___4642的个人主页 - 老虎社区

___4642

___4642

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2021-02-25

$理想汽车(LI)$坐等8点的神秘力量

2020-12-14

$理想汽车(LI)$为啥每次开盘都是这样……

2020-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$盘前怎么都成直线了？

2020-12-07

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$笑死我了

2020-12-02

$理想汽车(LI)$稳住慢慢来，别像隔壁不讲武德一样，没得玩了

2020-11-25

起售价不是32w吗怎么就15w了？？？这什么报告

理想汽车营收预估不切实际股价明显偏高回调迫在眉睫

2020-11-25

$理想汽车(LI)$冲，抄底了

2020-11-24

$理想汽车(LI)$让我看看谁被甩下车了

2020-11-24

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$年轻人不讲武德，劝你耗子尾汁

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21:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"理想汽车营收预估不切实际 股价明显偏高回调迫在眉睫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2086273656","media":"金融界网站","summary":"理想汽车预计未来两年营收将大幅增长。在现价位，不应当买入理想汽车的股票。理想汽车最近与英伟达签订了一项协议。理想汽车不知在评估其营收预估时是否考虑到了这一关键因素。需要牢记的是，蔚来汽车在2019年给出了完全不切实际的销售预估，结果其股价从9美元跌至不到3美元。此外，若干董事与持有大量理想汽车股份的离岸公司有联系。","content":"<html><body><article><p>北京时间11月25日消息，美国知名财经网站SeekingAlpha日前刊文称，虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>的未来可期，但该公司当前股价明显偏高。如果增速达不到预期，股价可能会出现大幅下滑。以下为文章全文：</p><p><strong>概述：</strong></p><p><strong>理想汽车在中国开发、制造和销售<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电动车。</strong></p><p><strong>理想汽车2022年销售额达到43亿美元值得商榷，因为员工数量偏少。</strong></p><p><strong>若干董事与持有大量理想汽车股份的离岸公司有联系。</strong></p><p><strong>对投资者而言，理想汽车当前股价过高，因为它给出了大量的销售预测。如果这家公司无法达到预期的增长水平，股价可能会大幅下挫。</strong></p><p><strong>理想汽车可能适合于喜欢风险和不确定因素的投资者。</strong></p><p>理想汽车预计未来两年营收将大幅增长。但从当前员工数量进行分析，该公司制定的销售目标有点偏高。因为市场相信理想汽车的销售预估。投资者需要了解理想汽车的业务模式。这是一个有吸引力的商业构想。但是，投资者应该以低价购买理想汽车股票。在现价位，不应当买入理想汽车的股票。</p><p><strong>理想汽车</strong></p><p>理想汽车在中国开发、制造和销售智能电动车。该公司的第一款电动车理想ONE，是一款采用智能车辆技术的高级电动SUV。2019年11月，理想ONE开始投产。虽然理想汽车相当年轻，但许多投资者都在关注这家公司，认为它或许是下一个蔚来汽车或<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。</p><p>理想汽车的电动车售价并不昂贵，起售价为人民币15万元（约合2.1万美元）。该公司的目标是能够提供巨大增长机会的中国家庭。需要注意的是，中国的人口金字塔显示，许多单身可能很快就会组建家庭。这是在中国投资的最佳时机。此类人群的消费将会增加很多。