qqa的个人主页 - 老虎社区

qqa

qqa

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IP属地：天津

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10主题

0勋章

2022-02-10

[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-14

yhvvgggg

2021-05-10

$小米集团-W(01810)$哈哈

2021-05-07

$知乎(ZH)$坚持到底

2021-04-26

$知乎(ZH)$坛坛罐罐滚滚滚滚

2021-04-25

$知乎(ZH)$yygggggg

2021-04-22

$知乎(ZH)$uyyyyy

2021-04-20

太惨了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-12

还活着就是不喜欢的

2021-04-11

$知乎(ZH)$坚持

2021-04-01

期待心动公司

2021-03-31

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-30

今天我已经行走

2021-03-28

$知乎(ZH)$坚持

2021-03-26

百度肯定还可以

2021-03-23

美股加油，我看好你

2021-03-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

公司百科：奥驰亚

2021-03-19

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎周报:美股料已进入年内二次买入的绝佳时机

2021-03-19

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@FinMelon:是谁按下了光伏的核按钮？

2021-03-19

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@美股之家:2021年第10周美股IPO预告：关注重磅COUPANG、Roblox；中概股聚好商城、第一高中上市

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style><b>公司简介</b></p><p style>奥驰亚公司是世界第一大跨国烟草公司，是烟草巨头菲利浦·莫里斯(Philip Morris)的母公司、“万宝路”香烟品牌的拥有者，也是当今世界卷烟市场的NO.1。</p><p style>公司在2007年1月23日改现名，同年3月30日卡夫食品从奥驰亚分离出来。2008年3月28日菲利普·莫里斯国际也从奥驰亚独立。</p><p style>公司主营业务产品是烟制品。</p><p style><b>首席执行官</b></p><p style>Martin J. Barrington：公司董事长，首席执行官，总裁。</p><ul><li>1993年加入奥驰亚之前，在政府和私营部门从事法律工作，加入奥驰亚后担任集团公司及其运营公司的多个高级管理职位。包括担任菲利普莫里斯美国公司和菲利普莫里斯国际公司的总顾问和高级副总裁，以及菲利普莫里斯美国企业责任执行副总裁。</li><li>2012年1月26日被任命为本公司董事。</li></ul><p style><b>主营构成（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d322411d05ccdf2cfc021878213609\" /></p><p style><b>净资产收益率（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c029c5f5e4c0ff7adbef5b4ae166d300\" /></p><p style>净资产收益率是公司税后利润除以净资产得到的百分比率，该指标反映股东权益的收益水平，用以衡量公司运用自有资本的效率。公司2016财年年报净资产收益率为181.97%，往年同期为177.84%。</p><p style><b>销售毛利率（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2216c95fc150aa1f3e150332c7440f5\" /></p><p style>销售毛利率，是一个衡量盈利能力的指标，该数字越高则说明企业的盈利能力越强，控制成本的能力越强。公司2016财年的销售毛利率为45.02%，往年同期为43.70%。</p><p style><b>近五年总资产收益率（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb85f0a218fee3dac0f7211f5cf98b9\" /></p><p style>总资产收益率是指公司净利润与平均资产总额的百分比。该指标反映的是公司运用全部资产所获得利润的水平，即公司每占用1元的资产平均能获得多少元的利润。公司2016财年的总资产收益率为35.29%，往年同期为15.64%。</p><p style><b>偿债能力之资产负债率（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce0f0c770328a4559025365279625116\" /></p><p style>资产负债率是期末负债总额除以资产总额的百分比，也就是负债总额与资产总额的比例关系。资产负债率反映在总资产中有多大比例是通过借债来筹资的，也可以衡量企业在清算时保护债权人利益的程度。公司2016财年的资产负债率为72.11%，往年在90%左右。</p><p style><b>近五年现金流情况（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87eea4bcb93f6145019e9e501ddd3ca\" /></p><p style>公司现金流相当优秀，筹资、投资活动连续五年净流出，且经营活动现金流可以正向覆盖。