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chanelle
2021-12-13
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Bull Run Enters Late Cycle
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2021-12-13
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2021-12-06
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2021-12-18
hello how is every doing
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how is every doing","listText":"hello how is every doing","text":"hello how is every doing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699897633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604811465,"gmtCreate":1639368688039,"gmtModify":1639368688168,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554796455509367","idStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604811465","repostId":"1163753909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604811854,"gmtCreate":1639368589246,"gmtModify":1639368589369,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554796455509367","idStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604811854","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>\n <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>\n <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p>\n<p>Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p>\n<p>However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p>\n<p>Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p>\n<p>Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p>\n<p>All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 11:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608719720,"gmtCreate":1638789183749,"gmtModify":1638789185420,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554796455509367","idStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608719720","repostId":"2188243825","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":604811854,"gmtCreate":1639368589246,"gmtModify":1639368589369,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554796455509367","authorIdStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604811854","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>\n <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>\n <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p>\n<p>Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p>\n<p>However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p>\n<p>Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p>\n<p>Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p>\n<p>All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 11:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604811465,"gmtCreate":1639368688039,"gmtModify":1639368688168,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554796455509367","authorIdStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604811465","repostId":"1163753909","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163753909","pubTimestamp":1639365199,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163753909?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163753909","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.\nPalantir no","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.</li>\n <li>Palantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within decentralized finance applications.</li>\n <li>Palantir's worked with the IRS since 2013 and prior to the release of Foundry, Gotham was deployed for large financial institutions.</li>\n <li>In today's article, I will highlight Palantir's roots that lead back to PayPal as well as Palantir's opportunity within fintech.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19fbe474b2b948c1dd476507722b776\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Olemedia/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>When it comes to Palantir (PLTR), most investors are excited by its government business as well as its opportunity in the commercial sector with Foundry for Builders. Today, ~60% of Palantir's business stems from the government, while the other portion comes from the commercial sector. Palantir's platform is known for its artificial intelligence (AI) and deep data insights that provide its customers with critical information to help maximize their profits. Palantir's solutions are built around \"mission-driven engineering\" to integrate information from siloed and unstructured data sets. In this article, we'll explore Palantir's roots that go back to the payments industry and PayPal.</p>\n<p>PayPal and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel approached fellow Palantir co-founder, Stephen Cohen, in 2004 and told him about his idea for Palantir, here's what he envisioned.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Let's take some of the ideas from the PayPal Anti-Fraud platform and let's try to generalize them to solve the country's counterterrorism problem. And we'll start by selling it directly to the U.S. Government.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n And while we're at it, let's solve the generalized enterprise information management platforms that are out there. Let's help big enterprises use a Silicon Valley approach to understanding their data.\"-Stephen Cohen, 2013\n</blockquote>\n<p>Five years ago, a quarter of Palantir's business stemmed from the financial sector - while Palantir's connection to the fintech may not be clear on the surface, the company has a significant opportunity to deploy its AI, specifically Foundry, for fintech applications whether that's current banks or fintech companies such as Elementus, a blockchain analytics platform. Palantir currently serves the IRS and the current banking infrastructure as well as future innovative payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and smart contracts.