</p><p>随着消费力的增加，中国家庭倾向于选择SUV进行日常通勤和周末家庭旅行。作为中国最具竞争力的SUV车型之一，理想ONE完全有能力抓住这一细分市场的巨大增长机遇。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215716618d173jhodr2sict6\"/><p>根据补贴后的价格进行比较，理想汽车的电动车售价要低于蔚来汽车和特斯拉的电动车售价。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215717061d173ldxn12c42kz\"/><p>美国投资者需要意识到，中国的许多公司都是使用美国的技术运营的。美国企业希望从中国中产阶级的增长中获取收益。理想汽车最近与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>签订了一项协议。基于此，理想汽车预计将把人工智能技术植入其电动车当中。理想汽车在当时的声明中表示：“2020年9月，公司与全球领先的人工智能计算公司英伟达和英伟达中国合作伙伴惠州赛西威达成三方战略合作。通过这一战略合作，理想汽车将成为第一家为其车辆配备强大英伟达Orin系统芯片组的原始设备制造商。理想汽车搭载该芯片组的增程高级智能SUV将于2022年发布。”</p><p><strong>私人和公共快速收费基础设施不足</strong></p><p>有些事没人提到。理想汽车要想正常销售电动车，中国需要有适当的基础设施。据理想汽车称，截至目前，中国似乎还没有足够的基础设施。理想汽车不知在评估其营收预估时是否考虑到了这一关键因素。</p><p>根据CIC Report，截至2019年12月31日，中国一线城市只有不到25%的家庭拥有适合安装家庭充电桩的停车位，而在美国这一比例超过了70%。因此，中国有相当多的电池电动车车主不得不依赖公共收费基础设施。根据该报告，截至2019年12月31日，新能源汽车与公共快速充电桩的比例为17.7比1。这表明中国的公共快速充电桩数量不足以支持电池电动车的增长。</p><p><strong>营收预估可能有点不现实</strong></p><p>在截至2020年6月30日的上半年，理想汽车的销售额为人民币27.89亿，毛利润为人民币3.27亿。该公司每个季度的销售额增幅接近于28%。2020年上半年，理想汽车的营业亏损为人民币4.10亿元；研发支出超过人民币3.91亿元。在研发支出如此之高的情况下，投资者需要等待相当长一段时间，才能看到理想汽车首次实现息税折旧摊销前利润（<span>EBITDA</span>）。该公司指出，2022年将实现超过2亿美元的息税折旧摊销前利润。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215717319d173j7m94bawx5z\"/><p>理想汽车认为，到2022年公司销售额将超过43亿美元。但公司管理层对未来收入相当乐观。特斯拉花了三年多时间才达到40亿美元的销售额。不知道为什么理想汽车要比特斯拉更快达到这个水平。投资者需要非常担心理想汽车不切实际的销售预测。需要牢记的是，蔚来汽车在2019年给出了完全不切实际的销售预估，结果其股价从9美元跌至不到3美元。这是对股东价值的巨大破坏。希望同样的事情不会发生在理想汽车。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215717887d173p0a7urkahhn\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215718226d1738oaxyiol6wp\"/><p>理想汽车目前的员工数量是潜在生产力的另一个指标。蔚来汽车拥有7442名员工，能够实现11.3亿美元的销售额。理想汽车目前拥有员工2628人。无法相信理想汽车在2022年能实现43亿美元的销售额，因为为其工作的员工数量不足。想要实现预期的销售额，理想汽车将不得不雇用大量的员工。蔚来汽车的员工/销售额比为6.56人/百万元。这意味着理想汽车可能需要2.8万多名员工来实现43亿美元的销售额。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215718556d173jt8jlid87xx\"/><p>似乎每个人都认为蔚来汽车和理想汽车会像特斯拉一样。请注意，特斯拉是电动车的开创者。该公司向股东交付出色的投资回报是有道理的。如今，理想汽车和蔚来汽车将不再是唯一的电动车制造商。