zack_zuti的个人主页 - 老虎社区

zack_zuti

zack_zuti

war1ock

IP属地：天津

29关注

1粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2024-12-03

$AAPL 20241206 240.0 CALL$

2024-11-29

$LLY 20241129 800.0 CALL$

2024-11-27

$AAPL 20241129 235.0 CALL$

2024-11-26

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2024-11-26

$AAPL 20241129 235.0 CALL$

2024-11-02

不看原因：内容低质

大选前夜，“特朗普交易风向标”崩了

2024-11-01

$LLY 20241101 835.0 CALL$

2024-08-24

写个什么狗屁问

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-08-20

$LLY 20240823 920.0 CALL$

2024-06-13

又在忽悠

2024-06-12

$AAPL 20240614 210.0 CALL$

2024-06-06

$AAPL 20240607 195.0 CALL$

2024-05-03

$AAPL 20240510 180.0 CALL$

2022-11-13

还选民主党这个**

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-29

**文

抱歉，原内容已删除

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800.0 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20241129 235.0 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10:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大选前夜，“特朗普交易风向标”崩了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480896709","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普媒体科技集团股价，最近三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。这意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普媒体科技集团股价，最近三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。这意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">距离美国总统大选还剩三天，“特朗普交易”风向急转直下，导致特朗普旗下社交媒体公司暴跌，严重削减了他的净资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">继周三下跌22%、周四下跌12%之后，社交媒体平台Truth Social母公司特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）的股价，周五又下跌14%，<strong>三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451894c5a09419f5644bcf4ba7835143\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"691\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周二收盘后，特朗普持有该公司的多数股权价值约为59亿美元，但到周五收盘，这一数字已经缩水了24亿元，至35亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>作为特朗普交易的最大风向标，DJT股价暴跌意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管如此，目前的民意调查清楚地表明，双方胜负难分，竞争几乎陷入僵局。宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州等可能决定选举命运的关键战场州的民意调查也显示，两位候选人的差距非常小。</p><h2 id=\"id_509325658\">特朗普胜算下降，DJT没有理由再涨了</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">DJT没有发布任何重大新闻来解释股价暴跌的原因。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick指出：“DJT等meme股很容易受到动量变化的影响。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周早些时候，他在接受雅虎财经采访时指出，最近几天博彩市场出现了明显的“氛围变化”：上周市场飙升对DJT来说是个好消息；相反，如果市场出现变化，股价就会下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“请记住，这只股票基本上是一种二元的、杠杆式的选举赌注，”Sosnick说，“如果他赢了，那么就有理由提高其价值。如果他输了，它就会变成一家收入微薄、几乎不赚钱的公司。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前特朗普重返白宫的呼声高涨，Polymarket 、PredictIt和Kalshi等预测网站都显示，特朗普赢得总统大选的几率高于哈里斯。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这一预期推动DJT股价从9月23日至周二收盘暴涨了四倍，市值膨胀至103亿美元，使Truth Social估值一度略高于10亿美元，甚至超过马斯克旗下社交网络平台X的隐含估值。</strong>富达基金在其最新的监管文件中对X的估值为9亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经过三个交易日的暴跌，DJT市值已经缩水至61亿美元。与此同时，<strong>DJT的基本面仍然非常温和，无法对公司股价形成支撑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8月，DJT公布了二季度（截至6月30日）业绩，净亏损1640万美元，其中约一半与该公司的SPAC交易相关费用有关。此外，该公司二季度收入略低于83.7万美元，同比下降30%。本月初，该公司透露其首席运营官已于9月辞职。