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20:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股涨势已筋疲力尽？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176253267","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"总而言之，在市场“筋疲力尽”的前提下，美股想要再度刷出新高，可能性无疑已经非常有限了，而在关于通货膨胀的更多更重要信息得到披露之前，波动率恐怕也只能是居高不下。甚至，还有一种市场不愿意看到的局面也可能","content":"<blockquote>\n 总而言之，在市场“筋疲力尽”的前提下，美股想要再度刷出新高，可能性无疑已经非常有限了，而在关于通货膨胀的更多更重要信息得到披露之前，波动率恐怕也只能是居高不下。甚至，还有一种市场不愿意看到的局面也可能会成为现实。具体来说，哪怕通货膨胀率不再继续升高，美联储也会意识到，他们也不可能永远执行每月购债1200亿美元的操作。这也就意味着，缩减总归会在未来某一时刻开始。\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c75a7f67c02c8f9687c367b99460766\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">近期以来，伴随通货膨胀抬升威胁日益强化，美联储会做何反应依然难以判断，投资者渐渐陷于犹豫，使得美股的涨势也开始有进取乏力之感。</p>\n<p>分析师们指出，股市目前其实已经“筋疲力尽”，未来到底会如何发展，还要看联储到底会在未来如何作为。</p>\n<p>虽然目前看，联储依然是打算保持既定的宽松政策，每月继续购入1200亿美元的债券，但是投资者依然对他们改弦更张的可能性感到紧张。投资者心态的日益谨慎，就导致了波动的大幅度窜升，在市场对于未来有了更清晰和全面的认识之前，这样的局面恐怕都将一直保持下去。</p>\n<p>大约半个月前的5月7日，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数双双创下了历史新高，然而遗憾的是，从那之后，大盘就好景不再，两大指数都遭遇了连续两周下跌的打击。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c7516324402abc2398ea0784016bd0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美股整体表现乏善可陈，如果一定要为过去两周的大盘走势归纳出一个关键词，那只能是波动率——这段时间当中，市场的波动大幅度窜升。</p>\n<p>波动窜升的背后，当然是美国通货膨胀全面升温的威胁，投资者很自然就会想到，联储是否还能够按照他们所计划的那样，继续保持其宽松的货币政策。要知道，美股之所以能够在疫情前上涨多年，以及在疫情爆发后迅速筑底并大举反弹，联储政策的支持都扮演了至为关键的角色。</p>\n<p>现在，市场正走到了岔路口，两种可能性标志着两条不同的道路。第一种可能性是，联储逐渐收紧他们之前的宽松立场，并“缩减”每月购债操作的规模，以对抗日益强化的通货膨胀压力。</p>\n<p>另外一种可能性则是，联储还会继续每月购债1200亿美元，继续以宽松货币政策来支持金融市场。</p>\n<p>在最开始，联储官员们本身，无疑也是最青睐后一条路径的。他们之所以敢于做出这样的选择，是因为他们相信，当下通货膨胀压力的高企只是暂时性的，而伴随2021年逐渐展开，压力也将逐渐退散。</p>\n<p>然而，面对如此巨大的变数，投资者却很难轻易认定一个答案，而他们情绪的变化就使得股价实际运动当中的波动大幅度窜升。从下面的图表当中就可以清楚地看出，进入5月以来，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）陡然拔起，结束了之前的低迷走势。</p>\n<p>虽然最近一两周以来，VIX再度趋向相对平缓，但是因为投资者对于联储未来可能的政策反应依然无法确定，这平缓的前提便是，整体高度较之5月之前有了明显的提升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1af0039086fc6f949d512cf5d1f526\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>骏利的奥康纳（Paul O’Connor）坦率地概括道：“本周的故事就是，市场已经筋疲力尽。股票在持续失掉动能，市场那些投机性色彩浓烈的领域在持续失掉动能。“</p>\n<p>在这种情况下，大盘自然也就难以上行，而只剩下了窄幅振荡。</p>\n<p>上周最开始的时候，伴随通货膨胀压力和比特币价格暴跌引起了投资者的全面担忧，美股遭遇暴跌，到了周三，来自联储的消息显示，美国央行并不打算在短期内改变他们支持金融市场的宽松政策，市场才在周四有所反弹，但是周五旋即再度转向下行。本周第一个交易日，美股又小幅上涨，振荡走势彰显无遗。</p>\n<p>正如奥康纳所说：“股市的每日波动，其实正说明面对着经济反弹……成长型股票、虚拟货币和其他资产的浓烈的泡沫气息，市场已经筋疲力尽。”</p>\n<p>市场最希望看到的场景是，经济增长年速度超过3.0%，而通货膨胀率则降低到2.0%以下，这样货币政策就有了巨大的容错空间，让联储可以安心地继续保持他们的宽松立场。</p>\n<p>更加不必说，如果未来不发生其他的变故，比如不发生债券违约，以及美元汇率还将停止下滑的话，投资者就会更加兴高采烈。</p>\n<p>遗憾的是，这样的愿景难逃一厢情愿的嫌疑，它是否能够成为现实，依然是一个巨大的问号。</p>\n<p>目前看来，只要情况允许，联储还是会愿意继续保持他们既定的宽松货币政策的。只不过，投资者唯有等待，才能确定通货膨胀是否会持续抬头，因为联储未来的实际行动到底会是怎样，归根结底是取决于这一点。</p>\n<p>此外，还有其他的一些关键问号也只能等待时间将其最后一一打开。比如说，拜登政府推动庞大财政预算的努力，到底是否能够在两党高度对立的国会得到通过？</p>\n<p>总而言之，在市场“筋疲力尽”的前提下，指数想要再度刷出新高，可能性无疑已经非常有限了，而在关于通货膨胀的更多更重要信息得到披露之前，波动率恐怕也只能是居高不下。</p>\n<p>甚至，还有一种市场不愿意看到的局面也可能会成为现实。具体来说，哪怕通货膨胀率不再继续升高，联储也会意识到，他们也不可能永远执行每月购债1200亿美元的操作。这也就意味着，缩减总归会在未来某一时刻开始。</p>\n<p>不过，看上去联储似乎只在意眼下，只希望尽可能宽松。归根结底，鲍威尔和其同事们与过去的其他联储官员一样，他们可不想作为导致下一场大衰退，甚至大萧条的罪魁祸首被记入史册。显然，鲍威尔的打算就是，如果非要犯错，那也要犯过于宽松的错，而不是相反。可是，在这样的操作之下，经济错位的问题只能变得越来越严重。</p>\n<p>在这样的背景下，投资者必须时刻保持高度警觉，一旦发现情况不对，就迅速采取行动。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股涨势已筋疲力尽？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股涨势已筋疲力尽？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-25 20:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oCkn1sdCN10SIW7JSvD9nw><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>总而言之，在市场“筋疲力尽”的前提下，美股想要再度刷出新高，可能性无疑已经非常有限了，而在关于通货膨胀的更多更重要信息得到披露之前，波动率恐怕也只能是居高不下。甚至，还有一种市场不愿意看到的局面也可能会成为现实。具体来说，哪怕通货膨胀率不再继续升高，美联储也会意识到，他们也不可能永远执行每月购债1200亿美元的操作。这也就意味着，缩减总归会在未来某一时刻开始。\n\n近期以来，伴随通货膨胀抬升威胁日益...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oCkn1sdCN10SIW7JSvD9nw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oCkn1sdCN10SIW7JSvD9nw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176253267","content_text":"总而言之，在市场“筋疲力尽”的前提下，美股想要再度刷出新高，可能性无疑已经非常有限了，而在关于通货膨胀的更多更重要信息得到披露之前，波动率恐怕也只能是居高不下。甚至，还有一种市场不愿意看到的局面也可能会成为现实。具体来说，哪怕通货膨胀率不再继续升高，美联储也会意识到，他们也不可能永远执行每月购债1200亿美元的操作。这也就意味着，缩减总归会在未来某一时刻开始。\n\n近期以来，伴随通货膨胀抬升威胁日益强化，美联储会做何反应依然难以判断，投资者渐渐陷于犹豫，使得美股的涨势也开始有进取乏力之感。\n分析师们指出，股市目前其实已经“筋疲力尽”，未来到底会如何发展，还要看联储到底会在未来如何作为。\n虽然目前看，联储依然是打算保持既定的宽松政策，每月继续购入1200亿美元的债券，但是投资者依然对他们改弦更张的可能性感到紧张。投资者心态的日益谨慎，就导致了波动的大幅度窜升，在市场对于未来有了更清晰和全面的认识之前，这样的局面恐怕都将一直保持下去。