</p>\n<p><b>Deep Roots In Payments</b></p>\n<p>Much of the Palantir \"DNA\" and culture is replicated from PayPal. Palantir's core technology was also inspired by PayPal, specifically PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal with Max Levchin and would later go on to co-find Palantir along with Nathan Gettings, Palantir's first chief technology officer, who was an engineer at PayPal where he worked closely with Levchin fighting payment fraud. This PayPal Anti-Fraud framework would go on to provide the fundamental building blocks for Palantir's first initiative to fight counterterrorism.</p>\n<p>Palantir deploys technology within the government that is similar to what it deploys for large financial institutions. The challenges that financial institutions must overcome are similar to those faced in the government context because there are many data sources and many systems that feed input into the financial service sector as well as the government sector. Palantir uses deep data analytics to identify patterns and trends within this information to help its customers manage risk and execute their plans to better navigate complex environments that are constantly changing.</p>\n<p>In 2016, about 25% of Palantir's business came from the financial sector as Palantir deployed its Gotham Platform to investigate fraud for large institutions, as reported in its S1. Palantir works with a lot of banks and replaced legacy technology that's been around for over 30 years. For example, Credit Suisse has used Palantir since 2013 to analyze risks and detect fraud using data from more than a hundred systems across their operations.</p>\n<p>Palantir seeks to become the central operating system for entire industries rather than just a singular customer and Palantir sees an opportunity to create similar industry-wide partnerships within the financial services industry as it has within the U.S. government and aviation industry. Palantir's consistently winning government contracts while Palantir partnered with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) to launch SkyWise in 2017 and now works with over 100 airlines.</p>\n<p>Significant Opportunity At Hand</p>\n<p>On November 23, Palantir launched Foundry for Crypto, which will leverage Foundry's defined data integration to automatically build data pipelines and convert unorganized data into a transparent hub.</p>\n<p>Foundry for Crypto will enable Web3 startups to leverage the technology that financial institutions use to fight crime. With the current digital transformation underway and the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, Palantir leverages its data expertise to power the next generation of finance software.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2a3fb5ad32eff1f464c225cc4b1f1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"621\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Offerings | Crypto</span></p>\n<p>As indicated above, Palantir is chain-agnostic, meaning that Palantir works with multiple blockchains. Palantir integrates transaction data as well as smart contract data which will enable Palantir to leverage the core competencies of its AI and data analysis to provide its KYC (Know-Your-Customer) insights. For example, if somebody were to make a transaction using cryptocurrency from a non-custodial wallet, then it'd typically be a challenge to decipher KYC information from that wallet since the blockchain itself is encrypted and decentralized. Palantir traces the assets in a non-custodial wallet and tracks where the assets were transferred from. This allows Palantir to locate the exchange the asset was originally transferred from and then Palantir can track customer data from the crypto exchange where the asset was purchased, like Coinbase.</p>\n<p>The example above highlights how Palantir digs deep and scrapes the data from the blockchain to learn about a specific individual. This goes a long way in validating secure transactions as Palantir identifies malicious transactions on the blockchain, based on the transaction's location and specific properties. Companies that want to accept cryptocurrencies need secure solutions while they also want to gather insights around their customers to propel their businesses. BNPL companies, like Affirm, which was started by Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings, use advanced risk modeling (also referred to as AI) to offer consumers more fair credit assessments because BNPL companies have access to essential data from both the merchant and the consumer. Palantir could leverage its AI and data insights to help its customers better understand their clientele to offer targeted marketing campaigns or help them identify opportunities that will decrease expenses.</p>\n<p>Foundry for Crypto is still in its early adoption stage as it was recently rolled out and Palantir has multiple opportunities to implement this platform in a variety of industries as payment technology continues to evolve and will reshape the current payments landscape.</p>\n<p>Smart contracts are another significant opportunity for Palantir. Smart contracts are a set of protocols that are validated and carried out on the flow of data, meaning that once the contract is fulfilled, the data will indicate the contract is satisfied and ensure that the liable party transfers the agreed-upon funds. Palantir has a great opportunity to play a role in the facilitation of data within smart contracts while removing the costs of working with third networks and banks.