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水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

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水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-04-09

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$盘前微跌，庄家吸筹看到45

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-02-05

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$Go to the moon！

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-02-04

Go to the moon！

@淡定哥2088:血的教训啊$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-02-03

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$卖单极少，80%起飞了，20%是拉高卖货

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-27

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$看了下，底部交易量剧增真的是这个狗庄连盘前小钱都洗，太不讲究了

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-25

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$狗庄还在洗

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-23

$RLX科技(RLX)$空军入场

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-23

$英特尔(INTC)$那么大的盘，应该没有什么庄家吧

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-21

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$感谢提醒做空风险但是我还是要做空这个股票妈的坑应届毕业生我才不管你

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-15

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$很明显了，庄家吸筹。吸引空单挂住吃周末利息和周一休市利息，周五盘中必拉升。我说的，如果没有实现我就把这条删掉

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-14

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$缩量了[流泪] 不是大涨就是大跌

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-14

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$来恐吓了

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-14

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$大队长真的牛批

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-13

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$快到年报发布时间了，做空一百股，每天利息1刀，你有种磨200天，看美交所怎么说

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-13

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$买的少感觉像跟打1块2块麻将糊了把十三幺

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-06

$AMC院线(AMC)$打个p，庄家在做最表象的拉横盘了每天打两分下来，感觉差不多洗完意志不坚定的，准备起飞了

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-06

$AMC院线(AMC)$守盘这些人手续费交着不心疼吗，梗那么久

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2021-01-04

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$赶紧清盘吧利息都不够了，烦死了

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2020-12-18

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$这个垃圾股，几万美金就可以做庄家了，成交量加起来都没有一万股