\n大约半个月前的5月7日，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数双双创下了历史新高，然而遗憾的是，从那之后，大盘就好景不再，两大指数都遭遇了连续两周下跌的打击。\n美股整体表现乏善可陈，如果一定要为过去两周的大盘走势归纳出一个关键词，那只能是波动率——这段时间当中，市场的波动大幅度窜升。\n波动窜升的背后，当然是美国通货膨胀全面升温的威胁，投资者很自然就会想到，联储是否还能够按照他们所计划的那样，继续保持其宽松的货币政策。要知道，美股之所以能够在疫情前上涨多年，以及在疫情爆发后迅速筑底并大举反弹，联储政策的支持都扮演了至为关键的角色。\n现在，市场正走到了岔路口，两种可能性标志着两条不同的道路。第一种可能性是，联储逐渐收紧他们之前的宽松立场，并“缩减”每月购债操作的规模，以对抗日益强化的通货膨胀压力。\n另外一种可能性则是，联储还会继续每月购债1200亿美元，继续以宽松货币政策来支持金融市场。\n在最开始，联储官员们本身，无疑也是最青睐后一条路径的。他们之所以敢于做出这样的选择，是因为他们相信，当下通货膨胀压力的高企只是暂时性的，而伴随2021年逐渐展开，压力也将逐渐退散。\n然而，面对如此巨大的变数，投资者却很难轻易认定一个答案，而他们情绪的变化就使得股价实际运动当中的波动大幅度窜升。从下面的图表当中就可以清楚地看出，进入5月以来，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）陡然拔起，结束了之前的低迷走势。\n虽然最近一两周以来，VIX再度趋向相对平缓，但是因为投资者对于联储未来可能的政策反应依然无法确定，这平缓的前提便是，整体高度较之5月之前有了明显的提升。\n\n骏利的奥康纳（Paul O’Connor）坦率地概括道：“本周的故事就是，市场已经筋疲力尽。股票在持续失掉动能，市场那些投机性色彩浓烈的领域在持续失掉动能。“\n在这种情况下，大盘自然也就难以上行，而只剩下了窄幅振荡。\n上周最开始的时候，伴随通货膨胀压力和比特币价格暴跌引起了投资者的全面担忧，美股遭遇暴跌，到了周三，来自联储的消息显示，美国央行并不打算在短期内改变他们支持金融市场的宽松政策，市场才在周四有所反弹，但是周五旋即再度转向下行。本周第一个交易日，美股又小幅上涨，振荡走势彰显无遗。\n正如奥康纳所说：“股市的每日波动，其实正说明面对着经济反弹……成长型股票、虚拟货币和其他资产的浓烈的泡沫气息，市场已经筋疲力尽。”\n市场最希望看到的场景是，经济增长年速度超过3.0%，而通货膨胀率则降低到2.0%以下，这样货币政策就有了巨大的容错空间，让联储可以安心地继续保持他们的宽松立场。\n更加不必说，如果未来不发生其他的变故，比如不发生债券违约，以及美元汇率还将停止下滑的话，投资者就会更加兴高采烈。\n遗憾的是，这样的愿景难逃一厢情愿的嫌疑，它是否能够成为现实，依然是一个巨大的问号。\n目前看来，只要情况允许，联储还是会愿意继续保持他们既定的宽松货币政策的。只不过，投资者唯有等待，才能确定通货膨胀是否会持续抬头，因为联储未来的实际行动到底会是怎样，归根结底是取决于这一点。\n此外，还有其他的一些关键问号也只能等待时间将其最后一一打开。比如说，拜登政府推动庞大财政预算的努力，到底是否能够在两党高度对立的国会得到通过？\n总而言之，在市场“筋疲力尽”的前提下，指数想要再度刷出新高，可能性无疑已经非常有限了，而在关于通货膨胀的更多更重要信息得到披露之前，波动率恐怕也只能是居高不下。\n甚至，还有一种市场不愿意看到的局面也可能会成为现实。具体来说，哪怕通货膨胀率不再继续升高，联储也会意识到，他们也不可能永远执行每月购债1200亿美元的操作。这也就意味着，缩减总归会在未来某一时刻开始。\n不过，看上去联储似乎只在意眼下，只希望尽可能宽松。归根结底，鲍威尔和其同事们与过去的其他联储官员一样，他们可不想作为导致下一场大衰退，甚至大萧条的罪魁祸首被记入史册。显然，鲍威尔的打算就是，如果非要犯错，那也要犯过于宽松的错，而不是相反。可是，在这样的操作之下，经济错位的问题只能变得越来越严重。\n在这样的背景下，投资者必须时刻保持高度警觉，一旦发现情况不对，就迅速采取行动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194639364,"gmtCreate":1621374499958,"gmtModify":1634192135039,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住] 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[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195501859","repostId":"2136995286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198251481,"gmtCreate":1620964046943,"gmtModify":1634194907938,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198251481","repostId":"1148551338","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148551338","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620953344,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148551338?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 08:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148551338","media":"梁中华宏观研究","summary":"海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主","content":"<blockquote>海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。</blockquote><p><b>概要</b></p><p><b>美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力</b>，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速复苏以及汽车芯片短缺有关。此外，美国商品通胀仍高，尤其是耐用品通胀创82年以来新高；如果剔除基数效应，服务通胀已经高于商品通胀。</p><p>由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。</p><p>美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b>美国通胀超预期。</b>4月美国CPI同比上升至4.2%，超市场预期（WIND口径）的3.6%，创08年9月以来新高；此外，CPI环比0.8%，也创12年3月以来新高。剔除食品和能源影响后，4月美国核心CPI同比上升至3.0%，超市场预期的2.3%，创95年4月以来新高。</p><p><b>从分项来看，4月CPI的主要推动力来自能源和交通运输。</b>4月能源CPI 同比上升至25.0%，较上月上升了约12个百分点；4月交通运输CPI 同比上升至14.8% ，也较上月上升了约9 个百分点，二者在CPI 构成中的权重超过20% 。<b>能源和交通运输大幅上升，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速恢复以及汽车芯片短缺有关。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc561a97e814c24d684fa980f9beeb2f\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9656c5df265dc827276ab643b4f9e0f\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>从结构来看，商品通胀仍是主要驱动力，服务通胀也在稳步上升。</b>4 月商品通胀由上月的4.1% 上行至6.7% ，4 月服务通胀也由上月的1.8% 上行至2.6% ，其中，耐用品通胀再度飙升至7.3% ，创82 年以来新高。</p><p><b>如果剔除基数效应，</b>4 月商品通胀为2.0% （较19 年同期年化平均增速），而服务通胀为仍高达2.3% ，耐用品通胀则为3.3% （除今年外，仍是95 年以来高点）。<b>此外，需要强调的是，即使剔除食品和能源以及基数效应，核心商品和核心服务均在上行趋势中。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd4a8facf6d94bd1bd5d0e23aa4d848c\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>往前看，</b>由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，<b>所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。