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大选前夜，“特朗普交易风向标”崩了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大选前夜，“特朗普交易风向标”崩了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-02 10:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732736><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特朗普媒体科技集团股价，最近三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。这意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。距离美国总统大选还剩三天，“特朗普交易”风向急转直下，导致特朗普旗下社交媒体公司暴跌，严重削减了他的净资产。继周三下跌22%、周四下跌12%之后，社交媒体平台Truth Social母公司特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）的股价，周五又下跌14%，三个交易日...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732736\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad08844d561c013bcbb90b2cddf4c6e","relate_stocks":{"BK4547":"WSB热门概念","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732736","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2480896709","content_text":"特朗普媒体科技集团股价，最近三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。这意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。距离美国总统大选还剩三天，“特朗普交易”风向急转直下，导致特朗普旗下社交媒体公司暴跌，严重削减了他的净资产。继周三下跌22%、周四下跌12%之后，社交媒体平台Truth Social母公司特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）的股价，周五又下跌14%，三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。周二收盘后，特朗普持有该公司的多数股权价值约为59亿美元，但到周五收盘，这一数字已经缩水了24亿元，至35亿美元。作为特朗普交易的最大风向标，DJT股价暴跌意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。尽管如此，目前的民意调查清楚地表明，双方胜负难分，竞争几乎陷入僵局。宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州等可能决定选举命运的关键战场州的民意调查也显示，两位候选人的差距非常小。特朗普胜算下降，DJT没有理由再涨了DJT没有发布任何重大新闻来解释股价暴跌的原因。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick指出：“DJT等meme股很容易受到动量变化的影响。”本周早些时候，他在接受雅虎财经采访时指出，最近几天博彩市场出现了明显的“氛围变化”：上周市场飙升对DJT来说是个好消息；相反，如果市场出现变化，股价就会下跌。“请记住，这只股票基本上是一种二元的、杠杆式的选举赌注，”Sosnick说，“如果他赢了，那么就有理由提高其价值。如果他输了，它就会变成一家收入微薄、几乎不赚钱的公司。”此前特朗普重返白宫的呼声高涨，Polymarket 、PredictIt和Kalshi等预测网站都显示，特朗普赢得总统大选的几率高于哈里斯。这一预期推动DJT股价从9月23日至周二收盘暴涨了四倍，市值膨胀至103亿美元，使Truth 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CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb4055d9efc7c59d374d256780cf4d","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366362487050504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375316906106928,"gmtCreate":1732633862503,"gmtModify":1732634408241,"author":{"id":"3553123119400359","authorId":"3553123119400359","name":"zack_zuti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c9c44e8c751bae6cd86efe7ce58851","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553123119400359","authorIdStr":"3553123119400359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20241129 235.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20241129 235.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20241129 235.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20241129 235.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$AAPL 20241129 235.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c79c80efec8f8ef73f25927ae071f76","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375316906106928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366629451829488,"gmtCreate":1730535284882,"gmtModify":1730535287619,"author":{"id":"3553123119400359","authorId":"3553123119400359","name":"zack_zuti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c9c44e8c751bae6cd86efe7ce58851","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553123119400359","authorIdStr":"3553123119400359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不看原因：内容低质","listText":"不看原因：内容低质","text":"不看原因：内容低质","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366629451829488","repostId":"2480896709","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2480896709","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1730513409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2480896709?