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铁韭谨慎观望

铁韭谨慎观望

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铁韭谨慎观望

2022-01-03

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$可以开始谨慎抄底了

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-12-20

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴会变成下一个中石油，立贴为证。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-12-15

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$看跌到发行价65美元

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-12-04

中国人的创意搞不了内容，你信不信？

内容！爱奇艺的“救命稻草”

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-09-23

打水飘

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-09-16

$高途(GOTU)$建议高途与新东方换股吸收合并，整合业务，取长补短。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-09-16

$新东方(EDU)$建议新东方换股吸收合并高途，整合业务，取长补短。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-07-23

$新东方(EDU)$纪念一下，今天把一年多以来赚的85%的利润归零了。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-07-22

$滴滴(DIDI)$看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-07-16

$高途(GOTU)$别墨迹，跌个30%看看

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-06-29

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$我把名字从铁韭永不做空（意思就是最多），改成了铁韭谨慎观望（意思就是做多不超过30%仓位）。

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-06-21

买买买

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-06-17

$新东方(EDU)$开启震荡墨迹之路

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-06-07

就捶你了，咋滴

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-05-13

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$有希望成为下一个中国石油

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-02-08

看来还得涨

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-01-21

只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2021-01-21

只要还有一人在质疑，那么就涨到他怀疑人生。

抱歉，原内容已删除

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-12-15

$道琼斯(.DJI)$我就是来露一下名字的

铁韭谨慎观望

2020-12-04

那么肯定还能继续涨

“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>看跌到发行价65美元","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$看跌到发行价65美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607456368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608997810,"gmtCreate":1638591451078,"gmtModify":1638591451078,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547155938177908","authorIdStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国人的创意搞不了内容，你信不信？","listText":"中国人的创意搞不了内容，你信不信？","text":"中国人的创意搞不了内容，你信不信？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608997810","repostId":"1165831342","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165831342","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638530026,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165831342?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 19:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"内容！爱奇艺的“救命稻草”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165831342","media":"博望财经","summary":"近日，市场传出消息，爱奇艺将进行史上最大规模裁员，本轮裁员罕见覆盖了爱奇艺所有部门，从影业、IP、游戏、电商部门，甚至到经纪公司，预计离职人数将超过2000人。