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昵什么称啊

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昵什么称啊

2022-12-09

$高途(GOTU)$ 看看有没有人气，请教专家，手上几手 EDU1 20221216 2.5 CALL，这个应该怎么处理，是等着自动行权么？行权价格是2.5还是25（之前新东方进行过10合1的合股）。 Call是在合股之前买的。

昵什么称啊

2022-12-09

$EDU1 20221216 2.5 CALL$ $EDU1 20221216 2.5 CALL$ 啦啦啦

昵什么称啊

2022-12-09

$新东方(EDU)$ 现在如果有两2手$EDU1 20221216 2.5 CALL$ ，应该怎么处理，到期自动行权的话，是按照2.5的价格行权么？

昵什么称啊

2022-11-15

车型得下探

92天，蔚来亏了41个亿

昵什么称啊

2021-02-24

$美国航空(AAL)$美国航空的保证金要求跟其他股票不一样么？为什么账户显示保证金余额还有很多，但是可以购买余额确是0？账户的杠杆率也只有1出头一点点。

昵什么称啊

2020-11-24

$美国航空(AAL)$疫苗出来了，至少要突破前期15.1的高点吧。[看涨]

昵什么称啊

2020-11-24

$理想汽车(LI)$小鹏已经疯了，理想赶紧也要跟上啊。

昵什么称啊

2020-11-24

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$这是疯了么？？？？

昵什么称啊

2020-11-13

真的要疯啊$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$

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&nbsp;</a>现在如果有两2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/EDU1 20221216 2.5 CALL\">$EDU1 20221216 2.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>，应该怎么处理，到期自动行权的话，是按照2.5的价格行权么？","text":"$新东方(EDU)$ 现在如果有两2手$EDU1 20221216 2.5 CALL$ ，应该怎么处理，到期自动行权的话，是按照2.5的价格行权么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629238020","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573159661791245","authorId":"3573159661791245","name":"墨漠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573159661791245","authorIdStr":"3573159661791245"},"content":"原本两手是2.5X200。现在应该是按25X20","text":"原本两手是2.5X200。现在应该是按25X20","html":"原本两手是2.5X200。现在应该是按25X20"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667942671,"gmtCreate":1668524205294,"gmtModify":1668524206968,"author":{"id":"3549360304191362","authorId":"3549360304191362","name":"昵什么称啊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549360304191362","authorIdStr":"3549360304191362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"车型得下探","listText":"车型得下探","text":"车型得下探","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667942671","repostId":"2283231566","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2283231566","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668468394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2283231566?