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天幕星光
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IP属地:湖北
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天幕星光
2020-08-07
$Whiting Petroleum Corp(WLL)$
还能到5么?
天幕星光
2020-08-01
$Northern Oil And Gas(NOG)$
0.88买的,还有希望吗?
天幕星光
2020-07-29
$Whiting Petroleum Corp(WLL)$
这个票还有人持有吗?
天幕星光
2020-07-25
主要看钱,钱多肯定买房。我从来不跟客户说我炒股,因为那样对方会怀疑我的实力。
中美博弈升级,下半年买股票还是房子?
天幕星光
2020-07-14
看到隔壁涨,买这个的,恐怕要失望了。庄怎么可能同时拉升两个股?
天幕星光
2020-07-14
$亿邦国际(EBON)$
能不能学学微美全息,直接爆了,新闻一发,马上韭菜们闻着味就过来了。
天幕星光
2020-07-14
$亿邦国际(EBON)$
这货上冲了一会,发现大盘好像在暴跌,没有信心了
天幕星光
2020-07-14
$微美全息(WIMI)$
飞流直下了
天幕星光
2020-07-14
$亿邦国际(EBON)$
感觉要起飞,买了。
天幕星光
2020-07-11
$微美全息(WIMI)$
胆子太小了,4元进,11块跑了
天幕星光
2020-07-07
$Whiting Petroleum Corp(WLL)$
还有人持有这个票吗?
天幕星光
2020-07-01
$切萨皮克能源(CHKAQ)$
11_还在吗?你看到多少?
天幕星光
2020-06-29
$切萨皮克能源(CHK)$
挂了2元买单,睡觉了
天幕星光
2020-06-29
$切萨皮克能源(CHK)$
破产保护了,估计5元都不够了吧
天幕星光
2020-06-26
$切萨皮克能源(CHK)$
需端来看,国外疫情二次爆发风险依然很高。供端来看,石油减产已经达到极限。40美元在短时间会是油价的天花板。石油股要沉寂一段时间了。
天幕星光
2020-06-25
$切萨皮克能源(CHK)$
差点没忍住,还好没有买。看来是诱多。
天幕星光
2020-06-25
$Whiting Petroleum Corp(WLL)$
从0.325捏到现在,2元多减仓了一半,还要继续拿吗?
天幕星光
2020-06-25
$切萨皮克能源(CHK)$
11_,我打算9元买,你呢?
天幕星光
2020-06-19
$切萨皮克能源(CHK)$
13.21挂单了,看看能买到不
天幕星光
2020-06-19
$切萨皮克能源(CHK)$
最近没有人关注这个票了,都割了吗?
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21:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中美博弈升级,下半年买股票还是房子?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141702285","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"李迅雷认为,疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色,投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日(周五),A股遭遇大幅调整,上证指数失守3200点,下跌近130点。","content":"<p>李迅雷认为,疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色,投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。</p><p>7月24日(周五),A股遭遇大幅调整,上证指数失守3200点,下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚,创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。</p><p>中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为,近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素,更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整,中美关系只是扰动市场的短期因素。</p><p>对于A股自3月低点以来总体回升、持续走高的态势,李迅雷认为经济和企业盈利基本面并不支持所谓的「全面牛市」。他指出,中国股市指数上涨,是由于原有估值体系正在经历修正,指数中权重较大的股票估值在走高。</p><p>同时,随着中国经济结构性转型,股市正在及时地反映消费升级、新旧产业更替等趋势。「从2017年到现在为止,其实就是一个结构性的牛市。」他对《巴伦周刊》中文版说。</p><p>另一方面,最受国内投资者关注的房地产市场迅速摆脱新冠疫情影响,复苏势头明显。