</b></p><p><b>美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/764862979516bbf673b3a2ecb8eeff11\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">本文作者：梁中华、李俊，来源：海通宏观，原文标题：《美国5月CPI或突破6%——美国4月物价数据点评》</p>","source":"lzhhgyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 08:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CBaL5FnI_tcrRiwRUD3-tA><strong>梁中华宏观研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速复苏以及汽车芯片短缺有关。此外，美国商品通胀仍高，尤其是耐用品通胀创82年以来新高；如果剔除基数效应，服务通胀已经高于商品通胀。由于高额财政补贴，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CBaL5FnI_tcrRiwRUD3-tA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CBaL5FnI_tcrRiwRUD3-tA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148551338","content_text":"海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速复苏以及汽车芯片短缺有关。此外，美国商品通胀仍高，尤其是耐用品通胀创82年以来新高；如果剔除基数效应，服务通胀已经高于商品通胀。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。正文美国通胀超预期。4月美国CPI同比上升至4.2%，超市场预期（WIND口径）的3.6%，创08年9月以来新高；此外，CPI环比0.8%，也创12年3月以来新高。剔除食品和能源影响后，4月美国核心CPI同比上升至3.0%，超市场预期的2.3%，创95年4月以来新高。从分项来看，4月CPI的主要推动力来自能源和交通运输。4月能源CPI 同比上升至25.0%，较上月上升了约12个百分点；4月交通运输CPI 同比上升至14.8% ，也较上月上升了约9 个百分点，二者在CPI 构成中的权重超过20% 。能源和交通运输大幅上升，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速恢复以及汽车芯片短缺有关。从结构来看，商品通胀仍是主要驱动力，服务通胀也在稳步上升。4 月商品通胀由上月的4.1% 上行至6.7% ，4 月服务通胀也由上月的1.8% 上行至2.6% ，其中，耐用品通胀再度飙升至7.3% ，创82 年以来新高。如果剔除基数效应，4 月商品通胀为2.0% （较19 年同期年化平均增速），而服务通胀为仍高达2.3% ，耐用品通胀则为3.3% （除今年外，仍是95 年以来高点）。此外，需要强调的是，即使剔除食品和能源以及基数效应，核心商品和核心服务均在上行趋势中。往前看，由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。本文作者：梁中华、李俊，来源：海通宏观，原文标题：《美国5月CPI或突破6%——美国4月物价数据点评》","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":109257105,"gmtCreate":1619702336407,"gmtModify":1634210606174,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109257105","repostId":"2131309849","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374872688,"gmtCreate":1619441897044,"gmtModify":1634273467088,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374872688","repostId":"1154347413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373509692,"gmtCreate":1618867703716,"gmtModify":1634290351632,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[喷血]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"[喷血]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"[喷血] [喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373509692","repostId":"2128189450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2128189450","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1618845241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2128189450?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-19 23:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储在华尔街大行中埋的一个大雷恐一触即发","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128189450","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根大通是美国最大的银行，也是历史上公认的优质普惠性贷款银行，其在最新的财报中披露了一条引人注目的信息：财报显示，第一季度其存款总额同比上升了24%，较第四季度增长了6%至2.278万亿美元，但银行发","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>是美国最大的银行，也是历史上公认的优质普惠性贷款银行，其在最新的财报中披露了一条引人注目的信息：<b>财报显示，第一季度其存款总额同比上升了24%，较第四季度增长了6%至2.278万亿美元，但银行发放的贷款总额几乎持平，为1.011万亿美元，还比一年前下降了4%</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/087ef04a-37a9-4c28-a418-53242821fd83.jpg\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>换句话说，在摩根大通历史上，存款首次超过贷款，或者反过来说，贷存比在疫情后大幅下降后，连续三季度下降到50%以下。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/78e17c6c-c0bf-47aa-98f1-4ec84cbc03ca.jpg\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>更惊人的存款和贷款总额差出现在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>，1.88万亿美元的存款同样创下历史新高，而银行贷款继续以惊人的去杠杆化步伐萎缩,&nbsp;目前为9110亿美元，低于其金融危机期间水平。<b>换句话说，美国银行的贷款已经连续12年保持零增长。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/78e95d2f-2833-4c3e-a01f-09668059020a.png\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>也面临同样的境况。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/21079aa9-2984-400b-b04b-f39d1ed88d6b.png\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"726\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/231f26c8-adc3-495c-8d53-9f5934c7be78.png\" tg-width=\"1250\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>最后，综合四大银行的数据显示出了一个惊人的结果：<b>自全球金融危机以来，它们的贷款没有增长，而存款总额却翻了一番！</b></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/a385dfa1-2f62-45af-9cac-3ef517ad62ca.png\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>我们从急剧下降的贷存比中可以得出两大启示。</b></p><p>首先，这个比率衡量的是一家银行放贷量与其放贷能力的比较。