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-15 07:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"92天，蔚来亏了41个亿","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2283231566","media":"创事记","summary":"盈利困境尚未改善，蔚来又吹响了扩张的号角。好的一面是，蔚来长达四个季度的增长瓶颈终于被打破，第三季度累计交付突破3万辆，交付带动营收规模大增至130亿元，环比上个季度增长近3成。不利的一面是，在交付和营收齐飞的同时，蔚来再次刷新了其上市以来的季度亏损记录，第三季度净亏41亿元，较第二季度亏损扩大近5成。","content":"<html><body><p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"364\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/114/w550h364/20221115/1824-b45beb9a39f7288a8149b1213b4d412e.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n<h2>盈利困境尚未改善，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>又吹响了扩张的号角。</h2>\n</figure>\n</p><p><span>欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号：techsina </span></p>\n<p>文/万博</p>\n<p>来源：赛博汽车（ID:Cyber-car)</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>经营情况的A面和B面，随着第三季度财报出炉，一起向外界展现出来。</p>\n<p>好的一面是，蔚来长达四个季度的增长瓶颈终于被打破，第三季度累计交付突破3万辆，交付带动营收规模大增至130亿元，环比上个季度增长近3成。</p>\n<p>不利的一面是，在交付和营收齐飞的同时，蔚来再次刷新了其上市以来的季度亏损记录，第三季度净亏41亿元，较第二季度亏损扩大近5成。</p>\n<p>其在上个季度坚持的15万辆年度交付目标，也在第四季度的展望中，无奈放弃。</p>\n<p>详细情况，一起来看。</p>\n<p><strong>01</strong></p>\n<p><strong>蔚来财报关键词：增长和亏损</strong></p>\n<p>先来看看蔚来财报的基本面。</p>\n<p>从营收和交付的角度来说，蔚来第三季度的经营情况向好，数据表现可圈可点。</p>\n<p>先看营收，今年第三季度，蔚来实现营收130亿元，较上年同期增加32.6%，环比今年第二季度增加26.3%，环比增长幅度创下近7个季度之最。其中，来自汽车业务的营收达到119.33亿元，同比增加38.2%，环比上个季度增加24.7%。</p>\n<p>营收增长的推动力，主要是交付量的增加，蔚来第三季度累计交付首次突破3万辆门槛，来到了31607辆，较上年同期增加29.3%，环比今年第二季度增加26.1%。</p>\n<p>除了数据之外，营收和交付数据的更大亮点在于，蔚来经历了连续4个季度的增长瓶颈期之后，终于在这个季度实现了突破。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"330\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/80/w550h330/20221115/9b4b-b9beb18fcadd1351289de01ba0eb5b14.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>随着交付水平的增加，蔚来销售成本也在同步增长，数据显示，今年第三季度蔚来销售成本为112.67亿元，较上年同期增加44.2%，环比上个季度增加25.9%。其中，汽车销售成本为99.78亿元，较上年同期增加41%，较今年第二季度增加25%。</p>\n<p>从数据来看，销售成本的同比增长幅度要远远大于交付和营收的增长，蔚来在财报中给出的解释是，除了交付水平增加的原因之外，由于电池价格的提升，单车的电池成本较去年更高，造成单车销售成本的增加。</p>\n<p>以上，就是蔚来第三季度财报的A面，很明显，增长是主旋律。但隐藏在增长背后的B面，更值得一看。</p>\n<p>所谓B面，其实就是蔚来盈利能力，并不乐观。</p>\n<p>财报显示，蔚来在第三季度的净亏损，来到了惊人的41.1亿元，几乎是去年同期亏损的4倍，较上个季度也增加了近5成左右。同时，这也是蔚来自美股上市以来，季度亏损的最高记录。简单换算一下，在第三季度，蔚来每天亏掉的钱就超过4600万。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"328\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/78/w550h328/20221115/b31a-2a2bb45ba13a31d75111cf06fbdd02e7.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>净亏损扩大的背后，是蔚来盈利能力的桎梏始终没有被打破。