</p><p style><b>#美股百科#</b></p>","is_hot":false,"insert_time":1534848790000,"update_time":1534848790000,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48eecc05dc716d5b25d457d392eb34e9?op=imageView2&mode=1&width=120","stock_code":[{"market":"US","symbol":"MO"}],"retrieval_id":["A","M"]},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327551979,"gmtCreate":1616112329991,"gmtModify":1616112329991,"author":{"id":"3547175021781178","authorId":"3547175021781178","name":"qqa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe4bb8e0da563534d1a3309c88bf5f2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547175021781178","idStr":"3547175021781178"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327551979","repostId":"328513397","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":328513397,"gmtCreate":1615539753815,"gmtModify":1703490630870,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"美股料已进入年内二次买入的绝佳时机","htmlText":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a1820120ae55d9fe2a73c2acd766014","width":"1920","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328513397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327553656,"gmtCreate":1616112288075,"gmtModify":1616112288075,"author":{"id":"3547175021781178","authorId":"3547175021781178","name":"qqa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe4bb8e0da563534d1a3309c88bf5f2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547175021781178","idStr":"3547175021781178"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327553656","repostId":"329935946","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":329935946,"gmtCreate":1615196929585,"gmtModify":1703485503942,"author":{"id":"3494295154959832","authorId":"3494295154959832","name":"FinMelon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eef68a536f68680437ea6627d1d64b6e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494295154959832","idStr":"3494295154959832"},"themes":[],"title":"是谁按下了光伏的核按钮？","htmlText":"光伏市场近况一览：最近两周的股市可谓是一片狼藉，各大版块都有不同程度的下跌，作为去年超级强势的龙头大哥“光伏”也按下了核按钮，整个光伏板块无一幸免。截至A股收盘，隆基股份（601012）作为光伏的龙头再度跌停，通威股份（600438）和阳光电源（300274）也分别跌超9%和8%，整个板块跌超近5%。惨烈数据见下图行情数据源自 Wind再来看一下港股市场年前热门的光伏概念股，保利协鑫能源（3800.HK）和新特能源（1799.HK）；截至港股收盘，分别跌超近25.69%和18.55%。较近期最高点分别跌超40%和48%，近乎斩半。行情数据源自Wind行情数据源自Wind核按钮启动者：那么为什么光伏会跌得如此惨烈，又是谁按下了光伏的核按钮呢？最大的可能性是3月4日国家能源综合司发布的一个文件，《关于2021年风电、光伏发电开发建设有关事项的通知（征求意见稿）》，因为征求意见很高，那么按照这个征求意见稿里面的总体要求，“2021年，风电、光伏发电发电量占全社会用电量的比重达到11%左右”。信息源自中国光伏行业协会网站可能很多人单纯从字眼看这个文件会觉得，难道这不是一件好事吗？那么实际上风电、光伏发电发电量占全社会用电的比重达11%左右，那么11%左右是个什么样的概念呢？先来看一组2020年我国的用电数据。2020年全国全社会用电量达7.5万亿千瓦时，较2019年同比增长了3.1%。数据源自国家能源局合理化假定及运算：由于2020年受疫情影响，2020年用电量同比增长的速度较2019年的4.5%其实是放缓了的。假定我们可以预估今年经济发展的增速会加快，那么2021年用电量会增加4%，2021年全社会电量应该会达到7.8万亿千瓦时。所以说如果光伏和风电合计占比11%的话，也就是8592.6亿千瓦时。这个数字看起来很多，但实际上如果我们对比一下2020年并网风电装机容量，实际已经到了","listText":"光伏市场近况一览：最近两周的股市可谓是一片狼藉，各大版块都有不同程度的下跌，作为去年超级强势的龙头大哥“光伏”也按下了核按钮，整个光伏板块无一幸免。截至A股收盘，隆基股份（601012）作为光伏的龙头再度跌停，通威股份（600438）和阳光电源（300274）也分别跌超9%和8%，整个板块跌超近5%。惨烈数据见下图行情数据源自 Wind再来看一下港股市场年前热门的光伏概念股，保利协鑫能源（3800.HK）和新特能源（1799.HK）；截至港股收盘，分别跌超近25.69%和18.55%。较近期最高点分别跌超40%和48%，近乎斩半。