</p><p>第二点，也是更深刻的一点，可以说是现代部分准备金银行制度中最根本的问题：贷款和存款哪个先出现？换句话说，是私人商业银行通过先放贷创造流通中的货币，还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>负责创造货币？</p><p>美国银行体系中存款远远超过贷款，这是一个问题，因为大多数传统的货币主义者会辩称，贷款总是优先的，只有这样，银行才能接收存款。</p><p>但是最近的贷款和存款数据意味着，通过贷款创造存款的传统过程将被彻底打破。</p><p>下面的图表还显示了商业银行贷款和存款的历史变化。明显的是，贷款和存款在过去大部分时间里的走势趋同，但自从雷曼破产以来，贷款几乎陷入停滞，而存款已经上升到10万亿美元。</p><p>值得注意的是，<b>两者之间的差值几乎恰恰是自雷曼危机以来美联储注入的准备金总额</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/7617c650-20cb-4d72-bbed-7f3bdd7bec0e.png\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>那么这意味着什么呢？</p><p>也就是说，<b>在未来美联储逐渐减少量化宽松和存款放缓的背景下，银行将别无选择，只能发放贷款以抵消美联储外部资金注入的缺乏</b>。最重要的是，<b>一旦银行开始大规模放贷，美联储在过去5年所埋下的通胀暗雷才会爆发</b>。</p><p>这也解释了为什么此前即使美联储向银行注入数万亿外汇储备，并通过存款转换在银行的资产负债表上，M2货币的流通速度依然跌至空前低点。</p><p>因为贷款需求远远不足以抵消美联储被迫创造的存款，而这些存款最终不会出现在经济领域，而是出现在资本市场，导致广泛的通缩被资产价格的恶性通胀所掩盖。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/0bc23390-1817-4c2a-b2b0-f9377f5adeb6.png\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>摩根大通策略师Nick Panigirtzoglou在报告中写道：</p><blockquote>“上周美国银行业绩报告的一个共同特征是贷款增长疲软。事实上，美联储发布的每周H8数据显示，美国银行放贷速度仍处于负值，这种持续疲软是在病毒危机爆发后，即2020年第二季度银行放贷短暂飙升之后出现的。<b>这让人想起了雷曼危机后美国银行放贷的轨迹——在企业和消费者利用银行信贷额度的推动下，美国银行放贷速度一度短暂飙升，但直到2011年年中，美国银行放贷速度基本保持在负增长。尽管在2011年之后进入了正区间，但美国银行放贷速度一直远低于雷曼危机前的水平，这是长期停滞的一个重要特征</b><b>。</b>”</blockquote><p>小摩强调，银行贷款的未来轨迹对于决定长期的通胀和流动性状况至关重要。的确，下图显示，货币创造已经从2020年上半年的狂热速度降温。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/70116d90-8b76-48f2-9372-c2e544806ade.png\" tg-width=\"526\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>小摩展望，美联储将在2022年或任何时候缩减购债规模。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/529759e6-2b10-4c4f-8449-9a558b783af3.png\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>这可能会导致未来几年货币创造进一步放缓，除非银行放贷有所改善，避免出现后雷曼时期的长期疲软。</p><p>摩根大通得出的结论是：雷曼破产后银行放贷的长期疲弱状况是否会在当前疫情后的周期中重演，将是决定长期通胀和流动性状况的关键因素。到目前为止，银行放贷的轨迹与雷曼危机后时期的相似点多于差异点。</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储在华尔街大行中埋的一个大雷恐一触即发</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储在华尔街大行中埋的一个大雷恐一触即发\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-19 23:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73367&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根大通是美国最大的银行，也是历史上公认的优质普惠性贷款银行，其在最新的财报中披露了一条引人注目的信息：财报显示，第一季度其存款总额同比上升了24%，较第四季度增长了6%至2.278万亿美元，但银行发放的贷款总额几乎持平，为1.011万亿美元，还比一年前下降了4%。换句话说，在摩根大通历史上，存款首次超过贷款，或者反过来说，贷存比在疫情后大幅下降后，连续三季度下降到50%以下。更惊人的存款和贷款...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73367&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73367&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128189450","content_text":"摩根大通是美国最大的银行，也是历史上公认的优质普惠性贷款银行，其在最新的财报中披露了一条引人注目的信息：财报显示，第一季度其存款总额同比上升了24%，较第四季度增长了6%至2.278万亿美元，但银行发放的贷款总额几乎持平，为1.011万亿美元，还比一年前下降了4%。换句话说，在摩根大通历史上，存款首次超过贷款，或者反过来说，贷存比在疫情后大幅下降后，连续三季度下降到50%以下。更惊人的存款和贷款总额差出现在美国银行，1.88万亿美元的存款同样创下历史新高，而银行贷款继续以惊人的去杠杆化步伐萎缩, 目前为9110亿美元，低于其金融危机期间水平。换句话说，美国银行的贷款已经连续12年保持零增长。花旗和富国银行也面临同样的境况。最后，综合四大银行的数据显示出了一个惊人的结果：自全球金融危机以来，它们的贷款没有增长，而存款总额却翻了一番！我们从急剧下降的贷存比中可以得出两大启示。首先，这个比率衡量的是一家银行放贷量与其放贷能力的比较。第二点，也是更深刻的一点，可以说是现代部分准备金银行制度中最根本的问题：贷款和存款哪个先出现？换句话说，是私人商业银行通过先放贷创造流通中的货币，还是中央银行负责创造货币？美国银行体系中存款远远超过贷款，这是一个问题，因为大多数传统的货币主义者会辩称，贷款总是优先的，只有这样，银行才能接收存款。但是最近的贷款和存款数据意味着，通过贷款创造存款的传统过程将被彻底打破。下面的图表还显示了商业银行贷款和存款的历史变化。明显的是，贷款和存款在过去大部分时间里的走势趋同，但自从雷曼破产以来，贷款几乎陷入停滞，而存款已经上升到10万亿美元。值得注意的是，两者之间的差值几乎恰恰是自雷曼危机以来美联储注入的准备金总额。那么这意味着什么呢？也就是说，在未来美联储逐渐减少量化宽松和存款放缓的背景下，银行将别无选择，只能发放贷款以抵消美联储外部资金注入的缺乏。最重要的是，一旦银行开始大规模放贷，美联储在过去5年所埋下的通胀暗雷才会爆发。这也解释了为什么此前即使美联储向银行注入数万亿外汇储备，并通过存款转换在银行的资产负债表上，M2货币的流通速度依然跌至空前低点。因为贷款需求远远不足以抵消美联储被迫创造的存款，而这些存款最终不会出现在经济领域，而是出现在资本市场，导致广泛的通缩被资产价格的恶性通胀所掩盖。摩根大通策略师Nick Panigirtzoglou在报告中写道：“上周美国银行业绩报告的一个共同特征是贷款增长疲软。事实上，美联储发布的每周H8数据显示，美国银行放贷速度仍处于负值，这种持续疲软是在病毒危机爆发后，即2020年第二季度银行放贷短暂飙升之后出现的。这让人想起了雷曼危机后美国银行放贷的轨迹——在企业和消费者利用银行信贷额度的推动下，美国银行放贷速度一度短暂飙升，但直到2011年年中，美国银行放贷速度基本保持在负增长。尽管在2011年之后进入了正区间，但美国银行放贷速度一直远低于雷曼危机前的水平，这是长期停滞的一个重要特征。”小摩强调，银行贷款的未来轨迹对于决定长期的通胀和流动性状况至关重要。的确，下图显示，货币创造已经从2020年上半年的狂热速度降温。小摩展望，美联储将在2022年或任何时候缩减购债规模。这可能会导致未来几年货币创造进一步放缓，除非银行放贷有所改善，避免出现后雷曼时期的长期疲软。摩根大通得出的结论是：雷曼破产后银行放贷的长期疲弱状况是否会在当前疫情后的周期中重演，将是决定长期通胀和流动性状况的关键因素。