我是鑫鑫的个人主页 - 老虎社区

我是鑫鑫

我是鑫鑫

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IP属地：北京

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3粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2020-11-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@投资小达人:正确的认识投资与投机的核心区别

2020-09-23

$白银主连(SImain)$ 天啊，早上一看就瀑布了

2020-09-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-09

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@陈达美股投资:《价值》读感：长期主义是一种人道主义

2020-09-08

$白银主连(SImain)$ 感觉白银要反转了

2020-09-08

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-08

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-07

$白银主连(SImain)$ 提前满仓真不好，真的应该管住手

2020-09-02

$白银主连(SImain)$ 做多吗，买一手加仓

2020-08-31

$白银主连(SImain)$ 是不是第二波上行开始了

2020-08-28

$白银主连(SImain)$ 又买少了

2020-08-27

$白银主连(SImain)$ 假的吧

又止损了

2020-08-24

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@Ivan_甘灿荣:我们应该在什么时候抄底黄金和白银？

2020-08-19

$白银主连(SImain)$ 感觉狂野的走势又要上演了

2020-08-18

$白银主连(SImain)$ 假

先追为敬

2020-08-12

$白银主连(SImain)$ 谁知道这是什么行情啊

快被玩死了

2020-08-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-08-06

$白银主连(SImain)$ 我在26的高位被套牢了，没想到竟然能回本

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一些套利交易，有些几天或者一个月之类就能完成，却是不错的投资。4，仔细研究公司是投资，不分析公司就是投机。这也没有抓住本质，仔细研究公司发展前景后，以60PE买入乐视，不研究公司以10PE买入50ETF指数基金长期持有。显然前者算不上投资，他的判断前景是主观的，根据市场情绪变化的。而后者可以根据上证50指数收益率高于长期国","text":"投资与投机的概念从来也没有分清楚过，任何从事金融活动的人都应该清楚地知道自己究竟是在投资还是投机，如果是在投机，那也至少要确定自己能够承担投机的后果。因为投资与投机概念的混淆产生了很多问题：许多人自认为是在投资而其实是投机，把投机当做正事来做，而不是消遣，投机投入资金过大，自身无法承担。我们今天就来具体分析投资与投机这个重大的问题，然后来区分究竟哪些是投资，哪些是投机？我们先看一些普遍的市场观点：1，认为买债券，固收产品是投资，而买普通股就是投机，这种看法认为债券，固收产品有条款能保本付息，普通股没得本金安全，股息又不确定，所以是投机。应该说这种看法很危险，2018年，大量的企业债券违约，包括信托，P2P理财也有大量暴雷，先前买入这些安全性极差的所谓债券，固收产品就是彻底的投机行为，而不能否认的是买入一组低估蓝筹龙头股，或者低估指数基金长期看却是一种不错的投资。2，现金交易是投资，融资或者杠杆保证金交易是投机，这种看法认为投资就是现金交易不能上杠杆和融资，但这只是交易的方式和习惯，即使是ST股，退市股也需要现金交易，不能说这就是投资。而一些套利和对冲交易却需要用到一些融券和保证金交易，但是这种操作通过买入一种证券，同时卖出相关证券的操作，套取差价。通过这种交易，把本金安全控制住了，却是一种不错的投资。3，长期持有是投资，短期买卖就是投机，这更不能说明问题，长期持有也可能是被动套牢，比如2015年买入创业板股票，然后被套牢几年，长期持有，不能说这是在投资。而一些套利交易，有些几天或者一个月之类就能完成，却是不错的投资。4，仔细研究公司是投资，不分析公司就是投机。这也没有抓住本质，仔细研究公司发展前景后，以60PE买入乐视，不研究公司以10PE买入50ETF指数基金长期持有。显然前者算不上投资，他的判断前景是主观的，根据市场情绪变化的。而后者可以根据上证50指数收益率高于长期国","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302013337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974963105,"gmtCreate":1600903277007,"gmtModify":1703822915315,"author":{"id":"3553407536458268","authorId":"3553407536458268","name":"我是鑫鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0473a12ba7dbf4f2796811d001a36ee8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553407536458268","authorIdStr":"3553407536458268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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今年是疫情年，除非疫情完全可控，确定不再爆发第三波峰值，那么美联储才有收紧流动性的动机。当前市场普遍预期，美联储会在明年下半年才逐渐收缩流动性，该逻辑与黄金的34个月的长线周期不谋而合。因此黄金跌下来后，看时机抄底是必须的，1700-1800是个十分值得介入的价格区间，如果调整不到这个幅度，可短线交易静待趋势。 白银的短线盘整突破 白银这段时间波动性比黄金大，很适合进行短线交易。短线交易方式有很多，由于单日波幅大（日波幅可达7%），因此大大增加短线可操作性。根据以往在白银身上可以使用2日盘整突破法进行短线下注交易。如图： 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感觉白银要反转了[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976971646","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971117648,"gmtCreate":1598883628684,"gmtModify":1704220442372,"author":{"id":"3553407536458268","authorId":"3553407536458268","name":"我是鑫鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0473a12ba7dbf4f2796811d001a36ee8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553407536458268","authorIdStr":"3553407536458268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连(SImain)$&nbsp;</a>是不是第二波上行开始了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连(SImain)$&nbsp;</a>是不是第二波上行开始了","text":"$白银主连(SImain)$ 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understand is to know what to do.—— 维特根斯坦------------------------------------收到湛庐的抢先版《价值》，囫囵吞枣读完，一是挺过瘾，二是发现，这是一本讲道的书。讲道的书和讲术的书不一样，后者虽然立意不高但总会有些方法论，讲好了，就是所谓干货。而讲道的书高屋建瓴，但容易言之空洞，俗称心灵鸡汤。但幸好《价值》不是一碗纯鸡汤。三个投资哲学，来源：《价值》当然我个人并不排斥讲道。什么叫知识分子？——知识分子就是处理“理念”的人。所以讲道的才能叫知识分子，讲术的讲得再天花乱坠，我们最多称之为砖家。关于投资，讲术的书很多，比如如何看报表啦如何看K线啦云云；讲道的书也不少，但能把投资理念讲得入木三分的，却寥寥无几。关于读书，我不求甚解，一本书能对我有一两个“钉”的一下的小灯泡式启发，就足够了。之于《价值》，我有两个比较大的takeaway可以跟大家分享 ——1. 第一性原理；2. 长期主义。我们来讲一讲。1. 投资的第一性原理 （first-principle thinking）我们许多的知识其实来自于推论，其脆弱如一座沙塔。比如，许多人对于风险的认知，就是波动。这是教科书误国的典范。金融学教科书告诉你，价格波动大的资产风险就大，波动大的资产就要给他高贴现率。于是许多风险偏好低的投资人，错以为权益资产根本就是地雷。因为无法量化幻影无形的风险，我们就只能试图找一个代理——比如标准差——来代表风险。 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