FF2020的个人主页 - 老虎社区

FF2020

FF2020

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IP属地：北京

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2023-01-11

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@大师兄玩量化和对冲:$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ @SQQQ HI，各位tiger社区的小伙伴们大家好呀，其实早就想来tiger社区发点视频，和大家分享一下过去一年左右时间和100多个认真的笔记成员做对冲量化交易的心得和统计数据了，但是奈何确实太忙，就一直拖到了现在。话不多说，既然是第一次来，直接分享我们的交易策略和理论核心部分【1小时干货视频，没半点水花】，感兴趣的同学不要错过哦，我保证我们的操作方式和思路一定是你玩股票以来发现的第三个新世界。祝大家都能稳赢大师兄

2022-10-06

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$今年还派息不[财迷]

2022-06-17

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$这个票到底要干嘛

2022-06-11

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$这个票死了吗？还能抢救不

2022-04-08

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$这个票还有救吗？

2022-04-07

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$啥时候复工复产啊，有消息没有

2022-03-28

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$啥时候恢复交易，有消息没有？

2022-03-21

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$今天能开盘吗？

2022-03-14

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$这个票还能抢救一下不，要求不高，能继续存活就行

2021-11-01

$燕麦2203(ZO2203)$ 燕麦疯了吗？直线上涨，不会跌的吗？不讲道理

2021-09-30

$西方石油(OXY)$MB，上个30会S啊[愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒]

2021-06-29

吹牛皮一个顶俩

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-11

$玉米主连(ZCmain)$ 玉米价格到这个程度我觉得可以做空了

2021-04-09

$西方石油(OXY)$哥哥们怎么整

2021-02-08

$西方石油(OXY)$未来50年内人类真的会摆脱石油能源吗？我始终感觉所谓的新能源就是个忽悠，忽悠概念而已。无论氢能源，核电，水电，光伏都没有解决一个最大的问题-成本。如果石油的替代能源价格昂贵的多，拿为什么现成的现场的原油不用，非要用其他能源呢？刨除成本谈环保就是泥嘛刷流氓。