</p>\n<p>One of Palantir's SPAC investments, BlackSky, deploys Foundry and processes real-time satellite imagery to monitor events taking place on Earth. For example, BlackSky can detect if the shipment has been delivered since BlackSky's satellites take images multiple times throughout the day. BlackSky monitors data and information that can only be processed through imagery and is the custodian of monitoring these actions and generating these actions into data points, so that they can inform smart contracts as to whether or not the contract was satisfied. This is a great example of how Palantir's customers may leverage Foundry to process information relating to digital assets and new digital protocols.</p>\n<p><b>The Government's Implemented Palantir's \"FinTech\" Solution Since 2013</b></p>\n<p>The IRS started working with Palantir in 2013 and Palantir continues to land and expand its partnership with the IRS as it's been awarded nearly $20 million from them over the last 12 months.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748221a3ed9fc319e2be6ebf40a8e95\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: USAspending.gov</span></p>\n<p>In May, the IRS launched \"Operation Hidden Gem\", which is an initiative to focus on taxpayers who don't report cryptocurrencies gains. Carolyn Schenck, National Fraud Counsel for the IRS, recently had the following in regards to cryptocurrencies.</p>\n<blockquote>\n These transactions are not anonymous, we see you.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>Another issue around crypto fraud, which Palantir's AML is designed to detect, is similar to PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. The IRS recently revealed in its annual report that it seized $3.5 billion so far this year from cryptocurrency-related fraud. Palantir enables the IRS with the solutions that decipher criminal financial schemes and analyzes a variety of data sources in real-time. In the past, Palantir allowed the IRS to track the flow of funds or the flow of assets. For example, if someone were to transfer assets to a bank in the Cayman Islands and then withdraw the cash in the U.S. and use it for a down payment on something like an additional property, Palantir's deep data analysis will connect this information that's siloed, and present it to the IRS so that they can handle the specific situations accordingly.</p>\n<p>Based on Palantir's recent launch of Foundry for Crypto, Palantir could already be using its platform to provide real value for the U.S. government. As more information moves online and it becomes more complex to track complex digital assets, Palantir's technology remains one step ahead of trends when it comes to AI. Palantir continuously creates out-of-the-box solutions for the government, it then filters for commercial use cases.</p>\n<p>Now, let's use the L.A. Valuation Stevens Model to provide an updated fair value, then discuss risks associated with Palantir's entrance into crypto.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Palantir continues to land new commercial clients and demonstrate the value of its platform through strong quarterly results. In Q3, Palantir grew its commercial customer count by 46% quarter-over-quarter to over 200 customers. Below are some of Palantir's notable financial metrics.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>$1.43B in TTM revenue</p></li>\n <li><p>77% gross profit margins</p></li>\n <li><p>$120 billion TAM</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</b></p>\n<p>To determine Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Assumptions:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1499608f487046f492724343ce6250\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Results:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cad4b65a88b3612deb98a837e64a5193\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"912\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p>\n<p>Based on conservative estimates, Palantir is worth ~$31 today when accounting for future dilution, hence Palantir is significantly undervalued.</p>\n<p>In order for us to determine if Palantir is worth an investment today, we'll project the expected return for Palantir over the next 10 years at today's price. To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple (35x) to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns beat our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7e1db2ce3e749cd8088652a7029424\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p>\n<p>Palantir is expected to generate ~20% annualized returns over the next 10 years, therefore, now is an ideal time to add to a position or start one. Palantir's expected to beat our 15% hurdle rate by a wide margin, hence I rate Palantir a strong buy around $20.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i>There are unforeseen risks given that cryptocurrency is a relatively new technology and there is uncertainty around future regulation.</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Palantir faces competition from both large incumbent tech companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) as well as startups such as Chainalysis. Palantir needs to offer solutions that generate alpha in digital environments that leverage future technological innovations. Chainalysis is a fintech startup that offers KYC and AML automated transaction monitoring on multiple blockchains, similar to Foundry for Crypto. Chainalysis raised $100 million this summer at a $4.2 billion valuation and operates in over 60 countries. On the other side of the spectrum are the large tech giants such as Amazon, which started offering the Amazon Managed Blockchain service in 2018, which makes it easy to utilize blockchains such as Ethereum.