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-02 10:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大选前夜，“特朗普交易风向标”崩了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480896709","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普媒体科技集团股价，最近三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。这意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普媒体科技集团股价，最近三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。这意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">距离美国总统大选还剩三天，“特朗普交易”风向急转直下，导致特朗普旗下社交媒体公司暴跌，严重削减了他的净资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">继周三下跌22%、周四下跌12%之后，社交媒体平台Truth Social母公司特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）的股价，周五又下跌14%，<strong>三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451894c5a09419f5644bcf4ba7835143\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"691\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周二收盘后，特朗普持有该公司的多数股权价值约为59亿美元，但到周五收盘，这一数字已经缩水了24亿元，至35亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>作为特朗普交易的最大风向标，DJT股价暴跌意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管如此，目前的民意调查清楚地表明，双方胜负难分，竞争几乎陷入僵局。宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州等可能决定选举命运的关键战场州的民意调查也显示，两位候选人的差距非常小。</p><h2 id=\"id_509325658\">特朗普胜算下降，DJT没有理由再涨了</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">DJT没有发布任何重大新闻来解释股价暴跌的原因。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick指出：“DJT等meme股很容易受到动量变化的影响。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周早些时候，他在接受雅虎财经采访时指出，最近几天博彩市场出现了明显的“氛围变化”：上周市场飙升对DJT来说是个好消息；相反，如果市场出现变化，股价就会下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“请记住，这只股票基本上是一种二元的、杠杆式的选举赌注，”Sosnick说，“如果他赢了，那么就有理由提高其价值。如果他输了，它就会变成一家收入微薄、几乎不赚钱的公司。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前特朗普重返白宫的呼声高涨，Polymarket 、PredictIt和Kalshi等预测网站都显示，特朗普赢得总统大选的几率高于哈里斯。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这一预期推动DJT股价从9月23日至周二收盘暴涨了四倍，市值膨胀至103亿美元，使Truth Social估值一度略高于10亿美元，甚至超过马斯克旗下社交网络平台X的隐含估值。</strong>富达基金在其最新的监管文件中对X的估值为9亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经过三个交易日的暴跌，DJT市值已经缩水至61亿美元。与此同时，<strong>DJT的基本面仍然非常温和，无法对公司股价形成支撑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8月，DJT公布了二季度（截至6月30日）业绩，净亏损1640万美元，其中约一半与该公司的SPAC交易相关费用有关。此外，该公司二季度收入略低于83.7万美元，同比下降30%。本月初，该公司透露其首席运营官已于9月辞职。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大选前夜，“特朗普交易风向标”崩了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大选前夜，“特朗普交易风向标”崩了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-02 10:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732736><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特朗普媒体科技集团股价，最近三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。这意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。距离美国总统大选还剩三天，“特朗普交易”风向急转直下，导致特朗普旗下社交媒体公司暴跌，严重削减了他的净资产。继周三下跌22%、周四下跌12%之后，社交媒体平台Truth Social母公司特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）的股价，周五又下跌14%，三个交易日...