2020-12-31

看这标题就是纯属扯淡

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-10-30

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

直播：美国大选带来的投资机会（二）

2020-09-29

私有化是不是股价白瞎了，找个借口退市呗？整得好像挺高大上的，所谓私有化

搜狗盘前一度涨超3%，公司签订最终私有化协议

2020-09-23

说了些P话

科技股一骑绝尘，互联网泡沫2.0降临美股？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>慢了 3 年，但却正是这三年的时间差，成了搜狗在搜索赛道上长期无法超越百度的硬伤。</p><p>海外网站流量分析平台 StatCounter 数据显示，截止 2019 年年末，国内搜索引擎市场份额排名前三依次为百度、搜狗、神马，其中百度搜索市场份额占比最大，占有率为 67.09%，相比 2019 年初稍有下降，排行第二的搜狗搜索份额提升明显，但也只到 18.75%，距离百度依然存在 3 倍左右的份额差距。</p><p>在国内互联网普及程度已经极高，新增网民数量逐步趋于停滞的情况之下，国内搜索领域百度一家独大的局面已稳固，短期扭转无望。</p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>搜狗盘前一度涨超3%，公司签订最终私有化协议</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n搜狗盘前一度涨超3%，公司签订最终私有化协议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-29 19:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>9月29日晚间消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOGO\">搜狗</a>发布公告称，已就私有化交易达成最终协议。预计该笔交易将在2020年第四季度完成，合并完成后，搜狗将成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的间接全资子公司，其美国存托凭证将不再在纽约证券交易所上市。</p><p>受此消息影响，搜狗盘前一度涨超3%，搜狐盘前涨超12%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b525f94635fc6bac8c82bcb2a6cc521\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1645\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b49fbd438082435fbf0fabacf42954\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1652\"></p><p>7月27日搜狗收到腾讯（包含其附属公司）的非约束提案。腾讯拟以每股普通股或ADS（美国存托股）9美元的价格现金收购搜狗全部已发行普通股，包括ADS代表的普通股。若这项拟交易完成，搜狗将成为腾讯私人持股间接全资子公司，并从纽交所退市。</p><p>随后，搜狗 CEO 王小川在朋友圈写到：“感谢腾讯公司对搜狗公司的价值以及技术能力、产品创新能力的认可。接下来会对相关事宜进行认真的讨论和衡量，让搜狗能够持续为用户创造更大的价值。”</p><p><b>王小川“巧男”无米难炊</b></p><p>创立于 2003 年的搜狗仅比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>慢了 3 年，但却正是这三年的时间差，成了搜狗在搜索赛道上长期无法超越百度的硬伤。</p><p>海外网站流量分析平台 StatCounter 数据显示，截止 2019 年年末，国内搜索引擎市场份额排名前三依次为百度、搜狗、神马，其中百度搜索市场份额占比最大，占有率为 67.09%，相比 2019 年初稍有下降，排行第二的搜狗搜索份额提升明显，但也只到 18.75%，距离百度依然存在 3 倍左右的份额差距。</p><p>在国内互联网普及程度已经极高，新增网民数量逐步趋于停滞的情况之下，国内搜索领域百度一家独大的局面已稳固，短期扭转无望。</p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3769f7f86599b6ee46ae268ec397c19e","relate_stocks":{"SOGO":"搜狗"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906683","content_text":"9月29日晚间消息，搜狗发布公告称，已就私有化交易达成最终协议。预计该笔交易将在2020年第四季度完成，合并完成后，搜狗将成为腾讯的间接全资子公司，其美国存托凭证将不再在纽约证券交易所上市。受此消息影响，搜狗盘前一度涨超3%，搜狐盘前涨超12%。7月27日搜狗收到腾讯（包含其附属公司）的非约束提案。腾讯拟以每股普通股或ADS（美国存托股）9美元的价格现金收购搜狗全部已发行普通股，包括ADS代表的普通股。若这项拟交易完成，搜狗将成为腾讯私人持股间接全资子公司，并从纽交所退市。随后，搜狗 CEO 王小川在朋友圈写到：“感谢腾讯公司对搜狗公司的价值以及技术能力、产品创新能力的认可。接下来会对相关事宜进行认真的讨论和衡量，让搜狗能够持续为用户创造更大的价值。”王小川“巧男”无米难炊创立于 2003 年的搜狗仅比百度慢了 3 年，但却正是这三年的时间差，成了搜狗在搜索赛道上长期无法超越百度的硬伤。海外网站流量分析平台 StatCounter 数据显示，截止 2019 年年末，国内搜索引擎市场份额排名前三依次为百度、搜狗、神马，其中百度搜索市场份额占比最大，占有率为 67.09%，相比 2019 年初稍有下降，排行第二的搜狗搜索份额提升明显，但也只到 18.75%，距离百度依然存在 3 倍左右的份额差距。在国内互联网普及程度已经极高，新增网民数量逐步趋于停滞的情况之下，国内搜索领域百度一家独大的局面已稳固，短期扭转无望。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975712536,"gmtCreate":1600832825825,"gmtModify":1703822623841,"author":{"id":"3547636203086444","authorId":"3547636203086444","name":"FF2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a54a303ff2c905483bbccd20d693de","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547636203086444","authorIdStr":"3547636203086444"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说了些P话","listText":"说了些P话","text":"说了些P话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975712536","repostId":"1171643461","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171643461","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1600829397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171643461?