行情数据源自Wind行情数据源自Wind核按钮启动者：那么为什么光伏会跌得如此惨烈，又是谁按下了光伏的核按钮呢？最大的可能性是3月4日国家能源综合司发布的一个文件，《关于2021年风电、光伏发电开发建设有关事项的通知（征求意见稿）》，因为征求意见很高，那么按照这个征求意见稿里面的总体要求，“2021年，风电、光伏发电发电量占全社会用电量的比重达到11%左右”。信息源自中国光伏行业协会网站可能很多人单纯从字眼看这个文件会觉得，难道这不是一件好事吗？那么实际上风电、光伏发电发电量占全社会用电的比重达11%左右，那么11%左右是个什么样的概念呢？先来看一组2020年我国的用电数据。2020年全国全社会用电量达7.5万亿千瓦时，较2019年同比增长了3.1%。数据源自国家能源局合理化假定及运算：由于2020年受疫情影响，2020年用电量同比增长的速度较2019年的4.5%其实是放缓了的。假定我们可以预估今年经济发展的增速会加快，那么2021年用电量会增加4%，2021年全社会电量应该会达到7.8万亿千瓦时。所以说如果光伏和风电合计占比11%的话，也就是8592.6亿千瓦时。这个数字看起来很多，但实际上如果我们对比一下2020年并网风电装机容量，实际已经到了","text":"光伏市场近况一览：最近两周的股市可谓是一片狼藉，各大版块都有不同程度的下跌，作为去年超级强势的龙头大哥“光伏”也按下了核按钮，整个光伏板块无一幸免。截至A股收盘，隆基股份（601012）作为光伏的龙头再度跌停，通威股份（600438）和阳光电源（300274）也分别跌超9%和8%，整个板块跌超近5%。惨烈数据见下图行情数据源自 Wind再来看一下港股市场年前热门的光伏概念股，保利协鑫能源（3800.HK）和新特能源（1799.HK）；截至港股收盘，分别跌超近25.69%和18.55%。较近期最高点分别跌超40%和48%，近乎斩半。行情数据源自Wind行情数据源自Wind核按钮启动者：那么为什么光伏会跌得如此惨烈，又是谁按下了光伏的核按钮呢？最大的可能性是3月4日国家能源综合司发布的一个文件，《关于2021年风电、光伏发电开发建设有关事项的通知（征求意见稿）》，因为征求意见很高，那么按照这个征求意见稿里面的总体要求，“2021年，风电、光伏发电发电量占全社会用电量的比重达到11%左右”。信息源自中国光伏行业协会网站可能很多人单纯从字眼看这个文件会觉得，难道这不是一件好事吗？那么实际上风电、光伏发电发电量占全社会用电的比重达11%左右，那么11%左右是个什么样的概念呢？先来看一组2020年我国的用电数据。2020年全国全社会用电量达7.5万亿千瓦时，较2019年同比增长了3.1%。数据源自国家能源局合理化假定及运算：由于2020年受疫情影响，2020年用电量同比增长的速度较2019年的4.5%其实是放缓了的。假定我们可以预估今年经济发展的增速会加快，那么2021年用电量会增加4%，2021年全社会电量应该会达到7.8万亿千瓦时。所以说如果光伏和风电合计占比11%的话，也就是8592.6亿千瓦时。这个数字看起来很多，但实际上如果我们对比一下2020年并网风电装机容量，实际已经到了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c2daea393b324809f6a7337fca26eff","width":"688","height":"401"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a3616b3c82d2a5f6a90ff9f850315ea","width":"569","height":"148"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381af97aa60d3fafcb973e97b80c253","width":"688","height":"255"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329935946","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327553969,"gmtCreate":1616112269451,"gmtModify":1616112269451,"author":{"id":"3547175021781178","authorId":"3547175021781178","name":"qqa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe4bb8e0da563534d1a3309c88bf5f2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547175021781178","idStr":"3547175021781178"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327553969","repostId":"320453416","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":320453416,"gmtCreate":1615170237135,"gmtModify":1703485141070,"author":{"id":"10790722010898","authorId":"10790722010898","name":"美股之家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a72f7d16c06b759c1ceb59ddc3be2d8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"10790722010898","idStr":"10790722010898"},"themes":[],"title":"2021年第10周美股IPO预告：关注重磅COUPANG、Roblox；中概股聚好商城、第一高中上市","htmlText":"作者公众号：美股百科本周截止目前，共有6家公司确定IPO上市日期，包括：聚好商城(JWEL)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWEL\">$Jowell Global Ltd.