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2021-06-25

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The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer

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18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p>\n<p>Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p>\n<p>Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p>\n<p>And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p>\n<p>While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p>\n<p><b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p>\n<p><b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p>\n<p>Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p>\n<p>Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p>\n<p>Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p>\n<p>What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p>\n<p><b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p>\n<p>Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p>\n<p>Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p>\n<p><b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p>\n<p>For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p>\n<p>The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p>\n<p>Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p>\n<p><b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p>\n<p>Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p>\n<p>But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p>\n<p>Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126834085,"gmtCreate":1624550633847,"gmtModify":1634004457337,"author":{"id":"3553000140186733","authorId":"3553000140186733","name":"AaronSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e613e568575b478aa6932eab586da48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553000140186733","idStr":"3553000140186733"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126834085","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198422658","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624533829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198422658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 19:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198422658","media":"The Street","summary":"Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?At first glance, Apple  -Get Report and Amazon  -Get Report stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.First, I find it hig","content":"<blockquote>\n Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n</blockquote>\n<p>At first glance, Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.</p>\n<p>But the Amazon Maven has unearthed an interesting finding. Both AAPL and AMZN are worth almost the same, in P/E terms, if one were to look forward to 2025. At comparable valuations, which is a better buy-and-hold through the mid-2020s?</p>\n<p><b>AAPL and AMZN: same valuation?</b></p>\n<p>The P/E multiple is a popular valuation metric that adds context to a stock’s market price. The numerator tends to be prior-year (trailing), current-year or next-year (forward) earnings per share.</p>\n<p>Amazon commands a higher multiple, among other reasons, because of the company’s more aggressive growth profile. Wall Street expects the e-commerce giant to increase EPS by a factor of four in the next five years. Apple, on the other hand, is project to “only” double earnings in the same period.</p>\n<p>By 2025, this is what analysts expect of each company’s bottom line, and what the stock’s P/E would be if share prices remained unchanged:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Amazon</b>: 2025 EPS of $172.30, for a P/E of<b>20.4</b>times</li>\n <li><b>Apple</b>: fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.30, for a P/E of<b>21.2</b>times</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Given enough time and assuming that current earnings projections are close enough to accurate, Amazon tends to become a less aggressively valued stock by the year. Maybe one day, in the not-too-distant future, shares could even start to look more appealing to value investors.</p>\n<p><b>Which is the best bet?</b></p>\n<p>If Amazon and Apple are valued at roughly the same 2025 P/E, one fair question to ask is: which stock might perform best in the next five years? I can use the earnings multiple as a guide to think through this question.</p>\n<p>From the P/E formula, one can derive the following: future stock price is determined by the company’s earnings delivered (the denominator “E”) and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings (the valuation multiple). Therefore, in the Amazon vs. Apple race to 2025, whichever does best at delivering EPS above consensus and/or commanding a richer earnings multiple wins.</p>\n<p>Clearly, this is open for debate since the future in uncertain. But I believe that Amazon stock has a better chance of producing higher gains than Apple through 2025.</p>\n<p>First, I find it highly unlikely that AMZN’s earnings multiple will converge from the 60s of today to the low 20s in 2025. This would only be feasible if the company’s growth opportunities dried out quickly, which I am not counting on. On the other hand, Apple’s P/E is more likely to stay around 20 to 25 times, given the more mature profile of the company relative to Amazon.</p>\n<p>This is not to say that I expect Amazon’s P/E to expand from 64 times. The opposite is more likely to happen, as the company ages. But if the stock is valued at, say, 40 times EPS in 2025, Amazon would not even need to deliver results beyond expectations to see its stock price double in five years.</p>\n<p>Regarding consensus, I also think that Amazon can beat expectations by a wider margin than Apple could. The e-commerce giant has been more aggressive at investing back in the business. The green- and brown-field revenue growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem better.