</p>\n<p>The intersection of digital payments resembles a large opportunity as the banks and card networks have incredibly large networks developed at scale. This results in a fintech landscape that is ripe for innovation and it will be increasingly more competitive, as the top 250 fintech unicorns have raised over $73 billion since 2016. Palantir will rely on developing the next wave of AI solutions when it comes to payments, by deploying them for the government to create the core technology and then filtering the solution for the commercial sector.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Palantir is at the forefront of the digital transformation underway as its platform is the connective tissue for modern organizations to generate insights from many sources of information. In regard to payments and fintech, Palantir has deep roots that link back to the early days of PayPal as Palantir's targeted the large financial institutions since the early 2010s. Palantir continues to expand its platform to apply its deep data insights to information within decentralized finance applications like smart contracts. Palantir's well-positioned to leverage its platform to connect the data from these blockchain applications and with its AI expertise to enable its customers to offer innovative fintech solutions.</p>\n<p>I've been bullish on Palantir over the past year and trading below $20, Palantir represents an attractive price for long-term investors given that Palantir is a generational company and has strong ties to PayPal's early days. I rate Palantir a strong buy at $20.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 11:13 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474525-palantir-stock-foundry-for-crypto-fintech-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.\nPalantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474525-palantir-stock-foundry-for-crypto-fintech-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474525-palantir-stock-foundry-for-crypto-fintech-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163753909","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.\nPalantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within decentralized finance applications.\nPalantir's worked with the IRS since 2013 and prior to the release of Foundry, Gotham was deployed for large financial institutions.\nIn today's article, I will highlight Palantir's roots that lead back to PayPal as well as Palantir's opportunity within fintech.\n\nOlemedia/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nWhen it comes to Palantir (PLTR), most investors are excited by its government business as well as its opportunity in the commercial sector with Foundry for Builders. Today, ~60% of Palantir's business stems from the government, while the other portion comes from the commercial sector. Palantir's platform is known for its artificial intelligence (AI) and deep data insights that provide its customers with critical information to help maximize their profits. Palantir's solutions are built around \"mission-driven engineering\" to integrate information from siloed and unstructured data sets. In this article, we'll explore Palantir's roots that go back to the payments industry and PayPal.\nPayPal and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel approached fellow Palantir co-founder, Stephen Cohen, in 2004 and told him about his idea for Palantir, here's what he envisioned.\n\n Let's take some of the ideas from the PayPal Anti-Fraud platform and let's try to generalize them to solve the country's counterterrorism problem. And we'll start by selling it directly to the U.S. Government.\n\n\n And while we're at it, let's solve the generalized enterprise information management platforms that are out there. Let's help big enterprises use a Silicon Valley approach to understanding their data.\"-Stephen Cohen, 2013\n\nFive years ago, a quarter of Palantir's business stemmed from the financial sector - while Palantir's connection to the fintech may not be clear on the surface, the company has a significant opportunity to deploy its AI, specifically Foundry, for fintech applications whether that's current banks or fintech companies such as Elementus, a blockchain analytics platform. Palantir currently serves the IRS and the current banking infrastructure as well as future innovative payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and smart contracts.\nDeep Roots In Payments\nMuch of the Palantir \"DNA\" and culture is replicated from PayPal. Palantir's core technology was also inspired by PayPal, specifically PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal with Max Levchin and would later go on to co-find Palantir along with Nathan Gettings, Palantir's first chief technology officer, who was an engineer at PayPal where he worked closely with Levchin fighting payment fraud. This PayPal Anti-Fraud framework would go on to provide the fundamental building blocks for Palantir's first initiative to fight counterterrorism.\nPalantir deploys technology within the government that is similar to what it deploys for large financial institutions. The challenges that financial institutions must overcome are similar to those faced in the government context because there are many data sources and many systems that feed input into the financial service sector as well as the government sector. Palantir uses deep data analytics to identify patterns and trends within this information to help its customers manage risk and execute their plans to better navigate complex environments that are constantly changing.\nIn 2016, about 25% of Palantir's business came from the financial sector as Palantir deployed its Gotham Platform to investigate fraud for large institutions, as reported in its S1. Palantir works with a lot of banks and replaced legacy technology that's been around for over 30 years. For example, Credit Suisse has used Palantir since 2013 to analyze risks and detect fraud using data from more than a hundred systems across their operations.