还有其他竞争者将争夺目标市场的一小部分。因此，别指望理想汽车能像特斯拉那样股价上涨。</p><p>对此，理想汽车在其招股说明书中就提出了以下警告：“中国汽车市场当前竞争激烈。我们与内燃机汽车以及新能源汽车竞争。我们的许多现有和潜在竞争对手和/或新市场进入者拥有比我们多得多的财务、技术、制造、营销和品牌、人才和其他资源，并且能够投入更多的资源来设计、开发、制造、营销、销售和支持他们的产品。特别是在高端SUV领域，有许多经验丰富的国际竞争对手。”</p><p><strong><span>资产负债表</span>：<span>资产</span>总额正在增加</strong></p><p>最近，该公司的资产大幅增加。由于首次公开募股，理想汽车的现金和短期投资都有所增加。定期存款和短期投资飙升369%，达到17.82亿美元。显然，市场对理想汽车的股票有需求。但投资者需要意识到这一点。他们需要以合理的价格购买股票。在蔚来汽车首次公开募股之后，该公司股价就出现了跳水。虽然同样的事情不一定会发生在理想汽车身上，但不能完全不考虑这种可能性。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215719044d1733t61qug9kpv\"/><p>理想汽车目前的<span>负债</span>很少，投资者不会对此过于担心。理想汽车的资产负债比为5倍。一家企业决定长期借款并不是什么好事。如果企业有大量现金，应该偿还债务。股东不想为公司不使用的债务支付利息。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215719653d173h73k9f1czsh\"/><p><strong><span>股权结构</span></strong></p><p>像许多中国公司一样，理想汽车也有几位拥有大量投票权的股东。这家公司是控股实体，这种情况在中国很常见。此外，若干董事与持有大量理想汽车股份的离岸公司有联系。之所以出现这种情况，要么是拥有这些离岸实体的个人不想让自己的名字出现在公开报告中，要么是他们更喜欢在离岸司法管辖区纳税。是的，中国很多公司都这样做，但是美国的股东需要知道。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215719973d1731q1wswnovyd\"/><p><strong>公司估值是否合理？</strong></p><p>如果假设理想汽车2021年销售额达到25亿美元，那么该公司目前的动态市销率为10倍。考虑到员工数量有限，理想汽车能否获得如此大的销售额增长值得商榷。理想汽车很可能不得不快速招聘。但需要牢记的是，培训员工需要时间。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215720294d173lch066zqwfi\"/><p>包括特斯拉、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>等电动车厂商当前的市销率均不到9.5倍。对投资者而言，理想汽车的交易成本较高，因为它给出了大量的销售预测。如果公司无法达到预期的增长水平，价值的损失可能会很大。比亚迪目前的市销率为3.3倍。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125215722748d173ezbysi95o1x\"/><p><strong>观点</strong></p><p>理想汽车的商业模式确实招人喜欢，同时理想汽车的目标是中国客户。但该公司对其销售预估还是过于乐观。理想汽车目前的员工数量太有限，无法获得如此高的销售额。此外，理想汽车的股权结构和离岸拥有股份的实体可能不是正确选择。虽然理想汽车有很好的商业构想，但也发现了太多的危险信号。如果作为一位保守的投资者，还是尽量避免购买该公司的股票。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>理想汽车营收预估不切实际 股价明显偏高回调迫在眉睫</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n理想汽车营收预估不切实际 股价明显偏高回调迫在眉睫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-25 21:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020112521572779a6597f&s=b><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间11月25日消息，美国知名财经网站SeekingAlpha日前刊文称，虽然理想汽车的未来可期，但该公司当前股价明显偏高。