水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世

2020-12-15

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$继续补仓空🈳

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Inc.(FUBO)$</a>卖单极少，80%起飞了，20%是拉高卖货","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>卖单极少，80%起飞了，20%是拉高卖货","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$卖单极少，80%起飞了，20%是拉高卖货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314587494","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464294287504557","authorId":"3464294287504557","name":"老铁来了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2464e458a80641114f6239a95fd33b5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3464294287504557","idStr":"3464294287504557"},"content":"你再看看？不像起飞","text":"你再看看？不像起飞","html":"你再看看？不像起飞"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313457532,"gmtCreate":1611747493326,"gmtModify":1703752974673,"author":{"id":"3547512979248893","authorId":"3547512979248893","name":"水稻哥哥力拔山兮气盖世","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547512979248893","idStr":"3547512979248893"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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13:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"油价雪崩背后：美国、沙特和俄罗斯的史诗级博弈","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170977802","media":"见闻IPO","summary":"导读：新的产油联盟正在成型？今天美国上午时间原油突然之间大幅跳涨，主要原因是受到了一则消息的刺激：特朗普和普京通电话商讨油价问题，并“达成共识”：同意当前的油价不符合双方的利益。虽然没有公布进一步商讨","content":"<blockquote><i><span>导读：新的产油联盟正在成型？</span></i></blockquote><p><span>今天美国上午时间原油突然之间大幅跳涨，主要原因是受到了一则消息的刺激：特朗普和普京通电话商讨油价问题，并“达成共识”：同意当前的油价不符合双方的利益。</span></p><p><span>虽然没有公布进一步商讨议程，但显然美俄之间的沟通是畅通的。一些市场人士甚至猜测，特朗普可能会给普京“让步”：比如取消或减轻对俄制裁等。</span></p><p><span>就在油价高兴了没两分钟，另一则“前脚跟后脚”的消息又将其“打回原形”：沙特阿美从明天起就将产量增加至1200万桶/日。</span></p><p><span>特朗普虽然给沙特打电话在先，并称两国特使正在商谈，但显然美国跟俄罗斯“勾搭”这件事没跟沙特说，沙特很不高兴。同时美国方面不管是媒体方面，还是国会方面，都在“数落”沙特的不是——美国13个参议员甚至集体施压沙特大使。</span></p><p><span>从一开始的沙特与俄罗斯“谈崩”、增产、油价腰斩，到逼美国进场“群殴”，前前后后仅过去1个月时间。再叠加新冠疫情的对原油需求的冲击，更是加剧了油价下跌的烈度和速度，同时也加剧了这场史诗级博弈的紧迫性。</span></p><p><span>高盛的原油研究主管认为，这场史诗级博弈的结果，或将是三方联合减产1000万桶。沙特和俄罗斯原油价格战，为何最终会让美国妥协一起减产？</span></p><p><span>了解背后的地缘和经济博弈机制，是找准抄底原油时机的关键。</span></p><p><span><b>01、沙特、俄罗斯的“底牌”</b></span></p><p><span>一开始沙特和俄罗斯“谈崩”，表面上看起来是沙特和俄罗斯之间的“互殴”，同时也看起来是沙特的一次“自杀式袭击”行动。</span></p><p><span>这一层逻辑是有事实支撑的，沙特对俄罗斯不满久矣：自2016年沙特和俄罗斯组成OPEC+联合减产以来，沙特一直在主动的承担减产的主要责任，因此沙特从2016年与俄罗斯联手减产开始就一直是“输家”——市场份额一直在缩小。而俄罗斯可以说是减产的既得利益者，因为俄罗斯的凝析油（在地下以气体形式存在，与原油是不同的品种）也被算在减产份额里面的。结果就是，俄罗斯在表面上与沙特联手减产，但只减了凝析油产量，原油产量不降反升。</span></p><p><span>图：俄罗斯与沙特的原油产量变化对比</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb559f68442df350cce6fc75a6dba077\" /></p><p><span>从这个角度上来看，沙特和俄罗斯掀桌子是早晚的事。