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2021-12-16

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@Ivan_甘灿荣:通胀爆表，联储铁定鹰派？原油、黄金何去何从

2021-12-16

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2021-11-03

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2021-11-02

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2021-10-31

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从特点来看，美元指数已经进入至贬值两年的时间点，而其中往往会出现一个反弹高点（至于该高点为何形成，请回看11月24日的直播内容），该反弹高点出现后美元指数均出现大幅下跌，能否创前期新低还不得而知，但最金融市场来说，无疑是利多的反应。 关于贵金属 过去一年，黄金走势和美元指数的走势可谓是完全负相关。如果美元走跌的话，那么对黄金的多头来说就是最好的事情。叠加本月结束后，黄金常态的调整时间也到了尾声（16-17个月），届时很可能是黄金新一轮看涨行情的开端，所以大家要密切留意。 关于原油 原油对加息的敏感度没那么高，但只要并非实质性鹰派措施，对打压油价的影响不大。关键还是供需平衡方面的消息。当前原油供应端的最后利空消息，就剩下伊朗核协议的进程了，这个消息将影响来年油价的整体走势。继续制裁伊朗，则油价依","text":"整个金融市场翘首以盼的11月美国通胀数据，在上周五尘埃落定，通胀数据为6.8%，虽然也为近40年来的通胀高位，但仍低于市场预期7%的通胀数据，最少说明仍未到最恐慌的时候，机构交易者也将首次加息的时点预期从明年3月推迟至6月开始，次数也有所减少。尤其是能源价格下跌后，大部分经济学家认为通胀数据的峰值已现，后续会逐步回落。尽管通胀可能回落，但联储的“口头”鹰派肯定少不了，能用“嘴”把通胀打下来就最好不过了。但是金融市场就是个“坏孩子”，讲道理往往是不听的，非要作死挑拨家长底线遭一顿毒打才乖乖听话。所以说，明年市场的好坏全看预期联储啥时候动真格，没真格前接着奏乐接着舞。 关于美元指数 近期的美元指数与紧缩预期息息相关。自6月份以来，美元指数就一路上涨，而过程一直伴随着联储紧缩的预期。我之前在直播课中表达过，根据美元周期的特点，这种预期会在某一时刻出现大幅扭转，也即市场会从政策紧缩预期快速转向宽松预期，而该时点随着通胀数据尘埃落定后，将更为确定，简单点说，美元指数可能将进入快速下跌的通道中。 从特点来看，美元指数已经进入至贬值两年的时间点，而其中往往会出现一个反弹高点（至于该高点为何形成，请回看11月24日的直播内容），该反弹高点出现后美元指数均出现大幅下跌，能否创前期新低还不得而知，但最金融市场来说，无疑是利多的反应。 关于贵金属 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