\nPalantir seeks to become the central operating system for entire industries rather than just a singular customer and Palantir sees an opportunity to create similar industry-wide partnerships within the financial services industry as it has within the U.S. government and aviation industry. Palantir's consistently winning government contracts while Palantir partnered with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) to launch SkyWise in 2017 and now works with over 100 airlines.\nSignificant Opportunity At Hand\nOn November 23, Palantir launched Foundry for Crypto, which will leverage Foundry's defined data integration to automatically build data pipelines and convert unorganized data into a transparent hub.\nFoundry for Crypto will enable Web3 startups to leverage the technology that financial institutions use to fight crime. With the current digital transformation underway and the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, Palantir leverages its data expertise to power the next generation of finance software.\nSource: Offerings | Crypto\nAs indicated above, Palantir is chain-agnostic, meaning that Palantir works with multiple blockchains. Palantir integrates transaction data as well as smart contract data which will enable Palantir to leverage the core competencies of its AI and data analysis to provide its KYC (Know-Your-Customer) insights. For example, if somebody were to make a transaction using cryptocurrency from a non-custodial wallet, then it'd typically be a challenge to decipher KYC information from that wallet since the blockchain itself is encrypted and decentralized. Palantir traces the assets in a non-custodial wallet and tracks where the assets were transferred from. This allows Palantir to locate the exchange the asset was originally transferred from and then Palantir can track customer data from the crypto exchange where the asset was purchased, like Coinbase.\nThe example above highlights how Palantir digs deep and scrapes the data from the blockchain to learn about a specific individual. This goes a long way in validating secure transactions as Palantir identifies malicious transactions on the blockchain, based on the transaction's location and specific properties. Companies that want to accept cryptocurrencies need secure solutions while they also want to gather insights around their customers to propel their businesses. BNPL companies, like Affirm, which was started by Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings, use advanced risk modeling (also referred to as AI) to offer consumers more fair credit assessments because BNPL companies have access to essential data from both the merchant and the consumer. Palantir could leverage its AI and data insights to help its customers better understand their clientele to offer targeted marketing campaigns or help them identify opportunities that will decrease expenses.\nFoundry for Crypto is still in its early adoption stage as it was recently rolled out and Palantir has multiple opportunities to implement this platform in a variety of industries as payment technology continues to evolve and will reshape the current payments landscape.\nSmart contracts are another significant opportunity for Palantir. Smart contracts are a set of protocols that are validated and carried out on the flow of data, meaning that once the contract is fulfilled, the data will indicate the contract is satisfied and ensure that the liable party transfers the agreed-upon funds. Palantir has a great opportunity to play a role in the facilitation of data within smart contracts while removing the costs of working with third networks and banks.\nOne of Palantir's SPAC investments, BlackSky, deploys Foundry and processes real-time satellite imagery to monitor events taking place on Earth. For example, BlackSky can detect if the shipment has been delivered since BlackSky's satellites take images multiple times throughout the day. BlackSky monitors data and information that can only be processed through imagery and is the custodian of monitoring these actions and generating these actions into data points, so that they can inform smart contracts as to whether or not the contract was satisfied. This is a great example of how Palantir's customers may leverage Foundry to process information relating to digital assets and new digital protocols.\nThe Government's Implemented Palantir's \"FinTech\" Solution Since 2013\nThe IRS started working with Palantir in 2013 and Palantir continues to land and expand its partnership with the IRS as it's been awarded nearly $20 million from them over the last 12 months.\nSource: USAspending.gov\nIn May, the IRS launched \"Operation Hidden Gem\", which is an initiative to focus on taxpayers who don't report cryptocurrencies gains. Carolyn Schenck, National Fraud Counsel for the IRS, recently had the following in regards to cryptocurrencies.\n\n These transactions are not anonymous, we see you.\"\n\nAnother issue around crypto fraud, which Palantir's AML is designed to detect, is similar to PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. The IRS recently revealed in its annual report that it seized $3.5 billion so far this year from cryptocurrency-related fraud. Palantir enables the IRS with the solutions that decipher criminal financial schemes and analyzes a variety of data sources in real-time. In the past, Palantir allowed the IRS to track the flow of funds or the flow of assets. For example, if someone were to transfer assets to a bank in the Cayman Islands and then withdraw the cash in the U.S. and use it for a down payment on something like an additional property, Palantir's deep data analysis will connect this information that's siloed, and present it to the IRS so that they can handle the specific situations accordingly.