赵韵文的个人主页 - 老虎社区

赵韵文

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2020-04-21

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-04-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小十一eleven:USO实际损耗到底是多少

2020-04-07

美股的牛市是常态，熊市是短暂的…中国的熊市是常态牛市是短暂的…这反应的是中美二级市场中一个很普遍很基础的市场差异…

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-04-07

哈哈哈

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-04-06

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$瑞幸啊瑞幸，我这不争气的家伙，罔我不远万里抄底来送钱，看这交情破产前能请我喝杯咖啡么…

2020-03-17

见证历史的时刻…四次熔断，我见识了三次…

2020-03-12

股市是一个金融投资的地方，不是游戏娱乐的地方，港美股你好，我来了！！！

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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a> 作为一个金融小白，最近想抄底石油，想长期拿住6-12个月，直到油价回暖。研究了一圈可以抄底的标的，中意的标的有两个，一个是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>，一个是直接买石油巨头的股票 ，如<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">$道达尔(TOT)$</a>和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">$埃克森美孚(XOM)$</a>，可是考虑到美股大盘的风险，我认为USO可以更好的跟踪油价。但我对它真实的损耗，一直弄不明白，看各路大神各种分析，但到最后都没能给出个准确的答案 - 长期持有USO的损耗到底是多少？所以我用了最笨的方法来计算它的实际损耗，如果有我没有考虑到的点，请不要犹豫的指出，大家一起讨论。 计算方法：我拉出了USO 和WTI从2008年年初到今天每天的价格，加以比较，算出USO/WTI比（因为数据太多，我从表中拉出每半年的数据方便查看）。从下图可以看到，08年年初USO/WTI比是58%，但到16年年中降到22%。这代表了什么？代表08年的时候如果油价是100元，USO价格是58元，但是到了2016年，如果油价是100元，USO的价格只有22元。按照9年平均来算，每年的损耗是10.2%。但是另一方面，从下图也可以看出，从2016年年中到今日，将近4年的时间里，USO/WTI比都稳定在20%左右区间，没有加深损耗，我觉得原因之一是因为这段时间油价的波动率与之前年份相比较小 - 换句话就是说，油价越稳","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a> 作为一个金融小白，最近想抄底石油，想长期拿住6-12个月，直到油价回暖。研究了一圈可以抄底的标的，中意的标的有两个，一个是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>，一个是直接买石油巨头的股票 ，如<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">$道达尔(TOT)$</a>和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">$埃克森美孚(XOM)$</a>，可是考虑到美股大盘的风险，我认为USO可以更好的跟踪油价。但我对它真实的损耗，一直弄不明白，看各路大神各种分析，但到最后都没能给出个准确的答案 - 长期持有USO的损耗到底是多少？所以我用了最笨的方法来计算它的实际损耗，如果有我没有考虑到的点，请不要犹豫的指出，大家一起讨论。 计算方法：我拉出了USO 和WTI从2008年年初到今天每天的价格，加以比较，算出USO/WTI比（因为数据太多，我从表中拉出每半年的数据方便查看）。从下图可以看到，08年年初USO/WTI比是58%，但到16年年中降到22%。这代表了什么？代表08年的时候如果油价是100元，USO价格是58元，但是到了2016年，如果油价是100元，USO的价格只有22元。按照9年平均来算，每年的损耗是10.2%。但是另一方面，从下图也可以看出，从2016年年中到今日，将近4年的时间里，USO/WTI比都稳定在20%左右区间，没有加深损耗，我觉得原因之一是因为这段时间油价的波动率与之前年份相比较小 - 换句话就是说，油价越稳","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$ 作为一个金融小白，最近想抄底石油，想长期拿住6-12个月，直到油价回暖。研究了一圈可以抄底的标的，中意的标的有两个，一个是$美国原油ETF(USO)$，一个是直接买石油巨头的股票 ，如$道达尔(TOT)$和$埃克森美孚(XOM)$，可是考虑到美股大盘的风险，我认为USO可以更好的跟踪油价。但我对它真实的损耗，一直弄不明白，看各路大神各种分析，但到最后都没能给出个准确的答案 - 长期持有USO的损耗到底是多少？所以我用了最笨的方法来计算它的实际损耗，如果有我没有考虑到的点，请不要犹豫的指出，大家一起讨论。 计算方法：我拉出了USO 和WTI从2008年年初到今天每天的价格，加以比较，算出USO/WTI比（因为数据太多，我从表中拉出每半年的数据方便查看）。从下图可以看到，08年年初USO/WTI比是58%，但到16年年中降到22%。这代表了什么？代表08年的时候如果油价是100元，USO价格是58元，但是到了2016年，如果油价是100元，USO的价格只有22元。按照9年平均来算，每年的损耗是10.2%。