</span></p><p><span>之所以之前没掀，一方面是沙特要在阿美上市套现之前保油价，另一方面是沙特跟俄罗斯单挑石油战，也不是对手。为什么这么说？让我们来看一下沙特和俄罗斯的底牌。</span></p><p><span>沙特将其石油产量由2月的970万桶/天大幅提升至1200万桶/天，因为价格超过腰斩，沙特的石油收入实际上是减少的，而成本因为产量增加实际又是大幅增加的。虽然牺牲收入有助于沙特在短期抢回一定的国际市场份额，但俄罗斯的原油出口多数是长期协议，且依赖管道运输，沙特其实很难通过价格战直接抢夺俄罗斯市场份额，更不可能将俄罗斯的产能逐出市场。</span></p><p><span>同时，沙特要维持财政平衡，需要油价高达83.6美元/桶，而俄罗斯只需要42.4美元/桶。所以在3月6日减产谈判破裂之后，俄罗斯称能够承受石油价格在6-10年内维持在25-30美元/桶的水平，国家财富基金超过1500亿美元，可以在长期低油价的情况下动用。毕竟俄罗斯自2006年至今，每个季度都保持经常账户盈余，已经积累了十几年的“肥肉”，过几年冬天确实不是问题。</span></p><p><span>图：俄罗斯过去十几年一直持续不断保持经常账户盈余</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaf2574d0ba147d5dd6db9e0461979f8\" /></p><p><span>相比之下，沙特就危险得多。虽然2020年1月末，沙特的外汇储备高达5014亿美元，但根据2014年油价暴跌的经验，沙特的外储消耗会非常快：当时沙特外储在2014年8月达到历史峰值的7460亿美元后，一路以月均80亿美元的速度下降，短短2年半时间内外储下降了近30%，共减少超2000亿美元。</span></p><p><span>当时IMF就预计：若按此趋势，沙特将在2020年宣告破产。如今油价比2016年时的最低点30美元/桶还要低，沙特在这个点位显然坚持不了多久，更耗不过俄罗斯。</span></p><p><span>明知是自杀，沙特为什么选择这时候跟俄罗斯撕破脸？沙特的计算公式中显然不仅仅有俄罗斯，更重要的是美国！</span></p><p><span>在沙特和俄罗斯组成OPEC+之后，最大的受益者是不参与任何减产的美国：美国在2018年时一举超越了沙特和俄罗斯，成为了全球第一大原油生产国。</span></p><p><span>图：2018年时美国超越沙特和俄罗斯，成为全球第一大原油生产国</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc946b49c6339c6c8f9d1360be1c5ba\" /></p><p><span>压垮OPEC+合作平衡的最后一根稻草，来自于这则消息：2019年12月1日，美国70年来第一次成为原油净出口国。如果说原先OPEC+减产是为了对冲美国原油自给能力的上升、对国际原油供给的需求的减少；那现在沙特和俄罗斯再继续减产，就是免费给竞争对手送市场份额。事情的本质已经发生了变化。</span></p><p><span>而且美国也已经显示出积极争抢能源市场份额的姿态：对连接俄罗斯和欧盟的北溪-2天然气管道项目百般阻挠，并借此机会对俄罗斯叠加制裁。</span></p><p><span>所以，此次沙特和俄罗斯“撕破脸”，表面上是互斗，实则是剑指美国。因为在沙特、俄罗斯和美国已经在石油市场上形成三分天下新格局的情况下，原来的OPEC+的合作模式若继续下去，受益方将不再是沙特或俄罗斯，而是美国。</span></p><p><span><b>02、美国的软肋</b></span></p><p><span>沙特和俄罗斯“撕破脸”的时点，可谓是“天作之合”。</span></p><p><span>原油价格战一开打，最脆弱的是美国页岩油厂商。目前美国页岩油公司需要48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价长期在48美元以下，很多美国页岩油产商就只能被迫退出市场。</span></p><p><span>图：沙特、俄罗斯和美国每桶原油的综合生产成本估算（单位：美元/桶）</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/796e78f51f932c2848b87eec110e6bdb\" /></p><p><span>图：WTI不同价格水平对美国页岩油产量的影响估算</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f426377dbd7134a130315b1f00b49ba\" /></p><p><span>但是这一逻辑关系和传导不会很快生效。因为页岩油公司测算的所谓成本里面很多都是“沉没成本”，油价就算只有10美元/桶，页岩油公司都要照样生产——一方面是寄希望于此后的油价回升；另一方面是能收回多少就收回多少成本；另外还有很多页岩油产商通过期货交易锁定高价交割的原油，可以暂时撑一段时间。但是，如果油价长期保持低位，美国页岩油大批量倒闭不可避免。</span></p><p><span>尽管油价下跌的连锁冲击需要一点时间才能显现，但对于美国而言的紧迫性在于，页岩油公司的债务由于预期会首先出现问题。美国页岩油生产商负债非常重，据穆迪数据，北美油气公司在未来四年面临2000亿美元的到期债务，其中仅2020年的到期额就高达400亿美元。</span></p><p><span>而这会对整个美国金融市场产生巨大的连锁冲击——能源公司是全美垃圾债市场最大的融资部门，能源垃圾债的违约预期，将提高整个垃圾债市场的融资成本，继而让很多其他靠低融资利率活着的美国僵尸公司暴毙。