我是鑫鑫的个人主页 - 老虎社区

我是鑫鑫

我是鑫鑫

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IP属地：北京

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2020-11-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@投资小达人:正确的认识投资与投机的核心区别

2020-09-24

$白银主连(SImain)$ 天啊，早上一看就瀑布了

2020-09-20

死而复生吗[微笑]

TikTok将开启Pre-IPO融资，估值近5000亿元

2020-09-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@陈达美股投资:《价值》读感：长期主义是一种人道主义

2020-09-08

$白银主连(SImain)$ 感觉白银要反转了[呆住]

2020-09-08

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-08

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-07

$白银主连(SImain)$ 提前满仓真不好，真的应该管住手[捂脸]

2020-09-02

$白银主连(SImain)$ 做多吗，买一手加仓[呆住]

2020-08-31

$白银主连(SImain)$ 是不是第二波上行开始了

2020-08-28

$白银主连(SImain)$ 又买少了[捂脸]

2020-08-27

$白银主连(SImain)$ 假的吧[捂脸] 又止损了

2020-08-24

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@Ivan_甘灿荣:我们应该在什么时候抄底黄金和白银？

2020-08-19

$白银主连(SImain)$ 感觉狂野的走势又要上演了

2020-08-19

$白银主连(SImain)$ 假[捂脸] 先追为敬

2020-08-12

$白银主连(SImain)$ 谁知道这是什么行情啊[捂脸] 快被玩死了

2020-08-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-08-06

我觉得改成接盘者更好[喷血]