到目前为止，银行放贷的轨迹与雷曼危机后时期的相似点多于差异点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370676572,"gmtCreate":1618583551396,"gmtModify":1634291922635,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[哇塞]&nbsp;","listText":"[哇塞]&nbsp;","text":"[哇塞]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370676572","repostId":"1198410511","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345307310,"gmtCreate":1618276801430,"gmtModify":1634294012037,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345307310","repostId":"2127953830","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342082434,"gmtCreate":1618128627828,"gmtModify":1634294762642,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342082434","repostId":"1145816571","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145816571","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618016831,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145816571?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-10 09:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"罚款182.28亿！市场监管总局处罚阿里巴巴垄断行为","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145816571","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2020年12月，市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》对$阿里巴巴$集团控股有限公司在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场滥用市场支配地位行为立案调查。根据《反垄断法》第四十七条、第四十九条规定，综合考虑阿里巴巴集团违法行为的性质、程度和持续时间等因素，2021年4月10日，市场监管总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令阿里巴巴集团停止违法行为，并处以其2019年中国境内销售额4557.12亿元4%的罚款，计182.28亿元。","content":"<p>2020年12月，市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>集团控股有限公司（以下简称阿里巴巴集团）在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场滥用市场支配地位行为立案调查。</p><p>市场监管总局成立专案组，在扎实开展前期工作基础上，对阿里巴巴集团进行现场检查，调查询问相关人员，查阅复制有关文件资料，获取大量证据材料；对其他竞争性平台和平台内商家广泛开展调查取证；对本案证据材料进行深入核查和大数据分析；组织专家反复深入开展案件分析论证；多次听取阿里巴巴集团陈述意见，保障其合法权利。本案事实清楚、证据确凿、定性准确、处理恰当、手续完备、程序合法。</p><p>经查，阿里巴巴集团在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。自2015年以来，阿里巴巴集团滥用该市场支配地位，对平台内商家提出“二选一”要求，禁止平台内商家在其他竞争性平台开店或参加促销活动，并借助市场力量、平台规则和数据、算法等技术手段，采取多种奖惩措施保障“二选一”要求执行，维持、增强自身市场力量，获取不正当竞争优势。</p><p>调查表明，<b>阿里巴巴集团实施“二选一”行为排除、限制了中国境内网络零售平台服务市场的竞争，妨碍了商品服务和资源要素自由流通，影响了平台经济创新发展，侵害了平台内商家的合法权益，损害了消费者利益，构成《反垄断法》第十七条第一款第（四）项禁止“没有正当理由，限定交易相对人只能与其进行交易”的滥用市场支配地位行为</b>。</p><p>根据《反垄断法》第四十七条、第四十九条规定，综合考虑阿里巴巴集团违法行为的性质、程度和持续时间等因素，2021年4月10日，市场监管总局依法作出行政处罚决定，<b>责令阿里巴巴集团停止违法行为，并处以其2019年中国境内销售额4557.12亿元4%的罚款，计182.28亿元</b>。同时，按照《行政处罚法》坚持处罚与教育相结合的原则，向阿里巴巴集团发出《行政指导书》，要求其围绕严格落实平台企业主体责任、加强内控合规管理、维护公平竞争、保护平台内商家和消费者合法权益等方面进行全面整改，并连续三年向市场监管总局提交自查合规报告。</p><p>【相关阅读】</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1141772391\" target=\"_blank\">阿里巴巴发布《致客户和公众的一封信》：为商家创造更开放更公平的平台环境</a></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>罚款182.28亿！市场监管总局处罚阿里巴巴垄断行为</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n罚款182.28亿！市场监管总局处罚阿里巴巴垄断行为\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-10 09:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3627208><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2020年12月，市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》对阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（以下简称阿里巴巴集团）在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场滥用市场支配地位行为立案调查。市场监管总局成立专案组，在扎实开展前期工作基础上，对阿里巴巴集团进行现场检查，调查询问相关人员，查阅复制有关文件资料，获取大量证据材料；对其他竞争性平台和平台内商家广泛开展调查取证；对本案证据材料进行深入核查和大数据分析；组织专家反复深入开展...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3627208\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/995418fbbbc235e75883dec898dccaa8","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3627208","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1145816571","content_text":"2020年12月，市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》对阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（以下简称阿里巴巴集团）在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场滥用市场支配地位行为立案调查。市场监管总局成立专案组，在扎实开展前期工作基础上，对阿里巴巴集团进行现场检查，调查询问相关人员，查阅复制有关文件资料，获取大量证据材料；对其他竞争性平台和平台内商家广泛开展调查取证；对本案证据材料进行深入核查和大数据分析；组织专家反复深入开展案件分析论证；多次听取阿里巴巴集团陈述意见，保障其合法权利。本案事实清楚、证据确凿、定性准确、处理恰当、手续完备、程序合法。经查，阿里巴巴集团在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。自2015年以来，阿里巴巴集团滥用该市场支配地位，对平台内商家提出“二选一”要求，禁止平台内商家在其他竞争性平台开店或参加促销活动，并借助市场力量、平台规则和数据、算法等技术手段，采取多种奖惩措施保障“二选一”要求执行，维持、增强自身市场力量，获取不正当竞争优势。调查表明，阿里巴巴集团实施“二选一”行为排除、限制了中国境内网络零售平台服务市场的竞争，妨碍了商品服务和资源要素自由流通，影响了平台经济创新发展，侵害了平台内商家的合法权益，损害了消费者利益，构成《反垄断法》第十七条第一款第（四）项禁止“没有正当理由，限定交易相对人只能与其进行交易”的滥用市场支配地位行为。根据《反垄断法》第四十七条、第四十九条规定，综合考虑阿里巴巴集团违法行为的性质、程度和持续时间等因素，2021年4月10日，市场监管总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令阿里巴巴集团停止违法行为，并处以其2019年中国境内销售额4557.12亿元4%的罚款，计182.28亿元。同时，按照《行政处罚法》坚持处罚与教育相结合的原则，向阿里巴巴集团发出《行政指导书》，要求其围绕严格落实平台企业主体责任、加强内控合规管理、维护公平竞争、保护平台内商家和消费者合法权益等方面进行全面整改，并连续三年向市场监管总局提交自查合规报告。