(JWEL)$</a> 、Roblox Corp(RBLX)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a> 、COUPANG(CPNG)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a> 、第一高中(FHS)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FHS\">$第一高中教育(FHS)$</a> 、Hayward(HAYW)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAYW\">$Hayward Holdings, Inc.(HAYW)$</a> 和JOANN Inc.(JOAN)。此外，以色列3D打印肉类技术开发商 Meat-Tech 3D(MITC)也有可能本周上市，目前仍未确定日期。一、3/10/2021（三）IPO新股1、中概股 聚好商城Jowell Global Ltd.(JWEL)聚好商城（聚好全球股份有限公司）Jowell Global Ltd.(NASDAQ:JWEL)成立于2012年，总部位于上海，全职雇员110人，是隆力奇旗下综合电商平台，提供化妆品、健康、营养补品以及家用产品电子，提供自营品牌产品以及来自200多个制造商的国际和国内品牌产品。聚好商城计划于 3/10/2021 IPO上市登录纳斯达克发，发行价7","listText":"作者公众号：美股百科本周截止目前，共有6家公司确定IPO上市日期，包括：聚好商城(JWEL)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWEL\">$Jowell Global Ltd.(JWEL)$</a> 、Roblox Corp(RBLX)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a> 、COUPANG(CPNG)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a> 、第一高中(FHS)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FHS\">$第一高中教育(FHS)$</a> 、Hayward(HAYW)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAYW\">$Hayward Holdings, Inc.(HAYW)$</a> 和JOANN Inc.(JOAN)。此外，以色列3D打印肉类技术开发商 Meat-Tech 3D(MITC)也有可能本周上市，目前仍未确定日期。一、3/10/2021（三）IPO新股1、中概股 聚好商城Jowell Global Ltd.(JWEL)聚好商城（聚好全球股份有限公司）Jowell Global Ltd.(NASDAQ:JWEL)成立于2012年，总部位于上海，全职雇员110人，是隆力奇旗下综合电商平台，提供化妆品、健康、营养补品以及家用产品电子，提供自营品牌产品以及来自200多个制造商的国际和国内品牌产品。聚好商城计划于 3/10/2021 IPO上市登录纳斯达克发，发行价7","text":"作者公众号：美股百科本周截止目前，共有6家公司确定IPO上市日期，包括：聚好商城(JWEL)$Jowell Global Ltd.(JWEL)$ 、Roblox Corp(RBLX)$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ 、COUPANG(CPNG)$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$ 、第一高中(FHS)$第一高中教育(FHS)$ 、Hayward(HAYW)$Hayward Holdings, Inc.(HAYW)$ 和JOANN Inc.(JOAN)。此外，以色列3D打印肉类技术开发商 Meat-Tech 3D(MITC)也有可能本周上市，目前仍未确定日期。一、3/10/2021（三）IPO新股1、中概股 聚好商城Jowell Global Ltd.(JWEL)聚好商城（聚好全球股份有限公司）Jowell Global Ltd.(NASDAQ:JWEL)成立于2012年，总部位于上海，全职雇员110人，是隆力奇旗下综合电商平台，提供化妆品、健康、营养补品以及家用产品电子，提供自营品牌产品以及来自200多个制造商的国际和国内品牌产品。聚好商城计划于 3/10/2021 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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631929628","repostId":"1172955355","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172955355","pubTimestamp":1644412625,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172955355?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-09 21:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读 | 投资的本质是认知的变现","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172955355","media":"金十数据","summary":"投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。一部经典谍战剧里有个特工说过一句话：「在我们这个行当里，怀疑","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。</p><p>一部经典谍战剧里有个特工说过一句话：「在我们这个行当里，怀疑，是最好的品质」。那么，在投资这个行当里，最好的品质又是什么呢？如果一定要选择一个的话，我想是理性。</p><p>投资的本质是认知的变现</p><p>前两年跟投了摩拜的VC大佬头脑风暴，聊到投资的本质的时候，最后不约而同地总结为认知变现。今晚跟在上市公司做并购的老友吃饭，又谈到这一话题，觉得还是有进一步思考的空间，因此在此从以下几个方面做一些简单总结，跟各位探讨。</p><p>一、投资即决策</p><p>投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：<b>投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。