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吴数
2021-01-08
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2021-01-08
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理想汽车投资人：为何我们持续重仓电动车
吴数
2021-01-07
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18:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"理想汽车投资人：为何我们持续重仓电动车","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2101293396","media":"21世纪商业评论","summary":"于2020年7月上市的理想汽车，当下股价较发行价增长超150%，市值高达260亿美元。这一轮热潮中，投了理想汽车5轮的蓝驰创投，无疑是赢家之一。4年来，蓝驰创投为何持续重仓智能电动车产业链？复盘蓝驰创投持续下注理想汽车的过程，有助于我们更好理解这个火热的市场。理想汽车创始人李想理想汽车在常州曾开了一个发布会，表示股东和客户愿意来可以，酒店得自理。","content":"<div>\n<p>押注整车企业有点晚了，智能汽车产业链上还有很多机会。文/ 杨松 编辑/ 鄢子为智能电动车赛道2020年备受追捧，特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏股价不断飙升。于2020年7月上市的理想汽车，当下股价较发行价增长超150%，市值高达260亿美元。这一轮热潮中，投了理想汽车5轮的蓝驰创投，无疑是赢家之一。4年来，蓝驰创投为何持续重仓智能电动车产业链？为何选择押注理想汽车？在蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇看来，第三方...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101071834437a449d56&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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鄢子为智能电动车赛道2020年备受追捧，特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏股价不断飙升。于2020年7月上市的理想汽车，当下股价较发行价增长超150%，市值高达260亿美元。这一轮热潮中，投了理想汽车5轮的蓝驰创投，无疑是赢家之一。4年来，蓝驰创投为何持续重仓智能电动车产业链？为何选择押注理想汽车？在蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇看来，第三方...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101071834437a449d56&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101071834437a449d56&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2101293396","content_text":"押注整车企业有点晚了，智能汽车产业链上还有很多机会。文/ 杨松 编辑/ 鄢子为智能电动车赛道2020年备受追捧，特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏股价不断飙升。于2020年7月上市的理想汽车，当下股价较发行价增长超150%，市值高达260亿美元。这一轮热潮中，投了理想汽车5轮的蓝驰创投，无疑是赢家之一。4年来，蓝驰创投为何持续重仓智能电动车产业链？为何选择押注理想汽车？在蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇看来，第三方自动驾驶公司提供的价值有限，数据积累较慢，整车企业的资源整合能力更强，可实现价值闭环。蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇理想汽车创始人李想打动朱天宇的地方在于，有远见，很早就摸清楚了行业规律；效率高，能做到及时交付。复盘蓝驰创投持续下注理想汽车的过程，有助于我们更好理解这个火热的市场。以下为朱天宇的自述（经编辑整理）：发现机会2016年之前，我们对投资新造车企业是有顾虑的。对早期投资机构来讲，押注一家整车企业充满挑战，因为它是一个资本密集型行业。我们早期的判断是，汽车产业变革的最核心驱动力是智能化而不是新能源化。智能化由需求驱动，新能源化是供给驱动。一旦新的能源供给形式叠加智能化，就能对载具产生巨大影响。智能化革命，对于人和物在空间内的流动方式，可能带来一次重新定义的机会。以车为例，当车从出行工具变成智能产品的时候，有大脑、小脑、眼睛、耳朵，变成了一个帮助人类去延伸感知体系的一个新工具。