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-23 10:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"科技股一骑绝尘，互联网泡沫2.0降临美股？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171643461","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"今天的科技股繁荣真的是互联网泡沫2.0吗？答案是，如果单单看科技股的估值，似乎是有那么点意思，但是如果看看生产率，就会明白两个时代之间有巨大的不同。\n\n美股市场上，科技股，尤其是大型科技股从3月低点开","content":"<blockquote>\n 今天的科技股繁荣真的是互联网泡沫2.0吗？答案是，如果单单看科技股的估值，似乎是有那么点意思，但是如果看看生产率，就会明白两个时代之间有巨大的不同。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美股市场上，科技股，尤其是大型科技股从3月低点开始，引领着大盘戏剧性反弹，乃至于不断刷出新高的一路上，一直都有质疑者宣称，这其实是1990年代末互联网泡沫的2.0版本，而最近，市场遭遇波折，大有发生深度盘整的可能性，这种声音自然也就更加响亮了。</p>\n<p>那么，今天的科技股繁荣真的是互联网泡沫2.0吗？答案是，如果单单看科技股的估值，似乎是有那么点意思，但是如果看看生产率，就会明白两个时代之间有巨大的不同。</p>\n<p>遇到困难的时候，人们总是希望能和熟悉的人在一起，因为这会让他们感到安心。新冠病毒疫情爆发，颠覆了太多的东西，但是科技股的价格却获得了接近完美的表现。开年至今，科技股指标纳指已经上涨了25%之多，使得过去十年的总涨幅达到了400%以上。</p>\n<p>同时，如果不是苹果和微软等少数科技巨头的贡献，标普500指数今年本该是下跌的。在1990年代晚期的泡沫结束之后，科技股对于大盘从来不曾像现在这么重要过，其交易从来不曾像现在这么活跃过。</p>\n<p>只不过，对于狂热的投资者而言，这样的比较也会带来一个如冷水浇头般的关键事实——在2000年3月见顶后，纳指迅速崩盘，最终损失了73%。只不过，当时与现在相比，最令人不安的其实还不在于市场层面的诸多相似，而是在于经济层面的巨大差异。</p>\n<p>两轮繁荣确实不单单是股价走势类似，还有着其他一系列共同点。两轮行情能够发展起来，很大程度上都是靠着新资金的持续流入。1990年代晚期，折扣券商和线上交易平台兴起，吸引了大量的新玩家进入这个当时看似永远不会下跌的市场。现在，则是零星股票和衍生产品等在Robinhood这样的新平台上崛起。</p>\n<p>1990年代晚期，为高估值寻找合理性根据的激进牛派宣称，眼下已经到了新经济的黎明，这个时代属于更强大的电脑，更复杂的软件，以及无所不能的互联网。今天，市场上的乐观主义者则在强调云计算、人工智能、电动汽车，以及区块链改变世界的潜力。</p>\n<p>经济的具体表现，第一眼看上去也颇为相似。1990年代晚期，失业率低到只有4%，而工资在快速增长。本次疫情爆发前，美国的失业率处在半个世纪的最低点，工资也结束了乏善可陈的十年，开始提速增长，达到2008年以来最快。根据劳工统计局9月15日发布的数据，2019年当中，真实家庭收入中值增速达到了6.8%。</p>\n<p>然而，在一些关键的领域，这两个时期却是大相径庭。在1990年代刚开始的时候，许多主流经济学家都对新技术大幅提升企业效率的能力估计不足。诺贝尔经济学奖得主索洛（Robert Solow）1987年甚至曾经揶揄说，“你在所有地方都可以看到电脑时代的到来，维度在生产率数据当中看不到”。</p>\n<p>可是，到了1990年代中期，现实却已经完全不是他说的那样了。1998年到2000年期间，美国的每工时产出增长3%以上，上次经济实现如此壮举，还要追溯到1970年代早期。西北大学的数据显示，从1995年到2000年，美国全要素生产率年均增长了大约2%。这样速度大幅超越了1973年至1995年间的0.5%，可以和1947年至1973年的大增长周期相提并论了。</p>\n<p>相比之下，2010年代的生产率，未免就有点让人汗颜了。从2010年到现在，劳动生产率年增速从来不曾高过2%。根据旧金山联储的资料，全要素生产率增速更是跌到了历史的谷底——2003年到2019年年均只有0.3%，而如果从2010年算起，更是只有可怜的0.1%。</p>\n<p>正是因为劳动生产率的强势增长，1990年代才能够出现工资大增，同时企业利润却没有受到挤压的情形。虽然人们说起当初的互联网泡沫，脑子里往往首先想到那些尚未盈利，甚至连清晰的盈利路线图也没有的企业获得了高到离谱的估值，但是很少有人知道，从1990年到1997年，企业税后利润在国内生产总值当中的占比从4.7%增长到了6.7%，到世纪之交时有所回落，但也还有5.6%。</p>\n<p>然而，在2010年代当中，企业利润相对于国内生产总值的占比虽然高于当年，其大趋势是下滑的，从2010年的10.4%降低到了2019年的9.0%。</p>\n<p>不过，更重要的，或者说更具有说明性的，还是企业在这两段不同时期当中的一些具体行为。在1990年代当中，他们投资于电脑设备、软件和研发的资金相对于国内生产总值的比例增长了1.5%。可是，在2010年代当中，虽然整体利润水平比当初高了不少，但是前述投资相对于国内生产总值的比例却只增长了0.7%。</p>\n<p>1990年代晚期股市的超级大繁荣，其中固然是有非理性的成分在内，但是也必须看到，当时确实在发生一场科技驱动的结构性大变革。事实上，生产率提升的急先锋，正是电脑制造商本身。伴随电脑价格大幅度降低，功能日益增强，其他企业也开始向这种新设备进行投资。生产率的提升开始在整个经济领域内扩散开来，帮助企业进一步整合了制造流程，推动了一些关键行业的变革。</p>\n<p>哪怕在股市崩盘之后，这样的趋势其实也还在继续，甚至还进一步加速了。虽然不少狂热时代的宠儿灰飞烟灭了，但是那个时代建设起来的数字基础设施却保留下来了，更不必说，那个时代也成就了许多一直到今天还屹立不倒的真巨头。</p>\n<p>比如，亚马逊2001年3月曾经被《经济学人》杂志认定，“这样的企业即便能够存活下来，也很难恢复到旧日的面目了”。确实，当时亚马逊已经在崩盘当中损失掉了90%的市值，股价跌到了不足10美元，可是《经济学人》没有想到，这只股票今天已经涨到了大约3100美元。</p>\n<p>其实，今天也有一些被部分投资者目为泡沫的股票，最终被证实为是优秀的投资选择。要对经济前景持乐观判断，总归是需要一点信念的，而且现实也确实有值得期待的地方。一些经济学家估计，那难以度量的所谓“无形投资”，比如花在重新设计工作流程上的时间，在企业界整体层面上正在增长。如果他们的判断是准确的，那么完全可以说，无论是当前的投资数字，还是预期的经济增长速度，其实都可能被低估了。</p>\n<p>每工时产出和全要素生产率的增长，2019年都有所提速。虽然当下依然不能和1990年代相提并论，但是这一加速表现也可能是预示着又一波经济转型浪潮即将到来。新冠病毒疫情的爆发当然是使得企业行为受到了严重的限制，但是这很可能反而加速了新科技驱动的重组。</p>\n<p>在科技股3月以来的大涨之中，这个因素恐怕也起到了不小的作用。虽然表面上看来，今日科技股估值的高企与1990年代极端相似，但是两者的基础却全然不同，当年更多是基于眼前的现实，而今日更多是基于未来的可能性。投资者在投资的时候，也必须学会这样去考虑。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技股一骑绝尘，互联网泡沫2.0降临美股？