</p>\n<p>In addition, Amazon’s margins could expand substantially (see five-year trend below), if or once the company’s online retail business gets closer to maturity. Apple could also improve its margin profile but probably much less so, given how profitable the company already is.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e59ae6a459751303dfd48c45ae47f99\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Figure 2: AMZN gross margin vs. operating margin.</i></p>\n<p><i>Stock Rover</i></p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>Fun fact: Amazon and Apple stock trade at roughly the same 2025 P/E (i.e. 2025 earnings in the denominator) of around 21 times, even though AMZN seems much more expensive at today’s valuations. Which do you think will produce more gains in the next five years?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56ed880cf0d62550fc0ee752a46efff\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 19:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n\nAt first glance, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198422658","content_text":"Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n\nAt first glance, Apple (AAPL) -Get Report and Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.\nBut the Amazon Maven has unearthed an interesting finding. Both AAPL and AMZN are worth almost the same, in P/E terms, if one were to look forward to 2025. At comparable valuations, which is a better buy-and-hold through the mid-2020s?\nAAPL and AMZN: same valuation?\nThe P/E multiple is a popular valuation metric that adds context to a stock’s market price. The numerator tends to be prior-year (trailing), current-year or next-year (forward) earnings per share.\nAmazon commands a higher multiple, among other reasons, because of the company’s more aggressive growth profile. Wall Street expects the e-commerce giant to increase EPS by a factor of four in the next five years. Apple, on the other hand, is project to “only” double earnings in the same period.\nBy 2025, this is what analysts expect of each company’s bottom line, and what the stock’s P/E would be if share prices remained unchanged:\n\nAmazon: 2025 EPS of $172.30, for a P/E of20.4times\nApple: fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.30, for a P/E of21.2times\n\nGiven enough time and assuming that current earnings projections are close enough to accurate, Amazon tends to become a less aggressively valued stock by the year. Maybe one day, in the not-too-distant future, shares could even start to look more appealing to value investors.\nWhich is the best bet?\nIf Amazon and Apple are valued at roughly the same 2025 P/E, one fair question to ask is: which stock might perform best in the next five years? I can use the earnings multiple as a guide to think through this question.\nFrom the P/E formula, one can derive the following: future stock price is determined by the company’s earnings delivered (the denominator “E”) and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings (the valuation multiple). Therefore, in the Amazon vs. Apple race to 2025, whichever does best at delivering EPS above consensus and/or commanding a richer earnings multiple wins.\nClearly, this is open for debate since the future in uncertain. But I believe that Amazon stock has a better chance of producing higher gains than Apple through 2025.\nFirst, I find it highly unlikely that AMZN’s earnings multiple will converge from the 60s of today to the low 20s in 2025. This would only be feasible if the company’s growth opportunities dried out quickly, which I am not counting on. On the other hand, Apple’s P/E is more likely to stay around 20 to 25 times, given the more mature profile of the company relative to Amazon.\nThis is not to say that I expect Amazon’s P/E to expand from 64 times. The opposite is more likely to happen, as the company ages. But if the stock is valued at, say, 40 times EPS in 2025, Amazon would not even need to deliver results beyond expectations to see its stock price double in five years.\nRegarding consensus, I also think that Amazon can beat expectations by a wider margin than Apple could. The e-commerce giant has been more aggressive at investing back in the business. The green- and brown-field revenue growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem better.\nIn addition, Amazon’s margins could expand substantially (see five-year trend below), if or once the company’s online retail business gets closer to maturity. Apple could also improve its margin profile but probably much less so, given how profitable the company already is.\nFigure 2: AMZN gross margin vs. operating margin.\nStock Rover\nTwitter speaks\nFun fact: Amazon and Apple stock trade at roughly the same 2025 P/E (i.e. 2025 earnings in the denominator) of around 21 times, even though AMZN seems much more expensive at today’s valuations. Which do you think will produce more gains in the next five years?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126838181,"gmtCreate":1624550542143,"gmtModify":1631885570261,"author":{"id":"3553000140186733","authorId":"3553000140186733","name":"AaronSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e613e568575b478aa6932eab586da48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553000140186733","idStr":"3553000140186733"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Square(SQ)$[得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cabce2a4fe0803af7e9bb8dd7a957a35","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126838181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":126834085,"gmtCreate":1624550633847,"gmtModify":1634004457337,"author":{"id":"3553000140186733","authorId":"3553000140186733","name":"AaronSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e613e568575b478aa6932eab586da48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553000140186733","idStr":"3553000140186733"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126834085","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198422658","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624533829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198422658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 19:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198422658","media":"The Street","summary":"Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?At first glance, Apple  -Get Report and Amazon  -Get Report stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.First, I find it hig","content":"<blockquote>\n Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n</blockquote>\n<p>At first glance, Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.