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ZaiZai
2023-10-19
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
美联储同僚鸽声缭绕，鲍威尔可能要给点“鹰派冲击”！
ZaiZai
2021-08-18
雷这么大吗。。。
涂鸦智能跌超10%，Q2净利润不及预期
ZaiZai
2020-11-13
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
直播：电商新旧格局交替，谁是终极王者？
ZaiZai
2020-10-09
$洪恩教育(IH)$
怎么还不上市啊
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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17:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储同僚鸽声缭绕，鲍威尔可能要给点“鹰派冲击”！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2376288258","media":"金十数据","summary":"市场在很大程度上预计美联储11月将维持利率不变，但他们寻求鲍威尔的确认。经济学家认为，鲍威尔可能相对于他的一些同事更加鹰派......","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场在很大程度上预计美联储11月将维持利率不变，但他们寻求鲍威尔的确认。经济学家认为，鲍威尔可能相对于他的一些同事更加鹰派......</p></blockquote><p>美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨0点发表重要讲话，他的任务是让市场相信美联储将致力于继续打击通胀，但现在可能需要稍微减少力度。</p><p>尽管近期通胀数据一直在改善，但美国国债收益率却一直在飙升，为关于货币政策走向发出了<strong>矛盾的信号</strong>。市场在很大程度上预计美联储将维持利率不变，但他们将寻求鲍威尔确认和澄清官员是如何看待当前状况和长期趋势的。</p><p>经济学家表示，鲍威尔在周五的讲话中<strong>可能会更加鹰派</strong>，至少相对于他的一些同事的讲话来说是这样。</p><p><strong>鲍威尔的发言框架</strong></p><p>CIBC资本市场首席经济学家艾弗里·申菲尔德（Avery Shenfeld）认为，尽管FOMC的一些成员预计加息已经结束，但鲍威尔<strong>不会采取明确立场</strong>。</p><p>美联储在9月会议上将利率稳定在5.25%-5.5%，但11月或12月会议上再加息25个基点的可能性仍存。</p><p>申菲尔德表示，他很困惑为什么许多美联储官员似乎放弃了这一预测，而与此同时经济报告却给显示7月至9月的季度经济增长意外强劲。他调侃道，美联储对未来经济放缓的预测“听起来像是一个不断被打破的记录，经济放缓总是一个季度一个季度地被推迟”。</p><p>威尔明顿信托公司首席经济学家卢克·蒂利（Luke Tilley）表示：“鲍威尔总是会回击任何有关他们需要保持谨慎的说法，这是可以理解的。我只是希望他继续谈论第三季度经济和消费惊人的韧性，这被视为通胀的上行风险，并足以让我们继续谈论保持警惕的必要性。”</p><p>从本质上讲，蒂利预计鲍威尔的信息将分为<strong>三个部分</strong>：美联储需要迅速提高利率，而它确实做到了；它必须找到一个峰值水平，这是当前辩论的一部分；并且需要弄清楚利率需要保持在这么高的水平多久才能使通胀回到2%的目标。</p><p>他说，“实际上，他们的最终目标是保持金融状况紧张，从而降低通胀。鲍威尔将利用这个框架，即使他对11月1日（美联储的下一次利率决定）或12月持鸽派立场，他也将在第三个问题持鹰派立场，即在多长时间内将利率保持在如此高水平。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ef9391f9b651c10a7835753f8d1c2c\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><strong>加息只是推迟而非结束？</strong></p><p>此外，市场将热衷于听到<strong>鲍威尔关于近期10年期美国国债收益率上涨的讨论</strong>，该收益率自7月以来已上涨约90个基点，逼近5%（16年来的最高点）。</p><p>FAO Economics首席经济学家罗伯特·布鲁斯卡（Robert Brusca）认为，收益率的上涨表明债券投资者开始怀疑美联储抗击通胀的能力。</p><p>申菲尔德不同意这种说法。他表示，收益率上升表明市场“正在接受美联储在上次会议上所说的话”，即利率必须在更长时间内保持高位才能降低通胀。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>首席美国经济学家马修·卢塞蒂（Matthew Luzzetti）表示，鲍威尔<strong>将同意其他一些美联储官员的说法，即美联储可能在11月暂停加息</strong>，债券市场正在为他们做一些货币紧缩的工作。</p><p>另一方面，鉴于最近的一批数据“似乎确实增加了他们在经济增长、劳动力市场和通胀方面取得多大进展的不确定性”，鲍威尔将不得不<strong>对12月会议的政策预期采取相对更强硬的语气</strong>，”他补充道。</p><p>Evercore ISI全球政策和央行策略主管Krishna Guha在一份客户报告中称，鲍威尔“将呼应这样的信息，即数据强于预期，但收益率也出现了大幅波动，这导致金融环境收紧，因此<strong>11月不需要紧急出台政策回应，美联储可以采取观望态度。”</strong></p><p>但Guha也指出，随着通胀和经济增长双双走弱，<strong>美联储现在按兵不动只是2024年“额外降息”的“首付”。</strong></p><p><strong>“冷静中立的领导人形象”</strong></p><p>当前，美联储内部存在明显分歧。申菲尔德指出，特别是从美联储对2025年底利率的预测来看，（分歧）“到处都是”。他说，“存在非常不同的观点，这是可以理解的，因为我们收到了通胀降温而增长强劲的模糊信号。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d5d4298481f963283b1b9a84526a30\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"874\"/></p><p>最近几天，“更高更长”（Higher for longer）已成为非官方口号，费城联储主希拉克本周早些时候专门提到了这个词，表达了他对货币政策前景的看法。