数据显示，蔚来在第三季度的毛利率为13.3%，较上个季度的13%几乎没有质的提升。汽车销售毛利率为16.4%，较上个季度略有下降。</p>\n<p>事实上，从去年最后一个季度，毛利率跌破20%之后，蔚来的毛利率就始终处于低位运行。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"330\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/80/w550h330/20221115/09e8-774ec66160407be498e9d931985a33de.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>除了盈利堪忧之外，因为疫情等因素，蔚来此前坚持的年度15万辆的交付目标，也在无声中事实性放弃。</p>\n<p>财报披露，蔚来第四季度的交付目标为4.3-4.8万辆，就按照最高的4.8万辆来算，加上前三个季度累计交付的8.2万辆，蔚来今年的交付水平最高也只能达到14万辆。</p>\n<p><strong>02</strong></p>\n<p><strong>要盈利，李斌很乐观</strong></p>\n<p>李斌的乐观态度，主要集中在大家关注的毛利率和盈利目标上。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"367\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20221115/502d-55fd9a17e05d2a95ab98b28c2d0b4f48.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>分析师会议上，李斌表示，在毛利率方面，因为电池价格的原因，蔚来在今年确实有挑战。而且在第四季度，电池价格对毛利率的影响依然存在，对此，蔚来自己也无能为力。</p>\n<p>不过，从长期的角度看，李斌认为，电池原材料价格，尤其是锂价一定会降下来。至于锂价下降能够对蔚来毛利率提升起到什么作用，李斌用一个简单的模型来回答：</p>\n<p>“碳酸锂每10万的价格增长对我们（蔚来）毛利率的影响差不多在两个点左右，所以如果价格从60万降到40万，那我们就有4个点的毛利出来；如果价格能降到合理的十几万的水平，大体上能给我们释放8个点的毛利出来”。</p>\n<p>按照蔚来目前13.3%的毛利率来看，如果这个模型成立，蔚来最终的毛利率会在20%以上。</p>\n<p>而在此之前，市场对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电动车行业给出的预期稳态毛利率在20%-25%之间。而在分析师会议上，李斌表示，对于这样的一个毛利率水平，从长期来看，要实现并不是一个大问题。但同时，在这个问题上，李斌还前置了一个假设：</p>\n<div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div><p>“电池能够回到正常的、理性的价格”。</p>\n<p>至于蔚来实现收支平衡的指引，李斌将时间点定在了明年第四季度，当然，这其中也有一些不确定性。这些不确定性因素中，研发支出是主要的一环。</p>\n<p>而从财报的数据来看，庞大的研发支出，也确实是影响蔚来盈利的重要因素。</p>\n<p>今年第三季度，蔚来研发支出增加至29.45亿元，较去年同期增加146.8%，环比上个季度增加37%。同时，这个数据也创下上市以来的最高记录。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"325\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/75/w550h325/20221115/2dc1-12eb4c610b2c605d19a60dda57570043.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>研发资金主要的流向，李斌在分析师会议上的只言片语来看，主要有以下几个：</p>\n<p>首先是新业务，主要包括已经确认的两个新品牌及旗下新车型、芯片、电池和手机业务等。</p>\n<p>按照计划，蔚来明年在这部分新业务的研发支出规模，大概在30-40亿元之间，平均每个季度10亿元左右。</p>\n<p>李斌表示，如果不包括上述的这些研发支出，（明年第四季度）实现收支平衡是有信心的。</p>\n<p>其次则是新车型的研发，李斌表示，明年上半年，蔚来会面向市场推出5款车型。而且在这些车型中，将有一款车型会对标Model Y。</p>\n<p><strong>03</strong></p>\n<p><strong>蔚来要进入下一个急速扩张期？</strong></p>\n<p>毫无疑问的是，从蔚来的研发支出和最近一段时间的动作来看，其正在从市场和产业链两个方面，布局一张大网，寻求下一个增量。</p>\n<p>市场布局方面，主要有两个方向。</p>\n<p>其一，基于车型价位的市场垂直布局。公开消息显示，蔚来正在筹划的两个新品牌中，一个主攻20-30万元的中端市场，一个则下沉到了20万元以下的中低端市场。