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2020-10-27

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$别慌，技术性调整。

2020-05-27

老特气晕在厕所

瑞幸咖啡连续暴涨，它真的还能救活吗？

2020-04-09

马云说过:不冒险才是最大的风险。

2020-04-06

$Mr. Cooper Group Inc.(COOP)$6.08卖出

2020-04-03

$阿玛琳(AMRN)$5.66撤下的，然后就下跌。

2020-04-02

$阿玛琳(AMRN)$逆市上涨

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>的造假事件，变得更复杂了。叠加中概股信誉受损和摘牌、索赔、诉讼，以及自救，让人傻傻看不清楚。</p><p>笔者认为，穿透这些光怪陆离的新闻，看瑞幸事件其实只需两个角度，第一个是责任，第二个是价值。</p><p>瑞幸应该承担的责任，正在有条不紊地呈现出来。</p><p>5月19日晚，瑞幸咖啡向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件显示，该公司于5月15日收到了SEC上市资格部门的书面通知，纳斯达克交易所决定将瑞幸咖啡摘牌。从爆发财务造假丑闻，到纳斯达克决定将其摘牌，期间仅仅只有一个半月的时间。</p><p>但出人意料的是，瑞幸咖啡并没有如意料之中的“躺倒挨锤”，反而要求举行听证会。而在这之前，瑞幸咖啡宣布董事会和管理层改组，已终止钱治亚和刘剑的CEO和COO的职位。公司还停止了6名其他参与造假或对伪造交易知情的员工职务。</p><p>尽管可预见的继续开盘导致了瑞幸市值的进一步缩水，但这也反映出瑞幸还没有放弃自救。</p><p>法律是无情的，更多的惩罚还跟在后面，包括SEC巨额罚款，以及集体诉讼最终达成的和解金。愿赌服输是基本的觉悟，这些都是瑞幸该付出的代价，从法律意义上，笔者实在没有想到任何可为瑞幸辩解的角度。</p><p>瑞幸对于中概率最大的提示价值在于，千万不要造假，不要“速成”。仔细想想，就因为瑞幸的一念之差，除了如此广泛的负面效应外，一件本来按着时间顺序一步步走就很有可能成功的事业，在资本的压力和人心的欲望下追求速成的结果就是付出难以想象的代价，这个教训实在太深刻了。</p><p>02</p><p>功能型饮料不是原罪</p><p>在瑞幸的全部罪名中，诸多分析者认为，瑞幸把咖啡作为一种功能性饮料提供给消费者，其发展天花板十分有限，所以近乎于“庞氏骗局”。</p><p>消费常被分为炫耀型消费和功能型消费，批驳瑞幸咖啡兜售功能性饮料的观点持有者，可能认为只有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>模式（典型的地位型消费）才是咖啡唯一正确的模式。</p><p>但事实上是，人类社会基本所有的饮料，都是通过功能性消费打开市场的。</p><p>全世界最成功的饮料——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>，从最开始就是走的功能型消费的路线。十九世纪末，可口可乐被发明出来之前，法国人在葡萄酒中加入了古柯的提取物，发明了一种名为马利安尼酒的饮料，因为能显著地提神，从而成为教皇、国王和诗人们极度欢迎的新品。</p><p>随后，美国药剂师彭博顿以这种酒的无酒精版本为蓝本发明了可口可乐，也是主打“健康和提神”的路线，使得可口可乐得以风靡全世界，直到二战时期才被转化为“美国精神”的代表，从单一的功能型消费变成更为显性的文化型消费。</p><p>事实上，在瑞幸之前中国已经有无数创业者尝试咖啡创业，其中绝大多数以精品鲜煮作为特点，走“地位型”消费的路径，但失败率高达90%。</p><p>从这个角度来说，瑞幸在某种程度上正是为中国式的咖啡创业找到了新的抓手——避免和有西洋文化背景加持的竞争对手在炫耀型消费市场中对抗，反其道而行之强调（但绝非全部）咖啡的功能型价值。事实证明这样是有效的。也可以说，强调功能性不但不是瑞幸的原罪，反而是它的创新尝试。</p><p>无论成于资本也罢，败于资本也罢，瑞幸是中国咖啡行业第一个能够在体量上可以与星巴克打一场正面对攻战的创业尝试，而瑞幸也的确做到了把咖啡从社交消费、“第三空间”等传统概念中跳脱出来，融入了具有典型中国特色的新零售因子，通过自提店前置、高密度网点、大数据平台和数据化驱动等模式，很好的解决了咖啡的快速交付、网络裂变效应、整合营销、经营上的数字化洞察等等问题。