</p>\n<p>But the Amazon Maven has unearthed an interesting finding. Both AAPL and AMZN are worth almost the same, in P/E terms, if one were to look forward to 2025. At comparable valuations, which is a better buy-and-hold through the mid-2020s?</p>\n<p><b>AAPL and AMZN: same valuation?</b></p>\n<p>The P/E multiple is a popular valuation metric that adds context to a stock’s market price. The numerator tends to be prior-year (trailing), current-year or next-year (forward) earnings per share.</p>\n<p>Amazon commands a higher multiple, among other reasons, because of the company’s more aggressive growth profile. Wall Street expects the e-commerce giant to increase EPS by a factor of four in the next five years. Apple, on the other hand, is project to “only” double earnings in the same period.</p>\n<p>By 2025, this is what analysts expect of each company’s bottom line, and what the stock’s P/E would be if share prices remained unchanged:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Amazon</b>: 2025 EPS of $172.30, for a P/E of<b>20.4</b>times</li>\n <li><b>Apple</b>: fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.30, for a P/E of<b>21.2</b>times</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Given enough time and assuming that current earnings projections are close enough to accurate, Amazon tends to become a less aggressively valued stock by the year. Maybe one day, in the not-too-distant future, shares could even start to look more appealing to value investors.</p>\n<p><b>Which is the best bet?</b></p>\n<p>If Amazon and Apple are valued at roughly the same 2025 P/E, one fair question to ask is: which stock might perform best in the next five years? I can use the earnings multiple as a guide to think through this question.</p>\n<p>From the P/E formula, one can derive the following: future stock price is determined by the company’s earnings delivered (the denominator “E”) and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings (the valuation multiple). Therefore, in the Amazon vs. Apple race to 2025, whichever does best at delivering EPS above consensus and/or commanding a richer earnings multiple wins.</p>\n<p>Clearly, this is open for debate since the future in uncertain. But I believe that Amazon stock has a better chance of producing higher gains than Apple through 2025.</p>\n<p>First, I find it highly unlikely that AMZN’s earnings multiple will converge from the 60s of today to the low 20s in 2025. This would only be feasible if the company’s growth opportunities dried out quickly, which I am not counting on. On the other hand, Apple’s P/E is more likely to stay around 20 to 25 times, given the more mature profile of the company relative to Amazon.</p>\n<p>This is not to say that I expect Amazon’s P/E to expand from 64 times. The opposite is more likely to happen, as the company ages. But if the stock is valued at, say, 40 times EPS in 2025, Amazon would not even need to deliver results beyond expectations to see its stock price double in five years.</p>\n<p>Regarding consensus, I also think that Amazon can beat expectations by a wider margin than Apple could. The e-commerce giant has been more aggressive at investing back in the business. The green- and brown-field revenue growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem better.</p>\n<p>In addition, Amazon’s margins could expand substantially (see five-year trend below), if or once the company’s online retail business gets closer to maturity. Apple could also improve its margin profile but probably much less so, given how profitable the company already is.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e59ae6a459751303dfd48c45ae47f99\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Figure 2: AMZN gross margin vs. operating margin.</i></p>\n<p><i>Stock Rover</i></p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>Fun fact: Amazon and Apple stock trade at roughly the same 2025 P/E (i.e. 2025 earnings in the denominator) of around 21 times, even though AMZN seems much more expensive at today’s valuations. Which do you think will produce more gains in the next five years?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56ed880cf0d62550fc0ee752a46efff\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Amazon Stock A Better Buy Than Apple Through 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 19:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n\nAt first glance, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/is-amazon-stock-a-better-buy-than-apple-through-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198422658","content_text":"Amazon shares may seem much pricier than Apple today, but the valuation gap should narrow over time. With both stocks valued at 21 times 2025 earnings, which is a better buy today?\n\nAt first glance, Apple (AAPL) -Get Report and Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report stocks appeal to two distinct group of investors. The former, trading at 26 times current earnings, is a blend of value and growth, what some might call a GARP play. The latter, trading at 64 times EPS, is the highest growth of FAAMG names.