name":"躺平躺到地狱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5631398706333ec0e71a2194d3b45cc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3463057643110414","authorIdStr":"3463057643110414"},"content":"元旦快乐!感谢支持!祝:2024年交大运,发大财!","text":"元旦快乐!感谢支持!祝:2024年交大运,发大财!","html":"元旦快乐!感谢支持!祝:2024年交大运,发大财!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172532271,"gmtCreate":1626965588393,"gmtModify":1626965588393,"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557304068319584","authorIdStr":"3557304068319584"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$法拉第未来(FFIE)$</a>起码拿一年到量产吧,光想着短线赚差价,散户哪里这么多技术高手","listText":"<a 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