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732736\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad08844d561c013bcbb90b2cddf4c6e","relate_stocks":{"BK4547":"WSB热门概念","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732736","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2480896709","content_text":"特朗普媒体科技集团股价，最近三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。这意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。距离美国总统大选还剩三天，“特朗普交易”风向急转直下，导致特朗普旗下社交媒体公司暴跌，严重削减了他的净资产。继周三下跌22%、周四下跌12%之后，社交媒体平台Truth Social母公司特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）的股价，周五又下跌14%，三个交易日累计暴跌36%，市值蒸发逾40亿美元。周二收盘后，特朗普持有该公司的多数股权价值约为59亿美元，但到周五收盘，这一数字已经缩水了24亿元，至35亿美元。作为特朗普交易的最大风向标，DJT股价暴跌意味着，市场定价已经发生180度大逆转——从买赢特朗普到买赢哈里斯。尽管如此，目前的民意调查清楚地表明，双方胜负难分，竞争几乎陷入僵局。宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州等可能决定选举命运的关键战场州的民意调查也显示，两位候选人的差距非常小。特朗普胜算下降，DJT没有理由再涨了DJT没有发布任何重大新闻来解释股价暴跌的原因。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick指出：“DJT等meme股很容易受到动量变化的影响。”本周早些时候，他在接受雅虎财经采访时指出，最近几天博彩市场出现了明显的“氛围变化”：上周市场飙升对DJT来说是个好消息；相反，如果市场出现变化，股价就会下跌。“请记住，这只股票基本上是一种二元的、杠杆式的选举赌注，”Sosnick说，“如果他赢了，那么就有理由提高其价值。如果他输了，它就会变成一家收入微薄、几乎不赚钱的公司。”此前特朗普重返白宫的呼声高涨，Polymarket 、PredictIt和Kalshi等预测网站都显示，特朗普赢得总统大选的几率高于哈里斯。这一预期推动DJT股价从9月23日至周二收盘暴涨了四倍，市值膨胀至103亿美元，使Truth Social估值一度略高于10亿美元，甚至超过马斯克旗下社交网络平台X的隐含估值。富达基金在其最新的监管文件中对X的估值为9亿美元。经过三个交易日的暴跌，DJT市值已经缩水至61亿美元。与此同时，DJT的基本面仍然非常温和，无法对公司股价形成支撑。8月，DJT公布了二季度（截至6月30日）业绩，净亏损1640万美元，其中约一半与该公司的SPAC交易相关费用有关。此外，该公司二季度收入略低于83.7万美元，同比下降30%。本月初，该公司透露其首席运营官已于9月辞职。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664735753,"gmtCreate":1668319841472,"gmtModify":1668323046712,"author":{"id":"3553123119400359","authorId":"3553123119400359","name":"zack_zuti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c9c44e8c751bae6cd86efe7ce58851","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553123119400359","authorIdStr":"3553123119400359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还选民主党这个**","listText":"还选民主党这个**","text":"还选民主党这个**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664735753","repostId":"1188896197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188896197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668306780,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188896197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-13 10:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场的坏消息：美国民主党锁定参议院控制权","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188896197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这意味着，在拜登任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。随着美国民主党锁定参议院控制权，市场的期待落空了。据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月12日，","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>这意味着，在拜登任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。</blockquote><p>随着美国民主党锁定参议院控制权，市场的期待落空了。</p><p>据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月12日，美国内华达州国会参议员民主党候选人凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托以48.7%的得票率击败其共和党竞争对手亚当·拉克索尔特，赢得内华达州国会参议员选举。</p><p>此前一天，美国民主党参议员马克·凯利在亚利桑那州赢得连任，击败美国前总统特朗普支持的共和党竞选者布莱克·马斯特斯。</p><p>截至目前，民主党已经取得了国会参议院的50席，取得参议院控制权。</p><p><b>对于拜登来说，保持民主党在参议院的优势至关重要。这意味着，在他任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。</b></p><p>截至目前。众议院“花落谁家”仍未揭晓，但初步结果倾向于共和党。目前共和党拥有211个席位，民主党拥有203个席位，需要218个席位才能成为多数。<b>分析指出，政治上的不利因素使民主党赢得众议院的机会非常渺茫。</b></p><p>如果共和党赢得对众议院的控制，预计共和党将对拜登的政策发起挑战，比如可能利用对债务上限的摊牌来迫使削减支出。</p><p>市场期待落空</p><p>对于美国此次中期选举，市场期待一个“全面胜利”的共和党。</p><p>市场期望最好的情况是共和党取得两院控制权，这样就能阻止民主党在未来两年内颁布更多的新法案，减少不确定性。