Axions的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Axions

Axions

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2022-09-14

石油价格在利润高位，石油公司怎样都是赚，为什么会跌，美国指着资源高位收割全球呢

为什么石油价格在跌，石油股却依然坚挺？

2022-03-23

经济萧条，实业收入减少，偿债能力不足，导致破产，失业人员增多，消费不足，引发经济下滑。房市负债率过高，个人失业或收入不够，导致房产违约，导致经济危机爆发。

2022-03-22

美国现在所有的金融操作和发言更像是在挖坑，等着别人跳，然后掠夺，美债收益率和通胀都感觉像是放出来的烟雾弹

2022-03-18

短期长，长期还得跌

2022-03-10

其他国家衰退，正好和美国一起打强心针

分析师警告：如果油价继续飙升，全球经济将出现衰退

2022-03-10

同样的成本，只因近期美国制裁了俄罗斯能源，原材料价格开始上涨，开始围栏行动。美国是发财的，缓解了通胀。月底开始加息，一路长虹，又开始一轮牛，这两天估计在洗盘，准备筹码抄底。相信这个周日和周六不太平。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-03-10

$黄金主连 2204(GCmain)$ 在洗盘吧

2021-06-12

冲啊冲啊，知乎牛逼

2021-05-26

这美国水一放，中国闸一开，股市还疯长的话，实体企业会死的更惨，只希望政府管控房价能稳住争取还能再降点，这天下就太平了

A股惊天阳线意味着什么：危险时刻已过，“双牛”来了

2021-04-05

$知乎(ZH)$加大力度，全仓持有

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>双双下调油价预期，他们认为油价目前面临双重压力，一是全球疫情反弹延缓需求复苏，二是俄罗斯原油出口不减。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为什么石油价格在跌，石油股却依然坚挺？</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{"UBS":"瑞银","MS":"摩根士丹利","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","OXY":"西方石油","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PXD":"先锋自然资源","GS":"高盛","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","CVX":"雪佛龙","XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670203","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199243234","content_text":"分析认为，与以往不同，本次原油价格和石油股的走势相对背离，这表明投资者对石油公司的管理团队更有信心，认为他们可以驾驭动荡的大宗商品市场，并实现盈利。原油价格自今年3月的高点下滑了约30%，回吐俄乌冲突爆发以来的所有涨幅，但与此同时石油股依然坚挺，标普能源板块ETF XLE、埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、西方石油等较其今年高点滑落8%-15%，跌幅远低于油价本身。分析认为，与以往不同，本次原油价格和石油股的走势相对背离，这表明投资者对石油公司的管理团队更有信心，认为他们可以驾驭动荡的大宗商品市场，并实现盈利。今年最有名的原油股投资例子来自巴菲特的西方石油。据9月9日的一份监管文件显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票，将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。今年以来西方石油股价已经累计上涨了超过110%，是标普500指数成分股中表现最好的股票之一。石油公司现在的债务负担相对较低，并且降低了运营成本，这意味着即使油价下跌，它们也可以赚钱。尽管最近几周分析师们出于对经济衰退的担忧一直在下调其他行业许多公司的盈利预期，但石油和天然气行业的情况并非如此，他们的盈利预期是被上调的。大多数石油公司对80美元的油价感到满意，在目前的价格水平下，它们仍然处于非常好的状态。即使油价跌至60美元以下，大型石油公司都可以保持稳定盈利。埃克森美孚此前曾表示，其盈亏平衡价格已降至41美元，并且正在努力进一步降低盈亏平衡点。埃克森美孚公司的高管Neil Chapman今年早些时候表示，公司未来6年带来新产量的投资计划中，有超过90%在布伦特原油等于或低于每桶35美元的情形下，仍可以在投资期内产生超过10%的回报。投资者相信石油公司的管理团队们会坚持生产计划，而不是生产出过多的石油并导致价格下跌。投资者对管理层的这种信任，尚属十年来的首次。此外，能源股是高股息类股票，只要投资者认为公司不会削减股息，就意味着股价有强大的支撑。有几家公司一直在提供除正常股息之外的可变股息。例如按照目前的速度，先锋自然资源公司（Pioneer Natural Resources）的股息收益率可达到10%。原油市场方面，周二OPEC月报显示，当前的石油抛售由“错误信号”引发，今明两年石油需求依然强劲。OPEC维持了其对2022年和2023年石油需求的预测不变，称石油市场基本面“没有变化”，油价下跌的原因是“期货市场的大规模抛售加剧了市场波动”。不过面临油价的下挫，华尔街的多头有些“扛不住了”。与“死多头”高盛唱反调，摩根士丹利、瑞银双双下调油价预期，他们认为油价目前面临双重压力，一是全球疫情反弹延缓需求复苏，二是俄罗斯原油出口不减。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":637691305,"gmtCreate":1648030996306,"gmtModify":1648031282202,"author":{"id":"3556451167905147","authorId":"3556451167905147","name":"Axions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60595ca0b994556da1cca7b748f5260d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556451167905147","authorIdStr":"3556451167905147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"经济萧条，实业收入减少，偿债能力不足，导致破产，失业人员增多，消费不足，引发经济下滑。