\nBut the Amazon Maven has unearthed an interesting finding. Both AAPL and AMZN are worth almost the same, in P/E terms, if one were to look forward to 2025. At comparable valuations, which is a better buy-and-hold through the mid-2020s?\nAAPL and AMZN: same valuation?\nThe P/E multiple is a popular valuation metric that adds context to a stock’s market price. The numerator tends to be prior-year (trailing), current-year or next-year (forward) earnings per share.\nAmazon commands a higher multiple, among other reasons, because of the company’s more aggressive growth profile. Wall Street expects the e-commerce giant to increase EPS by a factor of four in the next five years. Apple, on the other hand, is project to “only” double earnings in the same period.\nBy 2025, this is what analysts expect of each company’s bottom line, and what the stock’s P/E would be if share prices remained unchanged:\n\nAmazon: 2025 EPS of $172.30, for a P/E of20.4times\nApple: fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.30, for a P/E of21.2times\n\nGiven enough time and assuming that current earnings projections are close enough to accurate, Amazon tends to become a less aggressively valued stock by the year. Maybe one day, in the not-too-distant future, shares could even start to look more appealing to value investors.\nWhich is the best bet?\nIf Amazon and Apple are valued at roughly the same 2025 P/E, one fair question to ask is: which stock might perform best in the next five years? I can use the earnings multiple as a guide to think through this question.\nFrom the P/E formula, one can derive the following: future stock price is determined by the company’s earnings delivered (the denominator “E”) and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings (the valuation multiple). Therefore, in the Amazon vs. Apple race to 2025, whichever does best at delivering EPS above consensus and/or commanding a richer earnings multiple wins.\nClearly, this is open for debate since the future in uncertain. But I believe that Amazon stock has a better chance of producing higher gains than Apple through 2025.\nFirst, I find it highly unlikely that AMZN’s earnings multiple will converge from the 60s of today to the low 20s in 2025. This would only be feasible if the company’s growth opportunities dried out quickly, which I am not counting on. On the other hand, Apple’s P/E is more likely to stay around 20 to 25 times, given the more mature profile of the company relative to Amazon.\nThis is not to say that I expect Amazon’s P/E to expand from 64 times. The opposite is more likely to happen, as the company ages. But if the stock is valued at, say, 40 times EPS in 2025, Amazon would not even need to deliver results beyond expectations to see its stock price double in five years.\nRegarding consensus, I also think that Amazon can beat expectations by a wider margin than Apple could. The e-commerce giant has been more aggressive at investing back in the business. The green- and brown-field revenue growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem better.\nIn addition, Amazon’s margins could expand substantially (see five-year trend below), if or once the company’s online retail business gets closer to maturity. Apple could also improve its margin profile but probably much less so, given how profitable the company already is.\nFigure 2: AMZN gross margin vs. operating margin.\nStock Rover\nTwitter speaks\nFun fact: Amazon and Apple stock trade at roughly the same 2025 P/E (i.e. 2025 earnings in the denominator) of around 21 times, even though AMZN seems much more expensive at today’s valuations. Which do you think will produce more gains in the next five years?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126838181,"gmtCreate":1624550542143,"gmtModify":1631885570261,"author":{"id":"3553000140186733","authorId":"3553000140186733","name":"AaronSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e613e568575b478aa6932eab586da48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553000140186733","idStr":"3553000140186733"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Square(SQ)$[得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cabce2a4fe0803af7e9bb8dd7a957a35","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126838181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855821076,"gmtCreate":1635350882884,"gmtModify":1635350883014,"author":{"id":"3553000140186733","authorId":"3553000140186733","name":"AaronSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e613e568575b478aa6932eab586da48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553000140186733","idStr":"3553000140186733"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855821076","repostId":"2178500236","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2178500236","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1635343320,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2178500236?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-27 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marqeta stock rockets after company lands Bill.com partnership","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2178500236","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Marqeta Inc. $(MQ)$ said Wednesday that it has struck a new partnership with Bill.com Holdings Inc. ","content":"<p>Marqeta Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$(MQ)$</a> said Wednesday that it has struck a new partnership with Bill.com Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILL.UK\">$(BILL.UK)$</a> through which Marqeta will provide card-issuing technology that can be used by Bill.com's financial-institution partners. </p>\n<p>Marqeta's technology will \"power new innovative commercial card products for Bill.com's financial institution customers,\" the company said in a release. Marqeta offers application programming interfaces that make it easier for companies to build out card programs, while Bill.com seeks to help small- and medium-sized businesses automate accounts payable and other business functions. </p>\n<p>The partnership will help Bill.com customers \"streamline payments and process payments faster,\" Marqeta Chief Executive Jason Gardner said in a release. Bill.com Chief Executive René Lacerte added that the offering will give clients \"enhanced financial operations capabilities, enabling faster and easier payment offerings.