下半年,投资者该如何在股市和房地产之间权衡?</p><p>李迅雷认为,房地产销售自6月以来有所走弱,预示着疫情后房地产市场不会有太大起色。由于房价经历了长期上涨,房地产的投资回报率实际上也在下降。「长期而言,中国居民资产配置中房地产的占比过大,应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。」</p><p>在李迅雷看来,我们目前面临着「货币多、好资产少」的格局。在各大类资产中,他最看好权益资产,并认为投资者应该借助专业基金经理的专业技能去发现「好的稀缺资产」。</p><p>李迅雷此前曾先后在国泰君安证券、海通证券长期负责研究工作。近些年来,他对于中国经济转型、房地产市场趋势等话题的研究引发了广泛的社会反响。</p><p>以下是经过编辑的采访实录:01 中美关系只是短期扰动</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:中美紧张关系近两日来有所升温,而A股在23日、24日连续两个交易日收低,且北向资金也连续出现净流出。您如何看待当前市场出现的调整?中美关系波动是否会对A股造成持续冲击?</p><p>李迅雷:我认为中美局势是一个触发因素,但不是主要影响因素。主要因素在于,近一段时间以来产业资本减持、新股发行以及北上资金流出等,带来了一定的变化。今年以来一些股票涨幅比较大,而随着新股发行规模加大,尤其是7月比较集中,市场短期内的供需关系有了变化,也会造成一些心理影响。市场在这一过程中做出调整是正常现象,毕竟短期内冲高的幅度有些大。</p><p>中美关系波动接下来不会对A股造成较大的冲击,因为大部分的变化已经在预期之内。另一方面,中美紧张关系进一步升级的可能性也并不大,两国高级代表还计划于8月会面,将会评估第一阶段贸易协议的落实,并讨论下一步如何做。所以,中美关系会带来一些扰动因素,但市场的调整更多的是市场自身的原因。</p><p>以上这些都是短期因素,真正的原因还是在于估值的调整。A股市场估值目前处在一个相对均衡的水平,如果经济基本面下半年能够继续好转的话,那么市场还是应该会有上升的动力。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:上证综指从3月低点大幅回升,进入7月后涨幅尤其明显。您如何看待当前A股大涨的推动因素?为什么进入7月后涨幅会明显扩大?</p><p>李迅雷:对于股市涨跌,我们事后找原因的话会发现有好多原因。但问题在于,事前预测7月会出现大幅上涨是很难通过逻辑推理来实现的。</p><p>不过,股市上涨的逻辑肯定是存在的。美国股市近来为什么涨那么多?在美国疫情如此严峻的情况下、在美国经济大幅度的负增长情况下,美国股市为什么表现这么好?美股从技术性熊市变成技术性牛市,而且纳斯达克指数还创了历史新高?这显然还是跟美联储的「无限量量化宽松」的货币政策有关,与美国财政部大量举债来救助企业和个人也是相关的。我觉得这是一个主要由资金推动的市场行情。</p><p>美国作为一个成熟市场,况且有这么反常的表现,中国作为新兴市场出现股市上涨就并不意外。无论是资金面、技术面和基本面,中国股市都具备一定的支撑因素。</p><p>资金面来讲,上半年中国的广义货币供应量(M2)增速还是比较高的,与名义GDP增速之间的缺口达到了历史较高水平。虽然我们不像美国这样大规模的放水,但是我们实际上也采取了比较宽松的货币政策,降准、降息也比较频繁。</p><p>就基本面而言,在全球经济都受到疫情严重影响的情况下,中国的疫情基本上得到控制,所以经济复苏的迹象是非常明显。这对于上市公司的基本面改善也提供了一定的支撑。</p><p>另外,中国居民在收入出现负增长的情况下,消费的降幅更大,导致储蓄有所增加。老百姓少消费、多投资,对股市也是有利的。</p><p>02 经济转型催生结构性牛市</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:基于A股目前的上涨行情,有不少人认为A股正在经历一轮长期牛市或全面牛市,您怎么看待这种观点?</p><p>李迅雷:我觉得A股目前出现长期牛市的观点不大能成立。我们整个经济还处在转型期,中国股市跟美国股市不一样,我们属于新兴市场。这几年我们上市公司的亏损面是在扩大的,盈利增速有所下降。</p><p>目前所谓的牛市,我认为更多是对现有估值体系的一种修正——是修正而不是修复。这种估值体系修正产生了结构性的牛市。</p><p>以往,A股估值体系当中绩差股、小市值股票估值较高,大市值股票的估值比较低,即「对不确定性溢价」,「对确定性折价」。现在反过来了,小市股票估值水平在往下走,大市值股票的估值水平在往上走。由于大市值股票更能够带动指数,所以这个指数是在往上走。另一方面,股价下跌的股票的数量是在增加的,因为中小市值股票在市场当中占比较大。</p><p>这样的话,从2017年到现在为止,其实就是一个结构性的牛市。原先的估值体系是不合理的,给予小市值的、净资产收益率(ROE)比较低的公司比较高的估值,而ROE比较高、大市值的公司估值较低。</p><p>结构性牛市另一种表现是,医药生物、电子、通讯、计算机等高科技行业代表新经济动能的股票,估值水平是在往上走的。另外,代表居民消费升级的食品饮料板块,总体估值水平也是在往上走。与此同时,传统经济板块的估值水平基本上没有太大变化,现在还是处在相对较低的估值水平。</p><p>所以,这两种结构性的变化给A股带来了一种牛市的感觉。这些变化跟中国经济结构调整、转型升级是相关的。