</p>\n<p>其二，基于海外市场的横向发展，就在上个月，蔚来在德国首都柏林举行了NIO Berlin蔚来欧洲发布会，正式吹响大规模进军欧洲市场的号角。虽然在此之前，蔚来已经在挪威登陆，但这次的声势明显更大，落地速度也不同以往。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"310\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/60/w550h310/20221115/7696-0167e79936a737974dc27d41dcee3c53.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>毫无疑问的是，从蔚来的研发支出和最近一段时间的动作来看，其正在从市场和产业链两个方面，布局一张大网，寻求下一个增量。</p>\n<p>市场布局方面，主要有两个方向。</p>\n<p>其一，基于车型价位的市场垂直布局。公开消息显示，蔚来正在筹划的两个新品牌中，一个主攻20-30万元的中端市场，一个则下沉到了20万元以下的中低端市场。</p>\n<p>其二，基于海外市场的横向发展，就在上个月，蔚来在德国首都柏林举行了NIO Berlin蔚来欧洲发布会，正式吹响大规模进军欧洲市场的号角。虽然在此之前，蔚来已经在挪威登陆，但这次的声势明显更大，落地速度也不同以往。</p>\n<p>产业链方面，蔚来涉及的环节已经涵盖智能电动车的方方面面，从智能驾驶软件算法到计算芯片硬件，再到包括电池自研自产在内的三电均有涉猎，甚至还有个人移动终端与汽车之间的生态布局。</p>\n<p>纵观这种布局，蔚来正在走的路，是在向一个汽车集团的发展靠近，比如用不同的品牌打通不同价位的市场，采用上下游垂直整合的方式来降本增效等等。</p>\n<p>所以，这自然也是蔚来跻身主流车企的一个机会，但历史经验表明，从一个单一汽车品牌走向多品牌的汽车集团，不会是一路坦途。</p>\n<p>至少在当下这个节点，蔚来要面临的不确定性不少。</p>\n<p>大环境来看，全球经济下行已经是一个共识，而外部经济环境恶化造成的影响必然是多方面的。</p>\n<p>从市场角度讲，经济下行受冲击最严重的，往往是处于经济体纺锤中间的大部分中产群体，而这部分人，也是30万元以下汽车市场的主要消费群体。蔚来的两个大众品牌能否在市场需求收缩的状态下博得一席之位，存在很大的未知数。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"296\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/46/w550h296/20221115/2e55-0c8f4721db7e26dee052d55319aa1a59.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>另外，30万元以下的市场，也是各大车企竞争最激烈的鏖战中心，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等车企在这部分市场的竞争优势有目共睹，作为新品牌，如果不能在车型上市就一炮打响，未来要面对的现实很可能就是无人问津，这样的例子，在市场上屡见不鲜。</p>\n<p>从资本的角度来讲，经济下行也意味着资本收缩，投资趋于冷静保守。而蔚来目前的状态，还处于净亏损的阶段。从财报来看，蔚来账上的现金及现金等价物，已经从上个季度末的544亿元下降到514亿元，处于近四个季度以来的最低水平。</p>\n<p>虽然李斌在分析师会议上表示，蔚来的现金储备没有问题，但长期的亏损再加上盈利的不确定性，在这个关键节点铺这么大的盘子，还是有一定的风险。</p>\n<p>毕竟现在想要从资本市场上输血，已经没有过去那么容易了。</p>\n<p>三季度财报透露信息来看，蔚来已经打响了全线战役，包括中低端品牌、自研芯片、自研自产电池、手机业务、海外市场等都已经进入事实性投入阶段。</p>\n<p>在整个市场承压的背景下，蔚来将战线拉的这么长，只能说风险不小，勇气可嘉。</p>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/>\n</div>\n</body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n92天，蔚来亏了41个亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-15 07:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2022-11-15/doc-imqmmthc4604593.d.html?vt=4><strong>创事记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>盈利困境尚未改善，蔚来又吹响了扩张的号角。\n\n欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号：techsina \n文/万博\n来源：赛博汽车（ID:Cyber-car)\n蔚来经营情况的A面和B面，随着第三季度财报出炉，一起向外界展现出来。