</span></p><p><span>图：美国能源公司垃圾债的收益率与国债收益率利差飙升，代表违约预期爆升</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a70e9a6b0cb00293b08395d03ebd865\" /></p><p><span>能源公司债不是孤立存在的真空，其与整个美国公司债市场紧密关联，公司债和公司债之间的收益率是有强正相关关系的（这主要是因为整个经济是相互关联的——一个部门出现了严重问题将影响整个产业链，继而传导至整个经济，所以公司债市场的利率关联性是以经济现实为基础的。），能源公司债的利率大幅上行将带动整个美国市场公司债利率。这也是市场上目前正在发生的事情。</span></p><p><span>图：美联储监控的美国BBB级公司债利率与国债利差变化情况</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29ded242581f1e49602f283ddbfae86\" /></p><p><span>随着利率越来越高，原先能还得起债的公司就会变得还不起（现金流没变，但利息支出更高了），特别是那些离垃圾级债券仅一步之遥的BBB级债券最为危险——这些公司债后面的现金流支撑很脆弱，一旦利率升高就会被降到垃圾级，同时利率暴涨，形成恶性循环，加速企业死亡。美国现在因为利差上升可能被降到垃圾的BBB级债券规模有3万亿美元，占整个公司债市场的50%！</span></p><p><span>图：美国BBB级债券的市场占比情况</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f68ba6512a4b89b96d195a058c0536\" /></p><p><span>所以在价格战第一波的冲击中，美国是三国杀里面最为脆弱的——其能源债一旦因此爆掉，将引爆大规模的BBB级债券收益率跟着上升，以及大规模的降级潮，继而会导致整个美国公司债危机全面爆发，其冲击力将不会亚于08年经济危机。</span></p><p><span><b>03、囚徒困境博弈</b></span></p><p><span>这也部分解释了，为什么这一次美联储会这么迅速地祭出“无上限、无底线”的QE。除了新冠影响外，低油价对金融市场造成的多米诺骨牌效应也是美联储考虑的重要因素之一。</span></p><p><span>所谓“无底线”QE是美联储设立的SMCCF（二级市场企业信贷便利），主要用来购买美国BBB级企业债以及美国企业债ETF。这相当于美联储许诺无限印钱（无上限QE）兜底企业债。受此影响，美国企业债大幅反弹。</span></p><p><span>图：美国最大的公司垃圾债ETF暴力反弹</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb1adb6c8518bd02cfc1b71249d1cc1\" /></p><p><span>从目前的情况来看，美国在低油价压迫下“妥协”的压力和紧迫性大为缓和。</span></p><p><span>而在这种情况下特朗普仍然主动给沙特和俄罗斯打电话，部分也是出于自身的政治压力：</span></p><p><span>特朗普若不采取积拯救页岩油企业的姿态，将导致其票仓的支持率流失。美国页岩油主要产区有德克萨斯州、北达科他州、新墨西哥州、科罗拉多州、怀俄明州、宾夕法尼亚州、西弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州等。</span></p><p><span>其中摇摆州有俄亥俄州、宾西法尼亚州，这两个州素来是大选决胜关键——1944年以来几乎得到俄亥俄州支持的候选人都赢得大选。若特朗普不采取对页岩油企业的支持政策，大量页岩油企业受价格战影响而破产，特朗普在关键摇摆州支持率下降的概率将加大。</span></p><p><span>但整个过程并非一蹴而就。国际原油市场的情况目前开始向囚徒困境模型发展：即最初所有参与方，不管是沙特、俄罗斯还是美国，都单纯以自身利益最大化为出发点，结果就是不论如何都要最大化原油产出。因为在没有三方统一协调的情况下，这是对各自最优、最理性的选择，这也是导致OPEC+最终破产的肇因（沙特与俄罗斯合作，但受益的是美国）。</span></p><p><span>目前阶段仍处在第一回合博弈阶段。尽管特朗普分别给沙特和俄罗斯打了电话，但三方碰头协调的阶段目前仍不见希望。</span></p><p><span>目前美国方面紧迫性缓解，随着时间的推移将进入第二回合博弈。而第二回合的看点已经不再是美国公司债危机，而是围绕原油库存展开（关于原油库存问题将在稍后文章中具体分析）。</span></p><p><span>但不管博弈的过程如何，整个过程的大方向，将向着形成全球原油供给和定价新秩序的方向发展：任何背叛的动机，都将被可能带来严重后果的前景所克服：在博弈经过反复多次之后，纳什均衡将趋向于帕累托最优——从互相背叛趋向于互相忠诚。</span></p><p><span>在这一博弈的过程中，随着合作前景的出现和破灭，原油价格还将继续巨幅地暴涨暴跌。</span></p><p><span>当然，这只是“正常”情况下的演变路径。美国和沙特及俄罗斯最终站到一起公开操控全球的石油价格，与美国想要塑造的国际形象并不吻合。“三个一个都不能少”只是一种解决方案而已，“三个剩俩”的结局一样也可以一次性解决目前原油市场的供需矛盾。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价雪崩背后：美国、沙特和俄罗斯的史诗级博弈\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083533104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/0717bf7b1e5642e9827aeffbf11eb9ad);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">见闻IPO </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-01 13:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote><i><span>导读：新的产油联盟正在成型？