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:从基本面投资的角度来看,这些行业和板块的长期投资价值也更大?</p><p>李迅雷:是的。传统经济领域中,一些与消费升级明显相关的行业,估值得到了提升。最典型的比如白酒行业,估值水平从过去的十几倍市盈率已经上升到现在的二三十倍市盈率。尽管它属于传统行业,但它属于消费类的行业、不是传统的周期类行业。中国经济已经从投资主导转化为消费主导,所以消费板块连续两年的涨幅都处于领先水平。</p><p>对于一些新兴行业(包括医药生物、计算机、互联网、新能源新材料等),它们的估值水平虽然不便宜,但大家更看重未来的发展前景,这也是符合逻辑、有理性成分的。这种逻辑跟过去炒小盘、炒绩差股、炒地域概念的逻辑还是有差别。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:A股今年的这一轮涨势在多大程度上反映了中国经济的改善?</p><p>李迅雷:我觉得对中国经济转型将是一个非常漫长的过程,没有十年、二十年年很难完成。所以,我们不要把股市上涨跟我们的经济增速变化过多联系在一起,我觉得股市的变化更多地是在反映中国经济结构的变化,而通过数学模型分析,A股指数的表现好坏跟我们经济的好坏,没有很明显的相关性。</p><p>大家常说「中国股市是中国经济的晴雨表」,我觉得「晴雨表」更多是在反映经济结构,而不是反映经济的走势。</p><p>现在股市里面涨得好的股票往往都是跟中国经济转型相关的,而不是跟中国经济周期相关。A股与中国经济的周期性变化关联度不大。实际上,这些年中国经济的周期特征越来越弱了,因为逆周期经济政策强度比较大、调控频率越来越高。</p><p>但是,中国经济的结构性变化还是能够比较及时地在股市上反映出来。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:到7月22日,科创板开板整整一年,这一年的表现是否符合您的预期?接下来科创板的投资价值如何?</p><p>李迅雷:科创板在初始阶段估计是「优中选优」,第一批、第二批上市的公司可能是科创企业中的佼佼者,因此它们带来的投资回报是非常惊人的。</p><p>今后,随着科创板的扩容,可能上市条件会相对有所放松。注册制这种政策上的创新,一开始必定会受到各方面的高度重视,会有非常严格的把关。随着数量的增加,可能上市的门槛会降低,优秀公司的占比也会下降。这样的话,它的整体投资回报率可能不会像第一年那么高。</p><p>03 A股估值体系还有非理性成分</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:你如何看待当前阶段A股与美股的相关性?有观点认为,考虑到中国经济在全球经济当中的重要性, A股上涨对于美国、欧洲等股市可能是一个利好信号,您怎么看?</p><p>李迅雷:我觉得相关性还是比较大的。比如说,美国的纳斯达克指数创历史新高,A股里面的创业板也创了近年新高。再比如说,今年上半年医药板块在纳斯达克表现比较强劲,基金经理都普遍提高配置比例,在A股市场同样也是被国内的机构投资者所看好。这反映出全球资本市场的联动性越来越大了。</p><p>这个也跟中国资本市场的开放度的提升有关。今年以来,境外机构在国内注册投资公司、证券公司的条件大大放宽了,境外资金参与A股市场的比重也显著提高。这也意味着 A股跟美股市场的联动性的提高。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:在疫情发生之前,美国股市经历了将近十一年的长期「慢牛」。现在,越来越多的国际投资者对中国市场持乐观态度。在您看来,中国市场能否也实现一段超长期的「慢牛」?</p><p>李迅雷:如果说我们这个市场发展顺利的话,我觉得也是有可能的。但是,我们一定要看清股市中的「二八分化」现象。比如,过去11年的美国纳斯达克市场中,累计涨幅前10%股票的市值占到其总市值的将近一半。这10%的股票上涨约20倍,而大部分股票都几乎没涨,甚至下跌。</p><p>中国毕竟还是一个新兴市场,我们一定要看到差距所在。如A股跟H股的价差是非常大的,基本上都有30%到50%左右。这也就是说,A股的股价水平普遍要要比H股高出30%到50%,说明A股的估值体系其实还是存在一些非理性的成分。</p><p>假设H股的估值相对合理的话,那么A股是不是存在估值偏高的问题?或者没有整体偏高,是不是存在局部偏高的问题?如果作为局部估值偏高的市场,随着境外投资者参与度的提高,估值的进一步修正是不是还会延续?</p><p>我觉得还是要看得更加长远一点,不能做简单的类比。美国股市已经有220多年的历程,而中国股市只有30年的历程,我们跟人家的差距还非常大。</p><p>04 房地产销量难创新高,人口集中看三条线</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:截至6月底,中国房地产开发投资、商品房销售面积和销售额等多个指标降幅连续5个月收窄。其中,房地产开发投资增速年内还首次转正。在经历疫情冲击的背景下,国内房地产市场为何能够快速复苏?</p><p>李迅雷:国内疫情主要的爆发期是2月和3月。4月以后疫情已经大大缓解,这与境外形成鲜明反差。二季度国内疫情基本上得到控制,所以对房地产的销售和投资都没有形成太大影响,主要影响还是在一季度。</p><p>到了二季度,房地产销售出现报复性的反弹。房地产跟普通消费不一样,它主要是刚需和投资性需求。