但是另一方面，从下图也可以看出，从2016年年中到今日，将近4年的时间里，USO/WTI比都稳定在20%左右区间，没有加深损耗，我觉得原因之一是因为这段时间油价的波动率与之前年份相比较小 - 换句话就是说，油价越稳","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b44d569e88f42c90ee68f6319aa76003"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926186796","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921620089,"gmtCreate":1586267782241,"gmtModify":1704360614754,"author":{"id":"3546977414171175","authorId":"3546977414171175","name":"赵韵文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d94ccf50fb2808b8b33be9055fb0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股的牛市是常态，熊市是短暂的…中国的熊市是常态牛市是短暂的…这反应的是中美二级市场中一个很普遍很基础的市场差异…","listText":"美股的牛市是常态，熊市是短暂的…中国的熊市是常态牛市是短暂的…这反应的是中美二级市场中一个很普遍很基础的市场差异…","text":"美股的牛市是常态，熊市是短暂的…中国的熊市是常态牛市是短暂的…这反应的是中美二级市场中一个很普遍很基础的市场差异…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921620089","repostId":"1147487657","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921870067,"gmtCreate":1586251196859,"gmtModify":1704360518936,"author":{"id":"3546977414171175","authorId":"3546977414171175","name":"赵韵文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d94ccf50fb2808b8b33be9055fb0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈","listText":"哈哈哈","text":"哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921870067","repostId":"921389724","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921102944,"gmtCreate":1586182053588,"gmtModify":1704360275035,"author":{"id":"3546977414171175","authorId":"3546977414171175","name":"赵韵文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d94ccf50fb2808b8b33be9055fb0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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00:30","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"WTI 5月原油期货跌破8美元跌超56%，触及1986年以来新低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138006189","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"WTI 5月原油期货跌破8美元/桶，日内跌超56%。美国WTI 6月合约较5月合约溢价近15美元，续刷历史纪录周一，WTI原油期货5月合约与6月合约之间的价差超过10美元，为历史最高水平，6月合约的价","content":"<p>WTI 5月原油期货跌破8美元/桶，日内跌超56%。美国WTI 6月合约较5月合约溢价近15美元，续刷历史纪录<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1139ac6807318664193175ab5e66495e\"><span>周一，WTI原油期货5月合约与6月合约之间的价差超过10美元，为历史最高水平，6月合约的价格甚至达到了5月合约的2倍，背后4大原因不可忽视。</span></p><p><span><b>储油空间</b></span></p><p><span>炼油厂对汽油的需求很少，美国的储油罐已接近极限。由于短期需求严重不足，存储空间告急，导致美国WTI原油的近月价格大幅低于远期合约价格。</span></p><p><span>KKM Financial的杰夫·基尔伯格（Jeff Kilburg）表示，5月和6月合约之间的价差创下了历史上最大的价差。</span></p><p><span>Rystad Energy的石油市场负责人Bjornar Tonhaugen称：“全球供需失衡的真正问题已经开始真正体现在价格上。随着生产相对轻松地进行，存储罐每天都变得更满。”</span></p><p><span>由于需求几乎陷于瘫痪，世界各地的石油罐和燃料罐都快要溢出了，储存费也越来越贵。这是全球供过于求的鲜明证据，也加剧了石油价差。这也导致部分交易商大举租用浮动或陆上存储，以期在价格反弹时出售获利。</span></p><p><span><b>换月因素</b></span></p><p><span>澳新银行的丹尼尔·海恩斯（Daniel Hynes）表示，价差创历史新高的原因之一是周二5月合约即将到期。