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大伟1234
2023-05-06
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@港乜嘢吖:如何使用周期配置资产|一文看懂美林投资时钟
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/656935413\" target=\"_blank\">【虎友访谈】Lawrence:纳斯达克已在1月份形成底部</a>美林的“投资时钟”是一种把“资产”、“行业轮动”、“债券收益率曲线”以及“经济周期四个阶段”联系起来的方法,简而言之就是根据周期来投资。周期相信大家都不陌生,霍华德马克思在其著作《周期》中曾把商业周期分为四个阶段:经济繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏。商业周期的起因是投资者在经济繁荣期间过度投资,导致市场供给过剩和生产能力过剩,从而导致经济萧条和衰退。随着市场的重新平衡和经济复苏,经济又会进入下一轮繁荣期。理论有相似,反观美林时钟,同样将经济周期划分为四个阶段:复苏、扩张、滞胀、衰退。经济周期的不同阶段,哪些资产的收益率会更高:复苏期:股票>债券>现金>大宗商品复苏期为经济上行,通胀下行阶段。在这个时期,企业往往能取得较佳盈利并会通过股票等方式加大融资,此外股票往往对经济形式更加敏感,因此这个时机投资股票收益率最好。此时期一般利率较低,而债券价格与市场利率有反向关系,因此债券也有一定的上升空间。复苏期由衰退期转来,因此在复苏期,投资者与消费者往往较谨慎配置商品,此外紧缩的货币政策也不利于大宗商品的价格,因此本阶段大宗商品的收益率较低。扩张期:大宗商品>股票>现金/债券此阶段经济通胀均上行。商品价格随着通胀一起长高,因此大宗商品此时最值得配置。由于通胀的抬头,往往此时会实行加息政策,导致利率上升,债券下降,通胀上升也增加了持有现金的机会成本。虽然此时期企业扩张,盈利仍增加,但由于加息及流动性等方面原因,股票收益并不如商品收益高。滞涨期:现金>大宗商品/债券>股票此时期经济下行,通胀上行。在此阶段,随着加息不断增加,","listText":"看了最新的小虎访谈,嘉宾提到了美林时钟,感觉很有意思:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/656935413\" target=\"_blank\">【虎友访谈】Lawrence:纳斯达克已在1月份形成底部</a>美林的“投资时钟”是一种把“资产”、“行业轮动”、“债券收益率曲线”以及“经济周期四个阶段”联系起来的方法,简而言之就是根据周期来投资。周期相信大家都不陌生,霍华德马克思在其著作《周期》中曾把商业周期分为四个阶段:经济繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏。商业周期的起因是投资者在经济繁荣期间过度投资,导致市场供给过剩和生产能力过剩,从而导致经济萧条和衰退。随着市场的重新平衡和经济复苏,经济又会进入下一轮繁荣期。理论有相似,反观美林时钟,同样将经济周期划分为四个阶段:复苏、扩张、滞胀、衰退。经济周期的不同阶段,哪些资产的收益率会更高:复苏期:股票>债券>现金>大宗商品复苏期为经济上行,通胀下行阶段。在这个时期,企业往往能取得较佳盈利并会通过股票等方式加大融资,此外股票往往对经济形式更加敏感,因此这个时机投资股票收益率最好。此时期一般利率较低,而债券价格与市场利率有反向关系,因此债券也有一定的上升空间。复苏期由衰退期转来,因此在复苏期,投资者与消费者往往较谨慎配置商品,此外紧缩的货币政策也不利于大宗商品的价格,因此本阶段大宗商品的收益率较低。扩张期:大宗商品>股票>现金/债券此阶段经济通胀均上行。商品价格随着通胀一起长高,因此大宗商品此时最值得配置。由于通胀的抬头,往往此时会实行加息政策,导致利率上升,债券下降,通胀上升也增加了持有现金的机会成本。虽然此时期企业扩张,盈利仍增加,但由于加息及流动性等方面原因,股票收益并不如商品收益高。滞涨期:现金>大宗商品/债券>股票此时期经济下行,通胀上行。在此阶段,随着加息不断增加,","text":"看了最新的小虎访谈,嘉宾提到了美林时钟,感觉很有意思:【虎友访谈】Lawrence:纳斯达克已在1月份形成底部美林的“投资时钟”是一种把“资产”、“行业轮动”、“债券收益率曲线”以及“经济周期四个阶段”联系起来的方法,简而言之就是根据周期来投资。周期相信大家都不陌生,霍华德马克思在其著作《周期》中曾把商业周期分为四个阶段:经济繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏。商业周期的起因是投资者在经济繁荣期间过度投资,导致市场供给过剩和生产能力过剩,从而导致经济萧条和衰退。随着市场的重新平衡和经济复苏,经济又会进入下一轮繁荣期。理论有相似,反观美林时钟,同样将经济周期划分为四个阶段:复苏、扩张、滞胀、衰退。经济周期的不同阶段,哪些资产的收益率会更高:复苏期:股票>债券>现金>大宗商品复苏期为经济上行,通胀下行阶段。在这个时期,企业往往能取得较佳盈利并会通过股票等方式加大融资,此外股票往往对经济形式更加敏感,因此这个时机投资股票收益率最好。此时期一般利率较低,而债券价格与市场利率有反向关系,因此债券也有一定的上升空间。复苏期由衰退期转来,因此在复苏期,投资者与消费者往往较谨慎配置商品,此外紧缩的货币政策也不利于大宗商品的价格,因此本阶段大宗商品的收益率较低。扩张期:大宗商品>股票>现金/债券此阶段经济通胀均上行。商品价格随着通胀一起长高,因此大宗商品此时最值得配置。由于通胀的抬头,往往此时会实行加息政策,导致利率上升,债券下降,通胀上升也增加了持有现金的机会成本。虽然此时期企业扩张,盈利仍增加,但由于加息及流动性等方面原因,股票收益并不如商品收益高。滞涨期:现金>大宗商品/债券>股票此时期经济下行,通胀上行。在此阶段,随着加息不断增加,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10af0199b1be098c12ec94002cdd598","width":"752","height":"667"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656386562","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":656363206,"gmtCreate":1683368566705,"gmtModify":1683368620893,"author":{"id":"3556146267296285","authorId":"3556146267296285","authorIdStr":"3556146267296285","name":"大伟1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656363206","repostId":"656386562","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":656386562,"gmtCreate":1683363695056,"gmtModify":1683363767071,"author":{"id":"4130377405762172","authorId":"4130377405762172","authorIdStr":"4130377405762172","name":"港乜嘢吖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e11ebd9218be3a4ecb251c3d8f63596","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"如何使用周期配置资产|一文看懂美林投资时钟","htmlText":"看了最新的小虎访谈,嘉宾提到了美林时钟,感觉很有意思:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/656935413\" target=\"_blank\">【虎友访谈】Lawrence:纳斯达克已在1月份形成底部</a>美林的“投资时钟”是一种把“资产”、“行业轮动”、“债券收益率曲线”以及“经济周期四个阶段”联系起来的方法,简而言之就是根据周期来投资。周期相信大家都不陌生,霍华德马克思在其著作《周期》中曾把商业周期分为四个阶段:经济繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏。商业周期的起因是投资者在经济繁荣期间过度投资,导致市场供给过剩和生产能力过剩,从而导致经济萧条和衰退。随着市场的重新平衡和经济复苏,经济又会进入下一轮繁荣期。理论有相似,反观美林时钟,同样将经济周期划分为四个阶段:复苏、扩张、滞胀、衰退。经济周期的不同阶段,哪些资产的收益率会更高:复苏期:股票>债券>现金>大宗商品复苏期为经济上行,通胀下行阶段。在这个时期,企业往往能取得较佳盈利并会通过股票等方式加大融资,此外股票往往对经济形式更加敏感,因此这个时机投资股票收益率最好。此时期一般利率较低,而债券价格与市场利率有反向关系,因此债券也有一定的上升空间。复苏期由衰退期转来,因此在复苏期,投资者与消费者往往较谨慎配置商品,此外紧缩的货币政策也不利于大宗商品的价格,因此本阶段大宗商品的收益率较低。