</p><p>哈克和其他几位美联储官员都主张，至少在不久的将来推迟加息，以权衡即将公布的数据的影响。美联储副主席杰斐逊和理事沃勒也在本月早些时候发表了讲话。沃勒表示，美联储在进一步调整利率之前可以“等待、观察”。</p><p>鲍威尔预计也会加入这一行列，但他的讲话将充满关于在对抗通胀的斗争中不要自满的警告。</p><p>LPL Financial首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇（Jeffrey Roach）表示：“<strong>鲍威尔必须向投资者展示冷静中立的领导人形象，并允许其他人表现的更加激进</strong>。他们不会宣布胜利，这就是鲍威尔将继续发表强硬言论的原因之一。”</p><p>周三，纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>重复了另一个熟悉的口头禅，即美联储将不得不在一段时间内保持“限制性政策立场”以应对通胀。</p><p>与其他发言者类似，鲍威尔可能会<strong>重申美联储对数据的依赖</strong>，此前美联储已11次加息，总计5.25个百分点，将基准借款利率推高至22年来的最高水平。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储同僚鸽声缭绕，鲍威尔可能要给点“鹰派冲击”！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储同僚鸽声缭绕，鲍威尔可能要给点“鹰派冲击”！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-19 17:39 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=124614&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场在很大程度上预计美联储11月将维持利率不变，但他们寻求鲍威尔的确认。经济学家认为，鲍威尔可能相对于他的一些同事更加鹰派......美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨0点发表重要讲话，他的任务是让市场相信美联储将致力于继续打击通胀，但现在可能需要稍微减少力度。尽管近期通胀数据一直在改善，但美国国债收益率却一直在飙升，为关于货币政策走向发出了矛盾的信号。市场在很大程度上预计美联储将维持利率不变，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=124614&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/458a642566ff34b798cee65811d6551f","relate_stocks":{"OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4588":"碎股","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=124614&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2376288258","content_text":"市场在很大程度上预计美联储11月将维持利率不变，但他们寻求鲍威尔的确认。经济学家认为，鲍威尔可能相对于他的一些同事更加鹰派......美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨0点发表重要讲话，他的任务是让市场相信美联储将致力于继续打击通胀，但现在可能需要稍微减少力度。尽管近期通胀数据一直在改善，但美国国债收益率却一直在飙升，为关于货币政策走向发出了矛盾的信号。市场在很大程度上预计美联储将维持利率不变，但他们将寻求鲍威尔确认和澄清官员是如何看待当前状况和长期趋势的。经济学家表示，鲍威尔在周五的讲话中可能会更加鹰派，至少相对于他的一些同事的讲话来说是这样。鲍威尔的发言框架CIBC资本市场首席经济学家艾弗里·申菲尔德（Avery Shenfeld）认为，尽管FOMC的一些成员预计加息已经结束，但鲍威尔不会采取明确立场。美联储在9月会议上将利率稳定在5.25%-5.5%，但11月或12月会议上再加息25个基点的可能性仍存。申菲尔德表示，他很困惑为什么许多美联储官员似乎放弃了这一预测，而与此同时经济报告却给显示7月至9月的季度经济增长意外强劲。他调侃道，美联储对未来经济放缓的预测“听起来像是一个不断被打破的记录，经济放缓总是一个季度一个季度地被推迟”。威尔明顿信托公司首席经济学家卢克·蒂利（Luke Tilley）表示：“鲍威尔总是会回击任何有关他们需要保持谨慎的说法，这是可以理解的。我只是希望他继续谈论第三季度经济和消费惊人的韧性，这被视为通胀的上行风险，并足以让我们继续谈论保持警惕的必要性。”从本质上讲，蒂利预计鲍威尔的信息将分为三个部分：美联储需要迅速提高利率，而它确实做到了；它必须找到一个峰值水平，这是当前辩论的一部分；并且需要弄清楚利率需要保持在这么高的水平多久才能使通胀回到2%的目标。他说，“实际上，他们的最终目标是保持金融状况紧张，从而降低通胀。鲍威尔将利用这个框架，即使他对11月1日（美联储的下一次利率决定）或12月持鸽派立场，他也将在第三个问题持鹰派立场，即在多长时间内将利率保持在如此高水平。 加息只是推迟而非结束？此外，市场将热衷于听到鲍威尔关于近期10年期美国国债收益率上涨的讨论，该收益率自7月以来已上涨约90个基点，逼近5%（16年来的最高点）。FAO Economics首席经济学家罗伯特·布鲁斯卡（Robert Brusca）认为，收益率的上涨表明债券投资者开始怀疑美联储抗击通胀的能力。申菲尔德不同意这种说法。他表示，收益率上升表明市场“正在接受美联储在上次会议上所说的话”，即利率必须在更长时间内保持高位才能降低通胀。德意志银行首席美国经济学家马修·卢塞蒂（Matthew Luzzetti）表示，鲍威尔将同意其他一些美联储官员的说法，即美联储可能在11月暂停加息，债券市场正在为他们做一些货币紧缩的工作。另一方面，鉴于最近的一批数据“似乎确实增加了他们在经济增长、劳动力市场和通胀方面取得多大进展的不确定性”，鲍威尔将不得不对12月会议的政策预期采取相对更强硬的语气，”他补充道。Evercore ISI全球政策和央行策略主管Krishna Guha在一份客户报告中称，鲍威尔“将呼应这样的信息，即数据强于预期，但收益率也出现了大幅波动，这导致金融环境收紧，因此11月不需要紧急出台政策回应，美联储可以采取观望态度。”但Guha也指出，随着通胀和经济增长双双走弱，美联储现在按兵不动只是2024年“额外降息”的“首付”。“冷静中立的领导人形象”当前，美联储内部存在明显分歧。