按2020年爱奇艺财报上显示的7721名","content":"<p>近日，市场传出消息，爱奇艺将进行史上最大规模裁员，本轮裁员罕见覆盖了爱奇艺所有部门，从影业、IP、游戏、电商部门，甚至到经纪公司，预计离职人数将超过2000人。按2020年爱奇艺财报上显示的7721名雇员数计算，本次裁员幅度超过了总员工人数的四分之一。</p>\n<p>或许这与爱奇艺惨淡的业绩表现不无关系。不久前公布的三季报显示，爱奇艺Q3总营收75.89亿元，环比下降0.3%，低于预期；毛利润5.61亿元，毛利率7.4%，同比下降4.1pct，环比下降2.3pct；归母净亏损17.3亿元，同比扩大47.3%。</p>\n<p>爱奇艺的收入构成主要分为付费会员收入、广告收入、版权分销收入和其他收入，其中，付费会员收入自2019年Q3起在总收入占比超过50%后，至今为止一直是爱奇艺营收中最重要的蛋糕。</p>\n<p>01&nbsp;爱奇艺之困，困在内容成本高企</p>\n<p>付费会员业务与内容成本之间，有一道微妙关系，决定了爱奇艺的成败。我们详细分析：</p>\n<p>企业的亏损，通常和成本高企有很大关联。财报显示，爱奇艺的营业成本非常高，其Q3总营业成本70.28亿元，同比增长10%，其中内容成本53亿元，同比上升12.8%；内容成本占比同比上升4.4%，至69.8%。</p>\n<p>内容成本高，主要是因为爱奇艺在原创内容的投资加码。目前，爱奇艺已经搭建了超过70个原创内容工作室，专注多元化题材的内容布局。即便如此，但好的内容还是缺。这种缺表现在两个方面：</p>\n<p>一个是排片、审核等原因导致的内容供应不足。在爱奇艺Q3财报发布后的电话会议里，创始人兼CEO龚宇说得非常直白：“我们这个行业遇到的最大的问题在于内容供应出现严重短缺，原因是多方面的。第一个，疫情是最直接的原因，到现在为止，我们目前的电影上线量不如2019年同期的一半，而传统的电视剧比例更少，可能也就只有往年的三分之一左右，面对年轻人的新的网剧，因为审核的原因延迟上线。当然，这只是问题的一部分，内容的供给出现了比较大的问题，这是一个核心问题。”</p>\n<p>第二是“爆款”断货。今年爱奇艺独播的电视剧中，热度最高的都出现在上半年，分别是《赘婿》《爱上特种兵》和《小舍得》。今年下半年截至目前，爱奇艺上电视剧还没有出现“爆款”。此前爱奇艺的爆款剧，来自于下去年二季度推出的“迷雾剧场”，该栏目曾播出《隐秘的角落》《沉默的真相》等受到全网热议的剧集，其中《隐秘的角落》的播放量超过10亿，而通常爆款剧集的集均播放量约1亿左右。</p>\n<p>今年“迷雾剧场”共播出三部剧，《八角亭迷雾》《再见、那一天》和《致命愿望》，没有一个成为“爆款”。其中《八角亭迷雾》表现相对较好，但集均播放量仅不到4000万。更残忍的现实是，爱奇艺这类长视频网站投资一部电视剧的风险很高，如果反响不及预期，就相当于打水漂了。</p>\n<p>缺乏好的内容，用户付费意愿就不高。当内容供应无法满足人民群众日益增长的精神文化需要时，就会出现“内容成本高企与付费会员收入不对等”的情况，形成恶性循环。来看一组数据：</p>\n<p>2018年，爱奇艺的内容成本211亿元，会员收入106.23亿元；</p>\n<p>2019年，爱奇艺的内容成本222亿元，会员收入144.36亿元；</p>\n<p>2020年，爱奇艺的内容成本209亿元，会员收入164.91亿元……</p>\n<p>看到这组数据，解决问题的思路自然落在怎么在提高付费会员收入上，这也就不难理解爱奇艺此前的“蜜汁操作”——付费超前点播了。2019年，爱奇艺联合腾讯在热播剧《庆余年》中推出“超前点播”服务。开通超前点播的用户可以提前看6集，会员可以每集3元的价格购买该内容，即用户购买爱奇艺会员后，还需要再单独花钱购买剧集。</p>\n<p>通过超前点播尝到甜头的爱奇艺，将这一收费模式应用到了全平台。这在短时间内有效提升了爱奇艺的收入，但却遭到网友们尤其是会员们的“口诛笔伐”。</p>\n<p>今年10月，爱奇艺不得不宣布取消长达两年的“超前点播”，薅用户二次羊毛的“歪招”戛然而止。那如何正确破解会员收费的难题呢？</p>\n<p>02&nbsp;解决爱奇艺之困，唯有聚焦内容质量</p>\n<p>要想保持付费会员的不断增长、会员付费有意愿，&nbsp;必须不断投入内容成本，用高质量内容去留住用户。这点上，爱奇艺的对标典范——美国奈飞公司（Netflix）十分出色。</p>\n<p>奈飞盈利模式为付费会员的增长带动公司收入增长，收入增长为公司提供更多的资金购买电视剧和电影内容，同时也提供更多的客户数据和资金以拍摄内容优质的原创作品，进而吸引更多的付费会员，形成正向循环。上市至今，奈飞股价已提升465倍。</p>\n<p>也许有人会说，爱奇艺在自制剧、综艺、VR等领域都有很好的表现，对内容的重视有目共睹。但对比老大哥奈飞，还是差了一大截。</p>\n<p>提起奈飞，人们的印象往往是“奈飞出品，必属精品”。《纸牌屋》、《毒枭》、《鱿鱼游戏》……一系列世界级爆款剧，都来自于奈飞。</p>\n<p>2019 年，奈飞在北美地区平均付费用户6662 万人，订阅用户渗透率约20%；剔除试用用户，奈飞平台用户付费率接近100%（同年爱奇艺用户付费率仅为约22%）。2020年财报显示，其99%的营收来自会员付费服务。</p>\n<p>和奈飞的用户费用相比，无论从会员数量还是会员价格，爱奇艺都还有许多提升空间。2011 年奈飞首次涨价使得用户短期内流失80万，但收入大幅增长63%。</p>\n<p>参考奈飞历次提价后会员数量变动情况可以发现，如果能长期持续输出优质内容，提高用户的付费意愿，不仅订阅服务渗透率将得以提升，用户和会员忠诚度也会相对上涨。会员留存率及会员收入业务取得增长后，新增盈利将反哺于内容制作与IP 发掘中，进一步增加爆款产生的可能性，形成良性循环，最终形成“用户-营收-内容-用户”正向增长齿轮。</p>\n<p>因此，如果爱奇艺要从走出亏损泥沼，必须提升付费会员收入；而提升会员收入，唯一的底气就是有大量高品质内容。</p>\n<p>结尾</p>\n<p>在爱奇艺Q3财报发布后的电话会议上，龚宇表示：“目前爱奇艺的重点工作是减少亏损，控制成本，其实就是开源节流，把那些低效率的业务砍掉，把低效率的作品砍掉，找各种各样的货币化机会，增加收入。”如果裁员是为了把内部资源的重新高效分配，集中优势力量死磕内容质量，或许裁员对爱奇艺来说并非坏事。</p>","source":"lsy1599487363437","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>内容！爱奇艺的“救命稻草”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n内容！