来源：理想汽车官网蓝驰创投始终沿着一条技术发展的主线去看待智能汽车行业，公司内部有句话叫“没有大数据，何谈人工智能”。在出行领域，自动驾驶是个典型的应用场景，数据生成和积累速度非常快。自动驾驶行业太复杂。我们当时看了一些做第三方自动驾驶的公司，团队履历非常漂亮，但提供的价值没能形成闭环，只能在感知层面做一些简单拼装，距离真正装车，实现决策和控制层面的闭环商用非常困难。数据是一个根，自动驾驶要做 一系列corner case（极端情况）的训练，不能只靠仿真，必须得靠更多实测的数据。在自动驾驶方向上，我们发现形成价值闭环是离不开整车厂的，因为整车厂的资源整合能力是这个价值链上最强的。蓝驰创投开始从整车角度去看自动驾驶和人工智能如何落地，早期我们调研了理想、小鹏、蔚来等企业。我们希望找到能把场景想清楚、需求想清楚、闭环想清楚、问题和挑战想清楚的整车企业。比如，我国的城市规划，人均土地面积，电网基础能支持什么量级的电桩分布，能否满足用户快捷的充电需求？十几年前，互联网行业“Copy to China”的模式能成功，造车这个事也能行吗？只有李想给我们的答案是最清晰的。看中李想蓝驰看中李想有三大原因：会花钱、效率高、有远见。在资金使用上，李想把钱用在刀刃上。我们投资方看重资本效率，因为市场迟早要回归到利润创造能力，不是看市值创造能力。李想知道怎么用更少的钱把事情做出来。他没有吹牛，已经成功两次了，泡泡网第一次，汽车之家第二次。理想汽车创始人李想理想汽车在常州曾开了一个发布会，表示股东和客户愿意来可以，酒店得自理。大家对这个没有不满，VIP客户在那儿吃盒饭，很开心，因为看他把钱都花在造车上了。该花钱的地方，李想也舍得投入。举个例子，为什么交付之前需要更多的资金？如果想确保产品质量，用5辆车去做路测还是10辆车去测，能发现的质量问题是不一样的。李想管理能力强，能把互联网产品经理、汽车工程师、在地面做汽车服务的人、销售的人放在一起，让他们好好共事。传统车企管理分散，每一个小部件都有一个ECU（电子控制单元），这和行业百年来形成协作分工体系相关。传统汽车行业现阶段是用分散式的架构和协作体系，和智能时代的集中控制、集中研发、快速迭代的架构体系比拼。刚创业时，李想就想清楚了如何将不同生产力组合起来，他清楚组织要长什么样，几种不同性格的人在一起怎么共事。该厂的工程师说，从没想到造车还可以这样高效率，以这样的信息沟通方式，因为过去整车厂都是分散式的。到理想汽车尽调的过程中，我印象特别深刻的是，他们负责生产设计和制造同事的办公室背后有两张大图，是时间表。他告诉我们：“这个时间表里的每一个点，都没有错失掉。”当时市场处在什么阶段？2016年，PPT造车正火。一个时间点都不错过，这是很难做到的。还有一点打动我们的是，他对未来行业的准确判断。李想对特斯拉的观察很透彻。有一次，李想、我和雪球的方三文在北京顺义的一家酒吧里聊天。我们复盘了几年前李想对特斯拉的判断，觉得非常准确。“别看 model x 的产量上不去，只要 model Y、model 3 的规划一旦上来，所有主机厂都会非常痛苦。”他几年前就做了这个预言，认为当特斯拉销量达到市场份额的5%时，很多人就没有利润了；达到10%时，很多人没有毛利；超过10%，很多人要退出市场。之前有人不相信，现在已经发生了。看清楚特斯拉的优势后，他反过来推演在中国市场要怎样做才能赢——如果选特斯拉竞争范围内的轿车车型，就很有挑战，得有差异化打法。李想的解决方案是，定位 SUV，这恰恰是现在中国市场增长最快的汽车品类。万亿赛道理想所在的智能汽车行业，是一个至少万亿美金的大赛道，会出现市值千亿美金的大公司。新造车企业要想提升价值，需要跨越几个大台阶：第一是销量的突破；第二是智能化；第三是运营模式的不断优化。比如，对于理想汽车来讲，现在最重要的是要把销量做上去，把智能模块做出来。前期特斯拉的股价走势，一度随着产能跌宕起伏而波动。当智能化体验带领特斯拉销量一骑绝尘的时候，市场才恍然大悟。但胜局已定，智能化体验背后，特斯拉软硬一体的自研壁垒已竖立。资本市场之前低估特斯拉，是因为销量少。但和传统车企不同的是，特斯拉把销量带来的造血能力，不遗余力地投入在研发上，优化智能化体验上。现在特斯拉股价高得惊人，资本市场狂热追捧。我们觉得，中国造车新势力可能也会经历这样恍然大悟的时刻，希望用的时间会少些。整体而言，市场够大，大家都有机会。接下来新造车企业要提防的是华为、苹果、亚马逊、Google等大科技公司。最大的风险是，你不知道竞争对手会从哪里杀出来，往往干掉你的都不是你的同行。汽车科技赛道上的创业者，尤其是从互联网和TMT行业进入的人来说，要有敬畏之心。汽车行业专业性强、产品周期长，和互联网的快速迭代不一样，他们要转换视角。传统汽车厂的资深人士创业，则需要具有商业闭环能力、工程能力和复合能力。我们不能单纯依赖那些算法刷分刷得高的选手。创始人的认知迭代速度，就是他的天花板，决定了公司的发展速度。对此，蓝驰有自己的“三段论”：创业者是不是“知道错、愿意改、改得快。”“知道错”这个事情，刷掉了90%的人，尤其是学霸，他们往往不觉得自己错了。知错后愿不愿意改？愿不愿意走出舒适区？9%的人又刷掉了。最后，还要改得快，这需要很强的自我认知、成就动机、和高度的自律。从投资视角来看，现在押注整车企业有点晚了。但是，整个智能汽车产业链上，还有很多机会，比如汽车电子的重构、数字化的过程，智能座舱和交互相关的输入输出需求。