与旅游餐饮等服务消费不同,后者「过期作废」,而疫情对于房地产的销售不会带来太大影响,对房地产开发投资的影响也不大。一季度本身就是投资淡季,一般等到二季度投资增速会回升,这是可以理解的。</p><p>但是,我发现6月的销售数据已经有点走弱了,强劲的反弹势头主要还是在5月。所以,我不认为房地产会有很大的起色。</p><p>中国房地产毕竟已经经历了20年的牛市,这在历史上是非常罕见的。尤其在2018-2019年,整个固定资产投资增速回落到5%左右,但房地产投资增速依然很高,可以说一枝独秀。这个是一个非常奇特的现象。</p><p>延续到今年的话,我想不管有没有疫情,今年的新房销量不会再创新高了。我预计,今后几年房地产销量也都很难再创新高。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:截至6月,5年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)从2019年8月的4.85%降至4.65%。与此同时,货币供应量、社会融资总量增速等指标上半年也处在较高水平。低利率和宽裕的流动性是否会支撑房价继续走高?</p><p>李迅雷:这个肯定是有一定支撑的,并且我认为利率下行趋势还没到位。最近这段时间,利率债的下跌,是因为大家都在预期宽信用,而降息的可能性似乎不大。但我觉得,下半年经济依然有下行压力,预计还是会继续降息。</p><p>如果降息的话,对于资本市场、房地产市场都是一个利好因素。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:您常常从人口流动视角分析不同城市的房地产市场。目前来看,还有哪些城市的人口趋势是有利于当地房地产市场的?</p><p>李迅雷:我先不讲房价会怎样,因为谁也说不准如今的房价水平是不是已经反映了未来的预期变化。就像股价上涨了,你说当前的股价是不是已经反映了大家对公司盈利增长的预期?我不知道。</p><p>但是,至少从2019年人口数据来看的话,人口净流入最多的省份是浙江省,其中90%的人口增量流到了杭州和宁波。而今年杭州和宁波的房价涨幅也名列全国前茅。说明房价与人口流向存在明显相关性。</p><p>我觉得整个中国人口未来会集中到三条线上。第一条线就是粤港澳大湾区,包括深圳、广州、佛山,以及珠海、东莞和惠州。第二条线是杭州湾湾区。除了杭州、宁波之外,还包括像嘉兴、绍兴。第三条线是长江经济带,东部包含了上海、南京、无锡、苏州、南通。这几个城市的人口也是净流入的。再往中游的话,主要是长沙和武汉,往西部的话主要就是重庆、成都。</p><p>未来这三条线上的城市人口还是会不断增加的,中国的大城市化进程方兴未艾,人口集中度会越来越高。</p><p>05 房地产投资回报率下降,配置金融资产是长期逻辑</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:有机构认为,居民财富正在从房地产和银行体系中走出来,朝着股市转移或者「搬家」,并且认为这会是一种长期趋势。您怎么看?您也观察到了这样的趋势吗?</p><p>李迅雷:判断这种趋势,我们要用数据来说话。从数据来看,我们没有发现就大量的资金从房地产流出,因为房价现在还比较稳定。没有确切数据可以证明资金在从楼市流到股市。至于储蓄「搬家」,居民存款也没有特别明显的减少。</p><p>但有一点,目前居民收入是略有下降,而消费是大幅下降。这表明资金从消费领域转移到投资领域。我们看到,公募基金的发行规模出现比较明显的扩大,这说明股市增量资金有相当一部分是来自于居民对公募基金的申购。</p><p>另外,今年3月以来外资出现净流入,这也是股市增量资金的一个来源。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:那么如果现在有投资者在投资房产和投资股票之间面临两难选择,您能给出一些建议吗?</p><p>李迅雷:房子价格越来越高,随着分母变大,它的投资回报率其实是在下降的。比如说,10多年前,你以每平方米5000元的价格买一套房子,可能现在涨到每平方米五万元,十倍的投资回报率;但你现在以每平米五万元买房,未来要涨到每平米十万元,即实现一倍的回报率会更有难度。而且,不是每个城市都有这样的增长潜力。另一方面,比房地产更好的那些投资工具如今也更加丰富了。</p><p>我觉得我们应该更多地去配置金融资产,这是一个长期逻辑。中国居民资产配置中,房地产的配置比重过大,大概在70%左右。美国大概30%左右。从未来大格局来讲,应该降低房地产的配置比例,增加金融资产的配置比例。金融资产里面又分为股票、债券、公募基金等产品,准金融资产里边还包括黄金等等。</p><p>我们现在其实面临着「货币多、好资产少」这样一个格局,我们应该配置的是好资产、稀缺资产。</p><p>随之而来的一个问题是:稀缺资产的估值是不是太高了?我的建议还是要找专业的人士,把钱委托给优秀的基金经理来配置,他们可以判断目前所谓好资产的估值到底是贵还是便宜。</p><p>就股票投资而言,买股票就是买未来,我们是基于未来预期来判断目前股价到底是贵还是便宜。如果说它的盈利未来能够保持每年30%到50%的增长,那么这样的股票现在很多是非常便宜的。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:从今年下半年到明年上半年,各大类资产当中您比较看好的是哪些?</p><p>李迅雷:第一个,我还是比较看好权益资产。主要是我前面讲的好公司、好的行业。