爱奇艺的“救命稻草”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 19:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kk4nnTPVEhuvRQDxpQBdbQ><strong>博望财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，市场传出消息，爱奇艺将进行史上最大规模裁员，本轮裁员罕见覆盖了爱奇艺所有部门，从影业、IP、游戏、电商部门，甚至到经纪公司，预计离职人数将超过2000人。按2020年爱奇艺财报上显示的7721名雇员数计算，本次裁员幅度超过了总员工人数的四分之一。\n或许这与爱奇艺惨淡的业绩表现不无关系。不久前公布的三季报显示，爱奇艺Q3总营收75.89亿元，环比下降0.3%，低于预期；毛利润5.61亿元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kk4nnTPVEhuvRQDxpQBdbQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48fbc541b07547e95dfb5b1221fb6ed","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kk4nnTPVEhuvRQDxpQBdbQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165831342","content_text":"近日，市场传出消息，爱奇艺将进行史上最大规模裁员，本轮裁员罕见覆盖了爱奇艺所有部门，从影业、IP、游戏、电商部门，甚至到经纪公司，预计离职人数将超过2000人。按2020年爱奇艺财报上显示的7721名雇员数计算，本次裁员幅度超过了总员工人数的四分之一。\n或许这与爱奇艺惨淡的业绩表现不无关系。不久前公布的三季报显示，爱奇艺Q3总营收75.89亿元，环比下降0.3%，低于预期；毛利润5.61亿元，毛利率7.4%，同比下降4.1pct，环比下降2.3pct；归母净亏损17.3亿元，同比扩大47.3%。\n爱奇艺的收入构成主要分为付费会员收入、广告收入、版权分销收入和其他收入，其中，付费会员收入自2019年Q3起在总收入占比超过50%后，至今为止一直是爱奇艺营收中最重要的蛋糕。\n01 爱奇艺之困，困在内容成本高企\n付费会员业务与内容成本之间，有一道微妙关系，决定了爱奇艺的成败。我们详细分析：\n企业的亏损，通常和成本高企有很大关联。财报显示，爱奇艺的营业成本非常高，其Q3总营业成本70.28亿元，同比增长10%，其中内容成本53亿元，同比上升12.8%；内容成本占比同比上升4.4%，至69.8%。\n内容成本高，主要是因为爱奇艺在原创内容的投资加码。目前，爱奇艺已经搭建了超过70个原创内容工作室，专注多元化题材的内容布局。即便如此，但好的内容还是缺。这种缺表现在两个方面：\n一个是排片、审核等原因导致的内容供应不足。在爱奇艺Q3财报发布后的电话会议里，创始人兼CEO龚宇说得非常直白：“我们这个行业遇到的最大的问题在于内容供应出现严重短缺，原因是多方面的。第一个，疫情是最直接的原因，到现在为止，我们目前的电影上线量不如2019年同期的一半，而传统的电视剧比例更少，可能也就只有往年的三分之一左右，面对年轻人的新的网剧，因为审核的原因延迟上线。当然，这只是问题的一部分，内容的供给出现了比较大的问题，这是一个核心问题。”\n第二是“爆款”断货。今年爱奇艺独播的电视剧中，热度最高的都出现在上半年，分别是《赘婿》《爱上特种兵》和《小舍得》。今年下半年截至目前，爱奇艺上电视剧还没有出现“爆款”。此前爱奇艺的爆款剧，来自于下去年二季度推出的“迷雾剧场”，该栏目曾播出《隐秘的角落》《沉默的真相》等受到全网热议的剧集，其中《隐秘的角落》的播放量超过10亿，而通常爆款剧集的集均播放量约1亿左右。\n今年“迷雾剧场”共播出三部剧，《八角亭迷雾》《再见、那一天》和《致命愿望》，没有一个成为“爆款”。其中《八角亭迷雾》表现相对较好，但集均播放量仅不到4000万。更残忍的现实是，爱奇艺这类长视频网站投资一部电视剧的风险很高，如果反响不及预期，就相当于打水漂了。\n缺乏好的内容，用户付费意愿就不高。当内容供应无法满足人民群众日益增长的精神文化需要时，就会出现“内容成本高企与付费会员收入不对等”的情况，形成恶性循环。来看一组数据：\n2018年，爱奇艺的内容成本211亿元，会员收入106.23亿元；\n2019年，爱奇艺的内容成本222亿元，会员收入144.36亿元；\n2020年，爱奇艺的内容成本209亿元，会员收入164.91亿元……\n看到这组数据，解决问题的思路自然落在怎么在提高付费会员收入上，这也就不难理解爱奇艺此前的“蜜汁操作”——付费超前点播了。2019年，爱奇艺联合腾讯在热播剧《庆余年》中推出“超前点播”服务。开通超前点播的用户可以提前看6集，会员可以每集3元的价格购买该内容，即用户购买爱奇艺会员后，还需要再单独花钱购买剧集。\n通过超前点播尝到甜头的爱奇艺，将这一收费模式应用到了全平台。这在短时间内有效提升了爱奇艺的收入，但却遭到网友们尤其是会员们的“口诛笔伐”。\n今年10月，爱奇艺不得不宣布取消长达两年的“超前点播”，薅用户二次羊毛的“歪招”戛然而止。那如何正确破解会员收费的难题呢？\n02 解决爱奇艺之困，唯有聚焦内容质量\n要想保持付费会员的不断增长、会员付费有意愿， 必须不断投入内容成本，用高质量内容去留住用户。这点上，爱奇艺的对标典范——美国奈飞公司（Netflix）十分出色。\n奈飞盈利模式为付费会员的增长带动公司收入增长，收入增长为公司提供更多的资金购买电视剧和电影内容，同时也提供更多的客户数据和资金以拍摄内容优质的原创作品，进而吸引更多的付费会员，形成正向循环。上市至今，奈飞股价已提升465倍。\n也许有人会说，爱奇艺在自制剧、综艺、VR等领域都有很好的表现，对内容的重视有目共睹。但对比老大哥奈飞，还是差了一大截。\n提起奈飞，人们的印象往往是“奈飞出品，必属精品”。《纸牌屋》、《毒枭》、《鱿鱼游戏》……一系列世界级爆款剧，都来自于奈飞。\n2019 年，奈飞在北美地区平均付费用户6662 万人，订阅用户渗透率约20%；剔除试用用户，奈飞平台用户付费率接近100%（同年爱奇艺用户付费率仅为约22%）。2020年财报显示，其99%的营收来自会员付费服务。\n和奈飞的用户费用相比，无论从会员数量还是会员价格，爱奇艺都还有许多提升空间。2011 年奈飞首次涨价使得用户短期内流失80万，但收入大幅增长63%。\n参考奈飞历次提价后会员数量变动情况可以发现，如果能长期持续输出优质内容，提高用户的付费意愿，不仅订阅服务渗透率将得以提升，用户和会员忠诚度也会相对上涨。