</b></p><p>一人一世界，每个人看到的世界都是不一样的，每个人对同一投资机会的认知也分不同的维度，不同维度的认知意味着各自完全不同的胜率选择。没有高确定性为前提的高赔率，是赌博。但市场普遍认知到的高确定性，在通常情况下又不可能给你高赔率。所以问题的本质其实是你是否有超越市场大多数人的认知，适时的判断出市场的错误定价，以高胜率去做高赔率的决策。</p><p>马云所说的，任何一次机会的到来，都必将经历四个阶段：<b>「看不见」、「看不起」、「看不懂」、「来不及」，也是同样的逻辑。</b></p><p>二、认知是多维度的</p><p>成功的投资需要完整的体系支撑，多维度的认知可以从不同的层面优化你投资体系的胜率和赔率指标。比如对行业和企业经营的认知：<b>行业空间、竞争格局、价值链分布、核心竞争力、增长驱动因素</b>等；交易系统的认知：<b>仓位管理、风险管理等；投资思维的认知：安全边际、复利等。</b></p><p>当然，不同人在整个体系的不同环节的认知能力是有差异的，需要选择性的修炼边际收益最高的部分，也可以通过团队合作让自己的某一部分优质认知最大程度上发挥价值。</p><p>三、投资很难赚到你不信的那份钱</p><p>知道和相信之间有很大的距离，而真正的认知是相信，甚至信仰，我们先看几个数字：</p><blockquote>a、王者荣耀刷遍朋友圈，我相信大部分人都知道，但截止到今天，腾讯股价今年的涨幅是72.3%，涨幅超越绝大多数资产的收益率，而绝大多数人也只是感慨下腾讯好厉害而已；</blockquote><blockquote>b、相信大多数人通过各种渠道学习了很多关于google、亚马逊、Facebook、苹果、腾讯、阿里巴巴等这些明星公司的核心竞争力、企业文化、商业模式、创始人风格等各方面的知识，都知道他们很牛，但如果把六支股票做一个组合去复盘，过去三年的年化的平均回报也高达百分之好几十；</blockquote><p>这些现象背后移动互联网对人们生活方式、商业模式的深刻改变，新生一代的消费习惯的升级等原因，我们大多数人都知道，但能否真正的从知道到相信，进一步转化为可以投资的认知，则少之又少。</p><p>四、如何提高从认知到投资的转化率</p><p>对于我们大多数非专业投资人来讲，对于自己所从事多年的行业认知水平肯定是超越市场上大多数的人，因此对多年在某种特定行业中的积累、独特认知和趋势判断放在投资的视角思考，完全可以把这种深度认知轻松变形。</p><p>比如，「2010年google退出中国，很容易判断最大的收益方是百度，事实上百度那一年股价确实翻倍了。比如爱玩游戏的人可以关注暴雪，了解手机行业的人可以关注高通，从事k12的人可以关注学而思、新东方。」</p><p>我一直说，在过去的6-7年时间里面，除了一线城市的房价（是否参与的背后也是认知的差异），我们还错过了两拨超过10倍的投资机会。</p><p>一次是智能手机从10%不到的渗透率提高到65%的浪潮（2010-2013年中），相关产业链的公司都是动辄几倍的涨幅，其中生产触摸屏的欧菲光短短一年上涨近10倍；</p><p>另外一波是智能手机渗透率超过65%之后带来的移动互联网浪潮，在一二级市场都雨后春笋般的出现了大量高效率的投资机会，其中变现最快、同时也跟大多数人的生活紧密相关的手游行业规模短短4年时间就增长了10倍（2012年-2016年从60亿左右增长到了600多亿），其中诞生的牛股就不言而喻， 一直到今天的王者荣耀。</p><p>相信，这两拨大的浪潮和机会绝大多数的80后、90后都是亲身经历、感同身受，因此如果你把这种身边的熟知现象，工作中对行业的积累通过深度思考转为真正的认知，再通过投资工具实现变现，那就是属于你的投资机会。</p><p>当然，创业也属于认知变现的范畴，李善友曾说，创始人的认知边界是企业真正的边界，只是其要求更高，除了需要具备超越市场的认知外，还需要战略、组织等一系列综合能力。</p><p>而投资，特别是二级市场的投资，其交易成本基本可以忽略不计，是大多数人认知变现最佳的路径。一级市场投资门槛更高，交易成本也更为复杂。</p><p>当然，真正的如何全方位的提高认知能力又是一个宏大的话题，下次有机会再探讨。</p><p>附其他几点认识：</p><p>公司研究的核心是空间、结构、深度、角度；交易策略的核心是概率、赔率和预期差；投资体系的核心是对象，时机，力度；而投资最本质的核心是价值、安全边际和复利。这几个环节是同心圆，越后面的越靠内环。</p><p>内环决定战略和原则，外环确定策略和技术；内环是道，外环是术；内环解决了What和Why，外环实现了落地的How；内环不牢靠是闷头乱撞，外环不扎实是夸夸其谈。</p><p>市场的高波动不代表高风险，反之市场的平静也不等于均衡。</p><p>公司的不确定性到底来自哪里？我想主要是：</p><blockquote>1、未来市场需求与当前预期之间的差异；</blockquote><blockquote>2、公司战略制定及执行过程中出现的问题；</blockquote><blockquote>3、对经营产生重要影响的各种不可控因素（如原材料波动，汇率波动，政策重大变化，颠覆性技术革新等）；</blockquote><blockquote>4、竞争烈度的大幅提升；</blockquote><blockquote>5、随着时间的拉长使一切事物不可控进而不可测。</blockquote><p>对于上述一到三的对策，其实是解铃还须系铃人。优秀的企业家和管理团队是提升这三项确定性的根本依靠；对于四，更重要的是生意属性上的根本特征，已非简单事在人为的范畴；对于五，<b>唯一需要的就是对生命周期的敬畏和对安全边际的重视，其应对本质已在企业自身之外。</b></p><p>投资人的主动性努力不外乎以下几点：</p><blockquote>第一，寻找中长期经营提升确定性高的企业；</blockquote><blockquote>第二，寻求中短期赔率好的价格；</blockquote><blockquote>第三，构建能平衡黑天鹅风险和研究的有效回报的投资组合；</blockquote><blockquote>第四，持续学习争取每年进步一点点；</blockquote><blockquote>第五，保持身心健康，做好以上循环并耐心等待。</blockquote><p>其它的，基本就交给国运了。</p><p>资产配置的重要性有多大？我觉得：</p><blockquote>第一，它是重要的，但它一定是在一个长期的刻度上才显示出这种优势；</blockquote><blockquote>第二，所谓的配置一定要有足够的力度才有效果，优质的配置机会但你只配了很轻的资产，也没什么意义；</blockquote><blockquote>第三，资产配置本身并不必然导致升值，它是分担风险，这两者区别很大。