\n好的一面是，蔚来长达四个季度的增长瓶颈终于被打破，第三季度累计交付突破3万辆，交付带动营收规模大增至130亿元，环比上个季度增长近3成。\n不利的一面是，在交付和营收齐飞的同时，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2022-11-15/doc-imqmmthc4604593.d.html?vt=4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/114/w550h364/20221115/1824-b45beb9a39f7288a8149b1213b4d412e.png/w120h90l50t19d6.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4509":"腾讯概念","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK1588":"回港中概股","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2022-11-15/doc-imqmmthc4604593.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2283231566","content_text":"盈利困境尚未改善，蔚来又吹响了扩张的号角。\n\n欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号：techsina \n文/万博\n来源：赛博汽车（ID:Cyber-car)\n蔚来经营情况的A面和B面，随着第三季度财报出炉，一起向外界展现出来。\n好的一面是，蔚来长达四个季度的增长瓶颈终于被打破，第三季度累计交付突破3万辆，交付带动营收规模大增至130亿元，环比上个季度增长近3成。\n不利的一面是，在交付和营收齐飞的同时，蔚来再次刷新了其上市以来的季度亏损记录，第三季度净亏41亿元，较第二季度亏损扩大近5成。\n其在上个季度坚持的15万辆年度交付目标，也在第四季度的展望中，无奈放弃。\n详细情况，一起来看。\n01\n蔚来财报关键词：增长和亏损\n先来看看蔚来财报的基本面。\n从营收和交付的角度来说，蔚来第三季度的经营情况向好，数据表现可圈可点。\n先看营收，今年第三季度，蔚来实现营收130亿元，较上年同期增加32.6%，环比今年第二季度增加26.3%，环比增长幅度创下近7个季度之最。其中，来自汽车业务的营收达到119.33亿元，同比增加38.2%，环比上个季度增加24.7%。\n营收增长的推动力，主要是交付量的增加，蔚来第三季度累计交付首次突破3万辆门槛，来到了31607辆，较上年同期增加29.3%，环比今年第二季度增加26.1%。\n除了数据之外，营收和交付数据的更大亮点在于，蔚来经历了连续4个季度的增长瓶颈期之后，终于在这个季度实现了突破。\n\n\n\n随着交付水平的增加，蔚来销售成本也在同步增长，数据显示，今年第三季度蔚来销售成本为112.67亿元，较上年同期增加44.2%，环比上个季度增加25.9%。其中，汽车销售成本为99.78亿元，较上年同期增加41%，较今年第二季度增加25%。\n从数据来看，销售成本的同比增长幅度要远远大于交付和营收的增长，蔚来在财报中给出的解释是，除了交付水平增加的原因之外，由于电池价格的提升，单车的电池成本较去年更高，造成单车销售成本的增加。\n以上，就是蔚来第三季度财报的A面，很明显，增长是主旋律。但隐藏在增长背后的B面，更值得一看。\n所谓B面，其实就是蔚来盈利能力，并不乐观。\n财报显示，蔚来在第三季度的净亏损，来到了惊人的41.1亿元，几乎是去年同期亏损的4倍，较上个季度也增加了近5成左右。同时，这也是蔚来自美股上市以来，季度亏损的最高记录。简单换算一下，在第三季度，蔚来每天亏掉的钱就超过4600万。\n\n\n\n净亏损扩大的背后，是蔚来盈利能力的桎梏始终没有被打破。数据显示，蔚来在第三季度的毛利率为13.3%，较上个季度的13%几乎没有质的提升。汽车销售毛利率为16.4%，较上个季度略有下降。\n事实上，从去年最后一个季度，毛利率跌破20%之后，蔚来的毛利率就始终处于低位运行。\n\n\n\n除了盈利堪忧之外，因为疫情等因素，蔚来此前坚持的年度15万辆的交付目标，也在无声中事实性放弃。\n财报披露，蔚来第四季度的交付目标为4.3-4.8万辆，就按照最高的4.8万辆来算，加上前三个季度累计交付的8.2万辆，蔚来今年的交付水平最高也只能达到14万辆。\n02\n要盈利，李斌很乐观\n李斌的乐观态度，主要集中在大家关注的毛利率和盈利目标上。\n\n\n\n分析师会议上，李斌表示，在毛利率方面，因为电池价格的原因，蔚来在今年确实有挑战。而且在第四季度，电池价格对毛利率的影响依然存在，对此，蔚来自己也无能为力。\n不过，从长期的角度看，李斌认为，电池原材料价格，尤其是锂价一定会降下来。至于锂价下降能够对蔚来毛利率提升起到什么作用，李斌用一个简单的模型来回答：\n“碳酸锂每10万的价格增长对我们（蔚来）毛利率的影响差不多在两个点左右，所以如果价格从60万降到40万，那我们就有4个点的毛利出来；如果价格能降到合理的十几万的水平，大体上能给我们释放8个点的毛利出来”。\n按照蔚来目前13.3%的毛利率来看，如果这个模型成立，蔚来最终的毛利率会在20%以上。