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美股别跌
2020-03-18
涨你妈，都跟着美国屁股后面走的，辣鸡
道指开盘再现千点跌幅，波音、特斯拉大跌，A50、恒指期货逆市上涨，什么信号？
美股别跌
2020-03-13
$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$
纪念一下，又熔断了
美股别跌
2020-03-13
$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$
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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003182302467920d26d&s=b><strong>中国证券报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>天天财经独家，速关注3月18日，美股开盘再度大跌，道指一度跌逾千点，“涨一日，跌一日”的过山车走势似乎仍未到头。除了对疫情和可能出现的经济衰退的担忧，全球最大的对冲基金桥水可能爆仓的传闻更是促使各大类资产普跌。桥水随后全面否认了传闻，但仍未能阻止欧美股市、油价、金价等各类资产普跌。美国乃至全球出现经济衰退的概率到底有多大？美国三大指数集体大跌3月18日，美股大幅低开，道指跌4.94%，纳指跌...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003182302467920d26d&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89b6889cb80bfbbc5b95f78e5fd949d","relate_stocks":{"510030":"价值ETF","510050":"上证50ETF","512550":"A50ETF基金","513600":"恒生指数ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","FXP":"二倍做空富时中国50ETF-ProShares","XPP":"二倍做多富时中国50ETF(ProShares)","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","000016.SH":"上证50","DOG":"道指反向ETF","000300.SH":"沪深300","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BA":"波音","YXI":"ProShares做空FTSE中国50ETF","02833":"恒指ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003182302467920d26d&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2020664736","content_text":"天天财经独家，速关注3月18日，美股开盘再度大跌，道指一度跌逾千点，“涨一日，跌一日”的过山车走势似乎仍未到头。除了对疫情和可能出现的经济衰退的担忧，全球最大的对冲基金桥水可能爆仓的传闻更是促使各大类资产普跌。桥水随后全面否认了传闻，但仍未能阻止欧美股市、油价、金价等各类资产普跌。美国乃至全球出现经济衰退的概率到底有多大？美国三大指数集体大跌3月18日，美股大幅低开，道指跌4.94%，纳指跌5.90%，标普500指数跌3.66%。盘面上，美股科技股下挫，石油股表现疲软。随后美股自低位开始反弹。欧洲股市方面开启比惨模式，截至发稿，欧洲斯托克50指数跌3.90%，德国DAX指数跌4.06%，英国富时100指数跌3.10%，法国CAC40指数跌4.28%。值得注意的是，波音股再度大跌，截至发稿时，跌16.47%，价盘中一度触及98美元，为近七年来首次跌破100美元。此外，新能车代表特斯拉更是大跌近10%，蔚来股价下跌近15%。周三美股盘前，蔚来公布了2019财年Q4业绩，其中营收28.5亿人民币，同比降17.1%；毛利率为-8.9%，去年同期毛利率为0.4%；蔚来预计一季度营收在12.1-12.7亿元之间，此前预估24.8亿元。且再次提到现金余额不足以为未来12个月的持续运营提供所需的营运资金和流动资金。此外，国际原油、黄金、白银等多数大宗商品价格也继续遭到资金抛售，一些贵金属商品已经失去避险属性。实际上，美股18日大跌早有“先兆”。北京时间当日午后，中国香港、韩国股市等亚洲主要股指纷纷跳水，欧洲股指期货跌幅也扩大，欧股更是低开后大幅走软。