</blockquote><blockquote>最后，配置的重要性与单一资产的规模成正比，大部分的人问题不是配置而是规模。</blockquote><p>繁荣总是静悄悄的发生，而灾难总是在大吵大闹中降临。</p><p>市场时刻都热点繁多，新闻每天都有惊悚头条，但咱做投资的真要有点儿满清太祖那「任尔几路来我只一路去」的劲头。</p><p>与真实的价值为伍，站在概率和赔率的有利面，透彻理解并执行复利法则，其它的何必管它那么多？大多数的所谓对策都没有存在的必要，大部分刺激的新闻都与投资没关系。其实过度的关注反映的是内心的焦虑，这是种病，而且不好治。</p><p>投资成长中有两个临界点，在第一个临界点之前是艰辛的学习，用勤奋都不足以描述，简直是废寝忘食的恶补。完成这个阶段的时间因人而异，但1万小时定律是最起码的。</p><p>过了这个基础临界点后，反思和质疑开始产生价值（之前别瞎反思），实践和总结推动着越过第二个临界点，但悟性和天资可能让一些人永远翻不过去。两次质变之后，将开始享受学习积累和资产积累的双重复利。</p><p>理性让世界有序，感性让世界多彩。理性让我们区别于动物，感性让人区别于机器。理性催生了科学，感性孕育了艺术。理性可以培养和训练，感性多是自然的萌发。失去理性很难美好的生活，失去感性很难拥有真正的生命。</p><p>投资的窍门就是巧方法+笨功夫。</p><p>巧方法是指方法论体系，让你事半功倍，做到高效聪明的整合信息碎片形成完整认识；笨功夫，就是踏踏实实花时间花精力一点点去阅读、搜集和积累。</p><p>市场里80%的人被笨功夫这层就淘汰了，基本失去超额收益的入围资格。剩下的又有一半儿被巧方法挡住了，原地打转收益与付出无法匹配。所以相当赢家，既要甘于「笨」又要善于「巧」。</p><p>总有朋友对我说：看你每天晃来晃去的，投资就那么轻松啥都不用干？</p><p>我说当然不是，只不过我们工作的形态不同。一般工作的繁忙很容易识别，但投资工作其实就是三件事：学习、思考、做决定。除了学习研究是较容易看到的，更重要的「思考」和「做决定」完全可以一点儿外在表现都没有，但其实它们才是最重要的可积累无形资产。</p><p>职业投资人的社交很单纯，不需要维系多余的社会关系。在主动筛选后能沉淀下来的是三种人：</p><blockquote>第一种是有料。某一方面的学识好，能弥补自己的知识短板开拓思维，与之交流有益；</blockquote><blockquote>第二种是有趣。或风趣豁达或古灵精怪，与之交往总能给生活带来一抹亮色；</blockquote><blockquote>第三种是有品。就是能信任靠得住，价值观相近可坦率的说心里话。当然如果能多条兼顾，自然是交友的精品。</blockquote><p>投资很难赚到你不信的那份钱。往小了说，对一个公司没有充分的信心，最多只能赚到财务数据直接相关的那点儿钱，再远点长点的钱是不可能赚到的。</p><p>往大了说，对国家未来从心底悲观，那么最多赚到几个波段的小聪明的钱，要赚大钱也很难了。格局、历史感这些东西在99%的时候都很虚，但在1%的重要决策时刻往往就是强大信念的真正支撑点。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读 | 投资的本质是认知的变现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 21:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/70014><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。一部经典谍战剧里有个特工说过一句话：「在我们这个行当里，怀疑，是最好的品质」。那么，在投资这个行当里，最好的品质又是什么呢？如果一定要选择一个的话，我想是理性。投资的本质是认知的变现前两年跟投了摩拜的VC大佬头脑风暴，聊到投资的本质的时候，最后不约而同地总结为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/70014\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/70014","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172955355","content_text":"投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。一部经典谍战剧里有个特工说过一句话：「在我们这个行当里，怀疑，是最好的品质」。那么，在投资这个行当里，最好的品质又是什么呢？如果一定要选择一个的话，我想是理性。投资的本质是认知的变现前两年跟投了摩拜的VC大佬头脑风暴，聊到投资的本质的时候，最后不约而同地总结为认知变现。今晚跟在上市公司做并购的老友吃饭，又谈到这一话题，觉得还是有进一步思考的空间，因此在此从以下几个方面做一些简单总结，跟各位探讨。一、投资即决策投资即决策，而决策差异背后的根本是认知水平，认知是大脑的决策算法：投资就是对未来的不确定性下注，投资的过程就是不断地在胜率和赔率之间做平衡。一人一世界，每个人看到的世界都是不一样的，每个人对同一投资机会的认知也分不同的维度，不同维度的认知意味着各自完全不同的胜率选择。没有高确定性为前提的高赔率，是赌博。但市场普遍认知到的高确定性，在通常情况下又不可能给你高赔率。所以问题的本质其实是你是否有超越市场大多数人的认知，适时的判断出市场的错误定价，以高胜率去做高赔率的决策。马云所说的，任何一次机会的到来，都必将经历四个阶段：「看不见」、「看不起」、「看不懂」、「来不及」，也是同样的逻辑。二、认知是多维度的成功的投资需要完整的体系支撑，多维度的认知可以从不同的层面优化你投资体系的胜率和赔率指标。比如对行业和企业经营的认知：行业空间、竞争格局、价值链分布、核心竞争力、增长驱动因素等；交易系统的认知：仓位管理、风险管理等；投资思维的认知：安全边际、复利等。当然，不同人在整个体系的不同环节的认知能力是有差异的，需要选择性的修炼边际收益最高的部分，也可以通过团队合作让自己的某一部分优质认知最大程度上发挥价值。三、投资很难赚到你不信的那份钱知道和相信之间有很大的距离，而真正的认知是相信，甚至信仰，我们先看几个数字：a、王者荣耀刷遍朋友圈，我相信大部分人都知道，但截止到今天，腾讯股价今年的涨幅是72.3%，涨幅超越绝大多数资产的收益率，而绝大多数人也只是感慨下腾讯好厉害而已；b、相信大多数人通过各种渠道学习了很多关于google、亚马逊、Facebook、苹果、腾讯、阿里巴巴等这些明星公司的核心竞争力、企业文化、商业模式、创始人风格等各方面的知识，都知道他们很牛，但如果把六支股票做一个组合去复盘，过去三年的年化的平均回报也高达百分之好几十；这些现象背后移动互联网对人们生活方式、商业模式的深刻改变，新生一代的消费习惯的升级等原因，我们大多数人都知道，但能否真正的从知道到相信，进一步转化为可以投资的认知，则少之又少。