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技股一骑绝尘，互联网泡沫2.0降临美股？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-23 10:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/410898><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天的科技股繁荣真的是互联网泡沫2.0吗？答案是，如果单单看科技股的估值，似乎是有那么点意思，但是如果看看生产率，就会明白两个时代之间有巨大的不同。\n\n美股市场上，科技股，尤其是大型科技股从3月低点开始，引领着大盘戏剧性反弹，乃至于不断刷出新高的一路上，一直都有质疑者宣称，这其实是1990年代末互联网泡沫的2.0版本，而最近，市场遭遇波折，大有发生深度盘整的可能性，这种声音自然也就更加响亮了。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/410898\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cce8afd9c6d0c800f1364edda0141","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/410898","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171643461","content_text":"今天的科技股繁荣真的是互联网泡沫2.0吗？答案是，如果单单看科技股的估值，似乎是有那么点意思，但是如果看看生产率，就会明白两个时代之间有巨大的不同。\n\n美股市场上，科技股，尤其是大型科技股从3月低点开始，引领着大盘戏剧性反弹，乃至于不断刷出新高的一路上，一直都有质疑者宣称，这其实是1990年代末互联网泡沫的2.0版本，而最近，市场遭遇波折，大有发生深度盘整的可能性，这种声音自然也就更加响亮了。\n那么，今天的科技股繁荣真的是互联网泡沫2.0吗？答案是，如果单单看科技股的估值，似乎是有那么点意思，但是如果看看生产率，就会明白两个时代之间有巨大的不同。\n遇到困难的时候，人们总是希望能和熟悉的人在一起，因为这会让他们感到安心。新冠病毒疫情爆发，颠覆了太多的东西，但是科技股的价格却获得了接近完美的表现。开年至今，科技股指标纳指已经上涨了25%之多，使得过去十年的总涨幅达到了400%以上。\n同时，如果不是苹果和微软等少数科技巨头的贡献，标普500指数今年本该是下跌的。在1990年代晚期的泡沫结束之后，科技股对于大盘从来不曾像现在这么重要过，其交易从来不曾像现在这么活跃过。\n只不过，对于狂热的投资者而言，这样的比较也会带来一个如冷水浇头般的关键事实——在2000年3月见顶后，纳指迅速崩盘，最终损失了73%。只不过，当时与现在相比，最令人不安的其实还不在于市场层面的诸多相似，而是在于经济层面的巨大差异。\n两轮繁荣确实不单单是股价走势类似，还有着其他一系列共同点。两轮行情能够发展起来，很大程度上都是靠着新资金的持续流入。1990年代晚期，折扣券商和线上交易平台兴起，吸引了大量的新玩家进入这个当时看似永远不会下跌的市场。现在，则是零星股票和衍生产品等在Robinhood这样的新平台上崛起。\n1990年代晚期，为高估值寻找合理性根据的激进牛派宣称，眼下已经到了新经济的黎明，这个时代属于更强大的电脑，更复杂的软件，以及无所不能的互联网。今天，市场上的乐观主义者则在强调云计算、人工智能、电动汽车，以及区块链改变世界的潜力。\n经济的具体表现，第一眼看上去也颇为相似。1990年代晚期，失业率低到只有4%，而工资在快速增长。本次疫情爆发前，美国的失业率处在半个世纪的最低点，工资也结束了乏善可陈的十年，开始提速增长，达到2008年以来最快。根据劳工统计局9月15日发布的数据，2019年当中，真实家庭收入中值增速达到了6.8%。\n然而，在一些关键的领域，这两个时期却是大相径庭。在1990年代刚开始的时候，许多主流经济学家都对新技术大幅提升企业效率的能力估计不足。诺贝尔经济学奖得主索洛（Robert Solow）1987年甚至曾经揶揄说，“你在所有地方都可以看到电脑时代的到来，维度在生产率数据当中看不到”。\n可是，到了1990年代中期，现实却已经完全不是他说的那样了。1998年到2000年期间，美国的每工时产出增长3%以上，上次经济实现如此壮举，还要追溯到1970年代早期。西北大学的数据显示，从1995年到2000年，美国全要素生产率年均增长了大约2%。这样速度大幅超越了1973年至1995年间的0.5%，可以和1947年至1973年的大增长周期相提并论了。\n相比之下，2010年代的生产率，未免就有点让人汗颜了。从2010年到现在，劳动生产率年增速从来不曾高过2%。根据旧金山联储的资料，全要素生产率增速更是跌到了历史的谷底——2003年到2019年年均只有0.3%，而如果从2010年算起，更是只有可怜的0.1%。\n正是因为劳动生产率的强势增长，1990年代才能够出现工资大增，同时企业利润却没有受到挤压的情形。虽然人们说起当初的互联网泡沫，脑子里往往首先想到那些尚未盈利，甚至连清晰的盈利路线图也没有的企业获得了高到离谱的估值，但是很少有人知道，从1990年到1997年，企业税后利润在国内生产总值当中的占比从4.7%增长到了6.7%，到世纪之交时有所回落，但也还有5.6%。\n然而，在2010年代当中，企业利润相对于国内生产总值的占比虽然高于当年，其大趋势是下滑的，从2010年的10.4%降低到了2019年的9.0%。\n不过，更重要的，或者说更具有说明性的，还是企业在这两段不同时期当中的一些具体行为。在1990年代当中，他们投资于电脑设备、软件和研发的资金相对于国内生产总值的比例增长了1.5%。可是，在2010年代当中，虽然整体利润水平比当初高了不少，但是前述投资相对于国内生产总值的比例却只增长了0.7%。\n1990年代晚期股市的超级大繁荣，其中固然是有非理性的成分在内，但是也必须看到，当时确实在发生一场科技驱动的结构性大变革。事实上，生产率提升的急先锋，正是电脑制造商本身。伴随电脑价格大幅度降低，功能日益增强，其他企业也开始向这种新设备进行投资。生产率的提升开始在整个经济领域内扩散开来，帮助企业进一步整合了制造流程，推动了一些关键行业的变革。\n哪怕在股市崩盘之后，这样的趋势其实也还在继续，甚至还进一步加速了。虽然不少狂热时代的宠儿灰飞烟灭了，但是那个时代建设起来的数字基础设施却保留下来了，更不必说，那个时代也成就了许多一直到今天还屹立不倒的真巨头。\n比如，亚马逊2001年3月曾经被《经济学人》杂志认定，“这样的企业即便能够存活下来，也很难恢复到旧日的面目了”。确实，当时亚马逊已经在崩盘当中损失掉了90%的市值，股价跌到了不足10美元，可是《经济学人》没有想到，这只股票今天已经涨到了大约3100美元。\n其实，今天也有一些被部分投资者目为泡沫的股票，最终被证实为是优秀的投资选择。要对经济前景持乐观判断，总归是需要一点信念的，而且现实也确实有值得期待的地方。一些经济学家估计，那难以度量的所谓“无形投资”，比如花在重新设计工作流程上的时间，在企业界整体层面上正在增长。如果他们的判断是准确的，那么完全可以说，无论是当前的投资数字，还是预期的经济增长速度，其实都可能被低估了。\n每工时产出和全要素生产率的增长，2019年都有所提速。虽然当下依然不能和1990年代相提并论，但是这一加速表现也可能是预示着又一波经济转型浪潮即将到来。新冠病毒疫情的爆发当然是使得企业行为受到了严重的限制，但是这很可能反而加速了新科技驱动的重组。\n在科技股3月以来的大涨之中，这个因素恐怕也起到了不小的作用。虽然表面上看来，今日科技股估值的高企与1990年代极端相似，但是两者的基础却全然不同，当年更多是基于眼前的现实，而今日更多是基于未来的可能性。