房市负债率过高，个人失业或收入不够，导致房产违约，导致经济危机爆发。","listText":"经济萧条，实业收入减少，偿债能力不足，导致破产，失业人员增多，消费不足，引发经济下滑。房市负债率过高，个人失业或收入不够，导致房产违约，导致经济危机爆发。","text":"经济萧条，实业收入减少，偿债能力不足，导致破产，失业人员增多，消费不足，引发经济下滑。房市负债率过高，个人失业或收入不够，导致房产违约，导致经济危机爆发。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637691305","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":637368457,"gmtCreate":1647915765151,"gmtModify":1647915963057,"author":{"id":"3556451167905147","authorId":"3556451167905147","name":"Axions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60595ca0b994556da1cca7b748f5260d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556451167905147","authorIdStr":"3556451167905147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国现在所有的金融操作和发言更像是在挖坑，等着别人跳，然后掠夺，美债收益率和通胀都感觉像是放出来的烟雾弹","listText":"美国现在所有的金融操作和发言更像是在挖坑，等着别人跳，然后掠夺，美债收益率和通胀都感觉像是放出来的烟雾弹","text":"美国现在所有的金融操作和发言更像是在挖坑，等着别人跳，然后掠夺，美债收益率和通胀都感觉像是放出来的烟雾弹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637368457","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634566975,"gmtCreate":1647572820666,"gmtModify":1647572820666,"author":{"id":"3556451167905147","authorId":"3556451167905147","name":"Axions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60595ca0b994556da1cca7b748f5260d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556451167905147","authorIdStr":"3556451167905147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"短期长，长期还得跌","listText":"短期长，长期还得跌","text":"短期长，长期还得跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634566975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635107710,"gmtCreate":1646878935598,"gmtModify":1646879382539,"author":{"id":"3556451167905147","authorId":"3556451167905147","name":"Axions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60595ca0b994556da1cca7b748f5260d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556451167905147","authorIdStr":"3556451167905147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"其他国家衰退，正好和美国一起打强心针","listText":"其他国家衰退，正好和美国一起打强心针","text":"其他国家衰退，正好和美国一起打强心针","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635107710","repostId":"2218230761","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2218230761","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646876547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2218230761?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-10 09:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"分析师警告：如果油价继续飙升，全球经济将出现衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218230761","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"欧洲和拉丁美洲或最先面对衰退危机，美国也难以幸免。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>近期油价的暴涨已经远远超出很多分析师的心理预期，而现在他们认为油价接下来的走势可能更难以掌控，影响不容小觑。</blockquote><h4><b>油价进入“未知领域”？</b></h4><p>据CNBC报道，咨询公司Capital Economics首席大宗商品经济学家Caroline Bain写道，如果全球主要消费国对俄罗斯能源实施全面禁运，<b>将会“严重减少并扰乱能源供应”，因此油价可能进一步飙升至“未知领域”。</b></p><p>Bain在本周一的报告中提及：</p><blockquote>发达国家今年的通胀率将在5%左右，而我们在危机之前的预测是2.4%。