这个话讲起来容易,实际操作过程中,可能大部分投资者都不具备寻找好公司、好的稀缺资产的能力。我的建议还是买那些优秀基金经理所管理的基金,这是这么多年来最重要的经验。</p><p>第二类,我看好黄金。我认为未来存在资产泡沫破灭的风险,还可能出现全球经济下行、金融动荡、甚至战争等的风险。此外,货币超发是这次疫情下的货币当局普遍做法。事实上,从1929年至今,美元纸币增长了330倍,而美国经济实际只增长了16倍,黄金存量只增长了6.7倍。从1971年开始算,美元纸币增长了21倍,美国经济实际增长2.7倍,黄金存量只增长了1.1倍。从这个角度来讲的话,黄金既是避险工具,又是投资品。</p><p>对于风险厌恶型的投资者,可以关注一些固定收益类的低风险产品,比如利率债、一些货币型产品、保本理财产品等等。</p><p>至于房地产,对于那些人口持续净流入的发达大城市,我觉得还是可以持有,如日本东京在经历了房地产泡沫破灭之后,还会创新高。不过,从大类资产的角度来看,我认为房地产不是一个很好的配置工具。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:谢谢您的分享。</p>","source":"lsy1587985706210","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中美博弈升级,下半年买股票还是房子?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中美博弈升级,下半年买股票还是房子?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-24 21:16 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw><strong>巴伦周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>李迅雷认为,疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色,投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日(周五),A股遭遇大幅调整,上证指数失守3200点,下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚,创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为,近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素,更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整,中美关系只是扰动市场的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa2149ef8a80f77e2806ac3e2644925","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141702285","content_text":"李迅雷认为,疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色,投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日(周五),A股遭遇大幅调整,上证指数失守3200点,下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚,创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为,近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素,更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整,中美关系只是扰动市场的短期因素。对于A股自3月低点以来总体回升、持续走高的态势,李迅雷认为经济和企业盈利基本面并不支持所谓的「全面牛市」。他指出,中国股市指数上涨,是由于原有估值体系正在经历修正,指数中权重较大的股票估值在走高。同时,随着中国经济结构性转型,股市正在及时地反映消费升级、新旧产业更替等趋势。「从2017年到现在为止,其实就是一个结构性的牛市。」他对《巴伦周刊》中文版说。另一方面,最受国内投资者关注的房地产市场迅速摆脱新冠疫情影响,复苏势头明显。下半年,投资者该如何在股市和房地产之间权衡?李迅雷认为,房地产销售自6月以来有所走弱,预示着疫情后房地产市场不会有太大起色。由于房价经历了长期上涨,房地产的投资回报率实际上也在下降。「长期而言,中国居民资产配置中房地产的占比过大,应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。」在李迅雷看来,我们目前面临着「货币多、好资产少」的格局。在各大类资产中,他最看好权益资产,并认为投资者应该借助专业基金经理的专业技能去发现「好的稀缺资产」。李迅雷此前曾先后在国泰君安证券、海通证券长期负责研究工作。近些年来,他对于中国经济转型、房地产市场趋势等话题的研究引发了广泛的社会反响。