</p><p>华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提到，对于市场而言，真正重要的或许不是哪一个政党获胜，而是政府内部的相互制衡。</p><p>Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示：</p><blockquote>美国政府分裂是件好事，政府什么事都做不成，未来两年也不会再有不确定性。</blockquote><blockquote>当企业了解竞争环境时，它们就能运营，如果共和党人在民主党总统期间控制国会，那将给美国企业带来一些确定性。</blockquote><p>LPL Financial策略师Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder本周写道:</p><blockquote>最大的政策影响是，如果我们有一个混合政府，将更难通过任何立法......这将消除任何对家庭或企业增税的重大风险。</blockquote><p>分裂的政府往往利好市场。数据显示，自1951年以来，分裂政府下标普500指数的年回报率为17%，而平均回报率为12%。</p><p>分裂政府也不完全是件“好事”</p><p>不过，政治力量平衡的转变对股价的影响，远远小于美联储引发的衰退的可能性。</p><p>Yardeni Research策略师Ed Yardeni指出，如果通胀在未来几个月没有明显放缓，那么这些政治周期都无关紧要。</p><p>另外一方面，如果美联储激进的紧缩政策确实引发了经济衰退，那么分裂的政府意味着不会有财政刺激措施来刺激经济增长。LPL Financial策略师写道：</p><blockquote>如果发生了衰退，由于财政应对力度较小，衰退可能会越来越严重。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场的坏消息：美国民主党锁定参议院控制权\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-13 10:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674816><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这意味着，在拜登任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。随着美国民主党锁定参议院控制权，市场的期待落空了。据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月12日，美国内华达州国会参议员民主党候选人凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托以48.7%的得票率击败其共和党竞争对手亚当·拉克索尔特，赢得内华达州国会参议员选举。此前一天，美国民主党参议员马克·凯利在亚利桑那州赢得连任...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674816\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674816","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188896197","content_text":"这意味着，在拜登任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。随着美国民主党锁定参议院控制权，市场的期待落空了。据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月12日，美国内华达州国会参议员民主党候选人凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托以48.7%的得票率击败其共和党竞争对手亚当·拉克索尔特，赢得内华达州国会参议员选举。此前一天，美国民主党参议员马克·凯利在亚利桑那州赢得连任，击败美国前总统特朗普支持的共和党竞选者布莱克·马斯特斯。截至目前，民主党已经取得了国会参议院的50席，取得参议院控制权。对于拜登来说，保持民主党在参议院的优势至关重要。这意味着，在他任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。截至目前。众议院“花落谁家”仍未揭晓，但初步结果倾向于共和党。目前共和党拥有211个席位，民主党拥有203个席位，需要218个席位才能成为多数。分析指出，政治上的不利因素使民主党赢得众议院的机会非常渺茫。如果共和党赢得对众议院的控制，预计共和党将对拜登的政策发起挑战，比如可能利用对债务上限的摊牌来迫使削减支出。市场期待落空对于美国此次中期选举，市场期待一个“全面胜利”的共和党。市场期望最好的情况是共和党取得两院控制权，这样就能阻止民主党在未来两年内颁布更多的新法案，减少不确定性。华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提到，对于市场而言，真正重要的或许不是哪一个政党获胜，而是政府内部的相互制衡。Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示：美国政府分裂是件好事，政府什么事都做不成，未来两年也不会再有不确定性。当企业了解竞争环境时，它们就能运营，如果共和党人在民主党总统期间控制国会，那将给美国企业带来一些确定性。LPL Financial策略师Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder本周写道:最大的政策影响是，如果我们有一个混合政府，将更难通过任何立法......这将消除任何对家庭或企业增税的重大风险。分裂的政府往往利好市场。数据显示，自1951年以来，分裂政府下标普500指数的年回报率为17%，而平均回报率为12%。分裂政府也不完全是件“好事”不过，政治力量平衡的转变对股价的影响，远远小于美联储引发的衰退的可能性。Yardeni Research策略师Ed Yardeni指出，如果通胀在未来几个月没有明显放缓，那么这些政治周期都无关紧要。另外一方面，如果美联储激进的紧缩政策确实引发了经济衰退，那么分裂的政府意味着不会有财政刺激措施来刺激经济增长。LPL Financial策略师写道：如果发生了衰退，由于财政应对力度较小，衰退可能会越来越严重。