</span></i></blockquote><p><span>今天美国上午时间原油突然之间大幅跳涨，主要原因是受到了一则消息的刺激：特朗普和普京通电话商讨油价问题，并“达成共识”：同意当前的油价不符合双方的利益。</span></p><p><span>虽然没有公布进一步商讨议程，但显然美俄之间的沟通是畅通的。一些市场人士甚至猜测，特朗普可能会给普京“让步”：比如取消或减轻对俄制裁等。</span></p><p><span>就在油价高兴了没两分钟，另一则“前脚跟后脚”的消息又将其“打回原形”：沙特阿美从明天起就将产量增加至1200万桶/日。</span></p><p><span>特朗普虽然给沙特打电话在先，并称两国特使正在商谈，但显然美国跟俄罗斯“勾搭”这件事没跟沙特说，沙特很不高兴。同时美国方面不管是媒体方面，还是国会方面，都在“数落”沙特的不是——美国13个参议员甚至集体施压沙特大使。</span></p><p><span>从一开始的沙特与俄罗斯“谈崩”、增产、油价腰斩，到逼美国进场“群殴”，前前后后仅过去1个月时间。再叠加新冠疫情的对原油需求的冲击，更是加剧了油价下跌的烈度和速度，同时也加剧了这场史诗级博弈的紧迫性。</span></p><p><span>高盛的原油研究主管认为，这场史诗级博弈的结果，或将是三方联合减产1000万桶。沙特和俄罗斯原油价格战，为何最终会让美国妥协一起减产？</span></p><p><span>了解背后的地缘和经济博弈机制，是找准抄底原油时机的关键。</span></p><p><span><b>01、沙特、俄罗斯的“底牌”</b></span></p><p><span>一开始沙特和俄罗斯“谈崩”，表面上看起来是沙特和俄罗斯之间的“互殴”，同时也看起来是沙特的一次“自杀式袭击”行动。</span></p><p><span>这一层逻辑是有事实支撑的，沙特对俄罗斯不满久矣：自2016年沙特和俄罗斯组成OPEC+联合减产以来，沙特一直在主动的承担减产的主要责任，因此沙特从2016年与俄罗斯联手减产开始就一直是“输家”——市场份额一直在缩小。而俄罗斯可以说是减产的既得利益者，因为俄罗斯的凝析油（在地下以气体形式存在，与原油是不同的品种）也被算在减产份额里面的。结果就是，俄罗斯在表面上与沙特联手减产，但只减了凝析油产量，原油产量不降反升。</span></p><p><span>图：俄罗斯与沙特的原油产量变化对比</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb559f68442df350cce6fc75a6dba077\" /></p><p><span>从这个角度上来看，沙特和俄罗斯掀桌子是早晚的事。</span></p><p><span>之所以之前没掀，一方面是沙特要在阿美上市套现之前保油价，另一方面是沙特跟俄罗斯单挑石油战，也不是对手。为什么这么说？让我们来看一下沙特和俄罗斯的底牌。</span></p><p><span>沙特将其石油产量由2月的970万桶/天大幅提升至1200万桶/天，因为价格超过腰斩，沙特的石油收入实际上是减少的，而成本因为产量增加实际又是大幅增加的。虽然牺牲收入有助于沙特在短期抢回一定的国际市场份额，但俄罗斯的原油出口多数是长期协议，且依赖管道运输，沙特其实很难通过价格战直接抢夺俄罗斯市场份额，更不可能将俄罗斯的产能逐出市场。</span></p><p><span>同时，沙特要维持财政平衡，需要油价高达83.6美元/桶，而俄罗斯只需要42.4美元/桶。所以在3月6日减产谈判破裂之后，俄罗斯称能够承受石油价格在6-10年内维持在25-30美元/桶的水平，国家财富基金超过1500亿美元，可以在长期低油价的情况下动用。毕竟俄罗斯自2006年至今，每个季度都保持经常账户盈余，已经积累了十几年的“肥肉”，过几年冬天确实不是问题。</span></p><p><span>图：俄罗斯过去十几年一直持续不断保持经常账户盈余</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaf2574d0ba147d5dd6db9e0461979f8\" /></p><p><span>相比之下，沙特就危险得多。虽然2020年1月末，沙特的外汇储备高达5014亿美元，但根据2014年油价暴跌的经验，沙特的外储消耗会非常快：当时沙特外储在2014年8月达到历史峰值的7460亿美元后，一路以月均80亿美元的速度下降，短短2年半时间内外储下降了近30%，共减少超2000亿美元。</span></p><p><span>当时IMF就预计：若按此趋势，沙特将在2020年宣告破产。如今油价比2016年时的最低点30美元/桶还要低，沙特在这个点位显然坚持不了多久，更耗不过俄罗斯。</span></p><p><span>明知是自杀，沙特为什么选择这时候跟俄罗斯撕破脸？沙特的计算公式中显然不仅仅有俄罗斯，更重要的是美国！</span></p><p><span>在沙特和俄罗斯组成OPEC+之后，最大的受益者是不参与任何减产的美国：美国在2018年时一举超越了沙特和俄罗斯，成为了全球第一大原油生产国。</span></p><p><span>图：2018年时美国超越沙特和俄罗斯，成为全球第一大原油生产国</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc946b49c6339c6c8f9d1360be1c5ba\" /></p><p><span>压垮OPEC+合作平衡的最后一根稻草，来自于这则消息：2019年12月1日，美国70年来第一次成为原油净出口国。如果说原先OPEC+减产是为了对冲美国原油自给能力的上升、对国际原油供给的需求的减少；那现在沙特和俄罗斯再继续减产，就是免费给竞争对手送市场份额。事情的本质已经发生了变化。