会员留存率及会员收入业务取得增长后，新增盈利将反哺于内容制作与IP 发掘中，进一步增加爆款产生的可能性，形成良性循环，最终形成“用户-营收-内容-用户”正向增长齿轮。\n因此，如果爱奇艺要从走出亏损泥沼，必须提升付费会员收入；而提升会员收入，唯一的底气就是有大量高品质内容。\n结尾\n在爱奇艺Q3财报发布后的电话会议上，龚宇表示：“目前爱奇艺的重点工作是减少亏损，控制成本，其实就是开源节流，把那些低效率的业务砍掉，把低效率的作品砍掉，找各种各样的货币化机会，增加收入。”如果裁员是为了把内部资源的重新高效分配，集中优势力量死磕内容质量，或许裁员对爱奇艺来说并非坏事。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863290413,"gmtCreate":1632393841932,"gmtModify":1632393841932,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547155938177908","authorIdStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"打水飘","listText":"打水飘","text":"打水飘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863290413","repostId":"2169664448","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885439686,"gmtCreate":1631808969445,"gmtModify":1631808969445,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547155938177908","authorIdStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114232787","media":"英为财情","summary":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份","content":"<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。</p>\n<p>之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1bac5a3a461bffdb4fef7e7985b725\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"661\">标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。</p>\n<p>不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。</p>\n<p>威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”</p>\n<p>这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32381eb003dd4e67077f63347f2185e3\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"655\">美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”</p>\n<p>英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。</p>\n<p>在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。</p>\n<p>低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。</p>\n<p>反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。</p>\n<p>经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。</p>\n<p>到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。</p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114232787","content_text":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。\n不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。\n威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”\n这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。\n美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”\n英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。\n在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。\n低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。\n反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。\n经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。