美股十年长牛后，谁能成为接棒者？

2020-08-06

$白银主连(SImain)$ 我在26的高位被套牢了，没想到竟然能回本[财迷]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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一些套利交易，有些几天或者一个月之类就能完成，却是不错的投资。4，仔细研究公司是投资，不分析公司就是投机。这也没有抓住本质，仔细研究公司发展前景后，以60PE买入乐视，不研究公司以10PE买入50ETF指数基金长期持有。显然前者算不上投资，他的判断前景是主观的，根据市场情绪变化的。而后者可以根据上证50指数收益率高于长期国","text":"投资与投机的概念从来也没有分清楚过，任何从事金融活动的人都应该清楚地知道自己究竟是在投资还是投机，如果是在投机，那也至少要确定自己能够承担投机的后果。因为投资与投机概念的混淆产生了很多问题：许多人自认为是在投资而其实是投机，把投机当做正事来做，而不是消遣，投机投入资金过大，自身无法承担。我们今天就来具体分析投资与投机这个重大的问题，然后来区分究竟哪些是投资，哪些是投机？我们先看一些普遍的市场观点：1，认为买债券，固收产品是投资，而买普通股就是投机，这种看法认为债券，固收产品有条款能保本付息，普通股没得本金安全，股息又不确定，所以是投机。应该说这种看法很危险，2018年，大量的企业债券违约，包括信托，P2P理财也有大量暴雷，先前买入这些安全性极差的所谓债券，固收产品就是彻底的投机行为，而不能否认的是买入一组低估蓝筹龙头股，或者低估指数基金长期看却是一种不错的投资。2，现金交易是投资，融资或者杠杆保证金交易是投机，这种看法认为投资就是现金交易不能上杠杆和融资，但这只是交易的方式和习惯，即使是ST股，退市股也需要现金交易，不能说这就是投资。而一些套利和对冲交易却需要用到一些融券和保证金交易，但是这种操作通过买入一种证券，同时卖出相关证券的操作，套取差价。通过这种交易，把本金安全控制住了，却是一种不错的投资。3，长期持有是投资，短期买卖就是投机，这更不能说明问题，长期持有也可能是被动套牢，比如2015年买入创业板股票，然后被套牢几年，长期持有，不能说这是在投资。而一些套利交易，有些几天或者一个月之类就能完成，却是不错的投资。4，仔细研究公司是投资，不分析公司就是投机。这也没有抓住本质，仔细研究公司发展前景后，以60PE买入乐视，不研究公司以10PE买入50ETF指数基金长期持有。显然前者算不上投资，他的判断前景是主观的，根据市场情绪变化的。而后者可以根据上证50指数收益率高于长期国","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302013337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974963105,"gmtCreate":1600903277007,"gmtModify":1703822915315,"author":{"id":"3553407536458268","authorId":"3553407536458268","name":"我是鑫鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0473a12ba7dbf4f2796811d001a36ee8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553407536458268","authorIdStr":"3553407536458268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连(SImain)$&nbsp;</a>天啊，早上一看就瀑布了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连(SImain)$&nbsp;</a>天啊，早上一看就瀑布了","text":"$白银主连(SImain)$ 天啊，早上一看就瀑布了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974963105","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485328831803673","authorId":"3485328831803673","name":"小小飞蟹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3485328831803673","authorIdStr":"3485328831803673"},"content":"下跌趋势已经形成，要么阴跌，要么暴跌。暴跌还有反弹需求，阴跌只能一句下跌了","text":"下跌趋势已经形成，要么阴跌，要么暴跌。暴跌还有反弹需求，阴跌只能一句下跌了","html":"下跌趋势已经形成，要么阴跌，要么暴跌。暴跌还有反弹需求，阴跌只能一句下跌了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975892926,"gmtCreate":1600610302165,"gmtModify":1703821913313,"author":{"id":"3553407536458268","authorId":"3553407536458268","name":"我是鑫鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0473a12ba7dbf4f2796811d001a36ee8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553407536458268","authorIdStr":"3553407536458268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"死而复生吗[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"死而复生吗[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"死而复生吗[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975892926","repostId":"1185629853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185629853","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1600564530,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185629853?