如果增速达不到预期，股价可能会出现大幅下滑。以下为文章全文：概述：理想汽车在中国开发、制造和销售智能电动车。理想汽车2022年销售额达到43亿美元值得商榷，因为员工数量偏少。若干董事与持有大量理想汽车股份的离岸公司有联系。对投资者而言，理想汽车当前股价过高，因为它给出了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020112521572779a6597f&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020112521572779a6597f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2086273656","content_text":"北京时间11月25日消息，美国知名财经网站SeekingAlpha日前刊文称，虽然理想汽车的未来可期，但该公司当前股价明显偏高。如果增速达不到预期，股价可能会出现大幅下滑。以下为文章全文：概述：理想汽车在中国开发、制造和销售智能电动车。理想汽车2022年销售额达到43亿美元值得商榷，因为员工数量偏少。若干董事与持有大量理想汽车股份的离岸公司有联系。对投资者而言，理想汽车当前股价过高，因为它给出了大量的销售预测。如果这家公司无法达到预期的增长水平，股价可能会大幅下挫。理想汽车可能适合于喜欢风险和不确定因素的投资者。理想汽车预计未来两年营收将大幅增长。但从当前员工数量进行分析，该公司制定的销售目标有点偏高。因为市场相信理想汽车的销售预估。投资者需要了解理想汽车的业务模式。这是一个有吸引力的商业构想。但是，投资者应该以低价购买理想汽车股票。在现价位，不应当买入理想汽车的股票。理想汽车理想汽车在中国开发、制造和销售智能电动车。该公司的第一款电动车理想ONE，是一款采用智能车辆技术的高级电动SUV。2019年11月，理想ONE开始投产。虽然理想汽车相当年轻，但许多投资者都在关注这家公司，认为它或许是下一个蔚来汽车或特斯拉。理想汽车的电动车售价并不昂贵，起售价为人民币15万元（约合2.1万美元）。该公司的目标是能够提供巨大增长机会的中国家庭。需要注意的是，中国的人口金字塔显示，许多单身可能很快就会组建家庭。这是在中国投资的最佳时机。此类人群的消费将会增加很多。随着消费力的增加，中国家庭倾向于选择SUV进行日常通勤和周末家庭旅行。作为中国最具竞争力的SUV车型之一，理想ONE完全有能力抓住这一细分市场的巨大增长机遇。根据补贴后的价格进行比较，理想汽车的电动车售价要低于蔚来汽车和特斯拉的电动车售价。美国投资者需要意识到，中国的许多公司都是使用美国的技术运营的。美国企业希望从中国中产阶级的增长中获取收益。理想汽车最近与英伟达签订了一项协议。基于此，理想汽车预计将把人工智能技术植入其电动车当中。理想汽车在当时的声明中表示：“2020年9月，公司与全球领先的人工智能计算公司英伟达和英伟达中国合作伙伴惠州赛西威达成三方战略合作。通过这一战略合作，理想汽车将成为第一家为其车辆配备强大英伟达Orin系统芯片组的原始设备制造商。理想汽车搭载该芯片组的增程高级智能SUV将于2022年发布。”私人和公共快速收费基础设施不足有些事没人提到。理想汽车要想正常销售电动车，中国需要有适当的基础设施。据理想汽车称，截至目前，中国似乎还没有足够的基础设施。理想汽车不知在评估其营收预估时是否考虑到了这一关键因素。根据CIC Report，截至2019年12月31日，中国一线城市只有不到25%的家庭拥有适合安装家庭充电桩的停车位，而在美国这一比例超过了70%。因此，中国有相当多的电池电动车车主不得不依赖公共收费基础设施。根据该报告，截至2019年12月31日，新能源汽车与公共快速充电桩的比例为17.7比1。这表明中国的公共快速充电桩数量不足以支持电池电动车的增长。营收预估可能有点不现实在截至2020年6月30日的上半年，理想汽车的销售额为人民币27.89亿，毛利润为人民币3.27亿。该公司每个季度的销售额增幅接近于28%。2020年上半年，理想汽车的营业亏损为人民币4.10亿元；研发支出超过人民币3.91亿元。在研发支出如此之高的情况下，投资者需要等待相当长一段时间，才能看到理想汽车首次实现息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）。