\n到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":925874553,"gmtCreate":1587987586972,"gmtModify":1704365958054,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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不想说什么，只是来露一个我的名字","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300405019","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172555335,"gmtCreate":1626967836327,"gmtModify":1626967836327,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>看到有这么多打算长期持有的，那么应该肯定还会跌","listText":"<a 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21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"非农数据已失真，美国经济面临一个“L”型的未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184089661","media":"金十数据","summary":"“-2050万人、14.7%”， 一切正如市场预期的那般惨烈……","content":"<p>今晚，4月非农就业报告如约而至。</p><blockquote><p><span><b>“-2050万人、14.7%”</b></span></p></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d31f71a91df854b234bba69cff7d470\"></p><p>一切正如市场预期的那般惨烈。普通人可能对这个数据没什么直观的感受，那么对比一下：</p><blockquote><p>美国纽约州在2019年的人口约2000万人左右。<br></p><p>自2009年11月以来，美国非农新增就业人口也不过2244万人。</p></blockquote><p>也就是说，在刚刚过去的4月，美国几乎有一整个州的人都失业了，也可以说十年功夫在一个月内尽毁了。更可怕的是，有人认为非农数据并不真实，完整，现实中的失业状况或比报告展示的更加严重......</p><p><b><span>01非农数据有多失真？</span></b></p><p>“现在公布的数据是否只是冰山一角？”这种说法并不是无凭无据的，也不是骇人听闻的，有些蛛丝马迹甚至就藏在报告里面。</p><p><b><span>首先，对于非农报告的第一个质疑就是失业率是14.7%还是22.8%？</span></b></p><p>我们平时关注的非农失业率实际上是指U-3失业率，其中包括了各类临时工的就业，但又把没有主动找工作的那群社会闲置人员摒除在外。没错！这简直就是神不知鬼不觉地美化了失业率。</p><p>在以往正常的时候，这两个指标的差别还不太大，然而，在疫情的影响下，越来越多人难以找到正常工作，更多的人选择暂时放弃应聘（报告显示就业参与率已经下降至60.2%，这也将支撑U-3失业率），如今，U-6失业率显然更能说明问题的严重性。</p><p>在本次的非农报告中，<b>U-3失业率从3月份的4.4%上升到4月份创纪录的14.7%，U-6失业率录得22.8%，逼近1933年大萧条时期创下的24.9%的峰值。</b></p><p><b><span>除了U-6失业率，其他同类指标早已率先报警。</span></b></p><p>关于这点，相信也不用过多赘述，小伙伴们肯定早就对此有多耳闻。</p><blockquote><p>每周初请数据显示，过去七周，美国失业人数飙升至3300万人。<br>美国4月挑战者企业裁员人数录得67.1129万人，较2002年创下的前纪录高位高出170%。<br>美国4月ADP就业人数录得-2023.6万人，远超前纪录低位的-70.8万人。</p></blockquote><p><b>不仅如此，薪资水平和增速，平均工时的下降，55岁及以上工人及妇女的失业歧视问题都触目惊心。</b></p><p><b><span>02“慌张”的美国人</span></b></p><p><b><span>那么，面对如此严峻的就业形势，美国人慌不慌？答案是真慌！</span></b></p><p>上到乐天派领袖特朗普和狂颁布新政策的美联储，下到抢纸抢洗衣粉，到现在抢救济金的美国民众，都用实际行动证明了这场衰退危机的可怕程度。<b><span>我们先从上层看起，看看在这场疫情对抗中站首位的美国政府。</span></b></p><p>从3月以来，美国方面已经推出了4轮经济救助措施，第五轮救济方案已经开始酝酿。无论是推出新方案的速度，规模，都是前所未见的程度，这个都是有目共睹的。</p><p>而我们今天要着重要说的是，美国政府在颁布每一轮救济方案后，又是如何后知后觉地进行“亡羊补牢”的。</p><p><b>简单来说，其实在这场危机中，受到冲击最大的就是那些小公司和处于底层的普通民众</b>，而美国颁布的前几轮法案似乎都未能把钱送到需要的人手中。相反地，大公司却中饱私囊，有工作的人为了领取救济金甚至主动失业。</p><p>这也是为什么，在后面的救济方案中，我们可以看到分配力度向小企业倾斜，特朗普甚至直接炮轰某些大机构和企业对救济金的“贪婪”。我们可以看看对比：</p><blockquote><p>在3月颁布的2.2万亿美元的CARES法案中，包括近3500亿美元的小企业救济贷款，占比约16%。<br>而在4月25日颁布的第四轮4840亿救助法案中，3100亿美元分配给了小企业，占比64%。</p></blockquote><p>除此之外，特朗普虽然没有像其前任奥巴马一般推出全民医保，但是也建立了“流行病失业援助”（PUA）项目，专门为那些无法享受失业保险的个人提供福利，如自营职业者、独立承包商和零工经济工作者。</p><p>很明显，这次冲击对于美国政府来说，也是一个挑战，他们嘴里说着不慌，却也无法立即推出行之有效的策略，只能在每一次不断进行事后调整和补充。</p><p><b><span>顺着这条藤往下看，我们就会发现一个疯狂接盘的美联储，下面这组数据就足以说明一切了。</span></b></p><blockquote><p>截止上周末，美联储的资产负债表规模已创下了约6.66万亿美元的纪录新高。</p></blockquote><p>虽然美联储已经开始“急刹车”，近一个多月以来一直持续减少QE规模，但显然放水速度仍太快，且木已成舟。</p><p><b>既然政府和美联储都已经如此“慌不迭地”，普通民众就更不用说了。</b></p><blockquote><p>失业只是第一个难题，申领救济金就是第二步，接下来还需面对等待失业金发放的漫长过程，重新就业却“投靠无门”的窘境......</p></blockquote><p><b><span>03透过非农，看美国经济未来</span></b></p><p>这样看来，这次的突发性卫生事件仿佛是场专门为美国设计的试验，从经济结构，就业市场，再到政府和央行应对能力，社会保障体系等等诸多方面的缺陷都被一一点破。