$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$I am still deciding on whether to participate on the dividend or sell before Ex date (11 May 2021) for my investment position (not trading).I pull out some historical data to guide my decision. I feel that many of us may face the same dilemma so decide to share some findings.Base on historical data, the probability of YZJ to recover the dividend after Ex date is higher when both STI index and YZJ are experiencing bull run. However, we will not know this year is a bull or bear until the year end. What we can do is to anticipate it. Refer to the photo for the findings

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Is YZJ Cheap or Expensive?Based on 10 years Discounted CashflowFair value: $1.92With 10% margin: $1.73With 20% margin: $1.54Based on DCF current price of $1.49 still look reasonable.Based on the photoCurrent price relative to historical average still look reasonable.This is shipping industry supercycle so it would not be surprised if the price can be valued between Highest and Average PB/PE

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$YZJ from a technical perspectiveYZY business fundamental remains intact and what has changed was just the price.Looking at Picture 1 yzj is still on a uptrend with long term moving averages sloping up+trend line.Looking at Picture 2 yzj is a textbook breakout and retrace to find support at previous resistance around $1.55. It may be due for a rebound based on1) Previous resistance act as a support 2) Stochastic oversold 3) Candle stick pattern of hammer (I don't really look at candle stick pattern actually)However, remember that TA is just a probability.

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Evergrande debt implication on YZJYZJ has limited disclosure on its debt investments. So there is no information showing YZJ actually held Evergrande DebtAnalysis from public available informationSource: YZJ 1H Financial ResultTotal Debt amortised at cost:10,907,170+5,719,110=16,626,280Debt investment as a percentages of total asset:16,626,280/47,334,191 = 35% This means that if all YZJ debt investment get wipe out, 35% of its assets will be goneConcern about Real Estate debt default.About 41% of its debt investments were from real estate sector.0.41 x 16,626,280 = 6,816,774.8Real estate debt investment as a percentage of total asset:6,816,774.8/47,334,191 =14.4%This means that if all YZJ real estate related

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$There are bullish signs of build up around the resistance level. An effective breakout* would likely to occur soon.*Effective mean gap up or long bullish candle piercing through resistance level. 

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Spinning off of Debt investmentsYZJ is spinning off and listing its Debt investments arm.As at end of 3rd quarter, YZJ has in book 10,917,649,000CNY (SGD2.3 billion) worth of debt investments. This SDG2.3billion if sell of at book value would mean sell off at about SGD0.59.This cash can be used for 1) Ship building growth2) Capital Reduction via dividend and/or share purchaseWhat if the listing of this arm at IPO price higher than SGD 2.3billion? 

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$On 5 Nov 2021, YZJ exercised 5 million share buy back at SGD1.30What may be the implication?From Q3 result, part of its debt investments has been redeemed (SGD1.4B|CNY6.8). This means that YZJ is sitting on cash. Idle cash is costly so it can be reinvested in more shipyards, other businesses or maximised shareholder value through dividend/share repurchase.At $1.30, the management feel its stock is undervalued.The maximum number of share authorised to buy: 394,851,600 Q3 Result is past tense, stock is forward looking. Let me end with this sentence挡风玻璃为什么比后视镜大，因为前面的路比过去的更重要，你可以回头看，但别忘了前行的路...

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ 扬子江船业是属于景气循环行业，盈利会跟着景气复苏。景气坏的时候就是买点，前提是要公司基本面不变。景气好的时候就是买点。用时间换取高收益。不断的接到订单是肯定未来的复苏。不过，杨子江投资的债务有点多，如果出现违约，这是一个较大的风险。钢铁上涨和美元走弱都会对她造成一定的伤害。估值: 每股净值大概 1.7星币，打个8这也是1.36星币。现在的股价实在是低估了。以上只是个人观点，提供参考

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Some friends ask me that according to Relative strength index (RSI) now is overbought and coming down. To sell or not? To me now is something called RSI stoning. Meaning that if you are stort term trade, this may be a good time to earn. Do not anticipate the high. For Technical Analyst, do not draw conclusion base on emotion. The next few days need to see if it continue above oversold region. I will continue to hold if it continue to be above 70. Will sell if the RSI start to come down. This is for my short term trade

$U.S. Steel(X)$ Don't concentrate your bet in a single sector. Tech down but traditional businesses are up. 