该公司指出，2022年将实现超过2亿美元的息税折旧摊销前利润。理想汽车认为，到2022年公司销售额将超过43亿美元。但公司管理层对未来收入相当乐观。特斯拉花了三年多时间才达到40亿美元的销售额。不知道为什么理想汽车要比特斯拉更快达到这个水平。投资者需要非常担心理想汽车不切实际的销售预测。需要牢记的是，蔚来汽车在2019年给出了完全不切实际的销售预估，结果其股价从9美元跌至不到3美元。这是对股东价值的巨大破坏。希望同样的事情不会发生在理想汽车。理想汽车目前的员工数量是潜在生产力的另一个指标。蔚来汽车拥有7442名员工，能够实现11.3亿美元的销售额。理想汽车目前拥有员工2628人。无法相信理想汽车在2022年能实现43亿美元的销售额，因为为其工作的员工数量不足。想要实现预期的销售额，理想汽车将不得不雇用大量的员工。蔚来汽车的员工/销售额比为6.56人/百万元。这意味着理想汽车可能需要2.8万多名员工来实现43亿美元的销售额。似乎每个人都认为蔚来汽车和理想汽车会像特斯拉一样。请注意，特斯拉是电动车的开创者。该公司向股东交付出色的投资回报是有道理的。如今，理想汽车和蔚来汽车将不再是唯一的电动车制造商。还有其他竞争者将争夺目标市场的一小部分。因此，别指望理想汽车能像特斯拉那样股价上涨。对此，理想汽车在其招股说明书中就提出了以下警告：“中国汽车市场当前竞争激烈。我们与内燃机汽车以及新能源汽车竞争。我们的许多现有和潜在竞争对手和/或新市场进入者拥有比我们多得多的财务、技术、制造、营销和品牌、人才和其他资源，并且能够投入更多的资源来设计、开发、制造、营销、销售和支持他们的产品。特别是在高端SUV领域，有许多经验丰富的国际竞争对手。”资产负债表：资产总额正在增加最近，该公司的资产大幅增加。由于首次公开募股，理想汽车的现金和短期投资都有所增加。定期存款和短期投资飙升369%，达到17.82亿美元。显然，市场对理想汽车的股票有需求。但投资者需要意识到这一点。他们需要以合理的价格购买股票。在蔚来汽车首次公开募股之后，该公司股价就出现了跳水。虽然同样的事情不一定会发生在理想汽车身上，但不能完全不考虑这种可能性。理想汽车目前的负债很少，投资者不会对此过于担心。理想汽车的资产负债比为5倍。一家企业决定长期借款并不是什么好事。如果企业有大量现金，应该偿还债务。股东不想为公司不使用的债务支付利息。股权结构像许多中国公司一样，理想汽车也有几位拥有大量投票权的股东。这家公司是控股实体，这种情况在中国很常见。此外，若干董事与持有大量理想汽车股份的离岸公司有联系。之所以出现这种情况，要么是拥有这些离岸实体的个人不想让自己的名字出现在公开报告中，要么是他们更喜欢在离岸司法管辖区纳税。是的，中国很多公司都这样做，但是美国的股东需要知道。公司估值是否合理？如果假设理想汽车2021年销售额达到25亿美元，那么该公司目前的动态市销率为10倍。考虑到员工数量有限，理想汽车能否获得如此大的销售额增长值得商榷。理想汽车很可能不得不快速招聘。但需要牢记的是，培训员工需要时间。包括特斯拉、比亚迪等电动车厂商当前的市销率均不到9.5倍。对投资者而言，理想汽车的交易成本较高，因为它给出了大量的销售预测。如果公司无法达到预期的增长水平，价值的损失可能会很大。比亚迪目前的市销率为3.3倍。观点理想汽车的商业模式确实招人喜欢，同时理想汽车的目标是中国客户。但该公司对其销售预估还是过于乐观。理想汽车目前的员工数量太有限，无法获得如此高的销售额。此外，理想汽车的股权结构和离岸拥有股份的实体可能不是正确选择。虽然理想汽车有很好的商业构想，但也发现了太多的危险信号。如果作为一位保守的投资者，还是尽量避免购买该公司的股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393288304,"gmtCreate":1606312763008,"gmtModify":1703842510794,"author":{"id":"3557289597447230","authorId":"3557289597447230","name":"___4642","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d34ab0edd5c5d05667188fe7f7762df1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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