“市场上会有一些交易者并不需要实物石油，因此他们将结转到下一个期货合约。这意味着卖出5月合约，买入6月合约。”</span></p><p><span>德国商业银行分析师卡斯滕·弗里奇（Carsten Fritsch）说，许多投资者似乎被低油价所误导，而没有考虑到石油期货合约通常按月到期的事实。</span></p><p><span><b>流动性不足</b></span></p><p><span>5月合约跌幅剧烈也部分源自于交易量不足导致的流动性匮乏。当前5月合约将于4月21日（周二）到期，目前市场交易量主要活跃于6月合约，5月合约成交量不足6月合约的1/5。</span></p><p><span><b>油价预期</b></span></p><p><span>交易员认为未来油价会比现在贵。五月份交割的WTI原油期货下跌近40%，约为11美元/桶。6月WTI合约下跌约10%，约为22美元/桶。7月合约下跌约5%，约28美元/桶。最近交付的合约，即周二到期的5月合约受到了最严重的打击，因为它最快交付。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>WTI 5月原油期货跌破8美元跌超56%，触及1986年以来新低</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWTI 5月原油期货跌破8美元跌超56%，触及1986年以来新低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-21 00:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WTI 5月原油期货跌破8美元/桶，日内跌超56%。美国WTI 6月合约较5月合约溢价近15美元，续刷历史纪录<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1139ac6807318664193175ab5e66495e\"><span>周一，WTI原油期货5月合约与6月合约之间的价差超过10美元，为历史最高水平，6月合约的价格甚至达到了5月合约的2倍，背后4大原因不可忽视。</span></p><p><span><b>储油空间</b></span></p><p><span>炼油厂对汽油的需求很少，美国的储油罐已接近极限。由于短期需求严重不足，存储空间告急，导致美国WTI原油的近月价格大幅低于远期合约价格。</span></p><p><span>KKM Financial的杰夫·基尔伯格（Jeff Kilburg）表示，5月和6月合约之间的价差创下了历史上最大的价差。</span></p><p><span>Rystad Energy的石油市场负责人Bjornar Tonhaugen称：“全球供需失衡的真正问题已经开始真正体现在价格上。随着生产相对轻松地进行，存储罐每天都变得更满。”</span></p><p><span>由于需求几乎陷于瘫痪，世界各地的石油罐和燃料罐都快要溢出了，储存费也越来越贵。这是全球供过于求的鲜明证据，也加剧了石油价差。这也导致部分交易商大举租用浮动或陆上存储，以期在价格反弹时出售获利。</span></p><p><span><b>换月因素</b></span></p><p><span>澳新银行的丹尼尔·海恩斯（Daniel Hynes）表示，价差创历史新高的原因之一是周二5月合约即将到期。“市场上会有一些交易者并不需要实物石油，因此他们将结转到下一个期货合约。这意味着卖出5月合约，买入6月合约。”</span></p><p><span>德国商业银行分析师卡斯滕·弗里奇（Carsten Fritsch）说，许多投资者似乎被低油价所误导，而没有考虑到石油期货合约通常按月到期的事实。</span></p><p><span><b>流动性不足</b></span></p><p><span>5月合约跌幅剧烈也部分源自于交易量不足导致的流动性匮乏。当前5月合约将于4月21日（周二）到期，目前市场交易量主要活跃于6月合约，5月合约成交量不足6月合约的1/5。</span></p><p><span><b>油价预期</b></span></p><p><span>交易员认为未来油价会比现在贵。五月份交割的WTI原油期货下跌近40%，约为11美元/桶。6月WTI合约下跌约10%，约为22美元/桶。7月合约下跌约5%，约28美元/桶。最近交付的合约，即周二到期的5月合约受到了最严重的打击，因为它最快交付。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138006189","content_text":"WTI 5月原油期货跌破8美元/桶，日内跌超56%。美国WTI 6月合约较5月合约溢价近15美元，续刷历史纪录周一，WTI原油期货5月合约与6月合约之间的价差超过10美元，为历史最高水平，6月合约的价格甚至达到了5月合约的2倍，背后4大原因不可忽视。储油空间炼油厂对汽油的需求很少，美国的储油罐已接近极限。由于短期需求严重不足，存储空间告急，导致美国WTI原油的近月价格大幅低于远期合约价格。KKM Financial的杰夫·基尔伯格（Jeff Kilburg）表示，5月和6月合约之间的价差创下了历史上最大的价差。Rystad Energy的石油市场负责人Bjornar Tonhaugen称：“全球供需失衡的真正问题已经开始真正体现在价格上。随着生产相对轻松地进行，存储罐每天都变得更满。”由于需求几乎陷于瘫痪，世界各地的石油罐和燃料罐都快要溢出了，储存费也越来越贵。这是全球供过于求的鲜明证据，也加剧了石油价差。这也导致部分交易商大举租用浮动或陆上存储，以期在价格反弹时出售获利。换月因素澳新银行的丹尼尔·海恩斯（Daniel Hynes）表示，价差创历史新高的原因之一是周二5月合约即将到期。“市场上会有一些交易者并不需要实物石油，因此他们将结转到下一个期货合约。这意味着卖出5月合约，买入6月合约。”德国商业银行分析师卡斯滕·弗里奇（Carsten Fritsch）说，许多投资者似乎被低油价所误导，而没有考虑到石油期货合约通常按月到期的事实。流动性不足5月合约跌幅剧烈也部分源自于交易量不足导致的流动性匮乏。