欧洲家庭购买力和电力配给的下降将造成欧元区陷入衰退。</blockquote><h4><b>油价再“持续震荡20美元” 欧元区实际GDP下降0.6%</b></h4><p>此外，本周三Lipow Oil Associates总裁Andy Lipow在接受CNBC采访时表示，<b>如果俄罗斯通过向欧洲禁运原油进行反击，这可能会“很容易”使得油价再上涨20-30美元/桶。</b></p><p>他对此指出：</p><blockquote>我最担心的是，油价飞快上涨，会导致欧洲和拉丁美洲陷入衰退，进而波及美国。</blockquote><p>而关于油价是否会继续上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为油价有进一步上涨的潜力。</p><p>高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius认为，<b>油价“持续震荡20美元”将使欧元区的实际GDP下降0.6%，</b>并抬高消费者的生活成本。</p><p>而为了解决石油供给短缺，Hatzius还指出，理论上可以重新安排石油供给，以缓解西方供应紧张的局面。</p><p>他在3月6日的报告中写道：</p><blockquote>如果西方国家减少购买俄罗斯石油，原则上亚洲国家可以购买更多的俄罗斯石油，并相应地减少从沙特和其他石油购买石油，然后这些石油就可以流向西方。</blockquote><p>但是他也认为，实际上这种方法可能行不通：</p><blockquote>但这种‘重新布置’并不完美，会出现运输成本增加和其他技术摩擦。</blockquote><h4><b>“自我制裁”已经开始</b></h4><p>另外据本周三CNBC的报道显示，已经有分析师指出，即使没有正式制裁，<b>油企的“自我制裁”就将加剧能源市场的压力。</b></p><p>市场情报公司Kpler首席石油分析师Matt Smith在接受采访时提到：</p><blockquote>在宣布制裁之前，我认为很多美国公司就已经对购买俄罗斯原油产品犹豫不决。</blockquote><p>他对此举出了壳牌的例子。此前壳牌曾因抄底俄罗斯石油而遭到“猛烈抨击”，随后壳牌公开道歉并表示将停止购买俄罗斯石油和天然气。</p><p>他对此补充道：</p><blockquote><b>我认为（企业）自我制裁真的开始了，我们看到购买实际上被停止了......自我制裁的影响与制裁本身一样大。</b></blockquote><p>华尔街见闻此前曾提及，如果只是依靠收益率曲线收窄、油价上涨或股市回调某个单一指标，很难清楚说明经济是否开始衰退，可如果是这三个指标悉数出现呢？</p><p>彭博社对此认为，<b>如果三件事情同时发生，那么是时候该认真考虑潜在增长危机了。</b></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653858><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期油价的暴涨已经远远超出很多分析师的心理预期，而现在他们认为油价接下来的走势可能更难以掌控，影响不容小觑。油价进入“未知领域”？据CNBC报道，咨询公司Capital Economics首席大宗商品经济学家Caroline Bain写道，如果全球主要消费国对俄罗斯能源实施全面禁运，将会“严重减少并扰乱能源供应”，因此油价可能进一步飙升至“未知领域”。Bain在本周一的报告中提及：发达国家今年的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653858\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45c66a5b9bfdc49a131bfa0c4be6018c","relate_stocks":{"RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","RDSA.UK":"ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","USO":"美国原油ETF","GS":"高盛","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","RDS.B":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油B类股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653858","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218230761","content_text":"近期油价的暴涨已经远远超出很多分析师的心理预期，而现在他们认为油价接下来的走势可能更难以掌控，影响不容小觑。油价进入“未知领域”？据CNBC报道，咨询公司Capital Economics首席大宗商品经济学家Caroline Bain写道，如果全球主要消费国对俄罗斯能源实施全面禁运，将会“严重减少并扰乱能源供应”，因此油价可能进一步飙升至“未知领域”。Bain在本周一的报告中提及：发达国家今年的通胀率将在5%左右，而我们在危机之前的预测是2.4%。欧洲家庭购买力和电力配给的下降将造成欧元区陷入衰退。油价再“持续震荡20美元” 欧元区实际GDP下降0.6%此外，本周三Lipow Oil Associates总裁Andy Lipow在接受CNBC采访时表示，如果俄罗斯通过向欧洲禁运原油进行反击，这可能会“很容易”使得油价再上涨20-30美元/桶。他对此指出：我最担心的是，油价飞快上涨，会导致欧洲和拉丁美洲陷入衰退，进而波及美国。而关于油价是否会继续上涨，高盛认为油价有进一步上涨的潜力。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius认为，油价“持续震荡20美元”将使欧元区的实际GDP下降0.6%，并抬高消费者的生活成本。而为了解决石油供给短缺，Hatzius还指出，理论上可以重新安排石油供给，以缓解西方供应紧张的局面。他在3月6日的报告中写道：如果西方国家减少购买俄罗斯石油，原则上亚洲国家可以购买更多的俄罗斯石油，并相应地减少从沙特和其他石油购买石油，然后这些石油就可以流向西方。但是他也认为，实际上这种方法可能行不通：但这种‘重新布置’并不完美，会出现运输成本增加和其他技术摩擦。“自我制裁”已经开始另外据本周三CNBC的报道显示，已经有分析师指出，即使没有正式制裁，油企的“自我制裁”就将加剧能源市场的压力。市场情报公司Kpler首席石油分析师Matt Smith在接受采访时提到：在宣布制裁之前，我认为很多美国公司就已经对购买俄罗斯原油产品犹豫不决。