</p><p>首先，很明显看到的是，<b><span>相对其他国家，美国就业市场的颓势来得更猛更快。该现象的根源是来自美国的经济结构。</span></b></p><blockquote><p>由于逾80%的GDP来自服务业的贡献，美国就业市场一直外强中虚，外包制造业的弊端早已开始酝酿。</p></blockquote><p>也正是因此，考虑到服务业对社会消费活力的依赖程度，为了防止更多产能遭到不可逆的破坏，以特朗普为首的政治精英不得不呼吁火速重启经济。在重启之后，有分析表示，美国将继续鼓励制造企业回流，而页岩油这种扛把子行业自然也是“大而不倒”的。</p><p>其次，<b><span>经过一连串的救济活动后，美国政府债务问题无法再忽视，海量债务找谁接盘？</span></b>（美联储显然已经不愿再继续了接盘了）</p><p>对此，有分析指出了，三个解决方案。</p><blockquote><p>一是用之于市场，自然会从市场手中拿回来，危机过后的紧缩或无法避免。<br>二是其他国家，有人认为如此大规模的债务，恐怕只能从别的国家中索取，随着利益分割再被质疑，各种国与国之间的摩擦恐升温。<br>三是继续维护美元的权威低位。</p></blockquote><p>对了，据华尔街日报，特朗普政府可能禁止新的临时和工作签证，预计本月出台政策。难道为了保住美国人的饭碗，特朗普已经开始打起外国人就业职位的主意了吗？</p><p><b><span>透过此次的非农，看美国经济未来。</span></b></p><p>有人认为，在这次危机过后，美国或需要另一个十年来重整旗鼓，也有人说这次的衰退复苏轨迹很可能就是“L型”的。</p><p>美国前国务卿基辛格的说法显然更具代表性，基辛格表示：</p><blockquote><p><b><span>“即便疫情过去了，世界也不会是之前的样子了。 ”</span></b></p></blockquote>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>非农数据已失真，美国经济面临一个“L”型的未来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农数据已失真，美国经济面临一个“L”型的未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-08 21:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59770><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今晚，4月非农就业报告如约而至。“-2050万人、14.7%”一切正如市场预期的那般惨烈。普通人可能对这个数据没什么直观的感受，那么对比一下：美国纽约州在2019年的人口约2000万人左右。自2009年11月以来，美国非农新增就业人口也不过2244万人。也就是说，在刚刚过去的4月，美国几乎有一整个州的人都失业了，也可以说十年功夫在一个月内尽毁了。更可怕的是，有人认为非农数据并不真实，完整，现实中的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59770\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e44b70b343e617916e4a645ff4d3c6c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59770","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184089661","content_text":"今晚，4月非农就业报告如约而至。“-2050万人、14.7%”一切正如市场预期的那般惨烈。普通人可能对这个数据没什么直观的感受，那么对比一下：美国纽约州在2019年的人口约2000万人左右。自2009年11月以来，美国非农新增就业人口也不过2244万人。也就是说，在刚刚过去的4月，美国几乎有一整个州的人都失业了，也可以说十年功夫在一个月内尽毁了。更可怕的是，有人认为非农数据并不真实，完整，现实中的失业状况或比报告展示的更加严重......01非农数据有多失真？“现在公布的数据是否只是冰山一角？”这种说法并不是无凭无据的，也不是骇人听闻的，有些蛛丝马迹甚至就藏在报告里面。首先，对于非农报告的第一个质疑就是失业率是14.7%还是22.8%？我们平时关注的非农失业率实际上是指U-3失业率，其中包括了各类临时工的就业，但又把没有主动找工作的那群社会闲置人员摒除在外。没错！这简直就是神不知鬼不觉地美化了失业率。在以往正常的时候，这两个指标的差别还不太大，然而，在疫情的影响下，越来越多人难以找到正常工作，更多的人选择暂时放弃应聘（报告显示就业参与率已经下降至60.2%，这也将支撑U-3失业率），如今，U-6失业率显然更能说明问题的严重性。在本次的非农报告中，U-3失业率从3月份的4.4%上升到4月份创纪录的14.7%，U-6失业率录得22.8%，逼近1933年大萧条时期创下的24.9%的峰值。除了U-6失业率，其他同类指标早已率先报警。关于这点，相信也不用过多赘述，小伙伴们肯定早就对此有多耳闻。每周初请数据显示，过去七周，美国失业人数飙升至3300万人。美国4月挑战者企业裁员人数录得67.1129万人，较2002年创下的前纪录高位高出170%。美国4月ADP就业人数录得-2023.6万人，远超前纪录低位的-70.8万人。不仅如此，薪资水平和增速，平均工时的下降，55岁及以上工人及妇女的失业歧视问题都触目惊心。02“慌张”的美国人那么，面对如此严峻的就业形势，美国人慌不慌？答案是真慌！上到乐天派领袖特朗普和狂颁布新政策的美联储，下到抢纸抢洗衣粉，到现在抢救济金的美国民众，都用实际行动证明了这场衰退危机的可怕程度。我们先从上层看起，看看在这场疫情对抗中站首位的美国政府。从3月以来，美国方面已经推出了4轮经济救助措施，第五轮救济方案已经开始酝酿。无论是推出新方案的速度，规模，都是前所未见的程度，这个都是有目共睹的。而我们今天要着重要说的是，美国政府在颁布每一轮救济方案后，又是如何后知后觉地进行“亡羊补牢”的。简单来说，其实在这场危机中，受到冲击最大的就是那些小公司和处于底层的普通民众，而美国颁布的前几轮法案似乎都未能把钱送到需要的人手中。相反地，大公司却中饱私囊，有工作的人为了领取救济金甚至主动失业。这也是为什么，在后面的救济方案中，我们可以看到分配力度向小企业倾斜，特朗普甚至直接炮轰某些大机构和企业对救济金的“贪婪”。我们可以看看对比：在3月颁布的2.2万亿美元的CARES法案中，包括近3500亿美元的小企业救济贷款，占比约16%。而在4月25日颁布的第四轮4840亿救助法案中，3100亿美元分配给了小企业，占比64%。