以下是经过编辑的采访实录:01 中美关系只是短期扰动《巴伦周刊》中文版:中美紧张关系近两日来有所升温,而A股在23日、24日连续两个交易日收低,且北向资金也连续出现净流出。您如何看待当前市场出现的调整?中美关系波动是否会对A股造成持续冲击?李迅雷:我认为中美局势是一个触发因素,但不是主要影响因素。主要因素在于,近一段时间以来产业资本减持、新股发行以及北上资金流出等,带来了一定的变化。今年以来一些股票涨幅比较大,而随着新股发行规模加大,尤其是7月比较集中,市场短期内的供需关系有了变化,也会造成一些心理影响。市场在这一过程中做出调整是正常现象,毕竟短期内冲高的幅度有些大。中美关系波动接下来不会对A股造成较大的冲击,因为大部分的变化已经在预期之内。另一方面,中美紧张关系进一步升级的可能性也并不大,两国高级代表还计划于8月会面,将会评估第一阶段贸易协议的落实,并讨论下一步如何做。所以,中美关系会带来一些扰动因素,但市场的调整更多的是市场自身的原因。以上这些都是短期因素,真正的原因还是在于估值的调整。A股市场估值目前处在一个相对均衡的水平,如果经济基本面下半年能够继续好转的话,那么市场还是应该会有上升的动力。《巴伦周刊》中文版:上证综指从3月低点大幅回升,进入7月后涨幅尤其明显。您如何看待当前A股大涨的推动因素?为什么进入7月后涨幅会明显扩大?李迅雷:对于股市涨跌,我们事后找原因的话会发现有好多原因。但问题在于,事前预测7月会出现大幅上涨是很难通过逻辑推理来实现的。不过,股市上涨的逻辑肯定是存在的。美国股市近来为什么涨那么多?在美国疫情如此严峻的情况下、在美国经济大幅度的负增长情况下,美国股市为什么表现这么好?美股从技术性熊市变成技术性牛市,而且纳斯达克指数还创了历史新高?这显然还是跟美联储的「无限量量化宽松」的货币政策有关,与美国财政部大量举债来救助企业和个人也是相关的。我觉得这是一个主要由资金推动的市场行情。美国作为一个成熟市场,况且有这么反常的表现,中国作为新兴市场出现股市上涨就并不意外。无论是资金面、技术面和基本面,中国股市都具备一定的支撑因素。资金面来讲,上半年中国的广义货币供应量(M2)增速还是比较高的,与名义GDP增速之间的缺口达到了历史较高水平。虽然我们不像美国这样大规模的放水,但是我们实际上也采取了比较宽松的货币政策,降准、降息也比较频繁。就基本面而言,在全球经济都受到疫情严重影响的情况下,中国的疫情基本上得到控制,所以经济复苏的迹象是非常明显。这对于上市公司的基本面改善也提供了一定的支撑。另外,中国居民在收入出现负增长的情况下,消费的降幅更大,导致储蓄有所增加。老百姓少消费、多投资,对股市也是有利的。02 经济转型催生结构性牛市《巴伦周刊》中文版:基于A股目前的上涨行情,有不少人认为A股正在经历一轮长期牛市或全面牛市,您怎么看待这种观点?李迅雷:我觉得A股目前出现长期牛市的观点不大能成立。我们整个经济还处在转型期,中国股市跟美国股市不一样,我们属于新兴市场。这几年我们上市公司的亏损面是在扩大的,盈利增速有所下降。目前所谓的牛市,我认为更多是对现有估值体系的一种修正——是修正而不是修复。这种估值体系修正产生了结构性的牛市。以往,A股估值体系当中绩差股、小市值股票估值较高,大市值股票的估值比较低,即「对不确定性溢价」,「对确定性折价」。现在反过来了,小市股票估值水平在往下走,大市值股票的估值水平在往上走。由于大市值股票更能够带动指数,所以这个指数是在往上走。另一方面,股价下跌的股票的数量是在增加的,因为中小市值股票在市场当中占比较大。这样的话,从2017年到现在为止,其实就是一个结构性的牛市。原先的估值体系是不合理的,给予小市值的、净资产收益率(ROE)比较低的公司比较高的估值,而ROE比较高、大市值的公司估值较低。结构性牛市另一种表现是,医药生物、电子、通讯、计算机等高科技行业代表新经济动能的股票,估值水平是在往上走的。另外,代表居民消费升级的食品饮料板块,总体估值水平也是在往上走。与此同时,传统经济板块的估值水平基本上没有太大变化,现在还是处在相对较低的估值水平。所以,这两种结构性的变化给A股带来了一种牛市的感觉。这些变化跟中国经济结构调整、转型升级是相关的。《巴伦周刊》中文版:从基本面投资的角度来看,这些行业和板块的长期投资价值也更大?李迅雷:是的。传统经济领域中,一些与消费升级明显相关的行业,估值得到了提升。最典型的比如白酒行业,估值水平从过去的十几倍市盈率已经上升到现在的二三十倍市盈率。尽管它属于传统行业,但它属于消费类的行业、不是传统的周期类行业。中国经济已经从投资主导转化为消费主导,所以消费板块连续两年的涨幅都处于领先水平。对于一些新兴行业(包括医药生物、计算机、互联网、新能源新材料等),它们的估值水平虽然不便宜,但大家更看重未来的发展前景,这也是符合逻辑、有理性成分的。这种逻辑跟过去炒小盘、炒绩差股、炒地域概念的逻辑还是有差别。《巴伦周刊》中文版:A股今年的这一轮涨势在多大程度上反映了中国经济的改善?李迅雷:我觉得对中国经济转型将是一个非常漫长的过程,没有十年、二十年年很难完成。所以,我们不要把股市上涨跟我们的经济增速变化过多联系在一起,我觉得股市的变化更多地是在反映中国经济结构的变化,而通过数学模型分析,A股指数的表现好坏跟我们经济的好坏,没有很明显的相关性。大家常说「中国股市是中国经济的晴雨表」,我觉得「晴雨表」更多是在反映经济结构,而不是反映经济的走势。现在股市里面涨得好的股票往往都是跟中国经济转型相关的,而不是跟中国经济周期相关。A股与中国经济的周期性变化关联度不大。实际上,这些年中国经济的周期特征越来越弱了,因为逆周期经济政策强度比较大、调控频率越来越高。