当前5月合约将于4月21日（周二）到期，目前市场交易量主要活跃于6月合约，5月合约成交量不足6月合约的1/5。油价预期交易员认为未来油价会比现在贵。五月份交割的WTI原油期货下跌近40%，约为11美元/桶。6月WTI合约下跌约10%，约为22美元/桶。7月合约下跌约5%，约28美元/桶。最近交付的合约，即周二到期的5月合约受到了最严重的打击，因为它最快交付。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":926551014,"gmtCreate":1587174563838,"gmtModify":1704363555167,"author":{"id":"3546977414171175","authorId":"3546977414171175","name":"赵韵文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d94ccf50fb2808b8b33be9055fb0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926551014","repostId":"926186796","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":926186796,"gmtCreate":1587034162115,"gmtModify":1704362974064,"author":{"id":"3545810862852481","authorId":"3545810862852481","name":"小十一eleven","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf865cc60b80061dc8f74f2cd4091cac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"USO实际损耗到底是多少","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a> 作为一个金融小白，最近想抄底石油，想长期拿住6-12个月，直到油价回暖。研究了一圈可以抄底的标的，中意的标的有两个，一个是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>，一个是直接买石油巨头的股票 ，如<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">$道达尔(TOT)$</a>和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">$埃克森美孚(XOM)$</a>，可是考虑到美股大盘的风险，我认为USO可以更好的跟踪油价。但我对它真实的损耗，一直弄不明白，看各路大神各种分析，但到最后都没能给出个准确的答案 - 长期持有USO的损耗到底是多少？所以我用了最笨的方法来计算它的实际损耗，如果有我没有考虑到的点，请不要犹豫的指出，大家一起讨论。 计算方法：我拉出了USO 和WTI从2008年年初到今天每天的价格，加以比较，算出USO/WTI比（因为数据太多，我从表中拉出每半年的数据方便查看）。从下图可以看到，08年年初USO/WTI比是58%，但到16年年中降到22%。这代表了什么？代表08年的时候如果油价是100元，USO价格是58元，但是到了2016年，如果油价是100元，USO的价格只有22元。按照9年平均来算，每年的损耗是10.2%。但是另一方面，从下图也可以看出，从2016年年中到今日，将近4年的时间里，USO/WTI比都稳定在20%左右区间，没有加深损耗，我觉得原因之一是因为这段时间油价的波动率与之前年份相比较小 - 换句话就是说，油价越稳","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a> 作为一个金融小白，最近想抄底石油，想长期拿住6-12个月，直到油价回暖。研究了一圈可以抄底的标的，中意的标的有两个，一个是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>，一个是直接买石油巨头的股票 ，如<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">$道达尔(TOT)$</a>和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">$埃克森美孚(XOM)$</a>，可是考虑到美股大盘的风险，我认为USO可以更好的跟踪油价。但我对它真实的损耗，一直弄不明白，看各路大神各种分析，但到最后都没能给出个准确的答案 - 长期持有USO的损耗到底是多少？所以我用了最笨的方法来计算它的实际损耗，如果有我没有考虑到的点，请不要犹豫的指出，大家一起讨论。 计算方法：我拉出了USO 和WTI从2008年年初到今天每天的价格，加以比较，算出USO/WTI比（因为数据太多，我从表中拉出每半年的数据方便查看）。从下图可以看到，08年年初USO/WTI比是58%，但到16年年中降到22%。这代表了什么？代表08年的时候如果油价是100元，USO价格是58元，但是到了2016年，如果油价是100元，USO的价格只有22元。按照9年平均来算，每年的损耗是10.2%。但是另一方面，从下图也可以看出，从2016年年中到今日，将近4年的时间里，USO/WTI比都稳定在20%左右区间，没有加深损耗，我觉得原因之一是因为这段时间油价的波动率与之前年份相比较小 - 换句话就是说，油价越稳","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$ 作为一个金融小白，最近想抄底石油，想长期拿住6-12个月，直到油价回暖。研究了一圈可以抄底的标的，中意的标的有两个，一个是$美国原油ETF(USO)$，一个是直接买石油巨头的股票 ，如$道达尔(TOT)$和$埃克森美孚(XOM)$，可是考虑到美股大盘的风险，我认为USO可以更好的跟踪油价。但我对它真实的损耗，一直弄不明白，看各路大神各种分析，但到最后都没能给出个准确的答案 - 长期持有USO的损耗到底是多少？