他对此举出了壳牌的例子。此前壳牌曾因抄底俄罗斯石油而遭到“猛烈抨击”，随后壳牌公开道歉并表示将停止购买俄罗斯石油和天然气。他对此补充道：我认为（企业）自我制裁真的开始了，我们看到购买实际上被停止了......自我制裁的影响与制裁本身一样大。华尔街见闻此前曾提及，如果只是依靠收益率曲线收窄、油价上涨或股市回调某个单一指标，很难清楚说明经济是否开始衰退，可如果是这三个指标悉数出现呢？彭博社对此认为，如果三件事情同时发生，那么是时候该认真考虑潜在增长危机了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635107835,"gmtCreate":1646878856182,"gmtModify":1646878856182,"author":{"id":"3556451167905147","authorId":"3556451167905147","name":"Axions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60595ca0b994556da1cca7b748f5260d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556451167905147","authorIdStr":"3556451167905147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"同样的成本，只因近期美国制裁了俄罗斯能源，原材料价格开始上涨，开始围栏行动。美国是发财的，缓解了通胀。月底开始加息，一路长虹，又开始一轮牛，这两天估计在洗盘，准备筹码抄底。相信这个周日和周六不太平。","listText":"同样的成本，只因近期美国制裁了俄罗斯能源，原材料价格开始上涨，开始围栏行动。美国是发财的，缓解了通胀。月底开始加息，一路长虹，又开始一轮牛，这两天估计在洗盘，准备筹码抄底。相信这个周日和周六不太平。","text":"同样的成本，只因近期美国制裁了俄罗斯能源，原材料价格开始上涨，开始围栏行动。美国是发财的，缓解了通胀。月底开始加息，一路长虹，又开始一轮牛，这两天估计在洗盘，准备筹码抄底。相信这个周日和周六不太平。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635107835","repostId":"2218230761","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635323132,"gmtCreate":1646842045980,"gmtModify":1646842045980,"author":{"id":"3556451167905147","authorId":"3556451167905147","name":"Axions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60595ca0b994556da1cca7b748f5260d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556451167905147","authorIdStr":"3556451167905147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2204(GCmain)$ &nbsp;</a>在洗盘吧&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2204(GCmain)$ &nbsp;</a>在洗盘吧&nbsp;","text":"$黄金主连 2204(GCmain)$ 在洗盘吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635323132","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519036131541879","authorId":"3519036131541879","name":"lucky第一","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3519036131541879","authorIdStr":"3519036131541879"},"content":"第一停战让难民走。第二乌克兰说只要谈判，就这几年不加入北约。消息一出，市场觉得不打了，今天所有前期涨多的商品开始暴跌。恐慌情绪很大","text":"第一停战让难民走。第二乌克兰说只要谈判，就这几年不加入北约。消息一出，市场觉得不打了，今天所有前期涨多的商品开始暴跌。恐慌情绪很大","html":"第一停战让难民走。第二乌克兰说只要谈判，就这几年不加入北约。消息一出，市场觉得不打了，今天所有前期涨多的商品开始暴跌。恐慌情绪很大"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186801289,"gmtCreate":1623481940841,"gmtModify":1623481940841,"author":{"id":"3556451167905147","authorId":"3556451167905147","name":"Axions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60595ca0b994556da1cca7b748f5260d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556451167905147","authorIdStr":"3556451167905147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲啊冲啊，知乎牛逼","listText":"冲啊冲啊，知乎牛逼","text":"冲啊冲啊，知乎牛逼","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c856c462a788076d43fcc85519c117a5","width":"1242","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186801289","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136898509,"gmtCreate":1622003675301,"gmtModify":1622003675301,"author":{"id":"3556451167905147","authorId":"3556451