投资者在投资的时候，也必须学会这样去考虑。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":348542855,"gmtCreate":1617945720877,"gmtModify":1617945720877,"author":{"id":"3547636203086444","authorId":"3547636203086444","name":"FF2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a54a303ff2c905483bbccd20d693de","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547636203086444","idStr":"3547636203086444"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RSX\">$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$</a>今年还派息不[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RSX\">$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$</a>今年还派息不[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$今年还派息不[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668400299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619509538,"gmtCreate":1649320272947,"gmtModify":1649320272947,"author":{"id":"3547636203086444","authorId":"3547636203086444","name":"FF2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a54a303ff2c905483bbccd20d693de","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547636203086444","idStr":"3547636203086444"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RSX\">$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$</a>啥时候复工复产啊，有消息没有","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RSX\">$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$</a>啥时候复工复产啊，有消息没有","text":"$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$啥时候复工复产啊，有消息没有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619509538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331062438,"gmtCreate":1609391580424,"gmtModify":1703739178185,"author":{"id":"3547636203086444","authorId":"3547636203086444","name":"FF2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a54a303ff2c905483bbccd20d693de","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547636203086444","idStr":"3547636203086444"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看这标题就是纯属扯淡","listText":"看这标题就是纯属扯淡","text":"看这标题就是纯属扯淡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331062438","repostId":"1125157737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125157737","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1609383621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125157737?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-31 11:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"同是造车，百度或许比苹果更为值得期待","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125157737","media":"邻章","summary":"市场对科技互联网巨头入场造车，正报以热切期待。苹果公司被传出将于2021年发布首款汽车产品后，当日股票大涨5%；无独有偶，路透社有关百度正考虑自己生产电动汽车，并已经与汽车制造商开始就可行性进行谈判的","content":"<p>市场对科技互联网巨头入场造车，正报以热切期待。</p><p>苹果公司被传出将于2021年发布首款汽车产品后，当日股票大涨5%；无独有偶，路透社有关百度正考虑自己生产电动汽车，并已经与汽车制造商开始就可行性进行谈判的报道，也致百度股票当日大涨14%，并且近一段时间以来，资本市场似乎正在对百度的价值进行新一轮的重估与认可，表现在股价上是其正迎来近两年来的最佳股价表现——相对于五月份的低点而言，涨幅超过一倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132f855a90cc6104b0ae70be470763a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><b>市场为什么期待科技互联网巨头造车？</b></p><p>虽然苹果、百度、车企对这些报道传闻均表示不予置评，但市场对此依旧是热情万丈。</p><p>在此，问题也随之而来：市场为什么对科技互联网巨头造车，报有如此热情？</p><p>在我看来，可能有这样几个方面的原因在相互交织。</p><p>一是当前汽车市场正进入以“电动化、智能化、共享化、网联化”为核心特征的新四化时代，汽车也因此被定义为第四空间，成为承载资讯服务、娱乐休闲等当下互联网服务以及链接未来自动驾驶的新一代生态集合体。</p><p>但观察汽车行业，却不难发现在汽车新四化上，传统汽车厂商其实走得相对较为迟缓，反而是造车新势力们表现良好，特别是在电动化和智能化这两大趋势上，新势力们拥有更为大胆的步伐，也得到了更多新生代用户的认可，市场对其未来发展空间，也是报以极大期待，这从汽车新势力们虽然在产品销量、盈利能力上远不及传统汽车巨头，但却纷纷上演市值反超的现实中，均可见一斑。