【相关阅读】阿里巴巴发布《致客户和公众的一封信》：为商家创造更开放更公平的平台环境","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346359897,"gmtCreate":1618006157019,"gmtModify":1634295318485,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶] 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[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350409625","repostId":"1187406912","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187406912","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616220437,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187406912?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-20 14:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"知情人士：Coinbase直接上市计划将推迟至4月","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187406912","media":"Odaily星球日报","summary":"据知情人士透露，美国最大加密货币交易所CoinbaseGlobal Inc目前正计划在4月上市。该交易所原本打算在本月直接上市，但计划已经流产。\n美国证券交易委员会（SEC）一直在审查该公司的直接上市","content":"<p>据知情人士透露，美国最大加密货币交易所CoinbaseGlobal Inc目前正计划在4月上市。该交易所原本打算在本月直接上市，但计划已经流产。</p>\n<p>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）一直在审查该公司的直接上市计划，这是传统 IPO的替代方案。</p>\n<p>Coinbase 的一位代表拒绝置评。</p>\n<p>本周，Coinbase的支持者注册接近&nbsp;1.149 亿股（&nbsp;具体为&nbsp;114850769股）股份，以便在上市时进行交易。在直接上市中，投资者可以在一家公司开始交易时就开始出售所持股份，而不是等到锁定期（通常在 IPO 中长达 6 个月）到期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9552517d8dda56344bcd969453e4ed\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"84\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>根据周三的一份监管文件，包括 Andreessen Horowitz 和 Union Square Ventures 在内的投资公司的股票可以交易。Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 和 Coinbase 联合创始人 Fred Ehrsam 也进行了股票注册登记。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85e035142127fb15a7de28015ae018a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>文件显示，今年在私人交易中，Coinbase 股份价格已易手至200 美元 -375.01 美元。从 1 月到 3 月 15 日的交易量加权平均每股价格为 343.58 美元。基于截至周一的发行股份总数，这将使 Coinbase 的公开市场估值约为 676 亿美元。完全摊薄价值（包括员工激励计划和限制性股票单位）将大大提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d8ebf6a16fa8d730acba4ea0a269b02\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>其上市计划将是第一次在纳斯达克进行的大型直接上市。此前所有此类上市都是在纽约证券交易所进行的，包括本月上市的 Spotify Technology SA、Slack Technologies Inc、Asana Inc、Palantir Technologies Inc 和 Roblox Corp.。</p>\n<p>Coinbase 的最新财务报表显示，该公司正在赚钱，这使其在公开上市时与许多其他初创公司不同。Coinbase 去年从亏损转为盈利 3.22 亿美元，净收入翻了一番多，达到 11.4 亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ecccae1f09108b2df1adf2609f0869\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1578652070608","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>知情人士：Coinbase直接上市计划将推迟至4月</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n知情人士：Coinbase直接上市计划将推迟至4月\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-20 14:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://odaily.com/post/5165920><strong>Odaily星球日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据知情人士透露，美国最大加密货币交易所CoinbaseGlobal Inc目前正计划在4月上市。该交易所原本打算在本月直接上市，但计划已经流产。\n美国证券交易委员会（SEC）一直在审查该公司的直接上市计划，这是传统 IPO的替代方案。\nCoinbase 的一位代表拒绝置评。\n本周，Coinbase的支持者注册接近 1.149 亿股（ 具体为 114850769股）股份，以便在上市时进行交易。在直接...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://odaily.com/post/5165920\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ef56e2e8e681142447fbfe575d2cfa","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"http://odaily.com/post/5165920","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187406912","content_text":"据知情人士透露，美国最大加密货币交易所CoinbaseGlobal Inc目前正计划在4月上市。该交易所原本打算在本月直接上市，但计划已经流产。\n美国证券交易委员会（SEC）一直在审查该公司的直接上市计划，这是传统 IPO的替代方案。\nCoinbase 的一位代表拒绝置评。\n本周，Coinbase的支持者注册接近 1.149 亿股（ 具体为 114850769股）股份，以便在上市时进行交易。在直接上市中，投资者可以在一家公司开始交易时就开始出售所持股份，而不是等到锁定期（通常在 IPO 中长达 6 个月）到期。\n\n根据周三的一份监管文件，包括 Andreessen Horowitz 和 Union Square Ventures 在内的投资公司的股票可以交易。Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 和 Coinbase 联合创始人 Fred Ehrsam 也进行了股票注册登记。\n\n文件显示，今年在私人交易中，Coinbase 股份价格已易手至200 美元 -375.01 美元。从 1 月到 3 月 15 日的交易量加权平均每股价格为 343.58 美元。基于截至周一的发行股份总数，这将使 Coinbase 的公开市场估值约为 676 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[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349615711","repostId":"1185840581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328340932,"gmtCreate":1615501784326,"gmtModify":1703489982873,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328340932","repostId":"2118989529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118989529","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615465455,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2118989529?