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-20 09:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TikTok将开启Pre-IPO融资，估值近5000亿元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185629853","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"TikTok近期将开启一轮Pre-IPO融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将在此轮融资共计投资近1000亿元 （约125亿美元）。 该轮融资完成后，TikTok的投后估值将达到近5000亿元（约625亿美元），同时","content":"<p>TikTok近期将开启一轮Pre-IPO融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将在此轮融资共计投资近1000亿元 （约125亿美元）。 该轮融资完成后，TikTok的投后估值将达到近5000亿元（约625亿美元），同时，字节跳动将继续掌握TikTok的控制权，甲骨文和沃尔玛则会分别获得TikTok12.5%和7.5%的股份。(36氪)</p><p><b>TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层</b></p><p>TikTok20日发表声明，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛就“云上加州”方案达成原则性共识。根据提案，TikTok的总部会继续留在美国，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴，该方案不涉及技术及算法转让。在字节跳动的控制下，TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层。TikTok同期会开启新一轮不超过20%比例的融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将会作为具有优先购买权的潜在投资方被引入。</p><p><b>报道称TikTok将在美国设立50亿美元教育基金 字节跳动澄清</b></p><p>字节跳动表示，有媒体报道称，TikTok将在美国设立一个50亿美元的教育基金。 特此澄清，我们也是从新闻中第一次听说50亿美金的教育基金。公司一直致力于教育领域的投入，也计划和合作伙伴、全球股东一起为全球的学生启动基于AI和视频技术的在线课堂项目。</p><p>9月20日早间，字节跳动发布声明称，为了确保1亿美国人能够继续使用TikTok这款高人气的视频及内容应用软件，满足美国政府监管要求，加强TikTok美国业务，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛对TikTok的合作形成原则性共识。三方将按照此共识，尽快达成满足美国和中国法律要求的合作协议。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484ce6b93a1743db6e708423d492af59\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"821\">当天，据环球网报道，美国总统特朗告诉媒体记者，他批准了甲骨文与TikTok的合作协议。“这笔交易得到了我的祝福”，特朗普说，“我在理论上已经批准了交易”。</p><p>据报道，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴。双方将开展类似苹果在中国由“云上贵州”进行的数据安全合规合作。由于TikTok美国业务在加州洛杉矶设有办公室，该方案也被称为“云上加州”。根据业务发展需要，TikTok将继续把美国作为总部，TikTok团队也将持续扩充，新增2.5万个工作岗位。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TikTok将开启Pre-IPO融资，估值近5000亿元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTikTok将开启Pre-IPO融资，估值近5000亿元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-20 09:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TikTok近期将开启一轮Pre-IPO融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将在此轮融资共计投资近1000亿元 （约125亿美元）。 该轮融资完成后，TikTok的投后估值将达到近5000亿元（约625亿美元），同时，字节跳动将继续掌握TikTok的控制权，甲骨文和沃尔玛则会分别获得TikTok12.5%和7.5%的股份。(36氪)</p><p><b>TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层</b></p><p>TikTok20日发表声明，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛就“云上加州”方案达成原则性共识。根据提案，TikTok的总部会继续留在美国，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴，该方案不涉及技术及算法转让。在字节跳动的控制下，TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层。TikTok同期会开启新一轮不超过20%比例的融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将会作为具有优先购买权的潜在投资方被引入。</p><p><b>报道称TikTok将在美国设立50亿美元教育基金 字节跳动澄清</b></p><p>字节跳动表示，有媒体报道称，TikTok将在美国设立一个50亿美元的教育基金。 特此澄清，我们也是从新闻中第一次听说50亿美金的教育基金。公司一直致力于教育领域的投入，也计划和合作伙伴、全球股东一起为全球的学生启动基于AI和视频技术的在线课堂项目。</p><p>9月20日早间，字节跳动发布声明称，为了确保1亿美国人能够继续使用TikTok这款高人气的视频及内容应用软件，满足美国政府监管要求，加强TikTok美国业务，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛对TikTok的合作形成原则性共识。