但是,中国经济的结构性变化还是能够比较及时地在股市上反映出来。《巴伦周刊》中文版:到7月22日,科创板开板整整一年,这一年的表现是否符合您的预期?接下来科创板的投资价值如何?李迅雷:科创板在初始阶段估计是「优中选优」,第一批、第二批上市的公司可能是科创企业中的佼佼者,因此它们带来的投资回报是非常惊人的。今后,随着科创板的扩容,可能上市条件会相对有所放松。注册制这种政策上的创新,一开始必定会受到各方面的高度重视,会有非常严格的把关。随着数量的增加,可能上市的门槛会降低,优秀公司的占比也会下降。这样的话,它的整体投资回报率可能不会像第一年那么高。03 A股估值体系还有非理性成分《巴伦周刊》中文版:你如何看待当前阶段A股与美股的相关性?有观点认为,考虑到中国经济在全球经济当中的重要性, A股上涨对于美国、欧洲等股市可能是一个利好信号,您怎么看?李迅雷:我觉得相关性还是比较大的。比如说,美国的纳斯达克指数创历史新高,A股里面的创业板也创了近年新高。再比如说,今年上半年医药板块在纳斯达克表现比较强劲,基金经理都普遍提高配置比例,在A股市场同样也是被国内的机构投资者所看好。这反映出全球资本市场的联动性越来越大了。这个也跟中国资本市场的开放度的提升有关。今年以来,境外机构在国内注册投资公司、证券公司的条件大大放宽了,境外资金参与A股市场的比重也显著提高。这也意味着 A股跟美股市场的联动性的提高。《巴伦周刊》中文版:在疫情发生之前,美国股市经历了将近十一年的长期「慢牛」。现在,越来越多的国际投资者对中国市场持乐观态度。在您看来,中国市场能否也实现一段超长期的「慢牛」?李迅雷:如果说我们这个市场发展顺利的话,我觉得也是有可能的。但是,我们一定要看清股市中的「二八分化」现象。比如,过去11年的美国纳斯达克市场中,累计涨幅前10%股票的市值占到其总市值的将近一半。这10%的股票上涨约20倍,而大部分股票都几乎没涨,甚至下跌。中国毕竟还是一个新兴市场,我们一定要看到差距所在。如A股跟H股的价差是非常大的,基本上都有30%到50%左右。这也就是说,A股的股价水平普遍要要比H股高出30%到50%,说明A股的估值体系其实还是存在一些非理性的成分。假设H股的估值相对合理的话,那么A股是不是存在估值偏高的问题?或者没有整体偏高,是不是存在局部偏高的问题?如果作为局部估值偏高的市场,随着境外投资者参与度的提高,估值的进一步修正是不是还会延续?我觉得还是要看得更加长远一点,不能做简单的类比。美国股市已经有220多年的历程,而中国股市只有30年的历程,我们跟人家的差距还非常大。04 房地产销量难创新高,人口集中看三条线《巴伦周刊》中文版:截至6月底,中国房地产开发投资、商品房销售面积和销售额等多个指标降幅连续5个月收窄。其中,房地产开发投资增速年内还首次转正。在经历疫情冲击的背景下,国内房地产市场为何能够快速复苏?李迅雷:国内疫情主要的爆发期是2月和3月。4月以后疫情已经大大缓解,这与境外形成鲜明反差。二季度国内疫情基本上得到控制,所以对房地产的销售和投资都没有形成太大影响,主要影响还是在一季度。到了二季度,房地产销售出现报复性的反弹。房地产跟普通消费不一样,它主要是刚需和投资性需求。与旅游餐饮等服务消费不同,后者「过期作废」,而疫情对于房地产的销售不会带来太大影响,对房地产开发投资的影响也不大。一季度本身就是投资淡季,一般等到二季度投资增速会回升,这是可以理解的。但是,我发现6月的销售数据已经有点走弱了,强劲的反弹势头主要还是在5月。所以,我不认为房地产会有很大的起色。中国房地产毕竟已经经历了20年的牛市,这在历史上是非常罕见的。尤其在2018-2019年,整个固定资产投资增速回落到5%左右,但房地产投资增速依然很高,可以说一枝独秀。这个是一个非常奇特的现象。延续到今年的话,我想不管有没有疫情,今年的新房销量不会再创新高了。我预计,今后几年房地产销量也都很难再创新高。《巴伦周刊》中文版:截至6月,5年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)从2019年8月的4.85%降至4.65%。与此同时,货币供应量、社会融资总量增速等指标上半年也处在较高水平。低利率和宽裕的流动性是否会支撑房价继续走高?李迅雷:这个肯定是有一定支撑的,并且我认为利率下行趋势还没到位。最近这段时间,利率债的下跌,是因为大家都在预期宽信用,而降息的可能性似乎不大。但我觉得,下半年经济依然有下行压力,预计还是会继续降息。如果降息的话,对于资本市场、房地产市场都是一个利好因素。《巴伦周刊》中文版:您常常从人口流动视角分析不同城市的房地产市场。目前来看,还有哪些城市的人口趋势是有利于当地房地产市场的?李迅雷:我先不讲房价会怎样,因为谁也说不准如今的房价水平是不是已经反映了未来的预期变化。就像股价上涨了,你说当前的股价是不是已经反映了大家对公司盈利增长的预期?我不知道。但是,至少从2019年人口数据来看的话,人口净流入最多的省份是浙江省,其中90%的人口增量流到了杭州和宁波。而今年杭州和宁波的房价涨幅也名列全国前茅。说明房价与人口流向存在明显相关性。我觉得整个中国人口未来会集中到三条线上。第一条线就是粤港澳大湾区,包括深圳、广州、佛山,以及珠海、东莞和惠州。第二条线是杭州湾湾区。除了杭州、宁波之外,还包括像嘉兴、绍兴。第三条线是长江经济带,东部包含了上海、南京、无锡、苏州、南通。这几个城市的人口也是净流入的。再往中游的话,主要是长沙和武汉,往西部的话主要就是重庆、成都。未来这三条线上的城市人口还是会不断增加的,中国的大城市化进程方兴未艾,人口集中度会越来越高。