四、如何提高从认知到投资的转化率对于我们大多数非专业投资人来讲，对于自己所从事多年的行业认知水平肯定是超越市场上大多数的人，因此对多年在某种特定行业中的积累、独特认知和趋势判断放在投资的视角思考，完全可以把这种深度认知轻松变形。比如，「2010年google退出中国，很容易判断最大的收益方是百度，事实上百度那一年股价确实翻倍了。比如爱玩游戏的人可以关注暴雪，了解手机行业的人可以关注高通，从事k12的人可以关注学而思、新东方。」我一直说，在过去的6-7年时间里面，除了一线城市的房价（是否参与的背后也是认知的差异），我们还错过了两拨超过10倍的投资机会。一次是智能手机从10%不到的渗透率提高到65%的浪潮（2010-2013年中），相关产业链的公司都是动辄几倍的涨幅，其中生产触摸屏的欧菲光短短一年上涨近10倍；另外一波是智能手机渗透率超过65%之后带来的移动互联网浪潮，在一二级市场都雨后春笋般的出现了大量高效率的投资机会，其中变现最快、同时也跟大多数人的生活紧密相关的手游行业规模短短4年时间就增长了10倍（2012年-2016年从60亿左右增长到了600多亿），其中诞生的牛股就不言而喻， 一直到今天的王者荣耀。相信，这两拨大的浪潮和机会绝大多数的80后、90后都是亲身经历、感同身受，因此如果你把这种身边的熟知现象，工作中对行业的积累通过深度思考转为真正的认知，再通过投资工具实现变现，那就是属于你的投资机会。当然，创业也属于认知变现的范畴，李善友曾说，创始人的认知边界是企业真正的边界，只是其要求更高，除了需要具备超越市场的认知外，还需要战略、组织等一系列综合能力。而投资，特别是二级市场的投资，其交易成本基本可以忽略不计，是大多数人认知变现最佳的路径。一级市场投资门槛更高，交易成本也更为复杂。当然，真正的如何全方位的提高认知能力又是一个宏大的话题，下次有机会再探讨。附其他几点认识：公司研究的核心是空间、结构、深度、角度；交易策略的核心是概率、赔率和预期差；投资体系的核心是对象，时机，力度；而投资最本质的核心是价值、安全边际和复利。这几个环节是同心圆，越后面的越靠内环。内环决定战略和原则，外环确定策略和技术；内环是道，外环是术；内环解决了What和Why，外环实现了落地的How；内环不牢靠是闷头乱撞，外环不扎实是夸夸其谈。市场的高波动不代表高风险，反之市场的平静也不等于均衡。公司的不确定性到底来自哪里？我想主要是：1、未来市场需求与当前预期之间的差异；2、公司战略制定及执行过程中出现的问题；3、对经营产生重要影响的各种不可控因素（如原材料波动，汇率波动，政策重大变化，颠覆性技术革新等）；4、竞争烈度的大幅提升；5、随着时间的拉长使一切事物不可控进而不可测。对于上述一到三的对策，其实是解铃还须系铃人。优秀的企业家和管理团队是提升这三项确定性的根本依靠；对于四，更重要的是生意属性上的根本特征，已非简单事在人为的范畴；对于五，唯一需要的就是对生命周期的敬畏和对安全边际的重视，其应对本质已在企业自身之外。投资人的主动性努力不外乎以下几点：第一，寻找中长期经营提升确定性高的企业；第二，寻求中短期赔率好的价格；第三，构建能平衡黑天鹅风险和研究的有效回报的投资组合；第四，持续学习争取每年进步一点点；第五，保持身心健康，做好以上循环并耐心等待。其它的，基本就交给国运了。资产配置的重要性有多大？我觉得：第一，它是重要的，但它一定是在一个长期的刻度上才显示出这种优势；第二，所谓的配置一定要有足够的力度才有效果，优质的配置机会但你只配了很轻的资产，也没什么意义；第三，资产配置本身并不必然导致升值，它是分担风险，这两者区别很大。最后，配置的重要性与单一资产的规模成正比，大部分的人问题不是配置而是规模。繁荣总是静悄悄的发生，而灾难总是在大吵大闹中降临。市场时刻都热点繁多，新闻每天都有惊悚头条，但咱做投资的真要有点儿满清太祖那「任尔几路来我只一路去」的劲头。与真实的价值为伍，站在概率和赔率的有利面，透彻理解并执行复利法则，其它的何必管它那么多？大多数的所谓对策都没有存在的必要，大部分刺激的新闻都与投资没关系。其实过度的关注反映的是内心的焦虑，这是种病，而且不好治。投资成长中有两个临界点，在第一个临界点之前是艰辛的学习，用勤奋都不足以描述，简直是废寝忘食的恶补。完成这个阶段的时间因人而异，但1万小时定律是最起码的。过了这个基础临界点后，反思和质疑开始产生价值（之前别瞎反思），实践和总结推动着越过第二个临界点，但悟性和天资可能让一些人永远翻不过去。两次质变之后，将开始享受学习积累和资产积累的双重复利。理性让世界有序，感性让世界多彩。理性让我们区别于动物，感性让人区别于机器。理性催生了科学，感性孕育了艺术。理性可以培养和训练，感性多是自然的萌发。失去理性很难美好的生活，失去感性很难拥有真正的生命。投资的窍门就是巧方法+笨功夫。巧方法是指方法论体系，让你事半功倍，做到高效聪明的整合信息碎片形成完整认识；笨功夫，就是踏踏实实花时间花精力一点点去阅读、搜集和积累。市场里80%的人被笨功夫这层就淘汰了，基本失去超额收益的入围资格。剩下的又有一半儿被巧方法挡住了，原地打转收益与付出无法匹配。所以相当赢家，既要甘于「笨」又要善于「巧」。总有朋友对我说：看你每天晃来晃去的，投资就那么轻松啥都不用干？我说当然不是，只不过我们工作的形态不同。一般工作的繁忙很容易识别，但投资工作其实就是三件事：学习、思考、做决定。除了学习研究是较容易看到的，更重要的「思考」和「做决定」完全可以一点儿外在表现都没有，但其实它们才是最重要的可积累无形资产。职业投资人的社交很单纯，不需要维系多余的社会关系。在主动筛选后能沉淀下来的是三种人：第一种是有料。某一方面的学识好，能弥补自己的知识短板开拓思维，与之交流有益；第二种是有趣。或风趣豁达或古灵精怪，与之交往总能给生活带来一抹亮色；第三种是有品。就是能信任靠得住，价值观相近可坦率的说心里话。当然如果能多条兼顾，自然是交友的精品。投资很难赚到你不信的那份钱。往小了说，对一个公司没有充分的信心，最多只能赚到财务数据直接相关的那点儿钱，再远点长点的钱是不可能赚到的。往大了说，对国家未来从心底悲观，那么最多赚到几个波段的小聪明的钱，要赚大钱也很难了。