申菲尔德指出，特别是从美联储对2025年底利率的预测来看，（分歧）“到处都是”。他说，“存在非常不同的观点，这是可以理解的，因为我们收到了通胀降温而增长强劲的模糊信号。”最近几天，“更高更长”（Higher for longer）已成为非官方口号，费城联储主希拉克本周早些时候专门提到了这个词，表达了他对货币政策前景的看法。哈克和其他几位美联储官员都主张，至少在不久的将来推迟加息，以权衡即将公布的数据的影响。美联储副主席杰斐逊和理事沃勒也在本月早些时候发表了讲话。沃勒表示，美联储在进一步调整利率之前可以“等待、观察”。鲍威尔预计也会加入这一行列，但他的讲话将充满关于在对抗通胀的斗争中不要自满的警告。LPL Financial首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇（Jeffrey Roach）表示：“鲍威尔必须向投资者展示冷静中立的领导人形象，并允许其他人表现的更加激进。他们不会宣布胜利，这就是鲍威尔将继续发表强硬言论的原因之一。”周三，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯重复了另一个熟悉的口头禅，即美联储将不得不在一段时间内保持“限制性政策立场”以应对通胀。与其他发言者类似，鲍威尔可能会重申美联储对数据的依赖，此前美联储已11次加息，总计5.25个百分点，将基准借款利率推高至22年来的最高水平。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831141991,"gmtCreate":1629296612513,"gmtModify":1629296612513,"author":{"id":"3549509389685025","authorId":"3549509389685025","name":"ZaiZai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a3c476acff9391692796e5de410ef42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"雷这么大吗。。。","listText":"雷这么大吗。。。","text":"雷这么大吗。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831141991","repostId":"2160073447","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2160073447","pubTimestamp":1629293743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2160073447?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 21:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"涂鸦智能跌超10%，Q2净利润不及预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160073447","media":"新浪财经","summary":"涂鸦智能（TUYA.N）跌超10%，Q2净利润不及预期。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">涂鸦智能</a>（TUYA.N）跌超10%，Q2净利润不及预期。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>涂鸦智能跌超10%，Q2净利润不及预期</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb1eb89904e532b247480afe0edb9b7c","relate_stocks":{"TUYA":"涂鸦智能"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-08-18/doc-ikqcfncc3643812.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2160073447","content_text":"涂鸦智能（TUYA.N）跌超10%，Q2净利润不及预期。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304462914,"gmtCreate":1605280633238,"gmtModify":1703837262191,"author":{"id":"3549509389685025","authorId":"3549509389685025","name":"ZaiZai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a3c476acff9391692796e5de410ef42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304462914","repostId":"16044702932752","repostType":17,"repost":{"id":384,"live_id":"16044702932752","type":0,"live_form":0,"category_id":5,"category_name":"大咖热评","material_type":0,"regions":[1],"title":"电商新旧格局交替，谁是终极王者？","title_en":"","status":3,"abstract_en":[],"description_html":"“双十一”巨头提前交战。锁定销量，截胡流量的背后，是淘宝、京东在应对抖音，微信和拼多多入局的冲击。一场争夺流量的决战，新老玩家如何攻防？<div><br></div><div>【讲师介绍】</div><div>Grace Zhang：贝瑞研究资深分析师，特许金融分析师(CFA)十年。\n杨璐铭：贝瑞研究新锐分析师。美国Top10金融硕士。</div><div>郭嘉：贝瑞研究主持人。知名媒体人，曾在Bloomberg 等主流媒体从事新闻工作。 </div><div><br></div><div>【内容要点】 </div><div>- 抖音、快手直播电商兴起，电商市场旧格局谁最受伤害？ </div><div>- 电商行业头部玩家现状分析：阿里，京东，拼多多，美团 </div><div>- 同城零售和下沉市场能否改变目前的电商格局？ </div><div>- 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