\nBased on Palantir's recent launch of Foundry for Crypto, Palantir could already be using its platform to provide real value for the U.S. government. As more information moves online and it becomes more complex to track complex digital assets, Palantir's technology remains one step ahead of trends when it comes to AI. Palantir continuously creates out-of-the-box solutions for the government, it then filters for commercial use cases.\nNow, let's use the L.A. Valuation Stevens Model to provide an updated fair value, then discuss risks associated with Palantir's entrance into crypto.\nValuation\nPalantir continues to land new commercial clients and demonstrate the value of its platform through strong quarterly results. In Q3, Palantir grew its commercial customer count by 46% quarter-over-quarter to over 200 customers. Below are some of Palantir's notable financial metrics.\n\n$1.43B in TTM revenue\n77% gross profit margins\n$120 billion TAM\n\nPalantir's Fair Value And Expected Return\nTo determine Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nAssumptions:\n\nResults:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nBased on conservative estimates, Palantir is worth ~$31 today when accounting for future dilution, hence Palantir is significantly undervalued.\nIn order for us to determine if Palantir is worth an investment today, we'll project the expected return for Palantir over the next 10 years at today's price. To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple (35x) to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns beat our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nPalantir is expected to generate ~20% annualized returns over the next 10 years, therefore, now is an ideal time to add to a position or start one. Palantir's expected to beat our 15% hurdle rate by a wide margin, hence I rate Palantir a strong buy around $20.\nRisks\n\nThere are unforeseen risks given that cryptocurrency is a relatively new technology and there is uncertainty around future regulation.\n\nPalantir faces competition from both large incumbent tech companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) as well as startups such as Chainalysis. Palantir needs to offer solutions that generate alpha in digital environments that leverage future technological innovations. Chainalysis is a fintech startup that offers KYC and AML automated transaction monitoring on multiple blockchains, similar to Foundry for Crypto. Chainalysis raised $100 million this summer at a $4.2 billion valuation and operates in over 60 countries. On the other side of the spectrum are the large tech giants such as Amazon, which started offering the Amazon Managed Blockchain service in 2018, which makes it easy to utilize blockchains such as Ethereum.\nThe intersection of digital payments resembles a large opportunity as the banks and card networks have incredibly large networks developed at scale. This results in a fintech landscape that is ripe for innovation and it will be increasingly more competitive, as the top 250 fintech unicorns have raised over $73 billion since 2016. Palantir will rely on developing the next wave of AI solutions when it comes to payments, by deploying them for the government to create the core technology and then filtering the solution for the commercial sector.\nConclusion\nPalantir is at the forefront of the digital transformation underway as its platform is the connective tissue for modern organizations to generate insights from many sources of information. In regard to payments and fintech, Palantir has deep roots that link back to the early days of PayPal as Palantir's targeted the large financial institutions since the early 2010s. Palantir continues to expand its platform to apply its deep data insights to information within decentralized finance applications like smart contracts. Palantir's well-positioned to leverage its platform to connect the data from these blockchain applications and with its AI expertise to enable its customers to offer innovative fintech solutions.\nI've been bullish on Palantir over the past year and trading below $20, Palantir represents an attractive price for long-term investors given that Palantir is a generational company and has strong ties to PayPal's early days. I rate Palantir a strong buy at $20.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608719720,"gmtCreate":1638789183749,"gmtModify":1638789185420,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554796455509367","authorIdStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608719720","repostId":"2188243825","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2188243825","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1638789106,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188243825?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 19:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla seeks court approval of win in engineer's defamation case","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188243825","media":"Reuters","summary":"Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc has asked a U.S. court to affirm an arbitrator's recent decision dismiss","content":"<p>Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc has asked a U.S. court to affirm an arbitrator's recent decision dismissing a former engineer's claims that the automaker fired and defamed her for raising concerns about defective floormats and contracting practices.