格局、历史感这些东西在99%的时候都很虚，但在1%的重要决策时刻往往就是强大信念的真正支撑点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198818730,"gmtCreate":1620950631620,"gmtModify":1620950631620,"author":{"id":"3547175021781178","authorId":"3547175021781178","name":"qqa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe4bb8e0da563534d1a3309c88bf5f2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547175021781178","authorIdStr":"3547175021781178"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yhvvgggg","listText":"yhvvgggg","text":"yhvvgggg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198818730","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190565243,"gmtCreate":1620635545982,"gmtModify":1620635545982,"author":{"id":"3547175021781178","authorId":"3547175021781178","name":"qqa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe4bb8e0da563534d1a3309c88bf5f2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547175021781178","authorIdStr":"3547175021781178"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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style><b>公司简介</b></p><p style>奥驰亚公司是世界第一大跨国烟草公司，是烟草巨头菲利浦·莫里斯(Philip Morris)的母公司、“万宝路”香烟品牌的拥有者，也是当今世界卷烟市场的NO.1。</p><p style>公司在2007年1月23日改现名，同年3月30日卡夫食品从奥驰亚分离出来。2008年3月28日菲利普·莫里斯国际也从奥驰亚独立。</p><p style>公司主营业务产品是烟制品。</p><p style><b>首席执行官</b></p><p style>Martin J. Barrington：公司董事长，首席执行官，总裁。</p><ul><li>1993年加入奥驰亚之前，在政府和私营部门从事法律工作，加入奥驰亚后担任集团公司及其运营公司的多个高级管理职位。包括担任菲利普莫里斯美国公司和菲利普莫里斯国际公司的总顾问和高级副总裁，以及菲利普莫里斯美国企业责任执行副总裁。</li><li>2012年1月26日被任命为本公司董事。</li></ul><p style><b>主营构成（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d322411d05ccdf2cfc021878213609\" /></p><p style><b>净资产收益率（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c029c5f5e4c0ff7adbef5b4ae166d300\" /></p><p style>净资产收益率是公司税后利润除以净资产得到的百分比率，该指标反映股东权益的收益水平，用以衡量公司运用自有资本的效率。公司2016财年年报净资产收益率为181.97%，往年同期为177.84%。</p><p style><b>销售毛利率（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2216c95fc150aa1f3e150332c7440f5\" /></p><p style>销售毛利率，是一个衡量盈利能力的指标，该数字越高则说明企业的盈利能力越强，控制成本的能力越强。公司2016财年的销售毛利率为45.02%，往年同期为43.70%。</p><p style><b>近五年总资产收益率（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb85f0a218fee3dac0f7211f5cf98b9\" /></p><p style>总资产收益率是指公司净利润与平均资产总额的百分比。该指标反映的是公司运用全部资产所获得利润的水平，即公司每占用1元的资产平均能获得多少元的利润。公司2016财年的总资产收益率为35.29%，往年同期为15.64%。</p><p style><b>偿债能力之资产负债率（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce0f0c770328a4559025365279625116\" /></p><p style>资产负债率是期末负债总额除以资产总额的百分比，也就是负债总额与资产总额的比例关系。资产负债率反映在总资产中有多大比例是通过借债来筹资的，也可以衡量企业在清算时保护债权人利益的程度。公司2016财年的资产负债率为72.11%，往年在90%左右。</p><p style><b>近五年现金流情况（数据引自wind）</b></p><p style><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87eea4bcb93f6145019e9e501ddd3ca\" /></p><p style>公司现金流相当优秀，筹资、投资活动连续五年净流出，且经营活动现金流可以正向覆盖。</p><p 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目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a1820120ae55d9fe2a73c2acd766014","width":"1920","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328513397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}