$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$There is a bullish sign for Keppel DC accompanied by recent institutions Inflow(from SGX).It may be a sign of reversal occurring based on TA and chip analysis.$2.44 should continue to hold for this reversal to occur. Failure of reversal would occur if there is an effective breakdown* of $2.44 level.*Effectively breakdown refers to long bearish candle or gap down. 

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Today $1.7x is different from $1.7x in 2017Will look from perspective of Price to Book and all else equal.Look at the Price to Book (PB) ratio:2017: 1.2x PB for price of $1.7x2019: 1.04x PB for price of 1.6x2021: 0.92x PE for price of 1.6xIn 2019, th share price crashed from high was due to one time extraordinary incident. If without this extraordinary event, price may go higher but no one can predict the future.The lower valuation given today may factor in the risk of debt investment and political risk.

$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$近日，费半和纳指分分下挫，杀估值。估值过高回调是健康的。新加坡的电子股因此被拖累了。如果从估值的角度来看，星国的电子股的本益比落在11-20倍之间。虽然成长性没比美股高，但可以说是相对便宜的。从成长性和未来性来看，半导体的需求依然强劲。这些公司就可以达上这班车。大道至简：只从本益比的角度来看1）AEM holding: 12全年营收增涨85％ （这幅度的增长不输给美国的半导体公司）2）UMS holding:16全年营收增涨9％3）Frencken Group:13全年营收增涨1.1％4）Venture Corporation:19全年营收下跌 18％总结来说，好产业，好公司和好价格就可以带来好的收益。耐心啊。

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ YZJ share price has went up after the breakout as per Red line. In short term, yzj should consolidate in the range within the highest (1.31) and the lowest (1.23) of the highest volume recently (as per 2 blue lines). The moving averages (both ST and LT) are arranged in a bullish manner.Effective* breakdown of 1.23 would mean yzj is turning weak, at least in the short term.*Effective mean gap down or long bearish candle piercing through. 

$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$Is it worth to revisit?When people talk about Comfortdelgro the first thing come to their mind is Taxis. Private hired cars caused disruption to the industry and is here to stay. One may overstate the impact of Taxi segment of Comfortdelgro. Look at the picture from 2021 1H Financial update. Taxi only account less than 15% of its revenue.More than 70% of its revenue come from its public transport segment. In Singapore the Duopoly (SMRT and SBS) are responsible in our public transport operations. Although there are Goahead and Towertransit, these 2 remain the major players in public transport. The Bus revenue is partially secured with Bus contractual model while Train revenue risk

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ As a short term trader what will I do if I am looking to take profit for YZJ?Fixed profit target: $1.46 which coincide with previous historical resistance areaTrailing profit target:Pull out 5-day moving average. As long as the price stay above the 5MA I will continue to hold and don't anticipate the high. I will Sell when 5MA Effectively broken. *Effective mean gap down or long bearish candle piercing through support level (5MA).

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$Nice Gap up

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$With the short consolidation for the past week, YZJ is going to challenge previous high of $1.31. Need to monitor these few days movement. If fail to breakout, consolidation will continue until it shows a direction. Effective* breakout of $1.31 would mean yzj is continued its uptrend, at least in the short term.*Effective mean gap up or long bullish candle piercing through. 

$T2 Biosystems(TTOO)$炒股停损要做好，尤其是题材股。希望你翻多，我等你。

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Revenue fall 20% 1H2021 Vs 1H2020Net profit up 39% 1H2021 Vs 1H2020UOB (CIMB) estimateRevenue est: RMB5.4BRevenue actual: RMB 3.9BNet profit est: RMB745m (RMB680-710)Net profit actual:RMB902m Expectations from UOBShipping margin expansion❌Lower trading business✔️