</span></p><p><span>而且美国也已经显示出积极争抢能源市场份额的姿态：对连接俄罗斯和欧盟的北溪-2天然气管道项目百般阻挠，并借此机会对俄罗斯叠加制裁。</span></p><p><span>所以，此次沙特和俄罗斯“撕破脸”，表面上是互斗，实则是剑指美国。因为在沙特、俄罗斯和美国已经在石油市场上形成三分天下新格局的情况下，原来的OPEC+的合作模式若继续下去，受益方将不再是沙特或俄罗斯，而是美国。</span></p><p><span><b>02、美国的软肋</b></span></p><p><span>沙特和俄罗斯“撕破脸”的时点，可谓是“天作之合”。</span></p><p><span>原油价格战一开打，最脆弱的是美国页岩油厂商。目前美国页岩油公司需要48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价长期在48美元以下，很多美国页岩油产商就只能被迫退出市场。</span></p><p><span>图：沙特、俄罗斯和美国每桶原油的综合生产成本估算（单位：美元/桶）</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/796e78f51f932c2848b87eec110e6bdb\" /></p><p><span>图：WTI不同价格水平对美国页岩油产量的影响估算</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f426377dbd7134a130315b1f00b49ba\" /></p><p><span>但是这一逻辑关系和传导不会很快生效。因为页岩油公司测算的所谓成本里面很多都是“沉没成本”，油价就算只有10美元/桶，页岩油公司都要照样生产——一方面是寄希望于此后的油价回升；另一方面是能收回多少就收回多少成本；另外还有很多页岩油产商通过期货交易锁定高价交割的原油，可以暂时撑一段时间。但是，如果油价长期保持低位，美国页岩油大批量倒闭不可避免。</span></p><p><span>尽管油价下跌的连锁冲击需要一点时间才能显现，但对于美国而言的紧迫性在于，页岩油公司的债务由于预期会首先出现问题。美国页岩油生产商负债非常重，据穆迪数据，北美油气公司在未来四年面临2000亿美元的到期债务，其中仅2020年的到期额就高达400亿美元。</span></p><p><span>而这会对整个美国金融市场产生巨大的连锁冲击——能源公司是全美垃圾债市场最大的融资部门，能源垃圾债的违约预期，将提高整个垃圾债市场的融资成本，继而让很多其他靠低融资利率活着的美国僵尸公司暴毙。</span></p><p><span>图：美国能源公司垃圾债的收益率与国债收益率利差飙升，代表违约预期爆升</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a70e9a6b0cb00293b08395d03ebd865\" /></p><p><span>能源公司债不是孤立存在的真空，其与整个美国公司债市场紧密关联，公司债和公司债之间的收益率是有强正相关关系的（这主要是因为整个经济是相互关联的——一个部门出现了严重问题将影响整个产业链，继而传导至整个经济，所以公司债市场的利率关联性是以经济现实为基础的。），能源公司债的利率大幅上行将带动整个美国市场公司债利率。这也是市场上目前正在发生的事情。</span></p><p><span>图：美联储监控的美国BBB级公司债利率与国债利差变化情况</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29ded242581f1e49602f283ddbfae86\" /></p><p><span>随着利率越来越高，原先能还得起债的公司就会变得还不起（现金流没变，但利息支出更高了），特别是那些离垃圾级债券仅一步之遥的BBB级债券最为危险——这些公司债后面的现金流支撑很脆弱，一旦利率升高就会被降到垃圾级，同时利率暴涨，形成恶性循环，加速企业死亡。美国现在因为利差上升可能被降到垃圾的BBB级债券规模有3万亿美元，占整个公司债市场的50%！</span></p><p><span>图：美国BBB级债券的市场占比情况</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f68ba6512a4b89b96d195a058c0536\" /></p><p><span>所以在价格战第一波的冲击中，美国是三国杀里面最为脆弱的——其能源债一旦因此爆掉，将引爆大规模的BBB级债券收益率跟着上升，以及大规模的降级潮，继而会导致整个美国公司债危机全面爆发，其冲击力将不会亚于08年经济危机。</span></p><p><span><b>03、囚徒困境博弈</b></span></p><p><span>这也部分解释了，为什么这一次美联储会这么迅速地祭出“无上限、无底线”的QE。除了新冠影响外，低油价对金融市场造成的多米诺骨牌效应也是美联储考虑的重要因素之一。</span></p><p><span>所谓“无底线”QE是美联储设立的SMCCF（二级市场企业信贷便利），主要用来购买美国BBB级企业债以及美国企业债ETF。这相当于美联储许诺无限印钱（无上限QE）兜底企业债。受此影响，美国企业债大幅反弹。</span></p><p><span>图：美国最大的公司垃圾债ETF暴力反弹</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb1adb6c8518bd02cfc1b71249d1cc1\" /></p><p><span>从目前的情况来看，美国在低油价压迫下“妥协”的压力和紧迫性大为缓和。</span></p><p><span>而在这种情况下特朗普仍然主动给沙特和俄罗斯打电话，部分也是出于自身的政治压力：</span></p><p><span>特朗普若不采取积拯救页岩油企业的姿态，将导致其票仓的支持率流失。