</p><p>二是市场规模超过两万亿美元的汽车市场，以其足够大的市场规模，被业界认为是科技互联网巨头们开辟新增长空间的关键钥匙，诸如市值已达两万亿的苹果，想要实现更大的市值突破，进入市场广阔的汽车市场就是其为数不多的选择。而在汽车成为第四空间趋势下，其也被视为是当前互联网人口红利渐失现实下，科技互联网巨头们获取新一轮增长的机会之地。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17b5646c04ec5e187fa110d4c36ae36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"762\"></p><p>三是汽车市场正呈现出的一大趋势是，越往后，决定汽车产品竞争力与豪华度的，将不是现有的这些要素，而是智能化能力，这使得百年汽车市场正处百年未有之大变局。</p><p>而纵观行业，更能发现的一大现实是，市场的颠覆性创新，往往不会由行业内的传统巨头开启，反而是由行业外有与之存在技术交叉的跨界巨头来开启，而当下的苹果、百度等科技互联网巨头，正是具备开启汽车市场颠覆性创新的“种子选手”。</p><p>从现实来看，苹果在消费电子领域，凭借领先的“工业设计、系统构建、芯片设计、供应链重塑”等实力，已经成功颠覆了众多领域，这些能力，当然也可被迁移到汽车产业中，我们从苹果在汽车领域的众多专利申请中，就可窥见苹果在汽车产品上不同于传统巨头们的一些新思路，而这些思路或将为消费者带来全新体验。</p><p>再看百度，其独特优势在于其在人工智能领域拥有全球领先的技术实力，早在2013年，百度就开始布局自动驾驶技术，并在2017年就发布了旨在大幅降低行业准入门槛、助力传统车企更为快速的搭建出一套属于自己的完整的自动驾驶系统的Apollo(阿波罗)平台开放计划，志在成为自动驾驶领域的“Android系统”，当下已与吉利、广汽、一汽、蔚来等210家业内伙伴构建起了全球自动驾驶生态联盟。</p><p><b>同是造车，百度或许比苹果更为值得期待</b></p><p>这些现实的相互交融，使得资本市场对苹果和百度等科技互联网巨头入场造车，变得颇为期待，其实即使是传统汽车巨头，也对科技互联网巨头进入汽车市场表示非常期待，诸如大众汽车CEO赫伯特·迪斯（Herbert Diess）就表示：“我们期待迎来新的竞争者，他们一定会加速行业的变革，并带来新的技术。他们有着难以置信的高估值，以及几乎无限的资源，因此我们非常尊重他们。“</p><p>而若当苹果和百度这类科技互联网巨头有朝一日真的入场造车，那么于个人而言，其实相对于苹果造车，个人更为看好“百度造车”。</p><p><b>核心原因在于：未来汽车产品的核心竞争力，必然会落脚到汽车自动驾驶能力的竞争上。而从当前现实来看，百度相对于苹果而言，显然是更具优势的存在。</b></p><p>苹果虽然拥有对消费需求的明锐洞察以及领先的工业设计、软件系统、芯片设计等能力，但在关乎汽车未来发展的自动驾驶技术领域，其并未展现出强势竞争力。</p><p>天风国际在日前发布的《别在这时候买进Apple Car概念股》投资风险警示报告中就谈到：“虽市场目前已臆测Apple Car可能硬件规格，但我们相信Apple Car若要成功，关键不在硬件，而是大数据/AI。而截至目前为止，Apple并没有在既有产品上，展现出显著的大数据/AI竞争优势·····苹果的Apple Car正面临发布时间、硬件规格和EV/自驾车市场竞争力的三大不确定性。”</p><p>但反观百度，在关乎未来汽车核心竞争力的AI能力上，却是远超苹果的存在——当下其AI能力就已被业内认可，并被市场初步验证。</p><p>在第二届Apollo生态大会上，Apollo最新发布的成绩单中，能够看到：目前百度Apollo拥有自动驾驶全球专利申请数2900项，获得测试牌照总计近200张，测试里程超过700万公里，并做到了零安全事故；Apollo GO成为全球唯一在多城开展Robotaxi与Robobus运营的出行服务，接待乘客超过21万名。</p><p>在智能汽车领域，百度更是将其L4自动驾驶技术降维释放到辅助驾驶产品中。Apollo智驾发布的高级别智能驾驶解决方案ANP（Apollo Navigation Pilot），不同于行业方案仅支持高速和城市环线，还可以在城市道路使用，从AVP到ANP，让Apollo实现了面向城市复杂道路的全场景自动驾驶量产解决方案。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7348b34054978b0983fd26342fe649b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"542\"></p><p>而这只是Apollo乐高式汽车智能化解决方案的冰山一角，这一方案包括高品质、更开放、可组装的“智驾、智舱、智图、智云”四大系列产品。Apollo智驾已开启大规模量产，当下广汽、威马、长城等品牌就已与百度Apollo在AVP开展了量产合作，未来3-5年预计搭载Apollo智驾产品的前装量产车将达到100万台；Apollo智舱已经与超过70家车企600款车型展开合作，并且百度还有自动驾驶必须的高精地图等能力。</p><p>就像业内评价的：百度有芯片，有云计算，有国内最强ai技术，有ACE智能交通引擎，有Apollo自动驾驶，还有高精地图，就差自己造车了，完美闭环。这是百度相对于苹果造车的优势所在，也是我认为百度造车更为值得期待的原因所在，可以说百度当前已经具备了造好一辆未来汽车所必需的软实力，如果真的入场造车，那么业界所期待的软硬一体，其实百度是有极大机会实现的。</p><p><b>万亿市值，百度的应许之地</b></p><p>如前所言，进入汽车市场，进行整车制造，被业界认为是苹果开启下一个万亿市值的关键要素，在我看来，若苹果能够凭借造车打开万亿市值新增量，那么在自动驾驶领域领先于苹果的百度，在未来也应能成为万亿市值俱乐部中的一员。</p><p>为什么这么说，能够看到，随着自动驾驶技术成为行业竞争核心要素，其实当下业内也已对百度Apollo的价值给出了大致标的。</p><p>瑞银在前段时间发布的报告中，按照Waymo估值的三分之一来锚定百度Apollo自动驾驶的估值约为100亿美元。而若以此前摩根士丹利对Waymo 1050亿美元的估值来计算，那么当下百度Apollo的估值将在350亿美元左右。</p><p>需要看到的是，Apollo自动驾驶其实只是百度Apollo能力的一部分，Apollo的完整能力还包括智能汽车和智能交通，三者正构成Apollo前行的三驾马车。</p><p>智能汽车部分，则是以当下软件正成为特斯拉、蔚来汽车等电动汽车厂商市值重要构成部分来锚定。</p><p>从业内来看，摩根士丹利认为特斯拉FSD将占据其市值三分之一；中金认为蔚来汽车软件将占到其市值的二分之一。百度Apollo智能汽车的估值可以参考蔚来软件部分，达到300亿元美元左右，其高位可参考特斯拉FSD，即三分之一特斯拉市值，约为1000-2000亿美元。</p><p>所以很显然的是，Apollo还有更大的价值空间。特别是考虑到未来的汽车产品将不会是单一的自动驾驶技术产品，其将是高度智能化的集合体；智能交通建设也将不断深入的现实下。</p><p>所以说万亿市值，将是百度的应许之地，其实并不为过。</p>","source":"lsy1574237633468","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>同是造车，百度或许比苹果更为值得期待</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n同是造车，百度或许比苹果更为值得期待\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-31 11:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwNzM3Nzg0Ng==&mid=2651071873&idx=1&sn=b499d8b8df7702f317c8b9dd1c08bbc8&chksm=808f8358b7f80a4e955123036f0fada442ddbfc1a0c3ac8457909402fd1340b3fcb104b58644&token=1761696633&lang=zh_CN#rd><strong>邻章</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场对科技互联网巨头入场造车，正报以热切期待。