05 房地产投资回报率下降,配置金融资产是长期逻辑《巴伦周刊》中文版:有机构认为,居民财富正在从房地产和银行体系中走出来,朝着股市转移或者「搬家」,并且认为这会是一种长期趋势。您怎么看?您也观察到了这样的趋势吗?李迅雷:判断这种趋势,我们要用数据来说话。从数据来看,我们没有发现就大量的资金从房地产流出,因为房价现在还比较稳定。没有确切数据可以证明资金在从楼市流到股市。至于储蓄「搬家」,居民存款也没有特别明显的减少。但有一点,目前居民收入是略有下降,而消费是大幅下降。这表明资金从消费领域转移到投资领域。我们看到,公募基金的发行规模出现比较明显的扩大,这说明股市增量资金有相当一部分是来自于居民对公募基金的申购。另外,今年3月以来外资出现净流入,这也是股市增量资金的一个来源。《巴伦周刊》中文版:那么如果现在有投资者在投资房产和投资股票之间面临两难选择,您能给出一些建议吗?李迅雷:房子价格越来越高,随着分母变大,它的投资回报率其实是在下降的。比如说,10多年前,你以每平方米5000元的价格买一套房子,可能现在涨到每平方米五万元,十倍的投资回报率;但你现在以每平米五万元买房,未来要涨到每平米十万元,即实现一倍的回报率会更有难度。而且,不是每个城市都有这样的增长潜力。另一方面,比房地产更好的那些投资工具如今也更加丰富了。我觉得我们应该更多地去配置金融资产,这是一个长期逻辑。中国居民资产配置中,房地产的配置比重过大,大概在70%左右。美国大概30%左右。从未来大格局来讲,应该降低房地产的配置比例,增加金融资产的配置比例。金融资产里面又分为股票、债券、公募基金等产品,准金融资产里边还包括黄金等等。我们现在其实面临着「货币多、好资产少」这样一个格局,我们应该配置的是好资产、稀缺资产。随之而来的一个问题是:稀缺资产的估值是不是太高了?我的建议还是要找专业的人士,把钱委托给优秀的基金经理来配置,他们可以判断目前所谓好资产的估值到底是贵还是便宜。就股票投资而言,买股票就是买未来,我们是基于未来预期来判断目前股价到底是贵还是便宜。如果说它的盈利未来能够保持每年30%到50%的增长,那么这样的股票现在很多是非常便宜的。《巴伦周刊》中文版:从今年下半年到明年上半年,各大类资产当中您比较看好的是哪些?李迅雷:第一个,我还是比较看好权益资产。主要是我前面讲的好公司、好的行业。这个话讲起来容易,实际操作过程中,可能大部分投资者都不具备寻找好公司、好的稀缺资产的能力。我的建议还是买那些优秀基金经理所管理的基金,这是这么多年来最重要的经验。第二类,我看好黄金。我认为未来存在资产泡沫破灭的风险,还可能出现全球经济下行、金融动荡、甚至战争等的风险。此外,货币超发是这次疫情下的货币当局普遍做法。事实上,从1929年至今,美元纸币增长了330倍,而美国经济实际只增长了16倍,黄金存量只增长了6.7倍。从1971年开始算,美元纸币增长了21倍,美国经济实际增长2.7倍,黄金存量只增长了1.1倍。从这个角度来讲的话,黄金既是避险工具,又是投资品。对于风险厌恶型的投资者,可以关注一些固定收益类的低风险产品,比如利率债、一些货币型产品、保本理财产品等等。至于房地产,对于那些人口持续净流入的发达大城市,我觉得还是可以持有,如日本东京在经历了房地产泡沫破灭之后,还会创新高。不过,从大类资产的角度来看,我认为房地产不是一个很好的配置工具。《巴伦周刊》中文版:谢谢您的分享。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941023826,"gmtCreate":1594736046365,"gmtModify":1704206631376,"author":{"id":"3547593815231783","authorId":"3547593815231783","name":"天幕星光","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547593815231783","idStr":"3547593815231783"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看到隔壁涨,买这个的,恐怕要失望了。庄怎么可能同时拉升两个股?","listText":"看到隔壁涨,买这个的,恐怕要失望了。庄怎么可能同时拉升两个股?","text":"看到隔壁涨,买这个的,恐怕要失望了。庄怎么可能同时拉升两个股?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941023826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941065357,"gmtCreate":1594735724579,"gmtModify":1704206623717,"author":{"id":"3547593815231783","authorId":"3547593815231783","name":"天幕星光","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547593815231783","idStr":"3547593815231783"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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