</p><p>在很长一段时间里，我们很难想象咖啡行业还有规模能够超过瑞幸的创业和创新，因此理性地最大程度分析和提取这次创业中的有价值有意义的因素，而不是简单地批判了事，仍有巨大的现实意义。</p><p>03</p><p>瑞幸还能抢救一下么？</p><p>最后，我们来谈谈瑞幸的未来。</p><p>毫无疑问，瑞幸依旧身在一个充满成长性的赛道上。</p><p>《2017-2021年中国咖啡行业投资分析及前景预测报告》显示，我国咖啡消费量每年以15%-20%的幅度快递增长，而全球市场咖啡消费的平均增速只有2%。据伦敦国际咖啡组织预测，我国咖啡市场规模可达3000亿元左右，2025年有望突破一万亿。</p><p>一个值得注意的现象是，虽然已经出现了诉讼和裁员，但瑞幸总体上还没有停摆，90%的门店尚在挤兑后维持运转，某种意义上也说明，瑞幸模式足够的用户基础，还有生存和造血能力。</p><p>基于这样两个事实，笔者认为，当下最重要的是对瑞幸的全部“硬件”资产和“软件财富”进行保值增值。</p><p>所谓的硬件资产，指的是瑞幸庞大的门店、设备、网点和新零售的数字化设施等。</p><p>毫无疑问，这些资产应该从最大的程度上予以保全，否则是社会资源的极大浪费。因为，瑞幸打造的是目前中国新零售或新消费品牌最好的“物质基础”，包括移动互联网技术的大规模应用、物流设施的成熟、还有适应年轻一代消费者的崛起消费习惯的数字化整合营销体系等，这些发达的基础设施和数字系统成就了瑞幸，也给中国的新消费品牌打造提供了一个参考，它们毫无疑问是有巨大价值的。</p><p>然而，必须提及的是，这些“硬件资产”能够发挥效应的前提，是瑞幸的上万名受过训练的基层员工，他们是瑞幸体系的“软件”和“操作系统”，也是这个庞大机构得以运转的前提。</p><p>更重要的，基层员工是无辜的。哪怕从社会效益、哪怕从特殊时期保就业保稳定的角度，这上万人如果同时失业的负面效应都是极大的。这也是笔者为什么坚持瑞幸还要在合法范围内“抢救一下”的根本原因。这些珍贵的人力资源，对中国企业打造任何一个新零售巨头都是弥足珍贵的。</p><p>那么，具体该怎么抢救呢？</p><p>第一个办法，谁有本事谁来接盘。仅仅从股价而言，目前的瑞幸的股价是被严重低估的白菜价，商誉则是负值。在这种情况下，谁有能力和决心，就让谁来接盘。以一个相对有利的低价拿走，然后“去瑞幸化”式的改头换面，换旗开张。</p><p>第二种办法，我们也应该发现，从事实层面来讲，瑞幸已经更换了自己包括CEO在内的主要管理团队，这支“新人”团队从理论上来讲，也是无辜的。所以我们至少也应该在法理范围内和在道义层面上，让这个新团队至少有一个表现机会。至于，此后如何和解、赔偿、自我救赎，则全看其商业表现。</p><p>前面说过，瑞幸咖啡的快速成长，刨除其造假这个败笔，其它方面可取之处，着实不少。从这个角度上说，让瑞幸这台庞大的新零售机器，能够最大程度上保值增值，而不是被雨打风吹起，是一个相对的优选。</p><p>没错，瑞幸的自作自受给了我们一个最坏的结果。但反过来想，如果在这种局面上仍然能够自救成功，那无论是商业意义、法律意义还是精神层面，也都会给我们一个最好的交待。</p>","source":"lsy1586587218065","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞幸咖啡连续暴涨，它真的还能救活吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞幸咖啡连续暴涨，它真的还能救活吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-27 21:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-05-27/doc-iirczymk3860198.shtml><strong>创业最前线</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>深陷造假风波，面临退市听证，瑞幸股价竟然大涨涨涨了……了……5月27日，瑞幸咖啡盘初涨超40%，昨日收盘暴涨53%。目前，瑞幸市值已抬升到超7亿美元，仍然接近“独角兽”的地位。这一局面，让太多人难以置信。其实冷静下来想一想，瑞幸的管理层存在造假行为，但其公司的优质资产依然是有价值的，让它们落灰报废才是最大的损失；如果那些训练有素的员工失业，才是商业与社会意义上的双输。