苹果公司被传出将于2021年发布首款汽车产品后，当日股票大涨5%；无独有偶，路透社有关百度正考虑自己生产电动汽车，并已经与汽车制造商开始就可行性进行谈判的报道，也致百度股票当日大涨14%，并且近一段时间以来，资本市场似乎正在对百度的价值进行新一轮的重估与认可，表现在股价上是其正迎来近两年来的最佳股价表现——相对于五月份的低点而言，涨幅超过一倍。市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwNzM3Nzg0Ng==&mid=2651071873&idx=1&sn=b499d8b8df7702f317c8b9dd1c08bbc8&chksm=808f8358b7f80a4e955123036f0fada442ddbfc1a0c3ac8457909402fd1340b3fcb104b58644&token=1761696633&lang=zh_CN#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132f855a90cc6104b0ae70be470763a6","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwNzM3Nzg0Ng==&mid=2651071873&idx=1&sn=b499d8b8df7702f317c8b9dd1c08bbc8&chksm=808f8358b7f80a4e955123036f0fada442ddbfc1a0c3ac8457909402fd1340b3fcb104b58644&token=1761696633&lang=zh_CN#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125157737","content_text":"市场对科技互联网巨头入场造车，正报以热切期待。苹果公司被传出将于2021年发布首款汽车产品后，当日股票大涨5%；无独有偶，路透社有关百度正考虑自己生产电动汽车，并已经与汽车制造商开始就可行性进行谈判的报道，也致百度股票当日大涨14%，并且近一段时间以来，资本市场似乎正在对百度的价值进行新一轮的重估与认可，表现在股价上是其正迎来近两年来的最佳股价表现——相对于五月份的低点而言，涨幅超过一倍。市场为什么期待科技互联网巨头造车？虽然苹果、百度、车企对这些报道传闻均表示不予置评，但市场对此依旧是热情万丈。在此，问题也随之而来：市场为什么对科技互联网巨头造车，报有如此热情？在我看来，可能有这样几个方面的原因在相互交织。一是当前汽车市场正进入以“电动化、智能化、共享化、网联化”为核心特征的新四化时代，汽车也因此被定义为第四空间，成为承载资讯服务、娱乐休闲等当下互联网服务以及链接未来自动驾驶的新一代生态集合体。但观察汽车行业，却不难发现在汽车新四化上，传统汽车厂商其实走得相对较为迟缓，反而是造车新势力们表现良好，特别是在电动化和智能化这两大趋势上，新势力们拥有更为大胆的步伐，也得到了更多新生代用户的认可，市场对其未来发展空间，也是报以极大期待，这从汽车新势力们虽然在产品销量、盈利能力上远不及传统汽车巨头，但却纷纷上演市值反超的现实中，均可见一斑。二是市场规模超过两万亿美元的汽车市场，以其足够大的市场规模，被业界认为是科技互联网巨头们开辟新增长空间的关键钥匙，诸如市值已达两万亿的苹果，想要实现更大的市值突破，进入市场广阔的汽车市场就是其为数不多的选择。而在汽车成为第四空间趋势下，其也被视为是当前互联网人口红利渐失现实下，科技互联网巨头们获取新一轮增长的机会之地。三是汽车市场正呈现出的一大趋势是，越往后，决定汽车产品竞争力与豪华度的，将不是现有的这些要素，而是智能化能力，这使得百年汽车市场正处百年未有之大变局。而纵观行业，更能发现的一大现实是，市场的颠覆性创新，往往不会由行业内的传统巨头开启，反而是由行业外有与之存在技术交叉的跨界巨头来开启，而当下的苹果、百度等科技互联网巨头，正是具备开启汽车市场颠覆性创新的“种子选手”。从现实来看，苹果在消费电子领域，凭借领先的“工业设计、系统构建、芯片设计、供应链重塑”等实力，已经成功颠覆了众多领域，这些能力，当然也可被迁移到汽车产业中，我们从苹果在汽车领域的众多专利申请中，就可窥见苹果在汽车产品上不同于传统巨头们的一些新思路，而这些思路或将为消费者带来全新体验。再看百度，其独特优势在于其在人工智能领域拥有全球领先的技术实力，早在2013年，百度就开始布局自动驾驶技术，并在2017年就发布了旨在大幅降低行业准入门槛、助力传统车企更为快速的搭建出一套属于自己的完整的自动驾驶系统的Apollo(阿波罗)平台开放计划，志在成为自动驾驶领域的“Android系统”，当下已与吉利、广汽、一汽、蔚来等210家业内伙伴构建起了全球自动驾驶生态联盟。同是造车，百度或许比苹果更为值得期待这些现实的相互交融，使得资本市场对苹果和百度等科技互联网巨头入场造车，变得颇为期待，其实即使是传统汽车巨头，也对科技互联网巨头进入汽车市场表示非常期待，诸如大众汽车CEO赫伯特·迪斯（Herbert Diess）就表示：“我们期待迎来新的竞争者，他们一定会加速行业的变革，并带来新的技术。他们有着难以置信的高估值，以及几乎无限的资源，因此我们非常尊重他们。“而若当苹果和百度这类科技互联网巨头有朝一日真的入场造车，那么于个人而言，其实相对于苹果造车，个人更为看好“百度造车”。核心原因在于：未来汽车产品的核心竞争力，必然会落脚到汽车自动驾驶能力的竞争上。而从当前现实来看，百度相对于苹果而言，显然是更具优势的存在。苹果虽然拥有对消费需求的明锐洞察以及领先的工业设计、软件系统、芯片设计等能力，但在关乎汽车未来发展的自动驾驶技术领域，其并未展现出强势竞争力。天风国际在日前发布的《别在这时候买进Apple Car概念股》投资风险警示报告中就谈到：“虽市场目前已臆测Apple Car可能硬件规格，但我们相信Apple Car若要成功，关键不在硬件，而是大数据/AI。而截至目前为止，Apple并没有在既有产品上，展现出显著的大数据/AI竞争优势·····苹果的Apple Car正面临发布时间、硬件规格和EV/自驾车市场竞争力的三大不确定性。”但反观百度，在关乎未来汽车核心竞争力的AI能力上，却是远超苹果的存在——当下其AI能力就已被业内认可，并被市场初步验证。在第二届Apollo生态大会上，Apollo最新发布的成绩单中，能够看到：目前百度Apollo拥有自动驾驶全球专利申请数2900项，获得测试牌照总计近200张，测试里程超过700万公里，并做到了零安全事故；Apollo GO成为全球唯一在多城开展Robotaxi与Robobus运营的出行服务，接待乘客超过21万名。在智能汽车领域，百度更是将其L4自动驾驶技术降维释放到辅助驾驶产品中。Apollo智驾发布的高级别智能驾驶解决方案ANP（Apollo Navigation Pilot），不同于行业方案仅支持高速和城市环线，还可以在城市道路使用，从AVP到ANP，让Apollo实现了面向城市复杂道路的全场景自动驾驶量产解决方案。而这只是Apollo乐高式汽车智能化解决方案的冰山一角，这一方案包括高品质、更开放、可组装的“智驾、智舱、智图、智云”四大系列产品。Apollo智驾已开启大规模量产，当下广汽、威马、长城等品牌就已与百度Apollo在AVP开展了量产合作，未来3-5年预计搭载Apollo智驾产品的前装量产车将达到100万台；Apollo智舱已经与超过70家车企600款车型展开合作，并且百度还有自动驾驶必须的高精地图等能力。