美国页岩油主要产区有德克萨斯州、北达科他州、新墨西哥州、科罗拉多州、怀俄明州、宾夕法尼亚州、西弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州等。</span></p><p><span>其中摇摆州有俄亥俄州、宾西法尼亚州，这两个州素来是大选决胜关键——1944年以来几乎得到俄亥俄州支持的候选人都赢得大选。若特朗普不采取对页岩油企业的支持政策，大量页岩油企业受价格战影响而破产，特朗普在关键摇摆州支持率下降的概率将加大。</span></p><p><span>但整个过程并非一蹴而就。国际原油市场的情况目前开始向囚徒困境模型发展：即最初所有参与方，不管是沙特、俄罗斯还是美国，都单纯以自身利益最大化为出发点，结果就是不论如何都要最大化原油产出。因为在没有三方统一协调的情况下，这是对各自最优、最理性的选择，这也是导致OPEC+最终破产的肇因（沙特与俄罗斯合作，但受益的是美国）。</span></p><p><span>目前阶段仍处在第一回合博弈阶段。尽管特朗普分别给沙特和俄罗斯打了电话，但三方碰头协调的阶段目前仍不见希望。</span></p><p><span>目前美国方面紧迫性缓解，随着时间的推移将进入第二回合博弈。而第二回合的看点已经不再是美国公司债危机，而是围绕原油库存展开（关于原油库存问题将在稍后文章中具体分析）。</span></p><p><span>但不管博弈的过程如何，整个过程的大方向，将向着形成全球原油供给和定价新秩序的方向发展：任何背叛的动机，都将被可能带来严重后果的前景所克服：在博弈经过反复多次之后，纳什均衡将趋向于帕累托最优——从互相背叛趋向于互相忠诚。</span></p><p><span>在这一博弈的过程中，随着合作前景的出现和破灭，原油价格还将继续巨幅地暴涨暴跌。</span></p><p><span>当然，这只是“正常”情况下的演变路径。美国和沙特及俄罗斯最终站到一起公开操控全球的石油价格，与美国想要塑造的国际形象并不吻合。“三个一个都不能少”只是一种解决方案而已，“三个剩俩”的结局一样也可以一次性解决目前原油市场的供需矛盾。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170977802","content_text":"导读：新的产油联盟正在成型？今天美国上午时间原油突然之间大幅跳涨，主要原因是受到了一则消息的刺激：特朗普和普京通电话商讨油价问题，并“达成共识”：同意当前的油价不符合双方的利益。虽然没有公布进一步商讨议程，但显然美俄之间的沟通是畅通的。一些市场人士甚至猜测，特朗普可能会给普京“让步”：比如取消或减轻对俄制裁等。就在油价高兴了没两分钟，另一则“前脚跟后脚”的消息又将其“打回原形”：沙特阿美从明天起就将产量增加至1200万桶/日。特朗普虽然给沙特打电话在先，并称两国特使正在商谈，但显然美国跟俄罗斯“勾搭”这件事没跟沙特说，沙特很不高兴。同时美国方面不管是媒体方面，还是国会方面，都在“数落”沙特的不是——美国13个参议员甚至集体施压沙特大使。从一开始的沙特与俄罗斯“谈崩”、增产、油价腰斩，到逼美国进场“群殴”，前前后后仅过去1个月时间。再叠加新冠疫情的对原油需求的冲击，更是加剧了油价下跌的烈度和速度，同时也加剧了这场史诗级博弈的紧迫性。高盛的原油研究主管认为，这场史诗级博弈的结果，或将是三方联合减产1000万桶。沙特和俄罗斯原油价格战，为何最终会让美国妥协一起减产？了解背后的地缘和经济博弈机制，是找准抄底原油时机的关键。01、沙特、俄罗斯的“底牌”一开始沙特和俄罗斯“谈崩”，表面上看起来是沙特和俄罗斯之间的“互殴”，同时也看起来是沙特的一次“自杀式袭击”行动。这一层逻辑是有事实支撑的，沙特对俄罗斯不满久矣：自2016年沙特和俄罗斯组成OPEC+联合减产以来，沙特一直在主动的承担减产的主要责任，因此沙特从2016年与俄罗斯联手减产开始就一直是“输家”——市场份额一直在缩小。而俄罗斯可以说是减产的既得利益者，因为俄罗斯的凝析油（在地下以气体形式存在，与原油是不同的品种）也被算在减产份额里面的。结果就是，俄罗斯在表面上与沙特联手减产，但只减了凝析油产量，原油产量不降反升。图：俄罗斯与沙特的原油产量变化对比从这个角度上来看，沙特和俄罗斯掀桌子是早晚的事。之所以之前没掀，一方面是沙特要在阿美上市套现之前保油价，另一方面是沙特跟俄罗斯单挑石油战，也不是对手。为什么这么说？让我们来看一下沙特和俄罗斯的底牌。沙特将其石油产量由2月的970万桶/天大幅提升至1200万桶/天，因为价格超过腰斩，沙特的石油收入实际上是减少的，而成本因为产量增加实际又是大幅增加的。虽然牺牲收入有助于沙特在短期抢回一定的国际市场份额，但俄罗斯的原油出口多数是长期协议，且依赖管道运输，沙特其实很难通过价格战直接抢夺俄罗斯市场份额，更不可能将俄罗斯的产能逐出市场。同时，沙特要维持财政平衡，需要油价高达83.6美元/桶，而俄罗斯只需要42.4美元/桶。所以在3月6日减产谈判破裂之后，俄罗斯称能够承受石油价格在6-10年内维持在25-30美元/桶的水平，国家财富基金超过1500亿美元，可以在长期低油价的情况下动用。毕竟俄罗斯自2006年至今，每个季度都保持经常账户盈余，已经积累了十几年的“肥肉”，过几年冬天确实不是问题。图：俄罗斯过去十几年一直持续不断保持经常账户盈余相比之下，沙特就危险得多。虽然2020年1月末，沙特的外汇储备高达5014亿美元，但根据2014年油价暴跌的经验，沙特的外储消耗会非常快：当时沙特外储在2014年8月达到历史峰值的7460亿美元后，一路以月均80亿美元的速度下降，短短2年半时间内外储下降了近30%，共减少超2000亿美元。当时IMF就预计：若按此趋势，沙特将在2020年宣告破产。如今油价比2016年时的最低点30美元/桶还要低，沙特在这个点位显然坚持不了多久，更耗不过俄罗斯。明知是自杀，沙特为什么选择这时候跟俄罗斯撕破脸？沙特的计算公式中显然不仅仅有俄罗斯，更重要的是美国！在沙特和俄罗斯组成OPEC+之后，最大的受益者是不参与任何减产的美国：美国在2018年时一举超越了沙特和俄罗斯，成为了全球第一大原油生产国。