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 20:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储无法避开“扭曲操作3.0”，迟早要放大招！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118989529","media":"金十数据","summary":"在2020年下半年，债券收益率维持在历史低位，暗示债券投资者当时的通胀预期还没那么强。通胀预期的转折点出现在今年一月份，一月初10年期美债收益率跃升至1%以上，接着到了二月，5年期美债收益率突破0.5","content":"<p>在2020年下半年，债券收益率维持在历史低位，暗示债券投资者当时的通胀预期还没那么强。通胀预期的转折点出现在今年一月份，一月初10年期美债收益率跃升至1%以上，接着到了二月，5年期美债收益率突破0.50%，给全球投资者敲响了警钟。</p>\n<p>尽管收益率上升波及股市，但美联储似乎仍然很冷静，甚至将收益率上升视为经济向好的信号。2021年2月25日，5年期美债收益率日内跃升25个基点，而美联储的一些官员对此是怎么评论的呢？</p>\n<blockquote>\n 圣路易斯联储主席布拉德：“到目前为止，债券收益率的上升是一个好迹象。”堪萨斯城联储主席埃斯特·乔治：“货币政策并不会立即对长期收益率的上升做出反应。”亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克：“我并不担心收益率的变动。美联储现在不需要对收益率做出反应。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>但事实真的是这样吗？</p>\n<p>实际上，美联储应该能够敏锐地意识到，收益率上升将扼杀刚刚起步的经济复苏。<b>RealInvestmentAdvice的分析师Michael Lebowitz</b>近日发表了文章，回溯了20世纪60年代，为阻止收益率上升和保持复苏势头，美联储所采取的“扭曲操作”，并阐述了行动的理由。</p>\n<p>扭曲操作：“卖短买长”</p>\n<p>我们知道：作为资产定价之锚的长期国债收益率就相当于长期的无风险市场利率，而包括按揭和汽车贷款的贷款利率，实际上与长期利率挂钩。通过买入长期国债，可以压低长期利率，而当长期利率较低时，贷款利率也会随之降低，从而鼓励人们投资高风险资产，推动资产价格上升。而所谓的“扭曲操作”，一部分原理就是基于此。</p>\n<p><b>1961年，为了刺激经济活动，美联储推出了“扭曲操作”（Operation Twist）。</b>当时，美元还与黄金挂钩，限制了美联储的政策选择，降低短期市场利率会使美元贬值，并导致美国的黄金储备大量流失。</p>\n<p>为了刺激经济活动，避免黄金储备流失，美联储设计了这样一个计划：美联储进行类似于量化宽松的长期债券回购操作，但不会大规模印钞，而是通过出售短期债券为购买长期债券提供资金。这样，美联储的资产负债表规模或货币供应量不会改变，因此不会导致美元贬值。</p>\n<p>根据旧金山联储的说法：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 肯尼迪政府提出的方案是降低长期收益率，同时保持短期收益率不变。这一举措现在被称为“扭曲操作”。其理念是，\n <b><u>企业投资和住房需求主要由长期利率决定，而货币套利则主要由国家间的短期利率差异决定。</u></b>政策制定者认为，如果可以在不影响短期收益率的情况下降低长端利率，就可以刺激疲软的经济，而不会加剧黄金外流。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2011年10月，美联储再次启动该政策，开启了“扭曲操作2.0”时代。</b>这段时期与1961年不同，货币制度已经不是金本位制，但美联储的资产负债表规模也大了很多。由于量化宽松政策和金融危机的影响，从2008年到2011年中期，经过两轮量化宽松政策之后，美联储的资产负债表飙升了200%，达到近3万亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/602f894e8403e8bac951bc78595547aa\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过，美联储的短期美国国债储备充足，因此美联储可以将其持有的短期国债卖出，转为更长期的国债，鼓励经济活动。</p>\n<p>美联储是这样说的：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 为了支持更强劲的经济复苏，并帮助确保通胀能在维持就业和物价稳定的基础上温和运行，委员会决定延长所持债券的平均到期日。委员会计划在2012年6月底前购买4000亿美元的剩余期限为6年至30年的国债，并出售等量的剩余期限为3年或以下的国债。该计划将使长端利率承压，使金融环境更加宽松。\n</blockquote>\n<p>扭曲操作3.0：为什么是现在？</p>\n<p>本月初，10年期美债收益率突破1.50%，美联储理事布雷纳德随即表示：“我担心，如果金融环境出现无序或持续收紧，可能会减缓我们实现目标的进程。”</p>\n<p>而这和2011年美联储的声明如出一辙：“这项计划（扭曲操作）应该会给长期利率带来下行压力，并有助于使金融环境更加宽松。”</p>\n<p>收益率上升会导致“金融状况收紧”，不利于经济发展。尽管一些美联储成员对此漠不关心，但布雷纳德理解这个问题。她知道，更高的利率会让一切都变糟，让经济复苏变得艰难。</p>\n<p>旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利也站在了布雷纳德这边。她表示：“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>可以改变购买债券的期限，甚至像以前那样，在所谓的“扭转操作”中出售短期证券来购买长期政府债券。”</p>\n<p>随着收益率的上升，出现扭曲操作3.0的几率增加。这种扭转可以不用加息，也不会改变目前每月1200亿美元的量化宽松步伐。另一种选择则是增加量化宽松的规模，但可能会导致收益率因通胀影响而进一步攀升。</p>\n<p>也就是说，这种扭曲操作可以在不造成显著负面影响的情况下控制市场利率。</p>\n<p>扭曲操作如何影响大类资产?</p>\n<p>回顾扭曲操作2.0时期各种资产类别的表现，我们可以评估这一行动的效果，这样的分析为我们了解这些资产类别在今天的表现提供了一些见解。</p>\n<p>下面的前三个图表分别是2年期和10年期国债收益率以及2年期与10年期国债收益率利差曲线。在这些图表中，扭曲操作的周期用灰色突出显示，绿色的线显示了在扭曲操作中收益率的百分比变化。</p>\n<p>此外，利差曲线图突出表明，当将2011年7月传言的扭转期延长至结束时，曲线变平了124个基点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82383e2b1644c44f8280611265d88579\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d506e5d2e433a3110d9b29474f172398\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c17f83e2a45918a79c3124beaedcab\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>下一组图表则是标普500指数、原油和黄金在同一时期的表现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9bf742f97f9a8a8c5178870f900f9c2\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ca837eb31e436dbe33af311c627d1f\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5eaad90605378c52e4f49b9081e34b2\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>最后是标普板块和其他股指在扭曲操作期间和扭曲操作前的表现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a33a167e44c41a053e47e9eb0291716\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>扭转2.0操作完成了美联储的使命。在美联储没有扩大资产负债表的情况下，收益率曲线明显趋平。大部分的曲线趋平都发生在操作实际开始之前，而股市和板块则在扭曲操作实行期间上涨，但在扭曲操作信号放出期间表现平平。值得注意的是，当时经济正在放缓，因此宏观趋势也有助于降低利率。</p>\n<p><b>通常与通胀和利率上升相关的行业，包括金融、能源、材料和工业类股从扭转信号发出之际开始下跌，直到结束。受益于较低利率的行业，如公用事业、技术和主食，在整个期间表现相当不错。