所以我用了最笨的方法来计算它的实际损耗，如果有我没有考虑到的点，请不要犹豫的指出，大家一起讨论。 计算方法：我拉出了USO 和WTI从2008年年初到今天每天的价格，加以比较，算出USO/WTI比（因为数据太多，我从表中拉出每半年的数据方便查看）。从下图可以看到，08年年初USO/WTI比是58%，但到16年年中降到22%。这代表了什么？代表08年的时候如果油价是100元，USO价格是58元，但是到了2016年，如果油价是100元，USO的价格只有22元。按照9年平均来算，每年的损耗是10.2%。但是另一方面，从下图也可以看出，从2016年年中到今日，将近4年的时间里，USO/WTI比都稳定在20%左右区间，没有加深损耗，我觉得原因之一是因为这段时间油价的波动率与之前年份相比较小 - 换句话就是说，油价越稳","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b44d569e88f42c90ee68f6319aa76003"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926186796","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921620089,"gmtCreate":1586267782241,"gmtModify":1704360614754,"author":{"id":"3546977414171175","authorId":"3546977414171175","name":"赵韵文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d94ccf50fb2808b8b33be9055fb0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股的牛市是常态，熊市是短暂的…中国的熊市是常态牛市是短暂的…这反应的是中美二级市场中一个很普遍很基础的市场差异…","listText":"美股的牛市是常态，熊市是短暂的…中国的熊市是常态牛市是短暂的…这反应的是中美二级市场中一个很普遍很基础的市场差异…","text":"美股的牛市是常态，熊市是短暂的…中国的熊市是常态牛市是短暂的…这反应的是中美二级市场中一个很普遍很基础的市场差异…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921620089","repostId":"1147487657","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921870067,"gmtCreate":1586251196859,"gmtModify":1704360518936,"author":{"id":"3546977414171175","authorId":"3546977414171175","name":"赵韵文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d94ccf50fb2808b8b33be9055fb0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈","listText":"哈哈哈","text":"哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921870067","repostId":"921389724","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921102944,"gmtCreate":1586182053588,"gmtModify":1704360275035,"author":{"id":"3546977414171175","authorId":"3546977414171175","name":"赵韵文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d94ccf50fb2808b8b33be9055fb0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>瑞幸啊瑞幸，我这不争气的家伙，罔我不远万里抄底来送钱，看这交情破产前能请我喝杯咖啡么…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>瑞幸啊瑞幸，我这不争气的家伙，罔我不远万里抄底来送钱，看这交情破产前能请我喝杯咖啡么…","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$瑞幸啊瑞幸，我这不争气的家伙，罔我不远万里抄底来送钱，看这交情破产前能请我喝杯咖啡么…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921102944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964588902,"gmtCreate":1584415495806,"gmtModify":1704354032002,"author":{"id":"3546977414171175","authorId":"3546977414171175","name":"赵韵文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d94ccf50fb2808b8b33be9055fb0c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"见证历史的时刻…四次熔断，我见识了三次…","listText":"见证历史的时刻…四次熔断，我见识了三次…","text":"见证历史的时刻…四次熔断，我见识了三次…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964588902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}