\" Marqeta shares are up 13.3% in morning trading Wednesday, and they've gained 36.8% over the past three months as the S&amp;P 500 has risen 4.0%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marqeta stock rockets after company lands Bill.com partnership</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarqeta stock rockets after company lands Bill.com partnership\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-27 22:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Marqeta Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$(MQ)$</a> said Wednesday that it has struck a new partnership with Bill.com Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILL.UK\">$(BILL.UK)$</a> through which Marqeta will provide card-issuing technology that can be used by Bill.com's financial-institution partners. </p>\n<p>Marqeta's technology will \"power new innovative commercial card products for Bill.com's financial institution customers,\" the company said in a release. Marqeta offers application programming interfaces that make it easier for companies to build out card programs, while Bill.com seeks to help small- and medium-sized businesses automate accounts payable and other business functions. </p>\n<p>The partnership will help Bill.com customers \"streamline payments and process payments faster,\" Marqeta Chief Executive Jason Gardner said in a release. Bill.com Chief Executive René Lacerte added that the offering will give clients \"enhanced financial operations capabilities, enabling faster and easier payment offerings.\" Marqeta shares are up 13.3% in morning trading Wednesday, and they've gained 36.8% over the past three months as the S&amp;P 500 has risen 4.0%.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BILL":"BILL HOLDINGS INC","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2178500236","content_text":"Marqeta Inc. $(MQ)$ said Wednesday that it has struck a new partnership with Bill.com Holdings Inc. $(BILL.UK)$ through which Marqeta will provide card-issuing technology that can be used by Bill.com's financial-institution partners. \nMarqeta's technology will \"power new innovative commercial card products for Bill.com's financial institution customers,\" the company said in a release. Marqeta offers application programming interfaces that make it easier for companies to build out card programs, while Bill.com seeks to help small- and medium-sized businesses automate accounts payable and other business functions. \nThe partnership will help Bill.com customers \"streamline payments and process payments faster,\" Marqeta Chief Executive Jason Gardner said in a release. Bill.com Chief Executive René Lacerte added that the offering will give clients \"enhanced financial operations capabilities, enabling faster and easier payment offerings.\" Marqeta shares are up 13.3% in morning trading Wednesday, and they've gained 36.8% over the past three months as the S&P 500 has risen 4.0%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126819130,"gmtCreate":1624550715120,"gmtModify":1634004454138,"author":{"id":"3553000140186733","authorId":"3553000140186733","name":"AaronSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e613e568575b478aa6932eab586da48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553000140186733","idStr":"3553000140186733"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440262882e962ca7cab85b1e5ecb77d1","width":"720","height":"1796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126819130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126837835,"gmtCreate":1624550664727,"gmtModify":1634004455960,"author":{"id":"3553000140186733","authorId":"3553000140186733","name":"AaronSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e613e568575b478aa6932eab586da48","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553000140186733","idStr":"3553000140186733"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126837835","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p>\n<p>Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p>\n<p>Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p>\n<p>And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p>\n<p>While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p>\n<p><b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p>\n<p><b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p>\n<p>Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p>\n<p>Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p>\n<p>Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p>\n<p>What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p>\n<p><b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p>\n<p>Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p>\n<p>Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p>\n<p><b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p>\n<p>For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p>\n<p>The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p>\n<p>Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p>\n<p><b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p>\n<p>Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p>\n<p>But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p>\n<p>Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}