美股大跌有前兆富时中国A50逆势飘红第一，消息面上，疫情在欧美并未出现好转。世界卫生组织17日公布的最新数据显示，中国以外新冠肺炎确诊病例达到97996例。第二，除了疫情扩散，以及市场对于全球经济的担忧等原因，市场对于全球最大的对冲基金桥水出现巨额亏损、甚至爆仓的传言也是导致全球金融市场各类资产均出现“跳水”的原因。然而到了北京时间晚间，桥水方面对此作出了否认。第三，美国“过山车”式的走势继续发力，在前一日大涨之后，恐慌情绪使得短线炒作资金再度离场。值得关注的是，富时中国A50指数期货、恒指期货却在美股盘初由跌转涨，并且涨幅持续扩大，显示出投资者对于中国资产信心正在提升。利好无力经济衰退或“在路上”最新消息显示，美国正在酝酿巨额的刺激计划，按照常理本该带来利好。美国财政部长姆努钦17日在白宫表示，“坚信”美国股市将在新冠疫情期间保持开放。姆努钦当天宣布，美国财政部已批准美联储创建“特殊目的实体”(SPV)的申请，投资100亿美元购买商业票据。姆努钦表示，此举已对金融市场产生了显著的稳定作用。尽管他认为完全不需要，但美国政府有能力将相关投资额扩大到1万亿美元。姆努钦还说，美国政府考虑在未来两周内向美国民众发放支票，以缓解疫情对美国经济的影响。目前，特朗普政府正在向国会寻求约8500亿美元的经济刺激方案，以应对新冠疫情对美国经济的负面影响。姆努钦透露，该方案包括向小企业提供资金援助，以及向航空业和酒店业等受疫情影响的关键行业提供贷款担保等。然而业内专家对于美国和全球经济前景并不乐观，即使巨额刺激计划真能推出，恐怕也无法扭转美国乃至全球出现经济衰退的局面。利好无力，经济衰退可能已经“在路上”。摩根士丹利首席经济学家艾哈表示：“现在，2020年全球经济衰退已经是我们的基本预测情形。随着新冠肺炎疫情继亚洲后在欧洲和美国蔓延，经济和市场的混乱将在2020年上半年触发全球经济的同比收缩。”摩根士丹利对全球增长的基本假设是，第一季度同比萎缩0.3%，第二季度萎缩0.6%，第三季度增长1.8%，第四季度增长2.5%。双线资本首席执行官、有“新债王”之称的著名投资人冈拉克表示，美国不会因新冠肺炎陷入衰退这一说法是荒谬的。美国有90%的可能性在年底之前陷入衰退。FXTM富拓市场分析师陈忠汉指出，全球股市只能保持短暂涨势表明资者对世界各国央行和政府推出的大量支持措施的作用仍持怀疑态度。从部分主要经济体的数据来看，全球经济活动已经遭受了巨大打击，各大洲加强旅行限制和隔离措施使得经济前景更加黯淡。投资者担心从当前的经济形势看，全球经济可能陷入衰退，甚至出现更糟的情况，除非新冠肺炎疫情发展情况能够好于预期，短期内显示出稳定迹象。鉴于目前经济前景仍存在很大的不确定性，还没有理由大举投资风险较高资产。标普全球首席经济学家龚华德预测，今年全球将陷入经济衰退。2020年全球GDP增速将仅为1.0%-1.5%，且仍面临下行风险。欧洲和美国也正在沿着和亚洲此前相似的路径发展，各地强化限制人际接触或预示着需求将出现骤降，进而将导致二季度经济活动大幅放缓，直至年内较晚时候才能有所恢复。此外，欧美强化限制人际接触已导致市场出现剧烈震荡，这缘于人们的避险情绪上升，以及对经济活动、盈利和信用质量的预期严重恶化。渣打资产管理指出，美国最新的刺激方案连同美联储降低企业融资成本的进一步措施，显示出美国政府正竭尽所能，采取一切必要的货币和财政工具，防止经济衰退的来临。问题的关键，在于国会是否会批准上述方案。优质亚洲资产迎来机会业内专家建议投资者关注优质亚洲资产当前的机会。富达国际亚太区首席投资官Paras Anand指出，“若参考巴菲特的投资智慧，当恐惧情绪主导市场，通常是长线投资者搜寻机遇的好时机。”Paras Anand建议，留意亚洲投资机遇。毋容置疑，包括新兴亚洲在内的亚洲地区在未来十年将是非常具有吸引力的市场。未来亚洲无论在经济产出及投资市场占比方面，都有望出现显著增长，且增幅很有可能远高于全球平均水平。即使近日市场动荡不息，也有一些短期因素利好亚洲市场。最显然易见的是低油价，亚洲区内的工业及消费者均可受惠于相对偏低的油价，特别是在区内的石油进口国。其次，过去十年美元汇价持续走强，对不少亚洲经济体的资金流构成压力，此局面正在扭转，而美国加推货币及财政政策激刺经济或进一步加快此局面的转变速度，将有利亚洲市场。投资者在波动市况中寻找机遇，或会发现不少相对有价值的机会均来自具有持续增长特性的主题，而这些主题跨越了行业及市场，如新兴市场、中国消费、创新科技、可持续投资等。野村资产管理指出，若新冠疫情在本季度内得到控制，2020年亚洲市场仍被看好。新冠肺炎的影响可能因行业、地理位置和企业自身情况而有较大差异。比如，零部件行业，虽然价值量不大，但可能成为供应链发展瓶颈、甚至导致供应中断；而对于库存较高的企业，因供应减少而逐渐降低库存，则很可能在疫情结束后进入复苏。编辑：任晓 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