扩张期:大宗商品>股票>现金/债券此阶段经济通胀均上行。商品价格随着通胀一起长高,因此大宗商品此时最值得配置。由于通胀的抬头,往往此时会实行加息政策,导致利率上升,债券下降,通胀上升也增加了持有现金的机会成本。虽然此时期企业扩张,盈利仍增加,但由于加息及流动性等方面原因,股票收益并不如商品收益高。滞涨期:现金>大宗商品/债券>股票此时期经济下行,通胀上行。在此阶段,随着加息不断增加,","listText":"看了最新的小虎访谈,嘉宾提到了美林时钟,感觉很有意思:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/656935413\" target=\"_blank\">【虎友访谈】Lawrence:纳斯达克已在1月份形成底部</a>美林的“投资时钟”是一种把“资产”、“行业轮动”、“债券收益率曲线”以及“经济周期四个阶段”联系起来的方法,简而言之就是根据周期来投资。周期相信大家都不陌生,霍华德马克思在其著作《周期》中曾把商业周期分为四个阶段:经济繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏。商业周期的起因是投资者在经济繁荣期间过度投资,导致市场供给过剩和生产能力过剩,从而导致经济萧条和衰退。随着市场的重新平衡和经济复苏,经济又会进入下一轮繁荣期。理论有相似,反观美林时钟,同样将经济周期划分为四个阶段:复苏、扩张、滞胀、衰退。经济周期的不同阶段,哪些资产的收益率会更高:复苏期:股票>债券>现金>大宗商品复苏期为经济上行,通胀下行阶段。在这个时期,企业往往能取得较佳盈利并会通过股票等方式加大融资,此外股票往往对经济形式更加敏感,因此这个时机投资股票收益率最好。此时期一般利率较低,而债券价格与市场利率有反向关系,因此债券也有一定的上升空间。复苏期由衰退期转来,因此在复苏期,投资者与消费者往往较谨慎配置商品,此外紧缩的货币政策也不利于大宗商品的价格,因此本阶段大宗商品的收益率较低。扩张期:大宗商品>股票>现金/债券此阶段经济通胀均上行。商品价格随着通胀一起长高,因此大宗商品此时最值得配置。由于通胀的抬头,往往此时会实行加息政策,导致利率上升,债券下降,通胀上升也增加了持有现金的机会成本。虽然此时期企业扩张,盈利仍增加,但由于加息及流动性等方面原因,股票收益并不如商品收益高。滞涨期:现金>大宗商品/债券>股票此时期经济下行,通胀上行。在此阶段,随着加息不断增加,","text":"看了最新的小虎访谈,嘉宾提到了美林时钟,感觉很有意思:【虎友访谈】Lawrence:纳斯达克已在1月份形成底部美林的“投资时钟”是一种把“资产”、“行业轮动”、“债券收益率曲线”以及“经济周期四个阶段”联系起来的方法,简而言之就是根据周期来投资。周期相信大家都不陌生,霍华德马克思在其著作《周期》中曾把商业周期分为四个阶段:经济繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏。商业周期的起因是投资者在经济繁荣期间过度投资,导致市场供给过剩和生产能力过剩,从而导致经济萧条和衰退。随着市场的重新平衡和经济复苏,经济又会进入下一轮繁荣期。理论有相似,反观美林时钟,同样将经济周期划分为四个阶段:复苏、扩张、滞胀、衰退。经济周期的不同阶段,哪些资产的收益率会更高:复苏期:股票>债券>现金>大宗商品复苏期为经济上行,通胀下行阶段。在这个时期,企业往往能取得较佳盈利并会通过股票等方式加大融资,此外股票往往对经济形式更加敏感,因此这个时机投资股票收益率最好。此时期一般利率较低,而债券价格与市场利率有反向关系,因此债券也有一定的上升空间。复苏期由衰退期转来,因此在复苏期,投资者与消费者往往较谨慎配置商品,此外紧缩的货币政策也不利于大宗商品的价格,因此本阶段大宗商品的收益率较低。扩张期:大宗商品>股票>现金/债券此阶段经济通胀均上行。商品价格随着通胀一起长高,因此大宗商品此时最值得配置。由于通胀的抬头,往往此时会实行加息政策,导致利率上升,债券下降,通胀上升也增加了持有现金的机会成本。虽然此时期企业扩张,盈利仍增加,但由于加息及流动性等方面原因,股票收益并不如商品收益高。滞涨期:现金>大宗商品/债券>股票此时期经济下行,通胀上行。在此阶段,随着加息不断增加,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10af0199b1be098c12ec94002cdd598","width":"752","height":"667"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656386562","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}