三方将按照此共识，尽快达成满足美国和中国法律要求的合作协议。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484ce6b93a1743db6e708423d492af59\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"821\">当天，据环球网报道，美国总统特朗告诉媒体记者，他批准了甲骨文与TikTok的合作协议。“这笔交易得到了我的祝福”，特朗普说，“我在理论上已经批准了交易”。</p><p>据报道，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴。双方将开展类似苹果在中国由“云上贵州”进行的数据安全合规合作。由于TikTok美国业务在加州洛杉矶设有办公室，该方案也被称为“云上加州”。根据业务发展需要，TikTok将继续把美国作为总部，TikTok团队也将持续扩充，新增2.5万个工作岗位。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6956fc800ccc510ede7a2b4dfb9413f7","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185629853","content_text":"TikTok近期将开启一轮Pre-IPO融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将在此轮融资共计投资近1000亿元 （约125亿美元）。 该轮融资完成后，TikTok的投后估值将达到近5000亿元（约625亿美元），同时，字节跳动将继续掌握TikTok的控制权，甲骨文和沃尔玛则会分别获得TikTok12.5%和7.5%的股份。(36氪)TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层TikTok20日发表声明，字节跳动、甲骨文、沃尔玛就“云上加州”方案达成原则性共识。根据提案，TikTok的总部会继续留在美国，甲骨文将成为TikTok在数据安全合规方面的合作伙伴，该方案不涉及技术及算法转让。在字节跳动的控制下，TikTok将组建新的董事会和管理层。TikTok同期会开启新一轮不超过20%比例的融资，甲骨文和沃尔玛将会作为具有优先购买权的潜在投资方被引入。报道称TikTok将在美国设立50亿美元教育基金 字节跳动澄清字节跳动表示，有媒体报道称，TikTok将在美国设立一个50亿美元的教育基金。 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15:17","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美股十年长牛后，谁能成为接棒者？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180846696","media":"Wind万得","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，国际宏观环境一直在不停演变，催生了不同时代不同投资主题，纵观历史，上世纪70年代是“黄金”十年，80年代日经指数一骑绝尘，90年代纳斯达克指数涨出了互联网泡沫，进入千禧年石油迎来一","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道，国际宏观环境一直在不停演变，催生了不同时代不同投资主题，纵观历史，上世纪70年代是“黄金”十年，80年代日经指数一骑绝尘，90年代纳斯达克指数涨出了互联网泡沫，进入千禧年石油迎来一波猛涨，最近十年大家都知道是标普500指数的单人solo，那么站在现在的角度看，未来十年最佳投资主题在哪？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b34e62e46cbd0e3f3d459d4760d6d3c\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"392\"></p>\n<p>今年在新冠大流行的影响下，资本市场多次见证历史，国际经济环境也比以往很多时候复杂，央行不停加大对市场的干预，低利率蔓延全球，目前全球大约50%的主权国家政策利率为零甚至低于零，这在以前是不敢想象的，这迫使投资者不得不加大风险偏好来寻求资产的正收益。</p>\n<p>过去十年里，美国股票市场的复合增长率为14.2%，未来十年还能持续吗？分析了过去50年里表现最突出的资产，在下一个十年中的符合增长率只有-4.8%。如果单纯依靠历史经验，美股的黄金十年已然过去。</p>\n<p>从基本面来看，受到这次疫情冲击，美国经济数据低迷，美联储维持接近于0的低利率，短期内继续向上突破很难了。过去十年里，Wilshire 500的市值从7万亿美元上涨到31万美元，约占美国家庭总资产的40%，目前大量美国家庭财富已经被股票市场所裹挟，后续维持市场向上的弹药也不充足。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c378f3716e4b1cc361055086ba61cdba\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>再从股市整体市值对经济影响来看，美股的回报率在未来十年依然没有吸引力。这不仅仅是美国市场一家，全球主要股票市场在未来十年的实际收益都有可能是为负。</p>\n<p>有投资者会想，股市不行就买债。不幸的是，在对全球主要公司债和主权债市场进行仔细分析后发现，未来十年也很难产生大回报。这意味着在全球可交易资产中，81%的资产约合180万亿美元投资会带来负收益，仅仅在商品和货币市场能实现某种形式的资本增值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb3ea0799e1a5aa73406a29b9e5fd3e\" tg-width=\"448\" tg-height=\"317\"></p>\n<p>虽然工业品种是少量能带来正收益的投资，但是考虑到其周期性，长期来看对投资组合的影响非常小。另一方面考虑到货币贬值，贵金属会获得青睐，最近涨的也很好，但现在的宏观大环境究竟是通胀还是通缩，业界还在争论，未来也有可能面临通缩的窘境，这会严重影响所有商品价格。</p>\n<p>那么剩下的选择只有现金了，考虑到美国货币供应量以年均42%的速度增长，并且在接下来几年里看不到改变趋势，所以现金也失去价值。选来选去只剩下最后一项资产，既可以对冲货币贬值有可以实现资产增值：比特币。</p>\n<p>从目前的市场规模来看，比特币大约占全球所有资产的4%，占可交易资产总额的7%。