167905147","name":"Axions","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60595ca0b994556da1cca7b748f5260d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556451167905147","authorIdStr":"3556451167905147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这美国水一放，中国闸一开，股市还疯长的话，实体企业会死的更惨，只希望政府管控房价能稳住争取还能再降点，这天下就太平了","listText":"这美国水一放，中国闸一开，股市还疯长的话，实体企业会死的更惨，只希望政府管控房价能稳住争取还能再降点，这天下就太平了","text":"这美国水一放，中国闸一开，股市还疯长的话，实体企业会死的更惨，只希望政府管控房价能稳住争取还能再降点，这天下就太平了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136898509","repostId":"2138194497","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138194497","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621993598,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2138194497?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-26 09:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A股惊天阳线意味着什么：危险时刻已过，“双牛”来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138194497","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"挑战四千点，这只是开始。","content":"<p>5月25日，A股迎来久违的大涨，大金融板块爆发，券商股持续拉升，白酒股带动消费板块走强，沪深创三大指数均上涨超2%，北向资金净买入217.23亿元，刷新历史新高。</p><p>一根大阳线改变了投资者信仰，市场讨论焦点转向：牛市是否来了？对此，前段时间喊出“挑战四千点”的国君策略团队再次高呼：“挑战四千点，这只是开始。“ 国君固收团队更是旗帜鲜明地表示，下一阶段，市场将迎来股债双牛。</p><p>国君策略团队陈显顺、方奕、黄维驰等分析师在点评昨日行情时表示，随着宏观与外围环境由不确定走向确定，风险评价将会下降，由此驱动行情从震荡走向拉升：</p><blockquote>5月25日市场大涨，成交量放大，我们的逻辑正在不断地被兑现之中，中盘蓝筹领跑、大盘蓝筹跟随的趋势也在兑现之下。就此，我们认为：横盘不长久，挑战四千点，券商股打头阵，中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随，小妖票没大戏。</blockquote><p>上述分析师指出，拉升的核心驱动力来自分母端：</p><blockquote>第一，风险评价下降。经济政策不确定性与宏观风险预期正在快速下行，包括大宗涨价以及信用收紧预期斜率最为陡峭的阶段已经过去，年内政策端易松难紧。</blockquote><blockquote>第二，无风险收益率上行难、下行易。海外方面，美债隐含的通胀预期已处历史高点；国内方面，十年期国债利率继续回落至3.08%，伴随人民币汇率走强，流动性优势有望延续。</blockquote><blockquote>第三，当前风险偏好基本保持稳定。风险偏好仍处中低位置，叠加估值盈利从背离走向收敛，以及微观交易结构从崩塌走向优化，蓝筹上行通道再度打开。</blockquote><p>国君策略建议选择业绩从不确定走向确定边际变化最大的股票，预计市场将出现蓝筹股普涨格局，差异在于中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随。</p><p>国君固收团队覃汉、石玲玲在另一份报告中表示，中美十年期国债利率“下行预期”加强，纳指和A股强势反弹，说明“无风险利率预期”下行的观点已经得到广泛认可，从而推动了权益市场持续修复。</p><p>国君固收团队将眼下的股市行情类比 2020年6-7月期间的行情：</p><blockquote>投资者心中的无风险利率（理财、货基收益率）持续下降，货币基金收益率破 1.5%，买股票的机会成本大幅下降，部分抱团资金切换至低估值板块成为行情发动者，增量资金持续进场强化了低估值板块的“一波流”上涨行情，形成了“低估值板块上涨—上证综指上涨—经济复苏预期强化—债市下跌—净值型理财亏钱—投资者心中的无风险利率下行—低估值板块上涨”的逻辑闭环。</blockquote><p>国君固收团队重申了股债双牛的看法，认为债市方面，随着通胀预期见顶，多部门出台政策做好大宗商品“保供稳价”，通胀“最危险”的时候已经过去，而资金面长期平稳的预期较为明确，国内债市处于“小牛市”的判断越来越受认可。</p><p>该团队表示，参考一轮“小牛市”10年国债利率平均下行50个基点的规律，预计10 年国债利率第一目标位3.0%不会是本轮行情的终点，下一阶段看向10年国债利率2.8%。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股惊天阳线意味着什么：危险时刻已过，“双牛”来了</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631262\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"09141":"华夏亚投债-U"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631262","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138194497","content_text":"5月25日，A股迎来久违的大涨，大金融板块爆发，券商股持续拉升，白酒股带动消费板块走强，沪深创三大指数均上涨超2%，北向资金净买入217.23亿元，刷新历史新高。一根大阳线改变了投资者信仰，市场讨论焦点转向：牛市是否来了？对此，前段时间喊出“挑战四千点”的国君策略团队再次高呼：“挑战四千点，这只是开始。“ 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