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316618875,"gmtCreate":1611930786397,"gmtModify":1703756544913,"author":{"id":"3553123119400359","authorId":"3553123119400359","name":"zack_zuti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c9c44e8c751bae6cd86efe7ce58851","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553123119400359","authorIdStr":"3553123119400359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**文","listText":"**文","text":"**文","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316618875","repostId":"1156662177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341927727251496,"gmtCreate":1724499086551,"gmtModify":1724502432341,"author":{"id":"3553123119400359","authorId":"3553123119400359","name":"zack_zuti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c9c44e8c751bae6cd86efe7ce58851","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553123119400359","authorIdStr":"3553123119400359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写个什么狗屁问","listText":"写个什么狗屁问","text":"写个什么狗屁问","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341927727251496","repostId":"2461686114","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461686114","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1724486404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2461686114?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-24 16:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔终于松口“降息”，背刺特朗普？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461686114","media":"观察者网","summary":"在此前已接连释放“将于9月降息”的信号后，美联储主席鲍威尔终于在当地时间8月23日明确表示，在今年美国总统大选竞选的冲刺阶段，美联储不会回避降息。但也有一些分析人士认为，鲍威尔的最新发言为美联储首次降息50个基点打开了大门，而非惯常的25个基点。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年到期，而他在美联储的理事席位将于2028年到期。不过，这并没有阻止特朗普在整个总统任期内继续指责和威胁鲍威尔。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在此前已接连释放“将于9月降息”的信号后，美联储主席鲍威尔终于在当地时间8月23日明确表示，在今年美国总统大选竞选的冲刺阶段，美联储不会回避降息。他认为，美国就业市场进一步“降温”将不受欢迎，并相信通货膨胀即将达到美联储所设定的2%的目标。</p><p>“政策调整的时机已经到来。”鲍威尔当天在由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，发表了备受期待的讲话，释放了强烈的信号，表明美联储将在9月中旬开始降息，而那时候距离11月5日的美国总统大选仅仅相隔约七周。</p><p>“他（鲍威尔）的此番言论，基本上宣告了美联储与通胀的斗争已经结束，如今保护就业是首要任务。”路透社这样分析指出，在大选日临近之际，美联储实质上已启动了全新的任务——从对抗通胀转向保护就业岗位。一些业内人士还根据鲍威尔的最新讲话分析认为，美联储可能会直接降息0.5个百分点，而非惯常的0.25个百分点，并坚信今年年底前至少会有一次大幅降息出现。</p><p>而随着美国副总统哈里斯前一天（8月22日）正式接受民主党总统候选人提名，这一事态发展也打破了此前似乎是“特朗普稍稍占优”的竞选格局。此前，特朗普曾称“美联储应当放弃降息”，但鲍威尔则表态做决定时不会被政治所左右。如今，一些共和党人认为，降息可能是一种在大选投票前推动经济的党派努力，甚至会对选情产生影响。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0876b511826c7c0998b6d9e2f26cf9b2\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_584197581\">担忧失业率恶化，美联储降息步调或“拉大”</h2><p>在当天的讲话中，鲍威尔表示，在新冠疫情大流行期间，美国的通胀率曾飙升至7%左右，他对于通胀率正稳步回落至2%的信心已经增强，而且上行的风险已经减弱。</p><p>但他同时也指出，美国劳动力市场的放缓是“毋庸置疑的”，“就业的下行风险已经增加”。他表示，尽管到目前为止，失业率迅速上升至4.3%是由招聘速度放缓而非更令人担忧的裁员增加所推动的，但美联储不会容忍失业率进一步恶化。</p><p>“我们不寻求也不欢迎劳动力市场状况进一步降温。”鲍威尔表示：“我们将在进一步实现物价稳定方面竭尽所能，并尽一切努力支持强劲的劳动力市场。”</p><p>当地时间8月21日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，从2023年4月到2024年3月，美国的新增非农就业人数比最初统计的数量减少81.8万人。这是美国非农就业数据自2009年以来的最大修正幅度，不少分析认为，此次非农就业数据的下修，显示美国就业市场明显没有此前数据表现的那样强劲。</p><p>路透社称，鲍威尔对保护就业市场的最新发言，进一步增加了降息的可能性，特别是在许多政策制定者声称“就业市场仍然健康”，但如果美国政府定于9月6日发布的8月份就业报告内容进一步恶化的话。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7f556d89614843f3654fc2e8ce8e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"/></p><p>分析师和金融市场对此已经普遍预期，美联储将在9月17日至18日的政策会议上首次降息。事实上，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月30日至31日的会议纪要已显示，预计美联储将在9月份开始降息后，这一观点得到了巩固。</p><p>鲍威尔说，目前的政策利率在5.25%至5.50%之间，美联储有“充足的空间”来降低借贷成本，以缓冲经济。大多数分析师预测，美联储将以降息25个基点开始其宽松政策，这是惯常的降息幅度。但也有一些分析人士认为，鲍威尔的最新发言为美联储首次降息50个基点打开了大门，而非惯常的25个基点。</p><p>交易员们认为，美联储以降息50个基点开始其宽松周期的可能性超过三成，并十分坚信在今年年底前至少会有一次大幅降息出现。</p><h2 id=\"id_4112549268\">鲍威尔担忧通胀和失业率，多个地方联储支持降息</h2><p>路透社提到，鲍威尔如今的发言，与其在2021年和2022年美国通胀率飙升时的论调大为不同。自2022年3月起，美联储开始将基准政策利率上调至了22年以来的最高水平。