图：2018年时美国超越沙特和俄罗斯，成为全球第一大原油生产国压垮OPEC+合作平衡的最后一根稻草，来自于这则消息：2019年12月1日，美国70年来第一次成为原油净出口国。如果说原先OPEC+减产是为了对冲美国原油自给能力的上升、对国际原油供给的需求的减少；那现在沙特和俄罗斯再继续减产，就是免费给竞争对手送市场份额。事情的本质已经发生了变化。而且美国也已经显示出积极争抢能源市场份额的姿态：对连接俄罗斯和欧盟的北溪-2天然气管道项目百般阻挠，并借此机会对俄罗斯叠加制裁。所以，此次沙特和俄罗斯“撕破脸”，表面上是互斗，实则是剑指美国。因为在沙特、俄罗斯和美国已经在石油市场上形成三分天下新格局的情况下，原来的OPEC+的合作模式若继续下去，受益方将不再是沙特或俄罗斯，而是美国。02、美国的软肋沙特和俄罗斯“撕破脸”的时点，可谓是“天作之合”。原油价格战一开打，最脆弱的是美国页岩油厂商。目前美国页岩油公司需要48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价长期在48美元以下，很多美国页岩油产商就只能被迫退出市场。图：沙特、俄罗斯和美国每桶原油的综合生产成本估算（单位：美元/桶）图：WTI不同价格水平对美国页岩油产量的影响估算但是这一逻辑关系和传导不会很快生效。因为页岩油公司测算的所谓成本里面很多都是“沉没成本”，油价就算只有10美元/桶，页岩油公司都要照样生产——一方面是寄希望于此后的油价回升；另一方面是能收回多少就收回多少成本；另外还有很多页岩油产商通过期货交易锁定高价交割的原油，可以暂时撑一段时间。但是，如果油价长期保持低位，美国页岩油大批量倒闭不可避免。尽管油价下跌的连锁冲击需要一点时间才能显现，但对于美国而言的紧迫性在于，页岩油公司的债务由于预期会首先出现问题。美国页岩油生产商负债非常重，据穆迪数据，北美油气公司在未来四年面临2000亿美元的到期债务，其中仅2020年的到期额就高达400亿美元。而这会对整个美国金融市场产生巨大的连锁冲击——能源公司是全美垃圾债市场最大的融资部门，能源垃圾债的违约预期，将提高整个垃圾债市场的融资成本，继而让很多其他靠低融资利率活着的美国僵尸公司暴毙。图：美国能源公司垃圾债的收益率与国债收益率利差飙升，代表违约预期爆升能源公司债不是孤立存在的真空，其与整个美国公司债市场紧密关联，公司债和公司债之间的收益率是有强正相关关系的（这主要是因为整个经济是相互关联的——一个部门出现了严重问题将影响整个产业链，继而传导至整个经济，所以公司债市场的利率关联性是以经济现实为基础的。），能源公司债的利率大幅上行将带动整个美国市场公司债利率。这也是市场上目前正在发生的事情。图：美联储监控的美国BBB级公司债利率与国债利差变化情况随着利率越来越高，原先能还得起债的公司就会变得还不起（现金流没变，但利息支出更高了），特别是那些离垃圾级债券仅一步之遥的BBB级债券最为危险——这些公司债后面的现金流支撑很脆弱，一旦利率升高就会被降到垃圾级，同时利率暴涨，形成恶性循环，加速企业死亡。美国现在因为利差上升可能被降到垃圾的BBB级债券规模有3万亿美元，占整个公司债市场的50%！图：美国BBB级债券的市场占比情况所以在价格战第一波的冲击中，美国是三国杀里面最为脆弱的——其能源债一旦因此爆掉，将引爆大规模的BBB级债券收益率跟着上升，以及大规模的降级潮，继而会导致整个美国公司债危机全面爆发，其冲击力将不会亚于08年经济危机。03、囚徒困境博弈这也部分解释了，为什么这一次美联储会这么迅速地祭出“无上限、无底线”的QE。除了新冠影响外，低油价对金融市场造成的多米诺骨牌效应也是美联储考虑的重要因素之一。所谓“无底线”QE是美联储设立的SMCCF（二级市场企业信贷便利），主要用来购买美国BBB级企业债以及美国企业债ETF。这相当于美联储许诺无限印钱（无上限QE）兜底企业债。受此影响，美国企业债大幅反弹。图：美国最大的公司垃圾债ETF暴力反弹从目前的情况来看，美国在低油价压迫下“妥协”的压力和紧迫性大为缓和。而在这种情况下特朗普仍然主动给沙特和俄罗斯打电话，部分也是出于自身的政治压力：特朗普若不采取积拯救页岩油企业的姿态，将导致其票仓的支持率流失。美国页岩油主要产区有德克萨斯州、北达科他州、新墨西哥州、科罗拉多州、怀俄明州、宾夕法尼亚州、西弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州等。其中摇摆州有俄亥俄州、宾西法尼亚州，这两个州素来是大选决胜关键——1944年以来几乎得到俄亥俄州支持的候选人都赢得大选。若特朗普不采取对页岩油企业的支持政策，大量页岩油企业受价格战影响而破产，特朗普在关键摇摆州支持率下降的概率将加大。但整个过程并非一蹴而就。国际原油市场的情况目前开始向囚徒困境模型发展：即最初所有参与方，不管是沙特、俄罗斯还是美国，都单纯以自身利益最大化为出发点，结果就是不论如何都要最大化原油产出。因为在没有三方统一协调的情况下，这是对各自最优、最理性的选择，这也是导致OPEC+最终破产的肇因（沙特与俄罗斯合作，但受益的是美国）。目前阶段仍处在第一回合博弈阶段。尽管特朗普分别给沙特和俄罗斯打了电话，但三方碰头协调的阶段目前仍不见希望。目前美国方面紧迫性缓解，随着时间的推移将进入第二回合博弈。而第二回合的看点已经不再是美国公司债危机，而是围绕原油库存展开（关于原油库存问题将在稍后文章中具体分析）。但不管博弈的过程如何，整个过程的大方向，将向着形成全球原油供给和定价新秩序的方向发展：任何背叛的动机，都将被可能带来严重后果的前景所克服：在博弈经过反复多次之后，纳什均衡将趋向于帕累托最优——从互相背叛趋向于互相忠诚。在这一博弈的过程中，随着合作前景的出现和破灭，原油价格还将继续巨幅地暴涨暴跌。当然，这只是“正常”情况下的演变路径。美国和沙特及俄罗斯最终站到一起公开操控全球的石油价格，与美国想要塑造的国际形象并不吻合。“三个一个都不能少”只是一种解决方案而已，“三个剩俩”的结局一样也可以一次性解决目前原油市场的供需矛盾。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}