除此之外，特朗普虽然没有像其前任奥巴马一般推出全民医保，但是也建立了“流行病失业援助”（PUA）项目，专门为那些无法享受失业保险的个人提供福利，如自营职业者、独立承包商和零工经济工作者。很明显，这次冲击对于美国政府来说，也是一个挑战，他们嘴里说着不慌，却也无法立即推出行之有效的策略，只能在每一次不断进行事后调整和补充。顺着这条藤往下看，我们就会发现一个疯狂接盘的美联储，下面这组数据就足以说明一切了。截止上周末，美联储的资产负债表规模已创下了约6.66万亿美元的纪录新高。虽然美联储已经开始“急刹车”，近一个多月以来一直持续减少QE规模，但显然放水速度仍太快，且木已成舟。既然政府和美联储都已经如此“慌不迭地”，普通民众就更不用说了。失业只是第一个难题，申领救济金就是第二步，接下来还需面对等待失业金发放的漫长过程，重新就业却“投靠无门”的窘境......03透过非农，看美国经济未来这样看来，这次的突发性卫生事件仿佛是场专门为美国设计的试验，从经济结构，就业市场，再到政府和央行应对能力，社会保障体系等等诸多方面的缺陷都被一一点破。首先，很明显看到的是，相对其他国家，美国就业市场的颓势来得更猛更快。该现象的根源是来自美国的经济结构。由于逾80%的GDP来自服务业的贡献，美国就业市场一直外强中虚，外包制造业的弊端早已开始酝酿。也正是因此，考虑到服务业对社会消费活力的依赖程度，为了防止更多产能遭到不可逆的破坏，以特朗普为首的政治精英不得不呼吁火速重启经济。在重启之后，有分析表示，美国将继续鼓励制造企业回流，而页岩油这种扛把子行业自然也是“大而不倒”的。其次，经过一连串的救济活动后，美国政府债务问题无法再忽视，海量债务找谁接盘？（美联储显然已经不愿再继续了接盘了）对此，有分析指出了，三个解决方案。一是用之于市场，自然会从市场手中拿回来，危机过后的紧缩或无法避免。二是其他国家，有人认为如此大规模的债务，恐怕只能从别的国家中索取，随着利益分割再被质疑，各种国与国之间的摩擦恐升温。三是继续维护美元的权威低位。对了，据华尔街日报，特朗普政府可能禁止新的临时和工作签证，预计本月出台政策。难道为了保住美国人的饭碗，特朗普已经开始打起外国人就业职位的主意了吗？透过此次的非农，看美国经济未来。有人认为，在这次危机过后，美国或需要另一个十年来重整旗鼓，也有人说这次的衰退复苏轨迹很可能就是“L型”的。美国前国务卿基辛格的说法显然更具代表性，基辛格表示：“即便疫情过去了，世界也不会是之前的样子了。 ”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925847032,"gmtCreate":1587984483526,"gmtModify":1704365943625,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>[捂脸]&nbsp;后天价格上15元以上，没上我直播吃翔","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>[捂脸]&nbsp;后天价格上15元以上，没上我直播吃翔","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$[捂脸] 后天价格上15元以上，没上我直播吃翔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925847032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922432291,"gmtCreate":1587637128113,"gmtModify":1704365029057,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>这只etf是满仓的吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>这只etf是满仓的吗？","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$这只etf是满仓的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922432291","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396899532,"gmtCreate":1607082795826,"gmtModify":1703846311814,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那么肯定还能继续涨","listText":"那么肯定还能继续涨","text":"那么肯定还能继续涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396899532","repostId":"1114232787","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114232787","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1607080236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114232787?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-04 19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114232787","media":"英为财情","summary":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份","content":"<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。</p>\n<p>之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1bac5a3a461bffdb4fef7e7985b725\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"661\">标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。</p>\n<p>不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。