就像业内评价的：百度有芯片，有云计算，有国内最强ai技术，有ACE智能交通引擎，有Apollo自动驾驶，还有高精地图，就差自己造车了，完美闭环。这是百度相对于苹果造车的优势所在，也是我认为百度造车更为值得期待的原因所在，可以说百度当前已经具备了造好一辆未来汽车所必需的软实力，如果真的入场造车，那么业界所期待的软硬一体，其实百度是有极大机会实现的。万亿市值，百度的应许之地如前所言，进入汽车市场，进行整车制造，被业界认为是苹果开启下一个万亿市值的关键要素，在我看来，若苹果能够凭借造车打开万亿市值新增量，那么在自动驾驶领域领先于苹果的百度，在未来也应能成为万亿市值俱乐部中的一员。为什么这么说，能够看到，随着自动驾驶技术成为行业竞争核心要素，其实当下业内也已对百度Apollo的价值给出了大致标的。瑞银在前段时间发布的报告中，按照Waymo估值的三分之一来锚定百度Apollo自动驾驶的估值约为100亿美元。而若以此前摩根士丹利对Waymo 1050亿美元的估值来计算，那么当下百度Apollo的估值将在350亿美元左右。需要看到的是，Apollo自动驾驶其实只是百度Apollo能力的一部分，Apollo的完整能力还包括智能汽车和智能交通，三者正构成Apollo前行的三驾马车。智能汽车部分，则是以当下软件正成为特斯拉、蔚来汽车等电动汽车厂商市值重要构成部分来锚定。从业内来看，摩根士丹利认为特斯拉FSD将占据其市值三分之一；中金认为蔚来汽车软件将占到其市值的二分之一。百度Apollo智能汽车的估值可以参考蔚来软件部分，达到300亿元美元左右，其高位可参考特斯拉FSD，即三分之一特斯拉市值，约为1000-2000亿美元。所以很显然的是，Apollo还有更大的价值空间。特别是考虑到未来的汽车产品将不会是单一的自动驾驶技术产品，其将是高度智能化的集合体；智能交通建设也将不断深入的现实下。所以说万亿市值，将是百度的应许之地，其实并不为过。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308470171,"gmtCreate":1604061554693,"gmtModify":1703831891165,"author":{"id":"3547636203086444","authorId":"3547636203086444","name":"FF2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a54a303ff2c905483bbccd20d693de","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547636203086444","idStr":"3547636203086444"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308470171","repostId":"16034548914630","repostType":17,"repost":{"id":369,"live_id":"16034548914630","type":0,"live_form":0,"category_id":5,"category_name":"大咖热评","material_type":0,"regions":[1],"title":"美国大选带来的投资机会（二）","title_en":"","status":3,"abstract_en":[],"description_html":"今日美国大选如火如荼进行中，乾坤未定，美国大选结果对市场的影响如何呢？我们如何利用期权保护好自己的资产呢？\n\n【讲师介绍】\n王友民：海外衍生品专家。拥有超过25年的衍生品交易经验，拥有期货，证券，债券，信托等多类业务执业证照，对贵金属期货和期权，以及避险策略有深入研究。\n\n【内容要点】\n当前的大选结果对市场的影响解读\n黄金等贵金属的投资机会解盘\n股指投资机会实时解盘\n我们要注意哪些风险？\n如何利用期权保护好自己的收益？","description_html_en":"","source_url":"https://lpl27170.laohu8.com/live/youmin.m3u8","video_url":"","live_img_url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c0ad83325e1017c6986cb4fdec450f","live_img_url_en":"","activate_content":true,"expected_time":1604476800040,"time_remain":-131043889017,"start_time":0,"end_time":0,"user_counter":"236693","symbols":[{"symbol":".IXIC"},{"symbol":".DJI"}],"speaker_info":[],"abstract":[]},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":977026008,"gmtCreate":1601379135204,"gmtModify":1703824105258,"author":{"id":"3547636203086444","authorId":"3547636203086444","name":"FF2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a54a303ff2c905483bbccd20d693de","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547636203086444","idStr":"3547636203086444"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"私有化是不是股价白瞎了，找个借口退市呗？整得好像挺高大上的，所谓私有化","listText":"私有化是不是股价白瞎了，找个借口退市呗？整得好像挺高大上的，所谓私有化","text":"私有化是不是股价白瞎了，找个借口退市呗？整得好像挺高大上的，所谓私有化","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977026008","repostId":"1175906683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975712536,"gmtCreate":1600832825825,"gmtModify":1703822623841,"author":{"id":"3547636203086444","authorId":"3547636203086444","name":"FF2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a54a303ff2c905483bbccd20d693de","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547636203086444","idStr":"3547636203086444"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说了些P话","listText":"说了些P话","text":"说了些P话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975712536","repostId":"1171643461","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}