</p>\n<p>In a petition filed in San Francisco federal court on Thursday, Tesla said an arbitrator in a Nov. 3 decision found Cristina Balan's claims that the company falsely accused her of criminal conduct in response to a 2017 Huffington Post article about her firing were untimely.</p>\n<p>In March, a California-based appeals court ruled that Balan was required to arbitrate the defamation claims because they were directly related to her employment with Tesla.</p>\n<p>The company on Thursday asked the court to confirm the arbitrator's decision, which opens the door for Balan to challenge it.</p>\n<p>Balan said in an email on Friday that she would seek to vacate the arbitration award \"due to fraud, corruption, bias ... and manifest disregard for the law.\"</p>\n<p>In a 2019 lawsuit, Balan said she was fired shortly after sending an email to Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk claiming contracts were being awarded based on friendships regardless of price or quality.</p>\n<p>Balan had also raised concerns about floormats in Tesla's Model S curling up under the pedals.</p>\n<p>In a statement provided to the Huffington Post about Balan's case, Tesla claimed she was fired for using company time to work on a personal project and illegally recording conversations with colleagues.</p>\n<p>Tesla had lauded Balan's work prior to her firing, including crediting her with perfecting a design for a battery pack, according to court filings.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla seeks court approval of win in engineer's defamation case</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla seeks court approval of win in engineer's defamation case\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-06 19:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc has asked a U.S. court to affirm an arbitrator's recent decision dismissing a former engineer's claims that the automaker fired and defamed her for raising concerns about defective floormats and contracting practices.</p>\n<p>In a petition filed in San Francisco federal court on Thursday, Tesla said an arbitrator in a Nov. 3 decision found Cristina Balan's claims that the company falsely accused her of criminal conduct in response to a 2017 Huffington Post article about her firing were untimely.</p>\n<p>In March, a California-based appeals court ruled that Balan was required to arbitrate the defamation claims because they were directly related to her employment with Tesla.</p>\n<p>The company on Thursday asked the court to confirm the arbitrator's decision, which opens the door for Balan to challenge it.</p>\n<p>Balan said in an email on Friday that she would seek to vacate the arbitration award \"due to fraud, corruption, bias ... and manifest disregard for the law.\"</p>\n<p>In a 2019 lawsuit, Balan said she was fired shortly after sending an email to Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk claiming contracts were being awarded based on friendships regardless of price or quality.</p>\n<p>Balan had also raised concerns about floormats in Tesla's Model S curling up under the pedals.</p>\n<p>In a statement provided to the Huffington Post about Balan's case, Tesla claimed she was fired for using company time to work on a personal project and illegally recording conversations with colleagues.</p>\n<p>Tesla had lauded Balan's work prior to her firing, including crediting her with perfecting a design for a battery pack, according to court filings.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188243825","content_text":"Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc has asked a U.S. court to affirm an arbitrator's recent decision dismissing a former engineer's claims that the automaker fired and defamed her for raising concerns about defective floormats and contracting practices.\nIn a petition filed in San Francisco federal court on Thursday, Tesla said an arbitrator in a Nov. 3 decision found Cristina Balan's claims that the company falsely accused her of criminal conduct in response to a 2017 Huffington Post article about her firing were untimely.\nIn March, a California-based appeals court ruled that Balan was required to arbitrate the defamation claims because they were directly related to her employment with Tesla.\nThe company on Thursday asked the court to confirm the arbitrator's decision, which opens the door for Balan to challenge it.\nBalan said in an email on Friday that she would seek to vacate the arbitration award \"due to fraud, corruption, bias ... and manifest disregard for the law.\"\nIn a 2019 lawsuit, Balan said she was fired shortly after sending an email to Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk claiming contracts were being awarded based on friendships regardless of price or quality.\nBalan had also raised concerns about floormats in Tesla's Model S curling up under the pedals.\nIn a statement provided to the Huffington Post about Balan's case, Tesla claimed she was fired for using company time to work on a personal project and illegally recording conversations with colleagues.\nTesla had lauded Balan's work prior to her firing, including crediting her with perfecting a design for a battery pack, according to court filings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699897633,"gmtCreate":1639770671279,"gmtModify":1639777821085,"author":{"id":"3554796455509367","authorId":"3554796455509367","name":"chanelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b3261c65a672af17406c690187863a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554796455509367","authorIdStr":"3554796455509367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hello how is every doing","listText":"hello how is every doing","text":"hello how is every doing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699897633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