两年前，也是在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，他当时警告说，劳工及其家庭将感受到失业率上升和信贷成本提高所带来的“痛苦”。</p><p>即便如今4.3%的通胀率水平与美联储2%的长期通胀目标相符，但这也比鲍威尔在2018年担任美联储主席时的水平要高。鲍威尔还表示，在新冠疫情大流行导致2000多万人失业并将失业率推高至14.8%的高点后，他希望恢复到疫情前的状况。</p><p>报道认为，当前失业率的显著上升，可能会削弱鲍威尔在美联储主席任内的“遗产”，他过往曾改变货币政策方向，更加重视美联储的就业使命，并认为低失业率和稳定通胀可以并存。</p><p>“鲍威尔主席的讲话清楚地表明，可能会有一系列降息，其中一些可能是50个基点的幅度。”研究机构通胀洞察（Inflation Insights）负责人奥迈尔·谢里夫（Omair Sharif）表示：“虽然一些美联储官员可能希望降息25个基点，但主席保留了选择权……也就是说，‘如果我们觉得有必要，我们会降息50个基点’。”</p><p>市场预计，到2025年年底，美联储的政策利率将处于3.00%至3.25%的区间，比目前的水平低逾2个百分点。</p><p>在鲍威尔发表讲话后，美国股市当天大幅上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数上涨约1%，接近历史高点。美国国债收益率下降，美元兑一篮子货币走弱。同时，鲍威尔的发言也对美国其他各地联邦储备银行产生了连锁反应，多地的联邦储备银行总裁等其他政策制定者也加入支持即将到来的宽松政策。</p><h2 id=\"id_2279954281\">距离大选日仅七周，降息会影响选情吗？</h2><p>值得注意的是，一些共和党籍国会议员警告称，鲍威尔及其领导的美联储试图降息的政策，将被视为在大选投票前推动经济的党派努力。路透社也认为，对于美国总统大选来说，降息也可能打破此前似乎是“特朗普稍稍占优”的竞选格局。</p><p>鲍威尔及其政策制定者同僚，包括特朗普任内任命的其他官员，如美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller），过去四周中都稳步朝着在下个月会议上达成降息的共识前进，理由是经济数据越来越显示，通胀正在减弱，劳动力市场风险正在增加。</p><p>路透社称，这不是美联储第一次在大选年开始降息周期，之前的大选年政策转变都同现任和挑战者的胜选和败选同时发生。然而，今年9月18日潜在的降息，将是自1976年以来距离总统大选日程第二近的一次政策转变，大约只有七周。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b9ca25033c221fd73cbceb789eaf424\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"/></p><p>1976年，时任美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯（Arthur Burns）开启一个短暂的宽松政策周期，距离共和党籍在任总统杰拉尔德·福特（Gerald Ford）和民主党籍挑战者吉米·卡特（Jimmy Carter）之间的大选只有四周，最终福特输掉了大选。</p><p>在今年6月接受彭博社采访时，对于美联储主席一职，美国前总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普曾强调，自己如若胜选，不会在鲍威尔的任期结束前撤换他。当地时间7月15日，鲍威尔本人也表示，他没有在任期届满前离开美联储主席这一职位的计划。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年到期，而他在美联储的理事席位将于2028年到期。</p><p>最初，鲍威尔是由奥巴马在其执政时期任命为美联储理事会成员的，而特朗普在其执政时期（2018年年初）选择了鲍威尔担任美联储主席。然而不久之后，特朗普就转而反对鲍威尔，指责他执掌美联储第一年的加息行动。特朗普甚至讨论过解雇鲍威尔，但其幕僚们后来表示，特朗普得出的结论是，他可能没有权力这么做。不过，这并没有阻止特朗普在整个总统任期内继续指责和威胁鲍威尔。</p><p>在接受彭博社采访时，特朗普还认为，在今年11月美国总统大选之前，美联储应该放弃降息。然而，鲍威尔也多次被问及大选会否影响美联储是否降息的决定，鲍威尔7月15日则重申，他和其他美联储决策者在作决策时，不会考虑政治因素。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔终于松口“降息”，背刺特朗普？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔终于松口“降息”，背刺特朗普？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-24 16:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-08-24/doc-incktfvq0503454.shtml><strong>观察者网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在此前已接连释放“将于9月降息”的信号后，美联储主席鲍威尔终于在当地时间8月23日明确表示，在今年美国总统大选竞选的冲刺阶段，美联储不会回避降息。他认为，美国就业市场进一步“降温”将不受欢迎，并相信通货膨胀即将达到美联储所设定的2%的目标。“政策调整的时机已经到来。”鲍威尔当天在由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，发表了备受期待的讲话，释放了强烈的信号，表明美联储将在9月中旬开始...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-08-24/doc-incktfvq0503454.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0876b511826c7c0998b6d9e2f26cf9b2","relate_stocks":{"OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-08-24/doc-incktfvq0503454.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2461686114","content_text":"在此前已接连释放“将于9月降息”的信号后，美联储主席鲍威尔终于在当地时间8月23日明确表示，在今年美国总统大选竞选的冲刺阶段，美联储不会回避降息。他认为，美国就业市场进一步“降温”将不受欢迎，并相信通货膨胀即将达到美联储所设定的2%的目标。“政策调整的时机已经到来。”鲍威尔当天在由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，发表了备受期待的讲话，释放了强烈的信号，表明美联储将在9月中旬开始降息，而那时候距离11月5日的美国总统大选仅仅相隔约七周。“他（鲍威尔）的此番言论，基本上宣告了美联储与通胀的斗争已经结束，如今保护就业是首要任务。”路透社这样分析指出，在大选日临近之际，美联储实质上已启动了全新的任务——从对抗通胀转向保护就业岗位。一些业内人士还根据鲍威尔的最新讲话分析认为，美联储可能会直接降息0.5个百分点，而非惯常的0.25个百分点，并坚信今年年底前至少会有一次大幅降息出现。