从长远来看，当车的智能座舱或者数字化交互界面形成生态的时候，结合衣、食、住、行、办公，会有一些具体应用场景，可能率先冒出一些应用。（作者：杨松 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11:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"目标价42美元！美国银行：予理想汽车“买入”评级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111949557","media":"智通财经","summary":"看好$理想汽车$的销量增长前景，$美国银行$予其“买入”评级，目标价42美元。另外，增程式电动车解决消费者对于电动汽车的隐忧，同时也被证明其在中国电动汽车市场的需求。该行还预计，理想汽车在中国电动汽车市场的份额将从2020年的3%增长到2023年的6%，因为它比其他传统汽车oem更注重提高用户体验，且公司不断获得低成本资本也将成为未来其股价上涨的又一催化剂。","content":"<p>看好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>的销量增长前景，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>予其“买入”评级，目标价42美元。</p><p>该行表示，预计公司销量在2020-2025年的复合年增长率是48%，这主要得益于电动汽车普及率上升、强劲的市场需求及销售渠道迅速扩张。另外，增程式电动车解决消费者对于电动汽车的隐忧，同时也被证明其在中国电动汽车市场的需求。该行还预计，理想汽车在中国电动汽车市场的份额将从2020年的3%增长到2023年的6%，因为它比其他传统汽车oem更注重提高用户体验，且公司不断获得低成本资本也将成为未来其股价上涨的又一催化剂。</p><p>展望未来，该行预计，从2022年到2024年，理想汽车将每年推出一款车型，并逐步涉足全尺寸和紧凑型SUV领域。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99f3a11bd02563ecdc923ab2fea86438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/390286.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>看好理想汽车的销量增长前景，美国银行予其“买入”评级，目标价42美元。该行表示，预计公司销量在2020-2025年的复合年增长率是48%，这主要得益于电动汽车普及率上升、强劲的市场需求及销售渠道迅速扩张。另外，增程式电动车解决消费者对于电动汽车的隐忧，同时也被证明其在中国电动汽车市场的需求。该行还预计，理想汽车在中国电动汽车市场的份额将从2020年的3%增长到2023年的6%，因为它比其他传统汽车...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/390286.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/390286.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1111949557","content_text":"看好理想汽车的销量增长前景，美国银行予其“买入”评级，目标价42美元。该行表示，预计公司销量在2020-2025年的复合年增长率是48%，这主要得益于电动汽车普及率上升、强劲的市场需求及销售渠道迅速扩张。另外，增程式电动车解决消费者对于电动汽车的隐忧，同时也被证明其在中国电动汽车市场的需求。该行还预计，理想汽车在中国电动汽车市场的份额将从2020年的3%增长到2023年的6%，因为它比其他传统汽车oem更注重提高用户体验，且公司不断获得低成本资本也将成为未来其股价上涨的又一催化剂。展望未来，该行预计，从2022年到2024年，理想汽车将每年推出一款车型，并逐步涉足全尺寸和紧凑型SUV领域。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336240169,"gmtCreate":1610111401751,"gmtModify":1703742759966,"author":{"id":"3549939126696881","authorId":"3549939126696881","name":"吴数","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549939126696881","authorIdStr":"3549939126696881"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"坚定持有","listText":"坚定持有","text":"坚定持有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336240169","repostId":"2101293396","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