</b></p>\n<p>最有趣的是，<u><b>从信号放出到操作结束，债券和股票价格的周相关性为强烈的负相关</b></u>，如下图所示。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48bf28262a082b456f0955ad7cef7d64\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>综上所述，考虑到美联储资产负债表的膨胀程度，收益率上升促使美联储采取“扭曲操作”只是时间问题。不过，2011年，当美联储首次暗示加息时，2年期和10年期国债收益率利差为2.60%，而如今的水平只有当时的一半，为1.35%，因此这种操作的效果可能不如当年。</p>\n<p>现在国债的供给和需求关系和当时也不尽相同。首先，美国政府现在有3万亿美元的赤字，大约是10年前的三倍，抵消债务供应的是美联储每月购买的800亿美元国债，而在2011-12年，由于QE刚结束，美联储的资产负债表并没有增长。此外，在接下来的几个月里，美国国债发行将会暂时减少。</p>\n<p>美联储拥有足够多的资产，足以让收益率曲线显著变平。投资者面临的问题是，其它资产类别将如何应对此类行动？较低的长期利率有可能会缓和股票市场不断上升的紧张局势，也有可能在一定程度上促进经济活动。</p>\n<p>考虑到市场的极端投机性和大规模的财政和货币干预，是要和美联储一样乐观，还是应该担心市场波动?这是需要投资者去思考的问题。</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=71629&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2020年下半年，债券收益率维持在历史低位，暗示债券投资者当时的通胀预期还没那么强。通胀预期的转折点出现在今年一月份，一月初10年期美债收益率跃升至1%以上，接着到了二月，5年期美债收益率突破0.50%，给全球投资者敲响了警钟。\n尽管收益率上升波及股市，但美联储似乎仍然很冷静，甚至将收益率上升视为经济向好的信号。2021年2月25日，5年期美债收益率日内跃升25个基点，而美联储的一些官员对此是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=71629&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=71629&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118989529","content_text":"在2020年下半年，债券收益率维持在历史低位，暗示债券投资者当时的通胀预期还没那么强。通胀预期的转折点出现在今年一月份，一月初10年期美债收益率跃升至1%以上，接着到了二月，5年期美债收益率突破0.50%，给全球投资者敲响了警钟。\n尽管收益率上升波及股市，但美联储似乎仍然很冷静，甚至将收益率上升视为经济向好的信号。2021年2月25日，5年期美债收益率日内跃升25个基点，而美联储的一些官员对此是怎么评论的呢？\n\n 圣路易斯联储主席布拉德：“到目前为止，债券收益率的上升是一个好迹象。”堪萨斯城联储主席埃斯特·乔治：“货币政策并不会立即对长期收益率的上升做出反应。”亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克：“我并不担心收益率的变动。美联储现在不需要对收益率做出反应。”\n\n但事实真的是这样吗？\n实际上，美联储应该能够敏锐地意识到，收益率上升将扼杀刚刚起步的经济复苏。RealInvestmentAdvice的分析师Michael Lebowitz近日发表了文章，回溯了20世纪60年代，为阻止收益率上升和保持复苏势头，美联储所采取的“扭曲操作”，并阐述了行动的理由。\n扭曲操作：“卖短买长”\n我们知道：作为资产定价之锚的长期国债收益率就相当于长期的无风险市场利率，而包括按揭和汽车贷款的贷款利率，实际上与长期利率挂钩。通过买入长期国债，可以压低长期利率，而当长期利率较低时，贷款利率也会随之降低，从而鼓励人们投资高风险资产，推动资产价格上升。而所谓的“扭曲操作”，一部分原理就是基于此。\n1961年，为了刺激经济活动，美联储推出了“扭曲操作”（Operation Twist）。当时，美元还与黄金挂钩，限制了美联储的政策选择，降低短期市场利率会使美元贬值，并导致美国的黄金储备大量流失。\n为了刺激经济活动，避免黄金储备流失，美联储设计了这样一个计划：美联储进行类似于量化宽松的长期债券回购操作，但不会大规模印钞，而是通过出售短期债券为购买长期债券提供资金。这样，美联储的资产负债表规模或货币供应量不会改变，因此不会导致美元贬值。\n根据旧金山联储的说法：\n\n 肯尼迪政府提出的方案是降低长期收益率，同时保持短期收益率不变。这一举措现在被称为“扭曲操作”。其理念是，\n 企业投资和住房需求主要由长期利率决定，而货币套利则主要由国家间的短期利率差异决定。政策制定者认为，如果可以在不影响短期收益率的情况下降低长端利率，就可以刺激疲软的经济，而不会加剧黄金外流。\n\n2011年10月，美联储再次启动该政策，开启了“扭曲操作2.0”时代。这段时期与1961年不同，货币制度已经不是金本位制，但美联储的资产负债表规模也大了很多。由于量化宽松政策和金融危机的影响，从2008年到2011年中期，经过两轮量化宽松政策之后，美联储的资产负债表飙升了200%，达到近3万亿美元。\n\n不过，美联储的短期美国国债储备充足，因此美联储可以将其持有的短期国债卖出，转为更长期的国债，鼓励经济活动。\n美联储是这样说的：\n\n 为了支持更强劲的经济复苏，并帮助确保通胀能在维持就业和物价稳定的基础上温和运行，委员会决定延长所持债券的平均到期日。委员会计划在2012年6月底前购买4000亿美元的剩余期限为6年至30年的国债，并出售等量的剩余期限为3年或以下的国债。该计划将使长端利率承压，使金融环境更加宽松。\n\n扭曲操作3.0：为什么是现在？\n本月初，10年期美债收益率突破1.50%，美联储理事布雷纳德随即表示：“我担心，如果金融环境出现无序或持续收紧，可能会减缓我们实现目标的进程。”\n而这和2011年美联储的声明如出一辙：“这项计划（扭曲操作）应该会给长期利率带来下行压力，并有助于使金融环境更加宽松。”\n收益率上升会导致“金融状况收紧”，不利于经济发展。尽管一些美联储成员对此漠不关心，但布雷纳德理解这个问题。她知道，更高的利率会让一切都变糟，让经济复苏变得艰难。\n旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利也站在了布雷纳德这边。她表示：“中央银行可以改变购买债券的期限，甚至像以前那样，在所谓的“扭转操作”中出售短期证券来购买长期政府债券。”\n随着收益率的上升，出现扭曲操作3.0的几率增加。这种扭转可以不用加息，也不会改变目前每月1200亿美元的量化宽松步伐。另一种选择则是增加量化宽松的规模，但可能会导致收益率因通胀影响而进一步攀升。\n也就是说，这种扭曲操作可以在不造成显著负面影响的情况下控制市场利率。\n扭曲操作如何影响大类资产?\n回顾扭曲操作2.0时期各种资产类别的表现，我们可以评估这一行动的效果，这样的分析为我们了解这些资产类别在今天的表现提供了一些见解。\n下面的前三个图表分别是2年期和10年期国债收益率以及2年期与10年期国债收益率利差曲线。在这些图表中，扭曲操作的周期用灰色突出显示，绿色的线显示了在扭曲操作中收益率的百分比变化。\n此外，利差曲线图突出表明，当将2011年7月传言的扭转期延长至结束时，曲线变平了124个基点。\n\n\n\n下一组图表则是标普500指数、原油和黄金在同一时期的表现。\n\n\n\n最后是标普板块和其他股指在扭曲操作期间和扭曲操作前的表现。\n\n扭转2.0操作完成了美联储的使命。在美联储没有扩大资产负债表的情况下，收益率曲线明显趋平。大部分的曲线趋平都发生在操作实际开始之前，而股市和板块则在扭曲操作实行期间上涨，但在扭曲操作信号放出期间表现平平。值得注意的是，当时经济正在放缓，因此宏观趋势也有助于降低利率。\n通常与通胀和利率上升相关的行业，包括金融、能源、材料和工业类股从扭转信号发出之际开始下跌，直到结束。受益于较低利率的行业，如公用事业、技术和主食，在整个期间表现相当不错。\n最有趣的是，从信号放出到操作结束，债券和股票价格的周相关性为强烈的负相关，如下图所示。\n\n\n综上所述，考虑到美联储资产负债表的膨胀程度，收益率上升促使美联储采取“扭曲操作”只是时间问题。不过，2011年，当美联储首次暗示加息时，2年期和10年期国债收益率利差为2.60%，而如今的水平只有当时的一半，为1.35%，因此这种操作的效果可能不如当年。\n现在国债的供给和需求关系和当时也不尽相同。首先，美国政府现在有3万亿美元的赤字，大约是10年前的三倍，抵消债务供应的是美联储每月购买的800亿美元国债，而在2011-12年，由于QE刚结束，美联储的资产负债表并没有增长。此外，在接下来的几个月里，美国国债发行将会暂时减少。\n美联储拥有足够多的资产，足以让收益率曲线显著变平。投资者面临的问题是，其它资产类别将如何应对此类行动？较低的长期利率有可能会缓和股票市场不断上升的紧张局势，也有可能在一定程度上促进经济活动。\n考虑到市场的极端投机性和大规模的财政和货币干预，是要和美联储一样乐观，还是应该担心市场波动?这是需要投资者去思考的问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374872688,"gmtCreate":1619441897044,"gmtModify":1634273467088,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪] 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