而随着美国副总统哈里斯前一天（8月22日）正式接受民主党总统候选人提名，这一事态发展也打破了此前似乎是“特朗普稍稍占优”的竞选格局。此前，特朗普曾称“美联储应当放弃降息”，但鲍威尔则表态做决定时不会被政治所左右。如今，一些共和党人认为，降息可能是一种在大选投票前推动经济的党派努力，甚至会对选情产生影响。担忧失业率恶化，美联储降息步调或“拉大”在当天的讲话中，鲍威尔表示，在新冠疫情大流行期间，美国的通胀率曾飙升至7%左右，他对于通胀率正稳步回落至2%的信心已经增强，而且上行的风险已经减弱。但他同时也指出，美国劳动力市场的放缓是“毋庸置疑的”，“就业的下行风险已经增加”。他表示，尽管到目前为止，失业率迅速上升至4.3%是由招聘速度放缓而非更令人担忧的裁员增加所推动的，但美联储不会容忍失业率进一步恶化。“我们不寻求也不欢迎劳动力市场状况进一步降温。”鲍威尔表示：“我们将在进一步实现物价稳定方面竭尽所能，并尽一切努力支持强劲的劳动力市场。”当地时间8月21日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，从2023年4月到2024年3月，美国的新增非农就业人数比最初统计的数量减少81.8万人。这是美国非农就业数据自2009年以来的最大修正幅度，不少分析认为，此次非农就业数据的下修，显示美国就业市场明显没有此前数据表现的那样强劲。路透社称，鲍威尔对保护就业市场的最新发言，进一步增加了降息的可能性，特别是在许多政策制定者声称“就业市场仍然健康”，但如果美国政府定于9月6日发布的8月份就业报告内容进一步恶化的话。分析师和金融市场对此已经普遍预期，美联储将在9月17日至18日的政策会议上首次降息。事实上，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月30日至31日的会议纪要已显示，预计美联储将在9月份开始降息后，这一观点得到了巩固。鲍威尔说，目前的政策利率在5.25%至5.50%之间，美联储有“充足的空间”来降低借贷成本，以缓冲经济。大多数分析师预测，美联储将以降息25个基点开始其宽松政策，这是惯常的降息幅度。但也有一些分析人士认为，鲍威尔的最新发言为美联储首次降息50个基点打开了大门，而非惯常的25个基点。交易员们认为，美联储以降息50个基点开始其宽松周期的可能性超过三成，并十分坚信在今年年底前至少会有一次大幅降息出现。鲍威尔担忧通胀和失业率，多个地方联储支持降息路透社提到，鲍威尔如今的发言，与其在2021年和2022年美国通胀率飙升时的论调大为不同。自2022年3月起，美联储开始将基准政策利率上调至了22年以来的最高水平。两年前，也是在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，他当时警告说，劳工及其家庭将感受到失业率上升和信贷成本提高所带来的“痛苦”。即便如今4.3%的通胀率水平与美联储2%的长期通胀目标相符，但这也比鲍威尔在2018年担任美联储主席时的水平要高。鲍威尔还表示，在新冠疫情大流行导致2000多万人失业并将失业率推高至14.8%的高点后，他希望恢复到疫情前的状况。报道认为，当前失业率的显著上升，可能会削弱鲍威尔在美联储主席任内的“遗产”，他过往曾改变货币政策方向，更加重视美联储的就业使命，并认为低失业率和稳定通胀可以并存。“鲍威尔主席的讲话清楚地表明，可能会有一系列降息，其中一些可能是50个基点的幅度。”研究机构通胀洞察（Inflation Insights）负责人奥迈尔·谢里夫（Omair Sharif）表示：“虽然一些美联储官员可能希望降息25个基点，但主席保留了选择权……也就是说，‘如果我们觉得有必要，我们会降息50个基点’。”市场预计，到2025年年底，美联储的政策利率将处于3.00%至3.25%的区间，比目前的水平低逾2个百分点。在鲍威尔发表讲话后，美国股市当天大幅上涨，标普500指数上涨约1%，接近历史高点。美国国债收益率下降，美元兑一篮子货币走弱。同时，鲍威尔的发言也对美国其他各地联邦储备银行产生了连锁反应，多地的联邦储备银行总裁等其他政策制定者也加入支持即将到来的宽松政策。距离大选日仅七周，降息会影响选情吗？值得注意的是，一些共和党籍国会议员警告称，鲍威尔及其领导的美联储试图降息的政策，将被视为在大选投票前推动经济的党派努力。路透社也认为，对于美国总统大选来说，降息也可能打破此前似乎是“特朗普稍稍占优”的竞选格局。鲍威尔及其政策制定者同僚，包括特朗普任内任命的其他官员，如美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller），过去四周中都稳步朝着在下个月会议上达成降息的共识前进，理由是经济数据越来越显示，通胀正在减弱，劳动力市场风险正在增加。路透社称，这不是美联储第一次在大选年开始降息周期，之前的大选年政策转变都同现任和挑战者的胜选和败选同时发生。然而，今年9月18日潜在的降息，将是自1976年以来距离总统大选日程第二近的一次政策转变，大约只有七周。1976年，时任美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯（Arthur Burns）开启一个短暂的宽松政策周期，距离共和党籍在任总统杰拉尔德·福特（Gerald Ford）和民主党籍挑战者吉米·卡特（Jimmy Carter）之间的大选只有四周，最终福特输掉了大选。在今年6月接受彭博社采访时，对于美联储主席一职，美国前总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普曾强调，自己如若胜选，不会在鲍威尔的任期结束前撤换他。当地时间7月15日，鲍威尔本人也表示，他没有在任期届满前离开美联储主席这一职位的计划。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年到期，而他在美联储的理事席位将于2028年到期。最初，鲍威尔是由奥巴马在其执政时期任命为美联储理事会成员的，而特朗普在其执政时期（2018年年初）选择了鲍威尔担任美联储主席。然而不久之后，特朗普就转而反对鲍威尔，指责他执掌美联储第一年的加息行动。特朗普甚至讨论过解雇鲍威尔，但其幕僚们后来表示，特朗普得出的结论是，他可能没有权力这么做。不过，这并没有阻止特朗普在整个总统任期内继续指责和威胁鲍威尔。在接受彭博社采访时，特朗普还认为，在今年11月美国总统大选之前，美联储应该放弃降息。然而，鲍威尔也多次被问及大选会否影响美联储是否降息的决定，鲍威尔7月15日则重申，他和其他美联储决策者在作决策时，不会考虑政治因素。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377680637346080,"gmtCreate":1733237555876,"gmtModify":1733237623107,"author":{"id":"3553123119400359","authorId":"3553123119400359","name":"zack_zuti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c9c44e8c751bae6cd86efe7ce58851","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553123119400359","authorIdStr":"3553123119400359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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