\n而在此之前，市场对于智能电动车行业给出的预期稳态毛利率在20%-25%之间。而在分析师会议上，李斌表示，对于这样的一个毛利率水平，从长期来看，要实现并不是一个大问题。但同时，在这个问题上，李斌还前置了一个假设：\n“电池能够回到正常的、理性的价格”。\n至于蔚来实现收支平衡的指引，李斌将时间点定在了明年第四季度，当然，这其中也有一些不确定性。这些不确定性因素中，研发支出是主要的一环。\n而从财报的数据来看，庞大的研发支出，也确实是影响蔚来盈利的重要因素。\n今年第三季度，蔚来研发支出增加至29.45亿元，较去年同期增加146.8%，环比上个季度增加37%。同时，这个数据也创下上市以来的最高记录。\n\n\n\n研发资金主要的流向，李斌在分析师会议上的只言片语来看，主要有以下几个：\n首先是新业务，主要包括已经确认的两个新品牌及旗下新车型、芯片、电池和手机业务等。\n按照计划，蔚来明年在这部分新业务的研发支出规模，大概在30-40亿元之间，平均每个季度10亿元左右。\n李斌表示，如果不包括上述的这些研发支出，（明年第四季度）实现收支平衡是有信心的。\n其次则是新车型的研发，李斌表示，明年上半年，蔚来会面向市场推出5款车型。而且在这些车型中，将有一款车型会对标Model Y。\n03\n蔚来要进入下一个急速扩张期？\n毫无疑问的是，从蔚来的研发支出和最近一段时间的动作来看，其正在从市场和产业链两个方面，布局一张大网，寻求下一个增量。\n市场布局方面，主要有两个方向。\n其一，基于车型价位的市场垂直布局。公开消息显示，蔚来正在筹划的两个新品牌中，一个主攻20-30万元的中端市场，一个则下沉到了20万元以下的中低端市场。\n其二，基于海外市场的横向发展，就在上个月，蔚来在德国首都柏林举行了NIO Berlin蔚来欧洲发布会，正式吹响大规模进军欧洲市场的号角。虽然在此之前，蔚来已经在挪威登陆，但这次的声势明显更大，落地速度也不同以往。\n\n\n\n毫无疑问的是，从蔚来的研发支出和最近一段时间的动作来看，其正在从市场和产业链两个方面，布局一张大网，寻求下一个增量。\n市场布局方面，主要有两个方向。\n其一，基于车型价位的市场垂直布局。公开消息显示，蔚来正在筹划的两个新品牌中，一个主攻20-30万元的中端市场，一个则下沉到了20万元以下的中低端市场。\n其二，基于海外市场的横向发展，就在上个月，蔚来在德国首都柏林举行了NIO Berlin蔚来欧洲发布会，正式吹响大规模进军欧洲市场的号角。虽然在此之前，蔚来已经在挪威登陆，但这次的声势明显更大，落地速度也不同以往。\n产业链方面，蔚来涉及的环节已经涵盖智能电动车的方方面面，从智能驾驶软件算法到计算芯片硬件，再到包括电池自研自产在内的三电均有涉猎，甚至还有个人移动终端与汽车之间的生态布局。\n纵观这种布局，蔚来正在走的路，是在向一个汽车集团的发展靠近，比如用不同的品牌打通不同价位的市场，采用上下游垂直整合的方式来降本增效等等。\n所以，这自然也是蔚来跻身主流车企的一个机会，但历史经验表明，从一个单一汽车品牌走向多品牌的汽车集团，不会是一路坦途。\n至少在当下这个节点，蔚来要面临的不确定性不少。\n大环境来看，全球经济下行已经是一个共识，而外部经济环境恶化造成的影响必然是多方面的。\n从市场角度讲，经济下行受冲击最严重的，往往是处于经济体纺锤中间的大部分中产群体，而这部分人，也是30万元以下汽车市场的主要消费群体。蔚来的两个大众品牌能否在市场需求收缩的状态下博得一席之位，存在很大的未知数。\n\n\n\n另外，30万元以下的市场，也是各大车企竞争最激烈的鏖战中心，比亚迪、特斯拉等车企在这部分市场的竞争优势有目共睹，作为新品牌，如果不能在车型上市就一炮打响，未来要面对的现实很可能就是无人问津，这样的例子，在市场上屡见不鲜。\n从资本的角度来讲，经济下行也意味着资本收缩，投资趋于冷静保守。而蔚来目前的状态，还处于净亏损的阶段。从财报来看，蔚来账上的现金及现金等价物，已经从上个季度末的544亿元下降到514亿元，处于近四个季度以来的最低水平。\n虽然李斌在分析师会议上表示，蔚来的现金储备没有问题，但长期的亏损再加上盈利的不确定性，在这个关键节点铺这么大的盘子，还是有一定的风险。\n毕竟现在想要从资本市场上输血，已经没有过去那么容易了。\n三季度财报透露信息来看，蔚来已经打响了全线战役，包括中低端品牌、自研芯片、自研自产电池、手机业务、海外市场等都已经进入事实性投入阶段。\n在整个市场承压的背景下，蔚来将战线拉的这么长，只能说风险不小，勇气可嘉。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363578184,"gmtCreate":1614159477948,"gmtModify":1614159477948,"author":{"id":"3549360304191362","authorId":"3549360304191362","name":"昵什么称啊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549360304191362","authorIdStr":"3549360304191362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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