01不断扩大的代价瑞幸咖啡的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-05-27/doc-iirczymk3860198.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd894dfbf1f0a9ef6e0ad2be9042c8f0","relate_stocks":{"LK":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-05-27/doc-iirczymk3860198.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2038928679","content_text":"深陷造假风波，面临退市听证，瑞幸股价竟然大涨涨涨了……了……5月27日，瑞幸咖啡盘初涨超40%，昨日收盘暴涨53%。目前，瑞幸市值已抬升到超7亿美元，仍然接近“独角兽”的地位。这一局面，让太多人难以置信。其实冷静下来想一想，瑞幸的管理层存在造假行为，但其公司的优质资产依然是有价值的，让它们落灰报废才是最大的损失；如果那些训练有素的员工失业，才是商业与社会意义上的双输。01不断扩大的代价瑞幸咖啡的造假事件，变得更复杂了。叠加中概股信誉受损和摘牌、索赔、诉讼，以及自救，让人傻傻看不清楚。笔者认为，穿透这些光怪陆离的新闻，看瑞幸事件其实只需两个角度，第一个是责任，第二个是价值。瑞幸应该承担的责任，正在有条不紊地呈现出来。5月19日晚，瑞幸咖啡向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件显示，该公司于5月15日收到了SEC上市资格部门的书面通知，纳斯达克交易所决定将瑞幸咖啡摘牌。从爆发财务造假丑闻，到纳斯达克决定将其摘牌，期间仅仅只有一个半月的时间。但出人意料的是，瑞幸咖啡并没有如意料之中的“躺倒挨锤”，反而要求举行听证会。而在这之前，瑞幸咖啡宣布董事会和管理层改组，已终止钱治亚和刘剑的CEO和COO的职位。公司还停止了6名其他参与造假或对伪造交易知情的员工职务。尽管可预见的继续开盘导致了瑞幸市值的进一步缩水，但这也反映出瑞幸还没有放弃自救。法律是无情的，更多的惩罚还跟在后面，包括SEC巨额罚款，以及集体诉讼最终达成的和解金。愿赌服输是基本的觉悟，这些都是瑞幸该付出的代价，从法律意义上，笔者实在没有想到任何可为瑞幸辩解的角度。瑞幸对于中概率最大的提示价值在于，千万不要造假，不要“速成”。仔细想想，就因为瑞幸的一念之差，除了如此广泛的负面效应外，一件本来按着时间顺序一步步走就很有可能成功的事业，在资本的压力和人心的欲望下追求速成的结果就是付出难以想象的代价，这个教训实在太深刻了。02功能型饮料不是原罪在瑞幸的全部罪名中，诸多分析者认为，瑞幸把咖啡作为一种功能性饮料提供给消费者，其发展天花板十分有限，所以近乎于“庞氏骗局”。消费常被分为炫耀型消费和功能型消费，批驳瑞幸咖啡兜售功能性饮料的观点持有者，可能认为只有星巴克模式（典型的地位型消费）才是咖啡唯一正确的模式。但事实上是，人类社会基本所有的饮料，都是通过功能性消费打开市场的。全世界最成功的饮料——可口可乐，从最开始就是走的功能型消费的路线。十九世纪末，可口可乐被发明出来之前，法国人在葡萄酒中加入了古柯的提取物，发明了一种名为马利安尼酒的饮料，因为能显著地提神，从而成为教皇、国王和诗人们极度欢迎的新品。随后，美国药剂师彭博顿以这种酒的无酒精版本为蓝本发明了可口可乐，也是主打“健康和提神”的路线，使得可口可乐得以风靡全世界，直到二战时期才被转化为“美国精神”的代表，从单一的功能型消费变成更为显性的文化型消费。事实上，在瑞幸之前中国已经有无数创业者尝试咖啡创业，其中绝大多数以精品鲜煮作为特点，走“地位型”消费的路径，但失败率高达90%。从这个角度来说，瑞幸在某种程度上正是为中国式的咖啡创业找到了新的抓手——避免和有西洋文化背景加持的竞争对手在炫耀型消费市场中对抗，反其道而行之强调（但绝非全部）咖啡的功能型价值。事实证明这样是有效的。也可以说，强调功能性不但不是瑞幸的原罪，反而是它的创新尝试。无论成于资本也罢，败于资本也罢，瑞幸是中国咖啡行业第一个能够在体量上可以与星巴克打一场正面对攻战的创业尝试，而瑞幸也的确做到了把咖啡从社交消费、“第三空间”等传统概念中跳脱出来，融入了具有典型中国特色的新零售因子，通过自提店前置、高密度网点、大数据平台和数据化驱动等模式，很好的解决了咖啡的快速交付、网络裂变效应、整合营销、经营上的数字化洞察等等问题。