</p>\n<p>威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”</p>\n<p>这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32381eb003dd4e67077f63347f2185e3\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"655\">美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”</p>\n<p>英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。</p>\n<p>在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。</p>\n<p>低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。</p>\n<p>反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。</p>\n<p>经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。</p>\n<p>到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。</p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114232787","content_text":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。\n不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。\n威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”\n这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。\n美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”\n英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。\n在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。\n低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。\n反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。\n经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。\n到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952247714,"gmtCreate":1591979818938,"gmtModify":1704197976503,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>大家有没有遇到这样的bug：以50元挂了买单，后来点撤销一直显示待撤销，这时再以低于50元的价格挂卖单，系统提示与待撤销的买单存在冲突，卖单无效。也就是我卖不出去了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>大家有没有遇到这样的bug：以50元挂了买单，后来点撤销一直显示待撤销，这时再以低于50元的价格挂卖单，系统提示与待撤销的买单存在冲突，卖单无效。也就是我卖不出去了","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$大家有没有遇到这样的bug：以50元挂了买单，后来点撤销一直显示待撤销，这时再以低于50元的价格挂卖单，系统提示与待撤销的买单存在冲突，卖单无效。也就是我卖不出去了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952247714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958533465,"gmtCreate":1591300255457,"gmtModify":1704195273444,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$&nbsp;</a>尾盘了请开始你的拉升表演","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$&nbsp;</a>尾盘了请开始你的拉升表演","text":"$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 尾盘了请开始你的拉升表演","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958533465","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692760096,"gmtCreate":1641220994928,"gmtModify":1641220994928,"author":{"id":"3547155938177908","authorId":"3547155938177908","name":"铁韭谨慎观望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b723ed7c352d5313b95a986c07e60b","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547155938177908","idStr":"3547155938177908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>可以开始谨慎抄底了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>可以开始谨慎抄底了","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$可以开始谨慎抄底了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692760096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}