假设未来十年，比特币取代黄金市场的15%，这相当于每年有24%的回报。再假设，目前全球可交易资产总额约221万亿美元，如果其中3%流入比特币，那么在未来十年里，每年的回报率将达到44%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c92efe751f5cc4556ebf43c274bbe980\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"746\"></p>\n<p>未来十年加密货币对投资者来说至关重要，但目前的市场规模和潜在的上行收益预期远远落后于其他可交易资产（比如股票、债券等），使得被动投资者还处在观望位置。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股十年长牛后，谁能成为接棒者？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股十年长牛后，谁能成为接棒者？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-06 15:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道，国际宏观环境一直在不停演变，催生了不同时代不同投资主题，纵观历史，上世纪70年代是“黄金”十年，80年代日经指数一骑绝尘，90年代纳斯达克指数涨出了互联网泡沫，进入千禧年石油迎来一波猛涨，最近十年大家都知道是标普500指数的单人solo，那么站在现在的角度看，未来十年最佳投资主题在哪？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b34e62e46cbd0e3f3d459d4760d6d3c\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"392\"></p>\n<p>今年在新冠大流行的影响下，资本市场多次见证历史，国际经济环境也比以往很多时候复杂，央行不停加大对市场的干预，低利率蔓延全球，目前全球大约50%的主权国家政策利率为零甚至低于零，这在以前是不敢想象的，这迫使投资者不得不加大风险偏好来寻求资产的正收益。</p>\n<p>过去十年里，美国股票市场的复合增长率为14.2%，未来十年还能持续吗？分析了过去50年里表现最突出的资产，在下一个十年中的符合增长率只有-4.8%。如果单纯依靠历史经验，美股的黄金十年已然过去。</p>\n<p>从基本面来看，受到这次疫情冲击，美国经济数据低迷，美联储维持接近于0的低利率，短期内继续向上突破很难了。过去十年里，Wilshire 500的市值从7万亿美元上涨到31万美元，约占美国家庭总资产的40%，目前大量美国家庭财富已经被股票市场所裹挟，后续维持市场向上的弹药也不充足。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c378f3716e4b1cc361055086ba61cdba\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>再从股市整体市值对经济影响来看，美股的回报率在未来十年依然没有吸引力。这不仅仅是美国市场一家，全球主要股票市场在未来十年的实际收益都有可能是为负。</p>\n<p>有投资者会想，股市不行就买债。不幸的是，在对全球主要公司债和主权债市场进行仔细分析后发现，未来十年也很难产生大回报。这意味着在全球可交易资产中，81%的资产约合180万亿美元投资会带来负收益，仅仅在商品和货币市场能实现某种形式的资本增值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb3ea0799e1a5aa73406a29b9e5fd3e\" tg-width=\"448\" tg-height=\"317\"></p>\n<p>虽然工业品种是少量能带来正收益的投资，但是考虑到其周期性，长期来看对投资组合的影响非常小。另一方面考虑到货币贬值，贵金属会获得青睐，最近涨的也很好，但现在的宏观大环境究竟是通胀还是通缩，业界还在争论，未来也有可能面临通缩的窘境，这会严重影响所有商品价格。</p>\n<p>那么剩下的选择只有现金了，考虑到美国货币供应量以年均42%的速度增长，并且在接下来几年里看不到改变趋势，所以现金也失去价值。选来选去只剩下最后一项资产，既可以对冲货币贬值有可以实现资产增值：比特币。</p>\n<p>从目前的市场规模来看，比特币大约占全球所有资产的4%，占可交易资产总额的7%。假设未来十年，比特币取代黄金市场的15%，这相当于每年有24%的回报。再假设，目前全球可交易资产总额约221万亿美元，如果其中3%流入比特币，那么在未来十年里，每年的回报率将达到44%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c92efe751f5cc4556ebf43c274bbe980\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"746\"></p>\n<p>未来十年加密货币对投资者来说至关重要，但目前的市场规模和潜在的上行收益预期远远落后于其他可交易资产（比如股票、债券等），使得被动投资者还处在观望位置。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d37df08fc08f0ac2466b9b49c053bae7","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180846696","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，国际宏观环境一直在不停演变，催生了不同时代不同投资主题，纵观历史，上世纪70年代是“黄金”十年，80年代日经指数一骑绝尘，90年代纳斯达克指数涨出了互联网泡沫，进入千禧年石油迎来一波猛涨，最近十年大家都知道是标普500指数的单人solo，那么站在现在的角度看，未来十年最佳投资主题在哪？\n\n今年在新冠大流行的影响下，资本市场多次见证历史，国际经济环境也比以往很多时候复杂，央行不停加大对市场的干预，低利率蔓延全球，目前全球大约50%的主权国家政策利率为零甚至低于零，这在以前是不敢想象的，这迫使投资者不得不加大风险偏好来寻求资产的正收益。\n过去十年里，美国股票市场的复合增长率为14.2%，未来十年还能持续吗？分析了过去50年里表现最突出的资产，在下一个十年中的符合增长率只有-4.8%。如果单纯依靠历史经验，美股的黄金十年已然过去。\n从基本面来看，受到这次疫情冲击，美国经济数据低迷，美联储维持接近于0的低利率，短期内继续向上突破很难了。过去十年里，Wilshire 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