在很长一段时间里，我们很难想象咖啡行业还有规模能够超过瑞幸的创业和创新，因此理性地最大程度分析和提取这次创业中的有价值有意义的因素，而不是简单地批判了事，仍有巨大的现实意义。03瑞幸还能抢救一下么？最后，我们来谈谈瑞幸的未来。毫无疑问，瑞幸依旧身在一个充满成长性的赛道上。《2017-2021年中国咖啡行业投资分析及前景预测报告》显示，我国咖啡消费量每年以15%-20%的幅度快递增长，而全球市场咖啡消费的平均增速只有2%。据伦敦国际咖啡组织预测，我国咖啡市场规模可达3000亿元左右，2025年有望突破一万亿。一个值得注意的现象是，虽然已经出现了诉讼和裁员，但瑞幸总体上还没有停摆，90%的门店尚在挤兑后维持运转，某种意义上也说明，瑞幸模式足够的用户基础，还有生存和造血能力。基于这样两个事实，笔者认为，当下最重要的是对瑞幸的全部“硬件”资产和“软件财富”进行保值增值。所谓的硬件资产，指的是瑞幸庞大的门店、设备、网点和新零售的数字化设施等。毫无疑问，这些资产应该从最大的程度上予以保全，否则是社会资源的极大浪费。因为，瑞幸打造的是目前中国新零售或新消费品牌最好的“物质基础”，包括移动互联网技术的大规模应用、物流设施的成熟、还有适应年轻一代消费者的崛起消费习惯的数字化整合营销体系等，这些发达的基础设施和数字系统成就了瑞幸，也给中国的新消费品牌打造提供了一个参考，它们毫无疑问是有巨大价值的。然而，必须提及的是，这些“硬件资产”能够发挥效应的前提，是瑞幸的上万名受过训练的基层员工，他们是瑞幸体系的“软件”和“操作系统”，也是这个庞大机构得以运转的前提。更重要的，基层员工是无辜的。哪怕从社会效益、哪怕从特殊时期保就业保稳定的角度，这上万人如果同时失业的负面效应都是极大的。这也是笔者为什么坚持瑞幸还要在合法范围内“抢救一下”的根本原因。这些珍贵的人力资源，对中国企业打造任何一个新零售巨头都是弥足珍贵的。那么，具体该怎么抢救呢？第一个办法，谁有本事谁来接盘。仅仅从股价而言，目前的瑞幸的股价是被严重低估的白菜价，商誉则是负值。在这种情况下，谁有能力和决心，就让谁来接盘。以一个相对有利的低价拿走，然后“去瑞幸化”式的改头换面，换旗开张。第二种办法，我们也应该发现，从事实层面来讲，瑞幸已经更换了自己包括CEO在内的主要管理团队，这支“新人”团队从理论上来讲，也是无辜的。所以我们至少也应该在法理范围内和在道义层面上，让这个新团队至少有一个表现机会。至于，此后如何和解、赔偿、自我救赎，则全看其商业表现。前面说过，瑞幸咖啡的快速成长，刨除其造假这个败笔，其它方面可取之处，着实不少。从这个角度上说，让瑞幸这台庞大的新零售机器，能够最大程度上保值增值，而不是被雨打风吹起，是一个相对的优选。没错，瑞幸的自作自受给了我们一个最坏的结果。但反过来想，如果在这种局面上仍然能够自救成功，那无论是商业意义、法律意义还是精神层面，也都会给我们一个最好的交待。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928390088,"gmtCreate":1586446279144,"gmtModify":1704361480245,"author":{"id":"3546905790041204","authorId":"3546905790041204","name":"燚犇","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马云说过:不冒险才是最大的风险。","listText":"马云说过:不冒险才是最大的风险。","text":"马云说过:不冒险才是最大的风险。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78bd83640d38f9e4478059d03eb3d3a3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928390088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921346994,"gmtCreate":1586180634518,"gmtModify":1704360248160,"author":{"id":"3546905790041204","authorId":"3546905790041204","name":"燚犇","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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